Precipitation

Bayesian filtering is a well-known problem that aims to estimate plausible states of a dynamical system from observations. Among existing approaches to solve this problem, particle filters are theoretically exact for non-linear dynamics and observations, but suffer from poor scalability in high dimensions. In this work, we show that diffusion-based emulators of dynamical systems can be used to implement, without additional training, an optimal variant of particle filters that has remained largely unexplored due to implementation challenges with classical numerical solvers. Experiments on nonlinear chaotic systems, including atmospheric dynamics, demonstrate that the proposed approach successfully scales particle filtering to high-dimensional settings.

A key question in psycholinguistics is how inferences about the meaning of linguistic input unfold incrementally a comprehender's mind. In this work, we study reading dynamics for ``noisy-channel garden-path'' sentences, which temporarily appear well-formed but feature late-appearing violations of expectation that can be resolved not by inferring an alternative syntactic structure, but by inferring the presence of an error. We find evidence for targeted regressions -- eye movements towards regions that are promising loci of possible errors in light of later-arriving information, showing patterns consistent with the posterior inferences of a model of noisy-channel processing with reanalysis. We discuss the implications of these findings for theories of noisy-channel language comprehension and information-theoretic explanations of reading dynamics.

Optimal transport provides a powerful framework for comparing measures while respecting the geometry of their support, but comes with an expensive computational cost, hindering its potential application to real world use cases. On manifolds, convolutional algorithms based on the heat kernel have been proposed to alleviate this cost, but their theoretical properties remain largely unexplored. We establish that the heat kernel cost converges to the optimal transport cost as time vanishes in the balanced and unbalanced cases. In the specific case of the 2-sphere $\mathbb{S}^2$, we ensure that the associated Sinkhorn divergences retains the desirable geometric and analytic properties of classical optimal transport discrepancies. Moreover, we leverage the harmonic structure of the sphere to derive a fast Sinkhorn algorithm, requiring only $\mathcal{O}(n)$ memory and $\mathcal{O}(n^{3/2})$ time per iteration, with fully dense GPU-friendly operations. We validate its computational efficiency on synthetic data, and discuss its potential use in the evaluation of global climate models, providing both spatial and seasonal insights into models performances.

Accurate and efficient time-series forecasting remains a challenging problem for both classical and quantum neural architectures, particularly in multivariate environmental settings. This work adapts the Quantum Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (QLIF) spiking neural network for time-series regression tasks, specifically short-term multivariate weather forecasting. We extend QLIF beyond classification and demonstrate its applicability to continuous-valued prediction problems. The QLIF-CAST model encodes neuron excitation states as single-qubit quantum superpositions, driven by Rx rotation gates and T1 relaxation decay, and is embedded within a hybrid quantum-classical recurrent architecture. We conduct two distinct evaluations. First, a controlled comparison against a parameter-matched classical LIF baseline on a multivariate weather dataset shows that QLIF-CAST achieves 15.4% lower MSE and 4.4% lower MAE, demonstrating that quantum neuronal dynamics reduce prediction error over classical equivalents. Second, a cross-domain comparative analysis with state-of-the-art quantum LSTM (QLSTM) and quantum neural network (QNN) models on air quality and wind speed benchmarks reveals that QLIF-CAST converges in up to 94% less training time, occupying a distinct position in the speed-error trade-off space. Hardware verification on IBM Marrakesh (156-qubit QPU) confirms reliable circuit execution with only 1.2% average deviation from simulation.

High-resolution precipitation information is essential for climate impact assessment, yet global climate models remain too coarse to resolve key small-scale processes. Existing machine learning downscaling methods often require paired low- and high-resolution data for supervised learning, are tied to fixed regions or scale factors during inference, and can be computationally expensive to train and run in physical space. Here we introduce Longwang, a zero-shot latent generative framework for global spatiotemporal precipitation downscaling. Longwang learns a context-conditioned latent generative prior and combines it with a physically informed observation operator through posterior sampling, enabling daily O(10 km) precipitation fields to be generated from monthly O(100 km) inputs. On ERA5 reanalysis, Longwang outperforms standard posterior sampling with an unconditional generative prior in reconstructing fine-scale spatial patterns, preserving temporal coherence, and recovering extreme precipitation intensities. The framework further generalizes to historical climate simulations and future climate projections under substantial distribution shift.

Deep learning weather prediction models achieve remarkable predictive skill yet remain largely opaque: we know little about how they represent physical climate phenomena internally. Mechanistic interpretability through Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) offers a principled route to decomposing these representations, but existing SAEs assume strictly linear feature superposition - a constraint ill-suited for the highly nonlinear atmospheric dynamics encoded in modern transformers. We introduce KAN-SAE, a sparse autoencoder whose encoder replaces the standard ReLU with learnable per-feature B-spline activations drawn from Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), allowing each latent dimension to develop its own nonlinear gating profile. Applied to Sonny, KAN-SAE discovers 975 alive features (vs. 566 for a linear baseline, a 72% improvement) with 20% lower inter-feature redundancy and comparable reconstruction fidelity. Without any climate supervision, KAN-SAE identifies an interpretable European heatwave feature spatially concentrated over western Europe, and a western Pacific typhoon tracker confirmed by causal steering experiments. Our results demonstrate that nonlinear activations are essential for mechanistic interpretability of deep learning weather prediction models, recovering climate features that remain invisible to linear baselines.

One of the main causes of death around the globe is malaria. Researchers have sought to develop predictive models for malaria outbreaks based on meteorological data, climate data and the breeding cycle of Plasmodium, the causative agent of malaria. This study predicts the severity of malaria based on environmental and biological factors. A logistic regression model was developed in this study to predict the severity of malaria based on such factors as sickle cell disease, stagnant water, garbage dump, wet lawns, and the use of treated mosquito nets, with an 83.3% accuracy rate. The study was carried out in the Bosomtwe District of Ghana with 417 respondents. It was deduced that although children in the District are highly prone to malaria infection, the severity is very low. The study recommends that not just having a good sample size alone is important during machine learning model development, but also having a good sample representation of the various class labels is equally important.

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate near-future landslide risk by integrating observed rainfall with short-term rainfall forecasts from spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Although recent landslide prediction methods have improved predictive performance using statistical and deep learning approaches, most assume accurate rainfall inputs. In operational settings, however, landslide prediction relies on rainfall forecasts, which often contain spatial displacement of rainfall fields due to forecasting uncertainties. Such displacement can alter local accumulated rainfall and degrade prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose a novel LEWS robust to rainfall field displacement. The key idea is to learn latent representations from rainfall and terrain data that remain stable under displacement in rainfall field motion, enabling reliable geospatial data integration for landslide risk estimation. The landslide prediction model is trained using Rainfall-Motion-Aware Contrastive Learning (RMCL), which introduces temporally correlated rainfall field perturbations to emulate forecast-induced displacement in rainfall-driven spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Experiments were conducted using two years of rainfall and terrain data across Japan, covering 19 regions with landslide events. The proposed system achieved up to 37% higher precision than state-of-the-art baselines. These results demonstrate that modeling rainfall as a moving spatial field and addressing rainfall field displacement during learning significantly improve the reliability of short-term landslide prediction in operational early warning systems.

