Early Warning

To address insufficient contextualization, weak generalization, and poor scenario adaptation in tourism meteorological services, we propose SmartWeatherAgent--a unified three-stage architecture integrating intent recognition, hazard prediction, and reasoning-enhanced generation. The system fuses rule-based methods with large language models to parse queries at multiple granularities and employs a LightGBM model enriched with highland-specific features (e.g., wind speed abruptness rate), achieving an F1-Macro score of 0.605 with 1.60 ms latency on high-wind, precipitation, and low-temperature events. A 12-round micro-step prompt self-optimization loop boosts the composite warning quality score S_final from 4.2 (B01) to 8.9 (B12, +112%). Key improvements include a sharp rise in B08 from data source citation (6.5 -> 8.5), sustained high performance in B10 via physical mechanism explanation, and a peak scientific rigor score of 9.2 in B12 through explicit uncertainty statements. The system autonomously generates structured warnings that integrate causal mechanisms, spatiotemporal evolution, quantitative evidence, regulatory references, and confidence statements--enhancing professional depth, logical rigor, and scientific soundness, and advancing meteorological services toward proactive perception, explainable decision-making, and intelligent agency.

False ventricular tachycardia (VT) alarms are a leading contributor to alarm fatigue in intensive care units. We propose a deep learning framework combining a 1D SE-ResNet with ICU-realistic data augmentations and a physics-informed auxiliary reconstruction task based on the three-element Windkessel hemodynamic model, implemented as a differentiable forward simulation. By requiring the network's latent representation to produce physiologically plausible arterial pressure waveforms, artifact-driven ECG patterns are penalized while true VT remains coherent across modalities. Evaluated on the VTaC benchmark under a strict real-time protocol (10-second pre-alarm window), our method achieves a 5-point Challenge Score improvement over prior state-of-the-art. Ablation studies confirm that the physics-informed objective is the primary performance driver, providing gains in accuracy, 2x label efficiency, and more localized and clinically meaningful ECG segments.

Driver alerting from dashcam video requires sequential decision-making under partial observability: a system must decide not only whether a scene is risky, but also when the evidence is sufficient to warn. Most existing accident anticipation models output a binary risk score, leaving ambiguous scenes to be handled by thresholding. We propose VLAlert, a vision-language alerting framework that casts warning generation as a tri-action policy over SILENT, OBSERVE, and ALERT. The OBSERVE action acts as an internal evidence-gathering decision that delays uncertain warnings and changes the next observation window, creating a lightweight perception-action loop for adaptive alerting. VLAlert uses Qwen3-VL-4B as a safety-evidence generator and pools hidden states from structured belief spans to form compact representations for danger estimation and policy prediction. We evaluate VLAlert on VLAlert-Bench, a unified per-tick benchmark from four real-world dashcam alert datasets, and further test transfer to held-out naturalistic ADAS takeover clips. On VLAlert-Bench validation, VLAlert achieves the highest deployment-oriented utility among tested baselines, with DAUS 0.4878 compared with 0.4752 for Open-BADAS, and improves AUROC, AP_tick, F1_t, and balanced accuracy from 0.610, 0.176, 0.276, and 0.581 to 0.689, 0.195, 0.297, and 0.648, respectively. On 221 held-out ADAS-TO-Critic clips, VLAlert improves R@5s from 74.2% to 88.7% and F1 from 0.585 to 0.686. These results indicate that adaptive observation and safety-focused VLM representations provide measurable gains for driver-facing alert decisions.

This paper presents a methodological framework for real-time climate risk assessment using data-driven nowcasting techniques to enhance supply chain resilience in Colombian agricultural contexts. Climate variability in Colombia, characterized by irregular rainfall, temperature fluctuations, and recurrent extreme events, has a direct impact on agricultural production and logistics, particularly for time sensitive crops. The proposed approach integrates short term climate forecasting based on historical meteorological observations with supply chain risk modeling to establish a conceptual early warning system architecture. A prototype implementation developed in a controlled computational environment demonstrates the feasibility of the framework using historical meteorological and agricultural time series derived from official statistics and reanalysis products, without reliance on satellite imagery or computer vision components. The methodology addresses the integration of climate nowcasting with supply chain decision making through explicit risk mapping, threshold-based categorization, and stakeholder-oriented risk signals. Results from synthetic and historical data experiments indicate that short term precipitation nowcasts can be translated into actionable risk indicators for agricultural supply chains, supporting anticipatory decisions related to inventory, sourcing, and transport.

Explicit onshore tsunami inundation forecasting can improve public risk awareness, but deterministically predicted inundation boundaries under highly uncertain conditions, such as near-field tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes, may falsely imply safety outside the boundaries. Consequently, current warnings primarily target coastal tsunami height, not onshore inundation. Although machine learning enables instant inundation predictions, they remain deterministic, lacking uncertainty quantification. Here, we develop a probabilistic ensemble model based on a conditional diffusion model (a type of generative AI) that reconciles accuracy with calibration. Validated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake data, our model faithfully tracks the postearthquake uncertainty decreasing over time while accurately predicting inundation depth and extent. Our framework shows that generative AI can shift tsunami forecasting from determinism to probabilism, providing a foundation for next-generation early warning.

We investigate an unobtrusive and $24\times7$ human distress detection and signaling system, Always Alert, that requires the smartphone, and not its human owner, to be on alert. The system leverages the microphone sensor, at least one of which is available on every phone, and assumes the availability of a data network. We propose a novel two-stage supervised learning framework, using support vector machines (SVMs), that executes on a user's smartphone and monitors natural vocal expressions of fear---screaming and crying in our study---when a human being is in harm's way. The challenge is to achieve a high distress detection rate while ensuring that the false alarm rate is a manageable overhead, while a typical smartphone user goes about living life as usual. We train the learning framework with carefully selected audio fingerprints of distress and of varied environmental contexts. The audio is used to tune the learning framework to obtain a desirable distress detection rate and false alarm rate (FAR). The ability of the proposed framework to detect distress in rather challenging audio environments is demonstrated. Exploiting the time contiguous nature of false alarms further allows us to reduce the FAR. We show the feasibility of using our framework anytime and anywhere by testing it over many hours of audio fingerprints recorded by volunteers on their smartphones, as they went about their daily routines. We are able to achieve high distress detection rates at an average overhead that is equivalent to about 1 facebook post every 3 to 4 hours.

Long-horizon steel-equipment inspection requires reasoning over heterogeneous records accumulated across repeated inspection cycles. Existing retrieval-augmented generation systems treat historical logs as a static corpus and retain records without estimating their diagnostic value, failing to report early risk. To this end, we propose ConMem, a contribution-aware memory framework for LLM-assisted equipment inspection, supporting a human-in-the-loop early-risk screening system. Specifically, our ConMem first segments inspection logs into functional evidence units, then estimates each memory unit's contribution to downstream diagnosis through a Shapley-style estimation, and finally retains high-value evidence under a constrained memory budget. In experiments, we evaluate ConMem on real-world dataset and ConMem achieves 76.0% QA accuracy, exceeding the strongest directly comparable baseline. Relative to the naive 8K-context LLM baselines, it reduces the average number of input tokens by 88.2% and response time by 86.6%. Ablation studies also show that the functional-role-aware segmentation and contribution-based valuation are helping prioritize weak degradation signals for targeted field inspection. Practical deployments further confirm that ConMem retains the weak early signal across three inspection cycles, providing an early-stage seal-wear alert targeted for on-site inspectors.

