Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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39 papers in the last four weeks, up 290% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 279

May 9, 2026cs.LG

PACT: Peak-Aware Cross-Attention Graph Transformers for Efficient Storm-Surge Emulation

Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis--GCM gap.

Zesheng Liu, Doyup Kwon, Ning Lin +1

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Lehigh University · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University

PDE Surrogate Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting Time Series Transformers Spatiotemporal GNNs Weather Forecasting

May 9, 2026cs.CL

A Quantum Inspired Variational Kernel and Explainable AI Framework for Cross Region Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting

Reliable short horizon forecasting of solar and wind generation is a structural prerequisite of any modern power system yet most published forecasters are tuned and evaluated on a single climatic regime and most algorithmic novelty has been concentrated either on classical recurrent networks or on monolithic foundation models that combine forecasting and explanation We develop a four stage hybrid framework that separates these concerns The first stage acquires hourly generation irradiance and surface weather records through public application programming interfaces The second stage trains three classical baselines autoregressive integrated moving average gradient boosted regression trees and a two layer long short term memory network and produces a strong point forecast together with a residual error series The third stage corrects the residual through a quantum inspired variational kernel built on a six qubit hardware efficient ansatz with three repeated entangling layers The fourth stage uses generative artificial intelligence strictly as an explainability layer that reads the measured benchmark numbers and produces a structured natural language interpretation Across three regions drawn from open public archives Iberian solar North Sea wind and a mixed Texas trace the proposed configuration stays within one percentage point of the strongest classical baseline on the in domain forecasting task and the quantum inspired kernel separates calm and stormy weather regimes with a Fisher discriminant ratio approximately fifteen fold higher than a tuned radial basis kernel

Pavan Manjunath, Thomas Prufer

Independent Research Scholar, Germany

Time Series Forecasting Quantum-Inspired ML Solar Power Forecasting Quantum Kernel Methods Spatiotemporal Forecasting Wind Power Forecasting+1

May 9, 2026cs.AI

PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions. To address this challenge, we propose a universal framework called PnP-Corrector (Plug-and-Play Corrector). The core idea of our framework is to decouple the physical simulation from the error correction process: it freezes pre-trained physics simulation engines and exclusively trains a correction agent to proactively counteract the systematic biases emerging from the coupled system. Furthermore, we design an efficient predictive model architecture, DSLCast, to serve as the backbone of this framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the long-term stability and accuracy of coupled forecasting systems. For instance, in the challenging task of a 300-day global ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast, our PnP-Corrector framework reduces the prediction error of the baseline model by 28% and surpasses state-of-the-art models on several key metrics.

Hao Wu, Fan Xu, Yuxu Lu +9

Tsinghua University · Tencent · Shenzhen Loop Area Institute +6

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Climate Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 9, 2026cs.LG

Controlling Transient Amplification Improves Long-horizon Rollouts

Autoregressive neural simulators now match classical solvers on short-horizon prediction of physical systems, yet their accuracy degrades rapidly when rolled out over long horizons. In this work, we identify transient amplification of perturbations around rollout trajectories as a structural mechanism driving rollout error. Using a linearization analysis we show that when the Jacobians along an autoregressive trajectory are non-normal and non-commuting, the model amplifies errors transiently, resulting in model rollout drift even when the overall system is asymptotically stable. Building on the analysis, we propose commutativity regularization: a combination of two penalties designed to reduce the normality defect of individual Jacobians and the commutator norm of Jacobians across steps. The penalties are estimated with Jacobian-vector products and have no inference-time cost. We show a propagator bound that quantifies rollout error under approximate commutativity and normality. We evaluate UNet and FNO variants with commutativity regularization on 1D and 2D spatio-temporal data in synthetic and real settings, showing successful long-horizon rollouts over thousands of steps. Further, we show that the method improves FourCastNet climate forecasts on ERA5 without using any new data. The gain is most pronounced out-of-distribution: trained on trajectories of a few hundred steps, regularized models remain in-distribution for thousands of rollout steps on initial conditions where baselines diverge.

Adeel Pervez, Francesco Locatello

Institute of Science and Technology Austria Klosterneuburg, Austria

Jacobian Regularization Spatiotemporal Forecasting Autoregressive Modeling

May 8, 2026cs.LG

Exactness Matters for Physical Rule Enforcement

Autoregressive scientific forecasters often enforce physical or structural constraints by repairing each predicted state before feeding it back into the model. However, it remains unclear when stronger physical rule enforcement becomes reliable and when it becomes a source of distribution shift. We study this question through operator exactness, meaning whether the repair map is the identity on the target manifold and is aligned with the target geometry. We compare raw forecasting, post hoc repair, and in-loop repair across periodic incompressible Navier--Stokes, non-periodic CFDBench flows, and a hierarchical-forecasting support task. In the exact periodic regime, Fourier projection substantially improves rollout accuracy. On the NS-128 benchmark, a strong Raw-FNO has a final-step rollout MSE at horizon 100 of

