Clinical Risk Prediction

One of the significant mental health issues affecting female sex workers (FSWs) is mental disorders, especially depression. Exposure to violence, stigma, and economic hardship further increases their psychological risk. Current machine learning (ML) models are typically ineffective at capturing the high-dimensional and complex risk patterns that exist in this marginalized group. This paper suggests a hybrid predictive model that merges an ensemble feature selection strategy using ANOVA and mutual information and Harris Hawks optimization-tuned logistic regression and represents a new application of swarm intelligence to predict mental health in vulnerable groups. The explainable AI (XAI) methods can be used to understand the factors of trauma associated with model predictions. When applied to a group of 3,005 FSWs, it can be seen that the proposed model is more effective than traditional classifiers, with an accuracy of 95.78%, an F1 score of 95.77%, and an AUC of 0.96, and identifying post-traumatic stress, client-related violence, and occupational factors as major contributors to depression. This work bridges the gaps between conventional and ML approaches to develop an XAI tool that enables vulnerable groups to receive early assistance, evidence-based targeted psychosocial care, and health planning.

Mental health assessment commonly relies on isolated screening instruments or data-driven models that often lack interpretability and multi-dimensional integration. Existing approaches frequently focus on individual indicators such as depression or anxiety while providing limited support for comprehensive and explainable decision-making. To address this limitation, this study proposes PsyBridge, a hybrid intelligent decision-support framework designed for multi-dimensional mental health assessment through the integration of clinically validated screening tools, cognitive evaluation, and personality profiling within a unified architecture. The proposed framework incorporates PHQ-9 and GAD-7 assessments alongside cognitive and behavioural indicators using a modular design and a weighted aggregation mechanism to generate interpretable mental health risk classifications and recommendations. To evaluate the framework, a semi-synthetic dataset consisting of 500 patient profiles representing varying severity levels was constructed based on clinically grounded score distributions. Experimental results demonstrate that PsyBridge achieves an overall accuracy of 0.84, outperforming standalone PHQ-9 and GAD-7 assessments while improving precision, recall, and F1-score. Sensitivity analysis and ablation studies further indicate that integrating cognitive and personality components contributes to more stable classification performance and reduces inconsistencies in moderate-risk prediction. The findings suggest that PsyBridge provides a scalable and interpretable approach for AI-assisted mental health decision support, particularly within digital healthcare and telehealth environments.

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a high risk cardiopulmonary condition whose management requires both timely diagnosis and reliable assessment of future clinical risk. Because PE care routinely combines computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), radiology interpretation, and longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) evidence, it provides a clinically meaningful setting for evaluating compact multimodal language models. In this work, we build a benchmark using efficient multimodal large language models (MLLMs) on INSPECT, a multimodal PE dataset containing 23,248 CTPA studies from 19,402 patients. We formulate eight diagnostic and prognostic tasks as structured clinical question answering problems and evaluate on typical efficient MLLMs under CTPA-Only, EHR-Only, and CTPA+EHR settings with zero-shot and few-shot prompting. Results show that Gemma4 E4B and Gemma4 E2B perform more strongly when EHR evidence is available, especially under CTPA+EHR input. Task level analysis further shows that PE diagnosis achieves higher performance than prognostic tasks, particularly readmission prediction. These observations suggest that compact multimodal models have the great potential in early stage PE risk detection and explanation.

Foundation models have achieved remarkable performance across medical question answering, imaging, and electronic health record (EHR) tasks, yet reliable clinical deployment remains challenging due to limited interpretability, vulnerability to distribution shift, and weak alignment with clinician reasoning. We argue that these limitations arise because existing approaches prioritize representation learning while treating patient comparison as an emergent property rather than a primary source of clinical evidence. To address this gap, we propose CAFM, a Cohort-Anchored Foundation Model framework that elevates patient cohorts to a first-class object throughout the learning pipeline. The framework consists of four stages: deviation-aware data curation, cohort-conditioned pretraining, multimodal cohort alignment, and clinician-in-the-loop refinement. Together, these stages improve data quality, organize representations around clinically meaningful cohort structure, preserve modality-specific relationships, and support auditable clinical decision-making. The framework is compositional and can augment existing EHR foundation models without modifying their underlying encoders. We illustrate CAFM through four clinical case studies spanning acute kidney injury prediction, cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiograms, optic neuropathy triage from orbital imaging, and electroretinogram-grounded report generation. We further present five empirically testable hypotheses and identify open challenges in data quality, irregular temporality, multimodal learning, distribution shift, and evaluation beyond predictive accuracy. We argue that explicitly anchoring foundation models to patient cohorts provides a principled path toward trustworthy clinical AI.

Risk stratification for advanced colorectal polyps typically relies on colonoscopy and/or pathology findings. However, there is growing interest in whether non-invasive features available prior to colonoscopy can help identify patients at higher risk. Such approaches may enhance clinical decision-making by prioritizing surveillance for individuals most likely to harbor high-risk polyps, when colonoscopy resources are limited while potentially reducing unnecessary procedures in lower-risk patients. Importantly, the use of non-invasive, pre-procedural information may also help promote more equitable access to risk stratification, particularly in settings where colonoscopy resources are limited or unevenly distributed. We aimed to develop and externally validate machine learning models to predict high-risk colorectal polyps using only non-invasive, pre-colonoscopy demographic, clinical, and behavioral features in a diverse, predominantly African American, urban cohort. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using demographic, lifestyle, and comorbidity data from patients who underwent colonoscopy at Howard University Hospital to develop and validate several machine learning models, including neural networks, random forest, support vector machines (SVM), Naive Bayes, logistic regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and XGBoost, for predicting high-risk colorectal polyps. High-risk polyps (HRP) were defined as villous or tubullovillous adenomas, high-grade dysplasia, polyps >= 10 mm in size, and/or the presence of >= 3 polyps per procedure; all other cases were classified as low-risk polyps (LRP). The dataset included 4,681 patients from 2015-2022 used for internal validation and 1,562 patients from 2023-2024 used for external validation.

Preterm birth is associated with significant mortality and a risk for lifelong morbidity. The complex multifactorial aetiology hampers accurate prediction and thus optimal care. A pipeline consisting of bespoke machine learning methods for data imputation, feature selection, and regression models to predict gestational age (GA) at birth was developed and evaluated from comprehensive multi-modal morphological and functional fetal MRI data from 333 control cases and 93 preterm birth cases. The GA at birth predictions were classified into term and preterm categories and their accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were reported. An ablation study was performed to further validate the design of the pipeline. Performance was evaluated using stratified 10-fold cross-validation. The pipeline achieves an R2 score of 0.13 and a mean absolute error of 2.74 weeks. It also achieves a 0.77 accuracy, 0.59 sensitivity, and 0.82 specificity across folds. The predominant features selected by the pipeline include cervical length and statistics derived from placental T2* values. The confluence of fast, motion-robust and multi-modal fetal MRI techniques and machine learning prediction allowed the prediction of the gestation at birth. This information is essential for any pregnancy. To the best of our knowledge, preterm birth had only been addressed as a classification problem in the literature. Therefore, this work provides a proof of concept. Future work will increase the cohort size to allow for finer stratification within the preterm birth cohort. Our code is available at https://github.com/dfajardorojas/ml-for-preterm-birth-.

Stage B heart failure is characterized by asymptomatic structural or functional cardiac abnormalities. Identifying individuals at this stage is clinically important, as early detection may enable targeted interventions to prevent progression to symptomatic disease. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) may support early detection, transparent risk stratification, and selection of clinically actionable interventions. This review examines the use of XAI in detecting and characterizing stage B heart failure. A literature search of Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed was conducted on 27 March 2026. Studies were included if they applied AI with XAI techniques to stage B heart failure. After screening, 20 studies were included. Data on modalities, outcomes, demographic reporting, and XAI methods were extracted and synthesized. SHAP was the most commonly used method, followed by LIME, saliency maps, and Grad-CAM; however, XAI adoption was inconsistent, with some studies relying on limited or ad hoc interpretability approaches. Notably, none compared explanations across sex or ethnic subgroups, despite evidence of subgroup differences in disease burden. Evaluation of XAI outputs was often insufficient: some studies did not assess explanations, while others relied only on literature-based comparisons, introducing potential bias. These limitations suggest explainability was not systematically validated or leveraged to support robust and fair clinical inference. XAI shows promise for improving transparency in stage B heart failure identification, but current implementations remain limited. Key gaps include limited consideration of sex and ethnicity, absence of subgroup-specific analyses, inconsistent evaluation, and lack of external validation, all of which constrain generalisability and clinical adoption.