The martian atmosphere hosts dynamical phenomena ranging from planet-encircling dust storms to mesoscale orographic clouds and nocturnal low-level jets. General circulation model show capability to simulate these phenomena, but is computationally expensive at resolution needed to resolve mesoscale features. While assimilation of satellite remote sensing observation enable forecasting capabilities using such models, observation record is often sparse, short and fragmented across instrument generators. These constraints motivate the development of a data-driven foundation model for the Martian atmosphere. Foundation models live in a complex design landscape. There is an interplay between the available data, the physics of the underlying processes and corresponding developments in AI. Even though the idea of a foundation model is to address multiple use cases in a data- and compute-efficient manner, it is important to have a clear picture what applications can sensibly addressed by a single model. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate this design landscape. We discuss available data ranging from atmospheric retrievals to reanalysis datasets as well as existing physical models. Moreover, we identify a wide range of candidate downstream applications. Finally, we consider relevant recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) that can be leveraged in this context. Here, we put a particular emphasis on AI models for atmospheric physics, data-driven approaches to data assimilation as well as methods to work in a limited data setting.

Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe a range of future scenarios of global economic and demographic development. These SSPs are intrinsically linked to changes in climate forcings -- the external drivers, such as greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, which change Earth's energy balance over time. These forcings act as boundary conditions in Earth System Models (ESM), providing insight into the potential climatic impacts of each SSP. Running an ESM, however, is extremely computationally expensive, conflicting with the need for large ensemble runs to provide robust estimates in the presence of internal variability and scenario uncertainty. Machine Learning emulators provide a promising avenue towards fast and cheap scenario generation, but until recently lacked uncertainty quantification and the ability to condition on external forcings. Here, we build upon recent work and extend it by training on multiple SSPs. We successfully generate scenarios of IPSL -- CM6A -- LR unseen during training and remain physically consistent with the underlying climate model, even under strong extrapolation scenarios. Our emulator is validated against MESMER -- M, a statistical emulator of land surface temperature. Our research demonstrates that our model, ArchesClimate -- SSP, does not simply imitate scenarios seen during training, but is actually capable of modeling the response of a climate state to diverse forcings. This is an important step towards reliable and rapid climate model scenario generation.

Global food security depends on predicting crop responses to climate variability, yet process based crop models remain too computationally expensive for large scale exploration of genotype and environment interactions. Here we develop a probabilistic neural emulator of APSIM that reproduces key maize growth processes across 13 outputs with high fidelity (with R^2 of 0.93) while reducing simulation time by several orders of magnitude. Trained on two million simulations spanning diverse genetic, soil, and management conditions, and augmented with a convolutional synthetic weather generator that produces physically consistent climate sequences, the framework enables scalable exploration of crop responses under realistic and diverse environmental inputs while providing calibrated predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian inference. Applying this framework across 100,000 trait configurations, six soil environments in Iowa and Illinois, and climate projections through the year 2100 under two emissions scenarios, we identify 181 maize trait combinations that consistently maintain high yield across all tested conditionsan analysis infeasible with the mechanistic model alone. We further show that radiation use efficiency and temperature driven root dynamics are dominant drivers of yield resilience. Notably, projected yield distributions vary substantially across locations, with some lower productivity sites exhibiting yield increases under future climate scenarios, indicating that climate change may reshape regional yield potential in nonintuitive ways. These results demonstrate how uncertainty aware emulation transforms mechanistic crop simulation from a computational bottleneck into an on demand discovery engine, one capable of interrogating the full genotype, environment and management space at a scale no process-based model can match.

While multi-modal 3D semantic occupancy prediction typically enhances robustness by fusing camera and LiDAR inputs, its effectiveness is fundamentally constrained by environmental variability. Specifically, camera sensors suffer from severe low-light degradation, while LiDAR sensors encounter significant backscatter noise during heavy precipitation. These adverse conditions create a modality trust problem, as static fusion strategies fail to adaptively re-weight inputs when a specific sensor becomes unreliable. To address this, we propose a VLM-assisted framework leveraging the pre-trained CLIP latent space to guide multi-sensor integration via linguistic environmental cues. We utilize a parameter-efficient adapter to align weather-specific text embeddings with sensor features, coupled with a gating strategy that decomposes environmental uncertainty into two factors: visibility and illumination. This enables the model to dynamically modulate the fusion ratio - prioritizing semantic camera features in clear daylight and shifting to geometric LiDAR priors during rainy nights. Evaluations on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate the versatility of our approach, as implementing our proposed framework on the OccMamba and M-CONet architectures achieves mIoU scores of 26.3 and 21.1, respectively, significantly outperforming their traditional baselines.

Uncertainty quantification is essential in safety-critical settings--from autonomous driving to aviation, finance, and health--where decisions must rely on conservative bounds rather than point estimates. Predictor-level intervals (e.g., from quantile regression, conformal prediction, variance networks, or Bayesian models) generally do not compose: adding two per-variable intervals need not yield a valid interval for their sum or preserve coverage. In aviation, Gaussian overbounding replaces complex error distributions with a conservative Gaussian whose tails dominate the truth, so conservatism propagates through linear operations. Yet classical overbounds are global, often overly conservative, and hard to adapt to feature-conditioned errors. We propose a unified learning framework that trains neural networks to produce context-aware Gaussian overbounds--mean and scale--with provable conservatism on a finite quantile grid and, under three explicit regularity assumptions, continuous-tail conservatism on a certified interval. Our overbounding loss enforces conservativeness at selected quantiles while penalizing distributional distance with a Wasserstein-style term. The learned bounds support conservative linear-combination and convolution analysis on the enforced grid, and on the certified interval when assumptions hold, while being less redundant than traditional methods. We provide a scoped analysis of discrete-to-continuous conservatism and compact-domain objective regularity, and validate on synthetic data and real-world datasets, including multipath, ionospheric, and tropospheric residual errors. Across these settings, the method yields tighter bounds while maintaining conservatism on the enforced grid and in experiments. The framework is modality-agnostic and applicable to learning systems that require conservative, feature-conditioned uncertainty estimates in dynamic environments.

Accurate precipitation nowcasting over extended horizons (0-3 hours) is essential for disaster mitigation and operational decision-making, yet remains a critical challenge in the field. Existing deterministic approaches are predominantly constrained to shorter prediction windows (0-2 hours), exhibiting severe performance degradation beyond 90 minutes owing to their inherent difficulty in capturing long-range spatiotemporal dependencies from radar-derived observations. To address these fundamental limitations, we propose MambaRain, a novel multi-scale encoder-decoder architecture that synergistically integrates Mamba's linear-complexity long-range temporal modeling with self-attention mechanisms for explicit spatial correlation capture. The core innovation lies in a hybrid design paradigm wherein Mamba blocks leverage selective state space mechanisms to model global temporal dynamics across extended sequences with computational efficiency, while self-attention modules explicitly characterize spatial correlations within precipitation fields - a capability inherently absent in Mamba's sequential processing paradigm. This complementary synergy enables comprehensive spatiotemporal representation learning, effectively extending the viable forecasting horizon to 2-3 hours with substantial accuracy improvements. Furthermore, we introduce a spectral loss formulation to mitigate blurring artifacts characteristic of chaotic precipitation systems, thereby preserving fine-scale motion details critical for nowcasting accuracy. Experimental validation demonstrates that MambaRain substantially outperforms existing deterministic methodologies in 0-3 hour nowcasting tasks, with particularly pronounced performance gains in the challenging 2-3 hour prediction range.

Precipitation nowcasting is a vital spatio-temporal prediction task for meteorological applications but faces challenges due to the chaotic property of precipitation systems. Existing methods predominantly rely on single-source radar data to build either deterministic or probabilistic models for extrapolation. However, the single deterministic model suffers from blurring due to MSE convergence. The single probabilistic model, typically represented by diffusion models, can generate fine details but suffers from spurious artifacts that compromise accuracy and computational inefficiency. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel coarse-to-fine Vision Mamba Unet and residual Diffusion (VMU-Diff) based precipitation nowcasting framework. It realizes precipitation nowcasting through a two-stage process, i.e., a deterministic model-based coarse stage to predict global motion trends and a probabilistic model-based fine stage to generate fine prediction details. In the coarse prediction stage, rather than single-source radar data, both radar and multi-band satellite data are taken as input. A spatial-temporal attention block and several Vision mamba state-space blocks realize multi-source data fusion, and predict the future echo global dynamics. The fine-grained stage is realized by a spatio-temporal refine generator based on residual conditional diffusion models. It first obtains spatio-temporal residual features based on coarse prediction and ground truth, and further reconstructs the residual via conditional Mamba state-space module. Experiments on Jiangsu SWAN datasets demonstrate the improvements of our method over state-of-the-art methods, particularly in short-term forecasts.

