Partially Observable Markov Decision Process

We study decentralized partially observable team decision problems with low-rank latent dynamics and unknown system models. The proposed framework combines team-theoretic equivalence with low-rank model representations to address cooperative decision-making in partially observable Markov decision processes without prior knowledge of the transition model. Each team member makes decisions based on local private information and delayed common information shared across the team. Using only this available information, each member learns an approximate low-rank Markov decision process and applies least-squares value iteration to compute its policy. This yields a fully decentralized learning and planning algorithm that requires neither a centralized coordinator nor centralized training. We show that the resulting member-side solutions approximate the centralized team solution: despite partial observability, unknown dynamics, and delayed common information, each member recovers the corresponding component of an approximate team-optimal policy. We further establish finite-sample performance guarantees and derive a corresponding sample-complexity bound for the proposed algorithm.

In many real-world planning tasks, agents must tackle uncertainty about the environment's state and variability in the outcomes of any chosen policy. We address both forms of uncertainty as a first step toward safer algorithms in partially observable settings. Specifically, we extend Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL)-which models the entire return distribution for fully observable domains-to Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), allowing an agent to learn the distribution of returns for each conditional plan. Concretely, we introduce new distributional Bellman operators for partial observability and prove their convergence under the supremum p-Wasserstein metric. We also propose a finite representation of these return distributions via psi-vectors, generalizing the classical alpha-vectors in POMDP solvers. Building on this, we develop Distributional Point-Based Value Iteration (DPBVI), which integrates psi-vectors into a standard point-based backup procedure-bridging DistRL and POMDP planning. By tracking return distributions, DPBVI lays the foundation for future risk-sensitive control in domains where rare, high-impact events must be carefully managed. We provide source code to foster further research in robust decision-making under partial observability.

Online residual learning can reduce model mismatch in predictive control, but passive data collection may fail to adequately cover states that become important later in the task. Task-agnostic active learning targets uncertain or informative regions, but information acquired in such regions does not necessarily improve task performance. This paper introduces Task-Oriented Information Acquisition (ToIA), an active-learning criterion for model predictive path integral control (MPPI) with online Gaussian process (GP) residual learning. For each sampled control sequence, ToIA estimates how much an observation obtained early in the rollout would reduce predictive uncertainty at later states on the same rollout, and weights this reduction by the rollout's relevance to the task. The score is evaluated over the existing MPPI rollout batch without sampling future observations or re-optimizing control under hypothetical posterior updates. In simulated off-road navigation across held-out maps with heterogeneous terrain, ToIA improved the goal-reaching success rate over passive GP learning by 19.3 and 27.4 percentage points and outperformed task-agnostic active-learning baselines across dense and sparse online-learning intervals. An ablation study indicates that task relevance is particularly important under sparse model updates. The implementation supports online control at 20 Hz on an NVIDIA RTX 2080 Ti.

Can a logged dataset visit every hidden state frequently and still be exponentially uninformative about a target policy's value? We show that it can when the logger depends on history. For every horizon $H \ge 3$, we construct two POMDPs with at most two latent states per stage, three actions, and a common logger with three memory states. Action coverage, belief coverage, and two behavior-marginal outcome-revealing conditions all have constants independent of $H$. Nevertheless, evaluating a known deterministic target policy to accuracy $1/8$ requires $Θ((3/2)^H \log(1/δ))$ logged episodes at confidence $1-δ$, for $0 < δ\le 1/4$, even when both candidate models are known. The mechanism is simple: a reset erases the unknown transition that determines the target value. We characterize the resulting statistical experiment exactly and obtain a matching optimal estimator. A directed two-lane gridworld realizes the construction, and trajectory simulations agree with its finite-sample prediction. The result establishes intractability for the history-dependent-logging, model-based case posed by Zhang and Jiang (2025, arXiv:2503.01134), under their behavior-marginal definition of revealing.

Cyberattacks against Operational Technology (OT) systems, which monitor and control industrial processes, pose an increasing threat to essential societal services. For this reason, developing automated intrusion response strategies is highly important. In this paper, we present a formal model of an OT intrusion response use case using the POMDP framework. It includes a realistic model of partial observability that is based on traffic measurements. This approach allows us to develop tractable, learning-based solution methods for automated intrusion response, which are based on PPO. We evaluate the obtained response strategies on an emulated OT system and find that they are effective against several types of MITRE attacks for the studied use case.

Large language model agents produce fluent action sequences across a wide range of tasks, yet they fail in characteristic ways once the environment becomes partially observable. Ambiguous feedback pushes them into premature commitments. A single informative observation can collapse their uncertainty onto the wrong hypothesis. Policies drift as the history grows. We trace these symptoms to a common structural cause. An LLM agent, as commonly deployed, is a history-conditioned policy with no explicit belief over hidden state. We propose an architectural fix. The Belief-State Engine (BSE) is an inference module placed outside the LLM. It maintains a Bayesian posterior over the latent states of a given POMDP (Partially Observable Markov Decision Process) model, and at each decision step it exposes only that posterior to the LLM. The raw action-observation log is not shown. We set out a minimal four-axiom specification of what a belief-consistent internal state must satisfy, and prove that the LLM paired with the BSE is a sound Markov policy on the belief MDP induced by the underlying POMDP. It therefore inherits the Bellman optimality guarantees of classical POMDP theory, provided the LLM is never exposed to the raw history. We evaluate the architecture on the Tiger POMDP and a red-team attack-graph task, against six baselines: a reactive LLM, Chain-of-Thought, ReAct, a natural-language belief tracker, QMDP, and POMCP. Across both domains, the BSE-augmented agent improves task return, belief calibration, and decision consistency. Ten targeted ablations isolate the contribution of each architectural choice confirms that the effect is not specific to any one model. Code, environment specifications, prompt templates, and seed logs accompany this paper.

Timed Partial Orders (TPOs), originally proposed for workflows, provide an interpretable framework for robot task specification with planning algorithms based on mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). However, TPOs are limited in expressivity, capturing only partial-order events with simple timing constraints. In this paper, we introduce Conditional TPOs (cTPOs), which extend TPOs with richer relative-timing constraints and conditional event activations based on environmental conditions. We show that planning for cTPOs also reduces to an MILP problem; however, the added expressivity results in significantly larger MILPs that can become computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we propose a decomposition algorithm that partitions a cTPO into smaller sub-TPOs, yielding a sequence of smaller MILP problems. We prove that this decomposition is complete and preserves plan optimality while improving the interpretability of complex tasks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of cTPOs as a task specification framework and the efficiency of our decomposition approach, achieving up to four orders of magnitude speedup over the monolithic MILP.

Online planning under uncertainty remains a fundamental challenge for robotic systems operating in partially observable environments with high-dimensional state spaces. While sampling-based POMDP solvers enable approximate decision-making in large or continuous domains, their performance degrades as belief dimensionality increases due to the high variance inherent in Monte Carlo-based estimation. In this work, we extend the Rao-Blackwellized online POMDP (RB-POMDP) framework to improve its generalizability in high-dimensional settings through hybrid continuous-discrete belief representations. By analytically propagating uncertainty associated with marginalized state components during tree-based planning, the proposed approach reduces sampling-induced variance in value estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework in a robotic search-and-rescue task by integrating it with FastSLAM 2.0. Experimental results show that the proposed planner achieves higher cumulative rewards using significantly fewer particles and planning simulations than purely sampling-based methods under equivalent computational budgets. These results suggest that structured high-dimensional robotic problems admitting tractable sufficient statistics can be effectively leveraged within the RB-POMDP framework for computationally feasible online decision-making.

