Longitudinal Medical Image Analysis

Accurate breast cancer risk prediction from screening mammography is critical for enabling personalized screening intervals and early detection. Recent deep learning methods have shown the value of longitudinal data and explicit temporal alignment. However, existing approaches either perform explicit alignment using a single mammographic view or model multiple views without explicit longitudinal alignment, limiting their ability to exploit the complementary spatial-temporal information used in clinical practice. To address this gap, we propose LMV-Net, a longitudinal multi-view breast cancer risk prediction model that jointly analyzes anatomically complementary CC and MLO views within an explicitly aligned longitudinal framework. We evaluate our approach on the public EMBED and CSAW-CC datasets, comparing it to state-of-the-art breast cancer risk prediction methods. Our model consistently outperforms existing approaches in overall risk prediction performance and across different breast density and cancer subgroups. Importantly, these improvements highlight the potential of longitudinal multi-view modeling to enhance risk stratification, paving the way for future work on personalized screening, earlier identification of high-risk patients, and more efficient screening resource allocation. The code is available at https://github.com/sot176/LMV-Net.

Forecasting the future anatomy of slow-evolving neurodegenerative diseases could enable earlier, more targeted intervention and improve clinical trial design, but it remains challenging because true progression signals are subtle in longitudinal MRI. In this low-signal regime, transferring modern generative sequence models directly is unreliable: training is dominated by stable baseline anatomy and confounded by dense, sample-specific nuisance variation. We first provide a theoretical analysis that explains these failures through two modes. Identity collapse occurs when optimization is driven toward reproducing the current anatomy, which prevents the model from learning faint temporal change. The continuous interpolation trap arises when standard smooth networks cannot separate localized biological drift from pervasive noise, which leads to spurious changes that diffuse across the volume. To address both issues, we propose Latent Drift, a progressive generative framework that learns change in a compressed semantic representation rather than synthesizing full-resolution anatomy. This design removes pixel-level identity from the prediction target and concentrates model capacity on progression-relevant dynamics. We further apply Finite Scalar Quantization to the learned change representation, which suppresses small, high-frequency nuisance fluctuations while preserving consistent structural drift. Experiments on longitudinal 3D brain MRI show that Latent Drift improves patient-specific neuro-forecasting over diffusion and autoregressive transformer baselines across generative fidelity and clinically relevant evaluation metrics. Project page: https://cutepkq.github.io/latent-drift.

In longitudinal Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis support, clinical and imaging information is often collected at irregular visits. Integrating these multimodal observations may improve diagnostic assessment, but naive fusion can degrade performance when MRI is noisy or intermittently unavailable. We propose AT-Attn, a temporal-aware multimodal framework that combines Change-and-Time encoding, time-biased asymmetric cross-attention, and gated fusion to integrate MRI with longitudinal clinical information. We evaluate AT-Attn on an MRI-retained ADNI cohort of 1,520 patients using structural MRI, six cognitive-scale trajectories, and seven static clinical variables under patient-level five-fold cross-validation. The main asymmetric AT-Attn model achieves accuracy 0.719+/-0.024, macro F1 0.721+/-0.023, ROC-AUC 0.873+/-0.013, and PR-AUC 0.783+/-0.018, outperforming unimodal and naive multimodal fusion baselines while remaining competitive with strong tabular baselines. These results suggest that a temporal-aware and constrained fusion strategy can help structural MRI contribute clinically relevant complementary information for patient-level AD diagnosis support.

In patients with breast cancer, pathological complete response (pCR) has been established as a clinically meaningful surrogate marker for long-term outcomes. While commonly treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT), effective treatment decision-making remains challenging, as therapeutic response can vary substantially across patients, calling for predictive models capable of accurately estimating individualized treatment response. To address this, we propose an imaging-based 3D spatio-temporal framework for treatment response prediction that integrates a state-of-the-art graph neural network with relational modeling of temporal interactions across timepoints alongside three novel complementary self-supervised treatment trajectory representation learning objectives. Experiments across a cohort of 585 patients from the public ISPY-2 dataset demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms both vision and self-supervised learning baselines across several classification metrics. Alongside establishing a breast cancer pCR prediction benchmark, we include a principled ablation of our method and further introduce and empirically assess the impact of the available number of DCE-MRI timepoints per patient trajectory and the inclusion of inter-scan time-differences. Overall, our study substantiates the utility of clinically meaningful longitudinal medical imagaging modeling for predicting NACT-induced pCR. We will publicly share our code repository and a user-friendly PyPI library for dataset curation upon publication, effectively promoting reproducible open-source research.

