Bayesian

The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a minimalist Bayesian framework that places a prior only on the location of the optimum, while eliminating nuisance parameters through profile likelihood. This yields a generalized posterior that naturally accommodates structural constraints. As a direct instantiation, we develop MINimalist Thompson Sampling (MINTS). For multi-armed bandits with mean constraints, we establish near-optimal non-asymptotic regret guarantees and sharp almost-sure asymptotic regret characterizations. In particular, MINTS attains the classical Lai--Robbins constant in the unstructured setting and automatically adapts to unimodal structure, achieving the sharp constant determined only by the immediate neighbors of the optimal arm.

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for modeling epistemic uncertainty in neural networks by treating predictions as distributions rather than deterministic values. Meanwhile, diffusion-based models for 3D molecular graph generation operate on fragile geometric structures governed by strict chemical constraints, making inference highly sensitive to uncertainty miscalibration. A largely overlooked issue is that epistemic uncertainty arising from the learned denoiser interacts with the aleatoric uncertainty intentionally injected during reverse diffusion, leading to systematic variance inflation and a mismatch between the true distribution and the simulated distribution. This effect is particularly detrimental for high-precision molecular generation, where even small deviations can violate chemical validity. In this work, we provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of how epistemic uncertainty propagates through diffusion inference and degrades sampling quality. Building on this investigation, we propose UCD (Uncertainty-Calibrated Diffusion), a simple yet effective method that calibrates the reverse diffusion process to account for epistemic uncertainty. Extensive experiments on standard 3D molecular benchmarks demonstrate that UCD consistently improves sampling quality across diverse baseline methods, establishing new state-of-the-art performance for 3D molecular diffusion. The code is available at https://github.com/jiuguaiwf/UCD.

We ask: when do Bayesian model averaging (BMA) weights over decision trees carry sufficient epistemic information to justify committed exploitation of the averaging distribution? We answer this question in closed form for Bayesian decision trees (BDTs) with Dirichlet-Multinomial leaf models and a Catalan-exponential tree-size prior (Schetinin&Jakaite, 2025), establishing a complete non-asymptotic theory of rational commitment thresholds.

The quadratic complexity of self-attention remains a bottleneck for Large Language Models (LLMs) processing ultra-long contexts. The Naive Bayes Cognitive Engine (NBCE) parallelizes long-context inference by chunking documents and routing to the lowest-entropy chunk at each decoding step. This hard-selection strategy causes semantic fragmentation during cross-chunk reasoning, as abrupt routing changes between adjacent tokens disrupt the model's contextual grounding. We present Soft-NBCE, a lightweight extension that replaces discrete chunk selection with soft entropy-weighted chunk fusion. A temperature-scaled Softmax over predictive entropies assigns continuous weights to all chunks, enabling log-space aggregation across chunk-conditioned distributions. To partially compensate for the conditional independence assumption introduced by chunking, we propose Consistency Distillation, a LoRA-based self-distillation that constrains the chunked logit distribution toward a full-context teacher via KL-divergence. On LongBench multi-hop benchmarks, Soft-NBCE with Consistency Distillation improves consistently over NBCE-style baselines (MuSiQue F1: 0.310 vs.\ 0.275 for Vanilla NBCE; HotpotQA F1: 0.479 vs.\ 0.427) while maintaining retrieval accuracy (NIAH-32K: 0.909) at O(L^2/n) peak memory.

Editing complex, long-form knowledge in Large Language Models remains a significant challenge due to the difficulty of maintaining generation coherence. Existing autoregressive methods like AnyEdit alleviate length constraints but rely on Fixed-window Chunking, which disregards logical structure and compromises consistency. To address this, we present AnyEdit++, a structure-aware framework incorporating Bayes-Chunk, an adaptive segmentation mechanism that dynamically identifies semantic boundaries based on Bayesian Surprise. We underpin this approach with a theoretical framework establishing two key principles: (1) Structural Independence: we prove that cross-segment interference is minimized when anchor keys are geometrically orthogonal (a condition naturally satisfied by our surprisal-based boundaries but violated by fixed windows), and (2) Causal Locality: we demonstrate that updates injected at these semantic peaks yield strictly superior control compared to arbitrary split points. Extensive experiments across mathematical reasoning, code generation, and narrative tasks demonstrate that AnyEdit++ achieves superior performance and robustness compared to state-of-the-art baselines, validating that structural awareness is critical for effective long-form knowledge editing.

This paper studies a one-step lookahead Bayesian optimization (BO) method and its theoretical guarantee. Although the empirical effectiveness of one-step lookahead BO methods, such as entropy search, has been studied extensively, they often rely on computationally intractable approximations, and their regret guarantees remain underdeveloped. Thus, this paper proposes a one-step lookahead BO method called optimal-point variance reduction (OVR), which requires only posterior sampling and Monte Carlo approximations. We obtain a uniform error bound over an input domain for the Monte Carlo estimation in OVR. Furthermore, we show that the regularized OVR, with the slight modification to promote exploration, achieves a vanishing Bayesian expected simple regret upper bound. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of OVR through numerical experiments.

Multi-arm bandit algorithms are increasingly used in online platforms, clinical trials, and social science experiments, but valid statistical inference on their performance remains an open challenge. After deploying bandits, a natural question is whether one can construct a confidence interval for its mean reward and assess whether it reliably outperforms a baseline policy. The total reward achieved in any single bandit deployment is random, and deploying a bandit twice on the same population typically yields different reward trajectories due to stochastic rewards. Standard statistical inference methods cannot be used because bandit algorithms introduce complex dependencies in the collected data, which violate the i.i.d. assumption underlying many classical approaches. Moreover, existing inference methods for adaptively collected data only apply to estimands that do not depend on the data-collection algorithm (such as the mean reward under a fixed action). We propose Bandit Simulation for Inference (BSI), a framework that fits a simulator of the bandit environment from observed data--either on-policy or off-policy--and uses it to estimate the mean reward under any evaluation policy, including adaptive blackbox algorithms. BSI formally propagates uncertainty in the estimated simulator parameters into the confidence interval construction. Furthermore, for BSI to be valid, it requires only weak exploration assumptions on the behavior policy and avoids importance weighting. We prove that BSI yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals, and demonstrate empirically that it maintains nominal coverage in settings where standard off-policy evaluation methods fail.

Reliable quantification of malaria dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is hindered by short, noisy, and spatially heterogeneous surveillance records. In Ghana, health-facility data from 2014 to 2023 reveal non-linear and age-specific fluctuations in hospital admissions, yet existing approaches struggle to capture stochastic variability or provide credible uncertainty bounds. This study develops a Bayesian nonlinear inference framework that integrates a cubic baseline with a damped oscillatory kernel, estimated via an affine-invariant ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. The framework accommodates limited data, models parameter uncertainty, and generates probabilistic forecasts for children under five years and individuals aged five years or more. Results show strong empirical adequacy ($R^2 = 0.9958$ for $<5$ years; $R^2 = 0.9956$ for $\geq 5$ years) with residual errors below $2\%$ and well-mixed posteriors confirming convergence. District-level analysis reveals pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with coefficients of variation ranging from $<0.07$ in urban centres such as Kumasi to $>3.3$ in peripheral districts such as Mpohor and Bia East. Forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a gradual resurgence: from 137,000 to 149,000 cases among children under five years and from 348,000 to 375,000 cases among older individuals, with uncertainty widening over time. By producing probabilistic forecasts, this Bayesian framework provides a principled tool for anticipating malaria fluctuations and strengthening data-driven decision-making in Ghana's national malaria control strategy.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies from pre-collected datasets. A bottleneck of this paradigm is managing epistemic uncertainty, which arises from limited data coverage (sample-level) and the ambiguity in identifying transition dynamics from finite data (model-level). To provide a unified quantification of these uncertainties, Bayesian RL has been proposed by treating the dynamics model as a random variable and maintaining a corresponding belief. Despite its theoretical appeal, policy optimization in Bayesian RL remains computationally challenging as it requires solving composite objectives with expectations. Prior methods either employ search-based techniques with poor computational scalability or impose restrictive posterior assumptions that sacrifice the adaptability of Bayesian RL. To address these limitations, we propose Posterior Hybrid Bayesian Belief (PhyB), which reformulates the expectation as a convex combination over a subset of dynamics models. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the objective discrepancy induced by this approximation remains bounded. Based on PhyB, we develop an iterative regularized policy optimization algorithm that provides metric-agnostic guarantees for monotonic improvement until convergence. Empirical results demonstrate that PhyB achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmarks.

Genotype-based cis-expression prediction depends on accurately modeling local regulatory architecture. We present block-sparse Bayesian sparse linear mixed model (bsBSLMM), an extension of Bayesian sparse linear mixed model (BSLMM) that incorporates linkage disequilibrium (LD)-block spike-and-slab sparsity and a transcription start site (TSS)-informed SNP inclusion prior. Across 23,098 genes from GEUVADIS European-ancestry lymphoblastoid cell lines, bsBSLMM retained more predictable genes than BSLMM, LASSO, BLUP, TIGAR elastic net, and TIGAR Dirichlet-process regression under matched evaluation criteria. Compared with BSLMM, bsBSLMM improved held-out prediction performance for most shared genes, with gains driven primarily by LD-block sparsity and further enhanced by the TSS-informed prior. Variants selected by bsBSLMM showed stronger enrichment in GM12878 DNase and H3K27ac regulatory regions than variants selected by BSLMM. In transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) analysis, bsBSLMM recovered established inflammatory bowel disease signals, including IL23R, and identified additional genome-wide significant genes not detected by BSLMM. Independent validation in the Louisiana Osteoporosis Study reproduced the increased prediction yield across ancestries and recovered biologically relevant bone mineral density pathways in downstream TWAS and gene set enrichment analyses. These results demonstrate that incorporating LD-block structure and biologically informed SNP priors improves cis-expression prediction and enhances downstream TWAS discovery.

When many reinforcement-learning policies achieve near-optimal return, a post-hoc auditor may have to distinguish among many behaviorally distinct but return-equivalent policies. We formalize this phenomenon through an occupancy-measure analogue of Rashomon capacity: the metric entropy of the near-optimal occupancy region, computed relative to an audited deployment class. Because occupancy measures identify behavior only up to occupancy equivalence, we formulate auditing at the occupancy-class level and distinguish exact local-query oracles from noisy sample-query oracles. Our main exact-query result is conditional: if the audited class contains a $2/H$-separated near-optimal packing whose local signatures are $b$-sparse, then exact local-query auditing requires $Ω(M/b)$ queries; when the packing realizes deployment-class capacity and $b=O(1)$, this becomes $Ω(2^{\Hopt^\cF(\eps)})$. We give a finite discounted hidden-branch MDP attaining this bound and show the exact Bayes success law. For noisy hidden-trigger testing, we prove a mixture lower bound of order $M/β$, where $β$ is the per-sample KL signal, yielding $Ω(2^{\Hopt^\cF(\eps)}/(ρ^2Δ^2))$ for capacity-order packings with $β=O(ρ^2Δ^2)$. We also provide a static target-recognition information lower bound, a transcript-compatible oracle-cover verification upper bound, and a canonical occupancy regularizer whose regularized audited capacity collapses when a trusted reference occupancy is available. Controlled benchmarks distinguish positive sparse-signature instances from high-capacity negative controls where exact auditing is easy, and map the noisy-trigger law to post-processed continuous-control and visual-RL auditing regimes.

Financial retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems typically rank evidence by textual relevance, but in financial markets evidence utility depends on event type, forecast horizon, and market context. We study news-triggered event-impact prediction as a point-in-time financial RAG problem. For each company-news anchor, the system retrieves financial news and SEC filing passages, appends a pre-decision market-context card, and predicts multi-horizon residual-return signals. Our method keeps the LLM frozen and adapts retrieval through an external Bayesian source memory updated from matured residual-return feedback. On a fixed 89-stock Nasdaq-oriented universe derived from the FinRL-DeepSeek/FNSPID task, using original FNSPID news and point-in-time EDGAR filing passages, Frozen Reader with Source Memory improves held-out macro-F1 from 0.438 to 0.471 and downstream portfolio Sharpe from 0.52 to 0.84 relative to Frozen Reader with No Memory. Supervised LoRA gives modest gains under static retrieval, but after source-memory adaptation, the LoRA reader does not improve over the frozen reader. These results suggest that, for financial RAG systems, learning where to retrieve can be as important as learning how to read, offering a modular route to market-feedback adaptation.

We introduce the design-model framework: a way to derive efficient recurrent sequence maps from explicit assumptions about memory. A design model writes evidence into memory by exact Bayesian filtering; a query-dependent readout produces a predictive distribution whose mean is the layer output. In our linear-Gaussian instantiation, the \emph{Bayesian Layer} propagates both a mean and a covariance: the covariance tracks uncertainty over stored associations, steering writes toward uncertain directions, attenuating gains as evidence accumulates, and preserving confident memories. The same framework unifies several sub-quadratic recurrences. Linear attention, GLA, and Mamba-2/SSD are exact filters under one design model, whereas DeltaNet and related Delta-rule models arise as covariance-reset reductions under another. Restoring the covariance yields closed-form predictions for retrieval dynamics, verified empirically, and improves robustness beyond the training regime across controlled collision studies, learned associative recall, and the Zoology MQAR benchmark; distilling Bayesian Layers into a pretrained 340M Gated DeltaNet improves RULER long-context retrieval at matched compute.

Nonlinear conservation laws are at the heart of many of the most important dynamical systems in science and engineering. In practical applications, such systems are often subject to various sources of uncertainty, e.g. due to sparse or noisy measurements. Inferring physical quantities and fields of interest then becomes an ill-posed problem which both classical numerical methods and modern deep learning-based methods struggle to treat appropriately. Recent work has framed classical numerical methods as Bayesian inference under Gaussian process priors, resulting in a physics-aware treatment of uncertainties. Following this line of work, we develop a novel numerically conservative method for uncertainty-aware simulations of nonlinear conservation laws. We use recent sparse approximation techniques to scale up to large-scale forward and inverse problems. For forward simulation, we inherit the accuracy of classical solvers while providing structured uncertainty quantification. On inverse problems, we recover posteriors over nonparametric source fields in seconds -- outperforming neural baselines that take minutes to produce a less accurate point estimate.

A central aim of deep learning theory is to characterize how neural networks make predictions in the regime of simultaneously large model and training set size. Since the limits of diverging number of model parameters and dataset size do not commute it is not clear a priori what limits exist. In this work, we shed new light on these questions by studying Bayesian inference in deep non-linear MLPs in the regime where the number of training samples ($P$), the input dimension ($N_0$), the hidden layer width ($N$), and the number of hidden layers ($L$) can all be large. We build on the Neural Covariance SDE (Li et al., 2022) to analyze predictive posteriors in the regime where $LP/N\inΘ(1)$, playing the role of an effective network depth. Our framework covers both smooth and ReLU activation functions and applies to arbitrary temperature. We find to first order in $LP/N$ a simple criterion for which data generating processes benefit from depth in the sense that larger $LP/N$ increases the Bayesian model evidence. We also give a novel derivation of a prior result from the physics literature that at least to first order in $LP/N$, the Bayesian predictive posterior is remarkably simple and is simply equivalent to that of a data-dependent kernel method.

Graph classification is a core task in graph data mining with widespread real-world applications. Recent advances in graph neural networks (GNNs) have led to substantial performance improvements for graph classification. However, existing GNNs are typically forced to make predictions even under high uncertainty or unknown conditions, resulting in unreliable decisions that can severely impact downstream tasks, particularly in safety-critical scenarios. To address this critical limitation, we propose AbstainGNN, a novel and theory-driven framework for graph classification with abstention, which enables GNNs to reject uncertain predictions instead of producing incorrect decisions. Specifically, AbstainGNN explicitly models both the predictive function and the abstention function, allowing for effective utilization of graph structural information. Moreover, unlike existing heuristic abstention methods, we theoretically characterize the trade-off between classification errors and rejection costs from a PAC-Bayesian generalization perspective, and derive a unified learning objective for model optimization. Guided by this theoretical insight, we further develop an efficient two-stage training strategy consisting of predictive function warm-start and abstention function calibration. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets show that AbstainGNN outperforms existing abstention methods, achieving superior classification performance under the same rejection rates.

Diffusion models have excellent capacity to model complex distributions of natural data, which has made them a popular and effective choice for posterior sampling in imaging inverse problems. Existing methods can incorporate any measurement model at inference time but must use an inexact approximation for the likelihood at intermediate timesteps for computational tractability. Although these approximations can often work well empirically, their downstream effect on the sampled posterior is poorly understood and can result in unexplained failures. To understand when, why, and how these likelihood approximations propagate to erroneous posterior distributions, we introduce a finite-sample perspective on posterior sampling that approximates the posterior to arbitrary precision as training set size tends towards infinity, for any forward model and prior distribution. Using this finite-sample lens, we observe that popular posterior sampling approximations tend to under- or over-estimate the spread of the posterior at intermediate timesteps, causing downstream consequences including sensitivity to early stopping time, inaccurate relative weighting of posterior modes, and hallucination, both of prior modes that are not in the posterior and likelihood modes that are not supported by the prior. Moreover, we find that the cause of these posterior errors requires neither a nonlinear measurement model nor a multimodal posterior, but can arise solely due to a multimodal prior and inaccurate posterior spread at intermediate sampling times. Our finite-sample posterior sampling approach is agnostic to the type of likelihood approximation and the type of (linear or nonlinear) forward model, and can thus serve as a drop-in diagnostic to evaluate the accuracy and failure modes of existing and future posterior samplers.

Over the past decades, numerous Image Quality Assessment (IQA) models have emerged, aiming to predict the perceptual quality of images. However, individual models are often biased toward certain types of image content or distortions, depending on the design principle and process. An intuitive idea is to harness the strengths and mitigate the weaknesses of each IQA model, by fusing the scores of multiple models into a stronger one. Here we make one of the first attempts to seek an optimal solution for the idea and propose a general framework for unsupervised IQA score fusion using deep Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimation. The proposed model conducts fine-grained uncertainty estimation at the score level to increase the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty in fused predictions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model over individual IQA models and other fusion methods. It also exhibits an interesting capability of rejecting ``bad" models in the fusion process.

Always-on edge systems must keep learning as conditions change under tight compute budgets and must detect unreliable predictions. Bayesian binary neural networks are attractive in this setting, but mean-field Bernoulli posteriors can saturate on long non-stationary streams, wiping out epistemic uncertainty and freezing plasticity. We propose BiMU, derived from a bounded-memory variational objective that balances stability, plasticity, and forgetting. BiMU combines a data term with controlled relaxation toward the prior and an uncertainty-dependent step size that prevents saturation and sustains informative uncertainty. This non-degenerate posterior enables fully online, buffer-free active querying via Monte Carlo disagreement, reducing label queries and backpropagation updates under imbalance. BiMU sustains learning and strong OOD detection on 1000-tasks Permuted-MNIST, and on OpenLORIS-Object achieves up to 32$\times$ label/update savings at matched accuracy under class imbalance and feature compression.

Parameter-efficient adaptation has made LLMs practical for domain prediction, but standard LoRA still relies on a static low-rank update and does not expose the latent interactions that often drive scientific labels. We introduce iLoRA. To our knowledge, it is the first Bayesian graph-conditioned LoRA framework. It infers a latent interaction graph from the input and uses it to generate input-conditioned LoRA updates. As a result, iLoRA learns prediction and latent interaction structure jointly, rather than training a predictor and applying interaction analysis only post hoc. We instantiate this idea for microbiome diagnosis, where disease state can depend on both species-level abundance and microbe-microbe cross-talk, and evaluate it in two complementary settings: interactive QA with human-annotated graphs, which tests latent structure recovery, and multi-cohort IBD diagnosis, which tests biomedical utility. Across both settings, iLoRA improves over strong LoRA and Bayesian adaptation baselines, recovers graphs aligned with human annotations and cohort-level microbiome associations, and provides calibrated uncertainty with moderate graph-branch overhead.

Sparse recovery in linear systems underpins applications from signal processing to high-dimensional regression. Sparse Bayesian Learning, grounded in the principle of automatic relevance determination (ARD), offers a practical Bayesian mechanism for feature sparsity via marginal likelihood optimization. Yet, its reliance on a homoscedastic noise model renders it sensitive to data contaminations such as outliers or misspecified noise, harming model fit and predictions. Instead, we propose jointly learning individual feature and sample relevancies, enabling simultaneous model and data sparsification via a single Bayesian objective. This symmetric pruning of model and data offers a natural extension that preserves conjugacy, admits closed-form updates for standard optimization procedures, and aligns with perspectives from robust regression and influence functions. Empirical results across diverse regression tasks affirm that a joint ARD approach consistently yields both sparse and robust prediction models.

Critical sequential decisions are rarely single-timescale: a strategic decision causally shapes the context in which every subsequent tactical choice is made; standard bandit and reinforcement-learning theory does not capture this causal coupling between timescales. We formalise the problem class as Nested Contextual Causal Bandits (NCCBs), a hierarchical SCM where each level's action sets the next level's context distribution, and propose Nested Causal Thompson Sampling (NCTS), which draws one mechanism-factorised belief per episode and acts recursively under it. Our main theoretical result is a causal PAC-Bayesian excess-risk bound that certifies any candidate deployment policy from historic data alone, off-policy and anytime, answering the deployment question: can we trust this agent here, and at what risk? Experiments on a hierarchical SCM show that, against a matched RFF-GP joint regression on the same function class, the factorised SCM-mechanism posterior transfers significantly better zero-shot under exogenous distribution shifts, the recursive meta-to-inner commit significantly dominates the joint-commit alternative in distribution, and the certificate significantly contracts as offline data accumulates. Combining these results, we establish progressive certified handover, a safe-deployment method: each timescale flips from a legacy controller to NCTS when gains can be certified, independently of the others.

The scaling limit where both the size of the training set $P$ and the width $N$ of a deep neural network grow at the same rate, the so-called proportional-width regime, has been intensely studied for shallow, single-hidden-layer networks. However, extending these non-perturbative results from shallow architectures to deep non-linear networks has proven very challenging. Here we present an effective approximate approach to predict the generalization performance of Bayesian multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) of fixed depth $L$ on arbitrary high-dimensional data. We propose an equivalent Wishart Ansatz to capture the dominant stochastic fluctuations of the hierarchical empirical kernels of MLPs. This allows us to perform a large deviation analysis for the partition function of MLPs in the proportional limit, expressed in terms of a renormalized NNGP kernel. In this description, even strong representation learning in the proportional limit is encoded in at most $L$ scalar order parameters, determined self-consistently. Extending the approach to convolutional architectures (CNNs), we identify a hierarchical local kernel renormalization mechanism, which allows to quantify more complex data-dependent transformations of the large-width kernel in CNNs due to finite-width effects. We test our effective theory against sampling experiments from the Bayesian posterior of finite deep neural networks with depths $L \sim O(10)$ and $P\sim O(10^3)$ on classic benchmark datasets, finding overall very good agreement together with two distinct types of systematic deviations.

While parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods like low-rank adaptation (LoRA) are standard for large language models, principled estimation of epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. Recent results in the LoRA regime suggest that discrete multi-mode approaches such as deep ensembles offer little benefit over single-mode methods. This contradicts broader observations in deep learning, where ensembling independent optima typically improves generalization, and linking these modes through continuous low-loss valleys further enhances Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Whether such structure exists in the LoRA space and whether it yields functional diversity missed by local or discrete methods has not been studied. We introduce LoRA-Curve, a segmented Bézier curve parameterization in the LoRA space, with two variants: a free configuration that jointly optimizes all control points, and an anchored configuration that connects independently fine-tuned LoRA optima. We prove pathwise continuity and Lipschitz regularity of the loss along the curve and empirically show, across reasoning and classification benchmarks with Qwen2.5 7B, that linear interpolation encounters loss barriers, while our anchored multi-segment curves connect independent optima through continuous low-loss valleys. Combined with flat-minima perturbations and a Jensen-Shannon divergence regularizer, LoRA-Curve yields measurably higher mutual information of the predictive distribution without sacrificing performance, and links continuous parameter-space traversal to functional diversity.

Solving high-dimensional PDE-governed inverse problems is often challenging due to complex non-Gaussian posterior distributions, expensive forward model evaluations, and misspecified prior information. To address these issues, we propose a deep adaptive dimension-reduction Bayesian inference framework based on the Variational Flow (VF) model. Since standard normalizing flows are restricted by bijective mappings and cannot directly reduce dimensions, VF overcomes this limitation by integrating VAE-based nonlinear dimension reduction with dual normalizing flows for the latent prior and encoder. This design provides a strictly higher evidence lower bound than VAE and allows more flexible approximation of complex posterior distributions. We further introduce an iterative prior updating strategy that gradually moves the prior mean toward high-probability posterior regions, avoiding manual prior tuning. These components form a closed adaptive loop together with an adaptively fine-tuned Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) surrogate: VF generates posterior-concentrated samples to refine the surrogate, while the updated surrogate further improves posterior inference. Numerical experiments on a 100-dimensional Rosenbrock problem and three standard PDE-governed inverse problems show that our method delivers competitive or superior accuracy compared with MCMC, UKI, and SVGD baselines across all tested configurations, with the most pronounced advantages emerging in challenging scenarios such as high-noise observations and high-dimensional parameter spaces.

We study minimal attention-only transformers under all-token corruption and show they admit a two-stage empirical Bayes interpretation. A single attention step computes a kernel-weighted posterior mean with respect to the empirical distribution defined by the context. Depth refines this distribution through particle dynamics (Stage 1), while a long-range skip-connection carries the noisy input as a query for posterior inference (Stage 2), revealing distinct statistical roles for depth and attention residuals. The framework isolates a minimal setting in which the context itself induces a depth-dependent energy landscape governing in-context inference. We show that effective denoising can emerge without an explicit noise schedule: a fixed kernel bandwidth and finite integration horizon suffice, yielding a principled depth-noise relationship. We further establish a posterior-mean recovery guarantee for a class of well-behaved priors, where the empirical estimator converges to the Bayes-optimal predictor under asymptotic conditions. Connecting these dynamics to reverse-diffusion limits, our results provide a statistical interpretation of attention as in-context inference via sample-based posterior estimation, without explicit density modeling.

Improving the quality of model-generated summaries, especially factuality, the accuracy of a summary with respect to its source content, remains a challenge. While reranking could select the optimal output from multiple generated candidates, it is limited to only using the source as guidance, resulting in unreliable summaries. To address this limitation, we propose ConSUM that reranks candidate summaries by considering two factors: consistency to the source document and consensus among the other candidates. Consensus is established using Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) decoding over the set of generated summaries, while ensuring consistency by employing factuality-aware metrics that compare the summary against the source. Rigorous testing demonstrates that our system is competitive with existing methods, with human evaluations further confirming that its generated summaries are preferred over those from other systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/naist-nlp/ConSUM .

Low-channel wearable electroencephalography (EEG) is attractive for long-term monitoring, but four frontal electrodes provide only a sparse and spatially biased sampling of the scalp potential field. Virtual-channel methods should therefore be framed not as recovery of independent unmeasured brain activity, but as prior-guided conditional inference of posterior predictive scalp-potential representations at target electrode locations. We present FAVC-Net, a compact frequency-calibrated virtual-channel inference network that estimates 13 target channels from Fp1, Fp2, F7, and F8. The model combines shared multi-scale source encoding, source-state embeddings, target-conditioned signed source-block mixing, GATv2-based attention refinement, attention-consistent skip fusion, and weak Welch power spectral density calibration. The generator is trained as a task-agnostic reconstruction module, without class-label, classification, or CSP-like discriminative constraints, so that the virtual montage remains tied to conditional scalp-potential estimation rather than to a specific downstream decision. On the PRED+CT dataset, FAVC-Net achieved the best joint waveform-spectral operating point among neural and interpolation baselines. Its time-domain gains were modest, whereas log-spectral distance and PSD KL divergence were reduced by 30.50% and 38.94% relative to the strongest non-FAVC comparator. Under wearable-like source perturbations, the model preserved spectral fidelity and channel-frequency texture, with anti-collapse benefits most evident under EMG-like bursts and mixed stress. These results support virtual EEG channels as montage-compatible, frequency-calibrated posterior predictive representations derived from sparse frontal measurements, not as independent substitutes for physically recorded electrodes.

The distortion-perception (D-P) tradeoff is a fundamental phenomenon of Bayesian inverse problems, which characterizes the inherent tension between distortion performance and perceptual quality. Enabling flexible traversal of the D-P tradeoff at inference time is crucial for practical applications. Despite the recent success of diffusion models in zero-shot inverse problem solving, efficient and principled strategies for D-P traversal in diffusion-based inverse algorithms remain inadequately characterized. In this paper, we propose a stage-wise framework for realizing D-P traversal using a single diffusion model in zero-shot inverse problems. Our proposed method, termed MAP-RPS, starts with an MAP estimation stage that approximates the MMSE solution and provides a low-distortion initialization, followed by a re-noised posterior sampling stage that progressively improves perceptual quality. We provide theoretical analyses for both stages, establishing the validity and effectiveness of the proposed design. Furthermore, we extend MAP-RPS to the latent space, yielding LMAP-RPS, which enjoys broader applicability by leveraging large-scale pre-trained latent diffusion backbones. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAP-RPS and LMAP-RPS enable more effective D-P traversal on various tasks, while also exhibiting strong performance as efficient solvers for real-world inverse problems.

Several important learning tasks can be formulated as minimizing an entropy-regularized objective over an appropriate space of probability distributions. Mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD) facilitate computation in this general context, casting the minimizer as the invariant distribution of a McKean--Vlasov process, which can be numerically discretized using $N$ particles and thus simulated. However, simulating this interacting particle system has computational complexity of order $N^2$. Motivated by recent research into \emph{kernel thinning}, we propose \texttt{KT-MFLD}, in which each particle interacts only with a thinned particle coreset of size $\mathcal{O}(N^{\frac{1}{2}})$. \texttt{KT-MFLD} thus reduces the computational complexity to order $N^{\frac{3}{2}}$ while, under mild regularity conditions, achieving the same convergence guarantees (up to logarithmic factors) as MFLD. Our theoretical analysis is empirically confirmed on tasks including the training of student-teacher neural networks, quantization with maximum mean discrepancy, and computation of predictively-oriented posteriors in a post-Bayesian framework.

Simulation-based inference with neural posterior estimation (NPE) often yields overconfident and unreliable posteriors under limited simulation budgets. To address this, we propose DRO-NPE, a distributionally robust approach that replaces the standard NPE objective with a worst-case loss over a Wasserstein ambiguity set. We introduce KL-based metrics for miscoverage and miscalibration, and use these to show that the DRO-NPE objective controls overfitting and reduces posterior overconfidence. Our method is tractable, parallelisable, and readily integrates with standard normalising flows. Across benchmark SBI tasks, DRO-NPE consistently improves coverage and calibration, while narrowing the gap between empirical and population NPE loss, leading to more reliable inference in low-simulation regimes.

Standard transformer architectures apply a single attention mechanism uniformly across all tokens and sequence positions, irrespective of local context or computational budget. We propose Meta-Attention, a framework that dynamically routes each token to the most appropriate attention strategy -- full softmax attention, linear (kernel) attention, or sliding-window local attention -- via a Bayesian Meta-Controller. Unlike prior routing approaches that use deterministic or prior-free learned routing, the Meta-Controller treats per-token mechanism selection as posterior inference under a compute-aware Dirichlet prior: routing weights are the output of an amortised variational posterior q(alpha | x_t; phi) trained with an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) objective that jointly encodes task performance and attention-mechanism cost. This design produces principled routing uncertainty estimates that govern the soft-to-hard routing transition, mitigates routing collapse without ad hoc load-balancing losses, and yields better compute-performance trade-offs than deterministic or prior-free learned routing at negligible overhead. Phase 1 empirical results on a Tiny LM benchmark confirm core predictions: the Bayesian controller's learned routing distribution implies a projected normalised FLOP cost of 25.1% under hard routing, vs. 59.3% for the prior-free baseline (-34.2 pp), and reduces routing entropy from 55.8% to 43.3% (-12.5 pp), demonstrating that the Dirichlet prior prevents routing collapse while the non-Bayesian model defaults to full attention. We present the Bayesian architecture, ELBO training objective, and a Phase 1 PyTorch prototype validating forward-pass correctness, posterior diversity, and a controlled ablation against a prior-free baseline. Code available at: https://github.com/KFEAL/meta-attention

Knowledge distillation is a powerful method for model compression, enabling the efficient deployment of complex deep learning models (teachers), including large language models. However, its underlying statistical mechanisms remain unclear, and uncertainty evaluation is often overlooked, especially in real-world scenarios requiring diverse teacher expertise. To address these challenges, we introduce \textit{Multi-Teacher Bayesian Knowledge Distillation} (MT-BKD), where a distilled student model learns from multiple teachers within the Bayesian framework. Our approach leverages Bayesian inference to capture inherent uncertainty in the distillation process. We introduce a teacher-informed prior, integrating external knowledge from teacher models and task-specific training data, offering better generalization, robustness, and scalability. Additionally, an entropy-based weighting mechanism adaptively adjusts each teacher's influence, allowing the student to combine multiple sources of expertise effectively. MT-BKD enhances the interpretability of the student model's learning process, improves predictive accuracy, and provides uncertainty quantification. We validate MT-BKD on both synthetic and real-world tasks, including protein subcellular location prediction and image classification. Our experiments show improved performance and robust uncertainty quantification, highlighting the strengths of our MT-BKD framework.

Causal discovery is a cornerstone of scientific reasoning, yet whether large language models can perform it reliably remains an open question. Recent benchmarks show that even fine-tuned models plateau on simple causal graphs and degrade as complexity grows, but why they fail has not been established. We prove the failure is fundamental: supervised fine-tuning, direct preference optimization, and in-context learning all produce predictors that cannot distinguish between causal graphs generating similar observational data, and any attempt to do so requires the model's internal representations to grow unboundedly, violating the very conditions under which these methods work. We formalize this as a kernel obstruction theorem, establishing that the limitation is intrinsic to the learning paradigm, \emph{not any particular model or dataset}. We propose Agentic Causal Bayesian Optimization (A-CBO), wherein a frozen language model serves as an interventional oracle answering targeted queries about intervention effects, while an external Bayesian loop concentrates beliefs over candidate graphs in logarithmically many rounds. Because the decision operates outside the space where the obstruction applies, A-CBO provably converges while the underlying model remains unchanged. On Corr2Cause, A-CBO matches fine-tuned baselines without any training. On Extended Corr2Cause, a new benchmark scaling to 24 variables with 18K test samples, A-CBO significantly outperforms both fine-tuning and preference optimization, with the advantage growing

Flow and diffusion generative models have established themselves as widely adopted density estimators for simulation-based inference (SBI), extending naturally from neural posterior estimation to likelihood and joint density estimation. Their principled optimization objectives and freedom from architectural constraints have driven rapid adoption across the natural sciences. Yet the most widely used SBI libraries remain PyTorch-based, leaving researchers who develop their forward models and analysis pipelines in JAX without a native option. We present GenSBI, an open-source library that implements flow matching, score matching, and denoising diffusion entirely in JAX. The library offers three transformer-based architectures - SimFormer, Flux1, and a novel Flux1Joint that extends gate-modulated transformer blocks to joint density estimation - all interchangeable through a unified interface that decouples generative method, neural backbone, and inference mode. GenSBI provides an end-to-end workflow from training through posterior calibration (SBC, TARP, LC2ST) and supports custom architectures with domain-specific embedding networks. We validate the framework on standard SBI benchmarks, achieving near-ideal mean C2ST scores (0.50-0.56, where 0.50 is ideal) on SBIBM tasks with minimal per-task tuning and well-calibrated posterior coverage across all tested configurations. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/aurelio-amerio/GenSBI.

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a principled framework for data-efficient design of sequential experiments. However, existing BED methods are unable to adapt to dynamic constraints inherent in real-world tasks due to budget limitations, varying costs, or physical constraints that restrict how designs evolve over time. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to BED that enables constrained optimization of experimental designs by combining offline pre-training of an amortized policy and a posterior network with online multi-step lookahead planning using scenario trees. We empirically demonstrate that our method yields substantially more informative design sequences than existing methods across a range of constrained BED tasks, while incurring only a modest additional computational overhead.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently emerged as a powerful approach for Bayesian prediction tasks, approximating the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) through in-context learning. Despite their strong empirical performance and ability to go beyond point predictions, theoretical understandings of the algorithmic capability of transformers to learn distributions in context are still lacking. Focusing on Gaussian process regression problems, we show by construction that transformers can implement a gradient descent algorithm targeting the posterior predictive mean and variance, followed by nonlinear mappings that yield binned probabilities of PPD. We study the error bounds of the approximated PPD in terms of attention depth and bin resolution. Based on these results, we further demonstrate the key role of normalization and the choice of attention depth in enabling the extrapolation abilities of transformers beyond the pretraining sample size range. We conduct simulations that corroborate our findings, providing insight into the expressivity of PFNs targeting PPDs and how architectural choices may influence generalization capabilities.

Generative posterior sampling using diffusion models has emerged as a dominant paradigm for solving inverse problems in imaging, which usually consists of three main components: data consistency (DC) guidance, classifier-free guidance (CFG) and stochasticity. While prior arts have focused on how to develop each or all components, less attention has given to how to schedule them, leading to heuristically fixed or partially adjusted suboptimal schedules. In this work, we argue that the interactions among all three components in terms of scheduling are crucial for significantly improved performance in solving inverse problems in imaging. Our analysis shows that aggressive CFG early in sampling conflict with DC guidance, while stochasticity brings the trajectory back to higher-probability regions. Based on these findings, we propose Triadic Dynamics Aware Posterior Sampling (TriPS), which reformulates posterior sampling as a time-varying control problem and optimizes schedules following a triadic trend of decreasing DC and stochasticity scales alongside increasing CFG scale. TriPS achieves this through two strategies: template-based search over functional priors for reliable baseline schedules, and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)-based reinforcement learning for more flexible temporal curves. Experiments demonstrate TriPS outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in data fidelity and perceptual realism.

Amortized inference promises fast test-time Bayesian inference, but existing methods are inherently tied to fixed models. Extending amortization to unseen models typically requires retraining or costly test-time finetuning. In this paper, we ask: is it possible to build a single inference network capable of generalizing across varying priors, likelihoods, and dimensionality? We introduce Amortized Factor Inference Networks (AFINs), a family of encode-merge-decode inference networks built on dimension-independent modules that map a model specification and its observations to the parameters of a variational posterior. Experimentally, a single trained AFIN achieves posterior accuracy comparable to NUTS and several variational inference methods, while requiring 2 to 4 orders of magnitude less test-time compute. Code is available at https://github.com/joohwanko/AFINs.

Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) integrates mechanistic knowledge, typically in the form of partial differential equations (PDE), into data-driven models. Despite strong empirical performance, its statistical generalisation properties remain poorly understood, particularly in the regression setting with unbounded losses. Existing analyses rely on approximation or stability arguments and do not fully capture how physical structure influences generalisation from finite data. In this work, we develop a PAC-Bayesian framework for PIML that provides high-probability generalisation guarantees in the presence of unbounded losses. We adopt a multi-task perspective that jointly treats data fidelity, PDE residuals, initial and boundary conditions, avoiding the looseness induced by standard union-bound approaches. Our analysis leverages the structure of physics-informed objectives to derive novel bounds where the complexity scales with input-gradient norms of the losses, revealing a direct link between physical regularity and generalisation. We instantiate this framework under Sobolev and Poincaré-type assumptions, yielding two classes of bounds that trade off statistical complexity and smoothness in different regimes. Building on these results, we propose a self-bounding-aware learning algorithm that directly optimises tractable surrogates of the derived bounds, along with a practical procedure to estimate the associated constants in realistic settings. Empirical evaluations on standard PDE benchmarks demonstrate that our bounds are non-vacuous, significantly tighter than union-bound baselines, and can be effectively minimised during training. Overall, our results provide a principled statistical foundation for the generalisation of physics-informed models.

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) selects experiments to maximize information gain about model parameters. However, in decision-critical settings, reducing parameter uncertainty does not necessarily improve downstream decisions, as only specific parameter directions relevant to the objective truly matter. We propose GoBOED, a goal-driven BOED framework that directly optimizes experimental designs for a specified decision-making objective. GoBOED combines an amortized variational posterior surrogate with a differentiable convex decision layer, enabling gradient-based design optimization that is fully decision-focused. We theoretically show that GoBOED gradients are insensitive to parameter directions irrelevant to the decision objective, providing a formal justification for why goal-driven design achieves equivalent decision quality over a wider set of experimental designs than information-gain maximization. Empirically, across source localization, epidemic management, and pharmacokinetic control, GoBOED identifies designs that better align with downstream decision objectives and reveals that near-optimal design windows are substantially wider than those predicted by goal-agnostic BOED approaches.

Bayesian inverse design provides a principled framework for inferring aerodynamic geometries from sparse flow observations while quantifying uncertainty. However, its practical use in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is severely limited by the cost of repeated high-fidelity simulations required for gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. While surrogate models are commonly proposed to reduce this cost, their effect on posterior geometry and uncertainty, especially for shock-dominated flows, remains poorly understood. In this work, we demonstrate that neural operator surrogates can be embedded directly within the MCMC inference loop while preserving posterior structure. Using a fully Bayesian inverse formulation of quasi-one-dimensional nozzle flow, we demonstrate that geometry parameterization plays a decisive role in identifiability and posterior conditioning, with cubic B-splines yielding stable and physically meaningful uncertainty estimates. Building on this formulation, a Deep Operator Network trained on CFD-generated data is substituted for the CFD solver within a No-U-Turn Sampler, while keeping the likelihood model, priors, and sampling configuration unchanged. Across sparse to fully observed regimes, surrogate-based inference reproduces the posterior geometry and uncertainty trends of the CFD reference. As a result of surrogate integration, total inference time is reduced to under one second, corresponding to a speedup exceeding three orders of magnitude. In addition, a direct inverse neural operator is examined as a deterministic alternative for inverse design, enabling single-shot geometry reconstruction without posterior sampling. These results demonstrate that neural operator-accelerated Bayesian inference enables practical, uncertainty-aware inverse design workflows for aerodynamic applications.

Gaussian processes with stationary kernels on bounded domains exhibit inflated posterior variance near the boundary. Despite being a long-recognized artifact in geostatistics and a source of over-exploration in Bayesian optimization, the causes and effects of boundary-induced acquisition bias are underexplored. We trace the root cause to a simple geometric mechanism: the truncation of the kernel correlation neighborhood at the domain boundary creates an observation-independent distortion that worsens with dimensionality. We show how this distortion manifests across three acquisition classes: variance maximization concentrates selections at the corners, whereas negative integrated posterior variance and expected predictive information gain move selections inward to axis-aligned interior shells. These patterns arise without reference to any objective function, meaning that acquisition behavior can be dominated by kernel geometry rather than the desired task-specific uncertainty. To quantify this, we introduce a function-free selection-profile diagnostic for arbitrary acquisitions, kernels, and bounded-domain geometries.

As large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems scale to handle increasingly complex tasks, balancing structural stability and dynamic adaptability becomes increasingly challenging. Existing systems typically adopt either structure-centric methods, committing to structures determined upfront that limit fine-grained control, or orchestration-centric methods, adapting decisions dynamically while leaving coordination structure implicit and unstable. To address this challenge, we revisit multi-agent coordination from a probabilistic perspective, casting it as posterior inference over the joint distribution of structure and orchestration. We introduce MACA, an automated coordination framework that learns a task- and budget-conditioned structural prior over agent participation and interactions. This prior guides a policy-based orchestration as an approximation to posterior inference, enabling efficient solutions with fine-grained control. Across benchmarks, MACA outperforms adaptive multi-agent baselines by an average of 8.42% while using 43.19% fewer tokens. Further investigation reveals that joint adaptation of structure and orchestration suppresses redundant interactions, converging coordination toward task-effective execution.

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged as an efficient, sampling-free strategy for uncertainty estimation. A series of EDL variants have been proposed to address specific limitations of the original framework, achieving notable success. However, the underlying theoretical structure of EDL and the relationships among these variants have received limited systematic investigation. In this work, we establish a principled theoretical foundation for EDL by interpreting it within a generalized Bayesian framework that includes prior specification, posterior update, and training objective. We further characterize evidential uncertainty from a Bayesian distributional uncertainty viewpoint, established via asymptotic analysis. Building on this perspective, we further propose Generalized Evidential Deep Learning (GEDL), a unified and extensible framework that explicitly disentangles the roles of individual components and systematically relates GEDL to existing variants. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GEDL yields comparable results on classification, uncertainty estimation and OOD detections, with theoretical grounding.

Concerns about algorithmic bias and fairness have increased as artificial intelligence has been incorporated into high-stakes decision-making. Traditional Naive Bayes classifiers, while efficient and interpretable, lack fairness-awareness mechanisms and perpetuate historical biases in sensitive domains such as hiring, credit scoring, and criminal justice. This study develops a fairness-aware extension of the Naive Bayes classifier that mitigates bias while maintaining computational efficiency. We propose the Bias Mitigating Naive Bayes (BMNB) classifier, integrating in-processing and post-processing interventions. The in-processing stage employs a blended likelihood approach combining group-specific and pooled likelihood estimates through a tunable blending parameter alpha to balance fairness and accuracy. The post-processing stage applies output calibration with adaptive thresholding to fine-tune group-specific decision boundaries. Experimental results indicate that BMNB attains Disparate Impact (DI) values of 1.000, 1.171, and 0.997 and Equal Opportunity Difference (EOD) values of -0.217, -0.226, and -0.053 on the Adult, ProPublica, and Framingham datasets, respectively, while maintaining computational efficiency. Ablation studies confirm that the combination of blended likelihood and adaptive thresholding yields superior performance compared to either technique in isolation.

In online reinforcement learning, data scarcity creates epistemic uncertainty that makes robustness important early in learning, whereas sufficient exploration is needed to learn the true-environment optimal policy. We study this time-varying robustness--exploration trade-off through a quantile Bayesian risk-aware Markov decision process (BR-MDP), in which the quantile level controls how posterior uncertainty enters the Bellman backup. We characterize this control through an asymptotic normality result for the difference between the quantile BR-MDP value and the value in the true environment. The result implies that upper/lower-tail quantiles induce optimism/pessimism towards epistemic uncertainty, and the magnitude of the optimism/pessimism decreases as data accumulate. Building on this characterization, we propose an online Bayesian risk-aware algorithm with an adaptive quantile schedule that emphasizes robustness early and gradually encourages exploration of less-visited state--action pairs. We establish sublinear Bayesian regret bounds with respect to both the true optimal value and the optimal BR-MDP robust value. Numerical experiments demonstrate strong performance in both exploration-demanding and exploration-costly environments.

The neural-network denoising functions which form the backbone of image diffusion models are remarkably consistent in their generalization behaviour across a wide variety of network architectures and training procedure hyperparameters. A recent line of research has sought to model the outputs of these networks by aggregating posterior weighted averages of training dataset patches. In this work, we consolidate these approaches into a unified model class which we call Filtered Posterior Mean Collections (FPMCs). We define this model class using query precision vectors, response weights, and source distributions, and illustrate that existing methods are recoverable with specific choices of these design axes. Investigating each axis in turn, we find that FPMC performance can be improved with soft relaxations of prior patch-based methods, and through augmentations of source distributions. Applying these findings to an existing FPMC, we demonstrate consistent sample improvement across three natural image datasets.

Approximate inference over inducing variables is the central computational bottleneck of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Existing methods either fit an explicit density $q_φ(\bU)$ by an ELBO (DSVI, IPVI, DDVI, DBVI) or sample by MCMC (SGHMC). We instead frame DGP inference as \emph{posterior transport}: learn a deterministic sampler that maps a tractable reference measure to posterior-relevant inducing variables, regularised by a path prior derived from the Doob-bridged reference diffusion. Our realisation, \textbf{OM-Path} (formally FBVI-bridge-Path), uses Song's probability-flow ODE applied to DBVI's Doob-bridged forward SDE; the reference drift is closed-form from the bridge marginal coefficients (no score matching) and the path regulariser is the \textbf{Onsager--Machlup action}. At the finite-$ε$ value used at training, the objective is the negative log unnormalised density of a tempered Doob-bridge path posterior, and Theorem 1 identifies it with the same posterior's small-noise MAP path via the Freidlin--Wentzell LDP. Two strict path-space ELBO variants on the same bridge backbone (FFJORD log-det; OM-regularised CNF) are derived as ablations. Under a matched-seed paired Wilcoxon test against DBVI on seven UCI regression benchmarks, OM-Path delivers statistically significant wins on the two largest datasets (\textit{power}: $p\!=\!0.014$, NLL $\mathbf{0.012}$ matching the DSVI baseline of $0.017$; \textit{protein}: $p\!=\!0.002$, RMSE $\mathbf{0.716}$ vs.\ $0.764$, NLL $\mathbf{1.086}$ vs.\ $1.149$), statistical ties on \textit{yacht} / \textit{qsar}, and concedes \textit{boston} / \textit{energy} / \textit{concrete} to DBVI on small-$N$ noisy data. The strict-ELBO variants do not clear DBVI on any UCI metric: in this regime, reducing the variance of the path objective dominates exact-density tracking.

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack flexibility, whereas deep generative models struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies without extensive data and computation. We introduce Parametric Prior Mapping (PPM), a framework that injects parametric structural priors into a generative modeling process. Specifically, PPM utilizes a parametric estimator to derive a dynamic, adaptive prior that guides the learning of a complex predictive distribution via a learnable mapping. This design allows the model to retain the efficiency of parametric methods while exploiting the expressive power of generative models. Trained with a hybrid objective, PPM yields precise forecasts with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Empirical results show that PPM outperforms existing baselines in handling non-stationary data, offering a superior trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/ljl8336/PPM.

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while average-then-calibrate variants smooth multiple realizations into a point estimate. Both options discard the inconsistency that can help identify whether a candidate is indeed stable. A weak answer can enter the conformal set even if the evidence is not strong, simply because one posterior sample or prompt phrasing made it look strong. But variability can help distinguish a stable signal from noise-driven fluctuations. We describe an empirical Bayes conformal prediction framework that uses $r$-values to convert score variability into an uncertainty informed nonconformity score. The resulting $r$-value estimates how likely a candidate's latent score belongs to the top-ranked group after accounting for both its mean score and its uncertainty. It admits both a closed-form Normal-Normal empirical Bayes estimator and a nonparametric posterior-sampling estimator. Using the $r$-value as the nonconformity score preserves the target conformal coverage while provably reducing the inclusion of high variance false candidates under mild regularity conditions. Across image classification, CLIP-based VLM benchmarks, and LLMs, we show that $r$-value conformal prediction preserves target coverage while improving ranking stability and reducing set size when variability is informative, and reverting to CP-like behavior when variability vanishes.

Multi-Agent Debate (MAD) improves LLM-agent accuracy but suffers from rapid context growth, limiting scalability in larger multi-agent settings. Existing methods prune low-utility communications using prior signals, such as token-level log-likelihoods or LLM self-reported confidence. However, these signals become unreliable under hallucination, degrading the accuracy of MAD methods that rely on them. We propose SVR-MAD, a Bayesian-inspired MAD framework that treats pre-debate signals as priors and debate outcomes as posterior-style evidence for estimating agent correctness. SVR-MAD uses this evidence to incrementally construct the communication graph, prioritizing agents whose answers survive peer challenges. Experiments across multiple LLMs and benchmarks show that SVR-MAD reduces token cost by up to 61% while matching or improving accuracy relative to the most accurate competing MAD baseline.

Evaluation in scientific reconstruction is dominated by pointwise metrics - RMSE, MAE, per-event resolution - under the implicit assumption that lower error means better reconstruction. We show that this assumption fails structurally for inverse problems with multimodal posteriors. By the law of total variance, point estimators trained to minimize MSE or MAE produce a marginal spectrum strictly narrower than the truth whenever the posterior has nonzero width. The resulting bias is independent of architecture, training, and dataset size, and it compresses precisely the spectral features - tails, modes, shapes - that downstream scientific measurements rely on. We propose a three-part evaluation protocol where each step targets a failure mode the others miss: per-event distributional accuracy via CRPS, population-level marginal accuracy via a spectrum-fidelity diagnostic, and uncertainty trustworthiness via coverage-based calibration. On a synthetic benchmark with an analytic posterior and on a realistic many-to-one inverse problem from particle physics, model rankings reverse between pointwise and distributional metrics, and calibration further separates architectures indistinguishable under CRPS. The evaluation protocol, not the model, determines the scientific conclusion.

Accurate wind power forecasting requires reliable uncertainty quantification, yet most existing methods report a single predictive uncertainty that conflates epistemic and aleatoric sources. This paper applies the law of total variance to the joint setting of heteroscedastic neural network regression and Bayesian posterior approximation, deriving an explicit decomposition of total uncertainty (TU) into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The resulting estimators are compatible with standard posterior-approximation methods and with $β$-NLL training to regulate the mean--variance learning trade-off. A wind power--specific evaluation framework is proposed to validate disentanglement without access to ground-truth uncertainty labels, comprising three modules: controlled synthetic experiments to verify responses to heteroscedastic noise and distribution shift; data-property--driven validation on a real-world wind turbine SCADA dataset; and dataset-size scaling experiments to examine the predicted asymptotic behavior of EU. Across synthetic and real-world experiments, the decomposed AU and EU components respond in theoretically consistent directions to noise structure, distributional shift, and training-scale variation, supporting the theoretical consistency and operational utility of the proposed decomposition and evaluation protocol.

Symbolic regression with genetic programming (GPSR) may suffer from overfitting and structural bloat, especially when noise is present. In this paper we evaluate description length (DL) and fractional Bayes factor (FBF) criteria as principled, data-efficient alternatives to heuristics for selecting compact expressions that generalise well. We implement DL using a Fisher-information-based parameter encoding and compare it to AIC and BIC across multiple datasets, including noisy synthetic benchmarks and real-world regression problems. We study three search/selection strategies: (i) multi-objective search for accuracy and program length followed by DL/FBF selection; (ii) multi-objective search using DL directly as an objective; and (iii) single-objective optimisation with DL/FBF as the fitness. Across datasets we find that DL/FBF post-selection improves test performance compared to AIC/BIC baseline and that BIC in combination with the same function complexity penalty from DL/FBF produces similar results. In contrast, using DL/FBF directly as a fitness function in single-objective GPSR frequently induces premature convergence to overly simple models. We conclude with practical guidance for using DL/FBF as robust model-selection tools in genetic programming workflows.

Heterogeneous sensor fusion is vital for detecting, localizing, and classifying CBRNE threats. However, individual sensors are often only capable of detecting a subset of relevant threats with varying reliability or can even provide only indirect threat indications, making threat classification challenging. Furthermore, high clutter rates on the sensor side present a great challenge for fusion systems. Additionally, the limited availability of high quality datasets hinders the advancement of learning-based detection and classification models in smart sensors. To mitigate these sensor related shortcomings, a context-aware and domain knowledge-enhanced fusion process is proposed. First, a novel evidence hierarchy is established that enables modeling of direct, indicative, and contextual information. Second, contextual information about the environment is introduced into the fusion process, by collecting, processing, and exploiting OSINT inputs. Third, all levels of the evidence hierarchy are used to craft a Bayesian threat type classification mechanism with domain knowledge-informed priors. The proposed methodology is evaluated in simulated scenarios, and the results demonstrate the benefit of the proposed fusion approach in terms of robustness to clutter and prior mismatch, with an overall classification accuracy of up to 95%.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is highly susceptible to patient motion due to its relatively long acquisition times and the fact that data are acquired sequentially in k-space. Even small patient movements introduce phase inconsistencies across measurements, leading to severe artifacts such as blurring, ghosting, and geometric distortions that can compromise diagnostic quality. Retrospective motion compensation remains challenging, particularly in accelerated acquisitions, due to the ill-posed nature of the joint reconstruction and motion estimation problem. In this work, we propose a unified Bayesian framework for motion-compensated 3D MRI that jointly estimates the anatomical image, rigid-body motion parameters, and coil sensitivity maps directly from motion-corrupted k-space data. Our approach integrates pretrained 3D complex-valued score-based diffusion models as expressive anatomical image priors within a physics-based forward model. Inference is performed by alternating diffusion posterior image updates with efficient proximal optimization steps for motion and coil sensitivity estimation, enabling fully unsupervised reconstruction without the need for paired motion-free training data. Experiments on simulated and real-motion brain MRI datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves improved image quality and motion robustness compared to state-of-the-art classical and learning-based motion correction techniques, particularly in the presence of severe motion and high acceleration.

The high cost and data scarcity in scientific exploration have motivated the use of large language models (LLMs) as knowledge-driven components in Bayesian optimization (BO). However, existing approaches typically embed LLMs directly into the sampling or surrogate modeling pipeline, without fully leveraging their significantly lower evaluation cost compared to real-world experiments. To address this limitation, we propose LLM-Accelerated Bayesian Optimization (LABO), a framework that combines LLM predictions with experimental observations within a single BO loop. LABO employs a gating criterion to dynamically balance the reliance on LLM predictions versus actual experiments. By leveraging inexpensive LLM evaluations to broadly explore the search space and reserving costly real experiments only for regions with high uncertainty, LABO achieves more sample-efficient optimization. We provide a theoretical analysis with a cumulative regret bound that formalizes this efficiency gain. Empirical results across diverse scientific tasks demonstrate that LABO consistently outperforms existing methods under identical experimental budgets. Our results suggest that LABO offers a practical and theoretically grounded approach for integrating LLMs into scientific discovery workflows.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has become the standard recipe for improving LLM reasoning, but the dominant algorithm GRPO assigns a single trajectory-level advantage to every token, diluting the signal at pivotal reasoning steps and injecting noise at uninformative ones. Critic-free alternatives derived from on-policy distillation supply per-token signals through oracle-conditioned likelihood ratios, yet apply each signal in isolation from the trajectory-level evidence accumulated up to that position. We propose Oracle-Prompted Policy Optimization (OPPO), which rests on a single observation: the oracle signal used by prior distillation-style methods for local discrimination is also the natural Bayesian update of the model's belief about eventual success. Accumulating the signal along a trajectory yields, in closed form and at the cost of one extra forward pass, a running estimate of the success probability at every position, together with a token-level advantage that requires no learned value network and no additional rollouts. A first-order analysis factorizes the advantage into the per-token discrimination signal used by distillation methods modulated by a state weight that concentrates credit on genuinely pivotal tokens, with a directional variance-reduction guarantee. The framework admits two estimators differing only in which model scores the evidence: a \textit{self-oracle} that reuses the student and recovers the on-policy distillation reward as a strict special case, and a \textit{teacher-oracle} that delegates scoring to a stronger frozen model. On two base LLMs across seven mathematics, science, and code reasoning benchmarks, OPPO improves over GRPO, DAPO, and SDPO by up to $+6.0$ points on AMC'23 and $+5.2$ points on AIME'24, with gains that widen monotonically with response length.

State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference, which for SSMs is in general a very challenging problem due to the intractability of the likelihood. Recently, neural estimation methods, such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL), have shown promising results in Bayesian inference problems. In this paper, we show that SNL, when applied to the SSM setting, suffers important limitations, such as requiring a large amount of simulated samples to achieve a moderate performance, scaling poorly with sequence length, while not being amortized. We then introduce a novel inference algorithm called truncated-SNL (T-SNL), which addresses the limitations of SNL. Our algorithm is more accurate, more stable and robust during training, more scalable to longer temporal sequences, and can be amortized when new observations become available. Our experiments show that T-SNL is sample-efficient, robust, and flexible algorithm which outperforms other approaches.