Modern telecommunication, cloud, and microservice systems emit correlated alarm cascades when components fail. Root cause analysis (RCA) aims to identify the small set of alarms that initiate each cascade. A common approach learns a causal graph from observational logs and predicts all zero-in-degree alarms in each incident-induced subgraph. However, the learned graph remains fixed and cannot benefit from expert diagnoses of historical incidents. We close this loop with EvoCause. Expert labels constrain which alarms should be source nodes but do not specify the edge edits needed to satisfy those constraints. EvoCause uses a large language model (LLM) to propose semantically plausible graph edits, while deterministic code validates node identities and acyclicity and retains the best graph on a labeled alignment set. At test time, the refined graph alone produces transparent predictions without an LLM call. We also release TeleRCA, an expert-annotated benchmark from a production telecommunication network containing $485{,}681$ alarm events spanning $194$ alarm types over $5{,}621$ resources. On synthetic data, EvoCause initialized with the PC causal discovery algorithm outperforms the unrefined PC baseline, raising Node F1, Case EM, and Graph F1 by $11.59$, $9.40$, and $4.59$ percentage points, respectively, while reducing nSHD by $0.2379$. On TeleRCA, replacing human-readable alarm titles with anonymous identifiers lowers Node F1 and Case EM by $6.12$ and $8.04$ percentage points, respectively, indicating that alarm-name information contributes to graph refinement.

We develop a novel forecasting scheme to anticipate controller induced loss of control (LOC) in quadrotors and evaluate it on real LOC flight data from four different quadrotors. For this, early warning signals of LOC are derived using critical slowing down (CSD), a generic phenomenon shown to precede critical transitions across various complex ecological and biological systems. As such, our early warning indicators are generic in the sense that no system models are needed to facilitate forecasts of LOC. The approach is evaluated on real quadrotor flight data wherein LOC occurs due to unstable controller behavior arising from input-output delays. Our approach achieves a time-to-LOC forecast of up to 0.9 seconds before LOC occurs, outperforming state-of-the-art recurrent neural network quadrotor LOC forecasters in terms of detection accuracy and LOC data reliance. In particular, we leverage insights from CSD to accurately predict LOC without using data of the LOC event itself. Going further, we apply our forecasters without any re-parameterization to anticipate a different LOC scenario, quadrotor flyways, that occur on other quadrotors flying both indoors and outdoors. Despite these differences, our approach successfully detects LOC, demonstrating that it can generalize across controller architectures, quadrotors, and LOC scenarios.

Thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries poses a major safety risk to electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Current early-warning methods depend mainly on temperature and may therefore miss mechanical precursors that emerge before rapid heating. We introduce a regime-aware, physics-guided framework that integrates temperature, voltage, force, deformation, and state-of-charge measurements for early warning under controlled mechanical abuse. A lightweight convolutional classifier first infers safe, warning, or danger regimes from mechanical signals. These regime estimates then condition a causal temporal convolutional backbone through feature-wise linear modulation, physics-biased attention, and regime-dependent gating. Joint learning unifies regime identification, thermal-runaway detection, and time-to-disaster estimation. We evaluate the framework using leave-one-experiment-out cross-validation on 30 mechanical-abuse tests across state-of-charge levels of 10%, 50%, and 90% and two loading protocols. The method achieves an F1 score of 0.89, a high-temperature prediction root-mean-square error of 12.3 °C, a mean warning lead time of 15.6 s, a detection success rate of 0.92, and an experiment-level false alarm rate of 2.7%. Its lead time exceeds that of the strongest baseline by 69.6%. Removing force reduces the lead time by 60.3%, highlighting the value of mechanical precursors. These results support regime-aware thermo-mechanical fusion as a promising strategy for earlier and more reliable thermal-runaway warning under controlled abuse conditions.

Frontier large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into scientific workflows, yet their growing biological capabilities may outpace current safeguards. To assess the biological risks of frontier models, we develop Intern-BioBreaker, a specialized bio-red-teaming model, together with an integrated computational-to-physical framework that couples model-level stress testing with wet-lab validation. Within this framework, Intern-BioBreaker generates targeted jailbreak prompts to test whether aligned models can be induced to provide operational guidance for safety-sensitive biological tasks or produce sequence-level outputs with potentially harmful properties. Selected sequence outputs are then carried forward for DNA synthesis, host expression, and orthogonal protein verification to assess whether model-generated designs can yield the intended biological products. Our evaluation reveals a concerning gap between text-level safeguards and the risks posed by capable scientific models: (i) Intern-BioBreaker outperforms baseline attack models and reveals widespread bio-risk jailbreak vulnerabilities across both open-weight and proprietary frontier LLMs, with several targets reaching near-saturated or 100% task-level attack success rate (ASR); (ii) in sequence-level case studies, GPT-5.5 can be induced to generate modified viral candidate sequences with pathogenic potential; the corresponding translated proteins may exhibit even stronger receptor-binding affinity and thus enhanced infection potential; and (iii) end-to-end verification shows that selected model-generated biological designs are not merely textual artifacts, but can be physically realized under controlled experimental settings. These findings underscore the need for stronger biological red-teaming, nucleic acid synthesis screening, and safety mechanisms that keep pace with model capabilities.

Drift detection is a core component of production machine learning monitoring systems, where detectors are used to compare incoming data with a reference distribution and trigger alerts when changes occur. However, these detectors are often evaluated in research settings that emphasize detection accuracy under synthetic shifts, while overlooking false alarms under continuous monitoring. In production environments, models are monitored repeatedly over time and across many features, and even small false positive rates can accumulate into frequent alerts, leading to alarm fatigue. We empirically analyze false positive behavior across five commonly used drift detectors: PSI, KS, MMD, LSDD, and adversarial validation. Consistent with existing literature, PSI exhibits strong sensitivity to batch size, producing frequent false alarms at small sample sizes; however, we further observe that its behavior stabilizes and improves substantially once batch sizes exceed approximately 200 samples. In contrast, KS, MMD, and LSDD display persistent fluctuations across batch sizes, while remaining comparatively more reliable than PSI in low-data regimes. Applying a Bonferroni correction reduces false positive rates, but often at the cost of reduced true positive sensitivity, reinforcing the well-known stability - sensitivity trade-off in drift detection. This work provides a systematic comparison of false positive behavior across multiple drift detectors under continuous monitoring conditions. We identify tradeoffs across detector families and provide practical guidelines for selecting and calibrating drift detectors in production ML systems.

Jailbreak-robustness research typically evaluates safety through generated responses using an LLM-as-judge approach. Such evaluations, however, are sensitive to the benchmark's grading procedure and capture only observed behavior on a given set of attacks, without directly revealing the hidden fragility of the underlying safety mechanisms. This work proposes JADR (Jacobian Assessment of Danger Recognition), a protocol that measures a model's internal representation through Jacobian space (J-space, a recently proposed workspace of verbalizable concepts) before the first response token is generated. For every prompt and layer we record the top-k J-space tokens; these are grouped into six behavioral scenario axes and compared between a danger sample based on StrongREJECT and a safe control drawn from XSTest and OKTest. The method does not call on an external judge model: the computation runs entirely locally, on the activations of the model under evaluation, which lets us compare both different models against each other and modifications of a single model -- quantization and fine-tuning in particular -- on the same terms. The final comparison rests on the proposed SafetyAUC metric, complemented with bootstrap confidence intervals. The protocol is applied to six models (Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B, Qwen3-Uncensored-4B, Qwen3-SafeRL-4B, Gemma 2 9B) across three weight-representation regimes -- BF16, INT8, and INT4 -- and checked against an independent behavioral evaluation with the StrongREJECT grader. The metric separates models with a strong versus a weak internal safety mechanism with statistical significance and captures substantively different effects across quantization regimes.

