State Estimation

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8 papers in the last 28 days · 0.1% of indexed attention

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Period ending 2026-09-21

7 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in State Estimation.

Period ending 2026-09-14

1 new paper

A weekly snapshot of new work published in State Estimation.

86 papers

Latest in State Estimation

May 17, 2026cs.RO

Efficient Feature-Free Initialization for Monocular Visual-Inertial Systems Using a Feed-Forward 3D Model

Fast and reliable initialization is critical for monocular visual-inertial navigation systems (VINS), as it establishes the starting conditions for subsequent state estimation. Despite steady progress, most existing methods heavily rely on visual feature correspondences and require 3-4 seconds of sensory data for successful initialization, which limits their applicability and efficiency. With the advent of feed-forward 3D models that can directly predict point clouds from images, we revisit the visual-inertial initialization problem from a concise perspective. In this work, we propose a feature-free initialization framework that leverages up-to-scale point clouds predicted by a feed-forward 3D model, thereby obviating the need for visual feature tracking and estimation. This design substantially reduces system complexity and improves the reliability of initialization. Experiments on public datasets demonstrate that the proposed feature-free initialization method achieves the highest success rate, exceeding 90%, and significantly reduces the data duration required for successful initialization, typically to under 1.2 s. We further validate our method on a self-collected dataset covering various indoor and outdoor scenarios, demonstrating robust performance, particularly in visually degraded environments where existing methods often fail. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/Yuantai-Z/FF-VIO-Init.
Yuantai Zhang, Jiaqi Yang, Huajian Zeng +5
May 14, 2026cs.RO

CoCo-InEKF: State Estimation with Learned Contact Covariances in Dynamic, Contact-Rich Scenarios

Robust state estimation for highly dynamic motion of legged robots remains challenging, especially in dynamic, contact-rich scenarios. Traditional approaches often rely on binary contact states that fail to capture the nuances of partial contact or directional slippage. This paper presents CoCo-InEKF, a differentiable invariant extended Kalman filter that utilizes continuous contact velocity covariances instead of binary contact states. These learned covariances allow the method to dynamically modulate contact confidence, accounting for more nuanced conditions ranging from firm contact to directional slippage or no contact. To predict these covariances for a set of predefined contact candidate points, we employ a lightweight neural network trained end-to-end using a state-error loss. This approach eliminates the need for heuristic ground-truth contact labels. In addition, we propose an automated contact candidate selection procedure and demonstrate that our method is insensitive to their exact placement. Experiments on a bipedal robot demonstrate a superior accuracy-efficiency tradeoff for linear velocity estimation, as well as improved filter consistency compared to baseline methods. This enables the robust execution of challenging motions, including dancing and complex ground interactions -- both in simulation and in the real world.
Michael Baumgartner, David Müller, Agon Serifi +4
May 13, 2026cs.RO

Galilean State Estimation for Inertial Navigation Systems with Unknown Time Delay

Many Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position as the primary measurement to drive filter performance and bound error growth. However, commercial-grade GNSS receivers introduce unknown measurement delays ranging from 50 ms to 300 ms depending on sensor quality and operating mode. Such time delays can significantly degrade INS performance unless they are explicitly compensated for. Existing algorithms commonly estimate this delay offline, run the filter concurrently with GNSS measurements using buffered Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data, and predict the current state by forward-integrating buffered inertial measurements via IMU preintegration. The state-of-the-art online method is an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) that explicitly models the time delay as a state parameter, which defines the preintegration duration. This paper introduces a novel geometric framework for modeling time-delayed INS, in which Galilean symmetry is leveraged to provide a joint representation of space and time for consistent state estimation. An Equivariant Filter (EqF) is derived for the coupled estimation of navigation states and time delay. Validation is performed on two fixed-wing Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAV) with GNSS time lags of 90 ms and 120 ms. The test flights last two to three minutes. Simulations further investigate delays up to 500 ms and provide a statistical comparison against the state-of-the-art EKF. Results show that the EqF preserves accuracy and consistency, while the EKF lacks consistency and its performance degrades significantly with increasing measurement delays.
Giulio Delama, Martin Scheiber, Yixiao Ge +3
May 12, 2026cs.AI

