Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees

Conformal counterfactual prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees for counterfactual outcomes and individual treatment effects under the no-interference assumption. In this work, we relax this assumption by allowing each unit's potential outcomes to depend on other units' treatments and covariates. In this setting, propensity-score reweighting does not restore weighted exchangeability, and existing methods may fail to achieve valid coverage. To address this issue, we develop interference-adjusted weighted conformal prediction that accounts for interference by constructing an observable upper bound on the ideal and unobserved conformal $p$-value under the target intervention. The resulting prediction sets provide finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees for counterfactual outcomes and individual treatment effects in both transductive and inductive settings. We also derive a sharper construction when intervention-induced changes in nonconformity scores are bounded. Numerical experiments show that our methods preserve nominal coverage, whereas existing methods may not.

Counting equivalent pairs is a common way to report transformation-audit coverage, but it can substantially overstate the constraints imposed by an audit: pairs generated from the same semantic object are correlated, and complete orbit graphs contain algebraically redundant edges. We therefore distinguish four complementary quantities---edge count $m$, effective contrast rank $s$, population support rank $r$, and graph spectral gap $η$---and characterize their roles in audit coverage and deployment reliability. Under a rank-$r$ Gaussian contrast model, a population-invariant calibrated reader exists exactly when the anchor has a component in $\ker T$. When an audit has rank $s < r$, its unobserved risk is $R^\star/U$, with $U \sim \operatorname{Beta}((r-s)/2,s/2)$; when $s \ge r$, exact calibrated interpolation is infeasible. The same distinction appears in orbit topology: a spanning tree imposes the same exact-null constraints as a complete graph, while a sharp graph Poincare inequality propagates edge-level drift to an entire orbit at a cost proportional to $1/η$. Cyclic audits can additionally yield zero pair-level leave-one-out error without holding out any semantic object. To address these failures, we derive exact block-Woodbury leave-one-orbit-out updates and introduce a source-disjoint deployment gate over finitely many candidate readers. The gate retains the original reader unless uncertainty bounds certify lower drift within a prescribed clean-utility budget. etc..

Additional inference compute can increase the number of correctly resolved security-assurance tasks, but repeated success, unique coverage, accepted evidence, and operational protection are different quantities. We develop a resource-constrained framework that separates them. For repeated conditionally independent attempts with latent success probability $\Theta$, coverage is $C_n = 1 - E[(1-\Theta)^n]$, and its limiting value is $1 - P(\Theta = 0)$. Positive pairwise outcome correlation does not by itself imply a ceiling below one: we construct two models with the same mean success and pairwise correlation but different limiting coverage. We distinguish this result from the effective sample size used to estimate a mean, and show why finite-budget observations cannot generally identify an asymptotic support ceiling. We then connect coverage to fallible evidence checking, proper scoring of factual grounding, complete resource accounting, service capacity, and a response model that includes mitigation delay. A conceptual defensive architecture separates evidence analysis, adjudication, and operational authority. An evaluation protocol specifies held-out tasks, paired comparisons, negative cases, and uncertainty reporting. The contribution is a consistent theoretical synthesis and a set of counterexamples to invalid extrapolations, rather than an empirical scaling law. All numerical illustrations are analytic; no model-parity result, hardware benchmark, or general attacker-defender equilibrium is claimed.

Mid-training, the stage between pre-training and alignment, is where a model's per-domain data composition is typically set by data availability rather than principled design. We ask what that decision buys, and whether a later alignment pass can undo it. In a controlled logical-reasoning setting (Qwen3-8B-Base, with a 4B replication; five semantically rule-disjoint KOR-Bench domains) we train 30 allocations spanning the five-domain simplex, 24 sweep configurations plus six withheld from the fit, at five seeds each. Three findings emerge. First, every domain has an interior coverage optimum: the moderate band ($10\%$-$40\%$) is best for all five domains, and a calibrated permutation test for quadratic interiority gives $P\approx0.010$; the fitted mid-training-only curves, with 8B peaks between $9.9\%$ and $35.1\%$, reproduce for curve shape but not peak location. Second, the gaps survive a fixed-budget alignment pass: compensatory SFT raises 116/120 cells (mean $+4.32\%$) yet bridges $0/240$ pairs at a $5\%$ threshold and $30/240$ at a $10\%$ ratio, an equal-budget uniform control behaves almost identically, and a permutation null would bridge $13.8\pm3.3$ and $77.9\pm8.5$ pairs ($P<0.001$). Third, zero coverage collapses mid-training-only accuracy, though a FineWeb-Edu-only control shows the collapse is commingled with generic drift. An exploratory $θ^*$ allocation attains the largest full-pipeline gain ($+4.36\%$ vs. $+0.80\%$/$+0.64\%$,pp) but is marginal under Welch test.

Surface coverage with task-redundant manipulators is challenging because each surface point may admit multiple inverse kinematics (IK) solutions, and configuration choices strongly affect motion quality. This paper extends the classical Spanning Tree Coverage (STC) method to redundant manipulators through offline and online Joint Spanning Tree Coverage (JSTC) algorithms. Offline JSTC samples multiple Inverse Kinematics (IK) solutions per grid cell and formulates the problem as a Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree (GMST), selecting one configuration per cell and tracing the resulting tree to obtain a non-revisiting coverage path. Online JSTC incrementally expands and backtracks a spanning tree with feasibility and cost evaluation while handling dynamic grid updates. Simulation results show that offline JSTC reduces computation time, reconfigurations, and joint motion compared to other methods, while online JSTC achieves fast per-step planning in dynamic scenarios.

In this article, we propose an online electronic counter-countermeasure (ECCM) framework designed to conceal the strategic decision-making processes of a cognitive radar (CR) operating under adversarial surveillance. We model the CR under two distinct decision paradigms: a static constrained utility-maximizing behavior and a dynamic expected utility-maximizing behavior. The radar's utility function is modeled via a von Mises--Fisher (vMF) distribution, with the distributional parameter constituting the private information to be protected from adversarial inference. We adopt a distribution privacy framework to conceal this private information and provide formal distribution privacy guarantees for cognition masking. In this work, we develop cognition-hiding algorithms for both static constrained utility maximization (WDPCH-SU), and dynamic expected utility maximization (WDPCH-DU). Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we show that both WDPCH-SU and WDPCH-DU satisfy $ε$-distribution privacy ($ε$-DistP) against inference-based adversarial attacks and present the privacy--performance trade-off bounds, quantifying utility loss (in static setting) and expected utility deviation (in dynamic setting) as functions of $ε$. Numerical results show that WDPCH-SU gives about 15% improvement in utility loss at maximum privacy compared to the existing methodology while WDPCH-DU achieves a greater reduction in adversarial Fisher information without requiring explicit Fisher information constraints, at a moderate, analytically bounded utility deviation. These results are highly promising in many 6G communication scenarios such as network slicing for automated driving and swarm UAV coordination, where it is essential to keep the resource allocation policy robust against privacy attacks.

