Errors

Speaker diarization evaluation is sensitive to ambiguity in pause annotation, which can inflate diarization error rate (DER) or obscure genuine model errors. We show that morphological closing, which has been used for pause-tolerant diarization evaluation, discards segment-level distinctions. Instead, we propose an exact, overlap-aware decomposition of standard DER into a pause-attributable component, consisting of errors compatible with pause filling, and a residual core component that can serve as a proxy for intrinsic diarization errors. The decomposition leaves DER unchanged, while the pause-attributable and core components vary monotonically with the pause threshold and eventually saturate. Experiments spanning synthetic transformations, annotation mismatch, cross-domain evaluation, and tight-boundary diarization show that the decomposition reveals error sources not apparent from standard DER.

Exception Related Code (ERC), which includes throw statements, conditions (if statements) that guard those throw statements, and try/catch blocks, is an essential component of software systems, allowing developers to detect and handle exceptional states that deviate from the expected program behavior. However, manually writing ERC across large codebases is tedious. We propose a novel task: retrofitting existing code with ERC. Namely, given code (without ERC) and Exceptional Behavior Tests (EBTs) (e.g., check if method throws InvalidArgumentException if null is given as the value to the argument) we aim to automatically generate missing ERC, such that the given tests pass. We design and implement Exception Coder (EXCODER) that performs context engineering to help Large Language Models (LLMs) tackle this task. EXCODER integrates static and dynamic program analysis with LLMs by providing the extracted contextual information to the LLMs. To evaluate EXCODER, we build a benchmark constructed from GitHub Java repositories, where we systematically remove ERC in 304 methods from 75 projects. Our results demonstrate that EXCODER provides an effective, though imperfect, solution to this problem in automated code generation, offering developers the first way to implement ERC following test-driven development. When combined with Qwen 2.5 Coder 32b, EXCODER achieves pass@1, 5, and 10 rates of 85.92% (12.56 percentage points over baseline), 86.18% (12.82 p.p. over baseline), and 86.51% (13.15 p.p. over baseline), respectively, on developer-written test suites. Our manual inspection of the generated code further reveals limitations of EXCODER, pointing to directions for future work.

Cancer segmentation models can fail silently, generating plausible but incorrect masks that risk missed findings or unnecessary biopsies. A critical question arises: Do AI models "know" when they are wrong, and if so, can we use the signal to predict their own failures? Humans do have a "Feeling of Error" (FOE): a spontaneous sense of unease that flags a potential error during thinking. We investigate whether cancer segmentation models exhibit an analogous internal signal. Unlike output-level cues (e.g., prediction confidence or uncertainty), which offer no insight into why a failure occurs and suffer from a sensitivity-quality tradeoff where high detection sensitivity could degrade overall segmentation quality. We instead propose to capture the model's FOE from its inner workings. Using mechanistic interpretability tools, specifically Sparse Autoencoders, we decompose internal neural activations into a dictionary of human-interpretable concepts and show that failure cases exhibit a distinct latent signature: fewer active concepts with lower activation magnitudes compared to successful segmentation. By training a classifier on these concept activations, we achieve accurate failure detection along with explanations for the model's mistakes. Experiments on prostate, pancreatic, and brain cancer segmentation demonstrate that our approach outperforms output-based methods in failure detection while preserving segmentation quality.

When an external reference set (an anchor) is used to decompose an LLM-judge panel's error into a quality signal and a shared common-mode error, standard practice assumes the anchor is uncontaminated: its error uncorrelated with the judges' shared error. We study when that assumption can be dropped and replaced by an estimate. Under a single-common-factor model, >=2 judges and >=2 anchors point-identify the quality variance, the common-mode variance, and each anchor's contamination correlation rho_k in closed form, with an exact per-anchor-pair failure boundary; a designated clean-anchor estimator, by contrast, reports a contaminated companion anchor as fully clean once its trusted anchor is itself contaminated. Because the single-common-factor assumption is itself untestable, the estimator ships gated behind a calibrated diagnostic battery (judge-covariance dispersion; over-identification; a family-block test from judge metadata, with a family-blocked estimator that removes family-level shared-residual bias exactly), bootstrap confidence intervals with measured coverage, and a weak-identification screen. A proposition maps which violations bias rho_k, in which direction, and which evade detection. For ordinal scores we show an identification hierarchy: with all variables ordinal, rho_k is not identified at any number of anchors; with ordinal judges and >=3 continuous anchors it is, and we give an estimator for that case. On real data the validation is asymmetric, and we say so plainly: the diagnostics are validated in the rejecting direction (both real panels we test are correctly rejected by the model-adequacy pre-test), while the estimator is validated in simulation and stress-tested semi-synthetically under oracle calibration; no real panel has yet passed the pre-test, and the pre-test exists precisely to say so. All results replay offline from shipped, checksummed artifacts.

Updating a language model's knowledge through fine-tuning is essential for keeping its outputs current, yet can also induce factual forgetting and new hallucinations. Prior work shows that long-tail knowledge is harder to acquire and newly memorized long-tail facts are difficult to retain during later fine-tuning. We study a complementary question: among facts that a model has encoded correctly, which are most vulnerable to collateral corruption during other updates? To investigate this question under a realistic factual distribution, we construct a large-scale graph FACTPROP of verified Wikipedia facts by linking triples that share head or tail entities, thereby preserving connections among factual knowledge. We fine-tune models on factual statements and measure correct-to-incorrect facts after each update. Our results reveal a pattern distinct from prior findings on long-tail vulnerability during acquisition and retention: among facts that models already answer correctly, those associated with highly connected entities are more likely to be corrupted by neighboring updates, and updates to such facts propagate errors more broadly. Structural popularity therefore predicts both vulnerability and downstream damage. Inspired by this finding, we propose Popularity-based Anchoring (PopAnchor), a lightweight rehearsal strategy that preserves a small set of popular facts and reduces forgetting.

We study the local errors of classical machine-learning surrogate models, which approximate the time evolution of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation. Four models are compared on the same prediction task, using the spatial grid values directly: radial basis function (RBF) kernel ridge regression (KRR), linear Ridge, ExtraTrees, and Random Forests. Across all four models, the one-step residual, defined here as the true value minus the predicted value at each grid point, forms clear curved branches near predicted maxima and minima. A more detailed analysis of KRR shows that these errors are much more strongly related to the second spatial derivative, which measures local curvature, than to the first spatial derivative. Near a smooth extremum, predicted value and curvature form a local two-branch fold. Under our local curvature-based model of the residual, this fold predicts a leading-order near-parabolic relation between predicted value and residual. This geometric result motivates a direct test of the Burgers advection (transport) and diffusion (smoothing) terms. For KRR and Ridge, regression tests on held-out trajectories, a control that breaks the spatial alignment of the diffusion term, and a spectral test of high-frequency content are consistent with insufficient viscous smoothing at moderate and high viscosity. In this case, the surrogate retains more small-scale structure than the true future state. The same physical explanation is much weaker for the tree models. Finally, a correction that uses only predicted quantities reduces both one-step error and error during recursive rollout, where each prediction is used as the next input.

Robustness evaluation of large language models (LLMs) remains a critical challenge, particularly in assessing their sensitivity to perturbations in input data. In this work, we systematically evaluate LLM robustness across multiple dimensions, including word error rate, character repetition and duplication, modifications in choices, and variability in instruction following. To facilitate this evaluation, we construct a synthetic and augmented dataset encompassing a diverse set of LLM benchmarks, specifically targeting multiple-choice question (MCQ) datasets and instruction-following tasks. We conduct extensive experiments on LLMs of varying scales-small, medium, and large-as well as across base and instruction-tuned variants. Our analysis quantifies the variability in model responses under perturbed conditions and highlights discrepancies relative to baseline models. The findings provide insights into the stability of LLMs across different evaluation scenarios contributing to the development of more robust and reliable language models as well as robust evaluation methodologies.

