Ground Truth

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14 papers in the last 28 days · 0.2% of indexed attention

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Period ending 2026-09-21

7 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Ground Truth.

Period ending 2026-09-14

4 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Ground Truth.

126 papers

Latest in Ground Truth

Jun 16, 2026cs.AI

MapSatisfyBench: Benchmarking Satisfaction-Aware Map Agents through Behavior-Grounded Implicit Decision Factors

Large language model agents are increasingly integrated into map services. Since map services are embedded in everyday-life scenarios rather than professional task settings, users often express their needs informally, resulting in underspecified queries with many unspoken needs, namely, implicit decision factors that are critical for user satisfaction. Although clarification is an effective way to mitigate this issue, it increases user burden in daily interaction, and a capable agent should first proactively recover such factors from available information sources. However, evaluating this ability is challenging. The first challenge is to determine which implicit decision factors are suitable for evaluation. A factor is evaluable only if it affects user acceptance and can be recovered from information available to the agent before it responds. Second, user satisfaction cannot be reliably represented by a single reference answer, requiring a benchmark that converts satisfaction-relevant factors into objective and quantifiable evaluation targets. To address these challenges, we propose a restore-identify-filter framework that reconstructs complete user needs from behavior-chain evidence, identifies implicit decision factors, and retains only those supported by pre-query evidence. Building on this methodology, we construct MapSatisfyBench from large-scale, real-world anonymized user data and annotate ground truth from five dimensions and enables full-chain evaluation of satisfaction-aware map agents. Experiments show that current agents generally perform well on explicit task completion, but remain limited in satisfying implicit decision factors and proactively acquiring the evidence needed for satisfaction-aware decisions. These findings establish MapSatisfyBench as a benchmark for shifting map-agent evaluation from task completion toward satisfaction-aware spatial decision making.
Lubin Bai, Mengyu Cao, Sixue Wang +5
Jun 13, 2026cs.CL

Prior over Evidence: Stereotype-Driven Diagnosis in LLM-Based L2 Pronunciation Feedback

Large language models are increasingly deployed for written pronunciation feedback in second-language (L2) English learning, under the assumption that their diagnoses are grounded in the supplied speech evidence rather than in priors from pretraining. This assumption is tested on 1,800 L2-Arctic utterances spanning six L1 backgrounds, three audio-capable LLMs, four pronunciation dimensions, and five evidence conditions ranging from a text-only baseline to numeric acoustic features and raw audio. Each (utterance x model x condition x dimension) cell is scored on three metrics: Rating Accuracy (RA) against gold labels, Evidence Coherence (EC) assessing internal consistency without ground truth, and Grounded Correctness (GC) evaluated against gold evidence. Results show three findings across models. First, rating accuracy and grounded reasoning decouple: 39.6% of judged cells contain internally coherent reasoning that supports a wrong rating, against only 15.8% where the reasoning supports a correct rating. Second, phoneme-level feedback converges to a fixed inventory of L2-English difficulty phones that recurs across all six L1 backgrounds and all evidence conditions. Third, acoustic evidence improves the rating only when the supplied feature directly probes the target dimension: textualised F0 range raises pitch-variation grounding from (0.18-0.19) to (0.45-0.62) across all three models, while stress and phoneme correctness, which require target-to-realisation alignment, remain ungrounded. The same audio waveform without textualised F0 values does not reproduce this improvement. These findings indicate that current general-purpose LLMs are more reliable as verbalisers of externally computed pronunciation evidence than as standalone diagnostic engines.
Rong Wang, Kun Sun
Jun 11, 2026cs.CV

Morphology-Aware Sample Assignment: Overcoming IoU Insensitivity for Surface Defect Detection

Intersection-over-Union (IoU), as a pivotal metric for evaluating the spatial alignment between candidate proposals and ground-truth annotations, directly determines the quality of positive sample sets and the training efficacy of visual detection models. Through theoretical modeling and analysis, we uncover a non-sensitive region on the IoU response curve, within which samples yield nearly identical IoU scores despite distinct geometric overlaps. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a set of morphological similarity metrics covering area, shape, and aspect ratio, to refine the positive sample assignment process, thereby ensuring more discriminative and reliable matching. A supplementary matching score is derived via mean-based aggregation of these multidimensional similarities, compensating for the intrinsic limitation of IoU in representing structural correspondence. Theoretically, incorporating morphological similarity reshapes the response distribution of the matching function, yielding both effective directional gradients and polygon-like iso-response contours, which tightly confine high-response regions around each ground-truth instance and substantially enhance the precision of positive sample selection. Experiments based on the YOLOv9 framework demonstrate consistent performance gains on both NEUDET and GC10- DET datasets. Notably, the proposed approach is fully plug-and-play and incurs zero additional inference overhead, thereby ensuring deployment efficiency for industrial visual inspection.
Pengfei Liu, Yuhan Guo
Jun 10, 2026cs.SD

LLM-Based Synthetic Ground Truth Generation for Audio-Based Emotion Classification via In-Context Learning

Understanding human states and interaction dynamics is a core goal of human-computer interaction (HCI). As interaction paradigms become more immersive, virtual reality (VR) has emerged as a powerful platform for studying collaborative work. In such settings, evaluating team collaboration states, including team performance and team resilience, requires continuous and reliable inference of latent team-level cognitive and affective states from multi-modal sensor data, such as speech signals. However, generating ground truth labels for these latent states remains challenging due to sensor-induced noise, contextual variability, and sparse expert annotations. Traditional self-reporting approaches provide only static and delayed measurements and are therefore insufficient for capturing dynamic team processes reflected in continuous speech data. In this work, we propose a large language model (LLM)-driven, agentic inference workflow for automated emotion-related synthetic ground truth generation from streaming speech data in multi-user VR environments. Leveraging the generalization capabilities of LLMs, we use In-Context Learning (ICL) with few-shot demonstrations of paired audio-based samples and their corresponding transcriptions. ICL tends to achieve task adaptation comparable to model fine-tuning while circumventing the computational overhead of parameter updates. To construct informative and robust in-context prompts, we adopt a retrieval-based selection strategy that dynamically identifies relevant audio demonstrations based on similarity in the acoustic feature space.
Qing Huang, Pooja Pol, Jianing Zhang
Jun 10, 2026cs.AI

The Art of Interrogation: Consistency Amplifies Factuality in Spatial Reasoning

Current Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) exhibit remarkable general capabilities but significantly underperform in spatial reasoning tasks. Existing approaches treat this gap as a knowledge deficit, relying on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to ingest labeled spatial data from external vision sources or synthetic engines. In contrast, we argue that for many tasks, spatial reasoning capabilities are already present in pre-trained LRMs but require alignment through logical coherence under geometric 2D and 3D constraints. In this work, we propose a self-supervised reinforcement learning (RL) framework that targets the internal reasoning process without requiring ground-truth annotations. By formalizing the notion of consistency verifiers -- reward functions that check for geometric and semantic consistency under transformations -- we demonstrate that models can improve their spatial reasoning abilities. We use both image transformations, like flipping, and textual transformations, like swapping the order of objects in the question, and propose a new optimal transport-based RL strategy, OT-GRPO, which is a minimal-matching variant of group relative policy optimization tailored to pairwise verifiers. We show that this label-free consistency training approaches the accuracy of models trained with ground-truth supervision and achieves similar generalization across diverse tasks and data domains.
Theo Uscidda, Marta Tintore Gazulla, Maks Ovsjanikov +2
Jun 10, 2026cs.CV

Scene-Adaptive Nonlinear Tone Curves for Pseudo Ground-Truth Generation in Low-Light 3D Gaussian Splatting

Low-light novel view synthesis is challenging because dark multi-view images contain noise, weak structural detail, and compressed dynamic range. Recent 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) methods address these challenges by generating pseudo ground-truth (pseudo-GT) images as supervision targets when paired normal-light references are unavailable. Existing pseudo-GT methods apply a uniform linear gain to all pixels, which clips bright regions while providing insufficient enhancement in dark regions, limiting reconstruction quality. We observe that nonlinear tone mappings, long established in 2D low-light enhancement, have not been explored for pseudo-GT generation in 3D reconstruction. Accordingly, we propose a scene-adaptive nonlinear tone-curve framework that replaces linear pseudo-GT with nonlinear alternatives. The framework introduces percentile-based normalisation for scene-agnostic curve application, a scene-adaptive offset for automatic black-level adjustment, and two complementary curves: Adaptive SoftExp (ASE), a bounded exponential curve, and Adaptive Poly3 (AP3), a data-driven cubic polynomial. The module changes only the pseudo-GT computation and leaves the 3DGS backbone unchanged. Experiments on three benchmarks covering 21 scenes show that both curves consistently outperform the linear baseline with PSNR improvements up to +4.34 dB on LOM and +3.25 dB on RealX3D. Both curves achieve similar performance despite their different mathematical forms, suggesting the improvement is curve-agnostic. Code is available at https://github.com/lvmingzhe/adaptiveToneCurve
Mingzhe Lyu, Jinqiang Cui, Hong Zhang
Jun 10, 2026cs.SD