Aggregate metrics may not fully reflect performance in insufficiently examined high-risk driving conditions. We propose RISC (Risk-Informed Slice Coverage), a practical protocol for risk-guided stress testing and coverage-qualified evaluation. Risk-guided stress testing directs a finite audit budget toward risk-relevant sub-datasets, called risk slices, while coverage-qualified evaluation reports results together with explicit statements about which slices are sufficiently or insufficiently covered. The protocol translates safety concerns into machine-readable risk slices, uses lightweight signals to tag candidate data, selects a compact audit set by risk, and qualifies the results using coverage evidence. An LLM can optionally support this process by surfacing relevant but potentially overlooked conditions during test planning, thereby helping engineers not to forget the obvious. RISC is model-agnostic and can be applied to perception modules, driving models, and other autonomous-driving subsystems. We instantiate the protocol for monocular pedestrian perception using 1,000 frames from the Zenseact Open Dataset, image statistics, and a YOLO-based detector proxy. In this proof-of-concept study, risk-guided selection increases critical failure discovery from 34.0% under random sampling to 98.5%. RISC provides a lightweight, assurance-oriented evaluation layer that complements scenario categorization, coverage assessment, and broader testing-and-verification workflows.

Conformal changepoint localization turns any score into a confidence set for the changepoint with finite-sample coverage. Coverage is universal; efficiency is not. The oracle score is a likelihood ratio, so practical scores estimate density ratios, and set length deteriorates under heavy tails, skewness, and distribution shift, where no length guarantee applies. We propose ARC (Augmented-Rank Conformalization), a family of scores depending on the data only through within-segment ranks: rank-CUSUM location and scale channels, their fixed combinations, and a lightweight neural score frozen after synthetic training. Every ARC score inherits finite-sample coverage for every frozen weight configuration, including random initialization and mistraining. The main result is an efficiency transfer theorem: the entire ARC confidence set is almost surely invariant under strictly increasing marginal transforms, so the set length distribution depends on the data pair only through its rank structure, and lengths certified once hold verbatim across its monotone orbit, whereas a plug-in score's length changes with every re-expression. Across different rank structures lengths do change, and are reported as such. Classical rank-test theory positions ARC as targeting the optimal invariant score at bounded cost. Simulations confirm nominal coverage for all scores, including sabotaged networks, identical sets under monotone transforms where plug-in scores inflate, and smooth degradation where plug-in sets become vacuous; on the well-log benchmark ARC localizes annotated shifts to three to five candidates and flags misfit by an empty set. Two boundaries are stated rather than hidden: serial dependence destroys exactness, and trend-type alternatives lie outside the piecewise-exchangeable model.

Sub-model federated learning lets resource-constrained clients train width-reduced versions of a global model, but existing methods allocate capacity by device resources alone. A natural next step, allocating capacity by each client's data heterogeneity as estimated from the updates the server already observes, has been repeatedly suggested. We ask whether that step is possible, using HAS-FL, an adaptive capacity-allocation framework, as a test case. Our findings are threefold. First, validated against ground-truth label-distribution divergence on reproducible partitions, update-divergence estimates of client heterogeneity are dominated by capacity rather than data: across two corrected estimators, multiple datasets, and all seeds, the estimates correlate strongly and negatively with device capacity, and no data signal remains once capacity is controlled for. This previously undocumented confound affects any method estimating client statistics from sub-model updates. Second, adaptive allocation has a hidden failure mode: when every client is capped below full width, the uncovered parameters stay at random initialization and progressively corrupt the global model. A simple coverage guarantee removes the failure and explains why uniform allocation collapses. Third, a matched-budget control settles what adaptivity contributes: random allocation to the same average budget performs no differently on both image benchmarks, and on the naturally partitioned text benchmark the adaptive policy is the weakest of the three strategies while consuming the most capacity. Sub-model training remains valuable because it admits constrained clients at quadratically reduced cost, but what protects accuracy is parameter coverage rather than allocation intelligence. Its apparent benefits come from capacity budgeting and coverage, and future designs need heterogeneity signals separable from capacity effects.

Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable. Randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP) mitigates this gap by calibrating near the test point while preserving marginal coverage. Existing theory, however, lacks finite-sample guarantees for the realized localized set that jointly control conditional validity and oracle efficiency. We provide such guarantees. For any fixed score, under Hölder regularity of the conditional score CDF and standard density and kernel assumptions, we prove high-probability bounds, uniform over a realized localization neighbourhood, for the conditional-coverage gap and the length error relative to the oracle. The bounds decompose into an $O(h^β)$ localization bias and a calibration term decreasing with calibration size, clarifying the bandwidth bias-variance tradeoff and when RLCP tracks the oracle. We also analyze data-split learned scores: when the score targets a pivotal score, as in conformalized quantile regression, uniform local guarantees decompose into fixed-score calibration and uniform score-estimation errors, showing that improved learning sharpens localized guarantees.

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that has recently been adapted to large language models (LLMs), providing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability. Yet for LLMs, nonconformity scores are often induced by an inference pipeline, not just a fixed model, making them depend not only on the data distribution but also on configurable factors such as the prompt template, decoding parameters, and deployment setting. Since such configurations are routinely modified in practice but rarely treated as a source of shift, their impact on CP validity remains poorly understood. We call this \emph{configuration shift} and study it systematically along three axes: prompt template, decoding temperature, and weight quantization. In a broad empirical study spanning $9$ LLMs, $4$ datasets, and $4$ nonconformity scores, we find that configuration shift consistently erodes CP validity, often driving empirical coverage below the target. By contrast, efficiency is largely preserved: valid prediction sets remain close in size to the i.i.d. baseline. We derive coverage lower bounds that attribute this loss to a discrepancy between calibration and test score distributions, and use their finite-sample plug-in versions as empirical diagnostics of shift severity. We further show that these findings lead to practical mitigations: bound-inspired recalibration is effective with limited test examples, while fragility-aware calibration ensembling recovers much of the lost coverage without test data.

High-stakes decision systems in credit scoring, fraud detection, healthcare, and industrial safety require reliable uncertainty quantification under severe class imbalance and asymmetric error costs. Standard marginal conformal prediction (CP) provides valid overall coverage guarantees; however, we show that it severely under-covers rare, costly minority classes, with minority-class coverage dropping to as low as 0.5% on certain datasets. To characterize and address this limitation, we conduct a comprehensive benchmark comparing marginal CP, class-conditional (Mondrian) CP, and cost-controlled abstention mechanisms across 15 real-world imbalanced tabular datasets, 7 classification models, 3 probability calibration techniques, and 10 random seeds, resulting in 3,150 experimental runs. Our results show that Mondrian CP restores valid minority-class coverage, achieving an average minority-coverage improvement of 61.7 percentage points over marginal CP (p < 1e-80). Furthermore, combining Mondrian CP with cost-controlled abstention significantly reduces expected decision cost compared with standard decision boundaries, confidence-based rejectors, and risk-controlled rejectors under realistic human review budgets. We further quantify dataset-specific break-even thresholds at which deferring ambiguous instances to human experts becomes cost-effective. These findings provide practical guidance for deploying distribution-free, cost-aware uncertainty quantification in high-stakes decision support systems.

Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{è}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations. First, their guarantees control only the \emph{signed} long-run coverage error: persistent miscoverage in one direction can be masked by compensating errors later, so a method can satisfy the theoretical guarantee while being badly wrong for extended periods. Second, existing guarantees say nothing about prediction-set size, so validity can be achieved trivially at the cost of unduly wide prediction sets. Third, the efficiency guarantees that do exist compare against a \emph{fixed} predictor chosen in hindsight, a benchmark that becomes increasingly less meaningful once the data-generating distribution shifts, since the very notion of an optimal threshold then changes over time. We consider a unified online learning framework that simultaneously controls absolute, non-cancelling coverage violation and prediction-set efficiency against a dynamically evolving benchmark for three important models. In the fully adversarial setting, exploiting the fact that the standard ACI update is exactly projected online gradient descent on the pinball loss, we derive simultaneous coverage and efficiency guarantees for arbitrary monotone Lipschitz efficiency objectives, with no distributional or {\it convexity} assumptions. In the stochastic setting with full-score feedback, we propose a sliding-window quantile tracker and establish a matching minimax lower bound showing our algorithm is rate-optimal. In the covariate-dependent stochastic setting, we develop a partitioned ACI algorithm that tracks a function-valued oracle threshold, and derive simultaneous coverage and efficiency guarantees.

This letter proposes the Predictive Lightweight Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (PL-MARL) framework to ensure resilient coverage in bandwidth-constrained UAV swarms. To counter coordination collapse caused by sparse signaling and information aging, we introduce a Kinematic-Aware Inference Engine that proactively reconstructs neighbor trajectories via physical priors. This approach enables an efficient computation-for-communication trade-off, decoupling structural resilience from signaling frequency. Simulations confirm that PL-MARL maintains superior coverage and mission continuity under extreme signaling scarcity and node failure. Our results validate proactive inference as a scalable, low-latency solution for robust aerial coordination, effectively minimizing control overhead to preserve spectrum for payload services while ensuring resilience against interference.

Reachability analysis is central to safety-critical control, robotics, and neural network verification, but classical computational methods, such as Hamilton--Jacobi reachability and set propagation, scale poorly with state dimension. Sampling-based methods have emerged as a promising alternative, often providing finite-sample guarantees that bound the probability-mass left uncovered. However, an explicit account of how the geometry of the initial set, the dynamics, and the sampling law affect the accuracy of the estimator is not fully available in the literature. We study this by casting sampling-based reachable-set recovery as geometric support estimation over a family of problems specified by an initial set, its dynamics, and a sampling law. First, we identify two regularity properties, positive reach of the initial set's complement and Lipschitz continuity of the dynamics, that together make recovery well-posed: a probability-mass coverage guarantee can be upgraded to accuracy $r$ in Hausdorff distance. Second, we bound the resulting sample complexity: recovery is achievable with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big((e^{3LT}/r)^n\big)$ samples, exponential in both the state dimension and the time horizon. Third, we show that neither can be removed: an minimax lower bound of $Ω\big((e^{LT}/r)^n\big)$ holds for every estimator, so the exponential dependence on dimension and the degradation over the horizon are both intrinsic, not artifacts of a particular method. Experiments on nonlinear systems confirm that adversarial sampling improves constants but not the scaling.

Conformal prediction certifies that a classifier's prediction sets cover the truth, and that certificate is marginal. Many recognition benchmarks build distribution shift into evaluation, placing disjoint conditions in the training and test splits. Under that shift the certificate stays reassuring while per class coverage fails silently: on a real cross subject skeleton benchmark marginal coverage holds near ninety percent while the worst class is covered about seventy percent and ten of sixty classes fall below eighty percent. This class specific undercoverage stays hidden behind a single reassuring marginal number. Once the shift acts jointly on covariates and labels, the target class conditional score law is unidentified, so no label free method is at once per class valid and efficient uniformly over target laws consistent with the observed source joint distribution and target covariate marginal. The per class labels needed to recover every class threshold to a given tolerance grow as the inverse square of that tolerance and the logarithm of the class count, with matching bounds for classwise threshold procedures. Pseudo labels do not shortcut it: the best prediction powered estimator gains at most a small constant factor where coverage collapses. Across three real shifts and an image corruption benchmark, source label calibration recovers much of the gap while marginal coverage holds, and stops once it breaks.

Prior studies have demonstrated that diffusion classifiers achieve robust zero-shot classification performance. However, their effectiveness is strongly tied to the pretraining data distribution: they perform well in majority, high-density regions of the data manifold, but are significantly less accurate in minority, low-density regions. Although prior works on minority sampling have focused on generating more minority-like images, what minority sampling fundamentally enables beyond generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we reveal a direct relationship between minority sampling in generation and the perception capability of diffusion classifiers. Specifically, we show that enhancing minority sampling broadens the coverage of underrepresented regions on the data manifold, thereby improving diffusion-based recognition. To exploit this connection, we propose \textit{Self-Improving Diffusion Classifiers with Minority Preference Optimization} (MiPO), which fine-tunes a pretrained diffusion model using minority preference rewards. Using only arbitrary caption data, MiPO generates candidate samples, rewards those that better cover minority regions, and optimizes the model with LoRA and Group Relative Policy Optimization, without additional image data, external foundation models, or external reward models. This enables stable, prompt-adaptive minority sampling and translates low-density generative coverage into improved zero-shot diffusion classification. To sum up, we show that diffusion classifier perception is biased toward majority regions, demonstrate that this bias can be alleviated through minority preference optimization, and evaluate MiPO on five standard datasets.

While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost. Recent methods, including Jackknife+ and Jackknife-minmax, achieve faster computation by trading a slight loss of efficiency relative to full conformal prediction, but still requires computing leave-one-out refits for all observations. In this paper, we further accelerate conformal prediction by incorporating approximate leave-one-out (ALO) estimators, and establish asymptotic coverage and efficiency. While our proof draws on methods developed for analyzing the consistency of ALO cross-validation risk estimators in high-dimensional statistics, it requires adaptations to handle conformal prediction, where leave-$i$-out residuals are needed for predictions at $x_{n+1}$ rather than just at the training covariate $x_i$. Simulation results validate our theoretical findings, showing that the ALO-based methods achieve coverage and efficiency comparable to the exact methods, while significantly reducing the runtime.

Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. The statistical efficiency of these intervals depends critically on how the data are split into training and calibration samples. Despite its practical importance, a principled characterization of the training-calibration split that minimizes prediction interval length while maintaining coverage has remained largely unresolved. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for optimal data splitting in split conformal prediction. We first analyze the problem in a general setting and derive analytical characterizations of the length-optimal split ratio under both symmetric and asymmetric regimes. We then show how the general results specialize to several commonly used regression settings, including linear regression, nonparametric regression, and neural networks, thereby demonstrating the scope of the framework. We also describe a data-based method for selecting the optimal proportion. Our analysis clarifies how model-related features govern the optimal allocation of samples between training and calibration and provides principled guidance for constructing shorter prediction intervals. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology across a variety of practical scenarios.

