Agent-Based Modeling

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18 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 109

Jul 28, 2026cs.MA

CoRenew: A large language model agent-based policy simulation platform for multifamily residential redevelopment

The difficulty of collective action remains a central challenge in the design of policies for multifamily residential redevelopment. Stakeholders continually adjust their decisions in response to evolving negotiation contexts and the reactions of others, meaning that when a policy intervenes and which stakeholders it targets can substantially reshape collective outcomes. Assessing these adaptive responses ex ante remains difficult because existing simulation models often rely on predefined behavioral rules. Here, we present CoRenew, an open-source platform that uses LLM-based agents to simulate negotiations among multiple stakeholders and evaluate the effects of alternative policy combinations. Integrating open source geographic and demographic data, the platform can generate synthetic residents, simulate negotiation dynamics under alternative policy settings and compares policy performance across competing objectives. It supports both numerical and semantic policy inputs and includes built-in tools for visualization and result export. We validate its behavioral realism against survey responses from 324 residents and a nine-month observed negotiation process from a real redevelopment case. With its modular and adaptable architecture, CoRenew can be used to assess policies across different institutional and cultural contexts.

Yudi Zhang, Yuming Lin, Li Tian +2

Department of Urban Planning, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China · Department of City and Regional Planning, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA · Department of Electronic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Multi-Agent Negotiation Automated Negotiation Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling

Jul 27, 2026cs.AI

How Affect Propagates among LLM Agents: Emergent Emotional Contagion in Crowd Simulation

This paper studies the behavior of language models in a multi-agent crowd simulation, focusing on how affect propagates among agents that perceive and appraise one another. Each agent perceives its neighbors through visual, auditory, and tactile channels, then appraises these perceptions in light of its prompted personality profile, memory, current affective state, and situational context. Appraisal is carried out by an LLM, which updates the agent's internal affective state and selects its outward expression. The architecture contains no hand-authored mechanism for directly transferring affective state between agents; instead, inter-agent influence arises through the perception-appraisal-expression loop. The agent representation draws on the Big Five personality model and Russell's circumplex model of affect. To limit latency, low-level steering and navigation are handled by a conventional crowd simulator operating independently of the LLM-based cognitive layer. We evaluate the architecture across five scenario environments spanning alarming, joyful, and neutral situations in different spatial layouts. The results show that the system produces emotional contagion dynamics with spatial, temporal, and personality-dependent structure in sparse, small crowds. Alarm spreads from seeded agents as a traveling front, the mean alarmed fraction settles at a nonzero plateau, and the distribution of prompted personality profiles determines whether an ambiguous alarm ignites panic and whether a provocation is interpreted as anger or fear. We further evaluate the appraisal step through controlled experiments across prompt variants, sampling temperatures, and four model backends, showing that the dynamics are backend-dependent.

Funda Durupinar

Computer Science Department University of Massachusetts Boston, MA 02125

Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling Emotion Representation in Language Models Multi-Agent LLMs

Jul 20, 2026cs.AI

Towards Agentic Agent-based Models: Feasibility, Performance, and Statistical Model Checking

Agent-based models (ABMs) rely on simple, explicit and reproducible rules for individual decision making, while complex collective behavior emerges from interactions among agents. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) make it tempting to replace, enrich, or perturb these rules with LLM-based agentic capabilities. However, this raises a methodological question: how does introducing LLM-driven decisions affect the reliability, computational cost, and behavior of ABM simulations? We investigate this for Mesa ABM models, a popular Python library for ABMs, analyzed by statistical model checking. Building on Mesa's integration with the statistical model checker MultiVeStA, we extend the classical Schelling segregation model with a hybrid population: ordinary agents classify neighbors using the standard symbolic rule, while one agent delegates this task to an LLM through tool calls. The LLM-enabled agent receives natural-language descriptions of neighboring agents and invokes tools that increment counters of similar/different neighbors; these counters determine its happiness according to the original Schelling dynamics. This provides a minimal but controlled setting where the semantic, operational, and computational behavior of LLM-based decisions can be studied inside an otherwise standard ABM. We report preliminary experiments with locally served LLMs of different sizes, showing that smaller models may fail simple semantic classification experiments or become operationally unusable during repeated tool-call generation, while larger tested models pass these preliminary checks. We discuss how statistical model checking can estimate classical ABM observables and quantify the impact of introducing agentic LLM components into simulation models.

Stefano Blando, Emanuele Guerrazzi, Riccardo Porcedda +3

Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies Pisa, Italy · University of Pisa, Italy · CentraleSupélec, Université Paris-Saclay, France +2

Agent-Based Modeling LLM Agents LLM Agent Reliability

Jul 19, 2026cs.AI

Empirical Grounding Improves the Realism of LLM Agents Simulating Human Behavior During Disruptions

