Ground Truth

Accurate ground-based cloud classification is important for atmospheric monitoring, solar-energy forecasting, aviation weather assessment, and climate observation systems. However, reliable sky-image annotation is time-consuming, especially when cloud types are visually similar or mixed. We study the label efficiency of deep learning for ground-based cloud classification using the Ground-based Cloud Dataset (GCD). Rather than proposing a new architecture, we benchmark three practical strategies under limited annotation budgets: supervised transfer learning, uncertainty-based active learning, and high-confidence pseudo-labeling. An ImageNet-pretrained ResNet50 is used as a common frozen backbone, with experiments repeated over five random seeds for label budgets from $1\%$ to $100\%$ of the training labels. Supervised transfer learning is already highly label-efficient: test accuracy increases from $0.635 \pm 0.018$ with $1\%$ labels to $0.730 \pm 0.002$ with $40\%$ labels, approaching the full-label result of $0.735 \pm 0.003$. Active learning and pseudo-labeling are competitive with supervised sampling and provide small improvements for some metrics and budgets, but neither gives a large or consistent aggregate gain. Diagnostic analyses show that accepted pseudo-labels are reliable, with accuracy from $0.946$ to $0.977$, but biased toward easier high-confidence sky-type groups. In contrast, uncertainty sampling preferentially queries visually challenging groups, including Mixed and the confusable Stratocumulus and Cumulonimbus groups, but these targeted acquisitions yield only modest gains. Overall, transfer learning substantially reduces annotation requirements for GCD, while simple active and semi-supervised strategies provide limited additional benefit over a strong supervised baseline.

To operate effectively in human environments, robots must identify articulated objects, segment their movable and interactive parts, and estimate their kinematic models. Existing articulated scene representations typically recover kinematics from observed interactions, while methods operating on static scans often decouple articulation from functional interactive elements. We present FunArt, a framework that constructs articulation-aware functional 3D scene graphs from posed RGB-D observations captured in a single static configuration. FunArt reconstructs object instances, converts their fused geometry directly into the O-Voxel representation of TRELLIS.2, and exploits its frozen, sparse-compression VAE as a structural prior. A lightweight query-based decoder combines compact object-level latents with dense, surface-aligned features to jointly segment movable parts and functional interactive elements while estimating motion type, axis, origin, and range. On the Articulate3D dataset, FunArt achieves state-of-the-art performance across movable-part segmentation, articulation estimation, and functional-element segmentation, both with and without ground-truth object input. In the end-to-end setting, it outperforms the strongest baselines by 1.5 AP_{50} points for movable parts, 2.8 AP_{50} points under joint origin-and-axis constraints, and 6.7 AP_{50} points for functional elements. These results demonstrate that generative 3D latents encode actionable structural cues that can initialize robotic perception and planning before physical interaction.

For art historians, goldsmith marks play a critical role in the identification and dating of artifacts. In practice, experts must manually compare a query mark against hundreds of documented examples, a process that is both tedious and highly dependent on specialist knowledge. To address this, we present an AI-assisted retrieval pipeline that combines mark localization with metric-learning fine-tuning across three backbone architectures: an ImageNet-pretrained ResNet-50, a supervised ViT-S/16, and a self-supervised DINOv2 ViT-S/14. We conduct a systematic evaluation of cropping strategies, where we measure the impact of no cropping, manual ground-truth cropping, and learned detection-based cropping, and assess their interaction with each backbone. Our strongest configuration, DINOv2 ViT-S/14 with manual crop and metric-learning fine-tuning, achieves an mAP of 62.63% and a Top-1 accuracy of 73.74%. Our experiments show that self-supervised pretraining and mark localization are the two most impactful factors, with learned cropping recovering the majority of the gain from manual cropping without requiring ground-truth annotations at inference time. To enable reproducibility and adoption in the digital humanities, we release our manually annotated dataset and codebase, and deploy the system via a public web interface.

Neural decompilers can recover readable and recompilable source code from binaries, but their predictions remain difficult to trust. Matching decompilation addresses this problem by searching for source code whose recompiled assembly exactly matches the target, providing stronger evidence of correctness. However, exact matching remains challenging for optimized binaries under unknown compilation configurations. We present Echo, a matching decompilation system based on trusted back-translation. Our key insight is to use compilation not only for verification, but also as trusted feedback to guide iterative search. Echo first uses a domain-specific model to generate candidate programs and compilation configurations. It recompiles these candidates, measures assembly-level similarity, and synthesizes promising code-configuration pairs. Remaining mismatches are then progressively repaired using rule-based rewriting, neural refinement, and reasoning-based refinement. We evaluate Echo on function-level benchmarks and the Mirai malware binary. Compared with the strongest baseline, Echo produces 2.43x more exact matches on average and achieves the highest structural similarity to ground-truth source code. On Mirai, Echo matches 2.75x and 7.4x as many functions as GPT-5.6 and Codex, respectively.

An important component of urban accessibility, particularly for wheelchair users and people with reduced mobility, is sidewalk compliance with measurable requirements. We test whether effective width, longitudinal slope, cross slope, and pavement condition can be assessed reliably from pedestrian-level imagery using vision-language models (VLMs). We present the first application of sampling-based conformal prediction (CP) for VLM-based accessibility assessment. We evaluate four VLMs on 514 sidewalk images from Seoul, South Korea, with field-measured ground truth. Conformal calibration attains the nominal 90% coverage for all models and attributes, but the calibrated regions differ in informativeness. Effective width yields the most informative estimates, with a mean interval half-width of about 1.0 m for the best model. Since every model overestimates width, asymmetric calibration shortens the intervals by up to 33% at unchanged coverage. Longitudinal slope is marginally informative, cross-slope intervals are too wide to resolve regulatory thresholds, and pavement-condition sets degenerate to all five grades (A-E) for three of the four models. Uncalibrated intervals from raw sampling dispersion cover only 17-47% of field-measured values at a nominal 90% level. Among the images with the most self-consistent responses, these intervals miss the field-measured value in up to 96% of cases. Response self-consistency is therefore not evidence of accuracy, and sampling dispersion cannot be interpreted as uncertainty until it has been calibrated against field-measured ground truth. No quantitative attribute reaches the precision required for general compliance assessment, but CP identifies from calibration data alone which attributes can support screening of segments far from the thresholds. We release the annotated pedestrian-level images and their corresponding field-measured attribute values.

We present a framework for evaluating data-science agents on live, continuously updated data using executable ground truth and format-agnostic factoid scoring. Consider this example query: "what were last week's audience sizes"---the reference answer changes as the underlying data changes, so static references become outdated and standard LLM-as-a-judge pipelines cannot verify responses against a fixed ground truth. Our central contribution, ground-truth-as-code, encodes each expected answer as an executable reference function that recomputes the answer directly from live data at evaluation time, ensuring the reference remains consistent with the system it describes. We combine this with a factoid-level, format-agnostic judge that decomposes both the agent's response and the computed ground truth into atomic claims and scores precision, recall, and accuracy over them, irrespective of the response format (prose, list, table, HTML, etc.). The approach is applicable to agents whose expected outputs can be expressed as executable data computations. We validate the framework through a human--LLM agreement study on an internally developed machine learning skill deployed in production, using a synthetic database constructed to reproduce production schemas and entity relationships. Relative to a natural-language ground-truth baseline, our method achieves a 29% improvement in the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC)---a class-balanced measure of agreement between expert annotators and LLM-as-a-judge predictions---and a 16% reduction in token consumption per test case, while a self-directed baseline lacking explicit ground truth is anti-correlated with human judgment. Agents that perform multi-source data integration and computation over non-stationary data are routinely deployed in industry; we propose ground-truth-as-code as a practical methodology for their evaluation.

Shape control of deformable linear objects (DLOs) is challenging for imitation learning because deformation behavior varies with material properties such as stiffness and elasticity, so a single policy must generate different action sequences for different objects even when the goal shape is identical. We propose a diffusion policy conditioned on material labels that are estimated online during manipulation. A recurrent estimation network predicts the material label of the grasped object from the time series of multi-view images and robot joint states, and the predicted label conditions the diffusion policy at every inference step. We collected 480 real-robot demonstrations covering four DLO materials and three groove-placement tasks, and compared per-material specialist policies, a task-conditioned policy without material labels, a policy conditioned on ground-truth material labels, and the proposed policy. Conditioning on ground-truth material labels improved the average success rate from 45.8% to 60.0% over the task-only policy, and the proposed policy reached 60.8% without any prior material information, matching the policy given ground-truth labels. A post-hoc analysis shows that the estimator extracts material-related information from the manipulation observations and that the diffusion policy responds to the resulting conditioning signal, while the one pronounced failure case is associated with persistent confusion between two similar materials.

Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) is a destructive pathogen of sweet corn and other cereal crops, causing yield losses and complicating early detection because symptoms are spatially variable and subtle. In sweet corn seed production, WSMV also has regulatory importance, as phytosanitary regulations from countries such as New Zealand and Chile require seed lots to be certified virus-free. Visual scouting is unreliable because symptoms can resemble abiotic stress, while enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is accurate but expensive, labor-intensive, and difficult to scale. We present an automated pipeline for plant-level WSMV detection using unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) multispectral imagery. The framework integrates orthomosaic reconstruction, geospatial alignment, plant extraction, and classification using a Vision Transformer with seven-channel inputs (five spectral bands, NDVI, and NDRE). Using treatment-based labels, the model achieved 89% accuracy on over 6,500 test patches across multiple growth stages. However, ELISA-based ground truth revealed substantial label noise: only a small fraction of sampled plants in inoculated plots were infected. Treatment labels therefore did not reliably represent infection status, and the high accuracy was largely driven by label bias rather than disease detection. Performance decreased markedly against row-level symptom severity and plant-level ELISA labels. Under these higher-fidelity but smaller-sample conditions, both deep learning and classical machine learning showed limited generalization and weak separability between ELISA-confirmed mock-inoculated and infected plants. These results show that UAS-based disease detection is constrained by label fidelity and data availability, emphasizing biologically grounded labels and models aligned with real-world conditions.

Road tunnels remove satellite visibility where connected and automated vehicles still require continuous, attributable, and integrity-bounded positioning. This Point of View argues that tunnel localization should be treated as infrastructure-assisted cross-modal track continuity, not as extrapolation from the last trusted satellite fix. A trusted portal satellite solution provides the global anchor, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) continuous motion evidence, cameras sparse identity and lane anchors, onboard sensing short-term dynamics, and edge computing association, fusion, integrity monitoring, and guarded reacquisition. Ground truth is reserved for offline calibration and validation. The article develops a falsifiable research and deployment agenda for progressing from synchronized multimodal evidence to validated, integrity-aware tunnel positioning continuity.

Dense retrieval systems increasingly rely on multi-billion-parameter language models, whose memory and computational requirements make large-scale indexing, frequent corpus updates, and low-latency serving costly. We present a three-stage training pipeline for developing compact and efficient retrievers that remain competitive with substantially larger models. The pipeline combines cross-lingual alignment, relational knowledge distillation, and contrastive fine-tuning. It requires no original ground-truth relevance labels, relying exclusively on supervision generated by strong embedding models and rerankers utilised as teachers. Using this pipeline, we develop PolDense and EuroDense, both supporting contexts of up to 8,192 tokens. PolDense is a family of six Polish retrievers ranging from 17M to 1B parameters. EuroDense is a 435M-parameter retriever supporting nine European languages. We conduct an extensive evaluation covering 41 Polish and 150 multilingual retrieval tasks. The results demonstrate strong quality-efficiency trade-offs. PolDense-1B outperforms the evaluated retrievers with up to 9B parameters, while the PolDense family forms the Pareto frontier across model sizes. Among the evaluated models below 1B parameters, EuroDense ranks first in both task-averaged and language-averaged performance and leads in seven of nine languages. We release all models publicly.

LLM agents for enterprise systems of record cannot be evaluated on customer production data, and no existing substitute provides ground truth. We present the Era by Eon Benchmark for evaluating LLM agents that use enterprise tools. The benchmark is built around a complete fictional company. It includes product simulators, company-specific internal databases, benchmark questions, and computed answer keys. Industry, company size, business model, application portfolio, and a seed define each company. One seeded entity graph supplies shared company data to simulators of Salesforce, Zendesk, Slack, Gong, and other products. A questionconditioned generator creates the schemas and records for internal databases. It takes shared entities, keys, and values from the same graph before generating database-specific facts. Both mechanisms therefore describe one consistent enterprise estate. Every expected answer is computed from the final records, so grading is exact. Design and answer-key checks validate the internal databases. A realism scorecard and adversarial detector validate the entity graph. Across 23 generated companies, the mean realism score rose from 61.8 to 97.0, with zero records flagged as synthetic. In the reported simulator-track comparison, nine models answered the same 33 questions three times each. Accuracy estimates ranged from 42.4% to 76.8%, and three of 36 pairwise differences remained supported after correction.

Pixel-level annotation of fixed traffic-camera imagery is expensive, while crosswalk models trained from street-level imagery face a substantial viewpoint and appearance shift when applied to elevated CCTV. We investigate a data-efficient target-domain pipeline using 241 manually annotated CCTV images and 5,926 unlabeled CCTV frames. A source-domain experiment trains a 31.0M-parameter custom U-Net on 3,300 first-person-view (FPV) images and obtains 93.05% IoU on its 330-image FPV test split. This result is a source baseline, not transferred performance: the released CCTV notebook instantiates a 42.0M-parameter DeepLabV3-ResNet50 from torchvision weights, and no compatible mapping from the U-Net checkpoint is implemented. Training on 201 manual CCTV images and selecting on 40 held-out manual masks yields 88.91% IoU. The model then predicts all unlabeled frames; image-level certainty and a largest-component area prior rank the candidates, and the top 1,000 attain mean certainty 0.976 and mean combined score 0.988. A repository audit shows that the reported second-stage 98.52% IoU was measured on a 150-image split containing only teacher-generated pseudo-masks. Because of a directory-layout mismatch, the executed combined-data loader found zero manual samples and split 1,000 pseudo-labeled samples into 850 training and 150 evaluation samples. We therefore report 98.52% as internal pseudo-label agreement rather than human-ground-truth accuracy. The defensible target-domain result is 88.91% IoU on the 40 manual validation images. Batch-one FP32 inference at 512 x 512 requires 12.98 ms, corresponding to 77.03 FPS, on an NVIDIA RTX A6000 48 GB GPU. These findings support the practicality of confidence-and-geometry filtering while also showing why pseudo-label evaluation must remain isolated from the labels used for self-training.

Large language models are increasingly used to support organizational decisions, yet users often lack a principled basis for assessing whether to rely on a specific recommendation. Existing approaches typically evaluate broad model properties, such as reliability, uncertainty, or robustness, or focus on user trust, rather than the underlying basis for relying on an individual recommendation. Adapting theoretical foundations from epistemology, we introduce epistemic warrant, a decision-level construct that characterizes the stability of a model's preference and the scope over which that preference holds. We operationalize this construct through a four-tier reliance certificate for pairwise recommendations, distinguishing among unstable, context-dependent, locally supported, and broadly supported recommendations. We validate the construct using contemporary methodologies: known-groups tests successfully recover expert-prespecified warrant orderings, and stronger warrants systematically align with independent consensus from crowd workers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that epistemic warrant provides information distinct from verbalized confidence and is not readily explained by decision difficulty. Ultimately, this framework offers a theoretically grounded, implementable approach for characterizing the warrant of individual LLM recommendations when objective ground truth is unavailable.

Supervised deep learning methods enable the rapid processing of ecological image data, but depend on a costly annotation process. Consequently, training labels are commonly derived from volunteer citizen science projects. However, disagreement among volunteers introduces uncertainty in the "ground truth" data that are assumed to be correct for model training and validation. Using two datasets containing camera trap images with associated volunteer and expert classifications, we investigated the effects of training under higher ground truth uncertainty. We observed improved overall test accuracy, particularly for images that were more difficult for volunteers. Species-level accuracy also generally improved, but generalisation to a different dataset did not. The benefits of ground truth uncertainty were enhanced by pre-training on ImageNet. Pre-training also reduced the number of training epochs required; further reductions in computational cost, but not gains in accuracy, resulted from additional pre-training on other camera trap images. With unbalanced training data, we still observed a clear benefit of increased ground truth uncertainty for overall accuracy, especially on difficult images. Class imbalance improved accuracy for common species, reduced rare species accuracy, and changed patterns of misclassification to more closely resemble mistakes made by volunteers. Our findings have implications for applying deep learning across ecological image types with multiple labels. Practitioners can improve accuracy, especially on difficult examples, by including moderate levels of label disagreement during training and using models pre-trained on general image data. In addition to improving the use of citizen science-derived labels in model training, our study suggests avenues for more effectively integrating human and deep learning classifications in combined workflows. (abridged)

Vision-language models (VLMs) have made substantial progress in long-video understanding, with standard backbone models typically answering questions from frames sampled across the full video. However, as videos become longer, the full-video context inevitably contains more question-irrelevant temporal content, which can distract the model from the evidence needed to answer a specific question. We empirically find that focusing the visual input on short annotated clue intervals containing question-relevant evidence consistently improves prediction accuracy across model scales compared with using the corresponding full videos, while requiring fewer input frames. Based on this finding, we introduce Clue-OPSD, a clue-privileged on-policy self-distillation framework for long-video understanding. During training, a full-video student learns from a self-teacher conditioned on the corresponding clue interval by aligning their next-token distributions along student-generated trajectories. Clue-OPSD thus uses clue intervals as privileged supervision without relying on ground-truth answer labels, while requiring no clue annotations or additional modules at inference time. Extensive experiments across multiple long-video understanding benchmarks and Qwen3.5 model scales demonstrate consistent improvements over the corresponding backbone models and strong performance against supervised post-training baselines.