Rapid growth in social media has transformed global communication by enabling fast information exchange, but it has also accelerated the spread of misinformation. Fake news, manipulated content, and provocative narratives are increasingly linked to social unrest, political instability, and mob violence. Incidents in South Asia and elsewhere demonstrate how false information disseminated via platforms such as Facebook and WhatsApp can trigger real-world harm, often spreading faster than fact-checking efforts can respond. To address this challenge, this chapter presents a multilingual, multimodal Natural Language Processing (NLP) framework for early detection of misinformation and violence-prone dynamics. A fused dataset of 138,256 Bangla and English samples was created by combining multiple benchmark datasets. The framework integrates XLM-RoBERTa for multilingual text representation, CLIP for visual embedding, and a multi-head attention mechanism for multimodal fusion, enhanced with auxiliary features such as sarcasm and geospatial metadata. Experiments on a stratified 30% subset achieved 98% test accuracy with strong precision and recall. The outcomes show the efficacy of multimodal approaches in early misinformation detection and highlight the added value of geospatial signals for anticipating real-world escalation.

Despite alignment training, LLMs remain prone to generating unsafe outputs at deployment time. Monitoring outputs online and raising an alarm when safety can no longer be assumed is therefore critical. We study a simple real-time monitor that turns a verifier signal from an external model into an alarm decision by thresholding, with the threshold calibrated via risk control. In experiments on mathematical reasoning and red teaming datasets, we show that this simple design is competitive with more advanced monitors based on sequential hypothesis testing.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series remains a critical challenge in large-scale distributed systems, where related entities may exhibit transferable precursor behavior prior to anomaly onset. Existing methods typically operate independently on each data stream and therefore remain fundamentally reactive. To address this limitation, we introduce Distributed Hierarchical Temporal Memory (D-HTM), a neuromorphic framework that enables cross-entity preemptive warning through a Shared Associative Memory (SAM). D-HTM combines a Spatial Pooler (SP) that projects observations into a common Sparse Distributed Representation (SDR) space, Temporal Memory (TM) modules that learn entity-specific dynamics online, and a Shared Associative Memory that stores recurring pre-anomaly signatures. By reusing precursor knowledge across related entities, D-HTM can issue warnings prior to local anomaly onset while preserving HTM's online learning capabilities. We evaluate D-HTM on the Server Machine Dataset (SMD), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) dataset, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) dataset, and a synthetic cascade benchmark designed to isolate precursor transfer. Experimental results demonstrate effective cross-entity warning propagation while maintaining competitive reactive anomaly detection performance. Across the real-world datasets, D-HTM provides an average warning lead time of 8.1 samples prior to anomaly onset. These findings demonstrate that transferable precursor structure can emerge within a shared SDR space and be reused for preemptive warning generation, extending HTM beyond isolated reactive detection toward distributed predictive reasoning.

Vision Language Action models combine perception, language grounding, and control in a single policy, but their failures are hard to diagnose once visual conditions shift. We test whether OpenVLA feedforward activations contain linearly decodable information about near term task failure in LIBERO manipulation rollouts. The policy is fixed throughout. We log internal activations during execution and fit lightweight monitors after the rollouts are collected. Occlusion is the main controlled stress test. It reduces OpenVLA success from $57\%$ to $17\%$ over $100$ episodes per condition. Under this shift, a logistic probe at layer 16 reaches AUROC $0.972$ and AUPRC $0.352$ for predicting failure within a $15$ step horizon. It outperforms both a mean difference direction and an action disagreement baseline. A sparse layer sweep finds uneven decodability across depth: layer 16 is strongest among the tested layers, layer 8 remains informative, and layer 10 is weaker. To check whether the monitor is just an occlusion detector, we also evaluate color shift and camera jitter without refitting. Color shift produces no failures in this setting, so it is a benign control rather than a failure benchmark. Camera jitter does induce failures, and the occlusion trained monitor remains above random. The result is deliberately limited: OpenVLA internal states contain failure relevant structure under controlled perceptual shift, but these experiments do not establish a causal mechanism, task held out generalization, or a deployable recovery system.

Frontier large language model training consumes massive accelerator fleets and long wall-clock computation, making stability failures costly when they occur. After a numerical or a hyperparameter fault has already destabilized the training dynamics, it may continue for thousands of steps while loss and gradient norms still appear normal. We study mechanism-driven detection of training instability by deriving internal monitors from the functional role of each critical module and from the earliest computational sites where failures are expected to produce measurable signatures. For low-precision flash attention, we monitor the spectral entropy of a QK bilinear decomposition, whose first-order term becomes abnormal before the loss fully collapses. For MoE routers, we derive indicators from their role in expert selection. Our fault-injection experiments on low-precision attention, large learning-rate, and combined faults show that these signals provide distinct signatures for different failures, triggering thousands of steps before loss divergence.

Operational event-detection systems are rarely assessed by pointwise accuracy alone. In anomaly detection, changepoint detection, and warning systems, the utility of an alarm depends on its temporal position relative to an event. This produces a score-loss mismatch. Neural networks are commonly trained with classical loss functions, such as cross-entropy, whereas deployment decisions are obtained by thresholding network predictions, merging alarms through post-processing rules, and evaluating them with event-based metrics defined by detection windows and false-alarm costs. This paper studies a temporally localized specialization of weighted score-oriented loss (wSOL) for event prediction. Starting from score-oriented losses based on expected confusion matrices and from the weighted SOL framework of Marchetti et al., we consider temporal weights that discount near-event false positives and reduce false-negative penalties when an event is preceded by an admissible alarm. The resulting objective is differentiable with respect to the network predictions, and therefore can be optimized by back-propagation. It can be instantiated with balanced accuracy, true skill statistic, F1, critical success index, and related confusion-matrix scores. We evaluate the proposed approach by comparing cross-entropy, unweighted score-oriented loss, and wSOL on three benchmark datasets for time-series event prediction and detection. The results show that wSOL can improve performance when the evaluation utility is localized in time and is not already encoded by the pointwise labels.

Road traffic accidents remain a critical global crisis, consistently serving as a primary driver of preventable mortality and severe injury. These incidents are frequently precipitated by human error, including overspeeding, driving under the influence of alcohol, and cognitive fatigue. To address this urgent public safety challenge, this paper presents an intelligent, Internet of Things (IoT)-based Accident Prevention and Detection System (APDS) designed to systematically mitigate driver risk and optimize post-collision emergency responses. The proposed framework features a multi-tiered architecture capable of executing continuous real-time telemetry monitoring, proactive local alarm triggering, and automated situational intervention. Furthermore, the system integrates automated emergency communication protocols that aggregate immediate spatial coordinates via GPS and dispatch targeted alerts to medical facilities in close proximity, thereby optimizing response times and reducing accident-related fatalities.

The rapid growth of large-scale AI workloads, particularly Large Language Model (LLM) training and inference, is fundamentally reshaping the operational dynamics of hyperscale data centers. Unlike traditional cloud workloads, AI-driven jobs exhibit bursty, high-intensity, and rapidly shifting resource demands, often leading to sudden capacity stress that cannot be effectively handled by reactive threshold-based mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a deployment-oriented, burst-aware early warning framework for proactive capacity stress prediction under AI workload surges. We formulate the problem as a high-recall forecasting task over multivariate telemetry windows, with the explicit goal of enabling operational intervention before system degradation occurs. The proposed framework integrates workload intensity, temporal variation, and system pressure signals, and employs a lightweight tree-based learning model to capture nonlinear interactions in highly imbalanced environments. To evaluate the system under realistic conditions, we introduce an AI workload surge injection methodology that simulates burst-driven demand patterns observed in large-scale AI systems. Our XGBoost-based model achieves an ROC AUC of 0.697 and an AP of 0.670, significantly outperforming baseline methods. Under deployment-oriented threshold selection, the framework achieves a Recall of 0.914, enabling the detection of the majority of stress-prone periods with acceptable false-alarm cost. Beyond predictive performance, we show how the proposed framework can be integrated into operational control loops to support proactive actions such as workload throttling and resource scaling. Our results highlight the practical value of high-recall, learning-based early warning systems in enabling resilient and adaptive data center operations in the era of AI-driven workloads.