Clinical NLP increasingly relies on electronic health record (EHR) data to detect suicidal behaviors, treating clinical documentation as more reliable ground truth than social media. We argue that this framing obscures how EHR-based suicidality datasets encode a particular operationalization of suicidality, shaped by who authors the data, how episodes are bounded, and how ambiguity is resolved. We ground this argument in a case study of the ScAN dataset, built over MIMIC-III clinical notes. We show how governance constraints, ICD-based cohort selection, single-annotator labeling, and hospital-stay-level aggregation produce labels that reflect clinician-documented judgments, treat suicidality as a bounded episode, and assume that intent can be reliably inferred from documentation. A linguistic analysis demonstrates that identical labels subsume heterogeneous clinical framings differing in temporality, negation, and uncertainty. We argue that clinical NLP should examine the assumptions embedded in suicidality datasets before interpreting their labels as ground truth.

Delirium is a common and serious complication in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), associated with increased morbidity, prolonged hospital stays, and higher healthcare costs. Despite its prevalence, early prediction and prevention remain challenging. Environmental factors such as ambient sound and light may influence the onset of delirium, yet they are often overlooked in risk assessments. In this study, we examined whether light intensity and sound pressure levels can independently predict delirium across multiple prediction horizons. We evaluated four efficient sequential neural network models on data collected from 9 ICUs across 309 patients to predict delirium for 10 prediction-window sizes. We reported feature importance and direction of influence using Shapley Additive Explanations analysis. The convolutional model achieved the strongest discrimination, with AUC = 0.80 on sound data and on combined data. Sound features were the dominant predictors overall. Integrating sound with light improved short-term ($<1$ week) prediction, with the combined model assigning the highest risk immediately after the sensing period. These findings suggest that passive ambient sensing, especially sound, can add a clinically meaningful, interpretable signal for delirium risk estimation and offer a practical pathway to enrich multimodal ICU prediction and prevention strategies.

Traditional comorbidity scores (e.g., Charlson and Elixhauser) are widely used for risk adjustment and patient stratification, but they have two key limitations: (i) they are largely mortality-centric and do not align well with other clinical outcomes, and (ii) their linear, rule-based structure cannot capture nonlinear, outcome-specific risk relationships. We propose a Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index (MLCI) that maps diagnosis codes to a single scalar by maximizing the normalized Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (nHSIC) between the learned score and multiple clinical outcomes. MLCI captures nonlinear risk-outcome dependence and is supported by a theory that characterizes when a unified, informative admission-level ordering can be achieved across outcomes. Empirical results on multiple benchmark electronic health record (EHR) datasets show that MLCI outperforms strong baselines across multiple evaluation metrics.

Dysglycemia, encompassing both prediabetes and diabetes, affects huge numbers of adults worldwide, yet many of them remain undiagnosed. We developed and validated machine-learning (ML) models for non-invasive screening of dysglycemia risk that require no laboratory tests. Pooling data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017--2023 (n=14,352), we trained six ML models with stratified 5-fold cross-validation and compared them with two established clinical risk scores. LightGBM achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC=0.820, 95% CI: 0.806--0.835), outperforming the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (0.745) and American Diabetes Association Risk Test (0.783). SHAP analysis identified age, race/ethnicity, and waist-to-height ratio as the most influential predictors. Subgroup analyses confirmed consistent performance across demographic strata (AUC: 0.735--0.832). These results demonstrate the feasibility of explainable, laboratory-free dysglycemia screening for deployment in community settings and self-tracking health applications.

Survival prediction plays a central role for healthcare providers and clinical researchers. Accurate risk stratification enables early intervention and improved patient management. Most existing deep survival models learn one common feature representation for all patients, which may hide important differences between patient subgroups. In contrast, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework allows different parts of the model to focus on different patient patterns, leading to more individualized representations. Therefore, in this work, we propose a mixture-of-experts enhanced adaptive deep clustering survival framework (AdaCSM) for modeling such heterogeneous survival patterns. We introduce a routing-based expert mechanism that enables conditional specialization within a parametric survival modeling framework. The proposed architecture allocates patients to specialized risk predictors dynamically while preserving the patient survival and subtype clustering objectives. We compare our method with state-of-the-art survival and deep clustering models on multiple real-world longitudinal clinical cohorts spanning diverse disease domains. The proposed method demonstrates improved predictive performance and leads to interpretable results in survival analysis.

