Bayesian

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods improve model performance under distribution shift but lack formal guarantees connecting shift magnitude to prediction reliability. We develop a PAC-Bayesian framework yielding generalization bounds explicitly parameterized by the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between source and target distributions. Our principal contribution is interpreting MMD-balls around the source distribution as credal sets in Walley's imprecise probability theory, yielding natural epistemic uncertainty quantification. We establish: (i) a PAC-Bayesian bound with an MMD-dependent shift penalty under an RKHS-Lipschitz loss assumption; (ii) a finite-sample version via MMD concentration; (iii) a uniform worst-case risk bound over all distributions in the credal set, with a lower-upper risk decomposition; and (iv) geodesic preservation bounds explaining why kernel-guided adaptation protects local feature geometry. The credal set interpretation separates epistemic from aleatoric uncertainty and provides a principled decision criterion for when adaptation is warranted.

The practical adoption of sampling-based inference (SAI) in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) remains limited, partly due to persistent misconceptions about the feasibility and efficiency of sampling. This position paper argues that SAI has achieved computational parity with optimization-based methods and is at the verge of superseding such methods for effective and efficient inference in BNNs. This development should be in the interest of the whole community, promoting BNNs as a principled paradigm with its long-standing yet unfulfilled promise of providing principled uncertainty quantification for neural networks. SAI can even do more -- yielding superior prediction performance through model averaging, serving as the foundation for a plethora of possible downstream tasks, and providing crucial insights into the landscape of BNNs. In order to make such a change happen and unfold the potential of sampling, overcoming current misconceptions is a necessary first step. The next step is to realign research efforts toward addressing remaining challenges in SAI. In particular, the community must focus on two core problems: sufficient exploration of the posterior landscape and high-fidelity distillation of posterior samples for efficient downstream inference. By addressing conceptual and practical obstacles, we can unlock the full potential of SAI and establish it as a central tool in Bayesian deep learning.

Suppose a planner has a pre-trained simulator of a sequential decision problem and the option to run real experiments in the field. The simulator is cheap to query but inherits confounding and drift from its calibration data. Experimentation is unbiased but consumes one real unit per trial. We study when, and how, the planner should supplement the simulator with experiments. We give three results. First, an extended simulation lemma decomposes the simulator's value error into a calibration--deployment shift that randomization can identify and a parametric residual that no further interaction can reduce. Second, the value gap between the simulator-optimal policy and the optimum splits into a local component, on states the deployed policy already visits, and a reachability component, on states it does not. The reachability component stays bounded away from zero at any horizon under purely passive learning. Third, we propose Fisher-SEP, a simulation-aided experimental policy (SEP) that minimizes the posterior predictive variance of a target policy's value, with reward-only and transition-only specializations. Two case studies illustrate the regimes. In a vending-machine supply chain, front-loaded experimentation overtakes posterior updating once the horizon is long enough to amortize the pilot. In an HIV mobile-testing example with a corridor that separates a well-surveilled region from a poorly-surveilled one, only designed exploration reaches the poorly-surveilled region.

In this work, we extend the Equilibrium Propagation framework to skew-gradient systems and show an equivalence between deep Energy-Based Models and Hamiltonian neural networks. We focus on networks of diffusively coupled Fitzhugh-Nagumo neurons as a prototypical example. We show that since stationary solutions of the Fitzhugh-Nagumo model are described by self-adjoint operators, the methods of equilibrium propagation for performing credit assignment can be applied. Furthermore, for Fitzhugh-Nagumo networks with the topology of a deep residual network, we show that the steady state solutions admit a (spatial) Hamiltonian, and thus the methods of Hamiltonian Echo Backpropagation can be applied. We end by deriving an explicit layer-wise Hamiltonian recurrence relation governing inference for stationary solutions of both deep Fitzhugh-Nagumo networks and deep Energy-Based Models.

Compositional score-based approaches to simulation-based inference (SBI) approximate the posterior over a shared parameter given $n$ independent observations by aggregating individually learned posterior scores: currently, there are two main propositions of such methods (Geffner et al. (2023), Linhart et al. (2026)). As the resulting composite score does not correspond to the score of any distribution along the forward diffusion path of the true multi-observation posterior, sampling from it via a reverse SDE leads to an irreducible bias. Annealed Langevin dynamics provides a principled alternative: it treats the composite score as the genuine score of a sequence of tractable bridging densities and samples from them in succession. When properly tuned, it could lead to a controllable bias. However, its hyperparameters, namely step sizes, the number of steps per level, and the number of annealing levels, have so far been chosen empirically. We derive Wasserstein bounds for annealed Langevin with approximate scores and translate them into explicit decision rules for these hyperparameters that guarantee a prescribed sampling accuracy, while highlighting different theoretical aspects of each composite score formulation. In the Gaussian setting, we obtain closed-form expressions for all relevant quantities and prove that the bridging densities of Linhart et al. (2026) consistently admit larger step sizes and require fewer total Langevin steps than those of Geffner et al. (2023). Furthermore, we show empirically that the tuning obtained in the Gaussian setting generalizes to more complex problems, thus providing a well-understood and theoretically grounded starting point for practitioners using compositional score-based approaches.

We study transformers' generalization behavior on boolean domains from the perspective of the Fourier spectra of their target functions. In contrast to prior work (Edelman et al., 2022; Trauger & Tosh, 2024), which derived generalization bounds from Rademacher complexity, we investigate the feasibility of obtaining generalization bounds via PAC-Bayes theory. We show that sparse spectra concentrated on low-degree components enable low-sharpness constructions with good generalization properties. Our idea is to show the existence of flat minima implementing any boolean function of sparsity no greater than the context length, and then apply a PAC-Bayes bound to an idealized low-sharpness learner, resulting in a non-vacuous generalization bound. We use this to give a formal account of why chain-of-thought improves generalization for high-degree target functions, and show that the complexity parameters in our bound can be efficiently estimated via property testing. We evaluate predictions empirically and conduct a mechanistic interpretability study to support the realism of our theoretical construction in real transformers.

We study a stochastic bandit algorithm motivated by retry-aware objectives that value the best outcome among multiple attempts, such as pass@$k$ and max@$k$. Given a posterior over arm values, ReMax chooses a sampling distribution that maximizes the posterior expected maximum reward over $M$ virtual draws. Although this objective was introduced in reinforcement learning as an exploration mechanism under uncertainty, its regret properties in bandit problems have remained unclear. For Gaussian rewards and the first nontrivial case $M=2$, we characterize the optimal ReMax distribution through an expected-improvement balance condition and prove the first sublinear regret bound for ReMax. Our analysis separates the usual saturation behavior of suboptimal arms from a ReMax-specific underestimation effect, in which the optimal arm may be sampled too rarely after an unfavorable estimate. This explains why ReMax can be more exploitative than Thompson sampling (TS) and why its regret analysis is technically delicate. Experiments support this picture: ReMax often outperforms KL-UCB and Thompson sampling under mild underestimation, while posterior-variance scaling empirically mitigates severe underestimation.