We study a Restart POMDP (Partially Observable Markov Decision Process) on a general Borel state space, where the controller either lets the hidden state evolve unobserved or restarts the system and observes the new state. Exploiting a sufficient-statistic representation consisting of the last observed state and the elapsed time since restart, we reduce the problem to a fully observed MDP. Under a natural one-step cost deterioration condition, we prove that optimal policies have a threshold structure in the elapsed time for both the discounted and total undiscounted cost criteria. When the state space is partially ordered and the kernel is stochastically monotone, we further show that the optimal threshold is nonincreasing in the state. For the average cost criterion, under additional assumptions of geometric ergodicity and domination of the transient gain, we establish analogous threshold results via the vanishing discount approach, after showing the uniform boundedness of the optimal thresholds and relative value functions.

Intermodal freight networks face growing disruption risk from climate extremes that degrade multiple corridors simultaneously. To address this, we formulate freight routing as a Dec-POMDP with per-shipment action granularity and train Independent PPO (IPPO) under Centralized Training with Decentralized Execution, comparing against two heuristic baselines with privileged state access on a 15-hub network under hurricane disruption. Across 30 matched episodes, no single policy dominates: IPPO achieves the highest throughput ($+12.7\%$) and delivery rate while a capacity-aware heuristic leads on Resilience Index (RI) and delay. Under demand surge (2.9:1 capacity ratio), IPPO's RI advantage grows to $+6.4\%$, suggesting learned routing is most valuable when capacity is scarce. A Multi-Agent PPO (MAPPO) variant collapses under train-eval queue mismatch ($\mathrm{RI} = 0.811$); retraining recovers RI to $1.018$ but IPPO still leads on throughput, pointing to residual limitations in centralized critics under per-shipment dispatch.

Autonomous exploration missions require decision-making under sensor uncertainty and computational constraints, yet integrating scientific representations into POMDP planning has remained intractable due to high-dimensional observation spaces. Information-theoretic planners overcome this by assuming deterministic observations, sacrificing the principled uncertainty quantification that POMDPs provide. We introduce the Science Hypothesis Map POMDP (SHM-POMDP), which makes science-driven belief-space planning more tractable by branching on inferred physical properties rather than raw sensor data. This preserves full sensor information through learned observation models while enabling the planner to reason jointly about navigation and scientific properties under uncertainty. On an extended RockSample domain with 50-dimensional observations, SHM-POMDP achieves 18.6% higher rewards and 32.9% reduced computation time per step than continuous-observation baselines. On realistic geologic exploration using Cuprite hyperspectral data, SHM-POMDP achieves 2.5$\times$ higher information gain than the best information-theoretic baseline by maintaining beliefs and replanning adaptively---reaching 80% of oracle performance using only uniform priors. These results demonstrate that integrating hierarchical probabilistic models into belief-space planning enables tractable, principled autonomous science that outperforms both traditional POMDP methods and science-aware information-theoretic approaches.

In noisy social dilemmas, intended actions are stochastically corrupted before execution, so an observed defection may reflect hostile intent or action error. Standard Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulations treat executed actions as states, structurally precluding this distinction and causing systematic over-retaliation. We introduce a Partially Observable MDP (POMDP) formulation encoding opponent intentions as latent states and executed actions as noisy observations, solved within the active inference (AIF) framework with a cost function that decomposes into epistemic and pragmatic components that jointly address inferring current intent and learning how intent evolves. In the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma with symmetric noise, we derive a critical noise threshold governing cooperation collapse, connecting it to a fixed-point condition on learned priors. Experiments reveal that the value of intention inference is context-dependent: the POMDP provides consistent advantages against conditionally cooperative opponents, but mutual intention inference under sufficient noise produces correlated belief-driven collapse. The advantage is specific to games where intent attribution is decision-relevant.

Assistance games formalize human-robot collaboration under asymmetric information: the human knows the goal, while the robot must infer it from observation and interaction in order to assist effectively. In general, computing optimal assistance game strategies online is intractable, since exact solutions require planning in a POMDP. We identify a class of assistance games in which pragmatic-pedagogic reasoning resolves goal uncertainty in a single time step, rendering the full-horizon game exactly solvable by a tractable best-response procedure. Within this class, we show that mainstream inverse optimal control exhibits an inference ceiling that hinders alignment, while pragmatic-pedagogic reasoning overcomes this barrier by immediately disambiguating goals through actions that look equivalent under task execution alone. Finally, we validate our theoretical results and proposed method on a simple collaborative block-building example.

An agent acting under partial observability must retain a recursively updateable statistic of history that restores the Markov property, but the smallest such statistic is generally unknown. We characterize this minimal Markov sufficient statistic for holonomy-cover decision processes, a structured POMDP class in which the visible dynamics are Markov and every realized visible transition applies a fixed permutation to a hidden mode. In particular, we construct the stable quotient, the coarsest observation-wise abstraction preserving one-step rewards and quotient successors, and prove that the pair of the current observation and stable class forms an exact finite Markov state. When the current class is correctly initialized, exact class tracking requires exactly the minimal memory symbols, in the sense that under reachability and pairwise decision separation at a maximizing observation, no arbitrary finite-memory controller can use fewer. Under resettable diagnostics, nearest-prototype class inference has exponentially decaying error, and a calibrate-then-restart reduction transfers finite-MDP guarantees to the recovered state. The results enable \emph{Holonomy Memory Reinforcement Learning}. It represents memory by the current stable class, updates it through ordered edge transports, identifies local class coordinates when diagnostics are available, and applies a standard finite-MDP RL backbone after synchronization. Experiments recover an exact compression from raw states to quotient states and achieve perfect paired-order accuracy with three decision-time memory states, matching the quotient oracle and outperforming the non-oracle baselines.

Current spacecraft collision-avoidance operations rely on intermittent ground-station contacts, requiring operators to plan with delayed and asynchronously updated information. Consequently, maneuvers must be planned with only intermittent information sharing between operators, raising the question of how much coordination is needed to achieve collision-avoidance performance comparable to centralized planning. Although decision-theoretic approaches such as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) capture the sequential and uncertain nature of collision avoidance, existing multiagent extensions typically assume either continuous information sharing or communication models that do not reflect operational ground-station constraints. To explicitly model this intermittent information availability, we formulate the spacecraft-to-spacecraft collision avoidance problem as a semi-decentralized POMDP (SDec-POMDP), where we govern information propagation directly by realistic ground-station visibility windows. Joint maneuver policies are computed using approximate Recursive Small-Step Semi-Decentralized A* (RS-SDA*), following the state-of-the-art A*-based lineage for decentralized multiagent planning. Across a representative suite of conjunction scenarios, semi-decentralized planning recovers near-centralized maneuver quality while requiring 28.5% fewer synchronization events than continuous coordination. Comparisons with representative rule-based operator heuristics further show that communication-aware planning more consistently achieves the desired operational miss-distance band while minimizing unnecessary trajectory deviation. Together, these results establish a practical planning framework for autonomous collision avoidance under realistic intermittent communication, bridging the gap between idealized centralized coordination and fully decentralized planning execution.

Path planning under partial observability remains challenging because an agent must make long-horizon navigation decisions from only locally bounded observations. Nevertheless, historical trajectories contain reusable experience-guided directional preferences. Classical planners, however, typically solve each instance from scratch and lack an explicit mechanism to exploit such transferable decision knowledge, often leading to redundant node expansions and locally myopic search behaviors. Motivated by this limitation, this paper proposes ImiPath, a prior-guided learning framework that distills reusable spatiotemporal decision priors from demonstration trajectories and uses them as experience-informed directional guidance to bias planners toward reliable and promising search directions under partial observability. Specifically, ImiPath first constructs a local spatiotemporal observation representation, which encodes the spatial information of the local environment and the temporal information of historical trajectories. The SpatioTemporal-Attention Policy Network (STAPNet) then transforms this representation into dicision priors. These priors are further incorporated into heterogeneous planners as directional guidance, biasing the search toward locally promising regions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ImiPath achieves competitive path quality and improves search efficiency by reducing redundant node expansions under local observability. Additional physical experiments on a magnetic microrobot platform further validate the adaptability and practical deployment potential of the proposed framework.

