Theoretical Foundations

Stabilization learning is an interdisciplinary paradigm that bridges control theory and machine learning. Its core idea is to enable systems to adjust their policies under perturbations or environmental changes through real-time feedback and adaptive mechanisms. It takes stability as its primary goal, distinguishing itself from certificate learning, which focuses on formal proofs, and reinforcement learning, which pursues optimality. It encompasses a range of methods, including Lyapunov-based analysis and design, deep feature extraction, and data-driven feedback synthesis, and is applicable to complex high-dimensional, nonlinear systems. This paper elaborates on the two major categories of stability in stabilization learning, as well as three typical application scenarios: control, observation, and recognition. It constructs a unified mathematical framework based on a six-tuple, and expands into two types of seven-tuple models: constrained learning with barrier spaces and tracking problems with targets. It also analyzes the roles, meanings, and implementation choices of key elements such as state space, controlled system, metrics, and policy. Through the formal reformulation of 11 types of problems, including multi-agent cooperative tracking, visual servo robot position stabilization, chess games, and Push-T tasks, this paper illustrates the potential applicability of the framework across multiple domains. Finally, it points out that future stabilization learning will focus on two major directions: constructing a unified problem framework and achieving efficient and robust learning, providing solutions for complex system control that combine theoretical rigor with engineering practicality.

The number of trees is a central computational parameter in Random Forests: increasing it reduces finite-ensemble variability but increases training and prediction cost. Plateau-based tuning adapts this parameter through local comparisons of out-of-bag scores at a geometric triplet of tree counts. After the remaining hyperparameters have stabilized, however, the central triplet point need not converge to a deterministic value; instead, it fluctuates around a stationary regime. This paper develops a stationary-distribution theory for this process. The central ensemble size $B_t$ is modeled as a birth-death Markov chain on a geometric grid, and its stationary distribution is derived through local balance. Under a leading centered folded-normal approximation, equilibrium equations are obtained for the original update rule and a symmetric modified variant, implying that the stationary center $B_*=O(\varepsilon^{-2})$ as $\varepsilon\downarrow 0$. The stationary spread is also characterized. A local Gaussian approximation and a Fokker-Planck interpretation give grid-level variance constants. After conversion to the ensemble-size scale, $σ_{B,*}=O(\varepsilon^{-2})$, while the variance is $O(\varepsilon^{-4})$. The leading relative spread is independent of $\varepsilon$ and controlled by the scale factor and update rule. These results interpret plateau-based Random Forest tuning as a stochastic process rather than a deterministic stopping rule.

Delayed generalization (\ie~grokking) refers to the phenomenon in which a neural network fits its training data early in training but only begins to generalize after a prolonged delay, often through an abrupt transition. Despite extensive empirical study, its underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. In this work, we first theoretically characterize a shell--core topological configuration of the reachable solution space induced by Adam's optimization dynamics with weight-shrinkage regularization, supported by empirical evidence. This optimization-induced topological configuration gives rise to grokking. In model's parameter space, random initialization solutions concentrate on a thin outer spherical shell, enclosing another spherical shell of memorization solutions, which in turn contains a core corresponding to the generalization solutions. Leveraging stopping-time theory, we then analyze the geometry of this topological configuration and the solution transition time at which optimization trajectories escape the memorization manifold and first reach the boundary of the generalization manifold. Our theoretical analysis derives grokking scaling laws for the learning rate, batch size, and $\ell_2$ regularization coefficient, which are further validated through experiments and shown to recover results from prior literature.

Speculative decoding accelerates language model inference by using a fast drafter to propose candidate tokens that are then verified by a larger target model. Existing theory largely studies the stochastic, distribution-preserving setting, where the goal is to exactly sample from the target distribution. In contrast, many practical systems use greedy decoding, relaxed acceptance rules, or tree-based candidate sets, where success is governed by local ranking and threshold events rather than exact distributional equality. We develop a theory for these regimes. We identify that many common acceptance criteria have rejection regions that can be characterized as lower level sets of the target distribution. For these, we characterize the exact KL divergence required for rejection yielding exact certificates and sharp margin-based bounds for strict greedy decoding, additive and multiplicative relaxed acceptance, top-(m) relaxed criteria, and entropy-thresholded acceptance. We then extend the framework to greedy tree decoding, deriving exact and margin-only certificates for when the target greedy token remains covered by the drafter's top-(m) candidates. Finally, we evaluate the resulting certificates on Qwen3 models, showing that relaxed and tree-based criteria substantially enlarge the region of certified acceptance, especially on decoding steps with low target model distribution margin. These results complement existing distribution-preserving analyses of speculative decoding by characterizing the deterministic local acceptance events common in practical inference systems.

Decision theory provides a formal framework for how agents should make choices under uncertainty, drawing on ideas from philosophy, probability, and causality. Despite significant progress, the field still lacks a unified modeling language, and key concepts - such as the distinction between subjective and objective elements, or what it means for a decision theory to perform well - are often left implicit. This can make it difficult to evaluate and compare competing theories, particularly in controversial cases. In this paper, we address these issues by introducing a formal framework for decision theory based on nonparametric structural equation models (NPSEMs), a well-established tool in causal inference. NPSEMs provide a unified foundation for representing agents, counterfactuals, and causal relationships, allowing for unambiguous definitions of EDT and CDT. Building on this foundation, we propose a novel decision theory - personal decision theory - which instructs agents to maximize a subjective model of their own counterfactual utility. We introduce a formal performance metric based on hypothetical interventions that enforce a given decision theory across a population - such as might be achieved through education or policy -- and show that, under certain assumptions, personal decision theory is optimal with respect to this metric. Throughout, we use the smoking lesion problem as a running example and conclude with a formal analysis of Newcomb's problem. Our aim is to provide decision theory with a clearer modeling language and firmer evaluative ground, thereby enabling more rigorous comparisons and facilitating conceptual progress in the field.

Continual learning (CL), where a model is trained on a sequence of data tasks, is increasingly being adopted across key fields such as large language models and image recognition, yet it remains highly vulnerable to data poisoning that triggers learning divergence or severe excess risk. Despite these threats, a principled theoretical foundation in CL for understanding attack and defense remains lacking. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework to analyze strategic attacks and defenses in regularization-based CL, a cornerstone of recent CL theory. By framing the adversary-defender interaction as an online zero-sum game, we first establish a fundamental performance limit: no defense succeeds when an adversary poisons a linear proportion of tasks by injecting unbounded noise or pattern shifts in regularization-based CL. We then analyze two possibly defensible scenarios: infrequent attacks and bounded noise per attack. For the former regime, we propose a task-to-task verification mechanism to detect data poisoning and reduce cumulative bias for learning convergence. For the latter regime, we derive a robust defense that minimizes the model's sensitivity to poisoned features, provably accelerating the convergence rate. Extensive experiments on realistic tasks further validate our theoretical results.

Outlier detection (OD) aims to identify anomalous instances by learning the underlying structure of normal data (inliers), and is particularly challenging in fully unsupervised settings where no information about anomalies is available during training. Recent advances have leveraged the inlier-memorization (IM) effect, a phenomenon in which deep models memorize inlier patterns earlier than those of outliers, as a powerful signal for distinguishing outliers. However, despite its empirical success, the theoretical understanding of the IM effect remains limited. In this work, we present a theoretical study of the IM effect. Focusing on a simple autoencoder, we show that, under mild assumptions, the model can successfully memorize inliers while failing to memorize outliers during certain stages of early training. In particular, we characterize not only the emergence of the IM effect, but also its strength and persistence, and analyze how these properties depend on the data distribution and parameter initialization. In addition, building on these insights, we derive simple yet practical guidelines for enhancing the IM effect, including data preprocessing and parameter initialization schemes, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the ADBench datasets. Our findings provide a theoretical foundation for the IM effect and offer actionable directions for improving IM-based outlier detection methods.

