Covariance Estimation

Deep learning is increasingly viewed as a dynamical process in parameter space, yet many existing theories still treat training as a closed optimization system. This view is limited for real-world AI, where models operate under uncertainty, resource constraints, distribution shift, downstream decision risks, and human feedback. We propose Human-Centered Learning Mechanics (HCLM), a dynamical and information-theoretic framework for open and controlled learning systems. The central idea is that entropy regularization is useful only when the chosen entropy surrogate generates a non-degenerate information force along the optimization trajectory. Otherwise, entropy terms may produce weak, unstable, or misaligned gradients, causing the dynamics to collapse toward ordinary loss minimization. We introduce the notion of effective entropy and study tractable geometric entropy surrogates, including variance-based and log-determinant covariance proxies. The paper makes three contributions. First, it formalizes entropy regularization through effective information force and characterizes degenerate entropy regimes. Second, it derives convergence, entropy-flow, Wasserstein-gradient-flow, and noisy-representation generalization results under explicit assumptions. Third, it offers a conditional dynamical interpretation of scaling-law-like behavior as a balance between information injection, entropy dissipation, and residual risk, without claiming an unconditional derivation of empirical neural scaling laws. Controlled representation-learning experiments support the hypothesis that geometric entropy surrogates, especially log-determinant covariance entropy, induce stronger and more stable information forces than softmax-normalized entropy.

Robustness, domain adaptation, photometric/occlusion invariance, sensor drift, and alignment style are treated as separate literatures with separate method families. Under label-preserving deployment shift they share one geometric object: the covariance Sigma_task = Cov_{Q_n}(n) of ways inputs can change without changing the label. CORAL, adversarial training, augmentation, metric learning, Jacobian penalties, and alignment constraints are not independent tricks--they are estimators of Sigma_task. Fix that object and the Jacobian penalty is pinned by a matrix Sigma' whose range must cover range(Sigma_task)--the matching principle. We prove optimality in a linear-Gaussian model (Thm. A), necessity of range coverage for any quadratic penalty that zeros deployment drift (Thm. G), and the same dichotomy at global minima (Thm. A_global). Wrong-direction/signal-aligned controls (Lemma C; Cor. E/E) and seven estimators (Lemmas D1--D7), plus label-free TDI, yield a falsifiable recipe when Sigma_task must be learned. Thirteen blocks (ML through Qwen2.5-7B) test matched vs isotropic vs wrong-direction penalties on geometry and deployment drift. Twelve match theory where identifiability holds; Office-31 is a named eigengap failure. Partial passes: geometry can improve without every headline task metric moving. A pilot 7B DPO run (one epoch, 240 pairs): matched style-PMH preserves Style TDI where standard DPO degrades it. We do not claim standard training reaches global minima (assumption (O) is open), that estimated Sigma_task is always identifiable, or dominance on every leaderboard. We claim a falsifiable design recipe: estimate Sigma_task, match Sigma', run the controls, report task and geometry separately.

A central error measure in Gaussian DDPMs is the path-space KL divergence between the exact reverse chain and the learned Gaussian reverse process. This quantity is especially relevant for procedures such as classifier guidance, which perturb the entire reverse trajectory rather than only the terminal sample. Prior analyses show that standard isotropic reverse covariances suffer an unavoidable $Ω(1/T)$ path-KL error as the number of denoising steps $T$ grows. We show that matching the full posterior covariance breaks this barrier, yielding an order-wise improvement that reduces the path KL to $O(1/T^2)$. To make full covariance matching practical, we introduce the Lanczos Gaussian sampler (LGS), a training-free, matrix-free method for sampling from the optimal reverse covariance using only covariance-vector products, which are available through Jacobian-vector products of the posterior mean. LGS avoids dense covariance storage and auxiliary covariance models. We prove that LGS approximation error decays exponentially in the number of Lanczos steps, where each Lanczos step requires a single Jacobian-vector product. Empirically, using only just three such steps improves sample quality over strong diagonal-covariance baselines, including OCM-DDPM, across standard image benchmarks. This identifies full covariance matching as both theoretically valuable and practically accessible for fast DDPM sampling.

Distributed principal component analysis (PCA) produces node-level estimates of both a mean vector and a principal subspace. Robustly aggregating these heterogeneous objects requires a relative scale between mean error and subspace error. We study a scale-calibrated median-of-means estimator for this problem using the product geometry of Euclidean space and the Grassmann manifold. A node-level PCA expansion shows that the mean component has the usual linear influence, whereas the subspace component is an eigengap-weighted covariance perturbation. We prove a local reduction showing that the proposed product-manifold median-of-means estimator is asymptotically equivalent to a scaled spatial median of node influence errors. This yields fixed-node non-Gaussian limits, growing-node Gaussian limits with finite-block bias, and an explicit scale-dependent covariance formula. We propose robust block-scale and inference-optimal calibration rules, establish high-probability median-of-means bounds, characterize factorwise bad-node influence, and prove node-bootstrap validity. Simulations and large-scale single-cell RNA-seq data show that scale calibration adapts to eigengap-driven subspace uncertainty and provides a robust distributed PCA summary.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in dynamic environments face telemetry outages, structural vibrations, and regime-dependent noise that invalidate the stationary covariance assumptions of classical Kalman filters. The Sage-Husa Kalman Filter (SHKF) estimates noise statistics online, but its reliance on a static, scalar forgetting factor forces a strict compromise between steady-state stability and transient responsiveness. We introduce the N-Deep Recurrent Sage-Husa Filter (NDR-SHKF), which replaces this scalar parameter with a vector-valued memory attenuation policy learned by a hierarchical recurrent network operating on whitened innovation sequences. A bifurcated architecture routes shallow recurrent states to capture instantaneous sensor anomalies and deep states to encode sustained dynamic trends, while an auxiliary reconstruction objective prevents feature collapse. The complete filter, including recursive covariance updates, is trained end-to-end via backpropagation through time to directly minimize state estimation error. Evaluations on topologically distinct chaotic attractors demonstrate cross-domain generalization, outperforming purely data-driven baselines that diverge under out-of-distribution dynamics. Furthermore, evaluations on recorded real-world UAV flight datasets validate the framework's practical viability, demonstrating its capacity to bridge transitions into proprioceptive dead reckoning and outperform classical adaptive estimators during sensor outages.

Self-distillation has emerged as a promising technique for improving model performance in modern machine learning systems. We develop the statistical foundations of self-distillation in spiked covariance models, by introducing and analyzing a broad class of estimators, namely spectral shrinkage estimators. We establish that for spiked covariance matrices with $s$ spikes, $s$-step self-distillation achieves optimal performance among spectral shrinkage estimators, outperforming well-known estimators in statistics and machine learning. Moreover, we show that $s$ steps are necessary for optimality: any $(s-k)$-step distilled estimator is strictly suboptimal for $1 \leq k \leq s$. For the special subclass of isotropic covariances, we show that optimally tuned Ridge regression performs best among spectral shrinkage estimators. We also study a federated approach where multiple data centers share spectral shrinkage estimators and a common server seeks to aggregate them to achieve optimal performance. In this case, we find that the best local rule again takes the form of self-distillation, though it differs from the optimal rule when data are hosted centrally on a single server. Together, our results elucidate why self-distillation improves predictive performance and provide a broader statistical framework connecting it with classical shrinkage-based methods.