(9.390 \pm 6.290)\times 10^{-5}

, and post hoc and in-loop projection reduce it to

(1.130 \pm 0.165)\times 10^{-6}

and

(5.370 \pm 0.113)\times 10^{-7}

. However, once an exact projection is unavailable and only approximate boundary-preserving cleanup is available, the ordering changes. Across cavity, tube, dam, and cylinder flow, stronger Poisson-based cleanup can reduce divergence while worsening rollout error; target-distortion MSE predicts this harm far better than a linear-system residual. Controlled mismatch, screened cleanup, adaptive gating, and external-backbone checks show that the best approximate-regime operating point can be raw or near-identity. Hierarchical forecasting gives the same broader pattern. Exact forecast reconciliation is a stable baseline, whereas blended top-down repair, a validation-tuned interpolation toward historical-proportion top-down reconciliation, is dataset-dependent. Thus, constraint enforcement should be benchmarked by operator--data alignment before enforcement strength.

Bum Jun Kim

The University of Tokyo, Japan

Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Computational Fluid Dynamics

May 8, 2026cs.LG

FlightSense: An End-to-End MLOps Platform for Real-Time Flight Delay Prediction via Rotation-Chain Propagation Features and Agentic Conversational AI

Flight delays impose cascading operational and financial burdens across the aviation network, costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually by disrupting interconnected aircraft rotation systems. While prior machine learning approaches have demonstrated strong predictive performance, most treat upstream delays as static input variables rather than explicitly modeling how delays propagate dynamically through aircraft rotation chains, and none have deployed such systems alongside a live weather-aware conversational AI interface for end-user interaction. This paper presents FlightSense, an end-to-end MLOps platform for real-time flight delay prediction built through a progressive three-version feature engineering framework. Version 1 trains an XGBoost classifier on 11 schedule-based features establishing a baseline ROC AUC of 0.732 on 7.07 million BTS 2018 On-Time Performance records. Version 2 introduces 11 delay propagation features derived from aircraft rotation chains via tail-number tracking, yielding the dominant performance gain (AUC 0.732 to 0.875) and surpassing the single-stage XGBoost baseline reported by Zhou (2025). Version 3 integrates five NOAA meteorological features across 10 major U.S. airports, achieving a final test set AUC of 0.879. FlightSense is deployed as a production AWS MLOps pipeline incorporating live weather ingestion via Lambda, real-time SageMaker inference, an interactive Streamlit dashboard, and an Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro conversational assistant answering natural-language delay queries via a tool-use architecture.

Aditi J. Shelke, Renuka J. Shelke, Yash M. Kamerkar +1

Stevens Institute of Technology Hoboken, NJ, USA · Axtria Inc. Berkeley Heights, NJ, USA · Meta Menlo Park, CA, USA

Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 8, 2026cs.LG

Efficient Prompt Learning for Traffic Forecasting

Accurate traffic prediction is essential for optimizing transportation systems, enhancing resource allocation, and improving overall urban administration. Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance and have been widely used in various spatio-temporal prediction scenarios. However, these prediction methods often exhibit low generalization ability, struggling with distribution shifts caused by spatio-temporal dynamics. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to enhance the generalization and adaptation of spatio-temporal GNNs through efficient prompting. Specifically, we introduce a lightweight and model-agnostic prompt tuning framework for spatio-temporal GNNs, named SimpleST. It facilitates adapting pre-trained spatio-temporal GNNs to novel distributions while keeping the model parameters fixed. This prompt mechanism reduces the overhead and complexity of adaptation, enabling efficient utilization of pre-trained models for out-of-distribution generalization. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world urban spatio-temporal datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

Qianru Zhang, Xinyi Gao, Alexander Zhou +3

School of Computing and Data Science The University of Hong Kong · School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science The University of Queensland · Department of Computing The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

OOD Generalization Prompt Tuning Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 7, 2026cs.LG

TraXion: Rethinking Pre-training Frameworks for Mobility and Beyond

Human mobility differs from text and from generic time series in three structural ways: visits are tuple-valued events whose meaning depends on the joint distribution over location, time, and activity; users carry persistent signatures across trajectories; and visits are not independent across users, since co-location at shared places is a primary signal. Existing pre-training recipes for mobility import objectives from language modeling, treating trajectories as sentences and visits as tokens, an analogy that fails against each of the three properties above. These properties define a broader class, multi-entity spatiotemporal event streams (MESES), spanning enterprise authentication logs, electronic health records, and other event-stream domains where entities share infrastructure, schedules, or contexts. We make the properties precise as three axioms that any pre-training framework for MESES should satisfy, and introduce TraXion, whose objectives and architecture are jointly designed to meet them. A single TraXion checkpoint per dataset beats task-specific baselines on every task across six public mobility datasets covering anomaly detection, next-POI recommendation, next-visit prediction, and social-link prediction. The same recipe, applied unchanged to enterprise authentication logs and ICU mortality prediction, matches or exceeds prior work on both, showing that event streams from domains as different as mobility, security, and healthcare can be modeled under a single framework.

