Change

Identifying technological trends is a core scientometric task, yet traditional frequency-based approaches struggle to capture substantial meaning shifts of domain-specific terms. We hypothesise that contextual embeddings can complement frequency dynamics to effectively track diachronic semantic change. We compare frequency and embedding-based approaches across Astrophysics and NLP corpora spanning from 2010 to 2024. Candidate terms are extracted using KeyBERT (utilizing SciBERT as its underlying language model) and filtered for significant frequency increases using Fisher's exact test. These terms are then evaluated for genuine semantic shift by domain experts to establish ground-truth labels. To quantify semantic drift, each term's contextual embedding ''clouds'' from the two discrete periods are compared using multiple metrics: cosine distance, average pairwise distance, Hotelling-type T 2 , and maximum mean discrepancy. Results indicate that frequency-based methods align slightly better with human judgments of ''trend-related terms'' than semantic metrics (Precision@50 of 0.62 vs 0.60 in Astrophysics). The two signals show a correlation of around 0.6. Several terms identified exclusively by embedding metrics (e.g., ''primordial black holes'') represent critical conceptual developments invisible to pure frequency analysis. These findings indicate that semantic metrics may capture complementary information, highlighting the value of integrating contextual embeddings into scientometric trend analysis.

A radiology report can already answer a clinical question, so it is hard to tell whether a vision-language model also uses the image. ModaLens, a paired image-swap audit, measures how report availability changes image sensitivity: MedGemma-27B on 3,199 paired MIMIC-CXR cases from 293 patients, all 14 questions per case (13 finding-specific and one composite), each image replaced by one from another study, usually of the same patient, with question and report fixed. Under an explicit answer instruction, the model's generated answer changes on 4.26 percent of trials with the report and 20.94 percent without it, a paired increase of 16.7 points (patient-clustered 95 percent CI 15.6 to 17.7), so report availability reduces image-swap sensitivity under this protocol; the original prompt with a lowercase first-token readout gives 4.70 percent against 17.07 percent, and substitutions also move continuous answer scores where the binary prediction does not change. The labels are derived from reports, which limits conclusions about visual correctness; the direction replicates in two further model lineages. Code, the exact prompts and a run record for every number are at https://github.com/criticaldata/MODALENS.

Procedural memory lets language agents reuse successful routines, but reuse presumes that a stored routine remains applicable. We study what happens when that presumption is deliberately violated. The study combines a retrospective, human-assisted interface-adaptation case from BrowserGym TimeWarp with controlled frozen-memory comparisons on synthetic shopping decisions. During the documented WebShop V1-V6 development path, interface-specific code was adapted while the separately stored high-level procedure was not reported to change; this phase does not constitute an autonomous memory-agent evaluation. In the controlled phase, an early pilot produced one task on which two memory conditions selected a more expensive item while the no-memory condition selected the reference minimum. Follow-up probes did not establish a recurring row-order or identity-binding pattern. We then tested four forms of mismatch: changed quantities, a different evidence representation, a conflict between local and global optimization, and distributed promotion evidence, across 32 formal cells. Each cell used one temperature-0 generation with the same local qwen3:8b configuration and no adaptive retry. Across these pairs, none of the predefined diagnostic interference signatures appeared on the tasks for which they were defined when current-task evidence was explicit and sufficient. The result identifies a tested region of non-interference: a procedural memory can be mismatched without becoming behaviorally disruptive. It does not establish general safety or a mechanism. The remaining question is which additional conditions turn applicability mismatch into observable, memory-caused error.

Pixel-level annotation of fixed traffic-camera imagery is expensive, while crosswalk models trained from street-level imagery face a substantial viewpoint and appearance shift when applied to elevated CCTV. We investigate a data-efficient target-domain pipeline using 241 manually annotated CCTV images and 5,926 unlabeled CCTV frames. A source-domain experiment trains a 31.0M-parameter custom U-Net on 3,300 first-person-view (FPV) images and obtains 93.05% IoU on its 330-image FPV test split. This result is a source baseline, not transferred performance: the released CCTV notebook instantiates a 42.0M-parameter DeepLabV3-ResNet50 from torchvision weights, and no compatible mapping from the U-Net checkpoint is implemented. Training on 201 manual CCTV images and selecting on 40 held-out manual masks yields 88.91% IoU. The model then predicts all unlabeled frames; image-level certainty and a largest-component area prior rank the candidates, and the top 1,000 attain mean certainty 0.976 and mean combined score 0.988. A repository audit shows that the reported second-stage 98.52% IoU was measured on a 150-image split containing only teacher-generated pseudo-masks. Because of a directory-layout mismatch, the executed combined-data loader found zero manual samples and split 1,000 pseudo-labeled samples into 850 training and 150 evaluation samples. We therefore report 98.52% as internal pseudo-label agreement rather than human-ground-truth accuracy. The defensible target-domain result is 88.91% IoU on the 40 manual validation images. Batch-one FP32 inference at 512 x 512 requires 12.98 ms, corresponding to 77.03 FPS, on an NVIDIA RTX A6000 48 GB GPU. These findings support the practicality of confidence-and-geometry filtering while also showing why pseudo-label evaluation must remain isolated from the labels used for self-training.

Suppose we are given an ordered sequence of independent data whose distribution changes $K$ times at unknown locations, for some unknown $K \geq 0$. In this paper, we study the problem of performing distribution-free inference on $K$. First, we show an impossibility result: any distribution-free upper confidence bound on $K$ must be trivial and uninformative. Then, using conformal $p$-values, and under only the assumption that the data segments induced by the changepoints are exchangeable (within themselves) and mutually independent, we construct a finite-sample valid lower confidence bound on $K$, which we call the Conformal LOwer bound on Changepoint Count (CLOCC). We show that CLOCC is the only feasible way to provide a lower bound on $K$ under the stated assumptions, a property we refer to as its universality. We provide practical guidelines for choosing score functions that yield efficient and tight lower bounds. We evaluate CLOCC in several synthetic and real-data experiments, where it provides informative lower bounds on $K$, demonstrating its practical applicability.

Monolithic world models predict the entire next state at every step, spending capacity re-predicting the static majority of a scene and injecting error into it. We ask whether explicitly modeling change (a per-object change gate plus a residual delta head that perturbs only the objects the gate flags) is a more effective and interpretable bias for physical prediction and control. On a MuJoCo tabletop pushing benchmark scaling from 3 to 8 objects, the sparse/residual model predicts next-state poses 2.5 to 4.6 times more accurately than a dense multilayer perceptron at 8.6 to 11.1 times fewer parameters, sustains change-detection F1 of 0.80 to 0.87 where the dense baseline is degenerate, transfers across object counts with zero retraining (99.4 percent F1 retention), and reaches about 90 percent of its full-data accuracy with a quarter of the data. In autoregressive rollout it compounds far less error, hugging the no-motion floor while the dense model drifts. Finally, inside a sampling-based planner, prediction-only models fail (though a true-simulator oracle solves the task with the identical planner, confirming the planner is sound), but once featurized and trained for the states a planner visits, the sparse model begins to plan (0.23 plus or minus 0.06 success over three seeds) while the dense monolith stays at zero at every seed. Modeling what changes, rather than re-predicting the whole world, is a simple, effective bias for object-centric physical AI; code, data generators, and all checkpoints will be released upon publication.

Assessments of cultural alignment have become an important part of the development and improvement of large language models (LLMs). However, the majority of the evaluations treat culture as a single snapshot, investigating only whether a model represents a society accurately at the current time. Research in cultural psychology shows that cultural values change at different rates and directions over time. Therefore, a "culturally aware" model should capture not only where a culture is today but also how it has changed over time. We examine this missing dimension of cultural awareness using more than two decades of the World Values Survey data. We compare the cultural trajectories of 40 countries with the trajectories produced by four state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLMs on the Inglehart-Welzel cultural map. Our findings show that while models generally place countries close to their most recent surveyed positions, these representations tend to lag several years behind that position. They also capture only part of the magnitude of the observed change, introduce movement where little occurred, and rarely reproduce reversals in countries' trajectories. These findings point to temporal flattening and suggest that snapshot accuracy can give an incomplete picture of cultural awareness in LLMs and have implications for model evaluation, representational harms, and the governance of culturally aware AI systems.

Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 prediction. Accuracy captures only the net effect of these changes on correctness, not how often predictions change; the Top-1 Prediction Change Rate (TPCR) instead measures this frequency. We propose Calibrator-Output Repair for Top-1 Decision Preservation (CORD), the first post-fit adapter to impose exact prediction preservation by repairing the full calibrated probability vector. From the original and calibrated outputs alone, CORD determines the mass assigned to the original top-1. The calibrated conditional distribution allocates the remaining mass over the other classes, yielding a repaired vector whose own argmax recovers the original prediction. On the calibration split, CORD coordinates the repaired masses to retain the calibrated outputs' mean mass on original predictions whenever attainable. The adapter alters neither the fitted calibrator nor its direct output, fits no additional supervised map, and requires no user- or validation-tuned hyperparameter. Across CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet-1K, CORD attains zero TPCR by construction and lowers mean ECE, NLL, and Brier relative to the corresponding direct outputs in every dataset; paired gains persist under distribution shift and across calibration-set sizes. CORD thus removes the preservation constraint from calibrator fitting and assigns exact recovery of the original decision to subsequent output repair. Our code is available at https://github.com/labhai/CORD.

Gait recognition has achieved remarkable progress, yet existing methods remain confined to rigid visual matching and often overlook the potential of natural language instructions for interactive retrieval. In this paper, we introduce Composed Gait Retrieval (CoGR), a novel task that retrieves a target gait sequence based on a reference sequence and a natural language modification query. To address the absence of existing datasets for this task, we design an automated annotation pipeline powered by large vision-language models (VLMs) to construct the first gait-language datasets: Language-Augmented CCPG and Language-Augmented CASIA-B. Building on this, we propose ComposeGait, an identity-anchored composition framework designed to prevent the identity drift that arises when generic composed retrieval follows the instruction but returns the wrong person. Its Part-aware Identity Adapter (PIA) aggregates multi-frame, part-aware identity evidence into a sample-specific ID token. We inject the ID tokens into both branches of a shared Q-Former to preserve identity, while excluding the ID-token outputs from the final retrieval embeddings. Joint identity and task-adapted composed-retrieval objectives optimize this space end to end. We evaluate ComposeGait on both benchmarks and show that it achieves the best R@1 among the compared methods, reaching 72.38% on Language-Augmented CCPG and 83.61% on Language-Augmented CASIA-B. These results establish ComposeGait as a strong baseline for CoGR. The datasets and code will be made publicly available.

Electronic Navigational Charts (ENCs) are geospatial vector datasets used in maritime navigation systems that represent hydrographic and navigational information such as depths, navigational aids, traffic schemes, and hazards. A major challenge for hydrographic offices is determining whether a given chart change poses a critical or non-critical risk to maritime safety. Existing workflows rely heavily on manual review and verification, which is labor-intensive, scales poorly with the volume of incoming chart updates, and introduces inter-analyst inconsistencies. To address this challenge, we propose a method for automated classification of ENC changes. We establish a baseline encoding scheme to translate complex vector data changes into a structured tabular format for classification models. The two crucial components of the encoding scheme include a spatial context encoder to enrich the change representations with surrounding geographic features, and an ENC attribute encoder to represent nuanced attribute-value descriptions of the modified objects. We evaluate the proposed approach across two distinct operational datasets, comprising 1,308 chart pairs containing over 100,000 individual chart modifications. Tuned gradient-boosted trees leveraging the proposed encoding schemes achieve accuracies of 90% and 94% on the two datasets, yielding a 5-7% improvement over default hyperparameterized models trained on encodings without spatial context and attribute embeddings. These results demonstrate the viability of integrating machine learning into operational geospatial pipelines to improve ENC maintenance and enhance maritime safety. Finally, our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of simple location and spatial aggregation methods, providing a foundation for evaluating more sophisticated spatial representation learning techniques for this application.

Conformal changepoint localization turns any score into a confidence set for the changepoint with finite-sample coverage. Coverage is universal; efficiency is not. The oracle score is a likelihood ratio, so practical scores estimate density ratios, and set length deteriorates under heavy tails, skewness, and distribution shift, where no length guarantee applies. We propose ARC (Augmented-Rank Conformalization), a family of scores depending on the data only through within-segment ranks: rank-CUSUM location and scale channels, their fixed combinations, and a lightweight neural score frozen after synthetic training. Every ARC score inherits finite-sample coverage for every frozen weight configuration, including random initialization and mistraining. The main result is an efficiency transfer theorem: the entire ARC confidence set is almost surely invariant under strictly increasing marginal transforms, so the set length distribution depends on the data pair only through its rank structure, and lengths certified once hold verbatim across its monotone orbit, whereas a plug-in score's length changes with every re-expression. Across different rank structures lengths do change, and are reported as such. Classical rank-test theory positions ARC as targeting the optimal invariant score at bounded cost. Simulations confirm nominal coverage for all scores, including sabotaged networks, identical sets under monotone transforms where plug-in scores inflate, and smooth degradation where plug-in sets become vacuous; on the well-log benchmark ARC localizes annotated shifts to three to five candidates and flags misfit by an empty set. Two boundaries are stated rather than hidden: serial dependence destroys exactness, and trend-type alternatives lie outside the piecewise-exchangeable model.

Longitudinal MRI enables sensitive measurement of structural brain change for studying aging and neurodegenerative disease. Deformable image registration is a key tool for estimating such change by computing a dense deformation that captures geometric differences between longitudinal scans. However, MRI scanners introduce geometric distortions that vary across acquisition systems and protocols, such as gradient non-linearity (GNL) distortion. Existing registration methods estimate a single field that conflates biological and technical effects, potentially biasing downstream morphometric measurements if distortions remain (partially) uncorrected. We propose $\texttt{DisMorph}$, a registration framework trained entirely on synthetic data that explicitly decomposes longitudinal deformation into technical and anatomical transforms. It predicts two dense deformations, each encoding one effect. During training, a novel generative model synthesizes both effects separately to provide disentanglement supervision, while domain randomization promotes generalization across imaging protocols. We evaluate our method in three complementary settings. On simulated data with known ground truth, our method detects anatomical change more accurately and consistently than conventional registration. On real image pairs that differ only by GNL distortion, our method assigns most geometric change to the distortion field, demonstrating specificity in the absence of anatomical change. On longitudinal Alzheimer's disease (AD) pairs, our method detects anatomical change in AD-related brain structures while identifying residual distortion left after standard correction. By disentangling MRI-induced distortion from biological change in the longitudinal deformation, our method paves the way for more accurate longitudinal morphometry in clinical settings where maintaining acquisition consistency is challenging.

The minimum change principle provides an information-theoretic characterization of the Bayes reversal channel in classical probability theory and has recently been proposed as a framework for extending Bayes' rule to quantum information theory. Using quantum relative entropy, we investigate a minimum change principle for the setting of quantum statistical inference. Specifically, we consider a forward process based on a classical-to-quantum preparation channel and a reverse process based on a quantum-to-classical measurement channel. We establish a closed-form characterization of measurements that are optimal for this principle, and this optimal measurement can be found via a dual formulation involving a single unconstrained Hermitian variable. This perspective allows us to recover some notable measurements within the same framework, including pretty good measurements and Fermi-Dirac thermal measurements, and we use it to discover a novel family that we call softmin thermal measurements. We further show that softmin thermal measurements arise as optimal solutions to entropy-regularized semidefinite optimization problems, demonstrating that they play a role for measurements analogous to that of thermal states in statistical mechanics. Finally, we prove an additivity property for the relative-entropy minimum change principle and investigate the performance of Fermi-Dirac thermal measurements for quantum hypothesis testing.

Bi-temporal remote-sensing disaster change captioning often needs to identify sparse and spatially localized changes across large pre- and post-event scenes and then translate them into coherent, factual descriptions. However, existing change captioning methods always follow an autoregressive decoding paradigm to generate the change description and thus an early misinterpretation of the changed object, event, or spatial relation becomes an irreversible premise for subsequent text, amplifying visual ambiguity into cascading factual errors. To address this limitation, we propose EchoChange, a multimodal discrete diffusion language model that formulates change captioning as iterative masked-token denoising rather than left-to-right generation. By repeatedly revising the entire caption while conditioning on the image pair, EchoChange can reconsider uncertain content and correct imperfect intermediate predictions. We further introduce draft-aware dual-pass training, a progressive masking curriculum, and confidence-guided remasking to align training with iterative inference. Extensive experiments on the RSCC benchmark show that EchoChange substantially outperforms both general-purpose and remote-sensing-specific baselines across lexical and semantic metrics. The EchoChange Project is at https://github.com/sundongwei/EchoChange_Project

Detecting a change in a multivariate series answers only the first of two questions; the operational question is which coordinates changed. Existing answers are incomplete. Block-level procedures certify predefined groups of coordinates under an additive union bound, high-dimensional variable-selection methods return interpretable rankings without error guarantees, and the post-detection inference literature controls error along the time axis rather than across coordinates. We propose ARM (Attribution by Rank Maxima), a wrapper that accepts a changepoint located by an arbitrary detector and returns the set of coordinates certified to have changed, each carrying a location or scale type label. ARM scores each coordinate by a max-over-splits rank statistic. Because this statistic dominates the corresponding statistic at the estimated split, the resulting certificate is invariant to the manner, and to the accuracy, of the changepoint estimate. Three finite-sample guarantees follow from within-coordinate ranks alone: per-coordinate validity under any detector; exact family-wise error control through a Westfall--Young joint permutation that preserves cross-coordinate dependence, with a fully distribution-free Holm fallback; and false discovery rate control under arbitrary coordinate dependence in high dimensions through Benjamini--Yekutieli and e-BH. In simulations, naive per-coordinate testing at the estimated changepoint inflates its family-wise error beyond $0.66$ as the dimension grows, whereas ARM maintains the nominal level while retaining validity under heavy tails, power in high dimensions, and accurate type labels. On five financial series surrounding the 2008 collapse, ARM attributes a scale change to every asset class and excludes injected control coordinates.

Detecting that a stream of high-dimensional embeddings has changed is usually framed as a choice of statistic. We give a scale law that constrains any moment-based choice and test it against topological alternatives. The law: certifying a feature of spatial scale eps carrying mass fraction f requires polynomial tests of degree N* >= log(1/f)/(2 eps), proved via the Chebyshev extremal problem; a Gauss-quadrature construction gives N* >= 4b-1 for a b-scale topology, so cost is set by feature fineness, not feature count. The law is one-sided: we exhibit an annulus whose mean, covariance and all fourth-order moments equal those of a filled disk, yet H_1 is nonzero. Its practical content is a calibration rule. The upper bound is attained by Gaussian test functions, the RKHS witness of an RBF kernel, so the law predicts which bandwidth an MMD test should use: the feature scale. On real embedding streams we measure sigma*/eps with median 1.12 (IQR 1.01-1.52, n=26) over three settings and three scales, and a data-driven bandwidth reaches AUC >= 0.95. Against an adversary optimised against the defender's statistics (mean, covariance, k-NN, kurtosis), only a bandwidth-matched kernel test still detects. For persistent homology the verdict is mixed and depends on choices usually left implicit. The summary matters more than the filtration: total persistence attains recall 0.75 at FPR 1% where the first persistence landscape attains 0.00. What survives is a cost gap, not a power gap: where persistence works it costs 116x kurtosis, which works at least as well. We conclude not that topological summaries are useless, but that on this task a kernel test whose bandwidth the law sets dominates them.

Operational Earth observation increasingly calls for answering queries such as find the image pairs where a new building appeared.'' This means searching an archive of before-and-after (bi-temporal) satellite image pairs and ranking each pair by how well it matches a natural-language description of the change. The component that performs this match, the fusion module that combines the before'' and ``after'' views, must be run at query time across many candidate pairs, so its speed largely sets the cost of every search. We present a controlled comparison of how to build that module. Using one fixed image encoder (a frozen CLIP model) and one training recipe for all variants, we evaluate eight designs drawn from three families: attention, state-space models (Mamba), and learned compression (our Temporal Bottleneck Fusion, TBF). Each design is tested on two benchmarks (LEVIR-CC and Dubai-CC) with ten random seeds, so the reported differences are statistically grounded. We outline three findings: first, a training-free two-stage search (a cheap difference model that shortlists candidates, followed by attention fusion that re-ranks them) matches or exceeds full-fusion recall on LEVIR-CC while cutting query cost $10$-$15\times$, with comparable R@1/R@5 on Dubai-CC; second, the linear-time scan of Mamba, attractive on paper, gives no speed benefit at the patch counts typical of vision transformers ($L{=}196$): the scan is limited by memory bandwidth, whereas attention maps cleanly onto parallel hardware; and third, compressing the fused representation (TBF) reduces parameters by $2.3\times$ and latency by $1.6\times$ for a change-only BLEU-1 cost of $0.007$, although more aggressive compression quietly discards change-relevant detail that aggregate metrics fail to reveal.

Creativity is often framed as the production of novelty, yet many cultural works emerge through transformation of earlier artifacts and not through isolated invention. Drawing on theories of imitation by Gabriel Tarde and James Mark Baldwin, this paper models creativity as selective transformation across multiple levels of textual representation. We introduce a multi-level framework that compares literary texts across lexical, semantic, conceptual, structural, and narrative dimensions using directional alignment and control calibrated similarity measures. Applying the model to historically documented literary relationships, we show that different pairs preserve source structure at different representational levels while diverging in others. These transformation profiles provide a quantitative method for characterizing how imitation persists and where creative divergence occurs within literary works.

Despite substantial progress in remote sensing multi-temporal change detection (MTCD), most existing MTCD methods still represent the dynamic process at each spatial location over the entire observation period using a single change category associated with the final observation. This implicit single-change assumption limits their ability to characterize regions of recurrent change closely related to human activities. To address this limitation, we introduce Urban Building Dynamics Detection (UBDD), which identifies building-change dynamic footprints, i.e., the temporal intervals in which changes occur, from multi-temporal imagery and produces pixel-wise classification masks. For regions undergoing two or more changes, UBDD introduces an independent multi-change class for unified representation, thereby enabling unified modeling of single- and multi-change processes. Furthermore, we propose FootprintNet, which abstracts building-change processes as interactions between latent states and actions, and imposes state-action transition constraints to guide the learning of causally coherent change trajectories. It further exploits temporal change-boundary cues to enhance feature contrast across boundary sides, thereby improving the discrimination among different dynamic footprints and enabling accurate detection of dynamic footprints. Moreover, we introduce the Building Change Dynamics Score (BCDS) to address the inability of conventional metrics to reflect the temporal proximity between predicted footprints and labels. It evaluates predictions according to their preservation of change semantics and temporal offsets from the corresponding labels. Extensive experiments on TSCD, MUDS, and WUSU demonstrate that FootprintNet outperforms current state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/zmoka-zht/FootprintNet.

Detecting when the statistical behavior of an engineered system changes, and identifying which component is responsible, are core problems in the monitoring of telecommunication networks, robotic platforms, security infrastructure, and multi-agent systems. In safety- and mission-critical deployments, such decisions must be accompanied by statistical reliability guarantees rather than by point estimates alone. Conformal changepoint localization (CONCH) and conformal root cause analysis (CROC) meet this need by returning confidence sets that contain the true changepoint, or the true root-cause stream, with a user-specified probability, without parametric assumptions on the data-generating process. In practice, however, observations are frequently corrupted, e.g., by outliers, sensor faults, or adversarial perturbations. While the finite-sample coverage of these procedures is preserved under contamination, the resulting confidence sets can become uninformatively large. Adopting a Huber-type contamination model, this paper proposes weighted CONCH (W-CONCH) and weighted CROC (W-CROC), which downweight observations that are likely to be corrupted with the goal of reducing confidence set size when data may be corrupted. The weighting mechanism, derived from a formal bound on the unknown corrupted data densities, leverages pre-existing second-order classifier-based uncertainty signals, such as those produced by evidential deep learning or Bayesian learning. W-CONCH and W-CROC are further generalized by introducing a meta-learning procedure for the weights that optimizes a differentiable surrogate of the confidence set size. Experiments on image-based and real-world changepoint and root-cause benchmarks show that uncertainty-based weighting substantially reduces confidence set size while maintaining the target coverage.

