Clinical Risk Prediction

Ask about this topic

Momentum

21 papers in the last four weeks, up 600% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28
View on map

Latest papers 148

All topics
CardsList
Aug 3, 2026cs.CV

Self-supervised DXA representations encode multi-system disease risk, biological aging and heritability

Whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans are routinely acquired to measure bone density and regional body composition, leaving their spatial structure largely unused. Here, we show that self-supervised learning (SSL) can convert raw DXA images into representations of systemic health. We introduce LeDXA, a vision model based on a joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) that learns by predicting latent representations rather than reconstructing pixels. Trained from scratch on 11,540 unlabeled Human Phenotype Project scans, LeDXA was evaluated internally and on 47,400 external UK Biobank (UKBB) scans. It improved cross-cohort prediction of prevalent diseases and biomarkers beyond scanner-derived DXA measurements and DINOv3, a state-of-the-art general-purpose model, despite approximately 150,000-fold fewer training images and nearly 40-fold fewer parameters. Over a median 4.3-year UKBB follow-up, LeDXA improved incident disease prediction over tabular DXA measures, with the largest gains for hip and knee arthrosis and type 2 diabetes. For hip arthrosis, 66% of incident cases occurred in the highest-risk quartile versus 41% for tabular measures. Its representations predicted chronological age externally (r = 0.88; mean absolute error = 2.90 years), and the biological-age gap tracked broader disease burden and a 45% higher mortality hazard in the oldest-appearing quartile. The gap also decreased in women after starting hormone-replacement therapy, suggesting it may be modifiable. Genome-wide associations recovered mostly known body-composition and bone-density loci, and LeDXA embeddings were more heritable than DINOv3's. These findings reveal prognostic information in DXA images that conventional readouts discard, learnable with relatively little data and modest compute.

Gil Sasson, Zachary Levine, Smadar Shilo +9

Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel. · Gray Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel. · The Jesse Z and Sara Lea Shafer Institute for Endocrinology and Diabetes, National Center for Childhood Diabetes, Schneider Children’s Medical Center of Israel, Petah Tikva, Israel. +5

Medical ImagingMedical Image Representation LearningSelf-Supervised Visual Representation LearningClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 31, 2026cs.LG

What Is Missing in Surgical Risk Stratification and Outcome Prediction: A Scoping Review of End-to-End Machine Learning Approaches

Postoperative adverse events, including mortality and morbidity, remain a major global burden, many of which are preventable through early identification of high-risk patients and targeted perioperative care. Accurate risk stratification is therefore essential. With the growing availability of large-scale electronic health records (EHRs), machine learning (ML) provides a data-driven approach to model complex clinical patterns. However, existing studies vary widely in design, and methodological practices remain fragmented. This scoping review characterizes ML pipelines for surgical risk stratification and outcome prediction using EHR data. We reviewed 190 studies covering the ML workflow, including data preprocessing, algorithm selection, model evaluation, and explainability. Most studies relied on single-center private datasets with limited data modalities, while the scarcity of open-access surgical datasets constrained reproducibility and generalizability. Reporting of key preprocessing steps, including missing data handling, feature selection, and class imbalance, was often incomplete. Conventional ML models and simple neural networks predominated, whereas deep learning and multimodal approaches remained uncommon. Benchmark datasets and standardized evaluation protocols were largely absent, hindering cross-study comparisons. Only about one-third of studies incorporated explainability methods. This review identifies methodological gaps limiting clinically robust postoperative ML tools and provides a structured reference to support more rigorous, reproducible, and clinically meaningful ML development for perioperative care.

Yizhi Dong, Yuhe Ke, Hairil Rizal Abdullah +4

Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117549 · Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore 169608 · Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857 +5

Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 30, 2026cs.LG

KAISEN: Reproducible Subgroup Fairness Auditing for Clinical Risk Models

Clinical risk models routinely achieve strong aggregate performance while producing materially different error rates across patient subgroups. Audit pipelines have been proposed to catch this, but their components are rarely stress-tested, so it is unclear which parts of an audit can be trusted and under what conditions. We present KAISEN, a five-phase audit pipeline covering subgroup stratification, disparity measurement, mechanism diagnostics, post-hoc mitigation, and drift monitoring, evaluated to the point of failure on a synthetic benchmark of 16 disease tasks, 15 social-determinant axes from Healthy People 2030, and three prespecified intersections. Four findings follow. (i) Significance tracks each axis's gap against its own minimum detectable effect: rank correlation between significance count and raw equalized-odds difference (EOD) across the 15 axes is rho = 0.56, rising to rho = 0.78 once EOD is standardized by that floor. (ii) Per-group threshold optimization reduces EOD in 48 of 48 held-out runs (paired delta = -0.285, 95% CI [-0.313, -0.252]), while group-wise Platt scaling -- the better calibrator -- behaves as a coin flip on EOD (19 of 48 runs improved, 95% CI [0.26, 0.55]) with mean effect near zero, so what an audit should report is the variance, not the average. (iii) The mechanism diagnostic classifies 144 of 144 controlled cases correctly but recovers none of 48 model-driven cases under proxy misspecification, with no signal that it failed. (iv) CUSUM failures and false alarms track cohort realization far more than disease: at the reference threshold, all 27 false alarms and 7 of 8 missed shifts come from different seeds (chi-squared p = 0.002), so a threshold tuned on one cohort fails to transfer. All results are synthetic with known ground truth and do not establish clinical validity. Code, artifacts, and scripts reproducing every number are released.

Sparsh Roy, Samuel Girmachew, Nishita Chavan

Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Hopewell Valley Central High School · East Brunswick High School

Distribution Shift RobustnessAlgorithmic FairnessClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 30, 2026cs.CL

Improving Mental Health Screening and Early Risk Detection in Spanish

Early detection of mental health disorders is often limited by the lack of specialized resources in Spanish and the difficulty of analyzing long histories of social media posts. This paper addresses these challenges through three main contributions. First, we introduce three Spanish foundational models specifically adapted to the mental health domain through domain-specific pre-training. Second, we propose Incremental Context Expansion (ICE), an automatic relabeling methodology designed for early detection. ICE identifies the point at which cumulative messages provide enough evidence of a disorder, generating more informative training samples. Third, we provide a set of fine-tuned models using the samples generated with the ICE methodology for early risk detection tasks. Our results on three Spanish benchmarks show that combining these specialized models with ICE improves the state-of-the-art, reducing detection latency while maintaining high performance. All models are publicly available.

