Horizon

Earth observation is inherently dynamic, yet temporal information in many foundation models is learned through reconstruction, invariance, or retrospective sequence summarization. SPEAR NeXT is introduced as a compact pixel-wise multimodal spectral temporal foundation model in which temporal self supervision is formulated as past only, multi horizon latent Earth state prediction. Instantaneous states are first encoded by the pretrained SPEAR model from optical, radar, and environmental observations into compact 32 dimensional embeddings. Their temporal evolution is then modeled by a causally masked Trans former that predicts multiple future latent states from pre ceding observations. Relative temporal order is represented using Rotary Position Embeddings, while month and year embeddings encode seasonal phase and interannual con text.

Recent advances in explaining time series (TS) models have produced methods that identify which past values a prediction depends on. However, most existing methods return a single importance vector, assuming that every predicted step depends on the same past values. In this paper, we show that this assumption does not hold, as different forecast steps depend on different past values. Motivated by this observation, we propose Horizon-Resolved eXplanation (HRX), which adds a horizon axis to the explanation, so that every forecast step receives its own importance map. HRX is a simple yet effective plug-in framework with three components: 1) an estimator that reads these maps out of any differentiable forecaster without modifying the TS backbone, 2) an evaluation protocol that validates the horizon axis by measuring how much a single forecast step changes when the inputs an importance map ranks highest are removed, and 3) a rank criterion that predicts in advance whether the axis is worth resolving on a given TS. We further show that this step-wise dependence is low-dimensional, as the explanations of all steps are built from a few shared maps whose number does not grow with the forecast length. Extensive experiments across various backbones and datasets show that the improvement comes from the horizon axis and holds for estimators of previous explanation methods. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/HRX.

How can language model agents effectively leverage libraries of reusable knowledge to solve long-horizon tasks? Recent work has increasingly focused on agent skills: reusable capabilities represented as skill packages, i.e., multi-file bundles containing instructions, scripts, and other resources that help agents perform specific tasks. Agent skills are typically executed by loading their skill instructions into an agent's context and relying on the agent to follow them. As task horizons grow, however, this approach becomes increasingly brittle, because reasoning quality degrades as more information accumulates in the context window. We investigate an alternative approach in which skill packages are instead invoked as subagents. Rather than loading skill instructions into the main context, subagent execution spawns fresh context windows dedicated to solving individual subtasks. We show that subagent execution outperforms agent-skill execution when skill packages expose clear input-output contracts and their instructions encode the procedural knowledge needed to fulfill those contracts. The tradeoff is additional communication overhead, as extra tokens are required to coordinate between the main agent and its subagents. Our results show that the benefit of reusable knowledge depends not only on its content, but also on how it is organized and invoked.

Scaling the interaction horizon-the maximum number of environment interactions per episode-improves LLM agents on long-horizon tasks, and curriculum-based methods that progressively expand the horizon outperform fixed-horizon alternatives. However, existing schedules are open-loop: they monotonically increase the horizon until a manually specified maximum, with no mechanism to detect when further expansion stops helping. We propose the effective interaction frontier hypothesis: a dynamic boundary beyond which additional interactions yield diminishing returns while cost grows linearly. We then introduce Elastic Horizon, a closed-loop controller that tracks this boundary via the 90th percentile of successful trajectory lengths. On AppWorld and BFCL, fixed-horizon sweeps reveal clear saturation plateaus; Elastic Horizon stabilizes the horizon inside the saturation band from both under- and over-capacity initializations, attains the best success rates across 7B and 14B backbones, and saves up to 25% of per-step trajectory tokens. Our work shifts the paradigm from how to scale interaction horizons to when to stop scaling.

From horizon detection to fibre structures in X-ray imaging, many vision tasks recover lines via peak detection in Hough space $H=S^1\times\mathbb{R}$, the domain of orientation-offset pairs $(θ,ρ)$. Differentiable pipelines extract coordinates via \emph{soft-argmax}, a probability-weighted average that is only meaningful in a globally linear space. However, $(θ,ρ)$ and $(θ+π,-ρ)$ describe the same undirected line, so $H$ double-covers the space of undirected lines $H/\mathbb{Z}_2$: a Möbius strip, obtained by identifying each pair under $\mathbb{Z}_2$ action. Soft-argmax operates on the cover $H$, but since $H/\mathbb{Z}_2$ admits no linear structure, it tears geometrically adjacent lines apart. Thus we need a $\mathbb{Z}_2$-invariant embedding of lines into a linear space, on which soft-argmax is well-defined. We achieve this by parametrising lines via unit-norm homogeneous vectors $\ell=(1+ρ^2)^{-1/2}(\cosθ,\sinθ,-ρ)^{\top}\in\mathbb{R}^3$ and applying the Veronese map $v_2(\ell)=\ell\ell^{\top}$ that satisfies $v_2(\ell)=v_2(-\ell)$. This descends continuously to an embedding of the quotient $H/\mathbb{Z}_2$ into the linear space $\mathrm{Sym}^2(\mathbb{R}^3)$, where the antipodal ambiguity vanishes. Line extraction becomes a barycentre in $\mathrm{Sym}^2(\mathbb{R}^3)$, projected back via its leading eigenvector. We validate our \emph{Veronese soft-argmax} in a Hough transform-based network across all resolvable lines, confirming uniform and seam-free recovery. We further derive that the $L_2$-loss on isometrically weighted Veronese embeddings equals the squared chordal distance between lines in projective space, enabling a geometrically precise training objective.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly deployed in user-facing services that require iterative tool use under dynamic business conditions. Reliable evaluation is essential for sustained improvement: it must reveal capability deficiencies, inform priorities, and assess interventions. Yet industrial agent service unfolds both through the iterative trajectory of a current request and through continued user interaction. Final-outcome assessment can therefore obscure where deficiencies arise and whether later service remains aligned with context from earlier exchanges. We propose ATLAS, a dual-horizon diagnostic evaluation framework for industrial tool-use agents. At the request horizon, trajectory-wise diagnostic signals relate deficiencies to execution locations and capability concerns. At the interaction horizon, user-wise signals assess whether service remains responsive across continued interaction. Together, these views provide structured diagnostic evidence for analyzing execution deficiencies and sustained service behavior. ATLAS instantiates them as executable signals with explicit evidence scopes and decision boundaries. LLM judge interfaces are calibrated against high-confidence references from real business logs; when needed, their decision behavior is distilled into efficient diagnostic models for lower-latency, lower-cost evaluation. The resulting feedback supports policy optimization. We evaluate ATLAS on Meituan Xiaotuan production traffic. Offline experiments assess diagnostic-signal fidelity and replay-based policy improvement, while online A/B experiments show concurrent gains in user engagement, downstream business outcomes, and sampled human-audit quality.