Understanding hand-object interaction from egocentric vision is essential for modeling how people physically engage with the surrounding world. Yet reasoning about physically grounded interaction requires estimating the forces acting on hands and objects, beyond localizing contact. We present EgoPHI, the first method that jointly estimates dense contact maps and 3D force distributions on hand and object meshes from a single monocular RGB image and object geometry. To address the lack of scalable ground-truth force annotations, we introduce a physics-based simulation pipeline that augments existing hand-object datasets with dense per-vertex force supervision. EgoPHI then learns dense 3D contact and force on interacting hand and articulated object meshes, extending vision-based force estimation beyond image-space or planar settings. Our evaluation on in-distribution and out-of-distribution benchmarks shows that EgoPHI improves force estimation over existing approaches while generalizing to unseen datasets. To evaluate sim-to-real transfer, we constructed two physical objects that capture dense object contact and force magnitude and used them to record a dataset of interactions from eight participants across diverse touch and grasp types. Our results demonstrate that EgoPHI recovers meaningful 3D contact and force distributions in simulated, out-of-distribution, and real-world settings, advancing egocentric hand-object understanding from contact localization toward physically grounded interaction reasoning.

Fiber tractography's ability to reconstruct the brain's structural pathways, has made it a crucial component of modern neuroimaging, enabling detailed, non-invasive mapping of structural connectivity and supporting a wide range of neurological research and clinical applications. However, despite its importance, tractography remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity of white matter structure and its susceptibility to false positives, which can lead to the misrepresentation of critical pathways. To overcome these limitations, in this thesis, we propose a hybrid framework that integrates reinforcement learning with supervised learning for refining RL policies, specifically tailored for tract-specific tractography. Notably, our framework does not rely on ground-truth fibers for training. Moreover, the tract-specific formulation bypasses the need for an explicit segmentation process, simplifying the overall pipeline. Our work includes two main contributions, each building upon the previous. First, we introduce a hybrid approach that combines reinforcement learning with supervised learning (specifically, GPT-based policy learning) to refine policies in a tract-specific context. Second, we propose a scalable framework for data-driven multi-policy fusion, which leverages the complementary strengths of multiple RL policies to improve tractography performance and robustness. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through extensive validation on benchmark public datasets including TractoInferno, HCP, and ISMRM-2015, highlighting its ability to generalize across data sources and accurately reconstruct brain white matter tracts. We believe that these contributions represent significant advancements in the field of tractography, improving robustness, reliability, and accuracy while reducing dependence on ground-truth annotations.

Inferring the ground-truth from noisy crowdsourced labels is an important theoretical and practical problem. Neural network-based methods offer an alternative to classical Bayesian models which require specifying a family of generative models used for inference. However, current models either still rely on fairly simple generative models for inference or require pseudo-labels or synthetic data to train the aggregate classifier. We propose a graph VAE architecture in which the decoder and encoder use GAT-based message passing on the adjacency graph of a crowdsourced dataset and its dual, respectively. The ground-truth labels are treated as latent variables, enabling unsupervised representation learning without needing to train a separate classifier. We show our model achieves state of the art performance on crowdsourcing benchmarks. We then demonstrate the generality of our approach by showing how the original crowdsourcing graph can be augmented to incorporate side information such as representations from neural network classifiers trained on the noisy labels to substantially boost their classification performance at test time.

First-order concept synthesis asks a system to infer one formula that classifies labeled objects consistently across several finite relational structures. Every candidate can be evaluated exactly, but quantified first-order formulas form a vast search space, and LLM outputs are often semantically promising without being fully correct. We introduce Hypothesis Frontier, a verifier-guided neurosymbolic framework that evaluates each LLM formula on every training object, retains the strongest verified hypothesis across rounds, and uses its remaining errors to guide subsequent generation. Symbolic processing repairs invalid formulas while remaining anchored to the LLM-generated hypothesis, and simplifies train-valid formulas without changing any training prediction. Under matched models, problem sets, and LLM-round budgets, Hypothesis Frontier solves substantially more problems than repeated original-prompt generation. After the final formulas are selected, exact simplification shortens many train-valid formulas while preserving every training prediction. Exact symbolic reasoning therefore helps both to solve more induction problems and to compress many of the resulting formulas.

Production AI agents fail when their context sources -- system prompts, knowledge bases, tool descriptions, and procedural skills -- contain errors or gaps. Current maintenance relies on manual log review and ad-hoc debugging, creating a scalability bottleneck as interaction volume grows. We present TRACE (TRajectory Attribution for Automated Context Engineering), an automated feedback loop that mines historical agent trajectories to diagnose and remediate context failures. Our key insight is that trajectories are rich with implicit dissatisfaction signals -- user corrections, rephrasing, abandonment cues -- that reveal precisely where context sources failed, without explicit feedback collection. Unlike model fine-tuning, TRACE operates on the context layer, enabling rapid iteration without retraining. We make four contributions: (1) a trajectory mining framework that systematically extracts diagnostic information from historical agent executions; (2) multi-component causal attribution that extends textual gradients from monolithic prompt optimization to heterogeneous context sources (skills, knowledge bases, tools, prompts); (3) exploratory verification, where agents actively read context sources to distinguish content gaps requiring CREATE from stale content requiring UPDATE, achieving 96% operation accuracy; and (4) a reusable simulation methodology and verifiable benchmark addressing the absence of open datasets for context debugging, with a six-category fault taxonomy, ground truth annotations, and a cross-layer verification protocol. On 60 dissatisfaction traces spanning three complexity tiers (up to 16 execution nodes), TRACE achieves 72.7% root cause attribution and 82% end-to-end fix effectiveness, showing that over 80% of context-layer failures can be automatically diagnosed and remediated by mining historical trajectories, an overlooked resource in production systems.

Semantic segmentation models are trained and evaluated against human-drawn masks, yet remote-sensing annotations are often coarse, incomplete, or misaligned; high overlap scores may then reflect agreement with imperfect labels rather than faithfulness to the image, creating an evaluation paradox. We introduce Contrastive Mask Fidelity (CMF), a training-free, reference-free metric that scores competing class masks directly against image evidence. CMF composites keep and erase counterfactual views of each mask and asks a frozen vision-language judge whether class evidence is concentrated inside the mask and absent outside. We validate CMF on controlled mask corruptions, then audit 10,731 image-class pairs across ten remote-sensing benchmarks using candidate masks from Seg-Probe, a training-free open-vocabulary probe built on SegEarth-OV3 that outperforms prior baselines on nine of ten datasets. The audit reveals systematic, class-dependent annotation distortion: man-made classes such as buildings, roads, and cars favor the candidate mask on 62-85% of pairs, whereas ambiguous land cover more often favors human annotations. On a blinded three-annotator consensus, CMF matches expert judgment on 81% of pairs, exceeding keep-only scoring, model confidence, and a trained label-quality baseline. Finally, conservative class-wise arbitration yields supervision that improves cross-domain transfer over raw annotations and matched replacement controls, positioning CMF as a scalable tool for auditing ground truth rather than presuming it infallible.

Interactive video world models generate rollouts autoregressively under an action stream, yet they are trained and evaluated almost exclusively on factual prediction. We study counterfactual generation inside the rollout: given a trajectory the model has itself generated, what would have happened had the actions differed from step t* onward? We formalize noise-coupled twin rollouts --- a factual and a counterfactual branch sharing the generated prefix and the future exogenous noise sequence, diverging only in the action stream at an intervention point. Because the factual branch is self-generated, its exogenous noise is known exactly: the abduction step of Pearl's counterfactual procedure is exact by construction, sidestepping the approximate-inversion problem faced by editing-based pipelines. Noise coupling further turns the minimal-change principle into a per-sample verifiable property: we define a spatiotemporal locality metric that penalizes divergence outside the causal descendants of the intervention, computable against simulator ground truth without a learned judge. Forking the simulator state at t* yields ground-truth counterfactual re-renders, which we use as verifiable rewards for post-training. This note establishes the formal framework, metric definitions, and positioning; experiments are forthcoming.

Label-free reliability for vision-language models rests on invariance: perturb the input and a faithful reader's answer should not change. This has a known blind spot, a systematic misreading survives the perturbation and gets certified wrong, which we show is computable, not just real: an error is invisible to an edit exactly when the two commute, so the errors a suite cannot reach form its joint centralizer, a set that shrinks as edits are added and can be written down rather than guessed at. We act on the complementary relation, equivariance: edit a figure's data and the correct answer must change by a computable amount. Two matched edits are provably complete for affine reading errors; no suite of swap edits is complete for label permutations, and cyclic relabeling closes most of that gap. We instantiate the theory as the Equivariance-Consistency Score, a label-free, training-free detector, and release REND-EQUIV, pairing matched invariance and equivariance sets over identical data. The predicted ordering holds across three models and a hand-labeled population immune to the one circularity in how it is selected; a second invariance-family method confirms the blind spot belongs to the relation, not to any implementation; and cyclic relabeling delivers its predicted gain on a matched real sample. The same characterization explains a reported inversion of this ordering in the classifier metamorphic-testing literature: detectability is a joint property of the relation and the fault class, never of the relation alone.