The Hidden Cost of Pairwise Verification in Synthetic Speech Source Tracing

Open-set source tracing is increasingly framed as a verification problem, motivating the use of pairwise metric-learning objectives from biometrics. We thus compare global anchoring and pairwise verification under matched backbones and a fixed data and epoch budget on MLAAD (in-domain) and STOPA (out-of-domain). In our runs, global anchoring yields lower in-domain error (8.61% EER) than pairwise variants (12-15% EER), even with rival mining and XLS-R finetuning. Because pairwise objectives optimize similarity directly, they concentrate variance into fewer embedding directions, reducing resolution among closely related generators. To test if this drives the drop, we impose a similar bottleneck to the globally supervised baseline, yet the baseline remains competitive. Together with an embedding-space analysis (k99k_{99}), these results suggest that the gap is not explained by dimensionality alone, but rather by the pairwise objective's shaping of the retained directions.
Anton Firc, Zbyněk Lička, Vojtěch Staněk +1
Jun 9, 2026cs.CL

Provenance-Grounded Gating and Adaptive Recovery in Synthetic Post-Training Data Curation

Synthetic post-training pipelines commonly filter generated samples with reward models or holistic LLM judges, yet two practices remain rarely examined together: whether the filtering signal is grounded in the source evidence that induced each generation, and whether rejected samples can be systematically recovered rather than permanently discarded. We present a controlled study of both questions across gate configurations, recovery strategies, and generator scales, using adversarially injected corpora to provide ground-truth failure labels. We find that exact source provenance improves faithfulness gating for stronger judges, that hallucination and reward gates reject largely disjoint sample populations making both necessary, and that an adaptive recovery pipeline combining failure diagnosis with targeted regeneration achieves higher yield, recovery rate, and injection recall than naive resampling. Downstream fine-tuning quality is driven primarily by generator scale, with filtration and recovery conditions contributing meaningfully but secondarily.
Soham Bhattacharjee, Karun Sharma, Vinay Kumar Sankarapu +1
Jun 9, 2026cs.LG

One Step Closer to Ground Truth: A Multi-Scale Residual-Aware Representation Learning Pipeline for Predicting Time Series Data

Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies. Despite their success, these single-stage forecasting architectures exhibit persistent systematic residual biases arising from structural discrepancies, unmodeled stochastic components, or inadequate multi-scale temporal representations. This limitation persists when residuals are treated as irreducible noise, precluding adaptive correction of structured error patterns. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-stage, model-agnostic framework that explicitly decouples forecasting and residual learning into distinct stages of representation learning. A base transformer first generates the initial predictions. Subsequently, a dedicated meta-corrector dynamically models structured error patterns across multivariate channels, preserves cross-variable dependencies, and iteratively refines the residual bias of the base transformer. By formalizing this pipeline as a hypothesis space expansion, our framework addresses approximation limitations inherent in single-stage architectures, removes reliance on restrictive assumptions, and enables end-to-end learning of complex error dynamics. Evaluated on eight popular benchmark datasets using established protocols, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, with significant improvements in standard metrics (MSE, MAE). The results demonstrate the framework's ability to mitigate systematic biases and enhance robustness to complex temporal dynamics, advancing the practical applicability of transformer-based forecasting models.
Amrijit Biswas, Mustafa Kamal, Robin Krambroeckers +4
Jun 8, 2026cs.CL

Precision Is Not Faithfulness: Coverage-Aware Evaluation of Grounded Generation with a Complete Oracle

Reference-free faithfulness metrics verify each atomic claim a model makes against ground truth, and are increasingly used to evaluate grounded generation. We show they share a blind spot: they measure only precision -- are the stated claims supported? -- and therefore reward abstention, since a model can score near-perfect faithfulness by saying almost nothing. We make this measurable using Formula 1 telemetry, a domain where strategic ground truth is derived deterministically and, crucially, completely: for each decision we know the full set of facts that mattered. This completeness -- absent in open-domain faithfulness benchmarks -- lets us measure recall (coverage of the relevant facts) exactly, alongside precision. On a multilingual (EN/ES/PT) benchmark of 7,253 decision instances spanning 157 races, the most precise frontier model covers under half of the relevant facts and ranks last by F1, so requiring coverage reorders the systems; the same effect reappears in a second complete-oracle domain (NOAA weather forecasts). Fine-tuning small models (1B-7B) on the complete oracle closes the precision-recall gap entirely (F1 ~0.98), beating every zero-shot frontier system regardless of scale. We pair faithfulness with coverage into a single score, validate the metric (controlled perturbation; agreement across a model-free regex extractor and a cross-family LLM extractor, system-level Spearman 1.0), and give a verifier-guided generation method that improves precision and recall without references. We release the benchmark, structured annotations, metric, baselines, and an interactive demo.
Juan S. Santillana
Jun 7, 2026cs.CL

Auditing Proprietary Alignment in Large Language Models: A Comparative Framework Without a Ground-Truth Standard

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly released and deployed through opaque development and deployment pipelines, enabling model providers to inject intentional, provider-specific policies without officially announcing them. As a result, various models have been reported to generate responses reflecting proprietary rules and organizational interests, leading to censorship or misinformation on controversial topics. However, systematic identification of such alignment remains a fundamental challenge, complicated by the ambiguity of what ``proprietary'' entails in different contexts. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework for detecting proprietary alignment in black-box language models via comparative behavioral analysis. Our approach quantifies systematic deviations between the responses of a target model and those of a reference set of baseline models in a shared semantic space. By evaluating relative behavioral divergence rather than absolute correctness, our framework enables principled auditing under black-box access. Applied to several widely discussed but previously unquantified cases, it provides a systematic and scalable basis for external assessment of provider-specific alignment behavior in large language models.
Alireza Arbabi, Florian Kerschbaum
Jun 5, 2026cs.CV

Differences in Detection: Explainability Where it Matters

We propose Differences in Detection (DnD), an intuitive method to compare two object detection models. Based on the same matching algorithm, it complements the standard metrics of mean Average Precision (mAPmAP) and TIDE error analysis with the ability to compare two models directly. More specifically, we calculate the intersection of ground truth labels that are recognized by both models, followed by the corresponding difference sets and the complement set of ground truth labels that are missed by both models. The resulting comparison is more direct and intuitive than a comparison of independent summary statistics. It reveals individual and shared mistakes and becomes particularly interesting when combined with error types. In this case, the differences in detection errors can be analyzed naturally in a standard confusion matrix. While valuable in itself, we believe that one of the best applications of DnD is to guide explainability methods such as ODAM towards metric-relevant examples, grounded in structured subsets. The code for our method is available here: https://github.com/JohannesTheo/differences-in-detection
Johannes Theodoridis, Johannes Maucher, Andreas Schilling
Jun 5, 2026cs.CV

Cross-View Urban Traffic Dataset: Drone-Supervised Ground Truth for Monocular Bird's-Eye View Localization

We introduce a dataset and benchmark for cross-view urban traffic perception built from synchronized ego-centric bicycle videos and aerial drone videos recorded at real urban intersections. The benchmark targets two linked tasks: cross-view identity matching between street-view and drone-view object tracks, and ego-to-bird's-eye-view prediction using aerial supervision. In contrast to prior urban driving and V2X datasets, our benchmark provides identity-level alignment across radically different viewpoints together with standardized evaluation, annotation tooling, and baseline implementations. This setting is motivated by intersection-centric traffic analysis, where identity preservation, local interactions, and global spatial structure must be reasoned about jointly across views. We evaluate methods at both the track and frame levels, including cross-view ID precision/recall/IDF1, near--far breakdowns, temporal stability, and consistency metrics. We also provide baseline results for wedge-based cross-view matching and for three BEV prediction baselines: inverse perspective mapping, a MonoLayout-style learned baseline, and a regression baseline. The results show that the benchmark is feasible but challenging: cross-view matching achieves strong recall yet remains limited by over-assignment and temporal inconsistency, while ego-to-BEV prediction benefits from aerial supervision but remains far from saturated under lightweight monocular sensing. We hope that this benchmark will support future research on cross-view perception, urban scene alignment, and ego-to-global traffic understanding.
Prakhar Bhardwaj, Simone Weikl, Kilian Mang +1
Jun 4, 2026cs.CL

To Be Multimodal or Not to Be: Query-Adaptive Audio-Visual Person Retrieval via Active Modality Detection

When retrieving a person from a video archive by voice and face, should the system be multimodal or not? In real-world broadcast archives, unlike curated benchmarks, a target may be heard but unseen, seen but unheard, or both. Fusing scores from an absent modality injects noise, degrading precision below the best unimodal system. We propose a query-adaptive framework that detects active modalities via cross-modal score consistency: when both modalities are active, files retrieved by one also score highly on the other; this agreement breaks down when a modality is absent. Classifiers driven by these cross-modal features achieve 89% detection accuracy. On the BBC Rewind corpus (with over 12,000 broadcast videos) the adaptive system attains 94.2% P@1, outperforming speaker-only (82.9%), face-only (93.4%), and fixed fusion (90.0%), recovering 64% of the gap to an oracle with ground-truth modality labels (96.6%).
Erfan Loweimi, Mengjie Qian, Kate Knill +7
Jun 3, 2026eess.IV

Scaling Datasets for Multi-Sensor, Multi-Agent, and Multi-Domain Learning in Autonomous Systems