This paper investigates the problem of position estimation of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) operating in coastal areas or in the archipelago. We propose a position estimation method where the horizon line is extracted in a 360 degree panoramic image around the USV. We design a CNN architecture to determine an approximate horizon line in the image and implicitly determine the camera orientation (the pitch and roll angles). The panoramic image is warped to compensate for the camera orientation and to generate an image from an approximately level camera. A second CNN architecture is designed to extract the pixelwise horizon line in the warped image. The extracted horizon line is correlated with digital elevation model (DEM) data in the Fourier domain using a MOSSE correlation filter. Finally, we determine the location of the maximum correlation score over the search area to estimate the position of the USV. Comprehensive experiments are performed in a field trial in the archipelago. Our approach provides promising results by achieving position estimates with GPS-level accuracy.

We study the approximation of dynamical systems by semi-autonomous neural ordinary differential equations (SA-NODEs) over long time horizons. For a single network trained on the whole horizon, the available error bound deteriorates double exponentially in the horizon length. We develop two training strategies that avoid this barrier, each built on a reset of the state. The model predictive strategy partitions the horizon adaptively and restarts every window from observed data: when training meets a prescribed tolerance on every window, the composite model meets it uniformly in time, with a parameter budget linear in the horizon for targets with a bounded, uniformly regular reachable tube. The Floquet strategy addresses autonomous targets with a stable limit cycle and uses no data at deployment: a certified contraction of the learned return map confines the error to linear growth in the number of elapsed periods. For the time-periodic architecture we deploy, the scalar certificate degenerates; we prove instead a uniform-in-time orbital guarantee whose hypotheses are measured on the trained model, and an obstruction showing that, for an exactly periodic learned field, small one-period error and a contracting stroboscopic map cannot hold at once. Numerical experiments on four benchmarks confirm the predicted error laws and measure the hypotheses of every guarantee.

Horizon detection in images of ice-covered waters is a challenging problem for maritime navigation due to low contrast between water and sky, cluttered ice structures, and varying illumination conditions. This paper presents a comparative evaluation of six horizon detection algorithms, including four classical computer vision methods and two hybrid approaches combining deep learning with classical line detection. A new bespoke IceHorizon dataset consisting of 30 ship-based and 8 drone-based videos is used to evaluate detection accuracy, horizon coverage, and computational performance. The results show that hybrid methods achieve the highest accuracy and most reliable horizon estimates. In contrast, purely classical methods exhibit reduced robustness, particularly in visually ambiguous scenes. Performance on ship-based imagery was consistently higher than on drone-based imagery, indicating a strong dependency on acquisition characteristics. The created dataset and codes used in this study are made publicly available to support further research on this topic. The code is available at https://github.com/allythe/HorizonDetection. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20411867

Frontier language models solve reasoning problems in a single forward pass that would have been research contributions years ago, yet fail at multi-hour tasks: losing track of earlier decisions, declaring half-finished work done, or drifting from goals. We call this the horizon gap and survey 1,547 arXiv papers (2024-2026) collected via systematic seed harvest with a disclosed 26.8% bleed filter, extended by targeted supplementation. We disambiguate three routinely conflated properties: long-horizon (task property: required steps), long-context (model property: token capacity), and long-term memory (system property: persistence across steps/sessions). We organize the corpus into six categories tracking a long-horizon task's lifecycle -- planning, memory, execution, training, evaluation, and foundations/safety -- crossed with an axis capturing where horizons are carried (within-context, within-task-beyond-context, or cross-task-persistent). Across all categories, we find the same pattern: outcome-only signals grow uninformative as horizons lengthen, and the field's response -- whether process reward models, credit assignment, or trajectory-level diagnostics -- manufactures denser step-level signals. We treat critical and diagnostic literature as first-class threads throughout, arguing that segregating critique from method would routinely split single papers across chapters. We close by naming open measurement problems: decomposing model versus harness capability, managing correlated bias in process-level signals used for both training and evaluation, and whether long-horizon reliability admits general predictive theory.

Swap regret governs the rate at which uncoupled learning dynamics converge to correlated equilibria in multiplayer general-sum games. Under full-information feedback, the best previous guarantee when every player follows the same dynamics grows logarithmically in the horizon $T$. We construct uncoupled dynamics under which every player incurs only $O(nm^2\sqrt{\log m\log T})$ swap regret, where $n$ is the number of players and $m$ bounds the number of actions per player. To our knowledge, this is the first sublogarithmic individual guarantee in this setting, and it implies that the time-averaged product distribution of play is an $O(nm^2\sqrt{\log m\log T}/T)$-approximate correlated equilibrium. The key algorithmic choice is to combine the Blum--Mansour reduction with optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader using a hybrid regularizer that separately weights negative Shannon entropy and the log-barrier: the entropy controls the optimistic prediction error, whereas the log-barrier controls the transition-matrix movement through its Bregman divergence. A new sensitivity theorem for stationary distributions of Markov chains, which involves neither mixing parameters nor the smallest transition probability, transfers this control to the played strategies and yields a simpler analysis without local-norm or self-concordance arguments. The guarantee is preserved by an adversarially robust variant that additionally ensures $O(nm^2\sqrt{\log m\log T}+\sqrt{mT\log m})$ swap regret against arbitrary utility sequences, and by a horizon-free variant that requires no prior knowledge of $T$.

Large language models often reason at length before answering, increasing cost and latency. Prompts and trained settings can shorten this reasoning, but a shorter trace may only show that the model stopped sooner. Here, we evaluate paired runs of the same question at matched reasoning horizons across 198 GPQA Diamond and 500 MMLU-Pro questions. We test a numeric/concision prompt that announces a token limit for Qwen3-14B and the trained effort settings of gpt-oss-20b and -120b. The Qwen prompt shortens reasoning traces by 12-17%, while accuracy changes at matched token limits are small and mixed. A concise/early-answer instruction raises MMLU-Pro accuracy by 3.8 percentage points at 512 tokens, including +2.7 points when both runs are unfinished. Its gain at 2,048 tokens is uncertain. For gpt-oss, candidate-logit answers from completed low- and medium-effort reasoning are 14.5-26.3 points more accurate than matched-horizon high-effort answers. Most of the 512-token advantage comes from lower effort finishing earlier, while differences among unfinished runs are smaller and mixed. Wrong early answers often concentrate probability on the chosen option, so earlier stopping does not uniformly improve probability quality. In these tests, a tight deadline can favor lower effort or a concise instruction, whereas allowing high effort to finish can recover higher final accuracy. Evaluations should report correct completion before a deadline, the answer obtained when a run is stopped, differences among unfinished runs, and probability assigned to the correct answer separately.