Software practitioners increasingly use AI coding agents that generate test code alongside production code in open source pull requests (PRs). Recent studies report more than 932,000 agent-authored PRs across more than 116,000 repositories, yet whether their test files contain meaningful verification logic remains underexplored. Test files lacking explicit assertions execute code without verifying behavior, so quality gates based on test-file presence overestimate verification strength. The goal of this paper is to help practitioners assess the verification strength of agent-authored patches by characterizing oracle signals and their link to merge outcomes and review effort. We conduct an empirical study of 86,156 test-file patches from 33,596 agent-authored PRs across 2,807 GitHub repositories produced by five coding agents: OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Devin, Cursor, and Claude Code. A qualitative analysis of 384 stratified patches informs a syntactic taxonomy of eight oracle signal categories. Applied at scale, 80.2% of test patches contain weak or no explicit oracle signals. While raw merge rates are lower for strong-oracle PRs, a regression analysis adjusting for agent, PR size, repository popularity, task type, and language shows strong oracles significantly improve merge likelihood (OR = 1.28, p < 0.001). Our findings suggest that test file counts substantially overestimate verification strength and that practitioners can adopt oracle-aware quality checks to more accurately evaluate agent-authored contributions.

Geographic tipping points in ecosystems, climate subsystems, or ice sheets pose severe challenges for localized early warning. Classical spatial indicators such as Moran's I summarize global spatial structure, but they struggle with three issues: spatial dilution, Euclidean assumptions, and correlated noise. This paper introduces SpatioTemporal Causal Network Diagnostics (ST-CND), a framework that addresses these three issues by representing the geographic field as a time-evolving directed causal network. The core workflow is as follows: (1) infer which spatial nodes help predict other nodes via transfer entropy, replacing fixed Euclidean neighborhoods with data-driven information-flow topology; (2) estimate local recovery rates within each candidate subnetwork via dynamic mode decomposition; and (3) identify the most vulnerable subnetwork by combining three signals, namely high internal fluctuation, high internal synchronization, and low external coupling, thereby suppressing false alarms from spatially correlated noise. Validated on synthetic bifurcations and two observational sea-surface temperature benchmarks, namely Indo-Pacific SST and North Atlantic AMOC, ST-CND delivers localized and interpretable warnings. On the AMOC task, it achieves an AUROC of 0.783 and a critical-subnetwork IoU of 0.378, outperforming recurrence-network and lambda-AR1 baselines. The framework provides an interpretable and scalable pipeline for spatial early warning in Earth system science.

Runtime monitors for autonomous agents commonly threshold an accumulated internal state - a behavioural baseline, a drift statistic, or, in our prior work, a modelled affective state. We previously reported a State Saturation Trap: threshold-on-state triggers over a continuous affect engine become near-constant alarms on SWE-bench debugging agents (Modgil 2026). A post-release audit found the engine received dt=0 between actions, so its exponential decay never operated: the published trap is a pure-accumulator result. We correct the record (erratum, v2) and treat the flaw as an experiment. The key variable it exposes is whether a monitor's dynamics are calibrated in sample time (per observation, as in CUSUM) or wall-clock time (half-lives in seconds, as in affect models and EMA baselines). On fixed-rate streams these coincide; on agent streams, where inter-action time varies by orders of magnitude, they do not. A pre-registered sweep over uniform intervals (dt in {0..600}s) on 20 trajectories shows the wall-clock level trigger has two regimes: at dt<=1s a constant alarm (20/20; median 18 firings); at dt>=60s silent. Every critical dt lies in (1,30]s. Real agent runs measure latency at median 1.53s (p90 2.33s); real coding cadence sits inside the trap regime, vindicating the empirical finding under a corrected mechanism. The structure is a property of the calibration class, not the engine: a minimal wall-clock accumulator over the raw error stream reproduces the same cliff, while a sample-time CUSUM over the identical stream is exactly dt-invariant (20/20). A rising-edge trigger with hysteresis fires 0-3 times per trajectory in every condition. We conclude that wall-clock-calibrated leaky-integrator monitors admit no regime in which they act as moment detectors on agent streams; transition detection escapes the trap at every cadence, but does not recover human intervention timing.

Proactive warning is an important capability for edge intelligent services, where the system predicts whether a subject will successfully complete an incoming task under strict latency and privacy constraints. Such prediction depends on both long-term static attributes and short-term dynamic states derived from historical interaction logs. Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) offer strong long-context reasoning for constructing structured profiles from these logs, but existing solutions face two challenges for edge deployment: (1) profiling methods are typically domain-specific and lack a reusable abstraction across service scenarios, and (2) fine-tuning alignment models on heterogeneous edge clusters incurs high synchronization overhead due to the variance in input sequence lengths. To address these challenges, we propose CogGuard, a proactive-warning framework for edge intelligent services. CogGuard decouples offline LLM-based profile construction from online Small Language Model (SLM)-based score prediction through a shared static-dynamic profile-to-score pipeline, and instantiates it in two representative scenarios: educational performance warning and operational task outcome warning. For efficient profile construction, we design scenario-specific profiling methods with prefix-aligned KV-cache reuse to reduce repeated encoding overhead. For edge-side model alignment, we propose a length-aware distributed fine-tuning strategy with contrastive regularization to mitigate workload imbalance on heterogeneous clusters. Experiments on education and operation datasets show that CogGuard reduces profile construction time by up to 48% and distributed fine-tuning time by 19%, while achieving MAEs of 13.4 and 5.9, respectively, on 100-point-scale warning tasks. In the largest educational setting, CogGuard reduces prediction error by 15.4% compared with the strongest baseline.

Do research topics in artificial intelligence grow gradually, or do they advance through abrupt, detectable jumps? Analyzing 80,814 accepted main-track papers from five premier AI conferences (ACL, CVPR, ICLR, ICML, NeurIPS) spanning 2017 to 2025, we show major AI topics advance through topical phase transitions: remaining marginal for years, then surging across venues within one to three years. Large language models became the dominant cross-venue topic by 2025, diffusion models rose with comparable abruptness, and language-model methods crossed into computer vision via vision-language models, whereas reinforcement learning compounded smoothly, distinguishing genuine phase transitions from ordinary growth. This structure is our primary contribution: a large-scale, cross-venue characterization of how AI research reorganizes. We then ask whether a transition leaves a detectable footprint before it peaks. We define an early-warning signature, four publication-dynamics criteria frozen on 2017-2021 data, and evaluate it out of sample on 2023-2025 transitions, obtaining a precision of 27% and recall of 63% against a 13.5% base rate. Applied to 2025 data, the signature flags reasoning and test-time compute, agentic AI, multimodal LLMs, retrieval-augmented generation, and world models as topics to monitor over 2026-2028. The source code is also publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/ai-phase-transitions.

Clinical early warning systems built on electronic health records, in which clinical observations are recorded as irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS), must deliver both calibrated risk scores for patient triage and interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify. Large Language Models (LLMs) have been explored for this task, yet they collapse graded clinical risk into overconfident binary predictions. This risk polarization undermines both calibration and cross-patient comparability. To address this, we propose TRIAGE, a framework that trains an LLM to generate dialectical reasoning over competing clinical outcomes by eliciting outcome-specific rationales. This dialectical formulation mitigates risk polarization, enabling a single LLM to yield continuous risk scores grounded in explicit clinical reasoning. Evaluated on three ISMTS benchmarks, TRIAGE achieves an average AUPRC improvement of 3.3% and reduces calibration error by 81% compared to the competitive baselines. An LLM-as-a-judge assessment further shows that our rationales surpass post-hoc explanations from the baseline by 20% in clinical reasoning quality. The source code is available at https://github.com/HyeongWon-Jang/TRIAGE .