Why Conclusions Diverge from the Same Observations: Formalizing World-Model Non-Identifiability via an Inference

When people share the same documents and observations yet reach different conclusions, the disagreement often shifts into a judgment that the other party is cognitively defective, irrational, or acting in bad faith. This paper argues that such divergence is better described as a form of non-identifiability inherent in inference and learning, rather than as a defect of the other party. We organize the phenomenon into two levels: (i) θθ-level non-identifiability, where conclusions diverge under the same world model WW because inference settings differ; and (ii) WW-level non-identifiability, where repeated use of an inference setting θθ biases data exposure and update rules, causing the learned world model WW itself to diverge. We introduce an inference profile θ=(R,E,S,D)θ= (R, E, S, D), consisting of Reference, Exploration, Stabilization, and Horizon, and show how outputs can split even for the same observation oo and the same WW. We further explain why disagreements tend to project onto a small number of bases -- abstract versus concrete, externalizability, and order versus freedom -- as a consequence of general constraints on learning systems: computational, observational, and coordination constraints. Finally, we relate the framework to deep representation learning, including representation hierarchy, latent-state estimation, and regularization-exploration trade-offs, and illustrate the framework through a case study on AI regulation debates.
Toru Takahashi
May 12, 2026cs.RO

A Proprioceptive-Only Benchmark for Quadruped State Estimation: ATE, RPE, and Runtime Trade-offs Between Filters and Smoothers

We compare three state-of-the-art proprioceptive state estimators for quadruped robots: MUSE [1], the Invariant Extended Kalman Filter (IEKF) [2], and the Invariant Smoother (IS) [3], on the CYN-1 sequence of the GrandTour Dataset [4]. Our goal is to give practitioners clear guidance on accuracy and computation time: we report long-term accuracy (Absolute Trajectory Error, ATE), short-term accuracy (translational and rotational Relative Pose Error, RPE), and per-update computation time on a fixed hardware/software stack. On this dataset, RPEs are broadly similar across methods, while IEKF and IS achieve a lower ATE than MUSE. Runtime results highlight the accuracy-latency trade-offs across the three approaches. In the discussion, we outline the evaluation choices used to ensure a fair comparison and analyze factors that influence short-horizon metrics. Overall, this study provides a concise snapshot of accuracy and cost, helping readers choose an estimator that fits their application constraints, with all evaluation code and documentation released open-source at https://github.com/iit-DLSLab/state_estimation_benchmark for full reproducibility.
Ylenia Nisticò, João Carlos Virgolino Soares, Joan Solà +1
May 10, 2026cs.AI

WindINR: Latent-State INR for Fast Local Wind Query and Correction in Complex Terrain

Many downstream decisions in complex terrain require fast wind estimates at a small number of user-specified locations and heights for a given forecast valid time, rather than another dense forecast field on a fixed grid. We present WindINR, a latent-state implicit neural representation framework for continuous high-resolution local wind query and sparse-observation correction. WindINR maps static terrain descriptors, a low-resolution background field, and continuous query coordinates to a high-resolution wind state through a latent-conditioned decoder. To enable rapid inference-time correction, WindINR separates reusable representation learning from sample-specific latent-state correction. During training, a privileged encoder infers a reference latent state from high-resolution supervision, a deployable latent predictor estimates an initial latent state from inference-time inputs alone, and their discrepancies are summarized into a dataset-adaptive Gaussian prior over latent corrections. At inference time, within the WindINR module, network weights remain fixed and only the latent state is updated by minimizing a regularized correction objective using sparse observations and their uncertainty. In controlled OSSEs over the Senja region, including a UAV-aided approach scenario and random-observation robustness tests, WindINR improves local high-resolution wind estimates by updating only a compact latent state rather than the full network. The corrected representation remains continuously queryable at arbitrary coordinates and, in our CPU benchmark, yields about a 2.6×2.6\times online-correction speedup over full-network fine-tuning, suggesting a practical interface between kilometer-scale background products, sparse local observations, and wind queries in complex terrain.
Yi Xiao, Qilong Jia, Hang Fan +4
May 10, 2026cs.LG