Existing datasets cannot support large-scale learning in multi-agent, multi-sensor, or multi-domain autonomy, where diversity and coordination are essential. We present a modular dataset generation pipeline that creates terabyte-scale, ground-truth-labeled data for ground, aerial, and infrastructure-based systems using the AVstack framework and CARLA simulator. Supporting single- and multi-agent configurations with flexible sensor suites, the pipeline enables controllable experimentation across challenging conditions. Representative perception and fusion studies show how generated data can support application-specific training and collaborative autonomy.
R. Spencer Hallyburton, David Hunt, Miroslav Pajic
Jun 2, 2026stat.ML

Central Description Length (CDL) Clustering Validation Index

Selecting a clustering algorithm and its hyperparameters without labels is a common difficulty in engineering machine learning pipelines that work with unsupervised analysis of sensor, image, or process data. Clustering validation indices (CVIs) provide internal scores for ranking candidate clusterings, but most popular CVIs are built from Euclidean compactness and separation terms and so tend to favour compact, convex partitions. Their performance is known to degrade on non convex, irregular, or variable density data, where kernel transformations or alternative distance measures are typically used at the cost of additional tuning and computation. This paper introduces the Central Description Length (CDL) clustering validation index. CDL uses the observed within cluster compactness, the estimated cluster centers, and the estimated cluster covariances to compute a probabilistic upper bound on the description length associated with the unobservable true cluster centers. The bound condenses intra cluster compactness and centroid displacement into a single computable quantity and is evaluated on the partition produced by any clustering algorithm. The implementation uses only observable quantities (the data, the partition, the estimated centers, and the estimated covariances) and does not use ground truth labels. On synthetic benchmarks with non convex and arbitrary shape clusters, CDL-CVI selected the reference number of clusters more often and reached higher Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) values than the conventional CVIs we tested, without an additional kernel preprocessing stage. On image benchmarks (MNIST, CIFAR-10, STL-10) clustered from frozen unsupervised embeddings, CDL-CVI returned cluster numbers close to the reference class counts across K-means, DBSCAN, and spectral clustering in the reported trials.
Mahdi Shamsi, Soosan Beheshti
May 29, 2026cs.CV

Score-Control for Hallucination Reduction in Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have emerged as the backbone of modern generative AI, powering advances in vision, language, audio and other modalities. Despite their success, they suffer from hallucinations, implausible samples that lie outside the support of true data distribution, which degrade reliability and trust. In this work, we first empirically confirm previously proposed hypothesis that score smoothness causes hallucinations in Image Generation diffusion models and provide a density-based perspective. We further formalize this notion by linking the hallucinations probability mass to lipschitz constant of the learned score function. Motivated by this, we introduce a Variance-Guided Score Modulation (VSM) strategy that controls the score Jacobian, in turn reducing score smoothness and better approximating the ground truth score that decreases hallucinations. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach reduces hallucinations (up to ~25%) while maintaining high fidelity and diversity, providing a principled step toward more reliable diffusion-based image generation. We also propose two benchmark datasets with extreme semantic variation for systematic hallucination evaluation. Code and Datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/bhosalems/VSM.
Mahesh Bhosale, Naresh Kumar Devulapally, Abdul Wasi +3
May 29, 2026cs.CV

Redefining Instance Matching: A Unified Framework for Part-Aware Matching in Panoptic Segmentation Evaluation

The Panoptic Quality (PQ) metric is the standard for jointly evaluating instance and semantic segmentation. However, its original definition relies on a One-to-One matching between predicted and ground truth segments, which is only straightforward when the IoU threshold exceeds 0.5. Below 0.5, multiple matching strategies emerge in a poorly explored problem space. We systematically elucidate this space by recasting segment matching as a constrained bipartite assignment problem. Independently bounding the prediction- and ground-truth-side degrees yields four matching strategies: One-to-One, Many-to-One, One-to-Many, and Many-to-Many. We show that the first three are well-defined within the PQ framework, while Many-to-Many falls outside it. These strategies become relevant when instances are fragmented, adjacent objects are difficult to delineate, or annotations are noisy. Central to our framework is a vertex-based accounting of TP, FN, and FP, anchored to ground truth and predicted segments rather than to matching edges. We further show that the framework extends naturally to part-aware panoptic segmentation, and we explore part-aware evaluation on biomedical data. Across configurable case studies we report how different combinations of thresholds and matching strategies behave in practice. We release a unified open-source package built on Panoptica. It exposes Voronoi-based region-wise analysis, part-aware evaluation, and Area Under Threshold Curve computations as configurable options.
Erik Großkopf, Soumya Snigdha Kundu, Hendrik Möller +9
May 29, 2026cs.CV

GGT-100K: Generative Ground Truth for Generalizable Real-World Image Restoration

Real-world image restoration (IR) is bottlenecked by the scarcity of high-quality paired training data. Synthetic datasets are abundant but often fail to model real-world degradations, while real-world paired datasets are expensive and difficult to capture. As a result, IR models trained on these datasets show limited generalization in real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose Generative Ground Truth (GGT) by using generative multimodal foundation models (MFMs) to produce high-quality (HQ) targets from real-world low-quality (LQ) images. We first conduct a systematic evaluation of nine state-of-the-art MFMs, including Nano-Banana-2 and GPT-Image-2, on images of various scenes and degradation types. The results demonstrate that Nano-Banana-2 with VLM-based adaptive prompting shows the highest capability to synthesize perceptually realistic and content-faithful HQ targets, which can serve as the GGT for the LQ input. We then employ Nano-Banana-2 to build a GGT synthesis pipeline, which involves multi-stage quality control to ensure data reliability, and construct GGT-100K, an LQ-HQ paired dataset comprising 103,707 training pairs and covering diverse scenes and complex real-world degradations. A test set of 500 image pairs is also established. Extensive experiments show that GGT-100K consistently improves the real-world generalization of a wide range of IR models, with particularly strong benefits for finetuning generative models for IR tasks. Our results suggest that MFMs can serve as practical tools for restoration-oriented data generation, and GGT-100K is a useful resource to expand the generalization boundaries of real-world IR models.
Xiangtao Kong, Jixin Zhao, Lingchen Sun +2
May 28, 2026cs.LG

Position: Every Ground Truth is a Human Construction, not an Objective Truth

Ground truth datasets play a fundamental role as reference values in the training and evaluation of machine learning models. This position paper argues that ground truths are not neutral objective measurements that are naturally given, but instead that they are constructed by arrangements of humans and technologies. We argue that the ML community will benefit from articulating and discussing these often invisible or unreported choices and acknowledging that reference data sets are contingent, not universal. Focusing on the situated and context-dependent nature of ground truths can improve reliability by enabling a better informed perspective on where, when, and how the datasets, and the models they have shaped, can best be used. We argue for increasing `situated reliability' which includes articulating the limits and strengths of models and their truth claims. Finally, paying more attention to the construction of ground truths can support transparency, accountability, and interdisciplinary work.
Charlotte Högberg, Ericka Johnson, Kiri L. Wagstaff
May 28, 2026cs.AI

ProjectionBench: Evaluating Scientific Hypothesis Generation in LLMs Under Progressive Information Disclosure

Scientific discovery is an inherently creative and uncertain process, requiring reasoning beyond the recall of known knowledge. While many benchmarks have been proposed to evaluate large language model (LLM) performance on deep research tasks via multi-hop retrieval, their innovative reasoning abilities essential for true scientific discovery remain largely untested. We introduce a benchmark framework for evaluating model performance in scientific discovery and reasoning, building up from a raw problem to the classical null hypothesis test. In our framework, models initially receive only the topic and research question from a recent paper, with technical details progressively revealed. At each stage of information disclosure, the model is tasked with generating hypotheses that address the research question, which is compared with the conclusions from the original paper and evaluated via automated semantic similarity of constituent atomic claims. This progressive evaluation of semantic divergence from ground-truth conclusions enables assessment of a model's innovativeness (under minimal information) to grounded reasoning capabilities (under full experimental details), both critical for using LLMs for scientific discovery purposes. Our framework provides a foundation for systematically evaluating scientific reasoning and discovery capabilities in LLMs, crucial for advancing the development of next-generation AI scientist/co-scientist systems. Specifically, here we evaluate GPT-5, GPT-5.4, Gemini 2.5 pro, and Gemini 3.1 pro preview across 45 papers spanning bioactive materials, mechanical materials, and nanomaterials. We find that GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 pro outperform their previous generation counterparts as expected, and GPT-5.4 in particular maintains 0.7 F1 score alignment with ground truth conclusions even under minimal context.
A. J. Lew, Y. Cao, M. J. Buehler
May 28, 2026stat.ML

Prediction-Powered Inference Across Many Tasks for AI Evaluation & Social Science Research

