Causal Reasoning

Tool-augmented large language model (LLM) agents fail in a way no tool-selection or tool-security method addresses: they call tools that do not exist and pass arguments no schema declares. Existing defenses either pick the right tool (selection) or constrain what an agent may do with real tools (gating), both of which presuppose the emitted call refers to a real tool at all. We show this is a structural blind spot: a hallucinated call is by construction not a decision any gate made, so no gate can reject it. This paper is primarily a measurement and benchmark study. We give a five-class taxonomy of tool hallucination (H1-H5) and, as a reference point, the Resolution Rung: a training-free, closed-world resolver (registry membership plus a signature check) whose interest is where it must sit, not what it computes. We prove hallucination defense must precede any causal gate, and characterize the one irreducible residue (borrowed arguments schema-indistinguishable from a valid call). Across ten hosted models under two invocation surfaces we measure 322 genuine hallucinations; fabricated-tool calls concentrate on the unconstrained raw-JSON surface (34 vs. 3), and model scale does not help (a 675B model matches a 7-8B one). We then extend to the Model Context Protocol, where merging several servers into one namespace creates hallucination surfaces a single registry cannot express (a second taxonomy, M1-M5); on the live MCP surface we measure 154 hallucinations, including from frontier models that were clean on the single-registry surface, because collisions and shadowing are structural to the merge. We release the versioned Hallucinated-Tools Benchmark (HTB) so any resolver is comparable across submissions.

Causal discovery aims to recover causal relationships from observed data. In various fields, exploring causal relationships among variables remains an important topic, but this task becomes challenging due to the existence of latent confounders. Ignoring such confounders can lead to false associations and incorrect edge directions. In this paper, we study the linear structural equation model with latent confounders. We propose an algorithm that iteratively identifies terminal (observed) nodes and reconstructs the directed acyclic graph of the observed variables. To do this, we recover the precision matrix of the observed variables as a sparse plus low-rank matrix: a sparse matrix captures the conditional dependencies among observed variables, while a low-rank matrix captures the combined influence of a few latent confounders. We establish that for $p$ observed variables, $r$ latent confounders and $s$ edges, our procedure correctly identifies the directed causal relationship among observed variables, for $n \gtrsim \max\{s\log p,\ r p\}$ samples. Experimental results validate our theoretical contributions.

FastWAM-style world action models enable efficient action-only inference, but generalize poorly under visual distribution shifts. Their reconstruction-oriented representations emphasize appearance-specific details, limiting generalization to unseen scenes and objects. Without observation history, the model also lacks temporal evidence for robustly identifying task-relevant state changes and motion in unfamiliar visual conditions. To address these limitations, we present the Causal Semantic World Action Model (CSWAM), which augments FastWAM with a causal semantic expert built on V-JEPA 2.1. V-JEPA provides temporally grounded representations of semantic state changes and motion with less dependence on appearance-specific details. The expert learns their future evolution from a sparse history of current and past observations and shares the history-derived context with both the video and action streams through causal attention. At inference, CSWAM conditions action denoising on the current video state and observed semantic history, retaining efficient action-only inference. We conduct simulation and real-robot experiments to evaluate generalization under distribution shifts. With embodied pretraining, CSWAM raises Randomized success on RoboTwin 2.0 Clean-to-Randomized transfer from 10.16% to 45.18%, a gain of 35.02 percentage points over FastWAM. Across two real-robot tasks and three OOD difficulty levels, CSWAM improves average success over FastWAM by 42.5 percentage points, from 27.5% to 70.0%.

Linear probes can decode safety-relevant concepts such as truthfulness from language-model activations, but probe accuracy may show only decodability, not that the features the probe weights causally drive model behavior. We demonstrate that this gap cannot be closed from the geometry of probe weights alone: the features geometrically aligned with probe direction need not be the ones the model uses, so causal relevance requires intervention. We introduce a feature-level diagnostic that decomposes a deployed True/False probe into sparse-autoencoder (SAE) features, ranks those features by both probe alignment and by gradient sensitivity of the model's behavior, and ablates the resulting shared, probe-only, and random feature sets under a coherence gate. On the truth probe of Buerger et al. (2024) (TTPD), applied in the instructed truth/deception setting of Long et al. (2025) for Gemma2-9B-Instruct, the two rankings overlap only weakly (about 12%, Spearman rho = 0.10), and ablation dissociates them sharply: features the probe shares with the model flip the output far more (up to 27%) than equally sized probe-only (6%) or random (1%) features at full coherence, while probe-only features instead perturb the probe's own readout. The dissociation holds across five seeds and a held-out split, and an activation-aware selection of features flips behavior nearly three times as often as the probe's geometric top features (17.6% vs. 6.1%). In this setting, therefore, the geometric projection of a probe's weight vector alone does not identify the features the model causally uses; however, combining probe information with feature activation statistics recovers substantially more behaviorally causal features, and coherence-gated SAE intervention is needed to separate them from probe readouts.

Model explainability is essential for understanding and trusting machine learning models. Existing explainable AI methods often explain predictions through feature importance, counterfactual explanations, or rules. However, a region-level characterization of when and only when a prediction behavior arises remains less explored. This paper proposes Causal Sufficient and Necessary Regional Explanations (SNRE), a framework that learns an input region $A$ and output region $B$ such that membership in $A$ is both sufficient and necessary for the model output to fall in $B$. Motivated by the classical Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS), we formulate a region-level PNS measure through stochastic interventions and derive a differentiable finite-sample estimator for optimization. SNRE parameterizes the input-output region pair with explicit and interpretable algebraic region families, together with a learnable feature mask, balancing expressiveness and interpretability. Experiments demonstrate that SNRE learns region pairs with strong sufficiency-necessity performance, robust explanation behavior, and practical utility for model analysis.

World-action models (WAMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for robot manipulation by jointly modeling future visual dynamics and robot actions. However, existing WAMs are trained predominantly on successful trajectories, making them prone to failure when real-world execution diverges from the learned dynamics. This issue is amplified in autoregressive WAMs, where execution errors become part of the causal history and continue to influence subsequent predictions. To this end, we introduce \method{}, a training-free framework that reformulates failure recovery as \emph{test-time scaling over causal histories}. This formulation decomposes recovery into three coupled decisions: \emph{when} to revise the causal history, \emph{where} to recover a reliable history prefix, and \emph{which} history configuration best supports subsequent execution. Specifically, \method{} realizes these decisions through three stages: 1) \textbf{Progress-Aware Recovery Trigger} detects persistent non-progress and triggers recovery only when the current execution state permits intervention; 2) \textbf{History-Prefix Recovery} identifies the unreliable history suffix, retrieves a historical anchor matching the current physical state, and reconstructs the causal KV state from the retained prefix while conditioning on the latest real observation; and 3) \textbf{Hypothesis Verification} compares the future continuations induced by complete-history, recovered-prefix, and full-reset hypotheses, and commits the best-supported hypothesis. Experiments in both simulated and real-world manipulation settings demonstrate consistent improvements in task success, while ablations confirm the contribution of each recovery stage.

AI and large language models can recover clinically meaningful features from electronic health records (EHRs), but predictive usefulness does not establish admissibility for causal inference. We introduce information set emulation: an AI typed lift attaches source evidence, clinical and recording times, decision-time availability, representation version, proposed causal roles, and unresolved ambiguity to extracted features under a locked target trial. Causal certificates record auditable evidence for those roles. Features with unresolved downstream roles are routed to compatible reporting or separate analyses. Typed evidence defines an observational fiber of causal worlds consistent with the observed law. The locked scalar estimand maps this fiber to a compatible image whose squared Chebyshev radius equals the residual minimax mean squared error when the image is nonempty and compact. This classical identity provides a target-specific measure of information ambiguity. The contribution is its integration with a joint EHR observation map and an auditable certificate architecture. Under explicit exchangeability, positivity, and nuisance-consistency conditions, we give identification and cross-fitted augmented inverse probability weighted estimation, distinguishing empirical and population targets. An EHR compression-drift identity separates the roles of frame presence, treatment assignment, and outcome observation. Artificial simulations and a common-law finite-world example illustrate estimation failures and information-radius reduction. Synthetic Phase 0 notes demonstrate audit diagnostics; a separate role-specific analysis spread illustrates routing and is not an exact fiber radius. All experiments are synthetic. The framework specifies when reconstructed information can support a point claim and when compatible reporting is required.

AI-generated covariates from notes, conversations, images, and wearable streams can change the causal question when their roles are left unspecified. A generated feature may represent a treatment version, pre-action state, history, design variable, mediator, outcome proxy, observation process, or intercurrent event; these roles are not interchangeable. We formulate a causal type discipline for sequential experiments: a versioned representation map, a causal role classifier, a claim-status filter, and an estimand lock. The lock fixes a standardized proximal effect before generated covariates enter the analysis. Under audit correctness and standard identification assumptions, admissible role assignments preserve this estimand. We apply the established conditional-covariance characterization of compression bias to substitution of generated representations for design-relevant states. A standardized decomposition separates compression, conditional-law, and standardization drift. Further results cover mediator adjustment, post-action leakage, marker-intervention conflation, outcome-guided discovery, and state-measurement error. Cluster-level orthogonal estimators distinguish empirical and superpopulation targets under repeated sessions and missing outcomes. Simulations show that refinement helps when it retains design-relevant information, whereas design erasure, leakage, and same-data marker selection can produce bias or undercoverage. The framework places causal semantics and claim status before confirmatory inference with generated representations.

Autonomous nano-UAV navigation requires accurate ego-motion estimation under stringent size, weight, power, and computing (SWaP-C) constraints, where visual sensors and LiDARs exceed payload limits, optical flow degrades in low-texture scenes, and inertial-only state estimation is susceptible to accumulated drift. While multi-zone time-of-flight (ToF) arrays provide a lightweight metric complement, 6-DoF estimation from merely 384 ranges per frame is challenged by invalid returns, anisotropic observability, and temporal computational scaling. We propose TIO-FORMER, a camera-free, optical-flow-free, and mapless range-inertial odometry framework driven by an IMU and an ultra-lightweight (15 g) payload of six orthogonal 8 x 8 ToF arrays. Our frontend pairs consecutive range grids with a bilateral gated difference, while IMU-guided cross-attention dynamically routes directional features conditioned on platform kinematics. A Streaming Causal Transformer couples an uncompressed Local KV cache with compressed Chunk-FIFO memory, maintaining bounded inference cost and memory footprint independent of flight duration. In real-flight evaluations, TIO-FORMER reduces open-loop position error by 54.4% compared to nano-UAV optical flow and by 66.4%-89.1% over learned inertial baselines. We also evaluate performance across multiple environments and robustness under severe sensing degradation. Deployed on an edge RISC-V companion computer, TIO-FORMER achieves a P95 latency of 10.466 ms and peak resident memory of 6.324 MiB (less than 5 percent system RAM), demonstrating that sparse range sensing provides practical geometric anchoring for resource-constrained micro-aerial robots. Code is available at https://github.com/Ly041021/TIO-Former.

When a video model generates physically incorrect motion, did it fail to learn the correct motion, or did it learn it but fail to use it? We show the latter: the correct motion remains available inside the model and can still be made to control the generated video. We train on videos where red masses oscillate slowly and blue masses oscillate quickly, then test a red mass with fast observed motion. Even when the model generates slow motion in this conflicting case, a low-dimensional edit predicted from simple physical variables restores the correct fast motion. We call this ability causal writability. At fixed strength, we find a sharp depth boundary: the same edit changes the video before the boundary but not after it. This closure marks commitment for that write. The motion signal nevertheless remains, and a stronger downstream write can restore physical motion, while excessive gain overshoots. Early causal writability predicts which errors training later corrects: those errors are writable at more network depths than errors that persist. We reproduce both causal writability and its sharp closure in a pretrained 1.3B video model, supporting generality across model scale and training regime.

Large brains are metabolically costly, and associations with changing environments do not imply they evolved there, as the Cognitive Buffer Hypothesis (CBH) would suggest. They may instead evolve in stable conditions and later facilitate colonization of changing environments. Using neuro-evolution in an artificial seasonal foraging task, we compared agents evolving exclusively in changing environments to agents first evolved in static environments before transitioning. Results show that larger neural networks in dynamic environments arise mainly from prior static evolution, achieving superior performance under unpredictable changes. Our results challenge strict CBH predictions, provide agent-based (computational) support for a colonization-based account and highlight the role of evolutionary history in brain size evolution.

Vision-language models retain a substantial amount of pixel-decodable visual content in their visual key-value cache. We show, in our setting, that this retention is task-inert: across our preregistered tests, how much a unit retains never positively tracks whether the computation that answers the question causally relies on it. We measure retention with a learned pixel-inversion decoder and causal use with single-super-patch KV ablation, the teacher-forced drop in gold-answer log-probability, and relate the two within images under a preregistered, sign-calibrated, held-out design. Retention is decoupled from attention and, in a well-powered null, from causal utilization. Utilization is not inert to every proxy: attention weakly but significantly tracks it, the only signal we find that does and the design's positive control. We characterize pixel-decodable retention as an informational axis of the visual KV cache, orthogonal to the functional one. How much task-inert content a cache holds differs by architecture in our model pair: the encoder-free model retains 2.7 times more than the encoder-based one. The engineering consequence is a controlled negative result. At super-patch granularity, deconfounded pixel-decodable retention ranks KV eviction no better than random; at token granularity it acquires only a weak inverse-importance signal at larger budgets, dominated at every budget by attention magnitude. In our setting, pixel-decodable reconstructability is not a competitive KV-compression signal at any granularity we test.

A medical claim's correctness often depends not on the claim alone, but on the clinical structure around it. A claim may require a lab reference range, a causal or conditional link, or patient-specific details to be judged correctly, and atom-level decomposition can fragment these dependencies, leaving the verifier with clinically incomplete claims. We reformulate medical fact-checking around snippet-level verification, where clause-grouped units preserve local clinical structure. We introduce MedSNIP-Bench, a human-annotated benchmark for snippet-level medical fact verification, and MedSNIP, an automatic snippet-generation pipeline. MedSNIP-Bench covers 276 consumer-health and clinical-vignette responses, segmented into 2,524 snippets with dual in-general and in-patient-context labels and six structural pattern codes. MedSNIP is evaluated against human snippet boundaries on MedSNIP-Bench and then used to generate snippet-level units for external corpora. Across MedSNIP-Bench, HealthFC, and MedHallu, snippet-level verification preserves or improves false-class F1, with gains concentrated where answers are long enough to fragment and where the verifier is strong enough to exploit the recovered structure. The largest merge-pattern gain is on causal-conditional clinical chains. It also reduces verifier calls by 24-73%, though the saving survives end-to-end only when decomposition is cheap, which an open-weight decomposer makes possible at no loss of chunking fidelity.

Dashboard-mounted gaze trackers often lose sight of the driver's eyes during large head rotations, including shoulder checks, mirror glances, and intersection scanning. These maneuvers occur when information about the driver's visual attention is most useful. Offline gap-filling methods may reconstruct a missing interval using observations from both sides, but an online driver-monitoring system cannot rely on measurements that have not yet occurred. We therefore formulate causal gaze recovery: forecasting unavailable gaze at time t without target-tracker gaze at t or later. We introduce the Causal Context-Gated Forecaster (CCGF), which encodes a 60-frame pre-dropout history of gaze and head pose and combines it with DINOv3 scene features. A learned reliability gate controls the contribution of the history and scene representations as the dropout progresses. We evaluate two scene conditions: Live, in which the scene representation continues to update during tracker loss, and Frozen, in which the final pre-dropout representation is used throughout the missing interval. We evaluate CCGF on 2,047 eligible, naturally occurring GazeSense head_lost events drawn from 10.5 h of naturalistic driving by ten drivers. Across all recordings, head_lost accounts for 8.5 percent of GazeSense recording time. Synchronized gaze coordinates from a head-mounted Neon tracker provide supervision and evaluation targets but are never used as model inputs. Under leave-one-driver-out evaluation, CCGF achieves a mean per-driver median error of 175.7 px (10.5 deg) with Live scene updates, a 33 percent reduction relative to history-only causal forecasting. With Frozen scene input, the error increases to 210.8 px (12.9 deg), indicating that scene observations acquired during the dropout provide useful predictive information. We will release the dataset, evaluation protocol, and causal baselines.

