Probabilistic Model
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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 9% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.
Latest papers 109
Aligning structured data is a fundamental problem in computer vision and machine learning, underlying tasks such as time series analysis, human action recognition, and visual representation learning. Existing alignment methods, including Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and its differentiable variants, rely on deterministic similarity measures and are therefore sensitive to heterogeneous and noisy features. In this work, we introduce uncertainty-aware alignment, a probabilistic framework that models pairwise correspondences with heteroscedastic uncertainty and performs structured matching along alignment paths. Our formulation, uncertainty-DTW (uDTW), assigns each correspondence a Normal distribution and parametrizes each alignment path by a Maximum Likelihood Estimate objective consisting of (i) a precision-weighted matching term that suppresses unreliable features, and (ii) a log-variance regularization that prevents degenerate solutions. This yields a probabilistic alignment mechanism that is robust to noise and interpretable, as uncertainty directly reflects the reliability of matches. We further generalize this framework from temporal sequences to tokenized visual representations, enabling structured matching over sets of visual tokens. The learned uncertainty can be interpreted as a reverse-attention: semantically relevant regions exhibit low uncertainty and dominate the alignment, while ambiguous/noisy regions have high uncertainty. This provides a connection between alignment, attention, and uncertainty modeling. We evaluate the proposed framework across diverse domains. The results demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art methods and show that learned uncertainty correlates with semantic importance. These findings establish uncertainty-aware alignment as a general, robust, and interpretable framework for learning from structured data.
ChainFlow-VLA: Causal Flow Planning with Vision-Language Models
Current end-to-end autonomous driving systems are fundamentally limited by a mismatch between temporal causal reasoning and global trajectory consistency. Autoregressive (AR) models capture interaction-aware temporal dependencies via causal factorization, but their step-wise decoding leads to error accumulation and suboptimal global structure. In contrast, diffusion models optimize trajectories globally but lack explicit causal constraints, making them unreliable in interactive and safety-critical scenarios. This dichotomy reveals a deeper issue: existing methods treat causal modeling and global optimization as separate paradigms, without a principled way to unify them within a single trajectory distribution. To address this, we propose ChainFlow-VLA, which unifies causal generation and global refinement within a unified probabilistic framework. We formulate planning as a mixture over AR-induced modes and learn Vision-Language Model (VLM)-conditioned residual distributions over these modes. An autoregressive generator (Chain) produces a discrete set of causal trajectory modes, followed by a diffusion-based refiner (Flow) that leverages VLM hidden states as semantic priors to perform mode-conditioned correction in residual space while preserving causal structure. This straightforward conditioning seamlessly injects high-level scene understanding into fine-grained trajectory adjustments. Experiments demonstrate that ChainFlow-VLA achieves robust planning in ambiguous and long-tail scenarios, achieving a state-of-the-art score of 94.85 on the NAVSIM v1 leaderboard, matching human-level performance (94.8). Code will be available at https://github.com/AFARI-Research/ChainFlow-VLA.
Training Neural Networks with Optimal Double-Bayesian Learning
Backpropagation with gradient descent is a common optimization strategy employed by most neural network architectures in machine learning. However, finding optimal hyperparameters to guide training has proven challenging. While it is widely acknowledged that selecting appropriate parameters is crucial for avoiding overfitting and achieving unbiased outcomes, this choice remains largely based on empirical experiments and experience. This paper presents a new probabilistic framework for the learning rate, a key parameter in stochastic gradient descent. The framework develops classic Bayesian statistics into a double-Bayesian decision mechanism involving two antagonistic Bayesian processes. A theoretically optimal learning rate can be derived from these two processes and used for stochastic gradient descent. Experiments across various classification, segmentation, and detection tasks corroborate the practical significance of the theoretically derived learning rate. The paper also discusses the ramifications of the proposed double-Bayesian framework for network training and model performance.
Probabilistic Tiny Recursive Model
Tiny Recursive Models (TRM) solve complex reasoning tasks with a fraction of the parameters of modern large language models (LLMs) by iteratively refining a latent state and final answer. While powerful, their deterministic recursion can lead to convergence at suboptimal solutions, without escape mechanism. A common workaround relies on task-specific input perturbations at test time combined with answer aggregation via voting. We introduce Probabilistic TRM (PTRM), a task-agnostic framework for test-time compute scaling that addresses this limitation through stochastic exploration. PTRM injects Gaussian noise at each deep recursion step, enabling parallel trajectories to explore diverse solution basins, and selects among them using the model's existing Q head (used for early stopping in the original TRM). Without requiring retraining or task-specific augmentations, PTRM enables substantial accuracy gains across benchmarks, including Sudoku-Extreme (87.4% to 98.75%) and on various puzzles from Pencil Puzzle Bench (62.6% to 91.2%). On the latter, PTRM achieves nearly double the accuracy of frontier LLMs (91.2% vs. 55.1%) at less than 0.0001x the cost, using only 7M parameters.
Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process
This paper studies sampling error bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) in the 2-Wasserstein distance. Our contributions are threefold. (i) Under general Lipschitz-type conditions on the score function and for a broad class of variance schedules, including the cosine schedule, we establish sharp upper bounds that are optimal in both the dimension and the number of steps, and recover several sharp error bounds previously obtained in the literature. (ii) We prove that the same Lipschitz-type conditions, which encompass those commonly imposed on the (learned) score, imply a logarithmic Sobolev inequality and hence a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the DDPM. As a consequence, in settings covered by existing work, an optimal Wasserstein bound, up to a logarithmic factor, follows from the recently obtained sharp error bound in the Kullback-Leibler divergence under geometric-type variance schedules. (iii) We show that for general log-concave target distributions, the optimal Wasserstein error bound remains attainable even without a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the target. Our analysis is based on viewing the DDPM sampler as a discretization of the Föllmer process rather than the conventional reverse Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
Connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model
The Föllmer process is a Brownian motion conditioned to have a pre-specified distribution at time 1. This process can be interpreted as an ``augmented'' time-compressed version of the reverse stochastic differential equation (SDE) corresponding to the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM). While this fact has been indirectly used to analyze DDPM sampling errors via discretization of the reverse SDE, the connection between direct discretization of the Föllmer process and the DDPM sampler has not yet been fully explored. This paper clarifies this point while surveying relevant results from the literature. We show that discretized Föllmer processes give natural hyper-parameter settings of the DDPM sampler while accommodating a broader class of variance schedules than discretized reverse SDEs. Moreover, this allows us to systematically recover state-of-the-art results on DDPM sampling error bounds, along with slight improvements.
Bayesian-Monte Carlo Schedule Updating for Construction Digital Twins: A Probabilistic Framework for Dynamic Project Forecasting
Construction projects frequently experience schedule delays and forecasting uncertainty due to variability in labor productivity, material availability, weather conditions, and project coordination. Conventional deterministic scheduling methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) assume fixed activity durations and therefore cannot adequately represent dynamic project uncertainty. This study presents a Bayesian-Monte Carlo probabilistic schedule updating framework for construction digital twin environments. The proposed methodology integrates stochastic activity-duration modeling, Bayesian recursive updating, Monte Carlo simulation, and uncertainty propagation within a unified computational framework for adaptive schedule forecasting. Activity durations are modeled using lognormal probability distributions and continuously updated through Bayesian inference as new project observations become available. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to propagate updated uncertainty throughout project networks and generate probabilistic completion-time forecasts, delay-risk estimates, and activity criticality measures. Simulation experiments using PSPLIB benchmark project networks demonstrate that the proposed framework improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty representation compared with deterministic CPM and static probabilistic scheduling approaches. The framework further supports adaptive project forecasting through integration of BIM reports, drone observations, IoT telemetry, productivity logs, and site monitoring data.
Njord: A Probabilistic Graph Neural Network for Ensemble Ocean Forecasting
Ocean dynamics are inherently chaotic, yet existing machine learning ocean models produce only deterministic forecasts. We introduce Njord, a probabilistic data-driven model for ocean forecasting, applicable to both global and regional domains. Njord combines a deep latent variable framework with a graph neural network architecture, enabling sampling each forecast step in a single forward pass. We apply Njord globally at 0.25° resolution and regionally to the Baltic Sea at 2 km resolution. To scale to these large ocean grids we introduce K-means cluster meshes that adapt to irregular sea surface geometry. Experiments demonstrate strong performance on both domains compared to deterministic machine learning baselines, while also providing uncertainty estimates from the sampled ensemble forecasts. On the global OceanBench benchmark, Njord achieves the lowest errors on average across upper-ocean variables when evaluated against real-world observations, with the largest improvements in surface temperature prediction.
Contextual Bandits for Resource-Constrained Devices using Probabilistic Learning
Contextual bandits (CB) are online sequential decision-making problems under partial feedback that underpin many adaptive services. There is a growing demand to deploy CB agents directly on-device, under strict constraints on memory, compute, and energy. However, standard linear CB algorithms are often impractical for resource-constrained devices with their unfavorable scaling in computational and memory costs. Recently, HD-CB, a CB approach based on hyperdimensional computing principles, has been proposed to model and solve CB problems by moving into high-dimensional spaces. HD-CB offers faster convergence, favorable scalability, and improves memory efficiency compared to linear CB algorithms. However, its learning rule is accumulation-based: the values of action vectors grow over time, requiring high precision. While periodic binarization can prevent overflow in low-precision components, it may discard important information about magnitudes and degrade decision quality. This paper introduces probabilistic HD-CB, a low-precision variant that replaces deterministic accumulation with a probabilistic update rule. At each step, only a random subset of vector components is updated, with a time-decaying update probability, and component values are constrained to a predefined range [-k,+k]. This approach enables low-precision components, prevents overflow without periodic binarization, and reduces the expected update cost in proportion to the fraction of updated components. Off-policy evaluation on standardized synthetic CB benchmarks using the Open Bandit Pipeline shows that probabilistic HD-CB consistently outperforms binarized HD-CB at equal precision, while approaching the performance of HD-CB with as few as 3 bits per component.
The Expressivity Boundary of Probabilistic Circuits: A Comparison with Large Language Models
Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are deep generative models that support exact and efficient probabilistic inference. Yet in autoregressive language modeling, PCs still lag behind Transformer-based large language models (LLMs), suggesting an important expressivity gap. In this work, we compare PCs and LLMs under a unified autoregressive formulation. First, an output bottleneck: PCs parameterize predictions as convex combinations in probability space, which struggles to represent the sharp distributions typical of language; adopting a logit-space parameterization substantially narrows this gap. Second, a context-encoding bottleneck: we prove that structured-decomposable PCs can match Transformer separation rank on vtree-aligned partitions, but show, both theoretically and empirically, that this capacity is limited to partitions aligned with the fixed routing structure, leading to severe degradation when the data exhibits heterogeneous dependency topologies. We further prove that decomposable PCs are strictly more expressive than structured-decomposable ones, though effectively optimizing them remains an open challenge.
A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation
We propose a closed-form spectral framework for relative log-density estimation in linearly parameterized probabilistic models, including unnormalized and conditional models. This is achieved by representing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as an integral of weighted chi-squared divergences, converting KL estimation into a family of least-squares problems. We derive an explicit spectral formula based only on first- and second-order feature moments, yielding closed-form estimators of both divergences and log-density potentials for fixed features. The framework extends to a broad class of f-divergences and can be combined with kernelization or feature learning with neural networks. We prove convergence guarantees for the resulting estimators and empirically compare them on synthetic data with optimization-based variational formulations, including logistic and softmax regression for normalized conditional models.
Medical Model Synthesis Architectures: A Case Study
Medicine is rife with high-stakes uncertainty. Doctors routinely make clinical judgments and decisions that juggle many fundamental unknowns, like predictions about what might be causing a patients' symptoms or decisions about what treatment to try next. Despite increasing interest in developing AI systems that aid or even replace doctors in clinical settings, current systems struggle with calibrated reasoning under uncertainty, and are often deeply opaque about their reasoning. We propose a framework for AI systems that can make practically useful but formally transparent clinical predictions under uncertainty. Given a clinical situation, our framework (MedMSA) uses language models to retrieve relevant prior knowledge, but constructs a formal probabilistic model to support calibrated and verifiable inferences under uncertainty. We show how an initial proof-of-concept of this framework can be used for differential diagnosis, producing an uncertainty-weighted list of potential diagnoses that could explain a patients' symptoms, and discuss future applications and directions for applying this framework more generally for safe clinical collaborations.
Weighted Rules under the Stable Model Semantics
We introduce the concept of weighted rules under the stable model semantics following the log-linear models of Markov Logic. This provides versatile methods to overcome the deterministic nature of the stable model semantics, such as resolving inconsistencies in answer set programs, ranking stable models, associating probability to stable models, and applying statistical inference to computing weighted stable models. We also present formal comparisons with related formalisms, such as answer set programs, Markov Logic, ProbLog, and P-log.
Dsat: A Native SAT Solver for Discrete Logic
Discrete variables are common in many applications, such as probabilistic reasoning, planning and explainable AI. When symbolic reasoning techniques are brought in to bear on these applications, a standard technique for handling discrete variables is to binarize them into Boolean variables to allow the use of Boolean computational machinery such as SAT solvers. This technique can face both computational and semantical challenges though. In this work, we develop a native SAT solver for discrete logic, which is a direct extension of Boolean logic in which variables can take arbitrary values. Our proposed solver has a similar design to Boolean SAT solvers, with ingredients such as unit resolution and clause learning but ones that operate natively on discrete variables. We illustrate the merits of the developed SAT solver by comparing it empirically to CSP solvers applied to discrete CNFs, to Boolean SAT solver applied to binarized CNFs, and to some hybrid solvers.
Constant-Target Energy Matching: A Unified Framework for Continuous and Discrete Density Estimation
Density estimation is a central primitive in probabilistic modeling, yet continuous, discrete, and mixed-variable domains are often treated by separate objectives, limiting the ability to exploit a common statistical structure across data types. Continuous score-based methods rely on log-density gradients, while discrete extensions typically use concrete score whose unbounded targets become unstable near low-probability states. We introduce Constant-Target Energy Matching (CTEM), a unified energy-based framework for density estimation on general state spaces. CTEM replaces ordinary density-ratio regression with a bounded energy-difference transform and derives from it a sample-only training objective with the constant target 1. The learned scalar potential recovers log p without partition-function estimation or explicit unbounded ratio regression. Across continuous, discrete, and mixed-variable benchmarks, CTEM substantially improves density estimation over competitive baselines and yields higher-quality samples under standard sampling procedures.
Evaluating Pragmatic Reasoning in Large Language Models: Evidence from Scalar Diversity
Evaluating pragmatic reasoning in large language models (LLMs) remains challenging because model behavior can vary depending on evaluation methods. Previous studies suggest that prompt-based judgments may diverge from models' internal probability distributions, raising questions about whether observed performance reflects underlying competence or task-induced behavior. This study examines this issue using scalar diversity as a graded diagnostic for pragmatic inference. Following Hu & Levy (2023), this study compares direct probability measurement and metalinguistic prompting across multiple models and experimental settings. The results show that neither evaluation method consistently outperforms the other and that pragmatic behavior varies substantially across model families, prompting strategies, and task structures. Moreover, scalar diversity gradients emerge only in specific model-condition combinations, suggesting that pragmatic reasoning in LLMs reflects an interaction between internal probabilistic representations and task-induced prompting behavior rather than a stable competence captured by a single evaluation paradigm. These findings highlight the central role of evaluation design in interpreting pragmatic abilities in LLMs.
Test-Time Personalization: A Diagnostic Framework and Probabilistic Fix for Scaling Failures
Existing approaches to LLM personalization focus on constructing better personalized models or inputs, while treating inference as a single-shot process. In this work, we study Test-Time Personalization (TTP) along an unexplored axis: scaling inference-time computation by sampling N candidates from a personalized policy model and selecting the best with a personalized reward model. We prove that oracle selection yields expected utility growing logarithmically with the number of sampled candidates, establishing a theoretical ceiling for test-time scaling. However, standard reward models fail to realize this potential. To diagnose why, we derive a unified scaling law that decomposes any reward model's Best-of-N curve into four measurable quantities and reveals two failure modes, user-level collapse (near-constant prediction for some users) and query-level reward hacking (negative correlation with true quality for some queries). Guided by this law, we propose a probabilistic personalized reward model whose learned variance effectively mitigates both failure modes. Experiments confirm both elements of our framework: TTP delivers consistent scaling across multiple policy models and personalized text generation tasks, and our scaling law closely matches observed scaling curves across reward-model variants.
Hallucination as an Anomaly: Dynamic Intervention via Probabilistic Circuits
One of the most critical challenges in Large Language Models is their tendency to hallucinate, i.e., produce factually incorrect responses. Existing approaches show promising results in terms of hallucination correction, but still suffer from a main limitation: they apply corrections indiscriminately to every token, corrupting also the originally correct generations. To overcome this drawback, we propose PCNET, a Probabilistic Circuit trained as a tractable density estimator over the LLM residual stream. The method detects hallucinations as geometric anomalies on the factual manifold, which is done via exact Negative Log-Likelihood computation, hence without the need for sampling, external verifiers, or weight modifications, as in existing techniques. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we exploit PCNET as a dynamic gate that distinguishes hallucinated from factual hidden states at each decoding step. This triggers our second main contribution, PC-LDCD (Probabilistic Circuit Latent Density Contrastive Decoding), only when the latent geometry deviates from factual regions, while leaving correct generations untouched. Across four LLMs, ranging from 1B to 8B models, and four benchmarks covering conversational reasoning, knowledge-intensive QA, reading comprehension, and truthfulness, PCNET achieves near-perfect hallucination detection across CoQA, SQuAD v2.0, and TriviaQA, with AUROC reaching up to 99%. Moreover, PC-LDCD obtains the highest True+Info, MC2, and MC3 scores on TruthfulQA in three out of four models, in comparison with state-of-the-art baselines, while reducing the mean corruption rate to 53.7% and achieving a preservation rate of 79.3%. Our proposed method is publicly available on GitHub.
Harmonized Feature Conditioning and Frequency-Prompt Personalization for Multi-Rater Medical Segmentation
Multi-rater medical image segmentation captures the inherent ambiguity of clinical interpretation, where diagnostic boundaries vary across experts and imaging devices. Existing approaches often reduce this diversity to consensus labels or treat rater differences as noise, resulting in overconfident and poorly calibrated models. We propose a harmonized probabilistic framework that disentangles acquisition artifacts from genuine annotator variability through adaptive feature conditioning and frequency-domain personalization. A lightweight Harmonizer Network implicitly models scanner-specific artifacts and performs dynamic feature modulation to standardize latent representations, ensuring that uncertainty reflects anatomy rather than noise. To represent rater-specific styles, we introduce a novel High-Frequency Prompt Modules that operate in the spectral domain to encode annotator-dependent boundary precision and textural sensitivity. These prompts adaptively modulate harmonized features to produce personalized yet anatomically consistent segmentations. Furthermore, a Generalized Energy Distance based regularization aligns the generative distribution with empirical annotation variability, promoting diversity where experts disagree and consensus where they converge. Experiments on LIDC-IDRI and NPC-170 show SOTA aggregated and individualized segmentation, with notable GED reductions and improved Dice scores, especially on noisy cases. Beyond accuracy, the model exhibits clinically meaningful uncertainty. Confidence rises in agreement regions and declines in ambiguous areas, supporting its use as a reliable and interpretable tool for multi-expert clinical workflows.
Evidence-based anomaly detection in clinical domains
Anomaly detection methods can be very useful in identifying interesting or concerning events. In this work, we develop and examine new probabilistic anomaly detection methods that let us evaluate management decisions for a specific patient and identify those decisions that are highly unusual with respect to patients with the same or similar condition. The statistics used in this detection are derived from probabilistic models such as Bayesian networks that are learned from a database of past patient cases. We apply our methods to the problem of identifying unusual patient-management decisions in post-surgical cardiac patients.
Temporal Reasoning Is Not the Bottleneck: A Probabilistic Inconsistency Framework for Neuro-Symbolic QA
Despite significant advances, large language models (LLMs) continue to exhibit brittle performance on complex temporal reasoning tasks. This failure mode is widely attributed to inherent deficits in autoregressive logical deduction. In this paper, we challenge this prevailing narrative, demonstrating that temporal reasoning is not the fundamental bottleneck; rather, the locus of failure lies in unstructured text-to-event representation. We introduce a novel neuro-symbolic question-answering framework governed by a Probabilistic Inconsistency Signal (PIS) that explicitly isolates perceptual errors from reasoning failures. By lifting unstructured text into explicit event graphs and interval constraints, our architecture strictly decouples semantic extraction from a symbolic reasoning engine. To robustly detect structural breaks, the PIS elegantly unifies symbolic credal intervals with epistemic neural uncertainty extracted via Evidential Deep Learning on LLM hidden states. Empirical evaluations reveal a striking paradigm shift: when provided with correct structural representations, our system's explicit proof traces achieve perfect 1.0 accuracy (4000/4000) and strictly zero false positives/negatives on temporal arithmetic benchmarks. On broader, noise-injected QA settings, the framework maintains a competitive 75.1% accuracy while enabling deterministic, step-level failure localization. Ultimately, by isolating the representation bottleneck from the reasoning substrate, this work reframes temporal QA from an algorithmic reasoning challenge to a structural alignment problem, charting a verifiable path forward for reliable neuro-symbolic AI.
First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint
Probabilistic values, including Shapley values and semivalues, provide a model-agnostic framework to attribute the behavior of a black-box model to data points or features, with a wide range of applications including explainable artificial intelligence and data valuation. However, their exact computation requires utility evaluations over exponentially many coalitions, making Monte Carlo approximation essential in modern machine learning applications. Existing estimators are often developed through different representation strategies, including weighted averages, self-normalized weighting, regression adjustment, and weighted least squares. Our key observation is that these seemingly distinct constructions share a common first-order expansion, in which the leading term is determined by the sampling law and a working surrogate function. This first-order representation yields an explicit expression for the leading mean squared error (MSE), which characterizes how the sampling law and the surrogate jointly determine statistical efficiency. Guided by this criterion, we propose an Efficiency-Aware Surrogate-adjusted Estimator (EASE) that directly chooses the sampling law and surrogate to minimize the first-order MSE. We demonstrate that EASE consistently outperforms existing estimators for various probabilistic values.
Evidence-Based Landing Site Selection and Vison-Based Landing for UAVs in Unstructured Environments
Autonomous landing in cluttered or unstructured environments remains a safety-critical challenge for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), particularly under noisy perception caused by sensor uncertainty and platform-induced disturbances such as vibration. This paper presents an evidence-based probabilistic framework for autonomous UAV landing that explicitly separates decision-making under uncertainty from execution via visual servoing. Landing safety is modeled as a latent variable and inferred through recursive accumulation of frame-wise visual likelihoods derived from flatness, slope, and obstacle cues, yielding a temporally consistent belief map that is robust to transient perception errors. Physical feasibility is enforced through a hard geometric constraint based on the minimum required landing radius of the UAV, ensuring that undersized but visually appealing regions are rejected. The final landing site is selected using constrained maximum a posteriori estimation. Once selected, the UAV locks onto the target region using ORB feature tracking and performs precise alignment and descent via image-based visual servoing (IBVS). The proposed approach is validated through both real-world laboratory experiments and high-fidelity simulations in Nvidia Isaac Sim, demonstrating consistent, cautious, and stable landing behavior across domains.
A Review of the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve and a Proof About the Area Beneath It
The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of a binary classifier has often been utilized to measure the performance of the classifier. The area beneath this curve is used in particular because of its quoted probabilistic interpretation as being equal to the probability that the classifier will rank a random positive observation above a random negative observation. This paper formalizes this claim, produces a bound on how far away from the truth it is if a hypothesis is not met, and gives a small literature review of the ROC curve.
Probabilistic Circuits for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Joint probabilistic modeling is essential for forecasting irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) to accurately quantify uncertainty. Existing approaches often struggle to balance model expressivity with consistent marginalization, frequently leading to unreliable or contradictory forecasts. To address this, we propose CircuITS, a novel architecture for probabilistic IMTS forecasting based on probabilistic circuits. Our model is flexible in capturing intricate dependencies between time series channels while structurally guaranteeing valid joint distributions. Experiments on four real world datasets demonstrate that CircuITS achieves superior joint and marginal density estimation compared to state of the art baselines.