Large language models can predict real-valued quantities from heterogeneous inputs such as text, code, and molecular strings, but most training objectives score each decoded floating-point number independently, improving point estimates without ensuring calibrated predictive distributions. This limits applications requiring candidate ranking or uncertainty estimation. We introduce Distribution-Aware Reward, an on-policy reinforcement learning objective whose main contribution is to train language models to produce better predictive distributions for regression tasks, rather than only optimizing individual decoded outputs against scalar targets. Our method treats multiple decoded samples as an empirical predictive distribution, evaluates it with the Continuous Ranked Probability Score, and assigns leave-one-out credit based on each rollout's marginal contribution to distribution quality, rewarding predictions that are both accurate and appropriately dispersed. We evaluate our method on a controlled Gaussian-mixture task, code performance prediction, and molecular property prediction from SMILES strings. Across tasks, our method improves over supervised fine-tuning and pointwise reinforcement learning baselines, with strong rank-correlation gains, including a 6-point Spearman improvement on KBSS. On MoleculeNet, it uses only SMILES strings yet remains competitive with strong graph-based and 3D molecular models. Further analyses show that our method mitigates rollout diversity collapse and improves uncertainty diagnostics, suggesting that directly optimizing predictive distributions makes language model regression more robust and better calibrated.

Learning from implicit feedback in recommender systems is fundamentally challenged by pervasive label noise. While conventional denoising approaches often discard noisy instances to ensure robustness, this strategy inevitably suffers from low data utilization. Alternative methods that employ a Bayes-label transition matrix (BLTM) can leverage all available data, but their estimates tend to be biased in practical recommendation scenarios. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a Robust GMM-weighted Bayes-label Transition Matrix framework (RGBT). Our solution utilizes a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to derive instance-specific reliability scores, which systematically calibrate the BLTM estimation to mitigate bias. Theoretical analysis confirms that our approach, by leveraging the BLTM framework with GMM calibration, simultaneously ensures full sample utilization, delivers consistent estimation, and critically, achieves a significant reduction in estimation variance. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world and synthetically flipped datasets demonstrate that RGBT not only utilizes noisy samples more effectively than mainstream reliable sample-based denoising methods, but also achieves significantly superior calibration capability of the transition matrix compared to state-of-the-art transition matrix-based denoising approaches.

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing out the latent variables. For LGMs with a non-Gaussian likelihood, exact marginalization is not possible and a popular approach is to do approximate marginalization with an integrated Laplace approximation (ILA). Using ILA produces an approximate posterior which, in some settings, can differ significantly from the correct posterior, which impacts downstream applications. We propose an importance sampling scheme to correct the error introduced by ILA. By increasing the number of samples in importance sampling, the posterior with ILA converges to the correct posterior. This idea is realized with various techniques, including pseudo-marginalization, quasi-Monte Carlo and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo. We implement our methods in an automatic differentiation framework to support gradient-based algorithms when doing inference on the hyperparameters. For the latter, we specifically consider the use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the benefits of reduced error in various applied models.

Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions are commonly used in Bayesian optimization (BO) to guide the selection of evaluation points for expensive objective functions. The choice of kernel and hyperparameters has a strong influence on the exploration--exploitation trade-off. For minimization, sampling criteria such as expected improvement (EI) depend on both the probability mass below the current best value and the shape of the predictive distribution in this region. This article studies goal-oriented calibration of GP predictive distributions below a low threshold $t$ in the noiseless setting, for standard GP models with hyperparameters selected by maximum likelihood. We consider two complementary forms of calibration below $t$ for inputs distributed according to a reference measure $μ$: occurrence calibration over the design space and thresholded $μ$-calibration on sublevel sets of the form $\{x\in\mathbb{X}, f(x)\le t\}$. We propose tcGP, a post-hoc method that combines these two forms of calibration for GP predictive distributions below $t$. With fixed GP hyperparameters, the exact EI sampling criterion based on tcGP generates a sequence of evaluation points that is dense in the design space. Experiments on standard benchmarks show improved lower-tail calibration and BO performance relative to standard GP models and globally calibrated GP models.

Backpropagation with gradient descent is a common optimization strategy employed by most neural network architectures in machine learning. However, finding optimal hyperparameters to guide training has proven challenging. While it is widely acknowledged that selecting appropriate parameters is crucial for avoiding overfitting and achieving unbiased outcomes, this choice remains largely based on empirical experiments and experience. This paper presents a new probabilistic framework for the learning rate, a key parameter in stochastic gradient descent. The framework develops classic Bayesian statistics into a double-Bayesian decision mechanism involving two antagonistic Bayesian processes. A theoretically optimal learning rate can be derived from these two processes and used for stochastic gradient descent. Experiments across various classification, segmentation, and detection tasks corroborate the practical significance of the theoretically derived learning rate. The paper also discusses the ramifications of the proposed double-Bayesian framework for network training and model performance.

Medical image segmentation faces a fundamental challenge in continual learning: data arrives sequentially from heterogeneous sources, yet effective continual learning requires discovering which tasks share sufficient structure to benefit from joint learning. Existing methods either apply uniform constraints across all tasks, causing catastrophic forgetting when tasks conflict, or require predefined task groupings that cannot anticipate future task diversity. We introduce MedCRP-CL, a framework that performs online task structure discovery and structure-aware continual learning. Leveraging the Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP), our method dynamically infers task groupings from clinical text prompts as tasks arrive, without requiring predefined cluster counts or access to future tasks. We term these discovered groupings semantic modalities, as they capture finer-grained structure than physical imaging modalities by integrating anatomical region and pathological context. Guided by this discovered structure, we maintain semantic modality-specific LoRA adapters regularized by intra-modality EWC, ensuring parameter isolation across dissimilar task groups while facilitating knowledge transfer within similar ones. The framework is also replay-free, storing only aggregate statistics rather than raw patient data. Experiments on 16 medical segmentation tasks across four imaging modalities demonstrate that MedCRP-CL achieves 73.3% Dice score with only 4.1% forgetting, outperforming the best baseline by 8.0% while requiring 6$\times$ fewer parameters. Code is available at https://github.com/zygao930/MedCRP-CL.

In this paper, we study a consensus-based optimization method for nonconvex bi-level optimization, where the objective is to minimize an upper-level function over the set of global minimizers of a lower-level problem. The proposed approach is derivative-free, and constructs its consensus point via smooth quantile selection combined with a Gibbs-type Laplace approximation. We establish convergence guarantees for both the associated \textit{mean-field} dynamics and its \textit{finite-particle} approximation. In particular, under suitable assumptions on smooth quantile localization, error bounds, and stability, we show that the mean-field law reaches any arbitrary prescribed Wasserstein neighborhood of the target bi-level solution with an explicit exponential rate up to the hitting time. Numerical experiments on a two-dimensional constrained problem and neural network training further support the theoretical results.

Deep generative models have emerged as state-of-the-art for solving inverse problems, but applying them to inverse problems for PDEs, like electrical impedance tomography (EIT) remains challenging. Because physical domains are naturally discretized as unstructured meshes rather than regular grids, standard convolutional architectures are often inadequate. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that extends diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) to graph-structured data. We develop an unconditional score-based diffusion model directly on a 2D triangular mesh to learn an accurate prior over the physical solution space. Furthermore, we introduce a regularized variant, RDPS, which incorporates explicit regularization terms, such as total variation and generalized Tikhonov, to complement the implicit diffusion prior and mitigate severe ill-posedness. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real 2D EIT datasets demonstrate that RDPS produces stable, physically plausible reconstructions. Our approach generalizes well to out-of-distribution inclusion geometries, is highly robust to measurement noise, and outperforms current state-of-the-art solvers (e.g., GPnP-BM3D, DP-SGS) in reconstruction accuracy and artifact reduction.