Long-horizon robot manipulation tends to fail gradually: one bad step degrades the state, and the policy spirals into a basin from which it cannot recover. The failure is often visible before it happens. We introduce AEGIS (Activation-probe Early-warning, Gated Inference Switching), a selective escalation method that uses a lightweight probe on a weak policy's frozen activations to detect high-risk steps while there is still time to act. When the probe flags a step, control switches to a stronger separate policy, but only for the steps that need it. On LIBERO-Spatial, AEGIS recovers 10.1% of the trajectories the weak policy alone loses, versus 4.6% for budget-matched blind escalation and 5.1% for a random-trigger placebo. These gains are significant under one-sided exact paired McNemar tests with Holm-Bonferroni adjustment over three pre-registered contrasts: +5.4pp over blind escalation, p=8.5e-6; +5.0pp over random triggering, p=1.0e-4; paired-trajectory bootstrap CIs exclude zero. AEGIS activates the stronger policy on only 38% of steps, so the lever is timing rather than compute. The probe clears its precondition with an early-window AUROC of 0.764, 95% CI [0.70, 0.84], read from the weak-policy path over the first 30% of trajectory steps before any handoff. We pre-register the full analysis plan, including a conditional recovered-task-rate estimand and explicit kill criteria, and confirm the result on 700 common-random-number episodes per arm, with nA-fail=646.

Early failure alerting requires deciding, while a dialog or agent trajectory is still unfolding, whether to flag it as likely to fail. This is challenging because supervision is typically available only as a trajectory-level success/failure label while alerts must be raised from partial interactions. Prior early-classification methods often bridge this gap by assigning the terminal label to every prefix, treating every turn as failure evidence. We hypothesize that this prefix-label assumption is poorly matched to multi-turn language interactions, where evidence of eventual failure is sparse and often delayed. In this paper, we introduce a two-stage approach that learns from this sparse evidence structure and uses the resulting risk estimates for controllable early alerting. Specifically, our attention-based failure predictor learns sparse turn-level failure evidence from trajectory labels and uses it to estimate failure risk from partial histories. We then pair this predictor with $α$-STOP, a single preference-conditioned stopping policy that selects an accuracy-earliness operating point at inference time rather than training a separate trigger for each preference. Across five benchmarks spanning customer support, task-oriented dialog, persuasion, tool use, and planning, we first show that high-relevance failure evidence occupies only 4.7-11.3% of turns and first appears after 59.0-83.6% of trajectories on average. We further show that the attention-based predictor improves Pareto-frontier quality (hypervolume) by 1-10% over naive prefix supervision, and that the full system improves frontier quality by 3-42% over state-of-the-art trigger policies while reducing training cost per operating point by 1-3 orders of magnitude.

Textual event records, such as alarm logs, have become an increasingly common data source in engineering and manufacturing systems. Beyond identifying correlations or recurring patterns, engineers are often interested in understanding which types of events causally trigger or influence other events during system operation. Textual event descriptions may contain semantic clues about such causal relationships, and recent large language models (LLMs) provide a promising tool for extracting these signals. However, relying solely on LLM-encoded textual information is insufficient for accurate causal discovery, since semantic patterns do not directly reveal causal mechanisms and may confuse causation with correlation or frequent sequential patterns. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{LMT}, a Bayesian causal discovery framework for engineering event data that jointly leverages textual descriptions and timestamps. Specifically, LMT first uses LLMs to extract semantic causal signals from event descriptions and constructs a prior distribution over causal graphs among event types or event clusters. It then incorporates temporal evidence through a Poisson-process-based likelihood, allowing the LLM-informed prior to be refined by timestamp-based statistical evidence. By integrating the textual and temporal information, LMT produces a causal graph that is both interpretable and data-supported. Simulation studies show that the proposed framework is effective across different settings and is especially advantageous in small-sample alarm-event scenarios.

Early detection of at-risk students and timely academic intervention pose major challenges in advanced mathematics education, where complex conceptual hierarchies and nonlinear learning trajectories often hold back students' academic performance. This study adopts multimodal data analytics to build a dynamic framework for learning behavior prediction and academic early warning. It constructs a hierarchical knowledge graph ontology, realizes adaptive edge weighting according to problem difficulty and student performance, and combines heterogeneous graph attention with temporal sequence modeling to capture students' evolving knowledge states. Empirical tests on semester-long multimodal datasets prove that this method can accurately identify high-risk students and effectively track error propagation. Targeted interventions greatly improve students' knowledge mastery and reduce academic risks. The results verify that integrating knowledge graph analytics with multimodal temporal modeling can deliver more efficient and personalized learning support for advanced mathematics education.

The proliferation of adversarial synthetic content, accelerated by Generative AI (GenAI) is rendering traditional reactive detection methods ineffective. This survey synthesizes emerging research to demonstrate a paradigm shift toward the proactive detection of emerging inauthentic narratives. In this survey, we adopt a unified, lifecycle-based taxonomy to combine socio-technical lifecycle models of adversarial campaigns with advanced computational methodologies for emerging inauthentic narrative detection. By structuring the analysis around the C5 Interaction Model (Context, Causes, Content, Cycle of Amplification, Consequences), we integrate different research streams from machine learning and social science. To differentiate spread patterns of synthetic amplification from authentic baseline traffic, this paper surveys state-of-the-art techniques for modeling the creation, seeding, and propagation of fresh narratives, including the analysis of Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior (CIB), epidemiological modeling, and Hawkes process. This survey also provides a systematic review of proactive detection methods for adversarial threats at different stages in the C5 interaction model, specifically, anomaly detection in high-dimensional embedding spaces, unsupervised coordination detection on multi-layer graphs, and agentic AI systems. Finally, this survey addresses challenges posed by GenAI, including the difficulty of tracking rapidly changing threats and multi-level distributional drift, and it outlines a future research agenda focused on detecting anomalous clusters and building anticipatory and resilient systems. This survey provides a comprehensive, lifecycle-based review of methods for the proactive detection of emerging synthetic threats for more resilient information ecosystems.

Visual monitoring systems that rely on cloud-based AI inference expose raw image data to external services, creating fundamental tensions with the data-minimisation principle of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). This paper presents a proof-of-concept privacy-by-design pipeline that resolves this tension by confining all inference entirely to the edge device. A YOLOv5n-seg model compiled for a Hailo-8L AI accelerator delivers real-time object detection on a Raspberry Pi 5, from which raw pixel buffers are immediately discarded after inference. A stateful trigger engine forwards minimal JSON event payloads to a locally hosted instance of Phi-3 Mini (3.8B parameters, Q4_0 quantisation), which synthesises one-to-two sentence natural-language alerts for a human operator. No image data crosses the network boundary at any point; only the generated text alert is transmitted. We describe the full system architecture and implementation, report measured inference latency and resource utilisation on the target hardware, and present representative generated alerts. The results demonstrate that combining a dedicated neural-network accelerator with an on-device large language model on a single-board computer is not only feasible but produces practically deployable, human-readable monitoring output while aligning with GDPR Art. 5(1)(c) by design.

Alarm fatigue in intensive care units (ICUs) is a well documented patient safety crisis. Clinical monitors generate 350 or more alarms per patient per day, out of which 72-99% are clinically irrelevant. Staff desensitization to non-actionable alarms increases the risk of missed true emergencies. This paper presents SigmaMedStat, a machine learning system that evaluates the trustworthiness of physiological alarm signals before clinical action is taken. Four approaches were evaluated on the PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2015 dataset of 498 four-channel ICU alarm recordings. Primary contribution is a temporal modeling framework that splits each 60 second recording into six consecutive 10-second chunks, and this in turn generates Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) scalograms per chunk, encodes each chunk with a shared EfficientNet-B0 encoder, and passes the resulting feature sequence to a two-layer Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Five-fold stratified cross-validation yields a mean AUC of 0.822 +/- 0.016 (95% CI: [0.790,0.853]), compared to 0.641 for a static EfficientNet baseline trained on the full 60-second window. Ablation studies confirm that temporal chunking and multi-channel signal fusion both contribute independently to classification performance. Per-alarm type analysis reveals that Ventricular Flutter is the most accurately classified alarm type (AUC 0.820) while Asystole remains the hardest (AUC 0.722). Error analysis identifies 65 false negatives and 85 high-confidence misclassifications as the primary failure modes. All code and results are publicly available at https://github.com/Arun-K-Ram/sigmamedstat.