Many applications require statistically valid inference across many related tasks, while using only a handful of high-quality labels per hypothesis. In AI evaluation, these tasks may correspond to model behaviors across prompts, subgroups, or hypotheses; in social science surveys, they may correspond to related questions, populations, or measurement conditions. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) uses abundant but inexpensive proxy measurements to improve inference from limited, ground-truth labels, but commonly used methods treat tasks independently and therefore fail to exploit shared structure across related tasks. This limitation is especially important in settings where only a small number of labels are available per task. To address this issue, we introduce a multi-task prediction-powered inference framework that uses labeled data from related tasks to improve power while preserving task-specific inference. Our methods exploit the shared structure in the proxy-ground-truth relationship through cross-task recalibration, while retaining within-task rectification and power tuning to construct accurate point estimates and confidence intervals. We prove that efficiency gains beyond power-tuned PPI are only possible when the proxy-ground-truth relationship contains nonlinear structure; affine cross-task recalibrations are asymptotically equivalent to using the original proxy. We complement our theoretical findings with experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, as well as a case study auditing language models on election-related information during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Using a large human-annotation study, we show that cross-task recalibration can substantially reduce confidence interval widths when labels are scarce.
Nicolas Emmenegger, Ellery Stahler, Chara Podimata
May 28, 2026cs.AI

Rethinking Literature Search Evaluation: Deep Research Helps, and Human Citation Lists Are Not a Ground Truth

We study large-scale literature search from two complementary angles: improving the retrieval pipeline, and stress-testing the human reference list as an evaluation target. First, we implement a Deep Research pipeline that processes the full query paper and expands the retrieved results breadth-first along their bibliographies, and show that it substantially outperforms vanilla API-only search, raising recall on RollingEval-Jun25 (a 250-paper literature-search benchmark) from below 20% to above 80%. Second, we use a neutral LLM-as-a-judge to determine if human references are sound ground truth for the task. We find significant limitations: only 51% of human citations are judged moderately relevant or higher, against 86--88% for the strongest AI-based re-rankers. We study this gap on the OpenAlex co-authorship graph, finding that humans are 2.5x more likely than the best AI re-rankers to cite a direct collaborator. Together, our results argue against single-axis literature-search evaluation: recall, topical-relevance scoring, ranked-list diversity, and a co-authorship-distance diagnostic each measure complementary properties of citation quality and should be reported jointly.
Gaurav Sahu, Laurent Charlin, Christopher Pal
May 27, 2026cs.LG

Where LLM Annotators Fail: Label-Free Learning on Graphs with LLMs

Node classification on graphs often requires labeled nodes, yet obtaining labels at graph scale is expensive. When node attributes contain semantic content, such as paper abstracts, web pages, or product descriptions, large language models (LLMs) can provide low-cost supervision by annotating a small subset of nodes. However, these LLM-generated labels are noisy, and existing label-free graph learning methods usually treat this noise as either global or class-conditional. We find that LLM annotation errors are not only class-dependent but also region-dependent: within the same class, reliability can vary sharply across feature-space clusters. In light of this, we propose Cluster-Aware Noise Estimation (CANE), a label-free learning framework that estimates cluster-conditional LLM reliability without ground truth labels, and uses this estimate to decide which pseudo-labels to trust, and which labels to correct. Across various graph benchmarks and GNN backbones, CANE improves over the strongest label-free baselines, with the largest gains on datasets exhibiting stronger cluster-conditional noise.
Safal Thapaliya, Jiatan Huang, Chuxu Zhang
May 26, 2026cs.CY

Ground Truths in Suicide Research: The Current State of AI-Based Suicide Detection in Social Media

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and social media data have led to growing optimism about the ability to detect suicide risk at scale. However, the empirical foundations of this work remain unclear. This article provides a synthesis of current research on AI-based suicide detection in social media, drawing on a recent umbrella review of 22 systematic reviews covering studies up to 2022, alongside an ongoing literature review extending the analysis to more recent work. Across these sources, we identified 195 relevant studies, which are documented in a detailed supplementary dataset outlining their key characteristics and findings (see Supplementary Information). Analysis of these studies reveals consistent patterns, including rapid growth, concentration on a small number of platforms, reliance on textual and English-language data, and repeated use of similar datasets. Most importantly, the majority of studies rely on indirect labeling strategies that do not involve direct, individual-level validation of suicide risk. Instead, ground truth is typically inferred from observable features of online content, such as linguistic markers or community membership. As a result, the predictive task often shifts from identifying individuals at risk to classifying posts that contain suicidal or distress-related language, limiting the ability of current approaches to detect individuals who do not express such content explicitly online. These findings suggest that current advances in model performance should be interpreted with caution. Progress in this field is likely to depend less on improving model performance and more on ensuring that model predictions meaningfully correspond to suicide risk as it is experienced in real life.
Yaakov Ophir, Ofri Hefetz, Refael Tikochinski +6
May 26, 2026cs.RO

SteelDS: A High-Resolution Video Dataset of E40 Steel Scrap for Object Detection and Instance Segmentation

This dataset provides high-resolution, annotated video sequences of shredded E40-grade steel and copper scrap on a conveyor belt. Captured in a controlled laboratory environment, the data reflects the industrial post-magnetic sorting stage, where manual intervention is typically required to remove copper contaminants. The dataset comprises 24,297 labeled frames across five subsets, featuring 396 steel and 101 copper objects categorized by size. It supports the development of machine learning models for material classification, object detection, and instance segmentation. Variations in object spacing and density are included to simulate realistic industrial sorting conditions. Ground truth annotations include pixel-wise segmentation masks and material classes. This dataset serves as a benchmark for evaluating automated sorting algorithms aiming to identify copper impurities within complex, heterogeneous steel scrap streams.
Melanie Neubauer, Christian Rauch, Gerald Koinig +3
May 25, 2026cs.LG

When Self-Belief Misleads: Active Label Acquisition for Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable advancements in reasoning capabilities empowered by Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Nonetheless, RLVR intrinsically relies on ground-truth labels for reward computation, the acquisition of which is often prohibitively expensive in real-world scenarios. While unsupervised RLVR paradigms attempt to circumvent this by training on pseudo-labels, they are notoriously susceptible to training collapse. Moreover, different samples often exhibit varying annotation values. In this paper, we propose Reinforcement Learning with Active Verifiable Rewards (RLAVR), which actively acquires ground-truth labels for a small set of selected samples and integrates them with pseudo-labels, thereby stabilizing training dynamics and improving performance under limited annotation budgets. To identify valuable samples, we propose the Corrective Advantage Gap (CAG) metric and analyze the sample-level supervision value. Building on this, we introduce Correction-Aware Reliability Estimation for RLAVR (CARE), which translates the oracle CAG criterion into a practical pre-query acquisition policy to substantially improve training stability. Extensive experiments across diverse domains, model families, and model scales demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Lumina04/CARE.
Li Wang, Xiaodong Lu, Xiaohan Wang +5
May 24, 2026cs.CL

Faithfulness Metrics Don't Measure Faithfulness: A Meta-Evaluation with Ground Truth

Chains of thought (CoTs) have become central in interpreting and auditing behaviors of large language models. Yet growing evidence suggests that these traces often fail to faithfully represent the computations behind a model's predictions. Several faithfulness metrics have been proposed, but whether they indeed measure faithfulness remains unknown. Answering this requires ground-truth labels, which are hard to obtain since internal computations are not directly observable. Consequently, most works proposing metrics report only absolute scores or comparisons to prior metrics, and the few existing benchmarks rely on proxies like plausibility or importance, properties orthogonal to faithfulness that can mislead about whether a CoT can be trusted. We address this challenge by constructing tasks whose outputs reveal which intermediate computations must have produced them, and developing an automated labeling pipeline that yields ground-truth faithfulness labels at both the step and CoT level. Building on this methodology, we present BonaFide, a benchmark of 3,066 labeled CoTs across 13 tasks and 10 models, and use it to conduct the first systematic evaluation of prominent faithfulness metrics. Our experiments show that most metrics perform near chance, exhibit strong prediction biases and degrade on longer CoTs. The best metric reaches only 0.70 AUROC at the CoT level while another reaches 0.59 at the step level, with neither transferring across settings, while entailing prohibitively high computational cost. Our results expose fundamental gaps in current faithfulness evaluation and call for the development of more reliable and efficient metrics.
Yoav Gur-Arieh, Ana Marasović, Mor Geva
May 23, 2026cs.CV

Calibrating Probabilistic Object Detectors with Annotator Disagreement

High degrees of disagreement among annotators can exist for ambiguous objects, e.g. in medical images, underscoring the challenges of establishing ground truth annotations in object detection tasks. Despite this, all existing object detectors implicitly require access to ground truth annotations for either training or evaluation. The fundamental questions we target are: How can we learn an object detector with multiple annotators' annotations but without objective ground truth annotations due to object ambiguity, and how can we enable the learned detector to express meaningful model predictive uncertainties in detecting ambiguous objects? To answer these questions, we present an interpretable approach to calibrate probabilistic object detectors, where the calibration goal is to align the class confidence and bounding box variance estimates to the annotators' annotation distribution. We introduce an efficient yet effective framework to calibrate probabilistic object detectors by designing four evaluation metrics to measure calibration errors regarding classification and localization, and proposing a train-time calibration and post-hoc calibrator, all without the need to access any ground truth. This framework is generalizable to many existing probabilistic object detectors, such as the YOLO families and two-stage detectors. Empirical results with real-world and synthetic datasets of medical and natural images demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed framework with three popular object detectors.
Zhi Qin Tan, Owen Addison, Yunpeng Li
May 21, 2026cs.LG