Shang-Ling Hsu, Mark Tenzer, Cyrus Shahabi +1

University of Southern California · Novateur Research Solutions

Self-Supervised Pre-Training Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 7, 2026cs.AI

SpatialEpiBench: Benchmarking Spatial Information and Epidemic Priors in Forecasting

Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for public health response, resource allocation, and outbreak intervention, but remains difficult with sparse, noisy, and highly non-stationary data. Because epidemics unfold across interacting regions, spatiotemporal methods are natural candidates for improving forecasts. Despite growing interest in spatial information, no standardized benchmark exists, and current evaluations often use simple chronological train-test splits that do not reflect real-time forecasting practice. We address this gap with SpatialEpiBench, a challenging benchmark for spatiotemporal epidemic forecasting in realistic public-health settings. SpatialEpiBench includes 11 epidemic datasets with standardized rolling evaluations and outbreak-specific metrics. We evaluate adjacency-informed forecasting models with widely used epidemic priors that adapt general models to epidemiology, but find that most methods underperform a simple last-value baseline from 1 day to 1 month ahead, even during outbreaks and with these priors. We identify three major failure modes: (1) poor outbreak anticipation, (2) difficulty handling sparsity and noise, and (3) limited utility of common geographic adjacency for epidemiological spatial information. We release benchmark data, code, and instructions at https://github.com/Rachel-Lyu/SpatialEpiBench to support development of operationally useful epidemic forecasting models.

Ruiqi Lyu, Alistair Turcan, Bryan Wilder

1Carnegie Mellon University

Epidemic Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 7, 2026cs.DC

SWIFT: Spatio-temporal Wavelet Integrated Forecasting Framework for Workload Traces

Accurate cloud workload forecasting is pivotal for efficient resource management but remains challenging as workloads are highly volatile and prone to sudden bursts. Although wavelets preserve temporal locality, rigid fixed bases struggle with complex patterns and isolated processing neglects critical spatial dependencies. To address this, we propose SWIFT, a pure convolutional framework designed for high-efficiency workload forecasting. We introduce a Learnable Cascaded Wavelet Path that reformulates the traditional fixed wavelet bases into adaptive convolutional operators, enabling precise, data-driven feature peeling. Complementing this, our Multivariate Interaction Module sequentially models inter-variable spatial and intra-variable feature interactions to stabilize and refine noisy workload states. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SWIFT achieves SOTA accuracy with linear O(L) complexity, reducing prediction error by up to 31.04% while cutting latency by 79.74%.

Zeyuan Ding, Lingfeng Zheng, Dian Ding +1

1Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China · 2Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Wavelet Methods Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 7, 2026cs.AI

AirQualityBench: A Realistic Evaluation Benchmark for Global Air Quality Forecasting

Air-quality forecasting models are commonly evaluated on regional, preprocessed, and normalized datasets, where missing observations are removed or artificially completed. Such protocols simplify comparison but hide the conditions that dominate real monitoring networks: uneven global coverage, structured missingness, heterogeneous pollutant scales, and deployment cost. We introduce \textbf{AirQualityBench}, a global multi-pollutant benchmark designed to evaluate forecasting models under these realistic conditions. The benchmark contains hourly observations from 3,720 monitoring stations over 2021--2025, covers six major pollutants, and preserves provider-native observation masks. Rather than imputing a dense data tensor, AirQualityBench exposes missingness as part of the forecasting problem and reports errors on valid future observations after inverse transformation to physical concentration scales. Evaluating representative spatio-temporal models under this unified protocol shows that strong performance on sanitized datasets does not reliably transfer to global, fragmented monitoring streams. AirQualityBench therefore serves as a realistic testbed for scalable, mask-aware, and physically interpretable air-quality forecasting. All benchmark data, code, evaluation scripts, and baseline implementations are available at GitHub.

Xing Xu, Xu Wang, Yudong Zhang +3

University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), Hefei, Anhui, China · 2Suzhou Institute for Advanced Research, USTC, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China · 3The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

Benchmark Design Time Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Air Quality Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 7, 2026cs.LG

CoMemNet: Contrastive Sampling with Memory Replay Network for Continual Traffic Prediction

In recent years, the integration of non-topological space modeling with temporal learning methods has emerged as an effective approach for capturing spatio-temporal information in non-Euclidean graphs. However, most existing methods rely on static underlying graph structures, which are inadequate for capturing the continuously expanding and evolving patterns in streaming traffic networks. To address this challenge, we propose a simple yet efficient dual-branch continual learning framework for traffic prediction, named CoMemNet. The fast-converging Online branch undertakes the primary prediction tasks, while the momentum-updated Target branch extracts historical information using Wasserstein Distance features to create a Dynamic Contrastive Sampler (DC Sampler). This sampler selects a node set with significant dynamic network feature changes for training, effectively mitigating the issue of catastrophic forgetting. Additionally, the backbone incorporates a lightweight Node-Adaptive Temporal Memory Buffer (TMRB-N) to consolidate old knowledge through memory replay and address the risk of memory explosion. Finally, we provide two newly curated open-source datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that CoMemNet achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across all three large-scale real-world datasets. The code is available at: https://github.com/meiwu5/CoMemNet.