Reliable precipitation monitoring is essential for disaster risk reduction, water resources management, and agricultural decision-making. Multi-source satellite observations, particularly the combination of geostationary infrared and passive microwave measurements, have become a primary means of precipitation detection. Traditional multi-source satellite precipitation estimation methods remain computationally inefficient, and many deep learning methods lack the flexibility to incorporate new sensors without retraining the full model. Here we introduce PRISMA (Precipitation Inference from Satellite Modalities via generAtive modeling), a plug-and-play latent generative framework for multi-sensor precipitation estimation. PRISMA learns an unconditional precipitation prior from IMERG Final fields and constrains it through independently trained, sensor-specific conditional branches, allowing new observation sources to be incorporated without retraining the generative backbone. Applied to FY-4B AGRI infrared and GPM GMI microwave observations, PRISMA improves Critical Success Index by up to 40.3% and reduces root-mean-square error by 22.6% relative to infrared-only estimation within microwave swaths, while also improving probabilistic skill and maintaining an average inference time of about 37 s. Independent rain-gauge validation across China confirms consistent gains, and typhoon case studies show that microwave conditioning restores eyewall and spiral rainband structures, reducing storm-core mean absolute error by up to 42.3%. PRISMA thus provides an extensible and efficient framework for multi-sensor precipitation estimation.

Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control using data-driven weather forecasting models have not yet been explored. While adversarial attacks also generate perturbations that alter forecasts, they aim to exploit model artifacts and do not account for physical plausibility. In this paper, we propose a gradient-based guidance framework for precipitation-reduction interventions through diffusion sampling in diffusion-based weather forecasting models. Instead of directly perturbing atmospheric states, our method steers the diffusion sampling trajectory, enabling precipitation reduction while maintaining consistency with the atmospheric distribution. To assess physical plausibility, we evaluate from three perspectives: (i) vertical and variable-wise perturbation profiles, (ii) latent-space trajectory deviation, and (iii) cross-model transferability. Experiments on extreme precipitation events from WeatherBench2 demonstrate that our method achieves effective precipitation reduction while yielding more physically plausible interventions than adversarial perturbations.

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on frame-to-frame transition models. However, these models are fragile when observations are non-Markovian (when they form only a partial slice of a higher-dimensional latent state as in real-world weather data): they tend to accumulate errors over long horizons. At the same time, learned DA methods typically commit to a single regime, either filtering (nowcasting, real-time forecasting) or smoothing (retrospective reanalysis), which splits what should be a shared prior across application-specific pipelines. To address both issues, we introduce ForcingDAS, a unified and robust DA framework. Built on Diffusion Forcing with an independent noise level assigned to each frame, ForcingDAS learns a joint-trajectory prior instead of frame-to-frame transitions. This allows it to capture long-horizon temporal dependencies and reduce error accumulation. In addition, the same trained model spans the full filtering to smoothing spectrum at inference time. Specifically, nowcasting, fixed-lag smoothing, and batch reanalysis are selected through the inference schedule alone, without retraining. We evaluate ForcingDAS on 2D Navier-Stokes vorticity, precipitation nowcasting, and global atmospheric state estimation. Across all settings, a single model is competitive with or outperforms both learned and classical baselines that are specialized for individual regimes, with the largest gains observed on real-world weather benchmarks.

Adverse weather removal (AWR) in real-world images remains challenging due to heterogeneous and unseen degradations, while distortion-driven training often yields overly smooth results. We propose PVRF, a unified framework that integrates zero-shot soft weather perceptions with velocity-constrained rectified-flow refinement. PVRF introduces an AWR-specific question answering module (AWR-QA) that uses frozen vision--language models (VLMs) to estimate soft probabilities of weather types and low-level attribute scores. These perceptions condition restoration networks via attribute-modulated normalization (AMN) and weather-weighted adapters (WWA), producing an anchor estimate for refinement. We then learn a terminal-consistent residual rectified flow with perception-adaptive source perturbation and a terminal-consistent velocity parameterization to stabilize learning near the terminal regime. Extensive experiments show that PVRF improves both fidelity and perceptual quality over state-of-the-art baselines, with strong cross-dataset generalization on single and combined degradations. Code will be released at https://github.com/dongw22/PVRF.

Existing precipitation nowcasting methods typically adopt an autoregressive formulation, where future states are predicted from previous outputs. However, such an approach accumulates errors over long rollouts, causing forecasts to drift away from physically plausible evolution trajectories. Although various studies have attempted to alleviate this problem by improving step-wise prediction accuracy, they largely neglect the global temporal evolution of meteorological systems and lack mechanisms to actively correct drift during rollouts. To address this issue, we propose McCast, a memory-guided latent drift correction method for precipitation nowcasting. Rather than treating memory as an unordered dictionary of latent states for passive conditioning, McCast leverages temporally organized memory to actively correct autoregressive latent evolution. Specifically, McCast introduces a Drift-Corrective Memory Bank (DCBank) that explicitly estimates the temporally consistent drift corrections to calibrate the divergent trajectory. DCBank performs drift correction in two stages: a Corrective Latent Extractor first predicts an initial correction from the current prediction and a reference latent state, and a Correction-Aware Memory Retrieval module then refines the initial correction using temporally organized historical memory. By explicitly correcting latent evolution, instead of improving step-wise prediction accuracy only, McCast produces more temporally coherent and reliable long-horizon forecasts. Experiments on two widely used benchmarks, SEVIR and MeteoNet, show that McCast achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly in challenging long-horizon forecasting scenarios.

Precipitation nowcasting remains challenging due to the highly localized, rapidly evolving, and heterogeneous nature of atmospheric dynamics. Although recent methods increasingly adopt attention-based architectures in both unimodal and multimodal settings, they mainly emphasize stronger representation learning and prediction capacity, while paying less attention to the stability of attention responses across samples. In this work, we show that cross-sample instability of attention-response energy is an important and previously underexplored source of forecasting unreliability. Empirically, inaccurate forecasts are associated with larger attention-response energy variance across heads and layers. Theoretically, we show that cross-sample variability can propagate through self-attention, and enlarge a lower bound on prediction error. Based on this insight, we propose HARECast, a Head-wise Attention Response Energy-regulated framework for precipitation nowcasting. HARECast explicitly models head-wise attention-response energy and stabilizes it through a group-wise regularization objective that reduces cross-sample fluctuations. The proposed formulation is generic and applicable to both unimodal and multimodal nowcasting architectures. We instantiate HARECast in a standard forecasting pipeline with reconstruction branches and a diffusion-based predictor, and evaluate it on commonly used benchmarks--SEVIR and MeteoNet. Experimental results demonstrate that HARECast achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Image restoration under multiple adverse weather conditions aims to develop a single model to recover the underlying scene with high visibility. Weather-related artifacts vary with the particle's distance to the camera according to the established scene visibility analysis, where close and faraway regions are more affected by falling drops and fog effects, respectively. Existing methods fail to consider this weather-specific physical visual process; thus, the restoration performance is limited. In this work, we analyze the common visual factors in adverse weather conditions and present a unified imaging model that considers the individually visible particles and fog-like aggregate scattering effects. Further, we design a novel weather-prior-based network, which leverages the weather-related prior information to help recover the scene by enhancing the features using the estimated occlusion and transmission. Experimental results in multiple adverse scenarios show the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art methods.

