Optimal Sample Complexity

Interactive agent benchmarks map an agent run to a binary outcome through outcome checks. When these checks rely on surface level signals or fail to capture the agent's actual action path, they cannot reliably determine whether the run succeeded. For example, a benchmark task may ask whether Alice's shipping address was changed, while the outcome check only verifies that the agent clicked "Save." This does not guarantee that the intended state change occurred, since the agent may have modified the wrong record. Treating such a run as successful therefore makes the reported score misleading. Benchmark quality thus depends not only on task design, but also on the reliability of outcome detection. We address this problem by introducing an outcome evidence reporting layer for existing benchmarks, without modifying their tasks, agents, or evaluators. The layer performs three functions. First, before scoring, it specifies which stored artifacts are required to verify the claimed outcome for each case. Second, it applies a locked checklist to each completed run and assigns one of three evidence labels: Evidence Pass, Evidence Fail, or Unknown. Third, it reports evidence supported score bounds that quantify uncertainty arising from Unknown cases. Rather than silently counting, discarding, or hiding uncertain cases inside a single aggregate success rate, the framework keeps them explicitly visible. We evaluate the outcome evidence layer on five public benchmarks: ANDROIDWORLD, AGENTDOJO, APPWORLD, tau3 bench retail, and MINIWOB. The resulting reports separate several empirically distinct failure modes.

We study how temporal correlations in the data can make certain sparse learning problems efficiently learnable by gradient-based methods. Our focus is on Boolean k-juntas, a canonical sparse learning problem known to pose barriers for gradient-based methods under independent uniform samples. We show that this picture changes when the samples are generated by a lazy random walk on the hypercube. In this setting, the temporal dependencies can be exploited by a two-layer ReLU network trained using stylized-SGD with a temporal-difference loss, which compares target and predicted increments across consecutive samples. For every fixed k, the resulting sample complexity is essentially linear in the ambient dimension d. By contrast, we show that for large-batch gradient methods using standard convex pointwise losses, temporal correlations do not provide the same advantage.

Decentralized stochastic gradient descent (D-SGD) is an efficient method for large-scale distributed learning. Existing generalization studies mainly address expected results, achieving rates limited to $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{1}{δ\sqrt{mn}}\right)$, where $δ$ is the confidence parameter, $m$ the number of workers, and $n$ the sample size. When $m=1$, D-SGD reduces to traditional SGD, whose optimal high-probability generalization bound is $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}\log (1/δ)\right)$. This discrepancy reveals a gap between high-probability guarantees for SGD and those for D-SGD. To close this, we develop a high-probability learning theory for D-SGD, aiming for the optimal $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{mn}}\log (1/δ)\right)$ rate. We refine bounds for D-SGD using pointwise uniform stability in distributed learning-a weaker notion than uniform stability-and analyze them across convex, strongly convex, and non-convex settings. We also provide high-probability results for gradient-based measures in non-convex cases where only local minima exist, and derive optimization error and excess risk bounds. Finally, accounting for communication overhead, we analyze generalization bounds for local models within time-varying frameworks.

Many high-stakes decisions in health care, public policy, and clinical development require committing to a single policy that will be applied uniformly across a heterogeneous population. Regulatory and fairness standards sometime requires that the chosen policy performs adequately in every pre-specified subpopulation, not only on average. We formalize this as a Selection of the Best with Fairness Constraints (SBFC) problem, in order to identify the policy with the highest average performance among those policies that meet a minimum per-subpopulation threshold. We establish an instance-specific lower bound on sample complexity of the SBFC problem. We then develop a Track-and-Stop with Constraints on Subpopulation (T-a-S-CS) algorithm that achieves the lower bound asymptotically. We extend the framework to general closed-set and penalty-based fairness specifications with matching guarantees. Numerical experiments and a case study using the International Stroke Trial demonstrate substantial efficiency gains over policy-level allocation baselines.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an efficient framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions. However, it is typically formulated as learning an end-to-end mapping from inputs to scalar objectives, thereby discarding the potentially rich information whenever a structured system output is available. In this work, we study Bayesian optimization over a vector-valued operator with structured measurements, where each measurement observes multidimensional or functional outputs, e.g., trajectories or spatial fields, rather than a single scalar value. The objective is then defined as a linear functional of these measurements. This allows each observation to reveal substantially richer information about the underlying system compared to scalar observations. Assuming the unknown operator lies in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), we derive high-probability concentration bounds for the kernel ridge regression (KRR) estimator directly in the measurement space, characterizing uncertainty in a general Hilbert space. Building on these results, we propose an algorithm based on the upper confidence bound (UCB) acquisition function with regret guarantees under mild assumptions, recovering sublinear rates for common kernels. Empirically, we demonstrate that leveraging structured measurements leads to improved sample efficiency by enabling efficient transfer of information across objectives and adaptation to time-varying settings.

We provide counterexamples to the unimodal minimal filling architecture conjecture for polynomial neural networks (PNNs) with power activation functions. Fixing the input and output widths, the conjecture states that any minimal filling architecture has unimodal widths for the hidden layers. We found counterexamples via a frontier search, recursive dimension bounds on neurovarieties, and symbolic computation. Notably, several subarchitectures of our main example exhibit large defect, in contrast with the predominantly small-defect behavior observed in prior literature.

We consider the problem of learning an unknown subset $N_\text{target}$ of a domain in an online setting. In each round $t$, the learner predicts a set of items ${N}_t$ and receives one of two types of feedback, each with equal probability: precision feedback, in which a randomly chosen item from the predicted set $N_t$ is revealed and the learner is told whether it belongs to $N_\text{target}$ (incurring a reward if it does), or recall feedback, in which a randomly chosen item from the target set $N_\text{target}$ is revealed and the learner is told whether it belongs to $N_t$ (incurring a reward if it does). The goal is to maximize the cumulative reward over time. This simple online set learning problem abstracts a variety of learning scenarios with precision- and recall-type feedback. We show that a hypothesis class (a family of subsets of the domain) is learnable in this setting if and only if it has finite Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension, mirroring the classical PAC characterization. However, the resulting algorithmic structure is markedly more intricate: in contrast to standard Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning -- where the algorithmic landscape is governed by the simple principle of Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) -- our partial feedback model can invalidate ERM and even all proper learning rules. We develop algorithms to address the dependencies induced by the feedback, obtaining regret guarantees in both the realizable and agnostic settings. Our results provide a qualitative characterization of learnability in this model, addressing its most basic question, while pointing to a range of natural and intriguing open questions, including the determination of optimal regret rates.

We revisit combinatorial Thompson sampling (CTS) for semi-bandits with sleeping arms, where arm availability varies over time and actions must satisfy combinatorial constraints, as in wireless mesh routing with fluctuating link availability. Despite its practical relevance, CTS has been hindered by several long-standing problems: (i) the absence of worst-case regret guarantees in the semi-bandit setting even without sleeping arms, (ii) the lack of theory under adversarially varying availability, and (iii) the consistently weak empirical performance of CTS with Gaussian priors (CTS-G). This paper resolves these long-standing issues by providing the first worst-case regret analysis of CTS-G, proving an upper bound of $\tilde{O}(m\sqrt{NT})$ and a matching lower bound of $\tildeΩ(m\sqrt{NT})$. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we further propose CL-SG, a simple CTS-G variant that samples a single shared Gaussian seed each round to coordinate exploration across arms. We show that CL-SG achieves an improved regret bound of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{mNT})$, together with a matching lower bound $Ω(\sqrt{mNT})$. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CL-SG consistently outperforms strong baselines including CTS-G and CTS-B, and we open-source our implementation for reproducibility.

