Estimators

We consider the problem of estimating the trace of an implicit matrix $\mathbf{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{d^p\times d^p}$ that can only be accessed through matrix-vector products queries. The \textit{Hutchinson trace estimator}% \cite{Girard1987algorithme, article-hutchinson} is a classical sketching method for this problem. Their estimator, $H_{m}(\mathbf{A}) = \frac{1}{m} \sum_{i=1}^{m} {\mathbf{z}^{(i)}}^T \mathbf{A} \mathbf{z}^{(i)}, \quad \text{where } \ {\mathbf{z}^{(i)}}\in \mathbb{R}^{d^p}$, and $z^{(i)}_j \in {N}(0, 1), j\in [d^p]$, satisfies the following guarantees: (i) $\mathbb{E}[H_{m}(\mathbf{A})]=\operatorname{tr}(\mathbf{A})$, and (ii) $\mathrm{Var}[H_{m}(\mathbf{A})]=\frac{2}{m}||\mathbf{A}||_F^2$. Generating one query vector $\mathbf{z}^{(i)}$ requires $O(d^p)$ random bits; thus, $m$ queries require $O(md^p)$ random bits, which can be prohibitive in large-scale applications. Recent work by Meyer et al.\cite{meyer2025hutchinsonsestimatorbadkroneckertraceestimation} proposes a variant of the Hutchinson trace estimator in which each query vector in $\mathbb{R}^{d^p}$ is constructed as the Kronecker product of $p$ random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$, requiring $O(mpd)$ random bits for $m$ query vectors. The estimator of~\cite{meyer2025hutchinsonsestimatorbadkroneckertraceestimation} is unbiased; however, its variance grows exponentially with $p$. In this work, we address this limitation by proposing a sketching-based estimator that requires $O\!\big(p (d + m)\log m\big)$ random bits, yields an unbiased estimate of the trace, and simultaneously achieves a variance bound that grows polynomially with $p$.

Shapley value (SV)-based methods are the prevailing framework for feature attribution in machine learning, yet existing population-level Shapley estimators generally assume that observations used to evaluate the coalitional game are fully observed under a common feature space. This assumption is routinely violated in multi-site studies across biomedicine, social science, and environmental monitoring, where institutions record different features under different protocols, producing systematic blockwise missingness across sources. We first show that the standard remedy of imputing missing features before computing Shapley values introduces systematic, coalition-dependent bias into the resulting attributions. We then propose \textbf{FUSHAP} (\textbf{Fu}sion \textbf{Sh}apley \textbf{A}ttribution from \textbf{P}artially-observed data), a method that leverages partially-observed auxiliary sites to reduce the variance of a preliminary single-site Shapley estimate without imputation. A permutation-based screening step detects and excludes sites whose data distributions are incompatible with the target population. In synthetic experiments, FUSHAP achieves $3$--$8\times$ lower MSE than the single-site estimator and $2$--$3\times$ lower MSE than imputation baselines without incurring imputation-induced bias, and the screening procedure identifies misaligned sites with $82\%$ power at moderate misalignment and $100\%$ for strong misalignment. On multi-site air quality and multi-center clinical data, FUSHAP reduces MSE by approximately $3$--$7\times$ relative to the single-site estimator; in the clinical application, standard imputation can increase MSE above the single-site baseline.

Multimodal forecasting models that combine time series with text annotations promise richer prediction through textual context, but how do we know whether a text annotation meaningfully contributes to the forecasters prediction? This is an information-theoretic question, but to evaluate whether information-theoretic metrics can reliably measure the predictive value an annotation provides, a ground truth benchmark is needed, and none currently exist. We create a synthetic time series signal with annotations in three categories: semantically correct, incorrect, and irrelevant. Because the data generation process is fully controlled, ground-truth information content is known exactly, enabling principled evaluation of six complementary mutual information estimators (KSG, MINE, InfoNCE, CCA, PID and V-information). We show that all six estimators identify correct annotations as most informative, and are able to audit the quality of mixed text corpora, choosing the annotations that result in the best downstream forecasting results without the need for model training. Our benchmark identifies limitations of each estimator, and these are validated on seven real-world datasets, which show how estimator performance differs on weak signals. Finally, we establish practical rules for implementing these metrics for annotation auditing and fusion selection.

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is a principled and statistically efficient approach for learning probabilistic models. However, for unnormalized models, ML estimation requires evaluating the partition function and differentiating through it, which may not always be tractable. Score matching provides a practically viable alternative that circumvents this obstacle by fitting the score in a way that eliminates dependence on the normalizing constant. We derive the generalized score matching objective on a convex subset of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ constructively starting from Minimum Probability Flow (MPF) learning, and show how classical score matching as well as domain-adapted variants for non-negative data arise naturally within the proposed framework. We show that the resulting objective is a {\it proper local scoring rule} of second-order, which provides the theoretical guarantee that the true density is recovered when the objective is minimized. Furthermore, for a model belonging to the exponential family, we establish convexity of the objective together with consistency of the finite-sample estimator under standard regularity conditions. Our derivation sheds new light on the scope and applicability of generalized score matching in various problem settings. We compare generalized score matching-based estimators on constrained domains, where the partition function is analytically intractable. We provide experimental results on parameter estimation for model densities belonging to the exponential family defined over convex subsets of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$, and a generative modeling use-case to demonstrate broader applicability of the proposed generalized score matching framework.

Average treatment effect (ATE) estimation in observational studies is a fundamental statistical tool used frequently in social science, medicine, and other fields. These fields often work with sensitive data where privacy protections are important, so a differentially private mechanism for ATE estimation is highly desirable. Here we present two propensity score-based algorithms for ATE estimation on observational data, one improving the inverse probability weighting (IPW) method used in prior work, and the other using blocking on the propensity score (BPS). Both show lower error and less bias than prior work, with the BPS-based algorithm frequently reducing error by 75% or more compared to prior work.

When an external reference set (an anchor) is used to decompose an LLM-judge panel's error into a quality signal and a shared common-mode error, standard practice assumes the anchor is uncontaminated: its error uncorrelated with the judges' shared error. We study when that assumption can be dropped and replaced by an estimate. Under a single-common-factor model, >=2 judges and >=2 anchors point-identify the quality variance, the common-mode variance, and each anchor's contamination correlation rho_k in closed form, with an exact per-anchor-pair failure boundary; a designated clean-anchor estimator, by contrast, reports a contaminated companion anchor as fully clean once its trusted anchor is itself contaminated. Because the single-common-factor assumption is itself untestable, the estimator ships gated behind a calibrated diagnostic battery (judge-covariance dispersion; over-identification; a family-block test from judge metadata, with a family-blocked estimator that removes family-level shared-residual bias exactly), bootstrap confidence intervals with measured coverage, and a weak-identification screen. A proposition maps which violations bias rho_k, in which direction, and which evade detection. For ordinal scores we show an identification hierarchy: with all variables ordinal, rho_k is not identified at any number of anchors; with ordinal judges and >=3 continuous anchors it is, and we give an estimator for that case. On real data the validation is asymmetric, and we say so plainly: the diagnostics are validated in the rejecting direction (both real panels we test are correctly rejected by the model-adequacy pre-test), while the estimator is validated in simulation and stress-tested semi-synthetically under oracle calibration; no real panel has yet passed the pre-test, and the pre-test exists precisely to say so. All results replay offline from shipped, checksummed artifacts.

In this paper, we consider the scalar-on-function linear regression model under a realistic sampling scheme in which the functional covariates are observed on a regular grid and contaminated by additive noise. We propose a two-step estimation procedure: first, the underlying curves are reconstructed from the discrete noisy observations using a Fourier-based projection method; second, the slope function is estimated by a penalized least-squares criterion over finite-dimensional trigonometric spaces, with data-driven selection of the model dimension. We establish oracle-type inequalities for the prediction error, both with respect to the reconstructed curves and to the true latent curves. Under regularity assumptions on the slope function and polynomial decay of the eigenvalues of the covariate, we derive convergence rates for the prediction error and show that our estimator attains the minimax rate when the number of grid points is sufficiently large. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated on simulated data and on a real meteorological dataset.

