Interpretable Machine Learning

Mobile sensing enables longitudinal monitoring of behavioral and physiological patterns in everyday settings. However, accurate prediction remains challenging in small-cohort health-sensing studies, where task-specific outcome supervision is limited relative to heterogeneous sensing data. Interpretability is also important, as model outputs should reflect meaningful behavioral and physiological patterns rather than predictive scores alone. We develop a Concept-Integrated Transformer (CIT) with LLM-guided concept supervision for explainable prediction from mobile sensing data. CIT uses a pretrained large language model to generate baseline-aware concept abnormality targets with confidence weights without manual concept annotation. Across two longitudinal datasets, CIT achieves the highest F1 score on AFFECT (0.756) and ties for the highest on a PHQ-9 dataset (0.765). The learned concept scores also reveal interpretable behavioral and physiological patterns; in AFFECT, sleep quantity and quality show the clearest difference between high and low negative affect groups. These findings support LLM-guided concept integration for accurate and interpretable prediction in small-cohort mobile sensing studies.

There is significant uncertainty about whether abstractions like beliefs or desires usefully describe the behavior of large language models (LLMs). In addition to the inherent scientific interest of this question, these latent quantities are often invoked to explain the behavior of LLMs to users or to define and evaluate harmful behaviors which are relative to intent. Nevertheless, we currently lack a means to systematically test whether concepts like "belief" are well-applied to LLMs, and hence whether they are likely to be fruitful ingredients of attempts to align models with human interests. We propose an approach for empirically studying such questions, asking whether a single latent variable inferred from the LLMs' outputs -- interpreted as a degree of belief -- allows an observer to make interpretable predictions of how the LLMs' will respond to new prompts. We find that highly capable models are usefully described as holding beliefs and that, generally, the predictability of model outputs based on an inferred latent belief tracks overall trends in model capability. Building on these findings, we provide empirical strategies to study how beliefs in LLMs can be measured, the extent to which LLMs comply with instructed decision rules or payoffs, and how beliefs evolve within individual instances of an LLM over the course of reasoning.

Mixed strategy equilibrium predicts i.i.d play: past actions should not help predict future decisions. Human players, however, systematically depart from this benchmark, and in O'Neill's zero sum card game, these departures can be predicted by black box sequence models such as LSTMs. This paper asks whether that predictive power can be achieved by transparent alternatives that also reveal the behavioural structure behind it. Using 84,060 decisions from 2,802 pairs, the analysis first benchmarks naive and behavioral models against interpretable machine learning and deep learning models, then evaluates the modified EWA specifications of prior work against these benchmarks and uses the LASSO diagnostics to motivate a further nested frequency tracking extension. The results show that repeat or avoid behavior, especially players' management of their own recent action histories, accounts for most of the interpretable and strategically exploitable signal, while frequency tracking adds little out of sample.

Traffic congestion prediction is essential for congestion mitigation, but the COVID-19 pandemic and related control measures altered travel behavior and increased prediction complexity. This study predicts congestion in Alameda County, California, during pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown periods. Weather, seasonality, and COVID-19 variables are incorporated, and Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation is used to select important features and reduce overfitting. Support vector regression, multiple linear regression, recurrent neural networks, and long short-term memory networks are trained and optimized. Because LSTM is more sensitive to hyperparameter settings, an adaptive parameter selection approach is used, while SVR and RNN are manually tuned. Performance is evaluated using Normalized Root Mean Square Error. Bidirectional LSTM consistently performs best across all periods because it captures temporal dependence in both directions. Integrated Gradients is used to interpret Bi-LSTM predictions, and SHapley Additive exPlanations is applied to SVR. New COVID-19 cases have a mainly negative effect on congestion during lockdown and post-lockdown, likely due to greater risk awareness, voluntary travel reduction, and compliance with mobility restrictions. In the post-pandemic period, higher hospitalization reduces travel and congestion, while higher fuel prices do not prevent a shift toward private vehicles and therefore increase congestion.

This paper presents an interpretable machine-learning framework for predicting the splitting strength (ST) of asphalt concrete and supporting data-driven mixture design. A database consisting of 296 samples was established, and 14 input variables related to asphalt properties, aggregate gradation, and fiber characteristics were selected for modeling. Six machine-learning models, namely TabPFN, ANN, SVR, RF, XGBoost, and LightGBM, were developed and compared. Hyperparameter optimization was performed for five models using NSGA-II, while TabPFN was directly applied with its default configuration. The results show that all six models achieved satisfactory predictive capability, whereas TabPFN delivered the best overall performance on the testing set, with the lowest RMSE of 0.28, MAE of 0.21, MAPE of 18.01%, MAD of 0.14, the highest R^2 of 0.88, and the highest composite score of 0.91. SHAP analysis further revealed that nine dominant variables accounted for 92.0% of the total average contribution, among which Ag9.5, FT, Ag4.75, AC, and Du were the most influential. In addition, favorable parameter ranges for improving ST were quantified, such as Ag9.5 < 66.8%, Ag4.75 < 45.0%, AC < 5.4 wt.%, AV < 3.6%, and Du > 134.7 cm. Finally, a GUI platform integrating prediction and SHAP-based explanation was developed to improve the accessibility and practical applicability of the proposed framework.

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are widely used for clinical risk prediction using machine learning. International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes provide structured information about patient diagnoses, but representing them effectively remains challenging. Existing approaches often face a trade-off between predictive performance and interpretability: grouping-based representations are interpretable but may lose information, while embedding-based representations achieve strong predictive performance but are difficult to interpret. We propose Explainable Representation of Multiple ICD Codes (xMICD), a method for constructing low-dimensional patient representations from sets of ICD codes. xMICD combines clinically meaningful diagnostic groupings with similarity in a pre-trained ICD embedding space. Instead of using binary group membership, the method assigns codes to groups via similarity-based relative assignments, yielding features that reflect how closely a patient's diagnoses align with each clinical group. Experiments on large-scale EHR datasets demonstrate that xMICD achieves predictive performance comparable to embedding-based representations such as ICD2Vec across multiple clinical prediction tasks. At the same time, the resulting features remain clinically interpretable because each dimension corresponds to a recognizable diagnostic group. xMICD therefore provides a practical way to integrate embedding-based semantic relationships into interpretable clinical feature spaces for machine learning models.

Optimal decision trees (ODTs) are compact, interpretable machine learning models that globally optimize a given objective, but their scalability remains challenging. While recent work has proposed a variety of search strategies to improve scalability, the precise contribution of each strategy remains unclear. To address this gap, we introduce a general algorithmic framework for ODTs that instantiates previously used search strategies and enables the definition of new ones. This provides a common lens through which to understand and compare different strategies, which we use to empirically investigate the effect of 18 search strategies. Compared to the state of the art, the best strategy in our evaluation achieves significantly better anytime performance for classification, and improves runtime by more than an order of magnitude for regression.

As decision-making processes grow more complex, machine learning tools have become essential for tackling business and societal challenges. However, many existing methods rely on decision-making procedures that are difficult to interpret. Since humans naturally make decisions by comparing new cases with a few representative examples, we aim to design an approach that selects such pivots to construct an interpretable predictive model. Inspired by decision trees, we propose a hierarchical, interpretable-by-design pivot selection model based on the similarity between pivots and input instances. Our method functions both as a pivot selection technique and a standalone predictive model. Extending beyond single pivots, we incorporate pairs of pivots that are used by proximity and oblique trees, as well as ensembles, which enhance the versatility and effectiveness of our proposal. Additionally, our approach is data modality-agnostic, leveraging pre-trained networks for data transformation. Experiments across diverse datasets, including tabular data, text, images, and time series, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, outperforming alternative instance selection strategies and achieving competitive results against state-of-the-art interpretable models while maintaining a minimal number of pivots.