Hyperspectral image classification still relies heavily on random pixel splits within a single scene. The Salinas dataset, randomly split, is among the most widely used datasets for comparing different architectures. However, under a random split method, a large fraction of test pixels fall immediately adjacent to a training pixel, which inflates reported accuracy. This work introduces a leakage-free evaluation protocol linking spatial separation to the model's receptive field. Applying this protocol across ten different architectures, including classical, spectral, spectral-spatial, transformer, vision-backbone, and state-space families, shows that Macro-F1 drops by 0.147 on average and model rankings change by as many as five places. Furthermore, leakage-free evaluation limits which architectures can be tested on a given benchmark. Since each partition supports patches only within a finite radius, reporting this radius alongside the receptive field is essential for fair comparison. In addition, this study reveals that all ten architectures misclassify largely the same pixels, pointing to a spectral ambiguity in the data that none of them resolves.

Self-supervised pre-training via cross-view completion learns strong features for 3D vision from co-visible regions of image pairs. However, the reference view provides little information for reconstructing non-co-visible patches, implicitly yielding a monocular training signal in these regions. We introduce Gekko, which turns this limitation into a useful signal. The relative improvement of the cross-view reconstruction error over a masked-autoencoder error is a self-supervised proxy for co-visibility: large improvements indicate co-visible regions, negligible ones non-co-visible areas. Gekko is a network, trained from scratch, that jointly performs cross-view completion, masked autoencoding, and per-pixel prediction of this relative improvement, providing an additional binocular signal for all masked regions without any ground-truth 3D annotation. Under identical architectures and training data, Gekko consistently outperforms CroCo on zero-shot correspondence estimation, relative pose estimation, and pointmap regression, with up to 6 times higher accuracy at the strictest relative-pose threshold and a 22% drop in end-point error on ETH3D. The extra channel it learns is itself a strong co-visibility detector on unseen scenes, and Gekko's frozen features outperform released cross-view backbones of comparable or larger size. It can also be trained directly from raw videos with a simple stride-based curriculum, removing the cumbersome 3D preprocessing prior methods require while matching models trained on curated data. Code and pre-trained models are publicly available.

Self-play is an effective paradigm for language-model self-evolution, but without guidance, solver performance can plateau or decline across rounds. Unguided methods steer question generation with signals such as difficulty, learnability, or diversity. These signals keep questions challenging and varied but do not specify which unresolved reasoning weaknesses later rounds should target. Guided methods obtain direction from external task resources, including human examples, document corpora, or specified difficulty targets, and therefore rely on task information supplied outside the self-play loop. We show that the needed direction can instead be derived from the solver's own failure history. We introduce DiagEvo, whose diagnostician extracts recurring error causes from this history and stores them in a hierarchical error-cause memory. The memory groups related causes under skill nodes and tracks each as Active or Mastered according to self-consistency on targeted questions. The challenger uses these states and recurrence counts to balance cause-targeted generation with free exploration. Double-confidence filtering retains intermediate-difficulty questions only when the most common solver answer has a clear vote lead. DiagEvo derives its curriculum from information produced during self-play, without external task resources. With the default 4B diagnostician, DiagEvo outperforms every baseline in mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks for each of the three solvers: Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B, and OctoThinker-8B. On Qwen3-8B, it reaches 72.3% mean accuracy across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, 4.5 percentage points above R-Zero. Its mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks is 57.4%, 1.1 percentage points above DARC. Ablations show that the hierarchical error-cause memory and double-confidence filtering both contribute to these gains.

LLM judges, models that score another system's output, can be gamed by the systems they score. Recent work identifies one defence that works: the judge solves the task itself first and commits to that answer, then accepts a candidate only if the two match. We call this commit-first judging, and ask whether shipped software implements it, and what it costs. We audit the default judge configurations of eight widely used evaluation frameworks. Of the 24 configurations in scope, none implement it. Nine implement a variant the literature measures as ineffective, and share one ancestor prompt, traceable through a copied typographical error. In a controlled experiment, an ordinary best-of-N search with no access to correct answers optimises code against one of these configurations, used exactly as documented. On an interval merging task the judge accepted 90 of 96 candidates in one seed and 93 of 96 in the other; every accepted candidate passed every test the search could see and failed a held-out suite it could not. The judge identified the defective line and cited it as grounds for a perfect score. Commit-first judging removed the effect: 0 of 96 in both seeds. On a second task it made matters worse in both seeds: the judge's committed answer was wrong, and in one seed the population converged on it. This is our main finding. Commit-first judging does not remove the anchor that gets gamed, it moves it from the candidate to the judge's own answer, so evaluation is only as good as the judge is at the task. That precondition is cheap to measure in advance, and is task local rather than scale dependent: a smaller judge solved a task the frontier judge failed and resisted gaming where it did not. We also validate our own instruments: five of fifteen claims in our criteria were wrong against verbatim sources, and two held-out checks were unjustified by their specifications.

We study null-space estimation from a noisy matrix. For a simple left null space, we first derive an exact compact expression for the error of the smallest left singular vector. We then give an all-order series for the SVD vector and projector, followed by compact and consistently truncated series forms for the fixed-realization empirical risk and conditional population generalization risk. The recursion extends to a multiple-dimensional null space by following the complete invariant subspace. The convergence radius is not inferred from an error plot: it is computed independently from the nearest complex exceptional point that joins a retained eigenvalue branch to its complement. A reduced-nullity experiment shows that moving this spectral boundary can increase the radius, although the improvement is not monotone in the retained nullity. For individually ordered null directions under Gaussian training with $τ\geq m$, we prove that the Wishart splitting matrix $W$ gives a strict second-order empirical ranking. Gaussian averaging equalizes the leading generalization risks at both small and very large noise, while a column-swap theorem proves strict expected generalization ranking for an isotropic signal subspace. For unequal spikes, an exact population-overlap criterion and a simultaneous $99\%$ Monte Carlo confidence certificate explain the observed intermediate ranking. A sixth-order risk correction improves the lower-crossover estimate in the reported experiment. This equal--ranked--equal phenomenon is a finite-sample diagnostic related to spectral mixing, but its tolerance crossings, the exceptional-point radius, and the asymptotic BBP threshold are three distinct quantities.

Long-term memory enables large language models (LLMs) to preserve and reuse information across interactions, but it can also turn localized errors into persistent risks. Existing work mainly evaluates whether memory systems store and retrieve information correctly, leaving limited understanding of how errors propagate across responses, memory states, and future interactions. We propose a structural causal model (SCM)-based framework for cross-turn error propagation in memory-augmented LLMs. We model user questions, model responses, and memory states as a dynamic causal process, and identify two entry pathways: internal memory updating and external question feedback. By intervening on these pathways, we construct four counterfactual trajectories and quantify their downstream effects and interaction. Error influence is evaluated at four levels: memory retention, natural responses, targeted diagnostic probing, and probability-level error preference. Experiments show that error influence generally decays with interaction distance, while the memory-update pathway contributes more persistent effects than question feedback; latent errors may remain even after disappearing from natural responses. Propagation patterns also vary across memory categories and memory mechanisms. Pathway-guided restoration further validates this decomposition: Question Repair reduces residual error by 27.5%, Memory Repair by 70.2%, and Joint Repair by 98.3%, nearly eliminating residual propagation.

Errors in radiology reports can adversely affect patient treatment, yet automated report quality assurance remains challenging because errors are often subtle and require domain expertise to detect. Although large language models (LLMs) have recently been proposed for radiology report verification, their ability to detect clinically meaningful errors beyond chest X-ray datasets remains under-explored. To this end, we present the first systematic evaluation of language models for PET/CT report error detection, comparing compact domain-specific models with SOTA open-weight LLMs. We collected 30,633 oncology FDG PET/CT reports from 23 radiologists over 10 years. We trained domain-specific BERT models to detect clinically motivated synthetic reporting errors and evaluated alongside zero-/few-shot Qwen3-32B, Gemma-3-27B and Llama-3.3-70B on a held-out benchmark of 11,500 reports. A 15M-parameter model achieved 94.4% balanced accuracy with a 5.8% false-positive rate, compared with 84.0% for the strongest prompted LLM. Task-specific adaptation of Llama-3.3-70B closed this performance gap (94.4%) but retained substantially greater computational requirements. Our results suggest that domain-specific training matters more than model scale for PET/CT report error detection, supporting compact models as an accurate and computationally efficient approach to automated radiology report quality assurance.