The Transformer as a Polar State Estimator

We show that the core components of the Transformer---attention, residual connections, and normalization---arise naturally from a single geometric state estimation problem. Modeling the latent state in polar coordinates naturally separates radial and hyperspherical dynamics, yielding a precision-weighted filtering procedure in which normalization enforces the hyperspherical constraint, attention aggregates directional evidence, and the residual connection implements an incremental state update. The standard Transformer block with rotary positional encodings is recovered by discarding the geometric correction terms of the resulting state estimator, showing that its architecture follows from the underlying estimation problem rather than from independent design choices. The proposed \textit{Polar Transformer} retains these geometric corrections.
Peter Racioppo
May 10, 2026cs.RO

Safety-Critical LiDAR-Inertial Odometry with On-Manifold Deterministic Protection Level

In safety-critical scenarios, the protection level of the autonomous navigation system is crucial for enabling mobile robots to perform safe tasks. However, existing studies on probabilistic navigation systems for robots usually perform offline accuracy evaluations using limited datasets and assume that the results can be applied to unknown real-world environments. As a result, current autonomous mobile robots often lack protection levels for online safety assessment. To fill this gap, we propose a safety-critical LiDAR-inertial odometry (LIO) that provides deterministic protection levels based on on-manifold deterministic state estimation. By adopting the unknown but bounded assumption, we derive a neat closed-form relationship between point cloud noise and the uncertainty of the estimation from the iterated closest point algorithm. Using this relationship, we design an on-manifold ellipsoidal set-membership filter and implement it within the LIO system. Leveraging the properties of the set-membership filter, our system offers the feasible sets of the estimated locations as the deterministic protection levels, serving as safety references for the robots' downstream autonomous operations. The experimental results show that our system can provide effective deterministic online safety references for diverse robots in various environments.
Yueqi Zhu, Yan Pan, Chufan Rui +3
May 9, 2026cs.RO

Smoothing Out the Edges: Continuous-Time Estimation with Gaussian Process Motion Priors on Factor Graphs

Continuous-time state estimation is gaining in popularity due to its abilities to provide smooth solutions, handle asynchronous sensors, and interpolate between data points. While there are two main paradigms, parametric (e.g., temporal basis functions, splines) and nonparametric (Gaussian processes), the latter has seen less adoption despite its technical advantages and relative ease of implementation. In this article, we seek to rectify this situation by providing a new simplified explanation of GP continuous-time estimation rooted in the language of factor graphs, which have become the de facto estimation paradigm in much of robotics. To simplify onboarding, we also provide three working examples implemented in the popular GTSAM estimation framework.
Connor Holmes, Sven Lilge, Zi Cong Guo +2
May 8, 2026cs.LG

Observation-Aligned Two-Stage Domain Decomposition for Physics-Informed Traffic State Estimation with Sparse Fixed Sensors

Traffic state estimation from sparse fixed sensors is challenging because physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) tend to over-smooth sharp transitions admitted by the Lighthill-Whitham--Richards (LWR) model. This study proposes Two-Stage Domain Decomposition Physics-Informed Neural Networks (TSDD-PINN), an observation-aligned framework for LWR-based offline speed-field reconstruction. The framework supports spatial, temporal, and space--time refinement. Matched direction analysis shows that spatial refinement has the lowest mean error and less than half the training time of space--time refinement in the tested setting, while temporal refinement is faster. A global parent PINN is first trained. In the controlled spatial implementation, its residual profile guides a deterministic partition for warm-started child networks. An optional operational safeguard retains Stage~1 when the prespecified screen does not activate. The primary I-24 MOTION evaluation spans five days, five sensor configurations, and ten seeds per configuration, yielding 1{,}500 runs. Controlled TSDD-PINN attains the lowest relative L2L_2 error in 18 of 25 configurations and 14 of 15 sparse-sensing cases, while training 2.4 times faster than the extended PINN (XPINN) baseline under the evaluated implementations and training budgets. Non-neural comparisons show that the advantage over interpolation is concentrated under sparse sensing, whereas dense sensing often favors interpolation. A separate 250-run operational evaluation finds infrequent activation and motivates the Stage-1-preserving safeguard. The residual is treated as an indicator of model difficulty rather than a validated shock detector. The evidence supports a sensing-density-dependent operating range rather than uniform improvement.
Eunhan Ka, Ludovic Leclercq, Satish V. Ukkusuri
May 8, 2026cs.LG