Conformal predictions have attracted significant attention in the field of uncertainty quantification, mainly because of their strong marginal coverage guarantees. Full conditional guarantee is not an attainable goal, a well known fact in conformal predictions literature. As a result, several approaches have tried to approximate this behavior by adapting the conformal sets of test-time samples according to their similarity to calibration examples. Although the latter has gained traction and shown impressive performances for regression problems, its application to image classification remains under-explored. We conduct an extensive benchmarking on natural image classification tasks with vision-language models (VLMs), using our open source implementation of a recent localized conformal prediction algorithm. We show that straightforward usage of the cosine similarity between test-time and calibration visual features, an intuitive choice for VLMs, is not sufficient to improve over the non-local baselines. In response, we propose a simple non-linear transformation of the cosine similarities, which conserves marginal coverage guarantees and achieves statistically significant mean set sizes reduction. Code is available at https://github.com/cfuchs2023/lcp-vlm/.

Prediction sets should have high coverage to be useful, but some coverage notions are more practically relevant than others. In the classification setting, class-conditional coverage requires that the prediction set (i.e., the set of candidate labels for a new test point) must achieve the target accuracy level within each class, which may be challenging to satisfy when many classes are rare and have few calibration points. At the other extreme, marginal coverage requires only that coverage holds on average over the distribution of all classes, which can lead to low-probability labels being essentially ignored. To find a middle ground, recent work has introduced macro-coverage, defined as the unweighted average of class-conditional coverages. Macro-coverage offers a compromise between marginal coverage and class-conditional coverage that is particularly appropriate for long-tailed settings. In this work, we show that label-weighted conformal prediction can be used to produce prediction sets with a finite-sample macro-coverage guarantee, and more generally a guarantee on a family of generalized macro-coverage objectives that aggregate coverage at the level of arbitrary class groupings and take a weighted average. We further characterize the form of the smallest prediction sets satisfying a given generalized macro-coverage objective and propose a corresponding conformal score function. We validate our theoretical results on two large-scale image classification datasets.

The deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) as open radio units (O-RUs) in 6G cellular systems presents a promising opportunity to achieve scalable and adaptive network coverage. However, optimizing UAV trajectories in dynamic and unfamiliar environments remains a critical challenge, particularly due to the need for extensive retraining in each new scenario. In this paper, we introduce a novel UAV trajectory optimization framework that integrates enhanced continual transfer learning within the O-RAN architecture. The proposed system maintains a library of pre-trained models and employs a model selection mechanism to identify and transfer knowledge from the most relevant environments, minimizing adaptation time and improving efficiency. When no sufficiently similar model is available, a fallback model empowered by continuous refinements ensures baseline performance. The framework leverages real-world city maps and ray tracing techniques to enhance learning reliability and improve trajectory planning. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model selection-based transfer learning approach reduces convergence time by 44% to 56% compared to retraining from scratch, and up to 40% compared to traditional transfer learning without model selection.

This paper studies learning-augmented online weighted vertex cover with advice and a parameter $λ\in (0,1)$. We consider two graph cases: bipartite graphs and general graphs. In both settings, the online algorithm must maintain a feasible vertex cover under irrevocable decisions. We show that these problems admit the same robustness--consistency tradeoffs as learning-augmented ski rental. For the bipartite graph model, we give a randomized algorithm that is $\frac{1}{1-e^{-λ}}$-robust and $\fracλ{1-e^{-λ}}$-consistent. For the general graph model, we give a deterministic algorithm that is $(1+\frac{1}λ)$-robust and $(1+λ)$-consistent. We prove that the tradeoffs above are optimal in both settings. We also validate the proposed algorithms through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Peer-referral recruitment systems such as respondent-driven sampling are critical for studying and intervening on hidden populations affected by infectious diseases. To accelerate recruitment, public health agencies must adaptively allocate limited referral resources across multiple rounds, where current decisions shape both the number and the covariates of future recruits. Prior work makes this problem tractable by assuming that referrals are drawn i.i.d.\ from a homogeneous population, an assumption that ignores the homophily and shared context that drive real peer recruitment. We instead consider a more realistic model in which both referral capacity and the covariates of newly referred individuals are conditioned on the referrer, learned from data with a censored count model and a conditional generative model. The resulting planning problem is challenging because each candidate allocation induces a different distribution over future recruits. We propose \emph{Generative Frontier Planning} (GFP), a model-based planner that replaces per-step Monte-Carlo sampling with a deterministic backup over a latent covariate-coverage value surrogate. The surrogate is designed so that the expected value of the next frontier depends on the offspring generative model only through finite-dimensional summaries that are amortized offline, and so that the resulting per-round objective is monotone with diminishing returns. Together, these two properties make planning tractable: the deterministic backup eliminates Monte-Carlo sampling, and the diminishing-returns structure lets a marginal greedy allocation achieve a $(1-1/e)$-approximation for the per-round problem. On a simulation environment calibrated to a real respondent-driven sampling dataset, GFP outperforms random, reinforcement-learning, and i.i.d.\ dynamic-programming baselines across four discount factors.

Advertising platforms use randomized lift tests to measure incrementality, but privacy-preserving reporting systems degrade the observed signal through match-rate loss, linkability loss, attribution-window loss, aggregation-threshold suppression, randomized reporting noise, and segment-heterogeneous signal loss. This paper formulates privacy-constrained advertising measurement as a robust causal decision problem under the mentioned signal losses. Given a randomized experiment and an ambiguity set for privacy-induced degradation, the framework projects the observation-compatible fiber of clean/unfiltered experimental worlds onto the incrementality functional and returns certified, rejected, and unresolved decisions. The main result gives a sharp decision frontier. Reports outside the frontier support uniformly valid certification or rejection, whereas reports inside it contain too little information for any method to uniformly distinguish above-threshold incrementality from non-incrementality. Supporting results give finite-sample certification, sample-complexity guarantees, a minimax lower bound showing that signal loss reduces effective information, and a reporting-granularity tradeoff. On 2.0M Criteo Uplift rows and the 64K-row Hillstrom email experiment, clean conversion lift is positive in both datasets, with lifts 0.00112 and 0.00495, respectively. Population certification survives mild degradation in Criteo and severe degradation in Hillstrom, while all considered finite-sample stress settings in both datasets remain unresolved after simultaneous uncertainty and reporting noise are included. Overall, the research contributes a decision-theoretic layer for privacy-aware incrementality measurement whose output is the strongest causal-claim justified by degraded ads signals.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects roughly 25% of global adults, posing substantial hepatic and cardiovascular risks. Yet, population-level screening tools remain inadequate. We present Method, a machine-learning framework for NAFLD risk prediction coupling gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction to yield calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees on individual risk estimates. It integrates a mutual-information-based stability selection procedure to identify a compact, clinically interpretable feature subset via bootstrap resampling, constructing prediction sets whose marginal coverage provably exceeds a user-specified confidence level. We evaluated Method on a multicenter cohort from Guangzhou, China (primary n=2,187; external validation n=412) using 78 candidate features across demographics, metabolic biomarkers, and lifestyle factors. Method achieves an AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, outperforming deep neural networks, TabNet, support vector machines, and logistic regression. Conformal prediction sets achieve 91.3% empirical coverage at the 90% nominal level. A three-tier risk stratification derived from these scores separates the population into distinct groups, with the high-risk subgroup showing a 12-month progression rate 4.7 times that of the low-risk tier. The selected features -- notably waist circumference, ALT, GGT, triglycerides, fasting glucose, and BMI -- align with established metabolic risk factors, providing biological plausibility.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for the deployment of machine learning predictors in real-world scenarios where the data distribution may shift over time (i.e., data may not be exchangeable). Online conformal prediction (OCP) methods address this issue at the expense of either (i) group-wise error control or (ii) learning-rate independent implementation. Group-conditional coverage is essential for fairness across different collections of data points and for providing finer UQ guarantees. Parameter-free optimization is crucial for robustness to adversarial and unknown data shifts. We propose a parameter-free algorithm for group-conditional OCP and demonstrate that it achieves the best group-conditional coverage guarantees. We evaluate our algorithm on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating that our method not only improves the reliability of existing parameter-free OCP methods but also provides prediction intervals that are comparable in size to well-tuned group-conditional approaches. By unifying group-conditional coverage with parameter-free online algorithms, our work lays a foundation for fair and robust uncertainty quantification in shifting environments.