Background. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia and a major determinant of prognosis. Established AF risk scores rely on factors (older age, hypertension) nearly ubiquitous among patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), offering limited stratification in this high-risk group. Most target long-term (5-10 year) rather than medium-term prediction. We developed interpretable ML models predicting AF risk over a 24-month and entire follow-up horizon in CVD patients using routinely collected hospital data. Methods. Single-center retrospective study of electronic health records from the National Research Cardiology Center (Russia) for patients aged >=18 with CVD but without pre-existing AF, hospitalized more than once between January 2012 and May 2019. A custom NLP pipeline transformed unstructured discharge reports into 73 structured features, combining a rule-based parser with transformer-based NER. Using LightAutoML we built a full model (73 features), a simple model (reduced subset), and a linear model for a bedside risk score. Performance was assessed by ROC AUC, compared with CHARGE-AF, C2HEST, MHS, and HAVOC, and interpreted via SHAP. Results. Of 80,576 records from 45,000 patients, 17,562 met inclusion criteria; 1,438 (8.19%) developed AF. The full model reached ROC AUC 0.735 (24-month) and 0.696 (entire follow-up); the simple model was nearly identical (0.725, 0.696). All non-linear models outperformed the four clinical risk scores (ROC AUC 0.53-0.64). The simple model uses 13 features and is named Pre-AF 13. SHAP identified age and left atrial volume as dominant predictors. A linear risk score (Pre-AF 9) stratified observed 24-month AF incidence from ~7% to 36%. Conclusion. Interpretable ML models built from routinely collected EHR data identify high-AF-risk CVD patients, outperforming established clinical risk scores.

Supervised fine-tuning with synthetic rationale data is widely assumed to improve language model performance on clinical prediction tasks by teaching models not just what to predict but why. We test this assumption on five-year Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) prediction from longitudinal health histories. Across a large-scale controlled experiment of 504 configurations, we find that rationale-based SFT consistently and substantially hurts prediction performance relative to label-only fine-tuning. The degradation persists across model families and data scales, and is not resolved by using a reasoning-oriented base model. Crucially, the failure is not explained by poor rationale quality: human expert annotation confirms that the generated rationales are medically accurate and faithfully grounded in patient-specific evidence, and few-shot experiments show that the same rationales improve performance when used as inference-time demonstrations rather than training targets. We identify the root cause as a structural conflict between narrative plausibility and discriminative optimization. We hope our work paves the path toward a more precise understanding of when and how rationale-based supervision helps and when it does not, guiding the responsible development of language models for high-stakes clinical prediction.

Clinical early warning systems built on irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS) from electronic health records must deliver continuous risk scores for patient triage as well as interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify. Large language models (LLMs) are uniquely positioned for both, deriving risk from their output probabilities and rationales from their medical knowledge. However, we find that conventional LLM reasoning collapses graded risk into overconfident predictions and thereby undermines the cross-patient comparability on which triage depends. We refer to this failure mode as risk polarization and identify two underlying behaviors: early commitment to a single outcome, and one-sided reasoning that focuses only on the evidence for that outcome. To address this, we propose TRIAGE, a framework that trains an LLM to reason dialectically over competing clinical outcomes by eliciting outcome-specific rationales. This dialectical formulation mitigates risk polarization, enabling a single LLM to jointly provide explicit clinical rationales and risk scores comparable across patients. Across five ISMTS benchmarks, TRIAGE improves mean AUPRC by 17.0% and reduces mean calibration error by 82.8% relative to the competitive LLM-based baseline, while surpassing the strongest ISMTS baseline by 3.5% in mean AUPRC.