INT2 KV-cache quantization is attractive for long-context LLM serving, but it remains difficult to make both accurate and deployable. Simple rotations such as Hadamard transforms reduce outliers, but still degrade at INT2 because they are not aligned with downstream attention. We propose OSCAR, an Ultra-low-bit KV Cache quantization method that estimates attention-aware covariance structures offline and uses them to derive fixed rotations and clipping thresholds for quantization. In this way, it aligns KV quantization with the covariance structures that attention actually consumes. More importantly, we not only provide theoretical justification but also develop a fully deployable OSCAR system with a custom INT2 attention kernel that remains compatible with paged KV-cache serving and fused kernel pipelines, enabling seamless integration into modern LLM serving frameworks such as SGLang and vLLM. We evaluate our methods on recent reasoning models with reasoning traces of up to 32k tokens across 5 tasks. On Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507 and Qwen3-8B, OSCAR reduces the BF16 accuracy gap to 3.78 and 1.42 points, respectively, while naive rotation INT2 collapses to nearly zero. We further scale OSCAR to Qwen3-32B and GLM-4.7 (358B params), where it remains effectively on par with BF16. On long context - RULER-NIAH up to 128K, OSCAR remains robust on both Qwen3 models, while naive rotation INT2 collapses. System-wise, OSCAR reduces KV-cache memory by approximately 8x, improves throughput by up to 7x at large batch sizes under the same memory budget, and accelerates batch-size-1 decoding by up to 3x over BF16 due to reduced memory bandwidth overhead.

Binary quantization (BQ) compresses high-dimensional embeddings into one or two bits per coordinate, enabling nearest neighbor search at extreme speed. Yet a striking puzzle persists: BQ achieves competitive recall on contrastive embeddings but fails on others -- and two leading systems adopt diametrically opposite strategies (random rotation vs. preserving coordinate axes) without a common theory explaining when each is appropriate. We address this puzzle by connecting the Gaussian structure recently established for InfoNCE-trained representations to a statistical framework for BQ quality. Our analysis reveals two distinct roles of the covariance matrix. First, the full covariance structure -- not merely its diagonal -- determines the absolute level of ranking fidelity, with off-diagonal correlations contributing 30--50% of the signal. Second, coordinate heterogeneity (the non-uniformity of per-coordinate variances) governs key design choices: how much each additional bit contributes, and whether random rotation helps or hurts. We derive approximate expressions for ranking fidelity under a Gaussian model, show that the magnitude bit carries information proportional to heterogeneity, and show that random rotation destroys precisely the signal that one paradigm exploits while creating the isotropy that the other requires. A phenomenological scaling law predicts fidelity across models and dimensions. Experiments on 18 datasets spanning 9 embedding families support the main predictions and provide, to our knowledge, the first principled design guide for binary quantization systems.

Temporal-difference learning with function approximation can be unstable under off-policy sampling. TDC stabilizes off-policy TD through an auxiliary covariance correction, and TDRC further regularizes this correction in a single-timescale recursion. This paper studies a behavior-aware replacement of the auxiliary covariance geometry in the linear prediction setting, which is the standard local model for understanding the feature-space dynamics of value-function approximation. We first replace the TDC auxiliary matrix (C) by the behavior Bellman matrix (A_μ), yielding BA-TDC, and then regularize the same behavior-aware equation to obtain BA-TDRC. This two-step construction separates the contribution of behavior-aware geometry from the contribution of regularization. The linear analysis also provides a tractable model for an auxiliary-geometry design question that arises in neural-network value approximation, where feature covariances and temporal transition matrices jointly shape the last-layer correction dynamics. We give a finite-state mean-system formulation, prove fixed-point preservation and almost-sure convergence under a Hurwitz stability condition on the instantiated mean system, and compare deterministic mean rates through the spectral radius of the exact linear error recursion. Experiments on the two-state counterexample, Baird's counterexample, Random Walk, and Boyan Chain show that the behavior-aware replacement can be highly beneficial by itself on some tasks, but that regularization is necessary for robust performance across harder settings.

Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). Traditional econometric models, including GARCH-family and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) approaches, suffer from parametric rigidity, distributional assumptions, and numerical instability under stress, leading to systematic underestimation of tail risk. This paper proposes and validates a novel Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression-Historical Simulation (GPR-HS) framework for estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across a diversified portfolio of seven major global equity indices. The framework decouples the VCV estimation problem: individual asset volatilities are modelled dynamically using Univariate GPR with a Matern 5/2 kernel, while inter-asset correlations are estimated via stable historical covariance. A key methodological contribution is the Aggressive Noise Initialization (ANI) strategy, which sets the initial White Noise kernel variance equal to the empirical variance of the training returns, ensuring Gram matrix positive-definiteness, regularization, and conservative, regulatory-compliant forecasts. Evaluated using an expanding window forward-chaining cross-validation scheme over June 2020 -June 2025, the GPR-HS framework achieves regulatory compliance in the majority of test splits; including a 100% ES pass rate at the portfolio level, while outperforming the static Historical VaR benchmark in 71.4% of univariate cases by Quadratic Loss and 100% of cases by violation count.

Dimensionality reduction algorithms map high-dimensional data into visualizable 2D or 3D spaces, but traditionally rely on a discrete point-cloud paradigm. This discrete abstraction is susceptible to visual occlusion and artificial discontinuities, often failing to represent the continuous density of the underlying manifold. To address these limitations, we introduce Topo-GS, a framework that repurposes 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) to cast multidimensional projection as a meshless volumetric reconstruction process. Instead of standard photometric losses, Topo-GS is driven by local geometric constraints. By solving orthogonal Procrustes targets, the optimization enforces an As-Rigid-As-Possible prior while explicitly aligning the spatial covariance of each Gaussian to the local tangent space. Recognizing that unrolling data of varying intrinsic dimensionalities requires distinct spatial treatments, we utilize a topology-aware strategy that tailors the loss formulation to preserve either continuous 1D trajectories or cohesive 2D surfaces. Quantitative and visual evaluations demonstrate that Topo-GS successfully transforms discrete scatter plots into continuous volumetric representations, where inherent projection distortions explicitly manifest as observable geometric variations, while preserving local topological fidelity comparable to discrete baselines.

We consider the problem of testing properties of graphs underlying high-dimensional graphical models. We adopt the model of covariance queries introduced by Lugosi, Truszkowski, Velona, and Zwiernik (2021). We study the case when the underlying graph is a tree. The main results of the paper show that, while reconstructing the entire tree may be costly, certain global structural properties can be tested efficiently. In particular, we design randomized tests for global structural properties that use a sub-quadratic number of queries. We develop testing procedures for several fundamental properties, including the number of leaves, the maximum degree, the typical distance, and the diameter of the tree. For each property, we obtain explicit query complexity bounds that depend on the target threshold and tolerance parameters.

Robust state estimation for highly dynamic motion of legged robots remains challenging, especially in dynamic, contact-rich scenarios. Traditional approaches often rely on binary contact states that fail to capture the nuances of partial contact or directional slippage. This paper presents CoCo-InEKF, a differentiable invariant extended Kalman filter that utilizes continuous contact velocity covariances instead of binary contact states. These learned covariances allow the method to dynamically modulate contact confidence, accounting for more nuanced conditions ranging from firm contact to directional slippage or no contact. To predict these covariances for a set of predefined contact candidate points, we employ a lightweight neural network trained end-to-end using a state-error loss. This approach eliminates the need for heuristic ground-truth contact labels. In addition, we propose an automated contact candidate selection procedure and demonstrate that our method is insensitive to their exact placement. Experiments on a bipedal robot demonstrate a superior accuracy-efficiency tradeoff for linear velocity estimation, as well as improved filter consistency compared to baseline methods. This enables the robust execution of challenging motions, including dancing and complex ground interactions -- both in simulation and in the real world.

Contrastively pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) serve as powerful feature extractors. Yet, their shared latent spaces are prone to structural anomalies and act as repositories for non-semantic, multi-modal noise. To address this phenomenon, we employ spectral decomposition of covariance matrices to decompose the VLM latent space into a multi-modal semantic signal component and a shared noise subspace. We observe that this noise geometry exhibits strong subgroup invariance across distinct data subsets. Crucially, pruning these shared noise dimensions is mainly harmless, preserving or actively improving downstream task performance. By isolating true semantic signals from artifactual noise, this work provides new mechanistic insights into the representational structure of modern VLMs, suggesting that a substantial fraction of their latent geometry is governed by shared, architecture-level noise rather than task-relevant semantics alone.

