Reliable Uncertainty Quantification

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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Period ending 2026-09-07

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  1. Neural Network-Based Estimation of Time-Dependent Parameters in AR(p) Processes

    Jul 1, 2026Agnieszka Kopeć, Paweł Przybyłowicz, Martyna WiącekMultivariate ForecastingPredictive Uncertainty

  2. Mind the Residual Gap: Probabilistic Downscaling under Real-World Bias

    Jun 29, 2026Yujin Kim, Nidhi Soma, Sarah DeanDynamical DownscalingPredictive Uncertainty

  3. Beyond Point Estimates for Glaucoma Visual Field Forecasting with Diffusion Models

    Jun 29, 2026Marta Colmenar Herrera, Pablo Márquez Neila, Şerife Seda Kucur Ergünay +2Predictive UncertaintyPixel-Level Prediction

  4. ECHO: Learning Epistemically Adaptive Language Agents with Turn-Level Credit

    Jun 29, 2026Abhijnan Nath, Nikhil KrishnaswamyEpistemic StanceMultilingual Agents

  5. Analyzing Uncertainty in the Spatial Representation of the Kinematic Bicycle Model

    Jun 28, 2026Shafayat Abrar, M. Zaeem Baig, Shahir Ul Islam Anzal +1OdometryVehicle Dynamics

  6. MoPe: Motion Permanence for Robust Monocular Gaussian Mapping in Dynamic Environments

    Jun 28, 2026Qixin XiaoGaussian Splatting Simultaneous Localization And Mapping SystemsMulti-Object Tracking

  7. A Bayesian latent Gaussian process framework for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification

    Jun 27, 2026Geoffrey Davis, Ashwin RenganathanAerodynamicsCalibrated Uncertainty

  8. Estimation-Prediction Tradeoff in Causal Probabilistic Temporal Graphs

    Jun 26, 2026Aniq Ur RahmanTemporal GraphsPredictive Uncertainty

  9. From Signals to Transfer: A Factorised Study of Probe-Based Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

    Jun 26, 2026Ponhvoan Srey, Xiaobao Wu, Cong-Duy Nguyen +3Large Language Model UncertaintyInput Uncertainties

  10. Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Graham Gibson, John Tipton, Kellin Rumsey +1Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationBayesian

  11. Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA

    Jun 25, 2026Eren Senoglu, Federico Toschi, Nicolo Brunello +2Medical Visual Question AnsweringMultimodal Clinical Data

  12. Uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction in data assimilation

    Jun 25, 2026Catherine George, Alireza Javanmardi, Tijana Janjić +1Conformal PredictionData Assimilation

  13. Uncertainty Quantification for Computer-Use Agents: A Benchmark across Vision-Language Models and GUI Grounding Datasets

    Jun 24, 2026Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik +5Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationComputer-Use Agents

  14. Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression

    Jun 23, 2026Kun Jin, James Harrison, Jiawei Li +8Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationQuantile Regression

  15. Uncertainty-aware reinforcement learning for chemical language models

    Jun 23, 2026Borja Medina, Jon Paul JanetLarge Language Model UncertaintyUncertainty-Aware Inference

  16. Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning

    Jun 23, 2026Arya Hariharan, Shreyank N Gowda, Anala M RAlzheimerPredictive Uncertainty

  17. AI Scientists as Engines of Discovery: A Case for Development within Reformed Institutions

    Jun 22, 2026Raul Jimenez, Boris Bolliet, Francisco Villaescusa-Navarro +7Artificial Intelligence ScientistsMulti-Agent Systems

  18. The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models

    Jun 22, 2026Xiang-Jun Ou, Shuang Liang, Xin-Yu Hu +3Large Language Model UncertaintyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  19. Interpretable Uncertainty Routing Separating Emotion Ambiguity from Distribution Shift in Facial Expression Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Keito Inoshita, Takato UenoInput UncertaintiesFacial Expression Recognition

  20. Bayesian Adaptation Gym: A Benchmark for the Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation of Multi-Modal Language Models

    Jun 20, 2026Colin Samplawski, Ramneet Kaur, Manoj Acharya +2Large Language Model AdaptationLow-Rank Adaptation

  21. Decision-Focused Learning: When and Why Traditional Prediction Models Fail

    Jun 19, 2026Mo LiuPredictive UncertaintySequential Decision Making

  22. Embedding Linear Equality Constraints in Probabilistic Neural Networks for Dynamic Modelling

    Jun 19, 2026Matthew Marsh, Benoit Chachuat, Antonio del Rio ChanonaInequality ConstraintsChemical Process Systems

  23. Rejections Based on Predictive Uncertainty Enable Reliable Routine Soil Spectroscopy

    Jun 19, 2026Jonas Schmidinger, Robin Gebbers, Marc-Olivier Gasser +3SoilSpectra

  24. Continuous-Time Probabilistic Correctors for Uncertainty-Aware Physics-Based Spacecraft Trajectory Forecasting

    Jun 19, 2026Muhammad Bilal Shahid, Zhanhong Jiang, Soumik Sarkar +1Predictive UncertaintyTrajectory Prediction

  25. Study on Quantitative Dynamic Epistemic Logic for Belief Revision

    Jun 18, 2026Felipe Nunes de Souza CamargoInitial Human Belief DistributionsModal Logic

  26. Autonomous Driving with Priority-Ordered STL Specifications Under Multimodal Uncertainty

    Jun 18, 2026Taha Bouzid, Shuhao Qi, Mircea Lazar +1Signal Temporal LogicModel Predictive Path Integral

  27. Quantile of Means: A Bonus-Free Ensemble Method for Minimax Optimal Reinforcement Learning

    Jun 18, 2026Asaf Cassel, Aviv RosenbergEfficient ExplorationMulti-Armed Bandits

  28. On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions

    Jun 17, 2026Sam Goring, Tom Kuipers, Nicola Paoletti +1Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationQuantile Regression

  29. Uncertainty Decomposition for Clarification Seeking in LLM Agents

    Jun 17, 2026Gregory MatsnevLarge Language Model UncertaintyLarge Language Model Agents

  30. LLM Doesn't Know What It Doesn't Know: Detecting Epistemic Blind Spots via Cross-Model Attribution Divergence on Clinical Tabular Data

    Jun 17, 2026Akshat Dasula, Prasanna Desikan, Jaideep SrivastavaLarge Language Model ReliabilityEpistemic Stance

  31. Confidence is Not Reliability: Rethinking MC Dropout in Brain Tumour Segmentation

    Jun 17, 2026Xin Ci Wong, Duygu Sarikaya, Kieran Zucker +2Brain Tumor SegmentationCalibrated Uncertainty

  32. Uncertainty Quantification for Flow-Based Vision-Language-Action Models

    Jun 16, 2026Ralf Römer, Maximilian Seeliger, Saida Liu +5Flow-Matching Vision-Language-ActionVision-Language-Action Models

  33. Trustworthy MRI Reconstruction via Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification with Sparsity Prior Models

    Jun 15, 2026Ahmed Karam Eldaly, Matteo Figini, Daniel C. AlexanderMagnetic Resonance Imaging ReconstructionImage Reconstruction

  34. Decision-Driven Geosteering Under Uncertainty: A Unified Framework for Sequential Decision Optimization

    Jun 15, 2026Hibat Errahmen Djecta, Sergey Alyaev, Kristian Fossum +3Uncertainty-Aware InferenceSub-Surface Mineral Prospectivity Modelling

  35. Uncertainty Quantification of Engineering Structures by Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Multivariate Active Learning

    Jun 15, 2026Qitian Lu, Jafar Jafari-Asl, Panagiotis Spyridis +1Surrogate ModelsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  36. Uncertainty Quality of VGGT: An Analysis on the DTU Benchmark Dataset

    Jun 15, 2026Markus Hillemann, Robert Langendörfer, Steven Landgraf +1Reconstruction QualityCvpr

  37. Heteroskedastic Signals in Budgeted LLM Verification: Structural Heterogeneity Limits Optimization Gains

    Jun 14, 2026Jinlong YangHeterogeneityReducible Uncertainty

  38. Visualizing Uncertainty: Spatial Maps of Missing and Conflicting Evidence in Deep Learning

    Jun 14, 2026Dong Hyun Jeong, Feng Chen, Jin-Hee Cho +3Etsi-Compliant Class Activation MapInput Uncertainties

  39. Bayesian 3D Steerable CNNs: Enabling Equivariance and Uncertainty Quantification Simultaneously

    Jun 13, 2026Abhishek Keripale, Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan, Susanta GhoshBayesian Neural NetworksReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  40. Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems

    Jun 11, 2026Sam F. Greenbury, Radka Jersakova, Paolo Conti +4Predictive UncertaintyEmulators

  41. Exposure Bias as Epistemic Underidentification in Recursive Forecasting

    Jun 11, 2026Riku Green, Zahraa S. Abdallah, Telmo M Silva FilhoEpistemic UncertaintyEpistemic Stance

  42. Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind

    Jun 10, 2026Robin YoungEpistemic UncertaintyEpistemic Actions

  43. Measuring Epistemic Resilience of LLMs Under Misleading Medical Context

    Jun 10, 2026Hongjian Zhou, Xinyu Zou, Jinge Wu +19Large Language Model EvaluationDiagnostic Benchmark

  44. What Uncertainties Do We Need for Dynamical Systems?

    Jun 10, 2026Yusuf Sale, Christopher Bülte, Felix Czaja +2Epistemic UncertaintyDynamical Systems

  45. Structure-Preserving Neural Surrogates with Tractable Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 10, 2026Handi Zhang, Adrienne M. Propp, Brooks Kinch +2Reduced-Order ModelsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  46. SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment

    Jun 9, 2026Kaiwen Shi, Zheyuan Zhang, Yanfang YeReducible UncertaintyLarge Language Model Uncertainty

  47. Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification

    Jun 9, 2026Arthur HoarauEpistemic Uncertainty

  48. Toward Proactive RF Charging Scheduling: Generative AI for Decision Support

    Jun 9, 2026Amirhossein Azarbahram, Osmel M. Rosabal, David Ernesto Ruiz-Guirola +3Open Radio Access NetworksWireless Networks

  49. SHAPO: Sharpness-Aware Policy Optimization for Safe Exploration

    Jun 8, 2026Kaustubh Mani, Yann Pequignot, Vincent Mai +1Multi-Objective Policy OptimizationAutonomous Exploration Strategies

  50. Improving PET/CT-Based Whole-Body Lesion Segmentation Using Prediction Uncertainty-Augmented Models

    Jun 8, 2026Bashirul Azam Biswas, Biratal Raj Wagle, Zhihan Yang +4Lesion SegmentationPositron Emission Tomography

  51. Code Is More Than Text: Uncertainty Estimation for Code Generation

    Jun 8, 2026Yuling Shi, Caiqi Zhang, Yuexian Li +4Code GenerationLarge Language Model Uncertainty

  52. Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts

    Jun 7, 2026Ágnes Baran, Máté MihalinaNumerical Weather PredictionPost-Processing

  53. Conformal Prediction for Neural Operators: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Physics Simulation

    Jun 7, 2026Michael ChinReliable Uncertainty QuantificationNeural Operators

  54. Inverse design of bespoke interatomic potentials via active learning by information-matching

    Jun 6, 2026Yonatan Kurniawan, Logan D. Williams, Amit Samanta +6Interatomic PotentialsMolecular Dynamics

  55. The AI Epistemic Deference Index: A Continuous Measure of Sycophancy

    Jun 5, 2026Alejandro Botas, Paul de Font-Reaulx, Luke HewittSycophancyArtificial Intelligence Evaluation

  56. Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

    Jun 5, 2026Karla Tame-Narvaez, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Shubhendu TrivediReliable Uncertainty QuantificationFoundation Model

  57. No-Harm Physics-Informed Inverse Learning with Residual-Calibrated Uncertainty

    Jun 5, 2026Ronald KatendeIll-Posed Inverse ProblemCalibrated Uncertainty

  58. Are you sure? A Comprehensive and Comprehensible Survey of Uncertainty Quantification in Symbolic Regression

    Jun 4, 2026Julia Reuter, Fabricio Olivetti de FrancaReliable Uncertainty QuantificationSymbolic Regression

  59. A Komi-Yazva--Russian Parallel Corpus and Evaluation Protocol for Zero- and Few-Shot LLM Translation

    Jun 4, 2026Petr ParshakovText CorporaEvaluation Protocols

  60. Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data

    Jun 4, 2026Rebecca Potts, Aiden Durrant, Rick Hackney +1Gas Turbine CombustorReliable Uncertainty Quantification