Andreu Casamayor-Segarra, Vicent Ahuir, Antonio Molina-Marco +1

VRAIN: Valencian Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence Universitat Polit`ecnica de Val`encia Val`encia, Spain · VRAIN: Valencian Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence Universitat Polit`ecnica de Val`encia ValgrAI: Valencian Graduate School and Research Network of Artificial Intelligence Val`encia, Spain

Social Media AnalysisMental HealthDomain-Adaptive PretrainingClinical NLPClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 28, 2026cs.LG

Explainable AI for Chronic Kidney Disease Prediction Using Simulated Federated Learning

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), characterized by the gradual loss of kidney function, remains a significant public health challenge. Early detection is crucial for preventing severe complications and enhancing patient outcomes. In this study, Federated Learning (FL) with a VotingClassifier was used to predict CKD using a clinical dataset, where Random Forest, AdaBoost, and XGBoost were utilized to compare and identify the best-fitting model for the global server. Additionally, GridSearchCV was applied to optimize the models' performance on the client's side. To enhance model transparency and trustworthiness, explainable AI (XAI) techniques were incorporated to interpret the prediction mechanisms. The global model's average accuracy was 99%, highlighting the potential of interpretable FL models in supporting early CKD diagnosis and advancing data-driven healthcare solutions.

Md Zahid Hasan Ontor, Md Al Amin, Anik Dev Nath +1

Dept. of Software Engineering, Daffodil International University, Daffodil Smart City (DSC), Birulia, Savar, Dhaka 1216, Bangladesh · Dept. of Electrical & Electronics Engineering, Ahsanullah University of Science & Technology, Tejgaon, Dhaka, Bangladesh · Dept. of Information, Communication & Technology, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Santosh, Tangail 1902, Dhaka

Clinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 27, 2026cs.AI

Myopia Prevention and Control 3.0: Artificial Intelligence--Driven Risk Stratification, Proactive Monitoring, and Personalized Intervention

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), digital sensing, and ubiquitous computing has created an unprecedented opportunity to transform myopia prevention from a reactive, population-based model into a proactive, precision-driven one. Despite evidence that half the world's population will be myopic by 2050, conventional approaches---school-based vision screening (Phase 1.0) and evidence-based risk factor management (Phase 2.0)---have proven insufficient. We review the emergence of Myopia Prevention and Control 3.0, defined by AI integration across three interconnected domains forming a closed-loop pipeline: (1) AI-driven risk stratification predicting individual-level risk through machine learning on multimodal data; (2) AI-enabled proactive monitoring via wearables, smartphones, and school screening networks; and (3) AI-powered personalized intervention with closed-loop feedback. We critically evaluate evidence across each stage, discuss challenges in data quality, model validation, ethics, and equity, and outline future directions including multimodal foundation models, digital twins, and causal machine learning.

Tieniu Wang, Cangzhu Huang, Qianhui Li

Shanghai Nile Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. · Beijing Tanyuan Academy of Intelligent Sensing

HealthcareClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 25, 2026stat.AP

Fracture Risk Prediction in Adults Over 50 Years Old Using DXA and EHR: Comparison of Traditional and Machine Learning Models in Two Large Cohorts

Accurate fracture risk prediction is important for osteoporosis management, but commonly used clinical tools may not fully use information available in electronic health records (EHRs) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) reports. We developed and externally validated time-to-event fracture prediction models among adults aged 50 years or older with clinically obtained DXA reports in 2 US health care systems. The development cohort was derived from NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center and the external validation cohort from the Indiana Network for Patient Care. Predictors included demographics, lifestyle factors, prior fracture, comorbidities, medication exposures, osteoporosis treatment history, and DXA-derived T-scores extracted from radiology reports. The outcome was time from index DXA to first incident fragility fracture identified from structured diagnosis codes. We evaluated penalized Cox regression, random survival forest, gradient-boosting survival, and XGBoost survival models using 2 prespecified predictor settings and compared discrimination with clinically reported FRAX major osteoporotic fracture probabilities. The development cohort included 11,510 adults, of whom 858 sustained incident fragility fractures; the external validation cohort included 1,932 adults, of whom 180 sustained fractures. In internal validation, the expanded Cox model achieved a mean Harrell C-index of 0.779, compared with 0.653 for FRAX. In external validation, the corresponding Cox model achieved a Harrell C-index of 0.714, compared with 0.590 for FRAX; gradient-boosting survival had the highest external discrimination (0.725). EHR- and DXA-enhanced models showed better discrimination than clinically reported FRAX scores in this DXA-tested population, but calibration assessment, prospective evaluation, and implementation workflow assessment are needed before clinical use.

Jiahe Qian, Hao Dai, Kunyu Yu +6

Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, USA · Department of Biostatistics & Health Data Science, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indiana, USA · Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Indiana University, Indiana, USA +2

Clinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 25, 2026cs.AI

RareLens: Towards End-to-End Rare Disease Care via Aligning Divergent Large Language Model Reasoning

Rare diseases represent one of the most challenging settings for clinical decision-making, where heterogeneous presentations, sparse evidence and limited expertise create persistent uncertainty throughout the care pathway. Although artificial intelligence could help, existing systems largely address isolated tasks, particularly diagnosis, and usually rely on downstream investigations rather than information available at initial presentation. Here we show that clinical AI performance under uncertainty can be improved not by scaling a single model, but by exploiting the diversity of multiple imperfect reasoning systems. Across heterogeneous large language models, we identify divergent reasoning trajectories with complementary error patterns and develop RareLens, which learns to reconcile these perspectives into actionable decisions across four stages of rare disease care: risk screening, diagnosis, treatment planning and prognosis prediction. Built on RarelensBench, a real-world dataset of 157,525 cases spanning all 33 Orphanet categories and more than 7,000 conditions, RareLens outperformed every frontier model tested, including GPT-5, DeepSeek-R1, Claude-3.7-Sonnet and Gemini-2.5-Pro, across all stages. It achieved an area under the curve of 0.917 for screening and top-1 accuracies of 65.5% and 89.8% for diagnosis and treatment. In an external evaluation involving 1,287 cases and 23 physicians, autonomous RareLens and physicians assisted by RareLens both outperformed unaided physicians, while demonstrating that effective human-AI collaboration requires more than simply providing model outputs. These findings establish divergent model reasoning as an exploitable source of information and suggest a general strategy for building AI systems that operate reliably under high clinical uncertainty.