A Posterior-Predictive Variance Decomposition for Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate wind power forecasting requires reliable uncertainty quantification, yet most existing methods report a single predictive uncertainty that conflates epistemic and aleatoric sources. This paper applies the law of total variance to the joint setting of heteroscedastic neural network regression and Bayesian posterior approximation, deriving an explicit decomposition of total uncertainty (TU) into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The resulting estimators are compatible with standard posterior-approximation methods and with ββ-NLL training to regulate the mean--variance learning trade-off. A wind power--specific evaluation framework is proposed to validate disentanglement without access to ground-truth uncertainty labels, comprising three modules: controlled synthetic experiments to verify responses to heteroscedastic noise and distribution shift; data-property--driven validation on a real-world wind turbine SCADA dataset; and dataset-size scaling experiments to examine the predicted asymptotic behavior of EU. Across synthetic and real-world experiments, the decomposed AU and EU components respond in theoretically consistent directions to noise structure, distributional shift, and training-scale variation, supporting the theoretical consistency and operational utility of the proposed decomposition and evaluation protocol.
Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. Muttaqi
May 20, 2026cs.CL

WCXB: A Multi-Type Web Content Extraction Benchmark

Web content extraction - isolating a page's main content from surrounding boilerplate - is a prerequisite for search indexing, retrieval-augmented generation, NLP dataset construction, and large language model training. Progress in this area has been constrained by the limitations of existing evaluation benchmarks, which are small (100-800 pages), restricted to news articles, or based on web pages from over a decade ago. We introduce the Web Content Extraction Benchmark (WCXB), a dataset of 2,008 web pages from 1,613 domains spanning seven structurally distinct page types: articles, forums, products, collections, listings, documentation, and service pages. The dataset includes a 1,497-page development set and a 511-page held-out test set with matched page type distributions. Ground truth annotations were produced through a five-stage pipeline: LLM-assisted drafting, automated verification, four-pass frontier model review, snippet and quality verification scripts, and human review. We evaluate 13 extraction systems - 11 heuristic and 2 neural - and find that while top systems converge on articles (F1 = 0.93), performance diverges sharply on structured page types (F1 = 0.41-0.84), revealing blind spots invisible to existing article-only benchmarks. The dataset is released under CC-BY-4.0 with HTML source files, ground truth annotations, page type labels, and baseline results.
Murrough Foley
May 19, 2026cs.CV

Depth2Pose: A Pose-Based Benchmark for Monocular Depth Estimation without Ground-Truth Depth

Monocular depth estimation has improved significantly in recent years, driven by increasingly powerful models and large-scale training data. Predicted depth is increasingly used as an input signal for downstream tasks such as Structure-from-Motion (SfM), visual localization, and SLAM. However, monocular depth estimators (MDEs) are still primarily evaluated in terms of depth accuracy. Standard metrics aggregate errors globally and may not reflect the usefulness of depth for downstream geometric tasks. We therefore propose Depth2Pose, a framework for evaluating MDEs in the context of downstream tasks. By combining depth predictions with feature correspondences in depth-aware geometric solvers, we use relative camera pose estimation accuracy as a task-driven proxy for depth quality. Traditional benchmarks require dense ground truth in the form of per-pixel depth, which is expensive to obtain. In contrast, our formulation requires only camera poses, which can be estimated efficiently, e.g., using Structure-from-Motion pipelines. As a result, our framework can be applied to scenes where ground-truth depth is difficult to obtain, for example due to large scene scale or heavy occlusions (e.g., vegetated environments). Leveraging this, we introduce the D2P dataset, which contains challenging scenes outside the distribution of commonly used training data. We show that methods performing well under standard depth error metrics on existing benchmarks also perform well under our pose-based metric when evaluated on the same datasets, but do not necessarily generalize to our more challenging dataset. Finally, we provide a simple and extensible evaluation framework. The dataset and code are available at kocurvik.github.io/depth2pose.
Viktor Kocur, Sithu Aung, Gabrielle Flood +4
May 19, 2026cs.CV

Preferences Order, Ratings Anchor: From Fused Expert Aesthetic Ground Truth to Self-Distillation

Pairwise preferences and pointwise ratings are the two dominant annotation protocols in image aesthetic assessment (IAA), yet existing benchmarks adopt only one, leaving their complementarity unmeasured under controlled conditions. We introduce PPaint, a matched dual-protocol benchmark in which 15 domain experts, 5 per category, annotate 150 Chinese paintings under both protocols across five aesthetic dimensions, collecting 45,900 pairwise expert judgments through a locally dense preference design alongside the matched ratings. The matched design reveals complementary strengths: preferences yield more consistent ordinal rankings, while ratings anchor the absolute score scale. Fusing both signals via two independent preference-to-score methods yields a fused expert ground truth on which the two constructions converge to nearly identical scores. The same preference-to-score principle extends to label-free VLM training. PSDistill converts VLM pairwise judgments into calibrated pseudo-scores via an Elo reference pool, and trains the same VLM with confidence-weighted ranking optimization to produce a single-pass aesthetic scorer. Trained on a single painting category, the distilled Qwen3-VL-8B improves mean SRCC from 0.504 to 0.709 across all three categories, outperforming all open-source baselines including the dedicated aesthetic model ArtiMuse and matching closed-source Gemini-3.1-Pro within 0.04 SRCC at single-pass inference cost, with cross-domain transfer further validated on APDDv2. We will release the full PPaint dataset and training code.
Yuanpei Zhao, Jie Lin, Chao Zhang +5
May 18, 2026cs.LG

Domain Transfer Becomes Identifiable via a Single Alignment

Domain transfer (DT) maps source to target distributions and supports tasks such as unsupervised image-to-image translation, single-cell analysis, and cross-platform medical imaging. However, DT is fundamentally ill-posed: push-forward mappings are generally non-identifiable, as measure-preserving automorphisms (MPAs) preserve marginals while altering cross-domain correspondences, leading to content-misaligned translation. Recent work shows that MPAs can be eliminated by jointly transferring multiple corresponding source/target conditional distributions, but supervision signals labeling such conditionals are not always available in practice. We develop an alternative route to DT identifiability. Under a structural sparsity condition on the Jacobian support pattern, we show that distribution matching together with a single paired anchor sample suffices to identify the ground-truth transfer -- requiring substantially less supervision than prior approaches. To enable practical high-dimensional learning, we further propose an efficient Jacobian sparsity regularizer based on randomized masked finite differences, yielding a scalable surrogate without explicit Jacobian evaluation. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world DT tasks validate the theory.
Sagar Shrestha, Subash Timilsina, Hoang-Son Nguyen +1
May 16, 2026cs.LG

Stress-Testing Neural Network Verifiers with Provably Robust Instances

Neural network verifiers aim to provide formal guarantees on model behavior, but existing verification benchmarks are fundamentally limited by their lack of ground-truth labels. As a result, verifier evaluation relies on indirect heuristics, which prevents exact scoring and systematic study of verifier failure modes. We address this gap by introducing a reusable framework for generating verification instances whose ground-truth robustness labels are known a priori through analytic construction. Our framework led to the discovery of multiple numeric tolerance concerns and an implementation bug in popular verifiers, highlighting the need for ground-truth labels. Additionally, to systematically study verifier failure modes, we introduce the verification Difficulty Profile, a collection of estimable quantities capturing distinct sources of instance hardness. Using our framework and these profiles, we evaluate five state-of-the-art verifiers and show that different instances stress distinct aspects of the verification pipeline. We show that these results can aid the future development of verifiers as they provide actionable targets for improving numerical reliability, relaxation quality, and search behavior. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/dtroxell19/VeriStressGT.git.
David Troxell, Yulia Alexandr, Sofia Hunt +2
May 13, 2026stat.ML

On Hallucinations in Inverse Problems: Fundamental Limits and Provable Assessment Methods

Artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed imaging inverse problems, from medical diagnostics to Earth observation. Yet deep neural networks can produce hallucinations, realistic-looking but incorrect details, undermining their reliability, especially when ground truth data is unavailable. We develop a theoretical framework showing that such hallucinations are not merely artifacts of particular models, but can arise from the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem itself. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for hallucinations, together with computable bounds on their magnitude that depend only on the forward model. Building on this theory, we introduce algorithms to: (1) estimate the minimum hallucination magnitude achievable by any reconstruction model for a given input; (2) assess the faithfulness of reconstructed details by a given reconstruction model. Experiments across three imaging tasks demonstrate that our approach applies broadly, including to modern generative models, and provides a principled way to quantify and evaluate AI hallucinations.
David Iagaru, Nina M. Gottschling, Anders C. Hansen +1
May 12, 2026cs.LG

From Generalist to Specialist Representation

Given a generalist model, learning a task-relevant specialist representation is fundamental for downstream applications. Identifiability, the asymptotic guarantee of recovering the ground-truth representation, is critical because it sets the ultimate limit of any model, even with infinite data and computation. We study this problem in a completely nonparametric setting, without relying on interventions, parametric forms, or structural constraints. We first prove that the structure between time steps and tasks is identifiable in a fully unsupervised manner, even when sequences lack strict temporal dependence and may exhibit disconnections, and task assignments can follow arbitrarily complex and interleaving structures. We then prove that, within each time step, the task-relevant latent representation can be disentangled from the irrelevant part under a simple sparsity regularization, without any additional information or parametric constraints. Together, these results establish a hierarchical foundation: task structure is identifiable across time steps, and task-relevant latent representations are identifiable within each step. To our knowledge, each result provides a first general nonparametric identifiability guarantee, and together they mark a step toward provably moving from generalist to specialist models.
Yujia Zheng, Fan Feng, Yuke Li +3
May 12, 2026cs.LG

