Monotonicity

We study repeated contract design when a principal observes outcomes but not the actions that generate them. The principal may use any bounded outcome-contingent payment vector, and the agent's best response can make expected profit discontinuous in those payments. For every fixed number $m\ge2$ of outcomes, the minimax regret over $T$ rounds is of order $T^{m/(m+1)}$, up to logarithmic factors. The upper bound allows arbitrary action spaces and agent heterogeneity, without smoothness or monotone-surplus assumptions. Its key is an effective-dimension reduction that the benchmark can be normalized even when fixed tie-breaking is not shift invariant, after which revealed preference yields a monotone response map in payment-difference coordinates. A learning policy built on a Lipschitz parametrization of this map attains the rate using only observed outcome categories. The lower-bound construction accounts for how incentive losses accumulate across outcome dimensions. It shows that each additional contractible outcome creates a precise and unavoidable increase in the worst-case cost of learning.

We propose Low-Rank Quantile Surfaces (LRQS), a bivariate causal model in which, in the causal direction, an unknown monotone transformation of the conditional quantile surface admits a low-rank functional decomposition. LRQS subsumes location-scale noise models and post-nonlinear heteroscedastic noise models, while allowing multiple quantile bases to represent changes beyond location-scale effects. We prove generic identifiability of LRQS: the transformed quantile surface is low rank in the causal direction, whereas reverse representability under the corresponding constraints occurs only for exceptional, fine-tuned cause marginals. We provide a simple-yet-powerful causal score using a nonparametric fitting procedure that alternates between rank-constrained approximation of discretized quantile surfaces and isotonic estimation of the unknown monotone transformation. Experiments on synthetic mechanisms with higher-rank distributional shape variation and strong nonlinear distortions, together with standard bivariate benchmarks, show that LRQS is especially effective when conditional distributional shape or observation distortion goes beyond existing location-scale assumptions.

Sequential deliberation is a mechanism for collective decision making: at each round, a uniformly randomly selected pair is asked to revise a collective outcome, which then becomes the reference point for the next round. Existing theory by Fain et al.~\cite{fain2017sequential} treats the current outcome solely as the disagreement alternative in bargaining. Yet an existing draft, policy, or proposal might carry social influence and anchor participants' expressed positions toward the status quo. We introduce anchored sequential deliberation on a one-dimensional decision space. In each round, two participants with bliss points $U$ and $V$ shift their positions toward the previous outcome $O_{t-1}$ with anchoring strength $λ$, then Nash-bargain using $O_{t-1}$ as the disagreement alternative. The update simplifies to $O_t=(1-λ)\mathsf{Median}\{U,V,O_{t-1}\}+λO_{t-1}$. We establish a convergence--stability trade-off. For every population distribution and $λ<1$, the process has a unique stationary distribution. A monotone coupling yields a $1$-Wasserstein contraction factor of at most $\frac{1+λ}{2}$ and at least $λ$; thus, stronger anchoring slows mixing. On the other hand, stationary social cost weakly decreases with $λ$, although the worst-case distortion remains $\frac{1+\sqrt{2}}{2}$. We also identify a unique \emph{deliberative fixed point}, where the expected unanchored movement is zero, and prove that the stationary distribution concentrates around it as $λ\to 1$. For the uniform population, stationary distortion lies between $1+\frac{1-λ}{9+7λ}$ and $1+\frac{1-λ}{6(1+λ)}$, with both bounds approaching $1$ as $λ\to1$. Simulations for uniform and Beta populations show that stronger anchoring slows mixing, concentrates the stationary distribution, and lowers stationary distortion in these instances.

Bakhtiari, Lattimore and Szepesv'ari (COLT 2025) proved that Thompson sampling (TS) has Bayesian regret $\tilde O(d^{5/2}\sqrt n)$ for bandit convex optimisation with convex \emph{monotone} ridge losses $f(x)=\ell(\ip{x}{\theta})$, and asked whether monotonicity of the link is necessary. We give a qualitative negative answer. For every prior on $[0,1]$-valued, $1$-Lipschitz convex ridge losses with an arbitrary convex, possibly non-monotone, link, and for any fixed measurable selection of minimisers, exact-posterior TS has Bayesian regret $O\big((d+1)^4\sqrt{dn}\,\log(e+nd\max\{1,\diam K\})\big)=\tilde O(d^{9/2}\sqrt n)$. The monotone proof relies on a single-removal John-ellipsoid dichotomy; we show by an explicit twelve-point configuration that this dichotomy fails for non-monotone links, and replace it by an $O(d^2)$ cardinality bound for ``uninformative'' configurations. The bound uses a Boolean rounding argument: a $0$-$1$ matrix within $1/(4r)$ in max-norm of a rank-$r$ matrix has rank at most $2r-1$. We construct $d(d+1)$ uninformative losses, showing that the cardinality bound is tight up to constants in the large-diameter-to-gap regime, and give a self-contained information-ratio-to-regret transfer that is uniform over fixed measurable selections. Whether the $d^{5/2}$ dependence of the monotone case can be retained remains open.

We construct counterexamples to Rockafellar's sum conjecture in which two maximally monotone operators satisfy the interior-domain condition but their sum is not maximally monotone, thereby providing the complete disproof of the conjecture. We establish a general construction theorem that computes the entire monotone polar of a class of graphs, gives a necessary and sufficient condition for their maximal monotonicity, and shows how a positive rank-one perturbation yields a nonmaximal sum under this condition. We verify the theorem's hypotheses and its maximality criterion on $c_0$, thereby obtaining a counterexample to the conjecture. Furthermore, we construct a bounded linear surjection from $\ell^1$ onto $c_0$ and use it to obtain the counterexample on $\ell^1$. Lean formalizations of the $c_0$ counterexample and the pullback lemma are also provided.

Topic models summarize large text corpora, but top-ranked words often provide only a limited representation of topic semantics. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) offer a way to move beyond word-level descriptors by extracting interpretable features from dense representations, yet how feature interpretability relates to topic-inference quality remains unclear. We introduce \textbf{MonoTM}, an interpretable topic modeling framework that decouples these roles. Across three benchmark corpora, we show that document--topic mixture estimation and semantic interpretation favor different SAE configurations and feature subsets. MonoTM estimates mixtures from the full SAE bag-of-features representation and, with them fixed, learns topic descriptors over a separate vocabulary of corpus-grounded semantic features. This design preserves global topic structure while representing topics with semantic units more meaningful than individual words, making them more useful for downstream corpus analysis.

Reasoning shortcuts are solutions of a neurosymbolic system's rules that produce correct predictions through unintended concepts. A recent framework of Takemura, Inoue, and Nishino analyzes them through an automorphism group of value relabelings and asks, as its central open question, when rules pin concepts down. We first show that the framework's key definition, one shared permutation applied at every position, does not apply as stated to any of the four heterogeneous benchmarks it was evaluated on, and that the most direct embedding, padding domains to a common size, produces confident false pathology: 90.91% of solution pairs reported unexplained on CLE4EVR, where every well-defined member of the hierarchy we introduce reports 0%, and the padded verdict's content rotates with configuration-file ordering. Re-measuring eleven rule families under fifteen pre-specified predictions (thirteen confirmed), unexplained-pair rates span 0% to 99.9999% and track provable structure: six theorems give sufficient conditions for transitivity and its failure, including a Free Slot Lemma certifying Kandinsky's pathology from syntax alone. For circuit-given rules, deciding symmetry-inertness of a coordinate is coNP-complete; nontrivial-automorphism existence is coNP-hard under randomized reductions, lies in $Σ_2^p$, is not $Σ_2^p$-complete unless PH collapses, and on monotone circuits is coNP-complete outright. In the Boolean case transitivity is classified exactly: automorphisms explain everything iff the solution set is an affine coset. Weakly supervised models place all 94 observed shortcuts at the one level the componentwise theory flags and none at the 48 it certifies transitive; twelve typed-ambiguous levels produce none, separating what symmetry permits from what optimization selects, and a dual-head control replicates the geography. All numbers trace to released artifacts.

