Future Video Prediction

Image-metadata prediction requires fusing heterogeneous evidence whose reliability can vary across samples and latent factors. Existing representation-level fusion methods typically choose an aggregation architecture, such as concatenation, gating, conditional modulation, or attention, without explicitly defining what the fused representation should mean under modality uncertainty. We propose RiVaT-Fuse, a reliability-calibrated variational tensor fusion framework that defines fusion as sample-wise latent-state estimation. Rather than producing a fused vector by direct aggregation, RiVaT-Fuse estimates a consensus latent state through a variational objective that balances image evidence, metadata evidence, structured cross-modal interaction, and stability. The resulting framework replaces scalar modality confidence with matrix-valued trust geometry, decomposes interaction into additive, multiplicative, and relational components, and couples the latent state with conditional robustness and structured multi-task prediction. We provide well-posedness and stability interpretations of the latent solve and instantiate the framework with efficient low-rank-plus-diagonal trust operators. On an image-level image-metadata prediction benchmark, RiVaT-Fuse achieves the strongest overall predictive rank among direct representation-level baselines while improving probability and label stability under perturbation.

World models (WMs) have demonstrated strong potential for end-to-end autonomous driving by learning predictive representations of future scene dynamics. However, generating future videos during inference introduces substantial computational overhead, leading many recent driving WMs to adopt a single front camera as input for efficient deployment. This design restricts spatial coverage in safety-critical maneuvers such as lane changes, merges, and turns. To address this limitation, we propose SV-WAM, a surround-view world-action model (WAM) that preserves full six-camera observations while maintaining efficient inference. SV-WAM leverages future-video prediction as dense training supervision for action learning within a shared generative model, rather than as an inference-time output. At the core of this design is an action-centered causal mask that prevents action tokens from attending to future-video tokens during joint action-video denoising. Consequently, the video branch can be discarded at deployment, enabling efficient action-only planning. Furthermore, we introduce a differentiable drivable-area compliance regularizer that penalizes vehicle-footprint corners approaching or crossing drivable boundaries, improving planning safety and boundary awareness. Extensive experiments on the closed-loop NAVSIMv2 benchmark and the open-loop nuScenes benchmark demonstrate that SV-WAM achieves state-of-the-art planning performance with low inference latency and competitive zero-shot transfer capability.

Long-horizon future-frame prediction is important for autonomous driving, traffic surveillance, and intelligent transportation systems, yet remains challenging due to temporal ghosting, geometry drift, and inconsistent object motion. Recent latent video diffusion models have achieved impressive visual quality, but directly applying them to structured traffic scenes often leads to unstable geometry and degraded temporal coherence over extended horizons. We present a training-free inference framework that stabilizes reliable static structure in pretrained video predictions through multi-frame temporal context and view-conditioned routing. For front-camera videos, our method refines generated futures with a multi-frame depth-layered renderer that projects static geometry from observed history frames while preserving dynamic regions from the generative base model. For heterogeneous traffic views, a frozen vision-language model infers a coarse camera group from the observed clip and selects a specialized motion-based predictor. The framework requires neither retraining nor fine-tuning of the underlying video model and can be applied directly to pretrained generators. We validate the proposed framework on the AI City Challenge Track 5 benchmark, where our final system achieves competitive performance among the top-ranked teams. These results demonstrate that geometry-aware inference-time refinement and view-conditioned hybrid inference can improve static-geometry stability and low-level structural fidelity without changing the original model architecture.

Building on recent advances in world models, World Action Models (WAMs) jointly model video prediction and action generation. However, they typically represent videos in 2D pixel space, creating a representation gap with 3D space in which robotic actions are executed. Recent 3D approaches introduce 3D information, but fail to fully exploit the dynamics of 3D structures. In this work, we propose 4D-WAM, a model-agnostic training strategy that injects spatiotemporal knowledge from 3D trajectory fields into WAMs through representation alignment. To this end, we introduce two complementary objectives: 1) motion alignment, which aligns temporal feature variations across adjacent frames and encourages the model to build local 4D awareness during training, and 2) destination alignment, which guides the model to infer the final destination from the source frame by minimizing the gap between their attention-like similarity distributions. Together, these objectives provide both local motion supervision and long-horizon goal guidance, enabling WAMs to learn trajectory-level spatiotemporal representations. Extensive in-distribution and out-of-distribution experiments across different base models demonstrate the model's improvements in spatial understanding, execution precision, robustness, generalization, and versatility.

Estimating physical pressure from vision is essential for understanding contact-rich hand-object interaction. However, prior vision-based pressure estimation methods are largely limited to planar surfaces and single image input, making them difficult to apply to dynamic hand-object interaction with diverse objects. We instead formulate pressure estimation as a hand-centric video prediction problem with monocular video as input. This formulation predicts temporally evolving per-vertex normal pressure and contact directly on the hand mesh, yielding a unified output space independent of object shape and sensor layout. Building on this formulation, we propose \textbf{HOPE}, a framework with two key components. First, we lift tactile-glove pressure, planar-sensor pressure, and distance-based hand-object contact annotations into a shared hand vertex space, allowing bare-hand contact data to regularize pressure learning where metric labels are unavailable. Second, we introduce a vertex-anchored video transformer that treats each vertex as a persistent token, aggregates visual features and hand pose over time, and uses a contact-gated pressure head to enforce that pressure vanishes without contact. Experiments on OpenTouch, PressureVisionDB, and hand-object contact benchmarks validate HOPE across object-pressure, surface-pressure, and contact-supervised HOI settings. Despite using metric pressure supervision primarily from gloved-hand videos, HOPE generalizes to bare-hand egocentric and in-the-wild videos, producing joint contact and pressure predictions beyond the scope of contact-only or planar-pressure baselines.