The standard check for contamination in LLM backtests is simple: compare scores before and after the training cutoff. We show this check is uninformative. Four flagship models fail it on questions they cannot have memorized: every scored question resolved after their cutoffs. The reason is structural. Models legitimately know more about times near their cutoff, so recency mimics leakage, and we prove no passive backtest can separate the two from genuine skill. Measurement, not just detection, requires information from outside the backtest. We supply it in two forms. A known cutoff identifies leakage at the boundary; a matched clean control identifies it globally and yields a leakage-adjusted score. We also derive where leakage hides: it concentrates on outcomes that surprised the crowd and were well covered in training, and partial memorization is disproportionately rewarded. We validate the estimators against ground truth by planting leakage in twin models, where they recover the injected dose and return null on clean questions. Deployed on frontier models, they detect one cutoff-localized signature and, at the audit's power floor, clear five models whose apparent advantages were recency alone. Backtests need not be discarded; they need one defensible reference.

In digital dentistry and oral surgery, the registration of jawbone CT and intraoral scanner (IOS) data is essential for integrating internal bone structure with high-resolution dental surface geometry. However, this registration is challenging because the two modalities share only a limited region in common, and their true correspondence is generally unknown. This uncertainty has prevented rigorous quantitative evaluation of registration accuracy. In this study, we propose a pseudoIOS evaluation framework in which a point cloud emulating an intraoral scan is generated from CT data within the same coordinate frame, so that the transformation between them is known by construction and can serve as a true ground truth. Using this framework, we propose a coarse-to-fine registration method that combines a domain-generalizable local descriptor (GeDi) for initialization-independent global alignment with the iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm for local refinement, and also evaluate the influence of metal artifacts on registration. In experiments on seven cases, ICP alone frequently converged to local minima from a perturbed initial position, whereas GeDi$+$ICP maintained submillimeter mean absolute error (MAE) across all evaluated jaw and artifact conditions (0.55-0.69 mm). A three-way repeated-measures analysis confirmed that GeDi$+$ICP was significantly more accurate than GeDi alone. Metal artifacts had a statistically detectable overall effect, but their absolute impact on GeDi$+$ICP was small.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in task-oriented dialogue systems that support multi-step decision-making in high-stakes domains such as education, healthcare, and finance. However, existing benchmarks typically assume perfectly accurate tool outputs, overlooking the reality that deployed systems must operate with noisy tools and human decision-makers whose trust in the agent is itself uncertain. Such conditions are common in practice, for example, a clinician using a diagnostic prediction tool or an advisor relying on a model that forecasts student outcomes from historical records. We introduce PREDACTBENCH, a benchmark for evaluating dialogue agents paired with statistically imperfect tools, using education as a measurable testbed where ground truth outcomes and clear intervention decisions are available. First, we build a benchmark for AI-assisted human decision-making, where the AI uses noisy predictors to help guide a user. Second, we introduce episode-level Relative AI-Reliance (RAIR) and Relative self-reliance (RSR) metrics, extending prior trust calibration framework to multi-turn dialogue. Third, we evaluate 13 state-of-the-art closed and open source LLMs on two educational datasets, OULAD (real assessment trajectories from the UK Open University) and PREDACT-CS (60 courses with real final grade outcomes and synthetically generated weekly score trajectories), alongside a human study with instructors and teaching assistants. We find that when tools are noisy, SOTA models are supposed to provide visibility to teachers so that they do not over-rely on wrong suggestions or hallucinations, but current models fail to do that. We offer PREDACTBENCH to help build better LLMs as AI decision support systems to help teachers.

Evaluations of LLM-assisted qualitative coding almost universally measure model performance as agreement with human coders, a practice that presumes human coding is the standard to approximate. This study provides empirical evidence that the presumption fails in ways agreement metrics cannot detect. Five LLM systems and three trained human coders independently applied a 72-item hierarchical codebook to 2,560 educator messages from a K-12 AI platform. Beyond conventional agreement analysis, an independent domain expert judged 855 pairwise comparisons of code sets blind to source, treating human and machine sources symmetrically. The two evaluation approaches diverge in both directions. Human-LLM agreement (mean Jaccard 0.30) falls well below human-human agreement (0.52), which standard practice would read as inferior LLM coding, yet the blind verifier preferred human and LLM coding at indistinguishable rates (51.5% vs. 48.5%, p = 0.537), and a Bradley-Terry ranking placed two LLMs above two of three human coders. For several substantive codes, human consensus encoded shared bias that the verifier rejected in favor of the LLM interpretation. Agreement-based evaluation is therefore insufficient for automation decisions, and the study demonstrates a transferable verification protocol and a code-level division-of-labor framework.

Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis is a foundational tool for translating large-scale genomic data into biological insights, but typically yields hundreds of redundant terms that obscure overarching themes. Existing summarization tools rely on fixed similarity metrics (REVIGO, GOSemSim, clusterProfiler::simplify()), gene-overlap measures (Metascape), or static hierarchy mappings (GO-slim), and therefore cannot incorporate biological context. Manual curation provides context-aware grouping but is subjective and labor-intensive. A scalable, context-aware framework is needed to cluster GO terms into interpretable higher-order biological domains. Here we present LLMBDC (Large Language Model for Biological Domains Oriented Clustering of Gene Ontology), a training-free framework that leverages zero-shot semantic reasoning of LLMs with confidence scoring to cluster GO terms into BioDomains using only ontology information at inference time. Benchmarked across Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Fragile X syndrome (FXS) against six baseline methods including SapBERT, LLMBDC achieved substantially higher precision, recall, and clustering performance. Against ground-truth annotations, LLMBDC improved ARI from 9.7% to 73.3% (AD) and from 15.7% to 66.6% (FXS) over REVIGO, with corresponding NMI gains from 59.9% to 73.4% (AD) and 66.0% to 79.5% (FXS). A Cauchy combination test further confirmed that aggregated BioDomains retained statistically significant functional signals. LLMBDC provides a scalable, reproducible, and interpretable route to context-aware, system-level interpretation of GO enrichment results while preserving biological specificity.

LLM agents increasingly act as autonomous merchants that write their own product listings, and under competitive pressure, they fabricate attributes to win sales. Even under instructions to be honest, they fabricate attributes in a majority of listings across models. A platform's obvious remedy---verifying each claim against the truth---is unavailable, because it observes only a noisy, biased complaint signal, never the ground truth. We design CARP, a reputation-penalty mechanism with a deadband that forgives complaint noise and a state-dependent severity that counters reputation-driven detection erosion. CARP requires no product-level ground truth and is robust to strategic gaming. CARP protects consumers by suppressing the sales volume of low-rated liars while sparing honest sellers. Paired with SPARC, it closes most of the consumer-welfare gap relative to a perfect-information oracle, without ever accessing the truth. It also achieves the best welfare of the policies we compare. We further show that this felt penalty becomes behaviorally binding through SPARC, a byte-clean code-gated reflection mechanism: LLM merchants fabricate when lying is free but restrain themselves when fabrication costs them sales, a self-interested response rather than compliance. We trace this distinction to penalty-gated self-correction reasoning, and observe the binding across models, with supporting confidence intervals.

Appending a two-word confirmation tag to a decision question -- "Is X the better choice?" versus "X is the better choice, right?" -- changes whether a language model endorses the choice. We measure this tag effect on 20 frozen, ground-truth-free decisions between two defensible options, counterbalanced so a model's own preferences cancel, scored by exact match on clamped yes/no replies -- no LLM judge, no embeddings. Across 45 models the effect spans +32% to -32% -- a 64-point swing on one word -- with 5 models significantly sycophantic and 17 significantly resistant (BH-FDR q=.10). The sign is a clock: within model families the effect crosses from positive to negative as generations advance (GPT +4 to -28; Claude +7 to -32; Qwen and Grok likewise), roughly -6 points per year, a reversal robust to vendor tier; one lineage (DeepSeek) never crosses, and two releases during the study window (Claude Opus 5, Gemini 3.6 Flash) land on the trend out-of-sample. A full-panel ablation localizes the resistance as a double dissociation: a synonym tag reproduces each model's response almost exactly (r=0.89), while planting the same preference without a tag produces resistance in no resistant model (stance effects +6 to +49; r=0.23 with tag effects). The resistance is keyed to the surface construction of a tacked-on agreement bid, not the user's stance -- a pattern-match, not a principle. And the tag's polarity matters more than its presence: swap one word -- "X is the better choice, maybe?" -- and agreement rises above the neutral baseline in 45 of 45 models (+19.6 points), with ten models affirming both mutually exclusive options at 90-100%. Agreement tracks how sure the user sounds, in opposite directions at the two poles. The instrument is one word, one dollar, and judge-free; run per release, it reads the field's anti-sycophancy training directly off model behavior.