Pathologic complete response and tumor shrinkage measure whether breast cancer responds to neoadjuvant therapy, but not whether that response was structurally favorable, persistent, or hidden beneath volume loss. We built an outcome-blind longitudinal DCE-MRI manifold from I-SPY2 trajectories to test whether pretreatment imaging carries a structural response phenotype missed by conventional descriptors. The dominant axis of response geometry was not recoverable from the full clinical and genomic stack -- age, receptor subtype, MammaPrint, PAM50, treatment arm, and tumor burden -- but became strongly recoverable once baseline structural entropy was added. A constrained representation mapping recovered the same axes as unconstrained decomposition, establishing the structure as intrinsic rather than a post-hoc interpretation. The phenotype persisted through therapy, and as treatment proceeded the volumetric signal faded while entropy stayed separated -- a crossover from burden to structural persistence. Among complete responders, structurally disordered tumors could shrink more early yet remain structurally disordered, a volumetric deception invisible to endpoint labels. External analyses in UCSF, I-SPY1, and Duke established recurrence relevance under representation-dependent boundaries, and a representation-family commensurability assessment showed why feature-name matching is insufficient: the same label can fail, transport, or entangle with extraction geometry. Pretreatment MRI therefore exposes a structural response phenotype that endpoint-based language leaves invisible -- including, among complete responders, a pretreatment imaging signal of structurally distinct response states that awaits prospective validation.

Radiologists routinely compare current and prior chest X-rays to track disease progression, producing follow-up reports that describe multiple findings, each localised to an anatomical region and annotated with a temporal change status. Existing automated methods either generate reports from a single image without modelling temporal context, or incorporate temporal information but do not ground their outputs spatially. The few approaches that combine temporal reasoning with spatial grounding are restricted to single-finding descriptions, leaving multi-finding reports with mixed change directions unaddressed. We present GRCD, a framework for grounded report generation from chest X-ray pairs in the multi-finding setting. We first construct a rigorously cleaned dataset of temporal chest X-ray pairs by identifying and correcting two systematic labelling errors in the source annotations. We then introduce a Region-Guided Change Token module that encodes per-region temporal change across anatomical structures and injects this signal into a language model through a dual-pathway strategy combining prepended spatial tokens with gated cross-attention. On a multi-finding test set, GRCD outperforms existing baselines on text generation and clinical accuracy metrics, with gains in change detection. Ablation studies confirm that the dual-pathway design outperforms either integration strategy in isolation on text and clinical metrics, and that region-level change encoding is necessary for multi-finding generation. Code is available at https://github.com/UTSA-VIRLab/GRCD

Therapy-induced cardiotoxicity is the leading non-oncological cause of treatment interruption in breast cancer patients, yet early, automated risk stratification from routine cardiac imaging remains an unsolved problem. We present EchoRisk, the first curated, multicentre, longitudinal echocardiography dataset with explicit cardiotoxicity labels, released as the primary technical reference for the EchoRisk-MICCAI 2026 challenge. The dataset comprises 422 patients enrolled in the EU-funded CARDIOCARE prospective study across five European sites, yielding 2,159 echocardiography videos across 1,123 clinical exams acquired at up to five longitudinal timepoints, alongside a dedicated cohort of 280 patients with baseline imaging for early cardiotoxicity prediction. Three clinically grounded tasks are defined: automated estimation of left ventricular ejection fraction from cine video (Task 1), classification of LV dysfunction from longitudinal imaging (Task 2), and early prediction of therapy-induced cardiotoxicity from pre-therapy baseline echocardiography alone (Task 3). For each task we specify the evaluation protocol, primary and secondary metrics, and ranking procedure. We establish baseline performance using an R(2+1)D video backbone with LSTM aggregation trained from Kinetics-400 pretrained weights, demonstrating strong discriminative performance for cardiac functional assessment and LV dysfunction classification, while early cardiotoxicity prediction from a single pre-therapy video remains a significant open problem for the community. The dataset, evaluation code, and baseline implementations are publicly available to serve as a benchmark for further collaboration, comparison, and the creation of task-specific architectures in cardio-oncology.