Machine learning models achieve high predictive accuracy in regression tasks, but their deployment in safety-critical and regulated domains requires interpretability. While fuzzy rule-based systems offer transparent, linguistically explicit interpretable models, Mamdani-style fuzzy regression remains underrepresented in modern machine learning software libraries. This paper presents an interpretable regression extension for the Ex-Fuzzy library, enabling Mamdani fuzzy inference with scalar consequents learned directly from data. For this, a target-aware partition initialisation strategy based on Fuzzy C-Means clustering is introduced, in which linguistic variables are derived from an augmented input-output space to emphasise output-relevant regions of the feature space. The proposed extension is evaluated on ten regression datasets from the KEEL repository, comparing Gaussian and trapezoidal partition strategies against standard baselines including linear regression, multilayer perceptron, and random forests. Experimental results show that Gaussian partitions consistently outperform uniform trapezoidal partitions, achieving a mean coefficient of determination of approximately 0.86 while producing compact rule bases of 10-15 human-readable rules. The proposed implementation provides a transparent and competitive alternative to black-box regression models, supporting practical interpretability with competitive predictive performance.

Discourse relations provide document structure, critical to language understanding and enabling language model performance and ethicality. In this work, we investigate how instruction-tuned Transformer models (LLaMA and Mistral) encode discourse relations in English, with a particular focus on the contrasting relations of causation and antithesis. Framing the task as a next-token prediction task and applying a suite of interpretability techniques to test model internals, our findings show that certain early layers make predictive decisions at mid-sequence tokens, while some mid-level layers finalize their decisions closer to the last token. Most of the remaining layers primarily propagate earlier decisions rather than actively influencing them. Additionally, we observe that some layers exhibit a preference for one answer over alternatives, suggesting asymmetric representation of discourse-based reasoning.\footnote{Our code is available at https://github.com/abhidipbhattacharyya/causation_vs_antithesis}

We introduce Retrieval-Augmented Interpretable Learning (RAIL), a probabilistic meta-learning framework for zero-shot generation of task-specific interpretable models that synthesizes coefficient-space structure from natural-language task descriptions and a memory of previously learned task-specific predictors. RAIL retrieves related source tasks, transfers structure through coefficient space, and generates a new predictor in the original diagnostic-feature space, enabling zero-shot and few-shot clinical procedure prediction with feature-level explanations. Its probabilistic formulation provides uncertainty over retrieval, model coefficients, and predictions, supporting reliability-aware deployment: uncertain predictions or unstable explanations can be flagged for additional clinical review rather than treated as automatic decisions. This makes RAIL particularly suited for healthcare settings, where prediction tasks are highly long-tailed, new clinical targets arise frequently, and models must remain inspectable, uncertainty-aware, and compatible with human oversight. Across long-tailed clinical procedure prediction tasks, RAIL maintains reliable performance across data-availability regimes: it achieves 73.4% accuracy in the held-out zero-shot settings, where no supervised task-specific model can be trained, and remains near 73.2% accuracy in the extreme few-shot regime with only 2-4 examples, where supervised task-specific models perform close to chance. RAIL further benefits from clinically informed task representations and yields retrieval, uncertainty, and coefficient-level diagnostics that make model behavior more transparent. These results suggest a path toward scalable clinical prediction systems that can adapt to new tasks while preserving interpretability and reliability.

Air pollution and climate-related stressors are increasingly important concerns for respiratory health, especially in settings with unequal environmental exposure and healthcare capacity. This study evaluates an interpretable machine learning framework for predicting respiratory disease rates and air-quality status using structured country-level weekly data. Two supervised learning tasks were considered: regression of respiratory disease rate per 100,000 population and binary classification of air-quality status. Nine regression models and nine classification models were compared using nested cross-validation. Model interpretation was conducted using SHAP values, and subgroup analysis was performed across income levels and geographic regions. The results showed that PM2.5 concentration was the dominant predictor of respiratory disease rate, with linear and regularized linear models achieving the strongest regression performance. For air-quality classification, models achieved high balanced accuracy when PM2.5 was included, but performance decreased substantially when PM2.5 was removed, indicating strong dependence on pollutant-related information. SHAP analysis showed that, without PM2.5, socioeconomic and meteorological variables such as GDP per capita, precipitation, and healthcare access became more influential. Subgroup analysis showed similar aggregate regression error across income groups, but PM2.5 contributed more strongly to predictions in lower-middle-income countries. These results show that model accuracy alone is not sufficient for climate-health prediction. Interpretable models can help identify dominant pollution-related signals, test whether results depend on key pollutant variables, and show whether prediction patterns differ across socioeconomic groups.

AI governance increasingly requires judgments about whether an AI system remains adequately trustworthy over time, whether observed changes are tolerable, and how such judgments should be documented in a transparent and contestable way. Yet existing work on AI trustworthiness remains either too high-level to support lifecycle monitoring and reassessment or too narrowly metric-driven to connect with governance needs. We therefore propose a lightweight methodology for auditable trustworthiness levels in AI governance. The methodology has two components: a formal framework for representing and learning trustworthiness levels, and a lightweight AI lifecycle governance procedure for documenting, monitoring, and reassessing them over time. The formal framework models governance-relative trustworthiness through a context-sensitive protocol of measurable dimensions and learns trustworthiness levels as interpretable rules over trustworthiness profiles. Using decision trees as an interpretable proof-of-concept model class, the methodology yields explicit trustworthiness plateaus, readable level transitions, and two simple lifecycle diagnostics: boundary margins and profile drift. The governance procedure embeds these formal objects in a conformity-oriented workflow for design-time labeling, post-deployment monitoring, reassessment, and reporting. It also assigns human responsibilities and control gates for protocol design, validation, monitoring, and reassessment. We illustrate the methodology on synthetic AI lifecycle traces involving degradation, shocks, updates, heterogeneous monitoring cadences, and system comparison. Our methodology does not replace legal or other expert judgment: it supports conformity documentation and lifecycle monitoring by providing an evidential basis for documenting and tracking AI governance-relevant changes over time.

Recent foundation models (FMs) for zero-shot reconstruction of dynamical systems (DS) achieve strong out-of-domain generalization but provide little insight into the mechanisms that underlie their forecasts. Such an understanding could help to strip down overladen FM architectures to their bare essence and expose the minimal requirements for in-context learning in the DS domain. Toward this goal, here we iteratively reduce a recent powerful SOTA model for DS reconstruction, DynaMix (Hemmer & Durstewitz, 2025), to a minimal interpretable two-parameter form, which we call DynaBase. DynaBase produces forecasts through a linear blend of the current latent state and the nearest in-context neighbor and its temporal successor. Surprisingly, despite its extreme simplicity, DynaBase produces highly competitive zero-shot DS reconstructions across chaotic and cyclic systems, with a negligible parameter load, many orders of magnitude below that of other FMs. Even more, this extreme simplicity permits direct model optimization on DS reconstruction measures, as well as closed-form one-step analytical solutions on prediction MSE. Theoretical and empirical analysis of DynaBase further leads to a 1-parameter family of maps, with the context-parroting algorithm of (Zhang & Gilpin, 2026) recovered at one end, and chaotic (divergent but bounded) behavior at the other. We further show how different training strategies lead to models either optimal for short-term prediction or for DS reconstruction. Thus, DynaBase not only exposes the minimal mechanisms required for producing zero-shot DS reconstruction, but also reconciles within an accessible mathematical frame divergent observations in the literature.