Regret is the cost of uncertainty in algorithmic decision-making. Quantifying regret typically requires computationally expensive simulation via Sample Average Approximation (SAA), with complexity $\mathcal{O}(Bn^{2}d^{3})$ in the number of scenarios $B$, variables $n$, and constraints $d$. % This paper proves that expected regret in any stochastic optimization problem admits the exact decomposition % \begin{equation*} \mathrm{Regret}(c) = \mathrm{Cov}(c,,π^{}(c)) + R(c), \end{equation} % where $c$ is the vector of uncertain parameters, $π^{*}(c)$ is the optimal decision, and $R(c)$ is a residual whose magnitude we bound explicitly under Lipschitz, smooth, and strongly convex conditions. % For linear programs and unconstrained quadratic programs, including the classical Markowitz portfolio problem, we prove $R(c)=0$ exactly, so that $\mathrm{Regret}(c) = \mathrm{Cov}(c,π^{*}(c))$ holds without approximation. % When historical cost-decision pairs $\{(c_i, π^*(c_i))\}$ are available, the covariance can be estimated in $\mathcal{O}(nd^{2})$ time, which is orders of magnitude faster than SAA. The estimation is performed by a single pass through the data. % We derive concentration bounds, a central limit theorem, and an asymptotically unbiased residual estimator, and we validate all results on synthetic LP, QP, and integer programming instances and on a rolling-window portfolio experiment using ten years of CRSP equity data.

We present a covariance-aware sampler that improves the quality of pixel-space Diffusion Model (DM) sampling in the few-step regime. We hypothesize that in the few-step regime samplers fail because they rely solely on the predicted mean of the reverse distribution, while our solution explicitly models the reverse-process covariance. Our method combines Tweedie's formula to estimate the covariance with an efficient, structured Fourier-space decomposition of the covariance matrix. Implemented as an extension of DDIM, our method requires only a minimal overhead: one extra Jacobian-Vector Product (JVP) per step. We demonstrate that for pixel-based DMs, our method consistently produces superior samples compared to state-of-the-art second order samplers (Heun, DPM-Solver++) and the recent aDDIM sampler, at an identical number of function evaluations (NFE).

Residual risk metrics have recently been introduced to assess the safety implications of automated driving systems. Existing approaches typically assume a deterministic ego pose and concentrate mainly on perception errors related to surrounding objects and latency effects. In practice, however, automated vehicles operate under considerable localization uncertainty, especially in complex urban settings and in adverse weather conditions. This work extends the spatial residual risk formulation to the belief space by explicitly modeling ego pose uncertainty as a Gaussian distribution. Residual risk is reformulated as the expected degradation-induced risk over the ego pose belief distribution. Within a particle-based risk estimation framework, localization uncertainty is incorporated into the computation of collision probabilities through covariance fusion of ego and object uncertainties.

Data-free continual learning (DFCIL) relies on model inversion to synthesize pseudo-samples and mitigate catastrophic forgetting. However, existing inversion methods are fundamentally limited by a simplifying assumption: they model feature distributions using diagonal covariance, effectively ignoring correlations that define the geometry of learned representations. As a result, synthesized samples often lack fidelity, limiting knowledge retention. In this work, we show that modeling feature dependencies is a key ingredient for effective DFCIL. We introduce REMIX, a structured covariance modeling framework that enables scalable full-covariance modeling without the prohibitive cost of dense matrix inversion and log-determinant computation. By leveraging a Laplace kernel parameterization, REMIX captures structured feature dependencies using memory that scales linearly with the feature dimensionality, while requiring only an additional logarithmic factor in computation. Modeling these correlations produces more coherent synthetic samples and consistently improves performance across standard DFCIL benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that moving beyond diagonal assumptions is essential for effective and scalable data-free continual learning. Our code is available at https://github. com/pkrukowski1/REMIX-Model-Inversion-via-Laplace-Kernel.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has emerged as a promising approach for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, it struggles to effectively balance the tradeoff between exploration and exploitation during training, often resulting in suboptimal performance. Motivated by the theoretical insight that changes in entropy are governed by the covariance between token probabilities and their corresponding advantages, we propose a hyperparameter-free, covariance-weighted optimization method that dynamically down-weights extreme token-level updates via a Gaussian kernel. This approach automatically reduces the instability caused by exploration-exploitation trade-off while preserving informative learning signals. Extensive empirical evaluations show that our approach improves downstream performance across reasoning benchmarks compared with GRPO, and effectively stablizes entropy as training progresses.

We present the Spatial Adapter, a parameter-efficient post-hoc layer that equips any frozen first-stage predictor with a structured spatial representation of its residual field and an induced closed-form spatial covariance. The adapter operates as a cascade second stage on residuals, jointly learning a spatially regularized orthonormal basis and per-sample scores via a tractable mini-batch ADMM procedure, without modifying any first-stage parameter. Because the first-stage parameters are frozen, the adapter does not retrain the backbone; its role is to supply a compressed distributional summary of the residual field. Smoothness, sparsity, and orthogonality together turn a generic low-rank factorization into an identifiable spatial representation whose induced residual covariance admits a closed-form low-rank-plus-noise estimator; the effective rank is determined data-adaptively by spectral thresholding, while the nominal rank K is an optimization-side upper bound only. This covariance enables kriging-style spatial prediction at unobserved locations, with plug-in uncertainty quantification as a secondary downstream use. Across synthetic data, Weather2K for spatial-holdout prediction, and GWHD patch grids as a basis-transferability diagnostic, the adapter recovers residual spatial structure when paired with frozen first stages from linear models to deep spatiotemporal and vision backbones; the added representation uses fewer than K(N+T) parameters alongside a compact residual-trend network.

Many three-dimensional spatial fields are anisotropic, with directions of rapid and slow variation that need not align with the coordinate axes. Standard Gaussian process kernels with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) capture only axis-aligned anisotropy, while generic full symmetric positive definite (SPD) metrics can represent rotated anisotropy but do not parameterise principal length-scales and directions directly. We introduce an interpretable rotationally anisotropic GP kernel that parameterises a three-dimensional SPD covariance metric using three principal length-scales and an explicit SO(3) rotation. The rotation is represented by an axis-angle vector and mapped to SO(3) via the Lie-algebra exponential map, giving unconstrained Euclidean coordinates for inference while always inducing a valid SPD metric. The construction spans the same family of three-dimensional SPD covariance metrics as a generic full-SPD parameterisation, but exposes the geometry differently: length-scales and orientation are explicit, interpretable, and directly available for prior specification and posterior summaries. We perform Bayesian inference on these quantities using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and characterise the resulting symmetries and weakly identified regimes. On synthetic data with rotated anisotropy, the posterior recovers the generating metric and improves prediction relative to an axis-aligned ARD baseline, while matching the predictive performance of a generic full SPD baseline. When the ground truth is axis-aligned, posterior mass concentrates near the identity rotation and predictive performance matches ARD. On a material-density dataset from a laboratory-fabricated nano-brick, the inferred metric reveals rotated anisotropy that is not captured by axis-aligned kernels.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit two striking and ostensibly unrelated behaviours: in-context learning (ICL) and repetitive generation. In both, the model behaves as though it had summarised the context into a population-level statistic and discarded token-level detail. We ask whether this ``summarisation and forgetting'' can be derived from the attention mechanism itself, and answer in the affirmative. Under stationary, ergodic and elliptical inputs, the softmax attention output converges almost surely to $Θ_VΣΘ_K^{\top}Θ_Q x_t$, where $Σ$ is the input covariance; the long-context limit is therefore a linear readout of the input's second-order statistics. Two consequences follow. (i) For in-context linear regression, a single softmax head can implement one step of population gradient descent. Stacking such heads with residual connections iterates this update and implements multiple gradient descent steps. (ii) Propagated across an $L$-layer transformer, this readout drives the terminal hidden state at the parametric $1/t$ rate to a deterministic function of the current token alone, so that autoregressive generation collapses asymptotically to a first-order Markov chain whose attracting orbits furnish a structural account of repetition and mode collapse. The two phenomena thus emerge as facets of a single covariance-readout principle.