Longitudinal glioblastoma response assessment requires comparing subtle tumor changes across MRI time points using structured clinical criteria such as RANO. However, most deep learning methods predict response labels directly from imaging features, which limits clinical inspection, verification, and correction. We introduce TRACE, a RANO 2.0-aligned concept bottleneck model for interpretable 4-class glioblastoma response classification on longitudinal 3D MRI. TRACE processes paired baseline and follow-up multimodal MRI scans with a shared 3D vision encoder, predicts clinically meaningful tumor measurements as root concepts, computes downstream RANO-derived concepts through deterministic rules, and incorporates scan interval and new-lesion information as passthrough concepts. This design frames response assessment as structured concept reasoning rather than direct image-to-label prediction. Using 5-fold patient-wise cross-validation on the LUMIERE dataset, TRACE achieves a 4-class macro F1 of 0.4769 and a binary progression-versus-non-progression macro F1 of 0.7085. It improves over a concept bottleneck baseline and remains within the range of published non-interpretable deep learning approaches. Ablation studies show that the expert RANO graph and intervention-consistency training are important for performance, while intervention experiments demonstrate that correcting concepts can improve downstream predictions. These results suggest that structured concept bottlenecks offer a transparent and clinically aligned direction for longitudinal glioblastoma response assessment, while highlighting the need for larger protocol-aligned datasets and external validation.

Forecasting longitudinal brain lesion evolution is critical for disease monitoring and treatment planning. Existing approaches typically learn a direct mapping from a baseline image to a future observation, without explicitly modeling the physical mechanisms underlying the lesion progression. Such an entangled modeling of structural deformation and image intensity variation limits physical plausibility, model generalization, and interpretability. To address this, we propose PDF, a Physics-grounded Disentangled Flow matching framework for longitudinal brain disease forecasting. We explicitly decompose the longitudinal modeling of lesion growth into two processes, each learned by a dedicated flow matching network: morphology evolution, which captures lesion growth and structural deformation; and intensity evolution, which models signal changes driven by variations in lesion concentration. To enforce physics-grounded constraints, we introduce a PDE-regularized loss based on lesion growth dynamics, that enforces a diffusion-reaction-advection formulation for morphological evolution. Experiments on three public longitudinal datasets spanning diverse brain diseases demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, validating the effectiveness of the disentangled modeling framework and physics-grounded learning design. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jhuldr/PDF.

In longitudinal clinical practice, every chest X-ray is read in the context of the patients prior exam, and much of what the radiologist communicates is the change from one visit to the next. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first training-free best-of-N sampling scheme for pre-trained chest X-ray report generators that is explicitly aware of this longitudinal prior to current transition. We call it transition-aware best-of-N sampling, each report is split into sentences and embedded into an unordered set in Rd; each (prior, current) pair is reduced to a fixed-dim directional vector via a set-to-set distance designed to encode the change between the two sets; and candidates are scored by cosine distance from their candidate transition vector to a cached bank of ground-truth training transition vectors, aggregated as min or kNN. We instantiate the framework with four directional set distances (mean-shift, novelty residual, directed-Hausdorff anchor, and cost-weighted optimal transport) and evaluate on a multi-visit AP-PA cohort, running inference under three prompts on three vision-language generators. Transition-aware best-of-N outperforms random selection across the board, with the largest relative gains on the Impression section.

While longitudinal brain PET imaging is the gold standard for quantifying the spatiotemporal accumulation of Beta-amyloid, its widespread clinical utility is constrained by high operational costs and cumulative radiation risks. Recent deep generative models show promise in longitudinal image synthesis; however, they often fail to capture subtle pathological progression due to identity drift and a persistent bias toward trivially replicating baseline signal intensities rather than modeling temporal transition. To this end, we propose Delta-Diffusion, a novel progression-aware framework that redefines longitudinal PET synthesis as a conditional Poisson Diffusion Bridge (PDB) process. Unlike standard diffusion models that start from Gaussian noise, our PDB formulation is mathematically anchored to the subject's baseline PET, effectively transforming the generative task into a conditional distribution transition of the amyloid trajectory. To handle heteroscedastic nature of PET imaging, we introduce a physically-grounded Poisson perturbation within a Diffusion Transformer (DiT). This architecture uses adaptive scale-shift modulation to precisely calibrate the synthesis with the elapsed clinical interval and structural MRI context. A volume-of-interest balanced objective is designed to emphasize sparse, high-risk regions of amyloid accumulation. Validated on two cohorts with 542 subjects, Delta-Diffusion demonstrates superior performance in capturing longitudinal variations in amyloid deposition compared to state-of-the-art methods, offering a robust computational framework for tracking disease progression.

We introduce SMART, a framework for learning a flexible, interpretable, and scalable spatio-temporal brain atlas from longitudinal high-resolution 3D medical images. Existing approaches to spatio-temporal atlas construction rely on black-box generative models that lack flexibility, limit interpretability, and struggle to scale to high-dimensional data. SMART addresses these challenges by learning a continuous disease-time atlas that decouples global group-wise disease dynamics from their patient-specific anatomical manifestation. Guided by anatomically inspired priors, SMART models interpretable global trajectories of regional progression along a shared disease timeline through region-specific differential equations. Global trajectories are further personalized to individual anatomies via dense diffeomorphic displacements parameterized by a flexible and scalable multi-scale Neural Cellular Automata. Evaluated on five longitudinal MRI datasets in Alzheimer's disease (ADNI-1/GO/2, OASIS-3, AIBL; > 1,300 subjects), SMART produces anatomically meaningful predictions of disease progression and achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy and improved temporal consistency over adversarial and diffusion baselines. Our approach establishes a new paradigm for flexible, interpretable, and scalable modeling of spatio-temporal change in high-dimensional medical image time-series.