Machine-learning benchmarks often pair a label that aggregates a long temporal horizon with input observed through one or a few short windows. Their apparent performance ceiling may therefore be an acquisition-protocol ceiling rather than a model-capacity ceiling. We study labels of the form $Θ_{g,T}=T^{-1}\int_0^T g\{Z(t)\}\,\mathrm{d}t$ when the latent Gaussian process contains both a stable individual trait and a correlated within-individual state. An exact protocol-conditioned Bayes-risk identity provides a common tool. First, we decompose label variance into an $O(1)$ trait component and an $O(T^{-1})$ state component, explaining why a snapshot can retain cross-sectional predictability while poorly tracking within-person change. Second, we derive task-dependent effective temporal spans: mean labels depend on the ordinary correlation time, whereas occupation-time labels depend on an entire spectrum of higher-order correlation times. Third, state-driven occupation-label variance is maximal when the stable trait lies at the threshold; window efficiency decays much more slowly away from that boundary. Under an equal segment budget, exact risks and Monte Carlo experiments show that repeated segments at one time rapidly saturate, whereas temporally dispersed observations continue to increase state explainability. The trait ceiling uses quantities available from ordinary test-retest data; only the state ceiling requires short-lag temporal calibration. The results distinguish architectural limits from protocol limits and show that the label, rather than duration or segment count alone, defines the relevant timescale.

We study horizon-free regret minimization for finite-horizon time-homogeneous tabular Markov decision processes with $S$ states, $A$ actions, horizon $H$, and per-trajectory total reward bounded by $1$. We propose a new algorithm and prove a regret upper bound $$\tilde O(\sqrt{SAK}+S^8A^3)$$ with failure probability $δ$, where $K$ is the number of episodes and $\tilde O(\cdot)$ hides $\mathsf{poly}\log(S,A,K,1/δ)$. Thus, the regret is $H$-free and asymptotically optimal, matching the contextual-bandit lower bound $Ω(\sqrt{SAK})$ up to logarithmic factors. This completely removes the $\log H$ dependence from the previous $\tilde O(\sqrt{SAK\log H}+S^2A\log H)$ guarantee of Zhang et al. (2021), and drastically improves the prior best horizon-free regret $\tilde O(\sqrt{S^9A^3K})$ of Zhang et al. (2022) asymptotically. The main technical difficulty is that the optimal value functions $\{V_h^*\}_{h=1}^H$ are time-inhomogeneous even though the transition kernel is time-homogeneous. A direct union bound over all value functions typically incurs an additional $\min\{\log H,S\}$ factor. We avoid this factor by (i) exploiting the monotonicity of $V_h^*$ in $h$ and (ii) non-trivially projecting the value functions onto an $S$-dimensional grid. Our analysis relies on three additional ingredients. First, we introduce a horizon-truncation argument that enables reward-based exploration and removes the cost of a separate reward-free exploration phase. Second, we design a cutting bonus that preserves both optimism and the monotonicity needed for planning. Third, we prove a new bound on total deviation for time-homogeneous MDPs, which controls the clipped variance terms in the cutting bonus with adjustable polynomial dependence on $S$ and without any dependence on $H$. Together, these tools yield an asymptotically optimal horizon-free regret guarantee.

Coordinating payload transfers between subsystems is a critical challenge in lifelong Multi-Agent Pickup and Delivery (MAPD). We study systems where agents are confined to separate regions and must exchange payloads through shared handover stations. These stations, equipped with single docks and finite buffers, are inherently vulnerable to blocking and starvation. We formalize this problem as Multi-Subsystem MAPD with Buffer-limited Handover Stations (MS-MAPD-BHS). We then propose Handover-Aware Reservation and Routing (HARR), an online controller that couples per-subsystem planners. HARR uses a shared dock reservation calendar and a deterministic rolling-horizon projection of buffer occupancy to coordinate actions. A candidate route is accepted only if its dock interval is free and the resulting buffer occupancy projection remains within capacity. Under perfect execution, these checks ensure collision-free dock use and buffer-safe committed operations within the reservation horizon. In simulation, HARR achieves up to 77% higher throughput and 92% lower backlog than a fixed-dock ablation at moderate load, while also reducing planning time relative to a coupled station-aware Token Passing baseline. These results show that explicit interface coordination substantially improves stability in modular multi-subsystem transport.

Real-time collision avoidance for robotic manipulators requires fast reactions to unexpected obstacle motion and lookahead to avoid becoming trapped by near-future constraints. Full model predictive control can provide this foresight, but its online cost may grow quickly with horizon length, model fidelity, and the number of active geometric constraints. Conversely, horizon-free reactive methods are computationally efficient but can be short-sighted in dynamic clutter. We present a task-space receding-horizon controller that uses a short contact-consistent rollout to generate a terminal kinematic reference satisfying internal non-penetration constraints, then computes only the first input of a smooth minimum-acceleration transition toward that reference. Starting from a closed-loop inverse-kinematics regulation law, the rollout is performed with an iterative dynamics solver operating on inflated convex robot and obstacle geometries, so that robot-obstacle contacts, dynamic obstacle motion, and self-collisions can shape the terminal reference without requiring full constrained trajectory optimization. We analyze the contact-inactive closed loop and show local exponential task-space regulation under standard regularity assumptions. For contacts activated inside the rollout, we characterize the corresponding discrete updates and bound the effect of moving obstacles on regular operating sets. Simulations on a 40-DOF multi-chain system show that intermediate horizons balance anticipation, responsiveness, and computational cost. Hardware experiments on a 6-DOF platform demonstrate consistent sim-to-real behavior without accurate inertial parameter estimation, and comparisons against dynamic optimization fabrics and model predictive control (MPC) baselines show improved success rates in dynamic clutter while preserving solve times compatible with real-time execution in the tested regimes.

This article explores the application of covariate balance diagnostics for detecting the presence of hidden confounding/model miss-specification in studies applying offline reinforcement learning (RL) to deriving optimal treatment recommendations. The results demonstrate that, either there is a high risk of bias within existing offline RL studies for treatment recommendations or, existing covariate balance metrics are not sufficient to assess such studies. Regardless, existing offline RL studies cannot be concluded as being statistically robust. The conclusions propose future research directions for obtaining more methodologically robust applications of offline RL to treatment recommendation problems.