Recent work has shown that well-optimized individual decision trees can match complex black box models in some settings, primarily in noisy domains. For the remaining settings, however, complex ensembled compositions of trees often achieve higher accuracy at the cost of interpretability, leaving practitioners with difficult modeling decisions along an accuracy-interpretability tradeoff. Ideally, we would like to classify as much of the data as possible with one or a small number of trees, achieving interpretability for most samples while maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy. We introduce Multistage Defer Trees: a sequence of sparse decision trees that each make predictions for most samples, while deferring a small proportion to the next tree in the sequence or, ultimately, to a black box. We demonstrate that we can train this model class to match the performance of complex tree-based ensembles while routing most samples through only one or a small number of sparse decision trees. We discuss a range of techniques for training these models while maintaining simplicity. Our method expands the accuracy--interpretability frontier in settings where single-tree methods remain insufficient, demonstrating that even when complex models are necessary, they need not be fully opaque.

Earth system infrastructures relying on satellite-based technologies, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) communications, are affected by ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) gradients. Modeling these gradients under physical constraints remains challenging due to their dynamic and transient nature. While existing machine learning (ML) models can predict hourly TEC variations, it remains unclear whether their temporal resolution is sufficient to preserve small-scale TEC irregularities within predicted signals. To address this gap, we introduce an interpretable ML-based model, t-STEP, designed to predict TEC at a 30-second resolution and estimate irregularity signatures from the modeled signals. This high cadence enables the derivation of Rate of TEC changes (ROT) and the ROT Index (ROTI) as diagnostic indicators of ionospheric variability. The model is developed using GPS observations from solar cycle 24 at a station located at 5.49°S, 47.49°W. A multi-metric evaluation framework, including dynamic time warping, is used for robustness assessment, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) provides insight into feature contributions. The 30-second TEC predictions achieve 91% accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.38 TECU during high solar activity (2015). Compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2020), the hourly model improves accuracy by 35%, reduces absolute errors by 57%, and increases prediction skill by 54%. More importantly, the 30-second model captures TEC irregularity dynamics and morphologies during geomagnetic storms of different intensities, outperforming an attention-based Long Short-Term Memory model under the same experimental conditions. This study demonstrates the potential of a single TEC prediction framework for scalable irregularity monitoring without requiring separate models for individual transient events.

Introduction: Objective neuroimaging biomarkers may improve Parkinson's disease motor assessment by capturing brain variation not directly observable from clinical examination. We used interpretable machine learning to predict current motor severity, measured by MDS-UPDRS Part III, from QSM and multiband multi-echo resting-state fMRI-derived ReHo features. Methods: Regional QSM and ReHo features were extracted from 28 participants, including 24 individuals with Parkinson's disease and 4 controls. Thirteen feature-set experiments evaluated imaging-only, clinical-only, imaging-plus-clinical, full, reduced, and multimodal inputs. Support vector regression, Elastic Net, Random Forest, and XGBoost models were trained using nested cross-validation. Performance was assessed using pooled held-out R^2, RMSE, MAE, Pearson correlation, permutation testing, and the proportion of participants predicted within +/-5 MDS-UPDRS Part III points. Results: Imaging-only models carried meaningful predictive signal, whereas the clinical-only model performed weakly. Full fMRI, full QSM, and clinical variables provided the strongest global fit, explaining 45.4% of variance in motor severity. Selected QSM plus clinical variables produced the most clinically close predictions, with 75.0% of participants predicted within +/-5 points and the lowest MAE among top-performing models. SHAP highlighted cerebellar, thalamic, striatal, insular, and motor cortical features. Conclusion: QSM and multiband multi-echo fMRI-derived ReHo capture distinct, interpretable dimensions of Parkinson's disease motor severity. These findings show that structural and functional imaging contribute differently depending on the clinical prediction goal.

While interpretable models such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs) and program synthesis methods enable verification of model decisions, their evaluation is typically limited to simple tasks, leaving complex reasoning on real-world images largely unexplored. We introduce COCOLogic-V2, an object-centric dataset for visual inductive reasoning on real-world images covering a broad subset of first-order logic. By categorizing samples into positive variants, near-boundary (NB), and far-from-boundary (FB) negatives, COCOLogic-V2 enables fine-grained diagnosis of model accountability. Our evaluations show that models tend to separate positive and FB samples well but fail on NB samples, while perceptual noise and large rule-induced search spaces pose additional challenges in few-shot settings. Together, these results highlight that visual inductive reasoning remains an open challenge and COCOLogic-V2 provides a concrete foundation for advancing methods in this direction.

Spatiotemporal systems comprise a collection of spatially distributed yet interdependent entities each generating unique dynamic signals. Highly sophisticated methods have been proposed in recent years delivering state-of-the-art (SOTA) forecasts but few have focused on interpretability. To address this, we propose the Future Decomposition Network (FDN), a novel forecast model capable of (a) providing interpretable predictions through classification (b) revealing latent activity patterns in the target time-series and (c) delivering forecasts competitive with SOTA methods at a fraction of their memory and runtime cost. We conduct comprehensive analyses on FDN for multiple datasets from hydrologic, traffic, and energy systems, demonstrating its improved accuracy and interpretability.

Accurate electricity load forecasting is a crucial prerequisite for stable power system operations. While prevalent deep learning models present competitive performance, they often operate as black boxes and lack interpretability. While the Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) has emerged as a promising alternative because of its learnable activation function design, its direct application to time-series forecasting faces challenges in modeling complex temporal data patterns. Also, simple integration into existing architectures, such as serving as replacement of neural modules, cannot fully leverage KAN's interpretability strengths. To address these gaps, this study develops LoadKAN, a novel hybrid and interpretable framework for load forecasting that synergistically combines a specifically-designed feature-isolated temporal attention mechanism with a KAN module. The attention stage aims to extract temporal dynamics from each input feature independently, such as historical load and human mobility, providing distilled feature representations to the KAN module for interpretable predictions. When evaluated on datasets from three representative U.S. electricity markets, our LoadKAN remains highly competitive when compared to extensively-tuned, state-of-the-art, black-box deep learning benchmarks. More importantly, LoadKAN's interpretability enables a granular analysis of the learned non-linear relationships between six distinct mobility patterns and electricity load. Through KAN-learned activation functions, our quantitative sensitivity analyses on mobility features reveal complex and market-specific dependencies. These findings further demonstrate the ability of our LoadKAN to generate insights often obscured by opaque black-box neural forecasting models.