Chest X-ray (CXR) interpretation often requires longitudinal comparison to assess disease progression. Existing approaches typically rely on temporal feature fusion or inter-study discrepancy modeling, yet remain limited in capturing subtle progression semantics and overlook the inherently directional nature of disease trajectories. In this paper, we propose ProTrans, a novel vision-language pretraining framework that formulates disease progression as a directional semantic transition between paired CXR studies. ProTrans leverages radiology reports to anchor individual CXR representations within interpretable disease states, and introduces a learnable progression feature map to explicitly encode semantic shifts between states, aligned with report-derived progression descriptions. To enforce direction-aware perception, ProTrans incorporates a reversed temporal modeling process and imposes bidirectional reconstruction consistency across states and transitions, thereby disentangling directional semantics and promoting coherent trajectory modeling. Extensive experiments on longitudinal downstream tasks, including disease progression classification and progression captioning, demonstrate that ProTrans consistently outperforms existing methods, establishing a unified pretraining framework for longitudinal CXR understanding. https://github.com/RPIDIAL/ProTrans

Hematoma expansion (HE) after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a major determinant of acute triage and treatment decisions in neurosurgical care. However, most existing methods provide either a binary expansion risk or a single follow-up volume, limiting uncertainty-aware decisions. We introduce HemExp, a clinically-guided latent diffusion model that generates patient-specific follow-up non-contrast CT images, along with segmentations of intraparenchymal and intraventricular hemorrhage. Generation is conditioned on baseline imaging, clinical variables, and an explicit expansion indicator, enabling controllable simulation of realistic clinical scenarios. HemExp uses a hemorrhage-aware multi-head variational autoencoder and models progression as the difference between baseline and follow-up latent representations with a conditional diffusion model. The model is trained on paired scans from 450 patients across multiple centers and evaluated on 107 patients from a held-out institution. HemExp produces spatial HE probability maps by generating multiple synthetic follow-up images per patient to estimate distributions of plausible follow-up hematoma volumes. Perturbing clinical inputs such as symptom-onset-to-imaging time or anticoagulant status shifts the predicted follow-up volume distribution. HemExp extends binary predictors and demonstrates robust estimation of clinically relevant outcomes in the imaging space, such as hematoma volume, intraventricular involvement, and mass effects. Overall, our results support controllable latent diffusion as a promising direction for uncertainty-aware modeling of early ICH progression.

Glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide, and early detection from fundus images is critical for effective disease management. While deep learning has achieved promising performance in fundus image analysis, most existing methods rely on single time-point images and fail to capture longitudinal structural and vascular changes associated with disease progression. Sequential fundus images acquired during clinical follow-up provide valuable temporal information; however, current sequential models often struggle to detect subtle early progression signals and commonly depend on fixed-length inputs or diagnostic cues from already glaucomatous images, limiting their clinical utility for early prediction. To address these limitations, we propose DiffSight-Former, a framework for glaucoma progression prediction from sequential fundus images. It incorporates a time-variant feature extraction module based on a fundus-specific foundation model to obtain robust anatomical representations. A multi-structure difference modeling module is introduced to quantify progression-related changes in the optic disc/cup region and retinal vasculature. These representations are integrated with temporal interval embeddings and processed by a time-aware Transformer to model disease progression and estimate the probability of future glaucoma onset. Experiments were conducted on two longitudinal datasets, SIGF (405 sequences) and GRAPE (263 sequences). On SIGF, DiffSight-Former achieved an AUC of 91.54% and a sensitivity of 92.16% for progression prediction. On GRAPE, it achieved an average accuracy of 87.48% across three clinical visual-field progression criteria. Compared with existing approaches, DiffSight-Former demonstrates strong performance and robustness across different temporal settings, highlighting its potential for longitudinal glaucoma monitoring and early risk prediction.