We study online multicalibration beyond the worst-case. We give a single, efficient algorithm which dynamically interpolates between benign and worst-case sequences by adaptively refining a dyadic grid of prediction values. Its error is controlled by the number of leaves in the refinement tree. Our analysis recovers the known $\widetilde O(T^{2/3})$ worst-case-optimal rate for online multicalibration, while simultaneously automatically adapting to easier instances: in the marginal stochastic setting it obtains a rate of $\widetilde O(\sqrt T)$, and for piecewise-stationary means with $J$ segments its rate is $\widetilde O(\sqrt{JT})$. More generally, the rate depends on a threshold-complexity measure of the predictable mean process relative to the group family. We show that this dependence is tight up to logarithmic factors.

\emph{Kullback-Leibler} (KL) regularization is ubiquitous in reinforcement learning algorithms in the form of \emph{reverse} or \emph{forward} KL. Recent studies have demonstrated $ε^{-1}$-type fast rates for decision making under reverse KL regularization, in contrast to the standard $ε^{-2}$-type sample complexity. However, for forward-KL-regularized objectives, existing statistical analyses are either not applicable or result in $\tilde{O}(ε^{-2})$ slow rates. We take the first step towards addressing this problem via a streamlined analysis of forward-KL-regularized offline CBs. We give the first $\tilde{O}(ε^{-1})$ upper bounds in tabular and general function approximation settings, both under notions of \emph{single-policy concentrability}. In particular, our convex-analytical pipeline unifies these settings by exploiting the pessimism principle in a novel way and completely bypasses the proof routines in previous works based on the mean value theorem, which might be of independent interest. Moreover, we provide rate-optimal lower bounds, manifesting the tightness of our upper bounds in terms of statistical rates. Our lower bounds also demonstrate that the forward-KL-regularized sample complexity recovers the unregularized slow rate in the low-regularization regime, similarly to the reverse-KL regularization.

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a foundational tool for unsupervised representation learning, yet its high-dimensional theory remains largely limited to single-component recovery. We develop an asymptotically exact mean-field theory for multi-component online ICA, capturing the coupling induced by simultaneous learning and orthogonalization. In the high-dimensional limit, the joint empirical distribution of learned estimates and ground-truth components converges to a deterministic process, yielding a closed ODE system for the overlap matrix between learned directions and true components. This characterization reveals a genuinely multi-component, initialization-driven phase structure: a decoupled regime, where estimates align with distinct components and evolve nearly independently, and a competition regime, where overlapping initializations induce orthogonality-driven conflicts, slow reorientation, and delayed convergence. Our steady-state analysis gives explicit learnability boundaries and competition conditions linking step size, data moments, and initialization. These conditions show that larger higher-order moments and competition shrink the stable learning-rate window, increase convergence times, and predict a staircase phenomenon in which the number of recoverable components changes discretely with the learning rate. Experiments on synthetic data and hyperspectral remote sensing data validate the predicted trajectories and phase behavior.

Certified verification of transformer attention requires bounding the softmax function over interval constraints on the pre-softmax scores. Existing verifiers relax softmax ndependently of the downstream objective, leaving avoidable slack. We prove that the exact optimum of this score-box problem is attained at a vertex of the constraint box, and establish a threshold structure theorem showing that, after sorting the objective coefficients, the optimum lies among only linearly many candidates, yielding the Vertex-Softmax primitive with log-linear complexity in the sequence length. We further prove a formal optimality result showing that Vertex-Softmax is the tightest sound bound obtainable from score intervals alone, characterizing precisely what additional structure (score correlations, score-value coupling) is needed for further improvement. Integrated into a CROWN Convex Relaxation based Optimization for Worst-case Neurons)-style verifier with a formal soundness guarantee, Vertex-Softmax significantly improves certified rates and substantially tightens lower bounds across MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 attention models, while consistently matching or outperforming alpha-CROWN and branch-and-bound baselines at a fraction of their cost.

Bayesian neural networks are typically trained against the evidence lower bound (ELBO), whose Jensen gap closes only when the variational posterior is exact. We instead train by local consistency: gradient descent on the Bethe free energy, driving the belief at every factor toward agreement with its neighbours rather than placing a loss on the output. The resulting objective scores each observation by its own predictive density: a strictly proper rule whose optimum is the true conditional, for any likelihood with a tractable predictive convolution. Instantiated with a Gaussian last layer over a deterministic backbone, exact inference appears as one known corner: the neural-linear marginal likelihood. That corner is evidence-optimal; the shared-cavity, free-routed interior is predictive-optimal, improving NLL and calibration over it. This instance, SCROLL (Shared-Cavity fRee-rOuting Last-Layer), is a single-pass Bayesian neural network: batchable, any-likelihood, and implicitly empirical-Bayes-prior precision, observation noise, covariance, and backbone fit in one gradient pass. Prior work enters the interior only through the ELBO and its Jensen gap, even in this conjugate setting. At a single training run and forward pass per architecture-where the validation-tuned conventional references cross-validate $λ$ and ensembles pay $5$-$50\times$ at inference-a fixed SCROLL variant is best-or-tied on NLL and calibration on 7/8 UCI regression benchmarks, and best on 4/5 across three large tabular datasets (up to 515k examples) and two frozen text/vision embeddings.

Dynamics of interacting systems in engineering, society, and nature often evolve over latent networks that govern which entities can interact. We study the problem of inferring these networks from event-based observations, which arise naturally in finance, seismology, and neuroscience. While there is substantial algorithmic work addressing this important problem, theoretical results are scarce. In this paper we ask the following fundamental question: what is the minimum time that one must observe the dynamics in order to exactly recover the underlying network, as a function of the number $d$ of interacting entities? For a class of stationary Hawkes processes with sparse, weak interactions, we prove that an observation time of order $\log d$ is sufficient and necessary. For the upper bound we construct a two-stage estimator that uses clipped and binned event data for screening, followed by a least-squares refinement, and apply concentration bounds derived from the Poisson cluster representation. For the lower bound we combine Fano's inequality with Jacod's Girsanov formula for point processes on a suitable subclass of networks.

In many practical applications it is important to build symmetries into neural network architectures. Consider the important case of permutation symmetry on point clouds consisting of $n$ points in $d$ dimensions. In this case the network learns a function on a set of $n$ points in $\mathbb{R}^d$, and a natural paradigm for constructing invariant networks is Janossy pooling, which generalizes the popular Deep Sets architecture. We study the universality of this approach, in particular the important question of how large the embedding dimension must be to guarantee universality of this architecture. Specifically, using a novel technique, we prove new lower bounds on the required size of this embedding dimension. For Deep Sets, this gives the correct minimal dimension up to a constant factor for all $d > 1$. For $k$-ary Janossy pooling, we prove the first non-trivial lower bound on the required embedding dimension when $k > 1$.

Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying assumptions. Existing frameworks for sensitivity analysis are concerned with worst-case changes in assumptions. In this work, we argue that using such pessimistic criteria can often become uninformative or lead to conclusions contradicting our prior knowledge about the world. To demonstrate this claim, we generalize the recent s-value framework (Gupta & Rothenhäusler, 2023) to estimate the sensitivity of three different common assumptions in causal inference. Empirically, we find that, indeed, worst-case conclusions about sensitivity can rely on unrealistic changes in the data-generating process. To overcome this, we extend the s-value framework with a new sensitivity analysis criterion: Bayesian Sensitivity Value (BSV), which computes the expected sensitivity of an estimate to assumption violations under priors constructed from real-world evidence. We use Monte Carlo approximations to estimate this quantity and illustrate its applicability in an observational study on the effect of diabetes treatments on weight loss.

Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on the choice of martingale updates, and many existing constructions do not exploit prior information about plausible data-generating distributions or mean values. We propose a Bayes-assisted framework that uses a Bayesian working predictive model to adaptively construct confidence sequences. For each candidate mean and time point, the predictive distribution selects, among valid one-step martingale factors, the update maximising predictive expected log-growth; validity is therefore preserved even when the prior or working model is misspecified. We prove that if the predictive distribution is Wasserstein-consistent, the resulting procedure is asymptotically log-optimal, matching the per-sample log-growth of an oracle procedure with access to the true distribution. We instantiate the framework using robust predictives based on Dirichlet-process mixtures and Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood. Experiments on synthetic data, sequential best-arm identification for LLM evaluation, and prediction-powered inference show that informative priors can substantially reduce confidence-sequence width and sampling effort while retaining anytime-valid coverage.

This paper presents a finite-time analysis for Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), with probabilistic concentration bounds in both discrete and continuous observation spaces. While MCTS-style solvers such as POMCP achieve empirical success in many applications, rigorous finite-time guarantees remain an open problem due to the nonstationarity and the interdependencies induced by heuristic action selection (e.g., UCB). In the discrete setting, we address these challenges by extending the polynomial exploration bonus to UCB in POMDP setting, yielding polynomial concentration bounds for the empirical value estimation at the root node. For continuous observation spaces, we introduce an abstract partitioning framework and propose a finite-time bound on partitioning loss. Under mild conditions, we prove highprobability bound on value estimates in POMDPs with continuous observation space. Specifically, we propose Voro-POMCPOW, a variant of POMCPOW with f inite-time guarantees that adaptively partitions the continuous observation space using Voronoi cells. This approach maintains a finite branching factor while preserving the original observation generator. Empirical validation demonstrates that the proposed Voro-POMCPOW shows competitive performance while providing theoretical guarantees. Although our analysis focuses on continuous POMDPs, the techniques developed herein are also applicable to continuous MDPs, closing another gap on the MDP side.

Contrastive Representation Learning (CRL) has achieved strong empirical success in multiple machine learning disciplines, yet its theoretical sample complexity remains poorly understood. Existing analyses usually assume that input tuples are identically and independently distributed, an assumption violated in most practical settings where contrastive tuples are constructed from a finite pool of labeled data, inducing dependencies among tuples. While one recent work analyzed this learning setting using U-Statistics to estimate the population risk, the techniques used therein require the risk of each class to concentrate uniformly, making excess risk bounds scale in the order of $ρ_{\min}^{-{1}/{2}}$ where $ρ_{\min}$ denotes the probability of the rarest class. Such a dependency can be overly pessimistic in the extreme multiclass settings where there are many tail classes which contribute minimally to the overall population risk. Our contributions are two-fold. Firstly, we improve upon the previous work and prove a bound with a sample complexity of the same order as the number of classes $R$, regardless of the distribution over classes. Furthermore, we formulate a different estimator that captures the concentration of the risk \textit{across classes}, enabling sharper bounds in extreme multi-class learning scenarios, especially where class distributions are long-tailed. Under mild assumptions on the class distributions, the resulting sample complexity is $\mathcal{O}(k)$ where $k$ is the number of samples per tuple.

We explore the expressive power of Transformers by establishing precise approximation error upper and lower bounds for Hölder class. Specifically, a new approximation upper bound is derived for the standard Transformer architecture equipped with Softmax operators, ReLU activation functions, and residual connections. We prove that a Transformer network composed of at most $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-{d_{0}}/α})$ blocks can approximate any bounded Hölder function with $d_{0}$-dimensional input and smoothness $α\in(0,1]$ under any accuracy $\varepsilon>0$. In the case of approximation lower bounds, leveraging the VC-dimension upper bound, we are the first to rigorously prove that Transformers demand for at least $Ω(\varepsilon^{-{d_{0}}/({4α})})$ blocks to achieve the $\varepsilon$ approximation accuracy. As a final step, we extend the derived results for standard Transformers to a general regression task and establish the corresponding excess risk rates demonstrating Transformers' empirical effectiveness in real-world settings.

Bounded fitting is an attractive paradigm for learning logical formulas from labeled data examples that offers PAC-style generalization guarantees and can often be implemented leveraging SAT solvers. It has been successfully applied to learning concepts of the description logic ALC. We study bounded fitting for learning concepts in expressive description logics that extend ALC with inverse roles, qualified number restrictions, and feature comparisons. We investigate under which conditions bounded fitting keeps its favorable theoretical properties in this setting, and implement it using a SAT solver. We compare our tool with state-of-the-art concept learners with encouraging results, demonstrating that it is a practical approach to expressive concept learning.

We establish sample complexity results for stochastic optimization over the integers, especially with a view to understand the complexity with respect to the corresponding continuous optimization problem. We show that integer optimization can sometimes require strictly more samples and sometimes strictly smaller number of samples, depending on the structure of the objective and constraints. 1. For Lipschitz objectives over subsets of the $\ell_\infty$ ball, the statistical complexity of general stochastic mixed-integer, nonlinear, nonconvex optimization is exactly the same as stochastic linear optimization with just bound constraints. 2. For Lipschitz objectives over subsets of the $\ell_2$ ball, we show that integer optimization can require strictly smaller sample size compared to the continuous setting in a certain regime. To get to this result, we also establish tight sample complexity results for nonconvex continuous stochastic optimization which, to the best of our knowledge, do not appear in prior work. 3. For strongly convex, smooth objectives, integer optimization has high statistical complexity compared to the continuous setting. In particular, we show that integer optimization requires $Ω(1/ε^2)$ samples to report an $ε$-approximate solution, compared to the well-known $O(1/ε)$ sample complexity from the continuous optimization literature.

The classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem tackles the challenge of accruing maximum reward while making decisions under uncertainty. However, in applications, often the goal is to minimize cost subject to a constraint on the minimum permissible reward, an objective captured by multi-armed bandits with cost-subsidy (MAB-CS). Of interest to this paper is the setting where the quality (reward) constraint is specified relative to the unknown best reward and the cost of each arm is known. We characterize the expected sub-optimal samples required by any policy by proving instance-dependent lower bounds that offer new insight into the problem and are a strict generalization of prior bounds. Then, we propose an algorithm called Cost-Ordered Feasibility (COF) that leverages our insight and intelligently combine samples from all arms to gauge the feasibility of a cheap arm. Thereafter, we analyze COF to establish instance-dependent upper bounds on its expected cumulative cost and quality regret, i.e., relative to the cheapest feasible arm. Finally, we empirically validate the merits of COF, comparing it to baselines from the literature through extensive simulation experiments on the MovieLens and Goodreads datasets as well as representative synthetic instances. Not only does our paper develop qualitatively better theoretical regret upper bounds, but COF also convincingly demonstrates improved empirical performance.

Stochastic bandit algorithms are usually analyzed under a mean-reward criterion, yet many problems favor arms with strong upper-tail performance, which we study herein. For a fixed miscoverage level $α$, the natural upper-tail target of arm $j$ is the upper endpoint $F_j^{-1}(1-α/2)$ of a central prediction interval. This target can rank arms differently from their means, creating a central mismatch with the classical bandit objective. To this end, we propose ACP-UCB1, a conformal-style policy that combines an adaptive conformal estimate of the upper endpoint with a UCB-type optimism bonus. The technical challenge is that the conformity scores used by ACP-UCB1 are recomputed from evolving empirical quantile estimates and evaluated at an adaptive level. We control this endpoint through reward-quantile concentration, a perturbation argument for recomputed score quantiles, and deterministic localization of the adaptive level. ACP-UCB1 achieves logarithmic upper-quantile regret with per-arm contribution $O(\nicefrac{\log n}{Δ_j^{\mathrm{ACP}}})$. We also provide metric-specific regret decompositions comparing ACP-UCB1 with UCB1 and use numerical experiments to validate performance and improvement.