The Maximal Covering Location-Interdiction Problem (MCLIP) is a classic bi-level optimization problem, which is fundamental to resilient infrastructure planning yet remains computationally intractable. Specifically, the upper level determines facility locations to maximize coverage, while the lower level executes worst-case interdiction to minimize the coverage. The strong coupling between the upper and lower levels, combined with their respective high combinatorial complexity, renders traditional methods ineffective. To bridge this gap, we propose a Dual-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (DADRL) framework based on adversarial learning, comprising a location agent corresponding to the upper level and an interdiction agent corresponding to the lower level. Our contributions are threefold: (1) The location agent is trained simultaneously against an evolving interdiction agent, making it effectively capture the dynamic competitive interplay between the upper and lower levels; (2) To fully exploit the learned capabilities of the interdiction agent, we propose a Surrogate-based Ensemble Inference Strategy that utilizes the trained interdiction agent as a high-fidelity surrogate to guide the decisions of location agent; (3) Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves superior computational efficiency while maintaining highly competitive solution quality compared to other baselines. Furthermore, our DADRL framework is model-agnostic to network structures, while its underlying adversarial learning paradigm demonstrates strong potential for solving other bi-level optimization problems.

Online experiments in ads, recommendation, and member-experience systems are often planned before the dominant interference mechanism is known. A treatment may propagate through budgets, inventory, producer exposure, graph spillovers, or temporal carryover, making the randomization design itself a statistical decision. We formulate this problem as robust design selection over uncertain exposure mechanisms. Given a finite catalog of six implementable designs, the selector compares each design by worst-case planning risk over an ambiguity set. The risk combines exposure bias, assignment-unit variance, minimum detectable effect, contamination or carryover, operational cost, and estimand mismatch. For theoretical justification, the paper develops a geometry-aware guarantee, stating that design bias is bounded by Wasserstein distance to the launch exposure distribution, and this penalty is minimax tight under Lipschitz exposure response. We also prove finite-catalog approximation and a robust selector theorem with excess-risk control, exact recovery under separation, and certified shortlists when the risk surface is flat. Empirically, the same selector gives different recommendations across samples from public datasets. It selects user-randomization on Criteo ads with dimensionless robust risk 1.295, switchbacks on Open Bandit-bts/men with risk 2.105, and cluster-randomization on KuaiRand with risk 2.240. The Open Bandit case stresses known but uneven logging support, with propensities from 0.00006 to 0.594 and a 5.17% IPS effective-sample share. Overall, the paper contributes an interference-aware experiment design framework based on mechanism-robust design decisions, where the output is either a justified design choice or an uncertainty shortlist.

We consider the problem of combining potential field and ergodic search on multi-robot systems. Traditional ergodic search algorithms use metrics for ergodicity that account for the desired distribution at different scales. Recently, a heat equation-driven ergodic approach was proposed, which adds flexibility to the smoothing of the ergodic metric. However, such an approach, as it is an isotropic diffusion, propagates the error uniformly in all directions, regardless of changes in the desired distribution. We introduce a general class of anisotropic diffusion formulation of the ergodicity problem, which generates a potential field for the ergodic search. We demonstrate that this approach generalizes previous results, which consider radial basis functions and the solution of the heat equation to represent the difference between the goal density distribution and the covered trajectories. In our solution, the agent movement is directed using the gradient of the solution of the Perona-Malik diffusion, and our formulation includes the heat equation as a special case. We demonstrate the methodology with a series of simulations in different scenarios.

In this work, we address the problem of multi-robot adaptive coverage, where teams of robots perform dynamic sampling by continuously adjusting their positions to collect data in an environment. This task can be challenging, particularly when robots must be efficiently allocated to new sampling locations over time. Ergodic search methods optimize robot trajectories by ensuring that the robots' time-averaged spatial distribution aligns with the spatial distribution of environmental information. While these methods promote effective exploration provided a target distribution, they often fail to account for unknown prior distributions of the environment. To overcome this limitation, we propose an adaptive coverage strategy that utilizes real-time feedback from an environmental model to adjust robot sampling behavior in response to unknown conditions. Our approach enhances traditional ergodic trajectory optimization by constructing a target spatial information distribution based on parametric models of the environment, which are updated online. This strategy assumes that the environment is either static or changes slowly compared to the robot's motion. Our framework allows robots to dynamically prioritize regions of high interest, improving coverage efficiency, synthesizing effective control policies for individual agents, and optimizing resource use in settings with unknown prior distributions. We validate our approach through simulations, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing coverage and resource allocation.

Autonomous drone swarms deployed for surveillance, environmental monitoring, and infrastructure inspection must maintain reliable coverage of critical assets despite robot failures. This requires multicoverage: each asset must be observed by multiple robots for redundancy, with coverage requirements varying by asset importance. While recent work has solved the centralized problem optimally using integer programming, practical deployments face constraints that demand distributed solutions: robots operate with limited communication ranges, onboard computation restricts global planning, and partial system failures must not cause mission abort. We present a distributed multicoverage algorithm for robot swarms operating with local sensing, local communication, and no global coordination.

Modern artificial intelligence systems require calibrated uncertainty estimates that remain reliable in sequential and non-stationary environments. Online conformal prediction (OCP) addresses this challenge through adaptively updated prediction sets that provide deterministic long-run miscoverage guarantees. These guarantees, however, hinge on the assumption of perfect feedback about the coverage of past prediction sets. In practice, the observed miscoverage indicator may be corrupted by noise, communication failures, or adversarial manipulation, which can severely degrade OCP's calibration guarantees. In this paper, we study OCP under corrupted feedback. We first model feedback corruption as an arbitrary binary flip sequence, and analyze how feedback corruption affects and degrades the miscoverage performance of standard OCP. We then propose two robust schemes: robust OCP via filtering, which leverages the structural properties of the predicted threshold to filter corrupted feedback, and robust OCP via active compensation, which incorporates an active compensation mechanism to mitigate the effect of corrupted feedback. For both methods, we establish explicit miscoverage guarantees, which are further specialized for an independent stochastic flip model and for an arbitrary error model with memory bounds. Experiments on real-world datasets validate the proposed approach, showing markedly improved calibration and significantly smaller prediction sets compared with baseline OCP methods under corrupted feedback.