Scaling Probabilistic Transformer via Efficient Cross-Scale Hyperparameter Transfer
Probabilistic Transformer (PT), a white-box probabilistic model for contextual word representation, has demonstrated substantial similarity to standard Transformers in both computational structure and downstream task performance on small models and small to medium sized datasets. However, PT is less robust to hyperparameter choices than standard Transformers, making it harder to scale efficiently. In this work, we follow Maximal Update Parametrization (muP) to rescale PT's parameters, so that hyperparameters optimized on small models can be transferred to larger models without additional tuning. With this approach, we successfully scale PT to models with up to 0.4B parameters. Experiments show that PT consistently outperforms standard transformer under the same parameter budget on Masked Language Modeling (MLM) tasks. We hope this work will contribute to the practical deployment of probabilistic models at substantially larger scales in the future.
RCProb: Probabilistic rule extraction from classification tree ensembles
Tree ensembles provide strong classification performance but usually behave as black-box models. Post-hoc interpretability techniques such as RuleCOSI+ extract a small ruleset that approximates the ensemble, but this simplification can leave the probabilities attached to the extracted rules unreliable. In particular, RuleCOSI+ assigns empirical class probabilities to the extracted rules and repeatedly uses those rule statistics during its greedy combination and simplification procedure. We present RCProb, a probabilistic extension that uses smoothed atomic class-conditional evidence for the expensive search stages and a support-adaptive mixture with an ensemble-informed m-estimate for the final rule probabilities. The method is evaluated on 18 binary and 5 multiclass datasets using random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) ensembles. Relative to RuleCOSI+, the median paired log-loss reduction is 71.9% for RF and 62.5% for GBM, with both differences remaining significant after Holm correction. The number of rules decreases by 38.7% for RF and 38.5% for GBM, while the primary tests do not detect a macro-F1 difference. Confidence-ECE also decreases for both ensembles, with statistical support for RF after correction. A separate controlled experiment with dedicated calibration data shows that native RCProb probabilities are competitive with RuleCOSI+ followed by temperature scaling, although additional post-hoc calibration can still improve RCProb. The results show that probability estimation is an important part of rule extraction and not only a post-processing step.
A Probabilistic Framework for Hierarchical Goal Recognition
Goal recognition aims to infer an agent's goal from observations of its behaviour. In realistic settings, recognition can benefit from exploiting hierarchical task structure and reasoning under uncertainty. Planning-based goal recognition has made substantial progress over the past decade, but to the best of our knowledge no existing approach jointly integrates hierarchical task structure with probabilistic inference. In this paper, we introduce the first planning-based probabilistic framework for hierarchical goal recognition over Hierarchical Task Networks (HTNs). We instantiate the framework by exploiting an HTN planner with a three-stage generative model for likelihood estimation, yielding posterior distributions over goal hypotheses. Empirical results show improved recognition performance over the existing HTN-based recognizer on HTN benchmarks. Overall, the framework lays a foundation for probabilistic goal recognition grounded in hierarchical planning structure, moving goal recognition toward more practical settings.
Probabilistic Verification of Neural Networks via Efficient Probabilistic Hull Generation
The problem of probabilistic verification of a neural network investigates the probability of satisfying the safe constraints in the output space when the input is given by a probability distribution. It is significant to answer this problem when the input is affected by disturbances often modeled by probabilistic variables. In the paper, we propose a novel neural network probabilistic verification framework which computes a guaranteed range for the safe probability by efficiently finding safe and unsafe probabilistic hulls. Our approach consists of three main innovations: (1) a state space subdivision strategy using regression trees to produce probabilistic hulls, (2) a boundary-aware sampling method which identifies the safety boundary in the input space using samples that are later used for building regression trees, and (3) iterative refinement with probabilistic prioritization for computing a guaranteed range for the safe probability. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are evaluated on various benchmarks including ACAS Xu and a rocket lander controller. The result shows an obvious advantage over the state of the art.
A Probabilistic Framework for Improving Dense Object Detection in Underwater Image Data via Annealing-Based Data Augmentation
Object detection models typically perform well on images captured in controlled environments with stable lighting, water clarity, and viewpoint, but their performance degrades substantially in real-world underwater settings characterized by high variability and frequent occlusions. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing a novel data augmentation framework designed to improve robustness in dense and unconstrained underwater scenes. Using the DeepFish dataset, which contains images of fish in natural environments, we first generate bounding box annotations from provided segmentation masks to construct a custom detection dataset. We then propose a pseudo-simulated annealing-based augmentation algorithm, inspired by the copy-paste strategy of Deng et al. [1], to synthesize realistic crowded fish scenarios. Our approach improves spatial diversity and object density during training, enabling better generalization to complex scenes. Experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms a baseline YOLOv10 model, particularly on a challenging test set of manually annotated images collected from live-stream footage in the Florida Keys. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our augmentation strategy for improving detection performance in dense, real-world underwater environments.
On Bayesian Softmax-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Models
Mixture-of-experts models provide a flexible framework for learning complex probabilistic input-output relationships by combining multiple expert models through an input-dependent gating mechanism. These models have become increasingly prominent in modern machine learning, yet their theoretical properties in the Bayesian framework remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we study Bayesian mixture-of-experts models, focusing on the ubiquitous softmax-based gating mechanism. Specifically, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution for three fundamental statistical tasks: density estimation, parameter estimation, and model selection. First, we establish posterior contraction rates for density estimation, both in the regimes with a fixed, known number of experts and with a random learnable number of experts. We then analyze parameter estimation and derive convergence guarantees based on tailored Voronoi-type losses, which account for the complex identifiability structure of mixture-of-experts models. Finally, we propose and analyze two complementary strategies for selecting the number of experts. Taken together, these results provide one of the first systematic theoretical analyses of Bayesian mixture-of-experts models with softmax gating, and yield several theory-grounded insights for practical model design.