Xi Chen, Hongru Zhou, Shiyu Feng +24

Sports Medicine Center, Department of Orthopedics and Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China · Center for Cleft Lip and Palate Treatment, Plastic Surgery Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China · School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen (CUHKSZ), Shenzhen, China +13

Rare Disease DiagnosisHealthcareClinical Decision-MakingLanguage Model EnsemblesClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 25, 2026cs.SE

Metamorphic Testing for Clinical ML Models: A Framework Proposal and Pilot Study

Machine learning models for clinical prediction tasks, such as in-hospital mortality and sepsis onset, routinely achieve high AUROC scores. However, AUROC measures ranking performance rather than clinical sensibility. A model may rank patients correctly overall while predicting a lower mortality risk when a patient's SOFA score worsens, contradicting established medical knowledge. This paper proposes applying metamorphic testing (MT) to clinical machine learning models to evaluate behavioral correctness without requiring ground-truth labels for individual predictions. We design a catalog of 12 candidate metamorphic relations (MRs) for three ICU prediction tasks using the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets, with each MR grounded in an authoritative clinical guideline. We further propose a five-layer validation strategy to ensure that MRs are clinically sound before deployment. As a feasibility study, we evaluate the approach on the UCI Heart Disease dataset. Although the three clinical models achieve strong predictive performance (AUROC = 0.849-0.900), they exhibit MT violation rates ranging from 27% to 87% across five pilot MRs. An injected-fault experiment further shows that a sign-negation error in a blood pressure feature remains undetected by AUROC but increases the MT violation rate by 31-67 percentage points. These findings suggest that metamorphic testing provides a valuable complement to conventional performance metrics for assessing the behavioral correctness of clinical prediction models.

Jie JW Wu, Feiyu E, Bo Chen

Michigan Technological University Houghton, MI, USA

Metamorphic TestingClinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 24, 2026cs.LG

Dysphagia Risk Stratification in Head and Neck Cancer via Two-Stage PRO-Clinical Stacking

Dysphagia is a debilitating late effect of head and neck cancer (HNC) treatment, yet timely identification of at-risk patients remains challenging in survivorship care. Definitive assessment relies on videofluoroscopic imaging, as captured by the Dynamic Imaging Grade of Swallowing Toxicity (CTCAE-DIGEST), which, while validated, requires specialized equipment, trained personnel, and significant patient burden, limiting its routine use in surveillance. Patient-reported outcomes (PROs), by contrast, are low-cost, scalable, and easily collected at any clinical encounter, making them an attractive alternative signal for identifying patients who may warrant further evaluation. However, a clear clinical framework for translating PRO responses into actionable interventions is still evolving. In particular, uncertainty remains regarding when a patient's self-reported symptom burden should prompt escalation of care. This study addresses this gap by formulating a single-visit PRO-clinical prediction framework and introducing a clinically interpretable two-stage stacking model to predict swallowing impairment risk using PRO responses and structured clinical variables, without requiring videofluoroscopic imaging. The proposed framework quantifies the independent contributions of patient-reported symptoms and clinical factors within a unified and interpretable risk assessment model. Our findings demonstrate that individual MDADI responses contain predictive information beyond that captured by composite or global summary scores, while interpretability analyses reveal symptom patterns and clinical risk factors associated with swallowing impairment. Together, these results support the use of structured PRO-clinical integration as a practical, imaging-free approach for dysphagia risk stratification in HNC survivorship.

Siyuan Zhao, Eric Ababio Anyimadu, Zachary G. Brumm +5

Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA · Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA · Department of Otolaryngology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA +1

Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 18, 2026cs.LG

A Framework for Early Sepsis Prediction via Self-Supervised (JEPA) and Federated Representation Learning

Early sepsis prediction from electronic health records is challenged by irregular sampling, high missingness, and class imbalance. We systematically compare four modeling paradigms -- self-supervised Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) via masked latent prediction, self-supervised VICReg (variance-invariance-covariance regularization) with two-view augmentation, semi-supervised fine-tuning of a VICReg-pretrained encoder, and supervised Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) -- alongside raw-feature baselines. All models share a common preprocessing pipeline of hourly binning with forward-fill imputation applied to 7 biomarkers selected via sparsity analysis from the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best model (JEPA + XGBoost + mean pooling) achieves AUPRC 0.636 at the time of onset (H0), approaching the SupMix benchmark (0.667) while using 83% fewer biomarkers. The Tier 1 pipeline -- VICReg pretraining followed by semi-supervised fine-tuning and XGBoost -- achieves AUPRC 0.510 at H0, a 3.1×\times improvement over the raw-feature baseline (0.165) and a 7.6% improvement over the end-to-end supervised TCN (0.474). Crucially, the fine-tuned VICReg encoder exhibits the most temporally persistent representations, degrading only 16.8% from H0 to H10 compared to 47.5% for supervised TCN and 65.3% for JEPA, demonstrating that self-supervised pretraining with task-aware fine-tuning yields features that are both sharp near onset and robust across prediction horizons.

Umair bin Mansoor, Munaf Rashid, Roomi Naqvi

Electrical Engg. Department, DHA Suffa University, Karachi, Pakistan · Salim Habib University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan · Intel Foundry Services, Intel, Tempe, Arizona, United States

Self-Supervised Pre-TrainingJoint-Embedding Predictive ArchitectureClinical PredictionLongitudinal EHR ModelingElectronic Health RecordsClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

CardioMeta: Calibrated Multi-Task Prediction of Diabetes, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease Across Population and EHR Data

Cardiometabolic diseases remain among the most persistent drivers of preventable morbidity because diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease frequently co-occur and share metabolic, vascular, demographic, and behavioral determinants. Existing machine learning studies for chronic disease prediction often emphasize discrimination on a single dataset, while underreporting label leakage, calibration, temporal robustness, external transportability, and subgroup reliability. This paper presents CardioMeta, a calibrated multi-task framework for joint prediction of diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease across population survey and electronic health record (EHR) data. The study uses NHANES for population-level model development and temporal validation, and MIMIC-IV for EHR-domain evaluation under substantial distribution shift. To reduce circular label reconstruction, the primary analysis excludes disease-defining variables from the corresponding prediction heads, while a full-clinical feature setting is retained only as sensitivity analysis. CardioMeta combines a shared cardiometabolic encoder with disease-specific gated heads and post-hoc probability calibration. In the leakage-reduced temporal validation setting, the model achieved a macro-AUROC of 0.839, macro-AUPRC of 0.536, macro-F1 of 0.614, and expected calibration error of 0.024, with modest but consistent improvements over strong gradient-boosting and neural tabular baselines. External evaluation on MIMIC-IV showed clear degradation under domain shift, while limited fine-tuning partially recovered performance. The findings indicate that the principal value of multi-task cardiometabolic modeling lies not in inflated accuracy, but in reproducible leakage control, calibrated probabilities, and transparent reliability reporting across heterogeneous healthcare data sources.

S M Asif Hossain, Ruksat Khan Shayoni, M. F. Mridha +1

School of Computing, Wichita State University, Kansas, USA · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, American International University-Bangladesh, Bangladesh · School of Computer Science and Engineering, The University of Aizu, Aizuwakamatsu, Japan

Multi-Task LearningModel CalibrationClinical Risk PredictionCross-Dataset Generalization
AskPDF
Jul 16, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable and Calibrated Classification of Clinical Data Using Supervised Feature Binarization

Black-box models limit the adoption of artificial intelligence in medicine because their predictions are difficult to interpret and reproduce. We present a statistically grounded framework for interpretable, rule-based clinical classification using the Bernoulli Naïve Bayes (BNB) model. Supervised chi-square-guided binarization converts continuous variables into binary indicators by selecting thresholds that maximize association with the clinical outcome within the training folds, which allows BNB to operate on continuous medical data without sacrificing transparency. On three benchmark datasets, Pima Indians Diabetes, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Heart Failure Prediction, the framework reached areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.800, 0.984, and 0.919, respectively. Probabilistic reliability was assessed with a leakage-safe cross-validated calibration analysis reporting Brier score and calibration intercept and slope, and post-hoc beta calibration improved probability calibration across datasets. These results indicate that an interpretable, statistically motivated framework can perform comparably to more complex models while providing explicit decision rules expressed in clinical units and calibrated risk estimates. A complete worked example further shows that model inference can be reproduced from a printed reference table using only basic arithmetic, without software or proprietary tools, supporting trustworthy and auditable use of artificial intelligence in clinical settings.

Antony Garcia, Adrian Noriega, Gabrielle Britton +1

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA 01609, USA · Facultad de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá, Panama City 0819-07289, Panama · Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA +4

Interpretable MLClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 16, 2026cs.RO

Assessing Physical Frailty and Fall-Risk Indicators with Social Robots: An in situ Evaluation with Older Adults

Frailty assessments are crucial to evaluate the risk of adverse events and the health and social care needs of older adults, yet their administration remains resource-intensive and typically relies on coarse clinical outcomes, such as task completion times, which may overlook biomechanical indicators of functional decline. To address this, we present a robotic framework that guides older adults through standardised frailty and fall-risk tests while capturing clinical scores and additional frailty-related metrics, offering a deeper insight into a user's condition. The system uses a Behaviour Tree architecture that coordinates perception, decision-making, interaction, and measurement modules. Using vision-based skeleton tracking, the robot evaluates established clinical tests, including the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and the Timed Up and Go (TUG). The framework was co-designed with healthcare professionals and evaluated in situ during six months in a rehabilitation centre's research lab with N=81 older adults. Robot-derived measurements were compared against therapist assessments and clinical reference instruments, including a gait analysis walkway and an inertial measurement unit (IMU). Results showed excellent agreement for most test completion times and gait-related parameters (ICC>0.9ICC > 0.9). And, substantial agreement for the overall SPPB score comparing the robot and the therapist (k=0.67k = 0.67) and moderate agreement comparing the robot and the IMU (k=0.55k=0.55). The findings highlight that social robots can provide reliable and objective frailty assessments in healthcare settings while enabling the collection of relevant mobility indicators beyond conventional outcomes.

Aniol Civit, Antonio Andriella, Alba Martínez +4

Institut de Robòtica i Informàtica Industrial, CSIC-UPC, Llorens i Artigas 4-6, 08028 Barcelona, Spain · Parc Sanitari Pere Virgili, Area of Intermediate Care, Barcelona, Spain · RE-FiT Barcelona Research Group, Vall d’Hebron Institute of Research and Parc Sanitari Pere Virgili, Barcelona, Spain +1

Assistive RoboticsHuman-Robot InteractionClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 15, 2026cs.LG

TEDDY: A Pediatric Foundation Model for Risk Forewarning from ICD-Coded Diagnostic Histories

Pediatric electronic health records capture developmentally structured clinical trajectories, yet their potential for generative healthcare foundation models remains largely unexplored. Here we present TEDDY (Temporal Event Decoder for Disease in Youth), a 1.84-million-parameter decoder transformer trained on approximately 73 million ICD-10 diagnoses from 1.6 million children at a single pediatric institution. TEDDY models longitudinal diagnosis trajectories and visit timing. Predictions were made before visit codes were revealed, limited to first occurrences, and evaluated against sex- and age-matched controls. Across 797 disease-onset prediction tasks spanning 16 ICD-10 chapters, TEDDY achieved a median AUC of 72.0%, outperforming same-data DenseNet (50.0%), CNN (57.2%), RNN (60.1%), and LSTM (62.7%) baselines on 96-99% of tasks. Performance held across sex and age and was strongest among lower-prevalence diagnoses; 202 of the 225 rarest conditions (90%) had 95% confidence intervals above chance. Predictive signal remained detectable more than two years before first recorded diagnosis, with median AUCs of 59.7% in the unrestricted analysis and 64.4% in a fixed-cohort sensitivity analysis. In asthma and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder benchmarks, AUCs were 79.3% and 84.7%, compared with 62.7% and 71.7% for the strongest comparators, including a general-purpose language model three orders of magnitude larger. Visit-timing predictions had a 3.0-day mean absolute restricted mean survival-time error over 365 days, although median and long-tail return intervals remained miscalibrated. Together, these results establish pediatric diagnostic histories as a substrate for compact generative models supporting broad, rare-disease, and long-horizon risk forecasting without population-scale data or billion-parameter models.

Matthew Brady Neeley, Jorge Botas, Johnathan Jia +5

Baylor College of Medicine

Clinical PredictionLongitudinal EHR ModelingElectronic Health RecordsTime-Series Foundation ModelsClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 13, 2026cs.CV

Longitudinal Multi-View Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

Accurate breast cancer risk prediction from screening mammography is critical for enabling personalized screening intervals and early detection. Recent deep learning methods have shown the value of longitudinal data and explicit temporal alignment. However, existing approaches either perform explicit alignment using a single mammographic view or model multiple views without explicit longitudinal alignment, limiting their ability to exploit the complementary spatial-temporal information used in clinical practice. To address this gap, we propose LMV-Net, a longitudinal multi-view breast cancer risk prediction model that jointly analyzes anatomically complementary CC and MLO views within an explicitly aligned longitudinal framework. We evaluate our approach on the public EMBED and CSAW-CC datasets, comparing it to state-of-the-art breast cancer risk prediction methods. Our model consistently outperforms existing approaches in overall risk prediction performance and across different breast density and cancer subgroups. Importantly, these improvements highlight the potential of longitudinal multi-view modeling to enhance risk stratification, paving the way for future work on personalized screening, earlier identification of high-risk patients, and more efficient screening resource allocation. The code is available at https://github.com/sot176/LMV-Net.

Solveig Thrun, Zijun Sun, Suaiba A. Salahuddin +5

Department of Physics and Technology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway · SPKI The Norwegian Centre for Clinical Artificial Intelligence, University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø, Norway · Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway +1

Breast CancerLongitudinal Medical Image AnalysisMulti-View LearningMammographyClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 12, 2026cs.LG

Evaluating Reliability in Machine Learning Models for Early Chronic Kidney Disease Prediction: A Systematic Review of Data Leakage and Predictor Stability

The early detection of Chronic Kidney Disease using machine learning has attracted significant interest in healthcare-related computer science. Despite rapid advancements in this field, many reported studies remain inconsistent and potentially misleading. A significant drawback is the lack of organized evaluation regarding methodological concerns. Key issues include data leakage, limited access to temporal patient records and inconsistency in reported clinical indicators. This research offers a systematic literature review of existing CKD prediction studies using interpretable machine learning techniques, where nineteen relevant studies were selected via systematic searches across major academic databases. To assess methodological reliability, this study introduces a structured taxonomy of information leakage and a quantitative leakage scoring framework to systematically evaluate reliability across CKD prediction studies. The analysis reveals a strong relationship between leakage and inflated performance. Here, High leakage-studies report an average accuracy of 95.48%, compared to 80.2% for leakage-free studies, reflecting an increase of approximately 15.28%. Furthermore, a cross-study feature stability analysis shows that only a small subset of predictors is consistently reproducible, with over 80% lacking reliability. Overall, the findings suggest that many reported performance improvements stem from methodological limitations rather than true predictive capability.

Mashrul Hossain, Nafesa Kibria, Fahim Shahriar

East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Data LeakageClinical PredictionScientific ReproducibilityClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 11, 2026cs.LG

Pitfalls of Administrative Censoring in Survival Models with Time-Indexed Inputs

Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data. They are widely used in clinical prediction, including cancer risk, disease progression, treatment response, and mortality. Recent models often rely on rich inputs collected at a specific clinical encounter, such as medical images, laboratory tests, electronic health record snapshots, or sensor measurements. In large retrospective datasets, these inputs are usually collected over many calendar years. As a result, they may contain clues about when they were acquired through changes in devices, protocols, documentation, patient mix, or clinical practice. This creates a potential failure mode when outcomes are observed only up to a fixed study end date. More recent records necessarily have less potential follow-up than older records. A model that can infer the record date from the input may therefore learn to predict how much follow-up was available rather than the patient's true risk of experiencing the event. We call this failure mode administrative-cutoff leakage. In this paper, we characterize when this leakage can occur, distinguish it from classical informative censoring and genuine temporal changes in risk, and propose practical ways to detect it. In simulations, we show that administrative-cutoff leakage can inflate fixed-horizon AUC and can also affect Harrell's C-index under realistic follow-up patterns. We then demonstrate the same behavior in a real mammography cohort. These results motivate a simple design principle for survival prediction: for an n-year prediction task, the dataset should provide at least n years of potential follow-up after the latest input date. Otherwise, the models may be subject to bias induced by administrative-cutoff leakage.

Yanqi Xu, Hui Dai, Carlos Fernandez-Granda +2

Center for Data Science, New York University · University of Chicagoy · 3NYU Grossman School of Medicine +1

Data LeakageSurvival AnalysisTemporal Data LeakageClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 10, 2026cs.LG

A Personalized Computational Framework for Assessing the Sufficiency of Partially Observed Data in Healthcare AI models

Achieving early and timely diagnosis and treatment for disease is a major challenge. Recent applications of machine learning (ML) algorithms trained on patient data have shown promise in many different settings for predicting the patient health state. A challenge often faced when applying these ML algorithms is that at any given time, not all clinical variables (features) needed as input to perform prediction tasks are available. We define the concept of full-feature-capacity (FFC) to refer to prediction performance when such algorithms make use of all features on which they were trained. We then introduce Feature Sufficiency Analysis (FSA) - an analysis for determining whether a subset of all clinical features needed by an AI model is sufficient to achieve FFC. FSA estimates the underlying distributions of missing variables conditioned on features that are available. FSA provides a patient-specific assessment of whether the existing set of measured features achieves FFC. If yes, then there is no need to acquire further inputs and a ML-based prediction. We provide two case studies: prediction of need for postoperative prolonged ventilation in patients recovering from heart surgery; 10-year mortality prediction in an outpatient cohort. We also demonstrate that FSA also provides a clinically interpretable feature-ranking methodology based on prediction sufficiency, identifies intrinsically hard-to-predict patient populations, and has the potential to perform cost-aware optimization for clinical data acquisition. FSA provides a generic computational approach for determining whether incomplete clinical information is sufficient to support trustworthy AI-assisted clinical decision-making, thereby facilitating the prospective deployment of healthcare AI systems across diverse clinical settings.

Qingchu Jin, Felistas Mazhude, Jamie B. Rabb +3

Roux Institute, Northeastern University, ME USA · MaineHealth Institute for Research, ME USA · MaineHealth, ME USA +3

Learning with Missing DataClinical Outcome PredictionClinical Decision-MakingClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 9, 2026cs.AI

Towards Precision Therapy in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Clinical-Reasoning LLM for Risk Stratification and Treatment Guidance

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy and a leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Current guidelines and staging systems provide coarse categories, but often miss within-stage heterogeneity and the clinical context in electronic medical records (EMRs). We present HCC-STAR (Hepatocellular Carcinoma Staging, Treatment And pRognosis), a clinically aligned large language model that reads routine EMR narratives and jointly outputs risk score-based staging, ranked guideline-consistent treatments with evidence-based rationales, and individualized survival estimates. We curated about 30,000 HCC cases from SEER and expanded them into EMR-style narrative training data using a clinician-validated, prompt-based augmentation workflow. On this corpus, we developed a knowledge-aligned reasoning framework optimized with a step-verifiable composite reward, moving beyond text-level memorization of clinical guidelines. In a multi-center cohort of 6,668 patients from 12 hospitals in China, HCC-STAR achieved state-of-the-art performance in treatment recommendation and risk stratification compared with clinical guidelines and competitive models, including GPT-5 and Gemini-2.5 Pro. Hypothetical overall-survival analysis showed a median survival of 51 months under adherence to HCC-STAR recommendations, compared with 29 and 32 months under BCLC and CNLC. In clinician-centric evaluations, blinded hepatobiliary specialists rated HCC-STAR's reasoning and evidence-based justifications as trustworthy. The model surpassed resident and attending physicians in treatment accuracy and helped physicians make more accurate decisions faster when used as an assistant. These findings support HCC-STAR as a reliable and verifiable decision-support system for risk stratification and precision therapy in HCC.

Peng Cui, Jitao Wang, Siyan Xue +41

Cancer Survival PredictionClinical Decision SupportClinical ReasoningOncologyMedical LLMsClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 9, 2026cs.LG

Federated Deep Learning for Privacy-Preserving Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

Cardiovascular disease risk prediction models often rely on data from a single institution or centrally pooled datasets. Extending these models across institutions could be limited by privacy regulations and constraints on sharing patient-level data. Federated learning enables collaborative model development without transferring sensitive patient data, but its application in healthcare remains challenging because datasets often differ in size, population characteristics, and outcome definitions. In this study, we present a federated deep learning approach for privacy-preserving cardiovascular disease risk prediction that integrates two population-based cohorts with different characteristics: Lifelines, including 148,230 participants meeting the study inclusion criteria with self-reported outcomes, and the Rotterdam Study, including a smaller cohort of 10,155 participants with digitally linked clinical outcomes. Model performance was primarily evaluated on the Rotterdam Study because of its complete follow-up. Deep survival models trained using federated learning achieved higher predictive performance than models trained locally without federation. For the Rotterdam Study, the C-statistic increased from 0.728 (95% CI: 0.717-0.739) to 0.739 (95% CI: 0.728-0.749). For Lifelines, the C-statistic increased from 0.783 (95% CI: 0.775-0.791) to 0.787 (95% CI: 0.780-0.792). These findings suggest that federated deep learning across heterogeneous cohorts can improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction while preserving the privacy of individual-level patient data.

Hyunho Mo, Djura Smits, Mahlet A. Birhanu +4

Department of Radiology & Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Dr. Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, 3015 GD, The Netherlands · 2Netherlands eScience Center, Matrix THREE, Science Park 402, Amsterdam, 1098 XH, The Netherlands · Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Dr. Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, 3015 GD, The Netherlands +2

Privacy-Preserving MLClinical Risk PredictionFederated LearningHeterogeneous Federated Learning
AskPDF
Jul 8, 2026cs.LG

Physical activities enable scalable foundation modelling for broad-spectrum health prediction

Wearable and mobile sensing technologies have demonstrated strong potential for health inference; however, most sensor models are designed for specific disease types, limiting their transferability across different health risks. Wearable foundation models offer a more generalizable approach in diverse health risk types. Nevertheless, most existing methods rely on high-frequency raw sensor data, raising concerns about privacy, computational overhead, and scalability across devices and populations. In this paper, we propose StepFM, a foundation model built solely on step counter data for broad-spectrum health prediction. Leveraging the ubiquity and low-dimensional nature of step data, StepFM provides a practical, privacy-preserving, and computation-efficient alternative to traditional sensor-based models. We design a scalable pre-training framework that captures temporal dynamics and behavioral patterns from large-scale step sequences, enabling transfer across more than 20 health risk prediction tasks spanning diverse devices, new regions, and novel disease types. Extensive experiments demonstrate that StepFM achieves strong performance compared to existing methods while maintaining robustness across heterogeneous settings. Furthermore, our analysis reveals interpretable and generalizable relationships between physical activity patterns and various health risks, offering new insights into activity-based health modeling. Our work establishes step-based sensing as a viable foundation for scalable and real-world health monitoring.

Zhenghuang Wu, Yuyao Zhu, Songlin Xu

Beihang University, Beijing, China · University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China

Wearable Health MonitoringTime-Series Foundation ModelsClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 6, 2026cs.CV

Cross-Contextual Vision-Language Adaptation with LoRA for Personalized Severe Adverse Event Detection in Clinical Wound Monitoring

Wound monitoring is a critical yet underserved clinical challenge, where timely identification of severe adverse events (SAEs) such as infection, tissue deterioration, and delayed healing can significantly impact patient outcomes. While vision-language models (VLMs) show strong multimodal reasoning, they often lack domain-specific grounding to integrate wound imagery with heterogeneous clinical information, and provide limited mechanisms for detecting cases that diverge from the training distribution. We present a multimodal framework for automated wound monitoring and SAE detection. Our approach leverages paired clinical notes and wound descriptions capturing visual characteristics such as appearance, surrounding skin condition, color changes, and signs of inflammation or healing progression, encoded through a dual-stream Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) framework built on a frozen BiomedCLIP backbone. We introduce a cross-contextual LoRA fusion mechanism enabling information exchange between clinical semantics and visual wound descriptors, producing context-aware multimodal representations without full model fine-tuning. To identify personalized SAEs, we propose a wound-specific out-of-distribution (OOD) detection framework combining semantic matching, visual typicality, caption-text alignment, and caption-visual alignment into a unified SAE (OOD) score. To capture healing dynamics, we incorporate covariate consistency and temporal drift penalties that leverage changes in wound characteristics across visits. Experiments on a longitudinal wound dataset collected through clinical visits show promising performance on both wound healing assessment and SAE detection, highlighting the potential of semantically enriched, temporally aware vision-language systems for clinical wound monitoring and early risk identification.

Aditi Naiknaware, Jian Sun, Aminreza Khandan +4

1San Diego State University · University of California, Los Angeles · University of California, Davis

VLM AdaptationLow-Rank AdaptationMedical VLMsOOD DetectionClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jul 6, 2026cs.CV

GlaKG: A Biomarker-Centric Fundus Knowledge Graph for Explainable Glaucoma Diagnosis and Risk Assessment

Glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide, yet most automated diagnosis systems rely on opaque deep-learning models that offer little clinical interpretability. We present GlaKG, a biomarker-centric fundus knowledge graph that integrates structural biomarkers, clinically grounded rules, and image features to produce traceable reasoning for glaucoma diagnosis and risk stratification. GlaKG encodes six entity types (Fundus Image, Optic Disc, Neural Rim, Pathology, Diagnosis, Risk Level), eight relation types, and 11 clinically validated rules into a unified graph, so that every prediction is accompanied by an explicit reasoning chain linking biomarker evidence to activated clinical rules. To keep knowledge-based reasoning strictly separate from label information, we adopt a post-processing fusion framework that combines ResNet50 image embeddings with a normalized KG reasoning-chain score via a tunable weight alpha, with all fitting confined to the training split. On a publicly available, AI-annotated fundus dataset, GlaKG reaches F1 = 0.9953 for binary glaucoma classification and 0.930 accuracy with 0.922 weighted F1 for four-class risk stratification; we report openly that the dataset's biomarker annotations are highly label-correlated, and therefore frame these figures as an upper bound attainable with clean structured biomarkers rather than as leakage-free image-only performance. Feature-importance analysis shows KG-derived and biomarker features contributing near-equally (51.1% vs. 48.9%), and the reasoning chain flags borderline cases by exposing low chain scores rather than failing silently. GlaKG's central contribution is therefore a clinically auditable reasoning framework that complements raw predictive performance by explicitly exposing the biomarker evidence and rule activations behind each decision.

Cheng Huang, Jia Zhang, Yi Jiang +7

University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center · 2Southern Methodist University · 3Nanyang Technological University +1

Medical Image AnalysisMedical DiagnosisFundus ImagingExplainable Medical Image AnalysisKnowledge GraphsClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jun 29, 2026cs.LG

Accelerometry-Derived Digital Biomarkers for Cardiometabolic Risk: A Population-Representative Tabular Benchmark with Uncertainty Quantification

Structured tabular data dominates clinical medicine, yet existing benchmarks fail to reflect real-world properties like complex survey sampling, demographic oversampling, and subgroup fairness. We introduce the NHANES Accelerometry Cardiometabolic Benchmark, derived from NHANES 2003-2006, comprising 1,381 adults with hip-worn accelerometry, fasting laboratory biomarkers, dietary intake, and anthropometrics. We evaluate three tabular learning methods -- ridge regression, XGBoost, and the foundation model TabPFN v2 -- to predict glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting triglycerides, and C-reactive protein (CRP) from activity phenotypes and lifestyle covariates. TabPFN v2 achieves the best overall performance (HbA1c R^2=0.156, CRP R^2=0.383), while triglycerides remain largely unpredictable (R^2 < 0.05), consistent with known genetic dominance. We apply split conformal prediction to generate distribution-free 90% prediction intervals and evaluate demographic coverage equity across sex and race/ethnicity subgroups. Marginal coverage aligns with the 90% target for CRP and HbA1c but falls below for triglycerides. At the subgroup level, we observe localized undercoverage (e.g., HbA1c for Mexican American participants), illustrating the gap between marginal guarantees and the conditional coverage required for clinical fairness. Code and data are at https://github.com/felizzi/nhanes-accel-cardiometabolic-benchmark.

Federico Felizzi

SIIAM, Rome, Italy · enGene Statistics, Basel, Switzerland.

Algorithmic FairnessWearable Health MonitoringClinical Risk PredictionRegression Prediction IntervalsTabular Regression
AskPDF
Jun 29, 2026cs.CL

CaresAI at CT-DEB26: Detecting Dosing Errors In Clinical Trials Using Domain-Specific Transformer Embeddings and Classification Models

Medication errors, particularly dosing errors in clinical trials (CT), can lead to patient harm, adverse drug events and worse patient outcomes. Dosing errors are preventable, and early identification can improve trial integrity and mitigate subsequent clinical and financial burden. This study aims to detect dosing errors within CT protocols by evaluating text representations of trial information using transformer-based language models trained on biomedical corpora. CT textual data was encoded using several models, including ClinicalBERT, PubMedBERT, BioBERT, and MedCPT, and integrated with categorical features. These text embeddings were used as input to classical machine learning models and neural network architectures within an experimental framework. Performance was primarily assessed using ROC-AUC with respect to predicting dosage error. Under a logistic regression baseline, BioBERT consistently outperformed alternative encoders, achieving an ROC-AUC of 0.794, a 3.95% improvement over the ClinicalBERT baseline. Combining multiple embeddings did not yield improvements, indicating that domain alignment outweighs representational stacking. Gradient boosting models, support vector classifiers, logistic regression, and residual neural networks achieved the strongest performance for predicting dosage error, achieving ROC-AUCs: 0.821 to 0.853. Overall, the integration of domain-specific transformer embeddings with structured metadata enables discrimination of trials meeting a predefined elevated dosing error risk criterion, advancing safety monitoring and supporting informed regulatory decision-making.

Leon Hamnett, Favour Igwezeke, Joseph Itopa Abubakar +1

CaresAI, Australia · Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Nsukka Enugu, Nigeria · Menzies School of Health Research, Australia

Clinical Decision SupportClinical NLPClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jun 29, 2026cs.LG

CW-B: Class Weighted Boosting Framework for Imbalance Resilient Multi Class Cardiac Phenotyping

Cardiac discharge phenotyping informs post-discharge treatment and follow-up, but real-world records are often incomplete and class-imbalanced, increasing the risk of missed high-risk phenotypes. We propose CW-B, a clinical risk-aligned class-weighted XGBoost pipeline for five-class cardiac discharge phenotyping under real-world class imbalance and missingness. CW-B combines fold-specific class-balanced instance weighting, missingness-indicator augmentation, and classwise error auditing to improve recognition of clinically prioritized phenotypes while preserving interpretable and auditable decision logic. In five-fold stratified cross-validation, CW-B achieves the best Accuracy, Macro-F1, Balanced Accuracy, and Prioritized F1 among tree-based, ensemble, and neural baselines. Overall, CW-B provides a practical and deployment-oriented approach for more reliable cardiac discharge phenotyping in real-world clinical settings.

Sijia Li, Xiaoyu Tan, Chen Zhan +3

School of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China · Tencent YouTu Lab, Shanghai 200232, China · Department of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Shanghai 200032, China +1

Class-Imbalanced LearningGradient-Boosted Decision TreesMulticlass ClassificationClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jun 25, 2026cs.AI

A Latent ODE Approach to Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cine Cardiac MRI

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) captures rich spatiotemporal information about ventricular structure and motion, but conventional risk models use only a few image-derived indices from selected cardiac phases. We present a latent dynamical model that encodes bi-ventricular anatomy and full-cycle cine motion as a continuous latent trajectory, using heart-rate-aware neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) dynamics and a graph-based mesh autoencoder to reconstruct anatomically consistent 3D+t ventricular motion. A covariate-conditioned prior defines the expected end-diastolic latent state, and a Cox proportional hazards model tests whether deviations from this prior predict incident heart failure. We studied 72,386 UK Biobank participants without baseline cardiovascular disease, including 367 incident heart failure events. In a held-out evaluation subset, adding the latent score to refitted pooled cohort equations improved the stratified C-index from 0.704 to 0.785, compared with 0.764 for seven established cardiac markers. Compared with non-graph and non-ODE approaches, the proposed model gave the best trade-off between reconstruction fidelity, generative realism, and downstream prognostic performance. These results suggest that continuous full-cycle modeling of ventricular motion provides informative cardiac phenotypes beyond conventional CMR summaries, while external validation in more representative patient cohorts is required before clinical risk-prediction use.

David Brüggemann, Ekaterina Krymova, Firat Özdemir +6

Swiss Data Science Center, EPFL and ETH Zürich, Switzerland · Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Zürich, Switzerland · Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University and ETH Zürich, Switzerland +2

Latent Dynamics ModelingMedical Image AnalysisNeural ODEsCardiac MRIClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jun 24, 2026eess.IV

Revealing Mammographic Phenotypes in Deep Learning Breast Cancer Risk Models

Mammogram-based deep learning models have improved breast cancer risk prediction, but the learned imaging patterns remain underexplored. Existing interpretability methods rely on single-image saliency maps, failing to identify recurring mammographic phenotypes across large patient cohorts. By clustering patch embeddings from a pre-trained model, Mirai, we isolate recurring phenotypes linked to 5-year cancer risk. Analyses show risk-increasing phenotypes capture complex structures (e.g., dense tissue, microcalcifications) and shortcut artifacts (e.g., clips). These phenotypes correlate strongly with older age and higher BI-RADS density. Our framework connects tissue patterns to AI risk scores, revealing clinical signatures and potential latent model confounders.

Ruiyu Jia, Yanqi Xu, Yuxuan Chen +2

Department of Mathematics, New York University Shanghai, China · Center for Data Science, New York University, USA · Perlmutter Cancer Center, NYU Langone Health, New York, USA +1

Breast CancerMedical Image AnalysisMammographyExplainable Medical Image AnalysisMedical Image Representation LearningClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF
Jun 24, 2026cs.CV

Pulmonary Embolism Risk Stratification from CTPA and Medical Records: Vascular Graphs Are Not All You Need

Risk stratification for pulmonary embolism (PE) is critical for clinical decision-making. Stratification guidelines are based on patient medical records, parameters measured from computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), and blood tests. However, blood tests are often missing in routine practice. This work studies whether state-of-the-art models can accurately classify risk stratification from only medical records and biomarkers extracted from CTPA images. We benchmark different approaches to combine medical records and cardiac biomarkers with rich pulmonary vascular information; we add vascular biomarkers to tabular models and apply graph neural networks (GNNs) on the vascular tree's intrinsic graph representation. We use a private dataset (n=353) with uniquely complete data for PE risk stratification. Our results show that, among global features, medical records and cardiac biomarkers are the most significant predictors, while vascular biomarkers do not further improve stratification. Even more surprising, even GNNs on vascular graphs fail to outperform strong tabular baseline on global features. We consider hypotheses, on both models and data, that could explain this suboptimal performance. Our investigation suggests that, counter-intuitively, vascular graphs might hold no discriminative information for PE risk stratification. Code is available from https://github.com/creatis-myriad/GENESIS.

Nathan Painchaud, Tristan Habémont, Morgane des Ligneris +6

INSA-Lyon, Université Lyon 1, UJM-Saint Etienne, CNRS, Inserm, CREATIS UMR 5220, U1294, F-69621, Lyon, France · Université Jean Monnet Saint-Étienne, CHU Saint-Étienne, Mines Saint-Étienne, INSERM, SAINBIOSE U1059, CIC 1408, Département de Médecine Vasculaire et Thérapeutique, F-CRIN INNOVTE network, all in F-42055, Saint-Étienne, France · Department of Pneumology, CHU Saint-Etienne, UJM Saint-Etienne, France +3

Graph Neural NetworksClinical Risk Prediction
AskPDF