Large language model (LLM) agents offer a generative approach to simulating human behavior under conditions that may have few or no direct historical analogues, a common challenge in disaster and infrastructure-disruption planning. However, this generative capacity creates a validity problem: individually plausible agent reasoning may fail to reproduce empirical population behavior. We evaluate whether empirical grounding improves the statistical realism of LLM-agent simulations during disruptions. Specifically, we develop an empirically grounded LLM-agent framework that embeds demographic profiles from the American Community Survey, baseline routines from the American Time Use Survey, and urban spatial context into agent initialization, memory, decision prompts, and activity execution. An independent household survey conducted during the July 2024 Philadelphia heatwave is reserved as an external validation benchmark. Compared with an ungrounded LLM-agent baseline, the grounded model improved reconstruction of normal daily routines, increasing mean correlation with empirical activity profiles from 0.528 to 0.912 and reducing mean squared error from 0.066 to 0.008. Under heatwave conditions, the grounded model better reproduced survey-derived activity profiles, increasing mean correlation from 0.349 to 0.836 and reducing mean squared error from 0.098 to 0.012. The grounded model captured 46.4% of observed heatwave response amplitude, compared with 20.6% for the ungrounded baseline. These findings show that empirical grounding can make LLM agents more statistically credible simulators of population behavior while revealing remaining gaps in modeling human adaptation during disruptions.

Chen Xia, Zexi Kuang, Yuqing Hu

Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Environmental Management and Safety, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY 14623, United States of America · Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States of America · Digital and Interdependent Built Environment Laboratory, Department of Architectural Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States of America

LLM Grounding Human Behavior Simulation LLM Agent Evaluation Disaster Response Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

Jul 19, 2026cs.AI

Poor Man's Agentic Modeling: Simulating Large LLM-Agent Societies on a Laptop

Simulating societies of many large language model (LLM) agents is expensive, yet the questions asked of such simulations are usually macroscopic: phase behaviour, stylised facts, and scaling with the number of agents

N

, not the cognition of any single agent. We turn a statistical-physics observation into a method: replace each LLM agent by a low-parameter model fitted from a few hundred to a few thousand cheap queries, then run the society at any

N

on a laptop. Whether this works is decided before the simulation runs, chiefly by what each agent perceives. We introduce an [interaction order x memory] taxonomy that maps perception and memory to an effective theory and a predicted

N

-trend of the surrogate error. We validate it on a faithful reimplementation of the LLM macroeconomy EconAgent and seven further named LLM simulations, with agent decisions cloned from genuine LLM elicitations (primarily DeepSeek) for a few dollars; the predicted error trends hold cell by cell, and the two refuted predictions, both on a strongly saturating response and traced to its curvature, are themselves matched quantitatively by the theory with no free parameters.

Igor Itkin

Independent Researcher, Tel Aviv, Israel

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Surrogate Modeling Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

Jul 16, 2026cs.MA

The Energy Society: A Simulation Environment for Studying Agent Cooperation under Survival Pressure

LLM-based agents are increasingly deployed in multi-agent environments whose incentives can shape their behavior. We introduce The Energy Society, a minimal survival economy for studying how competitive and cooperative incentives affect emergent behavior when inference cost is directly tied to survival: Agents spend energy based on model size when generating tokens, regain energy by completing jobs or receiving donations, and deactivate if their energy reaches zero. We compare competitive and cooperative objectives against a baseline setting and several control variants. Across experiments, larger models consistently consume the most energy and spend more energy than they gain, even in those settings where token cost is not size-dependent. Cooperative incentives substantially alter behavior: agents donate to reactivate others, sometimes at the cost of their own survival, and job allocation changes. Ablations reveal that allowing agents to recommend actions to each other supports coordination and ambitious job selection, while memory helps agents calibrate risk from past outcomes. Agents rarely choose direct sabotage, but show more subtle signs of self-serving behavior in the competitive setting. The Energy Society is a compact testbed for studying the interaction between token costs and group incentives under a survival pressure. Source code is available at https://github.com/LucasBergholdt/EnergySociety

Lucas Bergholdt Hansen, Federico Torrielli, Filippo Tonini +1

University of Southern Denmark Odense, Denmark · University of Turin Torino, Italy

Social Dilemmas Multi-Agent Coordination Multi-Agent Collaboration Agent-Based Modeling Multi-Agent Systems Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent Systems

Jul 15, 2026cs.MA

Social Simulations: from Agent-Based Modeling to Digital Twins

This book chapter covers the evolution of social simulation from classical agent-based models, in which agents interact according to explicitly defined behavioral rules, to AI-enhanced simulations based on Large Language Models and, ultimately, Social Digital Twins: high-fidelity, data-driven representations of real-world socio-technical systems. Along this trajectory, we discuss the main methodological foundations, applications, advantages, and limitations of each paradigm, highlighting the progressive shift from abstract models designed to investigate general social mechanisms toward increasingly realistic computational representations of specific social systems.

Erica Cau, Andrea Failla, Valentina Pansanella +1

Department of Computer Science, University of Pisa · ISTI-CNR

Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation Digital Twins

Jul 13, 2026cs.CL

CityBehavEx: A Scalable and Empirically Validated LLM-Assisted Urban Simulation Platform

Recent LLM-based multi-agent urban simulators can generate semantically rich city routines, but they remain costly to scale and are often weakly validated against empirical mobility patterns. We present CityBehavEx, an interactive LLM-assisted urban simulation platform that scales to city-size populations, exposes agent behavior for inspection, supports empirical validation, and generates mobility patterns that better match real-world spatial, temporal, and semantic distributions. Instead of invoking large language models for every agent action, CityBehavEx combines established human mobility models with fine-tuned cross-encoders that estimate semantic alignment between agent profiles, schedules, and activity transitions. This design enables large-scale simulations, as demonstrated in a case study of 100,000 agents over 75 days in under one hour on a single consumer GPU. The platform allows users to define simulation regions, launch experiments, inspect trajectories and activity traces, debug unrealistic behaviors, and validate generated routines against real-world mobility, time-use, and semantic metrics.