Mei Wu, Wenchao Weng, Wenxin Su +2

College of Computer Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China · College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China · School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China

Contrastive Learning Traffic Flow Estimation Dynamic Graph Learning Replay-Based Continual Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 7, 2026cs.LG

Towards Scalable One-Step Generative Modeling for Autoregressive Dynamical System Forecasting

Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories. Neural operators provide inexpensive autoregressive forecasts but can drift in turbulent regimes, whereas rolling diffusion and latent generative surrogates can represent stochastic transitions at the cost of multi-step denoising, noise-schedule design, or auxiliary compression models. We propose MeanFlow Long-term Invariant Spatiotemporal Consistency Autoregressive Models (MeLISA), a latent-free autoregressive generative surrogate built on pixel-space MeanFlow. MeLISA defines a blockwise stochastic transition kernel that generates each forecast block with a single model evaluation, avoiding latent encoders and iterative diffusion solvers at inference time. To stabilize long-horizon rollouts, MeLISA combines a Window-Consistency MeanFlow objective that learns conditional spatiotemporal generation from partially observed temporal windows with a Time Increment Consistency loss that constrains multi-lag finite increments and targets temporal-correlation structure. We evaluate MeLISA with compact UNet and scalable DiT backbones on two high-resolution benchmarks, extended 2D Kolmogorov flow at

256 \times 256

and turbulent channel-flow slice at

192 \times 192

. MeLISA outperforms neural-operator baselines on short-term forecasting accuracy and long-horizon statistical metrics, including energy spectra, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing-rate-related dynamics, while achieving inference speeds comparable to, and in some cases faster than, neural operators. Compact 3.7-5.7M-parameter variants already deliver strong parameter efficiency, and DiT variants provide a scalable path up to 150M parameters. Overall, MeLISA benefits both rollout efficiency and long-horizon statistical accuracy.

Tianyue Yang, Xiao Xue

The Center for Computational Science University College London

PDE Surrogate Modeling One-Step Generative Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting Computational Fluid Dynamics Autoregressive Modeling

May 6, 2026cs.LG

Federated Learning for Early Prediction of EV Charging Demand

Accurate forecasting of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is critical for grid stability, infrastructure planning, and real-time charging optimization. In this work, we study the problem of early prediction of charging demand, where the total energy of a session is estimated using only information available at plug-in time and during the first minutes of charging. This enables actionable decisions while the session is still in progress, which is of direct importance for EV network operators. We construct a session-level dataset from the Adaptive Charging Network (ACN), combining session metadata with early-window charging measurements, and derive tabular features capturing user intent, temporal patterns, and initial charging behavior. We focus on a single operational depot, Caltech, and model intra-depot heterogeneity through station-level client partitions while evaluating multiple model families in a federated learning (FL) setting. Our results show that federated models can approach centralized predictive performance while keeping data in-depot, enabling privacy-enhanced training across distributed charging infrastructures. Overall, we demonstrate that reliable demand estimates can be obtained early in the session with minimal data, and that FL provides a practical pathway toward scalable and privacy-aware analytics for EV charging networks. Code is available at https://github.com/Indigma-Innovations/federated-learning-ev-charging-demand.

Vasilis Perifanis, Foteini Nikolaidou, Nikolaos Pavlidis +2

Indigma Innovations

Electric Vehicle Charging Spatiotemporal Forecasting Federated Learning

May 6, 2026cs.LG

Delving into Non-Exchangeability for Conformal Prediction in Graph-Structured Multivariate Time Series

Point forecasting for graph-structured multivariate time series is a fundamental problem, but rigorous uncertainty quantification for such predictions is still underexplored. Conformal prediction (CP) offers uncertainty estimation with a solid coverage guarantee under the exchangeability assumption, which requires the joint data distribution to be unchanged under permutation. However, in graph-structured time series, inherent cross-node coupling can violate the exchangeability condition, making direct application of CP unreliable. Inspired by the spectral graph theory, such coupling resides in global trends and can be characterized by the low-frequency components, while high-frequency components are nearly exchangeable. Therefore, we propose a novel concept named Spectral Graph Conditional Exchangeability (SGCE), which conditions exchangeable high-frequency components on low-frequency ones to preserve global trends and enable effective CP in the spectral domain. Based on SGCE, we further propose Spectral Conformal prediction via wAveLEt transform (SCALE). SCALE uses graph wavelets to decompose low/high-frequency components and conformalizes high-frequency residuals via adaptive gating over a low-frequency embedding. Experimental results on real-world traffic datasets show that SCALE not only achieves valid coverage but also consistently improves the coverage-efficiency trade-off over the state-of-the-art CP methods.

