Ego-Trajectory Prediction
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10 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.
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Neural trajectory predictors can reach low prediction error while violating dynamics, actuator limits, or state constraints, especially when controls are unobserved and dynamics are partially specified. We introduce the Markovian Dynamics Enforcer (MaDE), a time-invariant post-hoc operator mapping state-transition proposals onto a learned feasible dynamics manifold, trained on feasible states without ground-truth controls. For each transition it infers a control and recomputes the state through a completion model of known physics plus a learned residual. It then corrects that control by gradient-based inequality reduction, so inequality satisfaction is best-effort within an iteration budget. Since every correction iterate re-enters the completion model, the returned state is dynamically consistent by construction relative to that model and the supplied previous-state anchor. MaDE drives dynamics residuals to essentially zero on fully specified simulated systems, and on an underspecified system leaves a smaller true-dynamics residual than the baselines. Designed to attach to arbitrary predictors, the frozen operator is evaluated downstream of recurrent, structured state-space, and transformer predictors. On recorded vehicle trajectories the one-step residual against a kinematic bicycle model is 0.0071 to 0.0072 for MaDE and 0.1703 to 0.1714 for raw predictors. MaDE raises average displacement error by a factor of 1.57 to 1.83.
Socialality Anchors: Towards Group-bounded Trajectory Prediction
Trajectory prediction is a key component for understanding human behavior patterns in dynamic scenes. Researchers have devoted substantial efforts to modeling social interactions, especially group-wise interactions, since group membership often reflects shared intention, coordinated motion, and stable mutual adaptation, thus providing a persistent and semantically meaningful social prior for forecasting. However, existing group modeling methods may rely on a fixed threshold and infer groups mainly from agents' relative positions within the observation window, overlooking the fact that grouping rules should be agent-specific, temporally coherent, and context-adaptive across diverse personalities, culturalities, and evolving interaction contexts. Inspired by human social perception that alternates between interpersonal distance in boundary-sensitive situations and relative speed consistency in dynamic interactions, we propose Socialality, a human-inspired trajectory prediction framework with interpretable Socialality anchors and an extended grouping window for stable, context-aware grouping inference. Concretely, Socialality introduces a duo-scalar-controlled grouping kernel Socialality that jointly leverages historical observations and short-term future trajectory previews to learn agent-specific grouping rules, and employs a group-wise perception mechanism to model in-group and out-of-group interactions in an intuitive and explainable manner. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments on standard benchmarks to demonstrate the performance gains of Socialality, and provide qualitative analyses and statistical studies of anchor distributions to verify the interpretability and stability of the proposed Socialality anchors.
AD-E2E-JEPA: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture For End-to-End Autonomous Driving
Autonomous driving requires \textit{world models} that can understand the physical world, reason and plan, and operate safely. In this paper, we first systematically evaluate existing action-conditioned joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) world models, including LeWM, DINO-WM, and JEPA-WM for end-to-end autonomous driving (E2EAD). To isolate world-model quality from policy learning, we employ a goal-conditioned zero-shot planning setting that evaluates these models using ground-truth future observations as goals, without training any driving policy. We find that existing JEPA-based world models are either accurate for driving but computationally expensive, or computationally efficient but insufficient for planning. To address this trade-off, we propose \textbf{AD-E2E-JEPA}, which introduces a SIGReg-regularized learnable projector applied to projected patch embeddings. The projector reduces the number of planning patches by and the embedding dimension by , achieving a inference speedup while retaining planning performance, with a 0.8-second runtime for an 8-frame rollout over 256 candidate trajectories. \textit{Without} training any driving policy, the world model itself reaches the goals located 20 meters away on average within the displacement of respectively 4.0/2.8 meters, using world-model rollouts over trajectory vocabularies of respectively 256/8,192 candidates. On the NAVSIMv2 benchmark, it achieves 67.3/72.9 EPDMS with multiplicative safety metrics and 84.1/86.5 EPDMS without them in goal-conditioned zero-shot planning. Experiments further show that the self-supervised pretrained projector improves downstream imitation learning performance from 80.2 to 85.4 EPDMS. The source code is available at https://github.com/HaoranZhuExplorer/AD-E2E-JEPA
ForeDrive: Foresight-Guided End-to-End Autonomous Driving with a Planning-Relevant Latent World Model
Existing latent world models are typically optimized for future predictability, yet the resulting representations are not necessarily useful for planning in autonomous driving. Predictions are commonly used for pretraining or auxiliary supervision rather than as direct conditioning signals for trajectory generation. We propose ForeDrive, which learns a planning-relevant latent representation and couples it asymmetrically to a Diffusion Transformer (DiT) planner. The planner consumes multi-horizon latent future representations learned with a JEPA-style world model; planning gradients update the shared online encoder, while stop-gradient routing trains the latent predictor with forecasting losses only. Because predicted futures have varying reliability across horizons and BEV trajectories are misaligned with image tokens, we use gated visual fusion, future-status injection, and Trajectory-Adaptive Bias (TAB) to inject future latents as guidance without overriding the current observation. Trained with pure imitation learning and using only the current front-view image as visual input at inference, ForeDrive attains 89.9 PDMS on NAVSIM v1 and 90.0 one-stage EPDMS on NAVSIM v2, without reinforcement learning or an external trajectory scorer.
Destination Support Restoration for Finite-Set Multimodal Trajectory Prediction
Robots operating around pedestrians often reason over a finite set of predicted human futures. Repeated online updates can concentrate this limited prediction budget on dominant destinations and leave plausible alternatives underrepresented or absent, removing those alternatives from the finite representation available to downstream decision making. We introduce Destination Support Restoration (DSR), a causal post-selection operator that repairs destination support without retraining the host predictor or increasing the maintained set size. At a repair step, DSR evaluates a temporary destination-stratified candidate bank from the observed prefix, converts candidate evidence into integer target counts, protects representatives of active modes, and reallocates redundant surplus hypotheses to deficient modes. The maintained and returned sets retain exactly hypotheses, and DSR replaces at most entries. Protected representatives preserve current categorical support; lineage-aware particle filters also preserve surviving resampling ancestors. Each replacement reduces the allocation mismatch to the evidence-driven target by one. On the complete 3,719-trajectory Edinburgh protocol over three seeds, DSR reduces MIF weighted ADE and FDE by 13.36% and 13.30% at . Paired integrations with CLiFF, PPT, causal GDTS, Social Informer, and PECNet improve both metrics in every evaluated pair. These results show that finite-set support allocation is a useful prediction-side control point when a fixed hypothesis set serves as the interface to downstream systems.
Towards Omni-dimensional GUI Agent Navigation with Masked Trajectory Prediction
Graphical User Interface (GUI) Agents autonomously interact with software to fulfill user requests, where GUI navigation stands out as the most critical and challenging capability. Mastering this capability demands a complex synergy of step-wise decision-making, state-action alignment, and long-horizon planning. While directly mixing these corresponding navigation tasks seems intuitive to simultaneously acquire these skills, such a direct combination is severely bottlenecked by inconsistent optimization objectives and profound data heterogeneity. To overcome these barriers, we propose the MaP (stands for ``\textbf{M}asked Tr\textbf{a}jectory \textbf{P}rediction''), a unified framework that seamlessly harmonizes divergent GUI navigation tasks. By modeling multi-turn GUI interactions as a trajectory and defining training objectives through component masking and prediction, MaP shifts the optimization from task-specific marginal distributions to a consistent objective. Furthermore, to handle the data heterogeneity across multiple navigation tasks, we design a role-aware adapter learning module that dynamically routes each token to a specialized representation space. Extensive experiments on five representative GUI navigation benchmarks demonstrate that MaP effectively mitigates gradient conflicts and significantly outperforms the direct mixture training, establishing a robust paradigm for multi-task GUI navigation.
