Ensemble

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17 papers in the last 28 days · 0.3% of indexed attention

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Period ending 2026-09-21

5 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Ensemble.

Period ending 2026-09-14

6 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Ensemble.

Period ending 2026-09-07

5 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Ensemble.

191 papers

Latest in Ensemble

May 21, 2026cs.LG

Maestro: Reinforcement Learning to Orchestrate Hierarchical Model-Skill Ensembles

The proliferation of large language models (LLMs) and modular skills has endowed autonomous agents with increasingly powerful capabilities. Existing frameworks typically rely on monolithic LLMs and fixed logic to interface with these skills. This gives rise to a critical bottleneck: different LLMs offer distinct advantages across diverse domains, yet current frameworks fail to exploit the complementary strengths of models and skills, thereby limiting their performance on downstream tasks. In this paper, we present Maestro (Multimodal Agent for Expert-Skill Targeted Reinforced Orchestration), a Reinforcement Learning (RL)-driven orchestration framework that reframes heterogeneous multimodal tasks as a sequential decision-making process over a hierarchical model-skill registry. Rather than consolidating all knowledge into a single model, Maestro trains a lightweight policy to dynamically compose ensembles of frozen expert models and a two-tier skill library, deciding at each step whether to invoke an external expert, which model-skill pair to select, and when to terminate. The policy is optimized via outcome-based RL, requiring no step-level supervision. We evaluate Maestro across ten representative multimodal benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, chart understanding, high-resolution perception, and domain-specific analysis. With only a 4B orchestrator, Maestro achieves an average accuracy of 70.1%, surpassing both GPT-5 (69.3%) and Gemini-2.5-Pro (68.7%). Crucially, the learned coordination policy generalizes to unseen models and skills without retraining: augmenting the registry with out-of-domain experts yields a 59.5% average on four challenging benchmarks, outperforming all closed-source baselines. Maestro further maintains high computational efficiency with low latency. The source code is available at https://github.com/jinyangwu/Maestro.
Jinyang Wu, Guocheng Zhai, Ruihan Jin +7
May 21, 2026cs.CL

From TF-IDF to Transformers: A Comparative and Ensemble Approach to Sentiment Classification

Sentiment analysis, also referred to as opinion mining, primarily tries to extract opinion from any text-based data. In the context of movie reviews and critics, sentimental analysis can be a helpful tool to predict whether a movie review is generally positive or negative. It can be difficult for the ML models to understand the context or metaphysical sentiment accurately, as ML models rely largely on statistical word representations. The objective of this paper is to examine and categorise movie reviews into positive and negative sentiments. Diverse machine learning models are considered in doing so, and Natural Language Processing (NLP) methodologies are employed for data preprocessing and model assessment. The IMDb dataset is used. Specifically, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), LightGBM, LSTM, and transformer-based models such as RoBERTa and DistilBERT were evaluated. After a lot of testing with accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and ROC-AUC, RoBERTa performed better than all the other models, with an accuracy of 93.02%. A soft voting ensemble that combined all the models also improved classification performance, showing that model ensembling works well for sentiment analysis.
Dip Biswas Shanto, Mitali Yadav, Prajwal Panth +1
May 21, 2026eess.IV

Entropy-Guided Self-Supervised Learning for Medical Image Classification

Accurate and robust medical image classification is paramount for early disease diagnosis and treatment planning. However, challenges such as limited annotated data, high intra-class variability, and subtle inter-class differences often hinder the performance of deep learning models. This paper introduces a synergistic deep learning framework that leverages the strengths of self-supervised learning and transfer learning for enhanced medical image classification. Our approach employs two distinct ConvNeXt-Tiny models: one pre-trained on a large-scale natural image dataset (ImageNet) and another pre-trained using an entropy-guided Masked Autoencoder (MAE) on the target medical dataset. Both models are then fine-tuned on specific medical image classification tasks. A final ensemble strategy, based on averaging predicted probabilities, is utilized to combine the complementary insights from these two models. Rigorous experimental validation across four diverse medical imaging datasets (Breast Ultrasound Images (BUSI), International Skin Imaging Collaboration (ISIC) 2018, Kvasir, and COVID) demonstrates the superior performance and robustness of our ensemble approach. The MAE pre-training significantly improves feature learning on domain-specific data, while the ImageNet pre-training provides strong generalizable features. The ensemble consistently achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming individual models and existing methods, highlighting the efficacy of combining diverse pre-training strategies for challenging medical image analysis.
Joao Florindo, Viviane Moura
May 20, 2026cs.CL

Residual Skill Optimization for Text-to-SQL Ensembles

Text-to-SQL ensembles improve over single-candidate generation by drawing multiple SQL candidates and selecting one, but their effectiveness is bounded by Pass@K, the probability that at least one of K candidates is correct. Existing methods source diversity heuristically through stochastic decoding or prompt variants, leaving candidate sets dominated by correlated failures. We present DivSkill-SQL, a residual skill optimization framework that builds complementary agentic Text-to-SQL ensembles without model fine-tuning: each new skill is optimized on examples the current skill ensemble fails on, provably targeting its marginal contribution to Pass@K. On Spider2-Lite, DivSkill-SQL improves selected accuracy by up to +11.1 points on Snowflake and +8.3 on BigQuery over the strongest ensemble baseline, with consistent gains across two base models (Opus-4.6 and GPT-5.4). Skills optimized on a single dialect transfer without retraining across dialects (Snowflake, BigQuery, SQLite) and to a different task formulation, such as BIRD-Critic (+2.6 pts). Error diagnostics show up to 3x fewer hallucinated schema references and function calls, indicating that gains come from genuinely reliable complementary skills rather than surface-form variation.
Jiongli Zhu, Haoquan Guan, Parjanya Prajakta Prashant +8
May 20, 2026cs.CV

FruitEnsemble: MLLM-Guided Arbitration for Heterogeneous ensemble in Fine-Grained Fruit Recognition

Fine-grained fruit classification is a critical yet challenging task in agricultural computer vision, primarily hindered by a severe shortage of high-quality datasets and the high visual similarity between classes. To address these challenges, we first constructed a comprehensive dataset comprising 306 fruit categories with 116,233 samples. Moreover, we propose FruitEnsemble, a practical two-stage dynamic inference framework designed to overcome the generalization limitations of static single-model architectures. In the first stage, FruitEnsemble employs a validation-calibrated weighted ensemble of heterogeneous backbones to generate a robust Top-3 candidate pool. To tackle difficult samples, we introduce an expert arbitration mechanism: when ensemble confidence falls below 0.6, a multimodal large language model (MLLM) is triggered to perform rigorous visual verification by integrating external botanical descriptions using Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning. Furthermore, we optimized the training pipeline with a hard sample-aware joint loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FruitEnsemble achieves a classification accuracy of 70.49% and outperforms existing state-of-the-art models. Our framework provides an efficient, deployment-oriented solution for real-world agricultural visual sorting and quality inspection tasks.
Enhui Yu, Junhui Li, Ruitong Lu +2
May 20, 2026cs.CL

DIVE: Embedding Compression via Self-Limiting Gradient Updates

High-dimensional language-model embeddings increase storage and search costs, while supervised compressors can overfit when relevance labels are scarce. We present DIVE (Dimensionality reduction with Implicit View Ensembles), a residual compression adapter codesigned with a self-limiting hinge loss, geometry distillation, and head-wise NT-Xent over implicit coordinate views. The hinge stops updating satisfied ranking constraints, while the dense objectives stabilize the compressed representation; only the first head is retained at inference. Under query-disjoint evaluation with two LLM2Vec backbones, five BEIR benchmarks, 128d and 256d outputs, and six baselines, DIVE is the strongest adapter on all five primary benchmarks. It also outperforms PCA and an autoencoder in comparisons against unsupervised compressors.
Dongfang Zhao
May 19, 2026cs.LG

A Family of Divergence Measures for Evaluating the Reconstruction Quality of Explainable Ensemble Trees

Validating interpretable surrogate models for ensemble learners requires measuring agreement between the ensemble's internal representation and its surrogate approximation, rather than mere association. Correlation-based approaches are scale-invariant and fail to detect systematic discrepancies in co-occurrence structure. We propose a statistical framework grounded in the agreement-association distinction, centered on the normalized Loss of Interpretability (nLoI). Rooted in the Cressie-Read power divergence family with lambda equal to 2, the nLoI admits a closed-form decomposition into within-node and between-node components, providing a unique diagnostic capability to identify precisely where and why reconstruction fails. The framework incorporates four complementary measures capturing distinct structural facets of approximation quality. A unified permutation testing procedure delivers valid inference for all measures within a single resampling pass. Theoretical properties, including boundedness and symmetry, are established for each metric. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical evaluations confirm exact Type I error control and demonstrate that these measures detect reconstruction fidelity gradients invisible to correlation-based alternatives. The framework is developed and illustrated in the context of Explainable Ensemble Trees (E2Tree), and empirical evaluation on three benchmark datasets illustrates the practical utility of the framework.
Massimo Aria, Agostino Gnasso, Carmela Iorio
May 18, 2026stat.ML

Multi-Head Attention as Ensemble Nadaraya-Watson Estimation: Variance Reduction, Decorrelation, and Optimal Head Diversity

We develop a rigorous statistical theory of multi-head attention (MHA) as an ensemble of Nadaraya-Watson (NW) kernel regression estimators. Building on the algebraic identity between single-head softmax attention and the NW estimator, we prove that MHA is a structured ensemble of H NW estimators, each operating in a distinct learned projection subspace of the key space. We derive an explicit Bias-Variance-Covariance decomposition of the MHA mean squared error, showing that variance reduction depends not merely on the number of heads H but fundamentally on the decorrelation of head outputs. Decorrelation is governed by the principal angles between learned projection subspaces: orthogonal projections yield maximum variance reduction; aligned projections yield none. We introduce the Head Diversity Index (HDI), a computable spectral measure of inter-head decorrelation, and prove that MHA mean squared error is monotonically decreasing in HDI. This provides the first rigorous theoretical explanation for the empirically observed specialization of attention heads. Under a fixed total-dimension budget D = H * d_k, we solve the optimal head-dimension allocation problem, deriving the MSE-minimizing pair (H*, d_k*) from data distribution and regression smoothness. The solution yields a new architectural scaling law: the optimal per-head dimension grows logarithmically with training set size, while the optimal number of heads grows nearly linearly with the total budget D. Our framework unifies three strands of prior work: the NW theory of single-head attention, the general weighting theory for ensemble learning, and the decorrelation-variance-reduction isomorphism between biological and computational ensembles. Multi-head attention is the Transformer's instantiation of a universal principle: identical agents plus diversity-enforcing mechanisms yields emergent optimality.
Ernest Fokoué
May 18, 2026cs.LG

Ensembling Tabular Foundation Models - A Diversity Ceiling And A Calibration Trap

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) now match or beat tuned gradient-boosted trees on a growing fraction of tabular tasks, but no single TFM wins on every dataset. Ensembling is the go to fix here, and it works less well than expected. Six modern TFMs form a near-redundant pool: their mean pairwise Q-statistic is 0.9610.961, close enough to 11 that any convex combination is bounded above. We benchmark six ensemble strategies over six TFMs on 153 OpenML classification tasks. The best ensemble, two-level cascade stacking, buys +0.18%+0.18\% accuracy over the strongest single TFM at 253×253\times the compute. A Friedman and Nemenyi analysis places three ensembles and the best base TFM in a single equivalence group; three other ensembles are significantly \emph{worse} than the best base. Stacking with a logistic-regression meta-learner is the most striking case: competitive accuracy and ROC-AUC, the worst log-loss rank among the ensembles. The meta-learner improves accuracy by sharpening class boundaries, which destroys calibration. We recommend greedy selection as the practical default.
Aditya Tanna, Yash Desai, Pratinav Seth +3
May 18, 2026cs.CV

Lost in the Folds: When Cross-Validation Is Not a Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Estimation

Ensemble disagreement is widely used as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty in medical image segmentation. In practice, many studies form ensembles via K-fold cross-validation (CV), yet refer to them as ``deep ensembles'' (DE). Because CV members are trained on different data subsets, their disagreement mixes seed-driven variability with data-exposure effects, which can change how uncertainty should be interpreted. We audit recent segmentation uncertainty studies and find that terminology--implementation mismatches are common. We then compare a standard 5-fold CV ensemble to a 5-member DE (fixed training set, different random seeds) under otherwise identical configurations on three multi-rater segmentation datasets spanning three modalities. We evaluate uncertainty for calibration, failure detection, ambiguity modeling, and robustness under distribution shift. DE match segmentation accuracy while improving calibration and failure detection, whereas CV ensembles sometimes correlate more strongly with inter-rater variability on the studied datasets. Thus, ensemble construction should be chosen to match the research question: DE for reliability-oriented use (e.g., selective referral/failure detection) and CV ensembles as a proxy for ambiguity. We provide a lightweight nnU-Net modification enabling DE training within the default pipeline.
Tristan Kirscher, Markus Bujotzek, Yannick Kirchhoff +5
May 18, 2026cs.CV

Embedded ConvNet Ensembles: A Lightweight Approach to Recognize Arabic Handwritten Characters

Arabic Handwritten Character Recognition (AHCR) has recently advanced significantly with deep Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets). However, many models in the literature are deep and computationally expensive in terms of parameters and FLOPs, limiting their deployment on resource-constrained devices, which are increasingly common. This study addresses this gap by proposing a combination of lightweight embedded ConvNet models and ensemble learning techniques. Extensive experiments were conducted to identify best practices in AHCR, considering training hyperparameters, learning strategies, model choices, and ensemble methods. Results show that embedded models can achieve accuracy comparable to, or even surpassing, heavier architectures. Ensemble learning further enhances performance with only modest computational overhead, particularly under challenging training scenarios. Among the ensembling strategies, soft voting yielded the best overall results.
Mohsine El Khayati, Rachid Elouahbi, Abdelillah Semma
May 18, 2026cs.CV

Patch Ensembles for Robust Salmon Re-Identification with Weak Trajectory Labels

Salmon re-identification in commercial net-pens is challenging due to large populations, which impose strict accuracy requirements and make large-scale labeled data acquisition infeasible. Trajectory IDs can be used as proxy labels, but this introduces trajectory-ID bias. To address these challenges, we propose a patch-based re-identification framework that fuses patch-level predictions into a salmon identity decision. A key component is the prediction of the salmon's lateral line, enabling extraction of texture-anchored patches and patch slices. To enable realistic evaluation, we introduce an experimental setup using multiple cameras placed 6 m apart, allowing the same fish to be recorded in different trajectories. This enables the construction of a cross-camera test set through manual match confirmation. Our ensemble approach outperforms the full-image baseline in same-trajectory validation (0.932 to 0.965 mAP) and cross-camera testing (0.609 to 0.860 mAP). The substantial improvements in the cross-camera setting demonstrate improved generalizability and robustness. Code and data: https://github.com/espenbh/salmon-reid-patch-ensemble.
Espen Uri Høgstedt, Christian Schellewald, Annette Stahl +1
May 15, 2026cs.LG

Automatic Unsupervised Ensemble Outlier Model Selection--Extended Version

Unsupervised outlier detection is attractive because it eliminates the need for labeled data. Moreover, forming multi-model ensembles can improve detection robustness. However, composing an ensemble without labeled data is challenging. Naively composed ensembles can suffer from ensemble saturation, where redundant or unreliable detection models degrade performance and incur unnecessary computation. We propose MetaEns, an automatic unsupervised framework for selecting ensembles of outlier detection models. Using labeled meta-datasets, MetaEns learns a model that predicts marginal ensemble gains, estimating the expected improvement from adding a candidate model to a partially constructed ensemble. At test time, this learned signal is combined with a submodular-inspired proxy objective that enforces diminishing returns through diversity-aware discounting and family-level risk regularization, thereby enabling greedy sequential selection with adaptive early stopping. As a result, MetaEns constructs compact, high-quality ensembles without access to ground-truth labels. Experiments on 39 real-world datasets show that MetaEns consistently outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised selectors and ensemble baselines, achieving higher average precision while using fewer models.
Hong-Phuc Phan, Tuan-Anh Vu, Tung Kieu +3
May 14, 2026cs.SD

Text-Dependent Speaker Verification (TdSV) Challenge 2024: Team Naive System Report

This paper presents a system for the 2024 Text-Dependent Speaker Verification (TdSV) Challenge. The system achieved a Minimum Detection Cost Function (MinDCF) of 0.0461 and an Equal Error Rate (EER) of 1.3%. Our approach focused on adapting existing state-of-the-art neural networks, ResNet-TDNN and NeXt-TDNN, originally trained on the VoxCeleb dataset. This strategy was chosen because of the limited challenge duration and the available resources at the time. In addition, we designed a lightweight and resource-efficient model, EfficientNet-A0, trained specifically on the challenge dataset to improve adaptation and strengthen the ensemble approach. Our system combines advanced neural architectures, extensive data augmentation, and optimised hyperparameters. These components helped achieve strong performance in text-dependent speaker verification. The results also demonstrate the effectiveness of multi-model ensemble learning for both speaker and phrase verification.
Amir Mohammad Rostami, Pourya Jafarzadeh
May 14, 2026cs.LG

LoMETab: Beyond Rank-1 Ensembles for Tabular Deep Learning

Recent tabular learning benchmarks increasingly show a tight performance cluster rather than a clear hierarchy among leading methods, spanning gradient boosted decision trees, attention-based architectures, and implicit ensembles such as TabM. As benchmark gains plateau, a complementary goal is to understand and control the mechanisms that make simple neural tabular models competitive. We propose LoMETab, a rank-rr generalization of multiplicative implicit ensembles. LoMETab lifts the rank-1 BatchEnsemble/TabM modulation to a rank-rr identity-residual Hadamard family by parameterizing each member weight as Wk=W⊙(1+AkBk⊤)W_k = W \odot (1 + A_kB_k^\top), where WW is shared and (Ak,Bk)(A_k, B_k) are member-specific low-rank factors. This exposes two practical diversity-control axes: the adapter rank rr and the initialization scale σinitσ_{\mathrm{init}}, and we prove that for r≥2r \ge 2 this generalization strictly enlarges BatchEnsemble's hypothesis class. Empirically, we show that this added capacity manifests as measurable predictive diversity after training: on representative classification datasets, LoMETab sustains higher pairwise KL than an additive low-rank ablation, and (r,σinit)(r, σ_{\mathrm{init}}) provides broad control over pairwise KL, varying by up to several orders of magnitude across configurations. The induced diversity is reflected in task-appropriate output-level measures: argmax disagreement for classification and ambiguity for regression, indicating that the control extends beyond pairwise KL to decision- and output-level member variation. Finally, experiments sweeping over adapter rank rr and initialization scale σinitσ_{\mathrm{init}} reveal that predictive performance is dataset-dependent over the (r,σinit)(r, σ_{\mathrm{init}}) grid, supporting LoMETab as a controllable family of implicit ensembles rather than a fixed rank-1 construction.
Changryeol Choi, Hyewon Park, Yujin Kwon +1
May 13, 2026cs.LG

bde: A Python Package for Bayesian Deep Ensembles via MILE

bde is a user-friendly Python package for Bayesian Deep Ensembles with a particular focus on tabular data. Built on an efficient JAX implementation of the sampling-based inference method Microcanonical Langevin Ensembles (MILE), it provides scikit-learn compatible estimators for fast training, efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and uncertainty quantification in both regression and classification tasks.
Vyron Arvanitis, Angelos Aslanidis, Emanuel Sommer +1
May 13, 2026cs.LG