High quality reference data remain a critical bottleneck for crop-type mapping at any spatial and temporal scale. Operational systems such as WorldCereal aggregate labels from heterogeneous sources such as parcel registers, national databases, field surveys, and map-derived products, each with their own biases, coverage gaps and unknown label noise. Simple global rules are inadequate, since crop phenology and observation conditions vary strongly across regions and seasons. In this study, we focus on a single, operationally relevant question: whether embeddings produced through geospatial foundation models are a viable basis for cleaning the reference data. We propose a practical, locality-aware, embedding-based anomaly (EBA) detection framework that operates on the embeddings of a pretrained Earth-observation encoder. We score each labelled sample against other samples of the same crop in the same area using a pretrained embedding, flag the ones that stand out, and test whether removing or down-weighting them before training yields a better model. We establish that the flagged points are genuinely mislabelled or misplaced in two independent ways: against synthetic ground truth, the detector concentrates injected label errors 2.5-5x above chance in its flagged set (detection AUROC up to 0.84); and on real data, a model-independent test shows that removing or confidence-weighting the flagged held-out points raises measured accuracy in trained models, for both crop type and land cover. Acting on the flags then improves the WorldCereal crop-type model across five macro-regions, evaluated on a fixed held-out split under three views. We find conservative cleaning helps while over-cleaning hurts. The EBA detector approach is designed to be reproducible and extensible, and can serve as a template for cleaning large, noisy Earth observation reference datasets beyond crop mapping.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents, transitioning from static conversational interfaces to dynamic systems capable of complex reasoning, tool execution, and decision-making. However, the operational reliability of these agentic AI systems is fundamentally challenged by the absence of reliable ground truth in open-ended environments and the risk of increasing operational drift over time. To address this challenge, we propose and experimentally evaluate an agentic AI framework, designed to enforce autonomous integrity within LLM-driven systems. We design a self-calibration mechanism that mitigates drift and dynamically approximates ground truth by incorporating an ARIMA forecaster, without requiring continuous human oversight. To demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our methodology, we apply it to the complex domain of profiling the resource usage of zero-knowledge workloads in edge computing networks. Experimental results show that the proposed self-calibrating agentic framework successfully profiles the zero-knowledge workloads, achieving a higher accuracy than baseline LLM agents by 91.7% for resource usage prediction and improving the prediction speed by 71.7% compared to pure profiling, establishing a robust foundation for deploying autonomous AI in decentralized infrastructures. Furthermore, the ground truth generation using the proposed ARIMA leaping algorithm is 52% faster than a standard ARIMA forecasting algorithm, while achieving the same accuracy.

Benchmarks for LLM-agent memory typically generate conversations first and extract answer keys afterwards -- with documented label-error and contamination problems -- and they overwhelmingly measure short interaction histories. We invert the pipeline: a seeded life-script sampler emits facts with validity intervals, volatility classes, and source channels before any text exists; an LLM renderer writes chat and email from per-event fact manifests; a fidelity verifier confirms every planted fact; and questions are instantiated mechanically from the script, so gold answers are script-valid by construction and separately validated for answerability. The synthetic, fictionalized corpus (~380 questions, 15 types) embeds features absent from the benchmarks we survey: per-fact validity intervals, sent/received trust distinctions, injection probes in a benign harness, and as-of-date question sets. Benchmarking five memory architectures against a no-memory control (fixed answerer, versioned LLM judge, three replicates, two horizons), we find backend rankings invert with history length: the budgeted curated-map memory that leads at three weeks loses recall of evicted content by nine weeks (96% to 72%) while a provenance-typed graph rises to 90%; the inversion is positive for all six users under complete cross-family re-judging (exact p=0.031). A full-rendered-history baseline ties or exceeds the best memory system at the short horizon but shows no judge-independent advantage at nine weeks, at about twice the read cost. Write-stage quality strongly correlates with downstream quality (weakly-written facts fail 24% vs 2%), and injection resistance tracked whether provenance boundaries survive representation. A layered architecture performs best among the memory systems in both regimes (96.8% short-horizon) and is released as Veracium, an open-source library, with the corpus generator and harness.

Dynamic-scene reconstruction is almost always evaluated inside the observed time window, yet deployment settings such as AR overlays, robot interaction, and anticipatory planning need the future surface: the geometry at times beyond those captured. No standard benchmark measures this. We introduce FutureSurf, a controlled diagnostic benchmark and dataset for future-time surface reconstruction that trades scene diversity for exact future ground truth and falsification controls. A method trains on the observed first 75% of a sequence; we score its extracted per-frame surface on the held-out future by Chamfer distance, reporting absolute future CD as the primary score and the future/observed gap as a diagnostic. The dataset contains eight analytically defined controlled motions, including three falsification controls, with exact per-frame ground-truth meshes. We also provide a ground-truth-side recoverability oracle. The release includes split files, scoring code, a benchmark card, and Croissant metadata. On the controlled motions, the DG-Mesh backbone leaves a 2.7-4.1$\times$ gap even for futures predictable in principle (four of five recoverable from observed motion by a fixed rule), while the falsification controls behave as designed (the surface-invariant motion shows no gap). Beyond the contributed dataset, the gap persists across six animated DG-Mesh asset scenes and a second backbone, Deformable-3DGS (2.0-6.6$\times$; both share a deformation-MLP temporal model). The benchmark also shows that future rendering quality and future-surface accuracy are statistically decoupled, so the novel-view-synthesis metrics the field reports do not track future geometry. The future error is structured, concentrating where the surface moves. The dataset, evaluation toolkit, and scoring code are available on Hugging Face and GitHub (https://github.com/Ricky-S/futuresurf).

Natural-language autoencoders score explanations of hidden activations by reconstruction: an explanation is deemed faithful if the activation can be regenerated from it. The test is structurally insensitive to individual false claims: if flipping a claim does not change the reconstruction, the claim is never penalized. We show the test is passed in two ways, neither faithful. On a released Qwen-2.5-7B verbalizer, explanations reconstruct well above chance while ~2% of specific claims are reconstruction-dependent, so the score tracks gist, not specific facts. Under exact synthetic ground truth, the standard recipe develops co-adapted private codes (false wording the reconstruction depends on) in 5/5 runs, and fixes that leave the target model unchanged do not help. We contribute two audit protocols, the grounded-vs-true cross and the evaluator swap, and RECAP (Readable Encodings via Co-trained Auxiliary Predictors): linear heads trained alongside the target model to keep designated content decodable. On RECAP-trained sandbox models, fresh verbalizers state the designated content truly and the codes vanish, at a +0.001-nat cost. This replicates on a pretrained Pythia-160M: the content becomes reliably probe-decodable, though a fresh verbalizer conveys it only in part (truth 0.44-0.46 vs a near-zero control). For interpretability, high reconstruction does not certify individual claims. For AI safety, RECAP makes designated internal content independently checkable against probes rather than asserted by prose a model can game: an independent probe scores the verbalizer's true claims above its false ones (AUC 0.96, vs 0.82 without RECAP). Against an adversary that edits an explanation to maximize the reconstruction score while lying (suppressing ~87% of its lie penalty), the RECAP probe still flags the lies (AUC 0.95) while the control probe collapses to chance (0.51).

Detecting staypoints from raw trajectory data is fundamental to numerous spatial computing applications. This process transforms raw numeric sequences of geolocations into semantically meaningful locations, such as homes, workplaces, or restaurants. Despite its importance for semantic trajectory analysis, staypoint detection lacks standard benchmarks, and existing algorithms have never been systematically evaluated. This gap persists because no publicly available datasets provide both raw individual trajectories and ground-truth staypoint annotations. This benchmark paper addresses this limitation with two key contributions: (1) we introduce 16 large-scale simulated datasets capturing thousands of agents with annotated staypoints across varying trajectory noise levels, and (2) we evaluate nine staypoint detection algorithms-including both state-of-the-art and novel methods-to analyze their robustness to noise. Our evaluation reveals that existing state-of-the-art algorithms perform poorly under realistic noise conditions. Conversely, our proposed unsupervised methods yield substantial improvements, while supervised approaches drastically outperform existing baselines. While these results are very promising, these datasets and methods are only meant as starting points for future research in staypoint detection.

Computer vision models are increasingly used as measurement tools to estimate population-level quantities from large image collections, but prediction errors introduce bias and the resulting estimates lack statistical guarantees required in scientific applications. Prior work uses a Monte Carlo framework to combine model predictions with ground-truth annotations by sampling some images for humans to label and is able to provide unbiased estimates with controllable accuracy, but primarily addresses single-scalar estimation. We study the more general problem of multi-target estimation, where many quantities (e.g., class counts or proportions) must be estimated simultaneously, and adapt sampling and estimation strategies from survey sampling to this setting. Evaluations on five detection and segmentation datasets with 7-80 classes show that importance sampling excels with moderate annotation budgets or fewer targets, whereas uniform sampling with control variates is superior when estimating many targets or operating with minimal labels. Additionally, a subset-based ratio estimator remains highly competitive across all regimes. Ultimately, our framework effectively combines biased model predictions and limited human labels into rigorous scientific measurements.