Rethinking State Tracking in Recurrent Models Through Error Control Dynamics

The theory of state tracking in recurrent architectures has predominantly focused on expressive capacity: whether a fixed architecture can theoretically realize a set of symbolic transition rules. We argue that equally important is error control, the dynamics governing hidden-state drift along the directions that distinguish symbolic states. We prove that affine recurrent networks, a class of models encompassing State-Space Models and Linear Attention, cannot correct errors along state-separating subspaces once they preserve state representations. Consequently, practical affine trackers do not learn robust state tracking; rather, they learn finite horizon solutions governed by accumulated state-relevant error. We characterize the mechanics of this failure, showing that tracking remains readable only while the accumulating within-class spread remains small relative to the initial between-class separation. We demonstrate empirically on group state-tracking tasks that this breakdown is predictable: tracking collapses when the distinguishability ratio crosses the readability threshold of the trained decoder. Across trained models, the point of this crossing predicts the horizon at which downstream accuracy fails. These results establish that robust state tracking is determined not only by an architecture's theoretical expressivity but crucially by its error control.
Jiwan Chung, Heechan Choi, Seon Joo Kim
May 5, 2026cs.RO

Sensorless State Estimation and Control for Agile Cable-Suspended Payload Transport by Quadrotors

This work proposes a novel control and estimation approach for aerial manipulation of a cable-suspended load using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Common approaches in the state of the art have practical limitations, relying on direct load measurements and Lagrangian methods for dynamic modeling. The lack of a straightforward dynamic model of the system led us to propose adopting the Udwadia-Kalaba method to explicitly incorporate the cable's geometric constraints. This formulation allowed for the consistent derivation of the tension force and its direct integration into the NMPC prediction model. Additionally, we propose a sensorless load state estimation based on the same geometric constraints. Results from real-robot experiments demonstrated that the explicit inclusion of load dynamics in the optimization problem significantly reduces trajectory-tracking errors and yields better overall performance compared to strategies based on incomplete models.
Ana Maria Nascimento, Augusto Sales, Antonio Marcus Lima +1
Apr 29, 2026cs.LG

PiGGO: Physics-Guided Learnable Graph Kalman Filters for Virtual Sensing of Nonlinear Dynamic Structures under Uncertainty

Digital twins provide a powerful paradigm for diagnostic and prognostic tasks in the monitoring and control of engineered systems; however, their deployment for complex structures remains challenged by model-form uncertainty, arising from unknown nonlinear dynamics, and by sparse sensing. These limitations hinder reliable online state estimation using either purely physics-based or purely data-driven approaches. This work introduces the Physics-Guided Graph Neural ODE (PiGGO) framework, a physics-informed, graph-based Bayesian state estimation approach in which a learned graph neural ordinary differential equation (GNODE) serves as the continuous-time state-transition model within an extended Kalman filter. The graph representation explicitly defines the system state-space, while physics-guided inductive biases encode known structural relationships and constrain the learning of nonlinear dynamics. By integrating graph-native learned dynamics with recursive Bayesian filtering, the proposed PiGGO framework enables online virtual sensing and uncertainty-aware state estimation for nonlinear systems with unknown model form, while maintaining generalisation across topologically similar structures. Numerical case studies demonstrate improved robustness to model uncertainty and measurement noise, outperforming both open-loop graph neural models and conventional filtering approaches in online prediction tasks.
Marcus Haywood-Alexander, Gregory Duthé, Eleni Chatzi
Apr 23, 2026cs.RO