Gustavo H. Santos, Aline Viana, Thiago H Silva

UTFPR, Brazil · Inria, France · University of Toronto, Canada

Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

Jul 8, 2026cs.MA

A Large Language Model-Driven Agent-Based Modeling Framework with Multi-Round Communication for Simulating Vaccine Opinion Dynamics

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have been utilized in various applications of computational social science and provide the possibility to integrate such models into agent-based modeling to explore the cognitive processes. However, how specific cognitive modules drive individual decisions and macro-level opinion dynamics remains unclear. Therefore, this study introduces a framework that integrates an LLM (Qwen3-8B) into agent-based modeling to investigate this problem, using vaccination opinion dynamics as a case study. We utilize this framework to simulate opinion dynamics among agents with heterogeneous profiles and social networks, evaluating scenarios by enabling different cognitive modules: a memory module and a prompt diversity module. The simulation results reveal that different cognitive modules have opposite impacts on our emergent opinion. Furthermore, the framework reproduces the non-linear behavior patterns of social influence observed in existing research, demonstrating our framework's validity and potential to reach the level 3 validation of agent-based models.

Bo Zhang, Na Jiang

Thrust of Urban Governance and Design, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) Guangzhou, Guangdong, CHINA · Jinhe Center for Economic Research, Xi’an Jiaotong University Xi’an, Shaanxi, CHINA

Opinion Dynamics Cognitive Modeling Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation Multi-Agent LLMs Memory-Augmented Agents

Jul 7, 2026cs.AI

LLM-powered reasoning in agent-based modeling

Agent-based modeling (ABM) has the capability to model millions of individuals and their interactions, which is useful for policy making. However, ABMs have traditionally relied on static prior, which prevents the models from adapting to real-time changes. Our research provides a novel approach to addressing this information gap. Large language models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to predict human decision-making. Here, we introduce a scalable Hybrid Agent-based and Language-driven Epidemic (HALE) modeling framework that leverages LLMs to predict human decision-making in an ABM simulation. As a proof-of-concept, we use HALE to simulate COVID-19 and its effects in Salt Lake County, UT.

Sifat Afroj Moon, Dakotah Maguire, Adam Spannaus +5

Oak Ridge National Laboratory · Computational Science and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA · Geospatial Science and Human Security Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA +1

Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

Jul 7, 2026cs.CL

From Blueprint to Reality: Modeling and Applying Putnam's Social Capital Theory with LLM-based Multi-agent Simulations

Putnam's Social Capital Theory is a foundational framework for collective action and community prosperity. However, traditional empirical methods face practical limits on control and replication. Meanwhile, LLM-based social simulations are typically behavior-driven and lack theory-aligned environments for modeling Putnam's core propositions. To address these gaps, we introduce SocaSim, an LLM-based multi-agent simulation framework to study Putnam's Social Capital Theory from theoretical blueprint to simulated reality. Specifically, we build an environment integrating social network evolution, trust dynamics, and norm propagation, where agents engage in repeated collective-action experiments, and then apply the three dimensions to analyze adaptation challenges in smart elderly care. Our simulations reproduce Putnam's macro-level patterns and exhibit strong human-agent alignment at the group level. Unlike traditional methods, SocaSim traces micro-level causal pathways of social network, trust, and norms via round-by-round simulations and counterfactual interventions, enabling process-level interpretability. Taken together, these capabilities establish a research paradigm that leverages LLM agents to bridge social science and computer science.

Shiyi Ling, Zhi Zheng, Hui Zheng +3

State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Intelligence, University of Science and Technology of China · Anhui University · North Automatic Control Technology Institute +1

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling

Jul 7, 2026cs.AI

Information Limits and Attractor Dynamics in Economies of Frontier LLM Agents: A Pre-Registered Test

We report a pre-registered, two-part experiment on small economies of frontier language-model agents (Claude Opus 4.8), testing two quantitative predictions about coupled multi-agent systems: an information-theoretic capacity region for wealth growth under market coupling, and a mean-field residual-scaling law for population misalignment under incentive and control levers. All predictions, acceptance bands, and decision rules were frozen in a public git chain before any run; every reported number re-derives mechanically from cached model outputs; the entire experiment cost $138.76 in metered API spend and is re-runnable at zero cost from the cache. Result 1 (confirmation): in parimutuel-coupled economies, relative growth equals relative claimed information -- the gap law G_a - G_b = I_a - I_b holds to a worst-case 46 millinats (pre-registered band: 50) across four perception structures; coalition value is submodular exactly where channels are conditionally independent, and a designed XOR synergy control flips it supermodular by 0.62 >= ln2/2 nats, with agents reasoning out the joint bit; the joint growth ceiling G_S <= H(X) binds exactly; and the best-informed agent absorbs essentially the whole wealth pool in 4/5 market seeds. Result 2 (structural negative): the residual-scaling test returned "domain not found." In all 72 population runs, goal dispersion collapsed (V -> 0; maximum 4.85 against a frozen floor of 5.31), the population's response to the two levers was a step function across the dominance boundary rather than a smooth response, and cells near the boundary were bistable with seed-selected outcomes. No tested LLM population at any capability level realizes the noise-maintained-dispersion regime the smooth mean-field model assumes. We release the full protocol, pre-registration chain, call cache, and analysis code.