Medical imaging artificial intelligence has achieved strong performance in isolated image interpretation, but remains poorly aligned with radiological practice, where diagnosis and follow-up rely on comparison across prior studies and analogous reference cases. Here we formulate radiological comparison as an entity-aware cross-image reasoning problem and introduce a framework that supports both reference-case retrieval and temporal comparative interpretation. We construct MedReCo-DB, a large-scale comparative imaging resource derived from routine image-report pairs, comprising more than 690,000 images from over 160,000 patients across eight institutions, four countries and seven imaging modalities. Reports are decomposed into anatomical structures, abnormal findings and pathological conditions to provide supervision for entity-conditioned retrieval and comparative visual question answering. Using this resource, we develop MedReCo, an entity-aware visual encoder for controllable retrieval of clinically analogous cases, and MedReCo-VLM, a vision--language extension for generative interpretation of interval change. Across internal, external and cross-center evaluations, MedReCo achieved the highest Recall@1 in all 12 internal retrieval settings and improved external retrieval by a mean of 6.0 percentage points. In clinically confusable differential groups, it consistently outperformed the strongest baselines. MedReCo-VLM achieved the best performance across all comparative generation evaluations and improved longitudinal follow-up accuracy by 14.5-46.5 percentage points on chest radiographs and 13.0-27.9 percentage points on CT. These findings suggest that entity-aware comparative reasoning can be learned from routine clinical data at scale and may provide a more clinically aligned foundation for medical imaging AI.

Purpose: To develop an interpretable and trustworthy AI framework that combines deep learning based MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) prediction with interpretable statistical modeling to study structure-pain relationships at scale using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Materials and Methods: We first developed a deep learning framework to predict MOAKS features directly from knee MRIs and incorporated conformal prediction to provide prediction uncertainty quantification. This uncertainty-aware strategy enables explicit filtering of model outputs, retaining only high-confidence MOAKS predictions at the knee level. Second, we applied a longitudinal latent class mixed model (LCMM) to examine associations between key structural abnormalities and four complementary knee pain measurements. Results: Among the three MRI-defined abnormalities (i.e., bone marrow lesions (BML), cartilage loss (CART), and meniscal extrusion (ME)), our framework substantially improved the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) and some other metrics. For example, MCC increased from 0.69 to 0.91 for BML, from 0.45 to 0.80 for CART, and from 0.59 to 0.89 for ME. Using these high-confidence predictions, we expanded the sample size to 2,175 knees for the LCMM analysis. Two distinct pain trajectories were identified (rapid and stable pain progression). The estimated odds ratios (95% CI) for the rapid progression group were 1.62 (1.12-2.35) for BML, 1.83 (1.24-2.70) for CART loss, and 2.50 (1.75-3.57) for ME. Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of these structural abnormalities as risk factors for pain and functional progression in osteoarthritis.

Forecasting the progression of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson's disease, is essential for effective long-term planning and personalized therapeutic intervention. Existing systems typically produce scalar clinical scores that ignore the rich structure of longitudinal neuroimaging, while traditional generative approaches suffer from a loss of anatomical details and blurring subtle progression patterns. To address this, we introduce a novel treatment-conditioned diffusion framework that predicts high-fidelity future brain states by conditioning the generative process on patients' screening DaTscan images and levodopa equivalent daily dose over one year. The pipeline uses a Transformer-based encoder to represent non-linear, time-dependent pharmacological dynamics and optimizes generation through a multi-weight region-of-interest mask that focuses on biologically critical areas. Experimental evaluation shows that our framework maintains sharp anatomical boundaries and significantly improves clinical fidelity relative to the baseline, achieving 14.0% lower MSE, 7.2% lower MAE, and 4.9% higher SSIM.

Predicting which people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will develop dementia matters for starting treatment early, yet computational work on structural brain imaging has relied almost entirely on a single scan. We propose TAFNet, a temporal attention fusion network that combines a baseline and a follow-up T1-weighted scan. A pretrained Siamese encoder represents each scan, and a fusion module combines the two through anatomical difference, cross-temporal attention and joint context, mixed by a learned per-patient gate. We evaluate it on paired scans from participants with MCI in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, taken up to two years apart, with a dementia diagnosis within three years of the first scan as the outcome. The evaluation is designed to hold up under scrutiny: conversion is defined from recorded diagnoses, the pretraining pool shares no participants with the evaluation cohort, a held-out test partition is kept apart from model development, and uncertainty is estimated by resampling participants. TAFNet discriminates converters from non-converters well on the held-out partition. It outperforms conventional single-scan networks and a model that subtracts the two scans; both differences are significant in cross-validation and have the same direction on the smaller held-out partition. With everything else held fixed, adding the follow-up scan gives a significant gain in cross-validation. Against a recurrent CNN-LSTM baseline built on the same encoder, TAFNet performs comparably, with neither model consistently ahead. Operating points chosen on validation data, in place of the default threshold, give high sensitivity at a clinically reasonable specificity.