Music visualization offers a powerful way to enhance listeners' understanding and experience of music by translating auditory signals into visual forms. However, most existing approaches either rely heavily on lyrics or generate flat, non-immersive videos similar to conventional music videos, which limits their ability to convey the emotional dynamics of music and provide an immersive listening experience. We propose Bring Music The Horizon, an emotion-aware pipeline for music-driven 360$^\circ$ video generation. Given an input song, our work first estimates its emotional trajectory by predicting valence-arousal values at the level of every four bars. These values are then converted into emotion-aware visual guidance using EmotiCrafter, and these guidance vectors can be manipulated by the SEGA framework, which provides fine-grained semantic control for keyframe generation. Finally, image-to-video models are applied to the generated keyframes to synthesize temporally continuous 360$^\circ$ videos for immersive music visualization. Our pipeline generates 360$^\circ$ music visualization videos that reflect the emotional progression and temporal structure of the input song. We demonstrate its capability using songs from different genres and provide qualitative comparisons with From-Sound-To-Sight, a representative audio-to-visual generation baseline, on our project page at https://etoile-et-toi-mp3.github.io/BMTH_Project_Page/.

Mirror Theory proposes that an intelligent system should be studied not only by what it represents, but by what coherent continuations it can sustain under repeated reflection. We make this claim operational through \emph{viable path entropy} (VPE), a finite-budget measure of verified continuation capacity. Given a mirror state, a rollout protocol, a verifier, and a mode map, VPE decomposes bounded capability into two parts: the probability of reaching a viable continuation and the diversity of verified continuation modes reached among successful rollouts. This paper restores the full theoretical scaffold behind the measure: intuition as local underdetermining constraint, taste as invariant-selecting pressure, reflection as taste-guided resolution of underdetermination, and geometry as the learned structure that makes future reflection stable. We then instantiate the theory in language-model reasoning experiments on GSM8K. Across Qwen2.5-Instruct models, 32 sampled rollouts per problem, and two reflection horizons, increasing the token budget from 96 to 160 substantially expands verified reachability, reduces zero-reachability, increases verified-mode entropy, and improves smoothed VPE. At 160 tokens, Qwen2.5-1.5B realizes the strongest mirror horizon among the tested models, even though Qwen2.5-3B has more parameters. This shows that mirror horizon is not parameter count, but accessible verified continuation capacity under a bounded reflection protocol. The result supports Mirror Theory as a measure-level account: capability is the structure of viable continuations made reachable, not merely one-shot accuracy or pass@k.

We present key challenges and future research directions in the security and privacy of agentic AI, based on a horizon-scanning exercise that brought together thirty leading international experts from academia, industry, and government to engage in focused discussions and collaborative exercises on the emerging risks associated with the growing agency of AI.

Planning under uncertainty in continuous domains is essential for autonomous systems, yet computationally demanding. Tree-based search methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) remain popular, but their branching structure can require sampling budgets that grow exponentially with lookahead depth in the worst case. From a tree perspective, continuous state or action spaces become especially challenging, since the planner must decide where to search in an infinite branching hierarchy. We propose Graph Sparse Sampling (GSS), an online planning algorithm that shares sampled futures across many candidate decisions, rather than sampling separate successors for each candidate action. This branch-free graph exposes large GPU-friendly batches, while using heuristics to focus computation. We prove finite-sample performance guarantees for GSS covering full-rank or low-rank generative simulators via smoothed backups, and discrete or sampled continuous action spaces. Under suitable overlap, regularity, and action-coverage conditions, these bounds have polynomial dependence on the planning horizon, formalizing when shared futures can avoid the exponential horizon dependence of tree-shaped sparse sampling. We demonstrate continuous-control simulations where GSS substantially outperforms tree-based planners on long horizons or achieves near-optimal performance, supporting no-branching graph planning as a complementary design principle for online control.

We introduce Agents-A1, a 35B Mixture-of-Experts Agentic Model that reaches trillion-parameter-level performance by scaling the agent horizon. We investigate agent-horizon scaling from two perspectives: scaling long-horizon trajectories and scaling heterogeneous agent abilities. To support this goal, we build a long-horizon knowledge-action infrastructure that connects external knowledge, actions, observations, and verifier outcomes, producing agentic trajectories with an average length of 45K tokens. Based on this, we train Agents-A1 with a three-stage recipe. First, we perform full-domain supervised fine-tuning to align the base model with broad agentic behaviors. Second, we train domain-level teacher models to capture specialized expertise in each domain. Third, we propose a multi-teacher domain-routed on-policy distillation with salient vocabulary alignment to improve knowledge transfer efficiency across different domains, unifying six heterogeneous domains into one deployable student model. Agents-A1 achieves strong and broad performance for long-horizon agent benchmarks. Compared with 1T-parameter model such as Kimi-K2.6 and DeepSeek-V4-pro, Agents-A1 achieves leading results on SEAL-0 (56.4), IFBench (80.6), HiPhO (46.4), FrontierScience-Olympiad (79.0), and MolBench-Bind (56.8), and remains highly competitive on SciCode (44.3), HLE (47.6) and BrowseComp (75.5). We hope this work provides the community with a practical path for scaling the horizon using a 35B agent that can reach or match the performance of 1T models on long-horizon tasks.

In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head? We compare four modern backbones (TimesNet, DLinear, N-BEATS, iTransformer) under three output heads: a point head, a single-Gaussian density head, and a Gaussian mixture density head with K=4 components. On S and P 500 monthly log-returns (1871-2023) under anchored walk-forward validation, the three heads form a strict gradient: switching from point to Gaussian improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent; switching from Gaussian to mixture adds a further about 2.4 percent. Switching between backbones, in contrast, changes CRPS by less than 1.5 percent on the point-head row and on the backbone-mean axis; density-head backbone spread is larger (up to 5.1 percent on the h=1 Gaussian row, driven by N-BEATS) but the head gradient (3.7 percentage points) still dominates. The Model Confidence Set on squared errors does not exclude any of the 12 variants at the 5 percent level: the head separates them only on distributional metrics (CRPS, pinball, coverage), not on squared error. The mixture head incremental value over a single Gaussian is largest in the highest-volatility regimes (13.9 percent in 1970s stagflation at h=12), confirming the mixture captures tail risk beyond what a unimodal Gaussian can express. The picture is horizon-dependent: the head dominates at short horizons, but at long horizons (h >= 6) the backbone re-takes the lead - an h-split we document against classical baselines (section 5.1). We conclude that on fat-tailed returns at short horizons, the head dominates the backbone, and the mixture distribution adds genuine value over a single Gaussian during crisis periods when risk-management decisions actually matter.