To avoid missing important variables and their connections in networks, more and more variables are included in network analysis. Here we show that in a setting with many more parameters than observations (high-dimensional) it is possible to get a conservative (i.e., low false positive rate) estimate of the neighbourhood for each node (which connections are in the network). A neighbourhood is often estimated with a linear model, and this leads to two interesting cases: (i) If the true model is linear, then neighbourhood selection work reasonably well, and (ii) if the true model is nonlinear, then neighbourhood selection requires a penalty for the high dimensions. Here we show the impact of the ridge parameter on the mean squared error, and how this leads to low test variance and hence to neighbourhoods with large numbers of edges. We connect these insights with results from machine learning, where the so-called double descent (when more parameters are included than observations, the mean squared error goes down a second time) has put the traditional view on model selection upside down. Essentially, for adequate neighbourhood selection in models with a large number of parameters, the volume of the model space needs to be included in the penalty. Most neighbourhood selection methods (e.g., Lasso, AIC, BIC) lead to spurious edges (high false positive rate), but we prove that in the high-dimensional setting, minimum description length leads to correct neighbourhood selection or smaller (low false positive rates) in both cases when either the model is correctly or incorrectly assumed linear

Diffusion language models use broad context to create text, suggesting they might handle input noise better than standard models. Testing reveals this is only partially true. Internally, diffusion models detect text errors highly accurately. Externally, their reported certainty ignores this signal. As accuracy drops due to noise, confidence stays near its maximum and the ability to correctly rank answers degrades toward random chance. We call this mismatch the representation confidence gap. The visible concentration of high certainty scores is a misleading surface symptom. Standard math adjustments remove this concentration but fail to fix the underlying loss of ranking order. This ranking deficit favors standard models under noisy conditions and resists common remedies. Matching training recovers accuracy but not ranking, while score recalibration and input level error signals cannot reorder the final answers. However, the information needed to properly evaluate an answer survives in the hidden states. A lightweight extraction tool uses this signal to improve ranking. This approach is highly efficient because it leaves the base model completely frozen and requires zero additional text generation steps. We present this tool to prove the signal exists, while clearly noting its limits. Ultimately, certainty reliability is a more pressing limit than overall accuracy under noisy conditions.

Autoregressive continuation provides a natural path toward minute-scale audio-visual generation by repeatedly extending a short-window generator conditioned on previously generated video and audio. However, models are trained on clean ground-truth histories, while inference relies on their own generated histories, where accumulated errors cause identity drift, over-smoothing, and audio-visual desynchronization. Recent methods reduce this mismatch by reusing prediction residuals as synthetic corruption, but we observe that the effectiveness of residual correction critically depends on the flow-matching noise level at which residuals are produced. We propose Vorch-Director, a noise-level-aware residual correction strategy that associates each residual with its originating noise level and injects residuals from matched noise regimes during training. By aligning injected errors with the denoising process, Vorch-Director produces more realistic autoregressive histories while retaining efficient teacher-forcing training. Built on the audio-visual LTX-2 diffusion transformer, Vorch-Director further introduces task embeddings to distinguish historical video, reference images, and target video, enabling unified conditioning for long-horizon generation. Together with a clean conditioning sink and mixed-task training, Vorch-Director supports multi-shot, multi-subject, reference-guided audio-visual long-video generation. We evaluate Vorch-Director on ST-Bench and introduce a new long-horizon audio-visual benchmark with metrics for quality drift and long-range consistency. Extensive experiments demonstrate improved stability and audio-visual fidelity over strong baselines.

Accurate six-degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) motion estimation is essential for robotic manipulation, autonomous systems, and structural displacement monitoring. Conventional 3D-2D methods estimate absolute camera poses independently at each time and recover platform motion through camera-to-platform extrinsics, making them sensitive to extrinsic calibration errors, especially for micromotion. We present a differential pose estimation method that directly recovers platform motion from inter-frame image displacements and known 3D control points. By differencing perspective projection equations, using a depth-invariance approximation, and modeling motion on SE(3), the method avoids independent absolute-pose estimation and supports both monocular and multi-camera systems. We prove that translational extrinsic errors cancel exactly, while rotational errors induce a bounded perturbation determined by calibration error, motion magnitude, and observation geometry. We also derive generic observability conditions, a Cramer-Rao lower bound, and a bias-eliminated consistent estimator, and characterize the validity limits of the approximations. Extensive synthetic and real-world experiments establish a new state of the art for 6-DOF platform micromotion estimation, outperforming representative PnP and generalized-PnP methods in accuracy, calibration robustness, and computational efficiency. With five control points and 0.5-pixel image noise, the monocular solver obtains a combined pitch-yaw rotation RMSE of 10.09 arcsec, a translation RMSE of 3.70 mm, and a runtime of 0.34 ms. The binocular solver achieves a rotation RMSE of 10.58 arcsec, a translation RMSE of 3.91 mm, and a runtime of 0.27 ms. Code will be released upon publication at https://github.com/zyoungszu/pami2026.

We study score learning for reflected diffusion on bounded domains. Reflection keeps trajectories feasible but does not ensure that the learned score satisfies the boundary behavior implied by the forward process. With implicit score matching, integration by parts leaves a boundary term, and we show that it depends on one scalar at each boundary point: the diffusion- weighted normal component of the score, or conormal trace. The no-flux condition fixes this value while leaving the re- maining boundary components unrestricted; under anisotropic diffusion it generally differs from the ordinary normal score component. On hyperrectangles, our parametrization enforces the required trace without additional trainable parameters or a stochastic boundary estimator and, under regularity assump- tions, can represent the true score, whereas fixing an incorrect value creates an error that more data cannot remove. We ex- tend the construction to simplices and polygonal domains and identify reflection masking: hard reflection can keep samples feasible even when the learned trace is wrong, so post-reflection metrics may hide the error. Experiments show the clearest separation with less frequent reflection, anisotropic diffusion, and mass near intersections of constraints; under full reflection, final sample placement improves inconsistently, illustrating how hard repair can mask boundary-score errors and decouple score accuracy from downstream generation quality.

Code refactoring aims to enhance the internal structure of source code without affecting its functional behavior. The recent advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated potential for automating software engineering tasks, such as code refactoring. However, the refactorings produced by LLMs often introduce subtle errors, leading to functional behavior changes and failed unit tests, which limit their practical adoption. To address the limitations of LLM-generated refactorings, we analyze the root causes of their failures and develop the RefactorAssist agent to improve the functional correctness of LLM-generated refactorings. To this end, we use 10 open-source Java projects with their native test suites and manually evaluate why LLM-generated refactorings fail unit tests. We then design an agentic approach that leverages unit-test logs, error explanations, project context retrieval, and code diffs to guide the iterative refactoring. Our findings show that the main reasons for failure are context misunderstanding/hallucination (24.3%), incorrect or inconsistent renaming (15.3%), adding new functionality or variables (13.7%), code incompleteness (11.3%), syntax and structural errors (9.7%), edge cases not handled (9%), improper type handling (8.7%), and variables outside scope (8%). To make our approach cost-effective, RefactorAssist first applies a static repair step for missing imports, unbalanced brackets, and compilation errors without LLMs. For remaining failures, RefactorAssist incorporates error logs and code diffs, achieving up to a 70.8% repair rate on the remaining failures and a 94.2% cumulative pass rate under the best-performing configuration. These results indicate that static checks and test-guided, context-aware agentic repair can increase the reliability of LLM-generated refactorings, bringing them closer to practical integration within developer workflows.