Dense per-step supervision is the standard remedy for sparse-reward long-horizon LLM agents: reward the policy for predicting its next observation, which looks provably safe under potential-based shaping. Published prediction-reward and auxiliary-loss variants report both successes and instabilities; we supply the controlled account: 74 preregistered arms dissect one fixed prediction signal under GRPO across ALFWorld, WebShop, a synthetic POMDP, and Qwen3-1.7B/4B/8B, varying only the delivery mechanism. (1) Every run sustaining this difference-form reward under untouched std normalization (no filtering, dynamic-sampling, or decoupling mitigations) collapses: eleven runs across scales, coefficients, group sizes, and groupings (the floor-bound synthetic environment stalls instead); ALFWorld runs end in an absorbing state (prediction accuracy -> 1.0, success -> 0): the optimizer builds the "dark room". The algebra is one line: in all-fail groups z-scoring cancels the shaping coefficient; removing only std normalization restores baseline parity. (2) A signal's danger is set by its within-group variance trajectory, plus hackability as a second axis; it retrodicts every reward-channel collapse and survives preregistered prospective tests. (3) The same signal as a teacher-forced auxiliary loss is harmless on ALFWorld at 4B, but the gain is not the signal's: content-free placebos as a class match or beat gold at both matched seeds (s0: 78.8 vs 68.6; s42: 67.9 vs 57.9); the auxiliary update is the regularizer. (4) At 8B the recipe turns bistable: gold full-weight locks two of three seeds; every content-free or reduced-weight arm stays healthy. No ALFWorld or WebShop reward-channel variant measurably beats its matched-normalization baseline and no gold signal measurably outperforms its content-free placebo: the delivery channel, not the content, decides; which channel is safe is regime-dependent.

This paper addresses key technical challenges in current large language model (LLM) agent applications, including long-horizon planning, sparse reward attribution, and dynamic environmental interaction, by designing and optimizing an intelligent agent workflow. The proposed architecture is based on the synthesis of core AI paradigms: Visual, Language, Generative, Graph, Multimodal, Reinforcement, and Agent Intelligence. Unlike conventional baseline models that rely on static prompting and lack robust perception-action loops, our approach introduces a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) routing mechanism. This mechanism is augmented with an internal, self-correcting reward model that evaluates decision trajectories before execution. By integrating multimodal inputs and advanced reinforcement learning principles (such as proximal policy optimization and value function approximation), the agent maintains long-term structural memory and dynamically adapts its reasoning pathways to mitigate error accumulation. Empirical experiments on the ALFWorld embodied simulation environment and the WebShop online navigation benchmark demonstrate a 24.5% absolute improvement in task success rate and trajectory efficiency over mainstream baselines like the standard ReAct framework. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm the significant contribution of the reward-driven critique module in suppressing hallucination rates. This research bridges theoretical foundations of reinforcement learning and graph-based memory with autonomous agent workflows. Ultimately, the resulting architecture offers a practical, scalable reference framework for developing artificial intelligence technologies in complex, multi-step autonomous systems. Code is available at https://github.com/01Amez/RLAW_Implementation.

An agent acting under partial observability must decide when to gather information and which observations are worth their cost. Standard POMDPs value information only through its eventual effect on reward. The $ρ$-POMDP framework instead rewards uncertainty reduction directly, through a belief-dependent utility $ρ$, but in practice both the choice of $ρ$ and the weight placed on it are tuned by hand for every task. We show that active inference removes this tuning entirely. Minimizing Expected Free Energy (EFE) is exactly equivalent to solving a $ρ$-POMDP whose utility is expected information gain, and the exploration weight is fixed at $w=1$ because the variational bound expresses pragmatic and epistemic value in the same units (nats). We prove this equivalence for observe-then-commit POMDPs and extend it to factored observation POMDPs, a broader class that covers interleaved observe-act problems such as non-destructive testing and mobile sensing, where gathering information leaves the hidden state unchanged. Experiments support the theory. Across environments ranging from the classic Tiger problem to RockSample and a new Structural Inspection benchmark with over 65,000 states, the untuned weight matches or outperforms reward-only planning at the same horizon, avoids the over-exploration of bonuses tuned per task, and sits near the reward-maximizing knee of the success-reward Pareto frontier. The practical payoff is an exploration objective that works out of the box. In applications such as fault detection and medical screening, where every test has a price and every missed fault has a cost, EFE supplies a belief-dependent utility that is derived rather than tuned.

Current benchmarks for language models primarily evaluate execution on fully specified tasks. However, real user tasks are often ambiguous. Users arrive with incomplete, exploratory, or even inconsistent goals, requiring the assistant to first determine the intended task before carrying it out. We study this problem as task alignment: the ability to align with a user on their intended task. We introduce a general framework for converting specified tasks into underspecified interactions, formalized as a POMDP in which the model must infer a latent task from partial and evolving user intent. We validate our user simulator post hoc with a human user study. Across shopping, coding, and professional work settings, we find that while models often perform well once the task is specified, models still struggle with task alignment: current models act prematurely, interact ineffectively, and fail to resolve ambiguous requests. Models on average recover the user's intended task only 22-32% of the time under ambiguity. In a human study in the same setting, humans reach 48%, outperforming all evaluated models. We show that post-training with supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning improves task alignment, but models still lag behind humans in resolving uncertainty through interaction. Together, our results suggest that current models still lack key interaction abilities required for reliable agency.

This paper investigates the control of discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) systems subject to incomplete and corrupted measurements. Specifically, we focus on designing a Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) controller without relying on explicit state estimation. By leveraging minimum variance duality, our approach allows the current control input to be represented as a linear function of available measurements and previously applied inputs, successfully reducing the task to a tractable deterministic optimization problem. We provide theoretical justification for this framework and demonstrate its practical effectiveness through numerical experiments.

Finite Reliability Representations (FRR) certify when a cell-constant policy is sufficient for reliable decision-making in a partially observed system with a known physical noise floor. In practice, however, sensing and execution noise can be latent and context-dependent. This paper develops a certificate-aware active disambiguation framework for an unknown physical noise parameter theta = (sigma_y, sigma_u), with the sensor-only case obtained by fixing sigma_u. We define the Value of Noise Information (VoNI) as the expected excess FRR certificate gap caused by using a reliability cover calibrated to the current estimate rather than to the realized noise parameter. We bound VoNI using action-value model mismatch and FRR radius inflation, showing that noise estimation has low decision value in sub-crossover regimes where the FRR certificate is insensitive to theta, but becomes valuable when posterior uncertainty can invalidate the current cover. A bi-level decision maker uses a posterior over theta, obtained from innovation statistics, execution residuals, or another online estimator, and triggers diagnostic probing only when uncertainty threatens the FRR certificate. We also interpret VoNI as a tractable, certificate-aware approximation to a high-level finite POMDP for latent sensing-execution regime disambiguation. Under stationary, identifiable, and persistently exciting regimes, we establish posterior consistency and convergence of the induced policy loss to the FRR approximation floor. Closed-loop UGV simulations with EKF-based innovation residuals show earlier detection of abrupt sensing-noise jumps, lower drift-tracking error, and substantially fewer probing actions than posterior-entropy exploration over 50 Monte Carlo trials.