Inferring unknown initial states in shock-dominated compressible flows from sparse and noisy measurements is a challenging ill-posed inverse problem due to nonlinear wave interactions and limited sensing. In this work, we develop a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for efficient Bayesian initial-state inversion with uncertainty quantification. The framework combines a convolutional autoencoder with a learned latent-space forward operator. The autoencoder compresses high-dimensional flow fields into a compact nonlinear latent representation, while the forward operator predicts final-time latent states from encoded initial conditions. This AE-ROM surrogate enables rapid forward evaluations and is embedded within a No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) for posterior exploration. The framework is demonstrated using 500 high-fidelity Sod shock tube simulations generated through Latin hypercube sampling and solved using a fifth-order WENO scheme. The inverse problem seeks to recover unknown left and right density and pressure states from sparse noisy observations of final-time density and pressure fields. Results show that the AE-ROM accurately reconstructs key shock-tube structures, including the rarefaction wave, contact discontinuity, and shock front. A latent dimension of 32 provides an effective balance between reconstruction accuracy and reduced-space compactness, while 250 training simulations are sufficient for accurate reconstruction. Increasing observation density significantly contracts posterior uncertainty, reducing the mean posterior standard deviation by approximately 78% for density and 76% for pressure. Overall, the proposed framework provides a computationally efficient and uncertainty-aware approach for inverse analysis of shock-dominated flows, with potential extensions to multidimensional compressible-flow and digital-twin applications.

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification of either component can severely degrade accuracy and calibration. Motivated by the rapid progress of predictive models such as large language models, the martingale posterior, also known as predictive Bayes, replaces the prior--likelihood pair with a predictive distribution and recovers parameter uncertainty by repeatedly drawing predictive samples and refitting the model. A direct federated implementation, however, would require clients to share the local data sets. This letter proposes {federated martingale posterior} (FMP) sampling, a one-shot embarrassingly parallel protocol in which each client uploads a small set of trainable data embeddings and the server runs the predictive sampler centrally. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 show that FMP closely matches the centralized counterpart and significantly improves calibration over consensus-style baselines.

Coding and computation remain major bottlenecks in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) workflows, especially as modern sampling algorithms have become increasingly complex and existing probabilistic programming systems remain limited in model support, extensibility, and composability. We introduce \textbf{AI4BayesCode}, an extensible LLM-driven system that translates natural-language Bayesian model descriptions into runnable, validated MCMC samplers. To improve reliability, AI4BayesCode adopts a modular design that decomposes models into modular sampling blocks and maps each block to a built-in sampling component, reducing the need to implement complex sampling algorithms from scratch. Reliability is further improved through pre-generation validation of model specifications and post-generation validation of generated sampler code. AI4BayesCode also introduces a novel recursively stateful coding paradigm for MCMC, allowing modular sampling components, potentially developed by different contributors, to be composed coherently within larger MCMC procedures. We develop a benchmark suite to evaluate AI4BayesCode for sampler-generation. Experiments show that AI4BayesCode can implement a wide range of Bayesian models from natural-language descriptions alone. As an open-ended system, its capability can continue to expand with improvements in the underlying AI agent and the addition of new built-in blocks.

Bayesian latent space models offer a principled approach to network representation, but rely on correct specification of both geometry and link function. Real-world networks often violate these assumptions, exhibiting geometric mismatch and structural anomalies that break standard metric properties. We show that such misspecification pushes the data-generating distribution outside the model class, causing Bayesian inference to become overconfident and poorly calibrated. To address this, we propose a generalized posterior framework for random geometric graphs. We introduce Link-Sequential R-SafeBayes, a method that exploits dyadic conditional independence to estimate prequential risk and adaptively tune posterior regularization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate improved calibration, better link prediction performance, and a reliable criterion for selecting latent geometries across Euclidean, spherical, and hyperbolic spaces.

We propose MATE, a simple yet effective memory architecture for solving Contextual Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs), a family of MDPs parameterized by an unobserved context. In CMDPs, an optimal agent can adapt online by maintaining the posterior belief over contexts. MATE replaces this intractable posterior with a sum-aggregated memory, leveraging the posterior's permutation invariance to retain provably sufficient expressiveness. Compared to prior memory architectures, MATE avoids the growing per-step rollout cost of Transformers and the gradient issues commonly associated with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Extensive evaluations across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that MATE provides clear computational advantages while achieving performance comparable to standard sequence-model baselines.

A unified framework for learning under covariate shift is presented, in which a constrained density-ratio network approximates the Radon-Nikodym derivative $r^\star = dP/dQ$ and feeds an anytime PAC-Bayes generalization certificate. A change-of-measure identity decomposes the gap between target risk and importance-weighted source risk into a ratio-bias term governed by $\|r_θ- r^\star\|_{L^2(Q)}$ and a generalization-gap term governed by the variability of the weighted loss. Normalization and moment-matching identities are enforced as hard integral constraints through an augmented-Lagrangian scheme, with a second-moment penalty controlling the effective sample size. PAC-Bayes is instantiated on the weighted risk in a fixed-time regime that yields Bernoulli-KL bounds, identifies the network-weighted Gibbs posterior as the unique KL-regularized minimizer, and quantifies stability under $L^2(Q)$ perturbations of the learned ratio, and is then strengthened by geometric peeling to an anytime certificate uniform in $t \geq t_{\min}$. A pre-registered two-campaign protocol combining a patch test against analytic ground truth with a real-data deployment validates the framework: the network produces calibrated ratios, reduces target $0/1$ loss against unweighted ERM and classical direct ratio-estimation baselines, and attains the anytime certificate. A single fixed-time coverage failure is recorded, with per-split coverage aligning one-to-one with the magnitude of the label shift, confirming that the covariate-only assumption is operationally tight rather than a defect of the certificate.

Dempster's rule is a fundamental tool for combining belief functions from distinct and reliable sources. However, its intersection-based semantics imposes strong structural restrictions, which limits its flexibility in handling complex source states and diverse information fusion scenarios. To overcome this limitation, we propose a reversible transformation, derived from the isopignistic principle, between belief functions and a possibilistic structure defined on the power set. In this transformation, the relationships among subsets are explicitly characterized by a belief evolution network, which provides a more flexible representation of evidential information beyond the conventional mass function structure. On this basis, we further introduce the triangular norm family to develop a general and adaptive evidential information fusion framework. Unlike fusion methods rooted in Dempster semantics, the proposed framework supports more flexible combination behaviors and exhibits advantages in non-distinct source fusion, conflict management, parametric combination design, and heterogeneous information fusion.