Predictive process monitoring supports the optimization and control of operational business processes by forecasting the future state or outcome of ongoing cases. While deep neural networks have achieved strong performance for these tasks by modeling sequential dependencies in event logs, their black-box nature limits trust and practical adoption. Feature attribution methods are often used to address this, but applying them directly poses a dilemma: event-level attributions impose high computational complexity for long traces, while explanations based on aggregated trace representations often fail to capture the underlying control-flow dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a local post-hoc explainability method for deep neural networks in outcome prediction. The method relies on a control-flow-aware segmentation algorithm that partitions a trace into meaningful segments and supports the computation of segment-level SHAP explanations. This makes it possible to identify which parts of a trace influence a prediction and which change points steer the case toward the predicted outcome. We assess the proposed segmentation method on a synthetic dataset with known process logic, where meaningful change points can be explicitly verified, and we demonstrate its usefulness on real-world event logs from a loan application process and an administrative process of a Dutch municipality.

As conversational AI systems are designed for repeated use, a central question is how a series of interactions becomes a relationship. We present a longitudinal multimodal study of a memory-augmented conversational agent (24 participants x 10 sessions), in which participants rated five relational constructs -- familiarity, self-disclosure, perceived memory, conversational quality, and enjoyment -- after each session. Two complementary dynamics emerge. First, conversational quality strongly shapes how enjoyable a session feels in the moment but does not carry forward across sessions, whereas perceived memory is relationally conditioned -- predicted by prior relational state rather than reflecting system capability alone -- and it shapes later enjoyment indirectly, via subsequent self-disclosure. Second, relationships are punctuated by discrete turning points -- crashes and surges -- that are partially traceable in multimodal behavior and open different intervention windows: surges are more behaviorally detectable in the moment, enjoyment surges persist more reliably than enjoyment crashes recover, and some crashes are better forecast from person-specific behavioral drift than detected after they have already occurred. Together, the findings suggest that longitudinal human-AI relationships are built through both slow accumulation and abrupt turning points.

We present FM-ChangeNet, a pathwise-supervised framework for change detection that reformulates bi-temporal reasoning as continuous transport in feature space rather than static endpoint comparison. Given encoded pre and post-temporal representations, we construct intermediate latent states and learn a time-conditioned velocity field $\hat{v}_θ(z_t,t)$ along the transformation trajectory. This pathwise formulation constrains the predictor over a continuum of intermediate states, providing a denser and less ambiguous supervision signal than conventional endpoint-only segmentation and enabling the model to capture temporal evolution explicitly. The learned velocity field is not only a transport mechanism but also an interpretable representation of change: its magnitude serves as a spatially localized change cue that helps distinguish true structural variation from nuisance effects such as illumination shifts and spatial misalignment. We develop a hierarchical multi-scale architecture with cross-temporal alignment, time-conditioned coarse-to-fine flow decoding, and a unified objective that couples flow supervision, trajectory consistency, spatial regularization, and segmentation loss. Experiments on remote sensing benchmarks show that the proposed framework produces more structured and robust change representations while achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Domain-incremental change detection (DICD) continuously adapts models to new geographic domains while preserving prior knowledge. However, a structural mismatch exists: the label space remains fixed while domain characteristics vary drastically. Consequently, incremental models struggle to maintain stable spatial change representations across domains. Existing strategies, such as replay-based or regularization-based methods, often fail to scale to long domain sequences, leading to knowledge degradation or increased computational cost. We propose Dual-Selective Incremental Network (DSINet), a unified framework built on visual state space models. DSINet leverages Mamba's input-dependent selective mechanism through a selective spatial state unit (S3U). This unit preserves stable spatial change structures while filtering domain-specific variations during feature propagation. As a result, spatial representations remain stable across domains, preventing the accumulation of feature confusion over incremental steps. Additionally, we employ a concentration-balanced distillation (CBD) strategy to stabilize knowledge transfer across domains. It balances hardness and confidence concentration effects during incremental updates. This ensures reliable probability mass allocation and prevents over-smoothing or mode collapse during distillation. Together, these mechanisms maintain stable learning dynamics throughout incremental stages. Experimental results demonstrate that DSINet mitigates knowledge degradation across long domain sequences while maintaining the linear computational efficiency of state space models.

3D plant phenotyping is notoriously known to be procedure-complicated and of low throughput due to the extensive multi-view imaging, the fragile 3D reconstruction pipeline, and the additional cost from reconstructed geometry to phenotypic extraction. These limitations are further amplified in low-cost data acquisition, where smartphone videos or sparsely sampled multi-view images provide limited view overlap and self-occlusion. In this work, we show that the conventional 3D plant phenotyping pipeline could be streamlined and significantly accelerated with 3D Foundation Models (3DFMs), and particularly, present one of the first cross-crop 3D phenotyping frameworks powered by 3DFMs. The framework replaces COLMAP-style sparse initialization with 3DFM-based feed-forward geometric recovery, combines geometry-constrained 3D Gaussian Splatting for dense reconstruction, enables few-view reconstruction through iterative view synthesis and refinement, and converts reconstructed geometry into measurable organs through 2D-to-3D semantic transfer, metric scale recovery, and organ instance separation. We further construct a cross-crop dataset with smartphone-based image acquisition, diverse plant morphologies, and manual annotations for segmentation and phenotypic evaluation. Experiments across 26 plant sequences show that 3D Foundation Models reduce the average reconstruction time from 6.52 minutes to 1.58 seconds while maintaining high reconstruction quality and phenotyping accuracy. These results suggest a fresh technical route for high-throughput 3D plant phenotyping, from low-cost image acquisition to fast reconstruction, perception, scale recovery, and phenotypic measurement.

Monitoring canopy height change is essential for understanding carbon sinks and forest dynamics. Remote sensing enables consistent, large-scale observations of such changes, increasingly integrated with deep learning architectures such as Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs). However, existing methods and datasets frame the problem as binary change detection, which overlooks both the continuous nature of change, especially for vegetation, and the inherent uncertainty in labels. We present the Canopy Height Change (CHC) dataset, providing 3 $\mathrm{m}$ resolution continuous canopy height differences and associated spatially resolved uncertainties across 10598 $\mathrm{km}^2$ of northern and western Spain. The dataset is paired with a co-located time series of PlanetScope satellite imagery. Based on the dataset, we introduce the task of uncertainty-aware change regression, associated metrics and strategies for fine-tuning GFMs. Furthermore, we evaluate state-of-the-art GFMs and highlight promising directions and remaining challenges for advancing continuous canopy height change estimation.

While corporate narrative disclosures provide crucial information to capital markets, comprehensively evaluating their qualitative changes over time remains challenging. Narrative text is inherently multidimensional, meaning that an improvement in one textual dimension often occurs alongside changes in others. To capture these underlying dynamics, we propose a longitudinal text analysis approach combining Japanese-language NLP metric extraction with paired testing, shift function analysis, and inter-metric correlation. Our framework extends prior indicator sets by incorporating a cross-section relevance indicator to measure topical alignment between risk disclosures and management strategies. Applying this approach to evaluate Japan's 2019 disclosure reforms, we analyze 19,770 firm-year observations over a 10-year period (FY2015-FY2024). The joint analysis reveals complex shifts in disclosure patterns that are frequently masked by conventional single-indicator methods. Specifically, we find that while disclosure volume increased substantially, it was accompanied by a decline in readability. Furthermore, although the overall information structure improved, specific descriptive quality stagnated, and the degree of adaptation varied across market segments.