We study distributed one-dimensional mean estimation under a 1-bit communication constraint. Each agent observes one sample, drawn independently from an unknown distribution, and returns a single bit in response to a query $Q: \mathbb{R}\to\{0,1\}$ chosen by a central learner. The distribution has mean in $[-λ,λ]$ and $k$-th central moment at most $σ^k$, for a fixed $k>1$. The order-optimal two-stage protocol of Lau and Scarlett uses responses from the first batch to choose the second-batch queries, motivating the question of whether this single round of interaction is necessary. We answer this negatively: for every $k>1$, a non-adaptive protocol attains the adaptive 1-bit minimax rate (and concurrent works reached the same conclusion via different strategies). We further determine the minimax sample complexity among non-adaptive 1-bit estimators when every one-set $Q^{-1}(1)$ is restricted to a union of at most $s$ intervals. Relative to unrestricted non-adaptive 1-bit querying, this constraint adds a term of order $(λσ/(s\varepsilon^2))\log(1/δ)$, giving the full tradeoff between sample complexity and interval complexity to within $k$-dependent constant factors. As a corollary, we identify, order-wise, the minimum interval budget needed to retain the unrestricted 1-bit minimax sample rate.

We characterize the sharp structure-agnostic minimax risk for coefficient estimation in the partial linear model when the outcome and treatment nuisances are learned by two distinct black-box learners, which resolves the open problem in double machine learning posed by Gu (2025). For each nuisance $q\in\{μ,π\}$, we characterize the available learner by an approximation-error budget $a_q$ and a stochastic-error budget $s_q$, with the latter controlled through localized Rademacher complexity. Writing $\mathcal E_n$ for the minimax mean-squared error, we show that $$\mathcal E_n\asymp1\wedge\left\{\frac1n+\left(a_μa_π+\min\left\{a_πs_μ+s_π^2,\,a_μs_π+s_μ^2\right\}\right)^2\right\}.$$ The main new ingredient is a novel lower bound for the general two-learner problem. Our proof constructs four finite-mixture testing experiments using orthogonal code functions. Across these experiments, the hidden perturbations are placed outside both learner classes, outside only the treatment learner class, outside only the outcome learner class, or inside both learner classes. These four configurations capture, respectively, the interaction between the two approximation errors, the two asymmetric interactions between one learner's approximation error and the other learner's learning error, and the joint estimation difficulty of learning both nuisances. Combining the four resulting lower bounds yields the displayed rate, which matches the latest upper bound in Gu (2026). Our result shows that standard double machine learning can overstate the intrinsic difficulty of target estimation and provides a target-specific principle for learner selection: approximation error and stochastic complexity must be jointly balanced across the two nuisance learners rather than optimized separately.

Quantile treatment effects (QTEs) measure the effect of a treatment on the distribution of an outcome, and their estimation at extreme quantile levels is of central interest in applications where the target quantiles lie far beyond the range of the data. For heavy-tailed potential outcomes, existing extremal QTE estimators rely on extrapolation combined with a causal extreme value index (EVI) estimator, but the resulting estimator is not invariant under a common location shift of the potential outcome distributions, even though the population QTE is. We address this issue in two steps. First, we adapt the location-invariant Fraga estimator of the EVI to the causal setting using inverse propensity score weighting. Second, we replace the original extrapolation formula with a difference-based scheme, under which the location parameter cancels when quantile differences are taken. The resulting QTE estimator is therefore location invariant. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed extremal QTE estimators, and provide a consistent variance estimator, leading to asymptotically valid inference. A simulation study confirms the location invariance, the stability with respect to the threshold, and the coverage of the proposed methods.

Most single-channel separators estimate a source by applying a real gain to the mixture in each time-frequency bin. The optimum of that format, which the oracle masks used as bounds do not attain, is the orthogonal projection of the source onto the line spanned by the mixture, its residual set by the angle between them. Locating an estimator reduces to the block structure of a real-linear operator on stacked spectra, giving a chain of four nested classes whose three larger terms match three assumptions on the prior: zero means, circularity and absence of inter-frequency coupling. Held fixed the chain is a cascade of four orthogonal projections; refitted per frame it collapses onto its first term, attributing the whole residual to one missing real parameter per bin, the phase. When the phase posterior is symmetric about the mixture direction, the minimum mean-square estimate falls back onto the line, with gain the posterior mean of the oracle gain and excess error its variance. On MUSDB18 a posterior mean under a non-circular Gaussian-mixture prior leaves the class yet stays 11.44 dB under the per-frame ceiling, which four times as many components and 7.5x the data do not close; a closed-form gate attributes some 70% of it, in decibels, to the predicted variance. The widest fixed class stays 6.70 dB under the same ceiling. Leaving the class and minimising squared error are conflicting requests: the barrier lies in the criterion rather than in the prior.

We revisit median-of-means estimation from a deterministic optimization viewpoint and develop a family of block-Lp estimators for robust learning with heavy-tailed and adversarially corrupted data. In a block contamination model with at least a fraction 1 minus epsilon of good blocks, we first show that every convex block M-estimator has worst-case robustness constant at least 1 divided by 1 minus 2 epsilon. This matches the classical median-of-means bound and proves that the trimmed-block oracle constant 1 divided by 1 minus epsilon cannot be attained within the convex class. We then introduce a nonconvex block-Lp family for p between 0 and 1 and derive finite-sample deterministic robustness bounds for all global minimizers. As p decreases from 1 toward 0, these bounds continuously approach the trimmed-block oracle constant. For sufficiently small p, the global minimizers coincide with those of the oracle under a mild separation condition. We also show that the block-Lp objectives have a benign landscape, with all local minima remaining close to the truth and no bad basins. Combining these results with block-level concentration yields sub-Gaussian deviation bounds under finite 2 plus delta moments and high-dimensional extensions to robust mean estimation and sparse regression.

Robust estimation is a core computer vision task frequently tackled using sample consensus. However, traditional methods suffer from inefficient sampling as they struggle to identify effective minimum sets before hypothesis evaluation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Diffusion-guided Sampling for Consensus-based Robust Estimation (DiffSAC) framework. DiffSAC introduces a diffusion model to learn the distribution of effective minimum sets. It refines the confidence for each data point, indicating whether it belongs to a good minimum set, rather than ranking the data points as in previous work. This significantly reduces the need to process numerous bad sets. To constrain the refinement direction, geometric features are incorporated as conditions within our diffusion model. Consequently, DiffSAC outputs a small number of high-quality minimum sets, enabling identification of the best hypothesis via consensus evaluation. Notably, compared to previous works requiring evaluating over ten thousand hypotheses, DiffSAC achieves state-of-the-art performance with only dozens, significantly boosting efficiency. Extensive experiments across five classic computer vision tasks demonstrate the superiority of DiffSAC. The diffusion model's sampling accelerators enable real-time operation, and DiffSAC can be used as a plug-and-play module to improve existing sample consensus methods.

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) is a key metric in various scenarios including e-commerce and advertising, reflecting the efficiency and user experience in the second stage of the conversion process. Estimating the causal effect on CVR is therefore of great practical importance. However, directly applying existing causal inference methods to clicked samples introduces sample selection bias and increased variance due to the exclusion of non-click data. Recent studies on CVR prediction introduce "ideal loss", which optimizes model parameters using an unbiased estimate of the loss over the full sample. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that unbiasedness of the loss implies unbiasedness of the final estimator. We revisit this challenge from the perspective of semiparametric theory. Specifically, we develop a new doubly robust causal effect estimator for chain-structured outcomes such as CVR, and derive its theoretical properties in detail. It achieves a faster convergence rate compared to nuisance parameters estimation and is therefore more robust when using flexible nonparametric estimators, including neural networks. Based on these theoretical findings, we further design a framework based on targeted regularization to improve numerical stability and practical applicability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method. In addition, we find that naively combining loss debiasing with standard causal estimators underperforms our method, highlighting the necessity of developing the new estimator tailored to this CVR-style objective with solid theoretical guarantees.

Robust estimation of the relative pose between two cameras is a fundamental part of Structure and Motion methods. For calibrated cameras, the five point method together with a robust estimator such as RANSAC gives the best result in most cases. The current state-of-the-art method for solving the relative pose problem from five points is due to Nister [9], because it is faster than other methods and in the RANSAC scheme one can improve precision by increasing the number of iterations. In this paper, we propose a new iterative method, which is based on Powell's Dog Leg algorithm. The new method has the same precision and is approximately twice as fast as Nister's algorithm. The proposed method is easily extended to more than five points while retaining a efficient error metrics. This makes it also very suitable as an refinement step. The proposed algorithm is systematically evaluated on three types of datasets with known ground truth.