Testing-Driven Reliability Audit of Trajectory-Based Early Outcome Prediction for LLM Agents: Target-Specific Calibration Transfer Persists Within a Single Benchmark
Predicting early outcomes based on trajectory can decrease the expenses associated with agent evaluation by terminating a run once the outcome becomes sufficiently predictable, assuming that the predictor's confidence is properly calibrated. Calibration is at risk when a predictor is applied to an agent on which it was never trained, but it is not known whether such transfer failures are broad across agent systems or concentrated in specific target agent/head combinations. Using public SWE-bench Verified trajectories and a frozen dual-head early-outcome prediction pipeline, we ran a leave-one-agent-out calibration audit, a shared-predictor leave-two-agents-out control, oracle prior correction, and a robustness battery over training cohorts, task resampling, task halves, jackknife, and thresholds. Fixed-scaffold TerminalBench analysis served as a pre-registered boundary test. Broad same-predictor pairwise heterogeneity was not supported; the median pairwise corrected-gap differences were 0.0180 (SUCCESS head, 45 pairs) and 0.0385 (FAILURE head, 35 pairs), and the pre-registered heterogeneity criterion was not met on either head. Two specific combinations, gpt-5-mini/SUCCESS and claude-opus-4.6/FAILURE, showed persistent calibration-transfer errors (median corrected gaps 0.1377 and 0.1107) without a sign reversal under any frozen control. TerminalBench did not establish cross-benchmark replication: the success target produced zero decisions (INDETERMINATE), and the failure target did not satisfy the pre-registered persistence criterion. Therefore, a strong target-specific calibration-transfer error can exist within one frozen environment, but the evidence does not establish that the error is intrinsic to the model or general across benchmarks.
MM-Future: Multi-Mode Joint World-Action Modeling for Autonomous Driving
Autonomous driving involves coupled decision-making and scene evolution under multi-mode uncertainty. To capture this coupling and uncertainty, we introduce MM-Future, a world-action model that generates multiple paired scene-action hypotheses and models bidirectional interaction within each pair. Each hypothesis is initialized from a structured action prior and an independent future scene source, which are then co-evolved through a modality-aware diffusion Transformer. To support efficient multi-mode rollout, MM-Future compresses multi-view video into planning-oriented representations, dubbed MM-Tokens. Finally, a future-conditioned proposal scorer ranks trajectory candidates by shared history context and their paired predicted future. On NAVSIM navtest, MM-Future achieves 94.0 PDMS and 91.5 EPDMS, while attaining a 32.3 HD-Score in zero-shot closed-loop evaluation on HUGSIM. Ablations show consistent improvements over both single-mode and action-only variants, validating the benefit of multi-mode joint world-action modeling.
Vehicle Trajectory Prediction via Neural Fusion of Multiple EKF-Based Trajectory Candidates
Predicting the future trajectories of surrounding vehicles in autonomous driving is important for collision risk assessment and safe ego-vehicle path planning. Conventional neural network-based trajectory predictors typically achieve strong prediction performance by exploiting agent history, dynamic scene graphs, and semantic maps. However, in specific motion regimes such as acceleration, deceleration, and turning, these predictors may fail to reflect physically feasible trajectories. To address this issue, this study proposes a framework that fuses the output of Trajectron++, a neural network-based trajectory predictor, with extended Kalman filter (EKF)-based multiple trajectory candidates at a late stage. On the nuScenes dataset, the proposed method reduces the average displacement error and final displacement error of the Trajectron++ robot baseline by 13.7% and 14.6%, respectively, without modifying the baseline architecture. These results indicate that EKF-based trajectory candidates can effectively complement neural trajectory prediction through learned fusion.
FedPGT: Progressive Gradient Transmission for Vehicular Federated Learning over Time-Varying Channels
Vehicular federated learning (VFL) enables privacy-preserving collaborative model training for intelligent transportation systems, where communication resource allocation and gradient sparsification techniques have been explored to reduce communication overhead. However, vehicle mobility leads to rapidly varying channel conditions and transmission capacity, rendering predetermined resource allocation and sparsification decisions ineffective. In this paper, we propose FedPGT, a progressive gradient transmission scheme for VFL over time-varying channels, where vehicles progressively transmit high-magnitude gradient entries in response to instantaneous channel conditions. We establish a convergence bound that characterizes the impact of transmitted gradient entries and reveals diminishing-return behavior governed by a power-law decay. Motivated by this result, we formulate a stochastic optimization problem for online decision-making, where the main challenge lies in a cumulatively coupled, non-separable objective. To handle this challenge, we introduce per-slot surrogate transmission variables to decouple the long-term dependence across time slots and convert the original objective into an additive per-slot optimization problem, enabling a Lyapunov drift-plus-penalty approach for online scheduling. We further develop a low-complexity resource allocation algorithm for efficient online implementation. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme achieves a 3.65% accuracy improvement on the CIFAR-10 image classification task and a 12.66% reduction in average displacement error on the Argoverse trajectory prediction task compared with state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating its applicability to diverse learning tasks under highly dynamic vehicular environments.
Continual Learning for Traversability Prediction with Uncertainty-Aware Adaptation
Traversability prediction is a critical component of autonomous navigation in unstructured environments, where complex and uncertain robot-terrain interactions pose significant challenges such as traction loss and dynamic instability. Despite recent progress in learning-based traversability prediction, these methods often fail to adapt to novel terrains. Even when adaptation is achieved, retaining experience from previously trained environments remains a challenge, a problem known as catastrophic forgetting. To address this challenge, we propose a continual learning framework for traversability prediction that incrementally adapts to new terrains using a generative experience recall model. A key virtue of the proposed framework is two folds: i) retain prior experience without storing past data; and ii) incorporate the uncertainty of the generated samples from the recall model, enabling uncertainty-aware adaptation. Real-world experiments with a skid-steering robot validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, demonstrating its ability to adapt across a series of diverse environments while mitigating catastrophic forgetting.
FlowATC: Aircraft Trajectory Prediction via Flow Matching
Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matching architecture trained exclusively on historical aircraft trajectories, with no route labels or chart supervision. Trained on 1.15 million Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast trajectory windows collected over the San Francisco Bay Area, the model generates aircraft trajectory distributions that closely match historical traffic, reproducing known airspace structure around San Francisco Airport such as the shape of SFO's published NIITE FOUR departure procedure. Our model is trained directly on the native, irregular ADS-B sampling interval. Trajectory prediction is cast as sequence inpainting using a block-causal Transformer that denoises future state tokens conditioned on the observed history using Conditional Flow Matching or Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. We compare our architecture against constant-velocity, deterministic-Long Short Term Memory, and Conditional Variational Autoencoders baselines. At matched parameter count, CFM outperforms DDPM by 11-26% in minADE@20, and both generative objectives surpass the CVAE baseline by 31-41%. We further show that the error degrades gracefully with prediction horizon, and the architecture remains effective when retrained on temporally decimated feeds. Lastly, we sample independent completions, yielding spatial probabilistic occupancy estimates that can serve as input to downstream conflict-risk estimation.
TempTPI: Informer-Based trajectory prediction for maritime vessels
Accurate long-term trajectory prediction for maritime vessels is essential for safety and logistical efficiency. While deep learning models, particularly Transformers, have shown promise in processing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, they often struggle with the quadratic computational complexity of self-attention and the loss of accuracy over extended forecasting horizons. This study proposes TempTPI, a novel prediction framework that integrates an Informer-based encoder with a multi-channel temporal encoding mechanism. The Informer architecture leverages a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism to reduce computational overhead and focus on the most significant dependencies, while the temporal encoder utilizes Fourier-like frequency expansions to capture cyclic patterns (hourly, daily, and seasonal) in vessel behavior. We evaluate our model against the state-of-the-art TPTrans architecture using AIS data from Danish waters. Experimental results demonstrate that TempTPI consistently outperforms existing methods across prediction windows of 1 to 5 hours. Notably, at a 5-hour horizon, the proposed model achieves a 55% improvement in Mean Squared Error (MSE), offering a robust solution for long-range maritime situational awareness.