While Change Captioning systems have garnered substantial attention to respond to our evolving world, their true performance on diverse real-world change contexts remains largely unexplored due to the lack of comprehensive evaluation frameworks. To fill this gap, we propose C3-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating Context-aware Change Captioning. C3-Bench features: (1) 4,996 human-labeled image pairs of 51 real-world change contexts across four domains (e.g., natural scenes, remote sensing imagery, image editing, and anomalies), each with diverse, carefully curated scenarios derived from multiple change-centric communities; and (2) the first LLM-as-Judge evaluation framework in the change captioning task that measure fine-grained dimensions (e.g., correctness, specificity, fluency, and relevance), along with a novel reversibility metric exploring whether models understand changes with symmetric consistency. Based on C3-Bench, we benchmark 32 models -- including conventional change captioning models, proprietary Large Multimodal Models (LMMs), and 2B-90B open-source LMMs. We reveal a fundamental blind spot in the prevailing change captioning paradigm: Once the change context departs from training-style regimes, conventional models collapse, and even state-of-the-art LMMs such as GPT-5.2 exhibit systematic domain- and position-dependent errors that distort reliable change understanding. By making these hidden failure modes explicit and measurable, we delineate the next frontier for building generalizable and trustworthy change captioning systems. All codes and datasets are publicly available on the project page.

This study explores how micro-changes in the plucking trajectory of a guitar pick influence the sound of an acoustic guitar. Using a state-of-the-art robotic plucker, a series of measurements has been performed, where the plectrum was moved towards the instrument by a step of 192 micrometers, resulting in an increased attack depth. It has been analysed how the effect of these changes is reflected in loudness, timbre, harmonic content and how the sound progresses during decay. This methodology has been repeated for guitar plectra made from six different materials to investigate how the pick itself influences the effect of a change in the plucking trajectory. The results of the study show that at a low depth the string is not fully excited resulting in weak and markedly altered sound. The range of this effect changes with the mechanical properties of the plectrum material. After this range an increase in depth results in an increase in sound loudness, a decrease in inharmonicity and noisiness and a shift in timbre where the sound becomes fuller in low frequencies and rougher. Presented findings help to understand the nuanced relationship between plucking trajectory and acoustic output. They provide important insights regarding the importance of plucking in guitar testing methodologies, showing that the mech

There are many reasons one may want to edit a model's chain of thought (CoT) -- e.g., to prefill it with reasoning from a stronger model or to remove steps that may yield unsafe outputs. The success of these interventions plausibly depends on a model's inability to notice them, as the model may alter its behavior if it suspects tampering. In this work, we study whether recent reasoning models are able to detect such interventions on their CoTs under a variety of conditions: both during reasoning and after it, and when prefilled both with their own CoTs and with those of other models. Broadly, we find that (i) models exhibit only very modest detection accuracy; (ii) models struggle to identify how their CoT was modified; and (iii) models are about as good at detecting changes to their own CoTs as to those of other models.

We investigate turn-taking in multimodal multi-party conversations using large language models (LLMs). We construct an evaluation framework for three tasks: addressee detection, turn-change prediction, and next speaker prediction. We compare supervised models trained for these tasks, text-based LLMs, multimodal LLMs (MM-LLMs), and human subjects. Experiments on the AMI corpus showed that LLMs outperformed supervised models and humans in next speaker prediction, despite not being trained on the target domain and without access to audio or visual information. An MM-LLM performed better than text-based LLMs on addressee detection and turn-change prediction but remained below human performance, indicating difficulty leveraging raw audio-visual signals. Ablation analyses revealed that conversational context was critical, particularly for next speaker prediction. We observed that human and LLM prediction patterns were similar, and intervals with frequent turn changes were difficult for both.

The increasing availability of large-scale textual corpora has opened new possibilities for data-driven, quantitative approaches to historical analysis using Natural Language Processing (NLP). However, diachronic corpora with historical relevance from the pre-digital era remain scarce and often incomplete. We present a quantitative approach to historical analysis based on the reconstruction and exploration of a diachronic corpus of around 600,000 articles from the Italian newspaper "La Repubblica", covering all the articles published from the 1st of January 1985 to the 31st of December 2000 - a period of major political, social, and geopolitical change in Italy and globally. Using NLP techniques, we analyze the text at both lexical and semantic levels; we then apply tools from complex systems and statistical physics to trace shifts in media discourse over time. This allows us to detect key transition periods, such as the transition from the First Republic to the Second Republic in Italy, or major international conflicts like the Gulf War or the Kosovo War, without relying on prior labeling. The results show how combining computational linguistics with ideas from complex systems can offer new quantitative insight into historical changes, opening up new paths for studying the dynamics of media and society through large-scale textual data.

Software engineering tools increasingly rely on LLM based agents to localize files to change to resolve a software issue. Most AI agents explore repositories linearly, that is, visiting one directory or file per step. We postulate that this is a structural mismatch for changes that span several subsystems. We compare linear sequential exploration against non-linear, domain-scoped parallel agentic exploration. Using SWE Bench Pro as initial benchmark, we focus on ansible as an exemplar. We construct an approach for persistent-session evaluation of GitHub issues anchored at a single base commit. We compare our non-linear domain-agent file traversal system against a base LLM without direct repository access, a single agent Recursive Language Model (RLM) baseline with a persistent Python REPL and an external CLI baseline using Codex 5.5 High. Domain scoped parallel agent spawning with a small Haiku-class model achieves the highest micro F1 among Haiku class models by a large margin. Domain-agents is the second highest behind only the much larger Codex 5.5 High on our own expanded benchmark including over more recent PRs from 2025 and 2026. On the original, curated, 2020 SWE-bench Pro benchmark, a larger Sonnet plain LLM baseline attains higher micro F1 by predicting few files, leading to higher precision, but at significantly lower all gold recall. We also present three additional findings. First, documentation evolution is a latent dependency unresolved by any approach. Second, naive file system access can degrade localization driven by test-file over prediction. Lastly, forced multi-agent consultation does not measurably help and raises token cost substantially.

Lane changing entails simultaneous longitudinal and lateral motions that affect driving comfort and mobility efficiency. Because these motions are tightly coupled and subject to substantial inter-vehicle variability, trajectory planning for lane-change maneuvers is characterized by a highly personalized nature. This study proposes a neural network-driven planner that integrates a third-order polynomial trajectory generator with a learning module that infers optimal trajectory parameters across diverse driving conditions. Using a shared backbone with dual heads, one head ensures all-condition operational guarantees, while the other captures driver-specific preferences for comfort or mobility efficiency. A head-gated switching mechanism, realized through a statistical gate based on error-winner logistic regression, adaptively selects the appropriate head under varying driving conditions, which enables context-aware lane-change trajectory planning. Representative cases and Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed planner achieves personalized comfort and mobility during lane changes, while the baseline ensures feasible trajectories under driving conditions where personalized data are insufficient or inaccessible.

We study finite-sample change detection for one-dimensional noisy dynamical systems using partition-based empirical approximations of stationary behaviour. Given observations from an interval-valued process, we partition the state space, estimate a finite transition matrix from observed transitions between partition elements, and apply a small Doeblin-type regularisation to ensure a unique stationary distribution. From an initial reference segment, we compute a baseline empirical stationary distribution $\widehatπ_{0,ρ}$. For each later sliding window, we compute $\widehatπ_{t,ρ}$ and define the score $$S_t=\|\widehatπ_{t,ρ}-\widehatπ_{0,ρ}\|_1.$$ Large values of $S_t$ indicate a change in stationary behaviour relative to the baseline. The statistic detects changes in invariant density or stationary law, but not all possible changes in transition dynamics. Under explicit assumptions on empirical transition concentration, finite-state stationary distribution stability, partition approximation, regularisation bias, and noise stability, we derive a finite-sample bound for the empirical stationary density. The bound separates sampling error, regularisation bias, partition approximation error, and noise bias. We then obtain a single-window false-alarm guarantee and a sufficient detection condition when the invariant density changes by more than the estimation error. We illustrate the method on synthetic noisy beta-map change-point experiments.

Hate moderation is often evaluated as classification on clean English inputs, but deployed systems must route content to actions such as ALLOW, FLAG, or REVIEW. We study how this workflow changes under code-mixed inputs using a paired evaluation setting where the same underlying content is expressed as clean English and Tamil-English code-mix. Under thresholds tuned on clean English development data, code-mixed inputs produce substantial action instability, with a paired clean- to-code-mix decision flip rate of 0.265. The main workflow effects are increased review burden and increased false-flagging of non-hateful content: review rate rises from 0.138 to 0.297 and non-hate false-flag rate rises from 0.069 to 0.104. Tamil-only inputs show stronger degradation overall, suggesting a broader language-coverage limitation rather than the same code-mixed instability pattern. A simple disagreement-based deferral rule reduces automatic errors on stressed inputs, but only by increasing review load. These results show that workflow-level evaluation reveals moderation failures that standard classification summaries can miss.