Reliable relative pose estimation between autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) is critical for cooperative ocean exploration, sampling, and multi-robot coordination. However, achieving robust vision-based relative localization in underwater environments remains challenging due to severe optical degradation, including turbidity, illumination variations, reflections, and intermittent feature occlusions. This paper presents AMR-Pose, an active LED marker-based relative pose estimation framework for cooperative AUVs. A compact marker module consisting of one red central LED and three blue peripheral LEDs is developed and integrated onto the leader AUV to provide distinctive visual features under complex underwater conditions. Building upon the detected marker observations, a probabilistic switching Perspective-n-Point estimator (PSwPnP) is developed by combining Lie-group pose propagation on $SE(3)$, probabilistic marker association, and visibility-adaptive measurement fusion for robust six-degree-of-freedom relative pose estimation. The proposed framework dynamically adapts the estimation process according to marker visibility, maintaining geometric consistency and temporal stability during partial observations and visibility transitions. Extensive water-tank experiments with motion-capture ground truth validate that AMR-Pose achieves accurate, smooth, and robust relative pose estimation under challenging underwater conditions. Closed-loop leader-follower experiments further demonstrate its feasibility for real-time relative pose feedback in cooperative underwater robotics.

Organizations decide whom to treat under a budget and want to know what a targeting rule would have earned before deploying it. Off-policy evaluation promises this from logged data, but the deployable rule is a deterministic top-k policy: it removes all averaging over actions, so weak overlap hits the estimate directly. We benchmark six estimators across five datasets and two known-effect sweeps, and validate the mechanisms against a non-simulated paired reference. First, weak overlap is governed by logger-target action alignment, not by logging sharpness alone: what governs support is the logger's probability of the target's actions. Sharpening a logger built from the target's own score barely moves overlap over the tested range; action-level disagreement collapses it. Effective sample size ranks this risk across logging environments, but is weak at ranking candidates within the single log a practitioner holds, and its cut point does not transfer. Second, the optimizer's curse is not fixed by cross-fitting the outcome nuisance. When the rule is fit on the data used to evaluate it, cross-fitting the nuisance alone leaves the reuse bias in place and makes it worse. Honest policy-level splitting avoids the reuse by targeting the learning procedure's value -- a change of estimand, not a de-biasing of the full-sample policy. Third, propensity-estimation error is the largest degradation we measure: an out-of-fold estimate hurts IPS more than any other stress we apply, leaves doubly-robust estimation almost unchanged, and can invert the overlap diagnostic itself. Logging is synthesized and propensities floored at 0.02, so every failure occurs with bounded weights; the floor also reduces the two tuned hybrids to their untuned parents, leaving four practically distinct estimators, and all exact-value surfaces are synthetic or semi-synthetic. We release the benchmark; public data only.

Spatially continuous quantification of forest above-ground biomass (AGB) is what makes carbon accounting credible and mitigation strategies actionable. While field inventories provide high localized accuracy, they are spatially sparse; conversely, spaceborne LiDAR from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) offers broad biomass samples but lacks spatial continuity and systematic underestimation of high-biomass forests. This paper presents an operational framework centered on a single globally trained convolutional neural network (CNN) that is seamlessly adapted to each new landscape through a lightweight empirical field-calibration workflow. The global model combines optical (Sentinel-2), C-band SAR (Sentinel-1), L-band SAR (ALOS-2 PALSAR-2), and terrain (DEM) data. It is trained once against GEDI Level-4A biomass reference data spanning multiple regions and both wet and dry seasons so that it learns the persistent woody-structure rather than a single-date appearance. To avoid retraining for every landscape, the framework applies a small number of local field plots to fit a scale-and-bias correction that aligns the global prediction with ground truth in each region. The pipeline harmonizes sensor data onto a shared 10 m grid, derives vegetation indices and polarimetric ratios, computes per-band normalization stats, and trains the CNN with a hybrid log-domain SmoothL1 with RMSE loss for skewed biomass distribution. On held-out validation the global GEDI-based model achieved R^2 approximately 0.78 and RMSE approximately 22 Mg/ha. A subsequent field calibration combining Random Forest fine-tuning under a 10-fold cross-validation eliminates localized regional biases. This improves local validation performance to R^2 approximately 0.82 and reduces RMSE to approximately 15 Mg/ha, outperforming both the uncalibrated global model and the ESA CCI Biomass product against field plots.

Reliable onboard state estimation is essential for safe robotic operation, yet unmodeled disturbances, such as sensor aliasing or out-of-distribution noise, still cause estimators to degrade or fail completely. While many methods aim to improve estimator robustness, only a few provide introspective mechanisms to assess estimate quality. Existing uncertainty measures, such as covariances, rely on idealized assumptions and tend to be overconfident, and more recent data-driven approaches are typically tied to their training data distributions. We propose a sensor-agnostic introspective method that assesses estimator health by analyzing the frequency-domain power distribution of recent velocity estimates. The method is evaluated using outdoor flight data from an aerial robot running visual-inertial, LiDAR-inertial, and radar-inertial odometry. The dataset includes multiple estimator failures, enabling analysis of several frequency-domain indicators, such as signal power, spectral bandwidth, and entropy. We observe consistent spectral power differences between healthy and degraded estimates, allowing detection of 51%-58% of labeled failures with 60%-84% precision across three fundamentally different state estimation frameworks. Our results show that even a simple frequency-domain analysis of a state estimator's output can serve as a lightweight introspective tool to complement existing robustness techniques in real-world robotic deployments, and opens promising avenues for future investigation.

We develop a new approach to Personalized Federated Learning across heterogeneous clients using Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (NPEB). Leveraging the asymptotic normality of local parameter estimates obtained from Empirical Risk Minimization or M-estimation, our method formulates these estimates as noisy observations to estimate an unknown shared prior via Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood. A key challenge in applying NPEB in this setting is that existing approaches assume known fixed variances, which is not true in practice. To address this, we introduce a Variance-Aware Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (VANEB) framework that leverages the parameter-dependent asymptotic variance of local M-estimators. A key technical contribution is a generalized Tweedie's formula for this heteroskedastic setting. We then establish non-asymptotic error rates for density estimation in the average squared Hellinger distance and derive an oracle denoising inequality that provides error bounds for our estimator. While our theoretical guarantees are rooted in the asymptotic regime of M-estimators, we empirically explore heuristic extensions of VANEB to modern federated learning settings involving Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). For DNNs, we propose VANEB-head and VANEB-FT, which personalize the last fully connected layer via an NPEB step using an approximate diagonal variance estimator. We show that our method has strong performance on popular vision datasets MNIST and CIFAR-10, using a convolutional neural network architecture.

We adapt two classical statistical estimators for quantifying uncertainty to modern deep learning, in order to provide clearer insights into uncertainty attributable to two sources : aleatoric uncertainty, or locally scarce data. Our approach leverages recent advances in approximate Fisher Information Matrices, to enable scaling to actual architectures. Experimental results demonstrate how each test points is differentially impacted by both sources, highlighting the practical utility of our estimators in improving the robustness of real-world applications.

LVLMs are increasingly used to read financial charts, tables, and documents, where a single misread figure can move a decision and the most authoritative-looking answer is sometimes one the model produced without reading the exhibit. The operational question is therefore trust, not accuracy: which answers can be acted on, and which escalated to a reviewer. We evaluate seven confidence estimators, three inference-only and four trained internal probes, across five open-weight LVLMs and four conditions from three financial visual question-answering benchmarks, one bilingual; every probe is trained only on natural images and applied to finance without adaptation, so the results measure out-of-distribution transfer. Three findings hold. First, the scarce property is calibration, not ranking: the inference baselines rank correct above incorrect answers competitively but are badly overconfident, calibration error far above what a threshold can tolerate, and only the trained probes produce a thresholdable score. Second, reliability is structured rather than global, along two axes a practitioner can read directly: the best estimator shifts with both model and task, none leading more than eight of twenty (model, condition) cells, and a controlled bilingual contrast exposes an apparent language robustness as a composition artifact that dissolves once models are read one at a time. Third, cast as deferral under an error budget, how much can be safely automated is set first by the model's competence and only narrowed by its confidence, so deferral clears a real share of the easiest condition and almost none of the hardest, near zero at a strict 5% budget. Two trained probes carry the calibration a deferral policy needs, and among them only the grounding-aware one lowers its confidence on answers a model gives without using the figure, separating detected non-grounding from a fluent guess.

Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models have long been considered impractical beyond moderate dimensions: the likelihood is non-convex, the parametrization is identified only up to equivalence, and every evaluation costs a pass over the entire series. Yet their moving-average term captures with a few parameters what a pure autoregression matches only with many lags. We introduce an estimation framework that removes this computational barrier: each optimization iteration is independent of the series length $T$. The framework combines a partial-autocorrelation reparametrization that guarantees stationarity and invertibility by construction, Gaussian priors on the reparametrized coefficients with separate scales for diagonal and off-diagonal entries, and losses that depend on the data only through fixed-size sufficient statistics, evaluated by a Parseval (Fourier) identity at near-linear cost in the truncation length. This yields two point estimators: a regularized least-squares fit and a covariance-marginalized maximum-a-posteriori estimator. We prove that both recover the infinite-autoregressive representation of the true process at a near-parametric rate in fixed dimension, so the truncation introduces no asymptotic bias. The same machinery extends, at the same leading cost, to seasonal dynamics, exogenous regressors (VARMAX), and rolling-window refits. Empirically, the estimators stay close to the oracle forecast error from $d=10$ to $d=40$ (where classical conditional MLE returns non-invertible fits whose forecasts diverge) and match or beat VAR, Bayesian-VAR, component-wise ARMA, and sparse-VARMA baselines on retail-demand, meteorological, and air-quality data. This brings likelihood-based VARMA estimation, at a per-iteration cost independent of the series length, to the problem sizes where practitioners have so far relied on VAR models.

We developed a unified covariate-adjusted causal inference framework for estimating the desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) probability for benefit-risk evaluation in randomized trials and observational studies. The framework expresses the DOOR probability as a bilinear functional of the marginal ordinal outcome distributions under the two treatment strategies, estimates conditional ordinal distributions through sequential risk-set hazards, and derives the efficient influence function (EIF) of the DOOR probability. The point-estimation simulations compared G-computation, normalized inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), with nuisance functions estimated using generalized linear models or Super Learner (SL). TMLE-SL showed the strongest and most consistent point-estimation performance, with AIPW-SL ranking second. EIF-based inference was then evaluated for AIPW-SL and TMLE-SL, with and without cross-fitting, across settings varying in overlap, treatment-effect heterogeneity, and treatment allocation. CVTMLE-SL showed the strongest overall performance across DOOR-scale bias, recovery of the underlying ordinal distributions, standard-error accuracy, and confidence-interval coverage. We illustrate the methodology using data from the multidrug-resistant organism network of the Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group.

This paper studies generalized low-rank matrix bandits with multiple prioritized objectives. At each round, the learner selects a matrix-valued arm and observes a vector-valued reward, whose components correspond to multiple objectives with different priority levels. Each objective is governed by an objective-specific generalized low-rank matrix model, and the learner evaluates arms according to a lexicographic preference order, prioritizing higher-level objectives before lower-level ones. We propose \textsc{Lexi-LowGLM}, an efficient online algorithm that first estimates objective-specific low-rank subspaces and then performs lexicographic learning in the reduced feature spaces. Unlike existing single-objective algorithms that repeatedly solve a batch generalized linear estimator using all historical observations, \textsc{Lexi-LowGLM} updates each objective-specific estimator via an online Newton step, reducing the estimator-update complexity over $T$ rounds from $O(T^2)$ to $O(T)$. We establish a regret bound of $\widetilde O\left(W_i^{\rm lex}\sqrt{m}\,(d_1+d_2)r\sqrt{T}\right)$ for each objective $i\in[m]$, where $r$ is an upper bound on the ranks of the objective-specific parameter matrices and $W_i^{\rm lex}$ characterizes the lexicographic trade-off effect. This bound depends on the effective low-rank dimension $(d_1+d_2)r$ rather than the ambient dimension $d_1d_2$. Numerical experiments further validate the effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed method.

We present a simple Gaussian approximation to the finite-sample distribution of the classical ridge regression estimator. Our approximation captures the fact that, in finite samples, the ridge regression estimator trades off bias and variance to reduce estimation and prediction error. Our approximation is based on nonstandard asymptotics where $i)$ we let the estimator's regularization parameter grow proportionally to the sample size; and $ii)$ we treat the population regression coefficients as \emph{local} to the reference vector that defines the estimator's direction of shrinkage. In contrast to other asymptotic approximations in the literature, we allow for general forms of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation in the data generating process (at the cost of considering a low-dimensional model where the number of covariates is not allowed to grow with the sample size). We use our simple Gaussian approximation to propose two new strategies to select the regularization parameter for the ridge regression estimator. The suggested strategies select the regularization parameter to minimize either average or worst-case excess prediction risk, where risk is computed using our suggested Gaussian approximation.

This paper is concerned with one-bit mean estimation, where each independent sample is represented by a single binary message. We consider distributions on $\mathbb{R}$ with mean in $[-λ,λ]$ and absolute $k$-th central moment at most $σ^k$, where $k>1$ is fixed. For this class, previous work attained the optimal sample complexity for general queries using a two-stage protocol. The first stage localizes the mean. The second-stage queries are chosen after localization and refine the estimate around the decoded center. We show that this interaction can be avoided by constructing a randomized fully non-adaptive protocol that fixes all queries before observing the data and matches the optimal adaptive sample complexity. For target accuracy $ε$ and confidence $1-δ$, its sample complexity scales as $$\log\fracλσ + \begin{cases} (σ/ε)^2\log(1/δ), & k>2,\\ (σ/ε)^2\log(σ/ε)\log(1/δ), & k=2,\\ (σ/ε)^{k/(k-1)}\log(1/δ), & 1<k<2, \end{cases}$$ up to constants depending only on $k$. In the range covered by the known lower bound, this rate is minimax optimal even among fully adaptive protocols. This gives a negative answer to the COLT 2026 open problem asking whether interaction is necessary for order-optimal one-bit mean estimation with general queries \citep[Open Problem~1]{lau2026open}.

Recently, rectified flow has emerged as a fundamental framework for large-scale image generation, powering state-of-the-art systems such as FLUX.1 and Stable Diffusion 3. Despite its remarkable empirical success, the computational and statistical guarantees of iterative rectified flow have remained largely unexplored. We address this problem by studying \textit{c}-rectified flow, a cost-aware class of rectified flow that projects velocity fields onto a gradient class while preserving endpoint marginals. The ordinary rectified flow can fail to recover the optimal transport coupling: in a Gaussian case study, the iteration converges to the optimal coupling if and only if the source and target covariance matrices commute. In contrast, under suitable compactness and uniform-integrability assumptions, iterative \textit{c}-rectified flow always converges to the optimal transport coupling. We further establish quantitative one-step contraction and exponential convergence guarantees under projection-stability assumptions for both quadratic and strongly convex displacement costs. Finally, under a Hölder ball assumption, we develop new minimax-optimal score estimation rates and show that, when combined with iterative \textit{c}-rectified flow, they yield a rate-optimal estimator of the optimal transport for the dimension $d \ge 3$ and a nearly parametric rate for $d=1,2$.

We present a simulation-trained, non-iterative estimator for Task A of the 1st DAFx Parameter Estimation Challenge. Each unnormalized plate-reverb impulse response is summarized by amplitude, spectral, and decay descriptors, and an ensemble of tree regressors estimates the six target parameters in one pass. Across two independent synthetic validation sets, the normalized models outperform the training-set mean and an earlier raw-regression baseline. On a shared set, the final ensemble also outperforms a single run of the official default PSO at substantially lower inference cost. Since the official labels are hidden, parameter accuracy is measured on simulator-matched data, and the released responses support only audio-side consistency checks. The estimator returns point estimates without uncertainty.

