Uncertainty Quantification

Also known as UQ

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44 papers in the last four weeks, up 110% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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  1. Uncertainty of Vision Medical Foundation Models

    Aug 31, 2026Haoxu Huang, Narges RazavianMedical Imaging Foundation ModelsUncertainty Quantification

    Center for Data Science, New York University · Department of Radiology, NYU Grossman School of Medicine · Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine

  2. A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

    Aug 30, 2026Kehan Long, Yiqi Zhao, Pol Mestres +3Distribution Shift RobustnessUncertainty Quantification

    Contextual Robotics Institute, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA · Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA +1

  3. Across-Design Uncertainty in Short Pricing Panels: Inference and Identification

    Aug 21, 2026Pedro Cadahia DelgadoCausal Effect EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    PhD, Universidad de Huelva, Spain

  4. Reliability analysis for BraTS-GoAT segmentation: a controlled robustness study of deep-ensemble uncertainty

    Aug 13, 2026Riya Deepak Shet, Le ZhangUncertainty QuantificationNeural Network Robustness

    Department of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom · Department of Electronic, Electrical and Systems Engineering, School of Engineering, College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  5. Structure-preserving uncertainty quantification for GENERIC dynamics

    Aug 12, 2026Zequn He, Celia ReinaDynamical SystemsUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, 19104, PA, United States of America

  6. Evaluating and Calibrating Diffusion Model-derived Uncertainty for Quantitative MRI Mapping

    Aug 12, 2026Shishuai Wang, Stefan Klein, Juan A. Hernandez-Tamames +1Uncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands · Department of Imaging Physics, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands

  7. Forward and Inverse Virtual Metrology for Phototransistor Gain: A Hierarchical, Uncertainty-Aware Approach for Small Production Datasets

    Aug 12, 2026Mahshid Amirabgir, Lorenza Ferrario, Paolo Conci +2Uncertainty QuantificationSemiconductor Manufacturing

    Micro Nano Facility (MNF), Center for Sensors and Devices, Fondazione Bruno Kessler (FBK), Via Sommarive 18, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy. · Microfab Solutions, Via Sommarive 18, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy. · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (DICA), Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, Milan, 20133, Italy. +1

  8. A Local Sinkhorn Framework for Conditional Distribution Reconstruction of Multidimensional Random Fields

    Aug 12, 2026Mingtao Xia, Qijing ShenUncertainty QuantificationConditional Distribution Estimation

    School of Mathematics, University of Birmingham, Watson Building, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom · Department of Mathematics, University of Houston, 3551 Cullen Blvd, Houston, 77204, Texas, United States · Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom, Old Road Campus, Oxford, OX3 7BN, United Kingdom

  9. Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Genomics Applications: Insights from an Empirical Study

    Aug 11, 2026Sepideh Saran, Mahsa Ghanbari, Uwe OhlerBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    The Berlin Institute for Medical Systems Biology, Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine, Germany · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Germany · Department of Biology, Humboldt University of Berlin, Germany +1

  10. VIDS-Seg: Towards Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Pediatric Cardiac Ultrasound Segmentation

    Aug 11, 2026Paul Fischer, Ece OzkanUltrasound Image SegmentationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland

  11. Sensor-Informed Per-Point Covariance for Structured-Light 3D Imaging

    Aug 11, 2026Sehoon Tak, Jae-Sang HyunFringe Projection ProfilometryUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, South Korea

  12. Whisper-Aware LLM: Self-Supervised Uncertainty Learning for Robust Whispered Speech Recognition

    Aug 11, 2026Gaopeng Xu, Zhenyu Wang, Zheng Xue +2Uncertainty QuantificationAutomatic Speech Recognition

    Qwen Business Unit of Alibaba, China

  13. Structure-Preserving Uncertainty Propagation in First-Order Proof Search

    Aug 10, 2026Tanel TammetProbabilistic LogicLogical Reasoning

    Tallinn University of Technology

  14. Two-Step MV-DeepONet: Probabilistic Operator Learning for Uncertainty Propagation Driven by Random Input Fields

    Aug 10, 2026Yupei Nie, Lei Wang, Jiasen LiuUncertainty QuantificationPDE Surrogate Modeling

    School of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P.R. China · School of Energy Power and Mechanical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P.R. China