Predictive video models have emerged as promising world models by learning latent visual dynamics from large-scale video. Yet these models remain challenged by physical events under occlusion, where later predictions may depend on object evidence that is no longer available in the current view. Addressing this challenge requires historical evidence not only to be preserved but also to remain accessible when it becomes relevant to a subsequent prediction. Existing approaches mainly enlarge the temporal context, cache generic video features, or impose explicit object-centric states, thereby improving the capacity or structure of retained history. However, they do not directly address how relevant historical evidence can be selectively retrieved and integrated into a pretrained predictor without interfering with its native latent workspace. Accordingly, we introduce HERA (Historical Evidence Routing Adapter), a framework for routing retained historical evidence into a frozen latent predictor, and instantiate it with Register-Routed Patch Memory (RRPM), a lightweight adapter comprising a Structured Memory Bank, Memory Registers, and Workspace Registers. On the IntPhys2 Main split, HERA with RRPM improves the pairwise AvgSurprise accuracy of V-JEPA 2-G from 52.57% to 54.35%. Subgroup analysis shows particularly strong improvements on fixed-camera continuity, from 46.15% to 57.69%, and fixed-camera immutability, from 46.15% to 63.46%. These results support historical evidence routing as a practical adaptation strategy for physical prediction in latent world models.

Acting in a physical scene requires knowing its real later state, not a plausible one. Current evaluations often accept words or a realistic-looking image, so the predicted state is never checked against the true one. We introduce DynaPix (Dynamic Pixels), a benchmark that makes prediction checkable. Given a video clip that stops before a key event and a question about a later moment, a model must pick the true future image from close candidates or a large gallery. The scenes come from a physics simulator, so the correct image and its time are known exactly and the wrong options are deliberately similar. Models often succeed when a visible event marks the target moment, but are near chance when only elapsed time marks it. Gallery search is harder still, as the true image rarely ranks first. People handle the elapsed-time items well, so the difficulty lies with the models, not the questions. Training on scene accounts drawn from the simulator's true record, not a teacher's guess, repairs much of this but not the longer elapsed time case. DynaPix thus exposes a temporal-anchoring gap: models attach a prediction to an event far better than to time itself.

We introduce Predictive State Retrieval (PSR), a task in which a model observes a short video prefix and a temporal question about an object's future state, then retrieves instances from other videos or images that depict that state. Unlike action anticipation, which predicts a label, moment retrieval, which localizes an observed event within a video, or video generation, which synthesizes pixels, PSR combines anticipation with cross-instance retrieval across multiple temporal horizons. We construct a benchmark from four datasets with graded, human-validated ground truth, difficulty tiers, and an oracle ceiling. We also propose LFTR, a lightweight retriever with frozen encoders that predicts a question- and horizon-conditioned future latent and matches it in complementary semantic and visual spaces. A ceiling decomposition reveals a clear bottleneck: the true future state is highly retrievable once specified, whereas every predictor we evaluate, including a large multimodal language model with access to the prefix frames, remains far below the oracle. Thus, forecasting rather than perception is the central learnable challenge. LFTR narrows this gap at substantially lower inference cost, and ablations attribute its gains to cross-space fusion and hard-negative training rather than latent rollout. We release the benchmark, code, and evaluation scripts.

End-to-end driving requires a coherent understanding of future scenes, yet existing methods model these scenes using task-specific heads and output formats, with limited scalability. Can video generation instead provide a shared predictor? We introduce SUV, a unified end-to-end driving framework that casts future Scene Understanding as Video generation using a pretrained video foundation model. SUV models future appearance, semantics, relative depth, and instance-level dynamics as video streams with a shared video expert, without stream-specific visual prediction heads. Through joint video-action attention, the action expert attends to the latent representations of all future streams and generates the ego trajectory. Experiments show that SUV directly predicts all four future streams, while controlled ablations show that structured future supervision and direct future-stream access yield higher trajectory planning scores. With only a single front camera and no candidate-trajectory selection, SUV outperforms a broad set of recent state-of-the-art methods on both NAVSIM-v2 splits, achieving 91.0 EPDMS on navtest and 36.9 on navhard. On the long-tail WOD-E2E benchmark, SUV achieves a competitive RFS of 7.94.