SLAM as a Stochastic Control Problem with Partial Information: Optimal Solutions and Rigorous Approximations

Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is a foundational state estimation problem in robotics in which a robot accurately constructs a map of its environment while also localizing itself within this construction. We study the active SLAM problem through the lens of optimal stochastic control, thereby recasting it as a decision-making problem under partial information. After reviewing several commonly studied models, we present a general stochastic control formulation of active SLAM together with a rigorous treatment of motion, sensing, and map representation. We introduce a new exploration stage cost that encodes the geometry of the state when evaluating information-gathering actions. This formulation, constructed as a nonstandard partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), is then analyzed to derive rigorously justified approximate solutions that are near-optimal. To enable this analysis, the associated regularity conditions are studied under general assumptions that apply to a wide range of robotics applications. For a particular case, we conduct an extensive numerical study in which standard learning algorithms are used to learn near-optimal policies.
Ilir Gusija, Fady Alajaji, Serdar Yüksel
Apr 20, 2026cs.RO

Relative State Estimation using Event-Based Propeller Sensing

Autonomous swarms of multi-Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) system requires an accurate and fast relative state estimation. Although monocular frame-based camera methods perform well in ideal conditions, they are slow, suffer scale ambiguity, and often struggle in visually challenging conditions. The advent of event cameras addresses these challenging tasks by providing low latency, high dynamic range, and microsecond-level temporal resolution. This paper proposes a framework for relative state estimation for quadrotors using event-based propeller sensing. The propellers in the event stream are tracked by detection to extract the region-of-interests. The event streams in these regions are processed in temporal chunks to estimate per-propeller frequencies. These frequency measurements drive a kinematic state estimation module as a thrust input, while camera-derived position measurements provide the update step. Additionally, we use geometric primitives derived from event streams to estimate the orientation of the quadrotor by fitting an ellipse over a propeller and backprojecting it to recover body-frame tilt-axis. The existing event-based approaches for quadrotor state estimation use the propeller frequency in simulated flight sequences. Our approach estimates the propeller frequency under 3% error on a test dataset of five real-world outdoor flight sequences, providing a method for decentralized relative localization for multi-robot systems using event camera.
Ravi Kumar Thakur, Luis Granados Segura, Jan Klivan +4
Apr 18, 2026cs.RO

Greedy Kalman-Swarm: Improving State Estimation in Robot Swarms in Harsh Environments

State estimation is a fundamental requirement in robotics, where the accurate determination of a robot's state is essential for stable operation despite inherent process disturbances and sensor noise. Traditionally, this is achieved through Kalman filtering, providing a statistically optimal estimate by balancing predictive models with noisy measurements. In the context of robotic swarms, the challenge shifts from individual accuracy to collective coordination, where the integration of global dynamics can significantly enhance the precision of the entire group. Existing estimation techniques rely on centralized processing or heavy communication protocols to reach a global consensus, which are frequently impractical in real-world deployments. Here we show that a localized, "greedy" approach to distributed state estimation (termed "Greedy Kalman-Swarm") allows individual robots to leverage relative inter-robot sensing for improved accuracy without requiring full data availability or global communication. Simulations in communication-constrained environments show robots can effectively integrate all currently available neighbor data at each iteration to refine their internal states, yet remain robust and functional even when data is missing. This results in a performance profile that strikes a balance between the low overhead of independent estimation and the high accuracy of centralized systems, specifically under harsh or dynamic environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate that global state awareness can be emergent rather than enforced, providing a scalable framework for maintaining swarm cohesion in unpredictable terrains. We anticipate that this decentralized methodology will serve as a foundation for more resilient autonomous systems, particularly in search-and-rescue or space exploration missions where reliable, high-bandwidth communication cannot be guaranteed.
Phunyapa Suksomboon, Paulo Garcia
Apr 17, 2026cs.RO

