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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 50% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 224

Jun 2, 2026cs.CY

AI-Generated Traces for Novice Programmers: Learning Effects and Learner Differences in a Multi-Institutional Study

Introductory programming (CS1) courses often struggle to support students' understanding of program execution. While visualizations can make execution processes explicit, their effectiveness depends on design and context, and empirical evidence for AI-generated visualizations remains limited. We propose Generated Animated Traces (GATs), AI-generated, analogy-based, narrated animations that coordinate source code, execution state, and conceptual analogies. We conduct a study at two institutions in CS1 courses (Python, N=961; Java N=151) comparing GATs to textual explanations. We measure immediate learning performance and experience, end-of-course engagement and exam performance. Results show that GATs can yield selective benefits for immediate learning, but benefits are context-dependent and short-term. We observe that GATs' influence on performance is moderated by learner engagement profiles. This finding underscores the importance of personalized approaches.

Yuri Noviello, Naaz Sibia, Anastasiia Birillo +3

Delft University of Technology Delft, Netherlands · University of Toronto Toronto, Canada · JetBrains Research Belgrade, Serbia +1

Ai-Assisted Programming Tasks Traces Multi-Model Study Impact Analysis

Jun 2, 2026cs.AI

Effect of Demographic Bias on Skin Lesion Classification

In this study, we evaluate the performance of skin lesion classification using ResNet-based convolutional models, focusing on the impact of demographic bias in training data, particularly variations in patient sex and age. We use linear programming to generate datasets with controlled demographic characteristics, allowing systematic investigation of bias effects. Three learning strategies are evaluated: a single-task model, a reinforcing multi-task model, and an adversarial learning scheme. Our sex-based analysis indicates that sex-specific training datasets optimise model performance. Notably, including male patients in the training data improved performance for the male subgroup, even in female-majority cases. Reinforcing and adversarial learning schemes narrowed or eliminated bias gaps in balanced and female-majority datasets. However, these strategies proved less effective in male-majority settings, where models continued to perform better for males than females. The two learning schemes showed marginal bias reduction compared to the baseline model in predominantly male patient populations. Age-based analysis demonstrates comparable baseline performance across the three model approaches, with performance declining across age categories. Younger groups consistently achieve the highest performance, regardless of training data distribution. Although balanced training yields optimal results for the youngest age category, performance decreases in older categories. We find that sex biases arise mainly from data imbalances, while age biases consistently favour younger groups regardless of distribution. These distinct mechanisms require targeted mitigation strategies. Additionally, cross-dataset validation on two external datasets revealed that domain shifts notably affect performance and patterns of demographic bias.

Ralf Raumanns, Gerard Schouten, Veronika Cheplygina +1

Fontys University of Applied Science, Venlo, The Netherlands · Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands · IT University of Copenhagen, Denmark +1

Skin Lesion Classification Impact Analysis

Jun 1, 2026cs.RO

Impact of a Soft Wearable Back-Support Device on Postural Stability during Trip-Like Perturbations

The effectiveness of a soft wearable back-support device in enhancing postural stability was investigated under trip-like perturbations using two experimental paradigms: perturbed standing and perturbed walking. Healthy subjects completed trials under three different back-support conditions: no device, device worn with low stiffness, and device activated with high stiffness. Whole-body stability was quantified using the minimum Margin of Stability (MOS) at the point of maximal instability. Results demonstrated increased MOS during device use, indicating enhanced postural stability. In standing, MOS increased significantly with device stiffness, whereas in walking, both device conditions improved MOS relative to no device but did not differ significantly from each other. These findings highlight the potential of soft wearable back-support devices with adjustable stiffness to improve reactive balance control against external perturbations, with important implications for fall prevention. Future research should explore personalized stiffness optimization and evaluate efficacy in populations at elevated risk of falls.

Yuanhao Chen, Rohan Khatavkar, Soubhagya Nayak +2

School for Engineering of Matter, Transport and Energy, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Impact Analysis Device

Jun 1, 2026stat.ML

Identifiable Markov Switching Models with Instantaneous Effects and Exponential Families

Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of frequent regime switches and nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamics, particularly when there are instantaneous effects between the variables, e.g., due to slow rates of measurements. In this work, we establish the identifiability of both latent regimes and regime-dependent causal structures under temporal regime dependencies, nonlinear lagged and instantaneous effects, and independent noise from the exponential family. Our identifiability theory subsumes non-temporal mixtures of causal models. Furthermore, we introduce FlowMSM, a regime detection framework that can be paired with any stationary causal discovery method to recover regime-dependent causal structures. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and a financial economics dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to detect latent regimes and discover causal structures from non-stationary time series.

Roel Hulsman, Carles Balsells-Rodas, Sara Magliacane

University of Amsterdam · 2Adyen · 3Imperial College London +1

Causal Discovery Methods Identifiability Non-Stationarity Exponential Family Impact Analysis

Jun 1, 2026cs.AI

Revisiting Ripple Effects in Knowledge Editing through Pressure-Aware Joint Neighborhood Optimization

Single-edit updates in large language models can trigger ripple effects across local knowledge neighborhoods: desirable propagation to related facts and unintended perturbation of preserved ones. Existing methods address these two effects separately, without explicitly modeling their coupling. We challenge this separation through an analysis of ripple responses across typical baselines, identifying two coupled design pressures: editable-side coordination and preserved-side leakage. We propose Joint Neighborhood Optimization (JNO), a new knowledge-editing framework to formalize and jointly address both pressures at the target-planning stage. JNO instantiates this principle through Pressure-Aware Coordination (PAC), which jointly optimizes neighborhood target representations under coupled constraints, and a semantic pre-execution gate that rejects high-risk target plans before parameter execution. Experiments on RippleEdits show JNO improves propagation and preservation metrics by at least 7.0% while preserving cross-backbone editing stability.

Haoben Huang, Shuxin Liu, Ou Wu +1

Hangzhou Institute for Advanced Study, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou, China · College of Information Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China

Multimodal Knowledge Editing Cross-Task Knowledge Transfer Latent Feature Interventions Reasoning Gaps Impact Analysis Responses

May 31, 2026stat.ME

Topological Ignorability for Structural Causal Effects Beyond Means

Many interventions alter the structure of an outcome distribution rather than its mean: they can split a population into disconnected regimes, create loops or holes, generate branches, or reorganize an outcome cloud while leaving the average response nearly unchanged. In such settings, mean-based causal estimands such as the average treatment effect may miss important structural effects. We introduce topological-geometrical causal metrics based on summaries of interventional outcome laws, including density-superlevel Betti summaries, Euler signatures, and persistent-homology summaries. These metrics quantify structural differences between treated and untreated outcome laws beyond averages. We also study the assumptions needed for causal interpretation. We introduce topological ignorability, a topological analogue of conditional ignorability that requires invariance of the chosen structural feature rather than the full counterfactual distribution. When the chosen summary is injective, this condition coincides with weak ignorability; for noninjective summaries, it can identify the structural feature of interest without identifying the full interventional law. We define a covariate-standardized topological-geometrical causal effect and develop practical estimators. We validate the framework in two hidden-confounding benchmarks: a fully synthetic exact benchmark and a real-covariate semi-synthetic benchmark using Wisconsin breast-cancer covariates. In both, weak ignorability fails and balancing observed covariates nearly eliminates standardized mean differences, yet the coordinate-mean average treatment effect remains biased. By contrast, selected finite density-superlevel Betti and Euler contrasts remain stable across oracle, observational, and weighted analyses.

Usef Faghihi

∗Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR).

Causal Inferences Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Topology Impact Analysis

May 30, 2026cs.SD

Sympatheia: Emotionally Adaptive Voice Assistant with Continuous Affect Conditioning

Empathetic spoken dialogue systems must infer a user's emotional state to respond appropriately, yet everyday speech often carries weak, neutral, or ambiguous affective cues. To address this, we introduce Sympatheia, a speech-to-speech dialogue framework conditioned on affect inferred from the user's speech and, when available, explicit affect specifications provided as a continuous valence--arousal (VA) control signal by a multimodal sensing module or user interface. To train our model, we construct Sympatheia-18k, an emotion-conditioned synthetic spoken dialogue corpus with 12 emotion anchors. This dataset includes an emotional split for learning affective speech behavior, and a neutral split that pairs emotionally neutral queries with multiple emotion-conditioned responses to isolate explicit emotion control in emotionally ambiguous cases. Empirical results show that Sympatheia outperforms speech conversational baselines in generating responses whose semantic content and spoken delivery are both emotionally appropriate. We further show that the same VA interface can integrate emotion estimates from diverse sensing modules, including facial expression, biosignals, and textual affect descriptions, improving response alignment when speech alone provides limited emotional evidence. These results suggest that continuous affect conditioning is an effective practical step for building emotionally adaptive voice assistants.

Sukru Samet Dindar, Riki Shimizu, Xilin Jiang +1

Department of Electrical Engineering Columbia University New York, NY 10025

Speech Synthesis Full-Duplex Voice Agents Emotion Impact Analysis

May 30, 2026econ.EM

Certificates without Electrons? Theory and Evidence on Impacts from AI-Driven Power Demand

Data centers now account for 4.4% of United States electricity demand, yet the grid-level effectiveness of the renewable energy certificates (RECs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs) hyperscalers use to claim carbon neutrality remains unclear. We develop a game-theoretic model in which a data center operator chooses among RECs, PPAs, and behind-the-meter colocation while generators make entry decisions under endogenous financing costs. The model identifies a timing wedge -- the mismatch between consumption and credited renewable generation -- as a central mechanism through which AI demand degrades reliability, raises prices, and increases emissions even when RECs cover 100% of annual consumption. Colocation with storage addresses this wedge directly and induces the greatest renewable entry by eliminating generator revenue risk. We test these predictions by exploiting the staggered release of large language models as a natural experiment, using difference-in-differences on a novel dataset linking AI activity to local grid outcomes. AI demand significantly increases fossil generation, wholesale prices (up to 25% in treated PJM zones), and outage frequency (0.5--1 additional outages per year) near data centers, with impacts scaling in model size. Data centers with on-site generation exhibit a sign reversal in power-quality effects, consistent with the model's prediction that behind-the-meter capacity absorbs demand spikes. Counterfactual analyses show that edge inference, spatial reallocation, and colocated storage each substantially mitigate grid impacts, while REC-only strategies do not. Together, our results demonstrate that the externalities of AI to the grid are tightly coupled to procurement design and the spatial organization of data center infrastructure.