Object detection in adverse weather is critical for the safety of autonomous vehicles; however, the scarcity of labelled, real-world foggy data remains a significant bottleneck. In this paper, we propose Clear2Fog (C2F), an end-to-end, physics-based pipeline that simulates fog on clear-weather datasets while ensuring cross-modal consistency across camera and LiDAR. C2F combines monocular depth estimation with a novel atmospheric light estimation method to improve the physical consistency of synthetic fog generation while reducing structural artifacts and chromatic biases observed in existing frameworks. Utilising a training set of 270,000 images from the Waymo Open Dataset, we conduct an extensive data efficiency study to investigate whether environmental diversity can reduce dataset scale requirements and improve model generalisation under varying fog conditions. Our findings reveal that models trained on mixed-density fog datasets at 75% scale achieve comparable detection performance to those trained on fixed-density datasets at 100% scale, reducing synthetic training data requirements by 25%. We observe that this efficiency trend is consistent across two representative detector architectures. Furthermore, we investigate the sim-to-real transfer by using C2F-generated data as a pre-training foundation before fine-tuning on real-world fog data. We demonstrate that, within the evaluated settings, a relative 10x increase in the default fine-tuning learning rate reduces the negative transfer caused by standard fine-tuning, achieving up to a 1.17 mAP point improvement beyond the real-only baseline. Overall, this work demonstrates the value of diverse synthetic fog as a pre-training tool for real-world adaptation.

Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is critical for grid dispatch and reserve management, yet remains challenging due to the non-stationary, condition-dependent nature of wind generation. Meteorological exogenous variables carry substantial predictive information, but the most informative variable combination varies across sites, operating conditions, and prediction horizons. Existing deep learning approaches either treat exogenous inputs as generic auxiliary channels through uniform mixing or soft gating, or rely on fixed preprocessing steps such as PCA, without exploiting the physical structure of meteorological variables. We propose ECTO (Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator), a unified framework that decomposes exogenous variable modeling into two complementary modules. Physically-Grounded Variable Selection (PGVS) performs hierarchical, group-aware sparse selection over exogenous variables using a domain-informed physical prior and sparsemax activations, producing a compact, condition-adaptive exogenous context. Exogenous-Conditioned Regime Refinement (ECRR) routes the forecast through learned regime experts that apply gain--bias calibration and horizon-specific corrections via a mixture-of-experts paradigm. Experiments on three wind farms spanning different climates, capacities (66--200 MW), and exogenous dimensions (11--13 variables) demonstrate that ECTO achieves the lowest MSE across all sites, with relative improvements over the strongest baseline ranging from 2.2% to 5.2%, widening to 8.6% at the longer prediction horizon ($H=32$). Ablation analysis confirms that each exogenous-related component contributes positively (PGVS +1.84%, ECRR +2.86%), and interpretability analysis reveals that PGVS learns physically meaningful, site-specific variable selection patterns, while ECRR converges to well-separated calibration strategies consistent across sites.

Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods treat variables independently, degrading inter-variable relationships that govern compound hazards such as heat stress, drought, and wildfire. Here we show that a diffusion-based multivariate generative framework, combined with bias correction, recovers degraded inter-variable correlations even under a 50$\times$ increase in linear resolution. When applied to five meteorological variables over Japan, the framework reduces inter-variable correlation errors by more than fourfold relative to existing baselines while improving both univariate and spatial accuracy, leading to more accurate detection of severe drought. These results demonstrate that multivariate generative downscaling improves the reliability of compound risk assessment under large resolution gaps.

Precipitation nowcasting aims to forecast short-term radar echo sequences for extreme weather warning, where both prediction fidelity and inference efficiency are critical for real-world deployment. However, diffusion-based models, despite their strong generative capability, suffer from slow inference due to multi-step sampling trajectories, limiting their practical usability. Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) improves efficiency via straightened trajectories, but relies on latent space compression, which inevitably discards high-frequency physical details and degrades fine-grained prediction quality. To address these limitations, we propose PixelFlowCast, a two-stage probabilistic forecasting framework that achieves both high-efficiency and high-fidelity prediction without latent compression. Specifically, in the first stage, a deterministic model first produces coarse forecasts to capture global evolution trends. In the subsequent stage, the proposed KANCondNet extracts deep spatiotemporal evolution features to provide accurate conditional guidance. Based on this, a latent-free, few-step Pixel Mean Flows (PMF) predictor employs an $x$-prediction mechanism to generate high-quality predictions, effectively preserving fine-grained structures while maintaining fast inference. Experiments on the publicly available SEVIR dataset demonstrate that PixelFlowCast outperforms existing mainstream methods in both prediction accuracy and inference efficiency, particularly for long sequence forecasting, highlighting its strong potential for real-world operational deployment.

Atmospheric visibility is a critical variable for transportation safety and air quality management, however, accurate prediction remains challenging due to the complex interactions between meteorological conditions and air pollutants, as well as the rarity of low-visibility events. This study introduces a machine learning framework to nowcast visibility in six major South Korean cities. To handle the imbalance in the 2018-2020 training data, we applied the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique with Nominal and Continuous (SMOTENC) and Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN). An ensemble approach combining machine learning and deep learning models was then used and evaluated on a 2021 test dataset. The results revealed a marked decline in predictive performance in the test set compared to the cross-validation phase. This degradation was attributed to a distributional shift between training and testing periods, which was quantitatively confirmed by measuring the Wasserstein distance of the most influential feature identified by SHAP analysis. In general, this study presents a methodology that aims to simultaneously address the dual challenges of data imbalance and temporal distributional shifts, and emphasizes the necessity of accounting for evolving external environmental factors when implementing nowcasting models on time-series data.

Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis--GCM gap.

Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions. To address this challenge, we propose a universal framework called PnP-Corrector (Plug-and-Play Corrector). The core idea of our framework is to decouple the physical simulation from the error correction process: it freezes pre-trained physics simulation engines and exclusively trains a correction agent to proactively counteract the systematic biases emerging from the coupled system. Furthermore, we design an efficient predictive model architecture, DSLCast, to serve as the backbone of this framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the long-term stability and accuracy of coupled forecasting systems. For instance, in the challenging task of a 300-day global ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast, our PnP-Corrector framework reduces the prediction error of the baseline model by 28% and surpasses state-of-the-art models on several key metrics.

This data paper describes METBRA25Y, a harmonized archive of hourly surface meteorological observations from Brazil derived from public historical records of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). The dataset was designed to support reproducible environmental, climatological, hydrological, agricultural, urban-risk, and machine-learning studies that require station-level meteorological time series with standardized variable names and explicit quality-control metadata. The processing workflow ingests annual INMET archives, parses station metadata from raw file headers, normalizes heterogeneous Portuguese column names into a canonical schema, constructs hourly timestamps, consolidates observations by city and station, and exports compressed CSV files together with station manifests, per-station quality flags, daily precipitation aggregates, variable-level failure summaries, and missing-data audits. The quality-control protocol follows a two-stage strategy: first, physically implausible values are converted to missing values and flagged; second, temporal and cross-variable consistency checks generate diagnostic flags without necessarily overwriting the original measurements. The resulting package covers observations between 2000 and 2025, with stationspecific temporal coverage, and includes key meteorological variables such as precipitation, air temperature, dew point, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and global solar radiation. Based on the summary files included in the current release snapshot, the archive contains 616 unique station codes across variable summaries, of which 605 have coordinates within a broad Brazil plausibility envelope. This paper documents the dataset provenance, file organization, harmonized schema, quality-control rules, technical validation outputs, limitations, and recommended usage practices.