Post-hoc calibration aligns a classifier's predicted confidences with its empirical accuracy without retraining. An ideal calibrator should correct nonlinear miscalibration, scale gracefully to large label spaces, and preserve the original predictions; existing methods typically violate at least one of these properties---temperature scaling lacks expressivity, more flexible parametric alternatives introduce parameters that grow with the number of classes $C$, and other expressive methods do not preserve the rank ordering of class scores and may alter the predicted class. We propose \textbf{Invertible Logits Transformation (InvLT)}, which applies a learned scalar MLP $f:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ element-wise to the pre-softmax logits. Sharing $f$ across all logit dimensions makes the parameter count independent of $C$. Monotonicity of $f$---and hence preservation of the argmax prediction---is softly encouraged via a paired inverse network rather than enforced through the numerical integration required by prior monotone calibrators; this avoids their computational overhead while empirically preserving the original classification accuracy in every setting we evaluate. Across standard image classification benchmarks and a range of architectures, InvLT consistently outperforms a broad set of post-hoc baselines on standard calibration metrics.

A score-driven filter multiplies its scaled log-likelihood score by a scale parameter. We call this coefficient the gain and learn it online. Given the current state and realised scaled score, each admissible gain selects a reachable next state and predictive density. A scalar gain moves along a line; diagonal gains control coordinatewise transmission and may change direction. We evaluate gain selection using a one-step predictive Kullback-Leibler objective. In the scalar unscaled case, the negative consecutive-score product is a stochastic gradient; the positive product used in accelerated recursions is a descent direction. Positive scalar score scaling changes only the effective learning rate. Strictly increasing, continuously differentiable gain links with positive derivative induce mirror-descent geometry, while persistence adds a Bregman pull towards a reference gain. Under convexity, compactness, integrability, and schedule conditions, projected and discounted mirror updates satisfy dynamic-regret bounds relative to time-varying, current-information comparators. Simulations isolate score scaling, link geometry, persistence, and coordinatewise gains. Across twelve equity indices, the bounded discounted-logistic gain records a lower out-of-sample mean negative log score than the constant gain in eleven markets, although market-level evidence is mixed. It also avoids the extreme transients of the numerically capped exponential-link benchmark.

Small open-weight language models increasingly run in private, offline, and cost-sensitive settings, where the key deployment question is not only what a model answers but when it should defer to a human. We study whether verbalized confidence can support risk-controlled deferral, evaluating eleven instruction-tuned models from three families, 0.5B to 14B parameters, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA with 25,168 local predictions. Three theoretical results delimit what calibration can provide: strictly monotone calibration preserves the risk-coverage frontier and error-detection AUROC; temperature scaling cannot calibrate models whose confidence stays above one half while accuracy falls below it; and a Clopper-Pearson procedure converts a 200-question calibration set into a finite-sample risk certificate under an i.i.d. deployment assumption. Empirically, eight of 22 model-task pairs hit the temperature-scaling infeasibility floor within one percentage point of the predicted bound. Platt scaling reduces ECE to as low as 0.02, yet certified autonomy at a 20% risk budget is granted to only three model-task pairs and to none at 10%. We also identify and repair an answer-ordering artifact in the multiple-choice form of TruthfulQA. Calibration gives confidence semantics; certified deferral determines when small models are safe to use.

We present Caliber, an output-perturbation defense against model extraction that formulates noise selection as a calibration problem: how much the defense degrades the supervision signal used to train a surrogate, and the provable per-input query cost of recovering the clean logits. To defend against an attacker that uses returned scores for knowledge distillation, Caliber adds independent and identically distributed Gaussian noise to the internal logits. We establish two properties of the resulting perturbed predictions. Monotone agreement degradation: When the clean logits have a unique maximizer, agreement with the clean prediction decreases strictly with the noise scale, so every target in $(1/K,1)$ corresponds to a unique positive scale; task accuracy is bounded by computable lower and upper envelopes. Per-input recovery cost: We derive a closed-form minimax lower bound on the repeated queries needed to recover the clean logits for a fixed input. Caliber normalizes noise variance by the squared median top-two logit margin and fits the resulting noise-utility relationship with a logistic curve, either per model or shared within a task. Across more than thirty model-dataset combinations, per-model calibration achieves mean absolute relative errors of 0.6-1.4%. End-to-end experiments show that surrogate performance generally tracks the configured degradation, while fixed-input averaging follows the expected variance reduction.

The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) tests whether a model can infer an unseen transformation from a few input-output examples and apply it to a new grid. Looped visual reasoners refine predictions over multiple iterations, but conventional training constrains only the final output, leaving intermediate refinements unconstrained. We propose that these refinements should instead follow the transformation step by step. We introduce TraceViT, a looped visual reasoner trained with semantically monotonic transformation chains. We obtain these chains by rewriting and verifying programmatic task implementations, decomposing each solution into intermediate grid states. Each iteration is grounded by a task reference derived from the few-shot demonstrations and an object workspace representing the current grid state. Because these chains may differ in length from the loop, soft trace alignment enforces only their ordering, letting the model allocate iterations freely. TraceViT achieves 67.8% pass@2 on ARC-AGI-1 and 24.3% on ARC-AGI-2. Controlled ablations on ARC-AGI-1 show that trace supervision becomes beneficial only when paired with grounding. Code and data will be available at https://github.com/LiuBinnan/TraceViT.

We study transcript management for fixed, finite-precision causal Transformers. A transcript is partitioned into channels of bounded blocks. Each transition consults a fixed visible suffix and may append one block, leaving the model, weights, and token protocol unchanged. The operation $P_c:=\PopContext(c)$ deletes the newest block on channel $c$ and exposes its predecessor. We model the layer by the Transcript-Managed Transducer $\TMTn{k}$: one finite controller, $k$ channels, and per-round actions from stay, push, and pop under a caller-driven status map. Fixed visible windows encode as finite symbols. The pop-free Restricted Transcript-Managed Transducer $\RTMTn{k}$ is the standard append-only layer and, for every fixed $k$, realizes exactly the deterministic finite-state transductions. The same holds for every fixed finite agent population under a monotone protocol that appends, routes, and copies visible blocks. Admitting $\{P_c\}_{c=1}^k$ restores pop. Newest-first, a pop-enabled channel is a stack; compiling to the Hopcroft--Ullman presentation transfers the classical hierarchy: $\DCFL$ for $k=1$ and $\RE$ for every $k\ge2$. Orchestrated one-channel agents match one controller with $k$ channels, so two pop-enabled transcripts---in one agent or two---suffice for universality. Simulation costs and invariance to fixed block size and visible radius are stated. The bounds fix precision, alphabets, blocks, visibility, controller state, and population; growing exact context, hidden-block access, writable stores, and unbounded \textbf{Spawn} add further state.

The propositional abduction problem is a well-known form of non-monotonic reasoning where we are asked to find an explanation of a given manifestation. Recently, there has been an influx of results asking more refined questions about the solution space rather than only individual solutions. For example, we might be interested in finding two solutions that are sufficiently far from each other (diverse solutions) in the solution space. In this paper we consider a related representation question where we ask if a given set of explanations S can represent any other explanation (that is, whether their symmetric difference is smaller than a given k). We first study this problem from a classical complexity perspective and obtain a complete classification. While only a handful of cases are tractable, the increase in complexity compared to classical abduction is often smaller than expected. We then study the parameterized complexity for several parameters and obtain new tractable and hard cases. Interestingly, a full parameterized complexity classification would require resolving the parameterized complexity of the covering radius problem from coding theory. To the best of our knowledge, no useful relationship between coding theory and non-monotonic reasoning has previously been established, but such connections seemingly become important when asking more complex questions about solution spaces.

