Causal

Virtual cells employ machine learning models to simulate and predict cellular behaviors, serving as a critical computational framework for investigating health and disease. Injecting causal graphs into virtual cells can improve the interpretability, but such graphs are usually not available in real-world applications. Recently, many methods have been proposed to construct causal graphs from data, which group genes based on their similarities to form concepts and extract their causal relationships. However, since this automatic process is unsupervised, the causal graphs usually contain errors. In this paper, we propose a human-guided causal knowledge injection method for virtual cells. We developed a gene-similarity-aware causal graph visualization supported by a hybrid optimization algorithm to help explore both the causal relationships between concepts and the similarities between genes. Based on the exploration, we further developed a counterfactual analysis strategy supported by a counterfactual visualization and a causal path visualization to help validate and refine causal graphs. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through two real-world case studies, the extraction of scientifically meaningful causal insights, and positive feedback from domain experts.

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from longitudinal observational data is central to clinical decision support. Existing methods rely on domain confusion -- adversarial training that renders representations invariant to treatment assignment -- yet this invariance creates a mutual information conflict: it suppresses treatment-correlated covariate signals necessary for accurate outcome prediction. We formalise this tension via a Jensen-Shannon divergence bound on counterfactual prediction error and develop two complementary models. CSSD (Causal State-Space model with Direct decoder) adapts selective State Space Models with a parallel multi-step decoder that eliminates accumulated rollout error by producing all prediction horizons simultaneously in a single forward pass. CSSPD (Causal State-Space model with Predictive regularisation and Direct decoder) augments CSSD with Contrastive Predictive Coding and Local Information Maximisation to reinforce temporal predictability in the balancing representation and recover local covariate information destroyed by domain confusion. On MIMIC-III, CSSPD achieves lower counterfactual RMSE than the Causal Transformer at every horizon tau >= 2 at O(T) encoder cost, with gains from 0.02 (2-step) to 0.07 (6-step). On Cancer Simulation across confounding strengths gamma in {0,1,2,3,4}, CSSPD outperforms CT at gamma <= 3 (margins 25.9%--37.0%), and CSSD achieves the lowest overall average RMSE (12.7% reduction over CT), confirming the MI conflict analysis. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formalise the balancing-prediction MI conflict and propose a structured resolution through complementary predictive and information-theoretic training objectives.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly reported to exhibit human-like neural and cognitive signatures, including concept cells, mental number lines, and cognitive maps. These claims often rely on linear probing and activation steering applied to a single model, yet both methods are highly sensitive to measurement choices. A reported parallel may therefore reflect the model, the measurement procedure, or both. We audit four representative neuroscience-inspired paradigms across 17 models from five families, spanning $0.6$B to $72$B parameters. Our main experiment examines the causal steerability of concept directions. With raw activation units and a fixed layer and coefficient, steerability appears to increase with model scale, resembling an emergent capability. However, this pattern is produced by an uncalibrated pipeline rather than by a claim established in the steering literature. The trend depends jointly on raw units, the readout metric, and the operating point; correcting any one of these removes it. With residual-norm-comparable interventions and held-out operating-point selection, concept steering remains significant at every scale, but shows no significant trend across the Qwen3 series, although the confidence interval does not rule out a moderate positive slope. The remaining results are mixed. A linear geographic world map is consistently decodable in every tested checkpoint up to $72$B. Number magnitude is strongly encoded, but whether individual neurons appear bell-shaped or monotonic depends on the selection criterion. Language-specific structure is localizable, but the direction of the cross-lingual asymmetry reverses under a different attribution method. These results suggest that the main constraint on AI neuroscience is not a lack of phenomena, but a lack of comparable measurements and adequate controls. We release the protocol, stimuli, and code.

Learning fine-grained spatial patterns from coarse-resolution data is challenging, especially in causal settings where high-resolution effects must be inferred from aggregated interventions and outcomes. We introduce CLAM, a method for estimating localized causal effects from coarse observations by exploiting high-resolution contextual covariates that modulate these effects. By jointly learning the causal mechanism and a disaggregation mapping, CLAM captures interactions that are missed when addressing these problems independently. The method supports localized effect estimation, counterfactual reasoning, and principled outcome disaggregation, and reliably captures spatially varying causal effects across diverse settings. This is particularly relevant for applications such as public health and environmental policy, where decisions are made at broad scales despite substantial local heterogeneity. Code is available at https://github.com/gerritgr/clam

A world model is only useful for physical AI if it changes what the agent does, and only safe if it declines to do so when it is wrong. We study both halves of that requirement with CausalNav, a controller built around a signed, action-conditioned transition graph over identified state coordinates. At deployment CausalNav simulates a small library of intervention sequences, converts their objective error into policy-logit advice, and admits that advice only when a scale-free predictive-reliability certificate, a policy-margin gate, and an argmax-agreement gate all pass; otherwise it falls back exactly to its own model-based base controller. We evaluate against nine controlled baselines (transformer, recurrent, split-latent, graph, causal-induction, and three recent model-based reasoning modules) on CartPole-v1 and discretized Pendulum-v1 with physical-parameter shifts, under one shared PPO trainer, one interaction budget, and ten held-out seeds (200 runs). CausalNav attains the best average rank (1.25 of ten). The diagnostic result is more informative than the ranking: the learned graph recovers structure well above chance (CartPole F1 = 0.59 +/- 0.09), yet per-seed structural fidelity is uncorrelated with per-seed control benefit (r = -0.15, p = 0.67), and the certificate abstains on 10/10 Pendulum seeds, where forcing the planner on costs return. Model fidelity did not predict downstream control utility in our setting; certified abstention, not better prediction, is what made the world model safe to deploy.

Dravidian languages, mainly Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, and Malayalam make up only a small part of the data used to train multilingual language models, so it's not clear how much per-language ability these models actually keep. I have trained five GPT-2 architecture models from scratch to compare four monolingual models (one each for Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, and Malayalam, each with its own 32K-vocabulary subword tokenizer) against one multilingual model sharing a 64K-vocabulary subword tokenizer across all four languages. All the 5 models are trained on cleaned CC-100, Wikipedia, and Samanantar data. I have tested the models on perplexity, bits-per-byte, tokenizer efficiency, and fine-tuning results which are compared against mGPT. The monolingual models outperform mGPT on sentiment classification and named entity recognition, and their tokenizers proved more efficient than the shared multilingual model across all the languages tested.

Probabilistic logic programming is a formalism of statistical relational artificial intelligence that supports causal queries, including interventions from outside the system. When the structure of a probabilistic logic program is learned from data, however, only probabilistic information is used, and a single probability distribution may be compatible with several causal orders. This leads to ambiguity in interventional reasoning, raising the question of when the causal order is uniquely determined by the distribution. Exploiting the relationship between acyclic probabilistic logic programs and Bayesian networks, we derive conditions under which the probabilistic information encoded in a program determines a unique causal order. We also incorporate constraints arising from relational structure by taking into account prescribed sets of causal symmetries induced by the underlying relational vocabulary. The result is a method for verifying when a learned probabilistic logic program supports well-defined intervention semantics.

Modern AI is no longer a single model but an ecosystem: classical ML predictors, deep and multimodal models, large language models, and agents, each trained and tuned over different data sources and each producing outputs at scale that become inputs to the others. Operating such an ecosystem is fundamentally a data integration problem - the knowledge it depends on is fragmented across dozens of heterogeneous, independently governed sources that must be reconciled and continually maintained. Yet integration alone is not enough. The predictions these systems make are shaped by many interacting factors, and the events, decisions, and variables that drive an outcome are routinely entangled with the ones that merely accompany it; treated as a basis for action, such correlational signals invite confounded decisions. This becomes acute once agents act autonomously: to be trustworthy and reliable, an agent must anticipate the consequences of its actions, not merely extrapolate from what has co-occurred before. Causal reasoning is what closes this gap, distinguishing the drivers of an outcome from its correlates, and enabling prescriptive and counterfactual analysis over the ecosystem's data. We therefore argue that the integrated ecosystem needs an explicit causal layer, and we propose to build it as a shared, persistent, queryable Causal World System (CWS).