Bayesian conformal optimisation methods often use the same held-out data both to search for efficient prediction sets and to certify coverage or risk. This coupling is natural for high-probability risk-control guarantees, but it is not necessary when the target is standard finite-sample marginal conformal coverage. We propose Decoupled Conformal Optimisation (DCO), a train-tune-calibrate design principle that uses an independent tuning split for efficiency-oriented structural selection and a fresh calibration split for the final conformal quantile. Conditional on the tuned structure, standard split-conformal exchangeability yields finite-sample marginal coverage for any candidate class, without a confidence parameter or multiple-testing correction. DCO therefore targets a different finite-sample guarantee from PAC-style methods: marginal conformal coverage rather than high-probability risk control. Under consistency assumptions on the coupled risk bound, the two approaches nevertheless converge to the same population threshold. Across classification and regression benchmarks, including ImageNet-A, CIFAR-100, Diabetes, California Housing, and Concrete, DCO tracks the nominal coverage level closely while often reducing average prediction-set size or interval width relative to PAC-style calibration. On ImageNet-A, for example, the average set size decreases from $26.52$ to $25.26$ and the 95th-percentile set size from $58.95$ to $53.73$; on Diabetes, the average interval width decreases from $2.098$ to $1.914$.

Neuro-Symbolic Concept-based Models (NeSy-CBMs) are a family of architectures that integrate neural networks with symbolic reasoning for enhanced reliability in high-stakes applications. They work by first extracting high-level concepts from the input and then inferring a task label from these compatibly with given logical constraints. Yet, their label and concept predictions can be overconfident, making it difficult for stakeholders to gauge when the model's decisions can be trusted. We address this issue by integrating ideas from Conformal Prediction (CP), a framework providing rigorous, distribution-free coverage guarantees. We formalize three desiderata -- consistency, coverage, and conciseness -- that any conformal method for NeSy-CBMs should satisfy, and show that existing approaches fall short of at least one. We then introduce COCOCO, a post-hoc framework that conformalizes concepts and labels jointly and reconciles them via a single deduction-abduction revision step. COCOCO satisfies all three desiderata, retains distribution-free coverage, is robust to imperfect knowledge and supports user-specified size budgets. Our experiments on 8 data sets highlight how COCOCO compares favorably against competitors and natural baselines in terms of performance and set size.

A unified framework for learning under covariate shift is presented, in which a constrained density-ratio network approximates the Radon-Nikodym derivative $r^\star = dP/dQ$ and feeds an anytime PAC-Bayes generalization certificate. A change-of-measure identity decomposes the gap between target risk and importance-weighted source risk into a ratio-bias term governed by $\|r_θ- r^\star\|_{L^2(Q)}$ and a generalization-gap term governed by the variability of the weighted loss. Normalization and moment-matching identities are enforced as hard integral constraints through an augmented-Lagrangian scheme, with a second-moment penalty controlling the effective sample size. PAC-Bayes is instantiated on the weighted risk in a fixed-time regime that yields Bernoulli-KL bounds, identifies the network-weighted Gibbs posterior as the unique KL-regularized minimizer, and quantifies stability under $L^2(Q)$ perturbations of the learned ratio, and is then strengthened by geometric peeling to an anytime certificate uniform in $t \geq t_{\min}$. A pre-registered two-campaign protocol combining a patch test against analytic ground truth with a real-data deployment validates the framework: the network produces calibrated ratios, reduces target $0/1$ loss against unweighted ERM and classical direct ratio-estimation baselines, and attains the anytime certificate. A single fixed-time coverage failure is recorded, with per-split coverage aligning one-to-one with the magnitude of the label shift, confirming that the covariate-only assumption is operationally tight rather than a defect of the certificate.

Autonomous robotic exploration in remote and extreme environments allows scientists to model complex transport phenomena and collective behaviors described by continuously deforming flow fields. Although these environments are naturally modeled as time-varying domains, most adaptive exploration methods assume static environments and fail to provide adequate coverage or satisfy any formal guarantees. This is especially the case in oceanography where autonomous underwater systems (UxS) have highly restrictive compute and payload requirements that necessitate path planning methods that yield robust data collection strategies in open-loop and underactuated settings. In this work, to address the aforementioned issues, we propose to formulate adaptive search as an ergodic coverage problem and investigate certifying coverage in the ergodic sense over evolving domains with flow-induced dynamics. We expand upon recent work demonstrating maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a functional ergodic metric, and derive a flow-adaptive formulation that explicitly accounts for domain evolution within the coverage objective. We show that this approach preserves ergodic coverage guarantees in ambient flows and enables effective exploration in under-actuated, and even open-loop planning settings by integrating environment dynamics. Experiments validate that our method generalizes to diverse spatiotemporal processes including ocean exploration, and tracking human and cattle movement. Physical experiments on aerial and legged robotic platforms validate our ability to obtain ergodic coverage in non-convex, flow-restricted environments while respecting robot dynamics.

Designing continuous trajectories whose time-averaged occupancy provably matches a prescribed spatial density (the \emph{ergodic coverage} problem) is central to UAV-assisted data collection and sensing, robotic exploration, and mobile monitoring. For flying agents in particular, this challenge is acute: trajectories must balance coverage fidelity against tight energy budgets, no-fly zones, and acceleration limits. Existing methods either re-optimize each trajectory online (with cost growing in the horizon and re-running for every target, agent, and realization) or rely on bespoke analytical constructions that must be re-derived for each new constraint. We propose a \emph{epushforward} framework that decouples ergodicity from density matching: an analytic latent trajectory provides exact uniform ergodicity on a simple annular domain, and a single map, learned offline by optimal-transport conditional flow matching, transports this latent occupancy onto the prescribed target density. The composed trajectory is then asymptotically ergodic with respect to the learned pushforward distribution, with deviation from the target controlled by the flow-matching training loss. Once trained for a given target density and constraint set, the map serves an unbounded number of trajectories and a multi-agent fleet without per-agent retraining, and many differentiable operational constraints (no-fly zones, acceleration ceilings, or fairness penalties) enter as additive soft penalties in the training loss without re-deriving the design. We prove three results (an acceleration-energy bound, an $O(1/\sqrt{K})$ ergodic convergence rate in the number of trajectory cycles $K$, and an approximation-error bound) that combine into an end-to-end coverage bound estimable from CFM training diagnostics (certified given an architectural Lipschitz bound on $v_θ$).

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to be fixed before calibration, typically through data splitting. We introduce multi-variable conformal prediction (MCP), a framework that extends conformal prediction to vector-valued score functions with multiple simultaneous calibration variables. Building on scenario theory as a principled framework for certifying data-driven decisions, MCP unifies prediction set design and calibration into a single optimization problem, eliminating data splitting without sacrificing coverage guarantees. We propose two computationally efficient variants: RemMCP, grounded in constrained optimization with constraint removal, which admits a clean generalization of split conformal prediction; and RelMCP, based on iterative optimization with constraint relaxation, which supports non-convex score functions at the cost of possibly greater conservatism. Through numerical experiments on ellipsoidal and multi-modal prediction sets, we demonstrate that RemMCP and RelMCP consistently meet the target coverage with prediction set sizes smaller than or comparable to those of baselines with data split, while considerably reducing variance across calibration runs - a direct consequence of using all available data for shape optimization and calibration simultaneously.