Tracking tumor lesions across serial CT scans is essential for oncological response assessment. Existing automated methods face a fundamental trade-off: end-to-end trackers achieve high automation but offer no opportunity to correct silent tracking failures, while decoupled registration-segmentation pipelines permit user verification yet discard the lesion's prior appearance, limiting accuracy in ambiguous cases. In this work, we propose a Verified Tracking paradigm: a clinician verifies a registration-proposed prompt, which the model leverages alongside the baseline lesion appearance to resolve segmentation ambiguities. We present a unified framework combining early spatial prompt fusion with latent temporal difference weighting for longitudinally-informed segmentation. To address data scarcity, we leverage large-scale synthetic pretraining, proving essential for exploiting longitudinal context, improving performance by up to 4.5 Dice points over training from scratch. Our approach secured first place in the MICCAI autoPET IV challenge. We further curate and release PanTrack, a new longitudinal pancreatic cancer benchmark, to assess out-of-distribution generalization. Experiments show that our model outperforms prior work in both fully automatic and the proposed verified tracking setting offering a clinically safe middle ground between automation and control. Code, model and dataset will be released at https://github.com/MIC-DKFZ/LongiSeg

Hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge is a leading driver of morbidity, mortality, and avoidable healthcare expenditure in congestive heart failure (CHF). Current clinical risk stratification tools rely primarily on non-imaging data and exhibit limited predictive performance. Point-of-care lung ultrasound (LUS) offers a sensitive, noninvasive window into the pulmonary congestion that characterizes CHF decompensation, yet its prognostic utility for readmission prediction remains largely unexplored. We present a pilot feasibility study, the first systematic machine learning study using B-mode LUS acquired during hospitalization to predict 30-day CHF readmission. Quantitative spatiotemporal embeddings are extracted from a pretrained Temporal Shift Module (TSM) ResNet-18 encoder, and interpretable biomarker features are separately evaluated. Through structured ablations over lung view, temporal representation, multi-view fusion, and cross-lung augmentation, we identify the key imaging factors driving readmission risk. Our findings reveal that (1) dependent lower-lung regions (Left-3, Right-3) carry the strongest prognostic signal, consistent with their greater susceptibility to hydrostatic congestion; (2) temporal difference features between sequential examinations substantially outperform single-timepoint representations, highlighting the importance of capturing disease trajectory; and (3) multi-view feature concatenation yields the best overall performance, with our top MLP model achieving an F1 score of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.62-0.96). Biomarker analysis further reveals that pleural-line abnormalities, including breaks and indentations, are as informative as the canonical A-line and B-line markers. These results support POCUS-derived biomarkers as practical, interpretable tools for noninvasive CHF risk stratification.

Longitudinal chest X-ray (CXR) interpretation requires reasoning over disease evolution across multiple patient visits, yet most existing medical VQA benchmarks focus on single images or short-horizon image pairs. We introduce MI-CXR, a benchmark for standardized evaluation of Multi-Interval longitudinal reasoning over multi-visit CXR sequences, without requiring free-form report generation or additional clinical context. MI-CXR comprises five-way multiple-choice questions over five-visit patient timelines and instantiates three complementary task families: Temporal Event Localization, Interval-wise Change Reasoning, and Global Trajectory Summarization, which assess clinically grounded visual reasoning over time. Evaluating 14 state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) shows low overall performance, with an average accuracy of 29.3%, only modestly above random guessing. Using stage-wise diagnostic probing, we find that models often produce locally plausible interval descriptions but fail to enforce temporal constraints or compose evidence into globally consistent decisions over the full timeline. These findings reveal key limitations of current VLMs and establish MI-CXR as a principled benchmark for longitudinal medical reasoning. The benchmark is available at https://github.com/AIDASLab/MI-CXR

This work studies lung tumor growth prediction from sparse and irregular longitudinal computed tomography (CT) observations with measurement variability. A Bayesian physics-informed neural network is developed by combining Gompertz growth dynamics with low-dimensional Bayesian inference in the log-volume domain. The framework employs a two-stage inference strategy combining maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling to estimate posterior predictive distributions and uncertainty intervals. The method was evaluated on longitudinal data from the National Lung Screening Trial (30 patients). Results show that the model captures heterogeneous tumor growth patterns while maintaining reasonable prediction accuracy under limited observations. Compared with deterministic modeling approaches, the proposed approach additionally provides calibrated uncertainty estimates. The inferred posterior parameter correlations were consistent with expected biological growth behavior. The proposed framework achieved a cohort-level log-space RMSE of approximately 0.20 together with well-calibrated 95% credible interval coverage across 30 patients. These findings suggest that Bayesian physics-informed modeling may be useful for uncertainty-aware tumor growth assessment when only limited longitudinal follow-up scans are available.