Modern intrusion detection systems generate thousands of alerts daily, but alert fatigue severely limits security operations effectiveness due to too many false positives or low-impact events. We address this by proposing a principled framework for alert prioritization based on subnormal Gaussian fuzzy numbers, explicitly modeling three sources of uncertainty: threat severity, detection confidence, and organizational risk attitude. Each alert is represented as a fuzzy number with the core indicating severity, spread indicating uncertainty, and height reflecting detection reliability. We apply ranking indices to prioritize alerts, allowing organizations to tune security posture through a risk-attitude parameter. Experimental validation on CIC-IDS2017 and NSL-KDD demonstrates greater robustness than baselines under detector degradation (0.9963 vs 0.8215 NDCGrel@100), with distinct differentiation in mid-confidence alerts and near-parity with baselines under robust detectors. The framework is theoretically grounded, computationally efficient, provides interpretable reasoning, and remains robust across detector families and miscalibration scenarios.

Early-warning models built from Learning Management System (LMS) logs aim to predict end-of-course outcomes early enough to enable timely learner support. However, reported "early" performance is often inflated by temporal leakage. This occurs when the pipeline uses information that would not yet be available at the time of prediction. We formalize cutoff-based early outcome prediction under a temporal availability constraint and introduce LEAP (Leakage-Excluded Early-Availability Protocol), which enforces cutoff-first truncation prior to joins and aggregation and audits feature provenance to prevent post-cutoff evidence from entering the benchmark. We instantiate LEAP on the public Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD) as a multi-step protocol for leakage-controlled evaluation across weekly cutoffs. Using several standard learning methods, we evaluate performance using ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, Brier score, and F1@0.5. Results show improving performance as the observation window expands, with a marked gain around week~3; Random Forest performs best at the earliest cutoffs, while Gradient Boosting dominates thereafter. Leakage ablations further show that temporal violations, especially through assessment information, can inflate apparent "early" performance.

Streaming intrusion-detection studies assemble evaluation streams from network captures by interleaving capture days, pooling captures, or replaying records round robin. We show on two benchmarks that this assembly is an uncontrolled experimental treatment changing what the evaluation measures. On CICIDS2017, reordering an identical record multiset under a fixed positional 70/15/15 split yields held-out samples sharing only 32.5% of their records, at prevalences of 68.235% and 25.2396% (42.9954 points apart), and reverses the measured ordering of the two deterministic scorers. Restricting both arms to the 78000 records both held out removes the reversal, so it is attributable to which records the assembly hands to the test set, not to the order in which the detector saw its history. That attribution assumes that history contributes no more on the records the arms do not share than on those they do. On LITNET-2020, pooling three temporally disjoint captures reports one 6.4982% operating point, the equal-weight mean of per-capture held-out prevalences from 0.176% to 15.7747%, an identity presented as an audit check. The evaluated detector's reset posterior P(r_t=0) equals the hazard rate exactly below the run-length cap, though evaluations spend nearly all their length at or beyond it, and its evaluated score is a function of P(r<=5), not of P(r=0). Its deployed max composition ranks worse than its tail term alone (0.103477 AP, 0.302658 AUC-ROC) because the auxiliary branch is inverted (AUC-ROC 0.281890) and the maximum lets it set the score wherever the tail is small. With evaluated records and fitted model fixed, changing only the accompanying batch moves the ECOD reference implementation's AUC-PR by 0.003063, so published ECOD numbers are not comparable across studies scoring different batches. Every measured value traces to an archived, hash-verified run manifest.

Traditional anomaly detection marks events when measured signals cross predefined thresholds. This captures the moment of transition but not the structural pressure that precedes it. We propose treating large behavioral populations as geometric energy landscapes whose deformation can be measured before and during major transitions. The central thesis is that structure precedes geometry: the structural organization of the population is the signal, and geometric metrics are instruments for measuring it. Applied to the Tor anonymity network across 67 consecutive daily observation windows, the dual-observer pipeline identifies a stable nine-dimensional load-bearing subspace invariant across the observation period and validates this structure by Monte Carlo simulation at 16.8 sigma above the noise floor. Primary detection gates achieve 0.0% false positive rate on 24 confirmed stable windows. Forensic analysis of the February 20, 2026 confirmed infrastructure event formally falsifies the relay-departure hypothesis, identifying connectivity degradation without topology change as a detectable network failure mode. The result is a candidate structural-monitoring framework for behavioral populations with sufficient telemetry.

Every spring, flash floods strike the haor wetlands of northeast Bangladesh just before the boro rice harvest, and one flood can erase a family's entire crop in days. Warning people in time is hard here for a structural reason: the Sunamganj Haor is a flat, bowl-shaped basin that fills at once from local rain, domestic rivers, and the Barak River in India, while fewer than twelve working gauges cover its 8,000 km2. Existing models add a quieter problem of their own, because they train on raw temperature, which simply follows the season, so they learn the calendar instead of the flood, and none of them delivers a warning to a farmer. HaorFloodAlert answers both problems with free data alone: Sentinel-1 radar that sees through storm clouds, rainfall records and forecasts, soil moisture, and a modeled upstream Barak signal worth about 36 hours of lead time. A monthly climatological anomaly then removes the seasonal bias, cutting the temperature-label correlation from r=0.570 to r=-0.031. Tested by leave-one-out cross-validation on 77 events with real Sentinel-1 images (2014-2024), the Random Forest and XGBoost ensemble reaches 90.9% accuracy, 89.2% F1-score, and AUC 0.939, and these labels hold up against 12.3 years of official gauge records. The same system then ran live for ten days in May-June 2026 and raised a high-risk alert about three days before the river neared its danger level. Warnings go out in Bengali by SMS, e-mail, and WhatsApp, and every number here can be regenerated from our public, seeded pipeline.

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate near-future landslide risk by integrating observed rainfall with short-term rainfall forecasts from spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Although recent landslide prediction methods have improved predictive performance using statistical and deep learning approaches, most assume accurate rainfall inputs. In operational settings, however, landslide prediction relies on rainfall forecasts, which often contain spatial displacement of rainfall fields due to forecasting uncertainties. Such displacement can alter local accumulated rainfall and degrade prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose a novel LEWS robust to rainfall field displacement. The key idea is to learn latent representations from rainfall and terrain data that remain stable under displacement in rainfall field motion, enabling reliable geospatial data integration for landslide risk estimation. The landslide prediction model is trained using Rainfall-Motion-Aware Contrastive Learning (RMCL), which introduces temporally correlated rainfall field perturbations to emulate forecast-induced displacement in rainfall-driven spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Experiments were conducted using two years of rainfall and terrain data across Japan, covering 19 regions with landslide events. The proposed system achieved up to 37% higher precision than state-of-the-art baselines. These results demonstrate that modeling rainfall as a moving spatial field and addressing rainfall field displacement during learning significantly improve the reliability of short-term landslide prediction in operational early warning systems.

Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) systems aggregate log data from heterogeneous sources to detect coordinated attacks. Traditional rule-based correlation engines struggle to classify multi-step web application attacks because they examine each event without reference to the behavioural history of the originating host. We present Smart-SIEM, an AI module for the open-source Wazuh SIEM platform with two contributions: (1) a per-source-IP behavioural context vector encoding HTTP response-status distributions, peak rule activation counts, and MITRE ATT&CK technique frequencies from the N most recent prior events; (2) a two-stage hybrid cascade combining LightGBM for binary attack detection and XGBoost for six-class attack categorisation. Evaluated on 46,454 purpose-built Wazuh security events, context features improve all tested gradient boosting algorithms from ~0.705 macro F1 to 0.947-0.967 (Stage 1) and 0.876-0.914 (Stage 2), an average gain of +0.254 and +0.324 respectively. The hybrid cascade achieves F1 of 0.967 (binary) and 0.914 (six-class). Wazuh's native rule engine detects 0% of Brute Force and Broken Authentication events; the AI module detects 100% and 98.3% respectively. A self-adaptive retraining mechanism recovers from concept drift: F1 drops from 0.905 to 0.465 when unseen attack types emerge, recovering to 0.814 after retraining on the combined corpus.

Critical transitions - abrupt, often irreversible changes in system dynamics - arise across human and natural systems, often with catastrophic consequences. Real-world observations of such shifts remain scarce, preventing the development of reliable early warning systems. Conventional statistical and spectral indicators, such as increasing variance, tend to fail under realistic conditions of limited data and correlated noise, whereas existing deep learning classifiers do not extrapolate beyond their training data distribution. In this work, we introduce TipPFN, an in-context learning (ICL) framework that uses a prior-data fitted network to infer a system's proximity to a critical transition. Trained on our novel synthetic data generator, which is based on canonical bifurcation scenarios coupled to diverse, randomized stochastic dynamics, TipPFN flexibly capitalizes on contexts of various sizes, complexity and dimensionalities. We demonstrate robust, state-of-the-art early detection of critical transitions in previously unseen tipping regimes, sim-to-real examples, and real-world observations in both ICL and zero-shot settings.

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management decisions using past patient cases stored in electronic health records (EHRs). Our hypothesis is that a patient-management decision that is unusual with respect to past patient care may be due to an error and that it is worthwhile to generate an alert if such a decision is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from EHRs of 4486 post-cardiac surgical patients and a subset of 222 alerts generated from the data. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results of the study support our hypothesis that the outlier-based alerting can lead to promising true alert rates. We observed true alert rates that ranged from 25% to 66% for a variety of patient-management actions, with 66% corresponding to the strongest outliers.

Modern astronomical observatories generate a massive volume of multimodal data, creating a critical bottleneck for expert human review. While multimodal large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in interpreting complex visual and textual inputs, their ability to perform specialized scientific classification while providing interpretable reasoning remains understudied. We introduce AstroAlertBench, a comprehensive multimodal benchmark designed to evaluate LLM performance in astronomical event review along a three-stage logical chain: metadata grounding, scientific reasoning, and hierarchical classification over five categories. We use a pilot sample of 1,500 real-world alerts from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), a wide-field survey that scans the northern sky to detect transient astronomical events. On this dataset, we benchmark 13 frontier closed-source and open-weight LLMs that support visual input. Our results reveal that high accuracy does not always align with model ``honesty,'' defined as the ability to self-evaluate its reasoning, which affects its reliability as a real-world assistant. We further initialize a human-in-the-loop evaluation protocol as a precursor to future community-scale participation. Together, AstroAlertBench provides a framework for developing calibrated and interpretable astronomical assistants.

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management actions using past patient cases stored in an electronic health record (EHR) system. Our hypothesis is that patient-management actions that are unusual with respect to past patients may be due to a potential error and that it is worthwhile to raise an alert if such a condition is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from the electronic health records of 4,486 post-cardiac surgical patients. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results support that anomaly-based alerting can have reasonably low false alert rates and that stronger anomalies are correlated with higher alert rates.

Accurate early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental observations is essential for timely intervention and more sustainable crop protection. However, many existing studies formulate disease prediction as daily presence classification, which can favor persistence-driven predictions and provide only limited support for actionable short-horizon warning. In this paper, we present an event-based approach for early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental time series and evaluate it through a vineyard case study. Rather than predicting daily disease status, the task is reformulated to predict transitions into annotated disease-risk periods within a future window of 3-7 days. To reduce fragmentation caused by short interruptions in the binary labels, new events are defined only after a minimum disease-free gap. This formulation encourages models to capture environmental precursors associated with upcoming risk periods instead of merely reproducing temporal persistence. Using multi-year agro-meteorological data, we construct input representations that capture humidity dynamics, rainfall accumulation, temperature variability, and seasonal structure through cyclic temporal encoding. We evaluate representative methods from classical machine learning and deep learning, including XGBoost, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), using both standard classification metrics and an event-oriented early warning protocol. The results show that the event-based formulation supports practical short-horizon warning, while the compared models exhibit distinct trade-offs between event recall, lead time, and false-alert behavior. Overall, the study underscores the importance of problem formulation in environmental time-series learning and demonstrates the value of event-based prediction for vineyard disease warning systems.

This paper presents a Koopman-based framework for early outbreak detection and intervention selection in a multi-agent epidemic simulation. Agents exhibit mobility patterns, heterogeneous susceptibility, immunity-dependent viral load progression, and local transmission through co-location. The goal of the simulation is to study near-critical epidemic regimes in which small changes in exposure or timing can alter the final outcome. Aggregate daily observables from early trajectory windows are encoded into a low-dimensional Koopman latent space whose approximately linear evolution supports short-horizon forecasting and outbreak risk estimation. These representations are combined with a random forest classifier trained to predict whether the final attack rate exceeds a major outbreak threshold. Experiments near the system tipping points show strong early warning performance, with Koopman-derived features contributing to class separation. Counterfactual analysis further shows that minimal interventions, such as keeping a single selected agent at home for one day, can reduce attack rates and, often, shift the trajectory below the outbreak threshold.

Clinical time-series forecasting is increasingly studied for decision support, yet standard aggregate metrics can obscure whether a model is actually useful for the task it is meant to serve. In safety-critical settings, low average error can coexist with dangerous failures in exactly the high-risk regimes that matter most. We present a task-aware evaluation framework for blood glucose forecasting built around two downstream uses: hypoglycemia early warning and insulin dosing decision support. For early warning, we evaluate on real data from three clinical cohorts using event-level recall and false alarms per patient-day, metrics that reflect operational alarm burden rather than aggregate accuracy. We show that models appearing acceptable overall, with recall above 0.9 on the full test set, can fail badly in the post-bolus slice, where insulin-on-board is elevated and missed warnings carry the greatest clinical consequences. Standard forecasting evaluation, however, does not test whether a model can reason about the effects of actions, a requirement for supporting insulin dosing decisions. We therefore add a second, interventional arm using the FDA-accepted UVA/Padova simulator, where we evaluate whether forecasters can predict glucose responses to altered insulin plans in paired factual/counterfactual scenarios. We show that models that look strong on real-data forecasting often fail to predict the direction, magnitude, or ranking of intervention effects, and choose poor insulin doses when evaluated under a clinically motivated cost. Taken together, the two arms reveal a consistent gap between forecasting accuracy and task-relevant usefulness. We release the benchmark, the standardized preprocessing pipeline for public cohorts, and the simulator-based interventional dataset as a reproducible toolkit.