Cheng Qian

Independent Researcher

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Value of Information Agent-Based Modeling Mutual Information Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent Systems

Jul 7, 2026cs.AI

AgoraSim: A Hybrid Agent-Based Modeling Framework

LLM-agent simulations make natural-language social scenarios easy to instantiate, but their outputs can be overread as predictions and are often difficult to compare with explicit social dynamics. We present AgoraSim, a hybrid agent-based modeling framework for scenario-oriented social reaction analysis. AgoraSim resolves textual or multimodal artifacts into editable ABM configurations, runs ratio-controlled populations that mix LLM, vision-language, custom-endpoint, random, and classical agents, and compares the same scenario against matched classical reference dynamics. All agents emit a shared structured decision object, enabling common action spaces, interaction protocols, metrics, and audit records. Exposed through a local UI, Python SDK/CLI, and REST API, AgoraSim helps users inspect scenario trajectories, compare modeling assumptions, and identify cases that warrant empirical validation.

Chung-Chi Chen

Human-Agent Ally Lab (HAA Lab) National Institute of Informatics, Japan

Human Behavior Simulation LLM Agent Orchestration Agent-Based Modeling LLM Agents Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

Jul 6, 2026cs.LG

Reliability and Identifiability in Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Variance Decomposition, Stability Bounds, and the Identifiability of Heterogeneous News Reaction

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among

K

neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution

\mathcal{P}

. This paper develops the statistical theory that makes the word "reliable" precise for such estimators. We decompose estimator variance into a persona-draw component

σ_P^2

and a within-run component

σ_w^2

, give unbiased ANOVA estimators of both, and derive the variance-optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget between outer persona draws and inner replications. A coupling-based stability bound quantifies how misestimation of

\mathcal{P}

and error in the trained policy propagate into the estimand, yielding a three-term total-error budget whose terms are separately estimable; a uniform-in-horizon version holds under a Doeblin condition on the market chain. The main contribution is an identification theory for heterogeneous news reaction: under a fixed response nonlinearity, the aggregate impact curve

A(z)=\mathbb{E}_Q[g(ηz)]

detects heterogeneous news sensitivity through a strict Jensen gap and identifies the distribution

Q

locally via odd moments and Hausdorff determinacy, with sharp failure when the response family is unknown. We provide

\sqrt{n}

-consistent estimators and a boundary-corrected test of homogeneous news reaction. Two separation theorems delimit when PTMC is provably preferable to homogeneous-population simulators and reduced-form forecasters, formalizing an irreducible Jensen bias floor and the Lucas critique as a minimax limit on intervention extrapolation. All proofs are given in full; guarantees are classified as unconditional (Monte Carlo convergence), conditional worst-case (the error budget), or open (the large-

K

mean-field limit).

Salavat Ishbulatov

Independent researcher

Agent-Based Modeling

Jul 2, 2026cs.MA

Evaluating Large Language Models for Decision-Making in Agent-Based Urban Mobility Simulations

Urban mobility modeling faces challenges in representing decision-making in dynamic environments. Although Multi-Agent Systems are widely used, rule-based approaches rely on fixed heuristics that limit adaptive behavior. This work investigates the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) as decision-making components in multi-agent simulations. We propose a hybrid architecture that connects the GAMA platform to an external LLM-based module through an API, enabling agents to determine whether route replanning is necessary. Rather than replacing routing algorithms, the LLM serves as a decision layer that guides replanning behavior. The approach incorporates persistent memory, allowing past interactions to influence future decisions and promote behavioral consistency. We compare rule-based and LLM-assisted approaches across multiple road-blockage scenarios and population scales. Results indicate that LLM-enabled agents exhibit greater adaptability and contextual awareness, particularly in scenarios with higher route flexibility. Memory influences performance and behavioral consistency, with effects varying across configurations. Overall, LLMs serve as complementary cognitive layers that enrich behavioral representations in urban mobility simulations and hold potential for modeling complex decision-making in spatial multi-agent systems.

Bruno Cascaes Alves, Míriam Blank Born, Ulisses Gilioli Francescatto Júnior +3

Postgraduate Program in Computing Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil · Undergraduate in Computer Science Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil · Undergraduate in Computer Engineering Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Agent-Based Modeling Memory-Augmented Language Model Agents

Jul 1, 2026cs.CL

Conversable Complexity: Agentic LLM Collectives as Interpretable Substrates

Complexity and interpretability rarely coincide: systems rich enough for complex behaviours to emerge are usually too opaque to question, while transparent ones are too simple for anything complex to emerge. A single large language model (LLM) is a static artefact, hardly exhibiting any of the emergent properties we associate with life. This changes through interaction: populations of LLMs display emergent dynamics absent from isolated models. Furthermore, LLMs can be endowed with persistent memory, tools and shared skills, and the capacity to initiate actions unprompted, i.e., turning LLMs agentic. In this paper, we argue that such collectives of agents can serve as a computational substrate for Artificial Life (ALife) research. Critically, since the agents communicate in natural language, their collective behaviour can be directly interrogated by examining textual traces and asking the agents themselves. We outline the notion of interpretability in language-model research and extend it for collectives of agents. Lastly, we survey recent examples of agentic LLM collectives that already instantiate the idea of agentic substrates, from controlled experiments to deployments in the wild.