Recently, Muon and related spectral optimizers have demonstrated strong empirical performance as scalable stochastic methods, often outperforming Adam. Yet their behaviour remains poorly understood. We analyze stochastic spectral optimizers, including Muon, on a high-dimensional matrix-valued least squares problem. We derive explicit deterministic dynamics that provide a tractable framework for studying learning behaviour with a focus on (stochastic) SignSVD, which Muon approximates, and (stochastic) SignSGD, the latter serving as a proxy for Adam. Our analysis shows that for large batch size, SignSVD performs a square-root preconditioning with respect to the data covariance spectrum, while for small batch size smaller eigenmodes behave like SGD, slowing down convergence. We contrast with SignSGD which for generic covariance performs no preconditioning and has no transition, leading to different optimal learning rates and convergence characteristics. The two methods match up to a constant factor with isotropic data, but behave differently with anisotropic data. An analysis of a power law covariance model with data exponent $α$ and target exponent $β$ shows there are three phases in the $(α,β)$ plane: one where SignSGD is uniformly favored, one where SignSVD is uniformly favored, and a third where the two methods exhibit a trade-off in performance.

Mode separation, namely how sharply a distribution fragments into barrier-separated clusters, is a fundamental geometric property of densities, difficult to quantify in high dimensions. It is structurally distinct from dispersion, yet existing tools fall short: differential entropy rises with spread regardless of fragmentation, PCA orders directions by variance regardless of barriers, and mutual information requires a mixture decomposition one usually does not have. We measure mode separation through a single stochastic process intrinsic to the density: a unique reversible diffusion with $f$ as its stationary distribution and constant scalar diffusion coefficient. We extract two readouts from its autocovariance matrix: SSA (Sum of Squared Autocorrelations), a scalar barrier-sensitive measure; and DA (Dominant Autocorrelation directions), linear projections ordered by metastability rather than variance. Under an isotropic-Gaussian null, we derive a closed-form spectrum for the empirical autocovariance that generalizes Marchenko--Pastur, with an analytic upper edge that selects the lag at which DA is read off. Both readouts use only samples and a score function, scaling to high dimensions through pretrained score-based generative models via Tweedie's identity. We apply our framework to three settings: (i) synthetic Gaussian mixtures, where SSA tracks mutual information; (ii) SDXL text-to-image generations, where SSA and DA capture structure that entropy and PCA miss; and (iii) molecular dynamics of alanine dipeptide, where DA recovers the known slow backbone dihedrals from static samples alone.

We propose CAST, a dual-stream architecture that utilizes channel-aware spatial transfer learning for isolated sign language recognition addressing the challenges of magnitude-only 60~GHz radar Range-Time Maps (RTM). The proposed framework combines three physics-aware architectures with pretrained vision backbones, which operate under radar-only constraints across clinical and alphabetical gestures. First, an explicit decibel-to-linear inversion is combined with a windowed fast Fourier transform that extracts Cadence Velocity Diagrams (CVD) while avoiding the harmonic artifacts that arise from the spectral analysis of log-compressed signals. Second, a cross-antenna spatial attention module applies attention to raw antenna channels before the convolution, preserving inter-receiver amplitude covariance. Third, an asymmetric cross-attention mechanism fuses representations from parallel ConvNeXt-Tiny (CVD) and EfficientNetV2-S (RTM) backbones. Extensive experiments reveal that the architecture achieves a Top-1 accuracy of 80.5% under 5-fold cross-validation, establishing a 3.3% improvement over the best single-model baseline (77.2%). The findings suggest that physics-aware signal representations form a promising direction for radar-only sign language recognition under constrained sensor modalities. The source code is available at: https://github.com/Shakhoyat/CAST-at-SignEval2026.

In dynamic acoustic environments characterized by time-varying interferers and moving sources, effective beamforming requires accurately identifying stationary regions over time. Traditional Capon beamformers rely on the instantaneous ensemble covariance matrix, which is inaccessible in practice. Practical implementations overcome this by estimating the sample covariance matrix (SCM) through averaging over a block of temporal samples. However, in non-stationary settings, a naive batch approach fails. Moving interferers smear the SCM, causing the beamformer to place nulls in outdated locations while failing to track newly active interferers, thereby degrading its nulling capabilities. To address this fundamental limitation, an Online Segmented Beamformer is proposed. This algorithm incorporates data-driven temporal segmentation to causally minimize output power while dynamically adapting the SCM estimation windows to local stationarity. By framing the problem through the lens of dynamic programming, the proposed method tracks abrupt environmental changes and resets covariance estimates in real-time. We validate the performance of this framework in a complex, reverberant simulated acoustic environment and in highly reverberant real world experiments, demonstrating its superiority over fixed-window adaptive methods.

Understanding how deep neural networks learn representations remains a central challenge in machine learning theory. In this work, we propose a feature-centric framework for analyzing neural network training by relating weight updates to feature evolution. We introduce a simple identity, the Feature Learning Equation, which identifies the weight Gram matrix as the key object capturing feature dynamics. This enables us to interpret gradient descent as implicitly inducing a hypothetical evolution of features, whose covariance structure - termed the Virtual Covariance - characterizes how representations evolve during training. Building on this perspective, we introduce Target Linearity, a measure quantifying the linear alignment between features and targets. By analyzing the training and layer-wise dynamics, we show that deep networks learn to sequentially transform representations toward target-linear structure. This linearization perspective provides a unified interpretation of several empirical phenomena, including Neural Collapse and linear interpolation in generative models.

Trimming suspicious calibration points is a common response to contamination in conformal prediction. Its effect on clean-target coverage, however, is governed by the retained law induced by trimming, not by the contamination level alone. We analyse fixed-threshold trimming as conditioning rather than purification. It replaces the contaminated calibration law with a retained law, reducing clean-target coverage to a one-dimensional score-CDF transfer problem with an exact finite-sample identity. A componentwise bound on the transfer gap gives a population-level diagnostic. This separates a clean-side covariance cost from a retained-contamination cost, governed by the dirty-to-clean retention ratio. Trimming helps when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities while remaining score-neutral on the clean population. Otherwise, it cannot substantially reduce contamination through the retained mixture coefficient. We also give finite-sample certificate templates that provide numerical guarantees under independent audit.

Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning is widely used for urban navigation, but the covariance reported by the GNSS solver is often unreliable in urban canyons. Existing differentiable factor graph optimization (DFGO) methods learn measurement weighting through the solver, but they still use position-only objectives. As a result, the position estimate may improve while the reported covariance remains too small, too large, or incorrectly oriented. We propose CredibleDFGO (CDFGO), a differentiable GNSS factor graph framework that makes covariance credibility an explicit training target. A Weighting Generation Network (WGN) predicts per-satellite reliability weights, and a differentiable Gauss-Newton solver maps these weights to a position estimate and a Hessian-derived posterior covariance. We use proper scoring rules to supervise the East-North predictive distribution end to end. We study negative log-likelihood (NLL), the energy score (ES), and their combination. Results on three UrbanNav test scenes show consistent gains in covariance credibility. Positioning accuracy also improves on the medium-urban and harsh-urban scenes; on the deep-urban scene, both the mean horizontal error and the 95th-percentile error improve. On the harsh-urban Mong Kok (MK) scene, CDFGO-Combined reduces the mean horizontal error from 13.77 m to 11.68 m, reduces NLL from 40.63 to 6.59, and reduces ES from 12.31 to 9.05 relative to DFGO (MAE). Case studies link the MK improvement to better axis-wise consistency, more credible local covariance ellipses, and satellite-level reweighting.

In multiclass softmax cross-entropy, the full generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) curvature couples all output logits through the softmax covariance, making curvature-vector products harder to scale as the number of classes grows. We show that the standard multiclass GGN can be decomposed exactly into a true-vs-rest term and a positive semidefinite within-competitor covariance term. Fast Gauss-Newton (FGN) retains the first term and drops the second, yielding a positive semidefinite under-approximation of the multiclass GGN that is exact for binary classification. The derivation uses an exact true-vs-rest scalar-margin representation of softmax cross-entropy: the loss and gradient are unchanged, and the approximation enters only at the curvature level. Exploiting the FGN curvature structure, the damped update can be written as an equivalent whitened row-space system with one row per mini-batch example. We solve this system matrix-free by conjugate gradient using Jacobian-vector and vector-Jacobian products of the scalar margin map. Targeted mechanism experiments and an evaluation on a fixed-feature multiclass head support the predictions from the decomposition: FGN stays closest to the full softmax GGN when competitor mass is concentrated or damping is large, and deviates as the dropped within-competitor covariance grows.