Proactive service assurance in O-RAN requires predicting per-slice SLA violations before they occur. The prediction model must be auditable by operators and must train across base stations without pooling per-slice KPIs, which are commercially sensitive because slices are leased to individual tenants. Neural additive models (NAMs) offer auditability because each KPI contributes through a visible shape function. However, visibility alone does not guarantee physical validity. On the ColO-RAN testbed dataset, unconstrained NAMs learn effects that contradict wireless physics, for example predicting higher risk when channel quality improves. This failure appears under both local and centralized training, and non-IID federated averaging worsens it. We present Monotone FedNAM, a federated additive model in which KPIs with unambiguous physical direction are represented as monotone splines whose constraints survive FedAvg aggregation by construction, while contestable KPIs remain unconstrained. The model trains and operates as a Non-RT RIC rApp and is compact enough for deployment as a Near-RT RIC xApp. Monotone FedNAM eliminates all monotonicity violations, raises constrained shape consistency from 0.71 to 1.00, generalizes to an unseen scheduling policy, and reduces uplink traffic by 65%, at a cost of 0.04 to 0.07 AUC. These results show that physically constrained federated additive models can support auditable SLA risk inference for multi-tenant O-RAN service assurance

Prior work on human label variation (HLV) in natural language inference (NLI) has often relied on re-annotation resources that select items by disagreement level. An earlier study (arXiv:2607.15870) found that hypotheses containing non-upward monotonicity operators showed lower label agreement in ChaosNLI (Cliff's delta = -0.284), which is restricted to items whose majority label carries exactly three of five votes. We preregistered a replication of this boundary in the unselected populations that ChaosNLI was drawn from: the SNLI and MultiNLI development sets, using the same operator tagger and a four-level ordinal agreement outcome. The registered prediction fails. All seven contrasts return a positive Cliff's delta (non-upward items agree slightly more, not less), the only significant confirmatory contrast has the opposite sign to the registration, and every effect is far below our smallest effect size of interest (0.10). Robustness checks support the measurement: simulated tagger misclassification shrinks the effects rather than manufacturing them, and a manual re-tagging audit reaches four-class agreement of 0.875 on a fresh 200-item sample. We conclude that the earlier negative boundary is plausibly a structure conditional on low-agreement selection rather than a population-level property, and that HLV structure claims built on selected re-annotation resources should state their selection conditional explicitly.

Deep survival models are evaluated almost exclusively by the concordance index (C-index), yet they are commonly trained using likelihood objectives such as the Cox partial likelihood, discrete-time negative log-likelihood, and DeepHit likelihood. This mismatch is usually considered acceptable because the C-index can be recomputed on validation data during training. However, for end-to-end training of high-capacity encoders on small, heavily censored oncology cohorts, frequent C-index evaluation is computationally expensive, making the loss value itself an important signal for monitoring, early stopping, and model selection. We show that likelihood losses are unreliable for this purpose and propose a value-monotone concordance loss. We prove that every strictly proper survival likelihood admits directions where the loss decreases while the C-index remains unchanged, causing the loss value to decouple from ranking performance. We then study a sigmoid concordance loss (SCL), whose value approximates one minus the C-index up to a temperature term, ensuring that lower loss corresponds to higher C-index during optimization. The loss is architecture agnostic and reduces to a convex survival ranking support vector machine for linear models. Across eighteen datasets from four modalities using a unified five-fold cross-validation protocol, SCL achieves discrimination comparable to standard likelihood losses and is the best or within one standard deviation of the best C-index. Unlike likelihood losses, SCL maintains a strong correlation between loss value and C-index during training, with rank correlations of 0.96 to 0.99 compared with -0.03 to 0.53 for likelihood losses. Calibration measured by the integrated Brier score is comparable. SCL provides a value-monotone optimization objective whose value can serve as a reliable surrogate for the C-index during expensive end-to-end training.

Plan evaluators can reward a strategic plan for becoming less explicit. This paper studies that failure in a staged expected-value scorer for LLM-generated venture routes. Proposition 1 gives the score change from deleting an interior transition while retargeting its predecessor and retaining downstream value: Delta_k = (prod_{i<k} p_i)[c_k + (1 - p_k)R_{k+1}]. On a frozen 26-route cohort, all 57 admissible deletions matched the analytic identity and threshold sign, and every route had at least one score-improving deletion. A score-seeking optimizer, allowed to restructure routes but not told the exploit mechanism, found baseline-beating uncovered structures in 21/26 routes. GATE refused score release for 26/26 silenced routes with 0/26 honest suspensions; after refusal, 47/54 next revisions repaired to a covered structure, and strict covered improvement rose from 1/26 to 13/26. An adaptive compiler-aware co-author exposed the registry-provenance boundary: obligation-channel evasions remained 6/6 across all four v1/v1.5 conditions, while delta-indexed cost floors reduced beat-honest routes from 6/6 to 3/6 and fundability-by-silence from 5/6 to 0/6 without establishing semantic completeness. If a plan scores better only because it omits necessary work, the plan did not improve; the evaluation created an omission incentive. PCSC detects and neutralizes post-hoc omission splices over model-mediated typed-state records. In the cooperative setting tested, GATE acts as a deterministic search-shaping constraint, not merely a post-hoc filter. It does not verify the semantic completeness or real-world quality of arbitrary LLM-generated strategies.

This work delivers two key contributions: one to efficient feature selection in reinforcement learning (RL), the other to the theory of non-monotone inclusions. On the RL side, the estimation bias inherent in conventional regularization schemes is addressed by augmenting classical least-squares temporal-difference (LSTD) policy evaluation with the sparsity-inducing, non-convex projected minimax concave (PMC) penalty. Because the PMC penalty is weakly convex, the resulting fixed-point problem is no longer monotone; instead, it falls under a broader class of non-monotone inclusions involving the sum of a monotone Lipschitz operator and a hypomonotone operator. On the theory side, novel convergence conditions are developed for the forward-reflected-backward splitting (FRBS) method applied to this broader class of non-monotone inclusion problems. Under mild conditions, Lyapunov stability and the existence of a limit point of the sequence of FRBS iterates are established; alternatively, under the weak Minty variational inequality assumption, exact convergence is guaranteed. Numerical tests on benchmark datasets show that the proposed FRBS iterates, applied to the non-convexly regularized LSTD problem, substantially outperform state-of-the-art feature-selection methods, especially when many noisy features are present.

Modern AI agent implementations such as frontier coding agents chain multiple tools at runtime that create a security surface that per-tool guardrails are unable to address, as individually permitted tools can violate organizational policies when composed. We propose the Dynamic Security Control Compositor (DSCC), a two-phase approach to compositional security for multi-tool agent chains. In Phase 1, at session checkout, a Most Restrictive Set (MRS) algorithm composes per-tool security policies into a single effective policy with a formal monotonicity invariant that extending a chain can only tighten the result, blocking incompatible combinations before any tool executes. Outputs of any tool call propagate their classification constraints into a session-level taint state, so subsequent invocations must satisfy the most restrictive constraints seen so far. In Phase 2, at runtime, the system tracks the sensitivity of data the agent touches through a monotonic taint state and revokes the session if the accumulated exposure would make a subsequent tool call a policy violation. Together, these phases provide defense in depth, where static composition prevents unsafe chains from starting, and runtime taint tracking catches violations that emerge from the specific data used. We provide a reference implementation on 32 tools governed by 16 NIST SP 800-53 aligned policies and evaluate it under two composition modes. In the default clearance mode, permitted combinations are partitioned into classification-level clusters, blocking 79.2% of policy pairs and 95.5% of triples. The alternative taint mode admits mixed-classification chains within the exfiltration boundary, blocking 42.5% and 60.5% respectively. We discuss the governance implications for organizations deploying multi-tool agents, including the utility-security tradeoff and the changes needed to operationalize chain-aware policies.