Accurate weather forecast reporting enables individuals and communities to better plan daily activities and agricultural operations. However, the current reporting process primarily relies on manual analysis of multi-source data, which leads to information overload and reduced efficiency. With the development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), leveraging data-driven models to analyze and generate reports in the weather forecasting domain remains largely underexplored. In this work, we propose the Weather Forecasting Report (WFR) task and construct the first instruction-tuning dataset for this task, named~\DatasetNameL, which covers 31 cities in America and 8 weather aspects. Based on this corpus, we develop the first model, \ModelNameL, specialized in generating weather forecast reports. Evaluation across multiple metrics on our dataset shows that \ModelNameL~ consistently outperforms leading closed-source MLLMs, particularly on structurally complex weather aspects. We further analyze its performance across diverse geographic regions and weather aspects. \ModelNameL~ demonstrates strong transferability across different regions, highlighting its zero-shot generalization capability. \ModelNameL~offers valuable insight for developing MLLMs specialized in weather report generation. .

Accurate four-dimensional (4D) precipitation information is essential for understanding the Earth's energy and water cycles, yet remains observationally unresolved at global scales. Conventional theory holds that geostationary infrared observations primarily sense cloud-top properties, with limited sensitivity to sub-cloud precipitation. Here we show that cloud-top infrared measurements nevertheless encode sufficient information to recover the four-dimensional structure of precipitation, revealing a previously unexploited observability of sub-cloud processes. We introduce a physically constrained deep learning framework, 4DPrecipNet, in which a moisture-first constraint requires the latent representation to recover precipitable water vapour, anchoring the model in thermodynamic consistency. By integrating multi-channel infrared radiances with these constraints and radar-derived precipitation profiles, we reconstruct the vertical and temporal evolution of precipitation systems from geostationary orbit. The framework captures deep convective structures and their evolution, with robust performance across large samples and independent radar comparisons. These results demonstrate that sub-cloud precipitation is physically encoded in cloud-top infrared observations, establishing a new pathway for continuous global monitoring of precipitation structure.

Modern online mass spectrometry generates multi-terabyte data streams critical for understanding Earth's environmental systems. However, extracting actionable chemical insights from these repositories is impeded by a computational bottleneck: existing clustering methods force a compromise among scalability, metric flexibility, and algorithmic stability. Here, we introduce Flexible Adaptive Stable Clustering (FASC), a dynamical systems framework that resolves these constraints by architecturally decoupling the similarity kernel from rigorous optimization logic. Unlike legacy heuristics that suffer from stochastic drift and algorithmic blending, FASC employs a Density-Augmented Similarity Selection rule and geometric constraints to guarantee deterministic, order-independent convergence. After validating FASC on canonical machine-learning ground truths (achieving >99.5% cluster purity and 0.99 Adjusted Rand Index), we deployed the framework on 25 million mass spectra of atmospheric aerosols. Demonstrating strictly linear empirical runtime scaling (O(N)), FASC autonomously mapped atmospheric aging pathways of secondary inorganic aerosols while isolating ultra-rare industrial tracers (<0.2% abundance), providing a scalable infrastructure for mining environmental big data.

Flight delays impose cascading operational and financial burdens across the aviation network, costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually by disrupting interconnected aircraft rotation systems. While prior machine learning approaches have demonstrated strong predictive performance, most treat upstream delays as static input variables rather than explicitly modeling how delays propagate dynamically through aircraft rotation chains, and none have deployed such systems alongside a live weather-aware conversational AI interface for end-user interaction. This paper presents FlightSense, an end-to-end MLOps platform for real-time flight delay prediction built through a progressive three-version feature engineering framework. Version 1 trains an XGBoost classifier on 11 schedule-based features establishing a baseline ROC AUC of 0.732 on 7.07 million BTS 2018 On-Time Performance records. Version 2 introduces 11 delay propagation features derived from aircraft rotation chains via tail-number tracking, yielding the dominant performance gain (AUC 0.732 to 0.875) and surpassing the single-stage XGBoost baseline reported by Zhou (2025). Version 3 integrates five NOAA meteorological features across 10 major U.S. airports, achieving a final test set AUC of 0.879. FlightSense is deployed as a production AWS MLOps pipeline incorporating live weather ingestion via Lambda, real-time SageMaker inference, an interactive Streamlit dashboard, and an Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro conversational assistant answering natural-language delay queries via a tool-use architecture.

Multimodal RAG systems increasingly rely on vision-language retrievers to ground visual queries in external textual evidence. Existing adversarial studies on RAG mainly manipulate the retrieval corpus or memory, while attacks on vision-language and remote sensing models typically target end-task predictions. Input-space threats to the evidence retrieval stage of remote sensing multimodal RAG remain underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce CloudWeb, an atmospheric retrieval hijacking attack that modifies only the input image while keeping the retriever, generator, and knowledge base fixed at deployment. CloudWeb overlays parameterized cloud- and haze-like patterns on remote sensing images and optimizes them with a retrieval-oriented objective that pulls adversarial image embeddings toward target atmospheric evidence, suppresses source-scene evidence, enforces rank separation, and regularizes naturalness and coverage. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of retrieval-stage atmospheric evidence hijacking in remote sensing multimodal RAG. We evaluate CloudWeb on a seven-dataset remote sensing RAG benchmark with five CLIP-style retrievers, including GeoRSCLIP, RemoteCLIP, OpenAI CLIP, and OpenCLIP, together with downstream vision-language generators. Across retrievers, CloudWeb consistently outperforms clean retrieval, handcrafted atmospheric baselines, random cloud perturbations, and fixed variants in injecting weather-related evidence into top-ranked results. On GeoRSCLIP ViT-B/32, Weather@5 increases from 0.71% to 43.29%. Downstream generation further shows measurable weather hallucination and semantic shift, indicating that retrieval-stage hijacking can propagate to the final RAG response. These findings reveal a practical failure mode: natural-looking atmospheric changes can compromise evidence retrieval before generation begins.

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) temperature forecasts, spanning several weeks to a few months, are critically needed in agriculture practice, energy planning, and extreme-weather induced risk management, yet their reliability varies substantially across seasons and regions. Forecast skill is often attributed primarily to lead time, but this perspective does not fully explain the spatiotemporal patterns of predictability. Here we show that S2S predictability is organized across interacting temporal components, spatial heterogeneity, and large-scale pattern coherence, and that this structure can be explicitly characterized and exploited. We develop a dual-scale learning framework that separates calendar-aligned historical climate context from lead-time matched recent weather evolution, combining them through spatially adaptive fusion to enable stable temperature forecasts across the 30 to 90-day window. The learned fusion weights reveal that the balance between these two temporal scales shifts systematically with season and geography: during winter, interannual context dominates over high latitudes and complex terrain where forecast is the most difficult, while summer predictions reflect a more balanced temporal contribution across the domain. This spatially explicit reorganization of predictability, rather than simple lead-time decay, emerges as the primary determinant of forecast skill within the subseasonal window. Topology-aware structural constraints further improve spatial coherence of predicted temperature fields, stabilizing large-scale pattern organization particularly over complex terrain. These results reframe S2S predictability as a structured, multi-scale phenomenon, providing a more interpretable foundation for improving forecast systems and informing their use in practice.

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.