A "path-based sensor" produces a single observation along a continuous path. For example, a boolean path-based sensor returns a single "1" if an event of interest is detected at any point along the path and a "0" otherwise. Notably, a "1" provides no direct information about where along the path the event(s) may have occurred. Previous work has demonstrated that observations from multiple path-based sensors can be fused to create a Bayesian belief map over the spatial locations of the underlying event or phenomenon. Moreover, path planning can employ Shannon information theory to accelerate the rate of convergence of the belief map. In this paper, we present a new method to update the belief map based on a path-based sensor observation, and then plan paths to increase information gain. In contrast to prior work that approximates the posterior by averaging over the alternative event histories, we introduce a Bayesian Network (BN) formulation that models the probabilistic relationships between the latent variables and path-based sensor measurements, enabling a more principled Bayesian belief update. We consider static hazard detection in a communication-denied environment as a representative problem setting. The event of a robot returning from its path corresponds to a path-based hazard sensor reading of "0" (hazard not detected), while a robot failing to return corresponds to a reading of "1" (hazard detected). We consider false positives and false negatives. We find that the new method leads to quicker convergence of the belief map than prior work in both single- and multi-robot cases.

A central obstacle in nonlinear Bayesian filtering is representing the belief distribution. Moment-based filters address this by propagating polynomial moments and reconstructing a density from them. Recent work completes the predict-update loop via the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) principle, but each step requires the partition function and its gradient, both $n$-dimensional integrals whose cost scales exponentially, restricting the demonstrated MaxEnt moment filtering to $n \le 4$. We avoid the partition function entirely by combining score matching with Stein's identity. In our setting, score matching reduces the density fit to a single linear solve whose coefficients are assembled directly from the propagated moments. The same parameters then drive Stein's identity to close the moment hierarchy during prediction and to recover posterior moments after each Bayesian update, keeping the full predict-update loop free of partition function evaluation. The resulting Score Kalman Filter (SKF) reduces to the classical information-form Kalman filter as a special case and performs every step through linear algebra. On nonlinear coupled-oscillator networks, the SKF runs through $n=20$ and reports lower RMSE than the EKF, UKF, EnKF, and particle-filter baselines on the tested synthetic benchmarks.

Many consumer decisions are repeated choices under uncertainty. Standard models capture these decisions using Bayesian learning and dynamic programming: consumers update beliefs from feedback and use those beliefs to guide future choices. In many markets, however, learning does not restart when consumers enter a new context: prior experience with a brand, product, or provider can shape beliefs in later, related decisions. We study this cross-context knowledge transfer, or meta-learning, in sequential choice. We design a hierarchical laboratory task in which participants repeatedly choose among airlines across routes and observe noisy binary outcomes. Reduced-form evidence shows that participants improve not only within routes, but also across routes: they choose better airlines earlier in later routes and reduce pseudo-regret. To identify the mechanism behind this transfer, we compare human choices to a no-transfer benchmark and a fully integrated Bayesian meta-learning benchmark. In particular, we introduce a class of boundedly rational meta dynamic programming policies, BRMDP(D), that approximate full integration using a limited number of hyper-posterior draws, denoted by D. Trial-by-trial likelihood comparisons show that low-D boundedly rational meta-learning, especially BRMDP(1), fits participant behavior better than both no transfer and fully integrated Bayesian transfer. Consumers, therefore, transfer brand-level regularities across contexts, but through coarse representations of prior uncertainty. The findings imply that models of consumer learning should allow for approximate cross-context transfer, and that managerial counterfactuals based on either no-transfer or fully integrated learning can be misleading.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

Generative diffusion models can provide powerful prior probability models for inverse problems in imaging, but existing implementations suffer from two key limitations: $(i)$ the prior density is represented implicitly, and $(ii)$ they rely on likelihood approximations that introduce sampling biases. We address these challenges by introducing a new energy-based model trained for denoising with a covariance-based regularization term that enforces consistency across different measurement conditions. The trained model can compute normalized posterior densities for diverse linear inverse problems, without additional retraining or fine tuning. In addition to preserving the sampling capabilities of diffusion models, this enables previously unavailable capabilities: energy-guided adaptive sampling that adjusts schedules on-the-fly, unbiased Metropolis-Hastings correction steps, and blind estimation of the degradation operator via Bayes rule. We validate the method on multiple datasets (ImageNet, CelebA, AFHQ) and tasks (inpainting, deblurring), demonstrating competitive or superior performance to established baselines.

We consider amortized Bayesian inference for nonlinear inverse problems in settings where only samples from the joint distribution of parameters and observations are available. Classical methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo require solving a new inference problem for each observation, which can be computationally prohibitive when inference must be repeated many times. We propose a transport-based approach that learns an observation-dependent map pushing forward a reference measure to approximate the posterior distribution. The map is trained by minimizing an averaged energy-distance objective between the true posterior and the learned pushforward. This formulation is likelihood-free, requiring only joint samples, and avoids density evaluation, invertibility constraints, and Jacobian determinant computations. For function-space inverse problems with Gaussian priors, we parameterize the transport map as the identity plus a perturbation in the Cameron-Martin space of the prior, preserving absolute continuity with respect to the prior. In infinite-dimensional settings, the map is represented using neural operators. We illustrate the method on a finite-dimensional nonlinear inverse problem and two PDE-constrained inverse problems arising in porous medium flow and seismic inversion. The results show that the learned transport captures posterior structure, including multimodality and dominant modes, while enabling fast posterior sampling for new observations.

bde is a user-friendly Python package for Bayesian Deep Ensembles with a particular focus on tabular data. Built on an efficient JAX implementation of the sampling-based inference method Microcanonical Langevin Ensembles (MILE), it provides scikit-learn compatible estimators for fast training, efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and uncertainty quantification in both regression and classification tasks.

Integration against a probability distribution given its unnormalized density is a central task in Bayesian inference and other fields. We introduce new methods for approximating such expectations with a small set of weighted samples -- i.e., a quadrature rule -- constructed via an interacting particle system that minimizes maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to the target distribution. These methods extend the classical mean shift algorithm, as well as recent algorithms for optimal quantization of empirical distributions, to the case of continuous distributions. Crucially, our approach creates dynamics for MMD minimization that are invariant to the unknown normalizing constant; they also admit both gradient-free and gradient-informed implementations. The resulting mean shift interacting particle systems converge quickly, capture anisotropy and multi-modality, avoid mode collapse, and scale to high dimensions. We demonstrate their performance on a wide range of benchmark sampling problems, including multi-modal mixtures, Bayesian hierarchical models, PDE-constrained inverse problems, and beyond.

This work studies lung tumor growth prediction from sparse and irregular longitudinal computed tomography (CT) observations with measurement variability. A Bayesian physics-informed neural network is developed by combining Gompertz growth dynamics with low-dimensional Bayesian inference in the log-volume domain. The framework employs a two-stage inference strategy combining maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling to estimate posterior predictive distributions and uncertainty intervals. The method was evaluated on longitudinal data from the National Lung Screening Trial (30 patients). Results show that the model captures heterogeneous tumor growth patterns while maintaining reasonable prediction accuracy under limited observations. Compared with deterministic modeling approaches, the proposed approach additionally provides calibrated uncertainty estimates. The inferred posterior parameter correlations were consistent with expected biological growth behavior. The proposed framework achieved a cohort-level log-space RMSE of approximately 0.20 together with well-calibrated 95% credible interval coverage across 30 patients. These findings suggest that Bayesian physics-informed modeling may be useful for uncertainty-aware tumor growth assessment when only limited longitudinal follow-up scans are available.