This paper introduces a distribution-free framework for constructing post-detection confidence sets for changepoints after stopping a sequential change detection procedure. It is well known that conformal test martingales can be used to sequentially detect changes in distribution, but by themselves provide no inference for the time at which a proclaimed change occurred. Past work on post-detection inference requires pre- and post-change classes of distributions to be known, but this paper accomplishes localization of the changepoint without any distributional assumptions. We establish finite-sample coverage guarantees (conditional on correct detection). We provide non-asymptotic bounds on the conditional expected size of the confidence sets. Under suitable asymptotic regimes, we prove that the conditional expected size of the confidence set remains uniformly bounded and demonstrate strong empirical performance on simulated and real data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first general distribution-free framework for sequential changepoint localization with valid post-detection coverage.

Modifying an attribute in tabular data often introduces an unnatural instance by breaking its relationships with other attributes. The modified instance must be both natural and minimally changed from the original instance. This paper addresses the challenge of generating such a modified instance. We identify key limitations in existing approaches: generative models either don't support instance-level attribute editing or, in the case of methods like CVAE, retain attribute information in the latent space, leading to unnecessary modifications. To solve this, we propose TabChange, an approach that analyzes the relationship between the attribute of interest and other attributes in the dataset. If the relationship is weak, it simply flips the attribute; if it is strong, it uses an adversarial framework that removes information about the attribute in the latent space representation. This removal enables precise modifications, making only the necessary adjustments to maintain naturalness. Our experiments across seven datasets show that TabChange generates counterfactuals in attributes that are comparable in naturalness and are more proximal to their original instances. This leads to a higher number of valid counterfactuals and a lower number of invalid counterfactuals compared to the baselines.

Machine learning models on microcontroller-class devices (TinyML) face a fundamental challenge: post-deployment distribution change undermines static models. On-device learning (ODL) addresses this by running the learning process directly on the device. The existing literature has not characterized how distribution change occurs or how different change types require different solutions. Approximately 70 ODL works are surveyed under one principle: the distribution change regime. The survey analyzes how different types of distribution change influence the applications addressable on-device, the hardware employed, and the structure of the solutions. A persistent gap between methodological benchmarks and real-world deployment scenarios is also identified.

The Linear Ordering Problem (LOP) is a fundamental combinatorial optimization problem with important applications in areas such as economics, social choice, and machine learning. Its most prominent use is the triangulation of economic input-output tables, which helps identify critical industries in an economy. Most existing algorithms have been evaluated on benchmarks derived from outdated macroeconomic data, which no longer reflect the structure of contemporary economies. Furthermore, LOP instances often exhibit many distinct global optima that can differ substantially from one another, creating challenges for applications that rely on a single solution. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel benchmark suite derived from up-to-date real-world economic data and an algorithmic scheme that leverages state-of-the-art LOP metaheuristics to generate diverse sets of high-quality solutions, together with metrics for assessing both quality and diversity. Experiments were conducted to report results on the proposed benchmark suite under both the traditional single-solution setting and the newly introduced multi-solution scenario

Legal reasoning requires distinguishing changes that matter from those that do not. Legal AI should remain stable under legally irrelevant perturbations, but should change when perturbations alter legally material points. We formulate this requirement as a legal-relevance-sensitive evaluation problem: LLMs should only be sensitive to the legally relevant change. We introduce a unified evaluation suite covering should-change and should-not-change evaluation across judicial fairness, robustness, and statute-confusion scenarios. Our evaluation shows that existing legal LLMs are systematically sensitive to legally irrelevant variations and often fail to distinguish related legal elements and statutory rules. To mitigate these failures, we present LexGuard, an adversarial multi-agent framework grounded in formal reasoning. LexGuard formalizes statutes into executable constraints, uses adversarial agents to extract competing fact-statute arguments, and invokes SMT solvers to verify legal satisfaction and logical consistency. Experiments show that LexGuard improves legal reasoning reliability by reducing vulnerability to manipulative framing, improving disambiguation among similar statutes, limiting the influence of legally irrelevant attributes, and increasing consistency under benign reformulations. We show that legal trustworthiness requires not only accuracy, but calibrated sensitivity to legally material changes.

Optimization-based adversarial suffixes can jailbreak aligned large language models (LLMs) while remaining fluent, weakening static and windowed perplexity-based detectors. We cast adversarial suffix detection as an online change-point detection problem over the token-level next-token entropy stream. Using the LLM system prompt to estimate a robust baseline, we standardize user-token entropies and apply a one-sided CUSUM statistic. The resulting detector, CPD Online (CPD), is model-agnostic, training-free, runs online, and localizes the adversarial suffix onset. On a benchmark of 1,012 optimization-based suffix attacks (GCG, AutoDAN, AdvPrompter, BEAST, AutoDAN-HGA) and 1,012 perplexity-controlled benign prompts, CPD improves F1 over the strongest windowed-perplexity baseline on all six open-weight chat models (LLaMA-2-7B/13B, Vicuna-7B/13B, Qwen2.5-7B/14B). On LLaMA-2-7B at the canonical CUSUM setting ($k=0$), CPD reaches AUROC $0.88$ and F1 $0.82$. Beyond prompt-level detection, CPD concentrates 79.6% of its triggers inside the adversarial suffix, versus 17-46% for windowed perplexity. Finally, when used as a lightweight gate for LLaMA Guard, CPD reduces guard calls by 17-22% on a high-volume, benign-dominated deployment while preserving guard-level detection quality

Has the style of scientific communication changed due to the growing use of large language models in the writing process? We address this question in the domain of Natural Language Processing by leveraging two data resources we create: a naturalistic corpus of over 37,000 papers from the ACL Anthology (2020-2024); and a synthetic dataset of 3,000 human-written passages and their LLM-generated improvements. We first implement a series of diachronic lexical analyses, showing that both word frequency and usage contexts have changed significantly over time, indicating semantic specialization in some cases and generalization in others. Broadening our perspective, we then model a range of more complex stylistic features and find that LLM-modified texts more frequently contain certain syntactic constructions, more complex and longer words and a lower lexical diversity. Finally, we connect these changes in writing practices to subjective reading experience through a pilot annotation study with 20 domain experts. They overall rate LLM-improved texts as more understandable and exciting, but also express negative qualitative attitudes towards LLMs, highlighting the strongly subjective effect of AI-assisted writing on reading experience.

Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses. Extensive research has introduced new modeling techniques, complemented by large-scale benchmarking studies consolidating the state-of-the-art. Today, quasi-standards such as gradient-boosting models paired with SHAP explainers have emerged, yet continuous improvement of risk models remains a top priority. Concurrently, rapid advancements in AI, most notably large language models, have disrupted predictive modeling paradigms. Foundation models, pretrained on extensive datasets from diverse domains, have demonstrated remarkable performance by leveraging prior knowledge. While prevalent in natural language processing and computer vision, foundation models for tabular data have only recently emerged. We conjecture that pretraining on out-of-domain data is particularly beneficial in small-data settings, such as SME lending or specialized corporate portfolios, and may help address longstanding challenges including low default portfolios and class imbalance. This paper benchmarks recently proposed tabular foundation models against a broad set of competitors, including established and advanced machine learning techniques, across two core tasks: PD and LGD modeling. Our evaluation encompasses various datasets, performance indicators, and experimental conditions. We find that tabular foundation models generally perform best across datasets and tasks. Moreover, they offer significant improvement in predictive performance as dataset size shrinks. These results are remarkable given that the models are tested out-of-the-box, without hyperparameter tuning, ensuring ease of use and mitigating computational costs.