LLM reasoning transparency is a critical affordance for understanding model decisions, mitigating misuse and misalignment, and debugging surprising model behaviors. However, DiffusionGemma performs a larger fraction of its computation in a continuous latent space; does this make its reasoning less transparent? We study this question by decomposing transparency into two components: variable transparency, whether we understand intermediate snapshots of a model's computational state; and algorithmic transparency, whether we can use these snapshots to reconstruct the process by which the model arrived at its outputs. Naively, DiffusionGemma has poor variable transparency: its opaque serial depth, the amount of serial computation that occurs in between interpretable model states, seems at first 28.6X higher than the corresponding autoregressive Gemma 4 model. However, we show that we can map the information flowing between denoising steps through an interpretable token bottleneck with no decrease in downstream performance. Treating these intermediate states as interpretable reduces the opaque serial depth to just 1.1X that of Gemma 4. Algorithmic transparency is harder for diffusion models than for autoregressive models because all token predictions in the canvas can change at every denoising step, giving the model the power to implement complicated distributed algorithms during the denoising process. To begin bridging this gap, we conduct a suite of interpretability case studies, uncovering initial evidence of novel diffusion-specific phenomena such as non-chronological reasoning, token and sequence smearing, and intermediate-context reasoning. Finally, we test monitorability, a key application of transparency that measures whether model outputs are useful for downstream tasks. We find that DiffusionGemma is similarly monitorable to Gemma 4.

Reliable generalization in conditional latent variable models requires understanding both identifiability and extrapolation: how observed variation across attributes determines latent structure, and how that structure determines distributions at unseen attributes. However, existing identifiability and extrapolation guarantees are largely model-specific, with separate analyses in nonlinear ICA, causal representation learning, perturbation modeling, and related conditional latent variable models. We introduce concept modulation models (CMMs), an attribute-indexed class of conditional generative models with structure $A\to Λ\to C\to X$, where attributes select modulators, modulators induce latent concept laws, and concepts generate observed features. CMMs lift transition-based identifiability to conditional settings by showing that feature agreement on observed attributes induces a latent concept transition constrained by the CMM class. We express these constraints through attribute potentials, log-density ratios between attribute-conditioned concept laws, separating the generic lifting step from model-specific rigidity arguments. The same potentials control extrapolation: agreement at unseen attributes holds exactly when the transported attribute-potential identities extend to those attributes. This yields algebraic extrapolation criteria, identifies the common potential-based proof objects behind several existing identifiability and extrapolation results, and, when combined with the model-specific rigidity arguments in those works, recovers their stated conclusions.

Delirium is common in hospitalized patients and is often missed in routine care. We present a user-centered interactive machine learning (UC-iML) framework for delirium detection support that combines physician-guided feature refinement with interpretable modeling. Using 3,862 labeled admissions from six Toronto hospitals in the General Medicine Inpatient Initiative (GEMINI), we integrate administrative variables, laboratory results, medications, and a radiology-derived text indicator. Physicians guide feature refinement and model evaluation, and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to summarize feature attribution. We evaluate standard supervised classifiers with temporally separated holdout testing and a later-phase validation cohort. Compared with automated and baseline variants, the proposed framework shows better overall discrimination and stronger temporal robustness, while the explanations highlight clinically meaningful signals. These results support UC-iML as a practical human-in-the-loop framework for clinically relevant delirium modeling.

Predictive modeling for clinical decision support requires both strong predictive performance and transparent, auditable, and human-reviewable decision logic. Although deep learning and tree-based ensemble methods can achieve high accuracy, their black-box nature remains a major obstacle to trustworthy clinical deployment. Moreover, clinical prediction often operates under practical constraints, including limited sample sizes, severe class imbalance, and feature evolution arising from changes in diagnostic criteria or clinical documentation practices. We propose Medical Heuristic Learning (MHL), a constrained paradigm for LLM-assisted rule learning. Rather than relying on updates to implicit model weights, MHL integrates statistical probes, medical knowledge probes, initial rule synthesis, and iterative rule optimization to construct an executable rule-based expert system. The resulting rule system is expressed entirely using the native logical and control-flow constructs of a programming language. Valid rule versions are recorded and retained along the search trajectory, making the decision logic explicit, interpretable, and auditable. MHL also supports continual learning by using previously validated rules as a starting point and iteratively revising them in response to updated feature information under data drift or feature evolution. MHL is not tied to any specific programming language. Comprehensive experiments on medical datasets show that MHL achieves predictive performance comparable to that of state-of-the-art methods, performs favorably in small-sample and highly imbalanced settings, and supports the transfer and adaptive revision of validated rules under feature evolution. Overall, these findings suggest that non-gradient-based heuristic systems offer an approach to balancing predictive performance and transparency in clinical decision support.

Concept-based models (CMs), deep neural networks that ground their predictions on representations aligned with human-understandable concepts (e.g., "round", "stripes", etc.), have been shown to learn representations that leak concept-irrelevant information. As the traditional narrative goes, this leakage is undesirable and should be eradicated as it leads to uninterpretable models. In this paper, we posit that this conventional view of leakage in CMs is not only ill-posed, as the evidence of how leakage makes a model less interpretable is often inconclusive, but also bound to lead to impractical CMs under common real-world constraints. Specifically, we argue that in real-world settings where concept incompleteness is the norm, some leakage is often necessary for constructing accurate and intervenable CMs. To this end, we propose that there is such a thing as benign leakage and show that, by optimizing a reframing of the typical CM training objective, CMs can encourage and exploit this form of leakage without sacrificing accuracy or intervenability.

In high-stakes settings such as brand compliance, clinical care, and content moderation, machine learning cannot be deployed as opaque oracles: practitioners inspect the features driving model decisions, and models must leverage the expert documentation governing these domains. In practice, the data arrives as unstructured content, and features extracted from it must be interpretable, discriminative, and aligned with what experts consider important. Existing methods fall short: they target tabular inputs, lack demonstrated expert alignment, and cannot operationalize qualitative criteria such as 'maintain professional tone' into precise features. We present FEST (Feature Engineering with Self-evolving Trees), combining dual-stream feature generation (semantic and deterministic), semantic deduplication, and tree-guided iterative evolution to discover auditable features from raw text and images. FEST leads in 17 of 20 classifier-task combinations across brand classification, content authenticity detection, and stress detection, with a mean gain of 4.2 pp over the strongest baseline across five classifiers. An LLM-as-judge evaluation shows FEST achieves 60-80% coverage of expert-designed brand features at strict semantic-alignment thresholds, corroborated by a human expert study rating features highly on relevance, clarity, and actionability. When seeded with expert guidelines, FEST refines qualitative criteria into operational features, improving accuracy by 6-12 pp on average across brands. To enable systematic evaluation of expert alignment in automated feature engineering, we release BrandGuide, the first dataset pairing expert-designed features with 1M+ assets across 2,683 brands. By grounding feature engineering in expert knowledge, FEST opens a practical pathway for interpretable ML in domains demanding human oversight.

Shapley values are a principled attribution measure widely used in interpretable machine learning, but their exact computation scales exponentially with the number of players, motivating a wide range of approximation methods based on value function evaluations of sampled coalitions. This raises the question of whether approximation accuracy can be improved by adaptively selecting coalitions for evaluation based on previous evaluations. This is particularly relevant in settings where the value function is costly and the number of evaluations is severely limited, such as retraining-based feature importance, data valuation, and hyperparameter importance. For this purpose, we propose ShaplEIG, a Bayesian experimental design approach that approximates the expensive value function using a Gaussian process surrogate and adaptively selects coalitions based on their expected information gain about the Shapley values. By the linearity of the Shapley values in the value function, we show that the expected information gain is available in closed form. Furthermore, we propose an efficient computation scheme that reduces the complexity from exponential to polynomial in the number of players via elementary symmetric polynomials. In extensive experiments across diverse costly applications, our method consistently improves sample efficiency in the low-budget regime over state-of-the-art baselines.