Bogomolny, Bohigas and Schmit (BBS) found that the spectrum of the pairwise distance matrix on N points sampled from a smooth d-dimensional manifold encodes a signature of the underlying geometry. We develop I-BBS (Inference-BBS), a coordinate-free method that identifies a low-dimensional latent sub-manifold embedded in a high-dimensional ambient distance matrix alone, without accessing an ambient high-dimensional vector space. It therefore applies even when that space is only partly observable or undefined. We model the ambient embedding by two classes of generative noise, model-based and model-free. The noise mixes the latent signal with off-manifold components, so the eigenvalues reorganise collectively and the latent geometry cannot be read off eigenvalue by eigenvalue. We recover it instead from two integer-stable signatures that survive the noise: the multiplicity of the top non-Perron multiplet, which fixes $d$, and a parameter-free law for how the multiplet positions shrink as the noise grows. On synthetic spheres $S^1$, $S^2$ and $S^3$ these integer signatures are far more stable under noise than the continuous spectral slope, and a blind test recovers both the manifold and the noise model from a single distance matrix. Applications to neural-network representations and to the dynamic training regime are developed in two companion papers.

In-context learning (ICL) is an emerging paradigm that employs the semantic information inherent in large language models (LLMs) for generating answers to user queries. While the remarkable performance of ICL has been widely known, a general modeling and a rigorous theoretical analysis of this paradigm are still lacking. This work presents a probabilistic model for ICL and derives the performance of ICL for both general parametric distributions and exponential families. Based on the derived results, the work explains the impact of multiple factors such as the number of demonstrations, the sensitivity of the probabilistic model to the variation of its parameters, as well as the similarity between the demonstrations and the query on the performance of ICL.

AI-based scientific automation is increasingly possible by using agents to generate hypotheses, design experiments, and analyze data. Data collection is a major bottleneck in this pipeline, however. Psychology, and computational cognitive science in particular, is well-positioned to benefit from AI experimentation because theories are often represented as code and crowdsourcing platforms enable programmatic human data collection at scale. Here, we apply automated discovery techniques to the project of generating theories in computational cognitive science, with an agent-based system collecting human data independently through crowdsourced survey experiments. As a testbed, we use a classic case study from cognitive psychology: judging which sequences of coin flips seem subjectively more random. Our system, auto-psych, uses nested agent-based discovery loops to generate explanatory theories of human behavior. The inner loop conjectures, fits, and critiques probabilistic cognitive models; the outer loop designs experiments to test these models, launches them online, and analyzes the data. This system can quickly and reliably recover ground-truth theories from synthetic data via systematic experimentation, but the nested structure is critical to model performance. Further, in three independent sequences of human experiments, the system finds theories that fit the data better than theories generated from the scientific literature. This work thus demonstrates the feasibility of automated data collection and theory discovery in computational cognitive science.

Across the sciences, autonomous systems are increasingly being used in closed-loop discovery, proposing new theories and designing and running experiments to test them. This approach is yet to be applied in the field of cognitive science, where the central bottleneck is theory-building: the creative step of turning the accumulated failures of existing models into better ones. Theory generation has remained manual even as data collection, modeling, and experiment design have been automated. We present the Automated Cognitive Scientist (AutoCog), a fully autonomous agentic-AI system that closes this loop. Large-language-model agents advocate competing theories, each expressed as an executable cognitive model, design experiments that best discriminate them, collect behavioral data from participants recruited online, score theories against collected data based on their generative performance, diagnose why they fail, and synthesize a better successor. Repeating this cycle allows them to search the space of theories, models, and experiments. In the domain of decision-making, AutoCog recovered known decision-making strategies from simulated behavior, including unconventional ones, showing that its discoveries are ultimately driven by the data rather than strictly bound by the priors of the underlying language models. When run with human participants, it produced theories that outperformed the established theories it was seeded with and generalized to held-out studies in two different experimental settings. It also surfaced a novel theory of multi-cue decision-making in which choices show diminishing sensitivity to feature values. The distinctive predictions of this theory were confirmed in a preregistered study with new participants. AutoCog demonstrates how an automated discovery system can be used to turn cognitive theory-building into an explicit, executable, and cumulative science.

We develop a spectral theory for \emph{normalized corrected GNN propagation}. The object of study is the symmetric normalized adjacency with its degree-stationary component removed, matching the normalization used by standard GCN-style models while isolating the stationary direction most directly tied to oversmoothing. The central theoretical question is whether this corrected normalized operator preserves class-discriminative signal after many propagation layers. Our main result is a high-probability exact-recovery theorem for the binary Contextual Stochastic Block Model after $k=O(\log n)$ propagation steps in the dense polylogarithmic regime $p\ge C\log^B n/n$, for any fixed $B>4$, under explicit graph-signal and feature-SNR conditions. We also establish a multi-class partial recovery theorem showing contraction toward class centers for most nodes. Synthetic and real node-classification experiments are included as empirical checks of the theory's predicted dependence on depth, graph signal, and feature noise.

Agency is often invoked in research on philosophy, biology, and cognitive science without a clear account of how it originates from material organization. Building on temporally parametrized (F, A)-systems, this paper develops a graded organizational theory of agency grounded in relational biology, physical biosemiotics, and process ontology. We argue that self-referential closure cannot be adequately conceived outside time: once the constitutive processes of a semantically closed organization are associated with distinct characteristic timescales, the organization unfolds into an out-of-sync dependency structure that can be formally redescribed as a history-dependent, revisable Asynchronous Dynamic Bayesian Network. This move allows for a principled distinction between autonomy, goal-directedness, agency, and open-endedness. Autonomy arises from precarious closure to efficient causation under material openness; goal-directedness from the maintenance of viability-supporting organization; agency appears when such organization acquires an endogenous anticipatory structure that selectively modulates organism-environment coupling in light of possible futures; open-endedness begins when this anticipatory organization can reconstruct its own future space of possibilities. Our framework reconciles Rosennean anticipation with organizational closure, restricts Markov blankets and active inference to derived formal redescriptions rather than first principles, and reinterprets computational enactivism in non-Fristonian terms. By deriving weaker temporalized organizations, our contribution outlines a hierarchy from proto-agential chemical systems to fully semantically closed agents, with implications for multicellular organisms, synthetic lifeforms, and neuroscience.

Modeling soft robot dynamics is challenging due to their continuum structure and typically nonlinear dynamics. Creating models based on first-order principles is typically time-demanding, and their expressiveness is limited, whereas data-driven models lack interpretability and physical consistency. This work aims to overcome these challenges by introducing a port-Hamiltonian Gaussian Process Regression framework for learning and simulating the dynamics of planar, rod-like soft robots. In detail, the proposed model integrates Cosserat rod theory and Hamiltonian physics with data-driven inference to preserve the system's energy structure while accurately learning the rod dynamics. Numerical simulations show that we can achieve accurate and energy-consistent representations of a rod-like soft robot, showing the potential for a robust and interpretable pathway for modeling complex continuum mechanics.

In speech processing, most state-of-the-art sequence prediction models rely on auto-regressive (AR) strategies to generate output sequences based on the raw predictions of the model. Despite their crucial role in the inference process, a comprehensive overview of AR strategies as a unified field is lacking, due largely to implicit and multiple definitions of next-token decoding. This context complicates the choice, comparison, and evaluation of strategies, while creating inconsistencies in the characterization of approaches as auto-regressive or not. We begin by setting explicit inclusion criteria for the field of AR search in speech processing, and derive a generalized theoretical framework to categorize and report on search strategies for neural models. We show the capabilities of this formalism in simplifying the design of benchmarks centered around the decoding process, allowing for ablation studies that are focused on search strategies.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection in dynamic open-world environments requires a model to continually adapt to evolving data distributions while generalizing to covariate-shifted inputs and rejecting semantic-shifted OOD examples. Most existing OOD detection methods optimize only the current-step objective and do not explicitly account for how post-deployment environment changes affect future OOD behavior. In this paper, we establish a theoretical grounding for dynamic OOD detection using a reinforcement learning (RL)-guided optimizer that explicitly favors updates that reduce the semantic OOD false positive rate over time. We develop a novel augmented optimizer that uses an RL-guided correction term on top of standard gradient descent (GD) and show its improvement over both future-domain generalization and semantic-OOD rejection. We analyze temporal error decomposition in terms of model-change and environment-change generalization errors and develop a new theoretical framework for comparing the generalization errors under both GD and RL-guided optimizers.