Autoregressive models accumulate error over long rollouts, yet at deployment there is no ground truth to measure it against. We train a single conditional latent diffusion model that steps a dynamical system forward or backward in time via a direction flag, and show that this bidirectionality supplies a measurement-free test-time error signal: rolling forward $i$ steps and then backward $i$ steps must return the model to its start, so the round-trip discrepancy $\mathcal{C}_i$ is a self-supervised proxy for the unobservable rollout error: no ensembles, no held-out data, no governing equations, for one extra rollout. We validate on compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), an astrophysical turbulent radiative mixing layer, and natural face videos (CelebV-HQ). On held-out MHD trajectories, $\mathcal{C}_i$ ranks rollout error (Spearman $0.91$-$0.98$ at fixed depth; $0.69 \pm 0.16$ within trajectories), and a simple calibrator fit on training rollouts predicts its magnitude to within $1.14\times$ ($68\%$) and $1.29\times$ ($95\%$) with near-nominal coverage - one nat beyond a depth-only predictor, transferring to all six decoded physical fields. The same signal flags the out-of-distribution Orszag-Tang vortex (AUROC $0.98$; $1.0$ by depth $10$) exactly where sampling-dispersion baselines invert, and it cuts incurred error by $15\%$ at $80\%$ coverage - three times the depth-only baseline. Bidirectional training comes at negative cost, beating direction specialists in both directions, and the backward direction doubles as a fast inverse solver. On LE-PDE-UQ's turbulent Navier-Stokes benchmark, a single bidirectional model reaches accuracy within $1.3\times$ of their ten-model ensemble at a tenth of the training cost, with the best training-free pixel-level calibration. Round-trip consistency turns reversibility into a practical trust signal for generative models.

Engression (Shen and Meinshausen, 2024) learns a conditional distribution by fitting a generative model $Y = f(X,\varepsilon)$ under the energy score, a strictly proper scoring rule. We provide a theoretical error analysis of engression implemented with deep neural networks. We decompose the excess risk into three components: the approximation error, the stochastic error, and the Monte Carlo error. Based on this decomposition, we establish convergence rates under the assumption that the target conditional generator admits a compositional smoothness structure.

Video diffusion-based world models enable long autoregressive video generation for robotics, autonomous driving and simulation tasks, yet sliding-window autoregressive inference suffers from severe error accumulation that degrades frame quality over time. Although this phenomenon has been widely observed, the underlying mechanism of compounding error and how to achieve stable long-horizon generation remain largely unresolved. In this paper, we investigate the internal representation dynamics of video world models and discover that compounding error is tightly coupled with dimensional collapse of hidden representations. Specifically, the effective rank of model representations sharply decreases at the onset of generation drift, revealing a strong connection between representational degradation and long-term rollout instability. Furthermore, we find that pure training data scaling fails to boost model resistance to error drift, contradicting mainstream scaling paradigms. To address this problem, we propose video representation regularization, a lightweight training constraint that stabilizes latent representations and suppresses iterative error accumulation. Compared with Diffusion Forcing, our method achieves improvements from 38.65 to 55.56 and from 44.37 to 72.08 on the Aesthetic Quality and Imaging Quality metrics of VBench. Our work establishes the first connection between autoregressive video drifting and model internal representations, adopts erank as a quantitative metric for error accumulation, reveals counterintuitive scaling limitations for video world models, and presents a simple yet effective regularization strategy to improve long video generation robustness.

Language generation in the limit is an elegant model introduced by Kleinberg and Mullainathan [KM24] to formally study language generation by an algorithm that learns solely based on example strings. In this model, an algorithm is said to correctly generate from a language if it never makes an error after some finite time. In contrast, even sophisticated language models are known to regularly hallucinate in practice. In this paper, we initiate the study of language generation in the limit with (infinite) hallucination, i.e., the algorithm may generate incorrect strings infinitely often, but the errors occur at a limited rate (possibly even with 0-measure). We first show that hallucination, even at rate 0, makes generation in the limit strictly more powerful: there are language collections that cannot be generated with finite error but can be generated with infinite error, even when errors occur on a 0-measure set of time-steps. Furthermore, while all countable collections are generatable with finite error, we show a strict hierarchy of (uncountable) language collections characterized by the hallucination rate. This hierarchy extends to breadth, the fraction of the target language generated. While all countable collections can attain the optimal breadth of 1/2 [KW26b], we show strict separation at every breadth and hallucination rate. Finally, we study generation in the limit without repetition, where the algorithm may not repeat strings. This lets us compare the sets of correct and incorrect strings generated, rather than the fractions of correct and incorrect time-steps. Once again, we demonstrate a strict hierarchy at every hallucination rate and breadth. Taken together, these results reveal rich structure in language collections generatable in the limit with hallucination and establish hallucination rate as an important parameter in the theoretical study of language generation.

Scaling inference-time computation has emerged as a reliable method to improve the performance of large language models on complex reasoning and programming tasks. However, standard approaches such as independent sampling and sequential multi-turn refinement operate without token-level credit assignment, resulting in computational inefficiency, since valid reasoning prefixes are frequently discarded. In this work, we introduce Test-Time Scaling via Error Localization (TTEL), an inference-time algorithm that utilizes fixed or environment feedback to perform token-level error localization. By comparing conditional probabilities under informed feedback against a null-context baseline, TTEL isolates the step at which an error occurred. The algorithm then truncates the trajectory and branches a new generation, maximally reusing the valid prefix. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that TTEL establishes strictly dominating Pareto frontiers across sequential reasoning domains, measured by pass-at-k vs. generated-token cost. With Qwen3-8B on LiveCodeBench, TTEL attains a pass@64 of 71.0% while generating approximately half as many tokens as independent sampling (360.4k vs. 735.0k). Generalizing to math benchmarks AIME-2025 and HMMT-2025, TTEL cleanly outperforms competing test-time baselines across both Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507.

Detecting and cleaning errors in tabular data is a prerequisite for data intense software applications. Recent research at the intersection of Machine Learning (ML) and Database Management Systems (DBMS) highlights the potential of statistical learning algorithms for error detection and cleaning. This paper combines our recent work on ML-based data cleaning and error models in a unified demonstrator. The web application allows users to upload tabular data, perturb the data with realistic data dependent errors and use modern ML methods to clean and understand error mechanisms in data. Our demonstrator helps to bridge the gap between theoretical advancements and intuitive practical insights in the context of error models and data cleaning algorithms for tabular data. The demonstrator is available at https://cured.demo.calgo-lab.de/

Quantum error correction can be enhanced by post-selecting out runs that are likely to produce a logical failure, but the most accurate measures for that require costly decoder-level information. We introduce a practical, decoder-agnostic post-selection method that learns directly from syndrome data. The method trains a supervised classifier to distinguish between syndromes from low- and high-noise regimes, and then uses the classifier's output as an abort score for new runs, without requiring logical-error labels, correction operators, or code-specific likelihood calculations. We validate the approach in three complementary settings: circuit-level simulations of the Gross bivariate-bicycle code, code-capacity simulations of the surface code, and experimental logical magic-state distillation data from the QuEra neutral-atom processor. In the Gross and surface codes, learned syndrome post-selection reduces the conditional logical error rate at a fixed acceptance rate, with performance comparable to syndrome-weight filtering. For the surface code, the learned classifier reveals a post-selection transition distinct from the conventional decoding threshold. In the experimental data, the machine-learning score outperforms syndrome-weight post-selection and, when combined with logical-gap filtering, improves the output fidelity beyond using the logical gap alone. These results show that syndrome-only learning provides a scalable and hardware-compatible route to improving the reliability of quantum error correction.

Linear probes detect corrupted context in language models with near-perfect accuracy, yet this does not translate into reliable failure prediction. The result is a dissociation with direct implications for deployment monitoring. Across multi-hop arithmetic chains, probes that detect corruption turn out to be uninformative about final answer correctness; models forced into structured confidence formats collapse to two values with indistinguishable error rates; and probe persistence across hops fails to separate correct from incorrect outcomes, refuting our pre-registered "persistence beats peak" hypothesis. This pattern of knowing but not saying generalises across model families including reasoning models. As a real-time monitor, probe-based interventions are sharply model and error-type dependent: branch-and-pick is net-positive across models and uniquely non-breaking on Llama-3.1-8B (4 rescued, 0 broken), while reprompt and replace-prior break correct traces at roughly the rate they rescue wrong ones. Probe-based monitoring is a necessary complement to verbalised confidence, but no single intervention dominates, and the deployable answer is model-aware, error-type-aware routing.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) and recent compression schemes such as HAC++ enable high-fidelity real-time neural rendering, but their bitstreams are fragile under packet loss during network streaming. Existing compression methods often separate correlated anchor attributes into independent streams, so losing one packet can create attribute-inconsistent broken anchors and severe rendering artifacts. We propose a packet-loss robust 3DGS transmission and error concealment framework. On the encoder side, anchor-level atomic packaging jointly encapsulates all attributes of each anchor, converting corrupted-attribute failures into clean missing-anchor erasures. Stratified random grouping further disperses packet losses across the spatial domain to avoid large contiguous voids. On the decoder side, we formulate recovery as prior-aware attribute inpainting. A Context-Aware Residual Interpolation (CARI) branch uses hash-grid prior predictions and neighboring residuals to build a robust baseline, while a lightweight two-layer graph neural network with cross-attention over hash-grid priors refines high-frequency attribute residuals. Attribute-wise confidence control falls back to interpolation when learned predictions are unreliable. Experiments under 20 percent random packet loss on BungeeNeRF, Mip-NeRF 360, and Tanks and Temples show that the proposed method substantially improves over no-concealment transmission and limits average PSNR degradation to about 3 dB relative to the lossless HAC++ reference.