We investigate whether information about time-to-event risk estimated by a Cox proportional hazards model can be transferred into a generative large language model. We propose a text-based survival modelling pipeline in which structured clinical covariates are converted into text prompts and a Qwen-based large language model is fine-tuned to generate patient-specific survival risk using Cox model predictions as a training target. Across GBSG2, ACTG320, and WHAS500, the model achieves competitive held-out discrimination and calibration despite being trained as a text-generation task rather than with a conventional survival-analysis loss. We further analyse the geometry of the model's hidden states, where t-SNE visualisations reveal smooth risk gradients in latent space, suggesting that the model represents survival risk as a continuous structure rather than isolated risk categories. Together, these findings suggest that large language models can internalise survival-risk structure while supporting calibrated prediction, providing a route towards time-to-event reasoning in language models.

Routine laboratory panels drawn during cancer treatment constitute longitudinal physiological recordings of organ function, yet their temporal structure is discarded by single-timepoint prognostic tools. A transformer trained on 2,777,595 laboratory measurements from 3,905 patients with multiple myeloma or ovarian cancer predicted the two-year onset of 162 treatment-associated complications, including therapy-related myelodysplastic syndromes, spanning eight clinical categories, achieving 1.5- to 6.1-fold enrichment above prevalence at the group level. It matched or outperformed non-sequential baselines across grouped endpoints (AUROC gains up to +0.11), demonstrating that longitudinal laboratory trajectories capture evolving complication-specific physiology inaccessible from isolated measurements. Predictions generalised across both cancers, divergence concentrating in disease-specific complications, and biomarker masking recovered signatures consistent with established pathophysiology. External validation on MIMIC-IV and MMRF CoMMpass confirmed transferability across independent healthcare systems (AUROC up to 0.85). Routine oncological laboratory data encode organ deterioration weeks to months before clinical onset, enabling complication-specific surveillance without additional testing infrastructure.

Acute asthma risk assessment requires rapid interpretation of respiratory sounds, oxygenation, airflow limitation, speech ability, work of breathing, mental status, and response to reliever therapy. Conventional audio-only classifiers can detect wheeze-like patterns but often lack transparent clinical reasoning and safe escalation logic. This paper presents AeroSpectra Sentinel, a client-side research prototype and decision-support workflow that combines short-time Fourier transform (STFT) respiratory sound analysis, lightweight machine-learning screening, clinical feature fusion, and a five-stage large language model (LLM) prompt-chaining process. The workflow separates signal acquisition, preprocessing, acoustic feature extraction, ML screening, clinical guardrails, and FHIR-ready reporting. We evaluated the audio screening component on a public respiratory sound dataset containing 1,211 WAV recordings from five labels. Using a stratified subset of 584 recordings, a random forest achieved 91.10% binary accuracy and 78.69% F1-score for asthma-vs-non-asthma screening, while a feature-based multilayer perceptron achieved 89.73% accuracy and 78.26% F1-score. A compact log-spectrogram CNN achieved 73.29% accuracy and 55.17% F1-score. Multiclass classification achieved 77.40% accuracy and 77.23% macro-F1. To evaluate the LLM workflow, we conducted a scenario-based audit on 40 simulated clinical vignettes comparing one-shot prompting, prompt chaining, prompt chaining with guardrails, and prompt chaining with guardrails plus FHIR schema validation. The guardrail-plus-schema variant achieved the strongest simulated safety and documentation consistency. AeroSpectra Sentinel is intended as a research prototype, not as a diagnostic medical device or clinically validated risk-assessment product.

Electronic health records (EHR) pose large-scale multi-disease modeling problems in which many outcomes are rare and strongly influenced by shared risk factors. While modern approaches achieve strong predictive performance, they often treat diseases independently or rely on black-box architectures, offering limited insight into how risk factors organize disease risk and little principled uncertainty quantification. We introduce a Bayesian hypergraph inference framework that reframes multi-disease modeling around latent, risk-factor-modulated disease pathways. Risk factors act on hyperedges, latent disease subsets with shared risk patterns, allowing diseases to participate in multiple distinct pathways and enabling interpretable, higher-order structure beyond pairwise associations. A repulsion prior encourages parsimonious and identifiable structure, while posterior inference provides calibrated uncertainty over both disease groupings and risk-factor influence. To enable scalable inference on large EHR datasets, we develop a structured variational inference algorithm that preserves logical dependencies among hyperedge existence, disease membership, and pathway-level effects. Experiments on simulated data and UK Biobank demonstrate stable and interpretable disease pathway structure, well-calibrated uncertainty, improved estimation for rare diseases, and competitive predictive performance.