Theory of mind (ToM), the capacity to ascribe mental states to others and use those ascriptions for prediction and inference, is widely assumed to be essential for effective human-machine integration. Existing AI-ToM models address \emph{how} to mentalize, but leave the question of when largely unaddressed. The central question is: under what situational and agent-level conditions is ToM engagement causally warranted in conflict? This paper presents a structural causal model formalized as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), treating ToM as a mechanism activated by situational and agent-level conditions rather than as an always-on capacity. The model specifies four exogenous variables capturing situational and agent-level conditions, five endogenous mediators, and a mechanistic ToM node producing engagement states through three distinct causal pathways: a tractability pathway, a reasoning-depth pathway, and an enabling-cause pathway. The primary outcome is epistemic accuracy, which decouples social reasoning from behavioral policy and generalizes across social phenomena beyond conflict. The framework gives AI systems a principled, resource-rational decision procedure for mentalizing, with implications for efficiency, trust, and the development of robust artificial social intelligence. Simulation validation, empirical human-machine teaming studies, and ethical considerations arising from conflict-optimized mentalizing are discussed.

The Edge of Stability (EoS) phenomenon, where gradient descent operates with sharpness exceeding the classical convergence threshold yet the loss decreases over long timescales, is ubiquitous in modern deep learning but remains poorly understood in realistic settings. Prior rigorous analyses have been largely confined to scalar or low-dimensional losses with specific structural forms. In this work, we develop a bifurcation theory framework for gradient descent on the edge of stability that applies directly to overparameterized neural networks. By decomposing the training dynamics into components normal and tangent to the manifold of minimizers, we show that stable EoS training arises from a flip bifurcation in the normal direction, governed by the sign of the first Lyapunov coefficient, while the tangent dynamics drift toward regions of decreasing sharpness. Under mild spectral and geometric assumptions on the loss landscape, we prove convergence to the minimizing manifold when training at the EoS threshold. As a corollary, we recover and unify prior results: we show that the product-stability condition of Gan (2026) is an instance of our framework.

Continual vision-language models are commonly addressed through sequential fine-tuning; however, although this paradigm enables adaptation to new environments (tasks), it inherently emphasizes the contribution of previously learned environments (tasks) at the expense of the stability required to preserve previously acquired knowledge. While existing approaches have adequately studied continual learning and catastrophic forgetting in vision-language models (VLMs), the theoretical understanding of modality-specific contributions across a sequence of environments remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a new theoretical perspective to understand the cross-modal (vision-language) contributions to consecutive environments. We empirically evaluate our theoretical findings on large VLMs and demonstrate their effectiveness in capturing environment-level cross-modal contributions. Our analysis provides deeper insights into continual VLMs, highlighting their contribution robustness to varying task orders and inter-task similarities, and their improved generalization performance.

Non-Euclidean optimisation methods with matrix-valued updates, such as Muon and Scion, have recently shown strong empirical performance for training Transformer models, yet their theoretical advantages over Euclidean methods remain poorly understood. We address this gap in the heavy-tailed non-convex regime, where stochastic gradients have bounded $p$-th central moments, $p \in (1,2]$. We show that certain non-Euclidean methods achieve optimal sample complexity under stronger stationarity measures, while Euclidean methods incur additional dimension-dependent costs. As a consequence, for $m \times n$ matrices, Muon finds an $\varepsilon$-stationary point in nuclear norm within $\mathcal{O}\left(\min\{m, n\} \frac{Δ_1 L}{\varepsilon^2} \left(\frac σ\varepsilon \right)^{\frac p {p-1}}\right)$ samples, absorbing heavy-tailed noise without extra dimension dependence, unlike Euclidean methods. We further prove this sample complexity, including its dimension dependence, is optimal for all first-order methods under nuclear-norm stationarity. Experiments on large language models support our theory. Surprisingly, our results suggest that other Schatten geometries beyond the spectral geometry of Muon can perform competitively in certain settings.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) layers enable the scaling of transformer models while keeping the inference compute fixed. While task-expert specialization has been observed in empirical studies of frontier MoE transformer models, existing theoretical work analyzes this using continuous mixture models that cannot be used to model natural language effectively. An important open question is to \textit{theoretically explain task-expert specialization in transformer MoE models using discrete models of language}. To address this, we represent structured knowledge via syntactic templates and finite key-value dictionaries, and prove formally that a single-layer MoE transformer can encode knowledge by using experts that specialize in the corresponding tasks. Our construction shows how queries are routed to unique, task-specific experts whose size depends solely on the intrinsic complexity of the given task (i.e. the combined size of its syntactic templates and factual dictionary). Our construction provides a theoretical support for empirical results on localized knowledge circuits in MoE models. We support our theoretical findings with experiments evaluating model performance under varying MoE loss functions.

Scientific discovery saturates when new hypotheses cease to provide independent information, even if the nominal hypothesis space remains large. We study hybrid discovery systems that combine structured local search with LLM-generated non-local proposals and pose the Search Compression Hypothesis: non-local exploration helps only when three geometric conditions co-occur: spectral compression, orthogonal escape from the explored span, and residual signal alignment with the target. We formalize these conditions, derive necessary conditions for hybrid advantage, and test the mechanism in controlled synthetic environments, large-scale A-share factor discovery, and symbolic-regression benchmarks; a public tabular operational sanity check tests the associated budget-allocation implication. Signal-planting and directed-versus-random experiments show that novelty alone is insufficient: random orthogonal jumps expand coverage but do not improve yield without predictive alignment. Across compression sweeps, real factor archives, and LLM-SRBench tasks, hybrid gains concentrate in weakly represented but target-bearing directions and vanish as the hypothesis space approaches full rank. The framework turns LLM-guided discovery from generic novelty search into a diagnostic procedure for deciding when directed non-local exploration is warranted.

Population-based and distributional optimization methods, from evolution strategies and consensus-based optimization to covariance-matrix adaptation and stochastic gradient methods viewed as distributional dynamics, are widely used for nonconvex or black-box problems, yet their convergence analyses remain fragmented across algorithm-specific techniques. We introduce an operator calculus in which a broad class of such methods, after choosing an appropriate state space and, where necessary, augmenting the state by memory or strategy variables, is described as a composition of three elementary operators (mutation, selection, and recombination) acting on probability measures. Under explicit stability and regularity conditions, the composite operator admits a pre-generator whose continuous-time limit is a transport-reaction-jump (TRJ) PDE that preserves the operator splitting. On this foundation we establish a modular Lyapunov principle. If a state-space Lyapunov function both dissipates under the full generator and controls the relevant search-space gauges, then the state-space Lyapunov functional and the induced search errors decay exponentially. The additive generator structure allows dissipation estimates to be assembled operator by operator, providing a toolkit for certifying convergence of composite mean-field algorithms.