We show that, in a precise sense, a broad class of feedforward neural networks learn (have finite sample complexity) in the PAC model: every fixed finite feedforward architecture whose layers are definable in an o-minimal structure has finite sample complexity in the agnostic PAC setting, even with unbounded parameters. This covers standard fixed-size MLPs, CNNs, GNNs, and transformers with fixed sequence length, together with the operations and layers typically used in such architectures, including linear projections, residual connections, attention mechanisms, pooling layers, normalization layers, and admissible positional encodings. Hence, distribution-free learnability for modern non-recurrent architectures is not an exceptional property of particular activations or architecture-specific VC arguments, but a consequence of tame feedforward computation. Our results reposition finite-sample PAC learnability as a baseline rather than a differentiator: they shift the focus of architectural comparison toward inductive biases, symmetries and geometric priors, scalability, and optimization behaviour.

Poisson subsampling is the default sampling scheme in differentially private machine learning, largely because its unstructured randomness yields tractable privacy amplification analyses. Yet this same randomness introduces substantial participation variance: each sample appears in very different numbers of training iterations. In this work, we show that this variance is not merely a practical artifact to be tolerated, but a fundamental source of suboptimal privacy amplification. We prove that Balanced Iteration Subsampling (BIS), a structured scheme in which each sample participates in exactly a fixed number of iterations, achieves stronger privacy amplification than Poisson subsampling and is optimal at both extremes of the noise spectrum ($σ\to 0$ and $σ\to \infty$). Our analysis reveals that the privacy-noise tradeoff is governed not by maximizing randomness, but by eliminating participation variance while preserving uniform marginal participation across iterations. To translate this asymptotic theory into finite-noise guarantees, we introduce a practical near-exact Monte Carlo accountant for BIS, which removes the analytical slack of existing RDP and composition-based PLD analyses. Evaluations across more than 60 practical DP-SGD configurations show that BIS consistently outperforms Poisson subsampling in the low-noise regimes most relevant for high-utility private training, reducing the required noise multiplier by up to $9.6\%$. These results overturn the common intuition that more sampling randomness necessarily yields stronger privacy amplification: in DP-SGD, structured participation can be both more practical and more private. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/dong-xin-ao-andy/bis-mc-accountant.

Recent work on provably efficient algorithms for learning with distribution shift has focused on two models: PQ learning (Goldwasser et al. (2020)) and TDS learning (Klivans et al. (2024)). Algorithms for TDS learning are allowed to reject a test set entirely if distribution shift is detected. In contrast, PQ learners may only reject points that are deemed out-of-distribution on an individual basis. Our main result is a surprising equivalence between these two models in the distribution-free setting. In particular, we give an efficient black-box reduction from PQ learning to TDS learning for any Boolean concept class. This equivalence implies the first hardness results for distribution-free TDS learning of basic classes such as halfspaces. The main technical contribution underlying our equivalence is a method for boosting, via branching programs, the weak distinguishing power of TDS learners that have rejected the target domain. We also show that giving a learner access to membership queries sidesteps these hardness results and allows for efficient, distribution-free PQ learnability of halfspaces. Our algorithm iteratively recovers large-margin separators obtained by applying successive Forster transforms on the training data.

Sign-based optimization algorithms, such as SignSGD and Muon, have garnered significant attention for their remarkable performance in training large foundation models. Despite this empirical success, we still lack a theoretical understanding of when and why these sign-based methods outperform vanilla SGD. The core obstacle is that under standard smoothness and finite variance conditions, SGD is known to be minimax optimal for finding stationary points measured by $\ell_2$-norms, thereby fundamentally precluding any complexity gains for sign-based methods in standard settings. To overcome this barrier, we analyze sign-based optimizers leveraging $\ell_1$-norm stationarity, $\ell_\infty$-smoothness, and a separable noise model, which can better capture the coordinate-wise nature of signed updates. Under this distinct problem geometry, we derive matched upper and lower bounds for SignSGD and explicitly characterize the problem class in which SignSGD provably dominates SGD. Specifically, we compare the \emph{upper bound of SignSGD} with the \emph{lower bound of SGD}, illustrating that SignSGD effectively reduces the complexity by a factor of $d$ under \emph{sparse noise}, where $d$ is the problem dimension. Furthermore, we elevate this framework to the matrix domain, providing an equivalent optimal lower bound for the Muon optimizer, proving that extending the sign operator to matrices preserves this optimal scaling with dimensionality. Finally, we bridge our theoretical bounds to practice, demonstrating that the theoretical superiority of SignSGD accurately predicts its faster convergence during the pretraining of a 124M parameter GPT-2 model.

Learning-rate steps are usually treated as hyperparameters. This paper isolates a local beliefspace calculation: when an update is modeled as a projected forward step on the probability simplex, admissibility means contractivity in the natural KL/Bregman geometry. Under this model, the upper bound of an admissible step is not a tuning slogan but a formula.

We derive a tight analysis of the trade-off function for Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) with subsampling based on random shuffling within the $f$-DP framework. Our analysis covers the regime $σ\geq \sqrt{3/\ln M}$, where $σ$ is the noise multiplier and $M$ is the number of rounds within a single epoch. Unlike $f$-DP analyses for Poisson subsampling, which yield non-closed implicit formulas that can be machine computed but are non-transparent, random shuffling admits a tight analysis yielding transparent and interpretable closed-form bounds. Our concrete bounds, derived via the Berry-Esseen theorem, are tight up to constant factors within the proof framework. We demonstrate worked parameter settings for a single epoch ($E=1$) with a corresponding trade-off function $\geq 1-a-δ$, that is, only $δ$ below the ideal random guessing diagonal $1-a$: For $δ= 1/100$ and $σ= 1$, roughly $M \approx 1.14\times 10^6$ rounds and $N \approx 1.14\times 10^7$ training samples suffice to achieve meaningful differential privacy. This is in contrast to recent negative results for the regime $σ\leq 1/\sqrt{2 \ln M}$. Our concrete bounds can be composed over multiple epochs leading to $δ$ having a linear in $E$ dependency, which restricts $E=O(\sqrt{M})$. To go beyond Berry--Esseen, we introduce a new proof technique based on a generalization of the law of large numbers that yields an asymptotic random guessing diagonal-limit result: if $E=c_M^2M$ with $c_M\to 0$, then the $E$-fold composed trade-off function satisfies $f^{\otimes E}(a)\to 1-a$ uniformly in $a\in[0,1]$ with $δ$ having only an $O(\sqrt{E})$ dependency. We compare this asymptotic regime with the corresponding Poisson subsampling asymptotic, and highlight the characterization of explicit convergence rates as an open question.

Sequence-level evaluations in autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) rely on highly dependent token generation. Establishing tight concentration bounds for these processes remains a challenge due to two fundamental bottlenecks in existing frameworks: (i) classical inequalities typically separate dependency structures from target sensitivities, leading to a scalar collapse that inflates the variance proxy to a suboptimal $\mathcal{O}(N)$ for sparse terminal rewards; (ii) conversely, while certain spatial methods achieve tighter bounds, they lack the strictly causal filtration required by sequential generation, rendering them inapplicable to the autoregressive setting. To resolve both bottlenecks, we establish a sharp McDiarmid-type inequality for dependent sequences, governed strictly by the exact matrix-vector multiplication of the causal dependency resolvent and the target sensitivity vector. This Matrix-Decoupled Concentration (MDC) framework natively recovers optimal constants for Markov chains and exploits directed $d$-separation to yield order-optimal bounds for causal trees. Crucially, by exactly preserving the coordinate-wise sparsity of rewards within a strictly causal framework, MDC mathematically prevents scalar collapse, guaranteeing a dimension-free $\mathcal{O}(1)$ variance proxy and providing a rigorous mathematical justification for the stability of long-context reasoning.