Flow-JEPA: Robust Latent Dynamics for JEPA World Models via Flow Matching
Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) provide a powerful framework for latent world modeling and planning in a reconstruction-free manner. Although numerous JEPA-based approaches have been proposed to mitigate representation collapse, our experiments on localized, out-of-distribution visual noise reveal that performance degradation remains pronounced and unresolved. We propose Flow-JEPA (F-JEPA), a flow-based latent dynamics model that jointly generates a sequence of future latent states conditioned on the current observation and actions. A Gaussian distribution serves as the flow source, exposing the vector field to perturbed latent trajectories as it learns to transport them toward clean future representations. This formulation retains the reconstruction-free JEPA framework while switching from pointwise transition regression to stochastic trajectory-level prediction. F-JEPA raises mean success from to under clean observations and from to under noisy conditions. Further evaluations over varying perturbation severity and inference settings show that the performance advantage persists across a broad range of conditions. These results suggest that conditional flow matching provides a promising alternative to deterministic autoregressive prediction as a dynamics formulation in JEPA world models.
GeoWAM: Visual Geometry World Action Models for Autonomous Driving
World action models (WAMs) have recently gained increasing attention as a framework for jointly modeling scene evolution and ego actions in autonomous driving. Most existing WAMs learn scene dynamics in pixel space by combining a video-generation backbone for future-observation prediction with an action head for ego-trajectory prediction. Pixels, however, provide only an indirect representation of these dynamics: they entangle geometry and motion with appearance, texture, and illumination, forcing the model to infer three-dimensional transformations from two-dimensional observations. We argue that point-based geometry provides a more natural state space for driving. It explicitly captures spatial structure and both rigid and non-rigid scene dynamics while remaining aligned with the 3D space of driving actions. Building on this insight, we introduce GeoWAM, a visual geometry world action model for autonomous driving. Rather than predicting future images, GeoWAM is pretrained to forecast future scene geometry, yielding representations that jointly encode spatial structure and temporal evolution. A geometry-conditioned action head then leverages these learned geometric dynamics to predict future ego-trajectories. Extensive experiments show that GeoWAM outperforms image-based alternatives, achieving a combined EPDMS of 36.6 on navhard without PDMS supervision and strong zero-shot generalization to nuScenes, with a collision rate of 0.24%. Scaling geometry pretraining with unlabeled data further improves performance, increasing the navhard score by 8.2% to 39.6 and strengthening zero-shot transfer to nuScenes, where the collision rate is reduced by 50% to 0.12%. Together, these results establish geometry as an effective state representation for autonomous driving and geometry pretraining as a general, scalable strategy for downstream planning.
Clustered Randomized Smoothing for Stochastic Prediction Functions
Modern stochastic predictors can model rich, multi-modal outcome distributions. However, this expressive power comes with challenges in ensuring robust predictions a critical requirement in safety-critical domains. Randomized smoothing is a leading technique for improving robustness, particularly against adversarial perturbations. Yet, in stochastic multi-modal regression settings, randomized smoothing often fails due to mode collapse, yielding averaged predictions that do not reflect the underlying distribution. To address this limitation, we propose clustered -smoothing, a framework that (1) partitions noisy samples using an arbitrary clustering algorithm, (2) applies -smoothing locally within each cluster, and (3) combines the resulting predictions into a mixture distribution. By interpreting the smoothing distribution as a mixture of -smoothers, we derive a lower bound on the probability that the smoothed prediction lies within a union of compact regions corresponding to distinct modes. We empirically evaluate our framework on two benchmarks, demonstrating substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods. In stochastic trajectory prediction on a driving simulator dataset, our approach achieves, on average, a lower Wasserstein distance to the ground-truth distribution compared to -smoothing. In quadrotor control, where modes correspond to distinct feasible paths to a target, our method reduces the collision rate by relative to the state-of-the-art randomized smoothing.
Long-Time Trajectory Approximation via SA-NODEs: Model Predictive and Floquet Strategies
We study the approximation of dynamical systems by semi-autonomous neural ordinary differential equations (SA-NODEs) over long time horizons. For a single network trained on the whole horizon, the available error bound deteriorates double exponentially in the horizon length. We develop two training strategies that avoid this barrier, each built on a reset of the state. The model predictive strategy partitions the horizon adaptively and restarts every window from observed data: when training meets a prescribed tolerance on every window, the composite model meets it uniformly in time, with a parameter budget linear in the horizon for targets with a bounded, uniformly regular reachable tube. The Floquet strategy addresses autonomous targets with a stable limit cycle and uses no data at deployment: a certified contraction of the learned return map confines the error to linear growth in the number of elapsed periods. For the time-periodic architecture we deploy, the scalar certificate degenerates; we prove instead a uniform-in-time orbital guarantee whose hypotheses are measured on the trained model, and an obstruction showing that, for an exactly periodic learned field, small one-period error and a contracting stroboscopic map cannot hold at once. Numerical experiments on four benchmarks confirm the predicted error laws and measure the hypotheses of every guarantee.
UniNav: A Unified World-Action Diffusion Model for Visual Navigation
Image-goal visual navigation is a fundamental capability for embodied agents. Existing navigation policies efficiently predict waypoint trajectories but lack visual foresight, while navigation world models can anticipate future observations but often require costly planning rollouts. We present UniNav, a unified world-action model that generates future visual observations and continuous waypoint trajectories through a single diffusion process. Given history frames and a goal image, UniNav jointly denoises visual and waypoint tokens within a single transformer, unifying future prediction and action generation in a shared framework. To improve spatial grounding, we incorporate geometry-aware camera tokens. We also train on both trajectory-labeled navigation data and video-only data, enabling the model to benefit from diverse videos without waypoint annotations. Based on this unified framework, we introduce two variants: UniNav-Full jointly predicts interpretable future observations and their corresponding trajectories, while UniNav-Fast removes future-image tokens at inference for efficient trajectory prediction. Experiments on navigation benchmarks show that UniNav outperforms the strongest baseline in ATE across all datasets. With one-step inference, UniNav-Fast achieves a latency of 0.1s without a substantial accuracy drop. Code will be released.
EulerLoRA: Rank-Driven Jump Dynamics for Calibrated Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning
Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) enables parameter-efficient fine-tuning, but standard LoRA produces a single deterministic model and does not directly support predictive uncertainty estimation. We introduce EulerLoRA, a stochastic extension of LoRA that generates multiple predictive trajectories by sampling structured variations along the rank-one components of shared low-rank adapters, while preserving the deterministic LoRA transformation in expectation. We evaluate EulerLoRA with vision transformers on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and HAM10000, together with out-of-distribution detection on SVHN. Across these benchmarks, EulerLoRA achieves comparable or improved performance relative to strong LoRA-Ensemble baselines. Using two rank-20 adapters, EulerLoRA requires approximately 3 million trainable adapter parameters, compared with about 10 million for a rank-8, 16-adapter LoRA-Ensemble, corresponding to roughly 69% fewer trainable parameters. These results show that useful predictive diversity can be obtained from a small number of shared adapters.