We study the expressivity of spiking neural networks, which provide a natural framework for asynchronous, event-driven computation complementary to conventional feedforward neural networks. We consider the time-to-first-spike model in a setting for which the input-output map is continuous and piecewise linear, with affine pieces governed by causal feasibility constraints that determine which presynaptic spikes occur before a neuron fires. We first show that each neuron's firing time admits a maxout-like representation with exponentially many, highly constrained affine pieces. We then formalize causal regions as polyhedral regions with fixed causal sets and derive upper and lower bounds on the maximal number of causal regions in both shallow and multilayer feedforward spiking networks. Our theoretical and experimental results show that spiking networks can generate richer partitions of the input space than conventional feedforward ReLU networks.

Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structures from data and is fundamental to scientific reasoning and intervention-based decision making. Its evaluation relies heavily on structural causal models (SCMs), which specify a causal graph together with the mechanisms that generate data, yet existing studies differ substantially in graph families, mechanisms, and evaluation protocols. The emergence of causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) further complicates evaluation: performance may reflect not only causal discovery ability, but also overlap between pretraining environments and test SCMs, making results on fixed synthetic benchmarks difficult to interpret. We introduce CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery under a common protocol. Synthetic SCMs supply controlled breadth over structures and mechanisms; semantic operational SCMs provide human-auditable, semantically grounded environments beyond standard synthetic generators; and formula-grounded SCMs test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms. Public real-world datasets provide an additional external-validity check. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained methods reveal substantial ranking shifts across SCM families and protocols, showing that strong performance in one benchmark regime does not reliably transfer to others. These results highlight benchmark diversity and pretraining--evaluation overlap as central challenges for evaluating causal discovery in the foundation model era.

Fairness auditing of text-to-image diffusion models often requires generating large numbers of images across sampling configurations, making comprehensive evaluation computationally expensive. We propose a causal-abstraction-based audit instrument for efficiently evaluating fairness under interventions on the classifier-free guidance scale. Given a fixed prompt and a target feature function, we represent the diffusion process as a low-level structural causal model and construct a corresponding high-level model over abstract denoising states. We characterize the projected causal structure, establish identifiability of the fairness-relevant interventional query, and provide sufficient conditions under which the high-level model preserves this query. A probabilistic transformer implements the high-level model as an amortized predictor of target-feature distributions across guidance scales. Experiments evaluate distributional fidelity, fairness-query accuracy, and computational efficiency. We present two auditing demonstrations: one using standard Stable Diffusion 1.5 and another using StayFair, a fairness-enhanced Stable Diffusion model, to examine their behavior across guidance scales.

Long-form instructional videos require automatic chaptering to support browsing, navigation, and knowledge access. Recent long-context language models can perform chaptering from textualized video inputs, but they remain costly and brittle for content-dense lecture videos with long transcripts, smooth topic transitions, and detailed chapter outputs. A scalable segment-then-caption paradigm reduces this cost, but introduces two new challenges: boundary error propagation and fragmented cross-chapter context. We propose \textbf{CausalChapter}, an intervention-inspired framework for long-video chaptering that estimates prediction-level influence through lightweight masking and removal interventions. For boundary localization, our Local Dependency Shift module detects drops in predictive dependency between adjacent temporal windows; for chapter description generation, our Cross-Segment Support Selection module reranks historical contexts according to their support for the current prediction. Experiments on long-video chaptering benchmarks show that CausalChapter improves boundary localization, chapter description quality, and cross-chapter coherence.

Existing causal-inference benchmarks for LLMs mostly score method descriptions or whether generated code runs, not whether the executed workflow recovers the target causal estimate. CausalVerify studies this verification problem for structured econometric causal-estimation workflows by separating realistic interpretation from verifiable computation. It pairs 259 published economics papers (reconstructed research question, data description, institutional context) with 100 fixed-seed synthetic scenarios that realise CSV datasets for difference-in-differences, event study, instrumental variables, and regression discontinuity designs. Experiment A (real-paper text agreement) scores method-family and direction agreement against four-LLM consensus labels. Experiment B (synthetic execution) runs model-written R code and checks whether the extracted treatment-effect estimate matches a canonical estimator on the same realised dataset; this execution-grounded correctness layer is L2b+, distinct from L2b, which records only whether the code executes. A calibration arm asks whether self-reported confidence separates correct from incorrect workflows. On Experiment B, seven LLMs reach L2b+ pass rates of 10% to 88% at the default 50% tolerance, and 66 of the 426 workflows that execute (15.5%) return a wrong estimate. Execution ranking (L2b) agrees with L2b+ far better than text-direction scoring (L4): Kendall $τ=0.81$ and Spearman $ρ=0.93$, versus Kendall $τ$ between $-0.20$ and $0.10$ for L4. Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct shows the same qualitative gap, and reported confidence does not reliably separate correct from incorrect workflows. The claims are confined to standardized single-shot workflows in these four design families under the evaluated R backend and model panel; the benchmark does not measure general causal-inference ability. Code, data, cached outputs, and a datasheet are released.

In this paper, we propose ReactVAU, a Slow-Fast Decoupled Framework for real-time streaming Video Anomaly Understanding (VAU). Existing VAU methods rely on offline inference with global temporal sampling, which violates causality and prevents deployment in live surveillance streams. Conversely, general streaming video models satisfy causal access but dilute rare transient anomalies during memory compression and often invoke heavyweight MLLMs uniformly over long normal intervals. React VAU addresses this gap with three synergistic components: a lightweight Fast Detection Module based on Spatial Grid Folding (SGF) for continuous anomaly filtering; an Anomaly-Aware Persistent Memory (AAPM) that protects critical visual cues from temporal decay; and a heavyweight Slow Reasoning Module that remains dormant during normal streams and is awakened only by suspicious events for semantic verification and causal description. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that ReactVAU operates under strict streaming constraints while simultaneously achieving competitive performance in both anomaly detection and causal reasoning, alongside significantly enhanced computational efficiency by minimizing heavyweight MLLM invocations. Project page is available at https://huiyuiui.github.io/ReactVAU/

Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over "candidate explanations," a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.

Research and news coverage of language-model deception increasingly attributes human-like mental-state concepts to language models. Such claims can blur the distinction between behavior that looks deceptive and a mechanism that is actually deceptive. We introduce a causal taxonomy separating prior commitment from retrospective report, model preference from realized output, false preference from sensitivity to the utility of misleading a recipient, and deceptive behavior from the provenance of the objective or strategy producing it. We test these distinctions in two open-weight model families. Across controlled guessing-game and stock-trading experiments, we find that deceptive-looking behavior can arise without the corresponding proposed mechanism, while other interventions provide direct evidence that recipient information state can causally affect deceptive preference. These results show that deceptive behavior can provide evidence for a deceptive mechanism. But even evidence for such a mechanism does not establish model agency in the deception.

In the natural sciences, symmetries and cause-effect relationships are ubiquitous. Yet for complex machine-learning tasks, like world-modeling in reinforcement learning, they appear difficult to harness. We propose a formal description of statistical systems based on symmetries in data leaving causal mechanisms invariant. The result is an abstract, simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. This paper provides formal descriptions of models and queries, setting up this language, and the formal infrastructure and strategies for their mathematically rigorous identification from data within this formalism. This approach reproduces and matches standard theoretical results on IID data and transport of experimental and non-experimental data. But its main purpose is to unify and substantially extend the scope of causal reasoning, in going beyond IID data and in approaching complex causal queries not captured by do- or soft-interventions. This new perspective on causally relevant aspects of data-modeling additionally sheds new light on well-known structures like c-components or hedges but also includes aspects of missing data and is inherently well-suited for the description of transfer and robustness properties.