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be \emph{continuous}. However, many scientific models involve parameter spaces that are \emph{mixed}, that is, they contain both discrete and continuous dimensions. We address this limitation by extending NPE to mixed parameter spaces through an inference network that jointly handles discrete and continuous parameters. The inference network factorizes the joint posterior into discrete and continuous components, combining an autoregressive classifier for the discrete parameters with a generative model for the continuous parameters, trained jointly under a single simulation-based objective. In addition, we propose a diagnostic tool to assess the calibration of the mixed posterior approximation. Across tractable toy examples and real-world scientific simulators, our joint inference approach yields accurate and calibrated posteriors. The inference framework is available in the \texttt{sbi} Python package.

Synapses are densely packed submicron structures that dynamically reorganize during learning and memory formation. Longitudinal \textit{in vivo} imaging of fluorescently tagged synaptic receptors offers a promising opportunity to study large-scale synaptic dynamics and how these processes are disrupted in neurological disease. However, in vivo imaging with 2-photon microscopy uses low laser power and therefore suffers from low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and high shot noise, nonlinear tissue motion between days, nonstationary fluctuations in synaptic fluorescence, and significant blur induced by the microscope point spread function (PSF). Together, these factors make it challenging to detect and track synapses, especially in regions with high synaptic density. This paper presents a novel template-based framework for modeling synapses as varying luminance point sources that move under a nonlinear tissue deformation. Taking a unified Bayesian approach, we apply this model to microscopy data by deriving a posterior that incorporates a diffeomorphic mapping for domain warping, a Gaussian point spread function for the imaging process, and a Poisson observation model for raw photon counts. The Bayesian solution simultaneously: (1) Constructs a probabilistic template of synapse locations, (2) denoises and deconvolves the image data, (3) infers fluorescence intensities, (4) performs diffeomorphic image registration to correct for tissue motion, and (5) provides confidence regions for these parameter estimates. We demonstrate the framework on both a 2D+t simulated dataset and a 3D+t longitudinal \textit{in vivo} microscopy dataset of fluorescent synapses imaged in a mouse over two weeks.

Deep neural networks generalize well despite being heavily overparameterized, in apparent contradiction with classical learning theory based on uniform convergence over fixed hypothesis spaces. Uniform bounds over the entire parameter space are vacuous in this regime, and recent work has shown that non-vacuous guarantees can be recovered by restricting attention to the part of parameter space that the algorithm actually visits. This survey paper organizes this line of work around three steps: extending PAC-Bayesian theory to random, data-dependent hypothesis sets (arXiv:2404.17442); refining the complexity term with geometric and topological descriptors of the optimization trajectory, including fractal dimensions, alpha-weighted lifetime sums, and positive magnitude (arXiv:2006.09313, arXiv:2302.02766, arXiv:2407.08723); and replacing the resulting information-theoretic terms by stability assumptions (arXiv:2507.06775). We unify these contributions around a single template inequality and a head-to-head comparison of the resulting bounds.

A likelihood-free transport filtering method is proposed based on the couplings between state and observation variables. By exploiting a block-triangular structure in the transport map, the analysis step of filtering is reformulated as the minimization of the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between the true joint measure and its transport-based approximation. To circumvent the non-convexity in the MMD optimization, we introduce a training-free transport filter method via gradient flows, which leads to an analytic computation for the transport map that implies the steepest descent direction of the MMD. The proposed approach accurately approximates non-Gaussian filtering posteriors and avoids particle collapse. We provide a convergence analysis for the expectation of the MMD between the approximated posterior and the truth posterior. Finally, we extend the method to high-dimensional problems through domain localization. Numerical examples demonstrate the superior performance of our approach over conventional filtering methods in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios.

Modern Bayesian optimization and adaptive sampling methods increasingly rely on nonlinear parametric models, yet theoretical guarantees for such models under adaptive data collection remain limited. Existing analyses largely focus on Gaussian processes, kernel machines, linear models, or linearized neural approximations, leaving a gap between theory and the nonlinear models used in practice. We develop a kernel based framework for analyzing regularized nonlinear parametric models trained on adaptively collected data. Our approach uses kernels over the parameter space to induce reproducing kernel Hilbert space structures over the corresponding model class, yielding confidence bounds for models trained with broad classes of regularized convex losses. We show how these bounds can support convergence guarantees for nonlinear acquisition and surrogate models, including randomized regularized policies that select points by maximizing a trained random model. These results provide a unified route to analyzing nonlinear parametric models in Bayesian optimization and related adaptive optimization settings.

The instrumental-variables (IV) setting is standard for partial identification of causal effects when unobserved confounding makes point identification impossible. Existing approaches face methodological bottlenecks: closed-form bound estimands are required -- e.g., Balke-Pearl equations in binary IV -- and even when available, designing accurate estimators requires manual effort tailored to each estimand. While direct Bayesian inference of the causal effects, instead of the bounds, circumvents these challenges, it is often computationally intensive and suffers from high prior sensitivity or under-dispersed posteriors. As a remedy, we introduce IV-ICL, an amortized Bayesian in-context learning method that learns the marginal posterior distribution of the causal effects directly and derives bounds as its quantiles. Unlike standard variational inference that optimizes exclusive KL divergence, amortized Bayesian inference minimizes the expected inclusive KL, a mass-covering objective. We empirically observe that optimizing inclusive KL can recover the entire identified set across diverse data-generating processes, while exclusive-KL (e.g. with variational inference) of the same Bayesian formulation collapses onto a single mode and fails to cover the identified set. We evaluate IV-ICL on synthetic and semi-synthetic IV benchmarks and show it produces intervals that are more reliably valid and more informative compared to efficient semi-parametric, Bayesian, and plug-in baselines, at 20-500x lower inference time. Beyond methodology, we propose a procedure to convert randomized controlled trials into IV benchmarks with provably preserved ground-truth causal effects that enables a more realistic evaluation of partial-identification methods.

Model merging aims to combine multiple task-specific expert models into a single model without joint retraining, offering a practical alternative to multi-task learning when data access or computational budget is limited. Existing methods, however, face two key limitations: (1) they overlook the valuable inductive bias of strong anchor models and estimate the merged weights from scratch, and (2) they rely on a shared hyperparameter setting across different modules of the network, lacking a global optimization strategy. This paper introduces Bayesian Model Merging (BMM), a plug-and-play bi-level optimization framework, where the inner level formulates the model merging as an activation-based Bayesian regression under a strong prior induced by an anchor model, yielding an efficient closed-form solution; and the outer level leverages a Bayesian optimization procedure to search module-specific hyperparameters globally based on a small validation set. Furthermore, we reveal a key alignment between activation statistics and task vectors, enabling us to derive a data-free variant of BMM that estimates the Gram matrix for regression without any auxiliary data. Across extensive benchmarks, including up to 20-task merging in vision and 5-task merging in language, BMM consistently outperforms all plug-and-play anchor baselines (e.g., TA, WUDI-Merging, and TSV). In particular, on the ViT-L/14 benchmark for 8-task merging, a single merged model reaches 95.1, closely matching the average performance of eight task-specific experts (95.8).