Density modes provide a localized and interpretable summary of multimodal distributions, but their estimation under rigorous differential privacy constraints remains largely unexplored. We study differentially private recovery of density modes for multivariate distributions under local smoothness, curvature, and separation conditions. We propose DP-GRAMS, a mean-shift inspired method that performs noisy ascent on a differentially private score estimator. Assuming the density belongs locally to a Hölder class with smoothness parameter $β> 2$, our score estimator uses bias-reducing higher-order kernels, and then enforces privacy in the gradient ascent steps via gradient clipping and calibrated Gaussian noise. A private initialization scheme combines a density-aware utility with a suppression rule and, with $k\asymp M\log n$ draws over a public $h_{\mathrm{DAP}}$-grid and suppression radius $ρ_{\mathrm{init}}\asymp (\log n)^{-1/d}$, achieves high-probability coverage of the modal basins by successively suppressing selected local neighborhoods in competitive regions, while correlated noise across multiple starts enables joint release under a single $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy guarantee. We prove that all population modes are recovered with high probability and establish asymptotic error rates of the form $O\!\left((\tfrac{\log n}{n})^{\frac{2(β-1)}{d+2β}}\right) + O\!\left((\tfrac{\mathrm{polylog}(n,δ)}{n^2\varepsilon^2})^{\frac{β-1}{d+β}}\right)$. We also provide minimax lower bounds for private mode estimation, and show that our estimators are nearly optimal, up to a logarithmic factor in the MSE. We present two natural extensions: DP-PMS, a private modal-regression method, and DP-GRAMS-C, a clustering pipeline. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate favorable privacy-utility trade-offs relative to common baselines.

Longitudinal causal studies often record histories as irregular functional fragments: laboratory values, physiologic signals, sensor streams, and image-derived summaries measured at unequal and informative times. Standard doubly robust estimators usually require scalar summaries, whereas sequence learners optimize prediction losses that need not stabilize the efficient influence function. We propose Doubly Robust Functional Representation Learning (DR-FRL), a cross-fitted workflow that turns irregular histories into estimand-targeted states for observed-history regimes. Functional and temporal encoders map point clouds and prior histories into states; nuisance heads estimate outcome, treatment, and censoring functions; and EIF-targeted validation, calibration, overlap, tail, and ablation diagnostics assess whether the state supports the estimating equation. If the selected state preserves the nuisance information needed by the EIF, representation error enters the same second-order product remainder as ordinary nuisance error, and the mean estimator is asymptotically linear under explicit rate, overlap, calibration, and stability conditions. Catoni aggregation is treated separately as a bounded-influence point estimator, not a replacement for Wald inference. Simulations show gains when functional confounding is high-dimensional, measurement is informative, support is weak, or pseudo-outcomes are heavy-tailed. A VitalDB audit shows that DR-FRL can use irregular laboratory point clouds and deliver a useful negative finding: for this ICU-disposition endpoint, scalar laboratory summaries already carry much endpoint-relevant information.

Local differential privacy (LDP) protocols are vulnerable to poisoning attacks. Existing research have proposed efficient defense strategies for single-item users. However, in practice, a user may possess multiple items. The defense against poisoning attacks for multi-item users is challenging, because due to larger output spaces, the adversary can conduct more powerful attacks without being detected. In this paper, we address the robust sparse vector mean estimation problem, in which each user has a vector with $m$ nonzero coordinates. We propose Randomized Projection with Clipping (RPC). Firstly, the server sends a random binary vector to each user. The user then projects its local data on the vector, and clip the value to restrict the attacker's capability. To handle clipping bias, we propose a correction method based on a careful analysis that gives an exact expression of the bias. As a result, bias-variance tradeoff is no longer needed, thus the clipping threshold can be further reduced to shrink the output space and enhance robustness. We provide a rigorous theoretical guarantee of the estimation error under all possible attacks. Numerical experiments show that under trusted environments, our new method achieves comparable or better performance than existing methods, indicating that our method is already an efficient estimator in its own right. Under untrusted environments, our method is also significantly more robust to poisoning attacks.

Mutual information is a general measure of statistical dependence that captures both linear and nonlinear relationships between random variables. For continuous and multidimensional variables For continuous multidimensional variables, mutual information must be estimated from samples. Because mutual information is unbounded, its values are not directly comparable across datasets, dimensions, or applications. Normalized mutual information addresses this limitation by converting mutual information into a normalized dependency score. Recent work has demonstrated the practical value of normalized mutual information in applications such as molecular dynamics {arXiv:2405.04980} and interpretable machine learning {arXiv:2409.16768}, but existing estimators remain sensitive to dimensionality and numerical stability {arXiv:2410.07642}. In this paper, we propose a fully neural normalized mutual information estimator for continuous variables. The proposed approach combines a MINE-based neural mutual information estimator {arXiv:1801.04062} with MI-NEE-inspired neural marginal entropy estimators {arXiv:1905.12957}. Mutual information is estimated using the Donsker--Varadhan representation, while marginal entropies are estimated by learning the divergence between each marginal distribution and a uniform reference distribution, from which entropy is recovered. The resulting estimator provides a neural alternative to k-nearest-neighbor-based normalized mutual information estimation {arXiv:2405.04980}. Experiments on Gaussian data from one to eight dimensions show that the proposed estimator improves accuracy over a KSG-based normalized mutual information baseline. These results indicate that neural estimation is a promising direction for normalized dependency measurement in continuous multidimensional settings.

Heavy tails weaken high-confidence control for the empirical mean. Geometric median-of-means (MOM) also lacks a threshold that moves toward mean efficiency. We propose \emph{HOMER}, or Huber-of-Means for Efficient and Robust Estimation. HOMER aggregates block means through a radial Huber center. Its canonical and pseudo-Huber forms bound each block score and interpolate between median-like robustness and the empirical mean. We establish a Hilbert-space majority theorem and a MOM-order deviation bound under a finite second moment. Canonical HOMER recovers the sample mean inside its quadratic region. Pseudo-HOMER approaches the sample mean as the threshold grows. It also admits asymptotic linearity and consistent sandwich covariance estimation around the population block-Huber target. Under a finite third moment, fixed finite-dimensional projections support mean inference at the usual parametric rate. This result requires growing block sizes and counts, with block sizes increasing faster. Heavy-tailed simulations show that HOMER remains stable when a minority of block summaries is displaced. On clean Gaussian data, both versions closely approach the empirical mean's efficiency. Finite-block sandwich intervals undercovered, especially for skewed functional data. Further studies show failure when contamination affects most blocks or compromises ordinary within-block means.

Evaluating large generative models across benchmarks is time-consuming and computationally expensive. This drives the need for methods that can estimate full benchmark performance by evaluating models on only a subset of items, known as a coreset. Current literature mostly requires the practitioner to input a coreset size. However, when reliable performance estimation takes priority over efficiency, an evaluation method should also be capable of automatically determining a coreset size that reflects this priority. We introduce BayesAME, a sequential Bayesian framework specifically targeting automatic determination of the coreset size. BayesAME models performance as a random variable by defining a latent ability for each group of items sharing the same historical model performances, with a joint prior distribution encoding the belief that the target model behaves similarly to these historical models. The posterior distribution over these abilities is used to derive performance estimators, quantify performance uncertainty, and select items to add to the coreset via an information-gain criterion. The coreset is iteratively augmented until the performance estimate fluctuation and the performance uncertainty fall below their respective user-defined thresholds. We propose a multi-target extension that captures performance correlations across multiple target models to further reduce the coreset size. Through extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks, we demonstrate that BayesAME consistently outperforms sequential adaptations of existing methods. Crucially, our comprehensive analysis addresses recent skepticism in the literature, establishing that non-random coreset selection is advantageous over random selection. Finally, we highlight that leveraging continuous response log-likelihoods over traditional binary scores significantly enhances estimation accuracy.