Randomized experiments are often run in one population to guide decisions in another. Allocating by experimental proportions wastes budget on groups that rarely appear in deployment, whereas allocating by deployment proportions under-samples groups that are hard to measure precisely. We propose \textbf{TWNA} (Target-Weighted Neyman Allocation), a two-stage stratified design that uses pilot estimates of group--arm outcome variances to allocate final-stage sample sizes and treatment probabilities for target-weighted group average treatment effect (GATE) precision. The oracle rule has a closed form and balances deployment importance with statistical difficulty; the plug-in rule recovers it as pilot variance estimates stabilize. We also extend TWNA to handle uncertainty about deployment composition, remaining robust whether the target mix is roughly known or entirely unknown. Finally, we distinguish this weight robustness from a pilot-robust variant for skewed, rare-event, or contaminated outcomes. Simulations and real-covariate benchmarks show the largest gains when groups are both deployment-important and difficult to measure.

Adaptive data-cleaning methods replace manual filtering thresholds with data-driven partitions. However, changing the partition granularity, the number of groups used to segment samples by estimated corruption risk, can implicitly shift the decision boundary and alter the overall number of removed samples. This creates a bias known as removal-budget confounding, where apparent gains in metrics like precision or false-positive rate reflect a smaller removal budget rather than superior corruption discrimination. To address this evaluation bias, we introduce an operating-point-aware evaluation framework that evaluates methods using matched-budget and matched-recall controls alongside threshold-independent metrics (AUROC and AUPRC). We test this framework on a multi-cue adaptive cleaner redesign featuring a reweighted learning-difficulty cue, an auxiliary Euclidean-distance cue, and increased partition granularity intended to isolate clean-but-difficult samples. While naive evaluations (assessing configurations at their own induced operating points) suggest substantial performance improvements for the redesign, these gains disappear once operating points are equalized. False-positive decomposition reveals that clean-but-difficult samples primarily drive error counts at low corruption rates, become threshold-dependent at moderate corruption, and contribute negligibly under severe corruption. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-100 demonstrate that most performance differences observed in naive evaluation shrink or vanish at low-to-moderate corruption when operating points are matched. True ranking advantages only remain in specific low-prevalence settings and in high-recall regions under severe corruption. These findings highlight that adaptive cleaning methods must be benchmarked at matched operating points to ensure performance gains reflect genuine corruption discrimination.

Construction accident narratives contain rich causal information, but the evidence is often implicit, long-span, and distributed. We introduce ConstructCIE, a manually annotated dataset for Causal Information Extraction from OSHA construction accident reports. The dataset uses a hierarchical schema for accident types, causal factors, sub-causal factors, and supporting evidence spans. We evaluate supervised sequence taggers and instruction-tuned LLMs in an end-to-end hierarchical extraction setting. Results show that most evaluated models achieve strong accident-type prediction and recover broad causal meaning but remain limited in precise span-level extraction. JHE generally achieves stronger exact and soft matching, while IHE sometimes achieves higher keyword F1. Error distributions vary by extraction strategy, but evidence-selection and span-boundary errors remain common. These findings show that reliable Causal Information Extraction for construction accidents requires stronger domain grounding and more accurate evidence extraction.

This work presents a novel attention-based framework for estimating the Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit (IPTB) in survival analysis contexts. The proposed model, called Surv-IPTB, directly quantifies the probability that a specific patient will experience extended survival time under treatment versus control. We reformulate IPTB estimation as a binary classification problem, leveraging pairwise patient comparisons across treatment and control cohorts. The framework incorporates a principled handling of right-censored observations through imprecise probability representations, where uncertain treatment effects are characterized by interval-valued probabilities. An attention mechanism with learnable query-key transformations enables flexible, data-driven aggregation of pairwise comparisons, while simultaneously learning soft class probabilities for censored cases. Through extensive experiments on synthetic datasets with complex nonlinear structures, including spiral, bell-shaped, and circular feature spaces, we demonstrate that our approach maintains robust performance across varying censoring rates and treatment effect strengths. The model consistently outperforms meta-learner baselines (T-learner and S-learner) equipped with random survival forests, Cox proportional hazards, and Beran estimators, particularly in challenging nonlinear scenarios where conventional methods exhibit significant degradation. The results establish the proposed attention-based framework as a scalable and statistically principled solution for personalized treatment benefit assessment in survival settings. The code implementing the model is publicly available.

Survey-country metadata can improve an LLM's forecast of an individual response when informative, yet the same cue may redirect the forecast when assigned at random. A within-record audit tests whether disclosing a random label's uniform, record-independent origin reduces its country-directed uptake, and whether verified survey country lowers held-out Brier loss. Independent population anchors and recorded human answers measure direction and consequence across five fixed API models, six countries, and seven development-selected targets. In the primary post-review 72-record panel, opaque and disclosed-random labels each produced country-direction shifts of 0.214. Paired attenuation was 0.0003 (95% CI [-0.0157, 0.0166]). Verified country reduced Brier loss by 0.040 (95% CI [0.024, 0.056]), while random-label regret included zero. A non-overlapping mixed-coverage consistency panel retained positive disclosed-random movement and verified utility, while attenuation remained uncertain. On the selected targets, verified metadata was useful in both panels, but disclosure did not reliably attenuate random-label uptake. PROV-FORECAST contains 14,400 paired item-level probability distributions from the corrected panel.

Multivariate time series forecasting presents unique challenges because future variables often co-evolve under shared system dynamics. While existing studies mainly focus on cross-variable dependencies in historical observations, dependencies among future values are much less explored. Specifically, modern forecasting models largely follow the Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm, generating multi-step forecasts with point-wise objectives that do not explicitly constrain cross-variable structure. In this work, we show that the DF objective is mismatched in the presence of cross-variable and lagged dependencies, revealing an objective gap. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{C}ross-\textbf{V}ariable \textbf{Loss} (CvLoss), a plug-in structural regularizer that constrains forecast residuals on a cross-variable graph. CvLoss penalizes inconsistent edge-wise residual differences over forecast patches, encouraging consistency across both synchronous and asynchronous interactions. Our experiments show that CvLoss consistently improves competitive forecasting models, outperforms representative learning objectives, and is compatible with a variety of forecasting backbones.

Real-time long-form avatar audio-video generation requires causal, continuous synthesis while maintaining audiovisual synchronization and visual consistency. Adapting a pretrained bidirectional model to this setting presents two key dilemmas. First, autoregressively reusing generated blocks as context creates exposure bias, causing errors and visual drift to accumulate over long rollouts. Second, a global speech utterance does not indicates a causal generator which portion should be spoken next when only limited local audio-video context is available. We present Vorch-Streamer, a post-training framework that addresses these challenges and enables real-time long-form Text-to-Audio-Video (T2AV) streaming. We construct a synthetic corpus of 80K avatar clips spanning 12-21 seconds and first train a causal generator with mixed Teacher Forcing and Diffusion Forcing. We then apply long-horizon Self Forcing with DMD distillation, exposing the model to its own rollout distribution while preserving the quality of the pretrained bidirectional teacher. To explicitly control speech progression, an external language model predicts discrete 25-Hz speech-planning tokens, whose continuous features condition the audio diffusion branch and align each causal block with the content it should speak. With bounded causal context and four-step denoising, Vorch-Streamer jointly generates audio and video from text at 27.12 FPS, exceeding the 24-FPS real-time playback rate while maintaining competitive audio-lip synchronization and strong identity preservation over long-form generation.

QAOA training repeatedly queries an objective and all shared gradients, making exact evaluation a feasibility bottleneck even when QUBO terms have bounded causal cones. Building on established causal-cone restriction and adjoint differentiation, LC-Implicit-QAOA profiles cone structure and induced-edge counts before local-amplitude and named-workspace allocation, then jointly selects equal-size microbatches and checkpoint schedules under a named active-evaluator workspace budget. "Implicit" means omitting both global state and global cost table, not implicit differentiation; infeasible requests are rejected before those allocations. An independently implemented complex128/float64 dense adjoint agrees with LC over 1,800 graph-angle comparisons, with a worst relative gradient error of 1.56 x 10^-13. LC completes all 104 target requests in a p=2 bounded-cone grid; under a prespecified n <= 24 validation cap, the matched state-plus-cost reference is executed for 28 requests and deliberately not run on 76. Across 80 budgeted requests, measured allocated evaluator memory stays within budget, reaching at most 0.797 of it. On 3-regular n=512, p=2, the adjoint reaches the same finite-budget endpoint in 101 objective-equivalent calls and 189 s, versus 909 calls and 1,565 s for central differences. LC targets fixed-depth one- and two-local diagonal QUBO costs with a transverse-field mixer; it provides neither global states, sampling, nor a hardware-independent fastest-backend rule.