Comparative Evaluation of Machine Learning Approaches for Minority-Class Financial Distress Prediction Under Class Imbalance Constraints

Financial distress prediction remains a significant challenge in enterprise risk analysis due to the highly imbalanced nature of real-world financial datasets, where bankrupt or distressed firms typically constitute only a small minority of observations. This paper presents a comparative evaluation of classical statistical methods, ensemble learning approaches, and exploratory neural models for minority-class financial distress prediction under class imbalance constraints. The study incorporates structured preprocessing, imbalance mitigation using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), comparative evaluation across ensemble learning architectures including XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and explainability analysis using SHAP-based feature attribution methods. Experimental evaluation demonstrates that gradient-boosting approaches achieved improved minority-class sensitivity relative to baseline statistical classifiers under severe imbalance conditions. The workflow additionally emphasises reproducibility, interpretability, auditability, and governance-oriented machine learning evaluation within enterprise financial risk environments. The work is positioned as an applied engineering evaluation intended to support reproducible and interpretable machine learning workflows for financial distress prediction under severe class imbalance constraints.
Karan Sehgal, Khawar Naveed Bhatti
May 13, 2026cs.AI

Quantifying Sensitivity for Tree Ensembles: A symbolic and compositional approach

Decision tree ensembles (DTE) are a popular model for a wide range of AI classification tasks, used in multiple safety critical domains, and hence verifying properties on these models has been an active topic of study over the last decade. One such verification question is the problem of sensitivity, which asks, given a DTE, whether a small change in subset of features can lead to misclassification of the input. In this work, our focus is to build a quantitative notion of sensitivity, tailored to DTEs, by discretizing the input space of the model and enumerating the regions which are susceptible to sensitivity. We propose a novel algorithmic technique that can perform this computation efficiently, within a certified error and confidence bound. Our approach is based on encoding the problem as an algebraic decision diagram (ADD), and further splitting it into subproblems that can be solved efficiently and make the computation compositional and scalable. We evaluate the performance of our technique over benchmarks of varying size in terms of number of trees and depth, comparing it against the performance of model counters over the same problem encoding. Experimental results show that our tool XCount achieves significant speedup over other approaches and can scale well with the increasing sizes of the ensembles.
Ajinkya Naik, Chaitanya Garg, S. Akshay +2
May 13, 2026cs.LG

ENSEMBITS: an alphabet of protein conformational ensembles

Protein structure tokenizers (PSTs) are workhorses in protein language modeling, function prediction, and evolutionary analysis. However, existing PSTs only capture local geometry of static structures, and miss the correlated motions and alternative conformational states revealed by protein ensembles. Here we introduce Ensembits, the first tokenizer of protein conformational ensembles. Ensembits address challenges inherent to tokenizing dynamics: deriving informative geometric descriptors across conformations, permutation-invariance encoding of variable-size ensembles, and conquering sparsity in dynamics data. Trained with a Residual VQ-VAE using a frame distillation objective on a large molecular dynamics corpus, Ensembits outperforms all related methods on RMSF prediction, and is the strongest standalone structural tokenizer on an token-conditioned ANOVA test on per-residue motion amplitude. Ensembits further matches or exceeds static tokenizers on EC, GO, binding site/affinity prediction, and zero-shot mutation-effect prediction despite using far less pretraining data. Notably, the distillation objective enables Ensembits to predict dynamics token from one single predicted structure, which alleviates dynamics data sparsity. As the field moves from static structure prediction toward ensemble generation, Ensembits offer the discrete vocabulary needed to bring dynamics into protein language modeling and design.
Kaiwen Shi, Carlos Oliver
May 13, 2026cs.LG

Robust and Explainable Bicuspid Aortic Valve Diagnosis Using Stacked Ensembles on Echocardiography

Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is the first-line imaging modality for diagnosing bicuspid aortic valve (BAV), yet diagnostic performance varies with operator expertise and image quality. We developed an explainable AI model that distinguishes BAV from tricuspid aortic valves (TAV) using routinely acquired parasternal long-axis (PLAX) cine loops. A multi-backbone video ensemble was trained and evaluated using a leakage-aware, stratified outer cross-validation protocol on N=90N{=}90 patient studies (48 BAV, 42 TAV). Across fixed outer splits and 10 random seeds, the calibrated stacked ensemble achieved an outer-CV F1-score of 0.9070.907 and recall of 0.8770.877. Frame-level Grad-CAM localized salient evidence to the aortic root and leaflet plane, while globally aggregated SHAP values quantified each video backbone's contribution to the stacked prediction, enabling transparent, case-level auditability. These findings indicate that PLAX-based video ensembles can support reliable BAV/TAV classification from routine echocardiographic cine loops and may facilitate earlier detection in non-specialist or resource-limited clinical settings.
Christos Chrysanthos Nikolaidis, Vasileios Sachpekidis, Nikolas Moustakidis +2
May 13, 2026cs.CV

X-Restormer++: 1st Place Solution for the UG2+ CVPR 2026 All-Weather Restoration Challenge

In this work, we present our winning solution for the 8th UG2+ Challenge (CVPR 2026) Track 1: Image Restoration under All-weather Conditions. Our method is built upon the X-Restormer baseline, which captures both channel-wise global dependencies and spatially-local structural information through its dual-attention design (Multi-DConv Head Transposed Attention and Overlapping Cross-Attention), augmented with the spatially-adaptive input scaling mechanism from Restormer-Plus. We adopt a two-stage training strategy with dual-model ensemble inference. In the first stage, Model B is trained from scratch on a large-scale diverse dataset randomly sampled from the FoundIR training set (approximately 800 GB out of 4.84 TB), covering five degradation types: blur, haze, rain, snow, and composite conditions such as co-occurring rain and haze. In the second stage, Model A is fine-tuned on the WeatherStream dataset (rain and snow splits) using Model B's final checkpoint as pretrained initialization, enabling efficient domain adaptation with a substantially smaller dataset. To better preserve structural details during training, we propose a novel Gradient-Guided Edge-Aware (GGEA) Loss, which applies Sobel operators to the ground-truth image to construct a spatially adaptive weight map that assigns higher supervision to edge and high-frequency regions. This is incorporated alongside L1 and Multi-Scale SSIM losses in a unified training objective. At inference time, predictions from the two models are fused via a weighted average, out = 0.4 x outA + 0.6 x outB, where the higher weight assigned to Model B reflects its stronger generalization ability from large-scale pretraining. With these strategies, our proposed method successfully ranks 1st in the challenge.
Youwei Pan, Leilei Cao, Yingfang Zhu +1
May 13, 2026cs.CV

Reducing Bias and Variance: Generative Semantic Guidance and Bi-Layer Ensemble for Image Clustering

Image clustering aims to partition unlabeled image datasets into distinct groups. A core aspect of this task is constructing and leveraging prior knowledge to guide the clustering process. Recent approaches introduce semantic descriptions as prior information, most of which typically relying on matching-based techniques with predefined vocabularies. However, the limited matching space restricts their adaptability to downstream clustering tasks. Moreover, these methods primarily focus on reducing bias to improve performance, frequently overlooking the importance of variance reduction. To address these limitations, we propose GSEC (Image Clustering based on Generative Semantic Guidance and Bi-Layer Ensemble), a framework designed to reduce bias through generative semantic guidance and mitigate variance via ensemble learning. Our method employs Multimodal Large Language Models to generate semantic descriptions and derive image embeddings via weighted averaging. Additionally, a bi-layer ensemble strategy integrates cross-modal information through BatchEnsemble in the inner layer and aligns outputs via an alignment mechanism in the outer layer. Comparative experiments demonstrate that GSEC outperforms 18 state-of-the-art methods across six benchmark datasets, while further analysis confirms its effectiveness in simultaneously reducing both bias and variance. The code is available at https://github.com/2017LI/GSEC.git.
Feijiang Li, Zhenxiong Li, Jieting Wang +3
May 12, 2026cs.LG

Pitfalls of Unlabeled Disagreement-Based Drift Detection in Streaming Tree Ensembles

