Segmentation Uncertainty Estimation

Semantic segmentation networks operate on a fixed set of classes and therefore fail when out-of-distribution (OOD) objects appear during deployment, a critical limitation for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. Reliably identifying OOD objects requires well-calibrated epistemic uncertainty, yet common softmax-based confidence scores remain overconfident, while Bayesian alternatives such as Monte Carlo dropout or deep ensembles require costly repeated forward passes. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) offers an efficient alternative by modeling class probabilities as a Dirichlet distribution learned from a single deterministic forward pass. Existing EDL formulations rely on Euclidean objectives that push predictions towards the simplex vertices, encouraging overconfidence rather than preserving uncertainty for unfamiliar inputs. We instead employ Wasserstein-based objectives, which respect the geometry of the probability simplex, and study the influence of the Wasserstein order on segmentation accuracy and OOD detection within a unified evidential framework. We evaluate this framework on a convolutional (DeepLabV3+) and a transformer-based (SegFormer) architecture on the SegmentMeIfYouCan benchmark, including LostAndFound, RoadObstacle21, RoadAnomaly21, and Fishyscapes. Our results show the optimal Wasserstein order is architecture-dependent: second-order objectives dominate on the convolutional backbone, third-order objectives on the transformer backbone, and our framework surpasses comparable baselines on most metrics, with a single deterministic forward pass.

Reliable volumetric segmentation is critical for clinical diagnostics, yet foundation models such as MedSAM remain deterministic and lack calibrated uncertainty under distribution shift. Existing conformal prediction methods offer statistical guarantees but are frequently applied in 2D and assume symmetric error distributions, so they do not capture the class-specific biases that arise in 3D multi-class segmentation. We propose Class-Aware Asymmetric Weighted Conformal Prediction (CA-WCP), which combines latent-space density-ratio weighting for covariate shift with directional quantiles for the lower and upper volume bounds, and scales each bound by a class-specific asymmetry factor derived from validation-set false-positive and false-negative rates. We prove that CA-WCP retains the weighted-exchangeability marginal coverage guarantee for every class, and we evaluate it on 3D brain tumor segmentation (BraTS 2020) and on a synthetic multi-organ CT benchmark constructed under covariate shift. On both benchmarks the 95% Clopper--Pearson interval for the observed coverage of CA-WCP contains the nominal 90% level for every semantic class, while interval width is reduced by 8--14% relative to symmetric weighted conformal prediction. We further encode the calibrated intervals into structured prompts for a multimodal large language model to produce uncertainty-conditioned radiology reports, linking distribution-shift-aware uncertainty quantification to interpretable clinical communication.

Reliable robotic disassembly requires part-level representations that distinguish genuine component geometry from scanning and reconstruction artifacts. In point clouds of hard disk drives (HDDs), structured ghost artifacts can resemble valid components locally while remaining inconsistent with the overall geometry, allowing erroneous measurements to receive plausible semantic labels. This creates an engineering information problem: semantic prediction confidence alone does not establish whether the underlying geometry is reliable. We propose \textbf{GUARD}, a geometric uncertainty-aware framework that performs point filtering and segmentation within a single forward pass by modeling the reliability of learned geometric representations. GUARD combines a multi-scale geometric transformer with a multi-bandwidth random Fourier feature Gaussian Process to estimate per-point geometric uncertainty, complemented by predictive entropy to suppress unreliable measurements while preserving informative structures. Evaluation on 2,745 real HDD point clouds shows that GUARD improves PointNet++ segmentation mean intersection over union from 0.7739 to 0.8318. Additional experiments on ShapeNetPart and ScanNet examine robustness across corruption types, point-cloud domains, and segmentation backbones. On manually annotated ScanNet samples, geometric uncertainty achieves a corrupted-point detection F1 score of 0.7931, compared with 0.2212 for predictive entropy. The results demonstrate the value of distinguishing geometric reliability from semantic confidence and reveal a tradeoff between artifact suppression and preservation of informative structures. GUARD contributes a reliability-aware approach to interpreting imperfect 3D measurements for component identification and subsequent robotic handling. Project website: https://001-wang.github.io/GUARD_Point_denoiser/.