When a statistical agency or regulator releases synthetic data in place of sensitive records, it chooses the generator that produces the table, and can shape that generator so unfair pathways are absent. DECAF made this concrete on one non-private GAN: three fairness definitions become three sets of edge cuts on the generator's causal graph. Whether the mechanism belongs to DECAF, or to causal factorisation itself, was untested. We port all three definitions to nine generators from three unrelated families (marginals-based, GAN, and diffusion, each with differentially private variants), across three levels of formal privacy guarantee, over 2,520 matched-pair runs on Adult and COMPAS datasets. The mechanism transfers everywhere, and our new causal diffusion backbone yields the fairest release of any family we tested, at fidelity close to the marginals tier. Applying the cut barely moves fidelity, only costs a downstream classifier about $0.07$ to $0.15$ AUC on average, and adding privacy guarantees don't make the data less fair.

In many settings, studying causal questions based on text data requires adjusting for confounding information within texts. Yet there is a tradeoff in constructing text representations for adjustment: they must be sufficiently large and/or dense to preserve the confounding variables necessary for unbiased effect estimation, but sufficiently small and/or sparse to satisfy finite-sample overlap and yield low-variance estimates. To address this tradeoff, we turn to sparse autoencoders (SAEs), and propose a novel causal adjustment pipeline that iteratively selects a minimal set of SAE features via conditional independence tests. We find that SAE representations achieve better adjustments (lower bias and and higher coverage) than alternative representations in standard semi-synthetic evaluations with binary confounders, and their interpretability offers opportunities for falsification. We also introduce a more realistic semi-synthetic evaluation that uses multi-label data as the unobserved confounders and find off-the-shelf adjustment methods require increased investigation for these more complex settings. Code: https://github.com/mianzg/sae-text-confounder

Across the full Pythia suite (160M-12B, eight checkpoints, four task families), a linear probe can read a target variable from the residual stream as early as step 1,000 at every scale -- yet steering along that same reading direction remains null-equivalent in 43 of 48 model-checkpoint cells. Internal readability systematically outruns causal efficacy, and the lag does not shrink with scale. We call this structure lagged coupling and decompose it into three dissociable tracks: (i) internal readability, saturated (AUROC >= 0.990) from the first checkpoint everywhere; (ii) behavioral readability, which develops gradually and progressively later at larger scales (12B reaches 0.909 only at the final checkpoint); (iii) causal efficacy, almost always null-equivalent, occasionally counterproductive early, with one isolated positive pulse (12B, step 8,000, z = +2.49) our grid cannot resolve. The ordering is dominantly read-before-write (11/11 units, no inversion). Representation headroom along the probe direction grows up to 57x with training and scale while causal write-in stays below 0.11% of headroom -- the variable is increasingly written into the representation and increasingly ignored by the readout. Under a fully pre-registered protocol, both single-onset hypotheses resolve INDETERMINATE (scale slope +0.24, 95% CI [-0.60, +0.87]; time vote 3:3) -- a disciplined negative explained by the three-track decomposition. A pre-registered OLMo-2 replication preserves the direction at attenuated magnitude. Our results caution against inferring steerability from probe accuracy and establish a developmental bottleneck: representation formation reliably outpaces causal readout consolidation.

Machine learning systems deployed for credit, hiring, and resource distribution are increasingly subject to regulatory oversight from policies such as the EU AI Act and GDPR. Current fairness governance practices rely on observational fairness metrics, post-hoc explainability, and immutable audit logs, but provide limited support for causal attribution and efficient evidentiary verification. We introduce Causal Evidentiary Governance (CEG), a framework in which regulated institutions commit to a versioned directed acyclic graph (DAG) that partitions causal pathways into allowable and disallowed groups. The Causal Harm Rate measures prediction variation attributable to disallowed causal pathways. Each decision is accompanied by a signed Decision-Evidence Packet (DEP), cryptographically binding the prediction to a digest of the published DAG and path-specific attributions. DEP digests can be appended to a Merkle tree to enable logarithmic-cost inclusion proofs. We validate CEG through a two-layer empirical methodology using demographic summaries from four years of PMA credit supervisory data to construct 10,000 synthetic credit applicants across four strategic DAG counterfactuals. Causal Harm Rate isolates injected causal effects more clearly than demographic parity or equalized odds. Cross-model validation and ablation studies assess robustness. Evaluation on the German Credit dataset shows that harm associated with specific causal pathways can be substantially understated by associational fairness metrics. Finally, a proof-of-concept implementation demonstrates operationally plausible throughput and highlights relevant performance tradeoffs.

World models are becoming core infrastructure for embodied intelligence, with action-conditioned video generation providing controllable predictions of how scenes evolve after agent interventions. Yet existing models are commonly trained with space-time-uniform mean squared error, allowing abundant background tokens to dominate the gradient while sparse interaction dynamics remain under-optimized; such uniform fitting rewards reconstructing appearance rather than learning how actions change the world. We introduce Causal Action Effect Reweighting (CAER), a general training paradigm that redistributes supervision toward the tokens whose predicted future is causally affected by the action. CAER contrasts the model's own predictions with and without action conditioning to localize these tokens online, then normalizes the resulting effect map into a weight that preserves the total coefficient mass and changes only where it is spent. This online signal requires no external annotations or offline preprocessing, avoids additional data-processing time, and scales naturally with model and dataset size. Experiments across heterogeneous action-conditioned world-model tasks show that CAER converges to better solutions than uniform MSE training, with consistent improvements in the physical consistency, controllability, and visual quality of generated videos.

Prediction error is widely used to evaluate nuisance-function estimators in causal inference, but its relationship with causal estimator performance may differ across performance measures. We studied this question in a partially linear model using Monte Carlo simulations. We compared ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized additive models (GAMs), XGBoost, and Double Machine Learning with XGBoost (DML-XGBoost), evaluating nuisance-function prediction error, bias, RMSE, and 95% confidence interval coverage. We also examined a simple joint-error measure based on the absolute cross-product of estimation errors from the exposure and outcome nuisance functions. Across the simulated settings, XGBoost had the lowest RMSE among the non-oracle methods, while DML-XGBoost generally provided better confidence interval coverage. Prediction error did not consistently track causal bias across methods and settings, and the method with the best point-estimation performance did not necessarily have the best confidence interval coverage. The joint-error measure was only weakly associated with causal bias and did not provide a useful standalone measure of causal performance. These results suggest that prediction error is useful for assessing nuisance-function estimation, but it should not be treated as a direct measure of the quality of the resulting causal estimator.

The key limitation of current state-of-the-art influence-based guardrails is that they do not reliably distinguish a legitimate, user-authorized action from a malicious, unauthorized action when both rely on external tool information. This ambiguity can cause benign actions to trigger unnecessary verification and intervention, reducing utility and adding latency. We expose this limitation through an authorization-equivalence audit of 96 conditions derived from 24 base cases. Within matched source comparisons, we hold authorization, the exact committed action, and its intended effect fixed, changing only whether a required value comes from the user or a legitimate tool result. Although the action remains unchanged, this harmless relocation shifts the causal signal toward the attack region in all 24 cases under both Llama and Gemma scorers. Matched unauthorized controls show that the signal remains attack-sensitive, yet the benign relocation produces a larger average score shift than the actual change in authorization. Architecture-level evaluation shows how this mismatch propagates through guardrail designs. With a semantic monitor, attack success is 0% and utility is 28%, compared with 16% and 60% without it. A shadow-based guardrail allows every tested harmless run, yet does not reject matched unauthorized actions more often overall: 57.5% of unauthorized runs pass automatically before reaching the later security check, compared with 29.2% of authorized runs. These results show that the studied causal signal reveals what shaped an action without reliably encoding whether the action was authorized, and that reference construction and routing are integral to the effective security decision.