Dana Golden, Aruna Balasubramanian, Niranjan Balasubramanian

Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, 11794, New York, USA · Department of Computer Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, 11794, New York, USA

Data Centers Impact Analysis Certificates Theory

May 30, 2026cs.CL

On the Limits of LLM Adaptability: Impact of Model-Internalized Priors on Annotation Task Performance

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for zero-shot annotation and LLM-as-a-judge tasks, yet their reliability hinges on how model-internalized priors interact with user-provided instructions. We investigate three dimensions of this interaction: (1) how an LLM's familiarity with data and task definitions affects performance, (2) the extent to which additional information in prompts can correct zero-shot errors ("decision stickiness"), and (3) model susceptibility to misaligned task definitions. Through experiments on toxicity detection across diverse datasets (spanning social media, gaming, news, and forums) using both dense and mixture-of-experts models, we find that nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with an overall rescue rate (fraction of initial errors corrected by prompting) of only 34.8%. High-confidence errors prove especially resistant to correction. When given misaligned definitions, LLMs follow them while maintaining confidence levels unchanged from the aligned condition. Crucially, we introduce Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF), which measures alignment between a model's internal concept and the task definition. After controlling for dataset-level confounds, DSF shows a positive association with model performance (partial r = +0.41), while three distinct memorization metrics (ROUGE-L, BERTScore, and embedding cosine similarity) all fail to show a positive association. These findings show the limitations of prompt-based correction in annotation tasks, highlighting the importance of definition alignment over text-level memorization.

Etienne Casanova, Rafal Kocielnik, R. Michael Alvarez

California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.

Large Language Model Annotations Large Language Models Fail Large Language Model Alignment Large Language Model Adaptation Memorization Prior Knowledge Integration+1

May 29, 2026cs.CL

Effects of Varying LLM Access on Essay Writing Behavior

Investigating the degree to which large language models (LLMs) affect teaching and learning in universities can help identify strategies for integrating LLMs in a way that supports, rather than undermines, student learning outcomes. This study examined how varying levels of LLM assistance affect writing performance, engagement, and perceived authorship. We report a pilot study in which 24 college students were randomly assigned to write a short essay with no LLM access, limited access (<=3 prompts, responses capped at 100 words), or unlimited access. Overall essay quality was statistically indistinguishable across groups. Yet writing behavior and perceived authorship diverged sharply: students with limited access reported higher ownership (62.5% would submit the essay as independent work, vs. 25% in the unlimited group), stronger organizational gains, and more strategic, revision-focused prompting. The unlimited group spent more time writing, produced essays more similar to LLM output, and reported reduced creative expression. Our findings suggest that constraining, rather than banning, LLM access may preserve authorship confidence while retaining the scaffolding benefits of AI assistance.

Julia Christenson, Karin de Langis, Shirley Anugrah Hayati +1

University of Minnesota

Writing Authorship Agent Behavior Modeling Impact Analysis

May 29, 2026cs.HC

Personalized to Persuade: The Effects of Contextualization and Warmth on Trust and Reliance in Conversational AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents personalize their responses by tailoring explanations to users' backgrounds, interests, and prior interactions, referred to as contextualization. Personalization has been identified as a persuasive strategy in politics or in marketing. However, the persuasive effect of contextualization in everyday tasks, where users often lack prior knowledge, remains unclear. We conducted a

2\times2

between-subjects experiment (

N = 380

) examining how contextualization, combined with conversational warmth, shapes reliance and persuasiveness of an AI assistant arguing against expert recommendations. Our findings reveal that contextualization reduces the persuasive power of AI, but its combination with warmth restores persuasiveness through a crossover interaction. Reliance on AI is present across conditions and is invariant to the conversational design. Trust strongly predicts both persuasion and reliance, yet neither contextualization nor warmth operates through trust. AI literacy decouples trust from behavior: more literate users report lower trust in the assistant, yet are more persuaded and more reliant on its advice. These results suggest that users are prone to deferring to AI agents over human expert judgment; however, interface-level conversational design choices have a limited role in shaping the behavior.

Mert Yazan, Suzan Verberne, Frederik Bungaran Ishak Situmeang

Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences Amsterdam, Netherlands · University of Leiden Leiden, Netherlands

Persuasion Artificial Intelligence Literacy AI Trustworthiness Personalization Human Judgment Impact Analysis

May 29, 2026cs.HC

EMORSION: Examining the Impact of Audio Parameters on Emotional Responses and Immersion in Film

EMORSION is an exploratory proof-of-concept study examining how film audio design shapes audience emotion and immersion in acinema setting. Four film scenes were selected across the horror (2) and drama (2) genres, balanced between mainstream and independent productions. For each scene, multiple alternative audio mixes were created by systematically manipulating three core aspects of audio design, frequency (pitch), dynamics (loudness), and directionality (spatial placement). Three audience groups viewed the scenes, with each group exposed to one manipulated mix alongside a control mix for each scene. Audience responses were assessed through a triangulated multimodal framework combining self-reported emotion and immersion via a questionnaire, physiological measures including heart rate monitoring, and video-based motion tracking. The protocol successfully captured measurable, interpretable differences across audio conditions, indicating that even subtle changes in audio design can shape emotional perception and immersion. Unconventional mixes tended to produce greater variability in audience interpretation, while conventional immersive mixes were associated with stronger cross-audience agreement. These findings establish the feasibility of the EMORSION protocol and motivate larger-scale studies to characterise the role of specific audio parameters in shaping audience experience.

Nelly Garcia, Ruby Crocker, Bleiz M Del Sette +4

Queen Mary University of London

Audience Immersion Emotional Regulation Impact Analysis

May 29, 2026cs.IR

On the impact of retrieved content representations in RAG Pipelines

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) supplements a language model's input with retrieved documents, yet most RAG pipelines inherit retrieval components designed for human readers. How retrieved content should be represented when the consumer is a large language model (LLM) rather than a human is less well understood. Recent work has proposed transformations of retrieved content and identified properties that affect generation, but each examines a single transformation or property in isolation, leaving open which features of a document's representation matter most. We address this with a controlled comparison: holding retrieval fixed, we vary only the representation of retrieved documents, comparing an original baseline against thirteen transformations spanning selection, summarisation, and reformulation, in query-dependent and query-independent variants. Across these fourteen representations we measure question-answering accuracy for four generators, and for each representation we also measure answer retention: whether a known answer-bearing document still supports its answer after transformation. We find that answer retention is the primary determinant of generator accuracy; notably, when retention is high, a representation's wording, structure, length, and query-dependence have limited effect. This suggests that accuracy gains attributed to specific mechanisms in prior work may be partly explained by how well those mechanisms preserve answer-bearing content, an attribution that cannot be settled without controlling for retention.

Jonathan J Ross, Bevan Koopman, Anton van der Vegt +1

The University of Queensland · CSIRO / The University of Queensland

Retrieval-Augmented Generation Pipelines Answer Impact Analysis

May 29, 2026cs.DL

ReviewGuard: Aligning LLM-Assisted Peer Review with Long-Term Scientific Impact

Peer review is central to scientific quality control, yet it can undervalue papers that later achieve substantial citation impact. While frontier large language models have shown promise in automating aspects of peer review, they primarily mimic human reviewer preferences rather than predict long-term scientific value. We introduce ReviewGuard, a two-stage framework that aligns LLM-generated reviews with citation-based estimates of long-term scientific impact rather than contemporaneous reviewer judgments. On 20,861 AI/ML papers from OpenReview augmented with Semantic Scholar citation data, ReviewGuard achieves a Spearman correlation of \r{ho} = 0.776 with future citations on rejected-then-published papers, outperforming human reviewers (\r{ho} = 0.492) and a supervised Expert model (\r{ho} = 0.681). Under the same decision threshold, ReviewGuard flags 10.2% of high-impact rejected papers, compared with 1.8% for human reviewers, corresponding to a 5.6x improvement. Our results demonstrate that impact-aligned reinforcement learning can provide editors with a complementary signal for identifying high-potential work, without replacing human judgment.

Abdur Rasool, Xiaohui Huang, Yanqing Hu +1

Department of Statistics and Data Science Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen 518055, China

Peer Review Reviewer Review Citations Impact Analysis Value Alignment

May 28, 2026cs.AI

It`s All About Speed: AI`s Impact on Workflow in Music Production

In this paper, we present the results of an ethnographic study into the impact of AI and automated tools on music production workflow. Focusing specifically on professional participants who identified as recording engineers, mixers, and producers, we discuss their usage of common AI and automated software, as well as their sentiments on the proliferation of these tools. We discuss tensions that may be created between users and automated tools in key areas such as the need for speed and efficiency, controllability, and maintaining creative agency, and how these tensions may be alleviated through tool design.

Finn McClellan, Fabio Morreale

Waipapa Taumata Rau - University of Auckland, Auckland (Aotearoa - New Zealand) · Sony AI, Barcelona (Spain)

Artistic Ownership Artificial Intelligence Systems Agentic Workflow Design Creativity Impact Analysis Speeds

May 28, 2026cs.CL

Predicting Causal Effects from Natural Language Queries using Structured Representations

Randomized controlled trials are a cornerstone of medicine and the social sciences as they enable reliable estimates of causal effects. However, they are costly and time-consuming to conduct, motivating interest in predicting causal effects from existing experimental evidence. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on knowledge-intensive tasks, raising the question of whether these models can be used for forecasting causal effect sizes. To investigate this, we introduce Query2Effect, a new large-scale benchmark consisting of more than 72,000 natural language questions aligned with experiment descriptions, created to simulate realistic information-seeking scenarios by varying query specificity along dimensions of implicitness, abstraction, and ambiguity. We then propose a two-step framework that first generates a synthetic structured representation of a query before predicting effect size using a supervised encoder model. Experiments show that finetuning plays a crucial role in improving prediction performance, with absolute error reducing by -27% up to -71% compared to prompted out-of-the-box LLMs, and that our two-step framework is beneficial for out-of-domain generalization, highlighting the benefits of separating semantic interpretation from numerical effect estimation.

Giuliano Martinelli, Piriyakorn Piriyatamwong, Abelardo Carlos Martinez Lorenzo +7

1The World Bank Group · University of Oxford · 3New York University

Causal Inferences Effect Sizes Natural Language Impact Analysis

May 28, 2026cs.LG

Why Larger Models Learn More: Effects of Capacity, Interference, and Rare-Task Retention

Larger models learn tasks smaller models do not. What drives this phenomenon? We develop a simple phenomenological argument that power-law scaling already suggests that a larger model will be able to learn a part of the data distribution that a smaller model fails to learn, even with infinite training data. To validate this claim and identify its causes, we study the effects of model scaling on a synthetic setup consisting of a mixture of tasks that show monotonic scaling curves. The results point to a data-induced competition over resources (neurons). Specifically, smaller models allocate their neurons to high frequency or low complexity tasks, and so they learn solutions that perform poorly on rare and complex tasks. Moreover, this happens even when solutions capable of expressing the desired task exist. We then assess how a larger model circumvents this data-centric bottleneck, finding that it traces to a reduced interference mechanism: larger models can allocate enough resources to common tasks that the gradient updates for those tasks become weak, which means that they do not overwrite rare-task features as they slowly accumulate. Finally, to further validate these claims, we pretrain OLMo models (4M to 4B parameters) on novel tasks of varying frequency and complexity. The results mirror those from our synthetic data experiments: only the larger OLMo models learn the infrequent and complex tasks, and these larger models embed more task features in their representations and show less gradient interference between tasks. Overall, we offer a data-centric account of why larger models learn tasks that smaller models fail to. This helps explain why larger models are better in practice, and it can inform practical questions concerning model sizing and training data mixtures.

Jing Huang, Daniel Wurgaft, Rachit Bansal +6

Stanford University · Kempner Institute at Harvard University · MIT +1

Model Size Capacity Scaling Interference Impact Analysis

May 27, 2026cs.NE

A Fresh Look at Lamarckian Evolution and the Baldwin Effect

Baldwinian and Lamarckian evolution have existed for a long time in evolutionary algorithms (EAs) without ever dominating the academic literature or practical applications. In this work, we use modern empirical and theoretical methods to revisit Lamarckian and Baldwinian evolution and rigorously compare them with the generic Darwinian evolution. On the empirical side, we run a comprehensive suite of experiments on graphs from six different datasets from the recent GraphBench benchmark on Maximum Independent Set and Maximum Cut problems. Our results show that Baldwinian and Lamarckian evolution consistently outperform Darwinian evolution, confirming the great potential of local search augmented evolutionary algorithms. Notably, in the great majority of cases, all EAs outperform recent deep learning baselines and approach the performance of highly specialised heuristic and exact solvers. We furthermore report a high-performing set of generalist parameters for all studied evolution types that we hope will be of use to practitioners in future. On the theoretical side, we extend the existing DeceptiveLeadingBlocks benchmark to arbitrary block length

k

. For all constant

k

, we then prove asymptotically tight runtime bounds for the

(1+1)

EA in the three evolution types on this benchmark. For Baldwinian evolution, these are independent of

k

, whereas for the other two evolution types, the runtimes steeply increase with growing value of

k

.

Inès Benito, Johannes F. Lutzeyer, Benjamin Doerr

Laboratoire d’Informatique (LIX), CNRS, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France

Genetic Algorithms Evolutionary Optimization Methods Maximum Independent Set Impact Analysis

May 27, 2026cs.HC

AI in the Workplace: The Impact of AI on Perceived Job Decency and Meaningfulness

The proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in workplaces is transforming how we work. While existing research on human-AI collaboration at work often prioritizes performance, less is known about their experiential outcomes. Through interviews with 24 employees across Information Technology (IT), service-based, and healthcare sectors, this paper examines AI's impact on job satisfaction via perceptions of job decency and meaningfulness, now and in the future. Our results reveal that the anticipated impact of AI on overall job satisfaction varies with the occupational domain, with differing perceptions of its underlying decency and meaningfulness. For instance, IT and healthcare anticipate increased satisfaction with decency aspects like working hours but decreased satisfaction with meaningfulness aspects like social image due to misconceptions about AI handling most of their tasks. Conversely, service workers foresee no improvement in their working hours but a higher social standing due to the perceived status boost associated with working with AI.

Kuntal Ghosh, Marc Hassenzahl, Shadan Sadeghian

University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany

Impact Analysis

May 27, 2026cs.IR

Whose Name Comes Up? III: Persona Prompting Effects in LLM-Based Scholar Recommendation

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as scholar recommenders, shaping who is seen as an expert in academia. Existing audits remain English-centric, single discipline, and persona-agnostic, leaving the source of output variability poorly understood. To this end, we propose a benchmark that disentangles the effects of model choice and prompt design on recommendations. We audit 43 LLMs by varying persona prompts (language, location, role-and-task) and context (field, seniority, k). Recommended scholars are compared against Semantic Scholar over six scientific disciplines to measure technical quality (factuality, coverage) and social representativeness (diversity, parity). Basic technical quality is driven by model choice, factuality and parity by context, and diversity by location. South Africa prompts yield less factual lists, while Japan prompts yield highly factual but homogeneous lists skewed toward highly productive scholars. Prompt design is thus a non-trivial axis of LLM-based scholar discovery and should be systematically audited alongside model choice.

Annabella Sánchez-Guzmán, Lukas Eberhard, Denis Helic +1

Escuela Superior Polit´ecnica del Litoral · Graz University of Technology · Complexity Science Hub

Scholar Information Database Impact Analysis

May 26, 2026stat.ML

Calibrated Inference for the Conditional Average Treatment Effect in the Few-Placebo Regime via Gaussian Processes

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by a calibrated uncertainty interval. We study the few-placebo regime, in which one treatment arm is much smaller than the other, as arises in unequal-allocation trials and small-holdout

A/B

tests. The standard estimator in this setting is the X-Learner, and a natural way to obtain credible intervals is to make its second stage Bayesian. We show that these intervals under-cover: they contain the true effect less often than their nominal level. We trace this to a structural cause the X-Learner's regression target inherits the bias of a nuisance model fitted to the small arm, so the posterior is centered away from the true effect and we find that the standard remedy, regressing an orthogonal doubly-robust score, is also unreliable here, since the regime's limited overlap leaves the estimator either highly variable or, once stabilized, biased once more. Both consequences reflect a pattern that extends beyond causal inference: a separately estimated variance is attached to a point estimate of a hard-to-learn quantity, and the point estimate's bias is not captured by that variance. We propose GP-CATE, which models each arm's outcome surface with a Gaussian process, so the scarce arm's uncertainty enters the posterior directly rather than as an unmodelled bias. Across synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks, GP-CATE attains calibrated coverage where the estimators we compare against including Causal Forest and BART do not, at the cost of intervals that are appropriately wide when the data are uninformative.

Eichi Uehara

AFLO

Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Causal Inferences Confidence Intervals Calibrated Uncertainty Controlled Study Gaussian Process+1

May 26, 2026cs.LG

On the Error-Correcting Effects of Stochasticity in Discrete Diffusion

Discrete diffusion models achieve strong performance in text and image generation, but their inference remains slow and must inherently balance sampling efficiency and sample quality. In this work, we present a systematic study of how the \emph{degree of stochasticity} in Markov transitions governs the sampling tradeoff. We show that highly deterministic transitions converge rapidly but suffer from error accumulation, while more stochastic transitions converge more slowly yet can achieve higher final sample quality. Using an information-theoretic analysis, we identify the underlying mechanism as an error-correcting effect induced by \emph{redundant transitions} that symmetrically exchange mass between states, and show that these transitions can provably contract sampling errors. Motivated by this analysis, we propose \emph{Discrete Churn and Restart Sampling} (DCRS), a novel inference algorithm that injects controlled stochasticity by alternating between forward and reverse diffusion processes. Experiments on synthetic datasets and large-scale benchmarks show that DCRS improves the speed-quality tradeoff in the low number of function evaluations regime. On image datasets, DCRS achieves up to a

10\times

reduction in sampling steps compared to standard samplers while maintaining competitive sample quality, whereas on language benchmarks, we observe more nuanced behavior depending on the corruption process and sampling procedure.

William Yuan, Sungwon Jeong, Amirali Aghazadeh

Georgia Institute of Technology

Diffusion Sampling Diffusion Models Stochastic Transitions Correction Impact Analysis

May 26, 2026cs.CV

The Rescue Effect: Spatio-Semantic Early Exit Bypasses Quantization Collapse in CLIP

Deploying Vision-Language Models on resource-constrained hardware typically requires INT8 quantization, but in joint-embedding architectures such as CLIP this introduces a failure mode distinct from quantized CNN classifiers: activation noise accumulated across transformer blocks perturbs the direction of the multimodal embedding, eroding the cosine alignment on which zero-shot retrieval depends. We characterize this as Quantization-Induced Representation Collapse (QIRC) and quantify it on INT8 CLIP ViT-B/32, where the layer-wise noise-to-signal ratio grows from below 10% in shallow blocks to 52% at Layer 11. We propose LRA-EE (Layer-wise Representation-Aware Early Exit), which bypasses noise-saturated deep layers via Spatio-Semantic Aggregation (replacing the immature shallow [CLS] with a global patch-token average), a learned multi-feature gate (confidence, top-2 margin, spatial-activation variance), and Layer-adaptive Confidence Thresholding calibrated to each layer's Information-to-Noise Ratio. On ImageNet-1K zero-shot classification, LRA-EE reduces FLOPs by 13.4% and improves Top-1 accuracy by +2.44%p (58.72% -> 61.16%) over the INT8 baseline. A four-quadrant decomposition isolates the Rescue Effect: 9.5% of samples are correctly classified at shallow exits but lost to noise at full depth, against only 7.1% suffering the inverse.