Multi-horizon latent consistency is a common training knob in video predictors and world models, but practitioners rarely know what it does to transition geometry. We treat lambda, the weight on multi-step latent agreement, as a diagnostic control and measure an empirical expansion proxy L20,q95 together with horizon-20 prediction error E20. On Moving-MNIST (n=6 seeds at the critical pair), raising lambda from 0 to 0.8 cuts L20 from 4.96 +/- 2.01 to 1.01 +/- 0.06 (paired t p=0.005, Wilcoxon p=0.031) and halves E20 (0.365 to 0.177, paired t p=1.1e-13). Four of six seeds cross L<1 at lambda=0.8. The same loss does not produce population L<1 on action-conditioned Pendulum-v1 or CartPole-v1, nor on KTH Actions video, even when E20 improves. An associational mediation analysis on MMNIST gives r-hat=0.94 (95% CI [0.88, 1.00], n=27, B=2000); lambda was not randomized. Defensive checks (architectural baselines, exogenous stress, WorldTest, MPC, scaling) mostly support a narrow claim: soft consistency can push passive video toward a near-contractive band, and that band is domain-limited. A stochastic-forcing law L20 ~ 1.23 + 1.82 eta at lambda=0.8 (bootstrap slope CI [1.73, 1.92], R^2=0.96) unifies control domains on the same curve via calibrated eta_eff. Complete joint slices at lambda in {0.4, 1.2} (30/30 cells, 5 eta x 3 seeds) show comparable linear L20(eta) slopes (~1.69 and ~2.00); we do not fit a continuous (lambda, eta) surface. We do not report DreamerV3 or TD-MPC2 returns.

Humans can infer how objects are likely to move from passive observation: a cup may be lifted, a drawer may slide, and a lid may rotate shut. Such predictions expose the physical consequences of interaction needed to act in the real world. We study how to learn this anticipation from ordinary monocular videos of human-object interaction. Given a short observed video context, MotionForesight predicts future 3D trajectories for points on the manipulated object. This casts interaction prediction as object-centered 3D motion forecasting without any assumptions on the object properties. Our key insight is that video prediction models already encode rich priors about how objects move during human interactions. We redirect these priors from pixel prediction toward future 3D scene flow. We start from a dense 3D tracker built on a pretrained video model, generate pseudo-ground-truth tracks from complete clips, and train the forecaster using only the observed frames. We replace future RGB and geometry with learned mask latents and train a lightweight adapter to turn the retrospective tracking representation into a forward predictor, while freezing the large video and tracking components. Using just 40k human videos and no auxiliary inputs such as language, MotionForesight generalizes across diverse out-of-distribution objects, environments, viewpoints, and interactions. It also outperforms substantially larger models that use over a million training videos. These results show that we can efficiently re-purpose video priors into explicit geometric forecasts for embodied intelligence. https://motionforesight.github.io/

Simulating deformable objects is essential for a wide range of robotic manipulation applications, yet accurately predicting their dynamics remains challenging. We propose Physics-Guided Residual Dynamics (PGRD), a hybrid simulation framework that combines the advantages of physics-based and learning-based approaches. Specifically, PGRD combines an optimizable spring-mass simulator as a backbone with a learned neural network that predicts residual corrections to the physics-based predictions. We adopt a velocity-based formulation to ensure stable simulation and a sliding-window transformer architecture to capture temporal dependencies. We show that PGRD produces more accurate results than both purely physics-based and learning-based methods on a set of diverse real-world deformable objects. We further demonstrate the utility of PGRD in two applications: manipulation planning via Model Predictive Control, including a language-conditioned setting with a generated goal image; and interactive simulation via action-conditioned video prediction by 3D Gaussian Splatting.

Understanding and forecasting audience reactions to video content are crucial for improving content creation, recommendation systems, and media analysis. To enable audience reaction prediction and other content engagement applications, we introduce $\textbf{Video2Reaction}$, a multimodal dataset that maps short movie segments to a distribution of $\textit{induced emotions}$ of viewers in the wild, as expressed through social media. $\textbf{Video2Reaction}$ spans more than 10,000 videos and serves as a reliable benchmark as well as a training resource for audience reaction prediction. To enable cost-effective continuous annotations as reactions may change over time, we develop a two-stage multi-agent pipeline using only open-source LLMs, achieving 86% correctness under blind human verification despite the inherently noisy and subjective nature of the task. We establish the first benchmark for video-to-reaction-distribution prediction in the wild and show that pretrained foundation video models fail in zero-shot settings, while finetuning transforms them into state-of-the-art predictors capable of modeling both full reaction distributions and dominant responses from video alone. However, the task remains challenging: even the strongest methods achieve only 77% Top-3 F1 in dominant reaction prediction (LLaVA-Next), highlighting a substantial gap in modeling collective audience reaction. \modification{Dataset and code are available at our project page: https://information-fusion-lab-umass.github.io/video2reaction-bench.github.io