Elias Najarro, Ane Espeseth, Eleni Nisioti +2

IT University of Copenhagen, Denmark · University of Oslo, Norway · Sakana AI, Japan +1

Artificial Life LLM Interpretability Agent-Based Modeling Multi-Agent Systems Multi-Agent LLMs Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent Systems

Jul 1, 2026cs.HC

SenseWalk: Agent-Based Semantic Trajectory Simulation Powered by Large Language Models in Zoned Environments

Semantic trajectory analysis has recently emerged as an approach for modeling human movement by capturing implicit patterns and behaviors through semantic information (e.g., visitors' profiles and goals) beyond raw spatial paths to better understand why people move in certain ways. However, analyzing semantic trajectories in real-world scenarios remains challenging, as collecting high-quality data is costly and often lacks rich semantic information. Meanwhile, existing simulation tools require substantial technical expertise, which makes them difficult for practitioners to adopt. To address these limitations, the paper proposes

{SenseWalk}

, an interactive system that supports simulating semantic trajectories by LLM-powered agents. We develop a simulation workflow that combines LLMs and the social force model to balance physical plausibility and semantic coherence. A user-friendly interface is designed to facilitate users in customizing the simulation configuration and analyzing simulation outputs. We also conduct a quantitative experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of our simulation workflow, and a user study (n=12) to assess the usefulness and efficiency of our system.

Ziyue Lin, Xinhang Xie, Kangyi Wang +1

School of Data Science, Fudan University · Shanghai, China

Pedestrian Behavior Modeling Trajectory Generation Human Behavior Simulation LLM Agent Trajectory Synthesis Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

Jun 30, 2026cs.AI

OpenLife: Toward Open-World Artificial Life with Autonomous LLM Agents

Artificial life has explored life-like behavior on many computational substrates, but mostly in researcher-designed closed worlds. We argue that large language model (LLM) agents, with persistent memory, tool use, network access, and payment, now make it possible to move artificial life into the open social, technical, and economic world, a paradigm we call open-world Artificial Life (open-world ALIFE). Our proof-of-concept, OpenLife, surrounds a stateless LLM not with a single "smart agent" but with a society of asynchronous processes: memory, perception, evaluation, and a budget-based metabolism that makes persistence normative. With no fixed objective available, experience is appraised by open-vocabulary LLM judgment rather than scalar reward, and memory is rewired by meaning rather than frequency. Running six such agents in the open world for about twelve weeks and counting, we report the life-like dynamics that emerge: a shift from reactive to spontaneous activity, individuation into distinct agents, emergent social structure, and a first self-earned external income. We do not claim OpenLife has realized artificial life, but that open-world ALIFE is now a viable experimental paradigm and a concrete platform for studying what might cautiously be called living AI.

Atsushi Masumori, Itsuki Doi, Norihiro Maruyama +2

1Alternative Machine Inc., Japan · 4The University of Tokyo, Japan · 3Atomi University, Japan

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Artificial Life Agent-Based Modeling

Jun 30, 2026cs.GR

LLM-Driven Personalities for Decision Making in Emergency Simulations

For virtual humans to appear believable, they must exhibit agency and spatial awareness while interacting with their environment in ways that reflect competence and intelligence. At the core of these capabilities lies effective decision-making, which strongly shapes agent behavior. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, Large Language Models (LLMs) have increasingly been explored as a mechanism to support such decision-making processes. In this work, we investigate the use of LLMs to drive decision-making in virtual humans within a simulated evacuation scenario, incorporating OCEAN personality traits into agent representations. Our goal is to evaluate how personality, expressed through language-based prompts, influences both individual behaviors and collective simulation outcomes. Our results demonstrate that LLM-driven personality profiles significantly impact agents' decisions, leading to distinct behavioral patterns across different traits. These findings suggest that heterogeneous crowds composed of LLM-guided agents can enhance the realism and variability of simulated environments, offering a flexible alternative to traditional rule-based approaches.

Stefano Calzolari, Rubens Montanha, Gabriel Schneider +5

Politecnico di Torino · PUCRS

Personality Modeling in Language Models Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling LLM Decision-Making

Jun 29, 2026cs.MA

A Role-Based Multi-Agent Model for Climate Adaptation Deliberation Across Living Labs

Climate governance processes involve complex interactions between heterogeneous citizens, advocacy groups, media actors, and political decision-makers. While agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study environmental policy and socio-ecological systems, many existing approaches focus either on institutional dynamics or individual behavioural mechanisms in isolation. This paper presents a modular multi-level agent-based architecture that integrates empirically grounded cognitive decision models with strategic institutional behaviour within a unified simulation framework. The architecture combines (i) motive-based individual decision-making operationalised through the HUMAT and MOA frameworks, (ii) socially embedded influence processes via demographic homophily networks, and (iii) institutional strategy modules for environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs), media agents, and politicians. Political decisions emerge from the aggregation of multiple signals, including expert input, public mobilisation, party alignment, and media framing. The model is designed to be empirically calibrated through synthetic populations derived from survey data and and institutional parameters informed through Living Lab stakeholder engagement, and to support scenario-based exploration of climate-relevant land-use governance processes. Rather than presenting empirical results, this paper focuses on the architectural design principles, modular structure, and integration logic of the model. We discuss how this multi-layered approach contributes to the modelling of democratic climate governance and outline pathways for generalization and future validation.