Deep learning has revolutionized medical image analysis, delivering exceptional diagnostic accuracy across diverse applications. Yet, the lack of interpretability in its decision-making hinders clinical adoption, particularly in high-stakes medical contexts where transparency is paramount for trustworthiness. For example, in Placenta Accreta Spectrum (PAS), subtle cues in ultrasound imaging challenge reliable diagnosis, rendering black-box models untrustworthy for accurate scoring. To address this, Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) offer a promising avenue by embedding clinically meaningful intermediate concepts into the diagnosis pipeline, enabling clinicians to scrutinize and refine model outputs. However, conventional CBMs falter in capturing complex inter-concept dependencies and demand costly, expert-driven concept annotations, limiting their scalability. This study introduces a novel semi-supervised CBM framework designed for medical imaging, which leverages dual-level hypergraph learning to model high-order concept dependencies and generate domain-adaptive pseudo-labels. Our approach achieves superior interpretability and performance by integrating a concept-level hypergraph for enhanced reasoning and an image-level hypergraph for robust pseudo-label generation. Experiments on a newly annotated PAS ultrasound dataset and a breast ultrasound public dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed concept label-efficient interpretable framework. Its universality is further validated on the dermoscopic image dataset SkinCon. The code is available at https://github.com/scott-yjyang/HyperCBM.

Advances in machine learning and computational power have unlocked the predictive potential of the human genome, yet biologists now demand that these models also elucidate the underlying biological mechanisms. While interpretable machine learning (IML) techniques have been increasingly applied to bridge this gap, there has been a pervasive reliance on anecdotal validation: the vast majority of research relies on a single IML method and reports only isolated successful instances. Through a benchmarking study on transcription factor binding, we demonstrate the risks of current practices. We show that different IML methods can often (1) yield contradictory explanations for the same predictions, (2) fail to localize known regulatory motifs, and (3) fail to faithfully reflect the model's internal decision process. In light of this, we argue for a validation framework analogous to clinical trials: just as trials require rigorous design and adverse-event reporting, genomic interpretability must move beyond cherry-picked plausibility toward systematic assessment of consistency, faithfulness, and biological validity. To facilitate this, we propose a tiered framework to guide rigorous evaluation and reporting of genomic IML methods.

Interpretable machine learning requires models that are accurate and structurally faithful to the data. Existing explainability methods rely heavily on additive representations (e.g., Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), functional ANOVA), which can suffer from signal cancellation and off-support extrapolation in the presence of strong interactions. We propose Tensor Separation Learning (TSL), a regression model that learns a sum of rank-1 products of univariate per-feature functions via a stagewise greedy procedure with orthogonal refitting. By enforcing separability, TSL avoids the information loss inherent in additive projections caused by marginalizing higher-order interactions. The learned TSL model can be fully reconstructed from first-order partial dependence functions, up to constant factors. This stage-wise correspondence ensures that the resulting visualizations are faithful to the fitted components. We establish approximation-rate guarantees for functions with bounded mixed $p$-th order partial derivatives and demonstrate that TSL competes with black-box models on regression benchmarks.

Human tactile perception of materials relies on complex multisensory touch cues, yet the relationship between low-level tactile signals and perceptual representations remains poorly understood. This knowledge gap hinders the integration of touch in digital environments and the development of robots capable of human-like tactile perception. Here, we present an interpretable computational framework for modeling human material perception and recognition using multisensory touch data. Our framework comprises three interconnected models: Model 1 maps finger-surface interaction features to psychophysical sensory attributes, Model 2 classifies materials based on these perceptual representations, and Model 3 directly classifies materials from tactile features. The results showed that combining information from pressing, static contact, and sliding interactions improves prediction accuracy, and that thermal cues are particularly informative for both perceptual modeling and material classification. These findings highlight the importance of thermal and compliance cues, which remain underrepresented in current robotic fingers and haptic displays. Incorporating such cues may enhance artificial systems' ability to approximate human material perception and guide the design of more perceptually grounded haptic interfaces.

Hybrid interpretable models combine a transparent component with a black-box model by assigning some examples to the former and deferring the rest to the latter. While this design enables flexible tradeoffs between accuracy and interpretability, it also raises a distinct procedural fairness concern: some demographic groups may systematically receive interpretable decisions, while others are disproportionately routed to a black box. We formalize this issue as Interpretability Coverage Disparity (ICD), a demographic-parity-style measure applied to the routing decision of hybrid interpretable models. Using tools from predictive multiplicity, we study ICD across four hybrid interpretable learning methods, three standard fairness benchmark datasets, and multiple sensitive attributes. Our experiments reveal substantial ICD in intermediate transparency regimes, where both the interpretable and black-box components are actively used. We further show that simple coverage-disparity constraints can significantly reduce ICD in exact hybrid learning methods, with marginal impact on accuracy and sparsity. In several settings, ICD mitigation also improves standard algorithmic fairness metrics. These results show that hybrid interpretable models should be audited not only for predictive fairness, but also for how they allocate interpretability across individuals and groups.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have emerged as a cornerstone approach for interpretable machine learning, providing human-understandable intermediate representations through explicit concept activations. However, this interpretability fundamentally introduces a critical, previously unexplored attack surface: the concept bottleneck layer itself. We present a comprehensive, systematic study of concept-level adversarial vulnerabilities in CBMs, revealing that targeted, minimal perturbations operating on input pixels can induce catastrophic misclassification by manipulating semantic representations. We develop a rigorous theoretical framework to quantify concept-space robustness, establishing novel metrics that expose the vulnerability landscape of these architectures. Our extensive analysis on the CUB-200-2011 dataset demonstrates that standard CBMs exhibit severe susceptibility to concept-level manipulation. To address this critical weakness, we introduce SPECTRA (Semantic Perturbation-based Concept Training for Robustness against Attacks), a principled stability regularization defense. SPECTRA effectively hardens the semantic representation space, increasing the minimal perturbation norm required for a successful attack from 0.46 to over 4,200, rendering targeted concept manipulation computationally prohibitive. Furthermore, SPECTRA preserves baseline classification accuracy to within 2.2%. By establishing concept-level attacks as a fundamentally distinct threat model, this work opens a new research frontier at the intersection of interpretable machine learning and adversarial robustness.