Continuous video anomaly detection is dominated by reactive Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) that collapses spatiotemporal features into scalar scores. We introduce PULS (Predictive Unified Latent Space), a continuous semantic world-model pipeline comprising two modules: a 490M-parameter KSD Bridge (Kinematic-to-Semantic Distillation) and a 16.8M-parameter Anticipatory State Predictor (ASP). The KSD Bridge maps V-JEPA 2 physical tensors into the 2048-d Qwen3-VL-Embedding-2B text-aligned hypersphere, trained on a subset of UCF-Crime. This translation alone yields a chunk-level AUROC of 0.8994 for UCF-Crime and 0.8162 for out-of-distribution XD-Violence without MIL or hierarchical fusion. We introduce and validate the Latent Clarity Hypothesis: because JEPA's temporal predictor discards aleatoric pixel noise while preserving kinematics, anticipated future representations are more semantically separable than observed presents. The ASP sharpens these anticipated future latents, achieving 44.5% mean 14-way zero-shot VQA accuracy (exceeding observation baseline by +9.6 pp). Applying the ASP to Observation Tensors collapses accuracy to 7.3% (random chance), proving Anticipation and Observation occupy distinct sub-manifolds. A Triple-Track Lead-Time protocol with an L1-surprise gate yields a peak +8.9 pp anticipatory advantage at T-0.5s (p < 0.001, N = 1,000 permutation), separating physical anticipation from static scene priors. Zero-shot transfer to XD-Violence confirms that Newtonian-invariant kinematic representations generalize out-of-distribution.

Hierarchical state-space models (HSSMs) offer a promising approach to long-horizon prediction by segmenting sequences into temporal chunks. However, their performance hinges on how chunk boundaries are determined. While prior HSSMs typically rely on fixed-length chunking or similarity-based boundary detection, these methods often misalign with the intrinsic temporal structure of the data. We argue that chunking should instead be driven by prediction errors, which more directly indicate when longer-range context becomes necessary. Nevertheless, integrating surprise-based chunking into HSSMs introduces critical challenges, including hierarchical collapse during end-to-end training and the absence of surprise signals during open-loop prediction. To address these issues, we propose Surprise-based Nested Temporal Abstraction (SUNTA), a method that employs a decoupled training strategy to preserve surprise signals and uses internal inconsistency as a top-down surprise metric to determine chunk boundaries within imagined rollouts. Experiments on video prediction tasks in 2D and 3D environments demonstrate that SUNTA outperforms baselines, uniquely maintaining accurate predictions over 250 timesteps, whereas all baselines degrade within the first 10 timesteps.

Deep multimodal brain-encoding models now predict fMRI responses to naturalistic video with high accuracy; whether their predicted neural signals also forecast behavioral engagement is unknown. We run TRIBE, the winning model of the 2025 Algonauts challenge (Llama-3.2 + V-JEPA 2 + Wav2Vec-BERT), on 48 YouTube videos and reduce its predicted cortical response to a per-second engagement curve, the global field power. Correlated against each video's "most replayed" heatmap, a proxy for re-watch, it shows no evidence of prediction: the pooled position-controlled partial correlation is +0.058 (95% CI [-0.04, 0.15]; t(47)=1.21, p=0.23), and not above simple loudness/motion baselines. The raw correlation is also near zero; the moderate values for music videos are an onset-replay artifact. The null holds across six cortical-network readouts, value/salience ROIs, and a permutation test; a supervised leave-one-video-out probe appears to reach r=0.47 but collapses to a temporal-shape artifact under a proper position control. Running the probe on TRIBE's input streams reveals at most a small, borderline visual-stream signal (matched vs. mismatched p=0.004-0.06) and none in audio, text, or the predicted cortex. The inter-subject-correlation readout, the closest prior positive result, is unavailable from the subject-averaged released model, so we fit our own per-subject encoders on the Algonauts fMRI (validated in-domain at r=0.15 and cross-domain, Friends-to-film, at r=0.10); the predicted ISC still does not track re-watch (r=-0.04, p=0.34). We bound rather than merely fail to reject the null: a Bayes factor gives moderate evidence for it (BF01=3.2), an equivalence test excludes effects above r=0.14, and the target's split-half reliability (0.82; ceiling r=0.9) rules out a noisy-label artifact. We release code, a video-ID manifest, and a heatmap-acquisition method robust to YouTube's SABR streaming.

How to accurately predict a high-fidelity future world? While the visual world is inherently continuous, existing deterministic video prediction models operate in discrete pixel space and are mainly optimized with pixel-wise mean squared error (MSE), which often leads to over-smoothed predictions and a lack of fine-grained visual details. To address these limitations, we propose Predictive Differentiable Rendering (PDR), a novel end-to-end video prediction paradigm that bridges the gap between discrete and continuous representations. Inspired by recent progress in 3D reconstruction with 3D Gaussian Splatting, we introduce PredGS, a lightweight and plug-and-play adapter based on 2D Gaussian representation, which could be seamlessly integrated with existing pixel space predictors, significantly improving spatial detail preservation with negligible computational overhead. Furthermore, we develop predgsplat, a CUDA-accelerated differentiable 2D Gaussian renderer supporting arbitrary channels. Each Gaussian is defined by 5 + C learnable parameters (position, scale, rotation, and C channel amplitudes) and achieves up to 10x faster rendering than the baseline. Optimized by a combined L1 and SSIM loss, PDR overcomes the inherent blurring tendencies of MSE Loss, significantly enhancing the prediction performance. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world benchmarks, including TaxiBJ, WeatherBench, KTH, and Human3.6M, demonstrate that PDR consistently surpasses existing methods, delivering superior detail preservation, visual fidelity, and predictive accuracy.