Kahyeon Nam, Hyesong Choi

Soongsil University Seoul, Republic of Korea

Frozen Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training Visual Encoder Quantized Layer-Wise Imagenet Signal-To-Noise Ratio Impact Analysis

May 25, 2026cs.CV

CollectionLoRA: Collecting 50 Effects in 1 LoRA via Multi-Teacher On-Policy Distillation

Customized image editing aims to equip pre-trained diffusion models with specific visual effects using limited paired data, typically via Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). As the number of desired effects grows, storing and dynamically loading numerous these effect LoRAs significantly increases deployment overhead. Furthermore, current pipelines typically cascade these effect LoRAs with acceleration modules for fast generation, which triggers severe parameter interference and results in concept bleeding and style degradation. We propose CollectionLoRA, a multi-teacher on-policy distillation framework capable of distilling the concepts of up to 50 different effect LoRAs along with few-step generation capabilities into a single LoRA. This fundamentally resolves the feature interference issue and significantly reduces deployment costs. Specifically, the method introduces (i) a Probabilistic Dual-Stream Routing mechanism that enables the model to randomly switch between data sources during training, effectively enhancing its generalization in unseen scenarios; (ii) an Asymmetric Orthogonal Prompting strategy to achieve concept isolation within the prompt space; (iii) a Coarse-to-Fine Distillation Objective to mitigate the distribution gap between the teacher and student models. Extensive evaluations show that CollectionLoRA distills all customized effects and few-step generation into a single LoRA, reducing deployment overhead while achieving concept fidelity comparable to or better than independently trained teacher models. Code: https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/CollectionLoRA

Fangtai Wu, Hailong Guo, Shijie Huang +7

Zhejiang University · Qwen Applications Business Group of Alibaba · Xi’an Jiaotong University

Multi-Lora Training-Side Stage-Aware Low-Rank Adaptation Few-Step Generation Image Editing Impact Analysis

May 24, 2026cs.CV

From Affect to Complex Behavior: Advancing Multimodal Human-Centered AI at the 10th ABAW Workshop & Competition

The 10th Affective & Behavior Analysis in-the-Wild (ABAW) Workshop and Competition, held at CVPR 2026, continues to advance research on modelling, analysis, understanding of human affect and behavior in real-world, unconstrained environments. The workshop maintains its dual structure, comprising both a competition and a paper track. The ABAW Competition introduces a diverse set of challenges targeting key aspects of affective and behavioral understanding, including continuous affect (valence-arousal) estimation, discrete affect (expression and action unit) recognition, as well as more complex behavior analysis tasks, such as emotional mimicry intensity estimation, ambivalence/hesitancy recognition and fine-grained violence detection. These challenges are built upon large-scale in-the-wild datasets, providing comprehensive benchmarks for state-of-the-art approaches. In parallel, the paper track presents a wide range of contributions spanning pose, motion & behavior estimation, affect modelling & multimodal learning, benchmarks, datasets & evaluation protocols, fairness, robustness & deployment. Overall, the 10th ABAW Workshop and Competition continues to serve as a key platform for benchmarking, collaboration and innovation, shaping the development of next-generation multimodal, human-centered AI systems.

Dimitrios Kollias, Panagiotis Tzirakis, Alan Cowen +10

Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), UK · Hume AI, USA · Google Deepmind, USA +7

Affective Computing Emotion Recognition Cvpr Human Agency Impact Analysis

May 24, 2026cs.LG

On the Impact of Class Imbalance on the Learning Dynamics of Deep Neural Networks:An Intuitive Insight

Class imbalance in deep neural networks (DNNs) has witnessed a rapid increase in research attention in recent years. However, the varying accounts of the reasons behind the poor performance of DNN on imbalance data in pertinent literature shows that little is known about how this agelong phenomenon impacts the performance of DNNs. A better understanding of this problem is crucial to developing effective DNN-based imbalance methods. Thus, this study systematically investigates the impact of class imbalance on the learning dynamics of DNN by monitoring the learning pattern of DNN models on both the majority and minority classes of datasets of varying imbalance ratios. Experimental findings shows that as against learning from balanced datasets where DNN learns the classes similarly, class imbalance has severe deteriorating impact on the performance of DNN, driving the model to underfit the minority class samples in the early training epochs while simultaneously learning only the majority class. Although DNN ultimately learns the minority samples, learning in this manner only results in learnt minority representations that are non-generalizable at test phase because they are merely overfitted to keep the overall training loss as low as possible.

Ismail B. Mustapha, Shafaatunnur Hasan, Sunday O. Olatunji +1

Faculty of Computing Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Johor, Malaysia · Faculty of Computing Adejkunle Ajasin University Akungba-Akoko, Nigeria

Imbalanced Classification Class Imbalance Learning Dynamics Minority Impact Analysis Intuition

May 23, 2026cs.CL

The Tokenizer Tax Across 25 European Languages: Domain Invariance, Cross-Lingual Few-Shot Effects, and the Ukrainian Penalty

Tokenizer fertility the number of tokens per word imposes a hidden cost on non-English NLP. We measure fertility for ten foundation models across 25 European languages on parallel text, producing the first controlled tokenizer tax map for the continent. The tax spans 2.5x from English (1.2 tokens/word) to Greek/Maltese (~3.1), following a clear hierarchy: Romance (1.5-1.7), Germanic (1.7-1.9), Slavic (2.2-2.5), Uralic/Baltic (2.7-3.0). Ukrainian (2.7) pays 15-18% more than cognate Slavic languages, reflecting underrepresentation in pre-training data. Fertility rankings are domain-invariant across three text registers (rho > 0.97). A subword analysis reveals that high-fertility tokenizers fragment morphological boundaries rather than preserving them. Cross-lingual few-shot evaluation on four Slavic languages shows that few-shot effects are model-intrinsic, not language-dependent. We release all measurements as a public dataset.

Volodymyr Ovcharov

LEX AI Platform, legal.org.ua · Kyiv, Ukraine

Subword Tokenization Natural Language Processing Domain Invariance Impact Analysis

May 23, 2026cs.LG

Treatment Effect Estimation with Differentiated Networked Effect on Graph Data

Estimating individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational graph data is crucial for decision-making in the fields such as commerce and medicine. This task is challenging due to interference, where individual outcomes can be influenced by the treatments and covariates of their neighbors. Existing methods attempt to model such interference for accurate ITE estimation. However, a critical issue is often overlooked: differentiated networked effect (DNE), an effect caused by local networks consisting of neighbors with varying importance and scales. Capturing DNE is vital; otherwise, we will end up with imprecise ITE estimation due to an erroneous characterization of interference, which can result in misguided decisions. To address this challenge, we propose a novel interference modeling mechanism that incorporates two partial attention mechanisms and a message amplifier. The partial attention mechanisms automatically estimate the importance of different neighbors in contributing to interference, while the message amplifier adjusts the results of the interference modeling mechanism based on the scale of neighbors, all of which enables the model to capture DNE. Experiments on three real-world graphs demonstrate that our methods outperform existing approaches for ITE estimation from graph data, which corroborates the importance of explicitly capturing DNE.

Xiaofeng Lin, Han Bao, Hisashi Kashima

Kyoto University Kyoto, Japan · The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo, Japan · Tohoku University Sendai, Japan +1

Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Graph Representations Impact Analysis Linear Attention

May 22, 2026cs.RO

Investigating the Effect of a Series Elastic Actuation Retrofit to Black-Box Actuators

In robotic applications, actuators are typically designed to be stiff with minimal backlash to ensure precision and repeatability. However, this limits compliance, leading to potential damage and poor force control in uncertain environments. Series Elastic Actuation (SEA) introduces compliance to enhance disturbance rejection and enable force measurement via Hooke's Law but reduces system bandwidth. A custom Series Elastic (SE) element was retrofitted to a black-box actuator to mitigate non-linearities like backlash and static friction. Integrating the SE element enabled high-fidelity force measurements, improving force control bandwidth and performance. A torsional SE element was designed through Finite Element (FE) analysis, yielding a stiffness of 2155.4 Nm/rad. Open-loop force control bandwidth was measured for the original motor and the SEA-integrated configuration, while closed-loop bandwidth was assessed using feedback from the SEA and a commercial force sensor. The SEA module increased bandwidth from 10.32 Hz to 30.32 Hz, a 2.93X improvement. Additionally, it outperformed the commercial sensor by 7.63% despite costing 25 GBP, a fraction of the price.

Ivan Tregear, Ayhan Aktas, Ferdinando Rodriguez y Baena

Imperial College London, Mechanical Engineering Department, UK · KAIKAKU.AI, London, N1 6NG, UK · Imperial College London, Mechanical Engineering Department, SW7 2AZ, UK

Soft Pneumatic Actuators Actuator Black Box Impact Analysis

May 21, 2026cs.AI

AMEL: Accumulated Message Effects on LLM Judgments

Large language models are routinely used as automated evaluators: to review code, moderate content, or score outputs, often with many items passing through one conversation. We ask whether the polarity of prior conversation history biases subsequent judgments, an effect we call the accumulated message effect on LLM judgments (AMEL). Across 84,088 API calls to 12 models from 5 providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and four open-source models), we present identical test items in isolation or following histories saturated with predominantly positive or negative evaluations. Models shift toward the conversation's prevailing polarity (d = -0.17, p < 10^-53). The effect concentrates on items where the model is genuinely uncertain at baseline (d = -0.36 for high-entropy items, vs d = -0.15 when the baseline is deterministic). Bias does not grow with context length: 5 prior turns and 50 produce the same shift (Spearman |r| < 0.01; OLS slope p = 0.80). And there is a negativity asymmetry: paired per item, negative histories induce 1.52x more bias than positive (t = 13.03, p < 10^-36, n = 2,733). Scaling helps but does not solve it (Anthropic: Haiku -0.22 to Opus -0.17; OpenAI: Nano -0.34 to GPT-5.2 -0.17). Three follow-ups narrow the mechanism. The token probability distribution shifts continuously, not at a threshold. The negativity asymmetry has both token-level and semantic components, though attributing the balance is exploratory at our sample sizes. Position does not matter: five biased turns anywhere in a 50-turn history produce the same shift. The simplest fix for evaluation pipelines is a fresh context per item; when batching is unavoidable, balancing the history helps.