Raw images inherently suffer from noise due to the stochastic nature of light and sensor hardware imperfections. As real photon counts fall, the ratio of this noise to the signal degrades; consequently, for low-light conditions, robust denoising is especially vital for high-quality results. While recent data-driven methods achieve strong performance, they typically rely on large-scale noisy-clean image pairs that are costly and difficult to collect. Alternatively, parametric noise models can generate synthetic training data, but this necessitates precise camera calibration, which is often impractical for unknown devices. In this work, we propose a camera-agnostic, calibration-free paradigm for low-light raw denoising. We identify that color bias from black-level error is a primary source of performance degradation and causes severe color shifts. To mitigate this, we introduce a bias estimator network that predicts the black-level error as a global feature of the noisy input. We evaluate our approach across the ELD, SID, and LRID datasets, demonstrating superior performance among blind denoisers, particularly in terms of color correction. In many cases, we are competitive with-or can even surpass-methods with stronger supervision. Furthermore, we reveal that the widely used SIDD dataset contains significant color bias in its ground-truth images, which yields unrealistic color reproduction in trained models. We introduce a new ground-truth extraction framework to resolve this issue and provide a benchmark of existing methods on the corrected dataset.

Many evaluations of model outputs rely either on contracts checkable at evaluation time or on feedback that arrives within the operating loop. We study the complementary setting in which ground truth is delayed, censored, or private, so deterministic code cannot check correctness at scoring time and must instead issue a code-owned provisional forecast. RouteCast instantiates this regime for model-generated typed strategic routes: models propose candidate routes and structured factors; point-in-time evidence, reference classes, and deterministic transformations produce a provisional forecast-ranking; later outcomes evaluate the forecast. In a retrospective venture pilot on 21 binary-outcome cases (6 positive, 15 negative), the whole-packet RouteCast score showed preliminary retrospective discrimination (AUC 0.756, 95% CI [0.471,0.980]), while a blind LLM judge reached AUC 0.678 [0.419,0.897] and an identity-exposed LLM judge reached AUC 0.761 [0.515,0.944], consistent with recognition- or outcome-related leakage risk. A preregistered decomposition ablation on the same binary subset found that converting the identical inputs into typed staged routes was indistinguishable from the whole-packet score (Delta AUC = -0.144, 95% CI [-0.471,0.176]) and from a deterministic heuristic (Delta AUC = -0.089, 95% CI [-0.412,0.278]). The pilot establishes an auditable feasibility result and exposes failure modes; it does not establish prospective calibration, causal decision improvement, route-decomposition advantage, or cross-domain validity.

Learning temporal logic specifications from system demonstrations is essential for tasks such as formal verification and controller synthesis, especially in safety-critical domains. Existing approaches typically assume demonstrations are correct or only affected by misclassification errors. In practice, however, system traces are often uncertain or incomplete due to sensor faults, measurement errors, or data loss. We present a framework for learning minimal Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formulas from demonstrations with uncertainty. Our approach models uncertainty via Hamming distance to generate possible estimates around each observed trace, which are grouped with constraints requiring that at least one trace per group is consistent with the learned formula. Our problem is then reduced to an equivalent Pseudo-Boolean Optimization. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art LTL learning approaches and show that it recovers specifications that more closely align with ground-truth formulas under uncertainty.

The lineage graph of open-weight language models is self-reported: Hugging Face's base_model metadata field is optional and unverified, and over 60% of Hub models document no parentage at all. Methods for detecting lineage from weights exist in the research literature, but each ships as paper code tied to one signal and one experiment; when a provenance dispute breaks, the analysis is redone by hand. This report describes modelDNA, a tool that fingerprints a model from roughly 100-300 MB of ranged HTTP reads (instead of a full 15 GB download for a 7B model), compares the fingerprint against a reference database of foundation models across four published signal families, and returns one of eight verdict classes with a calibrated probability, preferring honest abstention to confident error. On a benchmark of 15 real Hub models with org-documented parentage, judged against 8 candidate bases (13 positives, 107 hard negatives), the system achieves AUROC 1.0, zero false positives at its reporting threshold, and 13/13 correct top-1 parent attribution. The report's second contribution is merge decomposition. Every mainstream weight-merging method is (near-)linear per tensor, and fingerprint sample positions are deterministic functions of tensor identity, so a merged model's fingerprint is the same linear combination of its parents' fingerprints. Mixture weights can therefore be recovered from fingerprints alone by sum-to-one constrained least squares. Against merges with published mergekit configurations as ground truth, the method recovers a slerp merge's layer-interpolation curves at r = 0.999 and a dare_ties merge's mixture weights to within 0.011 of the published values, without downloading any weights beyond the fingerprints. All fingerprints, benchmarks, and the inferred lineage graph of 55 models are public and reproducible offline.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to reverse-engineering tasks, and recent threat-intelligence reporting shows them operating inside live offensive-security workflows. Claims about their capability, however, outpace our ability to measure it. Existing benchmarks for LLM-assisted binary analysis treat the construction of function-level ground truth as a solved pre-processing step and report accuracy without disclosing how many functions were reliably evaluable. We argue that the principal obstacle to fair evaluation is not model capability but the reliability of binary-to-source alignment under compiler optimization. This paper presents Reforge, a provenance-tracked pipeline that constructs function-level ground truth from C source through compilation, DWARF and syntactic extraction, alignment, and decompilation, and that operationalizes alignment uncertainty as an eight-gate confidence funnel with three-tier stratification. On a controlled micro-benchmark, high-confidence yield falls from 87.2% to 65.9% across optimization levels, and unpaired comparisons overstate optimization-induced performance decay through survivorship bias. A proof-of-concept evaluation of seven contemporary LLMs on function naming demonstrates the substrate and motivates uncertainty-aware benchmarking practice

Time-domain surveys generate many transient candidates, making Real-Bogus classification a critical step in automated discovery pipelines. Reliable labels are costly, while community labels can be noisy and survey-dependent. We aim to develop a Real-Bogus classification framework that can be trained without human-labeled data using injected transients and bogus-dominated survey data, remains robust under strong class contamination, and provides calibrated uncertainty quantification. We combine simulated transient injections with a contaminated survey class and train a dual-network model using asymmetric co-teaching for classes with different label-noise levels. We evaluate performance on a benchmark subset and analyze the learned representation with latent-space visualization tools. For uncertainty quantification (UQ), we compare MC dropout and deep ensembles and propose a low-cost hybrid strategy that exploits the dual-network setting to improve calibration. We extend the evaluation to the light-curve domain to assess recovery of light-curve classes. The method achieves strong Real-Bogus performance on the labeled subset and remains stable under severe class contamination. It recovers transient light-curve classes with high fidelity, while single-source identification is limited by ambiguity in light-curve-derived labels. Our hybrid UQ approach achieves competitive calibration relative to more expensive ensemble baselines. Latent-space analyses indicate that uncertainty aligns with the decision boundary and reveal subclasses within the bogus population. Our results show that injection-driven, weakly supervised training can enable scalable and consistent Real-Bogus classification without human-labeled training data while providing calibrated uncertainties. The method is suited for transfer to forthcoming surveys by re-running the injection-based training pipeline.

Existing video benchmarks evaluate action recognition on consumer videos, egocentric recordings, or simulated industrial environments. They do not test vision-language models under the visual and procedural conditions of real industrial CCTV, where workers appear as distant figures amid dust, steam, low light, glare, occlusion, and overlapping activities. We introduce STEELBENCH, a diagnostic benchmark for industrial surveillance that jointly evaluates per-worker activity recognition, safety-rule reasoning, and annotation provenance. SteelBench contains 1,345 densely annotated clips, curated from 149 hours of operational plant footage and 10,024 candidate clips using temporal deduplication, class balancing, and visibility-aware stratified sampling. Each clip includes dense per-worker action labels, PPE attributes, spatial context, and safety-rule annotations. Because model-assisted annotation can shape the labels later used for model evaluation, SteelBench includes a provenance-aware audit protocol. The protocol measures label influence, evaluates sensitivity to ground-truth provenance, and reports a human reference from expert-reviewed labels. Applying this audit, we find that unaudited VLM-sourced ground truth can inflate same-family model accuracy by up to 17 percentage points. Across nine VLMs from four architectural families, the best model reaches only 42.6% action accuracy, compared with an 84.6% human benchmark. Performance also fragments across recognition, robustness, calibration, and safety reasoning. Even when models predict the correct action, 37-58% of cases still yield incorrect safety judgments, and no model passes more than 2 of 5 diagnostic checks. The dataset is publicly available on Hugging Face.