Anticipating traffic accidents from dashcam videos is a critical challenge in intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods typically map visual context directly to a collision probability without explicitly modeling the future evolution of the driving scene. In this paper we propose FLaRA (Predicting Future Latent Representations for Accident Anticipation), a novel predictive architecture that shifts this paradigm by forecasting future latent representations for accident anticipation. Building upon the Video Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (V-JEPA2), our model conditions a predictor network on observed context frames to predict the forthcoming latent features of the scene. A classifier then operates on these predicted future representations rather than only on past observations. To ensure these forecasts remain grounded in realistic future dynamics, we introduce a joint training objective that simultaneously optimizes an auxiliary feature-level reconstruction loss and a cross-entropy classification loss. Extensive evaluations on the Nexar dataset, alongside cross-domain validations on the DAD, DADA-2000, and DoTA benchmarks, demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining realistic early warning capabilities.

World Action Models (WAMs) present a promising paradigm for robotic control via video prediction. However, current WAMs suffer from fundamental spatial bottlenecks: standard text inputs introduce referential ambiguity in cluttered scenes, while unstructured RGB predictions lack semantic grounding and remain biased by task-irrelevant backgrounds. To overcome these limitations, we introduce MaskWAM, an object-centric world-action model. By jointly integrating masks as both explicit inputs and predictions via a unified Mixture of Transformers (MoT), MaskWAM unlocks robust policy generalization. This design provides two key benefits: (1) predicting future masks yields object-centric semantic supervision that suppresses visual noise, significantly enhancing even standard text-conditioned WAMs; and (2) coupling this predictive supervision with first-frame visual prompts, such as target object masks, establishes a precise spatial anchor that substantially reduces language ambiguity. Crucially, as WAMs are inherently vision-driven architectures, direct mask conditioning yields substantially stronger guidance than text alone, establishing a precise and robust paradigm for manipulating unseen objects. Evaluations on LIBERO, RoboTwin, and real-world tasks demonstrate that MaskWAM significantly outperforms baselines in both language-clear and language-ambiguous tasks.

World-Action Models (WAMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for embodied control by coupling future visual prediction with action generation. However, most existing WAMs rely on photorealistic future prediction, which incurs high inference latency and makes real-time robot deployment difficult. This motivates a more efficient WAM design that preserves the control benefits of future visual prediction while reducing its inference cost. We introduce Efficient-WAM, a World-Action Model that reduces the cost of future imagination while preserving its control benefit. Efficient-WAM improves inference efficiency via a compact video expert transferred from WAN-2.2-5B, token-sparse video latents, and asymmetric video-action denoising that allocates fewer sampling steps to video than to actions. Instead of optimizing the future branch for visual fidelity, Efficient-WAM treats future video prediction as a compact guidance signal for action generation. Comprehensive experiments on RoboTwin 2.0 and real-world manipulation tasks show that Efficient-WAM maintains strong action performance despite visibly coarse future predictions. While maintaining competitive control capabilities, our 1B-parameter model can reduce per-chunk latency to around 100 ms during physical deployment, achieving a 30x speedup over existing WAMs.

Self-supervised video representation learning has recently advanced through contrastive learning, masked reconstruction, and predictive representation learning. Reconstruction-based approaches such as MAE and VideoMAE learn representations by recovering masked visual content \cite{he2022mae,tong2022videomae}, while contrastive methods such as CLIP learn semantically meaningful embedding spaces through representation alignment \cite{radford2021clip}. In this work, we introduce a Momentum-Guided Semantic Forecasting framework (MoFore) for self-supervised video representation learning. Instead of optimizing for pixel-level reconstruction or task-specific semantic alignment, the proposed method learns temporally predictive video representations by forecasting future latent embeddings from temporally distant context clips. To improve robustness across temporal scales, we further introduce randomized temporal-gap forecasting during training. The framework combines predictive latent forecasting with contrastive regularization to encourage temporal consistency while preventing representation collapse. Experiments on the UCF101 dataset demonstrate that the proposed framework learns temporally consistent and semantically meaningful video representations without using action labels during training. Quantitative analysis shows strong temporal stability and emergent category-level structure in the learned embedding space, while qualitative retrieval experiments reveal motion-aware organization across related activities. Overall, the results suggest that long-range latent forecasting provides an effective and computationally efficient approach for self-supervised video representation learning without relying on reconstruction-based objectives.