Conformal prediction methods provide statistically rigorous marginal coverage guarantees for machine learning models, but such guarantees fail to account for algorithmic biases, thereby undermining fairness and trust. This paper introduces a fair conformal inference framework for classification tasks. The proposed method constructs prediction sets that guarantee conditional coverage on adaptively identified subgroups, which can be implicitly defined through nonlinear feature combinations. By balancing effectiveness and efficiency in producing compact, informative prediction sets and ensuring adaptive equalized coverage across unfairly treated subgroups, our approach paves a practical pathway toward trustworthy machine learning. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework.

Robust optimization (RO) provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its performance critically depends on the choice of the uncertainty set. While large sets ensure reliability, they often lead to overly conservative decisions, whereas small sets risk excluding the true outcome. Recent data-driven approaches, particularly conformal prediction, offer finite-sample validity guarantees but remain largely task-agnostic, ignoring the downstream decision structure. In this paper, we propose a decision-aware conformal framework that learns uncertainty sets tailored to robust optimization objectives. Our approach parameterizes a flexible family of polyhedral sets via data-driven hyperplanes and learns their geometry by directly minimizing the induced robust loss, while preserving statistical validity through conformal calibration. To correct for data-dependent selection, we incorporate a re-calibration step on an independent dataset to restore coverage. The resulting sets capture directional and anisotropic uncertainty aligned with the decision objective while remaining computationally tractable. We provide finite-sample coverage guarantees and bounds on the sub-optimality gap to an oracle decision. This work bridges the gap between statistical validity and decision optimality, providing a principled framework for data-driven robust optimization.

The rise of machine learning has shifted targeted resource allocation in policy and humanitarian settings toward algorithmic targeting based on predicted risk scores. This approach is typically cheaper and faster than traditional screening procedures that directly observe the latent vulnerability status through physical verification. Yet, even access to the true conditional vulnerability probability cannot eliminate misallocation: aleatoric uncertainty over individual vulnerability status is irreducible, and probabilistic targeting inevitably misallocates some resources. In this work we study how screening and algorithmic targeting should be optimally combined in a two-stage allocation framework where a screening stage observes true outcomes for a subset of units before a final allocation stage assigns the resource under a fixed coverage budget. We show that the optimal strategy screens units at the margin of algorithmic allocation, while directly targeting the highest-risk units. Furthermore, we empirically characterize when screening and algorithmic targeting act as complements or substitutes: efficiency gains from screening grow as the aleatoric uncertainty in the population increases. We illustrate our framework with applications in income-based social protection programs and humanitarian demining in Colombia, where the tension between screening costs and allocation efficiency is operationally consequential.

We present an accelerated relax-and-round algorithm for concave coverage problems, which generalize the classic maximum coverage problem. Building on the relax-and-round framework of Barman et al. [STACS 2021], we propose two significant improvements. First, we replace the linear programming (LP) relaxation step with a projected accelerated gradient method applied to a smooth surrogate objective to achieve a $\widetilde{O}(mn \varepsilon^{-1})$ running time. Second, we use a specialized rounding scheme for the hypersimplex that combines the Carathéodory decomposition algorithm in Karalias et al. [NeurIPS 2025] with randomized swap rounding of Chekuri et al. [FOCS 2010]. We prove tight approximation ratios for new reward functions, including a $0.827$-approximation for the logarithmic reward $\varphi(x) = \log(1 + x)$. Finally, we conduct maximum multi-coverage experiments on synthetic and real-world graphs, demonstrating that our algorithm outperforms approaches that use state-of-the-art LP solvers.

When multi-agent systems (MAS) fail, identifying where the decisive error occurred is the first step for automated recovery to an earlier state. Error attribution remains a fundamental challenge due to the long interaction traces that large language model-based MAS generate. This paper presents a framework for error attribution based on conformal prediction (CP) which provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees. We introduce new algorithms for filtration-based CP designed for sequential data such as agent trajectories. Unlike existing CP algorithms, our approach predicts sets that are contiguous sequences to enable efficient recovery and debugging. We verify our theoretical guarantees on a variety of agents and datasets, show that errors can be precisely isolated, then use prediction sets to rollback MAS to correct their own errors. Our overall approach is model-agnostic, and offers a principled uncertainty layer for MAS error attribution. We release code at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/conformal-agent-error-attribution.

Factorization machine with quadratic-optimization annealing (FMQA) is a black-box optimization method that combines a factorization machine (FM) surrogate with QUBO-based search by an Ising machine. When FMQA is applied to integer or discretized continuous variables via one-hot encoding, uniform random initial sampling can leave many binary variables never active in the initial training data, and the corresponding FM parameters receive no direct gradient updates from the observed responses. We address this by designing the initial training data to achieve complete marginal bit coverage, namely, ensuring that every binary variable obtained by one-hot encoding takes the value one at least once. We use two space-filling sampling methods, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and the Sobol' sequence, yielding LHS-FMQA and Sobol'-FMQA. On the human-powered aircraft wing-shape optimization benchmark with 17 and 32 design variables, both proposed methods achieved numerically higher mean final cruising speeds than the baseline FMQA, with the advantage more pronounced on the 32-variable problem.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard approach for improving reasoning in language models, yet models trained with RLVR often suffer from diversity collapse: while single-sample accuracy improves, multi-sample coverage degrades, sometimes falling below the base model. We provide a structural account of this phenomenon grounded in the properties of binary rewards. Binary rewards create a fundamental degeneracy for policy gradient methods: the set of distributions maximizing expected reward is infinite, with no distinguished element. KL-control resolves this degeneracy by selecting, in the limit $β\to 0$, the filtered model $p_*:=a(\cdot\mid\mathcal{Y}_1)$ -- the base model conditioned on validity -- which is the unique fully valid distribution closest to the base model in KL divergence. This selection operates through a nontrivial asymmetry: the tilted distribution $p_{[β]}\propto a(y)\,e^{v(y)/β}$ converges to $p_*$ in forward KL as $β\to 0$, yet $p_*$ cannot serve as a direct optimization target because $\mathrm{KL}(q\,\|\,p_*)$ is infinite for any full-support policy $q$. We develop explicit formulas relating the hyperparameter $β$ to the more interpretable target validity rate $μ$. Under model misspecification -- the typical practical regime -- the pressure to decrease $β$ drives the optimizer toward highly concentrated distributions over a small number of valid outputs, collapsing toward ever fewer as $β$ decreases, rather than toward the filtered model. We illustrate this mechanism on a toy autoregressive experiment and discuss how alternative divergences that target $p_*$ directly -- as pursued empirically by \citet{kruszewski_whatever_2026} -- avoid this failure mode by rewarding coverage of $p_*$'s support rather than concentration on high-validity outputs.