Detecting concept drift in high-speed data streams remains challenging, particularly when models must operate on unlabeled data and avoid false alarms caused by benign shifts. While disagreement-based uncertainty has shown promise in neural networks, its adaptation to ensembles of incremental decision trees (IDTs) remains largely unexplored. We investigate this approach by constructing batch-specific disagreement measures via label flipping in ensemble members and evaluating their effectiveness for drift detection in tabular data streams. Our experiments show that, although this method performs well in ensembles of multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs), it consistently underperforms loss-based detectors when applied to IDTs. We attribute this behavior to the intrinsic rigidity of IDTs: learning primarily through structural expansion, with limited parameter adaptation, restricts model plasticity and prevents disagreement from reliably reflecting learning potential. Recent work on restructuring IDTs using their intrinsic decomposition into non-overlapping rules offers a promising direction for improving adaptability.
Lara Sá Neves, Afonso Lourenço, Lizy K. John +1
May 12, 2026cs.LG

Multi-Narrow Transformation as a Single-Model Ensemble: Boundary Conditions, Mechanisms, and Failure Modes

Single-model ensembles (SMEs) have attracted attention as a way to approximate some of the benefits of deep ensembles within a single network. However, under an approximately matched parameter budget, it remains unclear whether model capacity should be concentrated in a single wide pathway or redistributed into many narrow and independent members. We investigate this question through the Multi-Narrow (MN) transformation, which converts a baseline CNN into an SME of narrow, path-wise independent branches while approximately preserving the dominant parameter budget. We systematically compare Single-Wide and Multi-Narrow configurations across different training-data regimes, architectures, and datasets. The results show that the effectiveness of MN is strongly data-dependent: weakly partitioned or baseline-wide models are preferable in data-rich settings, whereas highly partitioned MN models consistently outperform the baseline in low-data settings. This tendency is reproduced across multiple CNN architectures and image-classification datasets, suggesting that it is not specific to a single benchmark or model family. Analysis of internal representations shows that high-MN models learn more diverse and less redundant path-wise features. In low-data regimes, this diversity is broadly utilized and improves generalization, whereas in data-rich regimes, training becomes imbalanced and prediction is dominated by a small subset of paths. These findings clarify when and why Multi-Narrow transformation is effective, and provide practical guidance for allocating model capacity between width and member multiplicity under a limited budget.
Tatsuhito Hasegawa, Taisei Tanaka
May 11, 2026cs.CL

ICT-NLP at SemEval-2026 Task 3: Less Is More -- Multilingual Encoder with Joint Training and Adaptive Ensemble for Dimensional Aspect Sentiment Regression

This paper describes our system to SemEval-2026 Task 3 Track A Subtask 1 on Dimensional Aspect Sentiment Regression (DimASR). We propose a lightweight and resource-efficient system built entirely on multilingual pre-trained encoders, without relying on LLMs or external corpora. We adopt joint multilingual and multi-domain training to facilitate cross-lingual transfer and alleviate data sparsity, introduce a bounded regression transformation that improves training stability while constraining predictions within the valid range, and employ an adaptive ensemble strategy via subset search to reduce prediction variance. Experimental results demonstrate that our system achieves strong and consistent performance, ranking 1st on zho-res, 2nd on zho-lap, and 3rd on jpn-hot, with all remaining datasets placed within the top half of participating teams.
Liyuan Huang, Jiawei He, Wutao Shen +2
May 10, 2026cs.GT

Efficient Ensemble Selection from Binary and Pairwise Feedback

Organizations increasingly deploy multiple AI systems across task domains, but selecting a small, high-performing ensemble can require costly model calls, benchmark runs, and human evaluation. We study this selection problem as a distributional variant of multiwinner voting: tasks are drawn from an unknown domain distribution, each task induces feedback over candidate experts, and a committee's value on a task is determined by its best-performing member. We analyze both binary feedback, for tasks with correct/incorrect outcomes, and pairwise feedback, for tasks where candidate outputs are compared by preference. In the binary setting, the induced objective is coverage. We give exhaustive-elicitation baselines and matching worst-case query lower bounds, and we design a failure-conditioned greedy algorithm that preserves the standard (1−1/e)(1-1/e) guarantee while obtaining instance-dependent query savings. In the pairwise setting, we study θθ-winning committees. We show that full-information optimization admits a PTAS but no EPTAS under Gap-ETH, and that the objective is monotone but not submodular. This motivates a weighted ordinal coverage relaxation, which is submodular and supports a failure-conditioned greedy oracle under pairwise feedback. We then convert this oracle back into θθ-type guarantees through finite-family auditing or a minimax wrapper. We also provide small-scale LLM experiments illustrating the predicted query savings and the role of complementarity in committee selection.
Tzeh Yuan Neoh, Nicholas Teh, Je Qin Chooi +2
May 9, 2026cs.CL

Improving Lexical Difficulty Prediction with Context-Aligned Contrastive Learning and Ridge Ensembling

Lexical difficulty prediction is a fundamental problem in language learning and readability assessment, requiring models to estimate word difficulty across different first-language (L1) backgrounds. However, existing approaches rely on regression-only training with scalar supervision, which does not explicitly structure the representation space, limiting their ability to capture cross-lingual alignment and ordinal difficulty. To mitigate these issues, we propose Context-Aligned Contrastive Regression, which integrates Ridge regression ensemble with two complementary objectives, i.e., Cross-View Context and Ordinal Soft Contrastive Learning. Experiments on three L1 datasets show that (i) contrastive objectives improve cross-lingual representation alignment while preserving language-specific nuances, (ii) the learned representations capture the ordinal structure of lexical difficulty, and (iii) the ensemble effectively mitigates systematic biases of individual models, leading to more stable performance across difficulty levels.
Wicaksono Leksono Muhamad, Joanito Agili Lopo, Tsamarah Rana Nugraha +2
May 8, 2026cs.LG

Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation with Continuous Context

We study Bayesian Optimisation (BO) in settings where the objective function is influenced by uncontrollable environmental contexts governed by an unknown probability distribution. In practice, the contextual distribution must be estimated from empirical data, a process that inherently introduces distributional mismatch, producing sub-optimal results. While Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) provides a framework to mitigate these risks, existing robust BO methods frequently suffer from high computational complexity, rely on discretisation of continuous context spaces, or impose restrictive assumptions on the structure of the ambiguity set. To overcome these limitations, we propose Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation (EDRBO). Our framework leverages the expressive power of ensemble surrogate models to approximate the black-box function while simultaneously accounting for contextual uncertainty. By utilising Wasserstein ball as ambiguity sets, EDRBO provides a robustified acquisition function that remains computationally tractable and natively handles continuous context spaces. We establish a rigorous theoretical foundation for our approach by proving sublinear cumulative regret guarantees of order O(γTT)\mathcal{O}(γ_T \sqrt{T}), where γTγ_T represents the maximum information gain within the ensemble. Finally, we provide extensive empirical evaluations that corroborate our theory and demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of EDRBO.
Tigran Ramazyan, Denis Derkach
May 8, 2026cs.CL

MIPIAD: Multilingual Indirect Prompt Injection Attack Defense with Qwen -- TF-IDF Hybrid and Meta-Ensemble Learning

Indirect prompt injection remains a persistent weakness in retrieval-augmented and tool-using LLM systems, and the problem becomes harder to characterise in multilingual settings. We present MIPIAD, a defense framework evaluated on English and Bangla that combines a sequence classifier fine-tuned from Qwen2.5-1.5B via LoRA (XLPID), TF-IDF lexical features, and validation-tuned ensembling through late fusion, stacking, and gradient boosting. The framework is evaluated on a synthetic benchmark built from BIPIA(Yi et al., 2023) templates spanning five task families -- email, table, QA, abstract, and code-comprising over 1.43 million generated samples, with train and test splits using mutually exclusive attack categories. Across the experiments, lexical signals prove strong (TF-IDF+SVM F1=0.77), and the hybrid XLPID+TF-IDF ensemble achieves the best overall F1 (0.9205) while the Boosting Ensemble achieves the best AUROC (0.9378). Ensemble methods consistently reduce the English-Bangla cross-lingual gap relative to standalone neural models. The pipeline is designed for extensibility: NLLB-200 supports over 200 languages and XLPID's multilingual backbone can be retargeted to additional languages without architectural changes; empirical validation is currently limited to English and Bangla
Al Muhit Muhtadi, Mostafa Rifat Tazwar
May 7, 2026cs.LG

When Does ℓ2\ell_2-Boosting Overfit Benignly? High-Dimensional Risk Asymptotics and the ℓ1\ell_1 Implicit Bias

Benign overfitting is well-characterized in ℓ2\ell_2 geometries, but its behavior under the ℓ1\ell_1 implicit bias of greedy ensembles remains challenging. The analytical barrier stems from the non-linear coupling of coordinate selection thresholds, which invalidates standard spectral resolvent tools. To isolate this algorithmic bias, we characterize the high-dimensional risk of continuous-time ℓ2\ell_2-Boosting over pp features and nn samples. By coupling the Convex Gaussian Minimax Theorem with delicate asymptotic expansions of double-sided truncated Gaussian moments, we analytically resolve the non-smooth ℓ1\ell_1 interpolant. Under an isotropic pure-noise model, we prove that benign overfitting fails at the linear rate: greedy selection localizes noise into sparse active sets, and the excess variance decays at a logarithmic rate Θ(σ2/log⁡(p/n))Θ(σ^2/\log(p/n)) for noise variance σ2σ^2. We remark that while this localization mechanism should persist in the presence of signals, the exact signal-noise decomposition remains an open problem. For spiked-isotropic designs with k∗k^* head eigenvalues and r2=p−k∗r_2 = p - k^* tail dimensions, the risk converges to zero when r2≫nr_{2} \gg n, but only at a logarithmic rate Θ(σ2/log⁡(r2/n))Θ(σ^2/\log(r_2/n)), which is slower than the linear decay observed in ℓ2\ell_2 geometries. To avoid this slow convergence, we analyze the non-smooth subdifferential dynamics of the boosting flow. This yields a tuning-free early stopping rule that, under a bounded ℓ1\ell_1-path condition, recovers the Lasso basic inequality and attains the minimax-optimal empirical prediction rate for ℓ1\ell_1-bounded signals.
Ye Su, Jian Li, Yong Liu
May 7, 2026cs.LG