We present DreamerNLplus, a hybrid framework for modeling mental health dynamics from social media timelines in the CLPsych 2026 shared task. Our system addresses three tasks: psychological state modeling, temporal change detection, and sequence-level summarization. For Task 1, we combine LLM-based data augmentation, DeBERTa classification, and Random Forest regression for structured state prediction. For Task 2, we use few-shot prompting with a locally deployed Llama 3.1 model to detect Switch and Escalation events using short-term temporal context. For Task 3.1, we explore both a deterministic rule-based summarization pipeline and a few-shot LLM-based approach, ranking \textbf{2nd} officially. Our RAG-based method achieves strong performance in Task 3.2, ranking \textbf{1st} for Improvement and \textbf{3rd} for Deterioration, demonstrating its ability to capture recurrent psychological change patterns across timelines. Our analysis reveals key challenges, including the mismatch between classification and regression performance, the difficulty of modeling temporal transitions, and the disagreement between semantic and similarity-based evaluation metrics. These findings highlight the complexity of modeling mental health dynamics and motivate future work on unified evaluation frameworks. We share our code and prompts at https://github.com/4dpicture/CLPsych2026

Discovering shapelets -- i.e., discriminative temporal patterns within time series -- has been widely studied to address the inherent complexity of time-series classification (TSC) and to make model decision-making processes more transparent. However, existing methods primarily focus on population-level shapelets optimized across the entire dataset, which leads to two fundamental limitations: (i) population-level patterns often misalign with instance-specific features, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially misleading interpretations, and (ii) most methods treat shapelets as independent entities, overlooking important temporal dependencies and interactions among multiple patterns. To address these limitations, we propose INSHAPE, an interpretable TSC framework that discovers variable-length, discriminative temporal patterns specific to each time series. INSHAPE identifies these patterns as non-overlapping segments and models their temporal dependencies, thereby providing clear instance-level interpretations while achieving strong predictive performance. Furthermore, INSHAPE bridges local and global interpretability through a bottom-up approach, aggregating instance-level shapelets into prototypical (population-level) shapelets. Extensive experiments on 128 UCR and 30 UEA benchmark datasets show that INSHAPE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art shapelet-based methods while providing more intuitive and interpretable insights.

Self-initiated attention shifts play a critical role in voluntary behavior but are difficult to study due to the absence of explicit temporal markers. While previous studies have examined their neural correlates, it remains unclear how multi-dimensional electroencephalography (EEG) features contribute to their characterization within an interpretable computational framework. In this study, we build on an experimental paradigm developed in our previous work, which enables controlled comparison between task-constrained self-initiated shifts and externally instructed shifts under identical visual stimulation. Within this setting, we investigate whether preparatory EEG activity can distinguish these two types of attention shifts. We adopt a machine learning-based approach and conduct two complementary analyses: (1) a performance-oriented assessment of frequency-specific topographic patterns, and (2) a model-based feature attribution analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). These analyses provide a structured view of how spectral features across regions of interest contribute to model behavior. Our results demonstrate reliable within-subject classification performance, indicating that preparatory EEG activity contains subject-specific discriminative information within this paradigm. The analysis shows that higher-frequency bands and frontal regions contribute strongly to model decisions, although such contributions should be interpreted cautiously due to the potential influence of non-neural artifacts in high-frequency EEG signals. Overall, this work highlights the value of interpretable machine learning for analyzing subject-specific EEG signal patterns in a controlled experimental setting, with potential applications in personalized and asynchronous brain-machine interface systems.

Background: Pregnancy-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (P-TMA) is rare but life-threatening. Early risk prediction before overt clinical presentation remains challenging, as the associated laboratory abnormalities are subtle, multidimensional, and frequently masked by common physiological changes such as gestational thrombocytopenia and pregnancy-related proteinuria, thus overlapping heavily with benign obstetric and renal conditions. This complexity is poorly captured by univariate or rule-based approaches; however, it is addressable by machine learning, which can extract latent, time-dependent risk signatures from longitudinal clinical tests. Methods: This retrospective study included 300 pregnancies comprising 142 P-TMA cases and 158 controls. After exclusion of identifiers and non-informative variables, 146 longitudinal laboratory predictors were retained. Participants were divided into a training cohort (80%) and a held-out test cohort (20%) using stratified sampling. Five algorithms were evaluated: logistic regression, support vector machine with radial basis function kernel, random forest, extra trees, and gradient boosting. The final model was selected by mean cross-validated AUROC, refitted on the full training cohort, and evaluated once in the held-out test cohort. Interpretability analyses examined global feature importance and distributional patterns of leading predictors. Results: Gradient boosting was prespecified by cross-validation in the training cohort. The model achieved an AUROC of 0.872 (95% CI: 0.769-0.952) and an AUPRC of 0.883 (95% CI: 0.780-0.959) in a held-out test cohort, with sensitivity of 0.750 and specificity of 0.812. Conclusions: Longitudinal clinical laboratory tests obtained during routine care contained informative and clinically plausible signals for P-TMA risk. Notably, cystatin C at week 6 showed promise as an early monitoring indicator.

Concept-bottleneck models (CBMs) are neural classifiers that compute predictions from high-level concepts extracted from the input. CBMs ensure stakeholders can understand the concepts -- and the predictions they entail -- by learning these from concept-level annotations, which are however seldom available. Recent CBM architectures work around this issue by obtaining annotations from Vision-Language Models (VLMs). While greatly broadening applicability, doing so can yield lower quality concepts and therefore less interpretable models. We strike for a middle ground by introducing Vision-plus-Human-guided CBM (VH-CBM), a hybrid approach that exploits both VLMs and a small amount of dense annotations. VH-CBM employs a Gaussian Process in the VLM's embedding space, which captures useful global information about the target domain, to propagate the expert's supervision to any target data point. Our empirical evaluation shows how VH-CBM predicts more accurate concepts than VLM-guided CBMs even when annotating as little as 1% of the data, while sporting better concept calibration and supporting active learning.

Extreme ocean phenomena are challenging not only to predict but to diagnose, as accurate forecasts alone do not reveal the underlying physical drivers. While recent machine learning approaches achieve strong predictive skill, they remain largely opaque and provide limited guarantees of fidelity to ground-truth physics. We introduce OceanCBM, the first concept bottleneck model (CBM) for spatiotemporal prediction and mechanistic interrogation of ocean dynamics. OceanCBM uses mixed supervision to predict mixed layer heat content, a key precursor of marine heatwaves, while routing information through an intermediate layer of prescribed concepts derived from geophysical fluid dynamics and a 'free' concept. This design imposes soft physical structure without over-constraining the model, and the free concept both regularizes concept predictions and captures residual physical processes. Across ensemble initializations, we show that mixed supervision yields consistent mechanistic representations, whereas prediction-only and prescription-only baselines learn highly variable latent structures despite similar predictive performance. OceanCBM achieves interpretable, physically grounded representations without sacrificing skill, explicitly characterizing the interpretability-performance trade-off.

Interpretable machine learning aims to provide transparent models whose decision-making processes can be readily understood by humans. Recent advances in rule-based approaches, such as expressive Boolean formulas (BoolXAI), offer faithful and compact representations of model behavior. However, for non-technical stakeholders, main challenges remain in practice: (i) selecting semantically meaningful features and (ii) translating formal logical rules into accessible explanations. In this work, we propose BoolXLLM , as a hybrid framework that integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) into the end-to-end pipeline of Boolean rule learning. We augment BoolXAI , an expressive Boolean rule-based classifier, with LLMs at three critical stages: (1) feature selection, where LLMs guide the identification of domain-relevant variables; (2) threshold recommendation, where LLMs propose semantically meaningful discretization strategies for numerical features; and (3) rule compression and interpretation, where Boolean rules are translated into natural language explanations at both global and local levels. This integration bridges formal, faithful explanations with human-understandable narratives. This allows build an explainable AI system that is both theoretically grounded and accessible to non-experts. Early empirical results demonstrate that LLM-assisted pipelines improve interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance. Our work highlights the promise of combining symbolic reasoning with language-based models for human-centered explainability.