Önder Gürcan, David Eric John Herbert, F. LeRon Shultz +2

NORCE Research AS, Kristiansand, Norway · University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway · NTNU, Gjøvik, Norway

Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling Multi-Agent Systems

Jun 29, 2026cs.CY

Uncovering Salience-Driven Dynamics in Consumer Confidence with Generative Social Simulation

Consumer confidence is typically modeled as a persistent macroeconomic index, yet its movements arise from households that interpret economic information through heterogeneous constraints, exposures, prior beliefs, and attention. We introduce ConsumerSim, a generative Human--Environment response framework that reconstructs Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dynamics from a microdata-calibrated synthetic population, time-stamped macroeconomic, financial, policy, and news signals, survey-like response generation, post-stratified belief expansion, and behavioral inertia alignment. Across U.S., EU27, and Japanese official CCI target series, ConsumerSim ranks first among persistence, time-series, regression, and information-augmented baselines on the reported reconstruction metrics, with clear gains around high-salience shocks. Its reconstructed signal also improves short-horizon prediction of real activity, most consistently for housing outcomes. Mechanism analyses show that CCI movements concentrate around salient events; subgroup trajectories often align in direction while differing in magnitude; and signal sensitivity varies across income, homeownership, education, and political-alignment groups. Population-expansion and ablation results indicate that representative aggregation, situational signals, persona heterogeneity, and inertia are necessary for both accuracy and diagnosis. The findings support a behavioral view of consumer confidence as an interpretable Human--Environment response process rather than a purely aggregate time series.

Yixu Huang, Yunlu Yin, Jiayu Lin +6

Fudan University. · Shanghai Innovation Institute. · The Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Human Behavior Simulation Computational Social Science Agent-Based Modeling

Jun 28, 2026cs.LG

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Estimating Market-Outcome Distributions via Swarms of Persona-Conditioned Neural Policy Bots in a Limit Order Book

We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots. Each run instantiates many bots sharing one trained policy network but conditioned on heterogeneous, individually sampled persona parameters drawn from a learned trader-heterogeneity distribution; the bots interact in a continuous double auction, and the resulting price path is one Monte Carlo sample. Repeating this over independent persona-population draws yields an ensemble from which a target market statistic is estimated. Randomness enters through persona draws, within-run action sampling, and optional exogenous shocks, not solely through price as in classical Monte Carlo. We distinguish PTMC from adjacent paradigms, including classical Monte Carlo, hand-coded agent-based models, single-agent reinforcement learning, and large-language-model-based generative agents. To justify the design, we survey cross-disciplinary foundations -- agent-based computational economics, market microstructure, behavioral finance, deep reinforcement learning, generative/LLM-based agents, news-driven trading, systemic risk, econophysics, and game theory -- connecting each literature to a specific design choice in the policy network, training data, or validation protocol. We formalize the PTMC estimator and its convergence properties, specify a candidate bot architecture and training objective, and propose a four-level validation methodology: stylized-fact matching, microstructure- and agent-level checks, and historical stress-test comparison against a zero-intelligence baseline. The framework is proposed but not implemented: we contribute a formal estimator, a cross-disciplinary design justification, and a validation roadmap, and conclude with open research questions.

Salavat Ishbulatov

Independent researcher

Quantitative Finance Agent-Based Modeling Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Algorithmic Trading

Jun 28, 2026cs.AI

A Cognition-Emotion-Personality Framework for Modeling Human-Like Awareness and Behavior in Emergency Evacuations

Agent-based evacuation simulations are widely used to study crowd behavior during emergencies, but many models rely on assumptions such as perfect event awareness, complete exit knowledge, and fully rational decision-making. This paper presents an extended evacuation framework that integrates cognitive, emotional, social, and personality-related mechanisms into a unified model of human behavior under uncertainty. The framework incorporates a dynamic event-awareness mechanism based on a continuous Event Certainty Level, a memory-based representation of exit knowledge subject to acquisition, forgetting, and recall, a continuous fear model in which panic emerges as a high-intensity state, and an OCEAN-based personality representation. Neuroticism is explicitly integrated into the emotional model, influencing fear generation, escalation, social contagion, and recovery. Behavioral heterogeneity is further captured through individualized decision thresholds that affect responses to perceived risk. The framework is evaluated through simulation experiments examining the effects of spatial familiarity, memory robustness, decision sensitivity, emotional dynamics, and personality variation. Results show that cognitive, emotional, and personality-driven processes substantially influence evacuation dynamics, reducing evacuation efficiency and generating realistic crowd phenomena such as delays, confusion, injuries, and socially influenced behaviors. The proposed framework provides a more realistic representation of human behavior in emergency evacuations and supports systematic investigation of the interactions between cognition, emotion, personality, and crowd dynamics.