Factor Graph-Based Shape Estimation for Continuum Robots via Magnus Expansion

Reconstructing the shape of continuum manipulators from sparse, noisy sensor data is a challenging task, owing to the infinite-dimensional nature of such systems. Existing approaches broadly trade off between parametric methods that yield compact state representations but lack probabilistic structure, and Cosserat rod inference on factor graphs, which provides principled uncertainty quantification at the cost of a state dimension that grows with the spatial discretization. This letter combines the strength of both paradigms by estimating the coefficients of a low-dimensional Geometric Variable Strain (GVS) parameterization within a factor graph framework. A novel kinematic factor, derived from the Magnus expansion of the strain field, encodes the closed-form rod geometry as a prior constraint linking the GVS strain coefficients to the backbone pose variables. The resulting formulation yields a compact state vector directly amenable to model-based control, while retaining the modularity, probabilistic treatment and computational efficiency of factor graph inference. The proposed method is evaluated in simulation on a 0.4 m long tendon-driven continuum robot under three measurement configurations, achieving mean position errors below 2 mm for all three scenarios and demonstrating a sixfold reduction in orientation error compared to a Gaussian process regression baseline when only position measurements are available.
Lorenzo Ticozzi, Patricio A. Vela, Panagiotis Tsiotras
Apr 16, 2026cs.CV

Efficient closed-form approaches for pose estimation using Sylvester forms

Solving non-linear least-squares problem for pose estimation (rotation and translation) is often a time consuming yet fundamental problem in several real-time computer vision applications. With an adequate rotation parametrization, the optimization problem can be reduced to the solution of a~system of polynomial equations and solved in closed form. Recent advances in efficient closed form solvers utilizing resultant matrices have shown a promising research direction to decrease the computation time while preserving the estimation accuracy. In this paper, we propose a new class of resultant-based solvers that exploit Sylvester forms to further reduce the complexity of the resolution. We demonstrate that our proposed methods are numerically as accurate as the state-of-the-art solvers, and outperform them in terms of computational time. We show that this approach can be applied for pose estimation in two different types of problems: estimating a pose from 3D to 3D correspondences, and estimating a pose from 3D points to 2D points correspondences.
Jana Vráblíková, Ezio Malis, Laurent Busé
Apr 16, 2026cs.RO

CT-VIR: Continuous-Time Visual-Inertial-Ranging Fusion for Indoor Localization with Sparse Anchors

Visual-inertial odometry (VIO) is widely used for mobile robot localization, but its long-term accuracy degrades without global constraints. Incorporating ranging sensors such as ultra-wideband (UWB) can mitigate drift; however, high-accuracy ranging usually requires well-deployed anchors, which is difficult to ensure in narrow or low-power environments. Moreover, most existing visual-inertial-ranging (VIR) fusion methods rely on discrete time-based filtering or optimization, making it difficult to balance positioning accuracy, trajectory consistency, and fusion efficiency under asynchronous multi-sensor sampling. To address these issues, we propose a spline-based continuous-time state estimation method for VIR fusion localization. In the preprocessing stage, VIO motion priors and UWB ranging measurements are used to construct virtual anchors and reject outliers, thereby alleviating geometric degeneration and improving range reliability. In the estimation stage, the pose trajectory is parameterized in continuous time using a B-spline, while inertial, visual, and ranging constraints are formulated as factors in a sliding-window graph. The spline control points, together with a small set of auxiliary parameters, are then jointly optimized to obtain a continuous-time trajectory estimate. Evaluations on public datasets and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and practical potential of the proposed approach.
Yu-An Liu, Li Zhang
Apr 3, 2026cs.LG

Learning Without Adversarial Training: A Physics-Informed Neural Network for Secure Power System State Estimation under False Data Injection Attacks