Synapses are densely packed submicron structures that dynamically reorganize during learning and memory formation. Longitudinal \textit{in vivo} imaging of fluorescently tagged synaptic receptors offers a promising opportunity to study large-scale synaptic dynamics and how these processes are disrupted in neurological disease. However, in vivo imaging with 2-photon microscopy uses low laser power and therefore suffers from low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and high shot noise, nonlinear tissue motion between days, nonstationary fluctuations in synaptic fluorescence, and significant blur induced by the microscope point spread function (PSF). Together, these factors make it challenging to detect and track synapses, especially in regions with high synaptic density. This paper presents a novel template-based framework for modeling synapses as varying luminance point sources that move under a nonlinear tissue deformation. Taking a unified Bayesian approach, we apply this model to microscopy data by deriving a posterior that incorporates a diffeomorphic mapping for domain warping, a Gaussian point spread function for the imaging process, and a Poisson observation model for raw photon counts. The Bayesian solution simultaneously: (1) Constructs a probabilistic template of synapse locations, (2) denoises and deconvolves the image data, (3) infers fluorescence intensities, (4) performs diffeomorphic image registration to correct for tissue motion, and (5) provides confidence regions for these parameter estimates. We demonstrate the framework on both a 2D+t simulated dataset and a 3D+t longitudinal \textit{in vivo} microscopy dataset of fluorescent synapses imaged in a mouse over two weeks.

Clinical trial studies indicate benefit of watch-and-wait (WW) surveillance for patients with rectal cancer showing a complete or near clinical response (CR) directly after treatment (restaging). However, there are no objectively accurate methods to early detect local tumor regrowth (LR) in patients undergoing WW from follow-up exams. Hence, we developed Temporal Rectal Endoscopy Cross-attention (TREX), a longitudinal deep learning approach that combines pairs of images acquired at restaging and follow-up to distinguish CR from LR. TREX uses pretrained Swin Transformers in a siamese setting to extract features from longitudinal images and dual cross-attention to combine the features without spatial co-registration between image pairs. TREX and Swin-based baselines were trained under two settings: (a) detecting LR or CR at the last available follow-up and (b) early detection of LR at 3--6, 6--12, and 12--24 months before clinical confirmation. TREX achieved the highest accuracy in detecting LR with a high sensitivity of 97% $\pm$ 6% and a balanced accuracy of 90% $\pm$ 3%, and outperformed all baselines in early detection at both 3--6 (74% $\pm$ 1%) and 6--12 months (62% $\pm$ 4%) prior to clinical detection. Clinical validation via a surgeon survey showed that TREX matched attending-level overall accuracy (TREX: 86.21% vs.\ Clinicians: 87.84% $\pm$ 1.28%). Finally, we explored TREX's ability to predict treatment response by combining pre-treatment (pre-TNT) and restaging endoscopies, achieving a balanced accuracy of 73% $\pm$ 12%. These results show that longitudinal deep learning analysis of endoscopy may improve surveillance and enable earlier identification of rectal cancer regrowth.

Chest radiograph interpretation requires temporal reasoning over prior and current studies, yet most vision-language models are trained on static image-report pairs and lack explicit supervision for modeling longitudinal change. We introduce CheXTemporal, a dataset for temporally grounded reasoning in chest radiography consisting of paired prior-current chest X-rays (CXR) with finding-level temporal and spatial annotations. The dataset includes a five-class progression taxonomy (new, worse, stable, improved, resolved), localized spatial supervision of pathology, explicit spatial-temporal alignment across paired studies, and multi-source coverage for cross-domain evaluation. We additionally construct a 280K-pair silver dataset with automatically derived temporal and anatomical supervision for large-scale evaluation under weaker supervision. Using these resources, we evaluate multiple state-of-the-art vision-language CXR models on grounding and progression-classification tasks in a zero-shot setting. Across both gold and silver evaluations, current models exhibit consistent limitations in spatial grounding, fine-grained temporal reasoning, and robustness under distribution shift. In particular, models perform substantially better on salient progression categories such as worse than on temporally subtle states such as stable and resolved, suggesting limited modeling of longitudinal disease evolution in chest radiography.