PACE: Prune-And-Compress Ensemble Models

Ensemble models achieve state-of-the-art performance on prediction tasks, but usually require aggregating a large number of weak learners. This can hinder deployment, interpretability, and downstream tasks such as robustness verification. Remedies to this issue fall into two main camps: pruning, which discards redundant learners, and compression, which generates new ones from scratch. We introduce PACE, a framework that interleaves these paradigms in a two-phase strategy. First, new learners are actively generated via a theoretically grounded procedure to enhance the diversity of the initial ensemble. When no more relevant learners can be found, a second phase of pruning is performed on this enriched ensemble. During both operations, PACE allows fine control on the faithfulness to the original ensemble. Experiments show that our method outperforms prior pruning and compression methods while offering principled control of faithfulness guarantees.
Fabian Akkerman, Julien Ferry, Théo Guyard +1
May 7, 2026cs.CL

YEZE at SemEval-2026 Task 9: Detecting Multilingual, Multicultural and Multievent Online Polarization via Heterogeneous Ensembling

This paper presents our system for SemEval-2026 Task 9: Detecting Multilingual, Multicultural and Multievent Online Polarization, which identifies polarized social media content in 22 languages through three subtasks: binary detection, target classification, and manifestation identification. We propose a heterogeneous ensemble of multilingual pretrained models, combining XLM-RoBERTa-large and mDeBERTa-v3-base. We investigate techniques such as multi-task learning, translation-based data augmentation, and class weighting to improve classification performance under severe label imbalance. Our findings indicate that independent task modeling combined with class weighting is more effective.
Fengze Guo, Yue Chang
May 7, 2026cs.LG

Enabling Federated Inference via Unsupervised Consensus Embedding

Cooperative inference across independently deployed machine learning models is increasingly desirable in distributed environments, as there is a growing need to leverage multiple models while keeping their data and model parameters private. However, existing cooperative frameworks typically rely on sharing input data, model parameters, or a common encoder, which limits their applicability in privacy-sensitive or cross-organizational settings. To address this challenge, we propose Consensus Embedding-based Federated Inference (CE-FI), a framework that enables pretrained models to cooperate at inference time without sharing model parameters or raw inputs and without assuming a common encoder. CE-FI introduces two components: a Consensus Embedding (CE) layer that maps heterogeneous intermediate representations into a common embedding space, and a Cooperative Output (CO) layer that produces predictions from these embeddings. Both layers are trained using shared unlabeled data only, so the cooperative stage does not require additional labeled data. Experiments on image classification benchmarks -- CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 -- under diverse non-IID conditions show that CE-FI consistently outperforms solo inference and performs comparably to conventional methods that require stronger sharing assumptions. Additional evaluations on text and time-series tasks indicate applicability beyond image classification, although performance depends on the ensemble strategy. Further analysis identifies representation alignment as the primary bottleneck.
Yui Hashimoto, Takayuki Nishio, Yuichi Kitagawa +1
May 6, 2026cs.CL

RaguTeam at SemEval-2026 Task 8: Meno and Friends in a Judge-Orchestrated LLM Ensemble for Faithful Multi-Turn Response Generation

We present our winning system for TaskB (generation with reference passages) in SemEval-2026 Task8: MTRAGEval. Our method is a heterogeneous ensemble of seven LLMs with two prompting variants, where a GPT-4o-mini judge selects the best candidate per instance. We ranked 1st out of 26 teams, achieving a conditioned harmonic mean of 0.7827 and outperforming the strongest baseline (gpt-oss-120b, 0.6390). Ablations show that diversity in model families, scales, and prompting strategies is essential, with the ensemble consistently beating any single model. We also introduce Meno-Lite-0.1, a 7B domain-adapted model with a strong cost--performance trade-off, and analyse MTRAGEval, highlighting annotation limitations and directions for improvement. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/RaguTeam/ragu_mtrag_semeval
Ivan Bondarenko, Roman Derunets, Oleg Sedukhin +3
May 5, 2026cs.LG

Constrained Extreme Gradient Boosting for Adapting Reduced-Order Models

High-fidelity simulations, such as computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis, are essential for modeling complex engineering systems but are often prohibitively expensive for tasks including parametric studies, optimization, and real-time control. Projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) alleviate this cost by projecting the governing dynamics onto low-dimensional subspaces. However, their performance can deteriorate under parameter variation, motivating the need for adaptive basis construction. In this work, we propose a constrained ensemble learning framework, termed Constrained Extreme Gradient Boosting (cXGBoost), for predicting Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) bases as functions of system parameters. The approach leverages a geometric representation of subspaces on the Grassmann manifold, which are mapped to a Euclidean space to enable efficient regression using gradient boosting trees. A norm constraint is imposed during training to ensure the validity of the inverse mapping and preserve the geometric structure of the predicted subspaces. The proposed method is evaluated on four numerical examples, including fluid dynamics and wave propagation problems, demonstrating its ability to accurately predict parameter-dependent bases while maintaining robustness across nonlinear regimes. These results highlight the potential of combining geometric learning with constrained ensemble methods for scalable and reliable reduced-order modeling of high-dimensional parametric systems.
Melika Baghi, Xiao Liu, Kamran Paynabar
May 4, 2026cs.LG

Pose Tracking with a Foundation Pose Model and an Ensemble Directional Kalman Filter

This paper introduces the ensemble directional Kalman filter (EnDKF), an ensemble-based Kalman filtering approach for pose tracking that jointly estimates an object's position and attitude using ideas from directional statistics. The EnDKF integrates a unit-quaternion attitude representation to move beyond canonical Kalman filter mean and covariance assumptions that poorly capture directional uncertainty. Experiments on a synthetic constant-velocity constant-angular-velocity system and a digital-twin head-tracking scenario using the FoundationPose algorithm demonstrate a significant reduction in error as opposed to merely using measurements.
Tianlu Lu, Asif Sijan, Thomas Noh +2
May 3, 2026cs.CV

Dual-branch Robust Unlearnable Examples

Unlearnable examples (UEs) aim to compromise model training by injecting imperceptible perturbations to clean samples. However, existing UE schemes exhibit limited robustness against advanced defenses due to their heuristic design or narrowly scoped domain perturbations. To address this, we propose \texttt{DUNE}, a \underline{\textbf{D}}ual-branch \underline{\textbf{UN}}learnable \underline{\textbf{E}}nsemble perturbation optimization approach. Specifically, \texttt{DUNE} separately optimizes perturbations in the spatial and color domains to establish the mapping between perturbations and shift-induced labels. This design extends the perturbation domain to increase noise intensity for improving robustness and drives the models to learn perturbation-oriented features with degraded generalization, thereby achieving unlearnability. To strengthen \texttt{DUNE}'s performance, we further propose an unlearnability-enhancing ensemble strategy that aggregates diverse pre-trained models during the dual-branch optimization. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets CIFAR-10 and ImageNet verify that \texttt{DUNE}'s robustness outperforms 12 SOTA UE schemes under 7 mainstream defenses, yielding a lower average test accuracy of 14.95% to 50.82%.
Xianlong Wang, Hangtao Zhang, Wenbo Pan +4
May 2, 2026cs.LG

Perturb and Correct: Post-Hoc Ensembles using Affine Redundancy

Models that are indistinguishable on in-distribution data can behave very differently under distribution shift. We introduce Perturb-and-Correct (P&C), a post-hoc method for constructing epistemically diverse predictors from a single pretrained network. P&C applies random hidden layer perturbations with a least-squares correction in the subsequent affine layer, producing predictors that agree on calibration data while remaining free to disagree away from it. We analyze this mechanism through the post-correction residual and its first-order sensitivity: the residual is controlled near the calibration distribution by a leverage term, while corrected sensitivity grows as inputs deviate from the calibration geometry. Empirically, P&C achieves a strong ID/OOD tradeoff across MuJoCo dynamics prediction and CIFAR-10 OOD detection, matching or outperforming standard post-hoc baselines while requiring only a single pretrained model. Our findings highlight the potential in further exploiting overparameterization as a strength of deep learning models.
Eleanor Quint
May 1, 2026cs.LG