We study stochastic optimization with heavy-tailed gradient noise. We first propose a novel quantum mean estimator for multivariate heavy-tailed random variables that achieves lower query complexity than optimal classical estimators in the low-dimensional regime. We further develop an unbiased quantum mean estimator by applying a generalized multi-level Monte Carlo technique. We prove quantum lower bounds showing that, when the dimension $d$ of the random vector is small and can be viewed as a constant, our quantum estimators are optimal up to logarithmic factors. We further derive stronger dimension-dependent lower bounds for tail index $p>4/3$, showing that a nontrivial dependence on the dimension is unavoidable in the low-dimensional regime. Based on these estimators, we propose a quantum normalized stochastic gradient descent method ($\texttt{QNSGD}$), which finds an $ε$-stationary point using $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big(\sqrt d\,ε^{-\frac{5p-4}{2p-2}}\big)$ queries to the quantum stochastic gradient oracle. For a convex objective function, we propose a quantum projected stochastic gradient descent method ($\texttt{QPSGD}$), which computes a solution with $ε$-optimal solution using $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big(\sqrt d\,ε^{-\frac{3p-2}{2p-2}}+ε^{-2}\big)$ queries in expectation. These sharper bounds improve upon the classical lower bounds $Ω\big(ε^{-\frac{3p-2}{p-1}}\big)$ for nonconvex problems and $Ω\big(ε^{-\frac{p}{p-1}}\big)$ for convex problems in the low-dimensional regimes $d\lesssimε^{-\frac{p}{p-1}}$ and $d\lesssimε^{-\frac{2-p}{p-1}}$, respectively.

Standard offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms typically assume that the actions in the dataset are observed without error. However, in many real-world applications, the true actions are unobserved and only noisy proxies are available, causing existing RL methods to yield biased and potentially misleading conclusions. We study off-policy evaluation in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes with hidden actions. By leveraging the next-state variable as a natural proxy for the unobserved action, we establish identification of the policy value and propose an influence-function-based estimator called LURE (Learning from the Unseen: Robust Estimator). LURE is multiply robust, remaining consistent under several combinations of correctly specified nuisance components, and is asymptotically normal, enabling valid statistical inference. To our knowledge, this is the first work to address offline RL with hidden actions. We demonstrate LURE's effectiveness through simulations and a sepsis management application using the MIMIC-III database.

Synthetic control (SC) matches a treated unit's pre-treatment trajectory to a weighted combination of donor units. We study Spectral SC, which instead matches the treated unit in coordinates defined by the leading temporal singular vectors of the donor panel, and a hybrid estimator that places separately tunable weight on retained and discarded directions, nesting raw-path SC and truncated Spectral SC as endpoints. We prove that the family reduces exactly to raw-path SC at full rank, that exact balance on $K$ retained dimensions with $N_0$ donors is underdetermined whenever $N_0>K+1$, with an affine solution set of dimension $N_0-K-1$, and that spectral imbalance maps to treatment-effect bias through a finite-sample best-linear-predictor decomposition. We evaluate the estimators across eleven data-generating regimes, using $400$ replications per regime and donor-only placebo validation to select regularization and the mixing weight. Truncated Spectral SC has significantly higher RMSE than tuned raw-path SC in every regime, with paired differences equal to $4$ to $11$ Monte Carlo standard errors. The hybrid estimator selects raw-path matching in most replications and is statistically indistinguishable from tuned SC in most regimes. The result is highly sensitive to preprocessing. With raw inputs, the performance gap is large; after removing unit and time fixed effects before spectral decomposition, as suggested by the assumptions behind our bound, the gap nearly disappears and placebo validation begins to favor truncation. We interpret these findings diagnostically rather than as evidence that Spectral SC should replace raw-path SC. Basis-estimation noise, balancing underdetermination, and fixed-effects contamination determine when spectral matching can help.

Over the past 20 years, kernel discrepancies have been leveraged as a highly powerful tool for quantifying the disagreement of distributions, with numerous successful applications in two-sample, goodness-of-fit, and independence testing, among others. Their fastest estimators are known to converge at a parametric rate---$n^{-1/2}$---under mild conditions. While this rate is known to be minimax optimal on $\mathbb R^d$ under strict assumptions with bounded kernels, little is known about its optimality beyond the finite-dimensional Euclidean setting with unbounded kernels. In this work, we prove that the minimax lower bound of estimation of the most popular kernel discrepancies (maximum mean discrepancy, Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion and kernel Stein discrepancy; MMD, HSIC, KSD) is $n^{-1/2}$ on general topological spaces, and under mild assumptions on the kernel; the same rates are shown (as corollaries) to hold for the estimation of the mean embedding and the centered cross-covariance operator. Our results settle the question of optimal estimation of these kernel discrepancies.

We introduce the Directional Kernel Mean Difference (DKMD), a signed statistic for univariate distribution comparison that preserves the direction of distributional shifts. Unlike the squared Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), which discards directional information by squaring the RKHS distance, DKMD integrates the difference of kernel mean embeddings against a fixed odd weighting function. This construction yields three structural properties: antisymmetry, immunity to symmetric distributional differences, and directional monotonicity under stochastic dominance. We derive a data-driven Riemann estimator that ensures asymptotic consistency with the continuous formulation, strictly preserving the theoretical guarantees of the signed statistic in empirical evaluations. To overcome the quadratic computational cost of kernel methods, we develop an $O(N \log N)$ prefix--suffix scanning algorithm that exploits the total order of the real line while requiring only $O(N)$ memory. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks demonstrate that DKMD correctly isolates directional shifts from symmetric perturbations, remains robust to heavy-tailed outliers that can flip the sign of the mean difference, and scales to millions of samples in seconds.

This article presents a novel estimator for performing off-policy evaluation using only offline data for contextual bandits. The proposed estimator, Kernel-WIS is demonstrated to be asymptotically consistent and to empirically outperform strong baselines (including vanilla weighted importance sampling), particularly under complex conditions including behaviour policy miss-specification. The benefit of Kernel-WIS is derived from combining the bounded property of vanilla weighted importance sampling with the linearity of vanilla importance sampling.

Policy learning methods are increasingly used to inform treatment allocation under budget constraints. Most proposed methods assume complete treatment data, yet applications frequently suffer from missingness that can bias estimates and lead to suboptimal policies. We address this gap by extending efficient estimators for average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to policy value and conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under missing at random (MAR) and missing completely conditionally at random (MCCAR) treatment data. Through asymptotic efficiency analysis, we prove that the MAR estimator, which leverages partially-observed units, is both valid and more efficient than the MCCAR estimator when MCCAR assumptions hold. This result provides formal justification for preferring MAR-based estimation in policy learning under both missing data settings. Our comprehensive experiments using synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets confirm that correctly specifying the missingness mechanism is crucial: misspecified estimators remain biased regardless of sample size, while our estimators achieve near-oracle performance when assumptions are satisfied. Our work provides practitioners with theoretically grounded, empirically validated tools for robust policy learning in the presence of missing treatment data.

Estimating the full shape of a deformable object is especially challenging when vision is unavailable: in the dark, inside an opaque bag, behind the manipulating hand, or under heavy self-occlusion. Touch is the natural sensor in these settings, but touches are sparse and local. We present a single topology-agnostic estimator that reconstructs the full mesh of a deformable object from only a few touches and no vision, using one permutation-invariant cross-attention architecture that handles a 1D rope, a 2D cloth, and a 3D volumetric soft body. The learned estimator reduces reconstruction error by roughly two-thirds relative to non-learned geometric mesh completion and a Gaussian-process surface baseline, and it outperforms a simpler global-pool set encoder, with the gap growing as more touches are observed. We then show that the estimator's deep-ensemble uncertainty can be used to learn where to touch next, which lowers error further and beats both random touching and a Gaussian-process active baseline at sparse budgets. This gain is modest on average but grows with self-occlusion and on the error tail. When vision is also available, where to touch barely matters, motivating the vision-free setting we study.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) generate predictions on structured data via in-context learning, without task-specific estimation. We ask whether TFMs can be effectively applied to discrete choice, a central demand estimation framework in marketing and operations, and find that directly applying TFMs yields limited performance. The gap is structural: TFMs assume row-independent observations, whereas discrete choice is inherently set-valued and subject to persistent consumer preference heterogeneity. We propose a reformulation that encodes both choice-set dependence and individual heterogeneity within a row-based learning framework. Evaluated on a yogurt scanner panel, individual-level heterogeneity encoding is the dominant driver of predictive accuracy. The best reformulation outperforms hierarchical Bayesian estimation by 8% in holdout log-likelihood and 3.6% in hit rate, running 16 times faster, a practical advantage for large-scale demand estimation. The advantage is largest in the medium-data regime (10--40 purchase occasions per consumer), where parametric Bayesian shrinkage most distorts estimates for atypical consumers. Fine-tuning on population choice data provides additional gains for consumers with shallow purchase histories, where in-context learning has limited individual-specific signal to condition on. These results establish a principled approach for applying foundation models to consumer choice problems more broadly.