Kernel quadrature can exploit RKHS spectral structure and outperform Monte Carlo on smooth integrands, but optimized quadrature weights are generally signed and may be numerically unstable. We study whether spectral acceleration remains possible when the weights are constrained to be positive, i.e., simplex weights. In the exact-target fixed-pool setting, an evaluated i.i.d. candidate pool of size $N$ is already available and the task is to reweight it so as to approximate the kernel mean embedding. We show that this positive reweighting problem is governed not by the equal-weight empirical average, but by the random convex hull generated by the pool. Our main geometric result shows that the mean of a bounded $d$-dimensional random vector can be approximated by a convex combination of $N$ i.i.d. samples at accuracy $O(d/N)$ with high probability, sharper than equal-weight averaging in the fixed-dimensional regime. We transfer this $d$-dimensional convex-hull approximation to full RKHS worst-case error through an augmented Mercer-truncation argument. The resulting positive-weight KQ bounds consist of a spectral tail term and a finite-sample convex-hull term, yielding Monte-Carlo-beating rates in favorable spectral regimes, including near-$O(1/N)$ rates up to logarithmic factors under exponential spectral decay. We also provide a constructive Frank--Wolfe algorithm that operates directly on the pool atoms, maintains simplex weights, and admits an explicit optimization-error bound.

Multi-objective optimization (MOO) has received growing attention in applications that require learning under multiple criteria. However, the existing MOO formulations do not explicitly account for distributional shifts in the data. We introduce distributionally robust multi-objective optimization (DR-MOO), which minimizes multiple objectives under their respective worst-case distributions. We propose Pareto-type solution concepts for DR-MOO and develop multi-gradient descent algorithms (MGDA) with provable guarantees. Leveraging a Lagrangian dual reformulation, we first design a double-loop MGDA that uses an inner loop to estimate dual variables and achieves a total sample complexity $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-12})$ for reaching an $ε$-Pareto-stationary point. To further improve efficiency, we incorporate gradient clipping to handle generalized-smooth and biased gradient estimates, removing the need for double sampling. This yields a single-loop double-clip MGDA with substantially improved sample complexity $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-4})$. Our theory applies to the nonconvex setting and does not require bounded objectives or gradients. Experiments demonstrate that our methods are competitive with state-of-the-art MGDA baselines.

We consider the problem of estimating the Attention mechanism in small space, and prove the existence of coresets for it of nearly optimal size. Specifically, we show that for any set of unit-norm keys and values $(K,V)$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$, there exists a subset $(K',V')$ of size at most $O({\sqrt{d} e^{ρ+o(ρ)}/\varepsilon})$ such that $$\left\| \operatorname{Attn}(q,K,V)- \operatorname{Attn}(q,K',V') \right\| \le \varepsilon$$ simultaneously for all queries whose norm is bounded by $ρ$. This outperforms the best known results for this problem. We also offer an improved lower bound showing that $\varepsilon$-coresets must have size $Ω({\sqrt{d} e^ρ/ε})$.

Information theory plays a central role in establishing fundamental limits on what any learning or estimation algorithm can -- and cannot -- achieve, regardless of computational power. In this chapter, we provide an introduction to these connections. End-of-chapter exercises makes the material suitable for both classroom use and self-study. We begin by introducing concentration inequalities along with the notions of covering and packing in metric spaces, and the associated concept of metric entropy. These tools are essential for our analysis. We then introduce the learning-theoretic framework and derive upper bounds on generalization error in terms of metric entropy, Rademacher complexity, and the VC dimension, as well as mutual information and relative entropy. Finally we discuss the minimax estimation framework and establish lower bounds on minimax risk using Fano's inequality, yielding bounds in terms of relative entropy and covering and packing numbers. This manuscript contains preprint of a chapter under consideration for inclusion in the forthcoming third edition of Cover and Thomas's Elements of Information Theory, posted with permission from Wiley. It would follow the chapter posted at arXiv:2605.02989 . The table of contents of the new edition can be found at: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L-m4oQEJw1PJhoxBeMwrrBD8S_HmvzMEkPbYvS24980/edit?usp=sharing . For feedback, please contact abbas@ee.stanford.edu.

How many key-value associations can a $d\times d$ linear memory store? We show that the answer depends not only on the $d^2$ degrees of freedom in the memory matrix, but also on the retrieval criterion. In an isotropic Gaussian model for the stored pairs, we show that top-1 retrieval, where every signal must beat its largest distractor, requires the logarithmic model-size scale $d^2\asymp n\log n$. We prove that the correlation matrix memory construction, which stores associations by superposing key-target outer products, achieves this scale through a sharp phase transition, and that the same scaling is necessary for any linear memory. Thus the logarithm is the intrinsic extreme-value price of winner-take-all decoding. We next consider listwise retrieval, where the correct target need not be the unique top-scoring item but should remain among the strongest candidates. To formalize this regime, we propose the Tail-Average Margin (TAM), a convex upper-tail criterion that certifies inclusion of the correct target in a controlled candidate list. Under this listwise retrieval criterion, the capacity follows the quadratic scale $d^2\asymp n$. At load $n/d^2\toα$, we develop an exact asymptotic theory for the TAM empirical-risk minimizer through a two-parameter scalar variational principle. The theory has a rich phenomenology: in the ridgeless limit it yields a closed-form critical load separating satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases, and it predicts the limiting laws of true scores, competitor scores, margins, and percentile profiles. Finally, a small-tail extrapolation further leads to the conjectural sharp top-1 threshold $d^2\sim 2n\log n$.

We study the distribution of regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits and episodic reinforcement learning through a unified framework. We formalize a distributional regret bound as a probabilistic guarantee that holds uniformly over all confidence levels $δ\in (0,1]$, thereby characterizing the regret distribution across the full range of $δ$. We present a simple UCBVI-style algorithm with exploration bonus $\min\{c_{1,k}/N, c_{2,k}/\sqrt{N}\}$, where $N$ denotes the visit count and $(c_{1,k},c_{2,k})$ are user-specified parameters. For arbitrary parameter sequences, we derive general gap-independent and gap-dependent distributional regret bounds, yielding a principled characterization of how the parameters control the trade-off between expected performance, tail risk, and instance-dependent behavior. In particular, our bounds achieve optimal trade-offs between expected and distributional regret in both minimax and instance-dependent regimes. As a special case, for multi-armed bandits with $A$ arms and horizon $T$, we obtain a distributional regret bound of order $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{AT}\log(1/δ))$, confirming the conjecture of Lattimore & Szepesvári (2020, Section 17.1) for the first time.

We consider the extensive-form bandit problem, where on each trial the learner (a user coordinated by a server) plays an extensive-form game against an oblivious adversary, observing the information sets it finds itself in as well as the resulting payoff/loss. We give an algorithm for this problem that satisfies $ε$-local differential privacy and attains a regret of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{A\ln(S)T}/ε)$, where $A$ is the total number of actions that the learner can possibly take, $S$ is the number of the learner's possible reduced strategies, and $T$ is the number of trials. On each trial, the time complexity of our algorithm is, up to a factor logarithmic in the maximum number of actions at an infoset, equal to the time required for the server to transmit the reduced strategy to the user. We note that local differential privacy is the strongest version of differential privacy and, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to study differential privacy of any form in the extensive-form bandit problem.