Ruichao Guo, Xingyao Han, Luo Wenshui +3

School of Automation and Intelligent Sensing, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Conformal Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting Regression Prediction Intervals

May 5, 2026cs.LG

Road Risk Monitor: A Deployable U.S. Road Incident Forecasting System with Live Weather and Road-Level Tiles

Nationwide road-incident forecasting is a systems problem before it is a modeling problem. A usable service must connect historical incident archives, historicalandliveweather,nationalroadgeometry, offline model training, tile generation, web serving and runtime handoff. This paper presents Road Risk Monitor, a U.S.-wide road-safety stack that combines a nationwide H3 baseline trained on FARS fatal-crash data with a road-segment forecasting pipeline trained from TIGER/Line geometry and US-Accidents events, then serves predictions through live APIs, raster tiles, JSON road tiles, and a public web application.

Anton Ivchenko

Intelligent Transportation Systems Traffic Accident Anticipation Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting

May 5, 2026cs.CV

Densification and forecasting of Sentinel-2 time series from multimodal SAR and Optical satellite data using deep generative models

Optical satellite image time series are extensively used in many Earth observation applications, including agriculture, climate monitoring, and land surface analysis. However, clouds and swath edges result in irregular sampling along the temporal dimension, limiting continuous monitoring. To address this issue, a growing body of work has focused on temporal densification and reconstruction of satellite image time series, with the objective of filling missing or cloud-contaminated observations within the temporal extent of the available data. While these approaches improve temporal continuity, they are inherently restricted to the reconstruction of the gaps within the observed time periods, and do not address the prediction of future observations. This work proposes a probabilistic deep learning framework for the densification and forecasting of Sentinel-2 time series by generating optical images at arbitrary past or future dates. The approach leverages multimodal satellite data by jointly exploiting Sentinel-2 optical and Sentinel-1 SAR observations. Unlike most existing works, we propose to focus on the uncertainty of the generated images. Experimental results demonstrate effective densification and forecasting, on sparse and temporally misaligned time series.

Véronique Defonte, Dawa Derksen, Alexandre Constantin +1

Thales Services Num´eriques 31670 Lab`ege, France · Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales 31400 Toulouse, France

Irregular Time-Series Modeling Remote Sensing Spatiotemporal Forecasting Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

May 5, 2026cs.LG

Enabling Real-Time Training of a Wildfire-to-Smoke Map with Multilinear Operators

Wildfires are a major producer of fine particulate matter, impacting human health and the electrical grid. Accurately forecasting smoke impacts over long time scales incorporates fuel treatment strategies, natural fuel succession, and stochastic events like lightning strikes. However, predicting smoke for each fuel distribution with a forward simulation of a coupled fire-atmosphere model is computationally infeasible. Moreover, relatively simple fire models are tractable to run in many long-time scenarios but do not capture smoke transport. We use data-driven multilinear operators to predict a smoke concentration field from knowledge of the time since ignition for two quantities of interest: aerosol optical depth and smoke detection. Our method first computes the principal components of time-since-ignition and smoke concentration fields and then learns a map from powers of the input coefficients to the output coefficients. We apply our learned operator to smoke prediction in the Upper Rio Grande Watershed. After collecting training data, learning the approximation weights on a CPU takes less than 30 seconds, and each forward call takes less than 1 ms. On a proxy for aerosol optical depth, we obtain equal accuracy to Monte Carlo sampling with fewer than half as many coupled model calls. For smoke detection, we obtain an intersection-over-union (IoU) of 0.64 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.95 on holdout data. Our method is significantly more accurate than the most similar published smoke classifier, which obtains an IoU and AUC of 0.15 and 0.61, respectively, on a 2015 bushfire in Australia.

Zachary Morrow, Joseph Crockett, John D. Jakeman +1

Sandia National Laboratories 1515 Eubank Blvd SE, Albuquerque, NM 87123

Surrogate Modeling Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Operator Learning

May 5, 2026physics.flu-dyn

Conditional Neural Field based Reduced Order Model for Dynamic Ditching Load Prediction

Grid-based neural networks such as convolutional autoencoders are widely used in dimension reduction-based surrogate models for computational fluid dynamics. In recent years, the use of coordinate-based approaches like conditional neural fields has emerged. Their independence of the spatial discretization is a beneficial feature for various applications in computational fluid dynamics. This paper discusses the spatio-temporal prediction of aircraft ditching loads using a conditional neural field approach. The model is evaluated using two datasets for the dynamic loads of the fuselage of a DLR-D150 aircraft, one of which relates to a single fixed spatial discretization and the other that includes data from different discretizations. When paired with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network in the latent space, the neural field-based model achieves a spatio-temporal prediction accuracy for the first data set that is close to that of grid-dependent convolutional autoencoder-based models, and with significantly less parameters. Results for the second data set demonstrate the ability of the neural field-based approach to reconstruct ditching loads accurately for heterogeneous spatial discretizations. This allows for flexible use of training datasets generated for different geometries and/or discretizations, as well as the use of the surrogate model to predict loads for different configurations.