Sid-Ali Temkit

Large Language Model Bias Large Language Model Judges Impact Analysis Accumulation

May 21, 2026cs.NI

Impact of Atmospheric Turbulence and Pointing Error on Earth Observation

Earth Observation (EO) imagery is often degraded by atmospheric turbulence and pointing jitter; yet, these effects are rarely considered in datasets used to train AI-based detection models. Based on prior work, this paper presents an enhanced image simulator that enables the incorporation of vertical-path atmospheric turbulence and satellite pointing jitter, arising from platform and sensor vibrations, to generate physically realistic distorted images. As a case study, vessel detection is evaluated using YOLOv8 and RetinaNet on images generated by the proposed simulator under different levels of turbulence and pointing errors. Results show that YOLOv8 recall decreases from 91% under ideal conditions to 60% in the presence of weak turbulence, and falls below 40% under strong turbulence or jitter. In contrast, RetinaNet demonstrates greater robustness, maintaining approximately 75% recall across degraded conditions. These results highlight the importance of incorporating realistic physical degradations into EO training datasets to ensure reliable performance of AI-based models in operational environments, as demonstrated in maritime surveillance applications.

Celia Sánchez-de-Miguel, Antonio M. Mercado-Martínez, Beatriz Soret +2

TELMA, University of Malaga Malaga, Spain

Earth Observation Ship Detection Global Navigation Satellite System Impact Analysis

May 19, 2026cs.CV

AffectVerse: Emotional World Models for Multimodal Affective Computing

Humans infer emotions by integrating observed multimodal cues with expectations about how affective states may unfold. Existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs), however, often treat emotion recognition as static fusion over complete audiovisual-text inputs, leaving affective dynamics implicit. We propose AffectVerse, a Qwen2.5-Omni-based model equipped with an Emotion World Module (EWM), an action-free representation-level module for short-horizon latent affective prediction. \rev{EWM contains three modules: 1) Cross-Modal Temporal Imagination predicts future video/audio representations from past tokens with multi-step rollout. 2) MAMA(Modality-Aware Multi-step Attention) Belief Aggregation compresses imagined tokens into modality-aware belief tokens. 3) Belief Injection inserts these belief tokens into the LLM for affective reasoning.} AffectVerse uses future prediction as a past-conditioned self-supervised signal: it does not replace modeling observed history or require unseen signals at inference, but forces the current belief state to encode transition cues that are predictive of subsequent affective change. Across nine benchmarks, AffectVerse improves at least 2.57% over other models, while controlled ablations show additive gains from temporal imagination, cross-modal rollout, and belief aggregation. These results suggest predictive belief-state modeling is a practical alternative for affective computing.

Bo Zhao, Fanghua Ye, Yixin Ji +3

1Great Bay University · 2Tencent · 3Tsinghua University +1

Affective Computing Impact Analysis

May 19, 2026cs.AI

GroupAffect-4: A Multimodal Dataset of Four-Person Collaborative Interaction

Existing affective-computing, social-signal-processing, and meeting corpora capture important parts of human interaction, but they rarely support analysis of affect in co-located groups as a coupled individual, interpersonal, and group-level process. The required signals (per-participant physiology, eye movement, audio, self-report, task outcomes, and personality) are usually fragmented across separate dataset traditions. We introduce GroupAffect-4, a multimodal corpus of 40 participants in 10 four-person groups, each completing four ecologically varied collaborative tasks spanning information pooling, negotiation, idea generation, and a public-goods game. Each participant is instrumented with a wrist-worn physiology sensor, eye-tracking glasses, and a close-talk microphone; sessions include continuous affect self-reports, post-task questionnaires, task outcomes, and Big-Five personality scores, all time-aligned to a shared clock. The dataset covers over 91% of expected physiology windows and 98% of eye-tracking windows, with strong task validity confirmed by a clear affective manipulation check across the negotiation block. We define fifteen benchmarkable targets spanning three analysis levels -- within-person state, between-person traits, and group dynamics -- and report leave-one-group-out feasibility baselines establishing the dataset's evaluative scope. GroupAffect-4 is released with a BIDS-inspired structure, Croissant metadata, a datasheet, per-session quality reports, and open processing scripts. Code and processing scripts are available at https://github.com/meisamjam/GroupAffect-4; the dataset is publicly archived at https://zenodo.org/records/20037847.

Meisam Jamshidi Seikavandi, Alice Modica, Anna Obara +10

GN Advanced Science, GN Group, Ballerup, Denmark · IT University of Copenhagen, brAIn lab, Copenhagen, Denmark · Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen, Denmark +1

Affective Computing Multimodal Dataset Collaboration Eye Tracking Personality Text Corpora+1

May 19, 2026cs.CL

K-Quantization and its Impact on Output Performance

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown their remarkable capacities in many NLP tasks. However, their substantial size often presents challenges for deployment. This necessitates efficient techniques for model compression, with quantization emerging as a prominent solution. Despite its benefits, the exact impact of quantization (from 2- to 6-bit) on the performance and accuracy of LLMs remains an active area of research. This paper investigates the performance of eight LLMs at various quantization levels, focusing on tasks such as MMLU-Pro for knowledge processing and reasoning, CRUXEval for code comprehension, and MuSR for reading comprehension. Our results show a consistent trend where higher precision (e.g., 8-bit Q8_0) yields improved performance, albeit with diminishing returns. Aggressive quantization (e.g., 2-bit Q2_K) usually retains acceptable accuracy, though some models show a substantial loss in performance. Our findings indicate that while lower bit precision generally reduces performance, the impact varies across models and tasks. Larger models show greater resilience to aggressive quantization, but can still undergo significant drops at lower precision levels. Mid-sized models in the 7-9 billion parameter range strike an optimal balance between efficiency and resource usage. Such results provide insights into the trade-offs between model size, quantization, and performance.

Robin Baki Davidsson, Pierre Nugues

Lund University · Lund, Sweden

Large Language Model Quantization Mmlu-Pro Impact Analysis

May 19, 2026cs.LG

The Silent Hyperparameter: Quantifying the Impact of Inference Backends on LLM Reproducibility

Progress in LLMs is increasingly measured through standardized benchmarks, where state-of-the-art improvements are often separated by fractions of a percentage point. At the same time, the computational cost of evaluating modern LLMs has driven widespread adoption of specialized inference backends, software systems that execute trained models efficiently at inference time. While critical for scalability, system-level optimizations, such as custom CUDA kernels and reduced-precision arithmetic, can alter token probabilities and introduce non-determinism, possibly cascading into divergent generation. In this work, we first survey the inference landscape, identifying 200 distinct engines, and analyze 35,000 ML publications, finding that the specific inference stack is rarely reported despite this widespread diversity. We then present a systematic empirical study of how inference backends affect LLM benchmark results. Holding model weights, decoding parameters, and hardware constant, we evaluate five widely used inference engines, including vLLM, SGLang, and llama

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cpp, across multiple open-weight models and established benchmarks. We show that the choice of backend alone can shift benchmark scores by up to 16.6 percentage points and induce high rates of output disagreement. By isolating backend optimizations and tracing the execution pipeline, we find this divergence is driven by system-level optimizations like prefix caching and CUDA graphs, custom kernels, and engine-specific defaults in logit processing. Our findings identify the inference backend as a previously unreported but consequential hyperparameter in the evaluation of LLM and advocate standardized reporting of inference stacks to improve the reproducibility and interpretability of benchmark comparisons.

David Pape, Jonathan Evertz, Lea Schönherr

CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Saarbrücken, Germany

Large Language Model Benchmarks LLM Inference Optimization Hyperparameter Cuda Impact Analysis

May 19, 2026cs.CV

Robust Mitigation of Age-Dependent Confounding Effects via Sample-Difficulty Decorrelation

Age dependent performance disparities in medical image classification often arise because age acts as a confounder, linking imaging morphology with disease prevalence. In practice, disparities can manifest as overdiagnosis at ages where disease prevalence is higher and underdiagnosis at ages where prevalence is lower, and can worsen under train test shifts in the age distribution. Conventional mitigation approaches that enforce strict age invariance may suppress diagnostically meaningful information encoded in age. We therefore propose a robust framework that mitigates the effects of age-dependent confounding by targeting spurious age linked trends rather than enforcing invariance. Following a warm-up phase, we characterize sample difficulty and model its age-dependent trends in a label-conditioned manner. We decorrelate age from dominant age difficulty trends using robust, Huber weighted affinity weights, attenuating confounding-driven shortcuts while preserving clinically meaningful, nonlinear age information. We further introduce an Age Coverage Score that scales the decorrelation penalty by minibatch age variance to ensure stable optimization under limited age diversity. Across two radiology datasets, our approach reduces age dependent true and false positive disparities with minimal AUC impact and remains robust to increasing train test age distribution shifts.

Nikhil Cherian Kurian, Victor Caquilpan Parra, Abin Shoby +2

Australian Institute for Machine Learning, Adelaide University, Adelaide, Australia

Medical Image Classification Imbalanced Classification Latent Confounders Heterogeneity Mitigation Impact Analysis

May 18, 2026cs.LG

Counterfactual Likelihood Tests for Indirect Influence in Private Reasoning Channels

Reasoning systems increasingly separate intermediate computation into private and public channels, creating evaluation cases that look similar in transcripts: independent co-derivation, direct access to private content, and indirect influence through public communication. This paper presents a counterfactual likelihood test for measuring influence between private reasoning channels. The method replaces an upstream private block with a length-matched donor block, holds the public token sequence and downstream target fixed, and measures the downstream target's negative-log-likelihood shift. On a 7B role-channel reasoning model used for validation, textual probes are unreliable: raw n-gram overlap overstates leakage, corrected overlap remains noisy, and canary reproduction reports no discrimination. Counterfactual likelihood separates unmasked and masked conditions, while length matching controls a RoPE positional confound. In the hardened masked validation, reverse B-to-A influence is near zero, while A-to-B influence persists through public-speech hidden states. A multi-checkpoint validation across three checkpoints, five seeds, and 13,734 valid directional contrasts replicates this asymmetry. A graph-separation control that blocks private-to-public carrier edges produces bit-identical natural and counterfactual scores across all 13,734 control evaluations, identifying the tested public-channel pathway as the complete carrier of the measured counterfactual signal under the implemented role-visibility mask. The results show that private-channel evaluation should report direct and indirect influence separately, and that counterfactual likelihood probes provide a practical default for measuring these boundaries.

