Populations

The high visual-token load in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) motivates training-free pruning to reduce later-layer computation, but under a fixed budget, pruning must preserve query-relevant evidence while avoiding redundancy. Existing methods rank tokens, diversify selected subsets, or optimize coverage without using a shared per-visual query utility to weight both visual targets and candidate representatives. We introduce QCPruner, which makes both roles query-conditioned through bilateral utility weighting. Using keyword-matched query anchors, QCPruner fuses two cross-modal cues into utility and applies it to both visual targets and candidate representatives within visual-affinity-based coverage. The resulting nonnegative facility-location objective is monotone and submodular, retains the standard (1-1/e) greedy guarantee, and requires no model training or parameter updates. Across LLaVA-1.5, LLaVA-NeXT, LLaVA-Video, and Qwen2.5-VL, QCPruner achieves the highest average relative performance among evaluated complete-system pruning methods at every reported token budget. At 32 of 576 tokens on LLaVA-1.5-7B, it retains 96.1% of unpruned performance, versus 93.9% for the strongest evaluated baseline. At 256 of 1296 tokens on Qwen2.5-VL-7B, the corresponding values are 96.7% and 92.5%.

Language-model agents are increasingly used as synthetic people in surveys and social simulations, yet their apparent realism is often judged from population averages or distributional similarity. We tested what such evidence actually establishes by comparing Claude, Codex and Kimi under four prespecified prompt designs with matched farmer decisions from China and four African countries. Some configurations reproduced observed means and adoption rates. However, their person-level predictions were weak; their decisions clustered around typical values and policy-relevant extremes were largely missing. Most strikingly, a simple generator fitted only to the observed marginal dis- tribution, and given no information about any farmer, achieved greater distributional similarity than every language-model configuration. Prompt additions produced conditional gains rather than uni- versal improvement: results varied with model, outcome, population and validation target. We call this the average-farmer illusion: a synthetic population can look realistic while failing to repro- duce who does what or how behaviour varies. We provide a claim-matched validation framework and reusable modular prompts that turn prompt construction into an auditable experimental process. Population-level resemblance should therefore be treated as the start of validation, not as evidence of individual simulation.

Informational active matter shows how measurement-informed decisions produce collective order, so far in systems that reach consensus. We design collective information engines structured by differentiation instead, and construct a minimal instance using anti-coordination games where differentiated role information has value. Within many coexisting games, agents infer their role from a noisy social signal grounded in a persistent identity, and role-following action feeds back into that signal, which shapes the incentive to follow roles. Resources accrued through coordinated role-play combine with identity variability to reinforce the schemas that generated them. The model thereby operationalizes Sewell's duality of schemas and resources in Structuration, a resolution to structure--agency debates across social science. The engine ignites when a social loop gain---the product of identity persistence, cognitive capacity, channel fidelity, and schema strength---exceeds one. For a repertoire of such schemas, roles emerge with increasing gain in a bifurcation cascade whose functional form is fixed by the repertoire's eigenvalue spectrum, ranging from monitorable logarithmic sequences to avalanches that arrive without warning. Resource accumulation supplies the fitness of a replicator dynamics on schema strengths, which selects the cascade type endogenously. Subcritical identity covariance reveals that type before onset, enabling early detection, while feedback channel parameters bias which type is selected. Platform design then becomes a control lever to throttle emergent coordination. This theory grounds distributional AGI takeoff in a mechanism and provides a monitor-based solution. Joining game theory, collective dynamics, and information engines, we open a route to an information thermodynamics of agent populations.

Multi-agent LLM deliberation has been explored as a scalable way to simulate public deliberation. For such simulations to be informative, persona agents should reflect population opinion patterns and interaction should shape their conclusions. We evaluate whether LLM-based deliberation can meet these two conditions using census-grounded Korean personas debating real policy questions benchmarked against national surveys. Persona agents do not reliably reproduce population opinion patterns: responses are often far more concentrated and frequently reverse demographic differences in the human data. Deliberations nonetheless produce reasoned, reciprocal, and varied arguments alongside substantial stance movement. Yet much of this movement does not require peer exchange: sealed-monologue agents change position at similar rates and reach nearly the same final balance as full debates, while groups initialized with very different positions often converge to similar endpoints. Anchoring population-informed starting positions, meanwhile, sharply suppresses updating. Thus, population representation, argument generation, and interaction-driven opinion change do not necessarily go together. The simulations readily surface arguments on both sides, though whether they capture the diversity of human perspectives remains untested, leaving open a promising role for argument surfacing even as population simulation requires further validation.