Sensor-rich data-driven applications increasingly use Bayesian approaches to infer latent states of dynamic systems from noisy sensor measurements and physical models. Yet the computation of the likelihood remains an essential bottleneck for accurate posteriors and performant inference. This paper presents a Bayesian filtering technique that uses processor-native uncertainty tracking for both uncertainty propagation and inference. The technique implements deterministic hierarchical importance restructuring through a native operation, giving deterministic latency and bounded memory use for arbitrary models written as program code. Benchmarks across three nonlinear state-space systems compare the approach against particle filters and Monte-Carlo-based likelihood estimators. The technique enables deterministic approximate filtering with as high as 805$\times$ average speedup against direct Monte Carlo work at matched result quality for model evaluation, and Pareto-dominant accuracy-latency trade-offs for posterior inference while remaining competitive in RMSE with baseline particle filters.

Many geometric statistics and manifold learning pipelines routinely produce observations -- such as tangent vectors or local frames -- whose natural home is a varying family of fibers attached to different points of a base manifold, rather than a single shared vector space. Forming empirical averages requires transporting these observations to a common reference fiber, thereby introducing curvature- and holonomy-driven effects that are absent from classical concentration theory. We develop a non-asymptotic concentration theory for such transported empirical means, deriving finite-sample, dimension-free Hoeffding- and Bernstein-type bounds via sharp Hilbert-space inequalities. When shortest paths to the reference point are non-unique, transport becomes path-dependent and introduces a deterministic holonomy bias; we isolate and quantify this bias through bundle curvature and loop geometry, with sharp closed-form formulas for the tangent bundle of a round sphere. The resulting bias-variance decomposition separates the stochastic fluctuation decaying at the classical $n^{-1/2}$ rate in sample size $n$, from a curvature-driven error floor that no amount of additional data can eliminate; minimax lower bounds confirm both terms are unavoidable. We further establish a robust median-of-means estimator achieving optimal rates under heavy tails and the central limit theorem in the reference fiber. Controlled experiments on the sphere validate all theoretical predictions.

We propose a two-stage estimator for structural mediation parameters that combines deep representation learning with G-estimation under the "no essential heterogeneity" (NEH) assumption. We call the method UNIT. In the first stage,TARNet estimates the heterogeneous effect of a randomized treatment on a mediator by learning a shared covariate representation across treatment arms.The resulting conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimate provides a plug-in approximation to the heterogeneity-dependent component of the weight function entering the G-estimating equation of Zheng and Zhou (2015), which identifies the structural parameters even in the presence of unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding. We show that more accurate first-stage representation learning can yield a more informative plug-in weight and thereby improve the precision of the structural parameter estimator. In simulations with non-Gaussian covariates and nonlinear mediator effects, TARNet weights reduce the Stage-2 standard error of the mediation coefficient by a factor of $1.45$ to $1.51$ (median across replications, $n \ge 2000$) relative to the classical approach, at no cost to bias or coverage.

Typical semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods rely on distributional assumptions, and their performance degrades when these are violated. While PNU learning, a risk rewriting method, offers a distribution-free alternative, it is restricted to binary classification and its variance optimality remains unclear. In this paper, we propose a generalized framework that constructs unbiased risk estimators using linear combinations of component risks, subsuming PNU learning and extending to multiclass classification. We derive the minimum achievable variance, demonstrating our estimator can attain lower variance than PNU in asymmetric loss scenarios. Furthermore, we establish a generalization bound directly linking this variance reduction to improved learning performance. Based on these theoretical insights, we introduce two practical SSL methods that empirically match or outperform existing approaches on binary and multiclass benchmarks.

The impact of a given training point on a statistical model is classically measured through its leave-one-out influence, which quantifies the effect of its removal from the training set on the model accuracy. While the statistics of leave-one-out influences are well understood in the low-dimensional, large sample limit $n\to \infty, d=O(1)$, they become more intricate in high dimensions, as the influence of a given sample develops non-trivial dependencies on all other training samples. For convex M-estimation under Gaussian design, in the high-dimensional limit $n\asymp d$, we show that the distribution of the influences across the training set converges to a limiting measure which we sharply characterize. Building on these results, we provide evidence that influential samples tend to lie close to the decision boundary, thereby making contact with a standard data selection heuristic in active learning.

In this paper, we study quantile-based distributional reinforcement learning from the perspective of statistical efficiency. We focus on distributional policy evaluation, whose goal is to characterize the return distribution, namely the distribution of discounted cumulative rewards under a given policy. To obtain a finite-dimensional representation of the return distribution, we consider the quantile fixed point $η_m$ induced by the quantile-projected distributional Bellman equation. Assuming access to a generative model, we construct an estimator $η_m^{(n)}$ based on an empirical Markov decision process. For a fixed number of quantiles $m$, we establish a non-asymptotic error bound for $η_m^{(n)}$ and $η_m$ under the supremum $W_\infty$ metric, showing that the estimation error scales as $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{m/n})$ with respect to $m$ and $n$. This implies that the quantile-based distributional policy evaluation problem can be solved with sample efficiency, achieving the optimal parametric $\sqrt{n}$ convergence rate. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the quantile parameters $\sqrt{n}(θ_m^{(n)}-θ_m)$ and characterize the semiparametric efficiency bound, which is attained by our estimator. Beyond the fixed-dimensional setting, we investigate the asymptotic regime in which the number of quantiles diverges. We characterize the limit covariance structure and show that it matches the semiparametric efficiency bound of the nonparametric model for distributional policy evaluation, showing that quantile-based estimators remain asymptotically efficient in the infinite-dimensional limit. Finally, we establish a Berry--Esseen theorem for smooth functionals $\sqrt{n}(η_m^{(n)}(s)-η_m(s))f$, thereby providing a foundation for statistically valid inference on functionals of the quantile-projected return distribution.

Active testing provides a label--efficient approach to risk estimation by adaptively selecting which test points should be labelled. However, existing estimators fail to exploit the informative predictions of powerful black--box models, even though such predictions are increasingly available in settings where labels remain expensive. To address this, we propose \textbf{Prediction--Powered Active Testing (PPAT)}, a novel label--efficient risk estimation framework that combines the unbiased LURE estimator \citep{farquhar2021statistical} with a prediction--powered control variate. Rather than using proxy predictions as biased pseudo--labels, PPAT uses them to residualise the loss, preserving unbiasedness while reducing variance. Beyond the estimator itself, PPAT also changes which points should be acquired: we derive oracle and practical surrogate--based acquisition rules tailored to reducing the variance of our estimator. Moreover, we establish asymptotic normality for PPAT, yielding asymptotically valid confidence intervals and thus a principled estimate of the uncertainty around our estimates. Across tabular regression and image--classification tasks, PPAT outperforms existing methods in risk estimation, while its confidence intervals attain the target coverage with substantially fewer labels and smaller widths.

The k-means++ algorithm is commonly restarted multiple times to avoid poor local optima, yet the number of restarts is almost always chosen arbitrarily and applied uniformly regardless of data set difficulty. This undermines any comparison relying on such a choice and wastes computation on easy data sets while potentially under-serving hard ones. We introduce GTRC, a restart criterion combining a Good-Turing estimate, a proven unconditional bound, and a confidence-based bound on the probability that a further restart would improve on the current result, stopping once this probability falls below a user-specified tolerance $\varepsilon$. Across 36 data sets, GTRC reached clustering quality competitive with well-chosen fixed restart counts, while the number of restarts used varied considerably and appropriately with data set difficulty, governed by an interpretable, data-dependent signal rather than a fixed rule. GTRC offers a principled and reportable alternative to fixing the number of $k$-means++ restarts in advance. Software:https://github.com/RCdeAmorim/Good-Turing-Restart-Criterion.