Security analysts are overwhelmed by the volume of alerts and the low context provided by many detection systems. Early-stage investigations typically require manual correlation across multiple log sources, a task that is usually time-consuming. In this paper, we present an experimental, agentic workflow that leverages large language models (LLMs) augmented with predefined queries and constrained tool access (structured SQL over Suricata logs and grep-based text search) to automate the first stages of alert investigation. The proposed workflow integrates queries to provide an overview of the available data, and LLM components that selects which queries to use based on the overview results, extracts raw evidence from the query results, and delivers a final verdict of the alert. Our results demonstrate that the LLM-powered workflow can investigate log sources, plan an investigation, and produce a final verdict that has a significantly higher accuracy than a verdict produced by the same LLM without the proposed workflow. By recognizing the inherent limitations of directly applying LLMs to high-volume and unstructured data, we propose combining existing investigation practices of real-world analysts with a structured approach to leverage LLMs as virtual security analysts, thereby assisting and reducing the manual workload.

The proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) devices has significantly expanded attack surfaces, making IoT ecosystems particularly susceptible to sophisticated cyber threats. To address this challenge, this work introduces A-THENA, a lightweight early intrusion detection system (EIDS) that significantly extends preliminary findings on time-aware encodings. A-THENA employs an advanced Transformer-based architecture augmented with a generalized Time-Aware Hybrid Encoding (THE), integrating packet timestamps to effectively capture temporal dynamics essential for accurate and early threat detection. The proposed system further employs a Network-Specific Augmentation (NA) pipeline, which enhances model robustness and generalization. We evaluate A-THENA on three benchmark IoT intrusion detection datasets-CICIoT23-WEB, MQTT-IoT-IDS2020, and IoTID20-where it consistently achieves strong performance. Averaged across all three datasets, it improves accuracy by 6.88 percentage points over the best-performing traditional positional encoding, 3.69 points over the strongest feature-based model, 6.17 points over the leading time-aware alternatives, and 5.11 points over related models, while achieving near-zero false alarms and false negatives. To assess real-world feasibility, we deploy A-THENA on the Raspberry Pi Zero 2 W, demonstrating its ability to perform real-time intrusion detection with minimal latency and memory usage. These results establish A-THENA as an agile, practical, and highly effective solution for securing IoT networks.

Timely detection of concerning events is an important problem in clinical practice. In this paper, we consider the problem of conditional anomaly detection that aims to identify data instances with an unusual response, such as the omission of an important lab test. We develop a new non-parametric approach for conditional anomaly detection based on the soft harmonic solution, with which we estimate the confidence of the label to detect anomalous mislabeling. We further regularize the solution to avoid the detection of isolated examples and examples on the boundary of the distribution support. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in detecting unusual labels on a real-world electronic health record dataset and compare it to several baseline approaches.

Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, yet standard early-warning signals such as order flow imbalance and short-term volatility are inherently reactive. We formalise this limitation via a three-regime causal data-generating process (stable $\to$ latent build-up $\to$ stress) in which a latent deterioration phase creates a prediction window prior to observable stress. Under mild assumptions on temporal drift and regime persistence, we establish identifiability of the latent build-up regime and derive guarantees for strictly positive expected lead-time and non-trivial probability of early detection. We propose a trigger-based detector combining MAX aggregation of complementary signal channels, a rising-edge condition, and adaptive thresholding. Across 200 simulations, the method achieves mean lead-time $+18.6 \pm 3.2$ timesteps with perfect precision and moderate coverage, outperforming classical change-point and microstructure baselines. A preliminary application to one week of BTC/USDT order book data shows consistent positive lead-times while baselines remain reactive. Results degrade in low signal-to-noise and short build-up regimes, consistent with theory.

Timely and interpretable early warning of sepsis remains a major clinical challenge due to the complex temporal dynamics of physiological deterioration. Traditional data-driven models often provide accurate yet opaque predictions, limiting physicians' confidence and clinical applicability. To address this limitation, we propose a Large Language Model (LLM)-guided temporal simulation framework that explicitly models physiological trajectories prior to disease onset for clinically interpretable prediction. The framework consists of a spatiotemporal feature extraction module that captures dynamic dependencies among multivariate vital signs, a Medical Prompt-as-Prefix module that embeds clinical reasoning cues into LLMs, and an agent-based post-processing component that constrains predictions within physiologically plausible ranges. By first simulating the evolution of key physiological indicators and then classifying sepsis onset, our model offers transparent prediction mechanisms that align with clinical judgment. Evaluated on the MIMIC-IV and eICU databases, the proposed method achieves superior AUC scores (0.861-0.903) across 24-4-hour pre-onset prediction tasks, outperforming conventional deep learning and rule-based approaches. More importantly, it provides interpretable trajectories and risk trends that can assist clinicians in early intervention and personalized decision-making in intensive care environments.

We propose a post-hoc adaptive conformal anomaly detection method for monitoring time series that leverages predictions from pre-trained foundation models without requiring additional fine-tuning. Our method yields an interpretable anomaly score directly interpretable as a false alarm rate (p-value), facilitating transparent and actionable decision-making. It employs weighted quantile conformal prediction bounds and adaptively learns optimal weighting parameters from past predictions, enabling calibration under distribution shifts and stable false alarm control, while preserving out-of-sample guarantees. As a model-agnostic solution, it integrates seamlessly with foundation models and supports rapid deployment in resource-constrained environments. This approach addresses key industrial challenges such as limited data availability, lack of training expertise, and the need for immediate inference, while taking advantage of the growing accessibility of time series foundation models. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed approach delivers strong performance, combining simplicity, interpretability, robustness, and adaptivity.

Agent safety benchmarks measure whether a monitor detects harm, not when. Yet timing is the difference between intervention and autopsy. We introduce StepShield, the first benchmark that treats detection timeliness as a first-class metric. On 9,429 incident-grounded code-agent trajectories, we define the Early Intervention Rate (EIR): the fraction of detected rogue trajectories where the alert fires within a k-step window after the divergence point, isolating timing quality from coverage. This metric exposes what we call the Forensics Trap: a pattern-based guardrail with 847 rules achieves 86% recall yet is statistically indistinguishable from random timing on EIR (0.23 vs. 0.24; p = 0.66, one-sided binomial; difference within CI), because over three-quarters of its alerts trigger on benign prefix code before any violation occurs. The 4x EIR gap between rule-based and semantic detectors is completely invisible to accuracy, recall, or F1. Our finding is structural: regex guardrails detect syntax, not intent, and therefore cannot distinguish the moment an agent turns rogue, rendering the entire deployed class of pattern-based monitors unsuited for real-time oversight. No existing method simultaneously achieves high recall, low false-positive rate, and timely intervention, establishing step-level rogue detection as genuinely unsolved.

Modern machine learning models excel at detecting individual actions, sounds, or scene attributes from short, localized observations. However, many real-world tasks, such as in smart cities and healthcare, require reasoning over high-level complex events (CEs): spatiotemporal, rule-governed patterns of short-term atomic events (AEs). Complex event detection (CED) is challenging due to long temporal dependencies, generalization beyond the training horizon, sparse CE-level supervision without temporally aligned fine-grained AE labels, and cognitively demanding annotation, as CE labels often depend on ordering, duration, negation, and completion-time semantics. These challenges are further amplified in an online setting that requires causal, streaming inference with limited computation. We identify the primary bottleneck in online CED as learning robust CE rules, and propose a Neural Algorithmic Reasoning framework that decouples rule learning from low-level sensor semantics by (i) generating large-scale synthetic AE-level concept traces to pretrain a Mamba-based CE-rule reasoner, and (ii) introducing an adapter that learns to map raw sensor inputs into the reasoner's latent space using limited, labeled sensor data. We introduce a controlled simulator-generated online multilabel CED testbed built from real-world multimodal sensor clips and rule-generated CE labels, with stress-test settings that vary sensor noise, distribution shift, and the window size used to segment streaming sensor sequences. Experiments on this controlled benchmark show that NAROCE is competitive with the strongest baselines and often outperforms them under these stress tests and longer-horizon generalization, while using 5x fewer labeled sensor sequences and 10-20x fewer FLOPs than all non-Mamba baselines. Code and dataset available at https://github.com/nesl/naroce_dailyoce.