Atmospheric plasma spraying (APS) is a widely used coating process in which in-flight particle temperature and velocity strongly influence coating quality. However, these particle characteristics are difficult to monitor continuously during operation, motivating the development of non-invasive data-driven diagnostic methods. In this work, we investigate the predictive potential of high-speed video observations of the plasma plume for estimating in-flight particle characteristics in APS. We introduce three different video-derived feature representations and evaluate them using Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Networks (TabPFN), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and classical regression baselines including Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and XGBoost. Experiments are conducted using grouped leave-one-out cross-validation on 126 labeled pre- and post-spray video recordings from 63 APS spray runs. Across the engineered feature experiments, TabPFN achieves the most consistent performance for temperature prediction, reaching R2 = 0.86 using the combined feature representation. CNN models particularly perform stronger for velocity prediction, achieving R2 of 0.81. In addition, we evaluate models operating directly on raw video frames using pretrained CNNs and find that the highest performance is achieved by a pretrained CNN with a regression head with R2 of 0.90 and 0.82 for temperature and velocity, respectively. The results demonstrate that video-derived plume information provides a promising and scalable foundation for non-invasive APS diagnostics and real-time process monitoring.

Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.

Reinforcement learning from expert videos across visually distinct domains is challenging due to the absence of reward signals and the presence of domain gaps. We introduce XIPER (Cross-domain Video Prediction Reward), a reward model for learning from expert videos collected in a visually different domain, where the agent's appearance differs due to factors such as color, morphology, or the sim-to-real gap. More specifically, XIPER trains a cross-domain video prediction model that maps agent observations into the expert domain and uses the prediction likelihood as a reward signal. Experiments on the DMC Color Suite (8 tasks) and DMC Body Suite (3 tasks) show that XIPER consistently outperforms baselines despite domain gaps such as differences in agent color and morphology. We further analyze XIPER on a sim-to-real transfer dataset, demonstrating that it produces meaningful reward signals for real-robot observations given only simulated expert videos. Code, pretrained models, datasets and video demonstrations can be found on our project webpage: https://sites.google.com/view/xiper

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models generalize across static manipulation but fail when objects move during task execution. They map the current observation to an action and assume the scene is stationary between observation and execution, so at any non-trivial object speed the resulting latency exceeds the time available to grasp. We close this gap with AHEAD (Anticipatory Horizon Extrapolation with Adaptive Dynamics), a predict-then-act wrapper that augments a frozen VLA with a motion-aware latent world model. A small world model trained on manipulation video forecasts future patch tokens in the VLA's feature space, conditioned on per-token velocity and acceleration from optical flow. A language-and-motion saliency mask concentrates prediction on task-relevant patches, and the model rolls forward for an adaptive horizon, halting when prediction uncertainty crosses a threshold. The frozen action decoder then receives the predicted future tokens in place of the current ones. AHEAD adds 4.9M parameters to a frozen 7B OpenVLA and reaches 79 to 97% success across 20 dynamic simulation scenarios where the strongest baseline reaches 31 to 58%. On a physical UFactory xArm 7, AHEAD succeeds on 29/30 to 30/30 on three conveyor and rolling-ball tasks, 23/30 on paddle interception, and 19/30 on projectile catching where every baseline scores 0/30.

Watch time has emerged as a pivotal metric for optimizing deep user engagement in short-video recommender systems. However, current methods of watch time prediction (WTP) suffer from inherent paradigm-specific limitations. Direct Regression faces mean-collapse due to unimodal Gaussian assumptions, while Ordinal Regression is hampered by quantization errors from rigid discretization. Similarly, Discrete Generative Regression struggles with high inference latency and heuristic vocabulary design. Beyond these specific flaws, a shared deficiency is the inability to capture the intrinsic multimodality and heterogeneity of User-Item Interaction Patterns. To address these challenges, we first revisit the WTP problem from a causal perspective and identify these user-specific patterns as structural confounders that modulate watch time outcomes, where identical interests manifest as distinct watch time outcomes conditioned on diverse user habits. Then, we formally propose a new (or the fourth) paradigm -- Continuous Generative Regression, and introduce FlowTime, a novel method utilizing a One-step Generative Variational Autoencoder. FlowTime effectively circumvents the latency of iterative denoising while maintaining the expressivity of continuous latent spaces. Furthermore, we design a Flow-based Personalized Prior that leverages NFs to warp a standard Gaussian prior into a complex, history-conditioned manifold, thereby enabling the adaptive modeling of multimodal interaction patterns. Finally, we build TimeRec, the first open-source WTP Library, alongside a novel personalization metric to establish a rigorous benchmarking standard. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate FlowTime's significant superiority over SOTA methods.

Accurately predicting future events is fundamental to content understanding and decision-making across various domains. While prior research has primarily focused on text or short-video scenarios, long-video event prediction, characterized by vast multimodal context and more complex narratives, remains underexplored. Meanwhile, although recent Long-Video Language Models (LVLMs), built on Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs), have shown promise in long-video question answering and summarization, they struggle to generalize to event prediction, as they can neither precisely extract event-related details nor perform fine-grained analysis of event development. To address this gap, we propose VISTA, a multi-level event semantics mining framework for long-video event prediction. Initially, VISTA applies a character-centric visual prompt to precisely extract event-related visual details, enhancing detail-level semantics; subsequently, it employs a knowledge-enhanced iterative retrieval strategy, guiding the LLM to progressively construct logically coherent event chains, thereby improving event-level narratives; ultimately, VISTA adopts a human-like propose-then-retrieve strategy to generate diverse future-oriented proposals and integrate multi-level clues, producing robust and accurate predictions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of VISTA for long-video event prediction.