Large language models typically undergo post-training to align them with safety policies but there exist many sophisticated jailbreaks that sidestep established safeguards. For instance, prior work by Andriushchenko et al. (2025) has found that changing the grammatical tense from present to past can be enough to elicit harmful responses. In this work, we uncover a more general failure of non-imperative syntactic forms. We demonstrate that this syntactic vulnerability exists in 16 models up to 70B parameters, using behavioral evaluation. To investigate the root cause, we apply causal mediation analysis, finding that refusal is partially conditioned on upstream syntactic features. By steering these purely syntactic features we are able to trigger and suppress refusal. Finally, we trace this ill-conditioning to linguistically biased post-training data of open-source models and show that increasing syntactic diversity can mitigate the issue. Our findings suggest that current alignment approaches introduce confounders that prevent a pure semantic grounding of the refusal decision.

Generative models can reproduce an observational distribution while encoding an incorrect causal structure. We study a sequential game in which a structural causal generator proposes observational and interventional distributions, while an adversarial experimentalist selects interventions intended to maximally falsify the generator. The discriminator is therefore not merely a real-versus-synthetic classifier: it is indexed by an intervention and tests whether the generator reproduces the corresponding post-intervention law. We introduce Adversarial Causal Intervention Falsification (ACIF), formulate oracle and implementable versions of the game, and distinguish three objects that are often conflated: observational fit, interventional equivalence over an admissible query class, and point identification of a structural causal model. For finite model and intervention classes, we prove: (i) an exact reduction of the adversarial objective to a worst-intervention integral probability metric; (ii) identification up to interventional equivalence, with point identification under a separating intervention family; (iii) existence of mixed-strategy equilibria; (iv) finite-sample uniform convergence and margin-based model-selection guarantees; and (v) a logarithmic elimination guarantee for a disagreement-driven sequential design under a balanced-separation condition. We also give a complete linear-Gaussian example in which two observationally indistinguishable causal directions are separated by a single well-chosen intervention. The framework clarifies what an adversarial causal discriminator can and cannot certify, and provides a principled bridge between causal generative modeling, active causal discovery, and experimental design.

Against the backdrop of violence in police interactions with the U.S. public, we explore how deferentially police officers speak to virtual characters depicted as Black adult males in vir- tual reality (VR) simulations. We evaluate the effect of seeing and communicating with these characters through a causal in- ference lens, where the assignment of the Black man character to a police officer and simulation is the treatment variable. Our (marginal) average treatment effect AT E measures the social impact of the character on the deference of officer statements with each turn of the conversation. Soberingly, we find that most officers speak less deferentially to Black man characters, except for White, biracial, and multiracial female officers, es- pecially in settings where the VR character was known to be a suspect. Across a full conversation of a typical VR scene, these marginal AT Es can result in notable changes in def- erence of tone (two to several points difference on a scale of 0-10), above and beyond that due to the initial effect of per- ceiving a Black male character. Even more disconcerting is that this can contribute to conversation breakdowns that po- tentially result in violence or danger to both the public and the police. We also explored the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for ATE estimation. From our methods com- parison analysis, including model validation against synthetic data, we provide unique scientific insights on LLM-assisted methodologies for ATE estimation. As such, for ATE esti- mation with multilevel data with text, we recommend mixed effects models with the inverse propensity treatment weighted (iptw) approach, which utilized an LLM for text feature cre- ation. While we also tested LLMs for finetuning prediction models ultimately for ATE estimation, we conclude they are an area for further development and refinement.

We developed a unified covariate-adjusted causal inference framework for estimating the desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) probability for benefit-risk evaluation in randomized trials and observational studies. The framework expresses the DOOR probability as a bilinear functional of the marginal ordinal outcome distributions under the two treatment strategies, estimates conditional ordinal distributions through sequential risk-set hazards, and derives the efficient influence function (EIF) of the DOOR probability. The point-estimation simulations compared G-computation, normalized inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), with nuisance functions estimated using generalized linear models or Super Learner (SL). TMLE-SL showed the strongest and most consistent point-estimation performance, with AIPW-SL ranking second. EIF-based inference was then evaluated for AIPW-SL and TMLE-SL, with and without cross-fitting, across settings varying in overlap, treatment-effect heterogeneity, and treatment allocation. CVTMLE-SL showed the strongest overall performance across DOOR-scale bias, recovery of the underlying ordinal distributions, standard-error accuracy, and confidence-interval coverage. We illustrate the methodology using data from the multidrug-resistant organism network of the Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group.

Bayesian causal discovery seeks to determine the posterior distribution of causal theories, which are interpreted as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that explain the observed data. The resulting posterior allows systematic reasoning regarding epistemic uncertainty within these theories. Nonetheless, finding such graphs is difficult due to identifiability problems and limited observational data. Furthermore, precisely approximating posterior over graphs is challenging given vast range of potential DAGs. Recent Bayesian approaches have addressed some of these challenges, yet they remain limited as they fail to encode dependencies between edges, and lack principled ways to incorporate domain knowledge as inductive biases during the search process. To overcome these limitations, we propose SVI-DAG, a structured variational inference approach to Bayesian causal discovery using observational data and prior beliefs that uses normalizing flows to model dependencies between edges, supporting expressive and multimodal posterior learning over DAGs. To mitigate mode seeking behaviour in evidence lower bound optimization and promote mode coverage, we use stein variational gradient descent to update the node potentials using a kernel in acyclicity space. We evaluate SVI-DAG against 5 state-of-the-art Bayesian DAG learning methods and demonstrate superior performance in uncertainty quantification while remaining competitive in terms of structural accuracy.

This paper develops procedures for nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing under covariate shift, where labelled data are drawn from a source population but goodness-of-fit is evaluated for a target population. The distribution mismatch is quantified by either a bounded moment condition or a sub-exponential tail condition on the target-to-source density ratio. Our method combines truncated importance-weighting kernel ridge regression with a multiplier bootstrap to construct confidence sets for the regression function. The truncation stabilizes the importance- weighting kernel ridge regression as well as the bootstrap calibration, making our approach applicable even when the density ratio has heavy tails. We prove nonasymptotic validity and sharpness of the resulting confidence sets under suitable operator compatibility conditions, and establish explicit error rates for coverage probability under specific conditions on the target- to-source density ratio and on the spectral decay of the kernel integral operator. Numerical experiments corroborate our theoretical findings.

Self-distillation (SD) has emerged as a compute-efficient alternative to reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards: a self-teacher, conditioned on privileged information (PI) about the answer such as a reference solution, supplies dense per-token supervision to a student that never sees it. Reported gains, however, come almost exclusively from narrow, low-difficulty settings, leaving open a basic question: as a lone objective, with no reward term, does SD teach anything? We reproduce SDPO's reported gains in its easy setting, then apply the identical setup to difficult tasks and find that it does not. Across question answering, mathematics, coding, and multi-turn agentic tool use, across reasoning modes, model sizes, and forms of PI, and under both the SDPO and OPSD recipes, the per-token loss falls steadily while validation accuracy does not improve and typically degrades. We explain this failure through a single causal chain from the loss to the model it produces. The chain begins with PI bias: having seen one particular reference solution, the teacher's per-token target is pulled toward that trajectory rather than toward correctness in general, an effect we quantify with a PI Bias Score. Trained to match this target everywhere, the student's objective becomes nearly blind to whether a rollout is correct, and the loss it assigns falls mostly on low-information tokens like stopwords, punctuation, uncertainty markers, rather than those that determine the answer; within correct rollouts the exploratory tokens incur the highest divergence, so it penalizes the hesitation that reasoning requires. The result is a flatter, less decisive student that is no better at reasoning: as a lone objective, SD optimizes a signal decoupled from task success.