Demographic synthetic survey panels are often validated by matching aggregate answers to published surveys. We test what that certificate establishes across six multiselect batteries from four survey organisations in three countries. The headline analysis is restricted to three instruments whose synthetic cohort and human target share the stated population frame; three other batteries remain sensitivity analyses. The response contract dominates measured fidelity. In the aligned instruments, committed sets leave 66 of 128 model-battery option slots empty in panels of up to 500 respondents, versus 0 of 128 under per-option probability elicitation. Across eight uncapped model-instrument comparisons, probabilities reduce option-marginal MAE by 4.53 to 7.30 points. The capped instrument reverses on two models until the vectors are projected onto its stated maximum. These are measurement effects: human targets are realised check-all responses, whereas the vectors are latent inclusion propensities. Published marginal agreement also fails to discriminate respondent simulation from direct population estimation. On nine aligned model-battery pairs, a no-persona population-prevalence query averages 6.27 MAE versus 12.39 for committed panels and wins all nine comparisons. Constraint-aware probability vectors average 5.34 and beat the query on four of nine, so the baseline challenges the validation criterion rather than proving direct estimation uniformly best. On three unpublished demographic cells, neither approach beats reciting the national distribution. Population-marginal agreement is therefore evidence about an elicitation contract and an estimand obtainable without simulated respondents, not evidence of individual simulation.

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.

Satellite foundation models offer a globally available alternative to census data for commuting origin-destination (OD) generation, yet no study has systematically compared encoder paradigms within a single downstream pipeline. We ablate four satellite vision encoders: language-supervised (RemoteCLIP), self-supervised (DINOv3), and geographically grounded (SatCLIP, AlphaEarth) within an identical WeDAN graph diffusion framework across 1,925 US counties, 325 UK districts, and 14 global cities under five random seeds. Three main findings emerge. First, language-supervised features achieve the strongest in-distribution performance (RemoteCLIP CPC 0.602), while geographically grounded encoders transfer more reliably zero-shot: AlphaEarth improves CPC by 33% over RemoteCLIP on UK districts. Second, pretraining corpus scale alone is insufficient: DINOv3, trained on a substantially larger satellite corpus, underperforms RemoteCLIP by 0.091 CPC in-distribution and collapses to CPC 0.022 globally. Third, no encoder transfers usefully to global cities (best CPC 0.122 for RemoteCLIP, 0.022 for DINOv3), confirming cross-continental OD generation remains an open problem. We additionally clarify the semantics of the census noise parameter $η$, whose ordering reverses under cross-continental evaluation, a distinction critical to correctly interpreting prior results. Training scripts and evaluation logs will be released.

Ambient AI scribes draft clinical notes under the reassurance that a clinician signs every note. We audited three commercial AI scribes on the same 142 consultations: 565 notes from recorded UK primary-care and US ambulatory encounters plus authored scenarios. Twelve discovery passes proposed 13,678 candidate errors; the 5,898 clearing an importance filter went to an adversarial panel of two models from different families, each told to refute what it could, and 618 survived. One note in three (31.3% [27.0, 35.6]) carries a verified failure, concentrated in allergy and medication information, invented patient identity, and history written up as examination on telephone consultations that can contain none. No product was given a patient record; setting aside the two classes a record would have prefilled, invented identity and dates, the rate is 24.8% [20.8, 29.0]. One failure mode did not fit our scheme, drawn from published scribe-error taxonomies: a treatment the clinician retracts, recorded as delivered care. Two clinicians adjudicated blind, disjoint samples: a physician author upheld 20 of 21 findings (95.2% [77.3, 99.2]) and an independent clinician, not an author, 12 of 12 ([75.8, 100]); both judged every sampled refusal genuine. A failure rate depends on the instrument as much as the scribes. With model, evidence and settings fixed, the review instruction alone moves the share of candidates verified from 9.3% to 79.0%, and the reviewing family moves it too: alone at that instruction the gentler flags 54.8% of notes against 27.8%. Between 28% and 97% of sampled notes carry a failure depending on the standard. Published audits disagree among themselves by a margin instrument differences alone can produce: omission is 54-86% of their errors against our 23.1%. We release all 618 findings with transcript-side evidence, every prompt and model version, and the re-runnable pipeline.

Sequence models---the architecture family behind large language models and, increasingly, state-of-the-art image recognition---have redefined how machines learn from high-dimensional data. Yet population estimation from satellite imagery, a task that underpins infrastructure planning, public health, and disaster response, has scarcely benefited: leading systems still bind population to a uniform raster, disaggregating census counts onto grid cells through weighting surfaces built from ancillary data (e.g., in WorldPop and LandScan), which can introduce systematic spatial bias, and predicting population per grid cell with convolutional neural networks. In this approach, the administrative-unit structure in which the census was actually collected is discarded. We close this gap with MambaPop, which renders each administrative unit as a single polygon-masked satellite image and treats tract-level population estimation as a sequence-modeling problem over its image patches, pairing each tract image directly with its population label and eliminating the disaggregation step entirely. Built on the hybrid state-space--attention MambaVision backbone, MambaPop is, to our knowledge, the first method to learn population directly from an administrative unit's own image as well as the first to apply a state-space based (Mamba) hybrid architecture to the population estimation task. Across all $\sim$84{,}000 contiguous-US census tracts of the 2020 census, MambaPop attains a mean absolute error (MAE) of $1{,}141$ persons per tract, matching the strongest convolutional baseline (YOLOv11, MAE $1{,}122$).