Function calling, also known as tool use, is a core capability of modern LLM agents but is typically constrained by synchronous execution semantics. Under these semantics, LLM decoding is blocked until each function call completes, resulting in increasing end-to-end latency. In this work, we introduce AsyncFC, a pure execution-layer framework that decouples LLM decoding from function execution, enabling overlap between model decoding and function execution as well as inter-function parallelism when dependencies permit. AsyncFC layers over existing models and unmodified function implementations, requiring no fine-tuning or changes to the standard synchronous function-calling protocol. Across standard function-calling benchmarks and adapted software engineering benchmarks, AsyncFC significantly reduces end-to-end task completion time while preserving task accuracy. Furthermore, these results reveal that LLMs possess a native capability to reason over symbolic futures that represent unresolved execution results, enabling an asynchronous paradigm for model-tool interaction.

Philosophical accounts of persuasion often assume that shared evidence and rational argumentation should lead to a convergence of views between peers, yet everyday discourse often suggests otherwise. In this study, we use large language models to analyze a corpus of debates on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView, where belief revision is publicly signaled. Large language models were asked, halfway through each discussion, to forecast whether such an acknowledgement would arise; their probabilistic estimates serve as a conversational baseline. Each reply was then coded, through a hybrid machine-assisted procedure, for ten familiar rhetorical strategies -- concession, empathy, logical challenge, credibility appeals, and so forth. Adding these strategic features markedly improves predictive power and yields a consistent pattern: moves that express concession or empathetic alignment substantially increase the prospect of belief change, whereas frontal refutation, credibility attacks, and topic deflection diminish it. The findings indicate that effective public reasoning depends as much on relational framing as on evidential content, and they invite a refinement of normative accounts of rational dialogue.

Urban spatial evolution is manifested not only through horizontal expansion but also through vertical structural changes. Consequently, jointly capturing 2D semantic changes and 3D height changes is essential for urban morphology analysis and emergency management. In practical scenarios, collecting 3D observations is often constrained by high acquisition costs and the inability to support frequent updates. The multi-temporal cross-modal input consisting of pre-event Digital Surface Model (DSM) and post-event imagery provides a practical solution for 3D change detection in high-frequency urban monitoring, disaster assessment, and emergency response scenarios. However, this setting remains challenging as imagery and DSM data exhibit significant spectral-geometric representation gaps. Moreover, modality differences may be confused with actual changes, and robust change detection requires effective fusion of semantic and geometric features from multi-temporal data. In this paper, we propose DPG-CD, a depth-prior-guided multi-temporal cross-modal fusion framework for joint 2D semantic and 3D height change detection. Specifically, an estimated depth prior is introduced into the imagery to mitigate the modality gap with DSM. A gated fusion mechanism then selectively injects geometric cues from depth prior while preserving discriminative spectral representations. Subsequently, a multi-stage cross-temporal cross-modal feature fusion architecture is employed to extract change-aware features. Finally, a multi-task decoder jointly predicts 2D semantic changes and 3D height changes, complemented by an auxiliary DSM prediction task to improve structural consistency and height estimation accuracy. Experiments on two public datasets, Hi-BCD and 3DCD, and a new dataset, NYC-MMCD, demonstrate that DPG-CD outperforms state-of-the-art methods on both 2D and 3D change detection tasks.

Bayesian model calibration is central to digital twins and computer experiments, as it aligns model outputs with field observations by estimating calibration parameters and correcting systematic model bias. Classical Bayesian calibration introduces latent parameters and a discrepancy function to model bias, but suffers from parameter--discrepancy confounding and is typically formulated as an offline procedure under a stationary data-generating assumption. These limitations are restrictive in modern digital twin applications, where systems evolve over time and may exhibit gradual drift and abrupt regime shifts. While data assimilation methods enable sequential updates, they generally do not explicitly model systematic bias and are less effective under abrupt changes. We propose Bayesian Recursive Projected Calibration (BRPC), an online Bayesian calibration framework for streaming data under simulator mismatch and nonstationarity. BRPC extends projected calibration to the online setting by separating a discrepancy-free particle update for calibration parameters from a conditional Gaussian process update for discrepancy, preserving identifiability while enabling bias-aware adaptation under gradual system evolution. To handle abrupt changes, BRPC is integrated with restart mechanisms that detect regime shifts and reset the calibration process. We establish theoretical guarantees for both components, including tracking performance under gradual evolution and false-alarm and detection behavior for restart mechanisms. Empirical studies on synthetic and plant-simulation benchmarks show that BRPC improves calibration accuracy under gradual changes, while restart-augmented BRPC further improves robustness and predictive performance under abrupt regime shifts compared to sliding-window Bayesian calibration and data assimilation baselines.

Majority voting is one of the few black-box interventions that can improve a fixed stochastic predictor: repeated access can be cheaper than changing a high-capability model. Classical fixed-competence theory makes this intervention look monotone -- more votes help above the majority threshold and hurt below it. We show that this picture is fundamentally incomplete. Under the de Finetti representation for exchangeable repeated correctness, voting is governed by a latent distribution of per-example correctness probabilities. Even simple latent mixtures can generate sharply different voting curves, including nonmonotone behavior and, in an explicit construction, infinitely many trend changes. The full latent law determines the curve, but the curve does not determine the law. The exact object recovered by voting is a signed voting signature: at each binomial variance scale, it records excess latent mass above rather than below the majority threshold. Our main theorem proves that the complete odd-budget curve and this signature are equivalent: the curve increments are signed Hausdorff moments, and the full curve recovers the signature uniquely. This viewpoint explains shape phenomena, branch-symmetric nonidentifiability, realizability, variation, and endpoint rates. It also separates estimation regimes: direct per-example success-probability information targets the full signature, whereas fixed-depth grouped labels reveal only a finite prefix.

A central challenge in dynamic network analysis is to represent temporal evolution in a way that is both geometrically meaningful and statistically identifiable. One approach embeds a sequence of network snapshots as trajectories in a Euclidean space and relates these trajectories to node embeddings. In multilayer and unfolded spectral constructions, however, node embeddings and their underlying latent positions are identifiable only up to general linear transformations. Although this ambiguity preserves edge probabilities, it can distort geometry and invalidate distance based temporal comparisons at both the trajectory and node-levels. We develop Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories (MENT), a framework for multiscale temporal trajectories based on second-moment geometry. By imposing an isotropic normalization on the anchor latent positions, we reduce the relevant ambiguity to orthogonal transformations and prevent distortion of the second-moment geometry. In this canonical representation, we define a trace variation distance and mode-wise variation distances along orthogonal directions, and use multidimensional scaling to obtain low-dimensional trajectories of time points at both global and mode-wise levels. The resulting trajectories support interpretation and inference. They admit mode-wise decompositions, support attribution of global and mode-wise temporal changes to nodes, and enable change point detection through 1D trajectories. We prove consistency of the proposed unfolded spectral embedding and of the induced temporal trajectories. Experiments on two synthetic and two real dynamic networks illustrate stable and interpretable recovery of temporal structure and show strong performance against existing change point detection baselines.

Monitoring archaeological sites at scale is vital for protecting cultural heritage, yet pinpointing when disturbances occur remains difficult because visual cues are subtle and ground-truth data are sparse. We introduce WATCH, a framework for month-level change-event localization over PlanetScope satellite mosaics (2017-2024, 4.7 m/px) that supports three complementary scoring approaches: (i) Temporal Embedding Distance (TED), a training-free method that scores month-to-month deviations from a local temporal reference; (ii) Self-Supervised Change Detection (SSCD), an ensemble of reconstruction, forecasting, and latent-novelty signals; and (iii) a Weakly Supervised (WS) temporal localization model trained with sparse event-month labels. We benchmark WATCH on 1,943 archaeological sites in Afghanistan using embeddings from six foundation models (CLIP, GeoRSCLIP, SatMAE, Prithvi-EO-2.0, DINOv3, and Satlas-Pretrain) alongside a handcrafted spectral and texture baseline, and assess cross-regional generalization on sites in Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt. The unsupervised approaches (TED, SSCD) consistently outperform the weakly supervised alternative. TED with SatMAE achieves the highest exact-month recall (55% at m=0), while TED with GeoRSCLIP, CLIP, or Satlas-Pretrain reaches 92.5% within a three-month tolerance (m=3). Handcrafted features remain competitive for exact-month detection under weak supervision. Our directional margin analysis reveals systematic temporal biases: SSCD paired with GeoRSCLIP or Prithvi-EO-2.0 exhibits the strongest early-warning profile, detecting anomalies before the recorded event, while TED favors confirmation-oriented detection after a change has materialized. These results show that satellite imagery combined with foundation-model embeddings enables scalable, decision-relevant heritage monitoring. Code: https://github.com/microsoft/WATCH

This discussion paper reflects on how quantitative approaches to historical linguistics interact with dataset properties. Drawing on two worked examples, we examine English data using quad-based concept modelling of Early Modern English discourse in EEBO-TCP (c. 1470s-1690s; 765M words) alongside SynFlow analysis of scientific writing in Royal Society Corpus 6.0.4 (1750-1799; drawn from a 78.6M-token open corpus). Through parallel comparison, the paper explores how each approach operationalises concepts, the data assumptions they entail, and the diachronic interpretations they support. We argue that comparative methodological reflection clarifies the limits of purely lexical, frequency-based approaches and highlights how dataset structure shapes the kinds of semantic change that quantitative methods can reliably detect.