Accurate modeling of outdoor-to-indoor (O2I) and indoor-to-indoor (I2I) signal loss is important for improving indoor wireless network performance in dense urban areas. Traditional on-site measurements are expensive, time-consuming, and difficult to conduct across wide regions. Real-world datasets also tend to be noisy and imbalanced, which makes signal loss prediction challenging. This study presents a machine learning framework for classifying radio frequency (RF) building loss. The framework combines passively collected, crowdsourced user equipment (UE) data from 3GPP-compliant networks with public building information. We evaluated Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and a voting classifier using both supervised (SL) and semi-supervised learning (SSL). Compared to SL-only inference, the proposed SL and SSL framework improved both prediction accuracy and confidence under identical data constraints, achieving up to 12.6% relative accuracy gain for O2I loss and 3.4% for I2I loss, while reducing prediction entropy by up to 8.4%. Among the evaluated models, SSL XGBoost provided the most confident O2I loss classification, whereas SSL LightGBM achieved the best performance for I2I loss. These results demonstrate that the proposed approach provides a practical, data-driven alternative to traditional models, with promising potential to support better network planning and indoor coverage optimization.

Optimal wireless transmitter placement is a central task in radio-network planning, and exhaustive search becomes prohibitively expensive at scale. This paper studies the single-transmitter setting under a learned propagation model, enabling exhaustive per-pixel assessment at scale in a regime where measurement-based labeling is infeasible and ray-tracing-based labeling is computationally out of reach. We introduce a dataset of 167525 urban scenarios (RadioMapSeer-Deployment) with dual ground-truth labels for coverage-optimal and power-optimal transmitter locations. Benchmark analysis reveals an asymmetric coverage-power trade-off: coverage-optimal placement sacrifices 13.86% of received-power, whereas power-optimal placement sacrifices 5.50% of coverage; the best balanced placement lies at $\bar{d}=2.60$ from the ideal point (100%,100%). We evaluate two learning formulations: indirect heatmap-based models predicting received-power radio maps, and direct score-map models predicting the objective landscape over feasible transmitter locations. Within the heatmap family, discriminative models deliver one-shot predictions 1350-2400$\times$ faster than exhaustive search, while diffusion models additionally support multi-sample inference that improves single-objective performance and, by reusing the same sample pool under a balanced criterion, recovers strong balanced placements without explicit multi-objective training. Dual score-map strategies combining power and coverage score-maps match the exhaustive balanced optimum ($\bar{d}=2.60$) and remain close to it across smaller candidate budgets, at 14-22$\times$ speedups including the cost of evaluating shortlisted candidates. Dual score-map methods are strongest overall, whereas heatmap formulations remain attractive for their physically meaningful intermediate maps and, in the diffusion setting, for inference-time search.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in safety-critical systems, where decisions must be made under uncertainty. In particular, we consider the problem of online uncertainty quantification, where data points arrive sequentially. Online conformal prediction is a principled online uncertainty quantification method that dynamically constructs a prediction set at each time step. While existing methods for online conformal prediction provide long-run coverage guarantees without any distributional assumptions, they typically assume a full feedback setting in which the true label is always observed. In this paper, we propose a novel learning method for online conformal prediction with partial feedback from an adaptive adversary-a more challenging setup where the true label is revealed only when it lies inside the constructed prediction set. Specifically, we formulate online conformal prediction as an adversarial bandit problem by treating each candidate prediction set as an arm. Building on an existing algorithm for adversarial bandits, our method achieves a long-run coverage guarantee by explicitly establishing its connection to the regret of the learner. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in both independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and non-i.i.d. settings, showing that it successfully controls the miscoverage rate while maintaining a reasonable size of the prediction set.

Deep learning models may converge to suboptimal solutions despite strong validation accuracy, masking an optimization failure we term Trajectory Deviation. This is because as training proceeds, models can abandon high generalization states for specific data sub-populations, thus discarding previously learned latent features without triggering classical overfitting signals. To address this problem we introduce VISTA, an online self-distillation framework that enforces consistency along the optimization trajectory. Using a validation-informed Marginal Coverage score, VISTA identifies expert anchors, which are earlier model states that retain specialized competence over distinct data regions. A coverage-weighted ensemble of these anchors is integrated online during training, regularizing the loss landscape and preserving mastered knowledge. When evaluated across multiple benchmarks, VISTA demonstrates improved robustness and generalization over standard training and prior self-distillation methods, while a lightweight implementation reduces storage overhead by 90% without performance loss.

Maintaining situational awareness in high-stakes multi-robot applications requires balancing exploration of unobserved regions with sustained monitoring of changing Regions of Interest (ROIs), often under unknown and time-varying distributions, partial observability, and limited communication. We propose a decentralized multi-agent coverage framework that serves as a high-level planning strategy, in which each agent computes an adaptive ergodic policy, implemented via a Markov-chain, that tracks an updated belief over the underlying importance map. Beliefs are maintained online via Gaussian Process (GP) regression from local noisy observations exchanged with neighbors. The resulting policy drives agents to spend time in ROIs in proportion to their estimated importance, while preserving sufficient exploration to detect and adapt to time-varying environmental changes. Unlike existing approaches that assume known importance maps, centralized coordination, or a static environment, our framework addresses the combined challenges of unknown, time-varying distributions under a decentralized, partially observable setting. We further show that our framework is robust to communication and memory degradation, robot loss, and can scale up to hundreds of robots.

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a conformal prediction set that is uniformly valid across multiple, heterogeneous distributions, in the sense that no matter which distribution the test point is from, the coverage of the prediction set is guaranteed to exceed a pre-specified level. We first propose a max-p aggregation scheme that delivers finite-sample, multi-distribution coverage given any conformity scores associated with each distribution. Upon studying several efficiency optimization programs subject to uniform coverage, we prove the optimality and tightness of our aggregation scheme, and propose a general algorithm to learn conformity scores that lead to efficient prediction sets after the aggregation under standard conditions. We discuss how our framework relates to group-wise distributionally robust optimization, sub-population shift, fairness, and multi-source learning. In synthetic and real-data experiments, our method delivers valid worst-case coverage across multiple distributions while greatly reducing the set size compared with naively applying max-p aggregation to single-source conformity scores, and can be comparable in size to single-source prediction sets with popular, standard conformity scores.

Balancing resource efficiency and fairness is critical in networked systems that support modern learning applications. We introduce the \emph{Fair Minimum Labeling} (FML) problem: the task of designing a minimum-cost temporal edge activation plan that ensures each group of nodes in a network has sufficient access to a designated target set, according to specified coverage requirements. FML captures key trade-offs in systems where edge activations incur resource costs and equitable access is essential, such as distributed data collection, update dissemination in edge-cloud systems, and fair service restoration in critical infrastructure. We first give a structural characterisation of the single-terminal case, showing that it is equivalent to the rooted Covering Steiner problem. We prove that FML is NP-hard and admits no $((1-ε)\ln |\mathcal{C}|)$-approximation for $|\mathcal{C}|$ groups, already on a star, while for any fixed number of groups it inherits a constant-factor approximation and remains APX-hard. We then present probabilistic approximation algorithms for the two-group, single-terminal case: an algorithm whose tree subroutine is exact, hence optimal on tree-structured networks and $\mathcal{O}(\log |V|)$ in expectation on general graphs, together with a faster bicriteria variant whose coverage violation degrades gracefully with the merge depth of the tree computation. For practical scalability, we additionally introduce a graph-native variant based on a shortest-path-tree reduction. Empirical results show that FML enforces group-level fairness, while the graph-native variant substantially improves scalability and achieves competitive activation cost.