Henning Schwarz, Pyei Phyo Lin, Jens-Peter M. Zemke +1

Institute for Fluid Dynamics and Ship Theory, Hamburg University of Technology, Am Schwarzenberg-Campus 4, D-21073 Hamburg, Germany · Institute of Mathematics, Hamburg University of Technology, Am Schwarzenberg-Campus 3, D-21073 Hamburg, Germany

Neural Surrogate Modeling Implicit Neural Representations Reduced-Order Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting Computational Fluid Dynamics

May 5, 2026cs.LG

GraphSVR: A Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression Framework for Robust Spatiotemporal Air Pollution Forecasting

Urban air quality forecasting is challenging because pollutant concentrations are nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent, and often affected by anomalous observations caused by traffic congestion, industrial emissions, and seasonal meteorological variability. This study proposes a Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression (GraphSVR) framework for robust spatiotemporal forecasting of urban air pollution. The model combines graph convolutional learning to capture inter-station spatial dependence with support vector regression to model nonlinear temporal dynamics while reducing sensitivity to outlier observations. The proposed framework is evaluated using air quality records from 37 monitoring stations in Delhi and 18 stations in Mumbai, representing inland and coastal metropolitan environments in India. Forecasting performance is assessed across multiple horizons and compared with established temporal and spatiotemporal benchmarks. The results show that GraphSVR consistently improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone pollution episodes. Statistical test further confirms the reliability of the proposed approach across the datasets. Furthermore, the conformal prediction approach is integrated with GraphSVR to generate calibrated prediction intervals, enhancing its practical value for uncertainty-aware air quality monitoring and public health decision-making.

Nourin Jahan, Muhammed Navas T, Tanujit Chakraborty +1

Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India · SAFIR, Sorbonne University, Abu Dhabi, UAE · SCAI - Sorbonne Cluster for Artificial Intelligence, Paris, France +1

Air Quality Prediction Support Vector Machines Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 5, 2026cs.LG

Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs for Large Scale Traffic Forecasting

Spatiotemporal forecasting in physical systems, such as large-scale traffic networks, requires modeling a dual dynamic: continuous macroscopic rhythms and discrete, unpredictable microscopic shocks. While Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) excel at capturing smooth evolution, their inherent Lipschitz continuity constraints inevitably cause severe over-smoothing when confronting abrupt anomalies. Recent physics-informed methods attempt to bypass this by penalizing numerical integration errors to enforce manifold smoothness. However, we mathematically reveal that such rigid regularization inherently triggers gradient conflicts and ``attention collapse,'' stripping the model of its sensitivity to anomalies. To resolve this continuity-shock dilemma, we propose Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs (LTE-ODE). Rather than treating numerical error as a nuisance to be eliminated, we innovatively repurpose the Local Truncation Error (LTE) as an unsupervised forward inductive bias. By mapping the LTE into a dynamic spatial attention mask, our architecture gracefully preserves high-precision continuous ODE evolution in stable regions, while adaptively triggering a discrete compensation branch exclusively at shock points. Trained purely end-to-end without manifold penalties, LTE-ODE achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple large-scale benchmarks, exhibiting exceptional robustness against highly non-linear fluctuations. Furthermore, our ablation on integration steps demonstrates high deployment flexibility, allowing the model to seamlessly adapt to varying hardware memory constraints in real-world applications.

Xiao Zhang, Yafei Li, Ruixiang Wang +3

Zhengzhou University · Northwestern Polytechnical University

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Neural ODEs Traffic Forecasting

May 4, 2026cs.CV

Boundary-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for Wildfire Spread Prediction

Reliable wildfire spread prediction is vital for risk-aware emergency planning, yet most deep learning models lack principled uncertainty quantification (UQ). Further, for boundary-sensitive cases like wildfire spread, evaluating models with global metrics alone is often insufficient. To shift the focus of UQ evaluation toward a more operationally relevant approach, the Fire-Centered Evaluation Region (FCER) framework is introduced as a spatially conditioned protocol to characterize UQ within critical fire zones. Using FCER, an Ensemble is compared against an distilled single-pass student model on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The student model demonstrates comparable calibration and complementary uncertainty ranking in boundary-relevant regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/WildfireUQ-FCER

Jonas V. Funk

Independent Research 76199 Karlsruhe, Germany

Uncertainty Quantification Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Uncertainty Calibration

May 2, 2026cs.CV

CNN-based Multi-In-Multi-Out Model for Efficient Spatiotemporal Prediction

Recently, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) or Transformer architecture based models have been proposed to overcome the limitations of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based models in spatiotemporal prediction. These models prevent the inefficiency of parallelization limitation due to the sequential properties and stacked error due to the recursive method, and show high performance. Novertheless, there are still some challengies. First, CNN based models have difficulty considering global information due to the local properties of the kernel, and their performance is limited. In addition, information is mixed because the time axis is combined with the channel axis of the image for processing. Models based on Transformer architecture have high complexity due to the self-attention calcuation and take a long training time. In this paper, we propose a new structure model called CNN-based Multi-In-Multi-Out model for Efficient Spatiotemporal Prediction (MIMO-ESP) to overcome these limitations. MIMO-ESP considers global information and significantly improves complexity by configuring a Transformer architecture based on CNN. In addition, it treats the time axis as an independent axis without combining it, and effectively considers spatiotemporal information together by applying dilation. This structure makes MIMO-ESP efficient and high performance. Extensive experiment results on three promising benchmark datasets which including video, traffic, and precipitation prediction tasks demonstrate that the usefulness of MIMO-ESP due to the achieved competitive efficiency while outperforming existing models. Furthermore, the ablation study results demonstrate the usefulness of the components of MIMO-ESP, emphasizing the potential of the proposed approaches.