Synthetic data has transformed language model training, yet its role in time series forecasting remains poorly understood. We present a large-scale empirical study: nine experiment groups, 4,218 runs systematically evaluating synthetic time series augmentation across five architectures, four synthetic signals and seven datasets. The effect is sharply architecture-conditional: channel-mixing models (TimesNet, iTransformer) benefit in the majority of trials, while channel-independent models (DLinear, PatchTST) are consistently degraded. In selected low-resource settings the gains are striking: TimesNet trained on only 10% of Weather data with synthetic augmentation surpasses the full-data baseline (4 of 16 sparsity-dataset combinations). Averaged across all architectures, augmentation hurts in 67% of trials. We further find that only the Seasonal-Trend generator reliably helps across the tested benchmarks, and that hard curriculum switching is actively harmful (+24% MSE degradation). These results provide concrete, actionable guidelines on how to use synthetic data: use synthetic augmentation with channel-mixing architectures, use gradual annealing schedules, and treat low-resource augmentation as architecture- and dataset-dependent. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/hugoiscracked/synthetic-ts/tree/main}

High-resolution rainfall observations are crucial for weather forecasting, water management, and hazard mitigation. Traditional operational measurements are often biased and low-resolution, limiting their ability to capture local rainfall. Accurate high-resolution rainfall maps require integrating sparse surface observations, yet existing deep learning densification methods are hindered by rainfall's skewed, localized nature, noise, and limited spatio-temporal fusion. We present DropsToGrid, a Neural Process-based method that generates dense rainfall fields by fusing temporal sequences from noisy, irregularly distributed private weather stations with spatial context from radar. Leveraging multi-scale feature extraction, temporal attention, and multi-modal fusion, the model produces stochastic, continuous rainfall estimates and explicitly quantifies uncertainty. Evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate that DropsToGrid outperforms both operational and deep learning baselines, generating accurate high-resolution rainfall maps with well-calibrated uncertainty, even when only few stations are available and in cross-regional scenarios.

Commercial Microwave Links (CMLs) offer dense spatial coverage for rainfall sensing but produce path-integrated measurements that make accurate ground-level reconstruction challenging. Existing methods typically oversimplify CMLs as point sensors and neglect line integration relating rainfall to signal attenuation, resulting in degraded performance under heterogeneous precipitation. In this work, we view rain field reconstruction as a Bayesian inverse problem with Diffusion Models (DMs) as high-fidelity spatial priors. We show that diffusion models better preserve key rainfall statistics compared to censored Gaussian processes. Framing rainfall estimation as a Bayesian inverse problem with a DM prior enables training-free posterior sampling using a broad family of methods, including Plug-and-Play, Sequential Monte Carlo, and Replica Exchange methods. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over established CML-based reconstruction baselines.

Wildfire burned-area mapping is essential for damage assessment, emissions modeling, and understanding fire-climate interactions across diverse ecological regions. Recent geospatial foundation models provide strong general-purpose representations for satellite imagery, yet there is still no clear understanding of how to efficiently adapt these models for downstream Earth observation tasks, particularly under geographic and temporal domain shift. This study evaluates three state-of-the-art Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) - Terramind, DINOv3, and Prithvi-v2 - for burned-area mapping across the United States and Canada using Sentinel-2 data. Leveraging 3,820 wildfire events from 2017-2023, we conduct spatial and temporal generalization tests across diverse biomes. We systematically compare full fine-tuning, decoder-only fine-tuning, and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for adapting each model. Across all experiments, LoRA provides the strongest cross-domain generalization while updating less than 1% of parameters, demonstrating a favorable trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. Prithvi-v2 with LoRA achieves the highest overall accuracy and the largest improvement compared to full fine-tuning. These findings indicate that geospatial foundation models, when adapted using lightweight parameter-efficient methods such as LoRA, offer a robust and scalable solution for large-scale burned-area mapping. Code is available at https://github.com/alishibli97/wildfire-lora-gfm.

Folk meteorological proverbs encode centuries of empirical observation by agricultural communities. Two Hebrew proverbs link lunar calendar anchor days to monthly winter rainfall: (i) "If Rosh Chodesh is rainy, the whole month is rainy" and (ii) "If it rains on Shabbat Mevarechim, the whole month is rainy." Shabbat Mevarechim is the last Saturday before each new Hebrew month, preceding Rosh Chodesh by one to seven days. The first proverb is widely known; the second circulates in Hasidic oral tradition with no identified written source. Both have never been formally tested. We analyse 75 years (1950-2024) of daily precipitation data from seven Israeli cities across three climatic regions, comprising 191,758 station-days and 2,422 Hebrew-month observations during the winter rainy season (Marcheshvan-Adar). A rainy Rosh Chodesh increases the probability of a rainy month from 22.2% to 38.6% (lift +16.4 percentage points; chi-square = 57.8, p = 2.9e-14; Bayes factor 1.81). A rainy Shabbat Mevarechim produces a similar effect (lift +16.5 percentage points, p = 8.0e-13), despite preceding Rosh Chodesh by up to seven days. The effect decays with lag and mirrors daily rainfall autocorrelation (r = 0.35-0.44 at lag 1; ~0 at lag 7), consistent with Mediterranean cyclone persistence. A bootstrap permutation test (p < 1e-4) and a 15-year rolling analysis show declining predictive power (-0.20 percentage points per year, p < 0.001), consistent with shortening precipitation events under warming climate conditions. Both proverbs encode real but probabilistic meteorological signals whose reliability is decreasing over time.

Climate classification plays a vital role in agricultural planning, hydrological studies, and climate science. One of the most widely used systems for classifying global climate zones is the Köppen-Trewartha (KT) classification. However, the KT classification is fundamentally deterministic, offering discrete labels to spatial locations without accounting for uncertainties in classification. In this paper, we provide a framework for probabilistic modeling of climatic zones. We implement a feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) for classification, allowing for efficient, uncertainty-aware categorization of climatic regions, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding of transitional climate zones compared to traditional deterministic methods. We apply this method to the Sahara Desert region over the 30-year period of 1960 - 1989, using data at more than 400,000 space-time locations from the first 11 years to train our model. We assess the model's short- and long-term classification capabilities to evaluate its stability and accuracy over time. We also compare the probabilistic classification from our model with the traditional KT classification. In addition, we use fluctuation analysis methods to highlight the temporal evolution of climatic zones across the Sahara region and identify areas undergoing significant flux of probabilities of their climate classes, providing insights into broader trends in desertification.

Nationwide road-incident forecasting is a systems problem before it is a modeling problem. A usable service must connect historical incident archives, historicalandliveweather,nationalroadgeometry, offline model training, tile generation, web serving and runtime handoff. This paper presents Road Risk Monitor, a U.S.-wide road-safety stack that combines a nationwide H3 baseline trained on FARS fatal-crash data with a road-segment forecasting pipeline trained from TIGER/Line geometry and US-Accidents events, then serves predictions through live APIs, raster tiles, JSON road tiles, and a public web application.

Large-scale restoration in drylands is widely promoted to address land degradation and biodiversity loss, yet many efforts rely on long-term irrigation, limiting sustainability in water-scarce regions. A key challenge is identifying locations where native vegetation can persist without intensive management while minimizing costly field campaigns. A scalable pre-screening framework is presented that integrates climate and remote sensing data to enable cost-efficient site selection in arid environments using Saudi Arabia as a case study. A Climate Suitability Score (CSS), derived from machine learning models trained on expert-curated reference sites, captures complex climatic dependencies on vegetation persistence. Using multi-year ERA5-Land data for Saudi Arabia, national-scale prediction maps are generated and combined with vegetation indices to identify areas where climate is favorable, but vegetation remains underdeveloped. Multi-criteria screening reduces candidates to thirteen priority locations. Climatically analogous intact ecosystems provide benchmarks for restoration targets and indicate that an average 2.5 fold increase in vegetation coverage is a realistic target for restoration efforts. Overall, this approach narrows the search space, reduces costs, and supports resilient ecosystem recovery planning in water-limited regions.

ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states compatible with boundary conditions of solar position and sea surface temperatures. Crucially, cBottle can be guided to generate extreme events such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over locations of interest. Diffusion models such as cBottle work by approximating the probability density of the training data. Here, we show use cases of the probability density estimates of atmospheric states obtained from this climate emulator. Most importantly, these estimates allow us to calculate likelihoods of extreme events under guidance. When guiding the model towards states including TCs, comparing the probability density under the guided and unguided model enables us to quantify how much more likely the guidance has made the TC. We show how these odds ratios allow us to importance-sample from the TC distribution, reducing the standard error of the probability estimate compared to simple Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, we discuss results and limitations of the application of model probability densities to extreme event attribution-like experiments. We present these early but encouraging results hoping they will spur more research into probabilistic information that can be gained from diffusion models of the atmosphere.

In studies of media coverage of extreme climate events, NLP methods have become indispensable for identifying relevant texts in large news databases. Still, enough annotated data to train accurate deep learning-based classifiers from scratch is often not available. Topic Models have the advantage of being both unsupervised and interpretable, but are typically used only for exploratory analysis or data characterisation. In this study, we investigate how to employ Topic Models as binary classifiers for refining the retrieval of relevant news about seven types of extreme climate events in the German media. Our method relies on the posterior distributions estimated by Topic Models to select relevant documents, without modifying their training procedure. Using an annotated sample to guide the evaluation, we show that the probabilities assigned to keywords used to query news databases can also be informative for selecting relevant topics and improve sample precision. We compare our results to a fine-tuned text embedding classifier and an open-weight LLM, discussing observed trade-offs, e.g. the LLM's lowest precision. Moreover, we show that results are hazard-dependent, which speaks against considering climate events as a single category in NLP tasks.

Atmospheric correction is a critical preprocessing step in optical remote sensing, but repeated high-fidelity radiative transfer simulations remain computationally expensive for dense look-up-table generation, sensitivity analysis, retrieval support, and operational preprocessing. This study presents a physics-aware multi-fidelity surrogate framework for emulating atmospheric correction coefficients using paired 6S and libRadtran simulations. Atmospheric and geometric states are sampled using Latin Hypercube Sampling, and both radiative transfer models are evaluated under matched conditions for Sentinel-2 bands using spectral-response-function-aware coefficient generation. The high-fidelity targets are path reflectance, total transmittance, and spherical albedo. A physics-guided Kolmogorov-Arnold Network, termed pKANrtm, receives the atmospheric state and low-fidelity 6S coefficients, predicts the residual relative to libRadtran, and reconstructs the high-fidelity coefficients. The pKANrtm model uses an Efficient-KAN architecture and is trained with a physics-consistency penalty applied in the original coefficient space. The proposed model is evaluated against state-of-the-art regression-based RTM surrogates. Across both standard and out-of-distribution evaluation settings, pKANrtm achieves the strongest overall predictive performance among the compared models. Runtime benchmarking demonstrates substantial acceleration relative to libRadtran, with GPU inference providing approximately four orders of magnitude single-sample speedup and batched inference reaching tens of thousands of samples per second. These results indicate that physics-aware multi-fidelity pKANrtm emulation provides an accurate, physically structured, and computationally efficient strategy for atmospheric correction coefficient generation.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as a promising framework for integrating data-driven learning with physical knowledge. In this work, we propose a coupled PINN approach for the joint reconstruction of indoor temperature and humidity dynamics in greenhouse environments, together with simultaneous identification of key model parameters. The method incorporates a reduced-order physically motivated model into the learning process, enabling consistent estimation under sparse and noisy observations. The artificial intelligence contribution lies in the development of a coupled physics-informed neural learning framework that integrates governing dynamical constraints into neural network training, while the engineering application focuses on greenhouse climate state reconstruction and parameter identification. The proposed framework is evaluated on a controlled synthetic benchmark that mimics diurnal forcing conditions. Compared with a purely data-driven neural network baseline, the coupled PINN achieves improved reconstruction accuracy, reducing temperature and humidity errors while maintaining high coefficients of determination. The improvement is particularly pronounced in the humidity channel, where latent moisture dynamics are more difficult to infer from limited measurements. In addition to accurate state reconstruction, the method successfully recovers the dominant physical parameters governing the system dynamics, demonstrating its ability to learn interpretable representations beyond data interpolation. These results highlight the potential of physics-informed learning for greenhouse climate modeling and, more broadly, for data-scarce environmental systems.

Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical that such models be properly verified before deployment. Although AI weather models are rapidly evolving, much of their evaluation is currently done either with a global-scale evaluation or by hand-picking a small number of case studies or a region. A widely-used open-source benchmark suite focusing on high-impact weather will help to drive the science forward for all scales of weather models, as it has for other AI fields. Here we introduce Extreme Weather Bench (EWB), a new community-driven benchmark suite that facilitates model validation and verification on a variety of high-impact hazards that matter to people around the globe. EWB provides a standard set of case studies (spanning across multiple spatial and temporal scales and different parts of the weather spectrum), observational data, impact-based metrics, and open-source code for users to evaluate their models. Verifying that a model works against a standard set of case studies, especially events that are high-impact for the general public, is a key piece of improving the trustworthiness of AI models. EWB will help to drive the science forward for all weather models, enabling true comparisons across models and evaluating models on specific high-impact phenomena through the use of case studies. EWB is a free open-source community-driven system and will continue to evolve to include additional phenomena, test cases and metrics in collaboration with the worldwide weather and forecast verification community.

The performance of state-of-the-art object detectors degrades significantly under adverse weather, causing a safety-critical domain shift problem for autonomous vehicles. Recent efforts address this problem by relying on synthetic data to train the object detectors, which limits their real-world applicability. Meanwhile, pseudo-labeling is widely used for cross-dataset domain adaptation problems. However, these methods have not been exploited by weather-based domain adaptation approaches due to the noisy nature of such labels generated under harsh weather conditions. In this paper, we propose two new approaches to mitigate this weather-induced domain shift. First, we propose a Weather-Induced pseudo Label Denoising (WILD) framework that filters noisy pseudo labels generated by real data captured under adverse weather conditions. Second, we develop a novel hybrid training methodology, WILD SAM, that exploits both pseudo-label denoising and simulation-based training solutions while using real-data from the target harsh-weather domain. We validate both proposed approaches, WILD and WILD SAM, on the recently released Four Seasons dataset across rainy and snowy scenarios. Experiments show that the proposed frameworks improve Average Precision (AP) up to 13% and significantly reduce the weather-induced performance gap relative to the baseline. The code is available at: https://github.com/Kh-Hamed/WILD-SAM

Earth system science is producing increasingly large, high-dimensional datasets from both physics-based and AI-driven models. While embedding-based representations make these data searchable and serve as foundational building blocks for AI-driven discovery engines, nearest neighbors in latent spaces are not automatically scientifically meaningful. They may reflect real meteorological structures, or simply artifacts of preprocessing, geography, or model bias. Researchers therefore need visual tools to inspect latent space organization, trace search results back to physical evidence, and evaluate candidate representations against one another. We present an open source visual analytics workbench designed to support this provenance-aware scientific retrieval workflow. The system links distinct embedding experiments to shared source data, metadata, spatial contexts, and model configurations. It enables interactive retrieval strategy design by allowing users to issue image-level and localized patch-level queries, apply multi-constraint filters, and inspect analogs through familiar meteorological views. This facilitates a discovery loop where scientists characterize a phenomenon in a well-understood dataset and use its latent signature to probe larger archives. While we demonstrate the workbench through a tropical cyclone retrieval scenario using a vision foundation model (DINOv3) on ERA5 data, the framework is model-agnostic and designed to integrate with other embedding architectures in the future. Finally, we evaluate its out-of-core retrieval backend, demonstrating that interactive visual search over tens of millions of embeddings is highly scalable on commodity hardware.