To Intervene or Not: Guiding Inference-time Alignment with Probabilistic Model Blending
The wide deployment of LLMs has made model alignment necessary to make newly trained models safely and effectively respond to user instructions. Among different methods, inference-time alignment is often cheaper as it intervenes (i.e., offers guidances) only during output generation. Existing proposals apply guidances extracted from certain aligned models without properly assessing their reliability. Nonetheless, our systematic evaluation reveals that guidance effectiveness varies drastically across models; since ineffective guidances lead to further confusion and thus further interventions, the resulting excessive interventions typically indicate poor performance. To make interventions more effective and thus more efficient, we introduce BlendIn, an inference-time alignment framework that shifts from binary decisions to creating hybrid distributions integrating both models' knowledge. BlendIn stabilizes inference-time alignment by performing quality-aware alignment and proportionally weighting each model's contribution based on reliability. Compared with existing works, it preserves beneficial guidance while downweighting unreliable suggestions. BlendIn provides both diagnostic signals and mitigation strategies for misaligned guidance, achieving consistent and up to 50% performance improvement on challenging model pairs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/DecayingSeart/BlendIn.
Separating Geometry from Probability in the Analysis of Generalization
The goal of machine learning is to find models that minimize prediction error on data that has not yet been seen. Its operational paradigm assumes access to a dataset and articulates a scheme for evaluating how well a given model performs on an arbitrary sample. The sample can be (in which case we speak of
in-sample'' performance) or some entirely new $S'$ (in which case we speak of out-of-sample'' performance). Traditional analysis of generalization assumes that both in- and out-of-sample data are i.i.d.\ draws from an infinite population. However, these probabilistic assumptions cannot be verified even in principle. This paper presents an alternative view of generalization through the lens of sensitivity analysis of solutions of optimization problems to perturbations in the problem data. Under this framework, generalization bounds are obtained by purely deterministic means and take the form of variational principles that relate in-sample and out-of-sample evaluations through an error term that quantifies how close out-of-sample data are to in-sample data. Statistical assumptions can then be used \textit{ex post} to characterize the situations when this error term is small (either on average or with high probability).Beyond Indistinguishability: Measuring Extraction Risk in LLM APIs
Indistinguishability properties such as differential privacy bounds or low empirically measured membership inference are widely treated as proxies to show a model is sufficiently protected against broader memorization risks. However, we show that indistinguishability properties are neither sufficient nor necessary for preventing data extraction in LLM APIs. We formalize a privacy-game separation between extraction and indistinguishability-based privacy, showing that indistinguishability and inextractability are incomparable: upper-bounding distinguishability does not upper-bound extractability. To address this gap, we introduce -inextractability as a definition that requires at least expected queries for any black-box adversary to induce the LLM API to emit a protected -gram substring. We instantiate this via a worst-case extraction game and derive a rank-based extraction risk upper bound for targeted exact extraction, as well as extensions to cover untargeted and approximate extraction. The resulting estimator captures the extraction risk over multiple attack trials and prefix adaptations. We show that it can provide a tight and efficient estimation for standard greedy extraction and an upper bound on the probabilistic extraction risk given any decoding configuration. We empirically evaluate extractability across different models, clarifying its connection to distinguishability, demonstrating its advantage over existing extraction risk estimators, and providing actionable mitigation guidelines across model training, API access, and decoding configurations in LLM API deployment. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Emory-AIMS/Inextractability.
From Craft to Kernel: A Governance-First Execution Architecture and Semantic ISA for Agentic Computers
The transition of agentic AI from brittle prototypes to production systems is stalled by a pervasive crisis of craft. We suggest that the prevailing orchestration paradigm-delegating the system control loop to large language models and merely patching with heuristic guardrails-is the root cause of this fragility. Instead, we propose Arbiter-K, a Governance-First execution architecture that reconceptualizes the underlying model as a Probabilistic Processing Unit encapsulated by a deterministic, neuro-symbolic kernel. Arbiter-K implements a Semantic Instruction Set Architecture (ISA) to reify probabilistic messages into discrete instructions. This allows the kernel to maintain a Security Context Registry and construct an Instruction Dependency Graph at runtime, enabling active taint propagation based on the data-flow pedigree of each reasoning node. By leveraging this mechanism, Arbiter-K precisely interdicts unsafe trajectories at deterministic sinks (e.g., high-risk tool calls or unauthorized network egress) and enables autonomous execution correction and architectural rollback when security policies are triggered. Evaluations on OpenClaw and NanoBot demonstrate that Arbiter-K enforces security as a microarchitectural property, achieving 76% to 95% unsafe interception for a 92.79% absolute gain over native policies. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/cure-lab/ArbiterOS.
Local Inconsistency Resolution: The Interplay between Attention and Control in Probabilistic Models
We present a generic algorithm for learning and approximate inference with an intuitive epistemic interpretation: iteratively focus on a subset of the model and resolve inconsistencies using the parameters under control. This framework, which we call Local Inconsistency Resolution (LIR) is built upon Probabilistic Dependency Graphs (PDGs), which provide a flexible representational foundation capable of capturing inconsistent beliefs. We show how LIR unifies and generalizes a wide variety of important algorithms in the literature, including the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, belief propagation, adversarial training, GANs, and GFlowNets. In the last case, LIR actually suggests a more natural loss, which we demonstrate improves GFlowNet convergence. Each method can be recovered as a specific instance of LIR by choosing a procedure to direct focus (attention and control). We implement this algorithm for discrete PDGs and study its properties on synthetically generated PDGs, comparing its behavior to the global optimization semantics of the full PDG.
Preference Estimation via Opponent Modeling in Multi-Agent Negotiation
Automated negotiation in complex, multi-party and multi-issue settings critically depends on accurate opponent modeling. However, conventional numerical-only approaches fail to capture the qualitative information embedded in natural language interactions, resulting in unstable and incomplete preference estimation. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) enable rich semantic understanding of utterances, it remains challenging to quantitatively incorporate such information into a consistent opponent modeling. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel preference estimation method integrating natural language information into a structured Bayesian opponent modeling framework. Our approach leverages LLMs to extract qualitative cues from utterances and converts them into probabilistic formats for dynamic belief tracking. Experimental results on a multi-party benchmark demonstrate that our framework improves the full agreement rate and preference estimation accuracy by integrating probabilistic reasoning with natural language understanding.