Power System State Estimation (PSSE) converts geographically distributed measurements into the voltage magnitudes and phase angles needed for grid monitoring and control. Learned estimators can perform this mapping rapidly, but model-aware False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs) may corrupt their inputs while retaining AC plausibility and residual-based stealth. Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) limit candidate states through power-flow consistency; however, their robustness depends on balancing supervised and physics losses whose scales and gradient contributions evolve during training. This paper proposes a PINN that jointly learns homoscedastic uncertainty parameters and uses them to adapt the two objectives. The formulation assigns trainable log-uncertainties to the active-power, reactive-power, voltage, and angle losses while safeguarding against an underweighted physics objective. The estimator is trained only on clean steady-state data and is evaluated, without adversarial retraining, under baseline state-distortion and stricter residual-profile-matching regimes on the IEEE~118-bus system. Accuracy is measured against the uncompromised system state. Relative to a fixed-weight PINN, dynamic weighting reduces overall Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 55%55\% while also improving voltage- and angle-estimation accuracy. The results show that learning the physics/data balance from clean data improves robustness to unseen FDIAs.
Solon Falas, Markos Asprou, Charalambos Konstantinou +1
Mar 19, 2026math.OC

Fundamental Limits for Sensor-Based Control via the Gibbs Variational Principle

Fundamental limits on the performance of feedback controllers are essential for benchmarking algorithms, guiding sensor selection, and certifying task feasibility -- yet few general-purpose tools exist for computing them. Existing information-theoretic approaches overestimate the information a sensor must provide by evaluating it against the uncontrolled system, producing bounds that degrade precisely when feedback is most valuable. We derive a lower bound on the minimum expected cost of any causal feedback controller under partial observations by applying the Gibbs variational principle to the joint path measure over states and observations. The bound applies to nonlinear, nonholonomic, and hybrid dynamics with unbounded costs and admits a self-consistent refinement: any good controller concentrates the state, which limits the information the sensor can extract, which tightens the bound. The resulting fixed-point equation has a unique solution computable by bisection, and we provide conditions under which the free energy minimization is provably convex, yielding a certifiably correct numerical bound. On a scalar LQG problem the self-consistent bound captures over 80% of the known optimal cost at moderate sensor noise, and on a nonlinear Dubins car tracking problem it remains informative across all noise levels where a bound using the uncontrolled state distribution is vacuous.
Vincent Pacelli, Evangelos A. Theodorou
Mar 10, 2026cs.RO

NanoBench: A Multi-Task Benchmark Dataset for Nano-Quadrotor System Identification, Control, and State Estimation

Existing aerial-robotics benchmarks target vehicles from hundreds of grams to several kilograms and typically expose only high-level state data. They omit the actuator-level signals required to study nano-scale quadrotors, where low-Reynoldsnumber aerodynamics, coreless DC motor nonlinearities, and severe computational constraints invalidate models and controllers developed for larger vehicles. We introduce NanoBench, an open-source multi-task benchmark collected on the commercially available Crazyflie 2.1 nano-quadrotor (takeoff weight 27 g) in a Vicon motion capture arena. The dataset comprises 172 flight recordings spanning multi-frequency excitation, geometric trajectory tracking at three speed regimes, and long-duration battery-drain hover. Each recording provides synchronized Vicon ground truth, raw IMU data, onboard extended Kalman filter (EKF) estimates, PID controller internals, and motor PWM commands at 100 Hz, alongside battery telemetry at 10 Hz, crossaligned by gyroscope-based correlation on a 1 ms search grid. NanoBench defines standardized evaluation protocols, train/test splits, and open-source baselines for three tasks: nonlinear system identification, closed-loop controller benchmarking, and onboard state estimation assessment. To our knowledge, it is the first public dataset to jointly provide actuator commands, controller internals, and estimator outputs with millimeter-accurate ground truth on a commercially available nano-scale aerial platform.
Syed Izzat Ullah, Jose Baca
Feb 20, 2026cs.RO

GrandTour: A Legged Robotics Dataset in the Wild for Multi-Modal Perception and State Estimation