We develop a statistical learning theory for gradient boosting applied to the estimation of covariate-dependent Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions in the context of Peaks-over-Threshold modeling. After an orthogonal reparametrization of the GP likelihood that diagonalizes its Fisher information matrix, we cast the estimation problem within the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework and derive non-asymptotic error bounds for the boosting estimator. Our analysis accounts for three distinct sources of error in the process: statistical fluctuations, the approximation bias inherent to the asymptotic nature of the GP model-controlled under second-order regular variation-and the approximation error associated with the finite number of boosting iterates, making explicit the resulting bias-variance trade-off. We illustrate the practical benefits of the reparametrization through simulations, showing that it significantly reduces gradient correlation during training and improves convergence stability. The methodology is applied to a medical malpractice insurance dataset from the Texas Department of Insurance, comprising over 18 000 closed claims. The gradient boosting approach yields a good fit for the tail of settlement cost distributions and reveals that the number of days to settlement is the dominant predictor of tail heaviness, consistent with earlier findings in the reserving literature.

We introduce a theoretical framework for analyzing federated learning in a generative setting through a teacher-multiple interacting students scenario, in which each student receives a distinct realization of the data, either through a different noise corruption or by accessing a different subset, possibly of varying size. Using theoretical tools in equilibrium disordered system, we analytically show that interactions among students systematically enhance learning performance: highly noisy students require fewer samples to recover the underlying pattern, while low-noise students achieve a larger overlap with the ground-truth signal. We derive the optimal Bayesian conditions for teacher recovery as functions of the sample complexity, noise level, and interaction strength, and validate these predictions through numerical simulations. The resulting dynamics can be mapped onto equilibrium sampling in a Restricted Boltzmann Machine with a structured hidden layer, providing a principled theoretical understanding of how interactions improve distributed generative modeling.

Inferring others' beliefs requires more than reading surface signals; it requires tracking who told them what, in what order, and how credibly. The Theory of Mind Utility (ToM-U) formalizes this epistemic state inference problem at the computational level of analysis, specifying what mentalizing computes and why without commitment to algorithmic or neural implementation. ToM-U achieves this by constructing Local Epistemic World Models (LEWMs) -- directed typed graphs that represent agents, state nodes, and the epistemic relationships among them -- and evaluating discrete candidate LEWMs against observed behavior until one achieves sufficient confidence. Five formal definitions specify the LEWM structure, agent node properties including ordered information access history, a bounded proliferation mechanism for recursive mentalizing, three inference procedures, and a residue function that captures the structured trace left by failed mentalizing attempts. ToM-U differs from Bayesian Theory of Mind and adjacent formal accounts, which presuppose rather than derive belief states, and from simulation theory and theory-theory, which lack a formal apparatus for epistemic state inference. The architecture generates directional, falsifiable predictions about mentalizing failure that follow from structural properties of the model rather than auxiliary assumptions, and positions ToM-U as a domain-agnostic mechanism upstream of goal inference and other downstream social cognitive processes.

AI-augmented computing delegates natural language queries, code generation requests, and other open-ended tasks to a cluster of AI models that processes queries and generates responses. This paradigm introduces a resource dimension that neither classical time nor space complexity captures: the cost of sending queries to and receiving responses from such a cluster. We introduce token complexity, a formal resource measure defined as the minimum expected token cost to achieve a specified level of output quality on a task, and develop a taxonomy classifying AI systems by the strength of their probabilistic properties. We develop token complexity within the framework of AI-Oracle Turing machines, in which a probabilistic Turing machine interacts with a stochastic oracle via dedicated query and response tapes. We prove basic theorems establishing that token complexity behaves as expected: monotonicity (higher quality costs more tokens), convexity (quality improvements become progressively more expensive), price sensitivity (small price changes produce bounded cost changes), and price-relativity of task ordering (the token complexity ordering of tasks can reverse depending on the query-to-response cost ratio). We prove that the complexity frontier, defined as the set of all feasible resource bounds in tokens, time, and space, is non-empty, upward-closed, and convex.

Advancing scientific understanding through mechanistic modeling requires posing the right experimental questions to yield maximally informative data. To automate this pursuit within cognitive science, we introduce ATLAS (Active Theory Learning for Automated Science), an active learning framework for the data-driven discovery of interpretable behavioral models. ATLAS iterates between generating mechanistic hypotheses--instantiated as a diverse ensemble of sparse neural networks (Disentangled RNNs)--and designing experiments that optimally distinguish between them. We test this approach on the problem of recovering reinforcement learning agents from their behavior in bandit tasks. ATLAS designs varied sequences of qualitatively novel experiments with temporal structure tailored to underlying agent characteristics. The models trained on these experiments are evaluated against a comprehensive set of metrics for mechanistic modeling that capture behavioral, structural, and computational similarity. ATLAS achieves a 5-10x improvement in sample efficiency across all metrics compared to random experimentation, and its performance is further validated against expert-designed experiments derived from literature. These in silico results showcase ATLAS's potential to accelerate human-interpretable insights in cognitive science and other domains where scientific inquiry relies on discovering mechanistic models.

Theory of Mind (ToM) reasoning requires inferring agents' beliefs from partial and asymmetric observations, which remains an open challenge for LLMs. Existing prompting-based approaches improve ToM reasoning through observable-event filtering or temporal belief chains, without explicitly modeling nested beliefs. We introduce RecToM, an inference-time framework for ToM reasoning that models nested beliefs via recursive perspective construction. RecToM constructs each character perspective from the preceding character perspective along the character chain specified by the question, reducing higher-order belief questions to actual-world questions within the final constructed perspective. We further provide a KD45 analysis showing that RecToM's perspective construction induces a well-formed belief modality beyond simple event filtering. Experiments on ToM benchmarks, including Hi-ToM, Big-ToM, and FanToM, across multiple LLM backbones show that RecToM consistently outperforms recent advanced approaches, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Notably, RecToM reaches 100% accuracy on Hi-ToM with GPT-5.4 and Qwen3.5, a benchmark requiring higher-order ToM reasoning.

This paper introduces range regularization for federated learning with linear systematic components to enhance statistical accuracy and induce cross-client regularity conducive to quantization, coding, and resource efficiency. Our approach identifies features with shared weights across different clients and adaptively clusters the weights of personalized features at extreme values, a process we refer to as polar clustering. Theoretical analysis of the associated estimators poses significant challenges due to the seminorm nature and non-decomposability of the regularizer. We develop new proof techniques for the nonasymptotic analysis of statistical accuracy and faithful pattern recovery. Moreover, a fast optimization algorithm that leverages varying degrees of local strong convexity is proposed to reduce iteration complexity. Experiments support the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Cross-modal knowledge distillation (CMKD) studies how a (large) teacher model trained on one type of data (e.g., images) can guide a (smaller) student model building on another type of data (e.g., text/audio). Existing CMKD methods often require paired multi-modal data with aligned semantics, but obtaining such paired data are often costly and impractical. To mitigate this limitation, we develop a new CMKD framework for the more challenging setting where paired data are unavailable. In particular, we establish a cross-modal distributional relationship between teacher and student models, which reveals two fundamental quantities governing effective distillation: feature alignment and label alignment. These quantities characterize semantic discrepancy between modalities at the levels of representation and prediction distributions, respectively. Motivated by this insight, we propose a principled framework, with theoretical guarantees, that enables effective cross-modal knowledge distillation by aligning distributions rather than individual samples. Extensive experiments across a wide range of multimodal benchmarks show that our framework is highly effective in both unpaired and paired data settings, improving significantly over prior work.

Breakthroughs in large language models and multimodal generation technologies have propelled the digital reconstruction of human mental traits, emotional patterns, and long-term memory from science fiction toward engineering practice. Yet current research and industry practices at the intersection of AI and digital humans remain hampered by fundamental conceptual ambiguities: the essential differences between next-generation intelligent agents and traditional virtual humans, the construction pathways for digital entities possessing self-identity, and the core technical and ethical challenges confronting this domain all demand urgent clarification. This paper systematically examines the transformative logic underlying the transition from traditional virtual humans to the Soul Computing'' paradigm, driven by frontier AI technologies. We first analyze the evolutionary patterns of human consciousness and memory mechanisms, reassessing the core value of massive multimodal digital fragments in the reverse reconstruction of individual mental worlds. On this basis, we formally delineate the academic connotations of narrow and broad Soul Computing for the first time, clarifying its academic boundaries and essential distinctions from Affective Computing, Historical Reconstruction, and Mortal Computation. We argue that Soul Computing systems must architecturally construct an Intensional'' core rather than serving as purely ``Extensional'' functional carriers, thereby enabling the fundamental transition of AI from toolhood to living agency.