Statistical change point (CP) detection methods typically rely on likelihood-based inference and ignore contextual information about plausible CP locations beyond the observed sequence. Although informative priors provide a natural way to incorporate such information, general and computationally efficient methods for doing so are lacking, especially for multiple CP detection. To address this gap, we propose a prior-informed CP detection algorithm (Pi-Change) that incorporates prior information on CP locations through a time-varying penalty term. We prove that the proposed penalty can be embedded in the Pruned Exact Linear Time framework while preserving the dynamic programming recursion and pruning rule required for efficient multiple CP detection. Across simulation studies and three time-series applications, Pi-Change discourages spurious CPs unsupported by prior information, remains robust to prior misspecification, and improves detection accuracy. More broadly, Pi-Change extends multiple CP detection beyond purely data-driven fitting by incorporating partial prior knowledge in a computationally efficient and interpretable way. It is particularly useful when CPs arise from heterogeneous mechanisms or are associated with known external events, helping quantify the delay between an event and the resulting structural change.

We adapted the Reliable Change Index (RCI; Jacobson and Truax, 1991) from clinical psychology to item-level LLM version comparison on 2,000 MMLU-Pro items (K=10 samples at T=0.7). Two within-family pairs were tested: Llama 3 to 3.1 (+1.6 points) and Qwen 2.5 to 3 (+2.8 points). On the full benchmark, most items showed no reliable change (79% and 72%). However, over half the items were floor/ceiling. Among analysable items, change was bidirectional with large effect sizes: 34% improved and 28% deteriorated for Llama; 47% improved and 39% deteriorated for Qwen (median |delta p| = 0.50 and 0.90). Churn was asymmetric by difficulty: low-accuracy items improved, high-accuracy items deteriorated. Domain-level decomposition revealed family-specific reversals: Llama lost physics while Qwen lost law. Greedy single-shot evaluation missed 42% of reliably changed items and falsely flagged 25% of unchanged items. The aggregate accuracy gain is the net residual of opposing item-level movements. We recommend reporting churn rate alongside aggregate accuracy.

Rapid situational awareness is critical in post-disaster response. While remote sensing damage assessment is evolving from pixel-level change detection to high-level semantic analysis, existing vision-language methodologies still struggle to provide actionable intelligence for complex strategic queries. They remain severely constrained by unimodal optical dependence, a prevailing bias towards natural disasters, and a fundamental lack of grounded interactivity. To address these limitations, we present ChangeQuery, a unified multimodal framework designed for comprehensive, all-weather disaster situation awareness. To overcome modality constraints and scenario biases, we construct the Disaster-Induced Change Query (DICQ) dataset, a large-scale benchmark coupling pre-event optical semantics with post-event SAR structural features across a balanced distribution of natural catastrophes and armed conflicts. Furthermore, to provide the high-quality supervision required for interactive reasoning, we propose a novel Automated Semantic Annotation Pipeline. Adhering to a ``statistics-first, generation-later'' paradigm, this engine automatically transforms raw segmentation masks into grounded, hierarchical instruction sets, effectively equipping the model with fine-grained spatial and quantitative awareness. Trained on this structured data, the ChangeQuery architecture operates as an interactive disaster analyst. It supports multi-task reasoning driven by diverse user queries, delivering precise damage quantification, region-specific descriptions, and holistic post-disaster summaries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ChangeQuery establishes a new state-of-the-art, providing a robust and interpretable solution for complex disaster monitoring. The code is available at \href{https://sundongwei.github.io/changequery/}{https://sundongwei.github.io/changequery/}.

Moral judgements form the foundation of human social behavior and societal systems. While Artificial Intelligence chatbots increasingly serve as personal advisors, their influence on moral judgments remains largely unexplored. Here, we examined whether directive AI conversations shift moral evaluations using a within-subject naturalistic paradigm. Fifty-three participants rated moral scenarios, then discussed four with a chatbot prompted to shift moral judgments and four with a control agent. The brief conversations induced significant directional shifts in moral judgments, accepting stricter standards as well as advocating greater leniency (ps < 0.05; Cohen's d = 0.735-1.576), with increasing strengths of this effect during a two-week follow-up (Cohen's d = 1.038-2.069). Critically, the control condition produced no changes, and the effects did not extend to punishment while participants remained unaware of the persuasive intent, and both agents were rated equally likable and convincing, suggesting a vulnerability to undetected and lasting manipulation of foundational moral values.

Traditional change detection identifies where changes occur, but does not explain what changed in natural language. Existing remote sensing change captioning datasets typically describe overall image-level differences, leaving fine-grained localized semantic reasoning largely unexplored. To close this gap, we present RSRCC, a new benchmark for remote sensing change question-answering containing 126k questions, split into 87k training, 17.1k validation, and 22k test instances. Unlike prior datasets, RSRCC is built around localized, change-specific questions that require reasoning about a particular semantic change. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first remote sensing change question-answering benchmark designed explicitly for such fine-grained reasoning-based supervision. To construct RSRCC, we introduce a hierarchical semi-supervised curation pipeline that uses Best-of-N ranking as a critical final ambiguity-resolution stage. First, candidate change regions are extracted from semantic segmentation masks, then initially screened using an image-text embedding model, and finally validated through retrieval-augmented vision-language curation with Best-of-N ranking. This process enables scalable filtering of noisy and ambiguous candidates while preserving semantically meaningful changes. The dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/google/RSRCC.

This technical note provides a first-order formalisation of the logit shift and fact-margin change induced by Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Using a first-order Fréchet approximation around the base model trajectory, we show that the multi-layer LoRA effect can be decomposed into a linear summation of layerwise contributions and a higher-order remainder term representing inter-layer coupling.

Non-stationary sequences arise naturally in control, forecasting, and decision-making. The data-generating process shifts at unknown times, and models must detect the change, discard or downweight obsolete evidence, and adapt to new dynamics on the fly. Transformer-based foundation models increasingly rely on in-context learning for time series forecasting, tabular prediction, and continuous control. As these models are deployed in non-stationary environments, understanding their ability to detect and adapt to regime shifts is important. We formalize this as an in-context change-point detection problem and formally establish the existence of transformer models that solve this problem. Our construction demonstrates that model complexity, in layers and parameters, depends on the level of information available about the change-point location, from no knowledge to knowing exact timing. We validate our results with experiments on synthetic linear regression and linear dynamical systems, where trained transformers match the performance of optimal baselines across information levels. We also show that encoding and incorporating changepoint knowledge indeed improves the real-world performance of a pretrained foundation models on infectious disease forecasting and on financial volatility forecasting around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements without retraining, demonstrating practical applicability to real-world regime changes.

Diffusion models can be challenged in the low signal-to-noise regime, where they have to make pixel-level predictions despite the presence of high noise. The geometric intuition is akin to using the finest stroke for oil painting throughout, which may be ineffective. We therefore study \emph{stroke-size control} as a controlled intervention that changes the roughness of the supervised target, predictions and perturbations across timesteps, in an attempt to ease the low signal-to-noise challenge via prediction target simplification.