Synthetic generation of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) sessions is challenged by two competing demands: adhering to strict therapeutic structure while modeling the resistant, unpredictable behavior of real patients. Existing script-based methods fail to capture dynamic therapeutic interactions, while multi-agent approaches struggle to adhere to CBT's sequential structure; both suffer from sycophancy, producing overly compliant patients that misrepresent real clinical settings. In this work we introduce ODRA, a novel framework for synthesizing therapy dialogues through a Chain-of-Thought (CoT) strategy grounded in foundational CBT guidelines (Beck, 2020). ODRA further incorporates a resistance orchestrator to solve patient sycophancy, which employs steering techniques to elicit behaviors aligned with their resistance level. Automated and expert evaluations show that ODRA significantly outperforms existing methods across therapeutic skills, CBT alignment, and patient behavioral fidelity, with licensed psychologists preferring ODRA sessions across 12 of 13 clinical metrics. Furthermore, models fine-tuned on our dataset demonstrate superior therapeutic performance against both cooperative and resistant patients, validating that explicit resistance modeling in synthetic training data directly translates to downstream clinical robustness.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have driven significant progress in robotic manipulation, yet they fundamentally struggle with the vision-override phenomenon. Driven by the severe modality imbalance between dense visual streams and sparse linguistic instructions, VLAs frequently fall prey to causal confusion. Instead of treating language as the primary causal driver, the policy entirely bypasses the original instruction by overfitting to spurious visual confounders, such as prominent objects or familiar layouts. To systematically alleviate this bias, we formalize the process of action generation as a Dual-path Deconfounding Graph (DDG) and propose CofactVLA, a novel causal intervention framework. By dynamically constructing a language-masked counterfactual branch within a single forward pass, CofactVLA isolates and neutralizes visual confounders through two synergistic mechanisms. First, Action-Level Orthogonal Projection Guidance (OPG) geometrically projects the factual velocity field away from the counterfactual visual bias during continuous flow matching, extracting the pure semantic intent. Second, Feature-Level Counterfactual Covariance Reduction (CCR) mathematically deconfounds latent representations by penalizing the positive eigenspace of the covariance difference, explicitly suppressing dominant visual shortcuts while preserving the causal language intent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CofactVLA establishes a new state-of-the-art across diverse simulation benchmarks. Beyond simulation, real-world robot experiments demonstrate the causal efficacy of our method in bridging the generalization gap, yielding a 52.3% absolute success rate gain under out-of-distribution scenarios.

With the growing adoption of artificial intelligence in high-stakes decision-making, identifying the causes of outcomes--particularly failures--and determining who is responsible has become a critical concern. In this work, we examine how well formal definitions of \textit{responsibility attribution}, grounded in the framework of \textit{actual causality}, align with human judgments of responsibility. To this end, we conduct a large-scale survey to elicit human judgments of responsibility in multi-agent sequential decision-making scenarios, using a modified version of the card game Goofspiel. We evaluate multiple responsibility attribution methods, assess their alignment with human judgments about responsibility, and identify factors that significantly shape responsibility judgments. While no single responsibility attribution method consistently aligns with human responses, our findings highlight key factors that influence human responsibility judgments, including agent-specific biases and amount of information available to agents during decision-making.

Causal perception occurs when agents with competing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) of the same system infer different probability distributions, including the hypothetical distributions implied by each agent's SCM under the same set of interventions. It shapes how agents reason about the system and how they perceive its fairness. Causal perception is a promising probabilistic framework, but it has remained purely theoretical. This work provides the first implementation of the causal perception framework of Álvarez and Ruggieri (2025). We operationalize structural (agents disagree on the causal graph) and parametrical (agents agree on the causal graph but disagree on its weights) causal perception. We design algorithms for computing interventional and counterfactual distributions and propose suitable distance measures to quantify the disagreement. Using the German Credit dataset, we illustrate how causal perception affects accuracy and fairness in a multi-expert decision setting. We show that the perception verdict is sensitive to the choice of distance metric and threshold. We also show that causal perception changes fairness assessments and threshold-based decisions. Bias proves situated with respect to the agent's SCM, demonstrating that competing worldviews in fairness problems cannot be ignored.

Causal Discovery (CD) from observational data faces two fundamental challenges. First, purely statistical methods often lack the power to resolve structural ambiguities in low-sample regimes. Second, although LLM-assisted hybrid approaches improve structure recovery through semantic reasoning, the influence of that reasoning on individual edge decisions remains largely opaque. Consequently, existing hybrid methods fail to satisfy a fundamental requirement: explaining why a particular edge is included or excluded in the learned directed acyclic graph (DAG). This is critical in real-world applications, where no ground-truth DAG exists and every structural decision must be independently justified. We formalize this requirement as decision traceability, requiring every inferred edge to be supported by auditable statistical evidence, Markov Blanket consistency, or explicit domain reasoning. We propose GENESIS, an explainable hybrid CD framework that decomposes graph construction into interpretable decision points. GENESIS first identifies and scores three-node structural motifs, including chains, forks, and colliders, to establish transparent structural priors, then progressively refines the graph by integrating these priors with observational evidence, invoking domain knowledge only when statistical evidence is insufficient. By design, every edge decision is resolved through an auditable source of evidence. Experiments show that GENESIS achieves 100% decision traceability across all settings, establishing explainability as a first-class objective in causal discovery. Despite this additional requirement, GENESIS consistently outperforms purely statistical CD methods on the majority of benchmark datasets across all sample regimes in terms of Structural Hamming Distance (SHD), while achieving performance comparable to state-of-the-art LLM-assisted approaches.

Explaining the predictions of neural networks is a central challenge in trustworthy AI. Existing explanation methods, such as those based on feature attribution or minimal sufficient sets, typically treat input features as independent, which can yield misleading explanations when inputs exhibit structured dependencies. We address this by formalizing explanations as Halpern-Pearl (HP) actual causes, modeling input dependencies using Boolean Structural Causal Models (SCMs). We compute HP causes by applying bound propagation and branch-and-bound techniques, while providing formal guarantees of completeness and minimality. Our experiments show that we substantially outperform brute-force and ILP baselines in scalability, and outperform heuristic search as graph size grows, computing all minimal actual causes on instances with search spaces of up to $2.3\times10^{13}$ candidate (cause, contingency) pairs, on SCMs with up to 28 nodes, within a 180s per-instance budget. In a case study, we further show that ignoring input dependencies inflates the number of reported causes, 14.9% of which are spurious under our SCM.

Causal diagnostic models must explain how conclusions follow from evidence because diagnoses guide repairs and treatments. Yet serious cases are scarce, records rarely contain reasoning paths, and data transfer poorly across configurations, complicating local deployment. We present DiagLoop, a counterfactual data flywheel that converts codified physical relations or clinical guidelines, authored once per mechanism family, into training supervision beyond recorded cases. A training-only teacher proposes counterfactual worlds by varying causes, contexts, and observations, while an independent hybrid checker admits only valid worlds. The student reasons through symptom abstraction, causal-chain construction, and root-cause attribution. Stage-specific criteria identify its earliest failure. For nonterminal failures, a bounded repair probes downstream competence, and the resulting weakness profile guides subsequent data generation. Stage-localized reinforcement learning updates only the model-generated continuation, while replay and preservation reduce forgetting. The same criteria govern admission, attribution, reward, and regeneration through checks separate from the proposer. Using only synthesized scenarios and no case-level expert reasoning annotations, the resulting 8B model improves strict path correctness over the strongest conventional baseline. Gains are 11.6 points across eight industrial systems and 5.5 points across ten disease categories. Gains over a deranged-routing control are 3.9 and 2.3 points, respectively. The model also exceeds the evaluated proprietary references in both domains, even when they receive few-shot examples or the specification in context.

Many critical reasoning tasks, including clinical diagnosis, legal judgment, and industrial fault diagnosis, require step-dependent causal chains in which early errors propagate and correct conclusions can mask invalid reasoning. Although large language models perform well on such tasks, privacy, latency, and controllability motivate distillation into locally deployable models. Standard trajectory imitation does not correct process errors on the student's own rollout distribution. We propose CausalOPD, a curriculum online process distillation framework. A knowledge-augmented teacher first provides trajectories grounded in domain-specific causal rules, entity relations, and structural constraints. The student then generates on-policy trajectories, and the teacher identifies the first wrong step, defined as the earliest transition that verifiably violates available constraints. Starting from the verified prefix, short-horizon reinforcement learning repairs this localized failure. A causal-stage curriculum advances from evidence-level to mechanism-level and conclusion-level errors, following their propagation order. Across three domains, CausalOPD improves average path correctness by 23.4 percentage points over sequence-level online process distillation and reduces the right-label-wrong-reasoning rate from 15.7% to 4.4%. The domain-specific 8B students also surpass both evaluated proprietary references in path correctness across all domains.