Gaussian process (GP) marginal likelihood scores and kernel conditional independence tests are theoretically appealing for nonlinear causal discovery but computationally prohibitive at scale. We present three complementary RFF-based methods forming a practical toolkit for score-based, constraint-based, and hybrid causal discovery. The Fourier Feature Marginal Likelihood (FFML) score approximates the exact GP marginal likelihood by replacing the $n x n$ kernel Gram matrix with a finite-dimensional feature representation, reducing cost to $O(nm^2 + m^3)$ while retaining the probabilistic interpretation and automatic complexity penalty of the exact score. FFML extends to mixed (continuous and discrete) parent sets via a product-kernel construction, with a Kronecker path for small discrete parent sets and a Hadamard-product path otherwise. The Tetrad Random Fourier Feature (TRFF) score is a complementary BIC-style alternative using penalized Student-t regression with random Fourier features. TRFF offers robustness to heavy-tailed noise and faster runtime than FFML. Empirically, TRFF and FFML exhibit a complementary precision-recall profile: TRFF achieves higher precision while FFML achieves better recall and lower SHD overall. The Fourier Feature Conditional Independence (FFCI) test is a fast nonparametric CI test for mixed data, using ridge residualization in feature space and a Frobenius-norm cross-covariance statistic approximated as a weighted sum of chi-squared variables. Empirically, BOSS+FFML achieves the lowest SHD on nonlinear data, while BOSS+TRFF offers the highest precision. When run through PC-Max, FFCI and RCIT exhibit complementary precision-recall profiles: RCIT is more precise while FFCI achieves better recall and substantially lower SHD, at approximately twice the runtime.

Training loss and throughput can hide distinct internal representation in language-model training. To examine these hidden mechanics, we use spectral measurements as practical and operational diagnostics. Using a controlled family of decoder-only models adapted from the modded NanoGPT codebase, we introduce an empirical protocol based on activation covariance and per-sample gradient SVD spectra. This dual-view reveals three empirical findings and one mechanistic explanation. First, batch size acts as a latent determinant of representation geometry: runs that reach equal loss settle into systematically distinct activation spectra. Second, the activation covariance tail measured early in training reliably forecasts downstream token efficiency. Third, movement of the activation spectrum head (leading modes), together with gradient spectra, characterizes underlying learning-dynamics changes, separating learning-side architectural improvements from primarily execution-side gains. These predictive and diagnostic signals persist across the 12-, 36-, and 48-layer model tiers. Finally, a mechanistic model proves the main observations and explains how activation covariance spectra correlate with task-aligned feature learning.

We introduce a novel framework for constructing scalable and flexible covariance kernels for Gaussian processes (GPs) by directly learning the covariance structure under a regression-type parameterization induced by Vecchia approximations, using deep neural architectures. Specifically, we model kriging coefficients and conditional standard deviations, deterministic quantities that uniquely characterize the covariance, providing stable and informative learning targets. Exploiting the permutation-equivariant structure of conditioning sets in the Vecchia factorization, we derive a universal representation for permutation-preserving functions and design neural architectures that respect this symmetry, leading to improved training stability and data efficiency. The proposed approach enables expressive, non-stationary kernel learning while maintaining computational scalability, thereby bridging classical GP methodology with modern deep learning.

Unlike vision and language domains, graph learning lacks a shared input space, as input features differ across graph datasets not only in semantics, but also in value ranges and dimensionality. This misalignment prevents graph models from generalizing across datasets, limiting their use as foundation models. In this work, we propose ALL-IN, a simple and theoretically grounded method that enables transferability across datasets with different input features. Our approach projects node features into a shared random space and constructs representations via covariance-based statistics, thus eliminating dependence on the original feature space. We show that the computed node-covariance operators and the resulting node representations are invariant in distribution to permutations of the input features. We further demonstrate that the expected operator exhibits invariance to general orthogonal transformations of the input features. Empirically, ALL-IN achieves strong performance across diverse node- and graph-level tasks on unseen datasets with new input features, without requiring architecture changes or retraining. These results point to a promising direction for input-agnostic, transferable graph models.

The Forward-Forward algorithm eliminates global gradient flow and full network activations storage. However, in convolutional settings, existing BP-free FF methods significantly under-perform backpropagation on complex benchmarks such as ImageNet-100 and Tiny-ImageNet. We identify this gap as a structural bottleneck in goodness extraction: standard sum-of-squares formulation collapses feature volumes into channel-wise activation energies which omits critical second-order dependencies. To address this, we propose a framework centered on three key components. First, Bi-axis Covariance Goodness(BiCovG) explicitly augments the standard goodness function with structured second-order information along two axes: cross-channel projections that model inter-feature covariance, and nested multi-scale aggregation that encodes spatial correlation statistics. This provides a tractable approximation to covariance-aware goodness without the prohibitive O(C^2) complexity of explicit matrix estimation. Second, a lightweight Logistic Fusion module aggregates layer-wise predictions, amplifying the contribution of deeper representations. Third, the Feature Alignment Layer(FAL) introduces a zero-initialized correction at block boundaries to mitigate representation misalignment in deep locally trained networks. By introducing these three components, we effectively double the depth of viable Forward-Forward learning, extending robust layer utilization from shallow baselines to 16 layer architectures like VGG-16. The resulting BP-free model achieves 73.01% on ImageNet-100 and 50.30% on Tiny-ImageNet. As a practical extension, Hybrid Goodness Blocks control the scope of gradient propagation via configurable block sizes, further narrowing the ImageNet-100 gap to 3.6% and matching BP on Tiny-ImageNet, while still reducing peak memory by approximately 50% relative to BP.

Evaluating large language models across many benchmarks is expensive, yet many benchmarks are highly correlated. We formalize the selection of a small, informative subset as submodular maximization under a multivariate Gaussian model. Entropy (log-determinant covariance) and mutual information between selected and remaining benchmarks arise as natural objectives. Both are submodular; entropy selection coincides with pivoted Cholesky and has spectral residual bounds, while mutual information is non-monotone in general but empirically monotone for small subsets, so we optimize it greedily. Experiments on three matrices from ten public leaderboards show that mutual information selection outperforms entropy for imputation at small subsets.

This work investigates the phenomenon of Neural Collapse (NC) in multi-label classification, extending its conceptual framework from multi-class learning to general correlated and imbalanced multi-label settings. Although recent studies have identified a ''tag-wise averaging'' structure for multi-label features, this view relies on implicit assumptions of label balance and combinatorial symmetry. Consequently, it fails to account for the geometrical distortions caused by intrinsic label correlations and data imbalance, which are common in practice. We resolve the multiplicity-one imbalance conjecture raised by Li et al. (2024), showing that higher-multiplicity prototypes obey a class-frequency-weighted synthesis rule rather than uniform averaging. To address this, we propose a rigorous spectral-control framework to analyze the terminal phase of multi-label learning under general imbalanced conditions. We introduce the label covariance spectrum $κ_m$, a scalar controlling the distribution-dependent lower-bound geometry, derived from the second-order moment matrix of the label distribution. Contrary to the averaging perspective, our analysis reveals that the centered label covariance spectrum controls the stability of terminal geometry by quantifying the weakest centered inter-class contrast directions. We prove that the classical Tag-wise Averaging emerges only as a special case under perfect orthogonality. Numerical experiments on synthetic distributions validate our theoretical bounds. This work resolves the scaled-average aspect of the imbalance conjecture and establishes a unifying theoretical framework that extends Neural Collapse to complex, imbalanced multi-label settings.