While state-of-the-art automated models for medical image segmentation achieve high mean performance, they frequently suffer from localized, catastrophic failures that preclude safe clinical deployment, particularly in neuro-oncology. Interactive segmentation frameworks mitigate this by incorporating human oversight, but traditionally impose prohibitive cognitive and temporal workloads by requiring clinicians to manually search for errors. In this project, we present an efficient, Hybrid Structural-Aleatoric Human-in-the-Loop framework for glioma segmentation that bridges the gap between automated baseline performance and surgical-grade precision, achieving sub-2.0 mm HD95 on curated benchmarks while providing safety-net routing for structural failures across real-world clinical data. By extracting voxel-wise Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) uncertainty and applying hierarchical topological filtering, our method proactively isolates high-risk structural anomalies. We comprehensively evaluated our approach on a challenging out-of-distribution clinical stress-test cohort (N = 362). Operating under a simulated Human Oracle, the framework improved the Whole Tumor (WT) Dice score from 0.891 to 0.914 and reduced the 95th percentile Hausdorff Distance (HD95) from 5.82 mm to 4.76 mm. Critically for surgical safety, the system rescued severe boundary failures in the Tumor Core, reducing mean HD95 from 17.96 mm to 14.83 mm (improving absolute TC Dice to 0.356). These spatial rescues were achieved while demanding a median interactive workload of just 11.3% of the target volume. Acknowledging this as a simulated upper bound lacking real-world cognitive friction, the framework nevertheless demonstrates a highly Pareto-efficient pathway for safely deploying clinical AI.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key requirement for trustworthy AI in high-stakes medical image analysis. In this work, we evaluate UQ in a multi-task Deep Learning framework for MRI-based glioma diagnosis that performs tumor segmentation and predicts IDH mutation status, 1p/19q co-deletion status, and tumor grade. Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) is used for a detailed task-aware analysis of predictive, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty. We assess MC sample convergence, calibration, error detection, selective prediction, associations with segmentation performance, and the effect of voxel-wise uncertainty aggregation on case-level reliability. We also compare MCD with Deep Ensembles (DE) and Monte Carlo Deep Ensembles (MCDE), examine interactions between segmentation quality and classification, and evaluate a composite trust score integrating segmentation and classification uncertainty. Across tasks, uncertainty estimates supported meaningful error detection, while calibration depended on the dropout rate, with moderate rates yielding the most reliable probabilities. Uncertainty decomposition provided task-dependent interpretability but did not consistently improve error detection over predictive uncertainty alone. DE and MCDE showed comparable operational utility, with no method consistently dominating across tasks and metrics. The composite trust score did not consistently outperform classification uncertainty for selective prediction. Overall, our results provide a task-aware evaluation strategy and practical guidance for the development of trustworthy AI for glioma diagnosis.

Accurate biomedical image segmentation requires not only high global overlap but also reliable delineation of clinically meaningful boundaries. In blood-smear microscopy, cytoplasm and nucleus contours provide the structural basis for downstream morphology analysis; however, deep segmentation models may remain uncertain or overconfident near ambiguous boundary regions even when achieving strong Dice scores. This work proposes a Reliability-Aware Boundary Refinement Network (RABR-Net), a two-stage framework for trustworthy image segmentation. A strong UNet++ EfficientNet-B4 base segmenter first produces initial class probabilities and logits. Predictive entropy, test-time augmentation variance, margin uncertainty, probability gradients, and soft boundary cues are then combined into a boundary-aware reliability representation. This representation guides a gated residual refiner that selectively corrects uncertain boundary pixels while preserving confident regions of the base prediction. The framework is evaluated using overlap accuracy, class-wise Dice, Boundary Dice, HD95/ASSD, calibration, risk--coverage analysis, robustness under image perturbations, qualitative correction maps, and paired statistical testing. On the held-out test set, the proposed method improves Dice from 0.9602 to 0.9614, Boundary Dice from 0.3448 to 0.3611, and HD95 from 3.0354 to 2.8274 compared with the cached base prediction. Statistical analysis confirms significant improvements in Dice, Boundary Dice, and HD95. Qualitative results show that the learned gate concentrates around uncertain cytoplasm and nucleus boundaries, and correction maps confirm localized boundary refinement. Although calibration does not automatically improve after refinement, the proposed framework provides an interpretable and reliability-focused strategy for boundary-sensitive biomedical image segmentation.

In real-time colonoscopy, ground-truth annotations are unavailable at inference, so polyp segmentation models can fail silently. We propose Referee-Based Quality Estimation (RBQE), a reference-free framework measuring agreement between a primary segmentation model and an independently trained referee on the same image. RBQE is evaluated on a standardized 1,223-image external benchmark drawn from four public datasets, using four referee configurations chosen to separate two design axes: referee independence and architectural diversity. Using a common Agreement Dice descriptor, a same-architecture referee differing from the primary model only in random initialization already yields a useful reliability signal (ROC-AUC = 0.923), showing that independent training alone is sufficient. Cross-architecture referees improve further: SegFormer-B0 achieves the strongest performance (ROC-AUC = 0.960), significantly outperforming the same-architecture control and UNet++, and exceeding a representative Test-Time Augmentation baseline by 0.055 ROC-AUC under an identical protocol, whereas a prompt-coupled MedSAM referee underperforms despite maximal architectural diversity. Because empty-mask agreement is trivially separable, we also report a restricted evaluation excluding such cases: ROC-AUC falls to 0.876 (SegFormer-B0, 1,046 images) and 0.783 (same-architecture control, 975 images), yet RBQE's margin over both baselines widens on this identical subset. RBQE additionally increases the mean Dice of retained predictions as low-agreement cases are progressively rejected, supporting selective prediction, and requires only one additional deterministic referee forward pass at inference. Our study therefore supports cross-model agreement as a practical, interpretable reliability framework for automated polyp segmentation.