Saliency prediction has been extensively studied in RGB images and videos as a computational model of human visual attention. In contrast, predicting saliency from event-based data remains largely unexplored, despite the biological inspiration and favorable sensing properties of event cameras. Two obstacles have held this direction back: the absence of large-scale event saliency datasets, and the lack of a strong baseline. In this paper, we introduce SEST (Swin Event-based Saliency Transformer), a transformer-based model for saliency prediction from event data, bridging the data scarcity barrier through event-native pretraining and synthetic supervision. SEST leverages a self-supervised pretrained event-based Swin Transformer backbone combined with a lightweight CNN decoder to produce dynamic saliency maps. To address the scarcity of annotated event-based saliency data, we introduce two new benchmark datasets, N-DHF1K and N-UCF Sports, generated from large-scale RGB saliency benchmarks. Experimental results show that SEST clearly outperforms existing event-based saliency methods and narrows the performance gap with state-of-the-art RGB models. Zero-shot evaluation on a real event camera dataset further demonstrates that our model trained on synthetic data remains transferable on real event streams. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to apply deep learning to event-based saliency prediction, opening a new research direction at the intersection of event-based vision and neuromorphic visual attention.

World models have become a central paradigm for learning predictive simulators that support generation, planning, and decision-making. Yet, despite rapid progress in industry-scale interactive video generation, the broader research community still lacks compact, reproducible, and easily extensible implementations for studying the design choices underlying modern world models. We introduce Nano World Models, a minimalist codebase for future video prediction centered around diffusion forcing. Nano World Models provides a unified interface for generative objectives, model scales, action-conditioning mechanisms, latent observation spaces, datasets, evaluation protocols, and long-horizon rollout procedures. This design enables controlled studies of world-modeling components that are often entangled across separate implementations. Through experiments across simple control environments, game simulation, and real-robot data, we examine how prediction parameterization, architecture scale, action injection, sampling budget, and domain complexity affect video prediction quality and autoregressive rollout behavior. By releasing code, configurations, evaluation scripts, and pretrained checkpoints, Nano World Models aims to provide a compact yet extensible experimental substrate for open, reproducible, and scientific world-model research.

Self-supervised video models are increasingly framed as world models, yet their evaluation remains largely confined to a single top-1 accuracy score on clean benchmarks. This leaves a major gap in comprehending their potential as world models. We present the first systematic study addressing this gap, analyzing four matched-capacity frontier video foundation models, V-JEPA 2.1, V-JEPA 2, VideoPrism, and VideoMAEv2, across five robustness axes relevant to their deployment as video world models: feature discriminability, corruption robustness, fine-grained discrimination, occlusion robustness, and sensitivity to temporal direction. Our evaluations establish that across all five axes, latent-prediction models form a distinct and consistent profile. They degrade more gracefully under pixel corruption, preserve usable class structure rather than mere geometric stability under occlusion, capture fine-grained physical contact cues without reconstructing pixels, and uniquely encode the arrow of time. These advantages can even survive task adaptation: a frozen V-JEPA 2 backbone with a lightweight attentive probe outperforms a fully fine-tuned VideoMAE and a supervised TimeSformer on corruption and occlusion robustness. Our extensive results offer concrete new evidence in favor of latent prediction for robust world modeling.

Learning predictive world models from unlabelled video is a foundational challenge in artificial intelligence. While Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) have set new benchmarks in semantic classification, they often remain physics-blind, failing to capture the causal dynamics necessary for downstream reasoning. We hypothesize that this stems from standard patch-based masking strategies, which prioritize visual texture over rare but informative kinematic events. We propose Interaction-Aware JEPA (IA-JEPA), which utilizes a self-supervised motion-centric masking strategy to prioritize physical interactions. By specifically targeting entities engaged in collisions or momentum transfers, we force the architecture to reconstruct latent trajectories rather than static background features. Evaluated on the CLEVRER benchmark, IA-JEPA achieves 14.26% accuracy on causal reasoning tasks, a significant lead over the 3.22% achieved by standard patch-masked baselines. Crucially, we demonstrate that IA-JEPA breaks the "static bias" of standard self-supervision by inducing a higher-entropy, more discriminative latent space (+10% entropy gain) that linearizes physical energy ($R^2=0.43$). We show that this interaction bias generalizes to real-world human actions (Something-Something V2) and zero-shot physical puzzles (PHYRE-Lite). Our results provide a scalable, fully self-supervised path toward building foundational world models that begin to internalize the causal structure of the physical world.

Learning a physical model from video data that can comprehend physical laws and predict the future trajectories of objects is a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Prior approaches either leverage various Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) as soft constraints in the form of PINN losses, or integrate physics simulators into neural networks; however, they often rely on strong priors or high-quality geometry reconstruction. In this paper, we propose CausalGS, a framework that learns the causal dynamics of complex dynamic 3D scenes solely from multi-view videos, while dispensing with the reliance on explicit priors. At its core is an inverse physics inference module that decouples the complex dynamics problem from the video into the joint inference of two factors: the initial velocity field representing the scene's kinematics, and the intrinsic material properties governing its dynamics. This inferred physical information is then utilized within a differentiable physics simulator to guide the learning process in a physics-regularized manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalGS surpasses the state-of-the-art on the highly challenging task of long-term future frame extrapolation, while also exhibiting advanced performance in novel view interpolation. Crucially, our work shows that, without any human annotation, the model is able to learn the complex interactions between multiple physical properties and understand the causal relationships driving the scene's dynamic evolution, solely from visual observations.