Multi-object search in unknown household environments requires planning under extensive uncertainty - from unknown object locations to cluttered spaces with unobserved obstacles. POMDPs offer a principled framework for such problems but remain intractable in large domains. We propose Inter-POMDP, a novel interleaved POMDP planning algorithm that decomposes this challenge into two interacting levels: a high-level POUCT planner reasons over object distributions using LLM-informed histogram beliefs, while a low-level motion planner models navigation uncertainty with obstacle-aware particle beliefs as domain knowledge to guide high-level POUCT. This interleaved design balances planning quality and efficiency despite the large search space across unknown multi-room environments. Both simulation and real-world experiments show that our Inter-POMDP algorithm reduces collision counts by up to 63%, navigation steps by up to 35%, and detection counts by up to 32% compared with baseline methods. Full videos are https://sites.google.com/view/inter-pomdp

The stochastic linear bandit, where actions are represented as vectors and rewards are linear, is a central paradigm for sequential decision making. We study a partially observed variant of this problem in which the learning agent only sees a random subset of coordinates for each action. Such partial observability arises naturally in settings like recommendation and healthcare, where full action descriptions can be expensive or even impossible to obtain. In general, this makes sublinear regret information-theoretically impossible. However, we show that this barrier can be overcome when the action vectors have low intrinsic dimension. We propose an algorithm, TOFU-POV, that estimates the latent action subspace using the masked actions, imputes current actions using an epoch-wise frozen representation, and runs OFUL in the resulting low-dimensional coordinates. Our theory shows that TOFU-POV enjoys a $\sqrt{T}$ regret that scales with the intrinsic action subspace dimension as opposed to the ambient dimension and quantifies the interaction between these quantities and the missingness, decision set size, and subspace conditioning. We also devise a rank-adaptive algorithm that does not require the knowledge of the intrinsic dimension. We complement these guarantees with a lower bound based on a novel product construction that separates usual reward-learning uncertainty from a missingness-dependent cost intrinsic to partial observation. Synthetic and real data experiments support our theory and show that TOFU-POV can substantially improve upon natural baselines in this challenging problem.

Living systems navigate environments using noisy and incomplete sensory signals. In unicellular algae, phototaxis is often modeled as a mechanistic run--tumble process driven by stimulus--response rules. However, such descriptions overlook how organisms actively sample their environment to reduce sensory ambiguity. From a minimal cognition perspective, we reframe this navigation as a subjective, information-driven sensorimotor process. To this end, we propose a framework linking a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) with biochemical reaction dynamics. Environmental variables are hidden, while the cell updates a minimal internal state from each observation through a memoryless Bayesian step. These internal dynamics balance orienting toward light with exploratory reorientation and can be implemented through Chemical-Reaction-Network Ordinary Differential Equations (CRN--ODEs). Our model includes a biophysical observation process for photoreception and a chemically computable polynomial bound on information gain. Using Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) on 30 experimentally recorded Chlamydomonas trajectories, we infer the behavioral objective consistent with observed phototactic motion and benchmark the resulting dynamics with standard Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) baselines. Our model reproduces the empirical alignment-to-light distribution, comparable to objective SSA baselines on this dataset. Within this framework, run--tumble alternation emerges as an information-acquisition strategy: tumbling reorients the cell to sample new sensory configurations and resolve sensor ambiguity, demonstrating how intracellular biochemical networks can support adaptive information-seeking behavior in cellular navigation.

Online planning in continuous partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) using $ω$-regular specifications requires handling continuous belief dynamics within the finite symbolic memory in order to track temporal progress. Existing methods based on either direct search in belief space or predefined discrete abstractions suffer from drawbacks, e.g., lack of symbolic memory for long-horizon logical progress or difficult to certify from noisy online beliefs. As such, obtaining reliable symbolic states online from continuous observations remains a challenge. To address this issue, we introduce the Revealed Belief Automaton (REBA), an event-driven framework that advances the research from global belief-space discretization to a fundamental new way of thinking, namely online certification of revelation events. Specifically, we propose an online revelation method that, through information-theoretic gates, can dynamically analyse and establish belief abstraction from the continuous belief space by discovering reliable anchors among noisy beliefs. We then develop an incremental topology adaptation mechanism over the certified anchors to realise the online finite Belief Automaton. By combining with the $ω$-regular specification, REBA is able to support formal parity policy synthesis without a predefined discrete abstraction, which in turn can guide the Monte Carlo Tree Search process to perform online search beyond its local horizon. In addition, we design an error decomposition analysis which can assess the effectiveness and reliability of this discrete guidance for the underlying continuous POMDP. Empirical evaluations in patrolling and navigation scenarios show that REBA matches or exceeds all evaluated baselines, with primary metric gains of +17.0% to +47.4% over state-of-the-art approaches.

This paper investigates mobile target search under imperfect perceptions caused by sensor limitations, malicious jamming, or communication noise. Searchers and targets operate in a grid-shaped area with bounded mobility, leading to a dynamic interplay between search and evasion. To capture this adversarial interaction under imperfect perceptions, we adopt the partially observable stochastic game (POSG) approach, which generalizes partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) by incorporating target intelligence. To handle false alarms and missed detections caused by perceptual uncertainties, we propose a novel detectability concept to determine whether a search strategy guarantees eventual detection, and provide sufficient detectability criteria based on stochastic recurrence analysis. We further develop a server-assisted distributed algorithm that utilizes the aggregative potential game structure for searchers and a KL-divergence-based reduction for target prediction. Numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and support the detectability analysis.

Planning under uncertainty is an essential capability for autonomous robots. The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) provides a powerful framework for such a capability. Although POMDP-based planning has advanced significantly, its application to real-world problems is often limited by the difficulty of obtaining faithful POMDP models. We present Vectorized Online planning wIth Learned diffusion model for POMDP Agents (VOiLA), a framework that learns task-agnostic POMDP models for online planning under uncertainty. VOiLA learns transition and observation samplers using conditional diffusion models and learns observation-likelihood models for particle-based belief updates. To enable efficient online planning, the diffusion samplers are distilled into compact feedforward generators and integrated with Vectorized Online POMDP Planner (VOPP), an online POMDP planner designed to leverage GPU parallelization. Experimental results indicate the distillation strategy reduces sampling cost by up to nearly three orders of magnitude, making learned generative POMDP models practical for online planning. Evaluation of VOiLA on three benchmark problems indicate that VOiLA achieves equal or better performance than Recurrent Soft Actor Critic while using less than 10% training data, and generalizes much better to unseen environment configurations. Physical robot evaluation indicates VOiLA uses the models learned using only simulated data and generates a policy that successfully accomplish the task in 10 of 10 runs.

Decision making in lithium production is challenging, whether from an investor's perspective or a strategic production standpoint. Determining which mines to open and when to open them involves not only geological and price uncertainties, but also complexities around the choice of extraction method, from direct lithium extraction to hard rock mining. Prior work explored models of this problem and different methods to optimize mining decisions; these models did not account for uncertainty in pricing, uncertainty in demand, or different mining technologies to extract lithium. Incorporating different pricing models and extraction technology into these models enables more robust strategies for determining not only when and where to open a mine, but also which method of production to pursue. We frame the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and solve using belief state planning methods to get optimal decision making. In our study, we show that POMDP solvers outperform human inspired heuristics by dynamically adapting to shifting lithium price regimes (static, linear, exponential, and stochastic) through belief state planning and explicit uncertainty management. By optimally sequencing exploration, production, and technology choice, the framework achieves higher demand fulfillment and more balanced economic environmental outcomes over the projects lifetime in all different pricing and deposit scenarios.

Many games rely on storytelling combined with systems that track levelling, NPC behaviour, and consequence simulation; bridging tightly-authored narrative with deeply-simulated worlds -- most acute in sandbox and open-world settings -- has been prohibitively expensive. LLM-driven worlds open a new path: a single harness can coordinate numerical state, narrative voice, storytelling pacing, and rule logic together. Realising this requires the LLM system to sustain a persistent world (who is where, what has just happened, what is currently true), which today's deployed systems do not: the narrative voice asserts state in free prose without any validated representation, so a fully autonomous game engine remains infeasible. We treat this as an architectural choice, not a limitation of language models, and report work in progress on a framework -- orchestrated reality -- that makes the world a canonical object owned by a singleton orchestration agent analogous to the tabletop-RPG Game Master (GM). We formalise an LLM-driven game world for a human player as a Parameterized-Action POMDP: state is a tree of canonical JSON entities, actions decompose as $a=(k, x_k)$ (a discrete intent kind plus structured JSON parameters), the agent observes only a narrative projection $o=O(s)$ of state, and the transition kernel $F$ is an LLM-driven Plan-Diff-Validate-Apply (PDVA) pipeline that commits schema-validated, content-hashed JSON deltas. We give the formal model, a JSON-state example, a worked single-turn example, and a catalogue of 15 illustrative incidents drawn from a real deployment showing the framework in action. Empirical validation through a planned human player study -- together with multi-NPC concurrent agency and deployment as an RL environment -- is situated as future work.