Self-consistency assumes the most frequent answer among sampled reasoning traces is the most reliable, but this can fail in causal reasoning: samples often repeat the same confounding error, and votes fragment across multiple valid answers, letting an invalid answer win despite a valid minority trace. We introduce CALVER (Causal Axiom-Level VERification), a training-free symbolic verifier that scores structured traces against Pearl's causal criteria, including -separation, backdoor adjustment, and intervention, and selects the highest-scoring candidate without consulting a reference answer. On CLEAR find-one-valid queries that admit multiple graph-valid answers, CALVER reaches 42.1% where plurality, a reward model, an LLM judge, and model confidence remain near 30% on identical frozen pools. Scaling the judge to 72B does not close the gap. In an audited clean-core subset, 11 of 21 graph-valid CALVER selections differ from the benchmark's listed answer while still satisfying the requested predicate. The advantage widens with the sampling budget and reproduces across ten published Bayesian networks, a second model family, and settings where the model must build the graph from text. CALVER also improves thresholded average-treatment-effect decisions against exact ground truth, generalizes to logic under a truth-table checker, and scores each candidate in milliseconds on CPU. CALVER needs only a causal structure, supplied outright or built from the text; wherever that holds, selection can aggregate via causal validity.

Accurate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is critical for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet traditional probability-based metrics often fail to capture the model's true epistemic state. While recent mechanistic approaches leverage hidden state dynamics, they typically aggregate residual stream updates, conflating the distinct roles of parametric memory (Feed-Forward Networks) and contextual processing (Attention). We argue that this aggregation obscures fine-grained mechanistic conflicts, such as memory-context misalignment, that are fundamental indicators of uncertainty. To address this, we introduce \textbf{D}ecoupled \textbf{U}pdate \textbf{D}ynamics \textbf{(DUD)}, a framework that explicitly decouples FFN and Attention contributions via noise-induced causal interventions. By quantifying the independent restoration capabilities of each module, we construct a dual-stream dynamic profile that captures the model's internal fragility. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DUD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both uncertainty estimation and calibration, while exhibiting superior cross-dataset generalization, validating decoupled dynamics as a robust proxy for model faithfulness.

We study contextual dynamic pricing with arbitrary covariate sequences and bounded, possibly nonbinary purchase quantities. Demand follows a semiparametric surplus-index model with an unknown linear valuation parameter and an unknown Hölder-smooth response. We impose neither concavity nor strong unimodality on revenue and allow nonunique optimal prices. We develop a pilot-corrected layered decision-partitioning policy that combines directional pilot estimation, local polynomial learning, predictable data assignment, and global action elimination. Pilot correction removes the first-order effect of valuation-parameter error, while permanent labels enable concentration under adaptive sampling. The policy attains the minimax smoothness-dependent horizon rate up to logarithmic factors; a matching lower bound already holds for a constant-context binary-demand subclass.

Causal inference has traditionally centered on scalar outcomes: whether a patient recovers, how much a worker earns, or how many visits a website receives. Modern studies increasingly ask causal questions about outcomes with richer form, such as clinical notes, open-ended survey responses, and images. A hospital may want to know how an AI documentation tool changes the notes physicians write, or how a nurse training program alters what patients say in survey responses. For such outcomes, the usual average treatment effect is ill-defined: one cannot meaningfully subtract one text or image from another. To this end, we propose a causal query for unstructured outcomes. The key idea is to learn what features of the outcome are most causally affected by the treatment, which we call the maximally contrasting feature (MCF). To estimate the MCF, we learn a feature-scoring function that maps each outcome to a scalar and exposes the sharpest contrast between treated and control potential outcomes. We develop identification conditions and estimation algorithms for this query, and extend it to heterogeneous effects by allowing the feature-scoring function to depend on observed covariates. We also handle settings where both the treatment and the outcome are unstructured. Empirical studies on text and images show that the algorithm recovers salient aspects of an outcome changed by a treatment.

Counterfactual inference approaches for sequential decision-making typically assume deterministic causal models, where all randomness stems from latent variables. However, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are inherently stochastic. We address this by formalising counterfactual policy optimisation under probabilistic nondeterministic causal models, which properly separates latent confounding from irreducible stochasticity, and here propose a first practical optimisation problem for identifying robust counterfactual policies under a sensitivity analysis framework. We validate our approach on a sepsis treatment simulator, where diabetes status acts as a hidden global confounder.

Comparing stochastically trained models requires estimating both a performance difference and its uncertainty from repeated runs. We study whether training logs from those same runs can make such comparisons more precise. Because training-log covariates are produced during training rather than measured before it, we use arm-specific covariate adjustment: each model is adjusted only with statistics from its own runs, and the raw mean difference remains the reported effect. In a vision study spanning three architectures and three datasets, simple adjustments based on early training logs often reduce uncertainty in model comparisons. The main limitation is covariate selection. Broadly searching the log pool for the most correlated statistic often adds more noise than it removes, even when useful statistics exist in hindsight. Training logs therefore appear useful for more precise model comparisons, but only when the adjustment avoids large selection noise.

Multivariate time series imputation is fundamental to downstream analysis, yet modeling inter-variable dependencies with incomplete observations remains challenging. Existing methods learn global dependencies across samples or dynamic local dependencies per sample. Global dependencies are stable but adapt poorly to sample variations and temporal non-stationarity, whereas local dependencies are adaptive yet unreliable when observations are insufficient, causing erroneous information propagation. To address these limitations, we propose GLAIM, a Global-Local Adaptive Inter-variable Dependency Modeling framework for multivariate time series imputation. GLAIM comprises two complementary components. The Stable Global Dependency Constructor derives robust global inter-variable dependencies from complementary temporal representations, providing a stable backbone less affected by sample-specific missingness and noise. The Sample-Conditioned Dependency Refiner adapts this backbone to each sample and time step using its temporal state and available observations, enabling reliable local refinement under incomplete observations. Extensive experiments on nine real-world datasets demonstrate that GLAIM achieves state-of-the-art performance under random and block missingness, remains robust to missing-rate shifts, and benefits from its complementary global and local components. Code is available at https://github.com/LuRenjias/GLAIM.

Traffic police gestures are safety-critical perception cues for autonomous driving. A deployable recognizer must infer commands causally from continuous full-frame video, remain stable around transitional arm motion, and avoid over-trusting corrupted pose measurements. This study presents RSC-GestureNet, a reliability-aware selective causal recognizer, for Chinese traffic police gestures. The model treats pose confidence as a first-class signal: unreliable joints are down weighted during graph reasoning, temporal evidence is aggregated causally, and calibrated predictions are selectively emitted through a reliability-aware inference rule. We further introduce CTPGesture-C, a reproducible feature-level corruption benchmark with seven pose/RGB degradation families, and an RGB-level diagnostic in which corrupted frames are reprocessed by MediaPipe before recognition. On the complete official CTPGesture v1 split (134,424 labeled frames and 33,451 causal windows), RSC-GestureNet achieves 93.33+-0.24% accuracy, 91.71+-0.27% macro-F1, 91.69+-0.29% online macro-F1, 98.80+-0.07% Early@10, 0.153+-0.013 s TTC, and the best robust macro-F1 among evaluated methods. Under the same split and causal protocol, it exceeds reproduced traffic-specific MD-GCN and HLP-GCN baselines by 3.23-4.11 macro-F1 points and 2.15-3.07 online-F1 points. These results, together with calibration, selective-risk, statistical, adaptive-branching, and image-level re-extraction analyses, indicate that explicit pose-reliability modeling improves early, stable, and robust traffic-command recognition.