  15. Dynamic Distribution-Aware Uncertainty Tracking in Vision-Language Representation Learning

    Aug 10, 2026Ao Zhou, Zhiwei Jiang, Zifeng Cheng +4Uncertainty Quantification

    State Key Laboratory of Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University

  16. CUPA-T2*: Covariance-Aware Uncertainty Propagation and Alignment for T2* Mapping in Accelerated MRI

    Aug 9, 2026Gideon N. L. Rouwendaal, Natascha Niessen, Hannah Eichhorn +3Uncertainty QuantificationHeteroscedastic Regression

    Institute of Machine Learning in Biomedical Imaging, Helmholtz Munich, Germany · School of Computation, Information & Technology, Technical University of Munich, Germany · GE HealthCare, Munich, Germany +6

  17. Estimating Uncertainty in Galaxy Morphology Classification

    Aug 9, 2026Kai Cheng, Ruoqi Wang, Qiong LuoUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Decomposition

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China

  18. From Uncertainty to Failure Attribution: Self-Diagnosing Models for Failure Attribution under Distribution Shift

    Aug 8, 2026Yiyao YangDistribution Shift RobustnessUncertainty Quantification

    Columbia University

  19. Conformal Coverage Guarantees for Any Video Temporal Grounder

    Aug 7, 2026Aseel Mohamed, Rasul Khanbayov, Erchin Serpedin +1Temporal Video GroundingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University at Qatar, Doha, Qatar · College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar · Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA

  20. Tracing sources of epistemic uncertainty in deep learning predictions: homo- and hetero-scedastic linearized estimators

    Aug 7, 2026Pierre Nodet, Thomas GeorgeUncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    Orange Research, Châtillon, France

  21. Online Conformal Prediction Beyond Feedback

    Aug 7, 2026Joar Skalse, Edoardo Pona, Osvaldo Simeone +1Uncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    King’s College London · Northeastern University London

  22. UQ-Loc: Uncertainty-Aware LiDAR Scene Coordinate Regression

    Aug 6, 2026Jacek KomorowskiUncertainty QuantificationLiDAR Localization

    Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

  23. A Ground-Truth Framework for Uncertainty Disentanglement with Posterior Risk

    Aug 6, 2026Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler +2Uncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · Hertie Institute for AI in Brain Health, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Berlin, Berlin, Germany +2

  24. Uncertainty-Aware World Model for Aerial Image-Goal Navigation

    Aug 6, 2026Deyi Zhu, Haoyu Fan, Yinan Zhu +4Uncertainty QuantificationWorld Models for Robotics

    Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University

  25. Hybrid Probabilistic Zonotopes for Identifiable and Refinable Predictive Uncertainty

    Aug 5, 2026Zhen Zhang, Amr AlanwarUncertainty QuantificationProbabilistic Forecasting

    School of Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich, Germany

  26. Stochastic Emulation using Generalized Stratified Sampling for Performance-Based Risk Optimization of Structures

    Aug 5, 2026Isabela D. Rodrigues, Seymour M. J. Spence, Henrique M. Kroetz +1Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Structural Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, 13566-590, São Paulo, Brazil · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109, Michigan, USA · Center for Marine Studies, Federal University of Paraná, Pontal do Paraná, 13566-590, Paraná, Brazil

  27. Quality Diversity for Reliable Data Driven Time-Use Optimization

    Aug 5, 2026Aneta Neumann, Ty Stanford, Dorothea Dumuid +1Uncertainty QuantificationQuality-Diversity Optimization

    Optimisation and Logistics School of Computer and Mathematical Sciences Adelaide University Adelaide, Australia · School of Allied Health and Human Performance Adelaide University Adelaide, Australia

  28. Real-time probabilistic tsunami forecasting via generative AI

    Aug 5, 2026Yusuke Oishi, Takashi Furumura, Fumihiko ImamuraUncertainty QuantificationProbabilistic Forecasting

    Fujitsu Research, Fujitsu Limited, Kawasaki, Japan. · Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. · International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.