Real-world robot task planning must operate under both stochastic action execution and partial observability, yet constructing Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) models for real robotics domains remains difficult and labor-intensive. We introduce PO-PDDL, a symbolic formulation of POMDPs that preserves the relational structure and LLM-friendly syntax of the Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL), while explicitly modeling partial observability, stochasticity, and beliefs. Building on this formulation, we propose a demonstration-driven pipeline for learning PO-PDDL models. The proposed method reconstructs latent symbolic state trajectories from real-robot execution videos, identifies partial observability via inconsistencies between inferred states and visual observations, and learns stochastic transition and observation models accordingly. The resulting PO-PDDL domains are reusable across tasks and enable online belief-space planning under both perception and execution uncertainty. Experiments on real-world long-horizon manipulation tasks show that our method consistently outperforms existing PDDL and POMDP model-learning approaches, achieving robust task planning under uncertainty with significantly lower planning cost.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are a general and principled framework for motion planning under uncertainty. Despite tremendous improvement in the scalability of POMDP solvers, long-horizon POMDPs remain difficult to solve. To alleviate the difficulty, this paper proposes a new approximate online POMDP solver, called Reference-Based Online POMDP Planning via Rapid State Space Sampling (ROP-RAS3). ROP-RAS3 uses novel extremely fast sampling-based motion planning techniques to sample the state space and generate a diverse set of macro actions online, which are then used to bias belief-space sampling and infer high-quality policies without requiring exhaustive enumeration of the action space -- a fundamental constraint for modern online POMDP solvers. ROP-RAS3 converges to a near-optimal reference-based solution at a rate that depends on the number of sampled actions, rather than the size of the action space. ROP-RAS3 is evaluated on various long-horizon POMDPs with up to 3000 lookahead steps and 35-dimensional state spaces, where the state, action and observation spaces can be continuous, discrete, or a hybrid of discrete and continuous. Although the reference-based optimal solution may not be the same as the optimal POMDP solution, empirical results indicate that in all of these problems, in terms of success rate, ROP-RAS3 outperforms other state-of-the-art methods by up to multiple folds. We also demonstrate the capability of our approach on a physical robot demonstration. This work extends the theory and empirical results of our ISRR24 paper. Code can be found at \texttt{https://github.com/RDLLab/ROPRAS3}.

We study sequential decision-making in partially observable environments against strategic, adaptive opponents, modeled as partially observable Markov games (POMGs). The central challenge is to learn latent dynamics from partial observations while facing an adversary whose behavior depends on the learner's strategy, making standard regret notions inadequate. We prove that an epoch-based optimistic maximum-likelihood algorithm achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ policy regret for fixed problem parameters, with explicit dependence on the horizon, adversary memory, confidence radius, and the aggregate Eluder dimension of the observable-operator class. The algorithm selects one policy per geometrically growing epoch using confidence sets built cumulatively from past data, which keeps the cost of comparing adversary responses across policies logarithmic in $T$. We also prove a lower bound matching the $\sqrt{T}$ and aggregate-Eluder-dimension dependence, up to problem-dependent and logarithmic factors. Finally, we extend the framework to horizon-adaptive guarantees and adversaries with geometric fading memory.

The family of linear recurrent neural networks has shown strong performance as recurrent memory units in partially observable reinforcement learning. We provide a theoretical justification for their empirical effectiveness by constructing and studying two linear filters: (i) the first exactly reproduces the pre-softmax logits of the belief vector in a hidden Markov model (HMM) under a deterministic transition matrix, thereby serving as a sufficient statistic for optimal policy learning, (ii) the second achieves vanishing state-decoding error under a nearly deterministic transition matrix, thus reducing state ambiguity to near zero. The results extend to action-controlled HMMs, where the corresponding linear filters become time-varying with action-dependent dynamics. We illustrate our main results through numerical experiments and further show that the constructed linear filter serves as a strong feature extractor in a small reinforcement learning game.

Deciding which sensing capabilities to deploy on an agent in uncertain domains is a fundamental engineering challenge, in which one balances task achievability against the high costs of hardware and processing. This problem has previously been formalized as the Optimal Observability Problem (OOP), based on the well-known Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model for decision-making. This work studies (sub-)symbolic techniques to scale solving of decidable fragments of the OOP, namely the Sensor Selection Problem (SSP) and the Positional Observability Problem (POP). Besides improving the original approach based on parameter synthesis, we develop a new solving method that identifies sensible observation functions via decomposition of POMDPs, improving performance by 3 and 5 orders of magnitude for instance size and runtime, respectively.

While humans readily generalize abstract concepts to more complex or larger tasks, building Reinforcement Learning (RL) systems with this ability remains elusive. Here, we present the first theoretical model of how such Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization can be achieved in RL agents. Our approach considers Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) and assumes that an intelligent agent uses an abstraction function to determine which experiences can be treated as equivalent and which must be distinguished. First, we extend the existing state abstraction framework and proof techniques to POMDPs. Then, we define a successor-weighted model reduction, a model reduction variant that enables compression into smaller abstract spaces than prior definitions allow. We derive a bound on the agent's OOD test performance, thereby defining the conditions under which OOD generalization is achievable. This bound decomposes an agent's performance loss into approximation and estimation errors, revealing how reducing an agent's abstract state space size improves test performance and OOD generalization. Our analysis suggests that constraining an agent to operate over a small, finite set of abstract states is necessary for achieving generalization to more complex tasks. Our results motivate further research into learning RL architectures that scale across tasks of varying complexity levels.

Deploying compound LLM agents in adversarial, partially observable sequential environments requires navigating several design dimensions: (1) what the agent sees, (2) how it reasons, and (3) how tasks are decomposed across components. Yet practitioners lack guidance on which design choices improve performance versus merely increase inference costs. We present a controlled study of compound LLM agent design in CybORG CAGE-2, a cyber defense environment modeled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Reward is non-positive, so all configurations operate in a failure-mitigation mode. Our evaluation spans five model families, six models, and twelve configurations (3,475 episodes) with token-level cost accounting. We vary context representation (raw observations vs. a deterministic state-tracking layer with compressed history), deliberation (self-questioning, self-critique, and self-improvement tools, with optional chain-of-thought prompting), and hierarchical decomposition (monolithic ReAct vs. delegation to specialized sub-agents). We find that: (1) Programmatic state abstraction delivers the largest returns per token spent (RPTS), improving mean return by up to 76% over raw observations. (2) Distributing deliberation tools across a hierarchy degrades performance relative to hierarchy alone for all five model families, reaching up to 3.4$\times$ worse mean return while using 1.8-2.7$\times$ more tokens. We call this destructive pattern a deliberation cascade. (3) Hierarchical decomposition without deliberation achieves the best absolute performance for most models, and context engineering is generally more cost-effective than deliberation. These findings suggest a design principle for structured adversarial POMDPs: invest in programmatic infrastructure and clean task decomposition rather than deeper per-agent reasoning, as these strategies can interfere when combined.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are the standard framework for decision-making under uncertainty. While sampling-based methods scale well, they lack formal correctness guarantees, making them unsuitable for safety-critical applications. Conversely, formal synthesis techniques provide correctness-by-construction but often struggle with scalability, as general POMDP synthesis is undecidable. To bridge this gap, we propose a synthesis framework that integrates sampling, automata learning, and model-checking. Inspired by Angluin's $L^*$ algorithm, our approach utilizes sampling as a membership oracle and model-checking as an equivalence oracle. This enables the synthesis of finite-state controllers with formal guarantees, provided the sampling-induced policy is regular. We establish a relative completeness result for this framework. Experimental results from our prototypical implementation demonstrate that this method successfully solves threshold-safety problems that remain challenging for existing formal synthesis tools. We believe our algorithm serves as a valuable component in a portfolio approach to tackling the inherent difficulty of POMDP synthesis problems.