Recent work has established a fundamental trilemma between Byzantine robustness, local differential privacy (LDP), and optimization error in distributed learning. We show that this trilemma does not universally extend to generalization error, but instead depends critically on the privacy regime. Specifically, in the high-noise regime (strong privacy), we prove that increasing privacy reduces the generalization error, i.e., there is no tension between robustness and privacy. In the low-noise regime (weaker privacy), however, the tension between robustness and privacy reappears and increasing privacy indeed degrades generalization. Our theory explains this surprising non-monotonic behavior of the generalization error via matching lower and upper bounds on the algorithmic stability of Byzantine-robust distributed learning under LDP constraints. We corroborate and further analyze these theoretical findings with empirical evaluations.

Most existing multitask learning approaches are limited by their reliance on task-specific loss functions tailored to the scale and type of each outcome. When outcomes differ across tasks, these losses are generally not directly comparable, which makes it difficult to formulate a unified objective and may limit information sharing across tasks. We propose a multitask transformation framework in which task-specific responses may differ through unknown monotone transformations. Motivated by high-dimensional biological applications in which the predictor dimension may diverge with the sample size while only a common subset of predictors is informative, we consider shared sparsity across tasks. Under this framework, we estimate the target functions and identify important predictors by optimizing a smoothed rank-based criterion with a group-Lasso penalty, implemented through a multitask deep neural network with a shared first layer. We establish the nonasymptotic excess-risk bounds, and variable-selection consistency for the proposed estimator. Simulation studies show that the proposed method achieves competitive prediction and variable-selection performance compared with competing approaches. Analyses of gene-expression studies with continuous, binary, and mixed outcomes further illustrate that the proposed method improves prediction and identifies biologically meaningful shared predictors.

Last-iterate convergence and generalization guarantees in first-order convex learning hinge on the monotonicity of the update operator. While linear averaging preserves the monotonicity of gradient updates, this property is often violated when gradients are aggregated non-affinely, as in modern pipelines enforcing constraints like adaptivity, privacy, robustness or fairness. Whether it is possible to design non-affine aggregation rules that maintain monotonicity has remained an open question. We answer this question negatively: we prove that the monotonicity of aggregated gradients is preserved if and only if the aggregation rule is positively affine. Consequently, non-affine aggregation prevents steady convergence and substantially degrade algorithmic stability. We quantify these drawbacks and propose a path forward by identifying sufficient conditions under which monotonicity can be restored. Our results provide a unified theoretical framework explaining the disparate failure modes observed in modern learning systems.

Human demonstrations for robot imitation learning often contain mistakes and corrective behaviors, such as imprecise grasps, object misalignment, unstable contact, and repeated attempts. While these segments are commonly treated as noisy or suboptimal data, they provide valuable evidence about when execution deviates from a desirable path and how task feasibility can be restored. However, existing reward and value models often rely on monotonic progress assumptions, which capture coarse task advancement but may overlook local execution errors and corrective behaviors in imperfect demonstrations. In this work, we propose ReTVL (ReTry-Supervised Value Learning), a framework for learning mistake-sensitive value functions from mixed-quality robot demonstrations by leveraging retry events as sparse supervision. ReTVL captures the local degradation-and-recovery structure around mistakes by combining global progress calibration with local pairwise preference learning induced by sparsely annotated retry keypoints. The learned value model is then used to reweight demonstration chunks for downstream behavior cloning, reducing the influence of harmful execution errors while preserving useful corrective behaviors. Experiments on real-robot manipulation tasks show that ReTVL produces more fine-grained value estimates than progress-based baselines and improves imitation learning from imperfect demonstrations.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning. For regression problems, dominant scalar UQ approaches - notably, those based on proper scoring rules - measure uncertainty via pointwise predictive risk. This can lead to counterintuitive results when the target statistic is not the conditional expectation. We propose an alternative framework, in which uncertainty is characterised by the volume of the most probable subset of a distribution's support. QUEST (Quantifying Uncertainty via highest dEnSiTy regions) is a novel approach to UQ based on the concentration of Lebesgue measure at a distribution's peak(s), evaluated at one or more values of a robustness parameter $α$. We establish connections between our measures and classical statistics from information theory and economics. We show that, unlike popular alternatives based on proper scoring rules, QUEST measures of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty satisfy a set of axioms adapted from the UQ literature, including monotonicity under distributional spread and invariance to location shifts. Selective prediction benchmarks confirm that QUEST performs favourably against standard measures such as variance and differential entropy.

Looped Transformers scale latent computation by repeatedly applying shared blocks, but sequential looping increases latency and KV-cache memory with the loop count. Parallel loop Transformers (PLT) alleviate this cost through cross-loop position offsets (CLP) and shared-KV gated sliding-window attention, making loop count a practical design choice. We therefore study PLT loop-count selection through a gain--cost view: an extra loop may refine representations, but CLP also introduces a positional mismatch at each loop boundary. We instantiate this study by training LoopCoder-v2, a family of 7B PLT coders with different loop counts, from scratch on 18T tokens, followed by matched instruction tuning and evaluation. Empirically, the two-loop variant delivers broad gains over the non-looped baseline across code generation, code reasoning, agentic software engineering, and tool-use benchmarks, improving SWE-bench Verified from 43.0 to 64.4 points and Multi-SWE from 14.0 to 31.0 points. In contrast, variants with three or more loops regress, revealing a strongly non-monotonic loop-count effect. Our diagnostics show that loop 2 provides the main productive refinement, while later loops yield diminishing, oscillatory updates and reduced representational diversity. Because the CLP-induced mismatch remains roughly fixed as refinement gains shrink, the offset cost increasingly dominates. This gain--cost trade-off explains PLT's saturation at two loops and provides diagnostics for loop-count selection.

Monotonicity has been a long-running architectural inductive bias for neural networks, motivated by tabular, scientific, and economic settings where outputs are known to respond monotonically to certain inputs. Existing approaches are MLP- or flow-based and lack per-edge functional transparency; the only Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN) variant with monotonicity, MonoKAN, enforces the constraint only on a restricted parameter subset and requires a projection-style training procedure. We close this gap with \textbf{MKAN}, a KAN with hard monotonicity guaranteed for \emph{all} parameter values via exponential reparameterization of B-spline coefficients, positive edge weights, and a monotone base activation. Training reduces to standard unconstrained gradient descent. Our headline theoretical contribution is a \emph{representation-cost} theorem: any $C^K, K >0$ feature extractor inducing a ball-shaped semantic-neighborhood partition admits a monotone realization of the equivalent neighborhood structure at $N' = N^* + k \le 2N^*$, where $k$ is the number of non-monotone coordinates of the original. The bound is architecture-agnostic and gives a principled sizing rule for monotone encoders. Empirically, MKAN is competitive with state-of-the-art monotone NNs on the SMM/ICML-2024 benchmark while being the only method that combines hard unconstrained monotonicity with KAN's per-edge functional transparency; the $2N^*$ prediction is validated in a self-supervised feature-size sweep on four real datasets, and on a controlled monotone-generative dataset MKAN recovers ground-truth factors with substantially higher Spearman alignment than KAN, MLP, and linear baselines.

Policy models often assume that the relationship between a policy instrument and its outcome remains stable across institutional conditions. In adaptive socio-technical systems this assumption may fail: regulatory change can alter incentives, agents can respond strategically, and the mapping from policy variables to aggregate outcomes can change. This paper studies such regime change as a transfer-learning problem in adaptive multi-agent systems. A policy regime is represented as a learning problem induced by an observable input distribution and a target function mapping policy variables to outcomes. We compare a blank-slate learner that searches a flexible hypothesis class in the new regime with a transfer learner whose effective hypothesis class is restricted by structural knowledge from the previous regime. Transfer is beneficial when this restriction preserves the new target function while reducing effective complexity; it is harmful when the restriction excludes the new target and creates misspecification. A stylized emissions-regulation experimental environment and a dynamic ABM robustness experiment support the claim. When the target regime preserves an affine monotone tax-emissions relation, transfer improves empirical small-sample performance. When the target regime introduces a threshold break, the same transferred structure produces negative transfer: held-out error remains high, online prediction generates more mistakes, and repeated online streams show larger cumulative and final-window error under misspecification. The contribution is methodological: previous regulatory experience should be reused when it captures stable structural invariants, but treated cautiously when policy change alters the policy-outcome relationship.

In this note, we introduce a polynomial-time version of the mistake-bounded language generation (MBLG) framework due to Kleinberg, Peale, and Reingold (2026). We observe that the family of parities of variables, and the family of conjunctions of literals, are polynomial-time MBLG. Our main result states that the family of monotone Boolean functions with polynomially-many maxterms is polynomial-time MBLG. This family includes all monotone Boolean functions, computable by polynomial-size decision trees. Our technique can be presented as a new combinatorial game about writing numbers on a board.

This paper presents a method of multivariate scattered data interpolation and approximation that produces optimal Lipschitz-continuous approximation, subject to the desired monotonicity constraints. This method relies on tight upper and lower approximations to the data, and is similar in its spirit to the nearest-neighbour approximation but does not suffer from discontinuities. Local Lipschitz interpolation and Lipschitz smoothing are also presented. This approach falls under the umbrella of instance-based approximation with no training phase, and it is suitable for GPU-based parallelisation. A Python GPU-friendly package LipFit which implements the methods discussed is discussed.

Recent work in defeasible reasoning has seen notions of preferential semantics and entailment in the style of Kraus et al. applied to modal logics. However, work in this field has focussed primarily on satisfiability checking, and monotonic notions of entailment, which may be inferentially weak. One particular modal logic where this has been introduced is propositional standpoint logics, where modalities can express the views of different viewpoints. This has resulted in the formalisation of propositional defeasible standpoint logic (PDSL). In this paper, we propose a means of lifting the class of (non-monotonic) rational entailment relations from traditional KLM-style reasoning to a fragment of PDSL. In order to do so, we extend the expressivity of PDSL via situated standpoint conditionals, allowing us to talk about a defeasible conditional holding in the context of a given standpoint. This allows us to re-characterise the syntax of PDSL in terms of situated conditionals, and shows that a large fragment of PDSL is expressible as a set of situated conditionals. We then focus on characterising non-monotonic entailment in this fragment, defining a method to transport any ranking-based entailment relation from the propositional case into the PDSL case. This is first described in the general case and then considered in the specific cases of rational and lexicographic closures, providing a faithful translation of each inference into PDSL. We also show that entailment-checking in this fragment of PDSL can be done largely using algorithms from the propositional case, while preserving complexity bounds.

Symmetric nonnegative matrix factorization (Symmetric NMF) approximates a matrix as $WW^T$ with nonnegative rectangular factor $W$. It has broad applications in graph clustering and machine learning. In contrast to the NMF, projected gradient methods for the symmetric problem had been associated with slow convergence. To address this, we introduce SNMPBB, the first adaptation of nonmonotone projected Barzilai-Borwein methods to Symmetric NMF, demonstrating that gradient algorithms are significantly more effective than previously understood. We further extend SNMPBB to graph clustering using the graph Laplacian regularization (Graph-SNMPBB) and to large problems with low-rank approximations (LAI-SNMPBB). For all variants we prove global convergence to first-order stationary points and also that Barzilai-Borwein curvature information is preserved with randomized approximations. On synthetic data, SNMPBB achieves 6 times speedup over the alternative SymANLS for similar residuals, with advantages growing at higher ranks. Across six real-world clustering benchmarks, Graph-SNMPBB matches or exceeds SymANLS accuracy. Lastly, LAI-SNMPBB outperforms state-of-the-art LAI-SymPGNCG on 34 SuiteSparse matrices in both runtime and residual quality.

Online advertising platforms rely on machine learning models to predict click-through rates (pCTR) and conversion rates (pCVR) for auction mechanisms. We introduce a novel framework to study the interaction between recommender system model quality, auction format, and autobidder behavior. We formalize when model improvements -- defined via a refinement relation inspired by filtrations in probability theory -- lead to improvements in platform-level Evaluation Criteria Metrics (ECM) such as revenue, welfare, or liquid welfare. Our main contributions are: (1) a formal definition of model improvement based on cluster refinement, and (2) a systematic characterization of ECM monotonicity across different combinations of bidder types (tCPA, max-CPA), auction formats (first-price, second-price, VCG), and budget constraints. We show that first-price auctions with uniform bidding guarantee revenue monotonicity for tCPA bidders without budgets (via Jensen's inequality), while second-price auctions and budget constraints can break this property. We provide full numerical constructions for the non-monotonicity results. Our findings have practical implications for advertising platforms seeking to align model improvements with business outcomes.

When a learner faces a new task with few samples, it must leverage any available side information. In practice, this often comes in the form of model evaluations on related tasks in public benchmarks. A key question then is how to model task relatedness such that it is both realistic and the benchmark evaluations lead to provable gains. Empirically, we observe that weak monotonicity is often approximately satisfied: if a model dominates another on many benchmarks, it also tends to outperform on the new task. We explore the statistical complexity of learning under (approximate) weak monotonicity, leveraging it within two learning paradigms: transfer learning and model selection aggregation. We show that not only can we prune the model class based on monotonicity, but we can also further adapt to the geometry of the available trade-offs by hedging on the frontier.

Anchored fixed point and monotone equation methods, including Halpern iteration, extra anchored gradient, and their relatives, add a vanishing pull toward a reference point to obtain last-iterate guarantees. Existing anchored variants often achieve sharp last-iterate guarantees, but from the update-level perspective the placement of the anchor can be algorithm-specific and conceptually opaque. We show that anchoring admits a single operator-side construction: regularize the operator queried by the base method with a vanishing Tikhonov term, then run the unmodified base method. Applied to the Picard iteration, this recipe reproduces the Halpern iteration; applied to the forward step, extragradient (EG), and past extragradient (PEG, also known as Popov's method), it yields three variants whose anchor placements inherit the base method's query pattern. The forward-step instantiation gives a new residual convergence guarantee, while the EG and PEG instantiations give new regularized variants. The four analyses share a residual recurrence, recovering the $O(1/k)$ Halpern residual-norm convergence rate, giving $O(1/\sqrt{k})$ for the regularized forward step, and giving $O(1/k)$ for the regularized EG and PEG variants in the unconstrained monotone Lipschitz setting.

This paper studies preference-shaped expected improvement criteria for Bayesian multiobjective optimization. We consider two indicator families which are often used for similar algorithmic purposes, but which are geometrically different. The hypervolume indicator is based on a dystopian reference point and measures dominated volume in objective space. The R2 indicator is based on a utopian point and evaluates approximation sets through weighted Tchebycheff scalarization envelopes. The purpose of the paper is to make precise which preference transformations preserve exact computation, Pareto compatibility, and monotonicity properties, and which transformations change the underlying geometry. On the hypervolume side, we revisit canonical EHVI through the Deng representation, formulate product-density weighted EHVI in desirability coordinates, discuss cone-based EHVI as ordinary EHVI after a linear cone transformation, and separate these cases from truncated EHVI, where variance monotonicity may fail. On the R2 side, we prove that exact integral R2 improvement is not, in general, an ordinary objective-space weighted hypervolume. The obstruction is lower-dimensional: Lebesgue-density hypervolume cannot see certain boundary contributions that Tchebycheff scalarizations still detect. We then show that exact integral R2 improvement is exactly a scalarization-space volume, namely the measure of the Tchebycheff shadow between the incumbent scalarization envelope and the reference envelope. This representation yields finite-sum ER2I algorithms for discrete R2, quadrature methods for exact integral R2, and an achievement-space Gaussian surrogate formulation in which ER2I is an integral of scalar Gaussian expected improvements.

Cited RAG evaluation often treats visible sources as a grounding signal, but a real, topically relevant citation can still under-warrant the attached wording. We study this diagnostic failure as citation laundering: a related source is presented as warrant for an over-strong claim. We introduce FORCEBENCH, a contrastive stress test for evidence-force calibration. Each item holds a cited passage fixed and pairs an evidence-calibrated claim with a localized force-raised variant across five operational axes: relation, modality, scope, temporal validity, and numeric specificity. A calibrated evaluator should score the evidence-calibrated claim higher. Headline experiments use a fixed, locality-filtered 198-pair evaluation set. A citation-presence sanity check is uninformative by design; token and entity overlap still violate monotonicity on 32.8--36.4% of pairs. Across four reported model judges, standard generic support prompting is insufficient for this force-calibration stress test (aggregate MVR 47.2%), while explicit warrant-strength prompting lowers MVR to 24.5% but remains imperfect. We release the benchmark, prompts, outputs, and plug-in pipeline so citation evaluators can report monotonicity violation rate and force sensitivity alongside conventional support metrics.

We study efficient differentially private algorithms for estimating monotone statistics, i.e., statistics that are monotone under the addition of new observations. The starting point for our investigation is subsample-and-aggregate: a classical paradigm that partitions the dataset into blocks, estimates the statistic on each block, and then privately aggregates the estimates. While practical and generically applicable, this approach is quite data-hungry. We improve upon this framework for the class of monotone statistics -- compared to subsample-and-aggregate, our algorithms save a factor of $t$ in sample complexity and pay a factor of $e^t$ in running time, where $t>0$ is a tunable parameter. We complement our results with a query-complexity lower bound, showing that our algorithms are essentially optimal for this task. As an application, we obtain improved results for private eigenvalue estimation, private loss estimation, and privately estimating a single parameter of a high-dimensional model, e.g., in linear regression.

Probabilistic smoothing is a standard tool for global optimization, but existing methods rely on Gaussian kernels and specific transforms, often resulting in strong hyperparameter sensitivity and limited robustness. We propose a general smoothing framework that combines flexible symmetric unimodal kernels with monotonic ratio-based transformations. Under mild conditions, we show that the smoothed objective preserves the global maximizer and that all stationary points concentrate near the true optimum for sufficiently large amplification, without requiring a decreasing smoothing schedule. We further provide explicit complexity bounds for stochastic gradient ascent and show that a leave-one-out baseline provably reduces variance. Experiments on high-dimensional benchmarks and black-box adversarial attacks demonstrate improved robustness and competitive performance.

A prevalent assumption in LLM agent deployment holds that more structured harnesses universally improve reliability, and that higher-capability models need proportionally less structural guidance -- together implying a monotone inverse relationship between model capability tier and optimal harness complexity. We test this hypothesis through a controlled 432-run experiment crossing six models across four capability tiers with three harness conditions (light, balanced, strict) on HEAT-24, a 24-task synthetic benchmark with git-based workspace verification. Our results refute the monotone inverse relationship on two fronts. First, for the frontier chat model evaluated (Gemini 2.5 Flash), increased harness verbosity lowers VTSR by 29-38 percentage points -- a harness-complexity paradox. Second, for the frontier reasoning model evaluated (Qwen3.5-122B, extended thinking enabled), strict harness achieves the highest VTSR (91.7%) and the lowest latency, the opposite of the prediction. Within the constrained tier, a 2B model (Gemma4:e2B) matches strong-open-tier stability at 91.7% across all harnesses. Because each tier is represented by a single model in this study, these results should be interpreted as model-specific observations; harness sensitivity appears non-monotone across the models evaluated, and depends critically on model type (chat vs. reasoning). We introduce a six-label failure taxonomy showing that format_violation dominates capable-model failures while wrong_file dominates low-capability failures, and we derive practical tier-aware harness selection guidelines.

Tool-using agents increasingly operate in open-ended deployment environments, where they compose file systems, web APIs, code interpreters, and enterprise services at runtime. This creates a safety gap in tool composition: an agent can satisfy every per-tool permission check and still produce an unsafe end-to-end effect, such as reading a confidential document, summarizing it, and sending the summary to an external endpoint. We call this failure mode permission laundering. ChainCaps addresses it with a runtime rule: every value carries a sink-specific capability budget, and tool composition propagates budgets by intersection. A value can preserve or lose authority as it moves through a tool chain, but it cannot gain new authority through composition. We implement ChainCaps as a transparent MCP proxy that requires no changes to the agent or tool servers. On 82 tasks across five frontier models from three providers, ChainCaps reduces attack success rate from 25-68% to 0-4.8% while preserving 96-100% benign completion. In replay experiments, it also outperforms scalar-IFC and per-function-isolation baselines. Manifest quality is the dominant deployment bottleneck: expert manifests reach 100% attack blocking, while naive manifests fall to 27.3%. Our claims are limited to explicit-flow composition safety under trusted manifests and proxy-visible data movement, a practical gap in deployed tool-using agents today.

We study a nonlinear factor model in which observed responses depend on low-rank latent factors through an unknown monotone link function. This setting is challenging and largely underexplored due to severe nonconvexity and identifiability issues. The link function is assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), enabling flexible nonparametric modeling while preserving identifiability. We formulate the problem as the joint recovery of the low-rank factors, loadings, and the nonlinear link function from possibly incomplete and noisy observations and propose a projected block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm with explicit regularization to address scale and rotational ambiguities. Under mild incoherence of factors and standard sampling conditions, we establish convergence guarantees in both noiseless and noisy regimes, along with sublinear regret bounds for the link-function updates. Our results extend classical linear factor models to a broad nonlinear regime and provide a principled framework for learning nonlinear latent structures. We evaluate the proposed approach using controlled synthetic experiments, indicating promising performance.

Dempster's rule is a fundamental tool for combining belief functions from distinct and reliable sources. However, its intersection-based semantics imposes strong structural restrictions, which limits its flexibility in handling complex source states and diverse information fusion scenarios. To overcome this limitation, we propose a reversible transformation, derived from the isopignistic principle, between belief functions and a possibilistic structure defined on the power set. In this transformation, the relationships among subsets are explicitly characterized by a belief evolution network, which provides a more flexible representation of evidential information beyond the conventional mass function structure. On this basis, we further introduce the triangular norm family to develop a general and adaptive evidential information fusion framework. Unlike fusion methods rooted in Dempster semantics, the proposed framework supports more flexible combination behaviors and exhibits advantages in non-distinct source fusion, conflict management, parametric combination design, and heterogeneous information fusion.

Training deep neural networks at scale can benefit from domain decomposition, where the network is split into subdomains trained in parallel and coupled by a global trust-region mechanism. Building on the Additively Preconditioned Trust-Region Strategy (APTS), we propose a non-monotone variant with a nonlinear additive Schwarz preconditioner that combines parallel subdomain corrections with global coarse-space directions. A windowed acceptance criterion allows controlled objective increases, avoiding needless rejection of effective coarse steps. The resulting non-monotone APTS (NAPTS) preserves accuracy while reducing CPU time by 30% and cutting rejected steps to one third of those in APTS.

Strong equivalence between knowledge bases ensures the possibility of replacing one with the other without affecting reasoning outcomes, in any given context. This makes it a crucial property in nonmonotonic formalisms. In particular, the fields of logic programming and abstract argumentation provide primary examples in which this property has been subject to vast investigations. However, while (classes of) logic programs and abstract argumentation frameworks are known to be semantically equivalent in static settings, this alignment breaks in dynamic contexts due to differing notions of update. As a result, strong equivalence does not always carry over from one formalism to the other. In this paper, we carefully investigate this discrepancy and introduce a new notion of strong equivalence for logic programs. Our approach preserves strong equivalence under translation between certain classes of logic programs and both Dung-style and claim-augmented argumentation frameworks, thus restoring compatibility across these formalisms.

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically focus on a single coverage level and do not ensure consistency across multiple confidence levels. In many real-world applications, such as weather forecasting, macroeconomic prediction, and risk management, different users operate under heterogeneous risk tolerances and require calibrated uncertainty estimates across a range of coverage levels. In such settings, it is desirable to produce prediction sets corresponding to different coverage levels that are nested and valid simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two novel online conformal prediction methods that output \emph{nested prediction sets} across a range of coverage levels, enabling simultaneous uncertainty quantification across the entire risk spectrum. Beyond interpretability, jointly estimating multiple coverage levels is known to improve statistical efficiency in classical quantile regression by enforcing non-crossing constraints and sharing information across quantiles. Our approaches leverage an online optimization perspective with small regret that translates to quantile estimation error control while enforcing nestedness of prediction sets. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets, including applications in forecasting tasks with heterogeneous risk requirements, demonstrate that our method achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency compared to existing online conformal baselines.

Operator learning has been highly successful for continuous mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, such as PDE solution operators. However, many operators of interest-including differential operators-are discontinuous or set-valued, and lie outside classical approximation frameworks. We propose a paradigm shift by formulating approximation via graph convergence (Painlevé-Kuratowski convergence), which is well-suited for closed operators. We show that uniform and $L^p$ approximation are fundamentally inadequate in this setting. Focusing on maximally monotone operators, we prove that any such operator can be approximated in the sense of local graph convergence by continuous encoder-decoder architectures, and further construct structure-preserving approximations that retain maximal monotonicity via resolvent-based parameterizations.

Diffusion models generate samples by iteratively denoising a Gaussian prior, traversing a sequence of noise levels that, in every published sampler, decreases monotonically. Six years of intensive work has refined nearly every aspect of this recipe, including the corruption operator, the training objective, the schedule shape, the architecture, and the ODE solver. Yet the assumption of monotonicity itself has never been systematically tested. Here we ask whether monotonic sampling is load-bearing or merely conventional. We design four families of structured nonmonotonic schedules and apply them to three architecturally distinct generative models, DDPM, EDM, and Flow Matching, across NFE budgets ranging from 10 to 200 function evaluations, plus a 42-cell hyperparameter ablation, on CIFAR-10. Across all 90 tested configurations, no tested nonmonotonic schedule improves on the monotonic baseline. The magnitude of the penalty, however, spans nearly three orders of magnitude: persistent and substantial in DDPM, intermediate in Flow Matching, and indistinguishable from zero in EDM. We show that this variation is not noise but a structural property of each trained denoiser, and we formalize it as the Schedule Sensitivity Coefficient, a cheap, architecture-agnostic diagnostic that provides evidence of non-convergence to the Bayes-optimal denoiser at the critical noise level. Our findings justify the field's tacit reliance on monotonic schedules and supply a new probe of diffusion model quality complementary to sample-quality metrics such as Frechet Inception Distance.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is typically formulated as maximizing entropy subject to matching the distribution of expert trajectories. Classical (dual-ascent) IRL guarantees monotonic performance improvement but requires fully solving an RL problem each iteration to compute dual gradients. More recent adversarial methods avoid this cost at the expense of stability and monotonic dual improvement, by directly optimizing the primal problem and using a discriminator to provide rewards. In this work, we bridge the gap between these approaches by enabling monotonic improvement of the reward function and policy without having to fully solve an RL problem at every iteration. Our key theoretical insight is that a trust-region-optimal policy for a reward function update can be globally optimal for a smaller update in the same direction. This smaller update allows us to explicitly optimize the dual objective while only relying on a local search around the current policy. In doing so, our approach avoids the training instabilities of adversarial methods, offers monotonic performance improvement, and learns a reward function in the traditional sense of IRL--one that can be globally optimized to match expert demonstrations. Our proposed algorithm, Trust Region Inverse Reinforcement Learning (TRIRL), outperforms state-of-the-art imitation learning methods across multiple challenging tasks by a factor of 2.4x in terms of aggregate inter-quartile mean, while recovering reward functions that generalize to system dynamics shifts.

Submodular functions -- functions exhibiting diminishing returns -- are central to machine learning. When the objective is monotone and non-negative, the greedy algorithm achieves a tight $63\%$ approximation. But many practical objectives incorporate costs that make them negative on some inputs, and all existing multiplicative guarantees require non-negativity. Prior work handles negativity through additive bounds for the special class of decomposable functions and non-monotonicity through partial-monotonicity parameters, but these address each difficulty in isolation and neither extends the classical structural theory. We extend \emph{curvature} -- a parameter measuring how far a function deviates from linearity -- to all submodular functions, handling both non-monotonicity and negativity through a single classical concept. A greedy algorithm with pruning achieves a curvature-controlled multiplicative ratio for \emph{any} submodular function, including those taking negative values -- the first such guarantee beyond monotonicity and non-negativity. In the non-monotone regime $1 \le c_g < 2.2$, the bound strictly beats the best known uniform ratio of $0.401$ (for non-negative $f$), and it recovers the classical $(1-e^{-c_g})/c_g$ guarantee for monotone functions. A multilinear-extension variant extends the framework to general combinatorial constraints via multilinear relaxation. Experiments on cost-penalized experimental design, coverage, feature selection, and a curvature sweep on Multi-News passage selection support the theory.

Data valuation methods allocate payments and audit training data's contribution to machine-learning pipelines; however, they often assume passive contributors. In reality, contributors can split datasets across pseudonymous identities, duplicate high-value examples, create near-duplicates, or launder synthetic variants to inflate their share. We formalize this as false-name manipulation in ML data attribution. Our main construction is the quotient semivalue mechanism: compute Shapley-, Banzhaf-, or Beta-style values over evidence-backed attribution clusters instead of raw identities, using a canonical-representative operator to absorb within-cluster duplication. We prove an impossibility: on a fixed monotone data-value game, exact Shapley-fair attribution over reported identities is incompatible with unrestricted false-name-proofness, even on binary-valued instances, and characterize the split-gain of a general semivalue on a unanimity counter-example. The mechanism is exactly false-name-proof under two structural conditions: false-name-neutral within-cluster allocation and quotient-stable manipulations. Under imperfect provenance, when these conditions hold approximately, manipulation gain and fairness loss are bounded by three measurable quantities: escaped-cluster mass, value-estimation error, and clustering distance. We instantiate the mechanisms in DataMarket-Gym, a benchmark for attribution under strategic provider attacks. On synthetic classification tasks, quotient semivalues with example-level evidence reduce manipulation gain on duplicate and near-duplicate Sybil attacks from $1.74$ under baseline Shapley to $0.96$, near the honest level. The cosine-threshold and (false-merge, false-split) rate sweeps trace the corresponding fairness--Sybil frontier.

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where the same exogenous perturbation can induce opposite responses under different contact contexts. We ask what structure still suffices once global monotonicity is dropped. We introduce non-monotone triangular structural causal models (NM-TM-SCM), which retain triangular recursion but replace global monotonicity with mechanism-wise invertibility and context-independent inverse transport. We prove that these conditions are equivalent to exogenous isomorphism and imply complete counterfactual identifiability, and we give a counterexample showing that local invertibility alone is insufficient. We instantiate the theory in CausalInverter, with triangular invertible layers, orientation gates, and transport-stability regularization. On synthetic non-monotonic mechanisms, the structural bias yields systematic counterfactual gains as non-monotonicity increases. On MuJoCo Door, our model achieves perfect event-level counterfactual recovery, lowers continuous angle error relative to a Transformer baseline, and delivers substantially more stable recovery than Transformer and conditional-flow predictors. On MuJoCo Push, where non-monotonicity is weaker, the same low-data predictors remain competitive or better, consistent with a bias-variance boundary. These results identify a broader identifiable regime between globally monotone triangular models and unconstrained black-box world models.

Large language models (LLMs) acquire most of their factual knowledge during the pre-training stage, through next token prediction. Subsequent stages of post-training often introduce new facts outwith the parametric knowledge, giving rise to hallucinations. While it has been demonstrated that supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on new knowledge may exacerbate the problem, the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood. We conduct a controlled fine-tuning experiment, focusing on closed-book QA, and find latent directions that causally contribute to hallucinations. Specifically, we fine-tune Llama 3.1 8B, Gemma 2 9B and Mistral 7B v03 on seven distinct single QA datasets, controlling for the percentage of new knowledge and number of training epochs. By measuring performance on the test set, we validate that incrementally introducing new knowledge increases hallucinations, with the effect being more pronounced with prolonged training. We leverage pre-trained sparse autoencoders (SAEs) to analyze residual stream activations across various checkpoints for each model and propose Monotonic Relationship Feature Identification (MoRFI) for capturing causally relevant latents. MoRFI filters SAE features that respond monotonically to controlled fine-tuning data mixtures of a target property. Our findings show that exposure to unknown facts disrupts the model's ability to retrieve stored knowledge along a set of directions in the residual stream. Our pipeline reliably discovers them across distinct models, recovering knowledge through single-latent interventions.

We study gradient descent for rank-1 matrix factorization through a state-dependent Lyapunov perspective. The central object is a parameterized quadratic certificate $I(δ;\,\cdot)$ whose boundary-inward property induces a monotone state parameter $δ_t$, thereby certifying that the trajectory is confined to a shrinking family of level sets. For certified initializations below the critical step size, this mechanism proves convergence to global minimizers. Above the critical step size, the same monotone-state mechanism instead leads to a balanced terminal regime; for a range of post-critical step sizes, the reduced dynamics exhibit period-2 behavior consistent with edge-of-stability phenomena. We further show that the scalar certificate is not an ad hoc algebraic construction: under structural axioms and a natural state-parameter normalization, it is uniquely determined by the monotonicity mechanism. Numerical experiments suggest that this state-dependent Lyapunov mechanism persists beyond the proved cases, including two-dimensional rank-1 approximation and quartic augmentations of scalar factorization.

In phishing detection, machine learning classifiers act as a first line of defense, but the false positives they produce are triaged by human analysts. The excessive false alarms cause alert fatigue that erodes human oversight. We propose CoGReV, a hybrid framework that augments standard machine learning classifiers with a post-hoc non-monotonic reasoning layer implemented in Answer Set Programming. The layer applies a confidence-gated defeasible rule that revises a phishing prediction toward legitimate only when website metadata is present and the classifier's decision is low-confidence, deferring uncertain predictions to the reasoning layer while leaving out confident decisions to the classifiers. This gating acts as a function-allocation mechanism between the classifier and the reasoning layer. Unlike an ungated rule, which reduces false positives only by discarding genuine detections and degrades phishing recall by about nine percentage points, the proposed gated rule keeps recall within 0.7 percentage points of the no-revision baseline for all classifiers while revising only 0.27 percent of decisions. By lowering false alarms, without sacrificing detection, CoGReV reduces analysts alert fatigue and integrates new domain knowledge into the reasoning layer in $\mathcal{O}(n)$ time.

In response to a concern raised by Horty, this paper develops a two-tiered, preference-based semantic framework for modeling defeasible conditional obligations. The paper extends a Hansson-Lewis style preference semantics for dyadic deontic logic by incorporating a nonmonotonic reasoning mechanism that enables previously derived obligations to be withdrawn when new, potentially conflicting information comes in. The account is bi-preferential: two orderings--ideality and normality--on worlds are employed to address shortcomings in earlier approaches, with a separate ranking method for each. At the nonmonotonic layer, a number of postulates are considered, including antecedent strengthening, inclusion and no-drowning. A connection is established with so-called constrained input/output (I/O) logic--an existing standard for normative reasoning based on a different methodology.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where reliable visual grounding carries operational consequences, yet their behavior under progressively coercive prompt phrasing remains undercharacterized. Existing hallucination benchmarks predominantly rely on neutral prompts and binary detection, leaving open how both the incidence and the intensity of fabrication respond to graded linguistic pressure across structurally distinct task types. We present Ghost-100, a procedurally constructed benchmark of 800 synthetically generated images spanning eight categories across three task families: text-illegibility, time-reading, and object-absence, each designed under a negative-ground-truth principle that guarantees the queried target is absent, illegible, or indeterminate by construction. Every image is paired with five prompts drawn from a structured 5-Level Prompt Intensity Framework, holding the image and task identity fixed while varying only directive force, so that tone is isolated as the sole independent variable. We adopt a dual-track evaluation protocol: a rule-based H-Rate measuring the proportion of responses in which a model crosses from grounded refusal into unsupported positive commitment, and a GPT-4o-mini-judged H-Score on a 1-5 scale characterizing the confidence and specificity of fabrication once it occurs. We additionally release a three-stage automated validation workflow, which retrospectively confirms 717 of 800 images as strictly compliant. Evaluating nine open-weight VLMs, we find that H-Rate and H-Score dissociate substantially across model families, reading-style and presence-detection subsets respond to prompt pressure in qualitatively different ways, and several models exhibit non-monotonic sensitivity peaking at intermediate tone levels: patterns that aggregate metrics obscure.

Monotone Boolean functions are a structurally important class of Boolean functions, but their restricted form imposes strong limitations on achievable nonlinearity. In this paper, we investigate whether evolutionary computation can evolve monotone Boolean functions with high nonlinearity, both in the balanced and imbalanced settings. We consider three solution encodings: the standard truth table representation, a balanced truth table encoding that preserves Hamming weight, and a symbolic tree-based genetic programming representation. To guide the search toward monotone increasing functions, we introduce a non-monotonicity penalty and combine it with fitness functions targeting balancedness and nonlinearity. Experimental results are reported for dimensions from $n=5$ to $n=14$. The results show that evolutionary search can discover monotone Boolean functions with nonlinearities clearly exceeding those of majority functions, and in several cases approaching the best currently known values for monotone functions. At the same time, the experiments reveal substantial differences between encodings: the balanced truth table encoding performs poorly for larger dimensions, while the standard truth table and genetic programming encodings remain competitive, with genetic programming becoming especially relevant in the largest tested dimensions.

Bitcoin transaction fees will become more important as the block subsidy declines, but fee formation is hard to study with blockchain data alone because the relevant queueing environment is unobserved. We develop and estimate a structural model of Bitcoin fee choice that treats the mempool as a market for scarce blockspace. We assemble a novel, high-frequency mempool panel, from a self-run Bitcoin node that records transaction arrivals, exits, block inclusion, fee-bumping events, and congestion snapshots. We characterize the fee market as a Vickery-Clarke-Groves mechanism and derive an equation to estimate fees. In the first-stage we estimate a monotone delay technology linking fee-rate priority and network state to expected confirmation delay. We then estimate how fees respond to that delay technology and to transaction characteristics. We find that congestion is the main determinant of delay; that the marginal value of priority is priced in fees, which is increasing in the gradient of confirmation time reduction per movement up in the fee queue; and that transactor choice of RBF, CPFP, and block conditions have economically important effects on fees.

Large language models (LLMs) with a large number of parameters achieve strong performance but are often prohibitively expensive to deploy. Recent work explores using teams of smaller, more efficient LLMs that collectively match or even outperform a single large model. However, jointly updating multiple agents introduces compounding distribution shifts, making coordination and stability during training difficult. We address this by introducing Sequential Agent Tuning (SAT), a coordinator-free training paradigm. SAT represents the team as a factorized policy and employs block-coordinate updates over agents, enabling scalable, decentralized training without a central controller. Specifically, we develop a sequence-aware, on-policy advantage estimator that conditions on the evolving team policy, coupled with per-agent KL trust regions that isolate occupancy drift. Theoretically, this framework provides two critical guarantees. First, it ensures monotonic improvement, stabilizing the training process. Second, it establishes provable plug-and-play invariance: any agent can be upgraded to a stronger model without retraining the rest of the team, with a formal guarantee that the performance bound improves. Empirically, a team of three 4B agents (12B total) trained with SAT surpasses the much larger Qwen3-32B on AIME24/25 benchmarks by 3.9% on average. We validate our plug-and-play theory by swapping in two 8B agents, which boosts the composite score by 10.4%. We provide code and appendix of proof at https://github.com/Yydc/SAT-AAMAS