Alexander Boesgaard Lorup

Openhagen

Impact Analysis Unigram Tokenizer

May 17, 2026cs.MA

Human-Flow Digital Twin for Predicting the Effects of Mobility Introduction on Visitor Circulation

We propose a framework for predicting the effects of mobility introduction measures using a human-flow digital twin. This digital twin incorporates a multi-agent simulator that can represent how visitors choose destinations depending on factors such as their current location and the attractiveness of spots. We extract data on how visitors selected destinations with respect to measured pre-intervention human-flow data, inter-spot distances, spot attractiveness, and travel volumes, and use these data to train each agent's decision model of this simulator. The trained decision model is a function that takes a visitor's current state and surrounding environmental information as input and outputs which spot the visitor will move toward next. By expressing mobility introduction measures as changes to inter-point distances or to spot attractiveness, the framework can reproduce human flows with mobility introduction in the multi-agent simulator and thereby quantify effects such as changes in visitor counts and circulation. We evaluated the proposed method using human-flow data measured with and without introducing mobility within Wakayama Castle Park in Japan. When reproducing flows with mobility introduction using a multi-layer perceptron decision model, the cosine similarity of the spatial population distribution exceeded 0.7, confirming that the approach can replicate the flow changes caused by the mobility introduction.

Chiharu Shima, Haruki Yonekura, Fukuharu Tanaka +2

bitA Inc., Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo, Japan · The University of Osaka, Suita, Osaka, Japan · RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan

Mobility Cognitive Digital Twins Flow Models Multi-Agent Simulations Analytics Impact Analysis

May 16, 2026cs.CV

StreamingEffect: Real-Time Human-Centric Video Effect Generation

Streaming video effect generation is highly desirable for live human-centric applications such as e-commerce streaming, entertainment, and vlogging, yet remains difficult due to the lack of suitable data and deployable editing models. Unlike generic video generation, this task requires real-time video-to-video editing that adds expressive effects while preserving human identity, background content, and temporal consistency. Existing acceleration efforts mainly focus on text-to-video generation, while efficient distillation for video editing remains largely underexplored. In this paper, we present \textbf{StreamingEffect}, a real-time human-centric streaming video effect framework. We adopt an in-context video editing architecture and train a high-quality bidirectional teacher, then distill it into a causal autoregressive student and further reduce sampling from 50 steps to 4 steps. We also introduce keyframe control, allowing reference effect frames to be injected online and propagated through the stream for interactive editing. To address the data bottleneck, we construct \textbf{VideoEffect-130K}, to our knowledge the largest human-centric video effect dataset, containing 70K effect videos and 60K editing videos across 600 effect categories curated from short-video and editing platforms. Experiments show that our method enables real-time, high-quality 720p video editing on a single H200 GPU.

Yiren Song, Cheng Liu, Yuxin Jiang +1

Show Lab, National University of Singapore

Video Editing Video Dataset Real-Time Systems Impact Analysis

May 14, 2026cs.IR

The Impact of AI Search on the Online Content Ecosystem: Evidence from Google and Reddit

Search engines traditionally complement online content platforms by directing users seeking information to external websites. The emergence of generative AI search tools that summarize answers directly on the results page may disrupt this relationship by making visits to source platforms optional. We study this question using Google AI Overviews and Reddit, one of the largest online discussion platforms. Our identification exploits Google's content moderation policy: Safe-for-Work (SFW) Reddit communities are indexed by Google organic search and surfaced in Google AI Overviews, while Not-Safe-for-Work (NSFW) communities, though indexed by organic search, are prohibited from being referenced in AI Overview summaries. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that AI Overviews increase engagement in SFW communities: daily comments rise by 12.0 percent and the number of commenting users by 12.4 percent relative to NSFW communities. The effects are concentrated in experience-based discussions (opinions, advice, and personal experiences) rather than fact-based information. However, the subsequent introduction of Google AI Mode, which allows users to interact conversationally with the AI summary, largely eliminates these gains in experience-based content. These results suggest that the effects of AI search depend critically on interface design and types of content.

Peibo Zhang, Ruomeng Cui, Dennis J. Zhang

Goizueta Business School, Emory University · Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis

Social Media Content Moderation Generative Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Systems Artificial Intelligence Search Impact Analysis

May 14, 2026cs.AI

Intelligence Impact Quotient (IIQ): A Framework for Measuring Organizational AI Impact

The Intelligence Impact Quotient (IIQ) is a composite metric intended to quantify the depth to which AI systems are integrated into organizational work and their impact. Rather than treating access counts or aggregate token volume as sufficient evidence of impact, IIQ combines a novelty-weighted, time-decayed token stock with usage frequency, a grace-period recency gate, organizational leverage, task complexity, and autonomy. The formulation produces a raw Intelligence Adoption Index (IAI) and a normalized 0-1000 IIQ index for comparison between heterogeneous users and units. We also derive sub-daily update rules and a bounded interpretation layer for estimated efficiency and financial impact. The paper positions IIQ as a deployment-oriented measurement framework: a formal proposal for tracking AI embedding in workflows, not a direct measure of model capability or a substitute for causal productivity evaluation. Synthetic scenarios illustrate how the revised metric distinguishes between frequent low-leverage use, semantically repetitive prompting, and more autonomous, higher-consequence AI-assisted work.

Chandan Rajah, Neha Sengupta, Federico Castanedo +4

Inception, G42 · G42

Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Systems Agentic Evaluations Impact Analysis

May 14, 2026cs.LG

Smooth Multi-Policy Causal Effect Estimation in Longitudinal Settings

Comparative evaluation of multiple dynamic treatment policies is essential for healthcare and policy decisions, yet conventional longitudinal causal inference methods estimate each in isolation, preventing information sharing across counterfactuals. We demonstrate that this separate estimation paradigm induces a structurally uncontrolled second-order bias, inflating finite-sample variance even after standard debiasing with longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation(LTMLE). To address this, we propose a policy-aware reparameterization of Iterative Conditional Expectation (ICE) Q-functions that enables joint estimation through shared representations. We implement this approach in the Policy-Encoded Q Network (PEQ-Net), an architecture centered on a shared policy encoder. The encoder is trained using kernel mean embeddings, ensuring that the learned representation space reflects population-level policy dissimilarities. After applying an LTMLE correction step, we prove this design imposes a structural constraint on the second-order remainder, thereby stabilizing finite-sample variance. Experiments on semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate that PEQ-Net consistently outperforms existing ICE-based methods, achieving substantial reductions in root-mean-square error, particularly when evaluating closely related policies.

Wenxin Chen, Weishen Pan, Kyra Gan +1

Cornell University, New York, US.

Causal Inferences Treatment Allocation Longitudinal Impact Analysis

May 14, 2026cs.HC

Self-Regulated Learning in Essay Writing: Consistency of Strategies and Impact on Outcomes

Background: Abilities for effective self-regulated learning (SRL) are critical for lifelong learning, particularly during adolescence when these skills consolidate and strongly influence future learning. Their importance has grown with the rise of online and blended education. Yet, little is known about how secondary school students self-regulate in online environments, how their SRL processes and strategies evolve, or how they affect outcomes. In secondary education, understanding these processes can reveal patterns and indicators of learning success, informing the design of online support mechanisms. Evidence from repeated-measures designs remains scarce. Objectives: This study aims to examine how secondary school students enact SRL strategies during online essay writing, how these strategies change over time, and how they relate to learning outcomes. Methods: We analysed metacognition-related trace data collected from secondary students during a two-wave online essay-writing task conducted one week apart in two Colombian schools (N = 93 for session 1, N = 95 for session 2) via a digital learning platform. Using a combination of process mining and unsupervised machine learning techniques, we identified dominant SRL strategies grounded in established SRL processes and examined their stability and association with learning outcomes. Results and conclusions: Three dominant SRL strategies were identified. Results showed variability: many students remained in or shifted to Read first, write next, while none used Write intensively, read selectively in session 2. Although less common, latter strategy was positively associated with learning outcomes.

Gloria Fernández-Nieto, Kiyoshige Garcés, Mladen Raković +4

Department of Data Science & AI Monash University Australia, Victoria

Writing Children Impact Analysis

May 13, 2026cs.CL

ROK-FORTRESS: Measuring the Effect of Geopolitical Transcreation for National Security and Public Safety

Safety evaluations for large language models (LLMs) increasingly target high-stakes National Security and Public Safety (NSPS) risks, yet multilingual safety is mostly assessed through translation-only benchmarks that preserve the underlying scenario, leaving how language and geopolitical context interact largely unexamined beyond a few language pairs. We introduce ROK-FORTRESS, a bilingual, culturally adversarial NSPS benchmark that uses the English-Korean language pair and U.S.-ROK geopolitical axis as a case study, separating the effects of language and geopolitical grounding via a transcreation matrix: adversarial intents are evaluated under controlled combinations of (i) English versus Korean language and (ii) U.S. versus Korean entities, institutions, and operational details. Each adversarial prompt is paired with a dual-use benign counterpart to quantify over-refusal, and responses are scored by calibrated LLM-as-a-judge panels using expert-crafted, prompt-specific binary rubrics. Across a dual-track set of frontier and Korean-optimized models, we find a consistent suppression effect in Korean variants and substantial model-to-model variation in how geopolitical grounding interacts with language; in a subset of models, Korean grounding further mitigates the language-driven suppression. This indicates that, at least in the English-Korean case, safety behavior is shaped by language-as-risk signals and context interactions that translation-only evaluations miss. A direct-request ablation that strips jailbreak wrappers separates a small but persistent reduction for closed-source models from a larger, wrapper-dependent effect that reverses for open-source models, suggesting part of the Korean suppression reflects prompt specialization rather than intrinsic language-based safety alignment. The transcreation matrix methodology is designed to generalize to other language-culture pairs.