Communication typically relies on a shared code, and any change to it must be coordinated between senders and receivers to avoid a breakdown of communication. The honeybee waggle dance illustrates this problem: species with horizontal combs point directly at a food source, while species with vertical combs cannot point directly and instead reference the dance to gravity, decoded against the position of the sun. We model the rise of the first of these codes and its evolutionary transition to the second in populations of bee-like agents, with selection acting at the level of colonies. In a horizontal-comb model, we find that direct pointing evolves readily when food is moderately hard to find by random search alone, whether because sites are few and large or many and small, and fails when food is too sparse to spark dances or so abundant that it is found without signaling. Adding an exogenous benefit for vertical combs, we then find that the transition to the gravity-referenced code is driven mainly by the mutation rate and the magnitude of this benefit, with the coupling between sender and receiver mutations playing a further role at low mutation rates. Given a favorable confluence of these factors, the transition proceeds reliably and without a breakdown of communication.

We introduce IO Factory, an AI-driven framework for simulating information and influence campaigns as fully integrated, traceable processes. The threat of digital manipulation now extends beyond persuasive text from individual language models to AI swarms, i.e., persistent groups of coordinated agents that adapt to platform feedback and disguise organized campaigns as ordinary social interaction. Because such campaigns cannot be identified from isolated messages alone, they must be analyzed across a continuous spectrum of planning, platform action, exposure, interpretation, measurement, and adaptation. IO Factory represents this process inside a controlled simulated platform, linking actor roles, platform actions, exposure records, structured model-based evaluations, and configured changes in the simulated population. We implement the architecture and evaluate it across configurations of up to 100,000 agents. The results show that IO Factory executes campaign timelines at scale and produces inspectable evidence of exposure and measured movement in configured belief variables. By recording the actors, objectives, action constraints, exposure paths, and measurement rules used in each run, IO Factory supports reproducible research and red-team analysis of coordinated influence.

Oracle routing measures how much a pool of language models could gain from per-query selection, but the diagnostic has two flaws: testing against a best fixed model selected on the same examples invalidates paired inference, and a full-information oracle sees outcomes no deployable router observes. We separate three estimands (outcome-oracle opportunity, the Bayes-optimal gain from a declared pre-answer signal, and the held-out gain of a learned router) and prove selection-valid confidence intervals that survive choosing the best fixed model or the best member of a router family, a signal-information sandwich, and a $(1-1/e)$ greedy guarantee for building compact pools from submodular complementary coverage. On eight checkpoints from six families over four benchmarks, selection-valid intervals certify a population oracle gap of $9.7$--$30.7$ points on every task, yet the strongest deployable prompt router recovers only $7.5$--$14.4\%$ of it, and the simultaneous interval for the best of eleven tested policies has lower limit zero throughout. The realizable share of oracle opportunity is small and certifiable: strong routers beat the best fixed model, and most of the gap remains.

Accurate, up-to-date income data at the sub-municipal scale is essential for social policy in middle-income countries, yet in Brazil it depends on a costly decennial census whose intercensal gap recently exceeded a decade. We test whether the composition of crowd-sourced Google Maps Points of Interest (POIs) can serve as a high-frequency, low-cost proxy for household income across the 26,625 census sectors of the municipality of Sao Paulo. Using a theoretically motivated set of POI categories retrieved from Google Places, we represent each sector by its POI counts, decompose these high-dimensional, sparse features with principal component analysis (PCA) and non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), and train a sweep of regression models to predict census-derived income. Under a data leakage-aware spatial validation design the best model (NMF with gradient boosting) attains a held-out R^2 of 0.65, with performance stable across feature-extraction methods. Interpretable decompositions reveal which POI types carry the income signal. These results suggest that commercial, crowd-sourced geospatial data can complement conventional income statistics during intercensal periods, and we discuss extensions toward multidimensional poverty and the capabilities framework.