Estimating original-space conditional expectations is central to value-driven recommender systems, including dwell time, GMV, and LTV forecasting. Standard MSE is expectation-consistent in principle, but its gradients become unstable on heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and multimodal targets, causing mean collapse and tail shrinkage. Target transformation alleviates this scale conflict, yet any useful nonlinear marginal transform loses expectation consistency under direct inversion. This is not an implementation oversight: a direct inverse-transform estimator is universally expectation-consistent only when the inverse transform is affine, which cannot simultaneously provide bounded tail compression. Existing conditionally linear recovery methods restore expectation consistency, but still leave open which coordinate, inverse lookup, recovery base, and deployment monitor should be selected for sparse complex marginals. We propose \textbf{P}robability-\textbf{I}ntegral-\textbf{TranS}formed \textbf{Un}biased recovery (\textbf{PIT-SUN}), a deployable empirical marginal recovery framework. PIT-SUN uses one empirical marginal table to define a bounded normal-score coordinate, its inverse-quantile lookup, a variance-controlled recovery base, and drift monitoring, then applies multiplicative SUN recovery to estimate the original-space expectation instead of directly inverting transformed predictions. Experiments on synthetic distributions, public benchmarks, large-scale industrial datasets, and online deployment show robust improvements in point accuracy, calibration, and ranking quality with lightweight deployment overhead.

Gradient estimation -- the task of computing the gradient of the expected value of a probabilistic program -- has diverse applications in scientific computing, but is notoriously difficult because of issues such as high-dimensional integration, discrete random choices, and complex stochastic dependencies. This article introduces gradient inference, a new approach to developing sound and efficient gradient estimators for probabilistic programs. Gradient inference rests on a formal reduction from a gradient estimation problem to a closely related probabilistic inference problem, whose solution can be differentiated to obtain a gradient estimator. This inference problem is obtained by applying two powerful statistical operations -- coupling and factorization -- to the input probabilistic program. Our reduction lets us leverage the rich toolkit of probabilistic inference algorithms to design novel gradient estimators that extend and improve upon existing methods. We introduce GradInf, a probabilistic programming system that facilitates the sound and automated implementation of gradient inference. GradInf is centered around programmable source-to-source transformations for coupling and factorizing higher-order probabilistic programs, whose soundness is proven in terms of a denotational semantics. Key to our development is the use of information-flow typing to allow random choices in a probabilistic program to be factored out and partially evaluated, which improves our ability to deploy sophisticated probabilistic inference algorithms. The resulting system offers practitioners a principled framework for designing gradient estimators. We apply GradInf to several challenging case studies, showing that it can express prominent gradient estimators from the literature and enables the construction of new state-of-the-art estimators that outperform the best existing baselines.

Memory-efficient optimizers such as GaLore train large language models by projecting gradients onto a rank-r subspace recomputed every T steps, assuming this subspace is a slowly drifting object that can be tracked. We show that beyond a small reproducible core, there is no such object. Two estimates of the top-r subspace computed at the same step from disjoint minibatches disagree as much as estimates computed T steps apart (0.73 vs 0.74 of the maximal chordal distance sqrt(2r), at Pythia-160M with r=128): the apparent rotation at each refresh is dominated by estimator noise. This holds across four model families in three architecture classes from 70M to 6.9B parameters, strengthening with scale, and more weakly in a vision transformer. Only ~39 of 128 directions are reproducible across minibatches, and averaging cannot recover the rest: under N-fold averaging the gradient's spectral tail shrinks as N^(-1/4) rather than the N^(-1/2) of pure noise, so no averaging budget makes the subspace well defined. What helps instead follows from treating each refresh as a change of coordinates for Adam's state. Carrying the second moment blindly is provably about (r-k*)/2 worse than the best rotation-blind estimator, while the first moment transports exactly through the rotation, the optimal linear map under isotropic gradients and the rule LDAdam uses. At 1B over 40k steps (3 seeds), full LDAdam reaches 18.7 perplexity at beta2=0.999, beating untransported GaLore after its best beta2 fix (19.3); shortening the second-moment memory to beta2=0.99 helps the refreshing optimizers, though for canonical GaLore the effect is small and a full-rank control reverses it. One measurable fact, subspace non-identifiability, clarifies why GaLore works, which patches work, and what to check before trusting a low-rank assumption: the reproducible rank k*.

Recovering dynamic environment maps from a single in-the-wild video is crucial for photorealistic rendering, yet remains a challenge. Recent video generation models can produce photorealistic scenes with complex lighting, possessing an inherent understanding of lighting. In this paper, we introduce V-LITE (Video generation models are inherent lighting estimators), a framework that unlocks this internal knowledge by reframing lighting estimation as a guided video inpainting task. Inspired by VFX industry practices, we insert a synthetic chrome ball into the scene to compel the model to generate physically plausible reflections from the surrounding spatio-temporal context. To bridge the gap from LDR-native models to the HDR domain, we design an HDR-aware VAE and employ an efficient LoRA-based fine-tuning strategy. We then construct a mixed dataset comprising high-fidelity HDR images to provide realistic HDR priors, and in-the-wild HDR videos to provide dynamic spatio-temporal context. Extensive experiments demonstrate that V-LITE produces temporally coherent HDR environment maps, revealing that modern video diffusion models are not merely synthesizers but also powerful, inherently capable estimators of physical scene lighting.

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$. This paper develops the statistical theory that makes the word "reliable" precise for such estimators. We decompose estimator variance into a persona-draw component $σ_P^2$ and a within-run component $σ_w^2$, give unbiased ANOVA estimators of both, and derive the variance-optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget between outer persona draws and inner replications. A coupling-based stability bound quantifies how misestimation of $\mathcal{P}$ and error in the trained policy propagate into the estimand, yielding a three-term total-error budget whose terms are separately estimable; a uniform-in-horizon version holds under a Doeblin condition on the market chain. The main contribution is an identification theory for heterogeneous news reaction: under a fixed response nonlinearity, the aggregate impact curve $A(z)=\mathbb{E}_Q[g(ηz)]$ detects heterogeneous news sensitivity through a strict Jensen gap and identifies the distribution $Q$ locally via odd moments and Hausdorff determinacy, with sharp failure when the response family is unknown. We provide $\sqrt{n}$-consistent estimators and a boundary-corrected test of homogeneous news reaction. Two separation theorems delimit when PTMC is provably preferable to homogeneous-population simulators and reduced-form forecasters, formalizing an irreducible Jensen bias floor and the Lucas critique as a minimax limit on intervention extrapolation. All proofs are given in full; guarantees are classified as unconditional (Monte Carlo convergence), conditional worst-case (the error budget), or open (the large-$K$ mean-field limit).

Minimum maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) estimation has emerged as a robust and likelihood-free alternative to maximum likelihood estimation for parameter estimation. Yet, despite its practical success, the associated optimization problem remains poorly understood, with theoretical guarantees for existing algorithms hinging on convexity assumptions that rarely hold in practice. We address this gap by proposing a preconditioned gradient descent (PGD) scheme, establishing its asymptotic \emph{global} convergence under explicit gradient-dominance and projection-residual conditions. Our approach is inspired by recent progress on MMD gradient flows, a nonparametric descent scheme on the space of probability measures. We provide extensive empirical evidence that our PGD scheme outperforms standard gradient descent across a range of challenging parameter estimation and composite hypothesis testing problems.

Mutual information (MI) estimation is a central problem in machine learning and statistics; however, existing benchmarks typically evaluate estimators on simplified, low-dimensional distributions, leaving their performance on complex, realistic data largely unexplored. We address this gap with a comprehensive benchmarking framework grounded in a unified copula-theoretic perspective that subsumes existing benchmarks as special cases. Within this framework, we propose two complementary families of tests: a copula-first family that systematically varies ground-truth MI, dimensionality, and marginal complexity using synthetic and flow-based transformations; and a marginals-first family that couples real-world image data with controlled dependency structures, extending the classic same-class-pairing paradigm. We use this suite to extensively evaluate three classes of estimators: non-parametric, discriminative, and generative. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, our results indicate that there is no universal winner: each category can systematically outperform all other estimators under specific setups. By analyzing these cases, we identify fundamental estimation barriers and propose new tests that more effectively stress these specific limitations. We share the open source code at https://github.com/VanessB/mutinfo.

We ask whether interaction is necessary for order-optimal 1-bit mean estimation over nonparametric finite-moment classes. Adaptive threshold-query protocols achieve the order-optimal 1-bit minimax rate, and the same rate is attainable with general 1-bit queries using only one adaptive transition (i.e., two stages of querying). In the non-adaptive setting, threshold and interval queries are known to be highly suboptimal, but the case of arbitrary non-adaptive quantizers remains unresolved. Can such quantizers match the adaptive rate, yielding an optimal one-shot protocol? Or is the known two-stage estimator stage-optimal, with a single adaptive transition being necessary and sufficient?