Zoi Lygizou, Michalis Zervas, Helena G. Theodoropoulou +3

Athena Research Centre, Xanthi, Greece · Hellenic Open University, Patras, Greece

Cognitive Modeling Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling

Jun 27, 2026cs.MA

Metric Aggregation Divergence: A Hidden Validity Threat in Agent-Based Policy Optimization and a Contractual Remedy

Metric aggregation divergence (MAD) is the silent inconsistency that arises when distinct pipeline stages in an agent-based model coupled with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (ABM+MOEA) independently re-implement how an outcome metric is extracted from simulation trajectories. Unlike deliberate analytical choices, MAD operates at the level of pipeline architecture: each stage is internally coherent, and the inconsistency becomes visible only when cross-stage outputs are compared. Code inspection of EpidemiOptim, a JAIR-published epidemic policy toolbox, reveals three structurally independent aggregation paths in peer-reviewed code. A faithful replication of this structure produces champion disagreement in 64.2% of independent runs (n=500, 95% CI: [59.9%, 68.3%]). In a 300-seed policy-flip experiment, divergent aggregation causes the optimizer to recommend the wrong champion in 83% of replications, with a mean welfare gap of 2.19 units and a Gini inequality gap of 0.050 units. In a follow-up inference audit, 3 of 249 flipped seeds cross the significance boundary itself. A complementary enterprise follow-up produces the predicted null under near-commensurable rankings (rho = 0.991), while a public upstream rerun of the Lake Problem DPS workflow shows that the archived published-path recommendation reaches joint-threshold success 0.401 whereas a shared contract-path rule reaches 0.552. We introduce the metric contract - a single shared callable enforced at dispatch time across all pipeline stages - as the remedy. Framed as standard engineering discipline applied to the cross-stage metric interface, the contract eliminates divergence by construction with approximately 3% runtime overhead.

Ruiyu Zhang, Lin Nie, Xin Zhao

Department of Politics and Public Administration · Department of Applied Social Sciences

Software Engineering Policy Evaluation Agent-Based Modeling

Jun 26, 2026cs.MA

GenWorld: Empirically Grounded Urban Simulation Infrastructure for Scalable LLM-Agent Studies

LLM-agent simulation faces a joint grounding and scaling problem: agents should act in environments that reflect real urban constraints, yet direct online LLM calls for city-scale populations are computationally prohibitive. We present GenWorld, an empirically grounded urban simulation infrastructure that combines a building-level synthetic city, a structured agent-environment interface, and offline compilation of LLM-derived decision signals into lookup policies for scalable rollout. In a reference instantiation for Higashihiroshima, Japan, GenWorld grounds 196,608 synthetic residents in census and geospatial data, validates demographic consistency against census tabulations, and uses YJMob100K mobile-phone data as a commuting-distance diagnostic. We demonstrate the infrastructure through three reproducible cases: a full-city weekday rollout, a weekday-weekend behavioral contrast, and a warning-response perturbation with auditable replanning traces. These cases support GenWorld as a reproducible platform for grounded and scalable LLM-agent studies, while calibrated forecasting for traffic, evacuation, or policy outcomes remains future work.

Gen Li, Jieyuan Lan, Pengcheng Xu +3

Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Japan · Jiangxi Polytechnic University, Jiangxi, China · College of Urban Development and Modern Transportation, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an, China +1

Human Behavior Simulation Synthetic Data Generation Agent-Based Modeling Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

Jun 22, 2026cs.AI

Decomposing Financial Market Dynamics via Mechanism Analysis in an Evolutionary Multi-Agent Simulation

Evolutionary agent-based markets (ABMs) couple several mechanisms -- who reproduces, how price forms, how biased the agents are, how consensus propagates -- yet these are usually fixed by convention, so it is unclear which mechanism controls which emergent property. In a coevolving, endogenous-price simulator with 120 heterogeneous behavioral agents, we make four mechanisms pluggable and run matched 3x20-seed interventions. We find the levers are largely separable. (1) Selection -> diversity: a Quality-Diversity (QD/MAP-Elites) operator robustly raises strategy-mix entropy over truncation top-k (paired Delta entropy +0.27 to +1.12 bits; sign-test p<0.001; CIs exclude 0) and sustains more strategy cycling (strongest in crisis: Delta=+0.070, p=0.0004). (2) Selection does not improve realism: even a per-agent realism reward that provably steers selection does not raise 5-fact realism (Delta_5=-0.11,-0.08,+0.03; not significant). (3) Microstructure -> realism: enabling reflexive price feedback does raise realism (Delta_5=+0.13,+0.20,+0.20; crisis/bull p<0.05, all CIs positive). (4) Behavior -> fragility: amplifying behavioral bias raises a genomic fragility proxy (Delta=+10.5,+11.1,+14.4; bull p<0.001, all CIs positive) while leaving realism flat. The remaining mechanism -- consensus network topology -- shows no robust effect (honest null). The contribution is a decomposition: in these single-mechanism sweeps the mechanisms behave as approximately distinct control knobs over diversity, realism, and fragility.