In this work, we develop theoretical foundation for flow matching with neural-network-parameterized conditional velocity fields. We establish convergence guarantees for gradient descent in the over-parameterized 2-layered ReLU neural network regime. We derive generalization bounds for the conditional velocity-field matching objective. Building on these results, we provide Wasserstein-distance guarantees for the samples generated by the induced flow. Our analysis is based on generalization bound for multi-task representation learning with unbounded losses, which may be of independent interest beyond flow-based generative modeling. These theoretical results are validated through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world image benchmarks.

Complex reasoning tasks increasingly require systems to produce outputs whose correctness cannot be judged by exact match against a single reference. Autoformalization (AF) is a representative example; it asks a model to translate informal mathematical or logical reasoning into a formally checkable object, yet expert-validated formalizations do not scale beyond toy cases and a single informal argument can admit many valid formal renderings. Progress therefore depends on whether partial, structured proxies can substitute for exact references. We introduce a reference-free proxy-judge framework for AF that replaces gold-standard matching with a vector of per-axis property checks. The framework organizes the proxy along three structural scopes that cover global properties of the elicited object, per-module properties internal to its sub-components, and cross-domain properties that re-align it to the informal source, and aggregates each axis into a verdict vector. The vector drives a reflective refinement loop in which a violated coordinate routes the controller to a matching repair target, so each iteration changes only what is judged wrong. Under bounded judge noise, the expected intrinsic gap contracts geometrically to a noise-dependent plateau. Across seven formalization backbones on miniF2F, ProofNet, e-SNLI, and ProntoQA, refinement consistently lifts Pass Rate over the single-shot ICL baseline, and the per-axis proxy outperforms a matched scalar proxy on benchmarks where the baseline has room to improve. Structured proxy judgments therefore provide both a practical refinement signal and a theoretical handle on convergence when exact references are unavailable.

We present SUPERBROWSER, an autonomous web-navigation agent designed against a single guiding hypothesis: a web agent should browse the way a person browses. A human reading a page does not retain every pixel they have seen; they look at a few candidate targets, decide on one, and remember only what is needed to keep the goal alive. We operationalize this perception-cognition-action triad as three coupled mechanisms. First, a vision-first bounding-box pipeline labels candidate interactive regions on every screenshot and feeds them, asynchronously prefetched, to the language model so that the "eye" precedes the "hand". Second, a three-role brain -- an Orchestrator that classifies and routes, a Planner that evaluates progress every few steps, and a Worker that emits per-step actions -- separates strategic from operational reasoning. Third, a structured Ledger stores only what a person would: the goal, the last three actions, a small set of facts and dead-ends, and a handful of checkpoints; a six-phase eviction loop systematically discards stale screenshots, state blobs, and reasoning traces from the live context. Action execution is a three-tier click cascade (Chrome DevTools Protocol to Puppeteer to scripted) with humanized Bezier motion, plus a chevron-aware bounding-box snapper that resolves the "small arrow beside a large label" ambiguity. On the Mind2Web Hard benchmark (66 tasks), SUPERBROWSER attains 89.47% success, placing third overall and ahead of every published open/research browser-agent baseline by a large margin. We argue that the gain comes not from any single trick but from the consistent application of a cognitive contract throughout the system.

Standard flow and diffusion pre-training matches the distribution of available data (e.g., molecules), which often covers only a small fraction of the valid design space. In generative discovery, however, one aims to sample valid new-to-nature designs, assigned negligible probability under, and thus inaccessible to, standard models fitted to the observed data. To overcome this limitation, we depart from data distribution matching and view a generative model through its generable set: the region it covers with non-negligible probability. This allows to introduce a new learning principle for out-of-distribution flow modeling: enlarging a model's generable set to increase coverage of the valid design space. We propose Active Flow Expansion (ActFlow), a continued pre-training method that employs verifier feedback to expand a pre-trained model over new valid regions by iteratively adapting to synthetic data generated through active exploration in the learned flow representation. Theoretically, we establish to our knowledge first-of-their-kind statistical learning guarantees for out-of-distribution flow modeling, analyzing generable set expansion as a local-to-global reachability process over a learned representation. Empirically, we assess ActFlow with suitable out-of-distribution generative modeling metrics across small organic molecules, mid-sized drug-like molecules, therapeutic peptides, and protein sequence design tasks. Results show that ActFlow expands valid coverage far beyond the region modeled by the initial pre-trained model, significantly outperforming widely adopted synthetic flow pre-training methods.

This paper provides a theoretical account of memorization in stochastic interpolation models. By leveraging closed-form expressions for the optimal velocity field and the associated score function, we show that, in the continuous-time oracle setting, both deterministic and stochastic generation processes recover training samples. Under Euler discretization, generated samples remain centered around training samples, with deviations controlled by the step size. We further analyze generation in the presence of estimation errors and show that accumulated estimation errors control the endpoint deviation from the training set. These results imply that the generated sample admits a representation as a training sample perturbed by three controlled terms: a discretization-induced bound, an estimation-error-induced bound, and stochastic Gaussian noise. Based on this characterization, we provide theoretical definitions of overfitting and underfitting in generative models. Synthetic simulations support our theoretical findings.

In many real-world settings, data streams are nonstationary and arrive sequentially, requiring learning systems to adapt continuously without retraining from scratch. Continual learning (CL) addresses this challenge by incorporating new tasks while mitigating catastrophic forgetting, where learning new information degrades performance on previously acquired knowledge. We introduce a control-theoretic perspective on CL that explicitly regulates the evolution of forgetting, framing adaptation as a controlled process subject to long-term stability constraints. We focus on replay-based CL, where a finite memory buffer stores representative samples from prior tasks. We propose COntinual Learning with Drift-Plus-Penalty (COLD), a continual learning framework based on the Drift-Plus-Penalty (DPP) principle from stochastic optimization. To facilitate analysis, we also consider an oracle variant, COLD-ORACLE, as a reference benchmark. At each task, both methods minimize the current task loss while maintaining a virtual queue that tracks deviations from long-term stability on previously learned tasks, capturing the stability-plasticity trade-off as a regulated dynamical process. We establish stability and convergence guarantees that characterize this trade-off through a tunable control parameter. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that COLD consistently outperforms a broad range of state-of-the-art CL methods while providing competitive and controllable forgetting behavior through explicit regulation of stability and plasticity.

Creating lifelike digital humans with genuine social intelligence requires unifying cognitive reasoning and multimodal generation within a coherent framework. Current approaches treat these as separate tasks: Large Language Models excel at dialogue but lack embodied expression, while diffusion-based talking head models achieve visual fidelity but ignore social cognition. To bridge this gap, we propose a closed-loop dual-agent framework integrating perception, social reasoning, and expression into a continuous interaction cycle. The perception module analyzes partners' multimodal behaviors from video, while the social reasoning module infers hidden mental states through Theory of Mind and selects responses via an ensemble mechanism. The expression module then generates emotion-controllable videos that jointly synthesize speaker speech and facial expressions with listener reactive behaviors, capturing bidirectional dynamics absent in prior work. We further construct a hierarchical Persona-Scenario dataset with psychologically grounded personas and private social goals to support evaluation under information asymmetry. Experiments on this dataset demonstrate competitive or superior performance on both dialogue quality and video generation metrics. Notably, our method surpasses even the full-information Script mode on key dialogue quality dimensions, suggesting that explicit mental state inference under uncertainty can elicit more thoughtful dialogue than unrestricted information access. Project page: https://resonantminds.github.io/.