Fine-Grained Benchmark Generation for Comprehensive Evaluation of Foundation Models

Evaluation of foundation models often rely on aggregate scores from benchmarks that lack comprehensive coverage and metadata for a fine-grained evaluation. We introduce a framework for automated benchmark generation. Our framework generates evaluation problems grounded in reference material, such as textbooks, producing benchmarks with broad coverage, rich metadata, and robustness to contamination. The pipeline employs a multi-agent architecture for problem generation and a solution-graph-driven strategy that significantly improves the reliability of ground truth solutions. Using the framework, we generate three benchmarks in Machine Learning, Corporate Finance, and Personal Finance. Expert review finds a significantly lower ground-truth error rate than previous benchmarks such as MMLU and GSM8K. Evaluation of 12 commercial and open-source models shows that our benchmarks achieve near-uniform competency coverage and surface performance differences across models that existing benchmarks fail to capture. We will open-source the framework and our curated benchmarks soon.
Mohammed Saidul Islam, Negin Baghbanzadeh, Farnaz Kohankhaki +5
May 12, 2026cs.CV

When Looking Is Not Enough: Visual Attention Structure Reveals Hallucination in MLLMs

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have become a key interface for visual reasoning and grounded question answering, yet they remain vulnerable to visual hallucinations, where generated responses contradict image content or mention nonexistent objects. A central challenge is that hallucination is not always caused by a simple lack of visual attention: the model may still assign substantial attention mass to image tokens while internally drifting toward an incorrect answer. In this paper, we show that the high-frequency structure of visual attention, measured by layer-wise Laplacian energy, reveals both the layer where hallucinated preferences emerge and the layer where the ground-truth answer transiently recovers. Building on this finding, we propose LaSCD (Laplacian-Spectral Contrastive Decoding), a training-free decoding strategy that selects informative layers via Laplacian energy and remaps next-token logits in closed form. Experiments on hallucination and general multimodal benchmarks show that LaSCD consistently reduces hallucination while preserving general capabilities, highlighting its potential as a faithful decoding paradigm. The code is available at https://github.com/macovaseas/LaSCD.
Fanpu Cao, Xin Zou, Xuming Hu +1
May 11, 2026cs.LG

A Comparative Study of Model Selection Criteria for Symbolic Regression

Effective model selection is critical in symbolic regression (SR) to identify mathematical expressions that balance accuracy and complexity, and have low expected error on unseen data. Many modern implementations of genetic programming (GP) for SR generate a set of Pareto optimal candidate solutions, but reliable automatic selection of solutions that generalize well remains an open issue. Current literature offers various information-theoretic and Bayesian approaches, yet comprehensive comparisons of their performance across different data regimes are limited. This study presents a systematic empirical comparison of widely used selection criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the corrected AIC (AICc), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), minimum description length (MDL), as well as Efron's bootstrap estimate for the in-sample prediction error on seven synthetic datasets with Gaussian noise. We rank candidate expressions generated by perturbing ground-truth functions to assess generalization error and selection probability of the ground-truth expression. Our findings reveal that MDL consistently identifies models with the lowest test error and the shortest length across most datasets. While no single criterion dominates all results, MDL and BIC produced the highest probability of selecting the ground-truth expressions.
Ali Soltani, Gabriel Kronberger, Fabricio Olivetti de Franca +2
May 9, 2026cs.LG

Predicting Large Model Test Losses with a Noisy Quadratic System

We introduce a predictive model that estimates the pre-training loss of large models from model size (N), batch size (B) and number of weight updates (K). This is the first loss prediction model that can handle changing batch size. The model outperforms Chinchilla's loss model, a model of the test loss using the batch size and number of tokens, in terms of projecting the loss at extrapolated compute budgets (up to 1000 folds). A natural use of the model is to find optimal N, B, K configurations under explicit and compound resource constraints like time, memory and compute. In our experiments, the model-selected configurations are close to ground-truth optimal. Our work advocates for loss prediction as a better alternative to heuristic-based laws, which are growing in complexity. The implementation is available on https://github.com/chuningxdy/Noisy-Quadratic-System.
Chuning Li, Chris J. Maddison
May 8, 2026cs.CL

Beyond Single Ground Truth: Reference Monism as Epistemic Injustice in ASR Evaluation

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) evaluation compares system output to ground truth transcripts, with Word Error Rate (WER) quantifying the distance between them. But ground truth transcripts are not discovered - they are produced by human annotators following conventions that encode normative assumptions about which speech features matter. Different conventions (verbatim, non-verbatim, legal) produce different transcripts of identical speech and judge the same ASR output differently. This paper argues that reference monism - enforcing a single transcription convention as ground truth - commits epistemic injustice. Speakers with aphasia, whose speech includes clinically meaningful disfluencies, are systematically disadvantaged when evaluated against "clean" references that treat those disfluencies as errors. The harm is not merely differential performance, but that evaluative infrastructure lacks interpretive resources to recognize their contributions as legitimate. We develop a philosophical framework introducing the hermeneutical gap, formalize Epistemic Injustice Distance (EID) to measure reference monism's cost, and demonstrate empirically using AphasiaBank that WER varies depending on which convention defines ground truth. We propose WER-Range: reporting performance across legitimate conventions rather than assuming a single correct answer.
Anna Seo Gyeong Choi, Maria Teleki, James Caverlee +3
May 7, 2026cs.LG

When No Benchmark Exists: Validating Comparative LLM Safety Scoring Without Ground-Truth Labels

Many deployments must compare candidate language models for safety before a labeled benchmark exists for the relevant language, sector, or regulatory regime. We formalize this setting as benchmarkless comparative safety scoring and specify the contract under which a scenario-based audit can be interpreted as deployment evidence. Scores are valid only under a fixed scenario pack, rubric, auditor, judge, sampling configuration, and rerun budget. Because no labels are available, we replace ground-truth agreement with an instrumental-validity chain: responsiveness to a controlled safe-versus-abliterated contrast, dominance of target-driven variance over auditor and judge artifacts, and stability across reruns. We instantiate the chain in SimpleAudit, a local-first scoring instrument, and validate it on a Norwegian safety pack. Safe and abliterated targets separate with AUROC values between 0.89 and 1.00, target identity is the dominant variance component (η2≈0.52η^2 \approx 0.52), and severity profiles stabilize by ten reruns. Applying the same chain to Petri shows that it admits both tools. The substantial differences arise upstream of the chain, in claim-contract enforcement and deployment fit. A Norwegian public-sector procurement case comparing Borealis and Gemma 3 demonstrates the resulting evidence in practice: the safer model depends on scenario category and risk measure. Consequently, scores, matched deltas, critical rates, uncertainty, and the auditor and judge used must be reported together rather than collapsed into a single ranking.
Sushant Gautam, Finn Schwall, Annika Willoch Olstad +6
May 7, 2026cs.AI

Probabilistic Dating of Historical Manuscripts via Evidential Deep Regression on Visual Script Features

We introduce a probabilistic approach for dating historical manuscript pages from visual features alone. Instead of aggregating centuries into classes as is standard in the previous literature, we pose dating as an evidential deep regression problem over a continuous year axis, allowing our neural network to output a full predictive distribution with decomposed aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a single forward pass. Our architecture combines an EfficientNet-B2 backbone with a Normal-Inverse-Gamma (NIG) output head trained with a joint negative-log-likelihood and evidence-regularization objective. On the DIVA-HisDB benchmark (150 pages, 3 medieval codices, 151,936 patches), our model scores a test MAE of 5.4 years, well below the 50-year century-label supervision granularity, with 93% of patches within 5 years and 97% within 10 years. Our approach achieves \textbf{PICP=92.6%}, the best calibration among all compared methods, in a single forward pass, outperforming MC Dropout (PICP=88.2%, 50 passes) and Deep Ensembles (PICP=79.7%, 5 models) at 5×5\times lower inference cost. Uncertainty decomposition shows aleatoric uncertainty is a strong predictor of dating error (Spearman ρ=0.729ρ=0.729), and a selective prediction about the most certain 20% of patches can provide \textbf{0.5 years MAE}. We show that predicted uncertainty increases as image degradation worsens, spatial decomposition maps explain which script regions cause aleatoric uncertainty, and page-level aggregation reduces MAE to 4.5 years with ρ=0.905ρ=0.905 between uncertainty and page-level error.
Ranjith Chodavarapu
May 7, 2026cs.AI

Towards Annotation-Free Validation of MLLMs: A Vision-Language Logical Consistency Metric