Estimating causal effects from real-world spatiotemporal data is challenging due to hidden confounders and interference. Standard causal identification methods assume conditional exchangeability given observed covariates, which fails whenever hidden confounders affect both treatment and outcomes - a common setting in domains such as climate, environmental policy, epidemiology, and regional economics. In this paper, we propose a novel spatiotemporal proximal causal inference framework that extends proximal identification theory to spatiotemporal settings. The proposed method jointly captures local and neighborhood-level confounding information by introducing treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies, and we derive a spatiotemporal outcome confounding bridge function that identifies the potential outcome without requiring direct recovery of the hidden confounder. We establish the identifiability of this bridge function under proxy exclusion restrictions and a spatiotemporal completeness condition, and show that the resulting estimator recovers the outcome through a proximal generalization of the g-computation formula. To operationalize this identification result, we propose a neural architecture that learns proxies via transformer-based spatiotemporal encoders - coupled with a conditional mutual information critic to enforce exclusion restrictions and a moment-matching network to guarantee that the learned bridge function satisfies the underlying identifying equation. We further introduce a stabilized weighting scheme to address treatment support imbalance. Experiments on synthetic datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves comparable performance to baseline causal inference methods, while providing, to our knowledge, the first theoretically grounded outcomes for the hidden confounding in the presence of spatiotemporal interference through a proximal causal inference framework.

Uplift modeling (conditional-average-treatment-effect estimation) drives personalized targeting, yet published uplift benchmarks frequently disagree on which estimator performs best; we show the disagreement is substantially about metrics, not models. UpliftBench evaluates 12 uplift estimators under an outer-test-isolated, multi-objective protocol across seven dataset families; its two findings are identified where a reference objective exists -- F1 on the standard continuous benchmark (IHDP), F2 in a within-sample case study on Jobs. On that benchmark, Qini shows no detectable alignment with effect accuracy -- across all 100 IHDP realizations its mean rank correlation with effect accuracy is +0.07, 95% CI [-0.03, +0.16] -- while AUUC is consistently more aligned (paired prefix-mean-AUUC-over-Qini gap +0.49 [+0.40, +0.59]; the shipped cumulative-gain AUUC aligns better still, +0.73). On Jobs, ranking metrics are structurally insufficient for a sign-threshold policy because they discard the score level; empirically, within the released split-rotation analysis direct policy-risk selection yields lower benchmark regret than random model selection while Qini, AUUC, and uplift-at-$k$ do not (14-15% regret). Calibrating the decision threshold removes 81% of the Qini-selection regret. Both findings are bounded, not universal: F1 is not detected on either validation family (the ACIC and Revenue-Synthetic gaps are both indistinguishable from zero), and F2 vanishes under a budgeted-value objective where rank suffices. UpliftBench releases versioned loaders, fixed protocols, result artifacts, and a reproducible living leaderboard; the public repository accompanies the paper.

Reweighting source samples to match a target covariate distribution is a standard response to distribution shift when generalizing evidence from one population to another. This strategy is well suited to deterministic, learnable covariate discrepancies, but can be insufficient when source--target population differences also contain changes beyond covariate shift or when estimation of the density-ratio weights is unstable. To address this challenge, we introduce a new model that allows non-systematic changes between two population laws after systematic shifts are accounted for. Such residual shift is modeled as random perturbations to the probability space that cannot be represented in a learnable way. In this way, we separate systematic shifts, treated as bias and corrected by reweighting, from residual random perturbations, treated as distributional uncertainty and handled through dataset pooling. Under pure random perturbations, this principle yields Augmented Inverse Distance Weighting (AIDW), which uses regression augmentation and variance-optimal dataset-level pooling. For mixed shifts, we develop Augmented Inverse Hybrid Weighting (AIHW), which interpolates between AIDW and standard augmented importance weighting. Both methods trade off sampling uncertainty and distributional uncertainty via a \emph{distributional distance} that describes the strength of random perturbations. We establish asymptotic properties of the methods, together with plug-in guidance for choosing tuning parameters and model diagnostic tools. Experiments on three real-world multi-site datasets demonstrate consistent reductions in mean-squared error compared with standard weighting baselines, along with substantially improved empirical coverage in settings where covariate-shift adjustment alone undercovers, showing the robustness of the proposed methods across diverse distribution shift scenarios.

Causal inference usually concerns a scalar treatment, yet in many problems the treatment is unstructured: a text, an image, or a sequence of clinical decisions. Consider an instructor writing a course description to attract more students: the treatment is the course description, and the outcome is enrollment. The standard target, the average treatment effect of fixing the treatment to one exact value versus another, runs into two problems. It cannot be estimated, because almost no exact description recurs across courses, leaving no comparable group from which to measure its effect; and it would be of little use even if it could, since no one wants every course to carry the same description. What the instructor actually wants to know is which features of a description raise enrollment, and which of those features can be acted on across many courses. To this end, we propose a causal query for unstructured treatments: the maximally influential feature (MIF), the feature of the treatment that most strongly influences the outcome. We formalize the MIF as a binary feature of the treatment, defined by a feature-scoring function, constrained so that both of its values stay well populated, and chosen to maximize the causal effect it induces. Turning the feature on shifts the distribution of treatments toward those that display it, turning it off shifts away, and the MIF effect contrasts the two average potential outcomes. We study identification conditions for the MIF, develop algorithms to estimate it, and make it actionable through a nudging algorithm that revises a treatment along the MIF into an outcome-improving version. We illustrate the MIF algorithm across applications in text, image, and dynamic treatment sequences.

Large Language Models (LLMs) perform strongly in English medical tasks but degrade substantially in Arabic, a gap widely attributed to limited training data. We systematically investigate this assumption via tuned lens probing and causal activation patching, and find that Arabic medical knowledge is present in intermediate model representations but fails to surface at the output. This mechanistic insight motivates a targeted adaptation strategy: rather than fine-tuning the full network, we propose Targeted Low-Rank Adaptation (TLoRA), restricted to the layer window where cross-lingual representations diverge, upstream of the output layers where the failure manifests. We evaluate TLoRA on multiple-choice medical QA, where our approach outperforms full-network LoRA, zero-shot, and few-shot baselines. We further evaluate it on short-answer generation and multi-turn clinical dialogue, where it performs competitively without the need for task-specific finetuning. We additionally introduce AraClinicDialog, a clinician-constructed Arabic medical dialogue benchmark in MSA with validated variants across four Arabic dialects. Together, these contributions demonstrate that mechanistic diagnosis can serve as a practical guide for targeted adaptation in underrepresented-language medical LLMs.

Environmental time-series causal discovery requires expert decisions about method choice, conditional-independence tests, lag horizons, sample-size adequacy, multiple-testing control, and evidence interpretation. Applied inconsistently across datasets, these choices yield graphs that cannot be compared, reproduced, or audited. We present AutoCause, an open-source Python workflow that records each decision, derives defaults from an extended causal-audit module, and admits domain-informed overrides. The workflow wraps four established causal-discovery methods from three families, adds non-causal reference models, and grades links by method-count support. On 145 datasets from DGP-Atlas, TimeGraph, and a topology-derived CausalRivers reference, the methods recover complementary parts of the reference graphs. Majority-supported links are more precise than single-method links on the synthetic benchmarks but not against river topology. AutoCause converts inconsistent expert practice into an auditable, repeatable analysis; causal interpretation remains with the analyst. Available at https://github.com/marcoruizrueda/autocause.

Interventional data is widely regarded as the gold standard for teaching models causal reasoning. We test this assumption in a fully controlled synthetic environment pitting observational correlation against causal effect, and find it fails instructively. In Simpson's-paradox worlds, where the two have systematically opposite signs, increasing the fraction of interventional samples in pretraining does not improve causal direction: the magnitude of the model's do()-response grows monotonically, yet its sign is copied from the observational context. What governs whether interventional evidence is used is not the training mixture but the evidence type present in the context at inference time. Under an identical training recipe, a purely observational context induces systematic sign reversal in 29/50 worlds, a mixed context in 19/50, while aligned interventional probes alone yield 41/50 correct. Erasing observational evidence from the context immediately releases the suppressed causal interpolation ability (ratio_true = +0.56); a four-state content manipulation shows the switch is content-mediated and graded. The suppression is stable across training seeds (11/11 strong reversals persist on a matched-protocol second seed) and robust as a rate at 0.93B parameters (31.8% vs. 6% reversals in the matched probe-only arm), even as absolute gains shrink four-fold. An external audit on CLadder exposes a learned positive-effect prior with a two-layer structure: sign-randomized retraining removes it in-distribution but not out-of-distribution. We summarize: the capability lives in the weights; the switch lives in the context, and activation patching localizes the switch to the middle layers' observational rows. We further quantify the sampling noise floor of probe-based causal evaluation and an evidence-averaging protocol that cuts sign errors from 26% to 9%.