Accurate state estimation and multi-modal perception are prerequisites for autonomous legged robots in complex, large-scale environments. To date, no large-scale public legged-robot dataset captures the real-world conditions needed to develop and benchmark algorithms for legged-robot state estimation, perception, and navigation. To address this, we introduce the GrandTour dataset, a multi-modal legged-robotics dataset collected across challenging outdoor and indoor environments, featuring an ANYbotics ANYmal-D quadruped equipped with the Boxi multi-modal sensor payload. GrandTour spans a broad range of environments and operational scenarios across distinct test sites, ranging from alpine scenery and forests to demolished buildings and urban areas, and covers a wide variation in scale, complexity, illumination, and weather conditions. The dataset provides time-synchronized sensor data from spinning LiDARs, multiple RGB cameras with complementary characteristics, proprioceptive sensors, and stereo depth cameras. Moreover, it includes high-precision ground-truth trajectories from satellite-based RTK-GNSS and a Leica Geosystems total station. This dataset supports research in SLAM, high-precision state estimation, and multi-modal learning, enabling rigorous evaluation and development of new approaches to sensor fusion in legged robotic systems. With its extensive scope, GrandTour represents the largest open-access legged-robotics dataset to date. The dataset is available at https://grand-tour.leggedrobotics.com on HuggingFace (ROS-independent), and in ROS formats, along with tools and demo resources.
Turcan Tuna, Jonas Frey, Frank Fu +5
Nov 19, 2025cs.LG

Recursive Entropic Variational Inference for Nonlinear State-Space Models

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates subject to dynamic consistency constraints. This framework gives rise to a family of forward-backward algorithms whose structure is determined by the chosen factorization of the variational posterior. By focusing on Gauss--Markov approximations, we derive recursive schemes with favorable computational complexity. For general nonlinear, non-Gaussian models, we close the recursions using generalized statistical linear regression and Fourier--Hermite moment matching.
Hany Abdulsamad, Ángel F. García-Fernández, Simo Särkkä
Sep 4, 2025cs.LG

Robust Filter Attention: Self-Attention as Precision-Weighted State Estimation

We introduce Robust Filter Attention (RFA), a formulation of self-attention as a robust state estimator. Each token is treated as a noisy observation of a latent trajectory governed by a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE), and attention weights are determined by consistency under this model rather than static feature similarity. Under isotropic noise and decay assumptions, RFA matches the computational complexity of standard attention. On language modeling benchmarks, RFA achieves lower perplexity than RoPE within the training window while remaining stable under zero-shot extrapolation to longer contexts. The framework also provides a dynamical interpretation of standard positional mechanisms, connecting rotational embeddings and recency biases to transport and uncertainty propagation induced by stochastic dynamics.
Peter Racioppo
May 12, 2025cs.CV

Towards Accurate State Estimation: Motion Dynamics Kalman Filter for 3D Multi-Object Tracking

Precise 3D state estimation in multi-object tracking (MOT) is critical for self-driving cars, particularly for objects occluded. Motion modeling in the Kalman filter with a constant motion assumption is widely used in MOT methods, but it neglects the continuous changes in objects' motion caused by traffic in urban environments. Although recent research introduces a multimodel Kalman filter that incorporates multiple motion models, these approaches incur significant computational overhead from the simultaneous processing of multiple models. To this end, this work introduces a motion-dynamics Kalman filter (MD-KF) that overcomes the constant-motion assumption while preserving the singularity of the motion model. MD-KF models the changes in objects' motion over successive measurements as Gaussian distributions, and adaptively adjusts a weighted motion model to account for these variations. MD-KF consistently outperforms constant and multimodel KF across multiple datasets with a significant reduction in computation latency compared to multimodel approaches. The proposed approach demonstrates its superiority in trajectory estimation during occlusion and state estimation stability for stationary objects.
Mohamed Nagy, Naoufel Werghi, Bilal Hassan +2
Mar 27, 2013cs.AI

Estimating Uncertain Spatial Relationships in Robotics

In this paper, we describe a representation for spatial information, called the stochastic map, and associated procedures for building it, reading information from it, and revising it incrementally as new information is obtained. The map contains the estimates of relationships among objects in the map, and their uncertainties, given all the available information. The procedures provide a general solution to the problem of estimating uncertain relative spatial relationships. The estimates are probabilistic in nature, an advance over the previous, very conservative, worst-case approaches to the problem. Finally, the procedures are developed in the context of state-estimation and filtering theory, which provides a solid basis for numerous extensions.
Randall Smith, Matthew Self, Peter Cheeseman