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose to bypass the parameter posterior and focus directly on approximating the posterior predictive distribution. We achieve this by drawing inspiration from self-training within self-supervised and semi-supervised learning. Essentially, we quantify a Bayesian model's predictive uncertainty by refitting on self-predicted data. The idea is strikingly simple: If a model assigns high likelihood to self-predicted data, these predictions are of low uncertainty, and vice versa. This yields a deterministic, sampling-free approximation of the posterior predictive. The modular structure of our Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation (SSLA) further allows us to plug in different prior specifications, enabling classical Bayesian sensitivity (w.r.t. prior choice) analysis. In order to bypass expensive refitting, we further introduce an approximate version of SSLA, called ASSLA. We study (A)SSLA both theoretically and empirically in regression models ranging from Bayesian linear models to Bayesian neural networks. Across a wide array of regression tasks with simulated and real-world datasets, our methods outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration while remaining computationally efficient.

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods, but most SBI methods assume a black-box data generating process. While these surrogates are exact in the limit of infinite training data, practical scenarios force a strict tradeoff between model quality and simulation cost. In this work, we loosen the black-box assumption of SBI to improve this tradeoff for structured stochastic process models. Specifically, for neural network likelihood surrogates trained via probabilistic classification, we propose to augment the standard binary cross-entropy loss with exact score information $\nabla_θ\log p(x \mid θ)$ and adaptive weighting based on loss gradients. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that our method improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.

Constant Liar (CL), Kriging Believer (KB), and fantasy models are widely used for batch selection in parallel Bayesian Optimization, yet a unified theory explaining their effectiveness and conditions under which they fail has been lacking. We identify efficient conditioning as the key surrogate property the ability to update predictions in closed form when data is augmented. We prove that Gaussian Processes satisfy this requirement, producing provably distinct batch points with separation of order l, and that this holds for any acquisition function monotonically non decreasing in posterior uncertainty (EI, UCB, PI), with qualitatively similar behavior for Thompson Sampling. We unify CL, KB, and fantasy models as instances of a single conditioning mechanism differing only in the lie value distribution, and draw quantitative connections to Local Penalization (LP) and qualitative connections to Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs). To disentangle model structure from optimizer randomness, we introduce the Structural Diversity Diagnostic (SDD), a reusable methodology for testing surrogate compatibility. Experiments on Hartmann6D, Ackley 8D, Levy10D, and SVM hyperparameter tuning validate all theoretical predictions: CL or KBs implicit penalty matches or outperforms explicit LP greedy conditioning achieves convergence on par with joint qEI efficient conditioning extends to Multiquadric RBF networks; and parametric surrogates produce degenerate batches even when fully retrained (random forests), while neural networks regain diversity only at 15x the wall clock cost of GP conditioning. Robustness is confirmed across multiple initial datasets and under observation noise.

Human-in-the-loop Bayesian optimization (HITL BO) methods utilize human expertise to improve the sample-efficiency of BO. Most HITL BO methods assume that a domain expert can quantify their knowledge, for instance by pinpointing query locations or specifying their prior beliefs about the location of the maximum as a probability distribution. However, since human expertise is often tacit and cannot be explicitly quantified, we consider a setting where domain knowledge of an expert is elicited via pairwise comparisons of designs. We interpret the expert's pairwise judgements as noisy evidence about the values of the observable objective function and develop a principled method for combining the information obtained via direct observations and pairwise queries. Specifically, we derive a cost-aware value-of-information acquisition function that balances direct observations against pairwise queries. The proposed method approaches the convex hull of the trajectories of the individual information sources: when pairwise queries are cheap it substantially improves sample-efficiency over observation-only BO, and when pairwise queries are costly or noisy, it recovers the performance of standard BO by relying on direct observations alone.

Diffusion-based posterior sampling (PS) is a leading framework for imaging inverse problems, combining learned priors with measurement constraints. Yet, its standard formulations rely on instantaneous data-consistent estimates, which induce temporal variability in the reverse dynamics. We reinterpret PS from a dynamical perspective, showing that the standard PS update corresponds to a first-order discretization of the diffusion dynamics plus a residual correction capturing the mismatch between the denoised prediction and the data-consistent estimate. A second-order discretization, however, naturally introduces a temporal correction based on the variation of consecutive estimates. Building on this, we propose LAMP, combining the second-order update with the residual correction characterizing a PS technique. LAMP thus inherits a lagged temporal correction, and it can be implemented as a modular plug-in over the PS backbone. We show that LAMP preserves the structure of a posterior sampler, and we perform a one-step risk analysis to characterize when LAMP improves the reverse transition via a bias-variance trade-off. Experiments across multiple imaging tasks demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines such as DiffPIR and DDRM, without increasing the number of denoising evaluations.

Collaborative machine learning involves training high-quality models using datasets from a number of sources. To incentivize sources to share data, existing data valuation methods fairly reward each source based on its data submitted as is. However, as these methods do not verify nor incentivize data truthfulness, the sources can manipulate their data (e.g., by submitting duplicated or noisy data) to artificially increase their valuations and rewards or prevent others from benefiting. This paper presents the first mechanism that provably ensures (F) collaborative fairness and incentivizes (T) truthfulness at equilibrium for Bayesian models. Our mechanism combines semivalues (e.g., Shapley value), which ensure fairness, and a truthful data valuation function (DVF) based on a validation set that is unknown to the sources. As semivalues are influenced by others' data, we introduce an additional condition to prove that a source can maximize its expected data values in coalitions and semivalues by submitting a dataset that captures its true knowledge. Additionally, we discuss the implications and suitable relaxations of (F) and (T) when the mediator has a limited budget for rewards or lacks a validation set. Our theoretical findings are validated on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Score-based diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art performance for inverse problems, but their practical deployment is hindered by long inference times and cumbersome hyperparameter tuning. While pretrained diffusion models can be reused across tasks without retraining, inference-time hyperparameters such as the noise schedule and posterior sampling weights typically require ad-hoc adjustment for each problem setup. We propose principled reparameterizations that induce invariances, allowing the same hyperparameters to be reused across multiple problems without re-tuning. In addition, building on the RED-diff framework, which reformulates posterior sampling as an optimization problem, we further develop the OptDiff pipeline. OptDiff provides a simplified tuning framework that facilitates the integration of convex optimization tools to accelerate inference. Experiments on image reconstruction, deblurring, and super-resolution show substantial speedups and improved image quality.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed on long-horizon tasks in partially observable environments, where they must act while inferring and tracking a complex environment state over many steps. This leads to two challenges: partial observability requires maintaining uncertainty over unobserved world attributes, and long interaction history causes context to grow without bound, diluting task-relevant information. A principled solution to both challenges is a belief state: a posterior distribution over environment states given past observations and actions, which compactly encodes history for decision making regardless of episode length. In LLM agents, however, the open-ended nature of text makes it unclear how to represent such a distribution. Therefore, we introduce Agent-BRACE: Agent Belief state Representation via Abstraction and Confidence Estimation, a method that decouples an LLM agent into a belief state model and a policy model, jointly optimized via reinforcement learning. The belief state model produces a structured approximation of the belief distribution: a set of atomic natural language claims about the environment, each annotated with an ordinal verbalized certainty label ranging from certain to unknown. The policy model conditions on this compact, structured approximate belief rather than the full history, learning to select actions under explicit uncertainty. Across long-horizon, partially observable embodied language environments, Agent-BRACE achieves an average absolute improvement of +14.5% (Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct) and +5.3% (Qwen3-4B-Instruct), outperforming strong RL baselines while maintaining a near-constant context window independent of episode length. Further analysis shows that the learned belief becomes increasingly calibrated over the course of an episode as evidence accumulates.