Large-scale multivariate time series from heterogeneous IoT sensors demand accurate long-term forecasting for resource scheduling and predictive maintenance. While recent time series foundation models exhibit strong generalization, they rely on static parametric knowledge and lack dynamic access to external historical patterns during inference. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) offers a potential remedy, yet its application to time series forecasting is challenged by magnitude variations across heterogeneous sources and the mismatch between historical similarity and future consistency. We propose CrossRAG, a retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that integrates Shape-Aware Memory (SAM) with RevIN normalization for magnitude-robust shape-level retrieval, Future-Consistent Contrastive (FCC) learning to distinguish informative references from hard negatives with similar history but divergent futures, and Cross-Attention Temporal Fusion (CATF) to fuse retrieved historical--future reference pairs into the backbone's representations at the representation level. Experiments on seven public benchmarks show that CrossRAG consistently outperforms both parametric-only baselines and existing retrieval-augmented forecasting methods.

Double Machine Learning (DML) is a popular approach for treatment effect estimation in various settings, which allows a wide range of flexible machine learning methods to be used for nuisance parameter estimation while preserving valid inference. In practice, however, applied researchers must choose among many machine learning algorithms for nuisance models, and the impact of this choice on the variance estimation of DML is not well characterized. We conduct a comprehensive simulation study to compare the coverage probability of DML confidence intervals across different machine learning algorithms. In this study, we compare (1) analytical confidence intervals derived by DML theory versus (2) bootstrap confidence interval. We use a set of learners including ordinary least squares, LASSO, Random Forest, LightGBM, and Neural Networks under different data generation settings. We evaluate the performance across difference settings by bias, confidence interval width, and most importantly, coverage probability. Our results show substantial variability in coverage performance across analytical and bootstrap confidence intervals, highlighting that learner choice plays a critical role in reliable DML inference. Surprisingly, we find that in many settings, when sample size increases, the coverage probability of both DML analytical and bootstrap confidence interval decreases. We further investigate coverage probabilities using a real dataset on rural urban differences among U.S. counties. The real data analysis discovers that (1) the model performance still varies by the learner choices and (2) greater rurality has a statistically significant increasing effect on county level obesity prevalence.

Longitudinal causal studies often record histories as irregular functional fragments: laboratory values, physiologic signals, sensor streams, and image-derived summaries measured at unequal and informative times. Standard doubly robust estimators usually require scalar summaries, whereas sequence learners optimize prediction losses that need not stabilize the efficient influence function. We propose Doubly Robust Functional Representation Learning (DR-FRL), a cross-fitted workflow that turns irregular histories into estimand-targeted states for observed-history regimes. Functional and temporal encoders map point clouds and prior histories into states; nuisance heads estimate outcome, treatment, and censoring functions; and EIF-targeted validation, calibration, overlap, tail, and ablation diagnostics assess whether the state supports the estimating equation. If the selected state preserves the nuisance information needed by the EIF, representation error enters the same second-order product remainder as ordinary nuisance error, and the mean estimator is asymptotically linear under explicit rate, overlap, calibration, and stability conditions. Catoni aggregation is treated separately as a bounded-influence point estimator, not a replacement for Wald inference. Simulations show gains when functional confounding is high-dimensional, measurement is informative, support is weak, or pseudo-outcomes are heavy-tailed. A VitalDB audit shows that DR-FRL can use irregular laboratory point clouds and deliver a useful negative finding: for this ICU-disposition endpoint, scalar laboratory summaries already carry much endpoint-relevant information.

Computer-use agents often fail on transient GUI events because they produce the correct action only after the relevant window has already closed. We identify the main cause as expensive autoregressive decoding on the decision-time critical path. We propose Adaptive Anticipatory Policy Trees (AAPT), which eliminates this delay without modifying the underlying model. During idle screen periods, the same frozen multimodal model constructs a bounded conditional policy tree with observable guards, pre-authorized actions, and branch-specific deadlines. The tree is sized to cover the model's own decoding latency. When an event occurs, a lightweight observer matches change-gated frames to a prepared branch and immediately executes the corresponding action without generating new text. In paired trials with pre-registered endpoints and exact McNemar tests, AAPT improves the success rate from 0.50 to 0.79 within a contested decision window ($p=1.8\times10^{-3}$), while producing no incorrect actions. Both open-loop and predict-and-replan baselines achieve zero success because they still decode during execution. A preparation-time sweep shows that the gain emerges where the latency-based tree-sizing rule predicts, and ablations reveal three key requirements: fast observer decoding, valid tree planning, and accurate branch routing. A pre-registered oracle probe rejects our initial hypothesis and instead points to branch routing as the causal bottleneck. We further reproduce the effect on an independent general-purpose multimodal model over 126 paired trials ($p=4.9\times10^{-13}$). On an external benchmark, AAPT matches the overall performance of a reactive baseline, although the two methods exhibit complementary strengths. Together, these results suggest that AAPT performs best when candidate actions can be enumerated in advance, whereas reactive execution remains stronger when they cannot.

Causal discovery in multivariate time series data is challenging due to complex interactions, high dimensionality, and nonlinear dependencies among variables. Existing methods often struggle to capture these complexities, resulting in inaccurate causal structures. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework that leverages self-attention mechanisms within the transformer architecture for causal discovery. Our approach introduces a novel inverted causal self-attention mechanism (CSAM) that emphasizes latent and indirect causal relationships by inverting tokens and inducing sparsity in attention scores, focusing on significant causal interactions and reducing spurious correlations. Additionally, we develop a global causal algorithm to identify global causal links, providing a holistic metric for causal influence, along with a causal verification module to ensure robustness in the identified causal relationships, enhancing the reliability of our framework. Experiments on both linear and nonlinear datasets, along with ablation studies and sensitivity analyses, show that our framework outperforms existing methods, demonstrating its potential for causal discovery in complex multivariate time series.

Structural causal models are the standard language for reasoning about interventions and counterfactuals, but they describe static variables, typically measured once, and usually forbid cyclic dependencies. Many systems we care about, such as patients, climates, and economies, instead evolve continuously in time, are observed at irregular time points, and contain feedback loops. We argue that neural operator learning provides a natural foundation for causal reasoning in this setting, and propose Orca, a framework in which each node of the causal graph is a function of time and each mechanism is a learned map between function spaces. We extend existing neural operator architectures to express causal mechanisms: a mechanism computes the function value of a node from its parent nodes by taking several parent functions as input, respects the arrow of time, and treats latent exogenous noise as a function that can be inferred and reused for counterfactuals. We formalize the model class and demonstrate counterfactual reasoning on synthetic continuous-time examples. Code is available at https://github.com/gerritgr/orca

Identical language-model answers can arise from hidden states that support different future computations, so current-answer probes do not establish a reusable internal interface. We introduce forked futures: future operations are sampled only after a prefix state has formed, and states are compared through the response distributions induced by those operations. This yields an empirical causal quotient over hidden states without requiring researcher-specified latent labels. Shared, Local, Mixture, and Distributed interfaces then compete under prequential causal description length subject to future-signature fidelity and matched capacity constraints. In the two detailed model evaluations, Shared has the lowest held-out description length, with gains of 0.216 nats on Qwen2.5-1.5B and 0.294 nats on Llama-3-8B, while maintaining tightly clustered mean future-signature distortion; a five-backbone sweep preserves the positive direction of Sharedness Gain. The figure-aligned transplantation analysis gives Shared the strongest joint target-correctness, locality, copy-preservation, and composite profile, and API-aligned paths mediate 0.749 of the target effect versus 0.150 for matched null paths. In the blind four-class model-organism test, 14/16 architectures are recovered, with one observed non-Shared to Shared error among 12 non-Shared organisms. These results support an economical reusable causal interface within the tested operation banks, while keeping the claim explicitly conditional on the candidate architectures, interventions, and held-out futures.