Many three-dimensional spatial fields are anisotropic, with directions of rapid and slow variation that need not align with the coordinate axes. Standard Gaussian process kernels with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) capture only axis-aligned anisotropy, while generic full symmetric positive definite (SPD) metrics can represent rotated anisotropy but do not parameterise principal length-scales and directions directly. We introduce an interpretable rotationally anisotropic GP kernel that parameterises a three-dimensional SPD covariance metric using three principal length-scales and an explicit SO(3) rotation. The rotation is represented by an axis-angle vector and mapped to SO(3) via the Lie-algebra exponential map, giving unconstrained Euclidean coordinates for inference while always inducing a valid SPD metric. The construction spans the same family of three-dimensional SPD covariance metrics as a generic full-SPD parameterisation, but exposes the geometry differently: length-scales and orientation are explicit, interpretable, and directly available for prior specification and posterior summaries. We perform Bayesian inference on these quantities using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and characterise the resulting symmetries and weakly identified regimes. On synthetic data with rotated anisotropy, the posterior recovers the generating metric and improves prediction relative to an axis-aligned ARD baseline, while matching the predictive performance of a generic full SPD baseline. When the ground truth is axis-aligned, posterior mass concentrates near the identity rotation and predictive performance matches ARD. On a material-density dataset from a laboratory-fabricated nano-brick, the inferred metric reveals rotated anisotropy that is not captured by axis-aligned kernels.

Machine learning has become increasingly prevalent in football performance analysis, yet most studies prioritize predictive accuracy while implicitly assuming that learned performance determinants and their interpretations are transferable across competition levels. Whether interpretability remains reliable under domain shift-from elite to university football remains largely unexplored. This study investigates whether performance determinants learned from elite competitions are structurally transferable to university-level football and whether their interpretations remain robust under domain shift. Models were trained on large-scale event data from the top five European leagues and applied to university football data from National Tsing Hua University (NTHU) using an identical feature space. Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron models were interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Counterfactual Impact Score (CIS). Across five experiments, elite football exhibited a stable and consistent hierarchy of performance determinants across leagues, models, and explanation methods. In contrast, NTHU university football showed substantial reordering of key indicators, reduced explanation stability, weaker structural agreement with elite domains, and increased sensitivity to explanation method. These findings suggest that interpretability robustness is domain-dependent. Rather than reflecting methodological limitations alone, instability in explanations under domain shift may serve as a diagnostic signal of structural ambiguity in the target domain.

Deriving governing equations from empirical observations is a longstanding challenge in science. Although artificial intelligence (AI) has demonstrated substantial capabilities in function approximation, the discovery of explainable and extrapolatable equations remains a fundamental limitation of modern AI, posing a central bottleneck for AI-driven scientific discovery. Here, we present machine collective intelligence, a unified paradigm that integrates two fundamental yet distinct traditions in computational intelligence--symbolism and metaheuristics--to enable autonomous and evolutionary discovery of governing equations. It orchestrates multiple reasoning agents to evolve their symbolic hypotheses through coordinated generation, evaluation, critique, and consolidation, enabling scientific discovery beyond single-agent inference. Across scientific systems governed by deterministic, stochastic, or previously uncharacterized dynamics, machine collective intelligence autonomously recovered the underlying governing equations without relying on hand-crafted domain knowledge. Furthermore, the resulting equations reduced extrapolation error by up to six orders of magnitude relative to deep neural networks, while condensing 0.5-1 million model parameters into just 5-40 interpretable parameters. This study marks an important shift in AI toward the autonomous discovery of principled scientific equations.

Controllable medical video generation has achieved remarkable progress, but it still lacks interpretability, which requires the alignment of generated contents with physical priors and faithful clinical manifestations. To push the boundaries from mere controllability to interpretability, we propose DepthPilot, the first interpretable framework for colonoscopy video generation. This work takes a step toward trustworthy generation through two synergistic paradigms. To achieve explicit geometric grounding, DepthPilot devises a prior distribution alignment strategy, injecting depth constraints into the diffusion backbone via parameter-efficient fine-tuning to ensure anatomical fidelity. To enhance intrinsic nonlinear modeling under these geometric constraints, DepthPilot employs an adaptive spline denoising module, replacing fixed linear weights with learnable spline functions to capture complex spatio-temporal dynamics. Extensive evaluations across three public datasets and in-house clinical data confirm DepthPilot's robust ability to produce physically consistent videos. It achieves FID scores below 15 across all benchmarks and ranks first in clinician assessments, bridging the gap between "visually realistic" and "clinically interpretable". Moreover, DepthPilot-generated videos are expected to enable reliable 3D reconstruction, facilitating surgical navigation and blind region identification, and serve as a foundation toward the colorectal world model.

STEM education researchers are often interested in identifying moments of students' mechanistic reasoning for deeper analysis, but have limited capacity to search through many team conversation transcripts to find segments with a high concentration of such reasoning. We offer a solution in the form of an interpretable machine learning model that outputs time-varying probabilities that individual students are engaging in acts of mechanistic reasoning, leveraging evidence from their own utterances as well as contributions from the rest of the group. Using the toolkit of intentionally-designed probabilistic models, we introduce a specific inductive bias that steers the probabilistic dynamics toward desired, domain-aligned behavior. Experiments compare trained models with and without the inductive bias components, investigating whether their presence improves the desired model behavior on transcripts involving never-before-seen students and a novel discussion context. Our results show that the inductive bias improves generalization -- supporting the claim that interpretability is built into the model for this task rather than imposed post hoc. We conclude with practical recommendations for STEM education researchers seeking to adopt the tool and for ML researchers aiming to extend the model's design. Overall, we hope this work encourages the development of mechanistically interpretable models that are understandable and controllable for both end users and model designers in STEM education research.

The field of machine learning is subject to an increasing interest in models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and robust, thus allowing their end users to understand and trust AI systems. This paper presents a novel method for learning a set of optimal quantile regression trees. The advantages of this method are that (1) it provides predictions about the complete conditional distribution of a target variable without prior assumptions on this distribution; (2) it provides predictions that are interpretable; (3) it learns a set of optimal quantile regression trees without compromising algorithmic efficiency compared to learning a single tree.

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) can be used to create non-linear glass-box (i.e. explicitly interpretable) models, where the predictive function is fully observable over the complete input space. However, glass-box interpretability itself does not allow for the incorporation of expert knowledge from the modeller. In this paper, we present ParamBoost, a novel GAM whose shape functions (i.e. mappings from individual input features to the output) are learnt using a Gradient Boosting algorithm that fits cubic polynomial functions at leaf nodes. ParamBoost incorporates several constraints commonly used in parametric analysis to ensure well-refined shape functions. These constraints include: (i) continuity of the shape functions and their derivatives (up to C2); (ii) monotonicity; (iii) convexity; (iv) feature interaction constraints; and (v) model specification constraints. Empirical results show that the unconstrained ParamBoost model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art GAMs across several real-world datasets. We further demonstrate that modellers can selectively impose required constraints at a modest trade-off in predictive performance, allowing the model to be fully tailored to application-specific interpretability and parametric-analysis requirements.

Interpretable machine learning techniques are becoming essential tools for extracting physical insights from complex quantum data. We build on recent advances in variational autoencoders to demonstrate that such models can learn physically meaningful and interpretable representations from a broad class of unlabeled quantum datasets. From raw measurement data alone, the learned representation reveals rich information about the underlying structure of quantum phase spaces. We further augment the learning pipeline with symbolic methods, enabling the discovery of compact analytical descriptors that serve as order parameters for the distinct regimes emerging in the learned representations. We demonstrate the framework on experimental Rydberg-atom snapshots, classical shadows of the cluster Ising model, and hybrid discrete-continuous fermionic data, revealing previously unreported phenomena such as a corner-ordering pattern in the Rydberg arrays. These results establish a general framework for the automated and interpretable discovery of physical laws from diverse quantum datasets. All methods are available through qdisc, an open-source Python library designed to make these tools accessible to the broader community.