  29. UHP Detection: LVLMs have their Unique Hallucination Pattern in the Consistency Space

    Aug 4, 2026Amir Mohammad Ezzati, Kiyan Rezaee, Bardiya Kariminia +4Hallucination Detection in VLMsVision-Language Models

    Sharif University of Technology · Michigan State University · Shahid Beheshti University +2

  30. Adaptive Modality Reliability Diagnosis and Restoration for Robust Multimodal Intent Recognition

    Aug 4, 2026Suraj Kumar, Mohnish Raj, Soumi Chattopadhayay +2Missing-Modality LearningUncertainty Quantification

  31. Conformal risk control for model-form uncertainty in parametric non-intrusive reduced-order models

    Aug 4, 2026Edgar Jaber, Rémy Vallot, Thibault Dairay +1Uncertainty QuantificationPDE Surrogate Modeling

    CB, ENS Paris Saclay · Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, ENS Paris-Saclay, Centre Borelli, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91190, France · CB, Michelin +3

  32. Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Art

    Aug 3, 2026Tirtho Roy, Ushashi Bhattacharjee, Showrav Kumar Saha +3Uncertainty QuantificationVideo Generation Evaluation

    1Iowa State University · 2Independent Researcher · University of Dhaka

  33. Private Generative Bootstrap via Blocking

    Aug 3, 2026Jinwon Sohn, Veronika RočkováSimulation-Based InferenceUncertainty Quantification

    Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

  34. Certifying Plans under Model Mismatch: A Trilemma for Reachability from Scarce Data

    Aug 3, 2026Yanliang Huang, Zhen Zhang, Ahmad Hafez +4Reachability AnalysisUncertainty Quantification

    School of Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany · School of Engineering, Hainan Bielefeld University of Applied Sciences, Hainan, China

  35. Can Training Logs Make Model Comparisons More Precise?

    Aug 3, 2026Wei-Jung HuangPairwise ComparisonUncertainty Quantification

    Independent Researcher.

  36. Constrained Co-Design for Photonic Bayesian Neural Networks

    Aug 3, 2026Hendrik Borras, Xiao Wang, Bernhard Klein +4Bayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Hardware and Artificial Intelligence Lab, Institute of Computer Engineering, Heidelberg University, Germany · Neuromorphic Quantumphotonics Kirchhoff-Institute for Physics, Heidelberg University, Germany

  37. Deep Evidential Regression for Sparse Forest Height Estimation from Multimodal Satellite Imagery

    Aug 3, 2026Laura Bader, Muhammad Ammar Ahmed, Xiao Xiang Zhu +1Remote Sensing Image UnderstandingEvidential Deep Learning

    LMU Munich, 80539 Munich, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · TU Munich, 80333 Munich

  38. Finite-Probe Total-Variation Certificates for Finite-Basis Drifting Models

    Aug 3, 2026Sam Andersson, Ricky MolénUncertainty QuantificationDrifting Models

    Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden · Department of Computational Science and Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

  39. DynActiveGS: Active Gaussian Splatting for Dynamic Scene Reconstruction

    Aug 2, 2026Hongbo Duan, Pengting Luo, Chengzhi Zhao +33D Gaussian SplattingNext-Best-View Planning

    Tsinghua University, Shenzhen International Graduate School Shenzhen, Guangdong, China · Huawei Technologies Ltd Shenzhen, Guangdong, China · Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen Shenzhen, Guangdong, China +1

  40. EulerLoRA: Rank-Driven Jump Dynamics for Calibrated Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning

    Aug 2, 2026Srinivas Anumasa, Dianbo LiuUncertainty QuantificationLow-Rank Adaptation

    National University of Singapore

  41. Round-Trip Consistency: Bidirectional Diffusion Models Can Predict Their Own Rollout Errors

    Aug 1, 2026Alexander ScheinkerUncertainty QuantificationLatent Diffusion Models

    Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM, 87544, USA

  42. Uncertainty-guided active learning for surrogate prediction of stream-finishing wear fields

    Aug 1, 2026Anand Kumar, Puli Saikiran, Vineet Dawara +1Neural Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Dept. of Design & Manufacturing, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore · Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore

  43. Why Does the Future Branch? Identifiable Closure Tests for Stochastic Physical World Models

    Aug 1, 2026Yibin DongUncertainty QuantificationWorld Models

    Shandong University

  44. SymboUQ: Symbolic Uncertainty Quantification for Spatial Reasoning in LLMs

    Aug 1, 2026Dahai Yu, Lin Jiang, Rongchao Xu +1Uncertainty QuantificationLLM Reliability

    Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

  45. Analytical and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals of Double Machine Learning: Simulation studies and an application to rural-urban difference in obesity prevalence