Rethinking LLM Ensembling from the Perspective of Mixture Models

Model ensembling is a well-established technique for improving the performance of machine learning models. Conventionally, this involves averaging the output distributions of multiple models and selecting the most probable label. This idea has been naturally extended to large language models (LLMs), yielding improved performance but incurring substantial computational cost. This inefficiency stems from directly applying conventional ensemble implementation to LLMs, which require a separate forward pass for each model to explicitly compute the ensemble distribution. In this paper, we propose the Mixture-model-like Ensemble (ME). By reinterpreting the ensemble as a mixture model, ME stochastically selects a single model at each step to generate the next token, thereby avoiding the need to explicitly compute the full ensemble distribution. ME is mathematically equivalent to sampling from the ensemble distribution, but requires invoking only one model, making it 1.78x-2.68x faster than conventional ensembling. Furthermore, this perspective connects LLM ensembling and token-level routing methods, suggesting that LLM ensembling is a special case of routing methods. Our findings open new avenues for efficient LLM ensembling and motivate further exploration of token-level routing strategies for LLMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/Kamichanw/Mixture-model-like-Ensemble.
Jiale Fu, Yuchu Jiang, Peijun Wu +3
May 1, 2026cs.LG

Conformalized Quantum DeepONet Ensembles: Towards Scalable Operator Learning with Distribution-Free Guarantees

Operator learning enables fast surrogate modelling of high-dimensional dynamical systems, but existing approaches face two fundamental limitations: the quadratic cost of dense neural layers and unreliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical settings. We propose Conformalized Quantum DeepONet Ensembles, a framework that addresses both challenges simultaneously. Using Quantum Orthogonal Neural Networks (QOrthoNNs), we characterize the resource regime in which their established O~(n)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(n) hidden-layer running-time scaling improves on the O(n2)\mathcal{O}(n^2) cost of a classical dense layer. To quantify uncertainty, we combine ensemble predictions with split conformal calibration. For a new input-output function pair jointly exchangeable with the calibration pairs, we prove a finite-sample, distribution-free lower bound on the expected fraction of covered query locations. As a secondary proof-of-concept, we explore hybrid classical-quantum architectures and superposed execution to manage ensemble runtime and hardware requirements. Experiments on synthetic operator benchmarks and real-world power-system dynamics show accurate predictions under ideal simulation and empirical coverage near the target under both ideal conditions and selected compact-circuit simulations with depolarizing or device-calibrated composite noise. Together, these results connect resource-aware scalability analysis with finite-sample uncertainty guarantees for quantum operator learning.
Purav Matlia, Christian Moya, Guang Lin
Apr 29, 2026cs.LG

Smart Ensemble Learning Framework for Predicting Groundwater Heavy Metal Pollution

Groundwater in the Densu Basin is increasingly threatened by heavy metal contamination, but conventional methods fail to capture the statistical complexity and spatial heterogeneity of pollution indicators. A key challenge is modelling the Heavy Metal Pollution Index (HPI), which is typically skewed and affected by correlated contaminants, leading to biased predictions without transformation. This study develops a predictive framework integrating response transformations with nested cross-validated ensemble machine learning. Three transformations (raw, log, and Gaussian copula) were applied to HPI and evaluated across six learners: support vector regression (SVM), kk-nearest neighbours (k-NN), CART, Elastic Net, kernel ridge regression, and a stacked Lasso ensemble. Raw-scale models produced deceptively high fits (Elastic Net and stacked ensemble R2≈1.0R^2 \approx 1.0), suggesting over-optimism. The log transformation stabilised variance (SVM: R2=0.93R^2 = 0.93, RMSE =0.18= 0.18; k-NN: R2=0.92R^2 = 0.92, RMSE =0.20= 0.20). The Gaussian copula gave the most reliable results: stacked ensemble R2=0.96R^2 = 0.96 (RMSE =0.19= 0.19), with other learners maintaining high accuracy. Copula-based models improved residuals and produced spatially plausible maps. DBSCAN clustering revealed Fe and Mn as primary HPI contributors, consistent with regional hydrogeochemistry. Limitations include reliance on random (not spatial) cross-validation and basin-specific scope. Future work should explore spatial validation and other geological settings. Overall, distribution-aware ensembles with clustering diagnostics offer robust, interpretable assessments of groundwater contamination.
T. Ansah-Narh, G. Y. Afrifa, J. B. Tandoh +6
Apr 29, 2026cs.LG

Uncertainty-Aware Predictive Safety Filters for Probabilistic Neural Network Dynamics

Predictive safety filters (PSFs) leverage model predictive control to enforce constraint satisfaction during deep reinforcement learning (RL) exploration, yet their reliance on first-principles models or Gaussian processes limits scalability and broader applicability. Meanwhile, model-based RL (MBRL) methods routinely employ probabilistic ensemble (PE) neural networks to capture complex, high-dimensional dynamics from data with minimal prior knowledge. However, existing attempts to integrate PEs into PSFs lack rigorous uncertainty quantification. We introduce the Uncertainty-Aware Predictive Safety Filter (UPSi), a PSF that provides rigorous safety predictions using PE dynamics models by formulating future outcomes as reachable sets. UPSi introduces an explicit certainty constraint that prevents model exploitation and integrates seamlessly into common MBRL frameworks. We evaluate UPSi within Dyna-style MBRL on standard safe RL benchmarks and report substantial improvements in exploration safety over prior neural network PSFs while maintaining performance on par with standard MBRL. UPSi bridges the gap between the scalability and generality of modern MBRL and the safety guarantees of predictive safety filters.
Bernd Frauenknecht, Lukas Kesper, Daniel Mayfrank +2
Apr 28, 2026cs.CV

Robust Deepfake Detection: Mitigating Spatial Attention Drift via Calibrated Complementary Ensembles

Current deepfake detection models achieve state-of-the-art performance on pristine academic datasets but suffer severe spatial attention drift under real-world compound degradations, such as blurring and severe lossy compression. To address this vulnerability, we propose a foundation-driven forensic framework that integrates an extreme compound degradation engine with a structurally constrained, multi-stream architecture. During training, our degradation pipeline systematically destroys high-frequency artifacts, optimizing the DINOv2-Giant backbone to extract invariant geometric and semantic priors. We then process images through three specialized pathways: a Global Texture stream, a Localized Facial stream, and a Hybrid Semantic Fusion stream incorporating CLIP. Through analyzing spatial attribution via Score-CAM and feature stability using Cosine Similarity, we quantitatively demonstrate that these streams extract non-redundant, complementary feature representations and stabilize attention entropy. By aggregating these predictions via a calibrated, discretized voting mechanism, our ensemble successfully suppresses background attention drift while acting as a robust geometric anchor. Our approach yields highly stable zero-shot generalization, achieving Fourth Place in the NTIRE 2026 Robust Deepfake Detection Challenge at CVPR. Code is available at https://github.com/khoalephanminh/ntire26-deepfake-challenge.
Minh-Khoa Le-Phan, Minh-Hoang Le, Trong-Le Do +1
Apr 27, 2026cs.LG

Scalable Hyperparameter-Divergent Ensemble Training with Automatic Learning Rate Exploration for Large Models

Training large neural networks with data-parallel stochastic gradient descent allocates N GPU replicas to compute effectively identical updates -- a practice that leaves the rich space of learning rate configurations entirely unexplored during training. We propose Hyperparameter-Divergent Ensemble Training (HDET), a method that repurposes these replicas for simultaneous learning rate exploration at negligible communication overhead. HDET operates in alternating phases: a fan-out stage in which replicas train independently under a structured, symmetric spread of learning rates, and a converge stage in which parameters are averaged across all replicas via AllReduce every T steps. Building on this ensemble substrate, we further propose an automatic learning rate (auto-LR) controller that treats the relative training loss across replicas as a performance signal, updating the shared base schedule toward higher-performing configurations via a momentum-based gradient-free meta-update. The combined method produces a self-adapting learning rate schedule that improves both optimization quality and generalization without additional hyperparameter sweeps or training budget. Crucially, the framework generalizes beyond learning rate: any scalar hyperparameter that does not alter model architecture -- such as dropout rate, attention scale temperature, or weight-decay coefficient -- can be explored across replicas using the same fan-out/converge protocol, with inter-replica loss differences serving as zero-order hypergradients that guide the search direction. HDET is implemented as a drop-in replacement for PyTorch's OneCycleLR scheduler, requiring no changes to model architecture, optimizer, or data pipeline.
Hailing Cheng, Tao Huang, Chen Zhu +1
Apr 27, 2026cs.AI

Credal Concept Bottleneck Models for Epistemic-Aleatoric Uncertainty Decomposition

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty (irreducible input ambiguity). This makes concept-level uncertainty hard to interpret and, more importantly, hard to act upon. We introduce CREDENCE (Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation), a CBM framework that decomposes concept uncertainty by construction. CREDENCE represents each concept as a credal prediction (a probability interval), derives epistemic uncertainty from disagreement across diverse concept heads, and estimates aleatoric uncertainty via a dedicated ambiguity output trained to match annotator disagreement when available. The resulting signals support prescriptive decisions: automate low-uncertainty cases, prioritize data collection for high-epistemic cases, route high-aleatoric cases to human review, and abstain when both are high. Across several tasks, we show that epistemic uncertainty is positively associated with prediction errors, whereas aleatoric uncertainty closely tracks annotator disagreement, providing guidance beyond error correlation. Our implementation is available at the following link: https://github.com/Tankiit/Credal_Sets/tree/ensemble-credal-cbm
Tanmoy Mukherjee, Thomas Bailleux, Pierre Marquis +1
Apr 27, 2026cs.LG

Meta-Ensemble Learning with Diverse Data Splits for Improved Respiratory Sound Classification