Teleoperation systems are fundamentally limited by communication latency, which degrades situational awareness and control performance. Predictive display aims to mitigate this limitation by presenting an estimate of the current visual state rather than delayed observations. While recent advances in generative video models enable high-quality video synthesis, their suitability for latency-sensitive predictive display remains unclear. This paper presents a zero-shot benchmark of off-the-shelf generative video models for short-horizon predictive display, without task-specific fine-tuning. We formulate the problem as rollout-based future frame prediction and develop a unified benchmarking pipeline using simulated driving data from the CARLA simulator. Five publicly released video models spanning transformer-based and diffusion-based families are evaluated across two resolutions and two conditioning regimes (multi-frame and single-frame). Performance is assessed using prediction accuracy (mean absolute difference), per-rollout latency, peak GPU memory usage, and temporal error evolution across the prediction horizon. On this zero-shot benchmark, no tested model simultaneously achieves low rollout error, non-divergent per-step error behavior, and real-time inference at the source frame rate. Increasing model scale or resolution yields limited and, in some cases, inverted improvements. These findings highlight a gap between general-purpose generative video synthesis and the requirements of predictive display in teleoperation, suggesting that practical deployment will require either explicit short-horizon temporal supervision, in-domain adaptation, or aggressive inference optimization rather than direct application of off-the-shelf models. Code, configurations, and qualitative results are released on the project page: https://bimilab.github.io/paper-GenPD

With the rapid development of the Internet, users have increasingly higher expectations for the recommendation accuracy of online content consumption platforms. However, short videos often contain diverse segments, and users may not hold the same attitude toward all of them. Traditional binary-classification recommendation models, which treat a video as a single holistic entity, face limitations in accurately capturing such nuanced preferences. Considering that user consumption is a temporal process, this paper demonstrates that the timing of user actions can represent diverse intentions through statistical analysis and examination of action patterns. Based on this insight, we propose a novel modeling paradigm: Action-Aware Generative Sequence Network (A2Gen), which refines user actions along the temporal dimension and chains them into sequences for unified processing and prediction. First, we introduce the Context-aware Attention Module (CAM) to model action sequences enriched with item-specific contextual features. Building upon this, we develop the Hierarchical Sequence Encoder (HSE) to learn temporal action patterns from users' historical actions. Finally, through leveraging CAM, we design a module for action sequence generation: the Action-seq Autoregressive Generator (AAG). Extensive offline experiments on the Kuaishou's dataset and the Tmall public dataset demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model. Furthermore, through large-scale online A/B testing deployed on Kuaishou's platform, our model achieves significant improvements over baseline methods in multi-task prediction by leveraging sequential information. Specifically, it yields increases of 0.34% in user watch time, 8.1% in interaction rate, and 0.162% in overall user retention (LifeTime-7), leading to successful deployment across all traffic, serving over 400 million users every day.

World models derived from large-scale video generative pre-training have emerged as a promising paradigm for generalist robot policy learning. However, standard approaches often focus on high-fidelity RGB video prediction, this can result in overfitting to irrelevant factors, such as dynamic backgrounds and illumination changes. These distractions reduce the model's ability to generalize, ultimately leading to unreliable and fragile control policies. To address this, we introduce the Mask World Model (MWM), which leverages video diffusion architectures to predict the evolution of semantic masks instead of pixels. This shift imposes a geometric information bottleneck, forcing the model to capture essential physical dynamics and contact relations while filtering out visual noise. We seamlessly integrate this mask dynamics backbone with a diffusion-based policy head to enable robust end-to-end control. Extensive evaluations demonstrate the superiority of MWM on the LIBERO and RLBench simulation benchmarks, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art RGB-based world models. Furthermore, real-world experiments and robustness evaluation (via random token pruning) reveal that MWM exhibits superior generalization capabilities and robust resilience to texture information loss.

Time-to-Collision (TTC) forecasting is a critical task in collision prevention, requiring precise temporal prediction and comprehending both local and global patterns encapsulated in a video, both spatially and temporally. To address the multi-scale nature of video, we introduce a novel spatiotemporal hierarchical transformer-based architecture called CollideNet, specifically catered for effective TTC forecasting. In the spatial stream, CollideNet aggregates information for each video frame simultaneously at multiple resolutions. In the temporal stream, along with multi-scale feature encoding, CollideNet also disentangles the non-stationarity, trend, and seasonality components. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in comparison to prior works on three commonly used public datasets, setting a new state-of-the-art by a considerable margin. We conduct cross-dataset evaluations to analyze the generalization capabilities of our method, and visualize the effects of disentanglement of the trend and seasonality components of the video data. We release our code at https://github.com/DeSinister/CollideNet/.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.