Rethinking Gaussian Trajectory Predictors: Calibrated Uncertainty for Safe Planning
Accurate trajectory prediction is critical for safe autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While many trajectory predictors output Gaussian distributions to represent the multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian positions, the reliability of their confidence levels often remains unaddressed. This limitation can lead to unsafe or overly conservative motion planning when the predictor is integrated with an uncertainty-aware planner. Existing Gaussian trajectory predictors primarily rely on the Negative Log-Likelihood loss, which is prone to predict over- or under-confident distributions, and may compromise downstream planner safety. This paper introduces a novel loss function for calibrating prediction uncertainty which leverages Kernel Density Estimation to estimate the empirical distribution of confidence levels. The proposed formulation enforces consistency with the properties of a Gaussian assumption by explicitly matching the estimated empirical distribution to the Chi-squared distribution. To ensure accurate mean prediction, a Mean Squared Error term is also incorporated in the final loss formulation. Experimental results on real-world trajectory datasets show that our method significantly improves the reliability of confidence levels predicted by different State-Of-The-Art Gaussian trajectory predictors. We also demonstrate the importance of providing planners with reliable probabilistic insights (i.e. calibrated confidence levels) for collision-free navigation in complex scenarios. For this purpose, we integrate Gaussian trajectory predictors trained with our loss function with an uncertainty-aware Model Predictive Control on scenarios extracted from real-world datasets, achieving improved planning performance through calibrated confidence levels.
A Probabilistic Framework for LLM-Based Model Discovery
Automated methods for discovering mechanistic simulator models from observational data offer a promising path toward accelerating scientific progress. Such methods often take the form of agentic-style iterative workflows that repeatedly propose and revise candidate models by imitating human discovery processes. However, existing LLM-based approaches typically implement such workflows via hand-crafted heuristic procedures, without an explicit probabilistic formulation. We recast model discovery as probabilistic inference, i.e., as sampling from an unknown distribution over mechanistic models capable of explaining the data. This perspective provides a unified way to reason about model proposal, refinement, and selection within a single inference framework. As a concrete instantiation of this view, we introduce ModelSMC, an algorithm based on Sequential Monte Carlo sampling. ModelSMC represents candidate models as particles which are iteratively proposed and refined by an LLM, and weighted using likelihood-based criteria. Experiments on real-world scientific systems illustrate that this formulation discovers models with interpretable mechanisms and improves posterior predictive checks. More broadly, this perspective provides a probabilistic lens for understanding and developing LLM-based approaches to model discovery.
A Probabilistic Approach to Trajectory-Based Optimal Experimental Design
We present a novel probabilistic approach for optimal experimental path design. In this approach a discrete path optimization problem is defined on a static navigation mesh, and trajectories are modeled as random variables governed by a parametric Markov policy. The discrete path optimization problem is then replaced with an equivalent stochastic optimization problem over the policy parameters, resulting in an optimal probability model that samples estimates of the optimal discrete path. This approach enables exploration of the utility function's distribution tail and treats the utility function of the design as a black box, making it applicable to linear and nonlinear inverse problems and beyond experimental design. Numerical verification and analysis are carried out by using a parameter identification problem widely used in model-based optimal experimental design, namely a two-dimensional time-dependent advection diffusion problem in which the initial condition is the inference target. Experiments use both coarse and fine navigation meshes, with either a single moving sensor or a group of seven coordinated sensors, and the proposed approach is evaluated under D-, A-, and E-optimality criteria.
Posterior-driven Heuristic Support Adaptation in a Probabilistic Treatment of Real2Sim2Real for Vision-Driven Deformable Linear Object Manipulation
Likelihood-free inference (LFI) enables system identification in complex tasks via black-box modelling, abstracting nonlinearity and stochasticity, and infers a domain distribution for adapting agents to parametric deployment conditions. LFI assumes an arbitrary support for sampling, which remains fixed as the initial generic prior is refined to increasingly descriptive posteriors. Misspecified support can therefore yield suboptimal yet overconfident posteriors. We address this issue by using the posterior of an inference step to guide the adaptation of the support using three illustrative heuristics: EDGE, MODE, and CENTRE. Each heuristic interprets the updated belief and enables support adaptation alongside posterior inference. For illustrative purposes, we first study misspecified support in LFI and evaluate the utility of our heuristics using stochastic dynamical benchmarks. We then evaluate posterior-driven heuristic support adaptation for parameter inference and policy learning in a dynamic deformable linear object (DLO) manipulation task. Inference results in a finer length and stiffness classification for a parametric set of DLOs. When the resulting posteriors are used as domain distributions for sim-based policy learning, they lead to more robust object-centric agent performance.
RLIE: Rule Generation with Logistic Regression, Iterative Refinement, and Evaluation for Large Language Models
Large Language Models (LLMs) can propose rules in natural language, sidestepping the need for a predefined predicate space in traditional rule learning. Yet many LLM-based approaches ignore interactions among rules, and the opportunity to couple LLMs with probabilistic rule learning for robust inference remains underexplored. We present RLIE, a unified framework that integrates LLMs with probabilistic modeling to learn a set of weighted rules. RLIE has four stages: (1) Rule generation, where an LLM proposes and filters candidates; (2) Logistic regression, which learns probabilistic weights for global selection and calibration; (3) Iterative refinement, which updates the rule set using prediction errors; and (4) Evaluation, which compares the weighted rule set as a direct classifier with methods that inject rules into an LLM. We evaluate multiple inference strategies on real-world datasets. Applying rules directly with their learned weights yields superior performance, whereas prompting LLMs with the rules, weights, and logistic-model outputs surprisingly degrades accuracy. This supports the view that LLMs excel at semantic generation and interpretation but are less reliable for precise probabilistic integration. RLIE clarifies the potential and limitations of LLMs for inductive reasoning and couples them with classic probabilistic rule combination methods to enable more reliable neuro-symbolic reasoning.
Sequential Cohort Selection under Uncertainty
We study the problem of fair cohort selection under uncertainty, motivated by university admissions where applicant outcomes are only partially observed. We consider both a one-shot setting, where a fixed policy is applied to a population, and a sequential setting, where policies are updated over time using data from previous admission years. We propose a policy optimization framework that combines probabilistic modeling of outcomes with policy gradient methods, supporting both logistic and neural network policies. In the sequential setting, the approach jointly updates the policy and the underlying models to adapt to evolving applicant populations. Experiments on a simulator grounded in real admission data show that adaptive policies substantially outperform static baselines in term of expected utility, especially under higher admission costs. Neural policies consistently achieve higher utility and adapt more effectively than simpler models, while maintaining favorable fairness properties over time. Our results demonstrate the importance of adaptivity and model expressiveness for decision-making under uncertainty.