Flavor-tagging calibrations are often provided either as scale factors measured at a finite set of working points or as binned corrections to a chosen one-dimensional discriminant. However, this approach falls short of providing continuous, event-level calibration across the full multicomponent outputs of modern taggers. This limitation leads to information loss in analyses that demand high-performance flavor tagging, restricting analyses to a limited set of predefined variables. In this work, we propose a geometry-aware framework that formulates flavor-tagger calibration as an optimal transport problem on the probability simplex. The transport maps are parameterized and trained in the isometric log-ratio coordinate system. Because the quadratic Euclidean cost of Brenier transport in this coordinate system is equivalent to the Aitchison distance on the simplex, the learned map induces a minimal deformation under the Aitchison geometry. Furthermore, we extract flavor-conditional target distributions directly from control-region data using an expectation-maximization (EM) technique that simultaneously fits multiple control regions, models each flavor component with a normalizing flow, and estimates the regional mixture fractions. The extracted targets are subsequently used to learn flavor-factorized transport maps. Because the joint estimation of mixture fractions and flexible component densities admits weakly constrained directions, we further introduce a linearized feedback-operator analysis that propagates the fitted composition covariance into the extracted component densities, separating data-constrained modes from those dominated by the composition prior. The simulation-based closure study demonstrates improved closure in dedicated control regions and in independent validation mixtures.

Information-theoretic generalization bounds analyze stochastic optimization by relating expected generalization error to the mutual information between learned parameters and training data. Virtual perturbation analyses of SGD add auxiliary Gaussian noise only in the proof, making mutual information tractable while leaving the actual SGD trajectory unchanged. Existing bounds, however, typically require perturbation covariances to be fixed independently of the optimization history, limiting their ability to represent geometries induced by moving gradient statistics, preconditioners, curvature proxies, and other pathwise information. We introduce predictable history-adaptive virtual perturbations, where the perturbation covariance at each iteration may depend on the past real SGD history but not on current or future randomness. This predictability enables a conditional Gaussian relative-entropy argument and yields generalization bounds for SGD with adaptive virtual-noise geometry. The bounds replace fixed sensitivity and gradient-deviation terms with conditional adaptive counterparts, include an output-sensitivity penalty from accumulated perturbation covariance, and reduce the deviation term to a conditional variance only under conditional unbiasedness. Since adaptive covariances may be data-dependent, we separate local Gaussian smoothing from global reference-kernel comparison. The resulting bound includes a covariance-comparison cost measuring the KL price of using an admissible reference geometry different from the actual adaptive covariance. Fixed-noise-style bounds are recovered under admissible synchronization, such as deterministic, public, or prefix-observable covariance rules. The framework recovers fixed isotropic and geometry-aware bounds as special cases while extending virtual perturbation analysis to history-dependent SGD without modifying the algorithm.

Channel fingerprint (CF) is considered a key enabler for facilitating the acquisition of channel state information (CSI) in massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems. In this work, we investigate a novel type of CF that stores statistical CSI (sCSI) at each potential location, referred to as statistical CF (sCF). Specifically, we reveal the relationship between sCSI, namely the channel spatial covariance matrix (CSCM), and the channel power angular spectrum (CPAS). Building on this foundation, we construct a unified tensor representation of the sCF and further reduce its dimension by exploiting the eigenvalue decomposition of the CSCM and its correlation with the PAS. Considering the practical constraints imposed by measurement cost, privacy, and security, we focus on three representative scenarios and uniformly formulate them as tensor restoration tasks. To this end, we propose a unified tensor-based learning architecture, termed LPWTNet. The architecture incorporates a closed-form Laplacian pyramid (LP) decomposition and reconstruction framework that replaces the traditional encoder-decoder structure, enabling efficient inference while capturing multi-scale frequency subband characteristics of the sCF. Additionally, a shared mask learning strategy is introduced to adaptively refine high-frequency sCF components through level-wise adjustments. To achieve a larger receptive field without over-parameterization, we further propose a small-kernel convolution mechanism based on the wavelet transform (WT), which decouples convolution across different frequency components of the sCF and enhances feature extraction efficiency. Extensive experiments show that the proposed approach delivers competitive reconstruction accuracy and computational efficiency across various sCF construction scenarios when compared with state-of-the-art baselines.

This paper proposes RCMAES, a novel variant of the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) for CEC benchmark optimization. RCMAES integrates a dimension-dependent nonlinear population-size reduction strategy with an adaptive restart mechanism within a pure CMA-ES framework. RCMAES is evaluated on three benchmark suites (CEC2017, CEC2020, and CEC2022) and compared with state-of-the-art DE algorithms as well as its closely related counterpart, BIPOP-aCMAES. Experimental results show that RCMAES achieves competitive and robust performance across all benchmarks.

We show that replacing the rolling SVD of AdamW updates with a rolling SVD of loss gradients changes the diagnostic by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Performing SVD on the loss gradient instead of the AdamW update increases the measured perturbative coupling between SED directions and Linear Centroid Hypothesis (LCH) features from $\bar{R}_k \approx 3$--$9\times$ to $100$--$330\times$ across four single-task modular arithmetic operations, eliminating the apparent operation dependence in the original measurement. On a multitask transformer with a shared encoder, update-based SED gives $\bar{R}_k \leq 1$ -- an apparent failure of the diagnostic -- while per-operation gradient-based SED recovers $\bar{R}_k = 20$--$45\times$ across all four operations. Gradient aggregation across competing tasks is the main obstruction; performing SVD on per-task gradients resolves it. A causal intervention shows that constraining attention updates to any rank-3 subspace (whether SED-derived or random) accelerates grokking by approximately $2.3\times$ across random seeds and operations, while removing the rank-3 component has negligible effect under proper gradient-projection methodology. The SED-LCH coupling is therefore a strong diagnostic of where feature formation concentrates in parameter space, but it is not a unique causal pathway: the natural full-rank AdamW attention update is highly rank-redundant under our hyperparameters.

We study the $K$-armed logistic bandit problem, where at each round, the agent observes $K$ feature vectors associated with $K$ actions. Existing approaches that achieve a rate-optimal $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{dT})$ regret bound rely heavily on context diversity assumptions, such as strict positivity of the minimum eigenvalue of a context covariance matrix. These assumptions, however, impose strong restrictions on the context process, as they rule out the situation where the context vectors are concentrated in a low-dimensional subspace. In this paper, we propose SupSplitLog, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first algorithm for logistic bandits that achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{dT})$ regret without any context diversity assumption. The key idea is to split the collected samples into two disjoint subsets when constructing estimators; one is used to compute an initial-point estimator, while the other is used to apply a Newton-type one-step correction procedure. The splitting rule is carefully designed to balance the accuracy requirements of the initial-point estimator and the one-step correction procedure. Moreover, SupSplitLog strictly improves on the existing algorithms in terms of the dependence on dimension $d$ in the regret upper bound. Furthermore, SupSplitLog can be adapted simply to deduce a regret bound that grows with a data-dependent complexity measure, avoiding a direct dependence on $d$, which is favorable when the context vectors are concentrated in a low-dimensional subspace. We also provide experimental results that demonstrate numerically the superiority of our algorithm, validating the theoretical results.

We study online inference and asymptotic covariance estimation for the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. While classical methods (such as plug-in and batch-means estimators) are available, they either require inaccessible second-order (Hessian) information or suffer from slow convergence. To address these challenges, we propose a novel, fully online de-biased covariance estimator that eliminates the need for second-order derivatives while significantly improving estimation accuracy. Our method employs a bias-reduction technique to achieve a convergence rate of $n^{(α-1)/2} \sqrt{\log n}$, outperforming existing Hessian-free alternatives.