Uncertainty arising from inter-observer variability in medical image segmentation plays an important role in developing treatment plans. Research in this area is inhibited by the lack of multiple annotations for large-scale medical datasets, especially for volumetric data, which suffers from additional scaling and computational complexity challenges. Flow matching has emerged as a powerful framework for generative modelling and has also been demonstrated to maintain strong performance when working with latent representations of images. In this work, we introduce a latent-to-latent flow technique for stochastic segmentation of medical volumes via encoded representations of both the image and label space. We evaluate our method on two challenging applications covering delineation uncertainty for radiotherapy planning and multiple organ structure segmentation, improving efficiency up to 14x compared with full resolution models while maintaining clinically relevant performance.

Deep networks segment brain tumours accurately in-distribution, but can fail silently when the input differs from their training data. That risk is central to clinical deployment and is the premise of the BraTS-GoAT generalizability task. We ask not only how well a model segments, but whether its uncertainty knows when it is wrong. On BraTS-GoAT (Task 3) we train a 5-fold cross-validated nnU-Net baseline (one held-out prediction per case) and a 3-seed deep ensemble. Both are evaluated for calibration and error detection on a per-region relevant mask, aggregated per case. In-distribution the 3-seed ensemble improves modestly over the already strong single model on the same held-out split, with the clearest gain in calibration. The separation appears under shift. In a controlled robustness study using graded synthetic corruptions as a proxy for acquisition shift, the single model's confidence stays flat while its accuracy and calibration degrade. Inter-member disagreement instead rises steeply, about a quarter to a third above the clean condition, several times the single model's response. On the official validation leaderboard the 5-fold ensemble of those folds attains whole-tumour Dice 0.87. The generalization gap is concentrated on the harder regions, with a characteristic failure of missing small, satellite lesions on unseen cohorts. In the synthetic study, disagreement among the 3-seed members is a more sensitive case-level indicator of acquisition shift than single-model confidence. Its per-voxel error localisation weakens as severity grows. The contribution is a rigorous, honest reliability comparison rather than a claim that any one uncertainty method dominates.

Generative semantic segmentation exposes structured predictions as images, but direct color decoding is susceptible to color drift and boundary mixing, whereas latent-feature decoders that predict a separate output distribution may relegate the rendered image to an intermediate visualization. We present Semantic Prism, a conditional semantic-image generation-and-refinement framework with deterministic inference. A diffusion-distilled one-step generator renders a semantic RGB image; per-pixel distances from the rendered colors to a fixed class-color codebook define an explicit probabilistic interface. Hierarchical Generator Evidence Alignment spatially aligns multi-level generator features and uses a zero-initialized output projection to predict an additive residual in the interface logit space, retaining the image-defined interface as the reference for the final distribution. The interface and refined distributions further enable Contextual Interface--Hierarchy Disagreement (C-IHD), a fixed readout for ranking remaining pixel errors without an auxiliary predictor or additional forward pass. On the 500-image Cityscapes validation set, Semantic Prism achieves 72.07% mean intersection over union, 11.39 mIoU points above direct-interface decoding, with 0.41% expected calibration error. Matched-capacity ablations over three seeds support the benefit of jointly aligned multi-level evidence. A separately trained model attains 62.22% mIoU on BDD100K, while the Cityscapes-trained model reaches 46.89% mIoU under source-frozen transfer to the Adverse Conditions Dataset with Correspondences, without target-domain adaptation. Across all three datasets, C-IHD consistently improves the area under the precision--recall curve for pixel-error ranking over maximum softmax probability on the same segmentation predictions; on ACDC, it raises AUPR from 0.6580 to 0.7557.

Reliable clinical deployment of machine learning requires models that know when they are likely to fail, particularly for subgroups underrepresented in training data. A common case is pediatric care, where models trained on adult cohorts can silently under-perform on children with no indication that something has gone wrong. As retraining with labeled pediatric data is often infeasible, detecting such failures at inference time is a critical clinical need. Building on the VIDS (Variational Inference under Distribution Shifts) framework, we introduce VIDS-Seg, which applies amortized variational inference over a lightweight prediction head to make this adaptive, OOD-aware prior tractable for dense image segmentation. We evaluate VIDS-Seg on left ventricular segmentation in echocardiography, a setting where pediatric anatomy differs systematically from the adult population most segmentation models are trained on, training on an adult cohort (EchoNet-Dynamic) and evaluating zero-shot on a pediatric cohort (EchoNet-Pediatric). Across all age strata, VIDS-Seg matches competitive baselines in segmentation accuracy while producing substantially higher spatial correspondence between predicted uncertainty and segmentation error, an advantage that persists even after applying temperature scaling to all baselines. Downstream, it yields more accurate and stable ejection fraction estimates and more reliable detection of cardiac malfunction in the infant subgroup. Our results indicate that OOD-aware uncertainty quantification can serve as a practical safety layer for deployed segmentation models, enabling detection of silent failures in underrepresented subgroups without retraining or additional labeled data.

Reliable decision support in digital agriculture requires not only accurate predictions but also well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, particularly for dense prediction tasks such as semantic segmentation. Ensembles provide strong uncertainty quantification but are computationally and memory demanding, while single-model approximations often sacrifice uncertainty quality. We propose ST-LoRA, a parameter-efficient ensemble that builds diverse members from a single training trajectory by combining Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with snapshot ensembling. All members share a frozen pretrained backbone and differ only in lightweight low-rank adapters, which sharply reduces trainable parameters, checkpoint storage, and I/O overhead. We evaluate SegFormer, Mask2Former, and EoMT on GrowliFlower-L (cauliflower, open field) and BUP20 (sweet pepper, glasshouse), covering in-distribution performance, calibration under covariate shift, and near- and far-out-of-distribution (OoD) detection, with BUTom21 (tomato) as near-OoD data. Extensive ablations show that feed-forward layers, not attention projections, are the critical LoRA target for dense prediction, and that the scaling ratio $α/r$ governs an accuracy--calibration trade-off. Against full-rank snapshot ensembles, ST-LoRA is competitive in segmentation quality, with architecture-dependent training time and energy savings. Against MC Dropout, DDU, and six post-hoc calibrators, it achieves the strongest far-OoD image-level detection and near-OoD pixel-level localization with low cross-seed variance, although full-rank ensembles remain better calibrated. These results show that LoRA-based ensembling offers a compelling efficiency--performance trade-off for agricultural vision systems.

Interactive image segmentation is critical for efficient image annotation; however, existing methods often require many corrective clicks or rely on passive refinement schemes that converge slowly. We propose Uncertainty-Guided Cascade Forward Refinement (U-CFR), a novel inference-time framework that enables models to autonomously self-correct after each user interaction. U-CFR introduces a boundary-aware uncertainty score that fuses segmentation uncertainty, contour gradients, and explicit edge predictions to guide the placement of internal pseudo-clicks. These self-generated clicks target the most ambiguous boundary regions, providing strong corrective signals without additional manual input. To support this process, we design a dual-head network with a shared encoder-decoder backbone: a segmentation head ensures region consistency, while an edge head sharpens boundary alignment. In inference, U-CFR launches a cascade of refinement steps, where each stage leverages the uncertainty-driven pseudo-clicks to refine the mask progressively. Experiments on standard benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed U-CFR improves click efficiency, initial mask quality, and boundary accuracy. It reduces the required clicks by over 10% on challenging datasets like Berkeley and offers a more intelligent and efficient interactive annotation.

Medical image segmentation models often report high benchmark accuracy under ideal imaging conditions, yet their failures under clinical degradation can be quiet: sensor noise, patient motion, low- resolution acquisition, and contrast variability may all alter model behavior without producing an obvious warning. We present a reproducible framework for evaluating uncertainty-aware segmentation under con- trolled clinical degradation. Our experiments use a synthetic multimodal brain tumor MRI cohort generated with a biophysical phantom simulator that follows the BraTS protocol. We train U-Net and Attention U-Net baselines for multi-class tumor sub-region segmentation and augment both models with Monte Carlo dropout to estimate per-voxel uncertainty. Across eight clinically motivated corruption types at five severity levels, we measure segmentation accuracy, calibration, failure detection, and selective prediction coverage. On clean data, Attention U-Net achieves a whole-tumor Dice of 0.990; under severe Gaussian noise, its performance falls to 0.089. Predictive uncertainty rises with degradation and tracks segmentation error (Pearson r = 0.53 under severity-3 Gaussian noise), allowing us to flag failures with an AUROC of 0.843. These results argue for uncertainty-aware inference as a practical safety layer in physician-in-the-loop radiology workflows. We release the code, trained models, and evaluation protocol to support direct reproduction.

Imaging spectrometers increasingly distribute source-resolved methane plume products in which the plume mask, integrated mass enhancement (IME), plume length, emission rate, and uncertainty are physically and algorithmically linked. Using 63 EMIT-derived Carbon Mapper plume records from 27 scenes, we show that these published scalar quantities do not uniquely constrain the plume boundary: substantially different yet plausible masks reproduce the same IME, plume length, and emission rate. Genetic-algorithm (GA) ensembles conditioned on the published IME and plume length make this equifinality explicit: the high-confidence core selected by nearly all target-consistent masks covers a median of 13% of the plausible footprint envelope, and ambiguity is largest for weak, low-overlap plumes. The diagnostics come from PlumeQuant, which recomputes IME, plume length, emission rate, and five-term uncertainty from distributed product components under stated conventions and evaluates four mask representations: the distributed reference mask, a transparent Carbon Mapper-informed analogue (CM-like), the GA ensemble, and optional expert edits. The CM-like mask is generated per plume without access to the reference mask or published quantities, with settings fixed once on a scene-disjoint 44-plume development split. It reproduced published IME with +0.72% median difference and emission rate with +0.16% (6.98% mean absolute), reached 0.843 median intersection-over-union against the reference masks, and matched the published uncertainty scale (median ratio 1.01). Holdout mean absolute errors were 7.6% (IME), 9.5% (length), and 6.1% (rate). These are product-level consistency diagnostics, not independent validation. They flag weak, offset, or ambiguous plumes for expert review.

The automatic detection and classification of cardiovascular disease (CVD) from computed tomography (CT) images plays an important role in clinical practice. Recently, a hybrid pipeline (GRC-Net) for CVD classification was proposed, which leverages a deep-learning-based segmentation and registration method to extract radiomic and geometric features. However, GRC-Net relies on a deterministic segmentation mask, without considering the inherent ambiguity associated with cardiac anatomy. In this paper, we propose GRC-ProbNet, which takes advantage of a deep ensemble to produce multiple segmentation masks for a given input. From these masks, we extract multiple uncertainty features. We analyze these uncertainty features for both their correlation with segmentation error and their propagation effects on downstream CVD classification performance. Our experiments on the publicly available MM-WHS and ASOCA datasets show that the uncertainty measure that best reflects segmentation quality is not necessarily the one that provides the strongest signal for downstream CVD classification. Overall, our results demonstrate that GRC-ProbNet utilizing uncertainty features substantially improves CVD classification AUROC (92.92) compared to the baseline GRC-Net model (91.25%). Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/biomedia-mira/GRC-ProbNet.

Measuring retinal fluid from optical coherence tomography (OCT) drives treatment decisions in macular disease, but manual annotation is slow and segmentation models trained on one scanner degrade on another. We present an attention-guided TransUNet that segments three fluid types across four independent OCT sources, combining a domain-adaptive normalisation scheme with an uncertainty estimate that flags unreliable pixels. The model reaches a mean fluid Dice of 0.78, and -- most usefully for clinicians -- its uncertainty is 1.34x higher exactly where expert graders disagree (p<10^-4), turning a raw segmentation map into an actionable clinical triage signal.

Few-shot brain tumor segmentation remains challenging due to noisy support masks, inter-patient variations between support and query images, and the lack of pixel-wise confidence estimation. This study proposes RUFNet, a Hybrid Mamba-based few-shot framework that combines support mask refinement with uncertainty-aware posterior fusion. To preserve support-query dependencies with manageable cost, RUFNet adopts a Hybrid Mamba interaction backbone with linear complexity. To reduce support-mask noise, an Attention-Guided Mask Refinement module (AGMR) uses query features to recalibrate support masks and improve prototype consistency. To handle ambiguous predictions, an Uncertainty-Aware Posterior Fusion module (UAPF) estimates pixel-wise variance and adaptively balances few-shot predictions with query-aligned priors. On the Brain Tumor Segmentation Challenge (BraTS) 2020 dataset, RUFNet achieves Dice coefficients of 84.3% and 86.1% in the 1-way 1-shot and 1-way 5-shot settings, respectively, outperforming the compared state-of-the-art methods. These results suggest that Hybrid Mamba interaction, mask refinement and uncertainty modelling can improve the robustness of few-shot medical image segmentation. The official implementation code is available at https://github.com/hdy6438/RUFNet.

Robust segmentation of intraluminal thrombus is critical for risk assessment in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm, yet it remains challenging due to heterogeneous thrombus features and low contrast with surrounding non-enhanced tissues. Domain shifts induced by different Computed Tomography Angiography (CTA) protocols further inhibit multi-center generalization of deep learning models. To address these challenges, we propose a patient-specific framework that integrates discriminative learning with anatomically informed priors. Our approach introduces two key components: (1) a patient-specific intensity normalization based on a Gaussian Mixture Model of local anatomy, and (2) an Uncertainty-Gated Anatomical Attention module that incorporates spatial priors while adaptively modulating their influence according to voxel-wise confidence. This design allows for anatomical guidance in ambiguous regions while suppressing unreliable priors. The proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance on in-distribution test data and substantially outperforms existing alternatives in generalization to external multi-center CTA data, while remaining interpretable through an explicit separation of visual and anatomical evidence.

Multimodal MRI is essential for accurate brain tumor segmentation. However, acquiring all modalities at inference is often challenging in practice, which causes intrinsic uncertainty due to unavoidable information loss. Without modeling this uncertainty, existing methods encode incomplete evidence into deterministic representations that appear plausible but lack reliability. In this regime, we propose a probabilistic representation framework that models representations as Gaussian distributions, where their mean captures task information and their variance measures uncertainty from missing evidence. To make variance reflect information deficiency, we regularize the mean from each partial configuration toward its full-modality counterpart, while scaling the variance with the discrepancy between their aligned means. We further introduce a set-inclusive strategy that exploits the hierarchical structure of modality subsets and enforces an ordering constraint to maintain their consistent uncertainty relationships. Extensive experiments on BraTS 2018 and 2020 demonstrate that our approach offers superior performance over baselines across diverse missing-modality scenarios. Code and model checkpoint are available at https://github.com/atlas-sky/SIUM.

Deep learning-based medical image segmentation models are trained using annotations that exhibit systematic bias and variability across raters. While probabilistic multi-rater approaches can emulate annotator-specific delineations, annotator characteristics are typically encoded implicitly in deep latent feature space, making direct analysis of their influence on predictive distributions less straightforward. We propose a logit-space probabilistic segmentation framework based on stochastic variational Gaussian Process that explicitly decomposes predictions into an image-dependent reference logit distribution and annotator specific perturbations parameterised by bias and variance. This formulation enables more explicit analysis on how intra- and inter-rater variability propagate to predictive distributions. We evaluate the method on a multi-annotator medical image dataset, which shows that explicitly modelling annotator specific perturbations improves uncertainty calibration while maintaining comparable segmentation accuracy, compared with state-of-the-art multi-rater probabilistic segmentation method. The learned bias and variance parameters quantitatively reflect annotator-specific behaviour. Furthermore, controlled perturbation experiments over bias and variance demonstrate how changes in annotator parameters systematically influence predictive performance. The code used in this paper is made publicly available at https://github.com/QiLi111/GPS-Var.

Multimodal medical imaging fuses complementary anatomical and functional information, yet modalities frequently disagree in pathologically heterogeneous regions. Current segmentation models handle this in one of two inadequate ways: deterministic fusion that averages away disagreement, or post-hoc uncertainty estimation decoupled from the fusion process that produces it. Both obscure the clinically critical question: why is this prediction unreliable? We present EnTrust, a framework that treats inter-modal conflict as the primary source of predictive uncertainty. Our EnFuse module decomposes multimodal features into three disentangled components: shared anatomical consensus (F_c), modality-specific cues (F_{u,m}), and spatially localized conflict signals (F_{cf}), with independence enforced via a cross-covariance objective. This structured decomposition conditions SegDiff, a diffusion-based generative segmentation model whose sampled hypotheses diverge specifically in regions of modal disagreement. TrustMap then translates this hypothesis divergence into calibrated, pixel-wise uncertainty using ensemble entropy, conflict-guided perturbation probing, and a learned calibration head, enabling clinicians to understand not only where predictions are uncertain, but why. Across four benchmarks spanning brain, cardiac, lesion, and oncology domains, EnTrust achieves state-of-the-art segmentation accuracy while reducing calibration error by 40% compared to the strongest baseline. Notably, it outperforms 5x deep ensembles using a single model at roughly half the memory footprint. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/GenMI-Lab/EnTrust.git.

Stochastic segmentation seeks to represent multiple plausible masks for a single image, which is essential in safety- and quality-critical applications such as medical imaging or building defect inspection. Most existing methods introduce stochasticity by injecting continuous latent variables or by iterative denoising trajectories, whose stochastic sources are difficult to search or audit directly. We propose architecture distributions as a new stochastic source for segmentation: instead of sampling a latent variable or noise, we sample a discrete architecture from a learned distribution over operator choices at multiple searchable positions in a segmentation backbone. Each sampled architecture yields one mask through the selected active path, so inference depends on the executed subnet rather than the complete candidate bank. This approach also supports architectural provenance, since each output corresponds to a specific architecture configuration. To reduce collapse toward averaged masks, we train with set-level supervision by matching a set of architecture-sampled predictions to the annotation set using an IoU-based energy-distance surrogate. We further construct the candidate bank with evolutionary search, making the support of the stochastic source optimizable before distribution learning. The proposed method achieves state-of-the-art distribution matching and hypothesis coverage on LIDC-IDRI, and remains effective on two extension tasks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to formulate stochastic segmentation as learning an architecture distribution and realizing output diversity through architecture sampling.

Glioma segmentation in multiparametric MRI is a critical component of treatment planning. A segmentation model that fails silently on treatment-critical sub-regions represents a patient safety risk that overlap-based metrics such as Dice scores cannot expose. We ask whether voxel-level uncertainty estimation via Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout can reliably identify segmentation errors in clinically critical sub-regions, and whether calibration failure modes are detectable from standard reporting metrics alone. In an empirical two-model case study on 126 BraTS21 patients, we evaluate a high-performance pretrained SegResNet and a locally trained UNet with residual units (UNet-Res). MC dropout preserved segmentation accuracy ($|Δ\text{Dice}|$ $<0.01$) while achieving strong uncertainty-error alignment (AUROC for entropy (H) $\approx$0.97), indicating uncertainty correctly ranks erroneous voxels above correct ones. Entropy-based patient stratification identified a high-uncertainty subgroup with substantially lower segmentation performance (median whole-tumour Dice $0.835$ vs. $0.925$), supporting uncertainty as a practical triage signal. However, global alignment can mask important region-specific differences. Despite similar AUROC, UNet-Res exhibited near-zero enhancing tumour entropy ($0.054$) and Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of $0.915$, with a Dice of only $0.714$, indicating severely miscalibrated confidence on the most clinically critical sub-region, a failure mode invisible to standard Dice and AUROC reporting. These findings demonstrate that strong uncertainty-error alignment is necessary but insufficient for clinical safety: sub-region-specific calibration assessment must accompany AUROC evaluation when selecting models for clinical deployment.

Reliable pixel-level uncertainty quantification holds the potential to transform clinical workflows by enabling high-fidelity longitudinal monitoring and distinguishing true pathological changes from artifacts. Ideally, these models provide the stability required for critical treatment planning and surgical intervention. However, standard deep learning models often suffer from miscalibration, yielding overconfident predictions that mask underlying vulnerabilities at subtle pathological boundaries. To address this, we propose QUAM-SM, a post-hoc framework using targeted adversarial search to identify "adversarially fragile" pixels. By actively seeking perturbations that expose predictive instability, our method highlights regions where decisions are most vulnerable to being flipped. Importantly, the framework disentangles epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on two public datasets with multiple expert annotations demonstrate that QUAM-SM outperforms both standard and recent uncertainty estimation approaches in terms of reliability and boundary sensitivity. Code is available at https://github.com/HanaJebril/quam_sm

Deep neural networks (DNNs) frequently fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) medical images because of variations in scanners and acquisition protocols. Retraining DNN models to address these distribution shifts is often impractical due to the high cost of acquiring and annotating new medical datasets. To address this, we introduce VarDeepPCA, a novel lightweight variational DNN framework designed to restore/refine degraded segmentation maps by leveraging intrinsic geometric priors. Unlike existing approaches that require target-domain data or extensive pre-training, our VarDeepPCA explicitly learns a distribution of valid anatomical geometries using only small in-distribution (ID) datasets. Theoretically, our novel variational learning framework leverages a reinterpretation of the softmax mapping to implicitly perform exact distribution modeling, thereby enabling computationally efficient, sampling-free learning and inference. This also enables VarDeepPCA to provide uncertainty estimates associated with its restored segmentation maps. We empirically validate our framework across 4 distinct clinical applications, using 14 publicly available datasets, involving segmentation of the myocardium, neuroretinal rim, prostate, and fetal head. Comparisons against 15 existing methods demonstrate that VarDeepPCA consistently restores segmentation maps produced by the existing methods on OOD data to (i) significantly improve anatomical plausibility of geometries and clinical utility of the segmentations, and (ii) significantly reduce errors, without needing any more training data than that used by existing methods.

Accurate lesion segmentation from whole-body Positron Emission Tomography (PET)/Computed Tomography (CT) scans is essential for cancer staging and treatment planning. PET provides functional metabolic information with different radiotracers, while CT offers anatomical localization. Lesion delineation from PET/CT imaging is clinically challenging due to subtle imaging features, confounders, and inter-reader variability. Existing deep learning approaches suffer from training-related stochasticity, inconsistent predictions, missed lesions in high tumor-burden cases, and lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their clinical reliability. Using nnU-Net as a baseline, we propose an uncertainty-aware framework for whole-body PET/CT lesion segmentation that integrates (1) Bayesian ensembling to reduce training stochasticity, (2) voxel-wise uncertainty quantification with epistemic and aleatoric decomposition, and (3) epistemic uncertainty-augmented training to improve lesion detection. Two public datasets, AutoPET-III (1,611 scans) and Deep-PSMA (200 scans), comprising FDG and PSMA studies across multiple cancer types, are used for training and evaluation. Bayesian ensembling improves robustness and performance over deterministic nnU-Net models on the unseen AutoPET-III test set. Uncertainty maps highlight regions of model disagreement and correlate with misclassifications, particularly false positives. Uncertainty-augmented training improves lesion recovery at the cost of increased FPVol, reflecting a precision-recall trade-off. A case-adaptive routing strategy further improves Dice by selecting between the base and augmented models. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically investigate uncertainty quantification in multi-tracer, pan-cancer PET/CT segmentation and to combine Bayesian ensembling with uncertainty-aware modeling for this task.

Perceptual uncertainty is a central challenge for heterogeneous robot teams operating in unstructured outdoor environments, where no single viewpoint affords reliable scene understanding. Perceptual uncertainty, arising from sources such as occlusions, manifests differently across robot viewpoints depending on scene structure. Detecting and resolving sources of perceptual uncertainty requires both scene-based contextual reasoning and capability-aware robot allocation. While vision-language models provide strong semantic priors for both, they are computationally prohibitive for onboard inference and lack calibrated uncertainty quantification. We introduce Co-GLANCE, a real-time onboard perception and decision-making system for uncertainty resolution in heterogeneous robot teams. Co-GLANCE distills the semantic reasoning capabilities of a vision-language model into an end-to-end model for occlusion segmentation and robot allocation, eliminating the need for cloud-based inference. To quantify perceptual uncertainty, Co-GLANCE combines conformal prediction with selective abstention to provide statistically valid coverage guarantees for segmentation, robot allocation, and detection outputs. These calibrated uncertainty estimates directly trigger active perception, dispatching the most appropriate robot to acquire informative viewpoints and resolve uncertainty. Across real-world scenarios, Co-GLANCE outperforms cloud-based vision-language model baselines in occlusion segmentation and robot allocation accuracy by 25% and 36%, respectively, while reducing per-frame inference latency 350x. We also release an air-ground dataset for future research. Code, videos, and dataset available at https://co-glance.github.io/ .

Reliable crack assessment requires not only accurate pixel-level masks but also connected crack geometry and confidence estimates that remain stable under domain shift. However, existing segmentation models can achieve high overlap scores while fragmenting cracks, missing fine branches, and providing no calibrated uncertainty. To address this gap, this paper proposes CrackGeoFM, a multi-task framework that combines a frozen visual foundation backbone with crack-specific adaptation for mask prediction, skeleton reconstruction, and uncertainty estimation. The framework integrates a Frequency-Guided Crack Enhancement Module (FCEM) to enhance high-frequency crack cues, a Crack-Domain Feature Adaptation Module (CFAM) to adapt frozen backbone features to crack-domain patterns, and a Structure-Aware Multi-Task Decoder (SMTD) to jointly decode masks, skeletons, and uncertainty. Across 20 crack datasets, CrackGeoFM achieves state-of-the-art segmentation, improved topology preservation, calibrated uncertainty, and effective few-shot adaptation with only five labeled images. These results support reliable, generalizable, and engineering-oriented crack analysis for infrastructure assessment.

Image segmentation remains fundamentally limited by boundary ambiguity arising from sampling-induced information loss and inherent uncertainty in pixel-wise labeling. Although encoder-decoder architectures such as U-Net achieve strong performance, they often produce overconfident predictions that fail to capture transition-region ambiguity. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{NoiseUNet}, a simple yet effective framework that injects bounded perturbations into skip connections to regularize cross-scale feature fusion. This mechanism enforces robustness to local feature variations and promotes boundary-aware representations. Theoretically, the perturbation induces an implicit fuzzification effect, yielding soft, data-driven memberships without requiring explicit fuzzy modeling. We further introduce \textbf{ThyR}, a real-world thyroid ultrasound dataset with inherently ambiguous boundaries. Experiments demonstrate that NoiseUNet consistently improves both segmentation accuracy and boundary fidelity.