A trained flow or diffusion model is usually run with only a handful of solver steps, and the integration error this leaves behind is unevenly distributed across the image. We ask where that error is injected and how it reaches the endpoint, and answer with a signed source-and-transport accounting of few-step integration error, tested to first order. A perturbation experiment on five models at 256^2 resolution shows the learned dynamics spread local disturbances widely: near the start of sampling, under 10% of the summed endpoint response remains at the source. Signed one-step truncation residuals, propagated through the model's own linearized dynamics, reconstruct much of the endpoint error's direction and regional structure (cosine 0.81-0.87), and a region's error owes more to what arrives from elsewhere than to its own injection. Structure-destroying nulls, with protocols frozen before evaluation, locate what carries the account: randomizing contribution signs halves it, and reassigning which region receives each contribution, with content, norms, and signs intact, destroys it entirely. Where the injections land is readable from the model itself. The variation of its velocity or prediction field along the trajectory, a structure that emerges during training, predicts the final per-region gap (within-image rho of 0.57-0.70 on fine trajectories, weaker from the cheap solve alone). The prediction is partial because endpoint error depends not only on injected magnitude but on its sign, timing, and transport through the learned dynamics. A training penalty on the injected variation lowers few-step error, so the structure is one a model can be trained to change.

We study the online binary sequential calibration problem. A recent breakthrough by \citet{dagan2024breaking} overcomes the classical $T^{2/3}$ barrier for calibration error. Building on this result, we present an efficient randomized forecaster that achieves an expected calibration error $O(T^{2/3-\varepsilon})$ for some constant $\varepsilon>0$. Our forecaster combines the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure \citep{dagan2024breaking} with an outer Blackwell-style correction layer. The \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure controls calibration with respect to a surrogate sequence of conditional-mean estimates, while the correction layer controls the additional error incurred when these surrogates are used to approximate the true outcomes. The analysis decomposes the total calibration error into the surrogate calibration error and the residual discrepancy between the surrogate sequence and the true outcomes. The former is bounded by the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} guarantee in \citet{dagan2024breaking}, and the latter is controlled using a quadratic potential argument together with the sparsity of the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} forecaster.

Mixed-precision quantization must decide which parts of a model to keep at higher precision. A common premise, shared by sensitivity-based methods such as HAWQ and CoopQ, is that the loss from quantizing a set of layers can be reconstructed from per-layer or pairwise sensitivities measured in isolation. We test this premise at the 4-bit weight-and-activation precisions now being deployed, treating the change in loss $f(S)$ from quantizing a layer set $S$ as a set function on the Boolean cube and analyzing it through two classical changes of basis. This analysis yields two findings. First, across configurations drawn from the deployment distribution, 85--93% of the variance of $f$ is explained by per-layer effects alone. Second, a monotone transform of a sum of per-layer terms reproduces $f$'s ranking of configurations, misordering at most 2% of pairs. We propose the coverage model $f(S)=c\bigl(1-\prod_{i\in S}(1-a_i)\bigr)$, which reproduces the measured variance profile of $f$ to within a few percent from its $L$ fitted break-rates. This structure supports two predictors of a configuration's loss, each with $L+1$ parameters. The additive model is the optimal first-order predictor. By Parseval's identity its mean-squared error equals the variance of $f$ left unexplained by per-layer effects, which we measure on full lattices, estimate out of sample at full-network scale, and report with every result as a certificate of how well any additive model can do. The coverage model itself is the second predictor. As allocators at matched memory, they attain the lowest KL divergence among the compared allocators on models from 30B to 355B parameters. Below four bits, the resulting allocations continue to solve code and reasoning tasks at budgets where allocations from gradient sensitivities no longer produce terminating generations.

As robots become increasingly integrated into human environments, their ability to detect and respond to errors remains critical for maintaining user trust and interaction quality. While recent advances in machine learning have improved error detection capabilities, most approaches are limited to specific contexts, controlled settings, or pre-extracted features, limiting their generalizability and applicability to real-world conditions. To address this challenge, the third edition of the ERR@HRI Challenge (ERR@HRI 3.0) provided researchers with two complementary datasets that enable end-to-end innovation in methods for both detecting and preventing errors in human-robot interaction. The challenge offered raw, non-anonymized video data from naturalistic settings: (1) the Bystander Affect Detection (BAD) dataset, containing webcam recordings of 45 participants' spontaneous reactions to robot and human failure scenarios; and (2) the Bad Idea dataset, featuring 29 participants' anticipatory facial responses while predicting action outcomes before failures occur. Both datasets were collected via crowdsourcing, capturing the inherent variability of real-world conditions. This naturalistic variability, while challenging, provides an authentic testbed for developing robust error detection systems. Participants developed multimodal machine learning models for bystander reaction detection (Track 1) and anticipatory outcome prediction (Track 2), with an optional cross-dataset generalization track (Track 3). Three teams submitted valid models, all of which surpassed our convolutional neural network baselines. This paper describes the datasets, tasks, baselines, and results of ERR@HRI 3.0, and discusses implications for building generalizable, context-aware, and anticipatory error detection systems for human-robot interaction.

Despite strong performance on many multimodal tasks, vision-language models (VLMs) still struggle with basic object counting. We investigate whether this reflects missing internal knowledge or a gap between internal representations and verbalized outputs. Training simple probes on activations from four VLMs across five counting datasets reveals that nonlinear probes can reliably detect counting errors, suggesting that VLMs often encode the correct count even when they output the wrong answer. SVCCA analysis shows that probes trained on ground-truth counts and probes trained on model outputs occupy a partially shared activation subspace but read out along misaligned directions. We further validate our findings using a causal steering intervention, proving that strengthening the direction of count-identified probes does improve model counting performance. Motivated by this result, we propose a detector-guided self-correction method that selectively re-prompts the model only when an internal error detector predicts failure. This simple inference-time intervention improves counting accuracy by up to 15.6 absolute percentage points, without any parameter updates. Our results establish activation-based error probing as both a practical tool for improving VLM counting and a mechanistic lens on the gap between internal knowledge and model outputs.

Assigning Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE) categories to Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) records remains an important but largely manual step in vulnerability analysis. We study this task as a text classification problem and compare two modelling choices: a \emph{multi-class} formulation that predicts a single CWE per CVE and a \emph{multi-label} formulation that allows multiple assignments. Three transformer encoders (BERT Base, SecureBERT, and CySecBERT) are evaluated on three nested label spaces (83, 47, and 25 classes). Multi-class training achieves higher macro-F1 across all settings, although the gap to multi-label narrows from 21 to 2 percentage points as the label space shrinks. Post-hoc threshold optimisation on the multi-label side closes this gap on the 25-class setting. Confusion analysis shows that the dominant misclassification patterns follow the CWE hierarchy and are shared across all three encoders (Pearson $r > 0.92$), which suggests that the error structure is driven more by taxonomy design than by encoder choice. A hierarchy-relaxed evaluation that forgives within-family confusions raises macro-F1 from ${\sim}$81% to ${\sim}$90%, indicating that strict metrics understate branch-level classifier quality. CySecBERT achieves the strongest results overall, with statistically significant gains concentrated in the multi-label setting.

Vision-language models (VLMs) perform well on visual question answering with high-quality images but struggle when questions require knowledge beyond what is clearly and directly visible. In such settings, uncertainty quantification should not only indicate whether the model is likely to fail but also diagnose why it is uncertain, across dimensions such as perception, entity recognition, and knowledge retrieval. While prior work has focused on individual failure modes in isolation or treated incorrect answers as monolithic failures, we propose a unified framework for disentangling these failure modes and investigate whether pre-generation signals can predict these failure sources. Across a range of datasets and model families, we find a consistent pattern in VLM errors: some failures arise from visual or recognition bottlenecks, while others persist after the relevant entity is identified. Our main finding is that these failure sources can be predicted before decoding: recognition-related failures are best captured by visual-token representations, while failures that remain after recognition are better captured by prompt-conditioned hidden states. This pre-generation signal enables efficient failure-source prediction before the model produces an answer, allowing uncertain cases to be routed to targeted interventions such as image repair, entity recognition support, or external retrieval.

This paper explores the "Granularity Paradox" in time-series forecasting, wherein finer temporal disaggregation (e.g., Monthly to Weekly/Daily) improves in-sample diagnostics and dataset size (N), but degrades out-of-sample accuracy due to recursive error compounding over longer horizons (H). Conversely, coarse aggregation (Annual) eliminates recursive error propagation but reduces data available to estimators. We formalize this trade-off and benchmark 10 models - spanning naïve, statistical, machine learning, and deep learning architectures - across six granularities using a 13-year public procurement dataset. The empirical results reveal a non-monotonic threshold structure: recursive autoregressive and seasonal models degrade substantially under high-frequency forecasting (e.g., Holt-Winters reaches a Test R-squared of -151 and TPFE of 425.85% at the Daily grain), while the LSTM traces a U-shaped error curve, worsening from Monthly (19.66%) through Bi-Weekly (35.94%) before overcoming the error propagation penalty at Daily (TPFE of 4.35%, R-squared of 0.66). Linear Regression remains stable across all granularities (16.3-17.0% TPFE), confirming that the paradox is driven by recursive feedback topology, not model complexity. The results demonstrate that standard pointwise metrics (RMSE, MAE) systematically mask cumulative error propagation, and that evaluating forecasts without goal-dependent cumulative metrics produces misleading assessments of model adequacy. We introduce a consensus-dissensus diagnostic comparing the directional behaviour of pointwise metrics against cumulative TPFE across granularities, enabling the identification of models whose standard diagnostics mask systematic error propagation.

In this opinion paper, we propose MetaHOPE, an error severity-aware annotation framework for evaluating metaphor translations. Metaphors present challenges for machine translation (MT) and natural language understanding and processing (NLU, NLP), because it presents the features of semantic complexity, contextual dependency, and cultural embeddings that can lead to ambiguity issues for NLP models. To investigate how state-of-the-art NLP models perform on translating metaphors, we select three representative systems, i.e., GoogleMT, GPT5.4, and Hunyuan-7b as Neural MT (NMT) models and LLMs. We used two human-annotated metaphor corpora, including VUAMC and PSUCMC for English-to-Chinese and Chinese-to-English translation purposes. The original corpora we used are monolingual, where we carried out error annotation using the MetaHOPE framework, and also produced the human post-edited gold reference for bilingual use as a new resource. We believe the MetaHOPE evaluation framework for metaphor translation annotation, the parallel corpora resources, and the error analysis on SOTA automatic translation models can be useful and shed some light for the field of metaphor translation study. We share our resources publicly upon paper acceptance.

While large language models (LLMs) perform well on table tasks, they still make data referencing errors (DREs), i.e., incorrectly citing or omitting table values, despite understanding the table structure. Beyond final-answer accuracy, DREs directly compromise the correctness and reliability of intermediate reasoning steps. Yet prior studies have only offered limited, small-scale analyses. In this work, we present the first systematic evaluation of tabular data referencing errors across different models and tasks. Our results show that DREs occur across all tested models (1.7B to 20B parameters). Furthermore, we demonstrate that incorporating data referencing as a critic significantly improves answer accuracy up to 12.0%, through critic-based filtering and rejection sampling. Finally, we trained a lightweight 4B-parameter critic model that achieves an average F1 score of 78.2% in detecting both in-distribution and out-of-distribution DREs, and effectively assists inference for larger models.

RVL-CDIP is a popular dataset for benchmarking document classifiers. However, the dataset contains ample amounts of label errors as well as non-trivial amounts of test-train overlap, both of which may impact model performance metrics. In this paper, we address these two problems by (1) finding and fixing label errors, and (2) detecting and addressing test-train overlap. We produce several variations of RVL-CDIP with label error and test-train overlap fixes, and benchmark document classification performance on these new RVL-CDIP variations. Our rigorous analysis of RVL-CDIP finds that the corpus contains 12% label error and approximately 35% test-train duplication. Remediation sees improvements in classification accuracy when errors are removed, but sees decreases in accuracy when duplicates are removed. We additionally evaluate models on RVL-CDIP-N, an out-of-distribution benchmark, finding that training on error-corrected data substantially improves OOD generalization, with supervised models gaining an average of 8.1 percentage points in accuracy and improvements as large as 14 percentage points.

ASR systems have been often reported to underperform on atypical speech. An often conflated compounding factor is the existence of two valid transcription references: verbatim (actual produced speech, including repetitions/prolongations) and intended (the canonical form of the text with disfluencies removed) in atypical speech recognition depending on context and use-case. Most ASR evaluations conflate this duality into a single ground truth and reward systems that delete disfluencies, ignoring verbatim faithfulness. We benchmark 11 ASR models from encoder-decoder, CTC and transducer families using both verbatim and intended references on atypical stuttered speech as a case study. Our quantitative assessment underlines the disparity in model performance and rankings using the two transcript styles. Through this analysis, we highlight the importance of selecting a suitable transcription reference for valid model selection depending on the use-case, particularly for atypical ASR.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in exam- and certification-style question answering tasks, where their ability to retrieve, interpret, and apply domain-specific knowledge can be systematically assessed. In Software Engineering, such settings are particularly relevant when questions depend on strict adherence to normative definitions, roles, artifacts, and rules. This paper evaluates the performance of three contemporary LLMs, \textit{GPT-5 mini}, \textit{Gemini 3 Flash}, and \textit{DeepSeek Chat 3.2}, in answering 993 Scrum certification-style questions aligned with the Professional Scrum Master I (PSM I) assessment format. We evaluated the models under three prompting strategies (\textit{zero-shot}, \textit{chain-of-thought}, and \textit{source-grounded}), with repeated executions to assess intra-model stability. We also analyzed performance across Scrum topics and question formats, complemented by a qualitative analysis of recurring error patterns in incorrect answers. Results revealed clear differences among models, with Gemini 3 Flash achieving the highest accuracy, followed by GPT-5 mini and DeepSeek Chat 3.2, while intra-model variability remained low across all conditions. By question format, the models achieved the highest accuracy on single-answer multiple-choice items, whereas multi-select and True/False questions were more error-prone. By topic, performance was more consistent in normatively explicit areas such as Artifacts, Empiricism, and Product Value, but more fragile in Scrum Values, Self-Managing Teams, and Stakeholders & Customers. The qualitative analysis showed that errors were systematic rather than random, involving overgeneralization, restrictive wording, compound distractors, and conflicts between common market interpretations and strict Scrum definitions.

Understanding how users perceive and respond to robot failures is essential for building robust and trustworthy robot systems. Prior work, however, (i) often treats failures as independent events, (ii) emphasizes binary failure detection, (iii) with rule-based recovery modeling. We present REPAIR-Bench, built on 214 interaction trials from 41 participants, the benchmark spans four induced failure types and provides synchronized facial action units, head pose, speech transcripts, and post-interaction affect and recovery reports. The benchmark spans three novel evaluation tasks that jointly capture the lifecycle of failure in human-robot interaction (HRI): (i) failure detection over inter-dependent interaction sessions, modeling longitudinal user adaptation across repeated failures; (ii) visual failure-type classification beyond binary success/failure formulations; and (iii) user-centered recovery prediction, inferring users' preferred recovery strategies from interaction context rather than relying on manually designed or rule-based strategies. In baseline experiments, hierarchical recurrent modeling improved failure detection over a single-session model (strict F1: 0.80 vs. 0.68), achieved a failure localization mean signed error of -0.51 s, median absolute error of 2.97 s and, for recovery prediction, a QLoRA-tuned Mistral-7B reached Hit@5=0.76 and F1@5=0.32. REPAIR-Bench provides both the HRI and Medical HRI communities with a standardized framework for (1) evaluating robot failures and (2) building transparent, adaptive, and trustworthy recovery systems.

This paper develops an a posteriori error analysis framework for decoupled neural approximations of fully coupled forward--backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs). It provides an a posteriori error-analysis for the idealized discrete adapted trajectory. The main feature of the proposed formulation is the use of an auxiliary control process in the forward coefficients, which may differ from the backward component approximated by the neural network. This decoupling is useful in practical deep learning implementations, but it creates a control mismatch that must be included in the error analysis. We first establish a continuous-time stability estimate for fully coupled FBSDEs under perturbations of the drift, diffusion, generator, terminal condition, and auxiliary control input. We then transfer this estimate to the discrete-time setting and derive computable a posteriori error bounds depending only on the terminal defect, the pathwise residual, and the control mismatch. When the auxiliary control is identified with the backward approximation, the mismatch term vanishes and the bound reduces to the standard two-term form. Numerical experiments on a linear--quadratic FBSDE with an explicit reference solution and a multidimensional Burgers-type FBSDE without a reference solution illustrate the diagnostic role of the proposed indicators and the contribution of the mismatch penalty to the consistency and reproducibility of the numerical approximations.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) improves the factuality of large language models by grounding responses in external evidence, yet real-world deployments remain fragile. Failures often stem from missing or weakly relevant evidence, as well as from generation that does not faithfully reflect the retrieved context. Many existing approaches rely on fine-tuning, privileged access to internal model signals, or resource-insensitive escalation strategies, which limits their practicality in black-box and budget-constrained settings. We propose D2R-RAG (Diagnose-to-Repair RAG), a model-agnostic and resource-aware framework that combines lightweight failure diagnosis with adaptive repair. D2R-RAG derives interpretable failure signatures from observable signals in the query, retrieved evidence, and generated response, and then selects from a small set of corrective actions under explicit latency and VRAM constraints. Experiments on FEVER and HotpotQA show that D2R-RAG improves reliability over recent baselines and achieves better accuracy--efficiency trade-offs across multiple compute budgets. The code is available at https://github.com/CyberScienceLab/D2R-RAG/.

Headline type-correctness (TC%) of LLM autoformalization has climbed from $\sim$53% to $\sim$76% in two years, yet this scalar conceals which errors each method resolves. We propose a signal-coverage matrix that crosses the Lean elaborator (pass/fail) with a semantic-equivalence judgment (equivalent/not), sorting every output into one of four cells: true success (TS), type-only (TO), semantic-only (SO), or both fail (BF). On ProofNet# and MiniF2F-test with DeepSeek V4-Pro across Vanilla, Lean-Retry, Sample-Filter, and Stratified Autoformalization (SAF): (1) the +34 to +36 TS gain across the three elab-feedback methods is $\sim$64% type-stratum recovery, with SO flat on net (87.5% of original semantic errors rescued, 8 newly created). (2) The TO-to-TS rate is 23/61 for each method (Wilson 95% CI [26.6%, 50.3%]), and this stratum-level recovery rate predicts $Δ$TS on held-out methods to within 2/186 and renders $Δ$TC linear in the Vanilla elab-fail rate across six (model, dataset) cells ($R^2=0.96$). (3) The two judges disagree by 26 to 37 pp on elab-feedback outputs (vs. 7 pp on Vanilla), with 30 to 56% of symbolic-judge false negatives traceable to elaborator-forced rewrites. The persistent residual reduces to two gold-formalization errors. TC% gains should be credited by which cell moved, not by the scalar alone.

Factual Error Detection (FED), which is the task of identifying factually incorrect spans in a given text, has long been recognized as an important research problem. However, with the rapid rise of large language models (LLMs), research attention has shifted toward factual errors specific to LLM-generated text (hallucinations) and their detection. As a result, the detection of factual errors in human-written text has been relatively neglected. To address this gap, we first distill a taxonomy of human-induced factual errors by analyzing corrections of newspaper articles, a representative source of text that is guaranteed to be human-written and contains few grammatical errors. Our analysis revealed that there are characteristic categories such as kanji misconversions and unit errors, which are not focused in existing hallucination benchmarks. Based on the taxonomy, we then evaluate the FED capability of vanilla LLMs on synthesized realistic test cases and real corrections. Experimental results demonstrated that even high-performance LLMs such as GPT-5.4 achieved only word-level F1 score of 52% on the synthetic evaluation data, highlighting the task difficulty. Furthermore, a detailed analysis by detection difficulty revealed the current state of FED.

While voice control is rapidly becoming a ubiquitous vector of human-AI communication, the risks facing these systems remain poorly understood. This is, in part, a product of the difficulties in scaling strictly digital adversarial workflows to the physical world. These scale barriers have led the community to abstract away key acoustic factors relating to detectability and the influence of geometry on acoustics. These methodological and metrological shortcomings undermine our understanding of risk. We illuminate these issues through real-world testing, conceptual discussions, and a novel, high-throughput reality simulation framework. By testing over 8 million adversarial evaluations, we demonstrate that acoustic awareness yields relative Word Error Rate increases of up to 94.5% under Whisper and wav2vec. We employ this framework to explore a formalize and operationalize a Dual-Form Signal to Noise Ratio to decouple source stealth from victim attack efficacy, resolving a crucial limitation in current works. This lays the groundwork for repeatable, verifiable research that embraces, rather than abstracts, the acoustic environment.

Vision-language models (VLMs) often produce hallucinated or inconsistent outputs, where text and images are not properly aligned. Addressing this issue requires not only detecting misalignment but also explaining the discrepancy and localizing its visual evidence. We introduce GAVEL (Grounded Caption Error Verification and Localization), a task that jointly addresses verification, explanation, and localization for image-text pairs. To support systematic evaluation, we also present a corresponding dataset and benchmark. We further train a supervised baseline on the human-annotated training split to assess whether GAVEL provides learnable supervision for these abilities. Experiments show that even strong closed-source models struggle on GAVEL, while the supervised baseline yields consistent improvements across grounding and explanation metrics.

Understanding the features of large language models (LLMs) is a central goal of interpretability. LLMs are commonly assumed to use superposition to represent more features than they have dimensions. They may not only represent features in superposition but also perform computation in superposition. Theory predicts that computing in superposition requires error correction that privileges feature directions over generic ones, but this prediction has not been tested empirically. We propose an empirical test of error correction in LLMs based on activation perturbations. Perturbing residual-stream activations, we find that they are robust to small perturbations--forming activation plateaus consistent with error correction--but less robust along candidate feature directions ("pure" directions, constructed from contrastive prompt pairs) than along mixtures of two such directions, indicating that the pure directions are privileged. We quantify this privilegedness by modeling the perturbation effect as a function of the $L^p$-norm of its decomposition into feature components. For $p=2$ the response is a quadratic form with at most as many nonzero eigenvalues as the residual-stream dimension, which cannot privilege the many feature directions superposition requires. $p>2$ lifts this constraint and is consistent with feature-specific error correction. We find $p>2$ for contrastive, MELBO, and SAE-decoder directions, and $p\approx2$ for random and PCA directions (controls). These results replicate across Gemma-2-9B, Qwen3-1.7B, Llama-3.1-8B, Mistral-7B-v0.3, Aya-Expanse-8B, and Yi-1.5-9B. We further validate our method on a toy model of error correction with known ground-truth features, recovering $p>2$ for true feature directions, degrading toward $2$ as we rotate away from them.

Robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery improves surgical precision but introduces complexity, making technical error detection essential for ensuring patient safety. Current executional error detection methods using video data often overlook fine-grained contextual descriptions of activities and error types within the hierarchical structure of surgical procedures. They also under-utilize complementary multimodal information. We propose a unified framework for executional error detection that leverages multimodal input, including video, kinematics, and descriptive textual prompts. Through activity prompting, we integrate descriptive language in gesture-level activities, instrument-object interactions, and error definitions. We also introduce activity-aware visual embeddings derived from vision encoders pretrained on surgical activity labels to compare the effectiveness of contrastive language-image embeddings with traditional image-based embeddings for error detection. By seamlessly integrating kinematic data with video and textual modalities, our framework significantly improves error detection performance. Achieving up to 5% and 16.6% F1 score improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on the JIGSAWS and SAR-RARP50 datasets, respectively, we demonstrate the value of combining curated textual prompts with multimodal data for accurate error detection.

Predictive coding networks (PCNs) offer a biologically-plausible, local-learning alternative to back-propagation of errors (backprop). Nevertheless, they have remained largely confined to shallow architectures and evaluated on simple machine intelligence benchmarks. A central obstacle to scaling PCNs is that the learning signal decays rapidly as it propagates away from the clamped boundaries, leaving interior layers effectively unchanged. To directly counter this problem, we propose highway error propagation (HEP), a scheme that augments the free energy function underlying predictive coding (PC) by altering its neural structure with feedback matrices $V_{L\to i}$ that couple selected hidden states directly to the clamped output error. Since this coupling is linear in the hidden state, the highway pathway delivers a correction at every inference step whose magnitude is independent of depth, in contrast to vanilla PC where the output error reaches the $i$-th hidden layer with attenuation that decays exponentially in depth. This bypasses the Jacobian chain while preserving the local PC synaptic update rule. On MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, we show that HEP effectively trains MLPs of up to 128 layers with accuracy that is robust with respect to depth.

The rapid rise in popularity of large language models (LLMs) for translation calls for a thorough study of the reliability of their confidence in their own outputs. Unlike many generation tasks, translation errors and confidence levels can be useful at different levels of granularity (tokens, words, or spans). Unsupervised approaches based on internal signals like predicted probabilities can be misleading because they reflect certainty among alternatives rather than correctness. In addition, they require access to such internal signals. Here, we devise five verbalized methods of extracting an LLM's per-token confidence without those shortcomings and compare their reliability with that of the model's internal signals of certainty. We evaluate reliability using two forms of alignment: fine-grained error detection and calibration. For both, internal and verbalized methods perform similarly, although results vary by model. Interestingly, we find little to no correlation between internal and verbalized methods.

Token-to-token (T2T) editing lets LLaDA2.1 revise committed tokens during block-diffusion decoding. The released recipe trains this editor on random vocabulary corruptions, but at inference the editor sees the model's own fluent, high-confidence draft errors instead. We study this training-inference mismatch and propose self-generated T2T, which performs a no-gradient draft pass, fills masked positions with predicted tokens, and supervises recovery in a second pass under these self-generated corruptions. We implement the update as a short LoRA continued-pretraining pass on LLaDA2.1-mini and evaluate on several benchmarks under the official Q-Mode T2T procedure with unchanged inference parameters. The method generally improves accuracy while reducing T2T edit intensity, mitigating failure modes such as final-digit transcription errors after otherwise correct reasoning and excessive self-correction before short factual answers.

Comparing text strings is crucial when evaluating and understanding the performance of various text processing tasks such as document recognition and audio transcription. With an increasingly complex landscape of AI-based handwritten text recognition (HTR), optical character recognition (OCR) and automatic speech recognition (ASR) models, there is a need for tools that facilitate evaluation in a flexible and reproducible way. This paper presents Stringalign, a Python library designed to simplify the evaluation process for automatic transcription projects and facilitate transparent evaluation. Stringalign's tools to examine and visualise both the rate of errors and the types of errors a model makes, give insights into possible improvements and help inform model selection for a particular task. Widely used string comparison metrics, such as the character and word error rates (CER and WER), although useful, can be ambiguous due to varying definitions of what constitutes a character and a word. Stringalign addresses this challenge by ensuring all preprocessing (i.e. normalisation and tokenisation) is transparent and easily replicable, and by providing tools to move beyond summary statistics and analyse common model errors. Moreover, Stringalign adheres to FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles for research software while staying lightweight and easy to adapt into researchers existing workflows. In this paper, we discuss challenges with character and word level string comparisons and show through examples that where existing tools can yield opaque and sometimes confusing results, Stringalign provides an easy-to-use and unambiguous alternative.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) involves detecting and correcting the wrong usage of grammar. While large language models (LLMs) with in-context learning (ICL) capabilities have shown significant progress on various natural language processing (NLP) tasks, their few-shot performance on GEC remains suboptimal. This is mainly due to the challenge of retrieving suitable in-context demonstrations that capture error patterns instead of semantic similarity. In this paper, we demonstrate that LLMs can inherently capture information related to grammatical errors through their internal states. From these states, we extract the Grammatical Error Representation (GER), an informative and semantically neutral encoding of grammatical errors. Our novel GER-based retrieval method significantly boosts performance in ICL settings on multilingual GEC datasets, improving the precision of correction. For high-resource languages, our results on 8B-sized open-source models match those of closed-source models such as Deepseek2.5 and GPT-4o-mini. For low-resource languages, our $F_{0.5}$ scores surpass the baseline by up to a factor of 1.20. This method provides a more precise and resource-efficient solution for multilingual GEC, offering a promising direction for interpretable GEC research.

LLM agent systems increasingly run as long-lived autonomous runtimes: scheduling jobs, calling tools, maintaining memory, and pushing results to humans. We present a longitudinal study of silent failures in one such system: a personal-assistant agent runtime in continuous production since March 2026, with roughly 40 scheduled jobs, 8 LLM providers, a tool-governance proxy, and a knowledge-base memory plane, defended by 4,286 unit tests and 827 governance checks. Over eight weeks we documented 22 incidents with full root-cause postmortems, in which one meta-pattern -- a failure whose error signal never reaches a human in actionable form -- manifested at least 28 times. We derive a five-class, mechanism-oriented taxonomy: (A) environment and platform quirks, (B) design-assumption mismatches, (C) error swallowing and dilution, (D) chained hallucination and fabrication, (E) operational omission and forensic blind spots. Class D is unique to LLM systems and the most dangerous: the system does not merely fail to report an error -- the LLM transforms it into fluent, plausible narrative delivered to the user. We term this fail-plausible: gray failure's differential observability escalated -- the observer is not just blind, it is convincingly lied to by the failure itself. Three findings: about 70% of silent failures were caught by human user-view observation, not tests or audits; a retrospective audit of 15 incidents found 0% ex-ante prevention but 87% regression blocking -- audits are regression engines, not prediction engines; incident latency (13 hours to 60 days) tracks failure mechanism, not code complexity -- the longest-lived failures lived in the seams between components, where no test runs. We describe the resulting defense framework and distill design principles for agent systems whose failures are loud, attributable, and boring. All postmortems and artifacts are public.

The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.

Understanding student errors in the programming is a cornerstone of programming education, yet obtaining a representative set of student errors for any newly designed task remains slow and costly, since authentic submissions only accumulate after extensive classroom deployment. This paper explores whether large language models (LLMs) can serve as scalable proxies for students by simulating realistic logical errors in code submissions. Using the CodeWorkout dataset of 74,000+ unique student Java submissions across 37 problems, we evaluate five LLMs under three mainstream prompting strategies: Input-Output (IO), Chain-of-Thought (CoT), and iterative Self-Refine. We assess performance along two key dimensions: diversity (the range of distinct error patterns) and alignment (alignment with authentic student mistakes), and examine how these vary by struggling level of programming tasks. Our quantitative findings reveal that while all models generate diverse errors, their alignment to human submissions diverges: Claude Sonnet 4 achieves the most balanced performance. In addition, we conducted a blinded expert annotation study (N = 401) comparing synthetic and authentic errors. This qualitative analysis confirms that the generated errors are functionally indistinguishable from authentic student errors. Moreover, higher-struggling-level problems elicit more diverse but less student-like errors. These results highlight trade-offs in using LLMs to simulate human learners and suggest design considerations for integrating synthetic errors into teachable agents, intelligent tutoring systems, and large-scale learning analytics.