Childhood asthma is a common illness exacerbated by air pollution as well as meteorological and neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. Modeling asthma exacerbation (AE) in large spatiotemporal datasets requires disentangling impacts from multiple contributors. In this case study, we compared three techniques that balance predictive power with interpretability to predict AE in Hampton Roads, a coastal Virginia region comprising 7 cities and over 1.5 million people. After collating ambient air pollution measurements, weather data, and measures of neighborhood opportunity, we modeled zip code-level acute AE visits to a regional children's hospital and affiliated providers from 2018-2023. Generalized linear models (GLM) provided a baseline while neural networks (NN) served as a maximally predictive target. To bridge between statistical models and deep learning, we developed a framework based on sparse dictionary learning to identify and interpret parsimonious nonlinear interacting equations. After comparing each model's predictive performance, we estimated relative risks for AE due to input exposure variables and found consensus across frameworks. Our work links statistical and interpretable machine learning models to highlight possible synergistic interactions influencing AE, and may enable future studies to guide public health interventions in coastal Virginia.

This study introduces an automated deep learning framework for predicting brain injury (BI) in preterm infants from T2-weighted MRI (dHCP dataset). We propose GloResNet, a lightweight 3D CNN based on ResNet-10, pretrained on MedicalNet to address data scarcity. A global manifold mapping strategy first resamples each 3D volume to 128x128x128 and then applies subject-wise z-score intensity normalization, thereby preserving global topology while standardizing appearance. Training integrates mixup, class weighting, and test-time augmentation for robustness. In 5-fold cross-validation, GloResNet achieved 75.18% average accuracy (peak 81.82%), with specificity 0.81 and sensitivity 0.76. Results demonstrate that a topology-aware lightweight CNN has the capability to effectively predict neonatal BI, offering a non-invasive screening tool. The source code of this paper can be obtained from the GitHub repository: https://github.com/ICL-SUST/GloResNet-Preterm-Brain

Anastomotic leak remains one of the most serious complications following colorectal cancer surgery, substantially affecting patient outcomes, recovery trajectories, and healthcare costs. Despite advances in imaging technology, current preoperative assessment relies only on clinical assessment, a process that is subjective, error-prone, and highly dependent on individual expertise. To date, no validated CT-based method exists to predict anastomotic leak risk prior to surgery. This protocol paper outlines a comprehensive framework for developing and validating an AI-driven system for preoperative risk assessment using pre- and post-contrast CT imaging. The study describes the stages of data collection, ethical handling, and preprocessing of patient data in accordance with GDPR, image preprocessing, and the exploration of deep learning architectures designed to generate clinically interpretable outputs. Two integrated tools constitute the main deliverables of this workflow: 1) a risk assessment module, which quantifies the likelihood of leakage by analyzing vascular and tissue features in CT scans, and 2) a Content-Based Medical Image Retrieval (CBMIR) module, which identifies and displays similar historical cases to support evidence-based surgical decision making. The protocol paper requires close collaboration between hospitals and universities; this protocol demonstrates that such a system is technically feasible and clinically implementable within existing healthcare infrastructures. By following the proposed methodological stages and regulatory principles, other institutions can reproduce this workflow to develop analogous decision-support tools. Ultimately, this interdisciplinary framework aims to enhance surgical planning, reduce leak incidence, and contribute to a broader paradigm shift toward explainable, data-driven precision surgery.