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieval is essential for Earth observation, supporting applications from air quality monitoring to climate studies. Conventional physics-based AOD retrieval methods formulate the problem as a pixel-wise inversion, relying on radiative transfer modeling, memory-intensive look-up tables, and auxiliary meteorological data. While recent data-driven approaches have shown promise, many fail to exploit the spatial-spectral coherence of hyperspectral imagery, leading to spatially inconsistent and noise-sensitive retrievals. We present the first study exploring Foundation AI models for AOD retrieval and propose ViTCG, a Vision Transformer with Channel-wise Grouping-based spatial regression framework that reduces retrieval bias and error. ViTCG uses hyperspectral top-of-atmosphere radiance as input and jointly models spatial context and spectral information. Validation with PACE radiance observations demonstrates a 62% reduction in mean squared error compared to state-of-the-art foundation models, including Prithvi, and produces spatially coherent AOD fields.

Causal graph discovery for space-time systems is challenging in high-dimensional gridded data, which often has many more grid cells than temporal observations per cell. The Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe) meta-algorithm was developed to address that niche under space-time locality and stationarity assumptions, but it is currently limited to univariate analyses. In this work, we present M-CaStLe. M-CaStLe generalizes the local embedding and parent-identification phases of CaStLe to jointly model local within-variable and cross-variable space-time causal structures in gridded data. Like CaStLe, by constraining candidate parents to a constant-size space-time neighborhood and pooling spatial replicates, M-CaStLe increases effective sample size to make discovery tractable in high-dimensional settings. We further decompose the resulting multivariate stencil graph into reaction and spatial graphs to aid interpretation in complex settings. We study M-CaStLe in four settings: a multivariate space-time vector autoregression benchmark with known ground truth, an advective-diffusive-reaction partial differential equation verification problem with derived physical reference structure, an atmospheric chemistry case study in a low-temporal-sample regime, and an El Niño Southern Oscillation study on reanalysis data, identifying phase-dependent ocean--atmosphere coupling. Across these settings, M-CaStLe more accurately recovers multivariate causal structure in controlled settings and identifies important physical dynamics in real-world case studies. Overall, M-CaStLe advances causal discovery for multivariate space-time systems while retaining interpretability at the grid level.

Federated weather modeling on sensor data is a distributed system underpinned by federated learning, enabling multiple sensor data sources, including ground weather stations, satellites and IoT devices, to collaboratively train deep learning models without sharing raw data. This method safeguards data privacy and security while leverages diverse, geographically distributed datasets to improve the accuracy and robustness of global/regional weather modeling tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection.

As climate extreme and disaster events become more frequent and intense, Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) has emerged as a transformative approach for large-scale disaster mapping and risk reduction. However, the purely mechanical, performance-driven deployment of GeoAI models can result in amplifying inherent spatial inequalities, preventing effective emergency decision-making, and producing severe environmental carbon footprint. To unbox the concept of responsible GeoAI, this position paper examines its emerging role, e.g., in climate extreme and disaster mapping, from a critical GIS perspective. We address the nexus of responsible GeoAI into four interrelated theoretical dimensions, specifically Representativeness, Explainability, Sustainability, and Ethics, with examples from climate extreme and disaster mapping. Moreover, targeting at the operational practice, we then propose a conceptual governance Model of responsible GeoAI that categorizes its governance practices into Data, Application, and Society scopes. Last, this position paper aims to raise the attention in the broader GIS community that the future of climate resilience relies not just on building better algorithms, but on fostering a governance ecosystem where GeoAI is deployed responsibly, ethically, and sustainably.

Machine-learned surrogate modeling of advection may accelerate geoscientific models, but existing approaches have either achieved limited speedup or have sacrificed spatial resolution compared to the model they are trained to emulate. We developed a machine-learned solver that speeds up advection simulations without sacrificing spatial resolution through the use of temporal coarse-graining, where the model is trained to take larger integration steps than dictated by the Courant-Friedrich-Lewy (CFL) condition. Our solver framework includes a convolutional neural network that takes concentrations and CFL numbers as inputs and outputs mass flux. Our solvers emulate 10-day ground-level horizontal advection simulations with r$^2$ values against the baseline ranging from 0.60--0.98 with temporal coarsening factors of 4 to 32 times the baseline integration time step. Speed increases and accuracy decreases with increased coarsening, with $r^2 = 0.24$ in accuracy lost for every factor of 10 gained in speed, reaching a maximum 92$\times$ speedup while maintaining $r^2 = 0.60$. We deliberately trained our solvers only on January ground-level wind data to examine their ability to generalize across seasons and vertical heights. The 4$\times$-coarsened learned solver successfully reproduces simulations over 72 vertical levels. The 8$\times$--16$\times$ solvers (but not 32$\times$) emulate most vertical levels. The learned solvers also generalize well across seasons, except for instabilities in June and October. With additional fine-tuning, these learned solvers could be appropriate for operational use where trading accuracy for speed could be advantageous, such as in screening tools, in ensemble simulations, or with data assimilation.

The pervasive growth of digital content, specifically short videos on social media platforms, has significantly altered how topics are discussed and understood in public discourse. In this work, we advance automated visual theme detection by assessing zero-shot and clustering capabilities on social media data. (1) We evaluated the capabilities of notable VLMs such as VideoChatGPT, PandaGPT, and VideoLLava using zero-shot image classification and compared their performance to the baseline provided by frame-wise CLIP image classification. (2) By treating clustering as a minimum cost multicut problem, we aim to uncover insightful patterns in an unsupervised manner. For both analysis strategies, we provide extensive evaluations and practical guidance to practitioners. While VLMs are currently not able to detect climate change specific classes, the clustering results are distinct visual frames. %Given that VLMs are not currently capable to grasp the climate change discourse, we focus the clustering evaluation of image embedding models. We find that both ConvNeXt V2 and DINOv2 produce meaningful clusters, with DINOv2 focusing more on style differences and abstract categories, while ConvNeXt V2 clusters differ in more fine-grained ways. Code available at https://github.com/KathPra/ClimateVID.git.

Large-scale IoT weather sensing networks require incentive mechanisms to sustain participation, yet determining how much value individual data contributions bring to the network remains an open problem. Existing approaches address data quality but not data valuation; in operational meteorology, adjoint-based methods derive value from the forecast model itself but require full data assimilation infrastructure. We propose to utilise differentiable AI weather models to fill this gap and characterise gradient-based attribution on gridded GFS analysis inputs as a candidate value signal, evaluating fidelity, calibration, cost, and gaming vulnerability across more than 400 configurations. Attribution captures near-optimal sensor placement utility with monotonically faithful payments, but can be inflated by adversarial inputs, with detection requiring external baseline data. These findings establish gradient attribution as a computationally validated signal for model-informed reward allocation in participatory weather sensing.

Operational weather prediction has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP), whose accuracy comes at the cost of substantial compute and complex simulation workflows. Recent transformer-based forecasters offer efficient data-driven alternatives, however transformers are physics-agnostic models. Additionally, standard transformer encoders evolve representations through discrete layer updates that may be less suited to modeling smooth latent dynamics. In this work, we propose a continuous-depth transformer encoder for weather forecasting that integrates Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) dynamics within each encoder block. Specifically, we replace discrete residual updates with ODE-based updates solved using adaptive numerical integration. We also introduce a two-branch attention module that combines conventional patch-wise self-attention with an auxiliary branch that applies a derivative operator to attention logits, providing an additional change-sensitive interaction signal. To further align forecasts with governing principles, we propose a customized physics-informed training objective that enforces physical consistency as a soft constraint. We evaluate the proposed method against a standard discrete transformer baseline and an existing continuous-time Neural ODE forecasting variant, demonstrating the importance of PINN-Cast in short term weather forecasting.