Minimum Description Length (MDL) formalizes the principle of Occam's razor by optimizing the total description length: $L(\mathrm{model})+L(\mathrm{data} \ | \ \mathrm{model})$. For sequential prediction, the MDL method repeatedly selects a model with a minimum objective score of the observed prefix for the next step prediction. Classical MDL prediction theory shows that exact optimization of the MDL objective indeed provides a strong compression guarantee that supports reliable prediction. However, practical machine learning usually can only find models by approximately optimizing the objective function. To bridge this gap, this paper addresses the following fundamental question: Under what forms of approximation and regularization does approximate MDL still guarantee reliable sequential prediction? This work offers a principled characterization. We prove that for any approximation with additive slack $C$ of the more general form of the balanced MDL objective: $λ\cdot L(\mathrm{model})+L(\mathrm{data} \ | \ \mathrm{model})$, the cumulative expected squared prediction error is finite for all $λ\ge1$. The case $λ>1$ is proved by an affinity-telescoping argument, while the boundary case $λ=1$ is proved by a likelihood-ratio stopping argument based on exact static MDL bounds. Our results establish that classical MDL regularization remains robust to any fixed additive optimization error. Furthermore, we establish that our characterization of the approximate MDL framework is sharp: When $0<λ<1$, overfits can happen to incur infinite cumulative expected error in the universal class of estimable measures, and hence a strong form of model-complexity regularization is necessary. In addition, model selection may fail in every regularized regime $λ>0$, under multiplicative approximation, and thus, additive approximation is both sufficient and essential.

Training modern machine learning models increasingly requires computation to be distributed across many accelerators. Data parallelism remains the default choice and is often paired with tensor-parallel sharding, but model parallelism becomes unavoidable once parameters, activations, or optimizer states no longer fit on a single device. This paper studies pipeline model parallelism through the lens of PipeDream (PD) (Harlap et al., 2018). Our first contribution is theoretical: we introduce Randomized PipeDream (RPD), a stale block-SGD abstraction that yields, to our knowledge, the first clean nonconvex convergence guarantee for a PD-style method. Our second contribution is a scaling diagnosis: we prove that the delay induced by steady-state PD grows as $S^2 - S/2 + O(1)$ for $S$ stages, so the stale-read contribution in the convergence theorem scales as $Θ(γ^2 S^4)$, equivalently as $Θ(S^4/K)$ in the tuned-rate form. Our third contribution is a comparison with LocalSGD, whose periodic model averaging trades weight staleness for synchronization bubbles. In our reported simulated-time experiments, the better-performing method depends on the objective: PD performs better on the quadratic objective and on a small language-modeling training-loss task, while for logistic regression LocalSGD becomes superior as the number of stages increases.

This paper proposes, for the first time, a rigorous formal definition of the concept of Machine Theory of Mind, based on principles supported by evidence from cognitive psychology, neuroscience and artificial intelligence, and uses the above as a lens to examine state-of-the-art and current efforts in the field, driving a potential agenda for further research there able to "crack" the problem. It also advances a general holistic meta-model for Machine Theory of Mind, and examines the state of the art when it comes to empirically benchmarking such models.

We introduce Lie groupoid equivariant neural networks as a specialization of recently proposed topological category-equivariant neural networks to the differentiable setting. Lie groupoid equivariant neural networks are composed from Lie groupoid lifting convolutions and Lie groupoid convolution layers, and we show how for suitable Lie groupoids they are equivalent to certain Lie algebroid-equivariant neural networks. We additionally describe groupoid invariant global pooling as a generalization of group invariant global pooling. Furthermore, we show that each of the aforementioned layers is a special case of recently introduced admissible category-equivariant layers by demonstrating that they define continuous natural transformations between continuous feature functors.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have found success parsing neural representations into interpretable concepts, providing a basis for understanding and control. However, what exactly SAEs extract, and, correspondingly, the scientific conclusions we can draw from them, are not obvious. Empirically, the proof is in the pudding: SAEs learn interpretable features. Theoretically, we lack a clear account of what properties a 'concept' must satisfy for an SAE to extract it. There has been extensive identifiability work studying the conditions under which sparse coding recovers ground-truth features; however, these approaches tends to focus on simple data-generating models (e.g. sparse independent features) which poorly approximate the internet-swallowing language-model representations on which SAEs are trained. Here, avoiding data-generating models, we ask simply what properties any dictionary learning optimum must satisfy. Concretely, we extend local optimality analyses (Gribonval & Schnass, 2010) to the nonnegative joint-optimisation problem that vanilla SAEs approximate, and derive constraints relating optimal SAE features to their distributions. We use these constraints to explain a range of observed SAE behaviours - hierarchical splitting & absorption, the structure of residuals, and dense antipodal features - each reflecting how L1+nonnegativity interact with data to structure optimal dictionaries. Finally, we construct a novel large-dictionary convex problem and explore the wide atom-per-datapoint limit. In sum, we hope to tease model assumptions from unexpected observations, letting us learn more from SAEs' successes and provide principles for designing their successors.

Multi-robot systems cannot assume persistent network connectivity. We study this problem through target tracking, where performance depends on how quickly target information is sensed, transported through the team, and used before it becomes stale. When robots exchange information only through physical encounters, tracking becomes a kinetic information-transport problem: robot motion induces encounters, encounters carry target-state estimates, information age determines staleness, and stale information produces tracking error. This paper develops a kinetic theory of encounter-based information propagation and identifies three limits. The first is an access limit -- information cannot support team-level coordination unless it spreads beyond the robots that sensed it. The second is a staleness limit -- even propagated information loses value as the target moves. The third is a geometry limit -- when target motion outpaces information transport, tracking error approaches a saturation regime where communication improvements alone have diminishing returns. We evaluate the theory through large-scale simulations varying team size, operating area, communication range, and target speed. Results support the proposed access-staleness-geometry decomposition: communication coverage governs the access transition; once information is accessible, tracking error is shaped by target displacement; and this response is locally linear in restricted regimes but nonlinear over broader ranges because of sensing refreshes and bounded geometry. Across controlled sweeps and joint variation, the derived access and staleness coordinates reliably describe tracking performance. Together, these results establish a kinetic-theoretic framework for predicting and designing encounter-based multi-robot systems.

Self-play, a type of training algorithm that enables a model to self-improve, has recently shown promising empirical results in the context of formal theorem proving using Large Language Models (LLMs). (Dong & Ma, 2025) instantiate self-play with two cooperating agents: a prover, which proves theorems, and a conjecturer, which generates new theorems as a curriculum to the prover. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework for understanding the self-improvement capabilities of self-play algorithms for theorem proving. First, we formalize the set of theorems as a graph, with nodes as theorems and edges between pairs of theorems with similar semantics. We introduce a set of primitive assumptions that characterize the guarantees of a trained prover and how a conjecturer can access the structure of the graph. Second, we show that if the underlying graph of theorems is well-connected, then a prover-conjecturer system, where the conjecturing algorithm is based on a reversible random walk, is sufficient to grow the set of proved theorems exponentially. Third, motivated by an issue encountered empirically by self-play algorithms, where the conjecturer tends to generate artificially complex and non-fundamental theorems, we propose a diversity measure for a training distribution of theorems generated by a conjecturer and an improved conjecturing algorithm that locally maximizes this diversity measure, by computing the diffusion similarity between neighboring theorems in the theorem graph. Finally, we describe a method to compute the diffusion similarity by using contrastive learning to embed nodes into Euclidean space and then computing the inner-product between embeddings.