RL-based controllers achieve strong average-case performance in networking tasks such as congestion control and adaptive bitrate streaming. Yet their performance can degrade severely under network conditions where strong performance is still achievable. Identifying such conditions and quantifying the resulting performance gap is intractable by enumeration, while the sequential and closed-loop nature of RL controllers makes formal verification methods impractical. We present ReGuard, a framework that discovers worst-case scenarios for a given RL controller and protects it against them at inference time without retraining. Discovery is formulated as a bilevel regret-maximization problem, which yields a certified lower bound on the worst-case performance gap. The discovered trajectories are then analyzed as counterfactuals and compiled into lightweight logic rules that intervene only when a risky state is detected, leaving the controller's behavior unchanged otherwise. We evaluate ReGuard across three RL-based network controllers: Pensieve, Sage, and Park. ReGuard discovers scenarios in which the controller's performance is 43$-$64% worse than what is achievable. ReGuard not only discovers gaps 57% to 6$\times$ larger than those found by the strongest baselines but also shrinks them by 79$-$85% via lightweight rule-based protection while preserving nominal performance. ReGuard's protection extends beyond the scenarios it discovers, improving performance across a wider range of network conditions.

Privacy concerns in distributed learning often lead clients to return intentionally altered gradient information. We consider the problem of learning convex and $L$-smooth functions under adversarial gradient perturbation, where a client's gradient reply to a server query can deviate arbitrarily from the true gradient subject to a distance bound. Our study focuses on two fundamental questions: (i) what is the smallest achievable sub-optimality gap (i.e., excess error in optimization) under such responses, and (ii) how many queries are sufficient to guarantee a given sub-optimality gap? We establish tight feasibility thresholds on the sub-optimality gap and provide algorithms that achieve these thresholds with provable query complexity guarantees.

We provide a unified theoretical analysis of Linear Discriminant Analysis with simultaneous multilabel scatter matrix formulations and Stiefel orthogonality constraints. Our contributions span both algebraic structure and statistical guarantees. On the algebraic side, we characterize the rank of the multilabel between-class scatter matrix, showing that the effective discriminant dimensionality can strictly exceed the classical single-label bound of $C-1$; we establish a multilabel partition of variance and prove that all four Fisher objectives are equivalent under the $W^\top S_t^{ML} W = I_r$ constraint while characterizing their divergence under the Stiefel constraint; and we prove a two-sided label-distance preservation bound relating projected distances to Hamming distances in label space. On the statistical side, we establish a finite-sample $O(k_{\max}\sqrt{d\log d/n}/gap_r)$ bound on the subspace estimation error under sub-Gaussian noise with a matching $Ω(σ^2 d/(n\,gap_r))$ minimax lower bound, establishing a near-minimax-optimal rate (matching up to logarithmic and $k_{\max}$ factors) for multilabel discriminant subspace estimation. We further provide high-probability distance concentration, robustness guarantees under label interactions, and a regularization analysis preserving the spectral structure when $d \gg n$. All results are verified numerically on synthetic data generated from the linear label-effect model, covering both the algebraic identities and the multilabel-specific quantities ($k_{\max}$, $κ(S_t^{ML})$, $\|Γ/n\|_2$, $Δ_r$) that govern the statistical bounds. The numerical experiments are designed as a sanity check for the theorems rather than as an empirical benchmark; evaluation on real multilabel datasets is left to future work targeting application-oriented venues.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) holds great potential but faces robustness challenges due to environmental uncertainty. To address this, distributionally robust Markov games (RMGs) optimize worst-case performance when the environment deviates from the nominal model within a uncertainty set. Beyond robustness, an equally urgent goal for MARL is data efficiency -- sampling from vast state and action spaces that grow exponentially with the number of agents potentially leads to the curse of multiagency. However, current provably data-efficient algorithms for RMGs are limited to tabular settings with finite state and action spaces, which are only computationally manageable for small-scale problems, leaving RMGs with large-scale (or infinite) state spaces largely unexplored. The only existing work beyond tabular settings focuses on linear function approximation (LFA) for a restrictive class of RMGs using vanish minimal value assumption and still suffers from sample complexity with the curse of multiagency. In this work, we focuses on general RMGs with LFA. For uncertainty sets defined by total variation distance, we develop provably data-efficient algorithms that break the curse of multiagency in both the generative model setting and a newly proposed online interactive setting. To our knowledge, our results are the first to break the curse of multiagency of sample complexity for RMGs with large (possibly infinite) state spaces, regardless of the uncertainty set construction.

In this work, we formulate a new multi-task active learning setting in which the learner's goal is to solve multiple matrix completion problems simultaneously. At each round, the learner can choose from which matrix it receives a sample from an entry drawn uniformly at random. Our main practical motivation is market segmentation, where the matrices represent different regions with different preferences of the customers. The challenge in this setting is that each of the matrices can be of a different size and also of a different rank which is unknown. We provide and analyze a new algorithm, MAlocate that is able to adapt to the unknown ranks of the different matrices. We then give a lower-bound showing that our strategy is minimax-optimal and demonstrate its performance with synthetic experiments.

We study the complexity of smoothed agnostic learning of halfspaces on $\{\pm 1\}^n$ under uniform marginals in the model of~\cite{KM25}, where each input coordinate is independently flipped with probability $σ\in (0, {1}/{2})$. We show that $L^1$ polynomial regression achieves runtime and sample complexity $\tilde{O}(n^{O(\log(1/\varepsilon)/σ)})$, and prove a nearly matching Statistical Query complexity lower bound of $n^{Ω(\log(1+σ/\varepsilon^2)/σ)}$. This complements the recent work of~\cite{DK26}, which established analogous bounds in the continuous setting under Gaussian marginals.

Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization is widely used in offline decision-making and offers several benefits, motivating recent work on the sample complexity of offline learning with respect to KL-regularized performance metrics. Nevertheless, the exact sample complexity of KL-regularized offline learning remains largely from fully characterized. In this paper, we study this question in the setting of multi-armed bandits (MABs). We provide a sharp analysis of KL-PCB (Zhao et al., 2026), showing that it achieves a sample complexity of $\tilde{O}(ηSAC^{π^*}/ε)$ under large regularization $η= \tilde{O}(ε^{-1})$, and a sample complexity of $\tildeΩ(SAC^{π^*}/ε^2)$ under small regularization $η= \tildeΩ(ε^{-1})$, where $η$ is the regularization parameter, $S$ is the number of contexts, $A$ is the number of arms, $C^{π^*}$ policy coverage coefficient at the optimal policy $π^*$, $ε$ is the desired sub-optimality, and $\tilde{O}$ and $\tildeΩ$ hide all poly-logarithmic factors. We further provide a pair of sharper sample complexity lower bounds, which matches the upper bounds over the entire range of regularization strengths. Overall, our results provide a nearly complete characterization of offline multi-armed bandits with KL regularization.

