Area Under The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

Screening a phone call for fraud needs a trustworthy probability after every caller turn, in milliseconds. Jev-style typed decisions promise exactly that: declared options go in, one calibrated probability per option comes out of a single forward pass, with no generated text. We test an open implementation of this readout, JevLite, on scam-call screening: Qwen3-4B is LoRA-tuned so that the temperature-scaled softmax over two answer-label logits is P(scam). On 41 held-out CallScreenBench scenarios (577 per-turn decisions) a three-seed ensemble reaches AUROC .974 with calibration error .052, non-inferior to an LLM judge (MiniMax-M3) at a pre-registered .02 margin, with no false alarms on legitimate calls, decisions 1.14 turns earlier under the same hang-up rule, and 64.5 ms per decision on one consumer GPU, 4.9x lower than the same backbone fine-tuned to generate its answer. The gain is in the readout and calibration, not accuracy: a fine-tuned ModernBERT encoder is not significantly worse, the recipe was selected with test-set exposure, and all callers are synthetic. We claim no architectural novelty; the contribution is the application and an evaluation reporting calibration, false alarms and decision timing alongside AUROC.

Evaluating an AI system requires disaggregated assessment, as performance varies across domains such as benchmark task types or conversation types in deployed agents. Exhaustive testing is expensive, so evaluation rests on a sample of labeled units. We treat the evaluation set as a finite population and seek accurate point and interval estimates of each domain mean. Direct estimators, including prediction-powered inference (PPI), use only a domain's own labels and are imprecise where labels are few. Small area estimation addresses this problem, and we build on it to develop an integrated workflow for estimation and validation. For estimation, we propose prediction-powered smoothing (PP-S), a Bayesian model fit to each domain's prediction-powered estimate, with an extension that borrows strength across a reporting taxonomy (PP-TS). For validation, we derive a new, approximately unbiased design-based cross-validation score for choosing among direct and smoothed estimators. We study a curated benchmark with verifiable grading and deployed agent traffic graded by humans, each with every outcome observed. In both, the proposed estimators improve on the direct estimators in point and interval estimation, with near-nominal coverage. At the same sampling budget, our score selects as well as an independent validation sample does and estimates the selected estimator's error far more accurately.

Falls in older adults are often preceded by changes in mobility, balance, and postural transitions. This paper presents a wireless smart insole platform and machine-learning workflow for recognizing sitting, standing, walking, and unstable walking from plantar-pressure and inertial signals. Each insole integrates 16 active pressure-sensing locations and a six-dimensional IMU stream consisting of tri-axial acceleration and angular velocity. Data were collected from 15 healthy adults at 80~Hz and segmented into overlapping windows. Window length and candidate model families were first screened with stratified 10-fold cross-validation; the primary performance estimate was then obtained with participant-independent 5-fold Stratified Group cross-validation, ensuring that all windows from a participant remained in a single fold. Under this protocol, Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting (HGB) achieved macro-F1 scores of 0.954 and 0.959 for the left and right feet, respectively, and 0.980 with bilateral sensing. A compact 1D-CNN evaluated with the same participant-independent folds did not significantly outperform HGB ($p=0.0625$). The results show that low-profile footwear sensing can infer activity state from pressure and IMU measurements for participants unseen during training, establishing a basis for activity monitoring and fall prevention in elderly care.

Fallacy-detection benchmarks pair fallacy classes with a single "valid" or "none" class that takes everything data collection did not label as a fallacy. A detector has two jobs, deciding whether an argument is fallacious and naming which fallacy it commits, and the false-positive rate is meant to measure the first. We show that what these benchmarks actually score is scheme recognition, the ability behind the second job. Their own test sets already show it: when a classifier misses a fallacy, the error lands on "none" rather than on another fallacy type, so detection is failing while classification holds. The reason is what the valid class lacks. The negatives that separate the two jobs are correct arguments using the same argumentation scheme as a fallacy, and they are scarce: nearly absent from the four benchmarks we examined, and rare even under deliberate search. A detector is therefore never tested where recognizing a scheme and judging its use come apart, and can pass on recognition alone. We construct the missing arguments, together with a control condition from the same pipeline that differs only in scheme, so whatever generation contributes, it contributes to both. The classifier labels the scheme-matched negatives as the source fallacy, and labels the wrong-scheme negatives as the scheme they actually use 85.9% of the time and as the source type 0.4%. The classifier has learned which scheme an argument uses, not whether it uses it correctly. The over-flagging follows: a model that scores 16.6% on CoCoLoFa's own valid class flags 58.9% of the constructed arguments. The same dissociation appears in three zero-shot LLM detectors that never saw these benchmarks. We release the items as Scheme Foils. A reported false-positive rate should not be trusted as a measure of detection until the valid class has been audited for scheme-matched coverage.

Graph neural networks are widely used for transductive node classification, with accuracy typically measured on randomly drawn train/validation/test splits. Reported accuracy has been shown to shift substantially across different random splits of the same dataset, making published comparisons between architectures unreliable. The classical remedy in non-graph settings is stratified $k$-fold cross-validation, which ensures each test fold reflects the full class distribution of the dataset. We argue that class stratification alone is insufficient for graphs: nodes are not isolated but connected, and folds that differ in their distribution of local neighbourhood homophily expose the model to systematically different relational conditions that directly affect message-passing behaviour. The resulting cross-fold variation reflects the homophily composition of each split, inflating reported variance beyond what model behaviour alone would produce. To address this, we propose \hp{}, a topology-aware stratification procedure that treats node homophily as the primary stratification axis, aligning folds with respect to local relational consistency alongside the class marginal that standard stratification already controls. Stratifying on homophily alone does not guarantee class balance, so \hp{} incorporates class label as a secondary axis, preserving class representativeness as a natural consequence of the procedure. We evaluate \hp{} on a broad benchmark suite comprising 15 node-classification datasets spanning the full homophily spectrum and 7 GNN architectures. \hp{} achieves a mean stability rank of 1.49 compared to 2.31 for random $k$-fold, achieving the lowest mean stability rank on 13 of 15 datasets while preserving class balance close to class-stratified splits and substantially better than random. We argue that homophily-aware split construction merits broader adoption for GNN evaluation.

Over the years, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have demonstrated strong capability in cancer detection and classification using medical images. However, CNN-based models often struggle to capture long-range contextual dependencies. In such scenarios, integrating Compact Convolutional Transformer (CCT) architectures after the CCT layer allows CNN-extracted features to reshape into compact patch tokens using a CCT tokenizer, followed by the addition of positional embeddings to preserve spatial structure. Using 5-fold cross-validation, the model was tested on 3 sets of breast cancer mammography. With only 250,435 parameters, the model achieved 99%-100% accuracy across 3 datasets, indicating robust generalization. Explainable AI (XAI) was integrated into the model to explain the breast cancer classification process to enhance clinical trust. The results indicate that the proposed framework is suitable for computer-aided diagnosis systems, particularly in resource-constrained clinical environments. The novelty of the proposed CNN-integrated CCT overcomes the limitation of CNN's gradient degradation in the last layers by integrating convolutional tokenization with transformer-based learning. Lighter than ViT, which is effective in capturing long-range dependencies, the model has also proven efficient in breast cancer classification by capturing long-range dependencies among breast tissue regions.

As unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) become increasingly prevalent in consumer and defense settings, classifying them reliably from limited, modality-specific data is an urgent challenge. The dominant approach, large pretrained networks fully fine-tuned on task data, carries a substantial computational and memory weight that is hard to bear in resource-constrained UAV deployments, where edge inference and rapid retraining for emerging platforms are both required. This paper systematically scales across both model architectures and fine-tuning methods for UAV audio classification, asking when that weight is justified and when lighter alternatives prevail. Using a custom dataset of 3,100 audio clips spanning 31 drone classes, we evaluate transformer (ViT, AST) and convolutional (custom CNN, ResNet-18/152, MobileNet-V3-S/L, EfficientNet-B0/B7) backbones under full fine-tuning, classifier-only fine-tuning, and four parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods: SSF, IA3, OFT, and selective batch-norm tuning. All configurations are evaluated with 5-fold cross-validation across accuracy, training time, trainable-parameter share, and inference-time memory footprint. Selective batch-norm fine-tuning of EfficientNet-B7 with three-fold augmentations achieves the highest validation accuracy (97.65% +- 0.30) while updating under 0.5% of model parameters. Across the sweep, lightweight CNNs consistently outperform transformers on both accuracy and efficiency. For UAV audio classification under data scarcity, scaling the method outperforms scaling the model.

Video anomaly detection (VAD) is an actively studied task, having wide applications in typical scenarios such as public surveillance and road traffic safety. The task is also relevant for robotic arm interactions, where it has several downstream applications, including learning better interaction and manipulation abilities, triggering recovery procedures when anomalies occur, etc. Despite its relevance, the exploration of anomaly detection in robotic arm manipulation videos is limited by the low number of available resources. To this end, we introduce RoboVAD, a large-scale benchmark for video anomaly detection that comprises challenging cross-domain evaluation scenarios, where certain actions (tasks executed by a robotic arm) and anomaly types (mistakes that occur while performing certain tasks) remain unseen during training. RoboVAD is designed to benchmark VAD methods in realistic scenarios, where robotic arms can perform unforeseen tasks, and thereby encounter new anomaly types. We train and evaluate several state-of-the-art VAD methods, including a novel method specifically adapted for robotic arm manipulation. While the proposed method outperforms many state-of-the-art competitors, all methods remain below a micro-averaged frame-level AUC threshold of 70% in the most challenging evaluation setup, confirming the difficulty of the proposed benchmark. We publicly release our dataset and code at https://zenodo.org/records/22754659.

The clinical management of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) faces a bottleneck in early screening, mainly because trained specialists are scarce and conventional assessment tools are subjective. Here, we introduce ASDchat, a multimodal large language model designed for evidence-based ASD screening, which takes video, audio, and dialogue as input. ASDchat adopts a dual-branch architecture, where the decision branch generates screening probabilities and the evidence branch generates traceable, timestamped behavioral evidence aligned with standardized clinical criteria (ADOS-2). The model was trained and evaluated on a dataset of 1,035 participants from 27 sites in China, which covered typically developing (TD) children, children with ASD, and children with other disorders. For ASD versus TD, ASDchat reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.953 $\pm$ 0.021. On 9 held-out sites that were not used for training, the mean AUC was 0.932. Furthermore, unsupervised clustering of the behavioral dimensions split the ASD cases into six subtypes with different phenotypic profiles, and ASDchat suggests an intervention for each subtype. ASDchat provides a feasible path for large-scale, evidence-based early ASD screening in clinical practice.

Breast histopathology analysis increasingly relies on distributed learning because direct data pooling across institutions is often restricted by privacy, governance, and communication constraints. This study compares server-based Federated Averaging (FedAvg), fully decentralized gossip learning, and Hybrid Gossip-FedAvg for invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) patch classification. Experiments used 277,524 color image patches with patient-disjoint training, validation, and test partitions and a workload-balanced, Dirichlet-guided allocation across six nodes. Ring, random degree-3, and fully connected gossip topologies were evaluated together with sensitivity analyses for statistical heterogeneity, mixing coefficient, learning rate, model drift, prediction disagreement, calibration, clinically motivated operating points, communication payload, and patient-level IDC burden, together with auxiliary backbone robustness analyses. In the principal alpha=0.3 experiment, Hybrid Gossip-FedAvg achieved a test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.8811, closely followed by FedAvg at 0.8801 and fully connected gossip at 0.8751. Across three independent patient-level repetitions, FedAvg and Hybrid Gossip-FedAvg obtained the same mean ROC-AUC of 0.9082, with standard deviations of 0.0037 and 0.0043, respectively. Hybrid achieved the highest mean area under the precision-recall curve of 0.8240, whereas FedAvg produced the lowest mean Brier score of 0.1335. Denser gossip graphs improved discrimination but increased theoretical model payload, while ring gossip remained sensitive to learning rate and mixing strength. Overall, FedAvg provided the most consistently reliable server-based baseline, topology-aware gossip offered a viable decentralized alternative, and Hybrid Gossip-FedAvg provided a balanced compromise between peer-to-peer diffusion and periodic global coordination.

BraTS-GoAT evaluates tumor segmentation across heterogeneous populations. We trained a conventional 3D nnU-Net on 1,351 labeled cases using five-fold cross-validation and 1,000 epochs per fold. The final predictor averaged all folds and applied test-time mirroring. On pooled official validation, global DSC values were 0.7805, 0.8288, and 0.8854 for enhancing tumor (ET), tumor core (TC), and whole tumor (WT). Under matched fold-0 inference, mean regional Dice decreased from 0.9058 on source out-of-fold (OOF) cases to 0.8310 on pooled validation (difference--0.0747). Mirroring gave small single-fold gains but no clear ensemble benefit; a residual-encoder alternative reached 0.8282 mean Dice. In labeled OOF predictions, failure cases had substantially smaller reference ET volumes; after adjustment for ET and WT volume, lower Dice remained associated with more disconnected ET components and a smaller fraction of ET contained in the largest component.

Prompt-injection detectors are typically evaluated using aggregate F1 on in-distribution test data, which offers limited insight into behavior under distribution shift, particularly on the benign side of the decision boundary, where false positives impose direct operational cost yet are seldom measured. We present PIDS-Bench, a frozen multi-axis benchmark that jointly evaluates attack detection and benign false-positive behavior at fixed thresholds, spanning in-distribution inputs, hard-benign prompts that mimic injection structure without malicious intent, obfuscated attacks, and domain and structural distribution shifts. We evaluate seven detectors (learned baselines, external prompt-injection classifiers, and broad-safety comparators) alongside a rule-based lower-bound reference. Multi-axis evaluation exposes a failure mode that aggregate F1 conceals. A detector exceeding F1 = 0.98 on the held-out split still misclassifies roughly one-third of an externally-sourced benign subset drawn from public corpora and restricted to security-adjacent content. Across a full threshold sweep and five training seeds, no internal detector reaches an operating point satisfying F1 >= 0.95 and hard-benign FPR <= 0.10 together on this stress distribution. Decomposing by provenance, we find that hard-negative augmentation nearly eliminates over-defense on curated stress inputs but leaves it substantially intact on externally-sourced prompts, a pattern we term provenance-sensitive over-defense. The asymmetry holds across both fine-tuned architectures and does not diminish as the augmentation pool grows, with the externally-sourced FPR remaining far above the 0.10 target. Whether augmentation matched to the externally-sourced distribution would close this gap is untested; threshold calibration and curated-style augmentation alone do not.

Dementia is a major and growing global health burden, with Alzheimer's disease (AD) accounting for most cases. Timely and accurate diagnosis is central to managing this burden and increasingly depends on integrating complementary clinical and imaging information. Multimodal deep learning can combine these modalities for AD diagnosis, but how its explanations behave across modalities, fusion strategies, and cohorts remains unclear. We developed an explainable multimodal framework pairing a 3D CNN encoder for T1-weighted MRI with a feedforward network for harmonized clinical and demographic data, comparing varied model setups on three-way and pairwise diagnostic tasks using 6,479 internal records from the ADNI and 1,703 independent records from the OASIS-3. On ADNI, the tabular-only model achieved the highest three-class AUC-ROC of 0.879 and best discriminated cognitively normal (CN) versus mild cognitive impairment (MCI; 0.903), while cross-attention performed best for MCI versus AD (0.861); CN versus AD was highly discriminative overall. On OASIS-3, the vision-only model performed best (three-class AUC-ROC 0.910); CN versus MCI remained difficult, and no fusion strategy consistently outperformed single modalities across tasks and cohorts. SHAP and Integrated Gradients identified the MMSE as the dominant tabular feature in both cohorts, with global feature rankings agreeing strongly in ADNI ($\rho=0.94$) and OASIS-3 ($\rho=0.96$); CAM-based explanations, however, changed with model configuration and cohort. These findings show that multimodal performance and explanations are task, modality, fusion, and cohort-dependent: a dominant cognitive signal persisted across cohorts, but feature contributions and CAM explanations did not, underscoring the need to evaluate explainability under cohort shift rather than as a stable, intrinsic property.

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) data poses a significant threat to machine learning models, often leading to model failure during deployment. All existing OOD detection methods are post-hoc, relying on evaluation metrics such as accuracy and AUC-ROC during inference to indirectly assess the model's response to OOD data by measuring deviations. In contrast to existing approaches, the proposed work shifts the paradigm from OOD detection to OOD prediction by proposing a pre-hoc anticipatory framework called PLSP for OOD prediction. We make several key contributions: (a) a dataset-independent metric called the CREDibility Score (CREDS) is proposed for OOD prediction; (b) credibility curves are introduced to study the maximum credibility a model can attain; and (c) credibility heat maps (and volume under surface) are introduced to characterize pre-hoc model behavior across different datasets. This work provides a novel perspective on signal processing under distributional shifts. Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate that the proposed metric serves as a valuable measure for improving the robustness of machine learning models toward OOD prediction.

Cervical cancer is a major global health challenge, with disease burden falling disproportionately on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) due to a shortage of trained specialists and the subjective nature of colposcopy-based screening. To address this challenge, we propose a novel deep learning framework for the automated grading of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) and the prediction of clinical Swede scores. We also introduce the BUET Multi-Center Colposcopy Dataset, a novel, multi-center cohort designed and annotated for Swede score prediction and CIN grading. Our proposed dual-stream cross-attention architecture mimics the visual reasoning of an expert colposcopist by explicitly fusing paired multimodal cervigrams to evaluate comparative tissue responses. Furthermore, we introduce a custom composite loss function to address severe class imbalances and scoring inconsistencies across the five Swede score components. The proposed framework achieved 71.85% accuracy and an 86.23% AUC-ROC for three-class CIN grading, outperforming existing methods. For Swede score component prediction, the architecture achieved AUC-ROC values ranging from 75.7% to 88.4%, with the composite loss function yielding consistent F1-score improvements. Finally, the total predicted Swede Score, which ranges between 0 and 10, shows a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.489. The results show that the proposed method can pave the way towards developing AI-assisted colposcopy screening tools to support risk-based triage in resource-limited healthcare settings. The dataset and source code are publicly available(url: https://github.com/mHealthBuet/BUET-colposcopy)

Transportation agencies need pedestrian volume estimates across entire road networks to prioritize safety investments, yet manual counts are expensive and cover only a small share of intersections. We present a machine learning pipeline that predicts 2-hour PM peak pedestrian volume at 101 urban intersections in Portland, Oregon, from built-environment, land-use, and street-network features drawn from open GIS data. Starting from the Negative Binomial GLM used in practice, we add feature selection, count-aware gradient boosting, and repeated cross-validation, selecting one configuration by a combined rank over RMSE, MAPE, and SMAPE across four cross-validation strategies. The winner, a histogram-based gradient boosting model with Poisson loss and L1 Lasso feature selection, reduces cross-validated RMSE by 12% over the GLM baseline (89.8 to 78.7) and holdout RMSE by 19% (108.0 to 87.9). Code is released on GitHub.

Many ML datasets are constructed by running a detector, heuristic, or model over candidate pools; accepted items become labels. Dataset precision is then governed by true-positive prevalence in each pool via Bayes, not solely by detector quality. Using one instrument and period, we hold a detector-defined event dataset plus an independent official index labeling every detected item as real or phantom. One detector, three pools yield phantom rates 81.7%, 9.0%, and 0.0%. Transferring precision from the two high-rate pools to the low-rate pool predicts 0.955 versus measured 0.183, a +422% error; the Bayes expression predicts all three within 3.3%. The detected response curve is an exact convex combination of a true-event and a phantom component (residual 1.1e-16), with phantoms outnumbering true events 473 to 308, so contamination is a second signal with detector-inherited shape, not additive noise. Contamination direction depends on the estimator: on identical windows one statistic is diluted and another inflated because its denominator is also contaminated. A common normalization turns the estimator into a mean of ratios whose expectation need not exist; on the same 335 events it returns 0.40 where the well-defined estimator returns 0.10.

Machine learning models can achieve strong test performance while relying on demographic or acquisition-related shortcuts. We propose counterfactual (CF) marginalisation as a test-time evaluation procedure for assessing robustness of classification models to such variables. Given a CF image generator, we intervene on nuisance parent variables such as age or sex, generate CF versions of each test image, and average predictions over a target intervention distribution. This produces intervention-aware predictions that marginalise demographic effects while preserving patient-specific latent information. We use these predictions to define metrics for CF risk, calibration, stability and worst-case sensitivity. We demonstrate this framework's utility for quantitative robustness evaluation.

Maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a standard approach to imbalanced binary classification. Although positive and negative data are required for maximizing the AUC, negative data are often difficult to collect in some real-world applications due to privacy concerns or the need for specialized expertise to annotate them. Thus, AUC maximization from positive and unlabeled (PU) data has been attracting attention. Existing methods assume that labeled positive data are unbiased samples from the true positive distribution. However, this ideal assumption is often violated in practice. In this paper, we propose a method to maximize the AUC from biased PU data. To address the bias, our key idea is to exploit {\it confidence}, i.e., the probability that an instance is positive, associated with the small number of labeled positive data. We derive an estimator of the AUC risk using biased PU data with confidence, enabling AUC maximization under such bias. We further show that the rewritten AUC risk induces a Bayes-optimal AUC ranking even when the available confidence is any strictly increasing transformation of the true posterior probability. We experimentally show the effectiveness of our method on eight real-world datasets.

Most Deepfake detectors report near-perfect AUC scores on their reference benchmarks. However, a recent ICML position paper argues that these evaluations collectively neglect the impact of modern smartphone photography: the widely used on-device neural image-signal processing pipelines (like multi-sensor fusion or noise and motion-blur suppression) increasingly shift the imaging paradigm from simple lens projections towards computational photography. Hence, devices actually generate, rather than record photos. This increases the risk that deepfake detectors may flag ordinary phone photos as fake. Due to the lack of large-scale datasets containing images from modern smartphones, this hypothesis has so far only been tested in small proof-of-concept studies. The aim of this paper is to close this gap. We introduce LAION-Mobile, an open dataset containing about 1 million smartphone images with EXIF metadata distilled from re-LAION-5B. Evaluating twelve state-of-the-art deepfake detectors with their original paper checkpoints on a 9,115-image evaluation sample of this pool (DIRE on 738), we report three key findings: (i) On modern AI content no detector exceeds AUC 0.624, and five of twelve fall below chance. (ii) Real-photo false-alarm rates are an artefact of threshold calibration: thresholds fitted on legacy GAN data make several detectors look deployable (less than 11 percent FPR), yet the same detectors flag 17-91 percent of real photos once the identical criterion is refit on modern content. (iii) Consequently, no detector both beats chance on modern AI content and keeps a deployable real-photo false-alarm rate. Mirroring the device mix of web collections, the corpus probes the first neural-ISP generation (2018-2020); current flagships are essentially absent, leaving the modern-ISP regime as the open gap.

Cardiovascular screening models trained on national health surveys routinely report areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) near 0.89. We asked whether that accuracy reflects learning or target leakage, whether tabular foundation models change the answer, and whether the properties deployment requires survive joint examination. We benchmarked ten classifiers spanning linear, tree-ensemble, neural, glass-box, and tabular foundation classes for prevalent myocardial infarction in 442,067 respondents of the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Each was audited for discrimination, calibration, fairness at an explicit screening threshold, conformal coverage, explanation faithfulness, and inference cost, then applied -- models and thresholds frozen -- to 430,755 respondents of 2023. Removing two post-diagnostic features cost every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC, collapsing the field into a 0.0045-wide band. The glass-box explainable boosting machine was non-inferior to every alternative within a pre-specified 0.005 margin while scoring the cohort roughly 104 times faster than the strongest foundation model. One threshold detected 75.4% of women's infarctions against 89.0% of men's; editing the model's shape functions reduced the gap to 0.010. Marginal conformal prediction gave 0.86 coverage to men and 0.82 to adults over 60; Mondrian calibration repaired every stratum. Frozen models transported within 0.002 AUROC. Reported headroom in this literature is a property of the feature set, not the learner. Transparency cost nothing measurable and made fairness repair and uncertainty conditioning directly auditable. Evaluation practice, not model capacity, is the binding constraint.

In real-time colonoscopy, ground-truth annotations are unavailable at inference, so polyp segmentation models can fail silently. We propose Referee-Based Quality Estimation (RBQE), a reference-free framework measuring agreement between a primary segmentation model and an independently trained referee on the same image. RBQE is evaluated on a standardized 1,223-image external benchmark drawn from four public datasets, using four referee configurations chosen to separate two design axes: referee independence and architectural diversity. Using a common Agreement Dice descriptor, a same-architecture referee differing from the primary model only in random initialization already yields a useful reliability signal (ROC-AUC = 0.923), showing that independent training alone is sufficient. Cross-architecture referees improve further: SegFormer-B0 achieves the strongest performance (ROC-AUC = 0.960), significantly outperforming the same-architecture control and UNet++, and exceeding a representative Test-Time Augmentation baseline by 0.055 ROC-AUC under an identical protocol, whereas a prompt-coupled MedSAM referee underperforms despite maximal architectural diversity. Because empty-mask agreement is trivially separable, we also report a restricted evaluation excluding such cases: ROC-AUC falls to 0.876 (SegFormer-B0, 1,046 images) and 0.783 (same-architecture control, 975 images), yet RBQE's margin over both baselines widens on this identical subset. RBQE additionally increases the mean Dice of retained predictions as low-agreement cases are progressively rejected, supporting selective prediction, and requires only one additional deterministic referee forward pass at inference. Our study therefore supports cross-model agreement as a practical, interpretable reliability framework for automated polyp segmentation.

Medical claims data comprise the financial details, including the expenses and billing information, as well as the clinical information, such as the diagnoses and treatments, of patients visiting medical facilities. Recently, it has been acknowledged that large databases can be constructed from medical claims data for medical research purposes. However, the clinical information within these datasets is often medically unstructured, limiting its application in comprehensive analyses. This study enhances predictive model performance for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a leading cause of death worldwide. Models that predict MACE are crucial to clinical practice guidelines. We utilize a cross-attention mechanism to develop a method that effectively weights the relationships between diagnoses and treatments. Effectively repre- senting the clinical information contained in medical claims data, this approach generates more representative features for predicting MACE. The ROC-AUC score of our proposed cross-attention-based model was 0.7720, higher than other benchmark models including the conventional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model, the light gradient boosting machine, and a self-attention-based model. These results indicate that integrating the clinical structure of medical claims data using a cross-attention mechanism significantly enhances the performance of predictive models.

Choosing when to retrain a deployed classifier requires assessing subgroup error rates across the sequence of models used, including periods between updates. We compare complete scheduled, loss-triggered, and subgroup-gap-triggered policies with retaining the initial model on the same observations and delayed labels. For true-positive and false-positive rates separately, the outcome is the paired difference in absolute subgroup gaps summed over deployment windows. Population evaluation in simulation, action records, and alternative schedules assess how measurement and retraining behaviour affect these comparisons. In a follow-up sample of 400 new trajectories per condition across two simulated drift regimes, all three policies had lower mean cumulative disparity, equivalent to reductions of 0.04 to 0.88 percentage points in the average gap per window. Evaluating the unchanged models against the known generating distributions preserved all mean directions, but finite-window and population comparisons agreed on whether updating increased, reduced or left cumulative disparity unchanged in 69 to 92 percent of trajectories. Under subgroup-specific drift, smaller true-positive-rate gaps accompanied lower sensitivity in both groups. In an exploratory American Community Survey replay, person weighting reversed all three race false-positive-rate mean comparisons without changing predictions or actions; all three weighted intervals included zero. Policy comparisons require group-specific rates, action distributions, and an explicit evaluation population alongside mean disparity. These analyses are non-confirmatory. Shared replay requires policy-independent observations and complete labels after the specified delay.

Clinical diagnosis agents must decide not only what test to request next, but also when to diagnose or defer. Existing agent benchmarks largely evaluate accuracy after fixed or unconstrained interaction, leaving autonomous stopping reliability implicit. We present Cros, a risk-constrained stopping layer combining state-wise error ranking, policy design on disjoint development splits, and LTT-style exact tests of selective diagnostic error and minimum autonomous coverage for complete sequential policies. Its finite-sample guarantee requires the candidate family, testing rule, and any randomization to be frozen before calibration labels are accessed. On a 1,834-episode MIMIC-derived abdominal-pain benchmark, the full ranker achieves exploratory state-error AUROC 0.853, compared with 0.715 for maximum class probability and 0.552 for the backbone's native stop score. On the previously viewed 367-episode evaluation split, analytically averaging over the frozen Cros weights yields 16.9% selective error at 78.8% coverage, cost 5.57, and 0.68 tests, versus 30.8% error at 100% coverage, cost 8.14, and 1.53 tests under native stopping. Forced continuation is non-monotone: error is 28.3% with HPI alone and 34.3% after full workup. However, the uniform-weight mixture ablation is cheaper on this viewed split despite missing the locked development margins, and Cros nominally satisfies the joint criterion in only 6 of 20 development resplits. Because evaluation labels were inspected during earlier development, these findings provide exploratory feasibility and audit evidence, not a confirmatory safety certificate.

Chagas disease is a major cause of cardiomyopathy in Latin America. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging can characterize its structural abnormalities, but scanners and expert readers remain scarce in endemic regions. Electrocardiography (ECG) is inexpensive and widely available, yet structural disease must be inferred indirectly from electrical signals. We propose to transfer CMR-derived structural knowledge to ECG through contrastive pre-training. Using 63,193 paired ECG-CMR examinations from the UK Biobank, we align an ECG encoder with a clinically grounded CMR embedding space using an asymmetric InfoNCE objective. Despite seeing no Chagas cases during pre-training, the resulting representation improves ECG-based Chagas detection. Across CODE-15% and SaMi-Trop, a frozen linear probe achieves an AUROC of 0.851 and sensitivity at the top 5% of predicted risk (Top5%-TPR) of 0.427 in five-fold cross-validation, compared with 0.827 and 0.377 for an unaligned ECG-FM baseline. On the PhysioNet/CinC 2025 Challenge test set, our model obtains the highest AUROC on SaMi-Trop-3 and the best ELSA-Brasil challenge score among the three top-performing methods, indicating that imaging-supervised ECG representations can generalize to populations and settings beyond the pre-training distribution.

Sign Language Translation has advanced with deep learning, yet evaluations remain largely signer-dependent, with overlapping signers across train/dev/test. This raises concerns about whether models truly generalise or instead rely on signer-specific regularities. We conduct signer-fold cross-validation on GFSLT-VLP, GASLT, and SignCL, three leading, publicly available, gloss-free SLT models, on CSL-Daily and PHOENIX14T. Under signer-independent evaluation, performance drops sharply: on PHOENIX14T, GFSLT-VLP falls from BLEU-4 21.44 to 3.59 and ROUGE-L 42.49 to 11.89; GASLT from 15.74 to 8.26; and SignCL from 22.74 to 3.66. We also observe that in CSL-Daily many target sentences are performed by multiple signers, so common splits can place identical sentences in both training and test, inflating absolute scores by rewarding recall of recurring sentences rather than genuine generalisation. These findings indicate that signer-dependent evaluation can substantially overestimate SLT capability. We recommend: (1) adopting signer-independent protocols to ensure generalisation to unseen signers; (2) restructuring datasets to include explicit signer-independent, sentence-disjoint splits for consistent benchmarking; and (3) reporting both signer-dependent and signer-independent results together with train-test sentence overlap to improve transparency and comparability.

Shortcut learning denotes the widespread situation in which a classifier exploits spurious correlations rather than diagnostic features. Existing mitigation strategies mostly aim to learn shortcut-invariant representations; their empirical success is limited and they cannot be applied to classifiers using frozen foundation model encoders. We propose to reframe shortcut learning as fundamentally a calibration problem: unconstrained learning implicitly calibrates each shortcut group to its training set disease prevalence, rendering the resulting classifier necessarily over-confident in one group and under-confident in the other. Building on this insight, we prevalence-equalize calibration between shortcut groups through two encoder-agnostic methods, an in-processing regularizer and a post-hoc prevalence-equalized recalibration step. Across chest-drain-pneumothorax benchmarks on CheXpert and SIIM-ACR, spanning fine-tuned CNNs and frozen foundation-model backbones, both methods substantially outperform all baselines. Post-hoc recalibration of a standard ERM-trained DenseNet raises misaligned-group AUROC from 0.23 to 0.73, indicating that shortcut reliance degrades the classification head rather than the underlying representation. Besides two new state-of-the-art shortcut mitigation approaches, our findings more fundamentally connect shortcut learning to calibration theory and algorithmic fairness.

How can vision-language models help video anomaly detection (VAD) when surveillance data remain distributed, weakly labeled, and resource-constrained? Most weakly supervised VAD methods assume centralized training; recent VLM-based extensions further rely on dense inference, generated explanations, or additional adaptation. We introduce a lightweight federated MIL-VLM cascade in which only a compact MIL scorer is trained across clients, while a frozen VLM verifies high-scoring suspect segments post hoc. We study two VLM feedback interfaces: parsed text-generation decisions and a logit-based interface that extracts a continuous anomaly score from next-token Yes/No probabilities. Experiments on UCF-Crime with InternVL3.5-2B and Qwen3-VL-2B-Instruct show that text-generation verification can improve frame-level AUC after diagnostic temporal post-processing, but remains sensitive to prompts, parsers, model choice, and smoothing. In contrast, the logit interface provides a fixed parser-free signal that improves both frame-level AUC and frame-level AP over the MIL baseline across both VLMs, without temporal post-processing in its main configuration. Since suspect segments are updated independently once available, next-token logit feedback provides a simple segment-local alternative to text-generation verification.

Although document OCR systems perform increasingly well on routine documents, complex formulas, structured text, and long-tail formats remain error-prone. OCR predictions may omit fine-grained content or hallucinate unsupported outputs, while equivalent encodings of the same visible content must be accommodated. Existing OCR evaluation methods mostly report aggregate metrics, offering limited support for analyzing case-level errors and improving OCR performance. We propose OCR-EDR (OCR Error Diagnosis and Repair), a rendering-aware framework that advances from fine-grained diagnosis to iterative repair. Given a source image, an editable OCR prediction, and its rendered image, OCR-EDR first jointly assesses whether the prediction and its rendering are consistent with the source, preserving valid predictions, including rendering-equivalent ones, while diagnosing and localizing genuine errors. It then applies executable edits and may request an updated rendering for iterative reassessment. We construct OCRErrBench from diverse real OCR predictions, covering text and formulas, exact and rendering-equivalent positives, and genuine errors, and develop the DocEDR model to execute the diagnosis--repair loop. On OCRErrBench, DocEDR achieves 94.78% diagnostic accuracy. It repairs 86.23% of erroneous inputs to visual consistency, raises formula Case-F1 by 30.99 percentage points over DOCR-Inspector-7B on DOCRcaseBench, and improves formula CDM by up to 4.62 percentage points on the identified Bad subsets of four OCR systems on UniMER-Test. These results show that OCR-EDR turns fine-grained OCR analysis into verified corrections and performance gains.

Statutes are increasingly parsed by machines before people read them, and the parsers disagree: on Missouri's statutes, two independently written extractors diverge on numeric-threshold presence at a false-negative rate of 0.43. We ask what formal logic survives such noise. We build a passive survival certificate for the Duquenne-Guigues implication basis of machine-extracted statutory contexts: per-attribute inter-extractor disagreement is measured, replayed against the basis in 1,000 Monte Carlo trials, and an implication is certified only when a one-sided Wilson 95% lower bound on survival reaches 0.95; every certified implication carries premise spans and a minimal counterexample. On 29,365 Missouri sections and 502 Indian central-Act sections, the preregistered held-out gate passes (10 statute families across 7 Titles exact; 16 across 11 with 5% tolerance), yet under one globally deployed error model 93.2% of held-out chapters fall below the informativeness floor, and a 2x2 factorial assigns that to calibration-rate transfer, not selection. The certificate is usable but fragile: deploy it per-chapter-calibrated or error-tolerant. Code, data products, and the audit trail, including one retracted claim, are released.

Text-to-Speech (TTS) foundation models are increasingly fine-tuned on private datasets to synthesize highly personalized voices, introducing severe privacy risks by exposing both biometric identities and sensitive speech content. Existing black-box membership inference attacks (MIAs) follow a two-stage pipeline of query generation and representation engineering, both of which face unique challenges when adapted to TTS. For query generation, dual conditioning on synthesis text and reference speech creates a large and underexplored query design space with no established criterion for identifying an effective query. For representation engineering, the multi-level speech characteristics and temporal variability of speech make low-level representations and direct comparisons inadequate for capturing membership signals. To address these challenges, we present the first black-box MIA framework explicitly tailored to TTS models at both the speaker and record levels. For query generation, we characterize the feasible query space and establish two criteria, scorable extent and memorization elicitation, for evaluating five representative queries, identifying recitation as the strongest. For representation engineering, we obtain multi-level speech representations from embedding models and temporally align the generated and target audio for fine-grained comparison. Evaluations across three state-of-the-art TTS models (CosyVoice2, F5-TTS, and XTTS-v2) fine-tuned on two benchmark datasets (VCTK and British Dialect) reveal severe privacy leakage: speaker-level AUC remains above 0.80 and approaches 1.0 in the strongest settings, while record-level AUC ranges from 0.80 to 0.90 and remains effective even in challenging scenarios where both members and non-members are of the same speakers. We further identify speech characteristics associated with disproportionate vulnerability to memorization.

This paper presents a multi-branch fusion framework for detecting and characterising the propagation of health misinformation in online social networks (OSNs). Grounded in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), the model fuses transformer-based semantics with rhetorical cues, stance representations, and psychologically motivated proxies in a unified multi-task architecture. In addition to binary classification, we introduce the Cognitive Propagation Score (CPS), an interpretable post-hoc auxiliary score computed from psychologically motivated, text-derived cues capturing argument complexity, emotional intensity, and content-derived virality potential, to support diffusion-risk reasoning when engagement ground truth is incomplete or unavailable. Experiments on three benchmark datasets, Constraint, COVID--19_FNIR, and Monkeypox, show strong classification performance, achieving ROC--AUC up to 0.9999 on COVID--19_FNIR, while propagation-oriented ranking achieves near-perfect agreement when engagement-derived supervision is available (Monkeypox, Spearman's $ρ= 0.9952$) and similarly high ranking alignment under proxy-based supervision on COVID--19_FNIR ($ρ= 0.9954$). Compared with representative literature baselines, the fusion model improves detection on Constraint and COVID--19_FNIR, while Monkeypox remains more challenging, reflecting domain- and signal-specific differences. Ablation analysis further indicates that psychological and rhetorical branches provide complementary gains beyond semantic embeddings. Overall, the framework bridges cognitive theory and neural modelling to improve transparency and to support scalable misinformation monitoring, with future work required to validate CPS against human-centred diffusion judgements.

Following arXiv:2607.25507, this report examines whether phase-derived features improve endpoint prediction over a combined baseline in two settings: a sealed contradiction comparison and a retrospective analysis of answer changes across matched pressure prompts. Study 1 froze a contradiction-category pipeline before sealed scoring. On 1,136 eligible primary cases, adding PC-2 produced a paired AUROC difference of +0.00087. The 99% bias-corrected accelerated interval included zero, and the prespecified +0.05 threshold was not met. A replication role with 1,063 cases showed a same-direction increment of +0.00019. The replication-direction condition passed, but both primary conditions failed, so advancement failed. Study 2 developed fifteen treatments on blocks b0-b4 using 1,415 eligible answer-change comparisons and twenty-repeat, five-fold grouped cross-validation. An execution on 9 September 2026 recomputed development statistics from saved prediction units and applied a three-condition gate; no treatment advanced. Layer 25 had the only positive mean-repeat PC-2 increment, approximately +0.00027, with a favorable sign in three of five seed blocks. These statistics measure development consistency, not whole-seed-block holdout performance. Agreement with earlier selection records does not establish an earlier notebook execution or that the rule was fixed before inspecting development results. The planned b5 selection and b6 evaluation were not completed through this gate. Neither study demonstrated the incremental benefit required by its applied advancement rule. The findings limit support for the evaluated feature constructions; they do not test the rotary score identity, its local pre-softmax bound, or the effectiveness of execution-boundary governance.

We propose a lightweight two-stage framework for real-time video anomaly detection. The first stage employs YOLO v11n-pose to detect persons and extract seventeen skeletal keypoints in a single forward pass. The second stage encodes each cropped person region through CLIP ViT-B/32 and computes cosine similarity against predefined textual descriptions of anomalous behaviors. This architecture eliminates the need for optical flow, standalone pose estimators, and density-based scoring modules. Experiments on CUHK Avenue, ShanghaiTech Campus, and a custom indoor dataset collected at Chulalongkorn University demonstrate an end-to-end throughput of approximately 51 FPS on an NVIDIA Titan XP GPU, a 3.36x speedup over the multi-feature baseline, while maintaining frame-level AUROC values of 89.26%, 70.26%, and 84.13%, respectively.

Ambient AI scribes draft clinical notes, and published audits find their dominant error is omission: information the encounter established that the note fails to record. The standard check is an LLM judge: a second model reads the note against the transcript and flags problems. We ask whether judges detect omissions. Public corpora cannot supply the answer key: their clinician reference notes and transcripts are materially discrepant. Our benchmark has 500 single-error note pairs from audited fact sheets, 298 with a named fact certainly absent and 202 added-or-altered controls. Across eight judge designs, paired discrimination (the flawed note below its clean twin, 0.5 a coin flip) reads 0.79-0.94 on added or altered content and 0.50-0.63 on omissions. On single notes, no design flags omissions reliably more often than perfect notes. Wording changes, voting and GEPA prompt optimisation move the operating point without creating usable detection. Restructuring the task recovers it: list the facts the transcript establishes, then check the note for each. Two methods reach it independently and trade off: a per-fact pipeline, and a GEPA-evolved prompt doing the same in one call. The pipeline's flags name the missing fact and its severity at 2.7% false alarms. The single call detects more (36.9% against 24.6%, p=0.002) at 6.2% false alarms and a tenth of the cost per note. A physician author validated 70 items and, where the two routes disagree, sided with the pipeline on 10 of 10 (p=0.002). A second clinician, not an author, graded the severity rubric blind and agrees to within a grade. On real vendor notes from a companion census no benchmark threshold transfers, but the re-calibrated single call detects more than the best of the eight at half its false-alarm rate. Omissions whose fact is restated elsewhere defeat both routes. We release the benchmark, prompts and judgements.

Background: Population level assessments of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) can conceal performance disparities across subgroups. Fairness evaluations commonly rely on performance analyses across subgroups. However, some performance metrics are non-collapsible, meaning that the overall population performance value does not equal the weighted average of subgroup specific values. Objective: To examine the collapsibility properties of commonly reported performance metrics in predictive AI, with a focus on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, also known as c-statistic). Methods: We investigate the collapsibility of 15 performance metrics, either by expressing each metric as a linear combination of its stratum specific values or, where non-collapsible, by providing a counterexample inspired by Simpson's paradox as a formal disproof. Results: Five performance metrics (AUC, calibration intercept, calibration slope, expected calibration error, and Nagelkerke R^2) are shown to be non-collapsible, and ten (O:E ratio, logloss, Brier score, accuracy, F1-score, true positive rate, true negative rate, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and net benefit) are shown to be collapsible. The AUC is shown to be non-collapsible because it decomposes into within- and cross-group AUC terms when subpopulations coexist, such that its overall value may fall outside the range of subgroup specific AUCs. Conclusions: Non-collapsibility of performance metrics has important consequences for reporting, model appraisal, and fairness evaluation. It can generate spurious differences between subgroup and overall performance, which may mislead fairness evaluations. Explicitly acknowledging and reporting the collapsibility properties of performance metrics improves both the interpretability and transparency of fairness assessments.

Deep-learning models can achieve strong chest X-ray (CXR) classification performance without establishing whether their predictions predominantly rely on pulmonary image content. This study evaluates pulmonary attribution containment as an anatomy-related reliability property distinct from diagnostic performance. We propose DBCA-SegNet-MGAP, a multi-task anatomy-guided CNN-Transformer framework that combines complementary feature representations through bidirectional cross-backbone attention, predicts a soft lung mask, and incorporates this anatomical prior directly into classification through Mask-Guided Adaptive Global Average Pooling (MGAP). Pulmonary attribution containment is quantified using the Anatomical Local Energy Ratio (ALR) and high-intensity cumulative ALR (cALR@0.9). Experiments were repeated across three training seeds using the COVID-19 Radiography Database for four-class internal testing and a locked Shenzhen-to-Montgomery protocol for zero-shot external tuberculosis testing. On COVID-19, the proposed model achieved a weighted F1 of $0.9615 \pm 0.0015$ and macro ROC-AUC of $0.9906 \pm 0.0007$. In an architecture-matched dual-bridge comparison, replacing conventional GAP with MGAP increased ALR from $0.3878 \pm 0.0098$ to $0.7086 \pm 0.0104$ and cALR@0.9 from $0.5265 \pm 0.0101$ to $0.9905 \pm 0.0018$, while weighted F1 remained essentially unchanged ($0.9618 \pm 0.0015$ vs. $0.9615 \pm 0.0015$). Under locked external transfer to Montgomery, ROC-AUC remained $0.9080 \pm 0.0043$ and pulmonary ALR remained $0.6466 \pm 0.0081$, whereas weighted F1 decreased to $0.7528 \pm 0.0080$ and ECE increased to $0.1683 \pm 0.0055$. These findings show that diagnostic discrimination, calibration, and pulmonary attribution containment are distinct model properties and support their joint evaluation under internal testing and external domain shift.

Accurate bladder tumor segmentation and assessment of mus- cle invasion from T2-weighted MRI are important for treatment plan- ning, but developing robust models across institutions is challenging be- cause patient data cannot be centrally pooled and imaging characteristics vary across scanners and acquisition protocols. We propose a federated multi-task learning framework for joint bladder tumor segmentation and MIBC/NMIBC classification across four clinical centers. The proposed Swin Hybrid model combines a ResNet-34 branch for local texture and boundary information with a Swin-Tiny Transformer for global anatomi- cal context. A segmentation-guided classification mechanism further uses tumor localization information to support MIBC prediction. We also investigate several augmentation strategies under both centralized and federated training to improve robustness to multi-center variability. Ex- periments on the FedBCa dataset show that the Swin Hybrid provides the best overall balance between segmentation and classification among the evaluated architectures. Under federated training, Geo+Elastic aug- mentation achieved a DSC of 0.8100 and a patient-level AUC of 0.8931, yielding the highest combined score of 0.8474. These results demonstrate that joint segmentation and classification can be effectively performed across multiple institutions using federated training without centralizing patient data.

We compare six self-supervised pretext tasks for infant cry analysis under a fixed budget, meaning the same compact encoder of 1.17M parameters, the same 115 hours of license-verified public pretraining audio, and the same evaluation protocol for every candidate. On cry detection the reconstructive objectives dominate, and a linear probe over a masked-spectrogram encoder reaches 0.988 AUC with subject-wise splits even though the encoder never observed a cry during pretraining. On cry-reason classification over donateacry, the de facto public benchmark for cry reasons, every encoder performs at chance (0.38 to 0.54 macro AUC over 5 classes), and neither domain adaptation on 1.8 hours of real cries nor end-to-end fine-tuning moves the result. Since a frozen HuBERT-base with 80 times more parameters shows the same pattern, the bottleneck must sit in the labels and not in model capacity. We then reproduce the 90%+ accuracies of the donateacry literature on our own system by changing nothing but the evaluation protocol: clip-wise splits raise accuracy to 85.2% (barely above the 83.8% majority-class baseline), and applying augmentation before splitting raises it to 97.9%, matching the reported state of the art, from the same model that measures 0.49 macro AUC under subject-wise splits. Under leakage-free splits, a twentyfold augmentation of the labeled set (vocoder speaker perturbation and noise mixing, 21 hours) leaves cross-subject AUC unchanged: for this task the effective sample size is the number of infants. We release code, seeds and per-clip license manifests.

Click-through rate (CTR) models vary in feature-interaction design, yet their top networks usually remain a single multilayer perceptron shared by all examples. Heterogeneous user, item, and context subgroups therefore update the same parameters; weakly aligned learning signals make the aggregate gradient a compromise among competing directions. We study the competition on Avazu with 4 models and 4 semantic fields. Across all architectures, semantic subgroups show lower Top-NN gradient cosine similarity than random groups matched by sample size and label ratio, with reductions of 0.23-0.37. This competition motivates input-conditioned experts, but directly replacing an established Dense mapping changes its initial function, sharing pattern, and capacity, obscuring the source of gains. We introduce PRIME (Plug-in Residual Input-conditioned Mixture of Experts), a Dense-anchored mixture of low-rank residual experts. PRIME anchors the original prediction and uses zero-residual initialization to match the Dense baseline exactly at training onset. Input-dependent routing weights low-rank experts for example-specific logit corrections; multi-bag aggregation and EMA load biases stabilize conditional estimation. We evaluate PRIME on held-out Avazu and Criteo test sets across 13 CTR architectures and five paired seeds. Median paired AUC gains are +0.0022 and +0.0066, with LogLoss reductions of 0.0011 and 0.0081, respectively. On FiBiNET and DCNv2, PRIME outperforms APG in all ten seed-level AUC comparisons while using fewer parameters and lower inference latency on both backbones. These results show that function-preserving conditional residuals add input-dependent capacity while preserving the Dense path and its optimization stability. Code is available at https://github.com/YH-learning/PRIME.

Credit-default prediction is an important task in financial decision making. Traditional methods use fitted classifiers such as logistic regression and random forests on tabular features. Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to this task through prompting. In this work we study how a fitted classifier and an LLM can be combined for credit-default prediction. We distinguish telling the LLM to imitate a classifier from using the classifier to build the prompt. We hypothesize that a fitted classifier can supply the ranking ability that an LLM prompt lacks. We experiment on the Default of Credit Card Clients dataset, and report recall, F1, and the area under the ROC and precision-recall curves, with bootstrap confidence intervals. We observe that a few-shot LLM has the highest recall (0.47) and F1 (0.50) of any single model but ranks worse than a random forest (AUC-ROC 0.72 against 0.79). Instructing the LLM to imitate a classifier gives no significant change. Pruning the prompt to the classifier's eight most important features raises recall by 0.071 and F1 by 0.032. Adding the classifier's predicted probability to the prompt raises the LLM's AUC-ROC from 0.72 to 0.78, matching the random forest, while keeping 0.118 higher recall than it. The reverse composition, and the use of several classifiers, do not help. We thus recommend a simple classifier-guided prompt for LLM-based credit prediction.

To avoid missing important variables and their connections in networks, more and more variables are included in network analysis. Here we show that in a setting with many more parameters than observations (high-dimensional) it is possible to get a conservative (i.e., low false positive rate) estimate of the neighbourhood for each node (which connections are in the network). A neighbourhood is often estimated with a linear model, and this leads to two interesting cases: (i) If the true model is linear, then neighbourhood selection work reasonably well, and (ii) if the true model is nonlinear, then neighbourhood selection requires a penalty for the high dimensions. Here we show the impact of the ridge parameter on the mean squared error, and how this leads to low test variance and hence to neighbourhoods with large numbers of edges. We connect these insights with results from machine learning, where the so-called double descent (when more parameters are included than observations, the mean squared error goes down a second time) has put the traditional view on model selection upside down. Essentially, for adequate neighbourhood selection in models with a large number of parameters, the volume of the model space needs to be included in the penalty. Most neighbourhood selection methods (e.g., Lasso, AIC, BIC) lead to spurious edges (high false positive rate), but we prove that in the high-dimensional setting, minimum description length leads to correct neighbourhood selection or smaller (low false positive rates) in both cases when either the model is correctly or incorrectly assumed linear

Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) can improve the transparency of cancer image diagnostic prediction by expressing predictions through radiological concepts. However, their dependence on instance-level concept annotations limits practical applicability. We propose a prior-guided hybrid CBM that integrates limited concept annotations, class-conditional concept distribution matching on unannotated patients, and prior initialization of the concept-to-diagnosis head. We evaluate the method on CBIS-DDSM mammographic masses and calcifications and LIDC-IDRI pulmonary nodules across 0-100% concept annotation. In the clinically relevant 0-20% annotation regime, the hybrid CBM consistently improves mean concept AUC over a matched standard CBM, while maintaining diagnostic performance close to black-box models. At 10% annotation specifically, concept AUC increases from 0.619 to 0.741 for masses, from 0.650 to 0.787 for calcifications, and from 0.597 to 0.642 for pulmonary nodules. Ablation experiments identify prior initialization as the main component contributing to improved concept detection, likely by stabilizing the concept-to-diagnosis head. Zero-shot VLMs remain insufficient for reliable fine-grained tumor-level concept prediction. These findings suggest that structured priors can substantially reduce the annotation burden of interpretable cancer imaging models.

Access to clinical data is essential for developing reliable healthcare machine learning systems, but direct use of electronic health records is constrained by privacy regulation, institutional review, data-use agreements, and the risk of re-identification. Synthetic data promises a practical alternative: it can preserve useful statistical and clinical structure while reducing exposure of sensitive patient records. Prior studies often evaluate a single generator, one dataset, or a narrow downstream task, making it difficult to know when synthetic data can support model development and when it fails to preserve task-critical signal. We introduce CoMedBench, a reproducible benchmark that evaluates a family of generators under a common clinical-validity framework and one shared training and evaluation engine, spanning static tabular and temporal downstream tasks on established critical-care datasets. In total the benchmark spans 37 dataset-task pairs across two modalities consists of 20 static tabular and 17 temporal ICU time-series-drawn from seven public data sources: three intensive-care databases (MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and eICU) together with the UCI Machine Learning Repository, the CDC BRFSS diabetes cohort (2015), NHANES (1999-2014), and the pycox survival datasets (GBSG and METABRIC). The benchmark evaluates both statistical fidelity and task utility by comparing models trained and tested across real and synthetic data. In these settings, synthetic training data preserves most of the downstream signal: on tabular tasks the reference generator CoMed-CTGAN retains a mean AUROC utility (the synthetic-to-real performance ratio) of 90.6%, rising to 97.3% for the strongest generator, CoMed-TVAE. Temporal ICU tasks are harder and more generator-sensitive: CoMed-CTGAN retains 81.6% (AUROC) and only 64.0% under the imbalance-sensitive AUPRC, whereas CoMed-TVAE still retains ~95% (AUROC).

Two free satellite signals carry real information about glacial-lake outburst risk in the Nepal Himalaya: radar interferometry sees a moraine dam slowly sagging, and satellite weather marks the weeks when a primed lake is under stress. A companion feasibility study found that deformation indicates which lake is destabilizing and weather indicates when it is at risk, but proposed no predictive model. To address this gap, we propose and evaluate models that predict which site is susceptible and when a trigger arrives. We test three related hazards on free data alone: large moraine- and ice-dammed bursts, rainfall-triggered landslides, and smaller floods from ponds on and around a glacier. Each hazard gets two questions, never blended. Using 589 dated outbursts from HMAGLOFDB and several thousand catalogued landslides, we match each event against similar but unfailed sites, and hold every model to a strong simple baseline under spatial cross-validation that withholds whole map tiles, so no model succeeds by recognising a trained-on neighbourhood. Antecedent weather times the trigger at ROC 0.73 for big bursts, 0.83 for landslides, and 0.82 for small floods. Terrain ranks susceptibility only in part: scored naively it appears near 0.9, largely because catalogued failures cluster in wetter ranges; matched against comparable nearby sites the honest figures are 0.76, 0.71, and 0.54 (no better than chance). The burst signal holds within single regions, reaching 0.89 in Nepal alone. Five deep-learning models do not decisively beat a simple gradient-boosted baseline. Three score marginally higher on landslides, a hint too small to confirm. For the lake hazards the baseline wins outright, reproduced by a three-rule decision tree on ruggedness and monsoon rainfall. We close with a ranked Nepal watchlist, a prioritisation aid, not a prediction, and note where free data reaches its limits.

Skin cancer diagnosis from dermoscopic images remains challenging due to high intra-class variability, inter-class similarity, class imbalance, and the limited interpretability of deep learning models. This paper proposes an uncertainty-aware and explainable deep learning framework for multi-class skin lesion classification. The framework combines a vision transformer model (MaxViT-Tiny) with CNN-based models (ConvNeXt-Tiny and EfficientNetV2-B0) through deep ensemble learning. Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout estimates predictive uncertainty and identifies unreliable predictions, while Grad-CAM++, an explainable AI (XAI) technique, provides visual explanations by highlighting lesion regions that influence model decisions. Evaluated on the HAM10000 dataset, the framework achieves 96% accuracy and 99% ROC-AUC under uncertainty-aware filtering (entropy < 1.0, confidence >= 0.7), with macro-average precision, recall, and F1-score of 94%, 95%, and 95%, respectively, and 96% weighted-average scores across all three metrics. The results demonstrate accurate, interpretable, and uncertainty-aware skin lesion classification for trustworthy computer-aided diagnosis.

Professionals across medicine, engineering, finance, manufacturing, and the sciences often make consequential decisions from charts. Existing chart benchmarks do not sufficiently measure this ability: they are dominated by bar, line, and pie formats, rely on shorter reasoning chains, and are nearing saturation, with frontier models already scoring 80-90%. We introduce Chartography, a benchmark of 100 tasks that pair charts drawn from professional practice, in domain-specific formats that standard chart benchmarks rarely include, with questions written by professionals who read these charts for a living and independently verified by three additional experts. In an evaluation of 30 frontier-model configurations (20 scored trials per task), the best configuration reaches only 45.0% mean pass@1; the remainder span 9.0-39.5%. Failures concentrate in visual perception: models can miss nuanced features, misread values along sparsely labeled axes, mishandle projected 3D geometry, and violate domain conventions encoded in the chart. We release all tasks, images, provenance metadata, and evaluation code.

Automated radiology report generation is advancing rapidly in response to the shortage of radiologists, yet unlike a perception model, existing generation models offer no control over the sensitivity-specificity trade-off of their diagnostic content. Such control is essential because clinical scenarios diverge: emergency triage prioritizes sensitivity to reduce missed findings, whereas confirmatory interpretation emphasizes specificity to limit unnecessary interventions. A single fixed report can neither adapt to these scenarios nor support the ROC-based validation widely expected for regulatory clearance. We introduce RadFusion, a framework that equips report generation with threshold controllability. Our method fuses a multi-label classifier, which provides per-disease confidence scores, with a VQA-based report generator, which describes medical findings in detail; an LLM then rewrites the report so that its stated diagnoses follow the classifier's decisions at the selected threshold while staying grounded in the generator's descriptions. On MIMIC-CXR, the performance of RadFusion conforms to the classifier's ROC curve: sweeping the threshold and mapping the reports back to class labels reproduces the classifier's validated ROC performance. This conformance makes generated reports quantitatively evaluable through ROC analysis, strengthening the case for regulatory clearance, and enables operating-point selection that matches report behavior to clinical context. Moreover, combining the two model types improves diagnostic accuracy over uncontrolled generation: sensitivity increases by 6.9% at matched specificity, and specificity by 20.7% at matched sensitivity. These results show that RadFusion makes report generation clinically adaptable, quantitatively verifiable, and diagnostically more reliable.

Agent frameworks ship quality gates that compare text blocks by embedding-cosine similarity and decide at a fixed cutoff. Deduplication filters, semantic caches, drift guards, and answer grader gates deploy to answer the question: "Does this text still mean the same thing?" But the score answers a different question: "How much did the wording change?" We audit this gate class as a measurement instrument. In the cases these gates exist to catch, the two can run in opposite ways. Many times, reversing an instruction is a single word edit, while agreement often rephrases a sentence. The consequence is a safety check that fires backwards. The production drift guard we audited caught 0 of 56 meaning-breaking mutations, and one approved item, "withhold the study drug" -> "administer the study drug", came in at cosine 0.9608. We observed five shipped operating points, and balanced accuracy across 90 configuration-threshold-task cells never exceeded 0.700 (median 0.525). The same confounder also corrupted evaluations. A naively built corpus inherits this confounder and can return an inverted verdict, with a decision AUROC exactly 0.000 in 13 of 18 configuration-task cells (at most 0.040 in all 18) against 0.440-0.815 for the same nine configurations under a balanced 2x2 design. Twice in the effort it captured our own headline claims. Obvious repairs fail: an encoder swap and an overlap-conditioned gate (0.750 in-sample, 0.533 held-out) land at chance on separately authored held-out data, and an NLI drop-in did no better. Embeddings do still bear hope here, as the strongest two of nine configurations separated reversal from paraphrase at matched overlap (AUROC 0.79-0.90), but only a matched-pair audit reveals the deployment regime. We release the corpus method, harness, and frozen results, and contend that scores gated this way measure the wrong thing. We believe a valid instrument is buildable.

Public chest X-ray repositories are widely used to train medical AI systems, yet their labels are typically extracted from radiology reports rather than verified directly on images. As a result, repository labels are often treated as image-level ground truth without validating whether they reflect what is actually visible in the radiograph. We introduce Repository Supervision Auditing (RSA), a framework that evaluates repository-derived labels against expert image-level annotations before model development. Using cardiomegaly in MIMIC-CXR as a case study, RSA compares repository labels with radiologist-reviewed image annotations, characterizes disagreement sources, and builds a curated cohort for deployment-oriented evaluation. Repository-derived cardiomegaly labels showed near-zero agreement with expert image-level assessment, identifying only 1% of expert-confirmed cases. Most discrepancies resulted from non-mention rather than explicit report negation, with expert-confirmed cardiomegaly identified in nearly half of studies assigned a repository-derived No Finding label. Using the resulting expert-curated cohort, a DenseNet121 model achieved a test ROC-AUC of 0.853. These findings show that repository labels may not reliably represent image-level truth and highlight supervision auditing as a critical step for developing trustworthy medical imaging AI.

Retinal fundus images frequently exhibit multiple co-occurring pathologies, yet standard deep learning classifiers apply static, identical computation to every image regardless of the underlying disease distribution. We propose a novel architecture that resolves this via sparse conditional computation, pairing a Guided Context Gating (GCG) spatial attention front-end with a sparsely-routed Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) block operating over feature tokens. Crucially, this routing yields an interpretable, data-driven decomposition. Expert allocation is significantly disease-dependent (p < 0.001), with the healthy Normal state and morphologically distinct pathologies (e.g., ERM, AMD) isolating to dedicated experts. On a five-class, patient-disjoint 5-fold cross-validation benchmark, our model achieves 0.912 +/- 0.008 macro AUC and 0.653 +/- 0.014 macro F1. Furthermore, Grad-CAM++ and post-MoE t-SNE visualizations confirm that expert routing aligns with localized lesions and geometrically maps co-occurring cases between their constituent clusters, positioning sparse MoE as an interpretable approach to multi-disease retinal screening.

Internal safety scores judge a prompt before any text is generated, and they are validated by how well they separate harmful prompts from benign ones. That separation is then read as evidence that the score will also catch the attacks that succeed. Harmful intent is a property of the prompt. Jailbreak success is an outcome produced later by a particular target model, decoding policy, and judge. A filter tuned on a score that measures the wrong quantity spends its false positive budget on attacks that would have failed anyway. In this paper we audit that inference. Attention based measurements are usually read from prompt dependent locations, so a wrapper changes both the content being judged and the place the signal is taken from. We therefore introduce Active Attention Probing, which supplies a fixed content independent measurement coordinate. We pair every base goal with a plain and a wrapped version and generate real completions from the target models. On Llama, wrapping raises harmful generation from 0.05 to 0.27 while harmful intent AUROC falls from 0.936 to 0.803, so the attacks grow more dangerous while the prompts look safer to the score. Among wrapped harmful prompts the outcome AUROC is 0.220, which places the attacks that succeeded below the attacks that failed. Rare token, passive, and detector derived channels reproduce the reversal on the same matched design, and the reversal itself persists across three target models, seven attack families, and two independent judges. Distribution shift then degrades calibration and threshold transfer before it degrades ranking.

Perioperative risk prediction models are often limited by narrow surgical populations, incomplete intraoperative data, poor calibration, and limited interpretability. We present a domain-structured ensemble framework for perioperative outcome prediction using routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) data. Predictors are organized into patient-related, surgery-related, and anesthetics-related domains. Domain-specific gradient boosting models generate independent risk estimates that are integrated through a logistic regression meta-learner. We demonstrate the framework using postoperative delirium (POD) in a case-control sample of 5,386 surgical encounters (2,693 cases, 2,693 controls) from a statewide health information exchange. POD required both delirium-related ICD codes and a positive Confusion Assessment Method screening within seven postoperative days; patients with preexisting dementia were excluded. The stacked meta-learner achieved AUROC 0.899 (95% CI: 0.891-0.906), precision-recall AUC 0.881, and Brier score 0.126, compared with AUROC 0.849 for the best single-stage model. Domain ablation showed improved discrimination and calibration over a surgery-only model (AUROC 0.879, Brier 0.140). Temporal validation on held-out post-2017 data yielded AUROC 0.915. Calibration was excellent, with intercept -0.006 (95% CI: -0.083 to 0.070) and slope 1.035 (95% CI: 0.982 to 1.088). Decision curve analysis, corrected for case-control sampling, showed positive net benefit across clinically plausible thresholds. The modular framework supports alternative outcomes, extension of predictor domains, and dynamic risk updating, providing a scalable foundation for interpretable, calibration-aware perioperative clinical decision support.

Outlier detection in decentralized data environments is a challenging task for many machine learning implementations, particularly in settings where data cannot be shared. Recently, there have been advances in federated outlier detection, some of which are based on the use of autoencoder networks. The introduction of attention mechanisms to autoencoders boosts their efficiency. However, the application of attention-based models in federated learning remains underdeveloped due to the absence of proper aggregation functions for these types of networks. In our work, we propose two novel aggregation functions tailored for attention-based autoencoders, which better preserve the learned information stored within the memory modules of these networks. We evaluated our approach on the KDDCUP10 dataset, and we showed that the proposed methods achieve up to 2.9% and 5.1% better results for F1 score and AUC ROC respectively when compared to traditional autoencoders.

Conformal changepoint localization turns any score into a confidence set for the changepoint with finite-sample coverage. Coverage is universal; efficiency is not. The oracle score is a likelihood ratio, so practical scores estimate density ratios, and set length deteriorates under heavy tails, skewness, and distribution shift, where no length guarantee applies. We propose ARC (Augmented-Rank Conformalization), a family of scores depending on the data only through within-segment ranks: rank-CUSUM location and scale channels, their fixed combinations, and a lightweight neural score frozen after synthetic training. Every ARC score inherits finite-sample coverage for every frozen weight configuration, including random initialization and mistraining. The main result is an efficiency transfer theorem: the entire ARC confidence set is almost surely invariant under strictly increasing marginal transforms, so the set length distribution depends on the data pair only through its rank structure, and lengths certified once hold verbatim across its monotone orbit, whereas a plug-in score's length changes with every re-expression. Across different rank structures lengths do change, and are reported as such. Classical rank-test theory positions ARC as targeting the optimal invariant score at bounded cost. Simulations confirm nominal coverage for all scores, including sabotaged networks, identical sets under monotone transforms where plug-in scores inflate, and smooth degradation where plug-in sets become vacuous; on the well-log benchmark ARC localizes annotated shifts to three to five candidates and flags misfit by an empty set. Two boundaries are stated rather than hidden: serial dependence destroys exactness, and trend-type alternatives lie outside the piecewise-exchangeable model.

Prediction intervals for multi-modal regression with tabular variables, text, images, or other input sources are difficult to calibrate when those sources disagree or one is missing. A single global quantile averages these regimes together instead of calibrating to the modality pattern observed at test time. We address this through a modality-aware conformal calibration layer. The layer trains or reuses one predictor per modality, computes a disagreement score from their predictions, and uses that score in split conformal calibration under a strict split protocol. We use the score in two complementary ways. First, a continuous disagreement-scaled method reallocates interval width across examples while preserving the usual marginal split-conformal guarantee. Second, a Mondrian (stratified) method calibrates within groups defined by disagreement or modality availability fixed before calibration, giving group guarantees under joint exchangeability of the calibration and test examples. Across four multi-modal datasets, the disagreement-scaled layer matches or improves the marginal conformal baseline in 59 of 60 paired runs for interval continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and in 52 of 60 for interval width, while keeping empirical coverage near the 95% target. In stress tests with missing modalities, mask-matched recalibration recovers up to 19.5 percentage points of coverage in the hardest fixed-mask regime. The result is a simple, model-agnostic reliability layer for multi-modal regression systems. A project page is available at https://unco3892.github.io/modality-aware-conformal.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have found successful deployment in numerous vision perception systems. However, their susceptibility to adversarial attacks has prompted concerns regarding their practical applications, specifically in the context of autonomous driving. Existing defenses often suffer from cost inefficiency, rendering their deployment impractical for resource-constrained applications. In this work, we propose an efficient and effective adversarial attack detection scheme leveraging the multi-task perception within a complex vision system. Adversarial perturbations are detected by the inconsistencies between the inference outputs of multiple vision tasks, e.g., object detection and instance segmentation. To this end, we developed a consistency score metric to measure the inconsistency between vision tasks. Next, we designed an approach to select the best model pairs for detecting inconsistencies effectively. Finally, we evaluated our defense against PGD attacks across multiple vision models on the BDD100k validation dataset. The experimental results demonstrated that our defense achieved a ROC-AUC performance of 99.9% detection within the considered attacker model.

Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends. We evaluated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models using 190 weekly observations of publicly available Ontario COVID-19 case counts from January 2020 to October 2023. Rolling-origin time-series cross-validation preserved temporal order during model tuning and evaluation. Performance was assessed across three operating dimensions: responsiveness following selected turning points, forecast horizons of one to six weeks, and the amount of historical training data. We also developed Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging (MLAMA), a non-negative performance-weighted ensemble with weights that vary by forecast horizon and responsiveness setting. Retrospective comparisons showed that ARIMA adapted rapidly after turning points but its normalized error increased at longer horizons. Random forest and XGBoost were less responsive initially but maintained more stable normalized error over longer horizons. For two-week forecasts at the end of the study period, training on the most recent data outperformed using longer historical periods, particularly for XGBoost. MLAMA achieved the lowest normalized mean absolute percentage error across most forecast horizons and ranked among the best-performing methods across responsiveness settings. These findings support selecting forecasting models according to operating conditions rather than relying on a single universally preferred approach. MLAMA provides a practical framework for combining complementary statistical and machine-learning forecasts. The accompanying Python package is currently maintained in a private repository while software validation and reproducibility testing are completed.

Models trained by empirical risk minimization on data containing spurious correlations achieve high average accuracy while failing on subpopulations where the correlation does not hold. Existing methods for identifying the affected samples without group annotations rely on signals from early training, which requires locating the epoch at which to intervene, a hyperparameter typically selected using group-labeled validation data. We show that a usable signal is available after convergence, when loss no longer distinguishes the two populations. Samples consistent with the spurious correlation are classified by a shared rule, while the remaining samples are fit through configurations specific to individual inputs and are correspondingly more fragile. Applying a fixed perturbation to a converged model's inputs flips the predictions of the latter far more often than the former. The resulting procedure requires two forward passes per training sample, no group annotations at any stage, and no early-stopping epoch. Using the detected samples to rebalance training raises worst-group accuracy on Waterbirds from 57.3% to 80.8%, against 85.8% with ground-truth group labels.