Self-harm presentations to emergency departments (EDs) are strongly associated with higher suicide risk. NLP models have shown robust performance in detecting self-harm from triage notes within single hospitals, yet performance often declines across institutions. To examine potential causes, we compare ED triage notes from two hospitals by analyzing lexical characteristics, highly associated predictive features, and salient topics. Our results reveal variation in lexical expression and feature importance related to self-harm across hospitals, despite consistent core themes such as self-poisoning and self-injury. These documentation differences are associated with reduced cross-site performance. Our findings provide insight into how institutional variation affects the identification of self-harm in clinical text and highlight potential methods to improve model generalisability.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects roughly 25% of global adults, posing substantial hepatic and cardiovascular risks. Yet, population-level screening tools remain inadequate. We present Method, a machine-learning framework for NAFLD risk prediction coupling gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction to yield calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees on individual risk estimates. It integrates a mutual-information-based stability selection procedure to identify a compact, clinically interpretable feature subset via bootstrap resampling, constructing prediction sets whose marginal coverage provably exceeds a user-specified confidence level. We evaluated Method on a multicenter cohort from Guangzhou, China (primary n=2,187; external validation n=412) using 78 candidate features across demographics, metabolic biomarkers, and lifestyle factors. Method achieves an AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, outperforming deep neural networks, TabNet, support vector machines, and logistic regression. Conformal prediction sets achieve 91.3% empirical coverage at the 90% nominal level. A three-tier risk stratification derived from these scores separates the population into distinct groups, with the high-risk subgroup showing a 12-month progression rate 4.7 times that of the low-risk tier. The selected features -- notably waist circumference, ALT, GGT, triglycerides, fasting glucose, and BMI -- align with established metabolic risk factors, providing biological plausibility.

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a serious complication after pancreatic resection, increasing morbidity, hospital stay, and healthcare costs. We present an automatic, end-to-end deep learning pipeline-from pancreatic segmentation to classification-for preoperative POPF risk estimation and stratification using preoperative CT scans. A data set with auto-segmented pancreas volumes and surgical outcomes was used to evaluate multiple architectures, including a custom lightweight 3D CNN baseline (CNN3D), R(2+1)D ResNet-18, and ResNet-MC3-18 models. Evaluation across multiple 3D architectures demonstrated promising predictive performance. This approach offers a clinically valuable tool and a methodological benchmark for pancreas-specific CT classification, supporting improved preoperative decision-making in pancreatic surgery.

Purpose: To compare dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived hip skeletal phenotypes in relation to hip fracture risk using prespecified confounder adjustment and to assess whether phenotypes ranked by their backdoor-adjusted average treatment effects (ATEs) improve risk stratification. Methods: We analyzed 21,098 UK Biobank participants with linked health records, hip DXA-derived skeletal measures, and prespecified covariates. Sixteen phenotypes spanning bone mineral content (BMC), bone mineral density (BMD), and T-score across hip-related regions were evaluated. Confounder selection was guided by a prespecified directed acyclic graph (DAG). Backdoor-adjusted ATEs were estimated on the absolute risk-difference scale per standard deviation (SD) increase. Effect heterogeneity was evaluated for total femur BMD, and downstream prediction was assessed using clinical variables combined with phenotypes ranked by ATE magnitude. Results: Among 21,098 participants, 115 had hip fractures. All 16 phenotypes showed negative backdoor-adjusted ATEs per SD increase. The largest ATEs were observed for total femur BMC and total femur BMD, each with a risk difference of -0.0047, corresponding to approximately 4.7 fewer hip fractures per 1,000 participants per SD higher phenotype value. Conditional effects of total femur BMD were stronger among older participants and those with lower BMI. In prediction, clinical variables plus the top 11 ATE-ranked phenotypes achieved higher AUC than FRAX with femoral neck BMD (0.842 vs. 0.709), with higher sensitivity (0.748 vs. 0.443) and similar specificity (0.793 vs. 0.777). Conclusion: DXA-derived hip skeletal phenotypes differed in their backdoor-adjusted ATEs. Phenotype-level causal evaluation may help identify informative DXA measures for risk stratification.

Earlier detection of pancreatic cancer is key to enabling wider access to curative treatment and reducing cancer deaths; however, screening is presently not viable. Latent digital indicators of pathology are evident in an individual's disease and blood test trajectories and may predict the development of pancreatic cancer. Longitudinal sequences of coded diagnoses and blood test values accrued by patients throughout their clinical interactions were used to train a custom Transformer-based neural network with a multi-head attention mechanism to predict risk of pancreatic cancer with a multi-year lead time and risk-stratify populations for targeted screening. Mayo Clinic Platform with trained model from Mayo Clinic Rochester validated at Mayo Clinic Arizona, Mayo Clinic Florida, and Mayo Clinic Health Systems. The cohort comprised 6,017 adults with pancreatic cancer and 177,081 controls (median age 75, 45% female) with median 12 years (interquartile range 6.9-16.2) of medical history prior to pancreatic cancer diagnosis. External validation via leave-one-site-out, out-of-sample testing predicting pancreatic cancer 1-, 2-, and 3-years prior to diagnosis demonstrated mean area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.837 (95% confidence interval 0.827-0.848), 0.797 (95% confidence interval 0.782-0.813), and 0.760 (95% confidence interval 0.745-0.776), respectively. Estimated pancreatic cancer risks were well-calibrated (calibration plot slope 1.08, intercept of -0.077; Brier score 0.025), and a Bayesian population pancreatic cancer prevalence update allows estimated cancer risk outputs to be transportable across settings. At testing, a screening threshold of >3.3% risk of pancreatic cancer in 1-year offered a diagnostic odds ratio of 18.2. Our work therefore lays the foundation for a digital population-level risk enrichment tool that could widen access to curative-intent management.

Pulmonary embolism, the obstruction of a pulmonary artery by a blood clot, is one of the leading causes of acute cardiovascular syndrome. In clinical practice, therapeutic decisions after diagnosis via computed tomography pulmonary angiography rely on risk stratification, which categorizes 30-day mortality risk into three categories. This stratification depends on the right-to-left ventricular diameter ratio and blood levels of two cardiac enzymes. However, blood biomarkers are not always available in emergency settings, and manual calculation of established severity scores - such as Qanadli and Mastora - is time-consuming and rarely performed in clinical routine practice. This study introduces an automated pipeline that models a directed graph representation of the pulmonary arterial tree, labeling its hierarchical structure and characterizing pulmonary embolism. The pipeline derives image-based biomarkers, including local artery-level features (morphological information, hierarchical position, clot volume, and resulting obstruction) and global patient-level biomarkers such as automatically calculated severity scores (Qanadli and Mastora) and the total embolic volume distribution by lobes and hierarchical levels. Using artificial-intelligence-generated binary masks of arteries, emboli, lungs, and lobes, it creates a patient digital twin of the arterial structure. Validation of the pipeline through comparison to an existing pipeline, anatomical expectations, and manual severity score calculations demonstrates the pipeline's ability to automatically generate anatomically accurate digital twins and severity scores with strong agreement. This supports the potential of these image-derived biomarkers to automatically provide rapid, precise information on thrombotic burden and spatial clot distribution.

Suicide is a critical global public health challenge, causing approximately 720,000 deaths each year and calling for timely, effective prevention strategies. Existing computational studies primarily focus on post-based social media platforms such as Twitter and Weibo, leaving instant messaging environments such as Telegram underexplored. Yet group chats pose distinct challenges: messages are short, fragmented, multi-party, and often rely on implicit or culturally specific expressions, making isolated post-level analysis insufficient. We introduce SuiChat-CN, a Chinese group-chat benchmark for contextual suicide risk assessment. We collect public Telegram group-chat data, construct coherent conversational segments through signal-word extraction and bidirectional context expansion, and annotate user risk levels with an expert-validated, LLM-assisted paradigm. SuiChat-CN contains 13,312 contextual segments from 1,406 users, covering 258,228 raw chat messages. Extensive experiments with PLMs and more than 40 LLMs demonstrate that contextual information is essential for reliable risk assessment, while fine-tuning and partial-context evaluation further reveal the challenges of early detection in multi-party conversations. Due to ethical and sensitivity concerns, the dataset is not publicly released but will be shared with accredited mental health and suicide-prevention research institutions upon reasonable request.

International Classification of Diseases (ICD) is a globally recognized coding system that records diagnostic events during each patient encounter, providing a standardized data foundation for various clinical tasks. However, the irregular and hierarchical nature of ICD code sequences poses challenges for N-D lattice-based sequential modeling methods, leading to overly complex model designs. In this paper, we propose GraD-IBD, a graph diagnosis model that reformulates longitudinal ICD trajectories as visit-bucketized, temporally directed graphs to detect the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). A novel context-aware, time-decay message passing mechanism was developed to capture temporal dependencies while reducing model complexity. The experimental results using a real-world clinical dataset demonstrated consistent and robust improvements in IBD detection over state-of-the-art methods, with significant reductions in computational complexity compared to sequential models. These findings highlight the potential of graph representation learning to enable efficient, scalable, and accurate disease risk prediction from longitudinal ICD diagnosis codes.