This work investigates the phenomenon of Neural Collapse (NC) in multi-label classification, extending its conceptual framework from multi-class learning to general correlated and imbalanced multi-label settings. Although recent studies have identified a ''tag-wise averaging'' structure for multi-label features, this view relies on implicit assumptions of label balance and combinatorial symmetry. Consequently, it fails to account for the geometrical distortions caused by intrinsic label correlations and data imbalance, which are common in practice. We resolve the multiplicity-one imbalance conjecture raised by Li et al. (2024), showing that higher-multiplicity prototypes obey a class-frequency-weighted synthesis rule rather than uniform averaging. To address this, we propose a rigorous spectral-control framework to analyze the terminal phase of multi-label learning under general imbalanced conditions. We introduce the label covariance spectrum $κ_m$, a scalar controlling the distribution-dependent lower-bound geometry, derived from the second-order moment matrix of the label distribution. Contrary to the averaging perspective, our analysis reveals that the centered label covariance spectrum controls the stability of terminal geometry by quantifying the weakest centered inter-class contrast directions. We prove that the classical Tag-wise Averaging emerges only as a special case under perfect orthogonality. Numerical experiments on synthetic distributions validate our theoretical bounds. This work resolves the scaled-average aspect of the imbalance conjecture and establishes a unifying theoretical framework that extends Neural Collapse to complex, imbalanced multi-label settings.

Self-normalized martingale inequalities lie at the heart of confidence ellipsoids for online least squares and, more broadly, many bandit and reinforcement-learning results. Yet existing vector and scalar results typically rely on bounded covariates and an explicit regularization matrix, producing bounds that are \emph{not scale-invariant}: although the self-normalized quantity is scale-invariant by definition, its standard upper bounds are not. We characterize when scale-invariant upper bounds on self-normalized martingales are possible. Without further assumptions, we prove that nontrivial scale-invariant bounds exist only in dimension $d=1$; moreover, in $d=1$ we obtain $O(\log T)$ scale-invariant self-normalized bounds without any assumptions on the covariates. In contrast, for $d>1$ we show that no nontrivial scale-invariant bound can hold in full generality. We then connect this dichotomy to \emph{doubly-uniform} regret in online linear regression (i.e., regret bounds that are simultaneously independent of the covariate scale and the comparator norm) and use it to resolve the open question of Gaillard, Gerchinovitz, Huard, and Stoltz, \emph{``Uniform regret bounds over $\mathbb{R}^d$ for the sequential linear regression problem with the square loss''} (ALT 2019): in $d=1$ we give an explicit algorithm with $O(\log T)$ doubly-uniform regret, whereas for $d>1$ sublinear doubly-uniform regret is impossible. Finally, under a natural \emph{smoothness} condition (bounded Radon--Nikodym derivatives of the conditional covariate laws with respect to a fixed base measure), we recover sublinear regret for $d>1$ without bounded covariates and derive a self-normalized concentration inequality free of the usual regularization penalties, yielding arguably a first natural scale-invariant bound for adaptive, non-i.i.d. vector martingales.

We test whether the causal inner product of \citet{park2024linear} -- defined by the unembedding covariance $Σ$ -- enables cross-lingual concept transport. Across 17 models and 4 language pairs, a matched-spectrum randomization test finds that Whitened Causal Alignment is indistinguishable from spectral regularization alone ($p = 0.95$). However, this failure reveals a broader phenomenon: anti-concentration is observed in residual-stream difference-of-means vectors across five architecture families ($p < 10^{-33}$) and supported by SAE features (e.g., $p = 4.5 \times 10^{-19}$) and linear probes on Gemma and Llama. We discover a \emph{dual geometry}: activation-space concept directions anti-concentrate in the spectral tail, while static unembedding-row contrasts \emph{concentrate} in high-variance directions ($p < 10^{-4}$). Split-injection causal interventions support the functional basis on Gemma and Llama (Cohen's $d$ up to $1.80$), and POS-tag probing across 8 models shows syntax preferentially encodes in the high-variance subspace in 6 of 8 architectures ($p < 0.013$), with the Qwen~2.5 family showing a significant reversal consistent with architecture-specific spectral structure. These results suggest transformers may rotate semantic content into spectrally quiet regions during contextualized processing, encoding concepts where they can be manipulated with reduced grammatical disruption.

We study query time bounds for the fundamental problem of estimating the kernel mean $\frac1{|X|}\sum_{x\in X}\mathbf{k}(x,y)$ of a query $y$ in a finite dataset $X\subset\mathbb{R}^d$ up to a prescribed additive error $\varepsilon$. The best known bounds for the Gaussian kernel are $O(d/\varepsilon^2)$, $\widetilde O(d+1/\varepsilon^4)$, and $\widetilde O(d+Δ^2/\varepsilon^2)$, where $Δ$ is the diameter of a region containing the points. We prove the new bound $\tilde O(d+\varepsilonΔ^2+1/\varepsilon^3)$, which improves over the previous ones in regimes with small error $\varepsilon$ and intermediate diameter $Δ$. At the center of our proof is a new fast spherical embedding theorem in the sense introduced by Bartal, Recht and Schulman (2011), which limits the embedded data diameter while preserving local Euclidean distances and avoiding ``distance collapse'' at larger scales. This fast embedding theorem may be of independent interest.

The Zarankiewicz number $\textbf{Z}(m, n, s, t)$ is the maximum number of edges in a bipartite graph $G_{m, n}$ such that there is no complete $K_{s, t}$ bipartite subgraph. We determine for the first time the exact values of three Zarankiewicz numbers: $\textbf{Z}(11, 21, 3, 3)=116$, $\textbf{Z}(11, 22, 3, 3)=121$, and $\textbf{Z}(12, 22, 3, 3)=132$. We further establish lower bounds for 41 more Zarankiewicz numbers, including several that are within one edge of the best known upper bound, and we match the established value in four more closed cases. Our results are obtained using OpenEvolve, an open-source evolutionary algorithm based on Large Language Models (LLMs) that iteratively improves algorithms for generating mathematical constructions by optimizing a reward signal which we tailored for this specific problem. These findings provide new extremal graph constructions and demonstrate the potential of LLM-guided evolutionary search to contribute to mathematical research. In addition to presenting the resulting constructions, we report the generation algorithms produced, describe the relevant implementation details, and provide our computational costs. Our costs are remarkably low, at less than $30 for each Zarankiewicz parameter combination, showing that LLM-guided evolutionary search can be an inexpensive, reproducible, and accessible tool for discovering new combinatorial constructions.

The standard oracle model for matroid algorithms assumes that each independence query can be answered in constant time, regardless of the size of the queried set. While this abstraction has underpinned much of the theoretical progress in matroid optimization, it masks the true computational effort required by these algorithms. In particular, for natural and widely studied classes such as graphic matroids, even a single independence query can require work linear in the size of the set, making the constant-time assumption implausible. We address this gap by introducing a size-sensitive cost model where the cost of a query $Q$ scales with $|Q|$. Nearly linear-time oracle implementations exist for broad families of matroids, and this refined abstraction therefore captures the true cost of query evaluation while allowing for a more faithful comparison between general matroids and their natural special cases. Within this framework we study three fundamental algorithmic tasks: finding a basis of a matroid, approximating its rank, and approximating its partition size. We establish tight results, proving nearly matching upper and lower bounds that show the optimal query cost is (up to logarithmic factors) quadratic in the size of the matroid. On the algorithmic side, our upper bounds are realized by explicit procedures that construct the desired solution. On the complexity side, our lower bounds are unconditional and already hold even for weaker distinguishing formulations of the problems. Finally, for matroids with maximum circuit size at most $c$, we show that the quadratic barrier can be broken, providing an algorithm that calculates the maximum-weight basis with expected query cost $\mathcal{O}(n^{2-1/c} \log n)$.