Training reliable respiratory sound classification models remains challenging due to the limited size and subject diversity of datasets. Ensemble methods can improve robustness, but when base models are trained on identical data, models tend to overfit and produce highly correlated predictions, thereby reducing the effectiveness of ensembling. In this work, we investigate a meta-ensemble learning methodology that enhances prediction diversity by training base models on diverse data splits and combining their outputs through a trained meta-model. Specifically, we train base models on the ICBHI dataset using two data split settings: fixed 80-20% split and five-fold cross-validation split, under two data granularity settings: patient- and sample-level. The resulting diversity in base model predictions enables the meta-model to better generalize. Our approach achieves new state-of-the-art performance on the ICBHI benchmark, reaching a Score of 66.49% and showing improved generalization on two out-of-distribution datasets, indicating its potential applicability to real-world clinical data.
June-Woo Kim, Miika Toikkanen, Heejoon Koo +3
Apr 26, 2026cs.NE

MAEO: Multiobjective Animorphic Ensemble Optimization for Scalable Large-scale Engineering Applications

Multiobjective optimization remains challenging for many scientific and engineering problems due to the need to balance convergence, diversity, and computational efficiency across high-dimensional objective landscapes. This work presents the Multiobjective Animorphic Ensemble Optimization (MAEO) framework, a parallelizable ensemble strategy that unifies state-of-the-art evolutionary algorithms within an island-based architecture, overcoming the limitations of relying on a single optimizer, as implied by the No Free Lunch theorem. MAEO uses a parameter-free hypervolume indicator for island performance assessment and a strict Pareto-rank-based individual scoring formulation that incorporates crowding distance and nadir-point proximity to ensure consistent selection pressure within each front. The framework is initiated using four algorithms (NSGA-III, CTAEA, AGEMOEA2, SPEA2) and evaluated through extensive benchmarking on 12 DTLZ/ZDT functions under 36 dimensionality settings using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests with both hypervolume and inverse generational distance metrics. Results show that MAEO achieves balanced convergence-diversity performance, outperforming or matching some of the leading multiobjective optimization algorithms across different benchmark problems. To demonstrate practical applicability, MAEO is applied to the equilibrium-cycle optimization of a small modular nuclear reactor. Eight discrete design variables (and three objectives (levelized cost of electricity, peak soluble boron concentration, fuel cycle length) are optimized under two safety constraints. The algorithm carried out roughly 40000 evaluations using computer simulations. MAEO identifies core designs that lower both the levelized cost of electricity and the peak boron concentration, while preserving fuel cycle length and meeting all safety constraints.
Omer F. Erdem, Dean Price, Paul Seurin +1
Apr 25, 2026cs.CV

A Hierarchical Ensemble Inference Pipeline for Robust White Blood Cell Classification Under Domain Shifts

Automated white blood cell (WBC) classification is essential for scalable leukaemia screening. However, real-world deployment is challenged by domain shifts caused by staining protocols, scanner characteristics, and inter-laboratory variability, which often degrade model performance. The White Blood Cell Classification Challenge (WBCBench) at ISBI 2026 aims to advance robust WBC recognition, with a focus on accurately identifying blast cells and other clinically critical rare subtypes. We propose a memory-augmented, hierarchical ensemble pipeline for WBC classification under domain shifts, leveraging a feature bank and a DinoBloom backbone fine-tuned with LoRA. Our three-stage inference hierarchy combines k-nearest neighbors (kNN) retrieval at each level, reducing over-reliance on any single decision. Evaluated on the WBCBench dataset, our method ranks within the top ten by macro F1-score in the final testing phase.
Ruyi Dai, Tingkwong Ng, Hao Chen
Apr 24, 2026cs.CL

Ensembles of Large Language Models for Identifying EQ-5D Studies in PubMed Based on Their Abstracts

The rapid increase in scientific publications leads to the fact that manual study screening in systematic literature reviews (SLRs) is increasingly resource consuming, inefficient, and inconsistent. Classifying studies that clearly report health-related quality-of-life results, such as EQ-5D data, requires a high level of clinical interpretation and poses challenges for human reviewers. This study investigates the use of Google's Gemini and Gemma large language models (LLMs) in automating EQ-5D detection in the PubMed biomedical database based only on published abstracts. A multi-phase framework is proposed that integrates few-shot prompting, weight ensembling aggregation, and a soft stacking meta-classifier. Nine LLMs are evaluated on a dataset of PubMed studies manually labeled by two experts regarding EQ-5D reporting. The weighted ensemble of gemini-2.5-pro, gemma-3-12b, and gemma-3-27b obtained a 0.74 weighted F1-score and 0.74 accuracy, exceeding individually attained results. The ensembling of top-performing models improved the balance between precision and recall compared to individual models, while the soft stacking approach provided greater reliability and interpretability. Feature analysis shows that the probability results from the models are important in guiding the final predictions. The findings suggest that an ensemble-based LLM setup is a reliable and scalable approach for automating screening in biomedical research.
Zhyar Rzgar K. Rostam, Márta Péntek, János Tibor Czere +3
Apr 24, 2026cs.CL

BERAG: Bayesian Ensemble Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-based Visual Question Answering

A common approach to question answering with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is to concatenate documents into a single context and pass it to a language model to generate an answer. While simple, this strategy can obscure the contribution of individual documents, making attribution difficult and contributing to the lost-in-the-middle'' effect, where relevant information in long contexts is overlooked. Concatenation also scales poorly: computational cost grows quadratically with context length, a problem that becomes especially severe when the context includes visual data, as in visual question answering. Attempts to mitigate these issues by limiting context length can further restrict performance by preventing models from benefiting from the improved recall offered by deeper retrieval. We propose Bayesian Ensemble Retrieval-Augmented Generation (BERAG), along with Bayesian Ensemble Fine-Tuning (BEFT), as a RAG framework in which language models are conditioned on individual retrieved documents rather than a single combined context. BERAG treats document posterior probabilities as ensemble weights and updates them token by token using Bayes' rule during generation. This approach enables probabilistic re-ranking, parallel memory usage, and clear attribution of document contribution, making it well-suited for large document collections. We evaluate BERAG and BEFT primarily on knowledge-based visual question answering tasks, where models must reason over long, imperfect retrieval lists. The results show substantial improvements over standard RAG, including strong gains on Document Visual Question Answering and multimodal needle-in-a-haystack benchmarks. We also demonstrate that BERAG mitigates the lost-in-the-middle'' effect. The document posterior can be used to detect insufficient grounding and trigger deflection, while document pruning enables faster decoding than standard RAG.
Jinghong Chen, Jingbiao Mei, Guangyu Yang +1
Apr 23, 2026cs.LG

Promoting Simple Agents: Ensemble Methods for Event-Log Prediction

We compare lightweight automata-based models (n-grams) with neural architectures (LSTM, Transformer) for next-activity prediction in streaming event logs. Experiments on synthetic patterns and five real-world process mining datasets show that n-grams with appropriate context windows achieve comparable accuracy to neural models while requiring substantially fewer resources. Unlike windowed neural architectures, which show unstable performance patterns, n-grams provide stable and consistent accuracy. While we demonstrate that classical ensemble methods like voting improve n-gram performance, they require running many agents in parallel during inference, increasing memory consumption and latency. We propose an ensemble method, the promotion algorithm, that dynamically selects between two active models during inference, reducing overhead compared to classical voting schemes. On real-world datasets, these ensembles match or exceed the accuracy of non-windowed neural models with lower computational cost.
Benedikt Bollig, Matthias Függer, Thomas Nowak +1
Apr 22, 2026cs.LG

A Hierarchical Ensemble Pipeline for Anomaly Detection in ESA Satellite Telemetry

A hierarchical ensemble pipeline is introduced to address anomaly detection in multivariate telemetry data provided by European Space Agency (ESA). The method integrates shapelet-based and statistical feature extraction, per-channel modeling, intra-channel stacking, and a final cross-channel aggregation. The pipeline is trained and validated using time-series cross-validation and two-level masking strategies to prevent information leakage. Results on the European Space Agency Anomaly Detection Benchmark (ESA-ADB) challenge demonstrate strong generalization, highlighting the effectiveness of hierarchical modeling in detecting subtle anomalies in realistic satellite telemetry.
Lorenzo Riccardo Allegrini, Geremia Pompei
Apr 22, 2026cs.CR

SDNGuardStack: An Explainable Ensemble Learning Framework for High-Accuracy Intrusion Detection in Software-Defined Networks

Software-Defined Networking (SDN) is another technology that has been developing in the last few years as a relevant technique to improve network programmability and administration. Nonetheless, its centralized design presents a major security issue, which requires effective intrusion detection systems. The SDN-specific machine learning-based intrusion detection system described in this paper is innovative because it is trained and tested on the InSDN dataset which models attack scenarios and realistic traffic patterns in SDN. Our approach incorporates a comprehensive preprocessing pipeline, feature selection via Mutual Information, and a novel ensemble learning model, SDNGuardStack, which combines multiple base learners to enhance detection accuracy and efficiency. In addition, we include explainable AI methods, including SHAP to add transparency to model predictions, which helps security analysts respond to incidents. The experiments prove that SDNGuard-Stack has an accuracy rate of 99.98% and a Cohen Kappa of 0.9998, surpassing other models, and at the same time being interpretable and practically executable. It is interesting to see such features like Flow ID, Bwd Header Len, and Src Port as the most important factors in the model predictions. The work is a step towards closing the gap between performance intrusion detection and realistic deployment in SDN, which will lead to the creation of secure and resilient network infrastructures.
Ashikuzzaman, Md. Saifuzzaman Abhi, Mahabubur Rahman +3
Apr 21, 2026cs.LG