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a fundamental tool for representation learning, but its global linear formulation fails to capture the structure of data supported on curved manifolds. In contrast, manifold learning methods model nonlinearity but often sacrifice the spectral structure and stability of PCA. We propose \emph{Geodesic Tangent Space Aggregation PCA (GTSA-PCA)}, a geometric extension of PCA that integrates curvature awareness and geodesic consistency within a unified spectral framework. Our approach replaces the global covariance operator with curvature-weighted local covariance operators defined over a $k$-nearest neighbor graph, yielding local tangent subspaces that adapt to the manifold while suppressing high-curvature distortions. We then introduce a geodesic alignment operator that combines intrinsic graph distances with subspace affinities to globally synchronize these local representations. The resulting operator admits a spectral decomposition whose leading components define a geometry-aware embedding. We further incorporate semi-supervised information to guide the alignment, improving discriminative structure with minimal supervision. Experiments on real datasets show consistent improvements over PCA, Kernel PCA, Supervised PCA and strong graph-based baselines such as UMAP, particularly in small sample size and high-curvature regimes. Our results position GTSA-PCA as a principled bridge between statistical and geometric approaches to dimensionality reduction.

Empirical studies of trained models often report a transient regime in which signal is detectable in a finite gradient descent time window before overfitting dominates. We provide an analytically tractable random-matrix model that reproduces this phenomenon for gradient flow in a linear teacher--student setting. In this framework, learning occurs when an isolated eigenvalue separates from a noisy bulk, before eventually disappearing in the overfitting regime. The key ingredient is anisotropy in the input covariance, which induces fast and slow directions in the learning dynamics. In a two-block covariance model, we derive the full time-dependent bulk spectrum of the symmetrized weight matrix through a $2\times 2$ Dyson equation, and we obtain an explicit outlier condition for a rank-one teacher via a rank-two determinant formula. This yields a transient Baik-Ben Arous-Péché (BBP) transition: depending on signal strength and covariance anisotropy, the teacher spike may never emerge, emerge and persist, or emerge only during an intermediate time interval before being reabsorbed into the bulk. We map the corresponding phase diagrams and validate the theory against finite-size simulations. Our results provide a minimal solvable mechanism for early stopping as a transient spectral effect driven by anisotropy and noise.

How much data is enough to make a scientific discovery? As biomedical datasets scale to millions of samples and AI models grow in capacity, progress increasingly depends on predicting when additional data will substantially improve performance. In practice, model development often relies on empirical scaling curves measured across architectures, modalities, and dataset sizes, with limited theoretical guidance on when performance should improve, saturate, or exhibit cross-over behavior. We propose a scaling-law framework for cross-modal discoverability based on spectral structure of data covariance operators, task-aligned signal projections, and learned representations. Many performance metrics, including AUC, can be expressed in terms of cumulative signal-to-noise energy accumulated across identifiable spectral modes of an encoder and cross-modal operator. Under mild assumptions, this accumulation follows a zeta-like scaling law governed by power-law decay of covariance spectra and aligned signal energy, leading naturally to the appearance of the Riemann zeta function. Representation learning methods such as sparse models, low-rank embeddings, and multimodal contrastive objectives improve sample efficiency by concentrating useful signal into earlier stable modes, effectively steepening spectral decay and shifting scaling curves. The framework predicts cross-over regimes in which simpler models perform best at small sample sizes, while higher-capacity or multimodal encoders outperform them once sufficient data stabilizes additional degrees of freedom. Applications include multimodal disease classification, imaging genetics, functional MRI, and topological data analysis. The resulting zeta law provides a principled way to anticipate when scaling data, improving representations, or adding modalities is most likely to accelerate discovery.

Factor-based Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) relies on likelihood-based estimation assuming a nonsingular sample covariance matrix, which breaks down in small-sample settings with $p>n$. To address this, we propose a novel estimation principle that reformulates the covariance structure into self-covariance and cross-covariance components. The resulting framework defines a likelihood-based feasible set combined with a relative error constraint, enabling stable estimation in small-sample settings where $p>n$ for sign and direction. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show improved stability, particularly in recovering the sign and direction of structural parameters. These results extend covariance-based SEM to small-sample settings and provide practically useful directional information for decision-making.

We establish that temporal averaging over multiple observations is the degenerate case of algebraic group action with the trivial group $G=\{e\}$. A General Replacement Theorem proves that a group-averaged estimator from one snapshot achieves equivalent subspace decomposition to multi-snapshot covariance estimation. The Trivial Group Embedding Theorem proves that the sample covariance is the accumulation of trivial-group estimates, with variance governed by a $(G,L)$ continuum as $1/(|G|\cdot L)$. The processing gain $10\log_{10}(M)$ dB equals the classical beamforming gain, establishing that this gain is a property of group order, not sensor count. The DFT, DCT, and KLT are unified as group-matched special cases. We conjecture a General Algebraic Averaging Theorem extending these results to arbitrary statistics, with variance governed by the effective group order $d_{\mathrm{eff}}$. Monte Carlo experiments on the first four sample moments across five group types confirm the conjecture to four-digit precision. The framework exploits the $structure$ of information (representation-theoretic symmetry of the data object) rather than the content, complementing Shannon's theory. Five applications are demonstrated: single-snapshot MUSIC, massive MIMO, single-pulse waveform classification, graph signal processing, and analysis of transformer LLMs. Techniques for blind group matching are described.

Existing methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks are either computationally intractable for large language models or require access to training data that is typically unavailable. We derive a lightweight alternative through two approximations: a first-order Taylor expansion that expresses uncertainty in terms of the gradient of the prediction and the parameter covariance, and an isotropy assumption on the parameter covariance. Together, these yield epistemic uncertainty as the squared gradient norm and aleatoric uncertainty as the Bernoulli variance of the point prediction, from a single forward-backward pass through an unmodified pretrained model. We justify the isotropy assumption by showing that covariance estimates built from non-training data introduce structured distortions that isotropic covariance avoids, and that theoretical results on the spectral properties of large networks support the approximation at scale. Validation against reference Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimates on synthetic problems shows strong correspondence that improves with model size. We then use the estimates to investigate when each uncertainty type carries useful signal for predicting answer correctness in question answering with large language models, revealing a benchmark-dependent divergence: the combined estimate achieves the highest mean AUROC on TruthfulQA, where questions involve genuine conflict between plausible answers, but falls to near chance on TriviaQA's factual recall, suggesting that parameter-level uncertainty captures a fundamentally different signal than self-assessment methods.

We study model-order selection and component-mean estimation for multidimensional Gaussian mixture models with a known common covariance matrix. Using empirical characteristic-function measurements, we construct Fourier covariance matrices whose population counterparts have rank equal to the number of mixture components. We establish a minimax lower bound showing that distinguishing a separated $k$-component mixture from the class of $(k-1)$-component mixtures requires $Ω(Δ^{-(4k-4)})$ samples. We then develop an oracle spectral-thresholding estimator with a sufficient sample size of order $Δ^{-(8k-8)}$ for fixed $k$, together with a practical singular-value-ratio estimator. Given the model order, we estimate the component means by score-initialized gradient descent on a MUSIC-type projection objective. Under an explicit sample-size condition, a qualifying sample initialization lies in a certified attraction region with high probability, after which the iterates converge linearly. For fixed positive component separation, the resulting mean estimates achieve the parametric rate $\mathcal{O}_p(n^{-1/2})$. Numerical experiments demonstrate competitive accuracy and lower computational cost than expectation-maximization across a range of multidimensional settings.

Image registration is an ill-posed dense vision task, where multiple solutions achieve similar loss values, motivating probabilistic inference. Variational inference has previously been employed to capture these distributions, however restrictive assumptions about the posterior form can lead to poor characterisation, overconfidence and low-quality samples. More flexible posteriors are typically bottlenecked by the complexity of high-dimensional covariance matrices required for dense 3D image registration. In this work, we present a memory and computationally efficient inference method, Structured SIR, that enables expressive, multi-modal, characterisation of uncertainty with high quality samples. We propose the use of a Sampled Importance Resampling (SIR) algorithm with a novel memory-efficient high-dimensional covariance parameterisation as the sum of a low-rank covariance and a sparse, spatially structured Cholesky precision factor. This structure enables capturing complex spatial correlations while remaining computationally tractable. We evaluate the efficacy of this approach in 3D dense image registration of brain MRI data, which is a very high-dimensional problem. We demonstrate that our proposed method produces uncertainty estimates that are significantly better calibrated than those produced by variational methods, achieving equivalent or better accuracy. Crucially, we show that the model yields highly structured multi-modal posterior distributions, enable effective and efficient uncertainty quantification.