Key-value (KV) cache management through compression and eviction strategies has emerged as an important research direction in recent years. Computational demands of large language models (LLMs) and their multi-modal variants during output generation can be partially alleviated by caching previous key and value calculations needed by subsequent scaled dot-product attention operations. However, this leads to another problem: the size of the resulting KV cache grows linearly with context length and quickly consumes all available GPU memory when either the prompt or the generated output are long. KV cache management periodically prunes entries from the cache thereby reducing its memory footprint while attempting to retain sufficient information for accurate generation. A by-product is faster inference speed. We propose a simple yet effective KV eviction scheme motivated by the insight that past tokens which can be well-predicted from more recent tokens are redundant and their associated keys and values can be removed from the cache. To score entries for eviction we run the model on the tokens in their original order, reusing the key and value representations already stored in the KV cache, and applying a counter-causal attention mask so that each position attends only to its future context. This is in-distribution, tied directly to the actual cache contents, and requires no additional training. To further reduce cost, we additionally propose a fast single-layer approximation that restricts the counter-causal pass to the last transformer layer, achieving a significant speedup per refresh cycle at marginal accuracy cost. We evaluate our strategy on various open-source LLMs and benchmark datasets showing competitive or improved performance over other state-of-the-art methods. Reference code is available at https://github.com/metacognitionai/counter_causal.

Modern telecommunication, cloud, and microservice systems emit correlated alarm cascades when components fail. Root cause analysis (RCA) aims to identify the small set of alarms that initiate each cascade. A common approach learns a causal graph from observational logs and predicts all zero-in-degree alarms in each incident-induced subgraph. However, the learned graph remains fixed and cannot benefit from expert diagnoses of historical incidents. We close this loop with EvoCause. Expert labels constrain which alarms should be source nodes but do not specify the edge edits needed to satisfy those constraints. EvoCause uses a large language model (LLM) to propose semantically plausible graph edits, while deterministic code validates node identities and acyclicity and retains the best graph on a labeled alignment set. At test time, the refined graph alone produces transparent predictions without an LLM call. We also release TeleRCA, an expert-annotated benchmark from a production telecommunication network containing $485{,}681$ alarm events spanning $194$ alarm types over $5{,}621$ resources. On synthetic data, EvoCause initialized with the PC causal discovery algorithm outperforms the unrefined PC baseline, raising Node F1, Case EM, and Graph F1 by $11.59$, $9.40$, and $4.59$ percentage points, respectively, while reducing nSHD by $0.2379$. On TeleRCA, replacing human-readable alarm titles with anonymous identifiers lowers Node F1 and Case EM by $6.12$ and $8.04$ percentage points, respectively, indicating that alarm-name information contributes to graph refinement.

The same diagnostic result can support or challenge one causal claim yet fail to address another when the claims concern different populations, outcomes, estimands, pathways, or identifying assumptions. When the evidence and target vary together, a correct answer may reflect favorable or adverse wording, lexical overlap, or a familiar diagnostic pattern rather than matching the evidence to the causal question. We introduce paired prompts that repeat the same diagnostic evidence verbatim while changing the causal target. Each prompt is labeled Favors, Challenges, Unresolved, or Wrong Target according to how the evidence bears on the causal question. A pair is recovered only when both prompts are classified correctly. Using linear readouts trained on a separate development set, we analyze the final-token hidden state from the penultimate transformer block of Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, Qwen3-8B, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct. On the 49-pair primary benchmark spanning nine diagnostic families, balanced accuracy ranges from 0.654 to 0.659 and 18-21 pairs are recovered. Two independent human reviewers assigned the same label to 95 of the 98 prompts (96.9%). Across checkpoints, balanced accuracy and complete-pair recovery exceed permutation nulls that preserve development scenario groups. In Qwen2.5, full-prompt balanced accuracy exceeds both restricted inputs, with paired-bootstrap intervals for both differences above zero. Readouts trained without development examples from the evaluated diagnostic family recover 21 pairs, including at least one in each of the nine families. The hidden-state readout exceeds a linear classifier on answer-option logits and text baselines in balanced accuracy and recovered pairs. These results show that the hidden state contains linearly decodable information about whether diagnostic evidence favors, challenges, or fails to address the causal target.

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are widely used as decision-making models, commonly specified over factored state spaces through state variables and their valuations. The exponential blowup in the number of states renders many reasoning tasks in MDPs challenging. Abstractions are promising techniques to reduce MDPs and thus mitigate scalability issues. In this work, we introduce a notion of causality on factored MDPs and a novel property-driven causal abstraction technique that retains many characteristics of the original MDP model. For this, we rely on causal relations over state variable predicates and identify those states that share the same reasons for fulfilling or violating a given abstraction property. We theoretically and empirically compare various causal MDP abstractions using different model types such as MDPs, interval MDPs, or stochastic games. Our evaluation demonstrates the potential of our approach: For several standard benchmarks, we obtain small abstractions that allow us to compute near-optimal policies for the original MDP. Furthermore, our causal abstractions often generalize to related large-scale MDP models.

Medical world models aim to learn a latent state of patient or organ physiology and a transition function that forecasts how that state evolves under interventions, supporting downstream tasks from imaging-based diagnosis to digital-twin treatment planning. Two failure modes threaten the reliability of such models in clinical deployment: (i)\emph{covariate shift}, because training data are fragmented across hospitals, scanners, and time, so the feature distribution seen by the latent-dynamics predictor differs across fragments and from the distribution at deployment; and (ii)\emph{confidence misalignment}, because multi-step forecasts are often overconfident exactly where clinical risk is highest. We argue that both problems admit a unified treatment via a single lightweight regularisation objective, \textbf{CalTwin}, which combines a Fisher-Information-based shift penalty adapted from our prior work on fragmented covariate-shift remediation~\cite{khan2025mitigating,khan2025causal} with a Confidence Misalignment Penalty adapted from our prior work on calibrated vision-language classification~\cite{khan2025confidence}, applied here to a GRU-based medical world model's latent transition predictor. We derive the combined objective, establish which proof steps transfer from the classification setting without modification and which require adaptation, and evaluate it on the PhysioNet 2019 Sepsis Challenge, treating the two hospital systems as sequential training fragments and the unseen system as an out-of-distribution test. CalTwin reduces OOD next-step latent-state MSE by 9.1% relative to the no-penalty baseline (FIM penalty alone accounts for 7.0%); the ECE reduction from the Confidence Misalignment Penalty is real but small (0.7% for CalTwin, 1.3% for CMP alone).

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to targeted interventions, such as personalized promotions and precision medicine. We focus on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), a standard estimand for characterizing such heterogeneity. Even under standard identification conditions, finite-sample CATE estimation requires learning the nuisance structure for covariate adjustment and treatment-effect heterogeneity, often together with an effective representation of X. Raw numerical and categorical encodings can leave semantic relations and higher-order interactions implicit, making this joint task locally unstable. A motivating study further shows that this instability appears through partially separable assignment- and heterogeneity-side channels. Building on this observation, we propose CURL (Causal Uncertainty-guided Representation Learning), a plug-in adapter that uses estimator uncertainty to allocate pretrained semantic capacity to locally unstable units. CURL queries a frozen LLM through two role-conditioned prompts, constructs assignment- and heterogeneity-oriented representations from the observed covariates, and routes them through separated pathways. On four benchmarks, CURL improves ten host learners in most settings, while ablation, refinement-dynamics, route-reassignment, and probe analyses support the intended design and roles of the two channels.

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs) has renewed interest in agent-based modeling (ABM). However, current LLM-based ABM research faces several key challenges: modeling evolving agent-environment interactions, enabling flexible counterfactual reasoning, and automating simulation workflows for scientific research. In this paper, we propose Eco3S, a socio-economic system simulation framework for economic research and policy analysis that addresses these challenges through three key mechanisms: (1) Co-evolving Environment Design, a bidirectional feedback loop where agents and the environment co-evolve, producing realistic emergent behaviors; (2) Structural Causal Simulation, a structural causal model (SCM)-inspired counterfactual mechanism that allows flexible interventions for diverse causal inference tasks; (3) Simulation-Analysis-Refinement Paradigm, a self-corrective mechanism that iteratively refines experimental designs based on prior simulation results. Experiments on diverse economic scenarios confirm \textit{Eco3S}'s effectiveness in replicating multiple established economic studies (canal decay, origins of governance, and information propagation) and phenomena across domains. Additional results further demonstrate its scalability and generalizability, highlighting the framework's potential for rigorous economic research and policy-making.