Whether navigating a building, operating a robot, or playing a game, an agent that acts effectively in an environment must first learn an internal model of how that environment works. Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible modeling class for such internal world models, but learning them from observation-action trajectories alone is challenging and typically requires extensive environment interaction. We ask whether language-model priors can reduce costly interaction by leveraging prior knowledge, and introduce \emph{Pinductor} (POMDP-inductor): an LLM proposes candidate POMDP models from a few observation-action trajectories and iteratively refines them to optimize a belief-based likelihood score. Despite using strictly less information, \emph{Pinductor} matches the performance and sample efficiency of LLM-based POMDP learning methods that assume privileged access to the hidden state, while significantly surpassing the sample efficiency of tabular POMDP baselines. Further results show that performance scales with LLM capability and degrades gracefully as semantic information about the environment is withheld. Together, these results position language-model priors as a practical tool for sample-efficient world-model learning under partial observability, and a step toward generalist agents in real-world environments. Code is available at https://github.com/atomresearch/pinductor.

Strategic mine production scheduling under geological uncertainty is conventionally formulated as a stochastic optimization problem in which a fixed extraction sequence and routing decisions are computed ex ante. This plan-driven paradigm treats uncertainty as passive: decisions are hedged across geological scenarios, but planning does not anticipate how future observations will inform future decisions. We propose a different perspective by formulating mine scheduling as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), in which extraction and routing decisions are made sequentially with planning explicitly integrating the expectation of future belief updates. To achieve computational tractability, we introduce a hybrid SA-POMDP architecture that combines simulated annealing-based (SA) value approximation with ensemble-based belief updating via ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA). At each decision epoch, candidate actions are evaluated through their expected long-term value under the current belief, and the belief is updated as mining observations are assimilated. This yields an adaptive policy rather than a fixed plan. We evaluate the framework on a copper-gold open-pit mining complex with multiple processing destinations. Under a statistically consistent prior, the SA-POMDP reduces the expectation-reality gap from 22.3% to 4.6%, improving realized NPV by USD8.4M relative to one-shot stochastic optimization. Under systematic prior misspecification of 10%, the adaptive framework outperforms static planning by up to USD44.6M (36.9%), demonstrating structural robustness beyond scenario hedging. These results show that sequential belief updating transforms geological uncertainty from a passive constraint into an active component of value creation.

Discrepancies between an agent's actual knowledge and what a person thinks the agent knows can hinder interactions. If an agent could detect such discrepancies, it could provide feedback to account for them and improve current and future interactions. Using the I-POMDP as a framework for a second-order Theory of Mind (ToM-2), this work endows an agent with the ability to model the evolution of a person's erroneous beliefs about an agent and the cognitive biases and heuristics (CBH) from which they arise. In doing so, the agent can detect when CBH might be at play during an interaction and adaptively generate feedback that accounts for them. An in-person user study shows how a ToM-2 learner can account for the effects of a teacher's CBH to significantly improve the informativeness of teacher actions, and subjective results suggest people find the ToM-2 learner's feedback more useful.

Synthesising autonomous agents that can navigate uncertain environments while adhering to complex temporal constraints remains a fundamental challenge. While Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) provides a rigorous language for specifying such tasks, the inherent undecidability of qualitatively verifying LTL satisfaction in partially observable Markov decision processes renders quantitative synthesis difficult, especially when designing reliable reward signals for approximate solvers. In this paper, we bridge this gap with a novel, sound reward-shaping mechanism that dynamically generates belief-dependent rewards grounded in certified LTL satisfaction. By integrating this mechanism into an enhanced Monte Carlo Planning framework, we empower agents to navigate the `fog' of partial observability with a search process focused on maximising verifiable success. Our experiments demonstrate that this approach not only thrives in scenarios where existing solvers fail but also maintains effectiveness and scalability across diverse benchmark domains.

We introduce missingness-MDPs (miss-MDPs), a novel subclass of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that incorporates the theory of missing data. A miss-MDP is a POMDP whose observation function is a missingness function, specifying the probability that individual state features are missing (i.e., unobserved) at a time step. The literature distinguishes three canonical missingness types: missing (1) completely at random (MCAR), (2) at random (MAR), and (3) not at random (MNAR). Our planning problem is to compute near-optimal policies for a miss-MDP with an unknown missingness function, given a dataset of action-observation trajectories. Achieving such optimality guarantees for policies requires learning the missingness function from data, which is infeasible for general POMDPs. To overcome this challenge, we exploit the structural properties of different missingness types to derive probably approximately correct (PAC) algorithms for learning the missingness function. These algorithms yield an approximate but fully specified miss-MDP that we solve using off-the-shelf planning methods. We prove that, with high probability, the resulting policies are epsilon-optimal in the true miss-MDP. Empirical results confirm the theory and demonstrate superior performance of our approach over two model-free POMDP methods.

In reinforcement learning (RL), agents acting in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) must rely on memory, typically encoded in a recurrent neural network (RNN), to integrate information from past observations. Long-horizon POMDPs, in which the relevant observation and the optimal action are separated by many time steps (called the horizon), are particularly challenging: training suffers from poor generalization, severe sample inefficiency, and prohibitive exploration costs. Ideally, an agent trained on short horizons would retain optimal behavior at arbitrarily longer ones, but no formal framework currently characterizes when this is achievable. To fill this gap, we formalized temporal horizon generalization, the property that a policy remains optimal for all horizons, derived a necessary and sufficient condition for it, and experimentally evaluated the ability of nonlinear and parallelizable RNN variants to achieve it. This paper presents the resulting theoretical framework, the empirical evaluation, and the dynamical interpretation linking RNN behavior to temporal horizon generalization. Our analyses reveal that multistability is necessary for temporal horizon generalization and, in simple tasks, sufficient; more complex tasks further require transient dynamics. In contrast, modern parallelizable architectures, namely state space models and gated linear RNNs, are monostable by construction and consequently fail to generalize across temporal horizons. We conclude that multistability and transient dynamics are two essential and complementary dynamical regimes for horizon generalization, and that no current parallelizable RNN exhibits both. Designing parallelizable architectures that combine these regimes thus emerges as a key direction for scalable long-horizon RL.

Tool-use language agents are evaluated on benchmarks that assume clean inputs, unambiguous tool registries, and reliable APIs. Real deployments violate all these assumptions: user typos propagate into hallucinated tool names, a misconfigured request timeout can stall an agent indefinitely, and duplicate tool names across servers can freeze an SDK. We study these failures as a sim-to-real gap in the tool-use partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where deployment noise enters through the observation, action space, reward-relevant metadata, or transition dynamics. We introduce RobustBench-TC, a benchmark with 22 perturbation types organized by these four POMDP components, each grounded in a verified GitHub issue or documented tool-calling failure. Across 21 models from 1.5B to 32B parameters (including the closed-source o4-mini), the robustness profile is sharply uneven: observation perturbations reduce accuracy by less than 5%, while reward-relevant and transition perturbations reduce accuracy by roughly 40% and 30%, respectively; scale alone does not close these gaps. We then propose ToolRL-DR, a domain-randomization reinforcement learning (RL) recipe that trains a tool-use agent on perturbation-augmented trajectories spanning the three statically encodable POMDP components. On a 3B backbone, ToolRL-DR-Full retains roughly three-quarters of clean accuracy and reaches an aggregate perturbed accuracy comparable to open-source 14B function-calling baselines while substantially narrowing the gap to o4-mini. It closes approximately 27% of the Transition gap despite never seeing transition perturbations in training, suggesting that RL on adversarial static tool-use inputs induces a more persistent retry policy that transfers to unseen runtime failures. The dataset, code and benchmark leaderboard are publicly available.