Hyeonseok Jin

Department of Artificial Intelligence Convergence, Graduate School, Chonnam National University

Efficient Neural Network Inference Precipitation Forecasting Hybrid CNN-Transformer Architectures Video Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting

May 2, 2026cs.LG

Arbitrarily Conditioned Hierarchical Flows for Spatiotemporal Events

Events in spatiotemporal systems are ubiquitous, yet modeling their complex distributions remains challenging. Existing point process models often rely on strong structural assumptions and are typically limited to autoregressive, event-by-event prediction. As a result, they struggle to support broader inference tasks such as inverse inference, trajectory reconstruction, and recovery of missing event locations. We introduce Arbitrarily Conditioned Hierarchical Flows (ARCH), a hierarchical flow matching framework for spatiotemporal event modeling. ARCH is expressive enough to capture complex event distributions while enabling tractable and accurate computation of conditional intensities, which quantify instantaneous event risk. Built on a history-encoder-generative-decoder architecture, ARCH introduces a hybrid masking strategy for flexible conditioning on arbitrary observed events. This enables a unified treatment of forecasting, inverse inference, and partial trajectory recovery within a single framework. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that ARCH consistently outperforms existing baselines across both prediction and conditional inference tasks.

Keyan Chen, Qiwei Yuan, Zhitong Xu +2

Kahlert School of Computing University of Utah · Celonis AI

Temporal Point Processes Flow Matching Spatiotemporal Forecasting Conditional Generative Modeling

May 1, 2026cs.LG

Federated Weather Modeling on Sensor Data

Federated weather modeling on sensor data is a distributed system underpinned by federated learning, enabling multiple sensor data sources, including ground weather stations, satellites and IoT devices, to collaboratively train deep learning models without sharing raw data. This method safeguards data privacy and security while leverages diverse, geographically distributed datasets to improve the accuracy and robustness of global/regional weather modeling tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection.

Shengchao Chen, Guodong Long

Australian AI Institute, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Technology Sydney, Australia

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting

Apr 30, 2026cs.RO

Predictive Spatio-Temporal Scene Graphs for Semi-Static Scenes

We have seen tremendous recent progress in our ability to build "spatio-semantic" representations that enable robots to perform complex reasoning across geometry and semantics. However, the vast majority of these methods lack any ability to perform reasoning across time. This is a desirable property in situations where a robot repeatedly observes an environment where instances may change in between observations, but in a structured way. Consider as an example a home environment where the location of a mug typically moves from the cupboard to a countertop to the sink and then back to the cupboard on a daily basis. We should be able to learn this cyclic behavior and use it to predict the state of the mug in the future. In this work, we propose a method that is able to perform this type of tempo-spatio-semantic reasoning. Underpinning the method is a filter, Perpetua

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, that performs Bayesian reasoning on the states of the environment that are observed over time. This filter is integrated within a 3D scene graph structure that we call PredictiveGraphs, where nodes represent objects and edges function as Perpetua

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filters encoding spatio-semantic relationships. We validate the method in both simulation and real-world dynamic navigation tasks, where our real world experiments consist of an environment that is undergoing semi-static changes at a bi-hourly frequency over a period of three weeks. In both settings, we demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines in predicting future environment states, even in the presence of distributional shifts.

Miguel Saavedra-Ruiz, Charlie Gauthier, Kumaraditya Gupta +4

Department of Computer Science and Operations Research, Universit´e de Montr´eal, Montr´eal, QC, Canada. · Mila - Quebec AI Institute, Montreal, QC, Canada. · Independent Researcher. +1

Spatiotemporal Reasoning Spatiotemporal Forecasting Robotic Perception

Apr 30, 2026cs.LG

Comparative Analysis of Polygon-Based and Global Machine Learning Models for Bus Occupancy Prediction

Accurate forecasting of bus ridership (passengers numbers) is crucial for efficient management and optimization of public transport systems. Traditional forecasting models often fail to capture the unique and localized dynamics of different urban areas by treating the entire city as a single, homogeneous region. This paper introduces a novel framework that enhances bus ridership prediction by integrating a spatial clustering methodology with multi-dimensional feature analysis. The proposed framework utilizes a diverse set of data, including bus ridership data (by route number, time, and bus stop) complemented by a variety of open source data, such as spatial features (e.g., attractive destinations), meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature, rainfall), and temporal patterns (e.g., time of day, day of week). By clustering the urban area into distinct regions, based on the principle that bus stops in close proximity share similar ridership characteristics, a separate local forecasting model is trained for each of these clusters. This localized approach demonstrates an accuracy comparable to that of global models. The findings suggest that a spatially-aware, localized modeling strategy is effective for public transport prediction, paving the way for more targeted and efficient service improvements.