Untargeted tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) detects thousands of small molecules per biological sample, yet most go unidentified because they are absent from spectral libraries. These uncharacterized metabolites and natural products are precisely the compounds that matter for drug discovery, biomarker research, and exposomics. Computational de novo structure elucidation could close this gap, but almost all state-of-the-art methods assume the ground-truth molecular formula is known, an oracle that does not exist for genuinely novel compounds and is itself predicted with substantial error. We present MARLIN, a de novo method that elucidates structures directly from a spectrum with no molecular formula at any stage. A self-supervised encoder predicts a molecular fingerprint from the raw peaks, and a block-diffusion language model generates candidate structures conditioned only on the fingerprint and the instrument-measured precursor mass. A provably safe mass-shell constraint keeps every candidate consistent with the measured mass without fixing the atom inventory, and candidates are accepted by exact parts-per-million mass agreement. A symmetric noise objective absorbs encoder error, and a candidate-diversity mechanism keeps the candidates from collapsing to a single structure. On the NPLIB1 benchmark, MARLIN is the strongest method evaluated without a ground-truth formula across exact-match accuracy, structural distance, and fingerprint similarity, and it recovers the correct molecular formula as a byproduct about as often as a dedicated predictor without ever using one. MARLIN enables reliable de novo structure elucidation in the realistic discovery regime where the molecular formula is unavailable.

Semantic caching reduces the latency and cost of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) by serving cached answers to semantically similar queries, but most existing methods do not model the time-varying freshness of open-web evidence. We present FreshCache, a three-tier semantic cache that treats cache reuse as a risk-constrained temporal inference problem: before approving a cache hit, FreshCache estimates the probability that the cached result is stale using a fitted exponential decay model enhanced by a learned MLP, and approves reuse only when that probability falls below a per-tier error budget across answers (epsilon = 0.10), URL lists (epsilon = 0.20), and page content (epsilon = 0.35). This allows the system to degrade gracefully as entries age rather than forcing a binary choice between a stale hit and a full pipeline execution. We introduce FreshCache-Bench, a benchmark of 8,072 base queries across five freshness classes with ground truth staleness labels drawn from real web snapshots at 1, 12, 24 hours, and 7 days after a baseline crawl, expanded to 31,201 queries via paraphrase generation. At the 24-hour evaluation window, FreshCache_MLP achieves 97% search API savings at 0.1% hash-based stale error, and an LLM-judge evaluation on 396 confirmed change pairs shows that only 34.3% of detected content changes actually affect answer correctness, placing true answer-affecting stale error at approximately 0.034%. The rule-based FreshCache achieves 98% search savings at 3.3% stale error under a temporal holdout calibration, outperforming SemanticTTL (14.9% stale, 72% saved), vCache (7.2% stale, 47% saved), and SCALM (5.2% stale, 96% saved). Ablations show the temporal risk gate accounts for an 11.6 point reduction in stale error over similarity-only reuse, and the learned MLP reduces stale error a further 3.2 points over the rule-based model.

As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses. While such methods exist, evaluating uncertainty at any resolution (token to an entire generation) is challenging and highly sensitive to label imperfections, making zero-noise benchmarks essential; yet, long-form generation benchmarks tend to rely on fallible labels rather than deterministic ground truth. We introduce Single-answer Atomic Long-form Target (SALT), a benchmark of six procedurally generated tasks with single deterministic long textual ground truths, enabling unit-level evaluation of correctness, calibration, and ranking without external judges. Equipped with SALT, our analysis of 50+ LLMs reveals key insights: We identify which confidence functions dominate each uncertainty aspect and show that confidence ranking largely breaks at atomic resolution, even when clearer separability emerges at coarser line-level units. SALT further enables controlled atom-level interventions throughout generation, revealing two separable drivers of future errors: propagation from corrupted prefixes, dominated by global context correctness, and bounded degradation from increasing answer-context length. Finally, we demonstrate that reasoning, via Chain-of-Thought prompting or internalized through training, introduces a trade-off, improving accuracy while degrading confidence ranking. These findings directly impact risk-critical applications requiring reliable error identification and mitigation.

The cost of human expert evaluation is a principal bottleneck to deploying language models in specialized, high-stakes domains. This is particularly acute for Arabic sociolinguistic knowledge: credible grading requires not only linguistic fluency but deep cultural familiarity that cannot be approximated by surface-level metrics. We address this with a cross-evaluation framework instantiated on two underrepresented Arabic dialect communities: Egyptian and Iraqi Arabic. We contribute 103 validated prompt-rubric pairs (70 Egyptian, 33 Iraqi; 53 Cultural, 50 Linguistic), authored and graded by native-speaker SMEs using penalty-weighted rubrics distinguishing positive content requirements from answer-specific negative error criteria. Three frontier LLMs serve as target models (graded by human SMEs across 302 unique prompt-response pairs), while five frontier LLMs serve as automated judges enforcing a provider-level self-evaluation guard. A dual-metric scheme combining Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) with Signed Mean Error separates directional grading bias from symmetric noise. Across 1,307 judge evaluations: GPT-5.4 is the most reliable judge (MADj = 10.21 pp, Signed Error = -1.12%); four of five judges show systematic leniency (+2.01% to +6.56%); Cultural tasks are harder to grade than Linguistic tasks for all judges (MAD gap 1.83-4.78 pp); and models substantially outperform on Egyptian prompts compared to Iraqi prompts. However, given leniency differences between Iraqi and Egyptian SMEs, we cannot solely attribute this gap to model knowledge. We therefore emphasize findings that do not assume identical leniency across human graders. Across all samples, implicit cultural reasoning -- requiring models to simulate native-speaker judgment rather than rely on lexical verification -- emerges as the primary failure mode for automated grading across all judge models.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for training LLMs typically rely on ground-truth answers to assign rewards, limiting their applicability to tasks where the ground-truth solution is unknown. We introduce a \textbf{R}anking-\textbf{i}nduced \textbf{VER}ifiable framework (RiVER) that trains LLMs on score-based optimization tasks without ground-truth solutions, using deterministic execution feedback as continuous-valued supervision. When applying group-relative RL to such continuous rewards, we identify two key challenges: \emph{scale dominance}, where uncalibrated score magnitudes across test instances distort policy updates, and \emph{frequency dominance}, where repeatedly sampled suboptimal solutions can outweigh rare but stronger candidates. RiVER addresses these challenges with calibrated reward shaping that uses instance-wise comparisons and emphasizes top-ranked solvers while retaining bounded feedback for other valid solutions. We train on 12 AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks and evaluate on Algorithm Engineering Benchmark (ALE-Bench), LiveCodeBench, and USACO. RiVER advances Qwen3-8B and GLM-Z1-9B-0414 by 8.9% and 9.4% in ALE rating rank. More importantly, despite training exclusively on score-based tasks without any ground-truth solutions, RiVER also improves the backbones across exact-solution benchmarks such as LiveCodeBench and USACO by an absolute average improvement of 2.4% and 3.5%. By contrast, baselines trained with raw execution scores improve ALE rating but fail to transfer to exact-solution benchmarks. These results suggest that score-based optimization tasks, combined with proper reward calibration, can serve as effective training environments for general coding ability without ground-truth solutions.

Modern generative world models render increasingly realistic action-controllable futures, yet they frequently hallucinate: rollouts remain visually fluent while drifting from the ground-truth dynamics. We hypothesize that hallucination concentrates in low-coverage regions of the state-action space, where lightweight data-centric signals can both detect it and guide mitigation. To test this, we introduce MMBench2, a 427-hour, 210-task dataset for visual world modeling with ground-truth actions, rewards, and live simulators, and train a 350M-parameter world model on it. We identify three distinct hallucination modes: perceptual, action-marginalized, and scene-diverging -- each anchored to a different stage of the pipeline, and develop three signals that accurately predict where the model will fail. To close coverage gaps at training time, we develop a coverage-aware sampling technique; to close them online, our hallucination predictors serve as curiosity rewards for targeted data collection, yielding a data-efficient finetuning recipe that adapts the pretrained world model to entirely unseen environments with as few as 50 real environment trajectories. Overall, our findings reveal that hallucination in world models is inherently a data coverage issue, and that the same signals used to detect it can also be used for mitigation. An interactive web version of our paper is available at https://www.nicklashansen.com/mmbench2

External indexes can be used for cluster evaluation when ground truth is available. We review the most common external validity indexes focusing on set-matching-based measures. We recommend centroid index (CI), because it is an intuitive cluster-level measure with an explainable result. If we need a more fine-tuned, point-level measure, there are more choices. Pair-set index (PSI) provides a normalized score which is not biased by cluster sizes. If all points should matter equally, then clustering accuracy (ACC) or any other set-matching measure is suitable.