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) increasingly calls for actionable counterfactual recourse, yet current methodologies face challenges related to causal invalidity, excessive cognitive burden, and predictive failure. Exhaustive causal search algorithms often require modifications to multiple attributes, whereas additive attribution-guided methods, such as SHAP, ignore higher-order feature synergies, leading to suboptimal predictive momentum and diffuse intervention effort in complex nonlinear models, such as XGBoost. To bridge this gap, we introduce actionable case-based feature importance (A-CBFI), a diagnosis-prescription integrated framework for tabular machine learning. Grounded in structural causal models (SCMs), A-CBFI isolates synergistic interaction bottlenecks and releases suppressive structural locks, translating them into targeted interventions. By mathematically separating the active user intervention space (L_{\mathrm{active}}) from downstream effects and concentrating over 98.3% of the intervention effort on diagnosed root causes, A-CBFI enables highly targeted interventions. Empirical evaluations across the financial and healthcare domains demonstrate that A-CBFI reduces the active human intervention burden by 77.0% while maintaining comparable global recourse cost to exhaustive causal baselines. By prioritizing the diagnosed causal bottlenecks, A-CBFI provides targeted and actionable recourse while maintaining causal validity and achieving full relative convergence across all causally feasible instances.

Interactive autoregressive video generation demands both low-latency rollouts and precise online control. Few-step distillation accelerates generation by reducing denoising steps, while online control imposes a causal constraint: frames and blocks should depend on history and controls available during generation. Existing video distribution matching distillation (DMD) pipelines, however, often supervise causal few-step students using bidirectional teachers that score complete clips. The score for a target can therefore depend on future frames and controls that were unavailable when the student generated it, misaligning teacher supervision with the student's causal information set. We introduce Context-Matched Distillation (CMD), a causal DMD framework that aligns teacher supervision with the information available when each target is generated. CMD replaces bidirectional full-clip scoring with a causal teacher that evaluates each target without access to future frames or controls. The same causal teacher initializes the few-step student, establishing a consistent causal formulation across teacher training, student distillation, and inference. Beyond aligning the temporal information boundary, Prefix Scoring matches supervision to the student's realized rollout context by evaluating each target under the cached student-generated prefix that produced it. Prefix Corruption further stabilizes training by perturbing unreliable prefixes produced early in training while preserving this target-context alignment. With a simple causal formulation, CMD naturally extends to frame-wise and chunk-wise generation, long video distillation, and camera-conditioned distillation. Experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art aggregate performance among autoregressive methods on both short- and long-video benchmarks, together with substantially improved adherence to time-varying camera controls.

Agentic workflows are commonly evaluated by whether they reach the correct outcome. That is insufficient in institutional settings, where a correct action may rely on the wrong authority, an unsupported completion claim, or work made stale by a later change. We define governed execution as work whose decisions, completion, and response to change are supported by inspectable provenance. We present Matrix, a deterministic causal-state layer that records authority and fact dependencies, verifies completion evidence, and selectively invalidates affected work. Across controlled comparisons, governed and direct workflows often reached the same outcomes, but only the governed path consistently preserved governing evidence, refused unsupported closure, and limited recovery to dependent tasks. A role-separated transfer challenge then failed: a deterministically enforced completeness contract severely over-blocked synthetic packets produced outside its authoring context. These results do not establish Matrix as a general accuracy enhancer; they support its primary role as an institutional integrity layer for making agentic work auditable and independently verifiable.

LLM-based simulated clients are increasingly used to train novice counselors, evaluate LLM therapists, and generate synthetic data. However, current simulators produce overly cooperative clients that disclose too readily, accept therapeutic reframes without resistance, and resolve core issues within a single session. We trace these issues to profiles that lack causal depth and behavioral mechanisms that treat all content as equally accessible. We present PatientAct, a framework for client simulation grounded in established clinical theories. Our profiles integrate the 5Ps clinical case formulation, providing causal depth without tying the design to any single therapeutic modality. During simulation, profiles include a dynamic memory layer in which items carry trust thresholds (e.g., symptoms are available early, whereas formative memories require a sustained therapeutic alliance). At each turn, the client's emotional reaction and behavior are modeled before generating a response. If the therapist approaches gated content, PatientAct expresses resistance in terms of quantity, content, and style rather than defaulting to cooperation or a single resistance pattern. We evaluate our framework on 40 clinical situations and demonstrate that it generates diverse profiles with high clinical plausibility. Moreover, PatientAct significantly outperforms the baselines, yielding substantial gains in resistance quality and behavioral realism. Our code and data will be publicly available via github.com/Sahandfer/PatientHub.

Probabilities of causation (PoCs) characterize individual causal responses that cannot be directly observed and therefore generally require partial identification. Tian and Pearl first derived theoretically sharp bounds for binary PoCs, including the probability of necessity (PN), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS). Mueller et al. subsequently tightened the bounds for binary PNS by incorporating causal information encoded in covariates and mediators. More recently, Li and Pearl, as well as Shu et al., extended PoCs to multivalued settings and derived corresponding theoretical bounds. These developments naturally raise the question of whether additional causal knowledge can further tighten the bounds in multivalued settings. This paper addresses this question by deriving tighter bounds for multivalued PoCs through the incorporation of causal information encoded in covariates and mediators. We illustrate the theoretical results with toy examples, while simulation studies further demonstrate that the proposed bounds are tighter than existing nonbinary bounds.

Task-arithmetic merging works until it doesn't, and the field diagnoses why by measuring interference inside the merged model. We take the most direct such measure, the exact layerwise activation cross-term of a factorial ledger, establish its causal anatomy, and then ask what it tracks. The anatomy is clean: each block mostly transports and amplifies the cross-term rather than generating it; erased, it is regenerated by the untouched marginal paths to 99% of its norm unless removed late; its output effect varies monotonically with the displacement's angle (orthogonal displacements make interference worse), and a two-assumption model derives the angle law and retro-dicts the dose curve (R^2 >= 0.99). What the measure tracks is not what the field assumes. Behavioural expert-likeness is decoupled from it across four instruments. Its cross-condition behaviour is denominator-dominated: an instruction template pins the main effect to within 1% while the absolute interaction grows 111x from two to six merged tasks, suppressing expressed interference at k=2 and amplifying it at k=6. And where merging actually collapses, the cross-term is a bystander, not the carrier: across two collapse parameterizations at two scales, even erased persistently at every position, removing it entirely repairs none of the collapse. There the output-side ratio carries no method information under a common counterfactual, while two state-space measures the field already uses rank methods correctly at both scales. All 81 predictions were frozen before their data; falsifications are reported as such. Output-side interference measurement reads the gate, the denominator, and the displacement budget, not the interference. What fails a merge is the carrier-bystander split: collapse rides in the marginal displacements while the cross-term merely accompanies it, and only state space sees the carrier.

