Uncertainty Quantification

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44 papers in the last four weeks, up 110% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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  1. Interval and fuzzy physics-augmented neural networks (iPANN and fPANN) for uncertainty quantification and propagation in constitutive modeling

    Jul 22, 2026Somesh Pratap Singh, Govinda Anantha Padmanabha, Jingye Tan +4Uncertainty QuantificationHyperelasticity

    Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, 14853, NY, USA · Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland · Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, 90007, CA, USA +2

  2. Factor-Informed Uncertainty Distillation for Gaze Estimation

    Jul 22, 2026Mohammadreza Jamalifard, Yaxiong Lei, Javier Fumanal Idocin +3Gaze EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    University of Essex · Colchester, UK

  3. Good Practice Guide for quantifying uncertainties for machine learning models applied to photoplethysmography signals

    Jul 22, 2026P. Harris, C. Bench, M. Rinkevičius +6Uncertainty QuantificationPhotoplethysmography

    PTB Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt · NPL National Physical Laboratory · CMI Cesky Metrologicky Institut +5

  4. SIINR: Structurally Informed Implicit Neural Representations for super-resolution with uncertainty quantification of clinical quality diffusion MRI datasets

    Jul 22, 2026Tom Hendriks, William Consagra, Anna Vilanova +2Implicit Neural RepresentationsUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Eindhoven University of Technology, Groene Loper 5, Eindhoven, 5612 AP, Noord-Brabant, The Netherlands. · Department of Statistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, 29225, South Carolina, United States of America. · Psychiatry Neuroimaging Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 399 Revolution Drive, Boston, 02215, MA, United States.

  5. Probabilistic Physics-Aware Machine Learning Predictions of Electric Truck Energy Consumption with Field Data

    Jul 21, 2026Hannes Nilsson, Rafael Basso, Balázs Kulcsár +1Uncertainty QuantificationProbabilistic Forecasting

    Volvo Technology AB Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Electric Engineering Chalmers University of Technology Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Computer Science and Engineering Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg Gothenburg, Sweden

  6. Variational meta-learning inference for low dimensional neural system identification

    Jul 21, 2026Matteo Rufolo, Dario Piga, Marco ForgioneUncertainty QuantificationMeta-Learning

    SUPSI-DTI-IDSIA, Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Lugano, Switzerland.

  7. Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities

    Jul 20, 2026Matthew F. DixonUncertainty QuantificationConfidence Estimation in Language Models

    Artificial Intelligence Finance Institute (AIFI), 69 Charlton St, New York, NY 10014, USA

  8. Vision-Language-Motion Maps: An Open-Vocabulary, Uncertainty-Aware, Queryable Motion Attribute for 3D Scene Maps

    Jul 17, 2026Dibyendu Ghosh, Ayushi ShakyaUncertainty Quantification3D Scene Representation

    Rekise Marine, Bangalore, India

  9. Disentangling Model and Human Data Uncertainty in Apparent Facial Age Estimation

    Jul 17, 2026Andrei Foitos, Ivo Pascal de Jong, Matias Valdenegro-ToroBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Bernoulli Institute, University of Groningen, Groningen, NL

  10. Subjective Risk Decomposition: A New View for Uncertainty Quantification

    Jul 16, 2026Raghad Alamri, Michele Caprio, Gavin BrownUncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester · Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick

  11. Full-data accuracy with fewer labels for training and fine-tuning machine-learning force fields

    Jul 16, 2026Sheng Bi, Yi-Ze Wang, Jun ChengUncertainty QuantificationMachine Learning Interatomic Potentials

    College of Materials, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China. · Laboratory of AI for Electrochemistry (AI4EC), IKKEM, Xiamen, China. · State Key Laboratory of Physical Chemistry of Solid Surfaces, iChEM, College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.

  12. Decision Making Needs Uncertainty Quantification [Lecture Notes]

    Jul 15, 2026Osvaldo SimeoneUncertainty QuantificationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems, Northeastern University London, One Portsoken Street, London, E1 8PH, UK

  13. PlumeQuant: Uncertainty-aware consistency assessment of methane plume masks and emission-rate estimates

    Jul 15, 2026Parisa Masnadi Khiabani, Wolfgang Jentner, Alireza Rangrazjeddi +4Uncertainty QuantificationRemote Sensing

    Data Institute for Societal Challenges, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA · Data Science & Analytics Institute, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA · School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA +4

  14. Posterior Variance Is a Constraint Map, Not an Error Map: Closed-Form Uncertainty for Radiative Gaussian Splatting in Sparse-View CT

    Jul 15, 2026Chulin Zhao, Yiran Xu, Shu Liu3D Gaussian SplattingUncertainty Quantification

    1Dundee International Institute, Central South University · 2Central South University

  15. Code-MUE: Measuring Code LLMs' Uncertainty through Execution-based Semantic Interaction Graphs

    Jul 14, 2026Xiaoning Ren, Yinxing Xue, Lei Ma +1Uncertainty QuantificationLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    Xi’an Jiaotong University, China · Institute of AI for Industries, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China · The University of Tokyo, Japan +1

  16. Uncertainty Quantification for EO Regression Tasks: Building Height, Tree Canopy Height and Above-ground Biomass Estimation

    Jul 13, 2026Ritu Yadav, Andrea Nascetti, Yifang BanUncertainty QuantificationRemote Sensing

    Ritu Yadav, Andrea Nascetti and Yifang Ban is with Division of Geoinformatics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.

  17. When is the combined load identifiable from a stress-intensity profile? A coupled forward-inverse study on SIFBench finite-element data

    Jul 12, 2026Giansalvo Cirrincione, Filippo GrassiaParameter IdentifiabilityUncertainty Quantification

    Laboratory of Innovative Technologies (LTI, EA 3899), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, 80025, France

  18. Hierarchical Bayesian Quadrature

    Jul 12, 2026Tim Weiland, Toni Karvonen, Philipp HennigUncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inference

    Tübingen AI Center, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · School of Engineering Sciences, Lappeenranta–Lahti University of Technology LUT, Lappeenranta, Finland

  19. BattVAE-GP: Generative Modeling of Long-Horizon Battery Degradation with Uncertainty Quantification

    Jul 11, 2026Raghvender Raghvender, Mahdi Abid, Ferran Brosa Planella +2Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Laboratoire de Réactivité et de Chimie des Solides (LRCS), UMR CNRS 7314-Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 15 Rue Baudelocque, 80000, Amiens, France · Réseau sur le Stockage Electrochimique de l’Energie (RS2E), CNRS FR 3459, Hub de l’Energie, 15 Rue Baudelocque, 80000, Amiens, France · Predeeption (INRIA Startup Studio / CNRS Innovation), Hub de l’energie, 80000, Amiens, France +2

  20. Error Aware Distribution Prediction for Lightweight Implicit Neural Representations

    Jul 11, 2026Zhimin Li, Jake D. Balla, Joshua A. LevineImplicit Neural RepresentationsUncertainty Quantification

    Vanderbilt University · University of Arizona

  21. Calibrated Hybrid CNN-Transformer for Retinal OCT Classification

    Jul 9, 2026Animesh KumarUncertainty QuantificationOptical Coherence Tomography

    School of Computing, Newcastle University, UK

  22. Hypergraph Neural Stochastic Diffusion: An SDE Framework for Uncertainty Estimation

    Jul 8, 2026Zhiheng Zhou, Mengyao Zhou, Dengyi Zhao +2Stochastic Differential EquationsUncertainty Quantification

  23. Efficient Bayesian Deep Ensembles via Analytic Predictive Inference

    Jul 7, 2026Sina Aghaee Dabaghan Fard, Marie Maros, Jaesung LeeUncertainty QuantificationInterpretable ML

    Wm Michael Barnes ’64 Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Texas A&M University College Station, TX, USA

  24. tsbootstrap: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Conformal Prediction for Time Series

    Jul 7, 2026Sankalp GildaUncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    DeepThought Solutions

  25. Rendering-Aware Bayesian 3D Gaussian Splatting with Native Uncertainty and Adaptive Complexity Control

    Jul 6, 2026Gaoxiang Jia, Vikram Appia, Junzhou Huang +13D Gaussian SplattingActive Perception

    Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. · Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering University of Texas at Arlington · Dept. of Mathematics & Division of Data Science University of Texas at Arlington

  26. Uncertainty-aware damage identification in short-span bridges via physics-informed variational autoencoder

    Jul 6, 2026Ana Fernandez-Navamuel, A. Javier Omella, Diego Zamora-Sanchez +1Variational AutoencodersUncertainty Quantification

    Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Spain. · Departamento de Matematica Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza/IUMA, Zaragoza, Spain. · TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Parque Cientifico y Tecnologico de Bizkaia, Astondo bidea, Edificio 700, Derio, E-48160, Spain. +1

  27. STAPO: Selective Trajectory-Aware Policy Optimization for LLM Agent Training

    Jul 6, 2026Qiuyi Qi, Tian Liang, Mutian Bao +8Uncertainty QuantificationSparse-Reward RL

    Zhejiang University · Ant Group · City University of Hong Kong

  28. Towards Robust Uncertainty-Aware Speaker Modeling

    Jul 6, 2026Junjie Li, Yang Xiao, Kong Aik LeeSpeaker VerificationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR · The University of Melbourne, Australia

  29. Physics-Informed Graph Learning with Uncertainty Awareness for Open-Set Domain Generalization in Fault Diagnosis

    Jul 5, 2026Jinfeng Zhu, Shiyu Long, Ye YuanUncertainty QuantificationDomain Generalization

    College of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Tiansheng Road, Chongqing, 400715, China

  30. Significance-First Splitting: Aligning Treatment Heterogeneity Detection with Honest Estimation

    Jul 4, 2026Pantelis Z. Hadjipantelis, Weng Man Chiang, Karthik NageshCausal Effect EstimationConfidence Region Estimation

    TripAdvisor, UK

  31. Joint distribution of upstream runoff governs downstream river-discharge prediction uncertainty in distributed ML models

    Jul 3, 2026Karan Ruparell, Tristan Hascoet, Takemasa Miyoshi +4Uncertainty QuantificationTime Series Forecasting

    University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK · European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK · RIKEN Center for Computational Sciences, Kobe, Japan +3

  32. A Bayesian Framework for Evaluating Scenario Compatibility in Generative Population Synthesis

    Jul 3, 2026Zhenlin Qin, Leizhen Wang, Yancheng Ling +1Uncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inference

    Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden. · Department of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. · Digital Futures, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.

  33. Robustness Meets Uncertainty: Evidential Adversarial Training for Robust Selective Classification

    Jul 3, 2026Nicolas Sournac, Ahmed Baha Ben Jmaa, Bertrand BraeckeveldtAdversarial TrainingEvidential Deep Learning

    Multitel Research & Innovation Center, Artificial Intelligence Department, Belgium · TRAIL – Trusted AI Labs, Belgium

  34. Trading Confidence: Comprehensive Uncertainty Estimation in Algorithmic Trading

    Jul 3, 2026Lin Li, Li Rong Wang, Hsuan Fu +1Reinforcement LearningUncertainty Quantification

    Nanyang Technological University 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Nanyang Technological University Centre for Frontier AI Research, A*STAR 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Laval University Quebec, Canada

  35. Self-Auditing Residual Drifting for Pathology-Preserving Accelerated Knee MRI

    Jul 2, 2026Qing Lyu, Jianxu Wang, Mohammad Kawas +2Uncertainty QuantificationImage Reconstruction

    Department of Radiology & Biomedical Imaging, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510 USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180 USA

  36. Bayesian Uncertainty Propagation for Agentic RAG Pipelines: A Proof-of-Concept Study on Multi-Hop Question Answering

    Jul 1, 2026Louis Donaldson, Connor Walker, Koorosh Aslansefat +1Uncertainty QuantificationAgentic RAG

    University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK

  37. Uncertainty-aware tree height change regression

    Jul 1, 2026Max Gaber, Dimitri Gominski, Jaime C. Revenga +3Uncertainty QuantificationGeospatial Foundation Models

    Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen · Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen · Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, University of Rostock +1

  38. CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation

    Jun 30, 2026Sanghyuk Chun, William Yang, Amaya Dharmasiri +1Uncertainty QuantificationMultimodal Large Language Models

    Princeton University

  39. Von Mises Based Uncertainty Quantification for Closely Spaced Automotive Radar Targets

    Jun 30, 2026Vinay Kulkarni, V. V. ReddyEvidential Deep LearningUncertainty Quantification

    International Institute of Information Technology, Bengaluru, India

  40. Visual Semantic Entropy: Do Vision Language Models Recognize Visual Ambiguity?

    Jun 30, 2026Ta Duc Huy, Trang Nguyen, Townim Chowdhury +5VLM EvaluationVisual Question Answering

    Australian Institute for Machine Learning, Adelaide University, Australia · Flinders University, Australia

  41. Patch-PODiff-ViT: Structured Latent Diffusion with Patchwise POD for Super-Resolution and Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 30, 2026Onkar Jadhav, Tim French, Matthew Rayson +1Diffusion Models for Image RestorationUncertainty Quantification

    School of Earth and Oceans, UWA Oceans Institute University of Western Australia Crawley, WA, Australia · School of Physics, Mathematics and Computing, Computer Science and Software Engineering University of Western Australia Crawley, WA, Australia

  42. Sequential sparse Gaussian process quantile regression

    Jun 30, 2026Hugo Nicolas, Olivier Le MaîtreQuantile RegressionUncertainty Quantification

    PLATON, CMAP · Inria, Center for Applied Mathematics, ´Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France · CNRS, Center for Applied Mathematics, ´Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France

  43. A Transferable Learned Temporal Prior for Transmission Reconstruction and Decision-Relevant Uncertainty in Real Outbreak Labels

    Jun 29, 2026Md Ahsan KarimUncertainty QuantificationTemporal Link Prediction

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Textile Engineering and Research (NITER) Nayarhat, Savar, Dhaka-1350, Bangladesh

  44. Propagation ofInterval Belief Structures andImprecise Copulas for~Neural Network Verification

    Jun 29, 2026Francesc Pifarre-Esquerda, Eric Goubault, Sylvie PutotNeural Network VerificationUncertainty Quantification

    LIX · LIX, CNRS, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France · X-DEP-INFO

  45. Bidirectional Autoregressive Latent Diffusion for Forward and Inverse Magnetohydrodynamics

    Jun 28, 2026Alexander ScheinkerUncertainty QuantificationAutoregressive Diffusion

    Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545.

  46. Analyzing Uncertainty in the Spatial Representation of the Kinematic Bicycle Model

    Jun 28, 2026Shafayat Abrar, M. Zaeem Baig, Shahir Ul Islam Anzal +1Uncertainty QuantificationCovariance Estimation

    Dhanani School of Science and Engineering Habib University, Karachi 75290

  47. Randomized neural operator for parametric PDEs with fast training and conformal uncertainty quantification

    Jun 28, 2026Zirui Deng, Jingbo Sun, Deyu Meng +1Uncertainty QuantificationPDE Surrogate Modeling

    School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710049, China

  48. A Bayesian latent Gaussian process framework for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification

    Jun 27, 2026Geoffrey Davis, Ashwin RenganathanUncertainty QuantificationGaussian Processes

    Undergraduate research assistant, Aerospace Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 · Assistant professor, Aerospace Engineering and the Institute of Computational and Data Science (ICDS), The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802

  49. From Signals to Transfer: A Factorised Study of Probe-Based Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

    Jun 26, 2026Ponhvoan Srey, Xiaobao Wu, Cong-Duy Nguyen +3Uncertainty QuantificationHallucination in Language Models

    Nanyang Technological University · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · VinUniversity +1

  50. Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Graham Gibson, John Tipton, Kellin Rumsey +1Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

  51. Uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction in data assimilation

    Jun 25, 2026Catherine George, Alireza Javanmardi, Tijana Janjić +1Uncertainty QuantificationData Assimilation

    Mathematisches Institut für Maschinelles Lernen und Data Science, Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt · Institute of Informatics, LMU Munich, Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML)

  52. Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Annika Schneider, Tommy Rochussen, Joshua Stiller +1Uncertainty QuantificationProper Scoring Rules

    1Technical University of Munich · 2Helmholtz AI · 3MCML +3

  53. Estimating Uncertainty in Classifier Performance with Applications to Large Language Models and Nested Data

    Jun 24, 2026Kylie AnglinLLM EvaluationConfidence Region Estimation

    Department of Educational Psychology, Neag School of Education, University of Connecticut

  54. Confidence Sequences for Online Statistical Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

    Jun 24, 2026Konstantin Kueffner, Tobias Meggendorfer, Maximilian Weininger +1Markov Decision ProcessesUncertainty Quantification

    Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Klosterneuburg, Austria · Lancaster University Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany · Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany +1

  55. Uncertainty Quantification for Computer-Use Agents: A Benchmark across Vision-Language Models and GUI Grounding Datasets

    Jun 24, 2026Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik +5Computer-Use Agent BenchmarksUncertainty Quantification

    University of Illinois Chicago · Intel Labs · Capital One AI Labs

  56. Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression

    Jun 23, 2026Kun Jin, James Harrison, Jiawei Li +8Quantile RegressionUncertainty Quantification

    1Google · 2Google DeepMind

  57. UECP: Uncertainty-Enhanced Collaborative Perception

    Jun 22, 2026Kang Yang, Tianci Bu, Peng Wang +3Uncertainty QuantificationAutonomous Driving Perception

    Renmin University of China, Beijing, China · College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China · Intelligent Shipping Center, China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China

  58. The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models

    Jun 22, 2026Xiang-Jun Ou, Shuang Liang, Xin-Yu Hu +3LLM EvaluationUncertainty Quantification

    National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210063, China. · School of Intelligent Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Suzhou 215163, China.

  59. Interpretable Uncertainty Routing Separating Emotion Ambiguity from Distribution Shift in Facial Expression Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Keito Inoshita, Takato UenoUncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Faculty of Business and Commerce, Kansai University, Suita, Japan · Data Science and AI Innovation Research Promotion Center, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan · Graduate School of Data Science, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan

  60. Modular Diffusion Models for Structured Visual Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Siddhesh Khandelwal, Björn Ommer, Leonid SigalScene Graph GenerationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Compute Science, University of British Columbia · Vector Institute for AI · CompVis, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich +2