Causal Reasoning

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency - where observed variables share no latent confounders - or the pretreatment assumption, which limits covariates to those unaffected by the treatment or outcome. These requirements are often unrealistic in practice, and global learning becomes computationally prohibitive in high-dimensional settings.To address these challenges, we propose a novel local learning method for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation that avoids both the pretreatment and causal sufficiency assumptions. We first characterize a local boundary that contains at least one valid adjustment set whenever one exists for identifying the causal effect, and then develop local identification procedures to efficiently search within this boundary.We prove that the proposed method is sound and complete. Experiments on multiple synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets show that our approach achieves accurate causal effect estimation while substantially improving computational efficiency.

Distributed LLM agent workflows should not be monitored as if they produced a single sequential log. In an asynchronous execution, a decision can only depend on events that are causally visible to the lifeline that makes it: an event that appears earlier in some log may still be unknown locally. We extend the ZipperGen agent-workflow framework with Causal Past Logic (CPL), a small past-time temporal logic for guards in conditionals and while loops. In addition to standard past-time modalities such as previous and since, a guard can inspect the latest causally visible event of another lifeline and selected variables stored there. The formula is a source-level guard: it is evaluated online by the owner lifeline and can influence control flow at runtime. We give a vector-clock monitor with latest-value views and prove that the locally computed monitor value coincides with the denotational semantics of the guard at the current event. Thus runtime verification becomes part of the coordination language itself, rather than a post-hoc check over an execution log.

Objective: The growing availability of large-scale observational clinical datasets and challenges in conducting randomized controlled trials have spurred enthusiasm in using causal machine learning (ML) for causal inference in observational data. We present a roadmap for applying causal ML to observational data. Materials and methods: We outline the importance of assessing validity assumptions within available data and applying causal ML responsibly for clinical experts using causal ML and ML practitioners with limited clinical expertise. Observations: Despite advances in causal ML, its limitations remain largely under-appreciated across disciplines. This gap in shared knowledge may impact the validity of findings. Discussion: Causal assumptions must be satisfied and modeling choices justified. Otherwise, these approaches risk producing biased or misleading results, with consequences for clinical research and patient care. Conclusion: Causal ML can be a powerful tool for generating causal hypotheses. We provide a template to strengthen the rigor and interpretability of causal analyses.

Identifying latent variables and the causal structure involving them is essential across various scientific fields. While many existing works fall under the category of constraint-based methods (with e.g. conditional independence or rank deficiency tests), they may face empirical challenges such as testing-order dependency, error propagation, and choosing an appropriate significance level. These issues can potentially be mitigated by properly designed score-based methods, such as Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) (Chickering, 2002) in the specific setting without latent variables. Yet, formulating score-based methods with latent variables is highly challenging. In this work, we develop score-based methods that are capable of identifying causal structures containing causally-related latent variables with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we show that a properly formulated scoring function can achieve score equivalence and consistency for structure learning of latent variable causal models. We further provide a characterization of the degrees of freedom for the marginal over the observed variables under multiple structural assumptions considered in the literature, and accordingly develop both exact and continuous score-based methods. This offers a unified view of several existing constraint-based methods with different structural assumptions. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Explainable AI (XAI) techniques are increasingly important for the validation and responsible use of modern deep learning models, but are difficult to evaluate due to the lack of good ground-truth to compare against. We propose a framework that serves as a quantifiable metric for the quality of XAI methods, based on continuous input perturbation. Our metric formally considers the sufficiency and necessity of the attributed information to the model's decision-making, and we illustrate a range of cases where it aligns better with human intuitions of explanation quality than do existing metrics. To exploit the properties of this metric, we also propose a novel XAI method, considering the case where we fine-tune a model using a differentiable approximation of the metric as a supervision signal. The result is an adapter module that can be trained on top of any black-box model to output causal explanations of the model's decision process, without degrading model performance. We show that the explanations generated by this method outperform those of competing XAI techniques according to a number of quantifiable metrics.

Interpreting the decisions of deep image classifiers remains challenging, particularly in black-box settings where model internals are inaccessible. We introduce OCCAM, a framework for open-set causal concept explanation and ontology induction in vision models. OCCAM discovers visual concepts in an open-set manner, localizes them via text-guided segmentation, and performs object-level interventions by removing concepts to measure changes in class confidence, estimating each concept's causal contribution. Beyond local explanations, OCCAM aggregates interventional evidence across a dataset to induce a structured concept ontology that captures how classifiers globally organize visual concepts. Reasoning over this ontology reveals consistent dependencies between concepts, exposes latent causal relations, and uncovers systematic model biases. Experiments on Broden and ImageNet-S across multiple classifiers show that OCCAM improves explanation quality in open-set black-box settings while providing richer global insight than per-image attribution methods.

AI agents deployed into SRE workflows currently derive their understanding of environment state from raw observability telemetry at query time, paying a semantic-interpretation tax in tokens, latency, and inferential reliability. We propose Causely, a causal intelligence layer that maintains a structured representation of environment topology, attribute dependencies, and causal relationships that are anchroed to a ontological representation of the managed environment. Causely transforms raw telemetry into a live, queryable model providing the semantic and causal foundation AI agents require to diagnose, evaluate impact, and act safely in production. We evaluate this value proposition through a benchmark study conducted in a controlled setting with injected faults in a 24-microservice OpenTelemetry demo application. Our experiments compare four agent configurations (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, HolmesGPT with Sonnet and Gemini backends). Experiments are run with and without access to Causely under two scenarios: an active incident and a healthy baseline. On the active-fault scenario, causal grounding reduces mean time-to-diagnosis by 63%, mean token consumption by 60%, and mean tool-call count by 78%, compressing the investigation footprint by 4.8$\times$ and lowering direct API cost per run by 57%; root-cause-diagnosis accuracy rises from 75% to 100%.

We automatically generate feedback causal fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) from text by teaching large-language-model agents to break the text into overlapping chunks of text. Convex mixing of these chunk FCMs gives a representative cyclic FCM knowledge graph. The text chunks can have different levels of overlap. The chunk FCMs still mix to form a new FCM causal knowledge graph. The mixing technique scales because it uses light computation with sparse causal chunk matrices. The mixing structure allows an operator-level type of Bayesian inference that produces "de-chunked" or posterior-like FCMs from the mixed FCM. These de-chunked FCMs are useful in their own right and allow further iterations of Bayesian updating. We demonstrate these mixing techniques on the essay text of Allison's "Thucydides Trap" model of conflict between a dominant power such as the United States and a rising power such as China. The FCM dynamical systems predict outcomes as they equilibrate to fixed-point or limit-cycle attractors. Seven out of 8 FCM knowledge graphs predicted a type of war when we stimulated them by turning on and keeping on the concept node that stands for the rising power's ambition and entitlement. Gemini 3.1 LLMs served as the chunking AI agents.

Long-horizon LLM agents rely on persistent memory to support interactions across sessions, yet existing memory systems often retrieve context using semantic similarity or broad history inclusion, treating retrieved memories as uniformly useful. This assumption is fragile because memories may be topically related while remaining irrelevant, stale, or misleading. We propose Causal Memory Intervention (CMI), a causal memory-selection technique that estimates how candidate memories affect the model's answer under controlled interventions, selecting memories that improve task performance while suppressing unstable, irrelevant, or harmful ones. To evaluate this setting, we introduce Causal-LoCoMo, a causally annotated benchmark derived from long conversational data, where each example contains a user request, a structured memory bank, useful memories, irrelevant distractors, and synthetic harmful memories. We compare CMI against vector, graph, reflection, summary, full-history, and no-memory baselines. Results show that CMI achieves a stronger balance between answer quality and robustness to misleading memory, suggesting that reliable long-term memory requires selecting context based on causal usefulness rather than relevance alone. The full framework, benchmark construction code, and experimental pipeline are available at https://github.com/Saksham4796/causal-memory-intervention.

With the rapid progress of multimodal foundation models and predictive pre-training, an important open question is how to equip 3D point clouds with a pre-training paradigm that is better aligned with next-token and next-embedding learning. Existing point-cloud self-supervised methods are largely built on masked reconstruction or explicit geometric generation, and thus remain tied to input recovery rather than predictive dependency modeling. In this paper, we introduce PointNTP, which reformulates point cloud pre-training as a fully causal, decoder-free latent Next-Token Prediction problem. Specifically, each point cloud is first partitioned into local patches and serialized into a structured 3D token sequence according to patch-center geometry. The resulting sequence is then modeled by a causal Transformer under prefix-only conditioning, and trained with a shift-based prediction objective stabilized by stop-gradient targets. This design enables the model to learn structural dependencies directly in latent space, without reconstruction decoders or explicit geometric recovery. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed PointNTP is highly competitive across multiple downstream tasks: it achieves 93.8%(+0.5%), 92.6%(+0.3%), and 89.3%(+1.1%) on OBJ_BG, OBJ_ONLY, and PB_T50_RS of ScanObjectNN, respectively; obtains 85.0%(+0.1%) in Cls.mIoU on ShapeNetPart; and reaches 71.1% mAcc on S3DIS Area 5. Overall, decoder-free causal latent prediction provides a simple, scalable, and potentially modality-agnostic paradigm for point-cloud self-supervised learning, offering a new 3D perspective on foundation-style predictive learning for 3D data.

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate realistic synthetic data but offer no guarantee that their outputs respect the causal mechanisms governing the target domain. We introduce CausalSynth, a framework that decouples causal structure generation from semantic realization, yielding synthetic data that is both causally valid and linguistically rich. The framework operates in three phases. First, a Structural Causal Model (SCM) - a tuple of structural equations defined over a directed acyclic graph (DAG) generates causal skeletons, i.e., variable assignments that satisfy the Global Markov Property of the governing DAG, via ancestral sampling. Second, an LLM acts as a constrained \emph{realizer}, a conditional translator that maps each skeleton to a high-dimensional observation such as a clinical note or a transaction log. Third, an Iterative Consistency Verification module detects structural violations through deterministic extraction and feeds targeted corrections back to the LLM, forming a closed-loop refinement process. We identify the Semantic Backdoor problem the systematic tendency of LLMs to override imposed causal facts with pre-training priors -- and prove that our iterative mechanism reduces the resulting selection bias relative to standard rejection sampling. On three causal benchmarks (ASIA, ALARM, and MIMIC-Struct), CausalSynth preserved conditional independencies with false-positive rates near the nominal $α=0.05$ level and achieved realizability rates above 96% with 70B-parameter LLM backbones. The framework additionally supports principled interventional and counterfactual generation through noise retention and graph mutilation.

Learning causal relations from observational data is challenging because the graph search space grows super-exponentially with the number of variables. Ordering-based methods reduce this space by first identifying the topological ordering, whereas continuous optimization methods explore most likely regions of the space by casting DAG learning as a differentiable objective with an acyclicity constraint. Despite their conceptual appeal, both paradigms face significant scalability limitations in high-dimensional settings, restricting their practical applicability. In this work, we introduce a new formulation for linear causal discovery that tightly integrates these two paradigms to achieve substantial gains in scalability without sacrificing accuracy. Our approach, TriOpt, decomposes the problem into two efficient stages. First, it recovers the topological ordering by exploiting the Sherman-Morrison rank-1 downdate together with the additive structure of linear kernels, enabling fast and scalable ordering estimation. Second, given this ordering, we reformulate structure learning as a convex continuous optimization problem that entirely avoids the need for enforcing costly acyclicity constraints. We theoretically show that, under the true ordering, TriOpt exactly recovers the underlying linear DAG. Empirically, across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets, TriOpt achieves orders-of-magnitude speedups over state-of-the-art linear causal discovery methods in high-dimensional regimes, while maintaining comparable or superior accuracy.

Bi-causal optimal transport (OT) is a natural framework for comparing and coupling stochastic processes under nonanticipative information constraints, with important applications in robust finance, sequential uncertainty quantification, and multistage stochastic optimization. In particular, a learned bi-causal coupling naturally serves as a simulator for generating joint sample paths that respect both prescribed marginal laws and the underlying information flow. Its practical use, however, is limited by the computational difficulty of enforcing bi-causal coupling constraints over path space, especially for continuous distributions and long horizons. We develop a scalable stochastic-optimization framework for computing bi-causal OT couplings under general marginals. Our approach introduces a Kullback--Leibler (KL)-penalized relaxation that replaces hard marginal constraints with tractable divergence penalties while preserving the recursive structure of the problem. We establish dynamic programming principles for both the original and relaxed formulations, prove that the relaxed problem converges to the original bi-causal OT problem as the penalty grows, and derive explicit policy-gradient representations for the relaxed objective. Building on these results, we propose a practical policy-gradient algorithm with unbiased mini-batch estimators, variance reduction, and nonasymptotic regret guarantees. Numerical experiments show that the method accurately captures marginal laws and temporal dependence, and performs well in applications including robust subhedging and time series statistical downscaling. These results provide a scalable computational approach to bi-causal OT and broaden its applicability in settings where nonanticipative information constraints are essential.

We present the first systematic study of faithfulness in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) driving models, analyzing 300 Alpamayo-R1-10B inferences across 100 diverse PhysicalAI-AV scenarios. Our main finding is that output natural-language rationales with trajectories may be significantly unfaithful: (i) overall reasoning fidelity is only 42.5%, with Chain-of-Causation matching scene reality less than half the time; (ii) 94 missed pedestrians in one-third of pedestrian-relevant scenes; (iii) 97.7% trajectory fragility under mild visual perturbations; and (iv) only 48.3% mean reasoning-action consistency, with 53.3% of inferences exhibiting low consistency, including 37.9% of stop-claimed cases where the model continues instead. We formalize faithfulness information-theoretically, define entity and action fidelity with verification criteria, and outline a four-component safety architecture aligned with these results.

Many decision-facing stochastic systems are observed through aggregate distributions rather than scalar trajectories: queue occupancies, mobility shares, public-health mixtures, generation-source shares, ecological compositions, and air-quality severity profiles all live on the probability simplex and evolve over time. We study causal (online) forecasting for these distribution-valued time series and argue that the transition operator itself should be structured around the simplex. We introduce CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport), a successor-local operator that (i) retrieves empirical successors from causal context, (ii) stabilizes them with a persistence anchor, and (iii) applies a bounded local stochastic transport on ordered supports; every stage preserves the simplex by construction. We identify a structural failure mode, latent transition-kernel aliasing, where similar observed distributions evolve differently under different contextual regimes, and prove that any forecaster depending only on an aliased summary incurs an irreducible weighted Jensen-Shannon excess-risk lower bound, while the CAST hypothesis class contains the regime-aware Bayes successor; for ordered supports an additional Pinsker separation holds whenever the transported successor lies outside the no-transport anchor hull. On eleven public and simulated benchmarks spanning ecology, energy, diet, mortality, employment, air quality, severe weather, mobility, and G/G/1, G_t/G/1 queue occupancy, CAST attains the best average rank on both one-step KL (1.27) and autoregressive rollout JSD (1.91), winning 8/11 sections on each metric against a broad statistical, compositional, recurrent, convolutional, and Transformer baseline set, and top-2 on all 11 sections for offline KL. Component ablations and a controlled synthetic aliasing experiment corroborate the theory.

In-context learning (ICL) excels at new tasks from minimal examples, yet we still lack a mechanistic explanation of how few-shot prompts shape a model's function vector (FV)--a causal activation direction that drives task behavior on the ICL query. Across tasks and models, an $n$-shot FV is well-approximated by a linear combination of example-level sub-FVs, suggesting additive and composable contributions from individual demonstrations. Beyond additivity, we show that models contextualize individual examples' representations based on prior examples to adaptively reweight which demonstrations dominate the FV: attention shifts toward examples that are more informative and less ambiguous under the context. Finally, a causal decomposition separates Query-Key routing from Value updates, finding that contextualization's most consistent contributions to FV quality arise from Query-Key alignment--particularly in ambiguous settings--while Value-mediated effects are more heterogeneous. Together, these results unify additive superposition with context-dependent attention reweighting into a mechanistic, testable account of how few-shot prompts implement tasks.

Image degradations can occur during acquisition, processing, and transmission, altering visual appearance and affecting downstream vision tasks. They are studied in several communities, including synthetic corruption benchmarks for robustness evaluation, perceptual image quality assessment, and physically grounded analyses of imaging systems or real camera failures. Although these areas address closely related phenomena, they often use incompatible grouping schemes and backend specific severity definitions, making results difficult to compare across datasets, degradation sources, and tasks. We propose a causally grounded framework for organizing and interpreting image degradations across these settings. Instead of introducing new degradations or redefining existing benchmarks, we provide an interpretive representation and measurement layer that makes implicit assumptions explicit. Each degradation is described along two orthogonal axes: its dominant causal source in the imaging pipeline (environment, sensor/optics, ISP/renderer/codec, or transfer/system), and its resulting perceptual effect. This dual axis abstraction yields a compact taxonomy spanning algorithmic corruptions, perceptual distortions, and physically motivated imaging artifacts. To address inconsistent severity semantics without changing existing implementations, we introduce a lightweight severity measurement layer. For every degradation and each native severity level of a given backend, we quantify degradation strength using full reference image quality metrics: PSNR, SSIM, and LPIPS. This makes severity observable and comparable across sources while preserving native parameterizations. We demonstrate the framework through COCO Degradation, a taxonomy aligned benchmark for evaluating object detector robustness under diverse imaging conditions.

Learning predictive world models from unlabelled video is a foundational challenge in artificial intelligence. While Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) have set new benchmarks in semantic classification, they often remain physics-blind, failing to capture the causal dynamics necessary for downstream reasoning. We hypothesize that this stems from standard patch-based masking strategies, which prioritize visual texture over rare but informative kinematic events. We propose Interaction-Aware JEPA (IA-JEPA), which utilizes a self-supervised motion-centric masking strategy to prioritize physical interactions. By specifically targeting entities engaged in collisions or momentum transfers, we force the architecture to reconstruct latent trajectories rather than static background features. Evaluated on the CLEVRER benchmark, IA-JEPA achieves 14.26% accuracy on causal reasoning tasks, a significant lead over the 3.22% achieved by standard patch-masked baselines. Crucially, we demonstrate that IA-JEPA breaks the "static bias" of standard self-supervision by inducing a higher-entropy, more discriminative latent space (+10% entropy gain) that linearizes physical energy ($R^2=0.43$). We show that this interaction bias generalizes to real-world human actions (Something-Something V2) and zero-shot physical puzzles (PHYRE-Lite). Our results provide a scalable, fully self-supervised path toward building foundational world models that begin to internalize the causal structure of the physical world.

Real-time interactive video generation requires low-latency, streaming, and controllable rollout. Existing autoregressive (AR) diffusion distillation methods have achieved strong results in the chunk-wise 4-step regime by distilling bidirectional base models into few-step AR students, but they remain limited by coarse response granularity and non-negligible sampling latency. In this paper, we study a more aggressive setting: frame-wise autoregression with only 1--2 sampling steps. In this regime, we identify the initialization of a few-step AR student as the key bottleneck: existing strategies are either target-misaligned, incapable of few-step generation, or too costly to scale. We propose \textbf{Causal Forcing++}, a principled and scalable pipeline that uses \emph{causal consistency distillation} (causal CD) for few-step AR initialization. The core idea is that causal CD learns the same AR-conditional flow map as causal ODE distillation, but obtains supervision from a single online teacher ODE step between adjacent timesteps, avoiding the need to precompute and store full PF-ODE trajectories. This makes the initialization both more efficient and easier to optimize. The resulting pipeline, \ours, surpasses the SOTA 4-step chunk-wise Causal Forcing under the \textit{\textbf{frame-wise 2-step setting}} by 0.1 in VBench Total, 0.3 in VBench Quality, and 0.335 in VisionReward, while reducing first-frame latency by 50% and Stage 2 training cost by \sim$$4\times. We further extend the pipeline to action-conditioned world model generation in the spirit of Genie3. Project Page: https://github.com/thu-ml/Causal-Forcing and https://github.com/shengshu-ai/minWM .

The Context-Compliance Regime in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) occurs when retrieved context dominates the final answer even when it conflicts with the model's parametric knowledge. Accuracy alone does not reveal how retrieved context causally shapes answers under such conflict. We introduce Context-Driven Decomposition (CDD), a belief-decomposition probe that operates at inference time and serves as an intervention mechanism for controlled retrieval conflict. Across Epi-Scale stress tests, TruthfulQA misconception injection, and cross-model reruns, CDD exposes three patterns. P1: context compliance is measurable in an upper-bound adversarial setting, where Standard RAG reaches 15.0% accuracy on TruthfulQA misconception injection (N=500). P2: adversarial accuracy gains transfer across model families -- CDD improves accuracy on Gemini-2.5-Flash and on Claude Haiku/Sonnet/Opus -- but rationale-answer causal coupling does not transfer. CDD reaches 64.1% mistake-injection causal sensitivity on Gemini-2.5-Flash, while sensitivities for all three Claude variants fall in the [-3%, +7%] range, suggesting that the Claude-side accuracy gains operate through a mechanism distinct from the explicit conflict-resolution trace. P3: explicit conflict decomposition improves robustness under temporal drift and noisy distractors, with CDD reaching 71.3% on temporal shifts and 69.9% on distractor evidence on the full Epi-Scale adversarial benchmark. These three patterns identify context-compliance as a structural axis along which standard RAG can be probed and intervened on, distinct from retrieval-quality or single-method robustness questions, and motivate releasing Epi-Scale for systematic study across model families and retrieval pipelines.

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple environments (e.g., the way minimum wage affects employment rate is stable across different geographical regions), \textit{only} two auxiliary environments are sufficient to infer the causal graph for arbitrary nonlinear mechanisms. Moreover, we demonstrate that this implies identifiability of the SCM functional mechanisms: as a corollary, we show that \textit{two} auxiliary environments are sufficient to guarantee correct counterfactual inference. We empirically support our theoretical results on synthetic data.

Responsibility allocation -- determining the extent to which agents are accountable for outcomes -- is a fundamental challenge in the design and analysis of multi-agent systems. In this work, we model such systems as concurrent stochastic multi-player games and introduce a notion of retrospective (backward) counterfactual responsibility, which quantifies an agent's accountability for outcomes resulting from a given strategy profile. To allocate responsibility among agents, we utilise the Shapley value and formally show that this method satisfies key desirable properties, including fairness and consistency. Building on this foundation, we propose a formal framework that supports both verification and strategic reasoning in responsibility-aware multi-agent systems. Furthermore, by adopting Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we demonstrate how to compute stable strategy profiles in which agents trade off responsibility against expected reward.

Large language models can extract local causal claims from text, but those claims become more useful when organized as persistent, navigable world models rather than as flat summaries. We introduce PROMETHEUS, a framework that turns retrieved literature, filings, reviews, reports, agent traces, source data, code, simulations, and scientific models into causal atlases: sheaf-like families of local causal predictive-state models over an explicit cover of a research substrate. Each local region contains causal episodes, structured claim tables, predictive tests, support statistics, and provenance; restriction maps compare overlapping regions; gluing diagnostics expose agreement, drift, contradiction, and underdetermination. The resulting Topos World Model is not a single universal graph. It is a research instrument for navigating what a corpus says, where it says it, how strongly it is supported, and where local claims fail to assemble into a coherent global view. Three literature-atlas case studies -- ocean-temperature impacts on marine populations, GLP-1 weight-loss evidence, and resveratrol/red-wine health-benefit claims -- illustrate deep causal research from text with explicit locality, evidence, persistent state, and gluing tension. Four grounded-counterfactual case studies -- a Nature Climate Change microplastics forcing paper, an Indus Valley hydrology paper with VIC-derived figure data and model code, the canonical Sachs protein-signaling study with single-cell perturbation data, and a Nature singing-mouse study with MAPseq projection matrices -- show a stronger mode: when a paper ships source data, simulation outputs, or code, PROMETHEUS can evaluate a counterfactual against that scientific substrate and then rebuild the sheaf world model around the

Autoregressive video generation aims at real-time, open-ended synthesis. Yet, cinematic storytelling is not merely the endless extension of a single scene; it requires progressing through evolving events, viewpoint shifts, and discrete shot boundaries. Existing autoregressive models often struggle in this setting. Trained primarily for short-horizon continuation, they treat long sequences as extended single shots, inevitably suffering from motion stagnation and semantic drift during long rollouts. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalCine, an interactive autoregressive framework that transforms multi-shot video generation into an online directing process. CausalCine generates causally across shot changes, accepts dynamic prompts on the fly, and reuses context without regenerating previous shots. To achieve this, we first train a causal base model on native multi-shot sequences to learn complex shot transitions prior to acceleration. We then propose Content-Aware Memory Routing (CAMR), which dynamically retrieves historical KV entries according to attention-based relevance scores rather than temporal proximity, preserving cross-shot coherence under bounded active memory. Finally, we distill the causal base model into a few-step generator for real-time interactive generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalCine significantly outperforms autoregressive baselines and approaches the capability of bidirectional models while unlocking the streaming interactivity of causal generation. Demo available at https://yihao-meng.github.io/CausalCine/

Instruction-tuned language models exhibit behavioural fairness in high-stakes decisions while retaining biased associations in their internal representations. However, whether these suppressed representations can affect model outputs - and whether such causal potency is symmetric across demographic groups - remains unknown. We investigate the use of open-weight models for mortgage underwriting using matched applications that differ only in racially-associated names and reveal a critical disconnect: models show no output-level bias, yet retain and amplify demographic representations across model layers. Through activation steering and novel cross-layer interventions, we demonstrate that this suppressed information is decision-relevant: when reinjected at critical layers, it produces near-complete decision reversals. Critically, this latent bias is asymmetric - steering interventions affect decisions in one demographic direction, while producing minimal effects in reverse - and susceptible to adversarial prompt engineering and parameter-efficient fine-tuning. These findings demonstrate that behavioural audits focused on outputs are insufficient: fair outputs can mask exploitable internal biases. They also motivate dual-layer testing frameworks combining output evaluation with representational analysis for AI governance in high-stakes decisions.

Learning transferable representations for electroencephalography (EEG) remains challenging because EEG signals are inherently multi-channel and non-stationary. Channels observed at the same time provide coupled measurements of neural activity, while the relevant temporal dynamics vary across contexts. This structure is poorly matched by architectures that apply uniform computation across time or route each channel patch independently. To this end, we propose TRACE, an autoregressive EEG pre-training framework that predicts future EEG patches from causal context while performing temporally adaptive and cross-channel coherent computation. At each temporal step, TRACE derives an expert routing decision from the causal cross-channel history and applies it jointly to all channels at that step. This preserves instantaneous cross-channel coherence while allowing different temporal regimes to activate different computation. Since routing is defined over the available channel set and causal temporal context, TRACE is compatible with heterogeneous pre-training across corpora with different channel counts, montages, sequence lengths, and recording domains. Across eight downstream EEG benchmarks, TRACE is evaluated in both settings: when downstream domains are seen only as unlabeled pre-training data and when downstream datasets are completely unseen during pre-training. It obtains the best results on several benchmarks while remaining competitive on motor imagery and clinical event classification tasks, with ablations supporting the importance of cross-channel temporal routing.

The trustworthiness of AI decision-making systems is increasingly important. A key feature of such systems is the ability to provide recommendations for how an individual may reverse a negative decision, a problem known as algorithmic recourse. Existing approaches treat recourse outcomes as counterfactuals of a fixed unit, ignoring that real-world recourse involves repeated decisions on the same individual under possibly different latent conditions. We develop a causal framework that models recourse as a process over pre- and post-intervention outcomes, allowing for partial stability and resampling of latent variables. We introduce post-recourse stability conditions that enable reasoning about recourse from observational data alone, and develop a copula-based algorithm for inferring the effects of recourse under these conditions. For settings where paired observations of the same individual before and after intervention are available (called recourse data), we develop methods for inferring copula parameters and performing goodness-of-fit testing. When the copula model is rejected, we provide a distribution-free algorithm for learning recourse effects directly from recourse data. We demonstrate the value of the proposed methods on real and semi-synthetic datasets.

Automated systems built on artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly deployed across high-stakes domains, raising critical concerns about fairness and the perpetuation of demographic disparities that exist in the world. In this context, causal inference provides a principled framework for reasoning about fairness, as it links observed disparities to underlying mechanisms and aligns naturally with human intuition and legal notions of discrimination. Prior work on causal fairness primarily focuses on the standard machine learning setting, where a decision-maker constructs a single predictive mechanism $f_{\widehat Y}$ for an outcome variable $Y$, while inheriting the causal mechanisms of all other covariates from the real world. The generative AI setting, however, is markedly more complex: generative models can sample from arbitrary conditionals over any set of variables, implicitly constructing their own beliefs about all causal mechanisms rather than learning a single predictive function. This fundamental difference requires new developments in causal fairness methodology. We formalize the problem of causal fairness in generative AI and unify it with the standard ML setting under a common theoretical framework. We then derive new causal decomposition results that enable granular quantification of fairness impacts along both (a) different causal pathways and (b) the replacement of real-world mechanisms by the generative model's mechanisms. We establish identification conditions and introduce efficient estimators for causal quantities of interest, and demonstrate the value of our methodology by analyzing race and gender bias in large language models across different datasets.

In the data-driven era, large-scale datasets are routinely collected and analyzed using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to inform decisions in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, employment, and criminal justice, raising concerns about the fairness behavior of these systems. Existing works in fair ML cover tasks such as bias detection, fair prediction, and fair decision-making, but largely focus on static settings. At the same time, fairness in temporal contexts, particularly survival/time-to-event (TTE) analysis, remains relatively underexplored, with current approaches to fair survival analysis adopting statistical fairness definitions, which, even with unlimited data, cannot disentangle the causal mechanisms that generate disparities. To address this gap, we develop a causal framework for fairness in TTE analysis, enabling the decomposition of disparities in survival into contributions from direct, indirect, and spurious pathways. This provides a human-understandable explanation of why disparities arise and how they evolve over time. Our non-parametric approach proceeds in four steps: (1) formalizing the necessary assumptions about censoring and lack of confounding using a graphical model; (2) recovering the conditional survival function given covariates; (3) applying the Causal Reduction Theorem to reframe the problem in a form amenable to causal pathway decomposition; (4) estimating the effects efficiently. Finally, our approach is used to analyze the temporal evolution of racial disparities in outcome after admission to an intensive care unit (ICU).

Grey failures in the computing continuum produce ambiguous overlapping symptoms that existing approaches fail to diagnose reliably, either due to a lack of causal awareness or acting under high epistemic uncertainty, risking destructive interventions. This paper presents an uncertainty-aware resilience micro-agent for causal observability (AURORA), a lightweight framework for diagnosing and mitigating grey failures in edge-tier environments. The framework employs parallel micro-agents that integrate the free-energy principle, causal do-calculus, and localized causal state-graphs to support counterfactual root-cause analysis within each fault's Markov blanket. Restricting inference to causally relevant variables reduces computational overhead while preserving diagnostic fidelity. AURORA further introduces a dual-gated execution mechanism that authorizes remediation only when causal confidence is high and predicted epistemic uncertainty is bounded; otherwise, it abstains from local intervention and escalates the diagnostic payload to the fog tier. Our experiments demonstrate that AURORA outperforms baselines, achieving a 0% destructive action rate, while maintaining 62.0% repair accuracy and a 3ms mean time to repair.

Learning a physical model from video data that can comprehend physical laws and predict the future trajectories of objects is a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Prior approaches either leverage various Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) as soft constraints in the form of PINN losses, or integrate physics simulators into neural networks; however, they often rely on strong priors or high-quality geometry reconstruction. In this paper, we propose CausalGS, a framework that learns the causal dynamics of complex dynamic 3D scenes solely from multi-view videos, while dispensing with the reliance on explicit priors. At its core is an inverse physics inference module that decouples the complex dynamics problem from the video into the joint inference of two factors: the initial velocity field representing the scene's kinematics, and the intrinsic material properties governing its dynamics. This inferred physical information is then utilized within a differentiable physics simulator to guide the learning process in a physics-regularized manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalGS surpasses the state-of-the-art on the highly challenging task of long-term future frame extrapolation, while also exhibiting advanced performance in novel view interpolation. Crucially, our work shows that, without any human annotation, the model is able to learn the complex interactions between multiple physical properties and understand the causal relationships driving the scene's dynamic evolution, solely from visual observations.

Neural networks have proved an effective means of learning control policies for autonomous systems, but these learned policies are difficult to understand due to the black-box nature of neural networks. This lack of interpretability makes safety assurance for such autonomous systems challenging. The fields of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) and eXplainable Reinforcement Learning (XRL) aim to interpret the decision making processes of neural networks and autonomous agents, respectively. In particular, work on causal explanations aims to provide "why" and "why not" explanations for why a model made a given decision. However, most of the work on explainability to date utilises a distilled version of the original model. While this distilled policy is interpretable, it necessarily degrades in performance significantly when compared to the original model, and is not guaranteed to be an accurate reflection of the decision making processes in the original model and as such cannot be used to guarantee its safety. Recent work on understanding the geometry of ReLU neural networks shows that a ReLU network corresponds to a piecewise linear function divided into regions defined by an n-dimensional convex polytope. Through this lens, a neural network can be understood as dividing the input space into distinct regions which apply a single linear function for each output neuron. We show that this geometric representation can be used to generate causal explanations for the network's behaviour similar to previous work, but which extracts rules directly from the geometry of Neural Networks with the ReLU activation function, and is therefore an accurate reflection of the network's behaviour.

We propose SVAR-FM (Structural VAR with Flow Matching), a framework for time series causal discovery that treats a physics-based simulator as a mechanical realization of Pearl's do operator. Clamping a variable inside the simulator physically severs confounding paths, producing interventional data by construction. Conditional Flow Matching then learns the nonlinear interventional conditionals. Theoretically, we prove that the full structural VAR becomes identifiable under a coverage condition on the simulator-clampable variables, and derive an end-to-end error bound that decomposes into Monte Carlo, simulator fidelity, and Flow Matching terms. A sign-flip corollary predicts that when simulator accuracy falls below a threshold, the estimated causal effect reverses sign. Empirically, a benchmark across four scientific domains confirms that SVAR-FM recovers the correct causal sign where observational methods produce sign-reversed estimates due to confounding. A case study in ultrafast laser physics verifies the sign-flip prediction by physically varying the accuracy level of a first-principles quantum solver: the low-accuracy setting reverses the causal sign, while the high-accuracy setting recovers the correct direction (R-squared = 0.983, zero bias).

Autonomous language agents increasingly expose traces, memories, plans and constraints, but existing evaluations rarely test whether these state variables are bound to final actions. We introduce causal state binding, an intervention-coupled evaluation framework that measures whether actions change with the event-specific decisive state while remaining invariant to irrelevant cues. The primary readout is a hidden-target finite-action benchmark in which scorer-side intervention targets are assigned before generation and withheld from the model-visible prompt. Across 57,816 scored records in seven corpus-level units, structured-agent conditions exceeded high-randomness controls and targeted component removals on reason, memory, veto and self-continuity responsiveness. Open-weight validation across Qwen2.5 7B, 14B and 32B plus Mistral-7B showed that action priors, no-field prompts and scrambled decisive context did not recover the structured-control signature. In diagnostic finite-action probes, the minimal decisive-field readout recovered the prescribed action pattern whereas surface-only, action-prior-only and scrambled-field controls did not. Across 300 SWE-bench Lite issue records and six API models, adding an oracle-free causal state-binding composite to a full non-CSB baseline increased constraint-clean issue-to-file hit@3 AUC from 0.873 to 0.935. This validation concerns issue-to-file localization, not patch application or SWE-bench issue resolution. These results support a measurement principle for agent evaluation: action control is predicted by event-specific state-action binding, not by output entropy, action-prior matching or rationale format alone.

We present Version 2 of system Cplus2ASP, which implements the definite fragment of action language C+. Its input language is fully compatible with the language of the Causal Calculator Version 2, but the new system is significantly faster thanks to modern answer set solving techniques. The translation implemented in the system is a composition of several recent theoretical results. The system orchestrates a tool chain, consisting of f2lp, clingo, iclingo, and as2transition. Under the incremental execution mode, the system translates a C+ description into the input language of iclingo, exploiting its incremental grounding mechanism. The correctness of this execution is justified by the module theorem extended to programs with nested expressions. In addition, the input language of the system has many useful features, such as external atoms by means of Lua calls and the user interactive mode. The system supports extensible multi-modal translations for other action languages, such as B and BC, as well.

Unobserved confounding prevents standard covariate adjustment from identifying causal response functions in observational studies. Proxy causal learning addresses this problem through bridge equations involving treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies, avoiding direct recovery of the latent confounder. Existing doubly robust proxy estimators combine outcome and treatment bridges, but typically rely on fixed kernels, sieves, or low-dimensional semiparametric models; existing neural proxy methods are more flexible, but are largely single-bridge estimators. We develop a neural doubly robust framework for proxy causal learning with continuous and structured treatments. Our method introduces a neural mean-embedding estimator for the treatment bridge, combines it with a neural outcome bridge, and estimates the doubly robust correction through a final regression stage. The framework covers population, heterogeneous, and conditional dose-response functions, yielding full response-curve estimators rather than binary-treatment effects. The algorithms use two stages for each bridge and history-aware updates of the final linear layers to stabilize stochastic multi-stage training. We prove consistency of the algorithms showing that the doubly robust error is controlled by the final averaging and regression errors together with the smaller of the outcome- and treatment-side weak-norm bridge errors. Across synthetic and image-valued benchmarks, the proposed estimators outperform existing baselines and single-bridge neural estimators, showing the benefit of combining learned outcome and treatment bridges in a doubly robust construction. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/BariscanBozkurt/DRPCL-Neural-Mean-Embedding.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting assumes that generated reasoning reflects a model's internal computation. We show this assumption is wrong in a specific, measurable way: models internally detect their own reasoning errors but outwardly express confidence in them. A linear probe on hidden states predicts trace correctness with 0.95 AUROC -- from the very first reasoning step (0.79) -- while verbalized confidence for wrong traces is 4.55/5, nearly identical to correct ones (4.87/5). A text-surface classifier achieves only 0.59 on the same data, confirming a 0.20-point gap invisible in the generated text. This hidden error awareness holds across three model families (Qwen, Llama, Phi), 1.5B-72B parameters, and RL-trained reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, 0.852 AUROC). The natural question is whether this signal can fix the errors it detects. It cannot. Four interventions -- activation steering, probe-guided best-of-N, self-correction, and activation patching -- all fail; patching destroys output coherence entirely. The signal is diagnostic, not causal: a readout of computation quality, not a lever to redirect it. This delineates a boundary for mechanistic interpretability: error representations during reasoning are fundamentally different from the factual knowledge representations that prior work has successfully edited.

Long-horizon, sparse-reward tasks pose a fundamental challenge for reinforcement learning, since single-step TD learning suffers from bootstrapping error accumulation across successive Bellman updates. Actor-critic methods with action chunking address this by operating over temporally extended actions, which reduce the effective horizon, enable fast value backups, and support temporally consistent exploration. However, existing methods rely on a fixed chunk size and therefore cannot adaptively balance reactivity against temporal consistency. A large fixed chunk size reduces responsiveness to new observations, while a small one produces incoherent motions, forcing task-specific tuning of the chunk size. To address this limitation, we propose Adaptive Chunk Size Actor-Critic (ACSAC). ACSAC leverages a causal Transformer critic to evaluate expected returns for action chunks of different sizes. At each chunk boundary, it adaptively selects the chunk size that maximizes the expected return, supporting flexible, state-dependent chunk sizes without task-specific tuning. We prove that the ACSAC Bellman operator is a contraction whose unique fixed point is the action-value function of the adaptive policy. Experiments on OGBench demonstrate that ACSAC achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon, sparse-reward manipulation tasks across both offline RL and offline-to-online RL settings.

Although Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have achieved strong performance on general video understanding, their susceptibility to textual prior shortcuts during causal discovery has been recognized as a critical deficit. The underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon remain incompletely understood, as existing benchmarks only measure response accuracy without revealing the sources and extent of the deficit. We introduce ProCauEval, a perturbation-based evaluation protocol that shifts from outcome assessment to mechanism diagnosis, probing causal discovery through five controlled configurations that systematically manipulate visual and textual modalities to decompose their respective contributions to model behavior and dissect the failure modes. Evaluating 17 mainstream LMMs, we find that models faithfully perceive video content yet systematically underexploit it during causal reasoning. We further observe that stronger post-training amplifies rather than mitigates textual prior reliance, and that higher baseline performance correlates with greater fragility under perturbation. To address these, we propose Anti-Distillation Policy Optimization (ADPO), a reinforcement learning framework built on negative teacher alignment, which augments GRPO by explicitly pushing the policy away from a prior-only counterfactual teacher induced by visual corruption. Specifically, ADPO maximizes the divergence between the policy distributions conditioned on the original and visually corrupted inputs, thereby forcing the model to ground its reasoning in visual evidence rather than textual shortcuts. Extensive experiments show that ADPO improves visual engagement without sacrificing fundamental comprehension, thus offering a preliminary step toward reliable causal discovery.

Query-separated computation forces a representation to play an operational role: data are encoded before a query is known, and a later decoder can answer only through the intermediate interface. In this regime the representation functions as a message rather than merely as a feature map. We formalize this observation by embedding information causality (IC) into representation learning, obtaining a framework called neural information causality (Neural-IC). The revised formulation separates two logically distinct statements. First, every query-separated architecture induces a random-access communication experiment and obeys the embedding inequality $I_{\mathrm{N\text{-}RAC}}\le I(\vec a:H,B)$. Second, any independently certified physical capacity bound on the interface, such as a hard $m$-bit alphabet, a finite-precision register, or a power-constrained noisy channel, implies $I_{\mathrm{N\text{-}RAC}}\le C_H$. This separation avoids treating capacity as a post hoc definition and makes Neural-IC an operational diagnostic for query leakage, precision leakage, and episode-specific memory. We also provide an exact one-bit classical RAC benchmark, showing explicitly that the relevant quantum enhancement is not total information beyond the bottleneck, but fair query-conditioned access. For CHSH-type correlation layers, nested Neural-RAC protocols multiply correlation biases across depth; requiring stability of a one-bit bottleneck for arbitrary depth selects the Tsirelson threshold. We extend the analysis to asymmetric seed biases, to multi-capacity finite-depth phase diagrams, and to correlated data via a conditional information score. Controlled simulations, including straight-through binary bottlenecks and deliberately leaky ablations, verify that apparent violations are accounted for by broken query separation or undercounted capacity.

A valid tool call is not necessarily a valid intervention. Tool-using language agents are guarded by schema validators, policy filters, provenance checks, state predictors, and self-verification, yet such safeguards do not certify that a state-changing action has an identifiable causal effect. In confounded workflows, the action that looks optimal in observational logs can reduce utility when executed. We introduce CIVeX, a causal intervention verifier that maps proposed actions to structural causal queries over a committed action-state graph, checks identifiability, and returns one of four auditable verdicts: EXECUTE, REJECT, EXPERIMENT, or ABSTAIN. Execution requires an assumption-scoped causal certificate carrying graph commitments, an identification argument, a one-sided lower confidence bound (LCB), provenance, and risk limits. On Causal-ToolBench (1,890 instances, 7 seeds), CIVeX yields zero observed false executions across moderate and adversarial confounding. Under adversarial confounding it reaches 84.9% accuracy and 81.1% of oracle utility (+2.23 vs +2.76) and is the only non-oracle method whose constrained utility under a zero-false-execution constraint exceeds the AlwaysAbstain floor. On IHDP and ZOZO Open Bandit (real production logs with uniform-random ground truth), CIVeX matches Oracle correct-execution within 0.1pp and cuts per-execute false-execution by >=50x over naive baselines. A chain-of-thought LLM verifier (Claude Opus, Sonnet) cuts false-execution by an order of magnitude over a terse baseline, yet under adversarial confounding Opus's utility falls to 74% of CIVeX's. Intervention identifiability, not action validity, is the missing primitive for reliable tool use.

Despite surpassing human performance across mathematics, coding, and other knowledge-intensive tasks, large language models (LLMs) continue to struggle with causal reasoning. A core obstacle is the target data itself: causal systems are complex and often expressed in non-executable forms, while ground-truth answers to causal queries are inherently scarce. We introduce CauSim, a framework that turns causal reasoning from a scarce-label problem into a scalable supervised one. CauSim constructs increasingly complex causal simulators: executable structural causal models (SCMs), incrementally built by LLMs, that scale to globally complex systems while maintaining verifiable answers to causal queries. CauSim operates across representations by formalizing non-executable causal knowledge into code, enabling data augmentation, and translating executable SCMs into natural language, enabling supervision in previously difficult-to-supervise representations. We structure our research into two parts: (1) how to construct increasingly complex causal simulators, and (2) a systematic study of what CauSim enables, demonstrating generalization across representations, consistent gains from curriculum scaling and data volume, LLM self-improvement through self-generated simulators, and data augmentation via formalization of existing domain knowledge.

We establish, from the point of view of Explainable AI (XAI), connections between Consistency-Based Diagnosis (CBD), on one side, and Actual Causality and Causal Responsibility, on the other. CBD has received little attention from the XAI community. Connections between these two areas could have a fruitful impact on XAI and Explainable Data Management.

LLMs are increasingly used to explain personal sensing data, translating traces of activity and mood into natural-language accounts of why an anomalous day may have occurred. However, such explanations can sound coherent and personally meaningful even when the underlying evidence is sparse or missing. We introduce epistemic overreach (EO) as a measure for cases where a generated explanation implies more than the available sensing evidence can justify. To audit how often and in what forms EO occurs, we obtained anomalous-day scenarios from three longitudinal sensing datasets of college students: StudentLife, GLOBEM, and CollegeExperience. Across activity, sleep, and affect anomalies, we generated 14,922 explanations using three LLM families -- Llama, Qwen, and GPT -- under two prompting conditions: one minimally constrained prompt and another prompt explicitly instructing models to bound claims to the data. For each scenario, we varied the amount of behavioral evidence available to the model to examine whether more evidence reduces EO. We evaluated each explanation using a structured rubric, decomposing EO into the dimensions of unsupported causal attribution, unacknowledged data gaps, overconfident language, temporal inconsistency, and diagnostic inference. We find that LLMs routinely attribute anomalous days to causes without sufficient support from the data, and that this pattern replicates across datasets, anomaly types, and model families. Further, providing richer context does not reliably reduce EO; bounded prompting helps but does not eliminate it. These findings suggest that evidential grounding should be a first-order evaluation criterion for LLM-generated personal sensing explanations, alongside fluency and plausibility. We argue that personal sensing explanations require evidential discipline: systems must distinguish what is observed, what is inferred, and what remains unknown.

Mechanistic interpretability papers increasingly use causal vocabulary: circuits, mediators, causal abstraction, monosemanticity. Such claims require explicit identification assumptions. A purposive audit of 10 papers across four methodological strands finds no dedicated identification-assumptions section and a recurring pattern: validation metrics such as faithfulness, completeness, monosemanticity, alignment, or ablation effects are reported as causal support without stating the assumptions that make them identifying. A two-human-coder audit on $n=30$ reproduces the direction of the main finding: dedicated identification sections are absent, and validation-metric substitution is common, though exact Dim B/D counts are coding-rule sensitive. The paper proposes a disclosure norm: state whether the claim is causal, name the identification strategy, enumerate assumptions, stress at least one, and explain how conclusions shift if assumptions fail. Validation is not identification.

We study planning site formation in language models -- where internal representations of structurally-constrained future tokens form during the forward pass, and whether they causally drive generation. Using rhyming-couplet completion as a clean test of forward-looking constraint, we apply two lightweight methods (linear probing and activation patching) across Qwen3, Gemma-3, and Llama-3 at more than ten scales. Probing shows that future-rhyme information is linearly decodable at the line boundary, with signal that strengthens with scale in all three families. Activation patching reveals that only Gemma-3-27B causally relies on this encoding, exhibiting a handoff in which the causal driver migrates from the rhyme word to the line boundary around layer 30. Every other model we test conditions on the rhyme word throughout generation, with near-zero causal effect at the line boundary despite strong probe signal. We localize the Gemma-3-27B handoff to five attention heads through two-stage path patching that recover ~90% of the rhyme-routing capacity at the newline.

Causal probing methods aim to test and control how internal representations influence the behavior of generative models. In causal probing, an intervention modifies hidden states so that a property takes on a different value. Most existing approaches define such interventions by training an auxiliary probe classifier, which ties the method to a specific task or model and risks misalignment with the model's predictive geometry. We propose Hidden-state Driven Margin Intervention (HDMI), a probe-free, gradient-based technique that directly steers hidden states using the model's native output. HDMI applies a margin objective that increases the probability of a target continuation while decreasing that of the source, without relying on probe classifiers. We further introduce a lookahead variant (LA-HDMI) for text editing that backpropagates through the softmax embeddings, modifying the current hidden state so that the likelihood of user-specified tokens increases in next token generations while preserving fluency. To evaluate interventions, we measure completeness (whether the targeted property changes as intended) and selectivity (whether unrelated properties are preserved), and report their harmonic mean as an overall measure of reliability. HDMI consistently achieves higher reliability than prior methods on the LGD agreement corpus and the CausalGym benchmark, across Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct, and Pythia-70M.

Recent methods for improving LLM mathematical reasoning, whether through MCTS-based test-time search or causal graph-guided knowledge injection, cannot identify which concepts causally contribute to a correct answer, as the observed association may be spurious, driven by confounders such as problem difficulty. We propose CIKA (Causal Intervention for Knowledge Activation), a framework that uses the LLM itself as an interventional simulator: a prompt sets the concept state to ``mastered'' and the correctness change estimates the causal effect. We formalize this quantity as an Interventional Capability Probe (ICP), which diagnoses whether the LLM can use a given concept -- distinct from merely possessing knowledge. Because the intervention exogenously sets the concept state independently of problem difficulty, ICP separates confounding that observational methods cannot. On 67 screened problems, the ICP of the top-ranked concept (+0.219) is significantly larger than that of the negative control (+0.039; paired $t$-test, $p < 10^{-6}$, Cohen's $d = 0.86$), confirming that the probe discriminates causally relevant concepts from irrelevant ones. Analysis of 601 Omni-MATH problems further shows that solved problems have 6.1$\times$ higher ATE than unsolved ones (0.338 vs. 0.055), confirming that ICP is predictive of problem-solving success. With a 7B-parameter LLM whose weights are entirely frozen, CIKA achieves 69.7% on the contamination-free Omni-MATH-Rule benchmark and 64.0% overall, compared to 60.5% for o1-mini, and 97.2% on GSM8K, 46--50% on AIME 2024--2026, and 46.2% on MathArena. The Causal Knowledge Activation component contributes 33.8% of correct answers on problems where the base model alone fails, demonstrating that the LLM already possessed but had not activated the requisite knowledge.

Transformer blocks typically combine multi-head attention (MHA) for token mixing with gated MLPs for token-wise feature transformation, yet many choices in their parameterization remain largely empirical. We introduce Causal Energy Minimization (CEM), a framework that recasts Transformer layers as optimization steps on conditional energy functions while explicitly accounting for layer parameterization. Extending prior energy-based interpretations of attention, CEM shows that weight-tied MHA can be derived as a gradient update on an interaction energy, and that a gated MLP with shared up/down projections can be viewed through an element-wise energy. This perspective identifies a design space for Transformer layers that includes within-layer weight sharing, diagonal-plus-low-rank interactions, lightweight preconditioners, and recursive updates. We evaluate CEM-derived layers in language-modeling experiments at the moderate hundred-million-parameter scale. Despite their constrained parameterizations, these layers train stably and can match corresponding Transformer baselines. Overall, our results suggest that CEM provides a useful lens for understanding Transformer layer parameterization, connecting Transformer architectures to energy-based models and motivating further exploration of energy-guided layer designs.

Individual treatment effects are not point-identified from data. The Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) circumvents this limitation by characterizing individual-level causality through intersection bounds derived from combined experimental and observational data. In finite samples, however, standard plug-in estimators systematically fail: they violate structural probability constraints and suffer from extremum bias induced by max-min operators, yielding spuriously narrow intervals. We propose a neural framework for finite-sample PNS estimation that resolves both pathologies. We introduce an anchored neural architecture that guarantees structural constraint satisfaction by construction. To correct extremum bias, we employ precision-corrected intersection-bound inference, leveraging Epistemic Neural Networks for scalable, high-dimensional uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations confirm that this approach maintains nominal coverage and exact constraint validity in high-dimensional regimes where standard estimators systematically undercover.

Online reinforcement learning (RL) relies on the Markov property for guaranteed performance, but real-world applications often lack well-defined states given raw observed variables. While causal RL has attracted growing interest, existing work typically assumes Markovian states are provided and focuses on using causality to accelerate learning, leaving a fundamental gap: \emph{given a longitudinal causal graph over observed variables, how does one construct MDP states that provably satisfy the Markov property?} We address this by providing a procedure that constructs a provably minimal state representation. In deep RL, we observe that the minimal representation alone empirically fails to improve performance, indicating that neural networks cannot directly exploit Markovian minimality. To address this, we propose \textbf{MOSE} (Multi-Order State Exposure), which feeds multi-order historical state constructions into the same $Q$-function. MOSE consistently outperforms both the minimal state construction and single-window policies on common benchmarks and synthetic datasets. Including the minimal representation alongside MOSE can further improve performance. Our results establish a core principle for causal deep RL: minimal sufficiency is not enough, and \emph{controlled redundancy} is necessary to unlock the benefit of causal state information.

In model-based learning, the agent learns behaviors by simulating trajectories based on world model predictions. Standard world models typically learn a stationary transition function that maps states and actions to next states, when an action and an outcome frequently co-occur in training data, the model tends to internalize this correlation as a general causal rule while ignoring action preconditions. In interactive environments, however, agent actions can reshape the future affordance space. At each timestep, an action may becomes executable only after its prerequisites are met, or non-executable when they are destroyed. We term such events structure-changing events (SC events). As a result, a conventional world model often fails to determine whether a given action is executable in the current state, especially in multi-step predictions. Each imagined step is conditioned on an incorrect affordance state, and therefore the prediction error compounds over the rollout horizon. In this paper, we propose AGWM (Affordance-Grounded World Model), which learns an abstract affordance structure represented as a DAG of prerequisite dependencies to explicitly track the dynamic executability of actions. Experiments on game-based simulated environments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by achieving lower multi-step prediction error, better generalization to novel configurations, and improved interpretability.

Concept-based explanations offer a promising approach for explaining the predictions of deep neural networks in terms of high-level, human-understandable concepts. However, existing methods either do not establish a causal connection between the concepts and model predictions or are limited in expressivity and only able to infer causal explanations involving single concepts. At the same time, the parallel line of work on formal abductive and contrastive explanations computes the minimal set of input features causally relevant for model outcomes but only considers low-level features such as pixels. Merging these two threads, in this work, we propose the notion of concept-based abductive and contrastive explanations that capture the minimal sets of high-level concepts causally relevant for model outcomes. We then present a family of algorithms that enumerate all minimal explanations while using concept erasure procedures to establish causal relationships. By appropriately aggregating such explanations, we are not only able to understand model predictions on individual images but also on collections of images where the model exhibits a user-specified, common behavior. We evaluate our approach on multiple models, datasets, and behaviors, and demonstrate its effectiveness in computing helpful, user-friendly explanations.

Training causal transformers at extreme sequence lengths is bottlenecked by the quadratic time and memory of scaled dot-product attention (SDPA). In this work, we propose Lighthouse Attention, a training-only symmetrical selection-based hierarchical attention algorithm that wraps around ordinary SDPA and can be easily removed towards the end of the training. Our hierarchical selection is also gradient-free, which exempts us from dealing with a complicated and potentially inefficient backward pass kernel. Our contribution is three-fold: (i) A subquadratic hierarchical pre- and post-processing step that does adaptive compression and decompression of the sequence. (ii) A symmetrical compression strategy that pools queries, keys and values at the same time, while preserving left-to-right causality, which greatly improves parallelism. (iii) A two stage training approach which we pre-train for the majority of the time with Lighthouse Attention and recover a full attention model at the end with a short training. We run preliminary small scale LLM pre-training experiments that show the effectiveness of our method compared to full attention training with all other settings matched, where we achieve a faster total training time and lower final loss after the recovery phase. Full code is available at: https://github.com/ighoshsubho/lighthouse-attention

Random directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) based on imposing an order on Erdős-Rényi and scale free random graphs are widely used for evaluating causal discovery algorithms. We show that in such DAGs, the set of nodes reachable via open paths, termed relatives, increases monotonically along the causal order. We assess the prevalence of this pattern numerically, and demonstrate that it can be exploited for causal order recovery via sorting by the estimated number of relatives. We note that many simulations in the literature feature settings where this yields an excellent proxy for the causal order, and show that a strict increase of relatives along the causal order leads to a singular Markov equivalence class. We propose sampling time-series DAGs as a possible alternative and discuss implications for causal discovery algorithms and their evaluation on synthetic data.

In routine care, individuals identified a priori as high-risk are usually tested for conditions more frequently. Protected attributes, such as sex or ethnicity may also determine testing frequency. Such heterogeneous detection rates across a population induce label error. This causes systematic model error for specific groups and biases performance metrics during validation. This paper proposes a method to correct for such bias in prediction models due to differential diagnostic delay. We use a causal inference framework to define our target estimand: an individual's diagnosis probability in a counterfactual scenario where their diagnosis rate matches that of a reference group. We model the longitudinal process as a hidden Markov model, in which confirmatory test results are emissions from a latent progressive disease stage. We validate our approach in simulated data and apply it to a case study of chronic kidney disease prediction using electronic health records. In simulations, our method reduces prediction bias and improves calibration-in-the-large, correcting the Observed:Expected ratio in the underdiagnosed group from 1.34 (standard deviation: 0.09) in a model developed without any correction for underdiagnosis bias to 1.02 (0.09). Violations of assumptions in the simulation affected the estimation of model parameters, but the proposed approach nonetheless remained better calibrated than the standard model. In the clinical case study, we identify diabetes as the main driver of observability, with an odds ratio of 10.36 (95% confidence interval, 9.80 - 11.02) in 6-month urine albumin-creatinine ratio testing rate. Using our approach to predict the counterfactual diagnostic rate in patients without diabetes, we improved the Observed:Expected ratio of a developed clinical prediction model from 1.55 (1.51 - 1.59) to 1.01 (0.98 - 1.04).

Artificial-intelligence systems are becoming ubiquitous in society, yet their predictions typically inherit biases with respect to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. Classical fairness notions, most notably Statistical Parity (SP), demand that predictions be independent of the protected attributes, but are overly restrictive when these attributes influence mediating variables that are considered business necessities. Recent causal formulations relax SP by distinguishing allowed from not-allowed causal paths and by complementing SP with Predictive Parity (PP), requiring the predictor to replicate the legitimate influence of business-necessities. Existing path-based definitions are mainly practical when applied to categorical attributes. This paper introduces a new framework for fairness in structural causal models that is tailored to continuous protected attributes. We formalize SP and PP through path-specific partial derivatives, establish conditions under which these criteria coincide with prior causal definitions, and characterize when a fair predictor, one that satisfies SP along not-allowed paths while achieving PP along allowed paths, exists. Building on this theory, we propose a fair tuning algorithm that either constructs such a predictor or, when not possible, allows for a trade-off between SP and PP. We present experiments on simulated and real data to evaluate our proposal, compare it with previously proposed methods, and show that it performs better when PP is considered.

Language models often generate reasoning before giving a final answer, but the visible answer does not reveal when the model's answer preference became stable. We study this question through a narrow computable object: \emph{finite-answer preference stabilization}. For a model state and specified answer verbalizers, we project the model's own continuation probabilities onto a finite answer set; in binary tasks this yields an exact log-odds code, $δ(ξ)=S_θ(\mathrm{yes}\midξ)-S_θ(\mathrm{no}\midξ)$. This target defines parser-based answer onset, retrospective stabilization time, and lead without relying on greedy rollouts or learned probes. In controlled delayed-verdict tasks with Qwen3-4B-Instruct, the contextual finite-answer projection stabilizes before the answer is parseable, with 17--31 token mean lead in the main templates and positive, shorter lead in a parser-clean replication. The signal tracks the model's eventual output rather than truth, is linearly recoverable from compact hidden summaries, is partly separable from cursor progress, and transfers as shared information without a single invariant coordinate. Diagnostics separate the measurement from online stopping, verbalizer-free belief, and causal answer control; exact steering shows local sensitivity of $δ$ but not reliable generation control.

Despite the remarkable success of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) across diverse tasks, the internal mechanisms governing how they encode and ground distinct visual concepts remain poorly understood. To unravel these mechanisms, we propose a causal framework based on activation steering to actively probe and manipulate internal visual representations. Through systematic intervention across four visual concept categories, our results reveal a divergence in concept encoding: entity knowledge is distinctively localized, whereas abstract concepts are globally distributed across the network. Critically, this divergence uncovers a mechanistic driver of scaling laws: increasing model depth is indispensable for encoding distributed and complex abstract concepts, whereas entities maintain a consistently high degree of localization. Furthermore, reverse steering uncovers that blocking explicit output triggers a surge in latent activations, exposing a compensatory mechanism between perception and generation. Finally, by extending our analysis to visual reasoning, we expose a disconnect between perception and reasoning: although MLLMs successfully recognize geometric relations, they treat them merely as static visual features, failing to trigger the procedural execution necessary for solving problems.

Despite the growing availability of large datasets, causal structure learning remains computationally prohibitive at scale. We revisit sparsest-permutation learning for linear structural equation models and show that exact Cholesky factorization is unnecessary for structure recovery. This observation motivates a support-level relaxation that searches for sparse triangular factors over a precision-support screening graph. The relaxed formulation can be efficiently evaluated via masked zero-fill incomplete Cholesky factorization, enabling scalable comparison of candidate orderings. At the population level, we establish soundness for Markov equivalence class (MEC) recovery under no-cancellation and sparsest Markov representation assumptions, as well as robustness to ordering misspecification. Motivated by these guarantees, we introduce SCOPE, a sparse-Cholesky pipeline that provides a scalable implementation of the relaxed formulation. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that SCOPE matches the MEC recovery accuracy of substantially slower baselines, while achieving significantly reduced runtime and scaling to 10k variables.