When a language model answers an interventional question, the computation it must perform depends on the type of evidence the query requires. We report a decoupling in how a transformer organizes causal knowledge: slot-by-type structure induced by type-level supervision organizes routing, yet remains functionally decoupled from answer readout. We establish this with a typed mechanism library -- discrete mechanism slots partitioned by evidence type, auditable at the state level -- on a causal-world benchmark with exact interventional ground truth, under a frozen protocol, at two scales (22.6M and 125M). Four preregistered findings. (i) Origin. Slot-by-type organization is induced by type-level supervision: absent in architecturally identical unsupervised controls, not buyable by content-free gating labels, and statistically attributable to the supervision signal, replicating at 125M under a powered preregistered protocol (all nine cells passed). (ii) Boundary. The induced structure is a typed routing index with a sharp routing/readout boundary: slot codes scaffold routing but do not drive answer readout ($|Δ\hat{y}| \le 3.4\times10^{-6}$, zero collateral, three seeds, stable across a 5.6x scale window) -- we therefore make no behavioral-editability claim. (iii) Cost. The structure is free: LM quality matches a parameter-matched monolith within 0.0082 nats. (iv) Trust. The library state is exactly local under edit and bit-exactly revertible -- 250 single-edit and 1,000 stacked reverts per seed, zero failures. We further find that the unsupervised null itself moves with scale, so comparisons reusing a null calibrated at one scale may be confounded at another. Every claim is tied to a preregistered, machine-checkable criterion archived before the data it governs; the full audit trail, including one criterion we failed and how the frozen protocol handled it, is released as an appendix.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) offers considerable promise for optimizing ICU treatment decisions, yet standard evaluation metrics Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Fitted Q-Evaluation (FQE) assess only behavioral imitation and cannot detect Toxic Mimicry, a failure mode in which agents replicate harmful patterns such as treatment withdrawal during comfort-care transitions. Using the MIMIC-III database, we propose the Counterfactual Clinical Audit (CCA) framework, which stress-tests RL agents through physiological perturbations anchored in Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) guidelines. We audit a Medical Decision Transformer (MedDT) and a Historical Causal Transformer (HCT-RL), the latter employing Causal Action Shielding, propensity-based importance weighting, and Conservative Q-Learning. CCA reveals that MedDT paradoxically reduces vasopressor dosage as lactate escalates, contradicting resuscitation guidelines, while HCT-RL maintains physiologically consistent responses. These findings expose a systemic misalignment between statistical fit and clinical safety, supporting counterfactual audits as a necessary evaluation standard for medical RL.

While 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has advanced open vocabulary scene understanding, existing methods remain confined to explicit queries. They struggle to interpret implicit intents, complex spatial constraints, and commonsense reasoning required for practical embodied interactions. To address this gap, we introduce the task of reasoning 3D Gaussian segmentation and construct two benchmarks, Causal-LERF and Causal-ScanNet. These benchmarks systematically evaluate commonsense, spatial, affordance, and counterfactual reasoning. Evaluations reveal that current state of the art methods perform poorly on these reasoning challenges. Therefore, we propose CausalSplat, a framework that integrates vision-language models with 3D scene graphs to disentangle explicit structural perception from implicit logical inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalSplat achieves state of the art performance on our reasoning benchmarks while showing strong generalizability on standard referring and open vocabulary 3D segmentation tasks. Project Page: https://jiayuding031020.github.io/CausalSplat

Vision-language models can describe an image with remarkable accuracy, yet a more fundamental question remains unanswered: what visual information actually drives their answers? In this work, we investigate this question through causal tracing, and we observe that highly causal vision tokens often lie outside the target region. Extending the analysis to larger vision-language models reveals a similar pattern across models and corruption settings, suggesting that strong multimodal performance does not necessarily imply spatially localized causal representations. We further investigate: can these models preserve visual structure when appearance cues are removed? and find that visual cues are exploited to understand visual structures. Together, our experiments expose a gap between seeing, using, and reasoning over visual structure, and provide a causal framework for studying how visual information is transformed, preserved, and ultimately used by modern vision-language models.

The Relativity of Causal Knowledge (RCK) explains how a network of agents with different structural causal models can exchange causal knowledge through a shared interventionally consistent abstraction, or backbone. We ask the prior identification question that this transport mechanism presupposes: when is that backbone determined by the agents' private causal knowledge? In the basic two-agent common-effect case, two private causes influence one shared outcome and each agent identifies only the single-cause causal marginal relevant to its own perspective. We show that, under standard compatibility, non-degeneracy, and local overlap assumptions, those local causal marginals do not identify a unique backbone. Infinitely many joint intervention kernels can induce exactly the same private reports while disagreeing on joint interventions. We then give a conditional recovery result. Additive separability removes the hidden interaction degree of freedom, but observational residual summaries remain insufficient. Identification becomes possible when agents communicate causally identified response functions. An education value-added example illustrates why this is first a communication problem, and only then a policy-composition problem.

Scattering matrices are the standard experimental and computational description of photonic and electromagnetic devices. Passivity is explicit in the conventional incoming-outgoing matrix, whereas causality sum rules are usually formulated only after transforming the response into auxiliary variables. Here we show that these rules can be written directly in the conventional scattering matrix by removing the time advance introduced by the reference domain. Using the earliest-arrival delay of each channel, we define a domain-delayed matrix that preserves real-frequency passivity while restoring the causal time origin. Under explicit analyticity, transparency, and regularity assumptions, this matrix becomes a Schur function, enabling a Cayley-Herglotz construction. The resulting projected and determinant bounds constrain coherent channel superpositions and aggregate multichannel loss. The framework recovers Rozanov's absorber limit and spherical-multipole sum rules, while extending causality bounds to measurable quantities including insertion loss, suppressed singular-value channels, and conditional lossless delay-bandwidth trade-offs. Our work directly connects fundamental causality theory with experimentally accessible scattering data. The initial theoretical route is autonomously explored by Qiushi Engine, an AI research system for open-ended scientific discovery, and subsequently verified, refined, and developed by the authors, demonstrating a hybrid AI-human discovery workflow.

Neural language models trained on large crowdsourced corpora frequently exploit spurious surface patterns tied to target labels without true linguistic or causal relevance, boosting benchmark performance while failing on adversarial or out-of-distribution inputs. Existing approaches either require manual specification of the feature vocabulary or automate discovery only partially, leaving the gap between dataset-level correlation and model-level exploitation unaddressed. We present U N M ASK, a fully automated pipeline that discovers, causally verifies, and mitigates spurious correlations in text classifiers without additional human annotation. Given unlabeled training examples, U N M ASK generates candidate surface patterns as executable boolean expressions, filters them through a statistical validation protocol with independent replication, and establishes causal model dependence via verified counterfactual interventions. Causally confirmed features then serve as annotation-free group definitions for Deep Feature Reweighting, eliminating the group labels that standard DFR requires. Applied to BERT and RoBERTa trained on MNLI, our pipeline independently rediscovers established lexical-overlap and negation biases, verifying 9 of 10 features on BERT and 6 on RoBERTa, and improving HANS accuracy by up to 12.58 pp. On CivilComments-WILDS, programmatic groups match the 70.1% worst- group accuracy of hand-labeled DFR (Kirichenko et al., 2023) without demographic annotation. We further demonstrate that the discovery and validation stages generalize to reward model preference data, surfacing interpretable spurious correlations in RewardBench2.

Virtual cells employ machine learning models to simulate and predict cellular behaviors, serving as a critical computational framework for investigating health and disease. Injecting causal graphs into virtual cells can improve the interpretability, but such graphs are usually not available in real-world applications. Recently, many methods have been proposed to construct causal graphs from data, which group genes based on their similarities to form concepts and extract their causal relationships. However, since this automatic process is unsupervised, the causal graphs usually contain errors. In this paper, we propose a human-guided causal knowledge injection method for virtual cells. We developed a gene-similarity-aware causal graph visualization supported by a hybrid optimization algorithm to help explore both the causal relationships between concepts and the similarities between genes. Based on the exploration, we further developed a counterfactual analysis strategy supported by a counterfactual visualization and a causal path visualization to help validate and refine causal graphs. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through two real-world case studies, the extraction of scientifically meaningful causal insights, and positive feedback from domain experts.

A world model is only useful for physical AI if it changes what the agent does, and only safe if it declines to do so when it is wrong. We study both halves of that requirement with CausalNav, a controller built around a signed, action-conditioned transition graph over identified state coordinates. At deployment CausalNav simulates a small library of intervention sequences, converts their objective error into policy-logit advice, and admits that advice only when a scale-free predictive-reliability certificate, a policy-margin gate, and an argmax-agreement gate all pass; otherwise it falls back exactly to its own model-based base controller. We evaluate against nine controlled baselines (transformer, recurrent, split-latent, graph, causal-induction, and three recent model-based reasoning modules) on CartPole-v1 and discretized Pendulum-v1 with physical-parameter shifts, under one shared PPO trainer, one interaction budget, and ten held-out seeds (200 runs). CausalNav attains the best average rank (1.25 of ten). The diagnostic result is more informative than the ranking: the learned graph recovers structure well above chance (CartPole F1 = 0.59 +/- 0.09), yet per-seed structural fidelity is uncorrelated with per-seed control benefit (r = -0.15, p = 0.67), and the certificate abstains on 10/10 Pendulum seeds, where forcing the planner on costs return. Model fidelity did not predict downstream control utility in our setting; certified abstention, not better prediction, is what made the world model safe to deploy.

Dravidian languages, mainly Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, and Malayalam make up only a small part of the data used to train multilingual language models, so it's not clear how much per-language ability these models actually keep. I have trained five GPT-2 architecture models from scratch to compare four monolingual models (one each for Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, and Malayalam, each with its own 32K-vocabulary subword tokenizer) against one multilingual model sharing a 64K-vocabulary subword tokenizer across all four languages. All the 5 models are trained on cleaned CC-100, Wikipedia, and Samanantar data. I have tested the models on perplexity, bits-per-byte, tokenizer efficiency, and fine-tuning results which are compared against mGPT. The monolingual models outperform mGPT on sentiment classification and named entity recognition, and their tokenizers proved more efficient than the shared multilingual model across all the languages tested.

Probabilistic logic programming is a formalism of statistical relational artificial intelligence that supports causal queries, including interventions from outside the system. When the structure of a probabilistic logic program is learned from data, however, only probabilistic information is used, and a single probability distribution may be compatible with several causal orders. This leads to ambiguity in interventional reasoning, raising the question of when the causal order is uniquely determined by the distribution. Exploiting the relationship between acyclic probabilistic logic programs and Bayesian networks, we derive conditions under which the probabilistic information encoded in a program determines a unique causal order. We also incorporate constraints arising from relational structure by taking into account prescribed sets of causal symmetries induced by the underlying relational vocabulary. The result is a method for verifying when a learned probabilistic logic program supports well-defined intervention semantics.

Modern AI is no longer a single model but an ecosystem: classical ML predictors, deep and multimodal models, large language models, and agents, each trained and tuned over different data sources and each producing outputs at scale that become inputs to the others. Operating such an ecosystem is fundamentally a data integration problem - the knowledge it depends on is fragmented across dozens of heterogeneous, independently governed sources that must be reconciled and continually maintained. Yet integration alone is not enough. The predictions these systems make are shaped by many interacting factors, and the events, decisions, and variables that drive an outcome are routinely entangled with the ones that merely accompany it; treated as a basis for action, such correlational signals invite confounded decisions. This becomes acute once agents act autonomously: to be trustworthy and reliable, an agent must anticipate the consequences of its actions, not merely extrapolate from what has co-occurred before. Causal reasoning is what closes this gap, distinguishing the drivers of an outcome from its correlates, and enabling prescriptive and counterfactual analysis over the ecosystem's data. We therefore argue that the integrated ecosystem needs an explicit causal layer, and we propose to build it as a shared, persistent, queryable Causal World System (CWS).

Construction accident narratives contain rich causal information, but the evidence is often implicit, long-span, and distributed. We introduce ConstructCIE, a manually annotated dataset for Causal Information Extraction from OSHA construction accident reports. The dataset uses a hierarchical schema for accident types, causal factors, sub-causal factors, and supporting evidence spans. We evaluate supervised sequence taggers and instruction-tuned LLMs in an end-to-end hierarchical extraction setting. Results show that most evaluated models achieve strong accident-type prediction and recover broad causal meaning but remain limited in precise span-level extraction. JHE generally achieves stronger exact and soft matching, while IHE sometimes achieves higher keyword F1. Error distributions vary by extraction strategy, but evidence-selection and span-boundary errors remain common. These findings show that reliable Causal Information Extraction for construction accidents requires stronger domain grounding and more accurate evidence extraction.

Real-time long-form avatar audio-video generation requires causal, continuous synthesis while maintaining audiovisual synchronization and visual consistency. Adapting a pretrained bidirectional model to this setting presents two key dilemmas. First, autoregressively reusing generated blocks as context creates exposure bias, causing errors and visual drift to accumulate over long rollouts. Second, a global speech utterance does not indicates a causal generator which portion should be spoken next when only limited local audio-video context is available. We present Vorch-Streamer, a post-training framework that addresses these challenges and enables real-time long-form Text-to-Audio-Video (T2AV) streaming. We construct a synthetic corpus of 80K avatar clips spanning 12-21 seconds and first train a causal generator with mixed Teacher Forcing and Diffusion Forcing. We then apply long-horizon Self Forcing with DMD distillation, exposing the model to its own rollout distribution while preserving the quality of the pretrained bidirectional teacher. To explicitly control speech progression, an external language model predicts discrete 25-Hz speech-planning tokens, whose continuous features condition the audio diffusion branch and align each causal block with the content it should speak. With bounded causal context and four-step denoising, Vorch-Streamer jointly generates audio and video from text at 27.12 FPS, exceeding the 24-FPS real-time playback rate while maintaining competitive audio-lip synchronization and strong identity preservation over long-form generation.

QAOA training repeatedly queries an objective and all shared gradients, making exact evaluation a feasibility bottleneck even when QUBO terms have bounded causal cones. Building on established causal-cone restriction and adjoint differentiation, LC-Implicit-QAOA profiles cone structure and induced-edge counts before local-amplitude and named-workspace allocation, then jointly selects equal-size microbatches and checkpoint schedules under a named active-evaluator workspace budget. "Implicit" means omitting both global state and global cost table, not implicit differentiation; infeasible requests are rejected before those allocations. An independently implemented complex128/float64 dense adjoint agrees with LC over 1,800 graph-angle comparisons, with a worst relative gradient error of 1.56 x 10^-13. LC completes all 104 target requests in a p=2 bounded-cone grid; under a prespecified n <= 24 validation cap, the matched state-plus-cost reference is executed for 28 requests and deliberately not run on 76. Across 80 budgeted requests, measured allocated evaluator memory stays within budget, reaching at most 0.797 of it. On 3-regular n=512, p=2, the adjoint reaches the same finite-budget endpoint in 101 objective-equivalent calls and 189 s, versus 909 calls and 1,565 s for central differences. LC targets fixed-depth one- and two-local diagonal QUBO costs with a transverse-field mixer; it provides neither global states, sampling, nor a hardware-independent fastest-backend rule.

Generative models can reproduce an observational distribution while encoding an incorrect causal structure. We study a sequential game in which a structural causal generator proposes observational and interventional distributions, while an adversarial experimentalist selects interventions intended to maximally falsify the generator. The discriminator is therefore not merely a real-versus-synthetic classifier: it is indexed by an intervention and tests whether the generator reproduces the corresponding post-intervention law. We introduce Adversarial Causal Intervention Falsification (ACIF), formulate oracle and implementable versions of the game, and distinguish three objects that are often conflated: observational fit, interventional equivalence over an admissible query class, and point identification of a structural causal model. For finite model and intervention classes, we prove: (i) an exact reduction of the adversarial objective to a worst-intervention integral probability metric; (ii) identification up to interventional equivalence, with point identification under a separating intervention family; (iii) existence of mixed-strategy equilibria; (iv) finite-sample uniform convergence and margin-based model-selection guarantees; and (v) a logarithmic elimination guarantee for a disagreement-driven sequential design under a balanced-separation condition. We also give a complete linear-Gaussian example in which two observationally indistinguishable causal directions are separated by a single well-chosen intervention. The framework clarifies what an adversarial causal discriminator can and cannot certify, and provides a principled bridge between causal generative modeling, active causal discovery, and experimental design.

Self-distillation (SD) has emerged as a compute-efficient alternative to reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards: a self-teacher, conditioned on privileged information (PI) about the answer such as a reference solution, supplies dense per-token supervision to a student that never sees it. Reported gains, however, come almost exclusively from narrow, low-difficulty settings, leaving open a basic question: as a lone objective, with no reward term, does SD teach anything? We reproduce SDPO's reported gains in its easy setting, then apply the identical setup to difficult tasks and find that it does not. Across question answering, mathematics, coding, and multi-turn agentic tool use, across reasoning modes, model sizes, and forms of PI, and under both the SDPO and OPSD recipes, the per-token loss falls steadily while validation accuracy does not improve and typically degrades. We explain this failure through a single causal chain from the loss to the model it produces. The chain begins with PI bias: having seen one particular reference solution, the teacher's per-token target is pulled toward that trajectory rather than toward correctness in general, an effect we quantify with a PI Bias Score. Trained to match this target everywhere, the student's objective becomes nearly blind to whether a rollout is correct, and the loss it assigns falls mostly on low-information tokens like stopwords, punctuation, uncertainty markers, rather than those that determine the answer; within correct rollouts the exploratory tokens incur the highest divergence, so it penalizes the hesitation that reasoning requires. The result is a flatter, less decisive student that is no better at reasoning: as a lone objective, SD optimizes a signal decoupled from task success.

With the growing adoption of artificial intelligence in high-stakes decision-making, identifying the causes of outcomes--particularly failures--and determining who is responsible has become a critical concern. In this work, we examine how well formal definitions of \textit{responsibility attribution}, grounded in the framework of \textit{actual causality}, align with human judgments of responsibility. To this end, we conduct a large-scale survey to elicit human judgments of responsibility in multi-agent sequential decision-making scenarios, using a modified version of the card game Goofspiel. We evaluate multiple responsibility attribution methods, assess their alignment with human judgments about responsibility, and identify factors that significantly shape responsibility judgments. While no single responsibility attribution method consistently aligns with human responses, our findings highlight key factors that influence human responsibility judgments, including agent-specific biases and amount of information available to agents during decision-making.

Causal perception occurs when agents with competing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) of the same system infer different probability distributions, including the hypothetical distributions implied by each agent's SCM under the same set of interventions. It shapes how agents reason about the system and how they perceive its fairness. Causal perception is a promising probabilistic framework, but it has remained purely theoretical. This work provides the first implementation of the causal perception framework of Álvarez and Ruggieri (2025). We operationalize structural (agents disagree on the causal graph) and parametrical (agents agree on the causal graph but disagree on its weights) causal perception. We design algorithms for computing interventional and counterfactual distributions and propose suitable distance measures to quantify the disagreement. Using the German Credit dataset, we illustrate how causal perception affects accuracy and fairness in a multi-expert decision setting. We show that the perception verdict is sensitive to the choice of distance metric and threshold. We also show that causal perception changes fairness assessments and threshold-based decisions. Bias proves situated with respect to the agent's SCM, demonstrating that competing worldviews in fairness problems cannot be ignored.

Explaining the predictions of neural networks is a central challenge in trustworthy AI. Existing explanation methods, such as those based on feature attribution or minimal sufficient sets, typically treat input features as independent, which can yield misleading explanations when inputs exhibit structured dependencies. We address this by formalizing explanations as Halpern-Pearl (HP) actual causes, modeling input dependencies using Boolean Structural Causal Models (SCMs). We compute HP causes by applying bound propagation and branch-and-bound techniques, while providing formal guarantees of completeness and minimality. Our experiments show that we substantially outperform brute-force and ILP baselines in scalability, and outperform heuristic search as graph size grows, computing all minimal actual causes on instances with search spaces of up to $2.3\times10^{13}$ candidate (cause, contingency) pairs, on SCMs with up to 28 nodes, within a 180s per-instance budget. In a case study, we further show that ignoring input dependencies inflates the number of reported causes, 14.9% of which are spurious under our SCM.

Causal diagnostic models must explain how conclusions follow from evidence because diagnoses guide repairs and treatments. Yet serious cases are scarce, records rarely contain reasoning paths, and data transfer poorly across configurations, complicating local deployment. We present DiagLoop, a counterfactual data flywheel that converts codified physical relations or clinical guidelines, authored once per mechanism family, into training supervision beyond recorded cases. A training-only teacher proposes counterfactual worlds by varying causes, contexts, and observations, while an independent hybrid checker admits only valid worlds. The student reasons through symptom abstraction, causal-chain construction, and root-cause attribution. Stage-specific criteria identify its earliest failure. For nonterminal failures, a bounded repair probes downstream competence, and the resulting weakness profile guides subsequent data generation. Stage-localized reinforcement learning updates only the model-generated continuation, while replay and preservation reduce forgetting. The same criteria govern admission, attribution, reward, and regeneration through checks separate from the proposer. Using only synthesized scenarios and no case-level expert reasoning annotations, the resulting 8B model improves strict path correctness over the strongest conventional baseline. Gains are 11.6 points across eight industrial systems and 5.5 points across ten disease categories. Gains over a deranged-routing control are 3.9 and 2.3 points, respectively. The model also exceeds the evaluated proprietary references in both domains, even when they receive few-shot examples or the specification in context.

Many critical reasoning tasks, including clinical diagnosis, legal judgment, and industrial fault diagnosis, require step-dependent causal chains in which early errors propagate and correct conclusions can mask invalid reasoning. Although large language models perform well on such tasks, privacy, latency, and controllability motivate distillation into locally deployable models. Standard trajectory imitation does not correct process errors on the student's own rollout distribution. We propose CausalOPD, a curriculum online process distillation framework. A knowledge-augmented teacher first provides trajectories grounded in domain-specific causal rules, entity relations, and structural constraints. The student then generates on-policy trajectories, and the teacher identifies the first wrong step, defined as the earliest transition that verifiably violates available constraints. Starting from the verified prefix, short-horizon reinforcement learning repairs this localized failure. A causal-stage curriculum advances from evidence-level to mechanism-level and conclusion-level errors, following their propagation order. Across three domains, CausalOPD improves average path correctness by 23.4 percentage points over sequence-level online process distillation and reduces the right-label-wrong-reasoning rate from 15.7% to 4.4%. The domain-specific 8B students also surpass both evaluated proprietary references in path correctness across all domains.

Self-consistency assumes the most frequent answer among sampled reasoning traces is the most reliable, but this can fail in causal reasoning: samples often repeat the same confounding error, and votes fragment across multiple valid answers, letting an invalid answer win despite a valid minority trace. We introduce CALVER (Causal Axiom-Level VERification), a training-free symbolic verifier that scores structured traces against Pearl's causal criteria, including -separation, backdoor adjustment, and intervention, and selects the highest-scoring candidate without consulting a reference answer. On CLEAR find-one-valid queries that admit multiple graph-valid answers, CALVER reaches 42.1% where plurality, a reward model, an LLM judge, and model confidence remain near 30% on identical frozen pools. Scaling the judge to 72B does not close the gap. In an audited clean-core subset, 11 of 21 graph-valid CALVER selections differ from the benchmark's listed answer while still satisfying the requested predicate. The advantage widens with the sampling budget and reproduces across ten published Bayesian networks, a second model family, and settings where the model must build the graph from text. CALVER also improves thresholded average-treatment-effect decisions against exact ground truth, generalizes to logic under a truth-table checker, and scores each candidate in milliseconds on CPU. CALVER needs only a causal structure, supplied outright or built from the text; wherever that holds, selection can aggregate via causal validity.

Causal inference has traditionally centered on scalar outcomes: whether a patient recovers, how much a worker earns, or how many visits a website receives. Modern studies increasingly ask causal questions about outcomes with richer form, such as clinical notes, open-ended survey responses, and images. A hospital may want to know how an AI documentation tool changes the notes physicians write, or how a nurse training program alters what patients say in survey responses. For such outcomes, the usual average treatment effect is ill-defined: one cannot meaningfully subtract one text or image from another. To this end, we propose a causal query for unstructured outcomes. The key idea is to learn what features of the outcome are most causally affected by the treatment, which we call the maximally contrasting feature (MCF). To estimate the MCF, we learn a feature-scoring function that maps each outcome to a scalar and exposes the sharpest contrast between treated and control potential outcomes. We develop identification conditions and estimation algorithms for this query, and extend it to heterogeneous effects by allowing the feature-scoring function to depend on observed covariates. We also handle settings where both the treatment and the outcome are unstructured. Empirical studies on text and images show that the algorithm recovers salient aspects of an outcome changed by a treatment.