Federated learning relies on effective client selection to alleviate the performance degradation caused by data heterogeneity. Most existing methods assume full visibility of all clients at each communication round. However, in large-scale or edge-based deployments, the server can only access a subset of clients due to communication, mobility, or availability constraints, resulting in partial visibility where only a subset of clients is observable for aggregation in each communication round. In this paper, we formulate federated client selection under partial visibility as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) and propose a Spatial-Temporal attention-based reinforcement learning framework. By integrating historical global models and client identity embeddings, the proposed method captures both the temporal contexts of training and the persistent characteristics of clients. Experimental results across multiple datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines in heterogeneous and partially visible settings, validating its effectiveness in addressing the challenges of incomplete observations in practical federated learning systems.

Task completion in digital and physical environments increasingly involves complex temporal interaction, where actions and observations unfold over different time scales rather than align with fixed observation--action steps. To model such interactions, we propose \emph{Engagement Process} (EP), an interaction formalism that inherits the decision-theoretic structure of POMDPs while making time explicit in the action--observation interface. EP represents actions and observations as decoupled event streams along time, rather than updates paired at fixed decision steps. This interface captures single-agent timing issues such as deliberation latency, delayed feedback, and persistent actions, while supporting richer agent-side organization, multi-rate coordination, and compositional interaction among subsystems. Across toy, LLM-agent, and learning experiments, EP exposes temporal behaviors hidden by step-based interfaces and enables policies to adapt under explicit time costs.

This paper presents a finite-time analysis for Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), with probabilistic concentration bounds in both discrete and continuous observation spaces. While MCTS-style solvers such as POMCP achieve empirical success in many applications, rigorous finite-time guarantees remain an open problem due to the nonstationarity and the interdependencies induced by heuristic action selection (e.g., UCB). In the discrete setting, we address these challenges by extending the polynomial exploration bonus to UCB in POMDP setting, yielding polynomial concentration bounds for the empirical value estimation at the root node. For continuous observation spaces, we introduce an abstract partitioning framework and propose a finite-time bound on partitioning loss. Under mild conditions, we prove highprobability bound on value estimates in POMDPs with continuous observation space. Specifically, we propose Voro-POMCPOW, a variant of POMCPOW with f inite-time guarantees that adaptively partitions the continuous observation space using Voronoi cells. This approach maintains a finite branching factor while preserving the original observation generator. Empirical validation demonstrates that the proposed Voro-POMCPOW shows competitive performance while providing theoretical guarantees. Although our analysis focuses on continuous POMDPs, the techniques developed herein are also applicable to continuous MDPs, closing another gap on the MDP side.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are systems in which one agent interacts with a stochastic environment, and receives only partial information about the current state. In a multi-environment POMDP (MEPOMDP), the initial state is unknown, and assumed to be adversarially chosen. In this work we focus on computing the optimal value and policy in MEPOMDPs with finite-horizon objectives. That problem is known to be PSPACE-complete in POMDPs. Our main results are as follows: (1) we establish that it is also PSPACE-complete in the more general setting of MEPOMDPs; (2) we present a practical algorithm and evaluate it on classical benchmarks, significantly outperforming the only previously known algorithm.

Real-world clinical diagnosis is a complex process in which the doctor is required to obtain information from both interaction with the patient and conducting medical exams. Additionally, the doctor needs to adapt to different patient personas, as well as noisy and incomplete information that can happen at any time during the process. However, existing benchmarks for medical LLMs and methods for automatic diagnosis largely simplify this process by reducing it to single-turn question answering, noise-free conversations, or sequential exam making, etc., ignoring the interactive and uncertain nature of clinical diagnosis. In this paper, we aim to address this gap by formalizing clinical diagnosis as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) with three action types: questioning the patient, ordering medical exams as tool calls, and issuing a diagnosis. We also introduce a systematic noise model comprising seven patient noise types and three exam noise types. Using our proposed environment, we train an effective diagnosis agent, \textbf{MedExAgent}, through a two-stage pipeline that first performs supervised finetuning on synthetic conversations structured after the Calgary-Cambridge model for clinical interviews, and then applies DAPO to optimize a composite reward capturing diagnostic accuracy, tool call quality, and exam cost including financial cost and patient discomfort. Through extensive experiments and ablation studies, we demonstrate that MedExAgent achieves diagnostic performance comparable to larger models while maintaining cost-efficient examination strategies.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents are deployed in complex environments -- such as massive codebases, enterprise databases, and conversational histories -- where the relevant state far exceeds their context windows. To navigate these spaces, an agent must iteratively explore the environment to find relevant information. However, without explicit infrastructure, an agent's working memory can degrade into lossy representations of the search state, resulting in redundant work (e.g. repetitive looping) and premature stopping. In this work, we formalize this challenge as the Context Gathering Decision Process (CGDP), a specialized Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, where an agent's objective is to adaptively refine its belief state to isolate the necessary information for a task. We model an LLM's behavior as approximate Thompson Sampling within this CGDP, and introduce a predicate-based method that decomposes an LLM's implicit search into explicit and modular operations. We then derive two plug-and-play interventions for iterative LLM agents: a persistent, predicate-based belief state that bounds context while preserving multi-hop reasoning, and a programmatic exhaustion gate that halts unproductive search without premature stopping. Across four methods and three question-answering domains, we empirically validate that replacing an LLM's implicit state with our CGDP-motivated belief state improves multi-hop reasoning by up to $11.4\%$; while the modular programmatic exhaustion detection saves up to $39\%$ of tokens without any degradation in agent performance. Ultimately, we argue that framing the LLM agent loop as a CGDP can guide the design of modular, non-interfering improvements to agentic search harnesses.

We study agency under partial observability in deterministic physical or simulated worlds, where apparent randomness arises from uncertainty over initial conditions, fixed law bits, and unrolled exogenous noise. We model sensing and actuation as bridge interfaces split between agent-controlled parameters and environment-controlled channel state, inducing a deterministic POMDP through a prior over latent microstates and many-to-one observation coarsening. Within this framework, we prove a separation between prediction, compression, and empowerment. Perfect prediction can be achieved either by identifying the hidden quotient relevant to the target family or by overwrite control that makes the future target action-determined; high empowerment alone is insufficient. Under refinable interfaces and sufficient memory, action-conditioned observation-compression progress reduces posterior uncertainty about the latent quotient, and when refinement requires steering world-side channel conditions, this creates target-conditioned interface empowerment. A bit-string specialization with a conserved information budget makes the resulting tradeoff explicit: prediction by identification requires internal capacity at least the relevant latent entropy, whereas overwrite control requires terminal action capacity over the controlled quotient. For modern AI agents, the results suggest a design principle rather than a theorem of inevitability: objectives should distinguish hidden-state identification, interface refinement, task-relevant controllability, and mere overwrite or distractor control. Human--AI alignment is partly an interface-design problem, where the relevant bridge is between human intent, agent internal state, external tools, and world-side channel conditions. This is a working draft: feedback and criticism is most welcome.

We formally establish the equivalence between Observation Delay (OD) and Action Delay (AD) in cooperative partially observable multi-agent systems using observation-action histories. We show that both systems generate identical admissible joint-policy sets, and their induced state-action-observation trajectories are identical in distribution, leading to identical optimal solutions in Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs). This formally generalizes existing infinite-horizon single-agent results to any-horizon partially observable cooperative multi-agent problems with decentralized policy execution, and allows any mixed-delay configuration to be reduced to a pure OD system. We further prove that in Transition-Independent MDPs (TI-MDPs), the observation-action history reduces to a tractable minimal local augmented state. However, we show through numerical experiments that although the optimal solution spaces are structurally isomorphic, the practical learning dynamics are fundamentally different. First, using the minimal local augmented state, the equivalence no longer holds when transitions are not independent. Second, operational constraints and causal credit-assignment errors in Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms induce different learning behaviors across regimes. Finally, leveraging this structural equivalence to bypass these learning challenges, we demonstrate successful multi-agent zero-shot policy transfer from OD to AD, paving the way for unified, efficient solution methods in complex delayed systems.