Many three-dimensional spatial fields are anisotropic, with directions of rapid and slow variation that need not align with the coordinate axes. Standard Gaussian process kernels with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) capture only axis-aligned anisotropy, while generic full symmetric positive definite (SPD) metrics can represent rotated anisotropy but do not parameterise principal length-scales and directions directly. We introduce an interpretable rotationally anisotropic GP kernel that parameterises a three-dimensional SPD covariance metric using three principal length-scales and an explicit SO(3) rotation. The rotation is represented by an axis-angle vector and mapped to SO(3) via the Lie-algebra exponential map, giving unconstrained Euclidean coordinates for inference while always inducing a valid SPD metric. The construction spans the same family of three-dimensional SPD covariance metrics as a generic full-SPD parameterisation, but exposes the geometry differently: length-scales and orientation are explicit, interpretable, and directly available for prior specification and posterior summaries. We perform Bayesian inference on these quantities using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and characterise the resulting symmetries and weakly identified regimes. On synthetic data with rotated anisotropy, the posterior recovers the generating metric and improves prediction relative to an axis-aligned ARD baseline, while matching the predictive performance of a generic full SPD baseline. When the ground truth is axis-aligned, posterior mass concentrates near the identity rotation and predictive performance matches ARD. On a material-density dataset from a laboratory-fabricated nano-brick, the inferred metric reveals rotated anisotropy that is not captured by axis-aligned kernels.

The remarkable achievements of both generative models of 2D images and neural field representations for 3D scenes present a compelling opportunity to integrate the strengths of both approaches. In this work, we propose a methodology that combines a NeRF-based representation of 3D scenes with probabilistic modeling and reasoning using diffusion models. We view 3D reconstruction as a perception problem with inherent uncertainty that can thereby benefit from probabilistic inference methods. The core idea is to represent the 3D scene as a stochastic latent variable for which we can learn a prior and use it to perform posterior inference given a set of observations. We formulate posterior sampling using the score-based inference method of diffusion models in conjunction with a likelihood term computed from a reconstruction model that includes volumetric rendering. We train the model using a two-stage process: first we train the reconstruction model while auto-decoding the latent representations for a dataset of 3D scenes, and then we train the prior over the latents using a diffusion model. By using the model to generate samples from the posterior we demonstrate that various 3D reconstruction tasks can be performed, differing by the type of observation used as inputs. We showcase reconstruction from single-view, multi-view, noisy images, sparse pixels, and sparse depth data. These observations vary in the amount of information they provide for the scene and we show that our method can model the varying levels of inherent uncertainty associated with each task. Our experiments illustrate that this approach yields a comprehensive method capable of accurately predicting 3D structure from diverse types of observations.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions, commonly based on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models. Its effectiveness relies on uncertainty quantification that is both sharp (informative) and well-calibrated along the BO trajectory. In practice, GP kernel hyperparameters are unknown and are refit online from sequentially collected (non-i.i.d.) data, which can yield miscalibrated or overly conservative uncertainty and lies outside the fixed-kernel assumptions of standard BO regret theory. We propose Online Sharp-Calibrated Bayesian Optimization (OSCBO), a BO algorithm that adaptively balances GP sharpness and calibration by casting hyperparameter selection as a constrained online-learning problem. We also show that OSCBO preserves sublinear regret bounds by leveraging the theoretical guarantees of the underlying online learning algorithm. Empirically, OSCBO performs competitively across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, ranking among the strongest methods in final simple regret while maintaining robust cumulative-regret behavior.

We study the information-theoretic limits of learning a one-hidden-layer teacher network with hierarchical features from noisy queries, in the context of knowledge transfer to a smaller student model. We work in the high-dimensional regime where the teacher width $k$ scales linearly with the input dimension $d$ -- a setting that captures large-but-finite-width networks and has only recently become analytically tractable. Using a heuristic leave-one-out decoupling argument, validated numerically throughout, we derive asymptotically sharp characterizations of the Bayes-optimal generalization error and individual feature overlaps via a system of closed fixed-point equations. These equations reveal that feature learnability is governed by a sequence of sharp phase transitions: as data grows, teacher features become recoverable sequentially, each through a discontinuous jump in overlap. This sequential acquisition underlies a precise notion of \textit{effective width} $k_c$ -- the number of learnable features at a given data budget $n$ -- which unifies two distinct scaling regimes: a feature-learning regime in which the Bayes-optimal generalization error $\varepsilon^{\rm BO}$ scales as $n^{1/(2β)-1}$, and a refinement regime in which it scales as $n^{-1}$, where $β>1/2$ is the exponent of the power-law feature hierarchy. Both laws collapse to the single relation $\varepsilon^{\rm BO}=Θ(k_c d/n)$. We further show empirically that a student trained with \textsc{Adam} near the effective width $k_c$ achieves these optimal scaling laws (up to a small algorithmic gap), and provide an information-theoretic account of the associated scaling in model size.

Reliable inference requires that artificial intelligence (AI) models provide trustworthy uncertainty estimates, not merely accurate predictions. Recent advances in Bayesian learning have made significant progress toward this goal, and growing concerns about computational overhead have jointly shifted the design criterion from reliability alone to the co-design of reliability and efficiency, i.e., reducing computational overhead while preserving trustworthy uncertainty quantification. This thesis develops a unified framework from two perspectives to address the central question: can we efficiently perform reliable inference?

A central challenge in large-scale decision-making under incomplete information is estimating reliable probabilities. Recent approaches use Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate explanatory factors and coarse-grained probability estimates, which are then refined by a Naïve Bayes model over factor combinations. However, sparse factor spaces often yield unknown'' predictions, while expanding factors increases noise and spurious correlations, weakening conditional independence and degrading reliability. To address these limitations, we propose \textsc{Anchor}, an aggregated Bayesian inference framework over a hierarchical factor space. It constructs dense factor hierarchies through iterative generation and clustering, maps contexts via hierarchical retrieval and refinement, and augments Naïve Bayes with a Causal Bayesian Network to model latent factor dependencies. Experiments show that \textsc{Anchor} markedly reduces unknown'' predictions and produces more reliable probability estimates than direct LLM baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance while significantly reducing time and token overhead.