Dominant accuracy evaluation might reward unwarranted guessing of Large Language Models, and it might not be applicable to novel tasks for model validation without ground-truth (gt) annotation. Based on basic logic principle, we propose a novel framework to evaluate the vision-language logical consistency of MLLMs on both sufficient and necessary cause-effect relations. We define Vision-Language Logical Consistency Metric (VL-LCM) on traditional MC-VQA tests, and recent NaturalBench tests without the need for gt annotation. Through systematic experiments on representative VL benchmark MMMU and recent VL challenges like NaturalBench, we evaluated 11 recent open-source MLLMs from 4 frontier families. Our findings reveal that, despite significant progress of recent MLLMs on accuracy, logical consistency lags behind significantly. Extensive evaluations on the correlations of VL-LCM with metrics on gt, the reliability of LCM, and the relation of VL-LCM with response distribution justify the validity and applicability of VL-LCM even without gt annotation. Our findings suggest that, beyond accuracy, logical consistency could be employed for both accuracy and reliability. VL-LCM can also be employed for MLLM selection, validation, and reliable answer justification in novel tasks without gt annotation.
Ying Gu, Mei Chee Leong, Hui Li Tan +3
May 6, 2026cs.CV

egenioussBench: A New Dataset for Geospatial Visual Localisation

We present egenioussBench, a visual localisation benchmark built on geospatial reference data: a city-scale airborne 3D mesh and a CityGML LoD2 model. This pairing reflects deployable mapping assets and supports true scalability beyond traditional SfM-based approaches. The query data comprise smartphone images with centimetre-accurate, map-independent ground truth obtained via PPK and GCP/CP-aided adjustment. From 2,709 images, we derive a non-co-visible subset by estimating the full co-visibility matrix from rendered depth and selecting a maximum independent set; the released data include a test split of 42 non-co-visible images with withheld ground truth and a validation split of 412 sequential images with poses, e.g. for training of pose regressors and self-validation. The benchmark features a public leaderboard evaluated with binning metrics at multiple pose-error thresholds alongside global statistics (median, RMSE, outlier ratio), ensuring fair, like-for-like comparison across mesh- and LoD2-based methods. Together, these design choices expose realistic cross-view and cross-domain challenges while providing a rigorous, scalable path for advancing large-scale visual localisation. We make the evaluation code and data availeable at https://github.com/fratopa/egenioussBench and https://www.egeniouss.eu/
Phillipp Fanta-Jende, Francesco Vultaggio, Alexander Kern +2
May 6, 2026cs.CV

RemoteZero: Geospatial Reasoning with Zero Human Annotations

Geospatial reasoning requires models to resolve complex spatial semantics and user intent into precise target locations for Earth observation. Recent progress has liberated the reasoning path from manual curation, allowing models to generate their own inference chains. Yet a final dependency remains: they are still supervised by human-annotated ground-truth coordinates. This leaves the reasoning process autonomous, but not its spatial endpoint, and prevents true self-evolution on abundant unlabeled remote sensing data. To break this bottleneck, we introduce RemoteZero, a box-supervision-free framework for geospatial reasoning. RemoteZero is motivated by a simple asymmetry: an MLLM is typically better at verifying whether a region satisfies a query than at directly generating precise coordinates. Leveraging this stronger discriminative ability, RemoteZero replaces geometric supervision with intrinsic semantic verification and enables GRPO training without box annotations. The resulting framework further supports iterative self-evolution, allowing the model to improve from unlabeled remote sensing imagery through its own verification signal. Experiments show that RemoteZero achieves competitive performance against strong supervised methods, demonstrating the potential of self-verifying training for geospatial reasoning localization.
Liang Yao, Fan Liu, Shengxiang Xu +4
May 4, 2026cs.RO

AnchorD: Metric Grounding of Monocular Depth Using Factor Graphs

Dense and accurate depth estimation is essential for robotic manipulation, grasping, and navigation, yet currently available depth sensors are prone to errors on transparent, specular, and general non-Lambertian surfaces. To mitigate these errors, large-scale monocular depth estimation approaches provide strong structural priors, but their predictions can be potentially skewed or mis-scaled in metric units, limiting their direct use in robotics. Thus, in this work, we propose a training-free depth grounding framework that anchors monocular depth estimation priors from a depth foundation model in raw sensor depth through factor graph optimization. Our method performs a patch-wise affine alignment, locally grounding monocular predictions in metric real-world depth while preserving fine-grained geometric structure and discontinuities. To facilitate evaluation in challenging real-world conditions, we introduce a benchmark dataset with dense scene-wide ground truth depth in the presence of non-Lambertian objects. Ground truth is obtained via matte reflection spray and multi-camera fusion, overcoming the reliance on object-only CAD-based annotations used in prior datasets. Extensive evaluations across diverse sensors and domains demonstrate consistent improvements in depth performance without any (re-)training. We make our implementation publicly available at https://anchord.cs.uni-freiburg.de.
Simon Dorer, Martin Büchner, Nick Heppert +1
Apr 30, 2026cs.AI

Auditing Frontier Vision-Language Models for Trustworthy Medical VQA: Grounding Failures, Format Collapse, and Domain Adaptation

Deploying vision-language models (VLMs) in clinical settings demands auditable behavior under realistic failure conditions, yet the failure landscape of frontier VLMs on specialized medical inputs is poorly characterized. We audit five recent frontier and grounding-aware VLMs (Gemini2.5Pro, GPT-5, o3, GLM-4.5V, Qwen2.5VL) on Medical VQA along two trust-relevant axes. Perception: all models localize anatomical and pathological targets poorly -- the best model reaches only 0.23 mean IoU and 19.1% Acc@0.5 -- and exhibit clinically dangerous laterality confusion. Pipeline integration: a self-grounding pipeline, where the same model localizes then answers, degrades VQA accuracy for every model -- driven by both inaccurate localization and format-compliance failures under the two-step prompt (parse failure rises to 70%--99% for Gemini and GPT-5 on VQA-RAD). Replacing predicted boxes with ground-truth annotations recovers and improves VQA accuracy, consistent with the failure residing in the perception module rather than in the decomposition itself. These observational findings identify grounding quality as a primary trustworthiness bottleneck in our SLAKE bounding-box setting. As a complementary fine-tuning follow-up, supervised fine-tuning of Qwen2.5VL on combined Med-VQA training data attains the highest reported SLAKE open-ended recall (85.5%) among comparable methods, suggesting that the VQA-level gap is tractable with domain adaptation; whether this also closes the perception/trustworthiness bottleneck is left to future work.
Xupeng Chen, Binbin Shi, Chenqian Le +5
Apr 28, 2026cs.AI

HotComment: A Benchmark for Evaluating Popularity of Online Comments

Online comments play a crucial role in shaping public sentiment and opinion dynamics on social media. However, evaluating their popularity remains challenging, not only because it depends on linguistic quality, originality, and emotional resonance, but also because stylistic preferences vary widely across platforms and user groups, causing the same comment to resonate differently in different communities. In this work, we present HotComment, a multimodal benchmark integrating video and text modalities that comprehensively quantifies popularity from three enhanced aspects: (1) Content Quality, which evaluates semantic similarity with ground-truth human comments and extends quality assessment through four interpretable dimensions; (2) Popularity Prediction, based on trends from models trained on real-world interaction data; and (3) User Behavior Simulation, which models the distribution of platform users and approximates \textbf{engagement scores} through an agent-based framework. Furthermore, we propose StyleCmt, inspired by social ripple effects, where multiple stylistic dimensions align to amplify socially resonant expressions and suppress incongruent ones.
Yafeng Wu, Yunyao Zhang, Liliang Ye +4
Apr 23, 2026cs.RO

Robust Localization for Autonomous Vehicles in Highway Scenes

Localization for autonomous vehicles on highways remains under-explored compared to urban roads, and state-of-the-art methods for urban scenes degrade when directly applied to highways. We identify key challenges including environment changes under information homogeneity, heavy occlusion, degraded GNSS signals, and stringent downstream requirements on accuracy and latency. We propose a robust localization system to address highway challenges, which uses a dual-likelihood LiDAR front end that decouples 3D geometric structures and 2D road-texture cues to handle environment changes; a Control-EKF further leverages steering and acceleration commands to reduce lag and improve closed-loop behavior. An automated offline mapping and ground-truth pipeline keep maps fresh at high cadence for optimal localization performance. To catalyze progress, we release a public dataset covering both urban roads and highways while focusing on representative challenging highway clips, totaling 163 km; benchmarking is standardized using product-oriented accuracy metrics and certified ground truth. Compared to Apollo and Autoware, our system performs similarly on urban roads but shows superior robustness on challenging highway scenarios. The system has been validated by more than one million kilometers of road testing.
Daqian Cheng, Xuchu Ding, Yujia Wu +2
Apr 23, 2026cs.LG

When Quotes Crumble: Detecting Transient Mechanical Liquidity Erosion in Limit Order Books

We study the detection of transient liquidity erosion ("crumbling quotes") in electronic limit order books, where observable quote deterioration may reflect either mechanical liquidity withdrawal or informational repricing. Using the ABIDES agent-based simulator, we construct a multi-agent environment in which crumbling emerges from stochastic regime switches in a market maker, providing time-resolved ground truth unavailable in real market data. We develop a detection pipeline that identifies mechanically driven quote erosion using order book features, and train a neural model to produce calibrated crumbling probabilities. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework reliably identifies crumbling events against agent-level ground truth, with the neural model achieving +36% AUC improvement over rule-based baselines and robust performance across normal, high-volatility, bull, and bear market conditions. Ablation studies on temporal features and varying the dependence structure of the ground-truth mechanism confirm that the framework generalizes across both independent and autocorrelated liquidity withdrawal dynamics.
Haohan Xu, Jason Bohne, Pawel Polak +5
Apr 23, 2026cs.CV