Diffusion-based video relighting enables controllable relighting from a single input video, but modern video diffusion backbones are trained on short clips and applied to long-horizon videos through chunked sliding-window inference, often causing temporal discontinuities at chunk boundaries. We address this by reframing long-horizon relighting as \emph{temporally conditioned latent domain translation}. Our framework enforces cross-chunk continuity by propagating target-domain latents across boundaries and makes this behavior learnable using \emph{masked target-domain self-conditioning}, training the model to continue from temporally masked propagated context. We further introduce \emph{warm-start prompting} with a relit prompt anchor from a controllable generative model, which establishes the initial target-domain state and creates a general interface for prompt-based relighting. Experiments on in-the-wild long-horizon videos show markedly improved temporal consistency, with chunk-boundary artifacts largely reduced and unwanted appearance changes across chunks greatly suppressed.

Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy. We take the opposite position: most of the gap can be closed at far lower cost by tuning preprocessing rather than scaling models. We use Ridge regression as the testbed, since it has a closed-form solution and interpretable weights, which let the optimal hyperparameters be read off the search directly. We search over context length, local normalization, regularization, and augmentation on eight standard benchmarks and find three patterns. (1) Optimal lookback is strongly series-specific and often non-monotonic in forecast horizon, with fitted power-law exponents ranging from $+0.46$ on ETTm2 to $-0.19$ on Exchange and Traffic, challenging the convention that longer horizons need longer history. (2) Normalizing over a learned trailing fraction of the context, rather than its entirety, is almost universally preferred. (3) Series within the same dataset often disagree on hyperparameters; the optimal degree of cross-series sharing varies from fully shared to fully per-series. The resulting models beat prior linear forecasters on most dataset-horizon entries and exceed Transformer, MLP, and CNN baselines on six of eight benchmarks. The optimized hyperparameters also serve as a diagnostic on the data itself, revealing structures that larger models absorb silently into their learned parameters. We provide an accompanying interactive online demonstration and the code at https://sakanaai.github.io/SearchCast/.

A classical intuition holds that verifying a solution is easier than producing one. For today's coding agents, this intuition is being inverted: as foundation models develop stronger reasoning capabilities and engineering harnesses grow more sophisticated, generating complex candidate solutions is no longer difficult -- reliably verifying them has become the harder problem. Every verifier we can build is only a proxy for human intent, never the intent itself. This makes verification subject to a twofold difficulty: first, intent is underspecified by nature, making it inherently hard to faithfully check whether it has been fulfilled; second, during model training, optimization widens the gap between proxy and intent -- manifesting as reward hacking or signal saturation. To address this, we characterize the quality of verification signals along three dimensions -- scalability, faithfulness, and robustness -- and argue that achieving all three simultaneously is the central challenge. We further study four reward constructions: a test verifier for general coding tasks, a rubric verifier for frontend tasks, the user as verifier for real-world agent tasks, and an automated agent verifier for long-horizon tasks. Across different task types and policy capability levels, we conduct in-depth analysis and experiments on the core challenges of reward design and how to more effectively leverage reward signals. Experiments show that targeted verification design can effectively suppress reward hacking, improve task completion quality, and achieve significant gains across multiple internal and public benchmarks. These experiences collectively point to a core observation: no fixed reward function can remain effective as policy capability continues to grow; and verification must co-evolve with the generator.

Learned world models are useful only over horizons on which their rollout error remains controlled. We study trust-horizon certification for latent world models with known group symmetries. Given a one-step latent residual and a finite-time expansion estimate, we form a raw horizon curve and calibrate it with a split-conformal multiplicative factor. On the reproducible audit set, the conformal factor is $γ_α=1.0$: the raw certificate is already conservative under the audit protocol. Across 50 stable audits, we observe zero anti-conservative violations, corresponding to an exact-binomial 95% upper bound of 5.8% on the violation rate. Our main structural result is that exact equivariance transports a calibrated trust-horizon curve over the group orbit: when the environment dynamics, encoder, predictor, action transform, and latent metric satisfy the stated equivariance/invariance conditions, rollout errors and trust horizons are orbit-constant. Empirically, the implemented models exhibit small orbit-transport residuals, with median 1.1% and maximum 4.1% over 14 orbit audits. The certificate is also non-vacuous (median certified-to-measured horizon ratio 0.67). A certificate-level calibration-cost study shows two complementary regimes. On a symmetric 2D substrate, equivariant, plain, and augmented models are all orbit-valid from a single calibration sector -- no separation, because the substrate already makes non-equivariant baselines approximately orbit-robust. A 3D yaw audit shows the other regime: the equivariant model obtains a one-sector safe and non-vacuous orbit-valid certificate, while healthy non-equivariant baselines pay violation, slack, sharpness, or additional-sector cost. The certificate is a conservative, distributional audit rather than a global reachability guarantee, and certificate-guided subgoal spacing is not confirmed in the current 3D CEM-MPC behavior layer.

We ask a representation-learning question about physical world models: when does a conservation law remain certifiable after a model learns a latent representation? A certified horizon bounds -- in advance, from measurable model defects -- how many steps a rollout provably stays on a physical invariant's level set. The key design choice is what is certified: not a learned latent Hamiltonian or a learned scalar witness (a model can conserve either while drifting in true energy), but the decoded physical invariant obtained by decoding the latent state and evaluating the known invariant. Around this object we derive shell-horizon certificates whose budget decomposes into representation, readout, and latent-dynamics defects, with a monotone alignment bridge through which a soft learned witness yields a certified horizon for the decoded invariant, and test them across state, learned-lift, and pixel observations on conservative systems. Conservation certificates can survive learned representation, but not all geometric priors survive equally. Hard canonical symplectic structure yields the longest horizons in known phase coordinates yet does not cross a learned chart, whereas a controlled-Lipschitz-aligned soft invariant survives in the nonlinear learned-representation settings we test -- two lift systems, with the gain growing with nonlinearity, and pixels. Pixel certification is recovered on a readout-stable sub-tube, and the Kepler problem exposes a geometric boundary. The central object is therefore not a latent Hamiltonian, but a decoded physical invariant whose robustness to representation learning can be measured, certified, and falsified.

Learning accurate value functions plays a decisive role for reinforcement learning (RL) agents to solve long-horizon, complex tasks. Conventional temporal-difference (TD) learning objectives suffer from value-estimation bias that accumulates over the horizon, while extended-horizon modeling methods, such as n-step TD backups and Q-chunking, adopt a rigid, fixed-horizon value-modeling recipe that is often not flexible enough to capture complex value structures in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks. In this paper, we show that enabling value updates with dynamic horizon composition can yield a strong offline policy learning scheme. Our method, Horizon Adaptive Offline Policy Learning via VAlue STitching (VAST), replaces fixed-horizon backups with recursive, horizon-adaptive value composition. Its key ingredient is to couple value optimization with a future state- and horizon-length-conditioned auxiliary value function that is learned through direct data supervision, and a stitching policy that optimally selects the reward-maximizing horizon length and future sub-goal to achieve horizon-adaptive value stitching. This design enables direct estimation and compositional "stitching" of variable-length returns grounded in actionable sub-goal states, providing an accurate and greedily exploitable value-supervision signal for offline policy optimization. Across 50 tasks on OGBench, VAST outperforms fixed-step, extended-horizon methods, and generative-value offline RL baselines, achieving strong performance particularly in high-complexity, long-horizon decision-making tasks.

Unsupervised 3D seismic horizon tracking faces a key limitation: signal-based propagators provide accurate trace-level alignment but often fail near faults, whereas texture-driven deep models are more robust to discontinuities, typically at the cost of labeled data requirements and reduced trace-level precision. We propose a self-supervised fusion of both paradigms in which signal-derived local horizon correspondences act as domain-specific priors to train a texture-based deep learning model. Specifically, we estimate reliable trace-to-trace flows from reflector slopes and use them to form positive pairs in a contrastive objective, while restricting training to high-confidence neighborhoods, optionally augmented with a fault mask. The objective is not to infer ambiguous correspondences close to discontinuities, but to preserve horizon identity across them. As a result, the network learns voxel-wise embeddings that preserve local signal continuity while enabling horizon propagation beyond discontinuities through similarity search. Experiments on the public F3 dataset and a faulted synthetic dataset achieve lower mean absolute error (MAE) than unsupervised baselines and competitive performance against a semi-supervised method using a single labeled slice.

Scale buys interpolation; structure buys certifiable transfer. A world model's average error does not say whether a particular rollout can be trusted, or for how long. For equivariant latent world models we give a predictability certificate: a computable region spanning configuration, horizon, and resolution. Under exact equivariance, rollout error is invariant over the monoid generated by k primitive symmetries and is certified from the k generators (Theorem A); universal orbit-flatness over equivariant targets characterizes equivariance at the function level (Lemma 2), so an unconstrained architecture cannot certify the property by construction. Approximate orbit-transfer defects propagate by the finite-time Lyapunov spectrum (Theorem B): expanding channels give a logarithmic horizon $T_j(ε)\sim\log(1/ε)/λ_j$, neutral channels accumulate recurrent defect linearly, and contracting channels accumulate a bounded nonzero floor. Exact conserved charge values are certified to all horizons only at zero defect; with one-step defect $η$, charge-value error grows at most as $Tη$. Empirically, on a 40-dimensional learned model a $\mathbb{Z}_N$-equivariant network recovers the full Lyapunov spectrum ($R^2=0.98$-$0.99$) where dense and recurrent baselines fail. A cone/adapted-metric certificate reads an a-priori horizon off the model's own Jacobian, tight on uniformly hyperbolic dynamics and self-abstaining elsewhere; the resulting horizon improves a budgeted re-observation decision. For public non-equivariant world models the tangent spectrum gives a training-free candidate horizon, paired with a held-out divergence cross-check that abstains or corrects when the learned loop over-promises.

Multi-operator control of robot teams requires not only access to the same mission information, but also mechanisms for maintaining shared awareness and preventing conflicting interventions. Building on our previous HORUS interface (Holistic Operational Reality for Unified Systems) we present a mixed-reality interface that extends single-operator multi-robot supervision to collaborative multi-operator use. The system supports two complementary modes: a co-located shared workspace, in which operators observe and manipulate the same mini-map in the same physical location, and a private-workspace mode, in which operators work on the same mission through independently placed local workspaces. The architecture combines registration-driven scene construction, lightweight shared-session synchronization, and per-robot control leases to support collaborative monitoring, tasking, and teleoperation while preventing conflicting commands. We evaluated the approach in a human-subject study with 36 participants (18 pairs) controlling three Nova Carter mobile robots in two search environments. The performance of the objective task was comparable across the two modes, indicating that both modes supported effective mission execution. However, the co-located shared workspace significantly improved perceived collaboration, shared understanding, and handoff clarity, and was the preferred collaborative mode. These results indicate that physically co-locating the MR workspace improves how operators coordinate even when the underlying robot-control tools remain unchanged.

Scaling robust robot policies requires more than broader randomization, because physical-domain experience must remain organized and learnable throughout training. We study when a policy can benefit from harder physics and identify recoverability as a central constraint in on-policy physical-domain scaling. In on-policy training, new dynamics are useful only insofar as they remain close enough to the current policy to generate corrective on-policy data, rather than collapsing rollouts into unrecoverable failures. Using quadruped locomotion as a physically demanding benchmark for embodied generalization, we introduce HORIZON, a checkpointed frontier curriculum that expands physical domains only within the current policy's recoverable boundary. HORIZON uses rollback and boundary refinement to govern each expansion step, turning fixed randomization into a continual process of physical-domain growth. Experiments reveal three regularities of physical-domain expansion. First, direct domain widening is uneven across physical axes and often unlearnable without staged ordering. Second, domain composition is non-monotonic, and adding more domains beyond a compact core can dilute recoverable joint samples and reduce overall robustness. Third, offline distillation of isolated experts cannot substitute for the joint interaction generated by on-policy curriculum. Together, these results frame physical-domain generalization as a continual growth problem for embodied control, with recoverability as the organizing principle for on-policy expansion.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown remarkable progress for mobile manipulation, but their performance on long-horizon tasks remains poor. These tasks are especially challenging because (1) progress toward high-level goals must be maintained across extended sequences of spatially distributed subtasks, and (2) early execution errors compound rapidly over the task horizon. These challenges persist despite finetuning on large human teleoperated mobile manipulation data, indicating that more data alone may not resolve the problem. To address these challenges, we propose MPVI: Motion Planner / VLA Interleaving, a framework that integrates model-based motion planning with VLAs to improve robustness without further training. The proposed integration enables localization and navigation to distant or occluded target objects through cluttered scenes using open-vocabulary object detection, frontier exploration and motion planning. However, such integration is non-trivial, requiring reliable switching between modules; we show one way forward via VLM-based completion checking with proprioceptive triggers. We evaluate our approach on the BEHAVIOR-1K benchmark and demonstrate 113% improvement in task progress over a top end-to-end VLA baseline. Additional details are available at the project page: https://mpvi.netlify.app/.

Online 3D reconstruction requires estimating camera pose and scene geometry under strict causal and bounded-memory constraints. Existing methods often suffer from drift, jitter, or collapse on long sequences. We trace these failures to a fundamental mismatch. Streaming geometry is inherently temporally heterogeneous, with evidence ranging from short-lived correspondences to persistent global scale. However, current architectures impose uniform and pathological influence patterns. For example, sliding windows enforce hard cutoffs, while ungated recurrence and causal attention cause cache saturation and spike-like attention sinks. To resolve this, we formalize geometric propagation as an \emph{evidence influence kernel} and propose HorizonStream, a long-horizon Transformer that explicitly factorizes this kernel. For the long-range temporal factor, Geometric Linear Attention learns channel-wise decay rates to enable bounded, multi-timescale propagation of geometric evidence. For the short-range spatial factor, Geometric Local Attention with Spatiotemporal RoPE performs reliable 3D matching while suppressing attention sinks. Finally, Metric Readout Tokens recover stable scale and rigid pose directly from the persistent geometric state. Extensive experiments show that HorizonStream, trained on only 48-frame clips, generalizes stably to sequences exceeding 10,000\ frames with constant memory and linear time, achieving state-of-the-art streaming 3D reconstruction performance. Project Page: https://3dagentworld.github.io/horizonstream/

Long-horizon video generation suffers from two intertwined issues. First, there is drift, where video quality degrades over time. Second, there are continuity issues which manifest as object permanence issues, or improperly rendering transient content (e.g., an object that appears in non-consecutive frames changing color/style). Recent work has focused on autoregressive distillation techniques that attack both problems simultaneously. We instead choose to focus on drift directly and introduce \textbf{Anchored Tree Sampling (ATS)}: a training-free inference-time scheduler that replaces left-to-right rollout with sparse-to-dense, anchor-bounded imputation organized as a tree. A root call produces sparse anchors over the full horizon, recursive refinement generates intermediate anchors, and final leaf spans are synthesized between neighboring anchors. This reduces the critical path from $K$ sequential rollout steps to $L+1$ tree-hierarchical steps and converts horizon-compounding drift into anchor-bounded drift. We focus on V2V generation in the \emph{static-camera} regime, where sparse anchors over the horizon are well approximated by the dense conditioning signal, and the base model can produce them without retraining. We evaluate ATS against two contemporary autoregressive baselines on Wan $2.1$ $+$ VACE, across five conditioning modalities (inpainting, outpainting, edge, pose, depth). We show that ATS outperforms both competitors in overall quality, as well as in drift prevention. We additionally demonstrate stable $\geq 40$-minute generation on LTX-$2.3$ across the same five modalities. We conclude by proposing a path forward to extend ATS to arbitrarily long T2V generation, as well as the dynamic-camera and multi-shot regimes.

Many natural and engineered time series -- equity returns, climate anomalies, turbulent velocities, neural recordings, packet-level network traffic -- are approximately self-similar: their horizon-$T$ distribution is tied to the horizon-$1$ distribution by one scaling exponent $H$. Standard deep generative sequence models (transformers, dilated TCNs, the WaveNet family) ignore this. Their receptive fields are wide, but kernel parameters live independently at every dilation level, yielding a multi-scale architecture, not a scale-equivariant one. We make three contributions. First, we give a precise definition of discrete scale equivariance for 1D causal networks and prove that dyadic dilation commutes (up to boundary effects) with any dilated-convolution stack whose kernel weights are shared across levels. Tying the kernel shrinks the convolutional parameter budget by an $L$-fold factor (where $L$ is depth) and hard-wires self-similarity in as an inductive bias. Second, we wrap this Scale-Equivariant WaveNet (SE-WaveNet) backbone in three components that carry the same prior: a one-level Daubechies-4 wavelet input, a Hurst-FiLM block exposing the local scaling exponent, and a spectral-consistency training term targeting the $|f|^{-(2H+1)}$ power-law spectrum. The head is a conditional normalising flow, chosen to preserve equivariance. Third, on 30 years of S&P 500 daily log-returns, SE-WaveNet samples reproduce the empirical scaling-collapse diagnostic on the Allan-Variance top-25 universe (median $\mathcal{C}^\star = 0.020$), while a vanilla WaveNet at matched capacity does not ($\geq 0.06$). NLL, KS-calibration, and tail energy distance tie or beat the baseline, with $L\times$ fewer convolutional parameters.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) optimization is most commonly performed using general-purpose first-order optimizers such as Adam or SGD. Although robust across scenes, they update each parameter independently without exploiting the structural and spatial relationships among Gaussians, which slows convergence. Recent works introduced learned optimizers that predict correlated updates informed by inter-parameter and inter-Gaussian dependencies. However, those are trained for a fixed number of optimization iterations and rely on manually scheduled learning rates to avoid degradation. In this paper, we introduce Learn2Splat, a learned optimizer for 3DGS that avoids degradation over extended optimization horizons without auxiliary mechanisms. To enable this, we propose a meta-learning scheme that extends the optimization horizon via a checkpoint buffer and an optimizer rollout strategy, combined with an architecture that encodes gradient scale information in its latent states. Results show higher novel view synthesis quality at equal wall-clock time, while remaining stable over long horizons, with zero-shot generalization to unseen datasets and settings. To support our findings, we build a unified framework to train and evaluate learned and standard optimizers across sparse and dense view settings. Code and models will be released publicly. Our project page is available at https://autonomousvision.github.io/learn2splat .

Medical multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced image understanding and short-video analysis, but real clinical review often requires full-procedure video understanding. Unlike general long videos, medical procedures contain highly redundant anatomical views, while decisive evidence is temporally sparse, spatially subtle, and context dependent. Existing benchmarks often assume this evidence has already been localized through images, short clips, or pre-segmented videos, leaving the retrieval-before-reasoning problem under-tested. We introduce MedHorizon, an in-the-wild benchmark for long-context medical video understanding. MedHorizon preserves 759 hours of full-length clinical procedures and provides 1,253 evidence-grounded multiple-choice questionsthat jointly evaluate sparse evidence understanding and multi-hop clinical reasoning. Its evidence is extremely sparse, with only 0.166% evidence frames on average, requiring models to search noisy procedural streams before interpreting and aggregating findings. We evaluate representative general-domain, medical-domain, and long-video MLLMs. The best model reaches only 41.1% accuracy, showing that current systems remain far from robust full-procedure understanding. Further analysis yields four key findings: performance does not scale reliably with more frames, evidence retrieval and clinical interpretation remain primary bottlenecks; these bottlenecks are rooted in weak procedural reasoning and attention drift under redundancy, and generic sampling methods only partially balances local detail with global coverage. MedHorizon provides a rigorous testbed for MLLMs that retrieve sparse evidence and reason over complete clinical workflows.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise as interactive agents that solve tasks through extended sequences of environment interactions. While prior work has primarily focused on system-level optimizations or algorithmic improvements, the role of task horizon length in shaping training dynamics remains poorly understood. In this work, we present a systematic empirical study that examines horizon length through controlled task constructions. Specifically, we construct controlled tasks in which agents face identical decision rules and reasoning structures, but differ only in the length of action sequences required for successful completion. Our results reveal that increasing horizon length alone constitutes a training bottleneck, inducing severe training instability driven by exploration difficulties and credit assignment challenges. We demonstrate that horizon reduction is a key principle to address this limitation, stabilizing training and achieving better performance in long-horizon tasks. Moreover, we find that horizon reduction is related to stronger generalization across horizon lengths: models trained under reduced horizons generalize more effectively to longer-horizon variants at inference time, a phenomenon we refer to as horizon generalization.

Safety critical control of robotic manipulation tasks involving deformable media such as fluids, cloth, and soft objects remains challenging because existing learning based approaches encode safety indirectly through reward shaping, which provides no guarantee of constraint satisfaction at deployment. We present a constraint driven online safety filter for deformable object manipulation that enforces explicit task level safety constraints in real time by minimally modifying any nominal control policy. Our approach combines two key components: a horizon agnostic neural operator that learns the boundary input output mapping of the underlying PDE dynamics and generalizes across variable rollout lengths without retraining, and a boundary control barrier function that certifies safety at the task relevant output level via a lightweight quadratic program. The resulting safety constraint is affine in the boundary input rate, enabling real time online filtering. We evaluate the proposed method on fluid manipulation tasks in FluidLab, where the filter improves safe trajectory rates by up to 22% over unfiltered base policies while also reducing the number of steps required to reach the safe set, demonstrating that constraint driven safety enforcement is both more reliable and more efficient than reward shaping approaches.

User preferences evolve across months of interaction, and tracking them requires inferring when a stated preference has been changed by a subsequent life event. We define this problem as long-horizon personalization and observe that progress on it is limited by data availability and measurement, with no existing resource providing both naturalistic long-horizon interactions and the ground-truth provenance needed to diagnose why models fail. We introduce a data generator that produces conversations from a structured mental state graph, yielding ground-truth provenance for every preference change across 6-month timelines, and from it construct HorizonBench, a benchmark of 4,245 items from 360 simulated users with 6-month conversation histories averaging ~4,300 turns and ~163K tokens. HorizonBench provides a testbed for long-context modeling, memory-augmented architectures, theory-of-mind reasoning, and user modeling. Across 25 frontier models, the best model reaches 52.8% and most score at or below the 20% chance baseline. When these models err on evolved preferences, over a third of the time they select the user's originally stated value without tracking the updated user state. This belief-update failure persists across context lengths and expression explicitness levels, identifying state-tracking capability as the primary bottleneck for long-horizon personalization.

User behavior in the real world is diverse, cross-domain, and spans long time horizons. Existing user modeling benchmarks however remain narrow, focusing mainly on short sessions and next-item prediction within a single domain. Such limitations hinder progress toward robust and generalizable user models. We present HORIZON, a new benchmark that reformulates user modeling along three axes i.e. dataset, task, and evaluation. Built from a large-scale, cross-domain reformulation of Amazon Reviews, HORIZON covers 54M users and 35M items, enabling both pretraining and realistic evaluation of models in heterogeneous environments. Unlike prior benchmarks, it challenges models to generalize across domains, users, and time, moving beyond standard missing-positive prediction in the same domain. We propose new tasks and evaluation setups that better reflect real-world deployment scenarios. These include temporal generalization, sequence-length variation, and modeling unseen users, with metrics designed to assess general user behavior understanding rather than isolated next-item prediction. We benchmark popular sequential recommendation architectures alongside LLM-based baselines that leverage long-term interaction histories. Our results highlight the gap between current methods and the demands of real-world user modeling, while establishing HORIZON as a foundation for research on temporally robust, cross-domain, and general-purpose user models.

Multi-period portfolio optimization is important for real portfolio management, as it accounts for transaction costs, path-dependent risks, and the intertemporal structure of trading decisions that single-period models cannot capture. Classical methods usually follow a two-stage framework: machine learning algorithms are employed to produce forecasts that closely fit the realized returns, and the predicted values are then used in a downstream portfolio optimization problem to determine the asset weights. This separation leads to a fundamental misalignment between predictions and decision outcomes, while also ignoring the impact of transaction costs. To bridge this gap, recent studies have proposed the idea of end-to-end learning, integrating the two stages into a single pipeline. This paper introduces IPMO (Integrated Prediction and Multi-period Portfolio Optimization), a model for multi-period mean-variance portfolio optimization with turnover penalties. The predictor generates multi-period return forecasts that parameterize a differentiable convex optimization layer, which in turn drives learning via portfolio performance. For scalability, we introduce a mirror-descent fixed-point (MDFP) differentiation scheme that avoids factorizing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) systems, which thus yields stable implicit gradients and nearly scale-insensitive runtime as the decision horizon grows. In experiments with real market data and two representative time-series prediction models, the IPMO method consistently outperforms the two-stage benchmarks in risk-adjusted performance net of transaction costs and achieves more coherent allocation paths. Our results show that integrating machine learning prediction with optimization in the multi-period setting improves financial outcomes and remains computationally tractable.

Can AI make progress on important, unsolved mathematical problems? Large language models are now capable of sophisticated mathematical and scientific reasoning, but whether they can perform novel research is still widely debated and underexplored. We introduce HorizonMath, a benchmark of 113 predominantly unsolved problems spanning eight domains in mathematics and the mathematical sciences, paired with an open-source evaluation framework for automated verification. Our benchmark targets the generator-verifier gap: problems where discovery is hard and requires meaningful mathematical insight, but verification is computationally straightforward. This contrasts with most existing research-level benchmarks, which instead rely on formal proof verification or manual review, both of which are expensive to scale. Because these solutions are unknown, HorizonMath is resistant to data contamination, and most state-of-the-art models score under 10%. Using this framework, we identify six novel solutions to research problems that either resolve previously open questions or improve on the best-known published results, with GPT-5.4 Pro and GPT-5.6 Sol each discovering three of these solutions. Across seven frontier model families, reasoning efficiency and behavior also vary substantially. We release HorizonMath as an open challenge and a growing community resource, where each verified solution is a candidate contribution to the mathematical literature.