Frontier coding agents read configuration files (CLAUDE$.$md, AGENTS$.$md, Cursor Rules) at session start and are expected to follow the conventions inside them. Practitioners assume that structural choices (file size, instruction position, file architecture, contradictions in adjacent files) measurably affect adherence. We report a systematic factorial study of these choices using four manipulated variables, measuring compliance with a trivial target annotation across 1,650 Claude Code CLI sessions (16,050 function-level observations) on two TypeScript codebases, three frontier models (primarily Sonnet 4.6, with Opus 4.6 as a CLI-matched cross-model check and Opus 4.7 reported descriptively under a CLI-version confound), and five coding tasks. We use mixed-effects models with a Bayesian companion. None of the four structural variables or three two-way interactions produces a detectable contrast after multiple-testing correction. Size and conflict nulls are supported by affirmative-null Bayes factors (BF10 between 0.05 and 0.10); position and architecture nulls are failures to reject without Bayes-factor support. The largest effect we measured is within-session: each additional function the agent generates is associated with approximately 5.6% lower odds of compliance per step (OR = 0.944) within the session-length range we tested, though the relationship is non-monotonic rather than a constant per-step effect. This reproduces on a second TypeScript codebase and on Opus 4.6 at matched configuration; it was identified during analysis rather than pre-specified. Within the conditions tested, file-structure variables did not produce detectable contrasts; compliance varies systematically between coding tasks and across each session's sequence of generated functions.

Modern predictive systems encode beliefs that can act as useful prior information for statistical inference in data-limited settings. Using them for prior construction introduces a tradeoff: an informative prior built from a predictive model can sharpen inference from limited data, but also risks propagating error from the model into the posterior. We propose a framework for AI-informed prior elicitation that mitigates this tension by rectifying the AI-induced law that generates synthetic data before using it to inform a prior. The rectified law can be embedded into synthetic data-driven prior elicitation techniques, including as a base measure in a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the data-generating process. We refer to the resulting prior and corresponding posterior as the rectified AI prior and rectified AI posterior. We establish Gaussian asymptotics for the rectified AI posterior under non-vanishing prior strength and derive a first-order expression for its centering bias. Our rectified AI priors substantially reduce bias compared to standard approaches, improve the coverage of credible intervals, and make AI-powered prior information more reliable. We additionally apply the rectified AI prior to a real skin disease classification task and show that it can meaningfully boost predictive performance.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models, primarily due to their ability to enable parallel decoding. Despite this advantage, most existing DLMs rely on a fixed generation length specified prior to decoding, which restricts their flexibility in real-world applications. While a few recent works attempt to support flexible-length generation, they typically suffer from notable limitations: some require costly retraining to accommodate variable-length outputs, while others depend solely on local confidence signals during decoding. Such local criteria fail to capture the evolving structure of the sequence, often resulting in suboptimal generation quality. In this paper, we propose a training-free, Bayesian structured decoding framework that formulates flexible-length generation as a dynamic structural inference problem. Our approach formulates flexible-length generation as a dynamic structural inference problem, jointly computing the expansion length, the block boundaries, and the decoding schedule. At each window expansion step, the method integrates local uncertainty with structural signals via a unified mechanism that supports dynamic structured generation, including both flexible block expansion and block organization, while maintaining coherence. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly improves generation quality and flexibility over existing fixed-length and flexible-length baselines. These results highlight the advantage of Bayesian structured decoding for diffusion language model, providing a principled and efficient solution for structured text generation.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an efficient framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions. However, it is typically formulated as learning an end-to-end mapping from inputs to scalar objectives, thereby discarding the potentially rich information whenever a structured system output is available. In this work, we study Bayesian optimization over a vector-valued operator with structured measurements, where each measurement observes multidimensional or functional outputs, e.g., trajectories or spatial fields, rather than a single scalar value. The objective is then defined as a linear functional of these measurements. This allows each observation to reveal substantially richer information about the underlying system compared to scalar observations. Assuming the unknown operator lies in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), we derive high-probability concentration bounds for the kernel ridge regression (KRR) estimator directly in the measurement space, characterizing uncertainty in a general Hilbert space. Building on these results, we propose an algorithm based on the upper confidence bound (UCB) acquisition function with regret guarantees under mild assumptions, recovering sublinear rates for common kernels. Empirically, we demonstrate that leveraging structured measurements leads to improved sample efficiency by enabling efficient transfer of information across objectives and adaptation to time-varying settings.

Although large language models rely on chain-of-thought for complex reasoning, the overthinking phenomenon severely degrades inference efficiency. Existing reinforcement learning methods compress reasoning chains by designing elaborate reward functions, which renders high-quality samples extremely sparse in the exploration space and creates a sampling bottleneck for the prior policy. Inspired by cognitive science, we theoretically prove that a posterior distribution guided by reference answers achieves higher expected utility than the prior distribution, thus capable of breaking through the sampling bottleneck of high-quality samples. However, the posterior distribution is unavailable during inference. To this end, we formalize efficient reasoning as a variational inference problem and introduce an efficiency-aware evidence lower bound as the theoretical foundation. Based on this, we propose the VPG-EA framework. It adopts a parameter-shared dual-stream architecture to instantiate both the posterior distribution and the prior policy; after filtering out pseudo-efficient paths via cross-view evaluation, it unidirectionally transfers the posterior's efficient patterns to the prior policy through variational distillation. Experiments on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B and 7B scales demonstrate that VPG-EA improves the comprehensive efficiency metric epsilon cubed by 8.73% and 12.37% over the strongest baselines on each model size, respectively.

The problem of predicting unobserved entries in a binary matrix, known as 1-bit matrix completion, has found diverse applications in fields such as recommendation systems. In this study, we develop an empirical Bayes method for 1-bit matrix completion motivated by the Efron--Morris estimator, a matrix generalization of the James--Stein estimator that shrinks singular values toward zero. The proposed method exploits the underlying low-rank structure of binary matrices, drawing parallels with multidimensional item response theory. Simulation studies and real-data applications demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a superior balance of predictive accuracy, calibration reliability (uncertainty quantification), and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.

In this (work in progress) paper, we present Bounded Pragmatic Listener (or BPL), a cognitively grounded Bayesian framework for modelling susceptibility to information disorder. BPL extends Rational Speech Act theory with three cognitively motivated bounds derived from the bounded rationality literature with a) a recursion depth bound (that emphasises working memory limits);b) a prior compression parameter (which is oriented at capturing information bottleneck); and c) an availability sample size (that operationalises importance sampling with saliency-weighted proposals). This allows us to test predictions about misinformation susceptibility, annotator disagreement, and the differential vulnerability to mis-, dis-, and mal-information as defined in the Information Disorder framework. We validate BPL on the LIAR and MultiFC benchmarks showcasing competitive veracity classification and experimental support for the depth-mismatch paradox.

We study posterior sampling for inverse problems in discrete state spaces using discrete diffusion models as generative priors. While continuous diffusion models have become widely used for inverse problems, their discrete counterparts remain comparatively underexplored. Existing discrete posterior samplers often rely on continuous relaxations of discrete variables, Gibbs-style updates, or mechanisms specialized to particular corruption processes, which can limit scalability or generality. We propose $Δ$LPS, a Discrete Langevin-Inspired Posterior Sampler that uses gradient information to identify promising discrete moves without leaving the discrete state space. The resulting approach enables efficient parallel updates across all token dimensions and is agnostic to the training paradigm of the discrete diffusion prior, including masked and uniform-state diffusion. We evaluate our method on image restoration tasks across MNIST, CIFAR, and FFHQ, as well as spatial mapping, covering linear, nonlinear, and blind inverse problems. Across these settings, we improve over recent discrete diffusion posterior samplers and are competitive with strong continuous diffusion-based inverse solvers. Our results suggest that fully discrete, gradient-informed posterior samplers offer a scalable and general path toward solving inverse problems over discrete representations.