Spatio-temporal fetal brain atlases are important for characterizing normative neurodevelopment and identifying congenital anomalies. However, existing atlas construction pipelines necessitate days for slice-to-volume reconstruction (SVR) to generate high-resolution 3D brain volumes and several additional days for iterative volume registration, thereby rendering atlas construction from large-scale cohorts prohibitively impractical. We address these limitations with INFANiTE, an Implicit Neural Representation (INR) framework for high-resolution Fetal brain spatio-temporal Atlas learNing from clinical Thick-slicE MRI scans, bypassing both the costly SVR and the iterative non-rigid registration steps entirely, thereby substantially accelerating atlas construction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that INFANiTE outperforms existing baselines in subject consistency, reference fidelity, intrinsic quality and biological plausibility, even under challenging sparse-data settings. Additionally, INFANiTE reduces the end-to-end processing time (i.e., from raw scans to the final atlas) from days to hours compared to the traditional 3D volume-based pipeline (e.g., SyGN), facilitating large-scale population-level fetal brain analysis. Code: https://github.com/hu2274898/INFANiTE

Multiple sclerosis (MS) expresses substantial clinical and radiological heterogeneity, which poses significant challenges for automatic lesion segmentation. The current deep learning-based SOTA is highly susceptible to changes in both distribution, e.g., changes in scanner; as well as the structure of inputs, evident in the current divide between cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches. We introduce TimeLesSeg, a unified contrast-agnostic framework designed to segment MS lesions regardless of the presence of a temporal dimension in its inputs, with a single convolutional neural network. Our approach models pathological priors through lesion masks, which are processed together with the current scan. Cross-sectional processing is enabled by exposing the model to training cases where no prior information is available, which are modeled with an empty mask, allowing it to operate seamlessly in both scenarios. To overcome the scarcity and inconsistency of longitudinal datasets, we propose a novel generative pipeline in which patterns of lesion evolution are simulated by stochastically deforming each individual lesion with morphological operations, producing realistic prior timepoints. In parallel, we achieve contrast agnosticism through Gaussian mixture model-based domain randomization, enabling the network to experience a wide spectrum of intensity profiles. Results on three publicly available and two in-house datasets show that TimeLesSeg outperforms the contrast-agnostic state of the art on single-modality inputs across overlap- and distance-based metrics. In longitudinal processing, our method outperforms SAMSEG, and captures lesion load dynamics more accurately than both the former and LST-AI. All source code related to the development of TimeLesSeg is available at https://github.com/NeuroADaS-Lab/TimeLesSeg.

Understanding and predicting the progression of neurodegenerative diseases remains a major challenge in medical AI, with significant implications for early diagnosis, disease monitoring, and treatment planning. However, most available longitudinal neuroimaging datasets are temporally sparse with a few follow-up scans per subject. This scarcity of temporal data limits our ability to model and accurately capture the continuous anatomical changes related to disease progression in individual subjects. To address this problem, we propose a novel 4D (3DxT) diffusion-based generative framework that effectively models and synthesizes longitudinal brain anatomy over time, conditioned on available clinical variables such as health status, age, sex, and other relevant factors. Moreover, while most current approaches focus on manipulating image intensity or texture, our method explicitly learns the data distribution of topology-preserving spatiotemporal deformations to effectively capture the geometric changes of brain structures over time. This design enables the realistic generation of future anatomical states and the reconstruction of anatomically consistent disease trajectories, providing a more faithful representation of longitudinal brain changes. We validate our model through both synthetic sequence generation and downstream longitudinal disease classification, as well as brain segmentation. Experiments on two large-scale longitudinal neuroimage datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in generating anatomically accurate, temporally consistent, and clinically meaningful brain trajectories. Our code is available on Github.

Predicting disease progression from longitudinal imaging is useful for clinical decision making and trial design. Recent methods have moved toward increasing generative complexity, but the conditions under which this complexity is necessary remain unclear. We propose that generative complexity should match the entropy of the predictable component of a task's conditional posterior, with training-inference input alignment required in all regimes. Two model-light measurements, a task-entropy analysis on raw image pairs and a posterior-concentration analysis on a stochastic model, let practitioners assess the complexity a task warrants before committing to a modeling framework. We validated this framework on a fundus autofluorescence (FAF) dataset by contrasting five conditioning configurations, sharing one architecture and training set, spanning standard conditional diffusion, inference-aligned stochastic training, and deterministic regression. Training-inference alignment produced large gains (delta-SSIM +0.082, SSIM +0.086, both p < 0.001), while the choice among aligned frameworks produced no clinically meaningful difference across evaluated metrics. Across two FAF platforms, inter-visit change was dominated by time-invariant acquisition variability rather than disease progression, and the stochastic models' posteriors collapsed to an effective point, explaining the framework equivalence. We trained a deterministic Temporal Retinal U-Net (TRU) and evaluated it on 28,899 eyes across three manufacturers and two modalities (two FAF platforms and en-face SLO), with three independent cohorts evaluated zero-shot. TRU matched or exceeded three published baselines on delta-SSIM, SSIM, and PSNR. These findings show that when disease progression is slow compared with acquisition variability, a deterministic regression model matches or outperforms more complex stochastic alternatives.