Engression is a recently proposed and effective framework for conditional distribution learning. Its multi-step Reverse Markov extension further improves generative flexibility by decomposing complex conditional sampling into sequential reverse transitions. Despite their strong empirical performance, rigorous finite-sample statistical guarantees for these methods remain unavailable. In this paper, under deep neural network parameterizations, we establish nonasymptotic convergence bounds for Engression by directly controlling the Energy Distance between the learned and target conditional distributions. For the Reverse Markov framework, we further develop an Energy-Distance-based chain rule that enables a rigorous analysis of error propagation across reverse steps. Our analysis yields corresponding excess-risk bounds that are near-optimal up to logarithmic factors relative to the classical minimax rate over a general Hölder class.

Data centers now account for 4.4% of United States electricity demand, yet the grid-level effectiveness of the renewable energy certificates (RECs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs) hyperscalers use to claim carbon neutrality remains unclear. We develop a game-theoretic model in which a data center operator chooses among RECs, PPAs, and behind-the-meter colocation while generators make entry decisions under endogenous financing costs. The model identifies a timing wedge -- the mismatch between consumption and credited renewable generation -- as a central mechanism through which AI demand degrades reliability, raises prices, and increases emissions even when RECs cover 100% of annual consumption. Colocation with storage addresses this wedge directly and induces the greatest renewable entry by eliminating generator revenue risk. We test these predictions by exploiting the staggered release of large language models as a natural experiment, using difference-in-differences on a novel dataset linking AI activity to local grid outcomes. AI demand significantly increases fossil generation, wholesale prices (up to 25% in treated PJM zones), and outage frequency (0.5--1 additional outages per year) near data centers, with impacts scaling in model size. Data centers with on-site generation exhibit a sign reversal in power-quality effects, consistent with the model's prediction that behind-the-meter capacity absorbs demand spikes. Counterfactual analyses show that edge inference, spatial reallocation, and colocated storage each substantially mitigate grid impacts, while REC-only strategies do not. Together, our results demonstrate that the externalities of AI to the grid are tightly coupled to procurement design and the spatial organization of data center infrastructure.

Traditional artificial intelligence has largely conceptualized intelligence as isolated computation occurring within bounded agents. Across classical AI, machine learning, and many generative systems, the dominant unit of analysis remains the individual model or autonomous system evaluated through outputs, benchmarks, prediction accuracy, or optimization performance. While these approaches have produced major advances, they often under-theorize the role of interaction in the emergence of intelligence, creativity, meaning, and adaptive behavior. This paper proposes interaction as the primary unit of analysis for co-creative AI and interaction-centered intelligence more broadly. Drawing from distributed cognition, embodied cognition, enaction, participatory sense-making, human-computer interaction, and computational creativity, the paper traces a historical progression toward increasingly relational accounts of intelligence. Building upon prior work in Creative Sense-Making, quantified co-creation, and co-creative systems such as the Drawing Apprentice and AI Drawing Partner, it argues that intelligence emerges through evolving interaction dynamics among agents, environments, and socio-technical systems rather than solely through internal computation. The paper introduces Interaction-Centered Intelligence as a framework for understanding human-AI co-creation, collaborative emergence, adaptive participation, and interactional dynamics. Rather than evaluating intelligence solely through generated outputs, the framework emphasizes interaction trajectories, coordination patterns, participatory engagement, adaptive regulation, and interactional drift unfolding through time. Implications for explainable co-creative AI, hybrid intelligence, enactive AI, and future human-AI systems are discussed.

Compositional data must be analysed through log-ratios: scale invariance, the defining axiom of the field, leaves no alternative. The centred log-ratio divides by the geometric mean of every part, so a single contaminated component shifts every centred-log-ratio coordinate at once, displacing the log-ratio vector by a fixed amount that no choice of coordinates can reduce. We develop a theory of cellwise contamination on the simplex around this observation. A scale-invariant contamination model built from multiplicative perturbation combines with a propagation theorem showing that corruption of a single raw part induces a rank-one shift of the log-ratio vector, with direction determined by the contrast matrix. The resulting perturbation pattern is not equivalent to any independent cellwise contamination model in log-ratio coordinates -- so standard Euclidean cellwise methods applied to log-ratios are ill-posed under the simplex contamination mechanism. For estimators whose Euclidean cellwise breakdown is witnessed by a column-concentrated configuration -- a class including MCD, $S$-, $τ$-, and coordinate-wise $M$-estimators of location and scatter -- the cellwise breakdown value on the simplex is reduced by the factor $(D-1)/D$ relative to its Euclidean counterpart, a reduction that is tight and arises purely from the normalisation mismatch between $nD$ raw cells and $n(D-1)$ ilr cells. The cellwise influence function for the variation matrix carries a diagnostic fingerprint: contamination of a single part inflates exactly one row and column, identifying the responsible component. These results form the theoretical foundation for cellwise-robust methods on the simplex; a companion paper develops a cellwise-robust PCA estimator that exploits the propagation geometry and demonstrates it on simulated and geochemical data.

LLM benchmark labels are frozen at release and silently propagated into downstream benchmarks, errors and all. We introduce an Item Response Theory-based indicator that surfaces likely mislabels at 95% precision in the top 200 examples across seven preference and multiple-choice benchmarks using responses from 114 models, outperforming a supervised classifier. We trace these errors to mechanical labeling heuristics, upstream annotation mistakes inherited unchanged from source datasets, and fundamentally ambiguous items without a defensible single label. The same model fit reveals that reward models specialize in stylistic preference rather than factual knowledge, and identifies one frontier reward model that agrees with detected mislabels at 78% accuracy versus 38% for its peers, consistent with benchmark contamination or benchmark-specific over-optimization.

Graph foundation models (GFMs) aim to reuse a single backbone across diverse graph domains, yet their transfer is often uneven and can exhibit negative transfer. While most prior work improves transfer through architectural or adaptation choices, we ask a data-centric question: which properties of two graph domains determine how much a fixed representation model changes its outputs? Using a graphon-based continuous limit for dense graphs, we show that for both set-based and message-passing tokenizations, any Lipschitz backbone admits an explicit decomposition of cross-domain output shift into (i) graph-specific finite-sample approximation terms and (ii) an intrinsic, relabeling-invariant domain discrepancy capturing structural mismatch. A key ingredient is positional-encoding (PE) stability: we establish stability guarantees for spectral PEs and highlight contrasting behaviors of eigenvector- versus subspace-based PEs. Experiments on synthetic and real graphs validate the theory and translate the decomposition into guidance for data curation in GFM transfer.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) agents typically learn world models by minimizing predictive loss. However, powerful RL optimizers inevitably exploit minor model inaccuracies, leading to simulator exploitation and a reality gap where policies succeed in simulation but fail in the real world. We propose that the objective for learning simulators should be strategic robustness rather than predictive accuracy, and formulate this as a zero-sum minimax game between a model player and an adversarial policy player. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis: (1) an online learning guarantee showing the game is learnable with sublinear regret bounds; (2) a tractable critic-based simplification bounding the global policy-value gap by the local critic's loss; and (3) an Error-MDP duality, proving that finding the worst-case policy is formally dual to a standard RL problem where the reward is the one-step critic error. This duality yields a provably convergent active data selection algorithm. Experiments on continuous control tasks demonstrate that our approach reduces prediction error in strategically important regions by $1.5$-$2.2\times$ and enables policies trained purely in simulation to match near-optimal real-world performance.