Auto-JEPA: A Latent World Model of Continuous Intent for End-to-End Autonomous Driving
Existing autonomous-driving world models typically perform dense prediction of future videos, occupancy states, BEV representations, or agent motion. We argue that planning need not reconstruct the complete future world, but only focus on scene features that affect future ego action. Based on this perspective, we propose Auto-JEPA, an action-oriented latent world model that learns continuous future driving intent through joint-embedding prediction. Given visual observations, egomotion history, and navigation commands, Auto-JEPA predicts an intent embedding aligned with the latent representation of the future ego trajectory. The predicted intent retrieves executable trajectories from a fixed trajectory memory, which are then ranked by a scene-conditioned candidate selection module. Auto-JEPA keeps the visual encoder frozen, requires no explicit perception annotations, and uses no learned trajectory generator. By optimizing only task-specific modules for trajectory representation, intent prediction, and candidate selection, Auto-JEPA achieves 91.3 PDMS on NAVSIM v1 and 89.1 EPDMS on NAVSIM v2. Semantic occlusion experiments show that masking dynamic-agent regions induces an average intent change 2.97x that of equal-area random masking. Moreover, occluding vehicles that affect future driving substantially changes the predicted intent and selected trajectory, whereas both remain essentially unchanged when non-influential vehicles are occluded. These results show that future-intent prediction encourages the model to focus on planning-relevant visual features and supports high-quality planning without dense future-world modeling.
Context-Informed Ship Trajectory Prediction via Conditional Attention
Long-term ship trajectory prediction is a fundamental capability for maritime safety and autonomous navigation. While recent Transformer-based architectures have improved forecasting horizons, they predominantly rely on historical kinematic states, treating vessel motion as an isolated system. In reality, maritime navigation is profoundly modulated by extrinsic factors like weather and constrained by static vessel characteristics. Existing multimodal approaches fundamentally model the joint distribution over states and contexts, treating environmental variables as peer features rather than encoding the directional physical dependence of vessel dynamics on environmental conditions. In this work, we propose the Conditional Informer, a novel encoder-decoder architecture that formulates trajectory prediction as a conditional generation task. We employ a dedicated Conditional Attention mechanism where the vessel state explicitly queries environmental contexts through cross-attention, encoding the physical prior that weather modulates - but is not generated by - vessel dynamics. Furthermore, to address the intermittency of real-world data, we introduce a Modality Masking training strategy to prevent catastrophic degradation during sensor fallback. Extensive experiments on AIS and ERA5 data demonstrate that our approach outperforms kinematic and concatenation-based baselines by 15.4% in prediction accuracy when context is available. Crucially, Modality Masking prevents shortcut learning, reducing fallback error by nearly an order of magnitude compared to unconstrained models.
MetaKoopman: Bayesian Meta-Learning of Koopman Operators for Modeling Structured Dynamics under Distribution Shifts
Modeling and forecasting nonlinear dynamics under distribution shifts is essential for robust decision-making in real-world systems. In this work, we propose MetaKoopman, a Bayesian meta-learning framework for modeling nonlinear dynamics through linear latent representations. MetaKoopman learns a Matrix Normal-Inverse Wishart (MNIW) prior over the Koopman operator, enabling closed-form Bayesian updates conditioned on recent trajectory segments. Moreover, it provides a closed-form posterior predictive distribution over future state trajectories, capturing both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the learned dynamics. We evaluate MetaKoopman on a full-scale autonomous truck and trailer system across a wide range of adverse winter scenarios, including snow, ice, and mixed-friction conditions, as well as in simulated control tasks with diverse distribution shifts. MetaKoopman consistently outperforms prior approaches in multi-step prediction accuracy, uncertainty calibration, and robustness to distributional shifts. Field experiments further demonstrate its effectiveness in dynamically feasible motion planning, particularly during evasive maneuvers and operation at the limits of traction. Project website: https://mahmoud-selim.github.io/MetaKoopman/
UNIVERSE: Unified Video Action Models for Autonomous Driving with Flexible Mask-Modulated Modality Generation
World Action Models (WAMs) have shown strong potential for improving action generalization in autonomous driving by using future video prediction as dense supervision for scene dynamics and temporal causality. However, it remains unclear which architecture better transfers video-modeling benefits to trajectory generation. Existing cascaded or dual-DiT designs separate video imagination from action prediction, weakening the transfer of video-learned world dynamics to the trajectory branch: the action model may still overfit dataset-specific driving priors, while the video model only indirectly regularizes planning. We propose UNIVERSE, a unified video-action model built upon a single mask-modulated Diffusion Transformer. By co-training future video latents and ego-trajectory tokens within shared generative parameters, UNIVERSE allows dense video supervision to directly shape trajectory denoising, leading to stronger cross-domain action generalization. To ensure causal validity and efficient deployment, we introduce a Modality-Decoupling Visibility Mask, which shares historical context across modalities while blocking mutual attention between future video and trajectory tokens. This prevents future-target leakage and enables trajectory-only inference by removing future-video denoising at test time, achieving a speedup over joint video-action rollout while maintaining comparable planning accuracy. The same model also supports video-only and joint video-action rollouts. Experiments show that UNIVERSE achieves 91.0 PDMS on NAVSIM (vs. 89.6 for the Two-DiT variant), and demonstrates strong zero-shot transfer to nuScenes and Bench2Drive without fine-tuning, while ablations confirm the importance of single-DiT unification, video co-training, and mask-based modality decoupling.
Neuro-Symbolic Safety Guidance for Vision-Language-Action Models via Constrained Flow Matching
Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have demonstrated promising generalization capabilities across robotic manipulation tasks, yet their real-world deployment remains limited by the lack of effective safety measures. Specifically, existing safety measures only prevent collisions caused by the robot's next action. In this paper, we propose a neuro-symbolic safety guidance mechanism for flow matching based VLAs that enables predictive collision avoidance. Flow matching based VLAs determine the next actions by predicting a trajectory (a sequence of actions) through an iterative neural flow matching process. Our method formulates safety enforcement as a minimum-norm constrained optimization problem that corrects safety violations during the denoising process of noisy intermediate trajectory predictions. By analyzing predicted trajectories and applying corrections during iterative denoising, our approach anticipates collisions before they become unavoidable. This interleaving of symbolic constraint satisfaction with neural trajectory generation enables predictive collision avoidance rather than reactive intervention. On the SafeLIBERO benchmark, our method achieves 82.8% collision avoidance and 81.6% task success, a 6.3% and 19.8% improvement respectively over single-step methods, with the largest gains on long-horizon tasks where compounding distribution shift is most pronounced. Video demonstrations of our approach are included on our project page at https://willenglish.tech/SafetyGuidedFlowMatching/.
SD-RouteFusion: Ego-Trajectory Prediction with SD-Map Route Conditioning
This paper presents SD-RouteFusion, a deployable end-to-end ego-trajectory prediction method that fuses a front-facing camera, vehicle kinematics, and a navigation route derived from a Standard Definition (SD) map. Unlike approaches that rely on High Definition (HD) map geometry, SD-RouteFusion aligns the learning objective with scalable and production-ready SD-map route inputs, enabling route-aware prediction without requiring HD-map infrastructure. First, we demonstrate that SD-map route prior provides a powerful long-horizon semantic prior. Through a comprehensive study on a large-scale real-world dataset comprising 480k driving scenarios across 10 European countries and the U.S., we quantify the value of SD-route conditioning: incorporating SD-map routes yields a 10.5% ADE improvement over an image-and-kinematics baseline, while our full fusion strategy achieves a 16.9% ADE reduction given a prediction horizon of 8 seconds. The fusion strategy consists of a dual-hypothesis design paired with a gated classifier, to ensure robustness under route corruption and visual uncertainty. Finally, to support broader evaluation, we release an SD-route generation toolkit that enables SD-route-conditioned ego-trajectory prediction on all datasets containing ego pose and future trajectories. Together, SD-RouteFusion establishes a practical path toward robust, route-aware ego-trajectory prediction at scale.
Towards Metric-Agnostic Trajectory Forecasting
Accurate trajectory forecasting of surrounding traffic participants is a core capability for autonomous driving, enabling vehicles to anticipate behavior and plan safe maneuvers. We observe that current state-of-the-art forecasting models on Argoverse 2 and the Waymo Open Motion Dataset tailor their training objectives to the different benchmark metrics. Because these metrics encourage conflicting behavior, we propose a paradigm change for trajectory forecasting: training models with metric-agnostic probabilistic objectives and treating metric optimization as a downstream task applied to the predictive distribution. Concretely, we introduce Trajectory Distribution Evaluation (TraDiE) policies, metric-specific policies that map a predictive distribution to the set of trajectories and confidences required by trajectory forecasting metrics. We evaluate this framework by introducing DONUT-NLL, which adapts the training objective of the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model DONUT to directly optimize the predictive distribution. Using our policies, DONUT-NLL achieves state-of-the-art results on all metrics of the Waymo motion prediction benchmark.
Interventional Flow Matching: Prospective Dose-Response Forecasting with Velocity-Field Jacobian Regularization
Predicting a patient's physiological trajectory under a planned treatment sequence is a prospective interventional problem, not standard time-series extrapolation. We study this problem in glucose management, where insulin and carbohydrate records are policy-dependent: future drivers are coupled to patient state, behavior, and clinical decision rules, so observational forecasting accuracy alone does not guarantee correct responses to planned interventions. We introduce Interventional Flow Matching (IFM), a continuous-time generative framework for physiologically constrained prospective forecasting. IFM conditions a flow-matching velocity field on patient history and planned future drivers in a bounded latent glucose space. Rather than embedding strict mechanistic glucose--insulin ODE equations or enforcing causality through rollout-based simulations, IFM uses a solver-free regularization: it penalizes the Jacobian of the instantaneous velocity field with respect to smoothed treatment drivers. This imposes signed, dose-bounded local sensitivities directly on the learned dynamics: insulin lowers glucose, carbohydrates raise it, and both responses remain within plausible ranges. On a simulated UVA/Padova type 1 diabetes cohort, IFM achieves the strongest balance between observed-driver RMSE and interventional response metrics. Across experiments, it consistently produces physiologically correct responses to both insulin and carbohydrate drivers while maintaining high directional, and ranking consistency.
TrajRS: Towards Certified Robustness in Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction
The robustness of trajectory prediction models is crucial for developing safe autonomous driving systems. Adversarial attacks on trajectory prediction can significantly impair the accuracy of predicted trajectories, leading to hazardous driving behaviors. While heuristic defense strategies have been implemented to enhance the robustness of trajectory prediction models, these measures often fail against more sophisticated, targeted adversarial attacks. Hence, there is a pressing need to establish verifiable safety assurances for trajectory prediction models. In this paper, we extend the traditional Randomized Smoothing framework to "TrajRS", which provides a certified robust radius for smoothed trajectory predictors. We clarify and expand the formal definitions of robustness in trajectory prediction and tailor the practical TrajRS scheme specifically to "robustness for the optimal prediction" and "robustness for all possible predictions". An extensive set of experiments demonstrates that TrajRS effectively achieves robustness certification for all smoothed pedestrian trajectory predictors in this work.
NavWM: A Unified Navigation World Model for Foresight-Driven Planning
Conventional visual navigation policies often struggle with myopic decision-making and mode collapse in complex environments. While world models offer a promising alternative, existing paradigms typically isolate perception, generation, and control, failing to capture their shared spatio-temporal dynamics. In this paper, we propose NavWM, a unified navigation world model that seamlessly integrates latent world reasoning, multimodal action prediction, and controllable visual generation. At its core, NavWM leverages latent world tokens to distill geometric and semantic priors, endowing the agent with robust structural understanding. To overcome the limitations of deterministic policies, we introduce an anchor-based multimodal trajectory forecasting framework that generates a diverse action space. This inherent diversity explicitly empowers the generative world model to act as a robust closed-loop planner, utilizing visual foresight to evaluate and select the optimal path. Extensive experiments across diverse robotics datasets demonstrate that NavWM significantly advances the state-of-the-art, delivering remarkable improvements in both high-fidelity future state generation and zero-shot navigation success.
A DVDrive Approach for doScenes Instructed Driving Challenge
Instruction-conditioned trajectory prediction is an emerging problem in autonomous driving, where a model predicts the future ego trajectory not only from visual scene context and historical motion, but also from a natural-language maneuver instruction. This paper presents our submission to the doScenes Instructed Driving Challenge, built upon OmniDrive, a vision-language-action driving agent with 3D perception, reasoning, and planning capabilities. We adapt OmniDrive to the doScenes setting by training it on instruction-annotated nuScenes scenes and generating a 6-second ego trajectory represented by 12 future waypoints. To improve multi-view visual grounding, we further introduce a DVPE-style divided-view perception module into the OmniDrive perception head. Instead of attending globally to all camera features, the proposed module groups query features and image tokens into divided local view spaces and performs visibility-aware cross-attention within each view. This design reduces irrelevant cross-view interference and helps the model better align language instructions with local driving-relevant visual evidence. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/feel12348/doscenes-omnidrive.
Constant Time-Delay Leader Following with Neural Networks and Invariant Extended Kalman Filters for Arbitrary Trajectories
This paper proposes a constant time-delay trajectory tracking method for vehicle convoys operating without inter-vehicle communication, a common coordinate system, or global positioning. The method integrates a probabilistic sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) neural network with an invariant extended Kalman filter (IEKF) to warm-start the prediction process, allowing accurate estimation of a leader vehicle's relative trajectory on the SE(2) manifold. A geometric model predictive controller is further incorporated to fully exploit the manifold-based trajectory predictions for improved control performance. The system can handle arbitrary nonlinear trajectories with varying speeds and motion profiles while reducing the need for expert-based domain knowledge for the design of trajectory following systems, even under long trajectory delays. The effectiveness of the method is validated through comparisons with a pure IEKF baseline, learning-based methods, and the ground-truth trajectory in kinematic simulations, as well as in experiments using real robotic vehicles.
Where Will They Go? Modelling Multimodal Pedestrian Manoeuvres from Ego-centric Videos
Pedestrian trajectory prediction from an ego-centric camera is challenging since it depends on complex interactions with vehicles and scene context, as well as the intention of the pedestrian. By modelling correlation and intent from the historical and future trajectories of the pedestrian, it will usually result in a multimodal (i.e. multiple modes) distribution. Existing stochastic predictors often sample multiple futures from a single unimodal distribution, which can yield sub-optimal 'mixed-mode' trajectories that lie between distinct motion patterns and become implausible in real scenes. In this paper, we propose MMPM, a mode-aware framework that separately models future trajectory distributions into semantically meaningful modes based on the pedestrian's crossing behavior. MMPM consists of two modules: behavior-aware Pedestrian Interaction Module (PIM) that jointly captures pedestrian-vehicle and pedestrian-environment interactions by introducing gaze, head and hand gesture, and a CVAE-based Mode-aware Trajectory Predictor (MTP) module to model the future trajectory distributions on two modes, crossing and non-crossing the road, separately. A query-based decoder further enforces mode consistency during decoding. Experiments on PIE and JAAD datasets show that our method surpasses state-of-the-art baselines. Our proposed MTP is model-agnostic, which can be integrated into existing frameworks such as BiTrap-NP and SGNet-ED to further improve future trajectory prediction performance. We additionally introduce a data-driven validation protocol that matches predictions to spatio-temporally consistent ground-truth trajectories, demonstrating improved frame-wise displacement errors over previous work.
Reconstructing and forecasting disease trajectories of patients with Alzheimer's disease using routine data in resource-constrained settings
Alzheimer's disease is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, and its progression varies substantially across patients. Existing work aims to forecast patients' future cognitive state, with minimal focus on reconstructing the state from past visits. Furthermore, in current research, quantifying predictive uncertainty remains underexplored and relies on costly modalities such as MRI, PET, and CSF, limiting their deployment in resource-limited settings. In this research, our primary objectives are: First, bidirectional prediction of cognitive scores from irregular visits to present the complete disease trajectory. Second, to enable interpolation and extrapolation capabilities to assist clinicians in informed prognostic decision making, and third, to provide a well-calibrated uncertainty estimate for all predictions, and finally, to achieve the objectives using the modalities available during routine visits. We propose a unified framework, GNOVA: A GRU-Neural ODE Variational Autoencoder. The architecture combines a Gated Recurrent Unit encoder and a Neural ODE decoder within a variational autoencoder framework. In our work, we forecast the CDR-SB and MMSE Scores. The GRU encoder allows for any number of inputs at any time point. The Neural-ODE decoder performs continuous estimation, allowing interpolation and extrapolation at any desired time point. The Variational autoencoder allows for uncertainty estimation in predictions. We worked with 1,727 patients from the ADNI dataset over 10 years; the model achieved mean absolute errors of 1.35 and 2.28 for CDR-SB and MMSE scores, respectively, without requiring any neuroimaging or biomarker data. Feature-ablation studies revealed that age, BMI, and APOE4 status were strong predictors. The proposed framework enables the reconstruction of incomplete patient histories and the anticipation of future cognitive states.
Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series
Detecting transient chaos from scalar observations without governing equations represents a fundamental challenge in nonlinear dynamics. We propose a geometry-guided machine learning framework that unifies predictive trajectory divergence with macroscopic attractor morphology to track abrupt regime shifts. The methodology extracts a local instability scale via out-of-sample k-nearest neighbor forecast errors to establish the ML-FTLE estimator, subsequently mapping this temporal divergence onto a structural closeness matrix derived from a minimal dictionary of Poincare occupancy grids. By employing partial least squares regression, we extract a latent geometric component calibrated directly to the empirical finite-time Lyapunov spectrum, yielding the Poincare-based geometric-guided FTLE. Validation against analytical QR-FTLE baselines confirms that fusing topological state spaces with predictive divergence systematically improves continuous transition tracking. The Structural Similarity Index optimally resolves gradual damping, while Hausdorff Distance exhibits extreme resilience during abrupt phase-space collapses. Furthermore, macroscopic spatial discretization acts as a robust topological regularizer against additive Gaussian noise, preserving deterministic signatures even at moderate signal thresholds. This equation-free framework provides a highly accurate, noise-resilient diagnostic for monitoring structural transitions in complex non-stationary systems.
Multimodal Action Diffusion for Robust End-to-End Autonomous Driving
End-to-End Autonomous Driving (E2E-AD) systems have largely converged on predicting intermediate trajectory waypoints, delegating final control to hand-crafted controllers with GPS access. Direct control-signal prediction (outputting throttle, steer and brake in an end-to-end fashion) remains underexplored, and critically, the role of action multimodality in such systems is not well understood. We argue that moving beyond deterministic, single-action outputs is not merely a modelling choice, but a key driver of driving performance, representational quality, and training stability. To validate this, we introduce the Action Diffusion Transformer (ADT), an anchor-free diffusion transformer trained with a MSE objective that natively models the multimodal distribution of plausible driving actions. Rather than committing to a single deterministic command, ADT generates K action candidates and selects the most suitable one at inference via Nearest Neighbour Matching (NNM). Beyond strong benchmark numbers, we show that action multimodality yields measurable benefits in learned representations and behavioral consistency, effects that deterministic architectures cannot replicate. ADT surpasses previous state-of-the-art on the challenging closed-loop Bench2Drive benchmark while achieving ten times lower latency, demonstrating that expressive, multimodal action modelling is both practically efficient and conceptually essential for robust end-to-end driving.
BitTP: The Lightweight Trajectory Prediction Model with BitLLM for Edge-Devices
Trajectory prediction is a fundamental task for autonomous systems, requiring complex reasoning about multi-agent interactions and intents. Large language models (LLMs) have recently been adopted for this task, as they provide strong contextual reasoning and interpretable, language-based trajectory representations. However, these LLM-based predictors are extremely memory- and compute-intensive, making them difficult to deploy on resource-constrained edge devices such as on-board computers in autonomous robots. To bridge this gap, we propose BitTP, which converts an LLM-based trajectory predictor into a lightweight bitlinear architecture. We demonstrate that weight-only quantization to 1.58-bit (BitTP-Weight) is optimal. Crucially, activations must remain in full precision, as quantizing them leads to severe degradation and instability in spatio-temporal reasoning. Empirically, BitTP-Weight not only preserves but improves prediction quality over the full-precision (BF16) LLM baseline, reducing ADE by 14.29% and FDE by 20.97% on average, while simultaneously reducing memory usage and inference latency relative to other quantization methods. These results demonstrate that carefully designed quantization acts as an effective regularizer, enabling the practical deployment of sophisticated LLM-based reasoning on edge devices. Code is available at: https://github.com/MintCat98/BitTP.
Agent-Centric Social Trajectory Prediction: A Free Energy Principle Perspective
Trajectory prediction methods have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in capturing complex motion patterns. However, existing methods rely on global state assumptions, suffer from insufficient belief inference under partial observability, and lack cognitive behavioral constraints in prediction. These limitations severely compromise both deployment feasibility and physical plausibility in real-world settings. In this work, we propose FEP-Diff, an agent-centric trajectory prediction framework grounded in the Free Energy Principle, aimed at achieving cognitively plausible predictions under realistic constraints. Specifically, a dual-branch spatiotemporal encoder extracts ego-motion dynamics and social interaction cues from local observations. Building upon this, a goal-conditioned belief learner infers multimodal latent belief distributions optimized via a free-energy objective, with a social consistency constraint on the local neighborhood graph to promote cognitive alignment among neighboring agents. Finally, a residual diffusion trajectory generator is conditioned on the learned belief representations with token-level proxy conditioning, producing precise and diverse future predictions. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that FEP-Diff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods under restricted observability. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FEP-Diff-8876.
Learning with Foresight: Enhancing Neural Routing Policy via Multi-Node Lookahead Prediction
Neural policies have shown promise in solving vehicle routing problems due to their reduced reliance on handcrafted heuristics. However, current training paradigms suffer from a fundamental limitation: they primarily focus on next-node prediction for solution construction, resulting in myopic decision-making that undermines long-horizon planning capacity. To this end, we introduce Multi-node Lookahead Prediction (MnLP), a novel training strategy that extends the supervised learning paradigm to predict multiple future nodes simultaneously. We incorporate causal and discardable MnLP modules that operate exclusively during training, facilitating models to anticipate multi-step decisions while preserving inference-time efficiency. By incorporating multi-depth auxiliary supervision into the loss function, MnLP equips neural policies with the ability of long-range contextual understanding. Experimentally, MnLP outperforms existing training methods, improving the generalization capability of neural policies across various problem sizes, distributions, and real-world benchmarks. Moreover, MnLP can be seamlessly integrated into diverse neural architectures without introducing additional inference overhead.
HEAT: Heterogeneous End-to-End Autonomous Driving via Trajectory-Guided World Models
End-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a compelling alternative to traditional modular pipelines by directly mapping raw sensor data to driving actions. While recent approaches achieve strong performance on single-domain datasets, their performance degrades significantly when trained jointly across multiple heterogeneous domains. In practice, however, autonomous systems must operate across diverse environments with heterogeneous distributions, including different cities, sensor configurations, and traffic patterns, without domain-specific retraining. This gap highlights a key challenge in multi-domain learning: domain-specific variations across heterogeneous domains introduce conflicting learning signals, driving models toward compromised solutions that are suboptimal across domains. To address this, we propose a trajectory-driven learning paradigm that organizes training around planning trajectories, enabling the model to capture domain-invariant representations of driving intent. Furthermore, we incorporate a world model that predicts future latent features conditioned on ego actions, improving feature consistency and mitigating domain-induced biases. We evaluate our approach on three benchmarks, nuScenes, NAVSIM, and the Waymo end-to-end dataset, and show substantial improvements over existing methods across all domains. Our results demonstrate that a single unified model can be trained on heterogeneous datasets while maintaining strong performance within each domain, highlighting a step toward scalable real-world deployment. We will make our code publicly available.
EponaV2: Driving World Model with Comprehensive Future Reasoning
Data scaling plays a pivotal role in the pursuit of general intelligence. However, the prevailing perception-planning paradigm in autonomous driving relies heavily on expensive manual annotations to supervise trajectory planning, which severely limits its scalability. Conversely, although existing perception-free driving world models achieve impressive driving performance, their real-world reasoning ability for planning is solely built on next frame image forecasting. Due to the lack of enough supervision, these models often struggle with comprehensive scene understanding, resulting in unsatisfactory trajectory planning. In this paper, we propose EponaV2, a novel paradigm of driving world models, which achieves high-quality planning with comprehensive future reasoning. Inspired by how human drivers anticipate 3D geometry and semantics, we train our model to forecast more comprehensive future representations, which can be additionally decoded to future geometry and semantic maps. Extracting the 3D and semantic modalities enables our model to deeply understand the surrounding environment, and the future prediction task significantly enhances the real-world reasoning capabilities of EponaV2, ultimately leading to improved trajectory planning. Moreover, inspired by the training recipe of Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce a flow matching group relative policy optimization mechanism to further improve planning accuracy. The state-of-the-art (SOTA) performances of EponaV2 among perception-free models on three NAVSIM benchmarks (+1.3PDMS, +5.5EPDMS) demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.
Encore: Conditioning Trajectory Forecasting via Biased Ego Rehearsals
Learning and representing the subjectivities of agents has become a challenging but crucial problem in the trajectory prediction task. Such subjectivities not only present specific spatial or temporal structures, but also are anisotropic for all interaction participants. Despite great efforts, it remains difficult to explicitly learn and forecast these subjectivities, let alone further modulate models' predictions through a specific ego's subjectivity. Inspired by prefactual thoughts in psychology and relevant theatrical concepts, we interpret such subjectivities in future trajectories as the continuous process from rehearsal to encore. In the rehearsal phase, the proposed ego predictor focuses on how each ego agent learns to derive and direct a set of explicitly biased rehearsal trajectories for all participants in the scene from the short-term observations. Then, these rehearsal trajectories serve as immediate controls to condition final predictions, providing direct yet distinct ego biases for the prediction network to simulate agents' various subjectivities. Experiments across datasets not only demonstrate a consistent improvement in the performance of the proposed \emph{Encore} trajectory prediction model but also provide clear interpretability regarding subjectivities as biased ego rehearsals.
JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction
Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction (HTP) using generative modeling has emerged as a significant area of research. Although state-of-the-art models excel in optimizing the accuracy of individual agents, they often struggle to generate predictions that are collectively compliant, leading to output trajectories marred by social collisions and environmental violations, thus rendering them impractical for real-world applications. To bridge this gap, we present JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction, an innovative multi-stage framework that ensures scene-level plausibility. JACoP incorporates an Anchor-Based Agent-Centric Profiler for effective initial compliance filtering and employs a Markov Random Field (MRF) based aligner to formalize the joint selection for scene predictions. By representing inter-agent spatial and social costs as MRF energy potentials, we successfully infer and sample from the joint trajectory distribution, achieving prediction with optimal scene compliance. Comprehensive experiments show that JACoP not only achieves competitive accuracy, but also sets a new standard in reducing both environmental violations and social collisions, thereby confirming its ability to produce collectively feasible and practically applicable trajectory predictions.
SleepWalk: A Three-Tier Benchmark for Stress-Testing Instruction-Guided Vision-Language Navigation
Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have advanced rapidly in multimodal perception and language understanding, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably ground language into spatially coherent, plausibly executable actions in 3D digital environments. We introduce SleepWalk, a benchmark for evaluating instruction-grounded trajectory prediction in single-scene 3D worlds generated from textual scene descriptions and filtered for navigability. Unlike prior navigation benchmarks centered on long-range exploration across rooms, SleepWalk targets localized, interaction-centric embodied reasoning: given rendered visual observations and a natural-language instruction, a model must predict a trajectory that respects scene geometry, avoids collisions, and terminates at an action-compatible location. The benchmark covers diverse indoor and outdoor environments and organizes tasks into three tiers of spatial and temporal difficulty, enabling fine-grained analysis of grounding under increasing compositional complexity. Using a standardized pointwise judge-based evaluation protocol, we evaluate three frontier VLMs on 2,472 curated 3D environments with nine instructions per scene. Results reveal systematic failures in grounded spatial reasoning, especially under occlusion, interaction constraints, and multi-step instructions: performance drops as the difficulty level of the tasks increase. In general, current VLMs can somewhat produce trajectories that are simultaneously spatially coherent, plausibly executable, and aligned with intended actions. By exposing failures in a controlled yet scalable setting, SleepWalk provides a critical benchmark for advancing grounded multimodal reasoning, embodied planning, vision-language navigation, and action-capable agents in 3D environments.
DriveFuture: Future-Aware Latent World Models for Autonomous Driving
Existing latent world models for autonomous driving have opened a promising path toward future-aware driving intelligence. However, they typically treat future latent states as prediction targets or auxiliary signals, rather than directly conditioning trajectory planning. This can entangle current and future features in latent space. In this work, we propose DriveFuture, a future-aware latent world modeling framework for autonomous driving that explicitly learns planning-oriented foresight by conditioning the current latent state modeling process on future world states. Specifically, during training, the model first predicts future latent world states from the current latent state and ego action, and then refines the prediction against the ground-truth future latent state via cross-attention. The resulting future-aware latent serves as an explicit condition for a diffusion-based trajectory planner. During inference, DriveFuture conditions on the predicted future latent state instead of the ground-truth future state. DriveFuture achieves SOTA performance on the public NAVSIM benchmarks, reaching \textbf{55.5} EPDMS on NAVSIM-v2 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navhard}}}, \textbf{89.9} EPDMS on NAVSIM-v2 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navtest}}}, and \textbf{90.7} PDMS on NAVSIM-v1 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navtest}}}, respectively. These results suggest that the key to latent world modeling lies not merely in simulating future states, but more importantly in conditioning current decision-making on future states. Notably, as of April 2026, DriveFuture ranks \textbf{1st} on the \href{https://huggingface.co/spaces/AGC2025/e2e-driving-navhard}{NAVSIM-v2 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navhard}}}} leaderboard and achieves SOTA performance on \href{https://huggingface.co/spaces/AGC2024-P/e2e-driving-navtest}{NAVSIM-v1 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navtest}}}}.
ECTraj: Enhanced Consistency Training for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction
Diffusion models for multi-agent trajectory prediction are limited by iterative denoising, which causes inference latency that hinders their use in time-critical settings like autonomous driving. Fast-sampling variants using DDIM and informed initial noise distributions partially alleviate this issue, but they either fail to achieve true single-step generation or are constrained by the chosen noise distribution. Consistency Models (CMs) offer high-quality one-step generation by mapping noise directly to data, but are difficult to train from scratch. We propose ECTraj, an enhanced CM pipeline with improved training and conditional generation for trajectory prediction. Our framework extends the student-teacher consistency training scheme: the student produces standard outputs, while the teacher explicitly fuses its predictions with parts of the ground truth to give stronger supervision. We also exploit CMs' direct denoising for top-K multi-shot generation during training. Combining conditional generation with this enhanced consistency objective yields faster inference and improved prediction accuracy, establishing competitive new benchmarks on the large-scale Argoverse 2 dataset.
GSDrive: Reinforcing Driving Policies by Multi-mode Future Trajectory Probing with 3D Gaussian Splatting Environment
End-to-end (E2E) autonomous driving aims to directly map sensory observations to driving actions, but its real-world deployment is hindered by evolving data distributions and the high cost of continual annotation. While combining imitation learning (IL) and reinforcement learning (RL) is a common strategy for policy improvement, conventional RL training relies on delayed, event-based rewards, where policies learn only from catastrophic outcomes such as collisions, leading to premature convergence to suboptimal behaviors. To address these limitations, we propose GSDrive, a framework that uses a differentiable 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) environment for future-aware trajectory probing and reward shaping in E2E driving. GSDrive first learns a multi-mode trajectory probe via IL and then uses RL to evaluate multiple candidate futures in the 3DGS environment, converting their simulated returns into dense shaping rewards for policy optimization. This yields a cyclic hybrid IL-RL training loop, where IL supplies structured future priors and RL provides interactive feedback for iterative refinement. Evaluated on the reconstructed nuScenes dataset, our method outperforms other simulation-based RL approaches in closed-loop experiments. Code is available at https://github.com/ZionGo6/GSDrive.
Emotion-Conditioned Short-Horizon Human Pose Forecasting with a Lightweight Predictive World Model
Short-term human pose prediction plays a crucial role in interactive systems, assistive robots, and emotion-aware human-computer interaction[1-3]. While current trajectory prediction models primarily rely on geometric motion cues, they often overlook the underlying emotional signals influencing human motion dynamics[4-5]. This paper investigates whether facial expression-derived emotion embeddings can provide auxiliary conditional signals for short-term pose prediction. To further evaluate multimodal conditionation in a recursive prediction setting, we propose a lightweight autoregressive predictive world model that performs 15-step rolling pose prediction. This framework combines pose keypoints with emotion embeddings through a learnable gating mechanism and performs autoregressive unfolding prediction using a recurrent sequence model based on a two-layer LSTM architecture. Experiments were conducted on two small-scale pose-emotion video datasets: controlled motion sequences with minimal facial expression changes and, natural emotion-driven motion sequences with considerable facial expression changes. The results show that simple multimodal fusion does not consistently improve prediction accuracy, while normalized gating fusion significantly enhances the performance of emotion-driven motion sequences. Furthermore, counterfactual perturbation experiments demonstrate that the predicted trajectory exhibits measurable sensitivity to changes in multimodal input, suggesting that facial expression embeddings act as auxiliary conditional signals rather than redundant features. In summary, these results indicate that incorporating facial expression-derived emotion embeddings into emotion-conditional short-term pose prediction based on a lightweight predictive world model architecture is a feasible approach.
Collaborative Trajectory Prediction via Late Fusion
Predicting future trajectories of surrounding traffic agents is critical for safe autonomous navigation and collision avoidance. Despite all advances in the trajectory forecasting realm, the prediction models remains vulnerable to uncertainty caused by occlusions, limited sensing range, and perception errors. Collaborative vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) approaches help reduce this uncertainty by sharing complementary information. Existing collaborative trajectory prediction methods typically fuse feature maps at the perception stage to construct a holistic scene view. Further this holistic representation is decoded into the future trajectories. Such design incurs substantial communication overhead due to the exchange of high-dimensional feature representations and often assumes idealized bandwidth and synchronization, limiting practical deployment. We address these limitations by shifting collaboration from perception to the prediction module and introducing a late-fusion framework for shared forecasts. The framework is model-agnostic and treats collaborating vehicles as independent asynchronous agents. We evaluate the approach on the OPV2V, V2V4Real, and DeepAccident datasets, comparing individual and collaborative forecasting. Across all datasets, late fusion consistently reduces miss rate and improves trajectory success rate (), defined as the fraction of ground-truth agents with final displacement error below 0.5 m. On the real-world V2V4Real dataset, collaborative prediction improves the success rate by and for both intelligent vehicles, respectively, compared with individual forecasting.
Chatting about Conditional Trajectory Prediction
Human behavior has the nature of mutual dependencies, which requires human-robot interactive systems to predict surrounding agents trajectories by modeling complex social interactions, avoiding collisions and executing safe path planning. While there exist many trajectory prediction methods, most of them do not incorporate the own motion of the ego agent and only model interactions based on static information. We are inspired by the humans theory of mind during trajectory selection and propose a Cross time domain intention-interactive method for conditional Trajectory prediction(CiT). Our proposed CiT conducts joint analysis of behavior intentions over time, and achieves information complementarity and integration across different time domains. The intention in its own time domain can be corrected by the social interaction information from the other time domain to obtain a more precise intention representation. In addition, CiT is designed to closely integrate with robotic motion planning and control modules, capable of generating a set of optional trajectory prediction results for all surrounding agents based on potential motions of the ego agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed CiT significantly outperforms the existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in the benchmarks.
FedLLM: A Privacy-Preserving Federated Large Language Model for Explainable Traffic Flow Prediction
Traffic prediction plays a central role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) by supporting real-time decision-making, congestion management, and long-term planning. However, many existing approaches face practical limitations. Most spatio-temporal models are trained on centralized data, rely on numerical representations, and offer limited explainability. Recent Large Language Model (LLM) methods improve reasoning capabilities but typically assume centralized data availability and do not fully capture the distributed and heterogeneous nature of real-world traffic systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes FedLLM (Federated LLM), a privacy-preserving and distributed framework for explainable multi-horizon short-term traffic flow prediction (15-60 minutes). The framework introduces four key contributions: 1) a Composite Selection Score (CSS) for data-driven freeway selection that captures structural diversity across traffic regions 2) a domain-adapted LLM fine-tuned on structured traffic prompts encoding spatial, temporal, and statistical context 3) FedLLM framework, that enables collaborative training across heterogeneous clients while exchanging only lightweight LoRA adapter parameters, 4) a structured prompt representation that supports contextual reasoning and cross-region generalization. The FedLLM design allows each client to learn from local traffic patterns while contributing to a shared global model through efficient parameter exchange, reducing communication overhead and keeping data private. This setup supports learning under non-IID traffic distributions. Experimental results show that FedLLM achieves improved predictive performance over centralized baselines, while producing structured and explainable outputs. These findings highlight the potential of combining FL with domain-adapted LLMs for scalable, privacy-aware, and explainable traffic prediction.
Drive-JEPA: Video JEPA Meets Multimodal Trajectory Distillation for End-to-End Driving
End-to-end autonomous driving increasingly leverages self-supervised video pretraining to learn transferable planning representations. However, pretraining video world models for scene understanding has so far brought only limited improvements. This limitation is compounded by the inherent ambiguity of driving: each scene typically provides only a single human trajectory, making it difficult to learn multimodal behaviors. In this work, we propose Drive-JEPA, a framework that integrates Video Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (V-JEPA) with multimodal trajectory distillation for end-to-end driving. First, we adapt V-JEPA for end-to-end driving, pretraining a ViT encoder on large-scale driving videos to produce predictive representations aligned with trajectory planning. Second, we introduce a proposal-centric planner that distills diverse simulator-generated trajectories alongside human trajectories, with a momentum-aware selection mechanism to promote stable and safe behavior. When evaluated on NAVSIM, the V-JEPA representation combined with a simple transformer-based decoder outperforms prior methods by 3 PDMS in the perception-free setting. The complete Drive-JEPA framework achieves 93.3 PDMS on v1 and 87.8 EPDMS on v2, setting a new state-of-the-art.