Accurate and efficient tracking of surgical instruments is fundamental for Robot-Assisted Minimally Invasive Surgery. Although vision-based robot pose estimation has enabled markerless calibration without tedious physical setups, reliable tool tracking for surgical robots still remains challenging due to partial visibility and specialized articulation design of surgical instruments. Previous works in the field are usually prone to unreliable feature detections under degraded visual quality and data scarcity, whereas rendering-based methods often struggle with computational costs and suboptimal convergence. In this work, we incorporate CMA-ES, an evolutionary optimization strategy, into a versatile tracking pipeline that jointly estimates surgical instrument pose and joint configurations. Using batch rendering to efficiently evaluate multiple pose candidates in parallel, the method significantly reduces inference time and improves convergence robustness. The proposed framework further generalizes to joint angle-free and bi-manual tracking settings, making it suitable for both vision feedback control and online surgery video calibration. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms prior approaches in both accuracy and runtime. Source code and data are available at https://github.com/hanyang-hu/online_dvrk_tracking.

We study identifiability in continuous-time linear stationary stochastic differential equations with a known causal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we relax the assumption of a known diffusion matrix, thereby respecting the model's intrinsic scale invariance. Therefore, rather than recovering drift coefficients themselves, we introduce edge-sign identifiability: for a given causal structure, we ask whether the sign of a given drift entry is uniquely determined across all observational covariance matrices induced by parametrisations compatible with that structure. This leads to a trichotomy of edge-sign identifiability: identifiable, non-identifiable, and partially identifiable. This trichotomy introduces the new notion of partial identifiability to the literature, which we show is a genuine category in our setting. Under a notion of faithfulness, we derive criteria to identify membership of each category for general graphs. Applying our criteria to specific causal structures, both analogous to classical causal settings (e.g., instrumental variables) and novel cyclic settings, we determine their edge-sign identifiability and, in some cases, obtain explicit expressions for the sign of a target edge in terms of the observational covariance matrix.

Proper scoring rules are essential for evaluating probabilistic forecasts. We propose a simple algebraic rearrangement of the Yates covariance decomposition of the Brier score into three independently non-negative terms: a variance mismatch term, a correlation deficit term, and a calibration-in-the-large term. This rearrangement makes the optimality conditions for perfect forecasting transparent: the optimal forecast must simultaneously match the variance of outcomes, achieve perfect positive correlation with outcomes, and match the mean of outcomes. Any deviation from these conditions results in a positive contribution to the Brier score.

A common approach to perform PCA on probability measures is to embed them into a Hilbert space where standard functional PCA techniques apply. While convergence rates for estimating the embedding of a single measure from $m$ samples are well understood, the literature has not addressed the setting involving multiple measures. In this paper, we study PCA in a double asymptotic regime where $n$ probability measures are observed, each through $m$ samples. We derive convergence rates of the form $n^{-1/2} + m^{-α}$ for the empirical covariance operator and the PCA excess risk, where $α>0$ depends on the chosen embedding. This characterizes the relationship between the number $n$ of measures and the number $m$ of samples per measure, revealing a sparse (small $m$) to dense (large $m$) transition in the convergence behavior. Moreover, we prove that the dense-regime rate is minimax optimal for the empirical covariance error. Our numerical experiments validate these theoretical rates and demonstrate that appropriate subsampling preserves PCA accuracy while reducing computational cost.

PCA can be used for rotation invariant features, describing a shape with its $p_{ab}=E[(x_i-E[x_a])(x_b-E[x_b])]$ covariance matrix approximating shape by ellipsoid, allowing for rotation invariants like its traces of powers. However, real shapes are usually much more complicated, hence there is proposed its extension to e.g. $p_{abc}=E[(x_a-E[x_a])(x_b-E[x_b])(x_c-E[x_c])]$ order-3 or higher tensors describing central moments, or polynomial times Gaussian allowing decodable shape descriptors of arbitrarily high accuracy, and their analogous rotation invariants. Its practical applications could be rotation-invariant features to include shape modulo rotation e.g. for molecular shape descriptors, or for up to rotation object recognition in 2D images/3D scans maybe also for 3D scene understanding, or shape similarity metric allowing inexpensive comparison of objects modulo rotation avoiding costly optimization over rotations.

Toeplitz covariance estimation is a classical problem in statistical signal processing, yet the geometry of the Gaussian maximum-likelihood objective remains only partially understood. Recent algorithms, including Newton-type, majorization-minimization, and gradient-based methods, indicate that the nonconvex problem can often be globally solved when the number of samples is sufficiently large, but they also reveal a difficult computational landscape. In this work, we study this phenomenon through an overparameterized Caratheodory representation of positive definite Toeplitz covariance matrices. The Caratheodory decomposition parameterizes the covariance using a combination of steering vectors with different frequencies and amplitudes. Our first result shows that fixed-grid amplitude optimization is fundamentally insufficient. Even in the population setting, and even with arbitrarily many fixed frequency grid points, amplitude-only optimization can have a strictly positive error floor under grid mismatch. This motivates optimizing both amplitudes and frequencies. In this case, our main theoretical result proves that the joint optimization has a benign population landscape: every stationary point that produces a positive definite covariance matrix recovers the true Toeplitz covariance. These findings suggest a simple interpretation of the Toeplitz covariance problem: the population landscape is globally benign, but may be highly ill-conditioned. In our numerical experiments, overparameterization improves convergence speed and finite-sample accuracy. In particular, it allows simple gradient descent to approach the Cramer Rao bound while keeping the implementation simple.

We develop a framework for analyzing the learning dynamics of high-dimensional problems trained using one-pass stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with data from multiple anisotropic classes. Our main theorem provides exact expressions for quantities of interest, including the risk and the overlap with the true signal, in terms of a deterministic system of ODEs, valid in the high-dimensional limit. The theorem holds for a broad class of optimization problems and extends to settings where the number of classes grows with dimension. To illustrate its utility, we investigate in detail the effect of the data's anisotropic structure on the problems of binary logistic regression and least-squares (LS) loss. We study the LS in a linear multiclass setup and derive a learning-rate threshold that depends on the average eigenvalue of the covariance matrices. In the binary logistic regression, we study three cases: isotropic covariances, data covariance matrices with a large fraction of zero eigenvalues (denoted as the zero-one model), and covariance matrices with power-law spectra. We show that a structural phase transition occurs. In particular, for the zero-one model and the power-law model with sufficiently large power, SGD aligns more closely with values of the class mean that are projected onto the ``clean directions'' (i.e., directions of smaller variance). This is supported by analytical studies and numerical simulations, which show the exact asymptotic behavior of the loss in the high-dimensional limit. The effects of data anisotropy that we demonstrate are likely to hold beyond these examples and illustrate one application of the broader theorem that we prove.

Signed graphs are equipped with both positive and negative edge weights, encoding pairwise correlations as well as anti-correlations in data. A balanced signed graph is a signed graph with no cycles containing an odd number of negative edges. Laplacian of a balanced signed graph has eigenvectors that map via a simple linear transform to ones in a corresponding positive graph Laplacian, thus enabling reuse of spectral filtering tools designed for positive graphs. We propose an efficient computation method to learn a balanced signed graph Laplacian directly from data. Specifically, extending a previous linear programming (LP) based sparse inverse covariance estimation method called CLIME, we formulate a new LP problem for each Laplacian column $i$, where the linear constraints restrict weight signs of edges stemming from node $i$, so that nodes of same / different polarities are connected by positive / negative edges. We derive a feasible CLIME parameter $ρ_i$ for each sign-constrained column problem. We solve the LP problem efficiently by tailoring a sparse LP method based on ADMM. We theoretically prove that the row / column updates produce a non-increasing objective sequence, and show that the iterations are terminated in a finite number of steps. Extensive experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our balanced graph learning method outperforms competing methods and enables reuse of spectral filters, wavelets, and graph neural nets (GNN) constructed for positive graphs.