In this paper, training a neural network is identified, exactly, as a search through Hamilton--Jacobi initial-value problems: each gradient step selects the initial data of a viscous Hamilton--Jacobi equation whose Hopf--Cole propagator best fits the observations; at inference, the input is the spatial point at which that solution is evaluated and the initial condition is already encoded in the weights. The correspondence is exact for log-sum-exp layers and structural for broader architectures: residual networks, transformers, and recurrent architectures (RNNs, LSTMs, SSMs) each discretize the same class of Hamilton--Jacobi equations, with architecture-dependent Hamiltonian and viscosity. A single deformation parameter $\varepsilon$ unifies all four perspectives (network, tropical algebra, viscous PDE, convex optimization) in a commutative diagram closed under Lipschitz conditions. Quantitative consequences include: the minimax optimal generalization rate $O(n^{-1/(d+2)})$ for fixed $t$; adversarial robustness controlled by $\varepsilon$; backpropagation as the co-state equation of the Hamiltonian system for residual networks (Pontryagin Maximum Principle); scaling exponents consistent with data intrinsic dimension via PDE quadrature; and a closed-form $O(N)$ influence function (softmax attribution weights $π_j$) whose entropy landscape undergoes fold bifurcations as $\varepsilon$ increases, each merging attribution basins.

Generative models, from diffusion models to large language models, achieve remarkable performance but at a cost in training data orders of magnitude larger than what biological learners require. An alternative paradigm has emerged in which networks are trained to predict their \emph{own} latent representations of related views or masked regions, as in data2vec and JEPA -- an idea related to predictive-coding accounts of the cortex. Despite strong empirical results, the theoretical understanding of these methods remains limited. Central questions include: by how much does latent prediction actually improve data efficiency? Is there a benefit to stacking such methods into multi-scale hierarchies? We answer both using as data a tractable probabilistic context-free grammar that captures the compositional structure of natural language and images. Such a grammar generates strings of visible tokens by recursively applying production rules along a tree of hidden symbols of depth $L$. For such data, supervised or token-level SSL require a number of samples \emph{exponential} in $L$ to recover the latent tree; we prove that latent prediction achieves this with a number of samples \emph{constant} in $L$, up to logarithmic factors. We confirm this bound with (i) a hierarchical clustering algorithm, (ii) an end-to-end neural network whose predictor-clusterer modules predict their own latents at each level via gradient descent, and (iii) the first sample-complexity analysis of data2vec, which we show implicitly performs hierarchical latent prediction. This suggests that explicit stacking such as H-JEPA is largely redundant.

Enterprise data platforms face an enduring tension between domain self-service and holistic governance. The data mesh paradigm proposed decentralized domain ownership as a remedy, but pure implementations frequently underdeliver: teams inherit new responsibilities without the platform maturity, tooling, or coordination mechanisms needed to exercise them effectively. This paper argues that the flexibility-versus-control trade-off can be relaxed through an AI-augmented hub-and-spoke model layered on a modern lakehouse architecture. A central hub (Center of Excellence) provides shared platform services, policy automation, and AI-enabled governance, automatically standardizing data products, generating quality rules, drafting data contracts, and reviewing changes for regressions. Domain spokes own business semantics, product backlogs, and local iteration cadence, progressively assuming greater responsibility as they mature. The same LLMs that automate governance tasks also lower the barrier for domain practitioners to develop genuine cross-functional expertise spanning business and data engineering, enabling spoke teams to take on greater end-to-end ownership without proportionally increasing their dependence on the hub. Natural-language conversational interfaces further democratize access for business users, exposing historically underutilized enterprise data. On the organizational side, we propose a staged framework that shifts ownership from hub to spokes, avoiding both centralized bottlenecks and uncoordinated decentralization. We evaluate the architecture through three outcome metrics: data product adoption, time-to-find, and time-to-insight, that tie platform success to measurable business value rather than internal activity.

Mechanistic interpretability often studies Transformer behavior by intervening on internal activations through activation patching, causal tracing, path patching, and steering directions. This paper develops Transformer Field Theory: a response-theoretic framework in which the residual stream of a fixed forward pass is treated as a Transformer field over layer depth and token position. In this formulation, patching becomes a localized source insertion into the Transformer field, first-order sensitivity fields predict patch effects, Green functions describe downstream propagation, and patch selection is posed as an adjoint inverse problem. Empirically, we test the theory's forward response objects in GPT-2-style autoregressive Transformers. Localized Transformer-field interventions exhibit a bounded local linear regime; first-order sensitivities predict patch effects across layer-token sites; localized sources generate structured anisotropic Transformer-field propagation; high-sensitivity sites and sliced Green operators provide reduced response descriptions; and prompt-induced Transformer-field displacements partially transfer answer behavior. These results establish sensitivities, Transformer-field responses, and sliced Green operators as practical objects for organizing patching experiments, while providing the forward mathematical basis for patch-site inference and cross-scale response transfer.

Diffusion models are increasingly used as powerful conditional generators, yet real deployments often involve multiple target distributions arising from different tasks, e.g., diverse prompt domains in text-to-image generation, or multiple environments in robotics with diffusion policies. This naturally leads to a multi-objective learning (MOL) problem. A key challenge is that achieving good Pareto trade-offs can require a generalist model class with substantially larger capacity than what suffices for solving any individual task, thereby increasing statistical cost since sample complexity typically scales with the model complexity. To reconcile this, we develop a principled MOL framework for diffusion models with limited data: a semi-supervised regime where paired (labeled) samples are scarce, but (unlabeled) condition data are abundant. We propose a two-stage training procedure that first fits lightweight specialist models from limited paired data, and then distills them into a generalist model by generating pseudo-samples. We establish generalization bounds showing that the required number of paired samples only depends on the complexity of the specialist model classes. We further extend the theory to diffusion policies for sequential decision making to account for distribution shift in on-policy rollouts. Extensive experiments on robotic control and image restoration tasks are conducted to verify our theoretical results.

Competitive resource allocation problems over frequency and space can be formulated as minimax interaction between transmit power and worst-case interference. This formulation naturally arises in multi-operator low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite spectrum sharing, where transmissions from competing constellations interfere in real-time. Under Gaussian channels, the corresponding power-allocation problem admits a convex-concave formulation with a unique saddle point. Discrete constellations yield generally nonconvex mercury/water-filling formulations. In this paper we propose the adversarial water-filling (AWF) problem with corresponding theory and algorithms for these settings. In addition, we develop a domain-specific wireless foundation model for AWF to learn the AWF search dynamics. The architecture incorporates permutation-invariant channel representations, a constraint-aware graph neural network (GNN) with sparse message passing, and global latent variables capturing the low-dimensional water level implied by the AWF optimality. Through learned projected extragradient iterations, the model approximates stationary solutions of the constrained minimax problem arising under mercury/water-filling. We further establish projected-stationarity/Karush-Kuhn-Tucker consistency and conditional local convergence of the learned AWF dynamics under local regularity and stability conditions. Experiments demonstrate empirical generalization across unseen problem sizes, constraint structures, discrete constellations, and channel-weighted objectives, while achieving a median speedup exceeding one order of magnitude over Mirror-Prox on matched instances at comparable first-order solution quality. The related code can be found at https://github.com/convexsoft/AWF.

In dynamic acoustic environments with time-varying interferers, effective beamforming requires identifying stationary regions over time. The Capon beamformer, a whitened matched filter constrained to maintain unity gain in the desired direction, theoretically relies on the instantaneous ensemble covariance matrix. Practical implementations rely on the batch Capon (or Sample Matrix Inversion), which estimates the sample covariance matrix (SCM) by averaging over a block of snapshots. This practical approach implicitly assumes that the data within the batch window is stationary and can be coherently combined. In non-stationary settings, a batch approach that averages over fixed or excessively long windows fails, as moving interferers smear the SCM and degrade the beamformer's nulling capabilities. To address this, this paper introduces a temporally segmented distortionless response beamformer. Inspired by the segmented least squares method, which fits piecewise polynomials to data while penalizing excessive segmentation to prevent overfitting, the framework extends practical Capon beamforming by incorporating data-driven temporal segmentation. This formulation minimizes output power while dynamically adapting the SCM estimation windows to local stationarity, offering a principled approach to tracking time-varying interferers.