Zhibao Chen

Quantitative Finance Agent-Based Modeling Finance Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent Systems

Jun 16, 2026cs.MA

Empowering Economic Simulation Through Situation-Aware Llm-Driven Generative System

Traditional economic modeling typically follows a TOP-DOWN paradigm, neglecting individual diversity and the complexity of social interactions. To better capture the complexity of societal structure, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) employs a BOTTOM-UP solution by incorporating micro-level dynamics to generate macroeconomic phenomena. Reinforcement Learning further improves its decision-making ability through tailored reward signals. However, existing ABM systems struggle to generalize beyond predefined scenarios. Recognizing the potential of LLM-driven role-playing in perception and human-like decision-making, we propose SAMAS, which models individual agents with rich macroeconomic understanding embedded in LLMs and economic trajectories experienced in the passing simulation steps. By jointly modeling both macro-level structural patterns and micro-level dynamic behaviors, SAMAS achieves superior performance in volatility realism and turning point prediction.

Zhimei Chen, Mu Chen

School of Economics, Southwest Minzu University · ReLER, AAII, University of Technology Sydney

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Human Behavior Simulation Agent-Based Modeling

Jun 15, 2026cs.MA

Machine-Coached Policy Revision in Adaptive Agent-Based Regulatory Simulation: A Controller-Level Contestability Layer

Policy-oriented agent-based models are increasingly used to study regulatory interventions in complex adaptive socio-technical systems. Recent adaptive ABM frameworks distinguish between static and adaptive agents, fixed and adaptive policies, and alternative controller designs. However, most diagnostic workflows remain ex post: trajectories are analysed after simulation, but the resulting evidence is not systematically fed back into the policy controller. This paper proposes a lightweight machine-coached policy-revision layer for adaptive agent-based regulation. The layer represents policy decisions as defeasible rules with explicit conflicts and priorities, generates explanations for controller actions, and allows diagnostic failures to be translated into rule additions, removals, or priority changes. The contribution is not a new optimal controller and does not claim formal guarantees for unrestricted machine coaching. Instead, it provides a simulation-compatible operationalization of controller-level contestability: policy decisions can be explained, challenged, revised, and re-evaluated in held-out simulation runs. A stylized emissions-regulation ABM is used as the experimental component. A controlled simulation experiment focuses on an over-conservatism failure in the VPVA regime. The predefined coaching template adds a relaxation rule to the symbolic controller, reducing over-conservatism recurrence under held-out seeds while preserving violation, overshoot, and volatility guardrails. The paper argues that machine coaching is best understood as a controller-level extension of explainable adaptive ABM, complementary to causal, information-theoretic, and trajectory-based diagnostics.

Roberto Garrone

Open University of Cyprus

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Algorithmic Accountability Agent-Based Modeling Adaptive Control

Jun 15, 2026cs.MA

Structural Distinguishability of Static and Adaptive Policy Regimes in Agent-Based Regulatory Simulation

Agent-based models are widely used to evaluate policy interventions in complex socio-technical systems, yet many policy-oriented ABMs represent regulation as a fixed scenario parameter. This limits their ability to distinguish whether regulatory conclusions depend on agent adaptation, policy adaptation, or the interaction between both. Building on a previously proposed four-regime architecture, this paper contributes a controlled simulation benchmark rather than a new general framework. Using a single configurable emissions-regulation ABM, we compare constant policy/constant agents, constant policy/adaptive agents, adaptive policy/constant agents, and adaptive policy/adaptive agents under matched simulation conditions. We evaluate naive fixed policies, tracking-aware calibrated fixed policies, and three adaptive controllers: setpoint, safety-margin, and one-sided control. The benchmark recovers expected controller archetypes: setpoint control tracks the cap but produces frequent boundary crossings, safety-margin control reduces violations through conservatism, and one-sided control can limit violations but may ratchet toward over-conservatism when combined with adaptive agents. The contribution is methodological: scalar indicators, cap-relative symbolic diagnostics, trajectory motifs, and visual inspection jointly reveal how regulatory conclusions can differ even when average outcomes appear similar. Adaptive policy-oriented ABMs should therefore be evaluated through regime distinguishability, not only through average performance.

Roberto Garrone

Open University of Cyprus, Nicosia

Agent-Based Modeling Adaptive Control

Jun 12, 2026cs.MA

Hierarchical Generative Agents for Simulating Sequential Human Behavior

Complex cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape human evacuations during natural disasters. Accurate modeling and understanding of human behavior in disasters or emergencies can greatly impact the evacuation process by informing more effective planning and resource allocation. However, collecting human data in these situations is very difficult, and existing computational evacuation models assume rational, homogeneous behavior, leading to unrealistic, overly optimistic predictions. To address this gap, we present a simulation framework of sequential human decision-making during an evacuation scenario, introducing cognitively grounded, persona-driven agents. Our framework models evacuation behavior in a grid-based urban environment that evolves over time, capturing fire and other hazards. Human agents are modeled as personas that make sequential decisions in response to environmental stimuli with cognition structured in three levels: high-level evacuation goals, mid-level route reasoning, and low-level navigation. Decision-making is driven by large language models (LLMs) coupled with a cognitive module and calibrated with empirical human evacuation data. We propose a dynamic, stimulus-driven disaster simulation framework that models human evacuation decision-making using persona-conditioned LLM agents and a cognitive hierarchy.

Maria G. Mendoza, Lucas Waldburger, Jin Lee +1

University of California, Berkeley

Cognitive Modeling Human Behavior Simulation Disaster Response Agent-Based Modeling LLM Agents