Fast Amortized Fitting of Scientific Signals Across Time and Ensembles via Transferable Neural Fields

Neural fields, also known as implicit neural representations (INRs), offer a powerful framework for modeling continuous geometry, but their effectiveness in high-dimensional scientific settings is limited by slow convergence and scaling challenges. In this study, we extend INR models to handle spatiotemporal and multivariate signals and show how INR features can be transferred across scientific signals to enable efficient and scalable representation across time and ensemble runs in an amortized fashion. Across controlled transformation regimes (e.g., geometric transformations and localized perturbations of synthetic fields) and high-fidelity scientific domains-including turbulent flows, fluid-material impact dynamics, and astrophysical systems-we show that transferable features improve not only signal fidelity but also the accuracy of derived geometric and physical quantities, including density gradients and vorticity. In particular, transferable features reduce iterations to reach target reconstruction quality by up to an order of magnitude, increase early-stage reconstruction quality by multiple dB (with gains exceeding 10 dB in some cases), and consistently improve gradient-based physical accuracy.
Sophia Zorek, Kushal Vyas, Yuhao Liu +3
Apr 21, 2026cs.LG

Adaptive MSD-Splitting: Enhancing C4.5 and Random Forests for Skewed Continuous Attributes

The discretization of continuous numerical attributes remains a persistent computational bottleneck in the induction of decision trees, particularly as dataset dimensions scale. Building upon the recently proposed MSD-Splitting technique -- which bins continuous data using the empirical mean and standard deviation to dramatically improve the efficiency and accuracy of the C4.5 algorithm -- we introduce Adaptive MSD-Splitting (AMSD). While standard MSD-Splitting is highly effective for approximately symmetric distributions, its rigid adherence to fixed one-standard-deviation cutoffs can lead to catastrophic information loss in highly skewed data, a common artifact in real-world biomedical and financial datasets. AMSD addresses this by dynamically adjusting the standard deviation multiplier based on feature skewness, narrowing intervals in dense regions to preserve discriminative resolution. Furthermore, we integrate AMSD into ensemble methods, specifically presenting the Random Forest-AMSD (RF-AMSD) framework. Empirical evaluations on the Census Income, Heart Disease, Breast Cancer, and Forest Covertype datasets demonstrate that AMSD yields a 2-4% accuracy improvement over standard MSD-Splitting, while maintaining near-identical O(N) time complexity reductions compared to the O(N log N) exhaustive search. Our Random Forest extension achieves state-of-the-art accuracy at a fraction of standard computational costs, confirming the viability of adaptive statistical binning in large-scale ensemble learning architectures.
Jake Lee
Apr 20, 2026cs.LG

Towards E-Value Based Stopping Rules for Bayesian Deep Ensembles

Bayesian Deep Ensembles (BDEs) represent a powerful approach for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, combining the robustness of Deep Ensembles (DEs) with flexible multi-chain MCMC. While DEs are affordable in most deep learning settings, (long) sampling of Bayesian neural networks can be prohibitively costly. Yet, adding sampling after optimizing the DEs has been shown to yield significant improvements. This leaves a critical practical question: How long should the sequential sampling process continue to yield significant improvements over the initial optimized DE baseline? To tackle this question, we propose a stopping rule based on E-values. We formulate the ensemble construction as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, providing a principled way to decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis that MCMC offers no improvement over a strong baseline, to early stop the sampling. Empirically, we study this approach for diverse settings. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach and reveal that only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required.
Emanuel Sommer, Rickmer Schulte, Sarah Deubner +2
Apr 18, 2026cs.HC

Lightweight Cybersickness Detection based on User-Specific Eye and Head Tracking Data in Virtual Reality

The occurrence of cybersickness in virtual reality (VR) significantly impairs users' perception and sense of immersion. Therefore, timely detection of cybersickness and the application of appropriate intervention strategies are crucial for enhancing the user experience. However, existing cybersickness detection methods often suffer from issues such as poor detection reliability across different levels of cybersickness and unnecessary model complexity. Furthermore, while cybersickness exhibits significant inter-user variability, most existing approaches aggregate all data from users and lack user-specific solutions. In this paper, we investigate a lightweight approach for cybersickness detection incorporating an ensemble learning model and user-specific eye and head tracking data. Our experiments using the open-source dataset Simulation 2021 demonstrate that feature engineering and training set construction are critical for determining detection performance. Models trained with data from similar-content segments achieve the best results, attaining detection accuracies of 93% in the cross-user setting and 88% in the user-personalized setting, using only 23-dimensional eye and head features. Moreover, by using user-specific data, well-tuned ensemble learning models with shorter training and inference times can be feasibly applied to real-world cybersickness detection, offering superior time efficiency and outstanding detection performance. This work offers useful evidence toward the development of lightweight and user-adaptive cybersickness detection models for VR applications.
Yijun Wang, Mihai Bâce, Maria Torres Vega
Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

FL-MHSM: Spatially-adaptive Fusion and Ensemble Learning for Flood-Landslide Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Mapping at Regional Scale

Existing multi-hazard susceptibility mapping (MHSM) studies often rely on spatially uniform models, treat hazards independently, and provide limited representation of cross-hazard dependence and uncertainty. To address these limitations, this study proposes a deep learning (DL) workflow for joint flood-landslide multi-hazard susceptibility mapping (FL-MHSM) that combines two-level spatial partitioning, probabilistic Early Fusion (EF), a tree-based Late Fusion (LF) baseline, and a soft-gating Mixture of Experts (MoE) model, with MoE serving as final predictive model. The proposed design preserves spatial heterogeneity through zonal partitions and enables data-parallel large-area prediction using overlapping lattice grids. In Kerala, EF remained competitive with LF, improving flood recall from 0.816 to 0.840 and reducing Brier score from 0.092 to 0.086, while MoE provided strongest performance for flood susceptibility, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.905, recall of 0.930, and F1-score of 0.722. In Nepal, EF similarly improved flood recall from 0.820 to 0.858 and reduced Brier score from 0.057 to 0.049 relative to LF, while MoE outperformed both EF and LF for landslide susceptibility, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.914, recall of 0.901, and F1-score of 0.559. GeoDetector analysis of MoE outputs further showed that dominant factors varied more across zones in Kerala, where susceptibility was shaped by different combinations of topographic, land-cover, and drainage-related controls, while Nepal showed a more consistent influence of topographic and glacier-related factors across zones. These findings show that EF and LF provide complementary predictive behavior, and that their spatially adaptive integration through MoE yields robust overall predictive performance for FL-MHSM while supporting interpretable characterization of multi-hazard susceptibility in spatially heterogeneous landscapes.
Aswathi Mundayatt, Jaya Sreevalsan-Nair
Apr 16, 2026cs.IR

Collaborative Filtering Through Weighted Similarities of User and Item Embeddings

In recent years, neural networks and other complex models have dominated recommender systems, often setting new benchmarks for state-of-the-art performance. Yet, despite these advancements, award-winning research has demonstrated that traditional matrix factorization methods can remain competitive, offering simplicity and reduced computational overhead. Hybrid models, which combine matrix factorization with newer techniques, are increasingly employed to harness the strengths of multiple approaches. This paper proposes a novel ensemble method that unifies user-item and item-item recommendations through a weighted similarity framework to deliver top-N recommendations. Our approach is distinctive in its use of shared user and item embeddings for both recommendation strategies, simplifying the architecture and enhancing computational efficiency. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets show that our method achieves competitive performance and is robust in varying scenarios that favor either user-item or item-item recommendations. Additionally, by eliminating the need for embedding-specific fine-tuning, our model allows for the seamless reuse of hyperparameters from the base algorithm without sacrificing performance. This results in a method that is both efficient and easy to implement. Our open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/UFSCar-LaSID/weighted-sims-recommender.
Pedro R. Pires, Rafael T. Sereicikas, Gregorio F. Azevedo +1
Feb 27, 2026q-bio.BM

Inference-time optimization for experiment-grounded protein ensemble generation

Protein function relies on dynamic conformational ensembles, yet current generative models like AlphaFold3 often fail to produce ensembles that match experimental data. Recent experiment-guided generators attempt to address this by steering the reverse diffusion process. However, these methods are limited by fixed sampling horizons and sensitivity to initialization, often yielding thermodynamically implausible results. We introduce a general inference-time optimization framework to solve these challenges. First, we optimize over latent representations to maximize ensemble log-likelihood, rather than perturbing structures post hoc. This approach eliminates dependence on diffusion length, removes initialization bias, and easily incorporates external constraints. Second, we present novel sampling schemes for drawing Boltzmann-weighted ensembles. By combining structural priors from AlphaFold3 with force-field-based priors, we sample from their product distribution while balancing experimental likelihoods. Our results show that this framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art guidance, improving diversity, physical energy, and agreement with data in X-ray crystallography and NMR, often fitting the experimental data better than deposited PDB structures. Finally, inference-time optimization experiments maximizing ipTM scores reveal that perturbing AlphaFold3 embeddings can artificially inflate model confidence. This exposes a vulnerability in current design metrics, whose mitigation could offer a pathway to reduce false discovery rates in binder engineering.
Advaith Maddipatla, Anar Rzayev, Marco Pegoraro +5