We study a classification problem with three key challenges: pervasive informative missingness, the integration of partial prior expert knowledge into the learning process, and the need for interpretable decision rules. We propose a framework that encodes prior knowledge through an expert-guided class-conditional model for one or more classes, and use this model to construct a small set of interpretable goodness-of-fit features. The features quantify how well the observed data agree with the expert model, isolating the contributions of different aspects of the data, including both observed and missing components. These features are combined with a few transparent auxiliary summaries in a simple discriminative classifier, resulting in a decision rule that is easy to inspect and justify. We develop and apply the framework in the context of seismic monitoring used to assess compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. We show that the method has strong potential as a transparent screening tool, reducing workload for expert analysts. A simulation designed to isolate the contribution of the proposed framework shows that this interpretable expert-guided method can even outperform strong standard machine-learning classifiers, particularly when training samples are small.

Catastrophic forgetting remains a fundamental challenge in continual learning, in which models often forget previous knowledge when fine-tuned on a new task. This issue is especially pronounced in class incremental learning (CIL), which is the most challenging setting in continual learning. Existing methods to address catastrophic forgetting often sacrifice either model interpretability or accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce ClassIncremental Concept Bottleneck Model (CI-CBM), which leverage effective techniques, including concept regularization and pseudo-concept generation to maintain interpretable decision processes throughout incremental learning phases. Through extensive evaluation on seven datasets, CI-CBM achieves comparable performance to black-box models and outperforms previous interpretable approaches in CIL, with an average 36% accuracy gain. CICBM provides interpretable decisions on individual inputs and understandable global decision rules, as shown in our experiments, thereby demonstrating that human understandable concepts can be maintained during incremental learning without compromising model performance. Our approach is effective in both pretrained and non-pretrained scenarios; in the latter, the backbone is trained from scratch during the first learning phase. Code is publicly available at github.com/importAmir/CI-CBM.

Stellar and AGN-driven feedback processes affect the distribution of gas on a wide range of scales, from within galaxies well into the intergalactic medium. Yet, it remains unclear how feedback, through its connection to key galaxy properties, shapes the radial gas density profile in the host halo. We tackle this question using suites of the EAGLE, IllustrisTNG, and Simba cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, which span a variety of feedback models. We develop a random forest algorithm that predicts the radial gas density profile within haloes from the total halo mass and five global properties of the central galaxy: gas and stellar mass; star formation rate; mass and accretion rate of the central black hole (BH). The algorithm reproduces the simulated gas density profiles with an average accuracy of $\sim$83-90% over the halo mass range $10^{9.5} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot} < M_{\rm 200c} < 10^{15} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ and redshift interval $0<z<4$. For the first time, we apply Sobol statistical sensitivity analysis to full cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, quantifying how each feature affects the gas density as a function of distance from the halo centre. Across all simulations and redshifts, the total halo mass and the gas mass of the central galaxy are the most strongly tied to the halo gas distribution, while stellar and BH properties are generally less informative. The exact relative importance of the different features depends on the feedback scenario and redshift. Our framework can be readily embedded in semi-analytic models of galaxy formation to incorporate halo gas density profiles consistent with different hydrodynamical simulations. Our work also provides a proof of concept for constraining feedback models with future observations of galaxy properties and of the surrounding gas distribution.

Model trees provide an appealing way to perform interpretable machine learning for both classification and regression problems. In contrast to ``classic'' decision trees with constant values in their leaves, model trees can use linear combinations of predictor variables in their leaf nodes to form predictions, which can help achieve higher accuracy and smaller trees. Typical algorithms for learning model trees from training data work in a greedy fashion, growing the tree in a top-down manner by recursively splitting the data into smaller and smaller subsets. Crucially, the selected splits are only locally optimal, potentially rendering the tree overly complex and less accurate than a tree whose structure is globally optimal for the training data. In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of constructing globally optimal model trees for classification and regression with linear support vector machines at the leaf nodes. To this end, we present mixed-integer linear programming formulations to learn optimal trees, compute such trees for a large collection of benchmark data sets, and compare their performance against greedily grown model trees in terms of interpretability and accuracy. We also compare to classic optimal and greedily grown decision trees, random forests, and support vector machines. Our results show that optimal model trees can achieve competitive accuracy with very small trees. We also investigate the effect on the accuracy of replacing axis-parallel splits with multivariate ones, foregoing interpretability while potentially obtaining greater accuracy.

We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is provided by fitting the base model again to the data from which the error prediction is removed (subtracted), yielding a difference in the model parameters which can be interpreted. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the potential of the method to discover and explain underlying patterns in the data.

Background: Neurosymbolic (NeSy) artificial intelligence describes the combination of logic or rule-based techniques with neural networks. Compared to neural approaches, NeSy methods often possess enhanced interpretability, which is particularly promising for biomedical applications like drug discovery. However, no clear guidelines exist to assess the biological plausibility of model interpretations. Methods: To assess interpretability in the context of drug discovery, we devise a novel prediction task, called drug mechanism-of-action (MoA) deconvolution, with an associated, tailored knowledge graph (KG), MoA-net. We then develop the MoA Retrieval System (MARS), a NeSy approach for drug discovery which leverages logical rules with learned rule weights. Results: Using MARS' interpretable features alongside domain knowledge, we find that MARS and other NeSy approaches on KGs are susceptible to reasoning shortcuts, in which the prediction of true labels is driven by ``degree-bias'' rather than the domain-based rules. Subsequently, we demonstrate ways to identify and mitigate this. Thereafter, MARS achieves performance on par with current state-of-the-art models while producing model interpretations aligned with known MoAs. Conclusion: Through MARS, we showcase the novel task of computational MoA deconvolution. Our results emphasize the importance of using interpretable models, like NeSy ones, for applications in drug discovery. Specifically, by identifying and mitigating reasoning shortcuts, MARS MoA predictions which are biologically meaningful and, therefore, more reliable for downstream drug discovery research.

Rule extraction is a central problem in interpretable machine learning because it seeks to convert opaque predictive behavior into human-readable symbolic structure. This paper presents Chat Incremental Pattern Constructor (ChatIPC), a lightweight incremental symbolic learning system that extracts ordered token-transition rules from text, enriches them with definition-based expansion, and constructs responses by similarity-guided candidate selection. The system may be viewed as a rule extractor operating over a token graph rather than a conventional classifier. I formalize the knowledge base, definition expansion, candidate scoring, repetition control, English-rule heuristics, and response construction mechanisms used by ChatIPC. I further situate the method within the literature on rule extraction, decision tree induction, association rules, interpretable machine learning, and sequence construction. The updated C++ code implementation of ChatIPC is also reviewed in detail: it parses an embedded dictionary, normalizes lexical keys, caches definition tokens and part-of-speech tags, computes Jaccard scores on bitsets, applies heuristic linguistic bonuses, and persists the knowledge base with a versioned binary format. The paper emphasizes mathematical formulation and algorithmic clarity, and it provides pseudocode for the learning, scoring, and construction algorithms.