We present two new classes of causal models of decision-making agents. Our approach is motivated by the needs of modeling the economics of computing systems. These systems are composed of subsystems and can exhibit endogenous limits on cognitive resources and value discounting. Structural Causal Decision Models (SCDMs) expand on Structural Causal Influence Models. Like SCIMs, they explicitly represent the causal relationships between model variables and the payoffs of agent decisions. Additionally, agent decisions can be constrained by their causal antecedents, and SCDMs can have open root variables for which no probability distribution or structural equation is given. We show that SCDMs have a well-defined and computationally useful property of composability. Building on SCDMs, we then define a Structural Causal Decision Process (SCDP) as a recurring SCDM with a discount variable. SCDPs benefit from the useful composition properties of SCDMs. Moreover, SCDPs are strictly more expressive than POMDPs because they do not assume rational belief formation. Indeed, an SCDP can endogenously model the memory-formation process, and is thus useful for modeling resource rational agents in dynamic settings. SCDPs are also capable of modeling variable discounting, a tool used widely in social scientific modeling. We pose that SCDPs are a useful framework for policy simulation for the digital economy, mechanism design for information systems, and digital twin modeling of cyberinfrastructure.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms exhibit high sample complexity, particularly when applied to Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs). As a response, projects such as SampleFactory, EnvPool, Brax, and IsaacLab migrate parallel execution of classic environments such as MuJoCo and Atari into C++ thread pools or the GPU to decrease the computational cost of environment steps. We are interested in optimizing the decision-level of human-AI joint operations, so we introduce a compute-efficient Dec-POMDP engine natively architected in C++ called Hide-And-Seek-Engine. By employing Data-Oriented Design (DOD) principles, explicit 64-byte cache-line alignment to remove false sharing, and a zero-copy PyTorch memory bridge using pinned memory and Direct Memory Access (DMA), our engine sustains throughput of up to 33,000,000 steps per second (SPS) in a single-agent, 1024-environment, decentralized observations on an AMD Ryzen 9950X (16 cores). Ten agents reduces FPS to 7M SPS with generating random actions contributing 1/3rd the total runtime for reference. The engine achieves a throughput increase of approximately 3,500$\times$ over the baseline single threaded vectorized NumPy implementation and successfully trains cooperative multi-agent policies via PPO, DQN, and SAC in minutes, validating both its performance and generality.

Contact variability, sensing uncertainty, and external disturbances make grasp execution stochastic. Expected-quality objectives ignore tail outcomes and often select grasps that fail under adverse contact realizations. Risk-sensitive POMDPs address this failure mode, but many use particle-filter beliefs that scale poorly, obstruct gradient-based optimization, and estimate Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) with high-variance approximations. We instead formulate grasp acquisition as variational inference over latent contact parameters and object pose, representing the belief with a differentiable Gaussian mixture. We use Gumbel-Softmax component selection and location-scale reparameterization to express samples as smooth functions of the belief parameters, enabling pathwise gradients through a differentiable CVaR surrogate for direct optimization of tail robustness. In simulation, our variational neural belief improves robust grasp success under contact-parameter uncertainty and exogenous force perturbations while reducing planning time by roughly an order of magnitude relative to particle-filter model-predictive control. On a serial-chain robot arm with a multifingered hand, we validate grasp-and-lift success under object-pose uncertainty against a Gaussian baseline. Both methods succeed on the tested perturbations, but our controller terminates in fewer steps and less wall-clock time while achieving a higher tactile grasp-quality proxy. Our learned belief also calibrates risk more accurately, keeping mean absolute calibration error below 0.14 across tested simulation regimes, compared with 0.58 for a Cross-Entropy Method planner.

Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is a foundational state estimation problem in robotics in which a robot accurately constructs a map of its environment while also localizing itself within this construction. We study the active SLAM problem through the lens of optimal stochastic control, thereby recasting it as a decision-making problem under partial information. After reviewing several commonly studied models, we present a general stochastic control formulation of active SLAM together with a rigorous treatment of motion, sensing, and map representation. We introduce a new exploration stage cost that encodes the geometry of the state when evaluating information-gathering actions. This formulation, constructed as a nonstandard partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), is then analyzed to derive rigorously justified approximate solutions that are near-optimal. To enable this analysis, the associated regularity conditions are studied under general assumptions that apply to a wide range of robotics applications. For a particular case, we conduct an extensive numerical study in which standard learning algorithms are used to learn near-optimal policies.

Policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are often designed using a nominal system model. In practice, this model can deviate from the true system during deployment due to factors such as calibration drift or sensor degradation, leading to unexpected performance degradation. This work studies policy robustness against deviations in the POMDP observation model. We introduce the Policy Observation Robustness Problem: to determine the maximum tolerable deviation in a POMDP's observation model that guarantees the policy's value remains above a specified threshold. We analyze two variants: the sticky variant, where deviations are dependent on state and actions, and the non-sticky variant, where they can be history-dependent. We show that the Policy Observation Robustness Problem can be formulated as a bi-level optimization problem in which the inner optimization is monotonic in the size of the observation deviation. This enables efficient solutions using root-finding algorithms in the outer optimization. For the non-sticky variant, we show that when policies are represented with finite-state controllers (FSCs) it is sufficient to consider observations which depend on nodes in the FSC rather than full histories. We present Robust Interval Search, an algorithm with soundness and convergence guarantees, for both the sticky and non-sticky variants. We show this algorithm has polynomial time complexity in the non-sticky variant and at most exponential time complexity in the sticky variant. We provide experimental results validating and demonstrating the scalability of implementations of Robust Interval Search to POMDP problems with tens of thousands of states. We also provide case studies from robotics and operations research which demonstrate the practical utility of the problem and algorithms.

Autonomous systems that rely on learned perception can make unsafe decisions when sensor readings are misclassified. We study shielding for this setting: given a proposed action, a shield blocks actions that could violate safety. We consider the common case where system dynamics are known but perception uncertainty must be estimated from finite labeled data. From these data we build confidence intervals for the probabilities of perception outcomes and use them to model the system as a finite Interval Partially Observable Markov Decision Process with discrete states and actions. We then propose an algorithm to compute a conservative set of beliefs over the underlying state that is consistent with the observations seen so far. This enables us to construct a runtime shield that comes with a finite-horizon guarantee: with high probability over the training data, if the true perception uncertainty rates lie within the learned intervals, then every action admitted by the shield satisfies a stated lower bound on safety. Experiments on four case studies show that our shielding approach (and variants derived from it) improves the safety of the system over state-of-the-art baselines.

Physical awareness, especially in a large and dynamic environment, is shaped by sensing decisions that determine observability across space, time, and scale, while observations impact the quality of sensing decisions. This loopy information structure makes physical awareness a fundamentally challenging decision problem with partial observations. While in the past decade we have witnessed the unprecedented success of reinforcement learning (RL) in problems with full observability, decision problems with partial observation, such as POMDPs, remain largely open: real-world explorations are excessively costly, while sim-to-real pipeline suffer from unobserved viewpoints. We introduce AW4RE (Active World-model with 4D-informed Retrieval for Exploration), an awareness-centric generative world model that provides a sensor-native surrogate environment for exploring sensing queries. Conditioned on a queried sensing action, AW4RE estimates the action-conditioned observation process. This is done by combining 4D-informed evidence retrieval, action-conditioned geometric support with temporal coherence, and conditional generative completion. Experiments demonstrate that AW4RE produces more grounded and consistent predictions than geometry-aware generative baselines under extreme viewpoint shifts, temporal gaps, and sparse geometric support.