Michael S. Lee, Yash Maurya, Drew Rein +13

1Scale AI · 2Korea AI Safety Institute

Multilingual Safety Large Language Model Safety Geopolitical Grounding Interacts Impact Analysis

May 13, 2026stat.ME

Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification

Selection bias is pervasive in observational studies. For example, large scale biobanks data can exhibit ``healthy volunteer bias'' when respondents are healthier and of higher socio-economic status than the population they are meant to represent. Recovering causal effects from such sub-population is an important problem in causal inference, as estimating average treatment effects (ATE) from selected populations can result in a severely biased estimate of the ATE from the whole population. In this paper, we investigate the identifiability of the ATE under selection bias. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for ATE identifiability, leveraging weak assumptions on probability classes to characterize propensity score and selection probability. Compared to previous works, our results extend existing graphical identifiability criteria and offer a more comprehensive understanding of causal effect identification with strictly weaker conditions in the presence of selection bias.

Yiwen Qiu, Filip Kovačević, Shimeng Huang +2

Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA) · Carnegie Mellon University

Selection Bias Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Impact Analysis

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Temporal Preference Concepts and their Functions in a Large Language Model

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being deployed to make decisions that require trading off near-term gains against long-term consequences, yet little is known about how they internally represent or resolve these tradeoffs. In this work, we causally localize an underlying subgraph for temporal preference in a distilled LLM (Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507), identifying mid-to-upper-layer nodes through converging evidence from gradient-based attribution and activation patching. We find that the geometry of time horizon is encoded in the residual stream at the expected localized layers. A behavioral analysis reveals that unintervened LLMs discount the future several times less steeply than humans, yet this preference is unstable across contexts, motivating explicit control rather than implicit reliance on training. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that steering vectors can shift temporal preference. Our work demonstrates how mechanistic interpretability can bring us closer to reliable control over how LLMs plan and reason

Ian Rios-Sialer, Shantanu Darveshi, Shuai Jiang +4

AISC San Francisco, USA · AISC Munich, Germany · SPAR, AISC Berlin, Germany

Large Language Model Decisions Mechanistic Interpretability Impact Analysis

May 11, 2026cs.MA

Effect of Graph Gluing on Consensus in Networked Multi-Agent Systems

In this paper, the effects of graph gluing operations in networks of multi-agent systems and their impact on system performance are investigated. In many practical applications, multiple multi-agent subsystems must be interconnected through communication links to accomplish complex tasks, resulting in a larger communication network. Such interconnections modify the underlying graph topology and consequently affect the consensus behavior and convergence rate of the network. In particular, this paper examines both bridge gluing and interface gluing and analyzes how the number and structure of communication links between subsystems influence the Fiedler eigenvalue of the resulting graph. Since the Fiedler eigenvalue is directly related to the convergence rate of consensus dynamics, the proposed analysis establishes a clear relationship between interconnection strategies, algebraic connectivity, and system performance. The results provide theoretical insight into how different gluing mechanisms alter the spectral properties of the graph Laplacian and, in turn, the convergence characteristics of the networked multi-agent system. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the theoretical findings and to validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Rohollah Moghadam, Santosh Kandel

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, California State University-Sacramento, 5028 Riverside Hall, 6000 J Street, Sacramento, CA, 95819, USA · Department of Mathematics and Statistics, California State University-Sacramento, 226 Brighton Hall, 6000 J Street, Sacramento, CA, 95819, USA

Model-Based Multi-Agent Systems Optical Networks Convergence Spectral Decomposition Impact Analysis

May 11, 2026cs.CL

The Impact of Editorial Intervention on Detecting Native Language Traces

Native Language Identification (NLI) is the task of determining an author's native language (L1) from their non-native writings. With the advent of human-AI co-authorship, non-native texts are routinely corrected and rewritten by large language models, fundamentally altering the linguistic features NLI models depend on. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of L1 traces across increasing degrees of editorial intervention. By processing 450 essays from the Write & Improve 2024 corpus through varying levels of grammatical error correction (GEC) and paraphrasing, we demonstrate that L1 attribution does not entirely depend on surface-level errors. Instead, the detection models leverage deeper L1 features: unidiomatic lexico-semantic choices, pragmatic transfer, and the author's underlying cultural perspective. We find that minimal edits preserve these structural traces and maintain high profiling accuracy. In contrast, fluency edits and paraphrasing normalize these L1 features, leading to a severe degradation in performance.

Ahmet Yavuz Uluslu, Mark Gales, Kate Knill +1

University of Cambridge · University of Zurich

Linguistics Authorship Grammatical Error Correction Impact Analysis

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Sub-Footprint Effect Correction in FW-LiDAR Point Clouds via Intra-Footprint Target Unmixing

Sub-footprint target mixing within a laser footprint significantly increases LiDAR intensity uncertainty, especially in complex environments where heterogeneous materials inside one footprint cause nonlinear distortions that impair intensity-based applications. However, the forward mixing inherent to the single-pixel detection mode of LiDAR systems blurs sub-footprint contributions, making sub-footprint effects difficult to address effectively in existing studies. To address this issue, we introduce a novel, physics-based framework that explicitly resolves sub-footprint intensity correction in full-waveform LiDAR (FW-LiDAR) point clouds. The key innovation is to make the otherwise implicit intra-footprint mixing process explicit: we first develop a spatiotemporal laser-beam distribution model to physically characterize within-footprint forward mixing of multi-target returns. Building on this formulation, we incorporate ancillary information including waveform parameters and surface geometry as constraints to pose a well-defined inverse unmixing problem and decompose each footprint into fractional contributions from multiple sub-targets. We then recover sub-footprint-corrected intensities by inverting the observed mixtures through a unified combination of parametric and model-driven approaches. To the best of our knowledge, few prior studies explicitly establish sub-footprint inversion and correction within a single laser footprint, and our framework offers a principled, physics-grounded solution. Experiments on both controlled and real-world LiDAR datasets demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances semantic separability across heterogeneous targets and intensity consistency across homogeneous targets.

Zhen Xiao, Yanfeng Gu, Xian Li

School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

Lidar Light Detection And Ranging Data Point Clouds Spatiotemporal Correction Impact Analysis

May 10, 2026cs.AI

SeePhys Pro: Diagnosing Modality Transfer and Blind-Training Effects in Multimodal RLVR for Physics Reasoning

We introduce SeePhys Pro, a fine-grained modality transfer benchmark that studies whether models preserve the same reasoning capability when critical information is progressively transferred from text to image. Unlike standard vision-essential benchmarks that evaluate a single input form, SeePhys Pro features four semantically aligned variants for each problem with progressively increasing visual elements. Our evaluation shows that current frontier models are far from representation-invariant reasoners: performance degrades on average as information moves from language to diagrams, with visual variable grounding as the most critical bottleneck. Motivated by this inference-time fragility, we further develop large training corpora for multimodal RLVR and use blind training as a diagnostic control, finding that RL with all training images masked can still improve performance on unmasked validation sets. To analyze this effect, text-deletion, image-mask-rate, and format-saturation controls suggest that such gains can arise from residual textual and distributional cues rather than valid visual evidence. Our results highlight the need to evaluate multimodal reasoning not only by final-answer accuracy, but also by robustness under modality transfer and by diagnostics that test whether improvements rely on task-critical visual evidence.

Kun Xiang, Terry Jingchen Zhang, Zirong Liu +15

Sun Yat-sen University · ETH Zurich · Huawei Technologies Ltd. +1

Multimodal Reasoning Multimodal Benchmarks Visual Evidence Reinforcement Learning With Verifiable Reward Impact Analysis

May 8, 2026stat.ML

Sinkhorn Treatment Effects: A Causal Optimal Transport Measure

We introduce the Sinkhorn treatment effect, an entropic optimal transport measure of divergence between counterfactual distributions. Unlike classical quantities such as the average treatment effect, this measure captures differences across entire distributions. We analyze this divergence as a statistical functional and show it can be written as a smooth transformation of counterfactual mean embeddings with an appropriate kernel. This characterization allows us to establish first-order pathwise differentiability in general, and second-order pathwise differentiability under the null hypothesis of equal counterfactual distributions. Leveraging this smoothness, we construct debiased estimators and use them to obtain asymptotically valid tests for distributional treatment effects with a fixed entropic regularization parameter. Because the power of the test depends on this unknown parameter, we further propose an aggregated test that combines evidence across a grid of regularization choices. Experiments on simulated and image data demonstrate the practical advantages of our estimator and testing procedure.

Medha Agarwal, Alex Luedtke

Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA · Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Optimal Transport Approach Exponential Family Kullback-Leibler Regularization Divergence Impact Analysis+1

May 8, 2026cs.CL

Can Language Models Identify Side Effects of Breast Cancer Radiation Treatments?

Accurately communicating the side effects of cancer treatments to cancer survivors is critical, particularly in settings such as informed consent, where clinicians must clearly and comprehensively convey potential treatment toxicities. However, this task remains challenging due to clinical knowledge deficits about adverse treatment effects and fragmentation across electronic health record (EHR) systems. Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to assist in this task, though their reliability in oncology survivorship contexts remains poorly understood. We present a deployment-oriented stress-testing framework for evaluating LLM-generated radiation side effect lists in breast cancer treatment and survivorship care. Using 21 breast cancer patient profiles, we construct paired patient clinical scenarios that differ only in radiotherapy regimens to evaluate seven instruction-tuned LLMs under multiple prompting regimes. We then compare LLM outputs to a clinician-curated reference derived from informed consent documents at two major academic medical centers and developed by a team including more than seven breast radiation oncologists. The reference maps radiation dose-fractionation, fields, and locations to associated toxicities, broken down by frequency and temporal onset. Across models, we reveal sensitivity to minor documentation changes, trade-offs between precision and recall, and systematic under-recall of rare and long-term side effects. When used alone, constraints on the number of side effects generated reduce precision, and grounding outputs in clinician-curated side effect lists substantially improves reliability and robustness. These findings highlight important limitations of LLM use in oncology and suggest practical design choices for safer and more informative survivorship-focused applications.