Exponential families encompass the distributions central to modern machine learning -- softmax, Gaussians, and Boltzmann distributions -- and underlie the theory of variational inference, entropy-regularized reinforcement learning, and RLHF. We isolate a simple identity for exponential families that expresses the KL difference $\mathrm{KL}(q \| p_{λ_2}) - \mathrm{KL}(q \| p_{λ_1})$ in terms of the log-partition function $A(λ)$ and the moment $μ_q$. Remarkably, this identity together with the single fact that $\mathrm{KL} \geq 0$ (with equality iff $p = q$) suffices, by direct substitution and rearrangement, to derive a cluster of results that are classically obtained by separate, heavier arguments: a generalized three-point identity for arbitrary reference distributions, Pythagorean theorems for I-projections and reverse I-projections, convexity of the log-partition function, identification of its Legendre dual in KL terms, the Gibbs variational principle, and the explicit optimizer in KL-regularized reward maximization, including the exponential tilting formula underlying entropy-regularized control and RLHF. Beyond these purely algebraic consequences, standard analytic arguments recover the gradient formula for the log-partition function, the Bregman representation of within-family KL divergence, and the surjectivity of the moment map. The note is self-contained.

Preference learning has become the foundation of aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human intent. Popular methods, such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), minimize surrogate losses as proxies for the intractable pairwise ranking loss. However, we demonstrate that for the equicontinuous hypothesis sets typical of neural networks, these standard surrogates are theoretically inconsistent, yielding vacuous generalization guarantees. To resolve this, we formulate LLM alignment within a margin-shifted ranking framework. We derive rigorous $H$-consistency bounds that depend on enforcing a separation margin $γ$. Crucially, we extend this to Structure-Aware $H$-consistency, introducing a novel objective (SA-DPO) that adapts the margin based on the semantic distance between responses to handle synonyms and hard pairs. Finally, we analyze the trade-off between consistency and model limitations via the Margin-Capacity Profile, proving that heavy-tailed surrogates (such as the Polynomial Hinge family) offer superior consistency guarantees for capacity-bounded models compared to the standard logistic loss used in DPO.

In Orabona and Pál [2016], we introduced the shifted KT potentials, to remove the $\ln \ln T$ factor in the parameter-free learning with expert bound. In this short technical note, I show that this is equivalent to changing the prior in the Krichevsky--Trofimov algorithm. Then, I show how to use the same idea to remove the $\ln \ln T$ factor in the data-independent bound for the Squint algorithm.

Learning curves are a fundamental primitive in supervised learning, describing how an algorithm's performance improves with more data and providing a quantitative measure of its generalization ability. Formally, a learning curve plots the decay of an algorithm's error for a fixed underlying distribution as a function of the number of training samples. Prior work on revenue-maximizing learning algorithms, starting with the seminal work of Cole and Roughgarden [STOC, 2014], adopts a distribution-free perspective, which parallels the PAC learning framework in learning theory. This approach evaluates performance against the hardest possible sequence of valuation distributions, one for each sample size, effectively defining the upper envelope of learning curves over all possible distributions, thus leading to error bounds that do not capture the shape of the learning curves. In this work we initiate the study of learning curves for revenue maximization and provide a near-complete characterization of their rate of decay in the basic setting of a single item and a single buyer. In the absence of any restriction on the valuation distribution, we show that there exists a Bayes-consistent algorithm, meaning that its learning curve converges to zero for any arbitrary valuation distribution as the number of samples $n \to \infty$. However, this convergence must be arbitrarily slow, even if the optimal revenue is finite. In contrast, if the optimal revenue is achieved by a finite price, then the optimal rate of decay is roughly $1/\sqrt{n}$. Finally, for distributions supported on discrete sets of values, we show that learning curves decay almost exponentially fast, a rate unattainable under the PAC framework.

We study three problems that involve identifying homogeneous halfspaces under Gaussian distributions: agnostic learning, one-sided reliable learning, and fairness auditing. In each of these problems, we are given labeled examples $(\mathbf{x}, \mathrm{y})$ drawn from an unknown distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d\times\{-1, +1\}$, whose marginal distribution on $\mathbf{x}$ is standard Gaussian and on $\mathrm{y}$ is arbitrary. The goal of each problem is to output a homogeneous halfspace that approaches the best-fitting homogeneous halfspace in terms of its corresponding loss measure. We prove near-optimal computational hardness results for these problems under the widely believed hardness assumption of the Learning With Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results for these problems were mostly established for general halfspaces; our findings extend some of these hardness results to homogeneous halfspaces. Remarkably, our lower bound strictly generalizes over prior works and narrows the gap between the upper and lower bounds for agnostically learning homogeneous halfspaces under Gaussian marginals.

The marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is regarded as a mathematical embodiment of Occam's razor, enabling model selection that avoids overfitting. The evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective from variational inference has also been used for similar purposes. Prior work has shown that restricting the approximate posterior family via a mean-field approximation can lead the ELBO to underfit. In this paper, we show how ELBO-based hyperparameter learning in a simple over-parameterized regression model can also produce overfitting, depending on the assumed rank of the covariance matrix in a Gaussian approximate posterior. Surprisingly, among only the underfit and overfit options, Bayesian model selection via the evidence itself sometimes prefers the overfit version, while the ELBO does not. Bayesian practitioners hoping to scale to large models should be cautious about how reduced-rank assumptions needed for tractability may impact the potential for model selection.

We consider adversarial multi-armed bandit problems where the learner is allowed to observe losses of a number of arms beside the arm that it actually chose. We study the case where all non-chosen arms reveal their loss with a fixed but unknown probability $r$, independently of each other and the action of the learner. We propose two algorithms that work for different ranges of $r$. We show that after $T$ rounds in a bandit problem with $N$ arms, the expected regret of our first algorithm is $O(\sqrt{(T /r) \log N })$ whenever $r\ge(\log T)/(2N)$, while our second algorithm achieves a regret of $O(\sqrt{(T/r) \log (N+T)})$ for smaller values of $r$. We also give a quick estimation procedure that decides the range of~$r$. All our bounds are within logarithmic factors of the best achievable performance of any algorithm that is even allowed to know~$r$.

While the optimal sample complexity of binary classification in terms of the VC dimension is well-established, determining the optimal sample complexity of multiclass classification has remained open. The appropriate complexity parameter for multiclass classification is the DS dimension, and despite significant efforts, a gap of $\sqrt{\text{DS}}$ has persisted between the upper and lower bounds on sample complexity. Recent work by Hanneke et al. (2026) shows a novel algebraic characterization of multiclass hypothesis classes in terms of their DS dimension. Building up on this, we show that the maximum hypergraph density of any multiclass hypothesis class is upper-bounded by its DS dimension. This proves a longstanding conjecture of Daniely and Shalev-Shwartz (2014). As a consequence, we determine the optimal dependence of the sample complexity on the DS dimension for multiclass as well as list learning.

Neurosymbolic systems can satisfy logical constraints during learning without achieving the intended concept-label correspondence; this is a problem known as reasoning shortcuts. We formalize reasoning shortcuts as a constraint satisfaction problem and investigate under which conditions concept mappings are uniquely determined by the constraints. We prove that a discrimination property (requiring that no valid concept mapping can be transformed into another valid mapping by swapping two concept values) is necessary for shortcut-freeness under bijective mappings, but demonstrate via a counterexample that it is insufficient even when the constraint graph is connected. We develop an ASP-based algorithm that verifies whether a given constraint set uniquely determines the intended concept mapping, with proven soundness and completeness. When shortcuts are detected, a greedy repair algorithm eliminates them by augmenting the constraint set, converging in at most $k$ iterations, where $k$ is the number of alternative valid mappings. We further provide a complexity classification: deciding shortcut-freeness is coNP-complete, counting shortcuts is #P-complete, and finding minimal repairs is NP-hard. We also establish sample complexity bounds showing that logarithmically many label queries suffice for disambiguation in favorable cases, while querying all ambiguous positions suffices in the worst case. Experiments across eight benchmark domains validate our approach.