SyMTRS: Benchmark Multi-Task Synthetic Dataset for Depth, Domain Adaptation and Super-Resolution in Aerial Imagery

Recent advances in deep learning for remote sensing rely heavily on large annotated datasets, yet acquiring high-quality ground truth for geometric, radiometric, and multi-domain tasks remains costly and often infeasible. In particular, the lack of accurate depth annotations, controlled illumination variations, and multi-scale paired imagery limits progress in monocular depth estimation, domain adaptation, and super-resolution for aerial scenes. We present SyMTRS, a large-scale synthetic dataset generated using a high-fidelity urban simulation pipeline. The dataset provides high-resolution RGB aerial imagery (2048 x 2048), pixel-perfect depth maps, night-time counterparts for domain adaptation, and aligned low-resolution variants for super-resolution at x2, x4, and x8 scales. Unlike existing remote sensing datasets that focus on a single task or modality, SyMTRS is designed as a unified multi-task benchmark enabling joint research in geometric understanding, cross-domain robustness, and resolution enhancement. We describe the dataset generation process, its statistical properties, and its positioning relative to existing benchmarks. SyMTRS aims to bridge critical gaps in remote sensing research by enabling controlled experiments with perfect geometric ground truth and consistent multi-domain supervision. The results obtained in this work can be reproduced from this Github repository: https://github.com/safouaneelg/SyMTRS.
Safouane El Ghazouali, Nicola Venturi, Michael Rueegsegger +1
Apr 23, 2026cs.AI

Symbolic Grounding Reveals Representational Bottlenecks in Abstract Visual Reasoning

Vision--language models (VLMs) often fail on abstract visual reasoning benchmarks such as Bongard problems, raising the question of whether the main bottleneck lies in reasoning or representation. We study this on Bongard-LOGO, a synthetic benchmark of abstract concept learning with ground-truth generative programs, by comparing end-to-end VLMs on raw images with large language models (LLMs) given symbolic inputs derived from those images. Using symbolic inputs as a diagnostic probe rather than a practical multimodal architecture, our \emph{Componential--Grammatical (C--G)} paradigm reformulates Bongard-LOGO as a symbolic reasoning task based on LOGO-style action programs or structured descriptions. LLMs achieve large and consistent gains, reaching mid--90s accuracy on Free-form problems, while a strong visual baseline remains near chance under matched task definitions. Ablations on input format, explicit concept prompts, and minimal visual grounding show that these factors matter much less than the shift from pixels to symbolic structure. These results identify representation as a key bottleneck in abstract visual reasoning and show how symbolic input can serve as a controlled diagnostic upper bound.
Mohit Vaishnav, Tanel Tammet
Apr 20, 2026stat.ML

FUSE: Ensembling Verifiers with Zero Labeled Data

Verification of model outputs is rapidly emerging as a key primitive for both training and real-world deployment of large language models (LLMs). In practice, this often involves using imperfect LLM judges and reward models since ground truth acquisition can be time-consuming and expensive. We introduce Fully Unsupervised Score Ensembling (FUSE), a method for improving verification quality by ensembling verifiers without access to ground truth correctness labels. The key idea behind FUSE is to control conditional dependencies between verifiers in a manner that improves the unsupervised performance of a class of spectral algorithms from the ensembling literature. Despite requiring zero ground truth labels, FUSE typically matches or improves upon semi-supervised alternatives in test-time scaling experiments with diverse sets of generator models, verifiers, and benchmarks. In particular, we validate our method on both conventional academic benchmarks such as GPQA Diamond and on frontier, unsaturated benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam and IMO Shortlist questions.
Joonhyuk Lee, Virginia Ma, Sarah Zhao +4
Apr 18, 2026astro-ph.IM

AstroSURE: Learning to Remove Noise from Astronomical Images Without Ground Truth Data

In astronomical imaging, the low photon count of exposures necessitates extensive post-processing steps, including contamination removal and denoising. This paper evaluates deep-learning denoising methods that can be trained without clean ground-truth images and assesses their utility for detection11 oriented analysis of astronomical data. We adapt and compare Noise2Noise, Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator, and blind-spot-based methods using synthetic data and real observations from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). Performance is evaluated using object-detection metrics, including correct detection rate and false alarm rate, together with image-based metrics and pixel-distribution diagnostics. The results show that these methods can improve faint-source detectability relative to the original noisy images, with encouraging gains on HST data after domain-consistent initialization, while transfer to CFHT data is more limited, highlighting the importance of instrument/domain similarity for unsupervised adaptation.
Omid Vaheb, Sebastien Fabbro, Stark Draper
Apr 17, 2026cs.MA

Veritas-RPM: Provenance-Guided Multi-Agent False Positive Suppression for Remote Patient Monitoring

We present Veritas-RPM, a provenance-guided multi-agent architecture comprising five processing layers: VeritasAgent (ground-truth assembly), SentinelLayer (anomaly detection), DirectorAgent (specialist routing), six domain Specialist Agents, and MetaSentinelAgent (conflict resolution and final decision). We construct a 98-case synthetic taxonomy of false-positive scenarios derived from documented RPM patterns. Synthetic patient epochs (n = 530) were generated directly from taxonomy parameters and processed through the pipeline. Ground-truth labels are known for all cases. Performance is reported as True Suppression Rate (TSR), False Escalation Rate (FER), and Indeterminate Rate (INDR).
Aswini Misro, Vikash Sharma, Shreyank N Gowda
Apr 16, 2026cs.CV

TokenLight: Precise Lighting Control in Images using Attribute Tokens

This paper presents a method for image relighting that enables precise and continuous control over multiple illumination attributes in a photograph. We formulate relighting as a conditional image generation task and introduce attribute tokens to encode distinct lighting factors such as intensity, color, ambient illumination, diffuse level, and 3D light positions. The model is trained on a large-scale synthetic dataset with ground-truth lighting annotations, supplemented by a small set of real captures to enhance realism and generalization. We validate our approach across a variety of relighting tasks, including controlling in-scene lighting fixtures and editing environment illumination using virtual light sources, on synthetic and real images. Our method achieves state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative performance compared to prior work. Remarkably, without explicit inverse rendering supervision, the model exhibits an inherent understanding of how light interacts with scene geometry, occlusion, and materials, yielding convincing lighting effects even in traditionally challenging scenarios such as placing lights within objects or relighting transparent materials plausibly. Project page: vrroom.github.io/tokenlight/
Sumit Chaturvedi, Yannick Hold-Geoffroy, Mengwei Ren +5
Apr 14, 2026physics.comp-ph

Grounded autonomous scrutiny at scale: emergent critique from reproduction of published computational physics papers

Autonomous LLM agents now produce complete research artifacts in machine-learning sandboxes, but real computational physics is harder: experiments are first-principles calculations against re-runnable physical ground truth, and meaningful new work almost always builds on a key existing paper. We ask whether such an agent can perform grounded scrutiny of published computational physics - reading a paper, reproducing it from scratch, and surfacing methodological concerns from execution. We deploy a single Claude Opus 4.6 configuration at two complementary scopes. At scale, across 111 open-access Quantum ESPRESSO papers, an autonomous agent runs the read-plan-compute-compare loop and, although never asked to critique, raises substantive methodological concerns on ~42% of papers; 85 of 88 of these critiques (96.6%) surface only after the agent has actually run a calculation, with a reading-only ceiling of 1.8%. Critique emerges from reproduction, not from reading. In depth, on one Nature Communications paper on multiscale device simulation of a 2D-material MOSFET, a fresh agent inheriting a verified reproduction pipeline autonomously produces a 14-concern physics inventory and a complete, submission-form six-page Comment that revises the paper's L_G = 5 nm headline. Two of its L_G = 5 nm headline-challenging attacks - a source-degeneration contact-resistance bound and a Sb-doping degradation ratio - are absent from the published 21-reviewer peer review.
Haonan Huang
Apr 12, 2026cs.CV

GTASA: Ground Truth Annotations for Spatiotemporal Analysis, Evaluation and Training of Video Models

Game engines hold what video models struggle to learn: a complete, explicit world state behind every frame. We turn one into a data instrument. GEST-Engine, our production-grade open-source system, deterministically executes Graphs of Events in Space and Time (GESTs), whether procedurally generated or derived from text, into videos of synchronized multi-actor scenarios, recording ground truth as it renders: 3D entity and camera state, pairwise spatial relations, event-to-frame mappings, instance segmentation, and long descriptions, at zero marginal annotation cost. With it we release GTASA, a 938-video sample of what the system can generate at arbitrary scale, carrying, to our knowledge, the densest spatial-relation coverage of any video dataset: a complete entity-pair relation graph at every frame, ~84x denser than the state of the art, frame-for-frame. We validate GTASA both qualitatively, through human evaluation of physical validity and semantic alignment where frontier neural generators, given the same prompts, largely fail, and quantitatively, with GTASA pretraining improving VLM video captioning. Probing six frozen video encoders across 11 spatio-temporal tasks enabled by GTASA's exact 3D ground truth, a previously untestable inter-entity relational probe of frozen video features, reveals that who-is-near-whom barely rises above chance for all of them. We release the engine, the corpus, and the benchmark, making this gap a measurable, trainable target.
Nicolae Cudlenco, Mihai Masala, Marius Leordeanu