Natalie Seah, Danielle S. Bitterman, Daphna Spiegel +1

University of Virginia · Mass General Brigham, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School

Multidisciplinary Tumor Boards Radiotherapy Impact Analysis

May 8, 2026stat.ML

Semiparametric Efficient Test for Interpretable Distributional Treatment Effects

Distributional treatment effects can be invisible to means: a treatment may preserve average outcomes while changing tails, modes, dispersion, or rare-event probabilities. Kernel tests can detect discrepancies between interventional outcome laws, but global tests do not reveal where the laws differ. We propose DR-ME, to our knowledge the first semiparametrically efficient finite-location test for interpretable distributional treatment effects. DR-ME evaluates an interventional kernel witness at learned outcome locations, returning causal-discrepancy coordinates rather than only a global rejection. From observational data, we derive orthogonal doubly robust kernel features whose centered oracle form is the canonical gradient of this finite witness. For fixed locations, we characterize the local testing limit: DR-ME is chi-square calibrated under the null, has noncentral chi-square local power, and uses the covariance whitening that optimizes local signal-to-noise for discrepancies visible through the selected coordinates. This efficient local-power geometry yields a principled location-learning criterion, with sample splitting preserving post-selection validity. Experiments show near-nominal type-I error, competitive power against global doubly robust kernel tests, and interpretable learned locations that localize distributional effects in a semi-synthetic medical-imaging study.

Houssam Zenati, Arthur Gretton

1Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London

Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Two-Sample Testing Exponential Family Kernel Method Treatment Impact Analysis

May 8, 2026cs.LG

Instruction Tuning Changes How Upstream State Conditions Late Readout: A Cross-Patching Diagnostic

Recent interpretability work has identified model-internal handles on post-trained behavior, including refusal directions, assistant/persona axes, and sparse chat-tuning features. These results localize where behaviors can be read out or controlled, often in middle-to-late layers. We ask how earlier computation and the late stack cooperate to turn those differences into next-token margins. To test this, we introduce first-divergence cross-patching: at the first token where pretrained base (PT) and instruction-tuned (IT) checkpoints disagree, we cross each model's earlier-layer state with each model's late stack. The diagnostic separates training recipes: same-base instruction-following descendants show late effects that depend on their own earlier-layer state, while OpenMath2 math-domain SFT and controlled code/biomed CPT controls with verified domain learning do not; for OpenMath2, the late effect is already largely portable from base earlier-layer state. Across five dense families (4B-32B), the IT late stack adds +0.76 logits from PT upstream and +2.44 from IT upstream, giving a +1.68 interaction that is positive in every family. Thus the late stack has a real PT-upstream effect, but its larger effect in the IT checkpoint appears only when it reads its own post-trained upstream state. Sparse features in final MLP layers partially mediate the effect and are driven by upstream patches, supporting a handoff from earlier state to final-layer feature activation to IT-token margin. Forced-token scoring shows that the local token choice can change later exact-answer success. Operationally, paired-checkpoint studies that localize a difference to late layers should test whether it survives under the other checkpoint's upstream state before treating the late stack as self-contained.

Yifan Zhou

University of California, Los Angeles

Instruction Tuning Instruction-Tuned Models Model Activations Readout Impact Analysis Lineages

May 8, 2026cs.LG

FAME: Forecasting Academic Impact via Continuous-Time Manifold Evolution

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to brainstorm and evaluate research ideas, yet assessing such judgments is fundamentally difficult because the true impact of a new idea may take years to emerge. We address this challenge by using the impact forecasting of human-authored manuscripts as a verifiable proxy task. In a prospective forecasting study, we find that frontier LLMs fail to reliably distinguish high-impact papers from ordinary publications, suggesting that static text-based judging is insufficient for scientific evaluation. To address this limitation, we propose

\textbf{FAME}

(

\underline{\text{F}}

orecasting

\underline{\text{A}}

cademic Impact via Continuous-Time

\underline{\text{M}}

anifold

\underline{\text{E}}

volution), a spatiotemporal framework for modeling the dynamic trajectories of scientific topics. FAME projects papers into a dynamic latent space informed by textual features and a verified knowledge-flow graph, learning geometric constraints that align impactful manuscripts with the forward momentum of their fields. Experiments on 3,200 arXiv papers across three fast-evolving subfields show that FAME consistently and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art LLM evaluators in prospective multidimensional impact forecasting. Furthermore, integrating FAME's dynamic geometric signals into LLMs significantly improves their forecasting performance. These results support manuscript impact forecasting as a useful, measurable proxy benchmark and position FAME as a strong, trajectory-aware foundation for automated scientific evaluation.

Jianrong Ding, Jianyuan Zhong, Zhengyan Shi +1

Department of Computer Science and Engineering The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Academic Integrity Impact Analysis

May 7, 2026cs.AI

Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

Tobias Maringgele, Jalal Etesami

Technical University of Munich · UC Berkeley

Causal Graph Bayesian Experimental Design Impact Analysis Epistemic Integrity

May 7, 2026cs.CV

Multimodal Emotion Recognition via Causal-Diffusion Bridge (Affect-Diff)

Multimodal emotion recognition on CMU-MOSEI faces an extreme imbalance as Happy accounts for 65.9% of samples while three Ekman categories collectively represent under 7%, causing standard fusion models to maximize accuracy by ignoring minority emotions entirely. We present Affect-Diff, a Causal-Diffusion Bridge that addresses this through three jointly trained mechanisms: a NOTEARS-learned causal graph that re-weights modality contributions before fusion, a beta-VAE bottleneck for regularized latent compression, and a stop-gradiented 1D DDPM prior that structures the latent space against majority-class collapse. On 3,292 aligned CMU-MOSEI samples, Affect-Diff achieves validation balanced accuracy 0.384, an 18% relative improvement over the strongest baseline (TETFN: 0.324), while all evaluated baselines produce zero F1 on Fear, Disgust, and Surprise. Ablation studies confirm independent, non-redundant contributions from the diffusion prior (-24% without it) and causal graph (-13%). Notably, only the deterministic-encoder variant detects all six emotion classes, revealing KL regularization strength as a direct lever for minority-class sensitivity.

Ankit Sanjyal

Department of Computer Science – Data Science Fordham University New York, USA

Emotion Recognition Minority Impact Analysis

May 7, 2026cs.CV

AffectSeek: Agentic Affective Understanding in Long Videos under Vague User Queries

Existing affective understanding studies have mainly focused on recognizing emotions from images, audio signals, or pre-cliped video clips, where the affective evidence is already given. This passive and clip-centered setting does not fully reflect real-world scenarios, in which users often interact with long videos and express their needs through natural-language queries. In this paper, we study \textbf{Vague-Query-driven video Affective Understanding (VQAU)}, a new task that requires models to localize affective moments in long videos, predict their emotion categories, and generate evidence-grounded rationales under vague user queries. To support this task, we construct \textbf{VQAU-Bench}, a benchmark that integrates long videos, vague affective queries, temporal clip annotations, emotion labels, and rationale explanations into a unified evaluation framework. VQAU-Bench enables systematic assessment of semantic-temporal-affective alignment, affective moment localization, emotion classification, and rationale generation. To address the multi-step reasoning challenges of VQAU, we further propose \textbf{AffectSeek}, an agentic framework that actively seeks, verifies, and explains affective moments in long videos. AffectSeek decomposes VQAU into intent interpretation, candidate localization, clip verification, emotion reasoning, and rationale generation, and progressively aligns vague user intent with long-video evidence through role-specialized reasoning and cross-stage verification. Experiments show that VQAU remains challenging for existing affective recognition models and single-step vision-language models, while AffectSeek provides a simple yet effective framework for agentic long-video affective understanding.

Zhen Zhang, Yuhang Yang, Yunxiang Jiang +5

Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Wearable Computing, School of Information Science and Engineering, Lanzhou University, Gansu 730000, China · Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory for Emotional Intelligence and Pervasive Computing, Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen 518107, China · Department of Computer and Information Engineering, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi 127788, United Arab Emirates +3

Long Videos Impact Analysis

May 5, 2026cs.CL

The Impact of Vocabulary Overlaps on Knowledge Transfer in Multilingual Machine Translation

Knowledge transfer, especially across related languages, has been found beneficial for multilingual neural machine translation (MNMT), but some aspects are still under-explored and deserve further investigation. A joint vocabulary is most often applied to form a uniform word embedding space, but since the impact of a disjoint vocabulary on model performance is far less studied, there is no consensus on how much knowledge transfer is mainly due to vocabulary overlap. In this paper, we present systematic experiments with joint and disjoint vocabularies, and auxiliary languages related and unrelated to the source language. We design this experiment in an out-of-domain setup in order to emphasize transfer and the impact of the auxiliary language. As expected, we yield better results with more extensive vocabulary overlaps typical for related languages, but our experiments also show that domain-match and language relatedness are more important than a joint vocabulary.

Oona Itkonen, Jörg Tiedemann

University of Helsinki

Neural Machine Translation Cross-Lingual Transfer Implicit Association Test Impact Analysis

May 5, 2026cs.PL

Governed Metaprogramming for Intelligent Systems: Reclassifying Eval as a Governed Effect

AI systems increasingly synthesize executable structure at runtime: LLMs generate programs, agents construct workflows,self-improving systems modify their own behavior. In classical homoiconic and staged languages, the transition from code representation to execution is unrestricted. eval is a language primitive, not a governed operation. We argue that in governed intelligent systems, this transition is an authority amplification: it converts symbolic structure into executable authority and must be mediated like any other effect. We present governed metaprogramming, a language design where program representations (machine forms) are first-class values, form manipulation is pure computation, and materialization (the transition from form to executable machine) is a governed effect subject to structural inspection. The governance system analyzes the proposed program's capability requirements, policy compliance, and resource estimates before permitting execution. We formalize two judgments: pure form evaluation (which emits no directives) and governed materialization (which emits exactly one governed directive). We prove three properties: purity of form manipulation, the no-bypass theorem, and boundary preservation. We implement the design in mashinTalk, a DSL for AI workflows compiling to BEAM byte code, and report on integration with 454 existing machine-checked Rocq theorems. The central contribution is reclassifying eval from a language primitive into a governed effect.

Alan L. McCann

Mashin, Inc.

Runtime Enforcement Production Agentic Systems Authority Impact Analysis Language Pairs