Probabilistic Approach to Black-Box Binary Optimization with Budget Constraints: Application to Sensor Placement
This paper presents a fully probabilistic approach for solving optimal experimental design problems under budget constraints. The experimental design is viewed as a random variable and is associated with a parametric conditional distribution that inherently models the budget constraints. The original optimization problem is replaced with an optimization over the expected value of the original objective, which is then optimized over the distribution parameters. The resulting optimal parameter (policy) is used to sample the feasible region of binary space to produce estimates of the optimal solution(s) of the original optimization problem. In this work we extend the family of conditional Bernoulli models to model the random variable conditioned by the total number of nonzero entries, that is, the budget constraint. This approach (a) is generally applicable to binary optimization problems with nonstochastic black-box objective functions and budget constraints; (b) employs conditional probabilities to model and sample only the feasible region and thus considerably reduces the computational cost compared with employing soft constraints; and (c) does not employ soft constraints and thus does not require tuning of a regularization parameter, for example to promote sparsity, which is generally challenging. The proposed approach is verified numerically using an optimal sensor placement experiment based on an advection-diffusion forward model in a parameter identification setup.
A Probabilistic Approach for Model Alignment with Human Comparisons
A growing trend involves integrating human knowledge into learning frameworks, leveraging subtle human feedback to refine AI models. While these approaches have shown promising results in practice, the theoretical understanding of when and why such approaches are effective remains limited. This work takes steps toward developing a theoretical framework for analyzing the conditions under which human comparisons can enhance the traditional supervised learning process. Specifically, this paper studies the effective use of noisy-labeled data and human comparison data to address challenges arising from noisy environment and high-dimensional models. We propose a two-stage "Supervised Learning+Learning from Human Feedback" (SL+LHF) framework that connects machine learning with human feedback through a probabilistic bisection approach. The two-stage framework first learns low-dimensional representations from noisy-labeled data via an SL procedure and then uses human comparisons to improve the model alignment. To examine the efficacy of the alignment phase, we introduce a concept, termed the "label-noise-to-comparison-accuracy" (LNCA) ratio. This paper identifies from a theoretical perspective the conditions under which the "SL+LHF" framework outperforms the pure SL approach; we then leverage this LNCA ratio to highlight the advantage of incorporating human evaluators in reducing sample complexity. We validate the framework on a real high-dimensional crowdfunding-prediction task: under a fixed query budget, trading labels for comparisons improves accuracy precisely when labels are scarce, and the findings hold when the evaluator is replaced by real large language models. A study conducted via Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) further validates the model primitives.
Building Expressive and Tractable Probabilistic Generative Models: A Review
We present a comprehensive survey of the advancements and techniques in the field of tractable probabilistic generative modeling, primarily focusing on Probabilistic Circuits (PCs). We provide a unified perspective on the inherent trade-offs between expressivity and tractability, highlighting the design principles and algorithmic extensions that have enabled building expressive and efficient PCs, and provide a taxonomy of the field. We also discuss recent efforts to build deep and hybrid PCs by fusing notions from deep neural models, and outline the challenges and open questions that can guide future research in this evolving field.
Probabilistic Truly Unordered Rule Sets
Rule set learning has recently been frequently revisited because of its interpretability. Existing methods have several shortcomings though. First, most existing methods impose orders among rules, either explicitly or implicitly, which makes the models less comprehensible. Second, due to the difficulty of handling conflicts caused by overlaps (i.e., instances covered by multiple rules), existing methods often do not consider probabilistic rules. Third, learning classification rules for multi-class target is understudied, as most existing methods focus on binary classification or multi-class classification via the
one-versus-rest" approach. To address these shortcomings, we propose TURS, for Truly Unordered Rule Sets. To resolve conflicts caused by overlapping rules, we propose a novel model that exploits the probabilistic properties of our rule sets, with the intuition of only allowing rules to overlap if they have similar probabilistic outputs. We next formalize the problem of learning a TURS model based on the MDL principle and develop a carefully designed heuristic algorithm. We benchmark against a wide range of rule-based methods and demonstrate that our method learns rule sets that have lower model complexity and highly competitive predictive performance. In addition, we empirically show that rules in our model are empirically independent" and hence truly unordered.Limits of Transfer Learning
Transfer learning involves taking information and insight from one problem domain and applying it to a new problem domain. Although widely used in practice, theory for transfer learning remains less well-developed. To address this, we prove several novel results related to transfer learning, showing the need to carefully select which sets of information to transfer and the need for dependence between transferred information and target problems. Furthermore, we prove how the degree of probabilistic change in an algorithm using transfer learning places an upper bound on the amount of improvement possible. These results build on the algorithmic search framework for machine learning, allowing the results to apply to a wide range of learning problems using transfer.
Fast Convergence for High-Order ODE Solvers in Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Diffusion probabilistic models generate samples by learning to reverse a noise-injection process that transforms data into noise. A key development is the reformulation of the reverse sampling process as a deterministic probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE), which allows for efficient sampling using high-order numerical solvers. Unlike traditional time integrator analysis, the accuracy of this sampling procedure depends not only on numerical integration errors but also on the approximation quality and regularity of the learned score function, as well as their interaction. In this work, we present a rigorous convergence analysis of deterministic samplers derived from probability flow ODEs for general forward processes with arbitrary variance schedules. Specifically, we develop and analyze -th order (exponential) Runge-Kutta schemes, under the practical assumption that the first and second derivatives of the learned score function are bounded. We prove that the total variation distance between the generated and target distributions can be bounded as \begin{align*} O\bigl(d^{\frac{7}{4}}\varepsilon_{\text{score}}^{\frac{1}{2}} +d(dH_{\max})^p\bigr), \end{align*} where denotes the error in the score function approximation, is the data dimension, and represents the maximum solver step size. Numerical experiments on benchmark datasets further confirm that the derivatives of the learned score function are bounded in practice.