Reliable structural health monitoring (SHM) of offshore wind turbine (OWT) support structures requires fast state estimation from sparse measurements. Repeated high fidelity finite element or aeroelastic analyses are difficult to use directly in online monitoring loops, while purely data-driven surrogates can require large training sets. This paper presents Digi Turbine, a synthetic reliability-aware Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) benchmark for OWT monopile support structure monitoring. The workflow embeds a simplified Euler Bernoulli beam equation with Winkler soil foundation in the training objective, couples it with Bayesian-prior-informed inverse identification, and adds First Order Reliability Method (FORM) screening. All validation uses synthetic configurations with analytical or finite-difference ground truth motivated by the NREL 5MW reference turbine context.

We propose Hedgementation: a new benchmark to evaluate machine learning models for hedgerow mapping from remote sensing data at country scale and 10m$^2$ spatial resolution. We combine and harmonize multiple remote sensing data products and ground truth labels sourced from a hedgerow inventory in France. We measure the ability of three baseline models to generalize across spatial distance, and across climatic zones, a more explicitly challenging task. Our benchmark tests both supervised and self-supervised learning approaches for remote sensing, applied to tracking fine-scale features of high agricultural importance. The code to reproduce the benchmark and baselines results is available at https://github.com/hedgementation/hedgementation.

One way to understand LLM behavior is to trace its output back to the training data. Two types of measures are commonly used for output tracing: data-similarity and data-influence. The former is cheaper while the latter is believed to be more accurate. Even though many works have compared them for ground-truth tasks, no such comparisons exist for output tracing. Here, we fill this gap and precisely quantify the commonalities and differences between the two measures. We do this by first ranking the training documents according to each measure and then computing the overlap between the two rankings. Our main finding is that the two rankings agree significantly, but there is an asymmetry between them: The top documents of data-similarity are assigned more consistent ranks by data-influence than the other way around. This result is valid across a range of experiments involving OLMo2-1B, Qwen3-1.7B, LlaMa3.2-1B, Gemma3-1B, and GPT2. We exploit the asymmetry to obtain a favorable cost-accuracy trade-off by using the costly data-influence to refine the results of data-similarity.

Medical image segmentation is a fundamental task for medical image processing and computer-assisted intervention, yet data imbalance and small lesion detection pose significant challenges. Dice Loss, which measures the overlap between predicted and ground truth regions, is widely used to mitigate these issues. To further emphasize its properties, we propose Polynomial Dice Loss, a polynomial extension of Dice Loss. Specifically, by leveraging the geometric characteristics of Dice Loss and formulating the loss function as a polynomial representation via Taylor expansion, we enable the adjustment of the contribution of higher-order components to the loss function. In our experiments, we evaluate the proposed method against loss functions derived from conventional Dice and Tversky coefficients. Experimental results and further analysis show that the polynomial formulation provides a simple way to control the loss shape and achieves competitive performance across multiple segmentation settings.

Online learning is crucial for handling complex data streams in big data applications. Recent research has begun to focus on dynamic scenarios, i.e., non-stationary environments. However, a crucial yet often overlooked aspect is label latency, where new data may not receive labels in time due to the slow and expensive labeling process, thus hindering rapid adaptation to dynamic environments. To resolve this impasse, we propose Dual-Track Geometry Online Learning (DT-GOL), a novel framework that shifts from temporal compensation to spatial reasoning to bridge the supervised latency gap. By modeling the delay challenge as a semi-supervised task, we leverage real-time topological evolution of features as a reliable geometric surrogate for unobservable conceptual changes to achieve proactive supervised adaptation within the delay window. Unlike rigid self-training, we introduce a dynamic evidence calibration mechanism that distills geometric information into soft labels that perceive uncertainty, effectively mitigating the confirmation bias inherent in hard pseudo-labels. Furthermore, to resolve the stability-plasticity dilemma, we design a decoupled dual-track architecture in which a master learner serves as a stable anchor, updated strictly from delayed ground truth, while a transient branch leverages soft geometric knowledge for low-risk forward adaptation. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DT-GOL significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art baseline methods, especially in scenarios with concept drift.

Explanation requires ground truth: to verify an account of a system we must know its inner functioning-just what is missing where explainable AI (XAI) is most needed. Systems we can study fall into two camps. Simple, procedural one-decision trees, rule lists, sparse linear models-have a known but trivial mechanism, so explaining them tests nothing; genuinely complex ones-deep networks, real-world tasks-need XAI but have no ground-truth inner functioning, so an explanation can be plausible, confident, and wrong with no way to tell. We remove this dichotomy with a study object both genuinely complex and fully specified-inspectable by construction-and, so gradient methods apply, fully differentiable. We reimplement the Atari 2600 Video Computer System (VCS)-a real computer architecture, and the cradle of deep reinforcement learning-as two independent end-to-end differentiable emulators in Julia (jutari) and JAX (jaxtari), each validated bit-for-bit against xitari. Both reproduce xitari on all 64 supported Arcade Learning Environment (ALE) games: 64/64 byte-identical RAM and 64/64 pixel-identical screens. Treating the cartridge ROM as a weight tensor, RAM as a soft tape, and control flow as gates, we prove the differentiable (soft) execution equals the original (hard) one bit-for-bit in the forward pass at any finite temperature, while exposing surrogate gradients where the bit logic has none. The JAX port also opens a GPU path: batched differentiable rollouts reach millions of environment-steps/s on one commodity GPU. The system was built in roughly 137 active hours over 29 calendar days, much of it written autonomously by coding agents. This paper builds and validates the foundation, showing-theoretically and in a qualitative gradient study-that gradient-based XAI on it is feasible. Both ports' full code is available under the MIT license at https://github.com/akmaier/UnderstandingVCS.

The defensive performance of football players is commonly measured through a limited number of actions like tackles and interceptions while their continuous impact through positional behaviour has hardly been studied before. We formulate this problem as an attribution over multi-agent spatiotemporal trajectories without player-level ground truth labels, where event-level changes of expected threat are distributed among individuals. We propose a framework that performs this attribution using player involvement scores calculated from defensive pressure areas (DPAs). By computing role-conditioned baselines within automatically detected team structures, we can determine each defender's expected responsibility for threat created through arbitrary passes. The validity and robustness of this approach are evaluated on a uniquely extensive cross-gender and cross-competition data set, including positional and event data from 64 matches of the men's World Cup, 116 matches of the women's German Bundesliga and 336 matches of the men's German 3. Liga. In the absence of a ground truth, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines multiple relatively weak proxies into robust summary scores. We find a validity score that is improved by around 1 standard deviation compared to the best action-based metric and demonstrate that many popular measures show limited validity. The "blame" for conceding high-value actions shows especially strong correlations with external ratings and market values, making it the first published metric in football to reliably measure positioning errors. All code underlying this work is publicly available to support reproducibility and further research.

Video generative models ( VGMs) have become a new frontier that can be used not just for video generation but for a multitude of downstream tasks, including world modeling. To advance these tasks, a good video model must understand the physical reality of the world. Evaluating this understanding is an emerging field and has led to the Physics-IQ benchmark, which quantifies this explicitly by comparing model-generated videos to real-world videos of physical experiments. In this work, we present a systematic audit of the Physics-IQ benchmark, expose shortcomings and propose three solutions that sharpen how we can measure physical understanding of VGMs. Specifically, we improve prompt and ground-truth quality to reduce the influence of confounding factors and further introduce a sample-level scoring system that weights each sample and metric equally. Our resulting benchmark, Physics-IQ Verified, refines 57.6% of all samples and improves over 34.8% of prompts. In a comparison study using six image-to-video generative models, we observe moderate but meaningful ranking changes (Kendall's $τ= 0.46$). We hope Physics-IQ Verified advances the community by providing a more reliable signal toward physically accurate VGMs. The code for the benchmark can be accessed at https://github.com/google-deepmind/physics-iq-benchmark

Large language model agents are increasingly integrated into map services. Since map services are embedded in everyday-life scenarios rather than professional task settings, users often express their needs informally, resulting in underspecified queries with many unspoken needs, namely, implicit decision factors that are critical for user satisfaction. Although clarification is an effective way to mitigate this issue, it increases user burden in daily interaction, and a capable agent should first proactively recover such factors from available information sources. However, evaluating this ability is challenging. The first challenge is to determine which implicit decision factors are suitable for evaluation. A factor is evaluable only if it affects user acceptance and can be recovered from information available to the agent before it responds. Second, user satisfaction cannot be reliably represented by a single reference answer, requiring a benchmark that converts satisfaction-relevant factors into objective and quantifiable evaluation targets. To address these challenges, we propose a restore-identify-filter framework that reconstructs complete user needs from behavior-chain evidence, identifies implicit decision factors, and retains only those supported by pre-query evidence. Building on this methodology, we construct MapSatisfyBench from large-scale, real-world anonymized user data and annotate ground truth from five dimensions and enables full-chain evaluation of satisfaction-aware map agents. Experiments show that current agents generally perform well on explicit task completion, but remain limited in satisfying implicit decision factors and proactively acquiring the evidence needed for satisfaction-aware decisions. These findings establish MapSatisfyBench as a benchmark for shifting map-agent evaluation from task completion toward satisfaction-aware spatial decision making.