    Jul 31, 2026Haozheng Xu, Siyuan Ma, Qingyan XiangDouble MLCausal Effect Estimation

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center

  46. Structured Neural Chaos: An Adaptive Surrogate Modeling Framework for Functional Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Jul 31, 2026Isabel Corona Guevara, Yeping HuNeural Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, 80204, CO, USA · Computational Engineering Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, 94550, CA, USA

  47. Uncertainty quantification for trustworthy deep learning: Methods and measures

    Jul 30, 2026H. Martin Gillis, Thomas TrappenbergBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Faculty of Computer Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

  48. From Keypoints to Predictive Distributions: Post-Hoc Uncertainty for YOLO-Pose Models

    Jul 29, 2026Alexej Klushyn, Juan Rivero Sesma, Florian Seligmann +3Post-Hoc CalibrationUncertainty Quantification

    Airbus Central Research & Technology · Airbus Commercial Aircraft · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology +2

  49. MetaKoopman: Bayesian Meta-Learning of Koopman Operators for Modeling Structured Dynamics under Distribution Shifts

    Jul 28, 2026Mahmoud Selim, Sriharsha Bhat, Karl H. JohanssonUncertainty QuantificationKoopman Operator Learning

    TRATON · KTH Royal Institute of Technology

  50. Runtime Uncertainty Monitoring for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems Using Bayesian Networks

    Jul 28, 2026Bart Custers, Koorosh AslansefatMulti-Agent LLM SystemsUncertainty Quantification

    University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK

  51. Guiding Posterior Exploration with Optimizer-Derived Geometry

    Jul 28, 2026Moritz Schlager, Emanuel Sommer, Thomas Möllenhoff +1Bayesian Neural NetworksMarkov Chain Monte Carlo

    TUM, MCML · LMU Munich, MCML · RIKEN AIP

  52. Covariance Last-Layer Ensembles: Function-Space Diversity for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification

    Jul 26, 2026H. Martin Gillis, Isaac Xu, Gabriel Spadon +1Uncertainty QuantificationEnsemble Learning

    Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

  53. Multimodal Auto-regressive Transformer Surrogate for Modeling Variable Operations and Quantifying Uncertainty in Geological Carbon Storage

    Jul 26, 2026Yifu Han, Louis J. DurlofskyNeural Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Energy Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA

  54. Characterisation of Density-based FM generation methods in the context of Information Fusion

    Jul 25, 2026Yanhao Huang, Christian WagnerUncertainty QuantificationFuzzy Logic

    Lab for Uncertainty in Data and Decision Making (LUCID) School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham Nottingham, United Kingdom

  55. Covariance-Boosted Gaussian Processes for Spatiotemporal Irregularities

    Jul 25, 2026Jeremy OvadiaUncertainty QuantificationGaussian Processes

    Sequoia Research Corporation 2875 Temple Ave Signal Hill, CA, 90755, USA

  56. FMOPF: Latent Flow Matching with Constraint-Aware Interaction Priors for AC Optimal Power Flow

    Jul 24, 2026Zhilin HuangConstrained Generative ModelingFlow Matching

    China Southern Power Dispatching and Control Center, China Southern Power Grid

  57. Deep Sigma Point Processes for RCS Modeling in Spaceborne SAR Imagery

    Jul 23, 2026Khalid El-Darymli, Christoph H. Gierull, Katerina Biron +1Uncertainty QuantificationSynthetic Aperture Radar

    Defence Research and Development Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · Memorial University, St. John’s, NL, Canada

  58. Priors learned from legacy reconstructions inherit undetectable overconfidence

    Jul 23, 2026Ali Siahkoohi, Sina AlemohammadUncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inverse Problems

    Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA

  59. Neural Feature Governance: Extending Atom Prevalence

    Jul 23, 2026Idris Karel Seunda Ekwe, Patrick Tenga Shako, Ernest Parfait FokouéBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Cameroon · Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT), US

  60. Adaptive Confidence-weighted Expansion for Trustworthy Multi-Omics Multimodal Fusion

    Jul 22, 2026Mohammad Raahemi, Ali Sekhavati, Alireza Maleki +1Probability CalibrationUncertainty Quantification

    Faculty of Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa ON K1N 1A2, Canada · RIV Lab, Department of Computer Engineering, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran · School of Computing and Communications, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK