Estimators

Standard offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms typically assume that the actions in the dataset are observed without error. However, in many real-world applications, the true actions are unobserved and only noisy proxies are available, causing existing RL methods to yield biased and potentially misleading conclusions. We study off-policy evaluation in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes with hidden actions. By leveraging the next-state variable as a natural proxy for the unobserved action, we establish identification of the policy value and propose an influence-function-based estimator called LURE (Learning from the Unseen: Robust Estimator). LURE is multiply robust, remaining consistent under several combinations of correctly specified nuisance components, and is asymptotically normal, enabling valid statistical inference. To our knowledge, this is the first work to address offline RL with hidden actions. We demonstrate LURE's effectiveness through simulations and a sepsis management application using the MIMIC-III database.

Synthetic control (SC) matches a treated unit's pre-treatment trajectory to a weighted combination of donor units. We study Spectral SC, which instead matches the treated unit in coordinates defined by the leading temporal singular vectors of the donor panel, and a hybrid estimator that places separately tunable weight on retained and discarded directions, nesting raw-path SC and truncated Spectral SC as endpoints. We prove that the family reduces exactly to raw-path SC at full rank, that exact balance on $K$ retained dimensions with $N_0$ donors is underdetermined whenever $N_0>K+1$, with an affine solution set of dimension $N_0-K-1$, and that spectral imbalance maps to treatment-effect bias through a finite-sample best-linear-predictor decomposition. We evaluate the estimators across eleven data-generating regimes, using $400$ replications per regime and donor-only placebo validation to select regularization and the mixing weight. Truncated Spectral SC has significantly higher RMSE than tuned raw-path SC in every regime, with paired differences equal to $4$ to $11$ Monte Carlo standard errors. The hybrid estimator selects raw-path matching in most replications and is statistically indistinguishable from tuned SC in most regimes. The result is highly sensitive to preprocessing. With raw inputs, the performance gap is large; after removing unit and time fixed effects before spectral decomposition, as suggested by the assumptions behind our bound, the gap nearly disappears and placebo validation begins to favor truncation. We interpret these findings diagnostically rather than as evidence that Spectral SC should replace raw-path SC. Basis-estimation noise, balancing underdetermination, and fixed-effects contamination determine when spectral matching can help.

Over the past 20 years, kernel discrepancies have been leveraged as a highly powerful tool for quantifying the disagreement of distributions, with numerous successful applications in two-sample, goodness-of-fit, and independence testing, among others. Their fastest estimators are known to converge at a parametric rate---$n^{-1/2}$---under mild conditions. While this rate is known to be minimax optimal on $\mathbb R^d$ under strict assumptions with bounded kernels, little is known about its optimality beyond the finite-dimensional Euclidean setting with unbounded kernels. In this work, we prove that the minimax lower bound of estimation of the most popular kernel discrepancies (maximum mean discrepancy, Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion and kernel Stein discrepancy; MMD, HSIC, KSD) is $n^{-1/2}$ on general topological spaces, and under mild assumptions on the kernel; the same rates are shown (as corollaries) to hold for the estimation of the mean embedding and the centered cross-covariance operator. Our results settle the question of optimal estimation of these kernel discrepancies.

Image inpainting aims to recover missing regions while preserving structural consistency. We propose a non-parametric method without network training based on data-guided stochastic dynamics. Starting from a masked image, the missing pixels are evolved through a reverse-time stochastic differential equation with a kernel-weighted correction estimated directly from a reference dataset. This empirical correction guides the reconstruction toward high-density regions of the data distribution without training a neural network or fitting a parametric density model. Experiments on MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and MVTec show that the proposed method outperforms Mean Fill, Telea, and Navier-Stokes inpainting in PSNR, SSIM, and visual quality. On CelebA, it remains competitive and produces plausible completions for structure-sensitive occlusions. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of empirical reference statistics as a non-parametric prior for image inpainting.

Mixed continuous--categorical data pose a representation problem for continuous generative models. Flow Matching and Gaussian diffusion operate in Euclidean spaces, whereas categorical laws lie on probability simplices and may be highly imbalanced. We study a logit-coordinate framework that encodes categorical variables as smoothed natural parameters and combines them with transformed numerical variables. This yields common formulations of Logit Flow Matching and Logit Diffusion. We introduce a mixed-distribution discrepancy separating categorical marginal error from conditional continuous Wasserstein error, and derive stability bounds and imbalance-aware nonparametric rates linking vector-field or drift error to decoded mixed-distribution error. Controlled simulations show that scaled-logit coordinates improve or match one-hot coordinates, especially under severe rare-cell imbalance. Across four real-data benchmarks and ten splits per dataset, Logit FM improves the primary distributional metrics on three datasets and is comparable on Churn2; Block-Conditional Logit FM consistently improves the flat model; and Logit Diffusion generally improves over or matches One-Hot Diffusion.

An initial high-recall stage in an empirical pipeline decides which items pass to later review, labelling, or modelling, and relevant items it misses are lost to every subsequent stage. We study how many audit labels are needed to certify, with finite-sample validity, that this missed relevant mass is small, and our main results characterise the label complexity of this problem. We first show that no procedure using only labels from inside the candidate set can certify any non-trivial bound on the missed mass: the audit must sample the excluded pool, the only region where unrecovered relevant items can lie. We then prove a matching finite-corpus lower bound. Any valid audit that certifies fewer than $m$ missed relevant items with high probability when none are present, even if adaptive and permitted to label the entire included pool, must inspect on the order of $N_0/m$ excluded-pool labels. Excluded-pool auditing is therefore minimax rate-optimal, not merely convenient, for missed-mass certification in the zero-miss regime. Building on this characterisation, we develop an exact finite-sample toolkit, using binomial and hypergeometric inversion rather than asymptotic approximation, that certifies missed mass, converts it to recall through a two-pool design, certifies pre-specified families of nested candidate generators simultaneously, and produces stress-test certificates against declared perturbation mechanisms. These certificates can be paired with observable review burden to select the least burdensome pre-specified candidate generator meeting a missed-mass target. Every guarantee holds under one discipline: the candidate generator, or the pre-specified family from which it is selected, and the audit rule are fixed before the certification labels are examined.

B-spline regression constitutes a widely used framework for nonparametric modeling. The performance of this methodology depends on specifying the number and placement of changepoints, known as knots, prior to the estimation process. Such knot sequence determines the dimension of the B-spline basis used to represent the regression function and the number of coefficients to be estimated. Therefore, the knots' choice affects the model's flexibility, influencing its smoothness and goodness-of-fit. Traditionally, this problem has been addressed either by explicitly selecting knots, via knot-selection algorithms, or by regularization methods, such as P-splines, which automatically tune the regressor's smoothness. The latter have become the standard in generalized additive models (GAMs). In contrast, knot-selection techniques, frequently neglected because of computational or modeling limitations, provide certain advantages which can be valuable in some contexts. In this work, we introduce a novel explicit knot-selection technique for GAMs based on an extension of the adaptive splines (A-splines) knot selection methodology, combined with a customized Fellner-Schall scheme for tuning the associated parameters. Our approach is evaluated on various synthetic and real datasets and compared with P-splines and state-of-the-art knot-selection techniques. The results indicate comparable performance, while producing models built on a substantially smaller number of basis elements.

Covariate shift often occurs because, in many real applications, the source and the target observations may be generated from different distributions. In this case, the standard metric under the source distribution is not appropriate. This paper considers deep neural network estimators for nonparametric quantile and Huber regression under covariate shift and from dependent observations. We deal with a generalized Bernstein-type inequality that is satisfied by many classical models, including i.i.d. observations, $φ$-mixing, strong mixing, and $\mathcal{C}$-mixing processes. To perform the covariate shift phenomenon, we propose a sparse-penalized deep neural network (SPDNN) estimator that takes into account the discrepancy between the source and target distributions of the data. When the density ratio (between the source and target distributions of the covariate) is unknown, a two steps pre-training procedure is carried out: the first step is devoted to the construction of a least squares SPDNN estimator of the density ratio; which is used in the second step to perform a pre-training reweighted SPDNN estimator of the regression function. For both the quantile and the Huber regression, non-asymptotic error bounds of the proposed SPDNN estimators are established in the class of Hölder smooth functions. These estimators can adaptively attain (up to a logarithmic factor) the minimax optimal convergence rate from i.i.d. data as well as from several classical time series models.

We introduce the Directional Kernel Mean Difference (DKMD), a signed statistic for univariate distribution comparison that preserves the direction of distributional shifts. Unlike the squared Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), which discards directional information by squaring the RKHS distance, DKMD integrates the difference of kernel mean embeddings against a fixed odd weighting function. This construction yields three structural properties: antisymmetry, immunity to symmetric distributional differences, and directional monotonicity under stochastic dominance. We derive a data-driven Riemann estimator that ensures asymptotic consistency with the continuous formulation, strictly preserving the theoretical guarantees of the signed statistic in empirical evaluations. To overcome the quadratic computational cost of kernel methods, we develop an $O(N \log N)$ prefix--suffix scanning algorithm that exploits the total order of the real line while requiring only $O(N)$ memory. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks demonstrate that DKMD correctly isolates directional shifts from symmetric perturbations, remains robust to heavy-tailed outliers that can flip the sign of the mean difference, and scales to millions of samples in seconds.

Kernel regression with tensor trains and Hadamard overparameterization (KReTTaH) is introduced as a training-data-free, interpretable, and nonparametric framework for multi-way data imputation. The imputation problem is reformulated as regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), where the tensor regression coefficients are explicitly constrained to lie on fixed-rank tensor-train (TT) manifolds and structured via Hadamard overparameterization to promote sparsity and high representational efficiency. Rather than relying on costly cross-validation, KReTTaH jointly optimizes the TT coefficient tensors and the kernel covariance matrices within a Riemannian product-manifold framework -- the former on fixed-rank TT manifolds, the latter on the manifold of positive-definite matrices -- thereby enabling automated kernel-hyperparameter selection. Numerical tests on two challenging applications -- imputation of high-dimensional functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data and recovery of missing edge flows in dynamic graphs -- demonstrate that KReTTaH consistently outperforms state-of-the-art tensor-, Bayesian-, and neural-network-based baselines in terms of modeling accuracy.

We study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown and potentially complex dependence using group-invariance. Building on permutation-based constructions that treat transformed datasets as exchangeable units, we aggregate evidence across statistics for each transformed dataset and calibrate the resulting aggregates across transformations. We develop a finite-sample power and adaptivity theory for this framework, together with extensions to sequential and data-dependent aggregation that preserve validity. For single-batch aggregation, which uses one collection of transformed datasets for both standardization and calibration, we show that the critical values uniformly improve on deterministic calibrations valid under arbitrary dependence, including Bonferroni correction, while adapting to the unknown dependence structure. We also introduce a sequential alpha-spending version that permits early rejection when evidence is strong, and a two-batch extension that separates standardization from calibration to accommodate learned aggregation rules and reduce computation. Applications to adaptive nonparametric testing and conformal prediction illustrate how these results sharpen existing aggregation methods.

This article presents a novel estimator for performing off-policy evaluation using only offline data for contextual bandits. The proposed estimator, Kernel-WIS is demonstrated to be asymptotically consistent and to empirically outperform strong baselines (including vanilla weighted importance sampling), particularly under complex conditions including behaviour policy miss-specification. The benefit of Kernel-WIS is derived from combining the bounded property of vanilla weighted importance sampling with the linearity of vanilla importance sampling.

Policy learning methods are increasingly used to inform treatment allocation under budget constraints. Most proposed methods assume complete treatment data, yet applications frequently suffer from missingness that can bias estimates and lead to suboptimal policies. We address this gap by extending efficient estimators for average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to policy value and conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under missing at random (MAR) and missing completely conditionally at random (MCCAR) treatment data. Through asymptotic efficiency analysis, we prove that the MAR estimator, which leverages partially-observed units, is both valid and more efficient than the MCCAR estimator when MCCAR assumptions hold. This result provides formal justification for preferring MAR-based estimation in policy learning under both missing data settings. Our comprehensive experiments using synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets confirm that correctly specifying the missingness mechanism is crucial: misspecified estimators remain biased regardless of sample size, while our estimators achieve near-oracle performance when assumptions are satisfied. Our work provides practitioners with theoretically grounded, empirically validated tools for robust policy learning in the presence of missing treatment data.

Estimating the full shape of a deformable object is especially challenging when vision is unavailable: in the dark, inside an opaque bag, behind the manipulating hand, or under heavy self-occlusion. Touch is the natural sensor in these settings, but touches are sparse and local. We present a single topology-agnostic estimator that reconstructs the full mesh of a deformable object from only a few touches and no vision, using one permutation-invariant cross-attention architecture that handles a 1D rope, a 2D cloth, and a 3D volumetric soft body. The learned estimator reduces reconstruction error by roughly two-thirds relative to non-learned geometric mesh completion and a Gaussian-process surface baseline, and it outperforms a simpler global-pool set encoder, with the gap growing as more touches are observed. We then show that the estimator's deep-ensemble uncertainty can be used to learn where to touch next, which lowers error further and beats both random touching and a Gaussian-process active baseline at sparse budgets. This gain is modest on average but grows with self-occlusion and on the error tail. When vision is also available, where to touch barely matters, motivating the vision-free setting we study.

Circular data, representing angles or directions, are frequently encountered in computer vision, biology, geology, and meteorology. Traditional regression targets the conditional mean, which is often geometrically misleading for circular responses under multimodal, skewed, or asymmetric data structures. To address these limitations, a lightweight deep generative framework, namely ANGLE, is introduced for non-parametric distributional regression on the circle. The full conditional distribution of an angular response, given Euclidean and circular covariates, is learned through a generative map optimized via a generalized circular energy score (GCES) loss. Desirable theoretical properties, including the strict propriety of the loss and the rotational equivariance of the estimators, are established. Furthermore, both pre- and post-additive noise models are accommodated. A unified toolbox is provided for advancing previously underexplored challenges in circular statistics: extrapolation, sufficient dimension reduction, and conditional distribution equality testing. The framework's efficacy is demonstrated through extensive simulations and real-world applications. Specifically, the proposal is utilized for object pose estimation from imagery and wind direction prediction, which are integral to surveillance, autonomous vehicles, and energy systems, respectively. Superior predictive performance and robust uncertainty quantification of the proposed method in these tasks are revealed.

Deep generative models are increasingly used as simulators for downstream decision-making under data scarcity, but in risk-sensitive applications their usefulness depends on rare adverse scenarios rather than typical samples. Standard generative objectives prioritize bulk distributional fidelity, leaving low-probability tails vulnerable to localized optimization noise and making tail-dependent functionals unstable under finite simulation budgets. We introduce Diachronic Sample Integration (DSI), a test-time inference framework that ensembles generated samples across checkpoints from a stochastic training trajectory. DSI targets a checkpoint-mixture distribution that averages checkpoint-specific tail fluctuations rather than relying on a single brittle endpoint. We formalize this mechanism through a finite-budget bias-variance theory. Empirically, across multivariate synthetic processes and high-frequency trading data, DSI substantially reduces tail-estimation error compared to single-checkpoint baselines under fixed simulation budgets, outperforming standard diffusion and state-of-the-art tail-aware baselines without modifying the generative objective.

We propose a two-stage estimator for structural mediation parameters that combines deep representation learning with G-estimation under the "no essential heterogeneity" (NEH) assumption. We call the method UNIT. In the first stage,TARNet estimates the heterogeneous effect of a randomized treatment on a mediator by learning a shared covariate representation across treatment arms.The resulting conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimate provides a plug-in approximation to the heterogeneity-dependent component of the weight function entering the G-estimating equation of Zheng and Zhou (2015), which identifies the structural parameters even in the presence of unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding. We show that more accurate first-stage representation learning can yield a more informative plug-in weight and thereby improve the precision of the structural parameter estimator. In simulations with non-Gaussian covariates and nonlinear mediator effects, TARNet weights reduce the Stage-2 standard error of the mediation coefficient by a factor of $1.45$ to $1.51$ (median across replications, $n \ge 2000$) relative to the classical approach, at no cost to bias or coverage.

Typical semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods rely on distributional assumptions, and their performance degrades when these are violated. While PNU learning, a risk rewriting method, offers a distribution-free alternative, it is restricted to binary classification and its variance optimality remains unclear. In this paper, we propose a generalized framework that constructs unbiased risk estimators using linear combinations of component risks, subsuming PNU learning and extending to multiclass classification. We derive the minimum achievable variance, demonstrating our estimator can attain lower variance than PNU in asymmetric loss scenarios. Furthermore, we establish a generalization bound directly linking this variance reduction to improved learning performance. Based on these theoretical insights, we introduce two practical SSL methods that empirically match or outperform existing approaches on binary and multiclass benchmarks.

The impact of a given training point on a statistical model is classically measured through its leave-one-out influence, which quantifies the effect of its removal from the training set on the model accuracy. While the statistics of leave-one-out influences are well understood in the low-dimensional, large sample limit $n\to \infty, d=O(1)$, they become more intricate in high dimensions, as the influence of a given sample develops non-trivial dependencies on all other training samples. For convex M-estimation under Gaussian design, in the high-dimensional limit $n\asymp d$, we show that the distribution of the influences across the training set converges to a limiting measure which we sharply characterize. Building on these results, we provide evidence that influential samples tend to lie close to the decision boundary, thereby making contact with a standard data selection heuristic in active learning.

Estimating original-space conditional expectations is central to value-driven recommender systems, including dwell time, GMV, and LTV forecasting. Standard MSE is expectation-consistent in principle, but its gradients become unstable on heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and multimodal targets, causing mean collapse and tail shrinkage. Target transformation alleviates this scale conflict, yet any useful nonlinear marginal transform loses expectation consistency under direct inversion. This is not an implementation oversight: a direct inverse-transform estimator is universally expectation-consistent only when the inverse transform is affine, which cannot simultaneously provide bounded tail compression. Existing conditionally linear recovery methods restore expectation consistency, but still leave open which coordinate, inverse lookup, recovery base, and deployment monitor should be selected for sparse complex marginals. We propose \textbf{P}robability-\textbf{I}ntegral-\textbf{TranS}formed \textbf{Un}biased recovery (\textbf{PIT-SUN}), a deployable empirical marginal recovery framework. PIT-SUN uses one empirical marginal table to define a bounded normal-score coordinate, its inverse-quantile lookup, a variance-controlled recovery base, and drift monitoring, then applies multiplicative SUN recovery to estimate the original-space expectation instead of directly inverting transformed predictions. Experiments on synthetic distributions, public benchmarks, large-scale industrial datasets, and online deployment show robust improvements in point accuracy, calibration, and ranking quality with lightweight deployment overhead.

Gradient estimation -- the task of computing the gradient of the expected value of a probabilistic program -- has diverse applications in scientific computing, but is notoriously difficult because of issues such as high-dimensional integration, discrete random choices, and complex stochastic dependencies. This article introduces gradient inference, a new approach to developing sound and efficient gradient estimators for probabilistic programs. Gradient inference rests on a formal reduction from a gradient estimation problem to a closely related probabilistic inference problem, whose solution can be differentiated to obtain a gradient estimator. This inference problem is obtained by applying two powerful statistical operations -- coupling and factorization -- to the input probabilistic program. Our reduction lets us leverage the rich toolkit of probabilistic inference algorithms to design novel gradient estimators that extend and improve upon existing methods. We introduce GradInf, a probabilistic programming system that facilitates the sound and automated implementation of gradient inference. GradInf is centered around programmable source-to-source transformations for coupling and factorizing higher-order probabilistic programs, whose soundness is proven in terms of a denotational semantics. Key to our development is the use of information-flow typing to allow random choices in a probabilistic program to be factored out and partially evaluated, which improves our ability to deploy sophisticated probabilistic inference algorithms. The resulting system offers practitioners a principled framework for designing gradient estimators. We apply GradInf to several challenging case studies, showing that it can express prominent gradient estimators from the literature and enables the construction of new state-of-the-art estimators that outperform the best existing baselines.

Recovering the exact directed acyclic graph (DAG) in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models with latent confounders (LvLiNGAM) remains a challenging problem. Although LvLiNGAM is identifiable only up to an observational equivalence class, each equivalence class is characterized by a unique sparsest DAG. Recovering the sparsest DAG from finite samples, however, remains difficult. Although existing methods are asymptotically consistent, they do not provide an explicit finite-sample procedure for recovering the unique sparsest DAG, nor do they handle models with an arbitrary number of latent confounders. In this paper, we propose a finite-sample method for recovering the sparsest DAG without imposing any restriction on the number of latent confounders. Simulation studies and real-data analyses demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior finite-sample performance compared with existing approaches.

Memory-efficient optimizers such as GaLore train large language models by projecting gradients onto a rank-r subspace recomputed every T steps, assuming this subspace is a slowly drifting object that can be tracked. We show that beyond a small reproducible core, there is no such object. Two estimates of the top-r subspace computed at the same step from disjoint minibatches disagree as much as estimates computed T steps apart (0.73 vs 0.74 of the maximal chordal distance sqrt(2r), at Pythia-160M with r=128): the apparent rotation at each refresh is dominated by estimator noise. This holds across four model families in three architecture classes from 70M to 6.9B parameters, strengthening with scale, and more weakly in a vision transformer. Only ~39 of 128 directions are reproducible across minibatches, and averaging cannot recover the rest: under N-fold averaging the gradient's spectral tail shrinks as N^(-1/4) rather than the N^(-1/2) of pure noise, so no averaging budget makes the subspace well defined. What helps instead follows from treating each refresh as a change of coordinates for Adam's state. Carrying the second moment blindly is provably about (r-k*)/2 worse than the best rotation-blind estimator, while the first moment transports exactly through the rotation, the optimal linear map under isotropic gradients and the rule LDAdam uses. At 1B over 40k steps (3 seeds), full LDAdam reaches 18.7 perplexity at beta2=0.999, beating untransported GaLore after its best beta2 fix (19.3); shortening the second-moment memory to beta2=0.99 helps the refreshing optimizers, though for canonical GaLore the effect is small and a full-rank control reverses it. One measurable fact, subspace non-identifiability, clarifies why GaLore works, which patches work, and what to check before trusting a low-rank assumption: the reproducible rank k*.

Randomized smoothing has emerged as a scalable technique for certifying the adversarial robustness of classifiers. However, its application to regression remains under-explored and faces unique challenges. Existing regression certificates rely on probabilistic acceptance regions and fail to exploit the local geometry of the function. In this work, we present a novel framework for certified robust regression that addresses these limitations. We derive a prediction-centered certificate that guarantees the stability of the smoothed model's prediction and ensures practical computability at test time. We investigate several alternatives for constructing these certificates by explicitly incorporating means, variances, and gradients. In particular, we demonstrate on the MNIST rotation task that utilizing gradient information yields significantly tighter robustness certificates compared to the current state-of-the-art, alpha-smoothing.

Recovering dynamic environment maps from a single in-the-wild video is crucial for photorealistic rendering, yet remains a challenge. Recent video generation models can produce photorealistic scenes with complex lighting, possessing an inherent understanding of lighting. In this paper, we introduce V-LITE (Video generation models are inherent lighting estimators), a framework that unlocks this internal knowledge by reframing lighting estimation as a guided video inpainting task. Inspired by VFX industry practices, we insert a synthetic chrome ball into the scene to compel the model to generate physically plausible reflections from the surrounding spatio-temporal context. To bridge the gap from LDR-native models to the HDR domain, we design an HDR-aware VAE and employ an efficient LoRA-based fine-tuning strategy. We then construct a mixed dataset comprising high-fidelity HDR images to provide realistic HDR priors, and in-the-wild HDR videos to provide dynamic spatio-temporal context. Extensive experiments demonstrate that V-LITE produces temporally coherent HDR environment maps, revealing that modern video diffusion models are not merely synthesizers but also powerful, inherently capable estimators of physical scene lighting.

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$. This paper develops the statistical theory that makes the word "reliable" precise for such estimators. We decompose estimator variance into a persona-draw component $σ_P^2$ and a within-run component $σ_w^2$, give unbiased ANOVA estimators of both, and derive the variance-optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget between outer persona draws and inner replications. A coupling-based stability bound quantifies how misestimation of $\mathcal{P}$ and error in the trained policy propagate into the estimand, yielding a three-term total-error budget whose terms are separately estimable; a uniform-in-horizon version holds under a Doeblin condition on the market chain. The main contribution is an identification theory for heterogeneous news reaction: under a fixed response nonlinearity, the aggregate impact curve $A(z)=\mathbb{E}_Q[g(ηz)]$ detects heterogeneous news sensitivity through a strict Jensen gap and identifies the distribution $Q$ locally via odd moments and Hausdorff determinacy, with sharp failure when the response family is unknown. We provide $\sqrt{n}$-consistent estimators and a boundary-corrected test of homogeneous news reaction. Two separation theorems delimit when PTMC is provably preferable to homogeneous-population simulators and reduced-form forecasters, formalizing an irreducible Jensen bias floor and the Lucas critique as a minimax limit on intervention extrapolation. All proofs are given in full; guarantees are classified as unconditional (Monte Carlo convergence), conditional worst-case (the error budget), or open (the large-$K$ mean-field limit).

Mutual information (MI) estimation is a central problem in machine learning and statistics; however, existing benchmarks typically evaluate estimators on simplified, low-dimensional distributions, leaving their performance on complex, realistic data largely unexplored. We address this gap with a comprehensive benchmarking framework grounded in a unified copula-theoretic perspective that subsumes existing benchmarks as special cases. Within this framework, we propose two complementary families of tests: a copula-first family that systematically varies ground-truth MI, dimensionality, and marginal complexity using synthetic and flow-based transformations; and a marginals-first family that couples real-world image data with controlled dependency structures, extending the classic same-class-pairing paradigm. We use this suite to extensively evaluate three classes of estimators: non-parametric, discriminative, and generative. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, our results indicate that there is no universal winner: each category can systematically outperform all other estimators under specific setups. By analyzing these cases, we identify fundamental estimation barriers and propose new tests that more effectively stress these specific limitations. We share the open source code at https://github.com/VanessB/mutinfo.

We ask whether interaction is necessary for order-optimal 1-bit mean estimation over nonparametric finite-moment classes. Adaptive threshold-query protocols achieve the order-optimal 1-bit minimax rate, and the same rate is attainable with general 1-bit queries using only one adaptive transition (i.e., two stages of querying). In the non-adaptive setting, threshold and interval queries are known to be highly suboptimal, but the case of arbitrary non-adaptive quantizers remains unresolved. Can such quantizers match the adaptive rate, yielding an optimal one-shot protocol? Or is the known two-stage estimator stage-optimal, with a single adaptive transition being necessary and sufficient?

Integrating information across related tasks can improve estimation and prediction in transfer, multi-task, and federated learning, but contamination and heterogeneity make robust borrowing challenging. We study a contaminated multi-task empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework in which an $ε$ fraction of $K$ tasks, each with sample size $n$, may be arbitrarily contaminated while the remaining tasks are heterogeneous. Our goal is to estimate both the global minimizer of the average risk and the clean task-specific minimizers, thereby combining robustness and personalization. In the Gaussian mean model, we show that several common paradigms, including adaptive and robust regularization around a shared center, global matrix regularization, decomposition-based regularization, and score-based outlier-task detection, all suffer from a worst-case contamination error of order $ε\sqrt{d/n}$, which is suboptimal compared to the lower bound $ε/\sqrt{n}$. This identifies a dimension-dependent barrier for these approaches. We then establish minimax lower bounds for a general heterogeneous ERM setting and propose a computationally efficient filtering-based robust multi-task gradient descent method. Under local strong convexity, smoothness, and sub-Gaussian gradient assumptions, the proposed method attains high-probability upper bounds matching the minimax rates up to logarithmic factors over a broad regime. In particular, it removes the extra $\sqrt{d}$ contamination dependence of many regularization-based methods and score-based outlier detection, while achieving personalization to local tasks under strong heterogeneity. Simulations and a real-data analysis demonstrate strong robustness and personalization relative to a broad range of benchmark methods.

The aggregation with exponential weights (AEW) estimator is not fully understood in the basic setting of model selection aggregation with squared loss. In particular, whether it is minimax-rate optimal in expectation for large enough fixed temperatures and under random design has been an open problem since its introduction, which was explicitly posed by Lecué and Mendelson (2013). In this paper, we settle this problem by showing that \emph{without} requiring a Bernstein-type assumption, the AEW indeed achieves the excess risk $T \log (M) / (n+1)$ in expectation, whenever the temperature $T$ satisfies $(L^2/T)\exp(B/T)\leq μ/2$. Here, the number of dictionary elements is $M$, the estimator has observed $n$ i.i.d. samples from any distribution, and the loss is assumed to be bounded by $B$, $L$-Lipschitz continuous and $μ$-strongly convex. For squared loss, we show that $T\geq 4 b^2$ suffices when the predictions and labels are $[0,b]$-valued. Because AEW is known to be suboptimal in expectation for temperatures below some constant, this shows that AEW has a sharp phase transition when the temperature is large enough but constant, as conjectured by Lecué and Mendelson.

Open-source projects depend on a steady inflow of newcomers. A growing concern is that AI coding agents (tools such as Cursor and Claude Code that write code from natural-language instructions) will crowd them out, by absorbing the simple tasks that beginners start with and by making code harder to read. We give this concern a causal answer. Using GitHub code search we identify 1,888 projects that adopted an agent, signaled by their first commit of a configuration file. We apply difference-in-differences against matched non-adopting controls, restricting the main analysis to the 603 adopters with a genuine pre-adoption period. We find no evidence of crowding-out: across estimators newcomer inflow shows no significant decline after adoption (point estimates run from a small increase to, under the most conservative trend specification, a slight and insignificant dip), onboarding and retention are unchanged, and a sparse, correlational beginner-task measure (good-first-issue labels, which we cannot test for parallel trends) shows no decline. The feared mechanism is real but decoupled: adoption raises per-function code complexity (about +11% on a cognitive metric for Python, a quarter of the prior estimate, and +3 to 4% in cyclomatic terms across all languages), yet in fixed-unit subsets where complexity rose (Python on the cognitive metric, and all languages on the cyclomatic metric), newcomer participation does not decline. These results suggest that, in established open-source projects, adopting an AI coding agent makes code modestly more complex but does not crowd out the human newcomers that a project depends on: the feared trade-off between AI assistance and human participation does not materialize.

Day-ahead wind power forecasting is essential for cost-effective power-system operation. It is primarily driven by future meteorological conditions while retaining temporal dependencies in power generation. In practice, observed wind-farm power often entangles physically available power with local environmental effects and latent operational states, such as shutdowns and curtailment. Existing physical models provide useful constraints but adapt poorly across wind farms, whereas data-driven models can capture rich correlations but often conflate meteorological effects with state-induced deviations. In this study, we propose UniWind, a wind power forecasting model based on physics-informed state routing. UniWind first employs a Physical Prior Estimator to construct a site-calibrated physical prior by combining site-conditioned monotonic warping with a shared physical power curve. It further applies a physical upper-bound constraint to shape this prior as a soft envelope of available wind power generation. UniWind then proposes a Latent State Encoder to model operating-state embeddings and transforms the physical prior into final power forecasts through a State-aware Power Corrector, which uses knowledge-guided supervised state routing and bounded, state-specific expert correction. Full-shot and cross-farm zero-shot experiments on more than 20 real-world datasets demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of UniWind.

We present an algorithm for the group distributionally robust (GDR) least squares problem. Given $m$ groups, a parameter vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$, and stacked design matrices and responses $\mathbf{A}$ and $\mathbf{b}$, our algorithm obtains a $(1+\varepsilon)$-multiplicative optimal solution using $\widetilde{O}(\min\{\mathsf{rank}(\mathbf{A}),m\}^{1/3}\varepsilon^{-2/3})$ linear-system-solves of matrices of the form $\mathbf{A}^{\top}\mathbf{B}\mathbf{A}$ for block-diagonal $\mathbf{B}$. Our technical methods follow from a recent geometric construction, block Lewis weights, that relates the empirical GDR problem to a carefully chosen least squares problem and an application of accelerated proximal methods. Our algorithm improves over known interior point methods for moderate accuracy regimes and matches the state-of-the-art guarantees for the special case of $\ell_{\infty}$ regression. We also give algorithms that smoothly interpolate between minimizing the average least squares loss and the distributionally robust loss.

Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. The statistical efficiency of these intervals depends critically on how the data are split into training and calibration samples. Despite its practical importance, a principled characterization of the training-calibration split that minimizes prediction interval length while maintaining coverage has remained largely unresolved. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for optimal data splitting in split conformal prediction. We first analyze the problem in a general setting and derive analytical characterizations of the length-optimal split ratio under both symmetric and asymmetric regimes. We then show how the general results specialize to several commonly used regression settings, including linear regression, nonparametric regression, and neural networks, thereby demonstrating the scope of the framework. We also describe a data-based method for selecting the optimal proportion. Our analysis clarifies how model-related features govern the optimal allocation of samples between training and calibration and provides principled guidance for constructing shorter prediction intervals. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology across a variety of practical scenarios.

Adaptive experiments for average treatment effects (ATE) require randomized allocations balancing valid inference with statistical efficiency. The oracle design is a covariate-dependent Neyman rule governed by unknown arm-conditional outcome variances. We investigate whether this sequential variance-estimation and allocation process can be amortized via in-context learning. We introduce Bayesian in-context experimenters: transformer policies trained to imitate a Bayesian posterior Neyman teacher. The teacher updates nonparametric beliefs over potential outcomes using experimental history to assign posterior Neyman treatment probabilities. This design converges to the oracle rule, supporting efficient ATE inference. Transformers constructively implement this mapping through attention-based sufficient statistics and projected gradient descent, imitating Bayesian updating for Gaussian-series priors. To address unknown outcome smoothness, we combine smoothness-indexed experimenters using a mixture-of-experts transformer. The gate acts as a hierarchical posterior over smoothness classes, concentrating on near-oracle experts. By bounding the complexity of the transformer class, we prove this amortized policy can be learned via empirical risk minimization using supervised pretraining. Experiments confirm accurate teacher imitation, adaptive allocation, and improved ATE precision over baselines.

Few-shot segmentation asks a model to delineate a target class in a query image from only a handful of annotated examples, a setting most acute in remote sensing, where labels are scarce and the imagery departs sharply from the natural images on which vision backbones are pretrained. Prevailing approaches either train a segmenter on labelled episodes, which raises accuracy within the training distribution but binds the model to it, or reduce each class to a lossy summary of frozen features, a single prototype, a few cluster prototypes, or a discrete clustering, none of which preserves the internal structure of a multimodal class. We argue that a class is better described by a distribution than by a point, and that frozen self-supervised features already carry enough structure to estimate that distribution directly. We introduce FROST, a training-free few-shot segmenter that treats the reference foreground and background as two point clouds on the unit sphere of frozen DINOv3 features and labels each query token by a nonparametric density ratio, with a threshold the Bayes rule fixes at zero under equal priors. Because the variance of a density estimate shrinks as its sample grows, the decision sharpens as references accumulate, and every remaining quantity from the kernel bandwidth to the spatial gate is read from the support set rather than tuned. We develop FROST for overhead imagery, where a class is typically a scatter of many small and dissimilar instances that a density tracks but a lossy summary blurs. Across seventeen remote-sensing benchmarks FROST surpasses both training-free and learning-based methods, leading by 5.6 mIoU from a single annotated example and widening its lead as the support set grows, all while remaining among the smallest models compared. Code is available at https://github.com/jhpark-ai/FROST.

Edge-cloud inference collaborations are often designed with a routing estimator that decides whether to offload each frame from weak models at the edge to stronger models in the cloud. Existing systems place the routing estimator after the weak detector, so the weak forward pass still runs even on frames that are later offloaded. In this paper, we argue that this weak-conditioned design can be suboptimal when the offload budget varies. First, we present a competitive weak-skipping estimator (0.153 GFLOPs, about 29x lighter than the weak detector at 4.49 GFLOPs) that extracts routing signal from raw pixels, outperforming the common after-weak placement weak-conditioned baselines. Second, we show that neither weak-skipping nor weak-conditioned placement dominates across the full operating curve, and we propose budget-adaptive routing, which selects between them by offload budget via two offline-tuned thresholds. On PASCAL VOC, our budget-adaptive router traces the upper accuracy envelope of both fixed placements across the operating range. Our method reduces per-frame latency by up to 19.1 ms (about 30% lower at rho = 0.9). Besides outperforming SOTA methods, it is surprisingly stronger than the strong model (+1.7 pp over the strong model's peak mAP) at some operating points with far less compute. Artifacts are available at https://github.com/ViGeng/bgt-ada

The number of trees is a central computational parameter in Random Forests: increasing it reduces finite-ensemble variability but increases training and prediction cost. Plateau-based tuning adapts this parameter through local comparisons of out-of-bag scores at a geometric triplet of tree counts. After the remaining hyperparameters have stabilized, however, the central triplet point need not converge to a deterministic value; instead, it fluctuates around a stationary regime. This paper develops a stationary-distribution theory for this process. The central ensemble size $B_t$ is modeled as a birth-death Markov chain on a geometric grid, and its stationary distribution is derived through local balance. Under a leading centered folded-normal approximation, equilibrium equations are obtained for the original update rule and a symmetric modified variant, implying that the stationary center $B_*=O(\varepsilon^{-2})$ as $\varepsilon\downarrow 0$. The stationary spread is also characterized. A local Gaussian approximation and a Fokker-Planck interpretation give grid-level variance constants. After conversion to the ensemble-size scale, $σ_{B,*}=O(\varepsilon^{-2})$, while the variance is $O(\varepsilon^{-4})$. The leading relative spread is independent of $\varepsilon$ and controlled by the scale factor and update rule. These results interpret plateau-based Random Forest tuning as a stochastic process rather than a deterministic stopping rule.

We consider sparse multivariate stochastic systems that evolve in continuous time according to a causal mechanism and present methodology to recover the system's time-infinitesimal transition mechanism from mere cross-sectional data. This observational paradigm is motivated by applications such as gene expression analysis, where destructive experimental techniques may only allow recording data once over a cell's lifetime. Precisely, we assume the system follows a time-homogeneous diffusion process that has reached an equilibrium distribution at observation time. Further, we assume the causal mechanism is fully described by the diffusion drift, is acyclic, and its causal structure graph is known. In this setting, we prove that the full causal mechanism, i.e., the drift function, can be non-parametrically identified under a weak non-explosion criterion. We derive a non-parametric kernel estimator for this challenging inverse problem and prove its consistency. Moreover, we propose a cross-validation scheme for hyperparameter tuning, illustrate the behavior of our estimator in simulations, and we discuss connections with irreversible generative diffusion models and low-frequency sampled data.

Quantitative research across the social and behavioral sciences depends on human subject experiments that are expensive, slow, and subject to sampling bias. Here we show that pretrained large language models induce risk-equivalent estimators of conditional expectations under squared loss, establishing restricted functional risk equivalence: under squared loss, the LLM induces an estimator whose risk matches the Bayes optimal risk for squared-loss prediction of conditional expectations for any inference that depends on the data only through the conditional mean. We formalize the LLM as a misspecified functional estimator $T(\hat{P}_n)$ trained on i.i.d.\ data, decompose the estimation error into representation bias $ε_{\mathrm{rep}}$ and optimization error, and prove that under mild regularity conditions the LLM's expected error converges to the irreducible population variance plus the squared representation bias, with the representation bias bounded by the Pinsker inequality. The identifiability error $δ$ propagates into the effective bias, inflating the asymptotic risk floor. We establish restricted functional risk equivalence via a bidirectional Le Cam deficiency analysis: the forward deficiency vanishes asymptotically while the reverse deficiency is exactly zero. We provide finite-sample concentration bounds and a calibration protocol with explicit decision rules. The result is a precise, provable statement: a well-calibrated LLM achieves the Bayes-optimal risk for conditional-mean-dependent inference, bounded by explicit scope conditions. In practical applications, this means that under satisfied conditions and well-calibrated models, large language models can be used in many prediction and decision-making tasks that originally relied on human experiments, approximating near-optimal statistical inference at lower cost.

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, such as k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN) or random forest, eschew the ideal of true data models in favour of predictive performance. However, minimising the MSE or F-score cannot lead to unbiasedness directly, which is important in many situations such as official statistics. We study the conditions of algorithmic ML, other than the existence and knowledge of true data models, which lead to unbiased prediction or classification for a given finite population, including how the training data may be sampled from the population, how a trained prediction algorithm can be tuned to achieve unbiased prediction or classification for that population, and how the performance of out-of-sample prediction or classification can be assessed unbiasedly. The inference is based on the known probability design of samples and training sets, rather than any assumed distributions or models.

We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining. Analysts specify a generative world, a distribution over data-generating processes, and a target decision objective. A neural network trained on stratified simulations from this world approximates the corresponding optimal decision rule, yielding a neural estimator that provides forecasts, parameter estimates, predictive intervals, or model-selection for zero-shot inference on previously unseen time series. The joint specification of the generative world and objective enables the estimators to directly approximate process-level, finite-sample properties: near-optimal risk, bias control, minimax performance, and uniform calibration. Our experiments demonstrate that these neural estimators can outperform traditional baselines such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection via AICc, for the same model structural model classes. Furthermore, even when trained purely on simulations of structural models, they achieve competitive or state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on major real-world benchmarks, compared with statistical, neural or large pre-trained models. We illustrate the framework by addressing two longstanding challenges: finite-sample bias and miscalibration in AR(p) models, and the forecast combination puzzle. These applications highlight the approach's main advantage: its ability to approximate solutions to analytically intractable or computationally prohibitive time series problems, including complex structural equations or optimality criteria. Ultimately, by enabling explicit control over decision-theoretic trade-offs, the framework equips analysts with highly efficient estimation tools tailored to their specific analytical needs.

Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight XMSE is a scalar quadratic, yielding a closed-form oracle mixing weight that is no worse than both ML and the base EB estimator at the XMSE scale. A plug-in implementation based on finite-sample XMSE approximations is proved consistent, with a second-order oracle regret rate for an interior oracle weight. We further establish a transfer of the regret bound to the fixed-weight risk curve evaluated at the selected weight, a thresholded boundary rule, and extensions to compact kernel families and to finite and growing kernel dictionaries with high-probability oracle bounds. Finite impulse response simulations with SURE-tuned, hard-selection, and trace-corrected baselines, together with the public Silverbox and Cascaded Tanks benchmarks, show that the proposed estimator retains most of the benefit of regularization when it is helpful and retreats toward ML under kernel misspecification, with an identified finite-de analyzed on the benchmarks.

Bearing-odometry-based cooperative localization has attracted increasing research interest due to its minimal infrastructure requirements, low communication bandwidth and broad applicability in complex environments. However, existing 6-DoF approaches still face challenges in rapidly obtaining accurate and reliable inter-robot pose estimation, as the system is prone to observability degeneracy under specific motion patterns. To address these issues, we first propose a closed-form 4-DoF inter-robot pose estimator, which relaxes nonlinear constraints for rotations estimation and employs error projection for translations estimation. We then conduct a theoretical analysis of the system's observability, identifying degeneracy under two typical motion patterns: collinear and shape-preserving formations. The analysis further shows that the proposed 4-DoF system requires less stringent motion excitation for observability, enabling reliable estimation under a broader range of cooperative maneuvers. Furthermore, an observability test module is introduced to autonomously determine the optimal estimation instant, eliminating reliance on a predefined fixed-length sliding window. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves higher estimation accuracy with significantly low computational cost, and the observability test module ensures estimation reliability while minimizing the data collection interval.

As machine learning models and datasets continue to grow, developing complex models has become increasingly computationally demanding. Knowledge distillation reduces deployment cost by compressing a large, well-trained teacher model into a compact student model, but it does not address settings where constructing the teacher itself is the bottleneck. Motivated by this challenge, we introduce Knowledge Cascade (KCas), a reverse knowledge distillation framework that uses information from a small, inexpensive student model to guide the development of a more complex teacher model. Although this direction is counterintuitive because the teacher typically has greater representational capacity, we show that student-to-teacher transfer can be principled when supported by statistical scaling relationships. We first develop KCas for nonparametric multivariate functional estimation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces via smoothing splines, where selecting multiple smoothing parameters is a major computational bottleneck. KCas transfers student-selected smoothing parameters to the full-sample regime through asymptotic scaling laws, substantially reducing computational cost for high-dimensional and large-scale datasets while retaining theoretical guarantees. Beyond smoothing splines, we illustrate the same principle through kernel density estimation and deep learning hyperparameter transfer. Simulations and real-data experiments show that KCas achieves substantial computational savings while maintaining strong statistical performance, and can sometimes outperform the corresponding full-sample procedure.

We consider the problem of sequentially approximating functions of each element in a slowly-varying sequence, i.e. one where the magnitude $α_i$ of the difference between the elements at positions $i$ and $i-1$ is small. Recent work on implicit trace estimation shows that when $α_t$ is small, reusing queries to past sequence elements can reduce the overall cost [Dharangutte & Musco, NeurIPS2021; Woodruff et al., NeurIPS2022]. We introduce a framework generalizing this to a variety of linear and nonlinear functions on diverse vector spaces, obtaining novel sequential estimation results for matrix powers, spectral densities, Monte Carlo integration, and a boundary value problem from partial differential equations~(PDEs). Furthermore, we develop a novel algorithm for use with this framework that locally scales the estimation budget with $α_t$, obtaining sharper path-length-style variation bounds of form $\mathcal O(\sum_{i=1}^mα_i)$ on the cost of estimating a sequence of length $m$. This improves upon the previous implicit trace estimation bound of $\mathcal O(m\cdot\max_iα_i)$ [Dharangutte & Musco, NeurIPS~2021], which is achieved by fixing the query budget using the worst-case $α_i$ and is thus inefficient for stable sequences with rare bursts. Lastly, while all past work assumes a known bound on $α_i$, we show in certain cases how the changes can be estimated on-the-fly with (nearly) no added cost. In summary, our framework makes the sequential approximation toolkit general-purpose and adaptive while improving upon state-of-the-art-guarantees for dynamic trace estimation.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

We develop a comprehensive theory for regularized M-estimation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Under mild conditions on the loss we establish existence and measurability of the estimator, covering a wide range of convex and non-convex losses, including bounded robust losses. We further prove sharp rates of convergence with an explicit bias-variance decomposition governed by a novel complexity measure. We show that the variance is independent of misspecification, while the bias depends on a source condition parameter known in the learning literature. For tensor product Sobolev spaces we obtain new rates that connect to spaces of functions with dominating mixed smoothness, substantially extending existing results and explaining why these estimators circumvent the curse of dimensionality. Our methodology, combining elements from both functional analysis and empirical process theory, allows for an asymptotic linearisation of the objective function that avoids both closed-form solutions and global Lipschitz assumptions, and may be of independent interest. The estimators are implemented in C++ and theory is supported by numerical experiments.

Distribution shift between training and deployment is a pervasive challenge for modern AI systems. In many cases, the target marginals of covariates and response are known or specified through population-level observations, boundary conditions, properties of simulator configurations, or alignment-time distributional constraints. Such knowledge may provide valuable side information for regression estimation. We study this problem in the multivariate linear regression setting with a stable conditional mean $E[Y\mid X]$ across source and target, and identify the hybrid-loss estimator, which jointly incorporates both target marginals, as a benchmark target-aware estimator. Its direct computation, however, requires solving a coupled nonlinear optimization that is expensive at scale. Our main contribution is to develop and evaluate two computationally tractable alternatives: a constrained moment-matching estimator and a two-stage estimator that augments ordinary least squares with a calibration step. For all three estimators, we derive and compare closed-form asymptotic mean squared errors, yielding conditions under which the tractable alternatives match or closely approximate the hybrid benchmark, and regimes in which they do not. Monte Carlo experiments across three controlled shift regimes validate the theoretical results, investigate the accuracy-runtime tradeoffs among the three estimators, and translate into guidance on estimator choice. In particular, the two-stage estimator nearly matches the hybrid benchmark in the high signal-to-noise regime at essentially no additional cost, providing theoretical grounding for empirical observations in nonlinear settings.

We show that replacing the standard MSE denoising loss in diffusion models with a nonlinear transformation induced by an f-divergence yields a simple robust training surrogate that empirically improves performance under data contamination, with small additional computational overhead. The theoretical foundation rests on a local divergence construction: under the Gaussian reverse-kernel structure of DDPM, each per-step likelihood ratio follows a lognormal distribution parameterized by a scalar mismatch, so the conditional f-divergence at each step reduces to a one-dimensional function of the denoising error. Summing these local divergences yields a training objective that unifies diffusion training as divergence induced weighted denoising, where the derivative of the induced divergence acts as a residual-space influence weight that controls the contribution of each sample. Bounded-influence divergences (Hellinger, negative exponential) suppress large error samples, with Hellinger yielding an explicit exponential weight, connecting the framework to robust M-estimation. Empirically, on CIFAR-10 under 30% contamination, NED reduces FID from 93.0 (KL) to 77.5, while also outperforming standard robust losses such as Huber and clipped MSE.

Local learning coefficient (LLC) probes offer a singularity-aware view of neural-network training, but mean-energy methods require a local loss baseline that is ambiguous at transient checkpoints. Thermodynamic variance avoids this input; under mini-batch evaluation, however, direct variance mixes cross-state loss fluctuations with same-state noise. We operationalize this route with the \emph{Shift-Invariant Variance Estimator} (SIVE), which estimates and subtracts the latter component using repeated evaluations. Conditional on any fixed retained path, unclipped SIVE is unbiased for noiseless path variance without requiring MCMC stationarity. The finite-scale diagnostic remains indexed by localization scale $h$---even a locally linear loss has tether-dependent variance---while interpretation as a Real Log Canonical Threshold (RLCT) requires additional stationary low-temperature conditions. Toy experiments recover calibrated finite-scale targets. At the primary localization scale, all five MNIST MLP trajectories exhibit a mid-training trough followed by a rebound in SIVE, while Raw Variance decreases from Epoch 40 to 100 in every trajectory. Across four localization scales, the joint early-drop/late-rise criterion is met in 19 of 20 trajectory--scale pairs. At Epoch 40, the estimated observation-noise correction accounts for $77.5\%$ of Raw Variance. Same-state debiasing thus reveals a reproducible turning structure masked by time-varying observation noise.

Conformal selection aims to identify test candidates whose unknown responses fall in a target region while controlling the false discovery rate. Existing methods often inherit prediction-oriented nonconformity scores, such as residual or clipped residual scores, from conformal prediction. We argue that the natural score for selection is instead the target-membership probability. This score directly addresses the binary event being selected, and any monotone transform of it gives the Neyman--Pearson oracle ranking at a fixed null selection level. This distinction is irrelevant for mean-monotone targets, where conventional scores induce essentially the same ranking, but becomes important for interval-valued, variance-driven, multimodal, or multi-condition targets, where prediction-oriented scores can be misaligned with selection power. We study membership-score-based conformal selection and isolate one conformal calibration route, Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection (NCCS), which ranks test scores against confirmed non-target calibration examples. Under null exchangeability, NCCS yields finite-sample valid null p-values, which can be combined with BY under arbitrary dependence or with BH under standard positive-dependence conditions. Experiments support the score principle: membership scores match conventional scores on mean-monotone targets, substantially improve over mean-score selection on variance-driven targets, and, when calibrated by NCCS, trade power for finite-sample null validity in rare-target regimes where direct empirical-FDP thresholding can be anti-conservative.

We consider the parameter estimation problem in logistic regression with Gaussian design: the estimation of a fixed unknown parameter $θ^*\in \mathbb{R}^d$ ($\|θ^*\|_2\ge 1$) from $n$ i.i.d. samples $\{(x_i,y_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where $x_i\sim N(0,I_d)$ and $y_i|x_i \sim {\rm Bernoulli}(1/(1+\exp(-x_i^\top θ^*)))$. Our main aim is to characterize the finite-sample estimation performance and convergence behavior of gradient descent (GD) on the maximum likelihood objective (i.e., the logistic loss). Under small $O(1)$ stepsize and $0$ initialization, we show that GD linearly converges to a small neighborhood of $θ^*$ achieving an $\ell_2$ error of order $O(\sqrt{\|θ^*\|_2^5d/n})$. This substantially goes beyond existing theoretical results that lack non-asymptotic estimation error rate and exhibit much slower parameter convergence. We also establish a faster local linear convergence to the same statistical error under a large $Θ(\|θ^*\|_2)$ stepsize. The main technical component is to show that the gradient of the logistic loss satisfies a certain approximate invertibility condition (AIC). To that end, we uniformly control the deviation of the gradient from its population counterpart by covering and peeling arguments, and then show that the population GD is a contraction by a delicate analysis based on the eigenvalues of population Hessian matrices. Finally, we build upon the recent work Matsumoto and Mazumdar (2025) and devise a novel efficient estimator that attains a sharper rate in high dimensions. This indicates that the existing non-asymptotic guarantees exhibit sub-optimal dependence on $\|θ^*\|_2$, and that in many regimes $Θ(\sqrt{\|θ^*\|_2d/n})$ is the tight estimation error rate. Numerical examples are provided to corroborate our theoretical results.

We present SCOPE (Scale-Consistent One-Pass Estimation of 3D Geometry), a novel approach for estimating 3D geometry from extended monocular video sequences, where existing methods struggle to maintain both geometric accuracy and temporal consistency across hundreds of frames. Our approach generates affine-invariant 3D point maps with shared parameters across entire sequences, enabling consistent scale-invariant representations. We introduce three key innovations: viewpoint-invariant geometry aligning multi-perspective points in a unified reference frame; appearance-invariant learning enforcing consistency across exponential timescales; and frequency-modulated positioning enabling extrapolation to sequences vastly exceeding training length. Experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate significant improvements, reducing relative point map error by 24.2% and temporal alignment error by 34.9% on ScanNet compared to state-of-the-art methods. Our approach handles challenging scenarios with complex camera trajectories and lighting variations while efficiently processing extended sequences in a single pass. Project page: https://scope3d.github.io/.

In the era of big data, subsampling became a common practice in statistical learning. By selecting a subgroup of individuals based on which the learner is trained, subsampling aims at reducing the computational cost and time of the estimation step, and ideally leads to a decrease of its energy consumption and carbon footprint. This work focuses on a nonparametric setting, in which the hypotheses set lies in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and the estimator is a minimizer of an empirical risk reweighted à la Horvitz-Thompson. By studying the asymptotic properties of this estimator, we reveal an optimal subsampling scheme (regarding the trace of the covariance operator) and show that it can be used via plug-in. A numerical study on synthetic and real-world datasets shows the practicability and the benefit of the proposed approach.

There is a precise sense in which drawing causal inferences from observational data is hard, even when identifiability is assumed. In particular, Robins and Ritov (1997) and Robins et al. (2003) showed that causal effects can be discontinuous as a function of the data distribution: two arbitrarily close data distributions might correspond to different causal effects. This is a fact independent of the choice of estimator; however, not all estimators are equally unstable. Our contribution is to surface a second layer of instability that depends on the choice of estimator. We show that many standard point estimates can be read as point summaries of multimodal distributions over the space of structural causal models. As such, estimators can jump discontinuously in the data distribution. This defines a taxonomy of estimators that admits a decision-theoretic reading: stability depends on whether the implicit loss function an estimator optimizes is aligned with the causal effect itself. Specifically, inverse propensity weighted estimators and regression estimators are examples of discontinuous summaries, while explicit posterior means and medians are shown to be continuous.

This paper presents an analysis of the observability and consistency properties of filtering-based visual-inertial navigation systems (VINS) that utilize anchored feature representations. The unobservable subspace of VINS with anchored landmark parameterizations is shown to be independent of the estimated landmark state, which leads to improved estimator consistency properties without any additional modifications. However, the unobservable subspace is still found to depend on the estimated navigation state, necessitating additional consistency-enforcing techniques. Two methods to improve the consistency of VINS with anchored feature representations are presented. Simulation results showcase that all estimators employing anchored feature paramterizations exhibit improved consistency properties compared to algorithms that estimate features resolved in a global reference frame, especially in scenarios where feature initialization may be poor. Real-world experiments on the TUM-VI dataset showcase that the use of anchored feature representations alone can yield comparable performance to consistency-improved estimators employing a global feature representation, demonstrating the benefit of using anchored feature parameterizations for VINS.

We develop finite-sample certificates for local population-risk increments $Pδ_v=R(θ_0+v)-R(θ_0)$, $v\in\mathcal D$. The primitive object is an expected-valid upper endpoint $\widehat{\mathsf U}_{\mathcal D}$ satisfying $\mathbb E\sup_{v\in\mathcal D} \{Pδ_v-\widehat{\mathsf U}_{\mathcal D}(v)\}\le0$. This uniform criterion certifies any measurable update selected from the same sample and allows penalties to depend on empirical geometry. The main construction is a cross-fitted ridge calibration for linear feature classes. A pilot fold learns the ridge metric, the complementary fold calibrates the squared mean error in that metric, and complete split averaging recovers the full empirical covariance in the directional quadratic form $\widehat q_{X,λ}$. The optimized diagnostic scale is $\{\widehat q_{X,λ}(h) \widehat r_{X,n_{\rm p},λ}^{\rm cf}/n\}^{1/2}$, and the calibrated trace factor $\widehat r_{X,n_{\rm p},λ}^{\rm cf}$ is compared with the ordinary ridge effective dimension $\widehat r_{X,λ}$. For nonsmooth losses, an exact fixed-mask decomposition $δ_v=J_v^0+R_v^\circ+C_v$ separates frozen Taylor fluctuations, good-path remainders, and interface crossings. Applying the linear and composite certificates componentwise yields endpoints for same-sample expected local search and concentrated release rules.

Online learning in non-stationary streams is often formulated as tracking a point estimate, but many applications require predicting the full data-generating distribution. We study online distributional prediction under drift and adversarial corruption. Our approach represents each candidate law through a latent cluster geometry: a variable-size configuration of centers that organizes probability mass and induces a predictive distribution. A Gibbs quasi-posterior over these configurations yields an online predictor by posterior averaging, and the resulting variable-dimensional posterior can be sampled with reversible-jump MCMC. The method therefore avoids specifying a parametric streaming law while retaining a structured latent space for uncertainty, regularization, and comparison. We evaluate performance by cumulative Wasserstein-1 regret against the time-varying true law. The analysis separates two effects: corruption perturbs the loss-based posterior update, whereas drift makes long-horizon posterior memory stale. We address the latter with a restarted variant that temporally localizes the same quasi-Bayesian update. The resulting high-probability bounds decompose into a PAC-Bayesian complexity term, a corruption-sensitive posterior perturbation term, and a dynamic optimal-transport term driven by $A_T^{\mathrm{OT}}=\sum_{t=2}^T W_2^2(p_{t-1}^*,p_t^*)$. Under bounded support, stable latent geometry, predictive-map regularity, oracle realizability, localized restart windows, sublinear transport action, and sublinear corruption budget, the restarted predictor achieves sublinear cumulative Wasserstein regret. These guarantees require no parametric model for the stream, drift mechanism, or corruption process.

Detecting distributional differences between two independent samples is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Nonparametric two-sample testing provides a principled framework for determining whether two samples are drawn from the same underlying distribution, without assuming any specific parametric form for the distribution. In this study, we propose a new two-sample test statistic based on a newly introduced integral probability metric (IPM), using a specially designed parametric discriminator class with a single node of a neural network. We show that the resulting test statistic, called PReLU-IPM, is nonparametric and establish theoretical guarantees for the associated two-sample testing procedure, PReLU-TST, including its consistency and asymptotical equivalence to nonparametric IPM-based tests under regularity conditions. By analyzing multiple simulated and real benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that PReLU-TST achieves higher power across a range of alternatives or performs comparably to its competitors, for finite samples.