Daniel Azenkot, Michael Fire, Eran Ben Elia

Faculty of Computer and Information Science, University of Ben Gurion, Be’er Sheva, Israel · Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion, Israel

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Apr 30, 2026cs.LG

Toward Scalable SDN for LEO Mega-Constellations: A Graph Learning Approach

Terrestrial network limitations drive the integration of non-terrestrial networks (NTNs), notably mega-constellations comprising thousands of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. While these satellites act as interconnected network switches via inter-satellite links (ISLs), their massive scale creates severe bottlenecks for network management. To address this, we propose a scalable, hierarchical software-defined networking (SDN) framework. Our architecture leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) to compactly represent the constellation topology, and Koopman theory to linearize nonlinear dynamics. Specifically, a Graph Koopman Autoencoder (GKAE) forecasts spatio-temporal behavior within a linear subspace for each orbital shell. A central SDN controller then aggregates these shell-level predictions for globally coordinated control. Simulations on the Starlink constellation demonstrate that our approach achieves at least a 42.8% improvement in spatial compression and a 10.81% improvement in temporal forecasting compared to established baselines, all while utilizing a significantly smaller model footprint.

Sivaram Krishnan, Bassel Al Homssi, Zhouyou Gu +3

School of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5000, Australia

Graph Neural Networks Wireless Communications LEO Satellite Networks Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Apr 30, 2026cs.LG

PINN-Cast: Exploring the Role of Continuous-Depth NODE in Transformers and Physics Informed Loss as Soft Physical Constraints in Short-term Weather Forecasting

Operational weather prediction has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP), whose accuracy comes at the cost of substantial compute and complex simulation workflows. Recent transformer-based forecasters offer efficient data-driven alternatives, however transformers are physics-agnostic models. Additionally, standard transformer encoders evolve representations through discrete layer updates that may be less suited to modeling smooth latent dynamics. In this work, we propose a continuous-depth transformer encoder for weather forecasting that integrates Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) dynamics within each encoder block. Specifically, we replace discrete residual updates with ODE-based updates solved using adaptive numerical integration. We also introduce a two-branch attention module that combines conventional patch-wise self-attention with an auxiliary branch that applies a derivative operator to attention logits, providing an additional change-sensitive interaction signal. To further align forecasts with governing principles, we propose a customized physics-informed training objective that enforces physical consistency as a soft constraint. We evaluate the proposed method against a standard discrete transformer baseline and an existing continuous-time Neural ODE forecasting variant, demonstrating the importance of PINN-Cast in short term weather forecasting.

Hira Saleem, Flora Salim, Cormac Purcell

University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Transformer Physics-Informed ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting Neural ODEs Weather Forecasting

Apr 29, 2026physics.ao-ph

Continuous Flood Nowcasting in South Asia: A Multi-Sensor Ensemble Remote Sensing Framework for Flood Extent

Pakistan experienced an unusually severe flood season between June and December 2025, with cascading impacts on population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Existing operational flood products (e.g., UNOSAT) provide valuable episode-level snapshots but rarely deliver spatially and temporally continuous inundation maps at near-real-time latency within the country. We present a multi-sensor, ensemble-based remote-sensing framework for continuous flood nowcasting in Pakistan that integrates Sentinel-1 SAR, Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel (HLS L30 and S30), MODIS, and VIIRS observations on a harmonized grid in Google Earth Engine. The framework employs a tiered nowcasting ensemble that prioritizes higher-resolution sensors (Sentinel-1 and HLS) and falls back to MODIS and VIIRS when necessary, preserving daily continuity of flood extent at each sensor's native resolution. Applied to the 2025 monsoon period, the system generates near-real-time, spatially consistent inundation maps across Pakistan. As a nowcasting case study, we track the super-flood of 26 August-7 September 2025 day by day, demonstrating the framework's ability to capture the evolving flood footprint in near real time and extend beyond the temporal limits of episodic mapping products. Validation against GloFAS discharge anomalies and precipitation datasets (CHIRPS v3.0, MSWEP) shows strong agreement with observed hydrometeorological conditions. By integrating nowcast outputs with exposure layers (WorldPop, ESA WorldCover, Giga-HOTOSM), the framework enables rapid estimation of affected populations, cropland, and critical infrastructure, supporting timely disaster response and resilience planning in South Asia.

Usman Nazir, Disha Gomathinayagam, Muhammad Kamran +1

Planetary Health Informatics (PHI) Lab, University of Oxford · Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford · PMIU Secretariat, Irrigation Department, Pakistan

Flood Inundation Mapping Remote Sensing Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multimodal Sensor Fusion