Choosing which features to collect is a deployment decision: the same limited questionnaire, test panel, or sensor set may need to serve several heterogeneous populations. Standard feature-selection methods typically optimize for one large population, while existing robust approaches tend to learn one shared model for every population. We introduce PopFS, a method for learning one shared, deployable feature set that is robust to population differences while letting each pop- ulation train its own model. PopFS uses a tunable welfare objective that lets practitioners balance overall predictive ben- efit against stronger protection of the populations that benefit least. To make this objective practical at scale, PopFS first uses multitask sparse learning to reduce the candidate pool, then searches directly over hard feature sets by ranking promising additions and swaps and fully refitting only a shortlist. Across eight population splits from six prediction tasks drawn from five tabular and public-health datasets, PopFS consistently achieves strong average and worst-population performance while scaling to thousands of candidate features. A 43-state COVID-19 nowcasting study further shows that changing the welfare objective can improve the least-served states with lit- tle change in average performance and yields an interpretable change in the selected symptom signals. Our code is available at https://github.com/Rachel-Lyu/PopFS.

Accurate fracture risk prediction is important for osteoporosis management, but commonly used clinical tools may not fully use information available in electronic health records (EHRs) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) reports. We developed and externally validated time-to-event fracture prediction models among adults aged 50 years or older with clinically obtained DXA reports in 2 US health care systems. The development cohort was derived from NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center and the external validation cohort from the Indiana Network for Patient Care. Predictors included demographics, lifestyle factors, prior fracture, comorbidities, medication exposures, osteoporosis treatment history, and DXA-derived T-scores extracted from radiology reports. The outcome was time from index DXA to first incident fragility fracture identified from structured diagnosis codes. We evaluated penalized Cox regression, random survival forest, gradient-boosting survival, and XGBoost survival models using 2 prespecified predictor settings and compared discrimination with clinically reported FRAX major osteoporotic fracture probabilities. The development cohort included 11,510 adults, of whom 858 sustained incident fragility fractures; the external validation cohort included 1,932 adults, of whom 180 sustained fractures. In internal validation, the expanded Cox model achieved a mean Harrell C-index of 0.779, compared with 0.653 for FRAX. In external validation, the corresponding Cox model achieved a Harrell C-index of 0.714, compared with 0.590 for FRAX; gradient-boosting survival had the highest external discrimination (0.725). EHR- and DXA-enhanced models showed better discrimination than clinically reported FRAX scores in this DXA-tested population, but calibration assessment, prospective evaluation, and implementation workflow assessment are needed before clinical use.

Shippers are beginning to delegate carrier selection to large language model (LLM) agents. We ask what such delegation does to a freight matching market, and which platform design choices contain it. We carried out agent-based simulations in which fifty shipper agents, built on commercial LLMs from OpenAI (GPT), Anthropic (Claude), and Google (Gemini), procure truckload capacity for thirty days. The market implements the rules of digital freight matching: each load is offered down the shipper's ranked list of carriers (waterfall tendering), carriers have daily capacity limits, spot prices respond to congestion, and carrier ratings accumulate with transactions. We found three risks and one remedy that works. Agents converged at once: for a fixed sampled carrier population, the same carrier was the modal first choice of every model on day one, attracting up to 76% of requests. Because each agent picks from its own randomly drawn list of displayed candidates, the platform controls how many options each shipper sees; concentration rose steeply once lists exceeded about ten carriers, with the onset differing across models. Which carriers ended up dominant varied widely from one sampled market to another, and displaying true quality instead of estimated ratings changed neither the level nor this variability (by design, quality affects only what agents see, never delivery outcomes). Against these risks, disclosing each carrier's remaining daily capacity cut concentration by a third and doubled shipper surplus, while vendor diversification, list-order randomization, and popularity display showed no clearly detectable effect. Platform information design, ahead of model choice or model regulation, is the lever that works.

Large language model (LLM) agents offer a generative approach to simulating human behavior under conditions that may have few or no direct historical analogues, a common challenge in disaster and infrastructure-disruption planning. However, this generative capacity creates a validity problem: individually plausible agent reasoning may fail to reproduce empirical population behavior. We evaluate whether empirical grounding improves the statistical realism of LLM-agent simulations during disruptions. Specifically, we develop an empirically grounded LLM-agent framework that embeds demographic profiles from the American Community Survey, baseline routines from the American Time Use Survey, and urban spatial context into agent initialization, memory, decision prompts, and activity execution. An independent household survey conducted during the July 2024 Philadelphia heatwave is reserved as an external validation benchmark. Compared with an ungrounded LLM-agent baseline, the grounded model improved reconstruction of normal daily routines, increasing mean correlation with empirical activity profiles from 0.528 to 0.912 and reducing mean squared error from 0.066 to 0.008. Under heatwave conditions, the grounded model better reproduced survey-derived activity profiles, increasing mean correlation from 0.349 to 0.836 and reducing mean squared error from 0.098 to 0.012. The grounded model captured 46.4% of observed heatwave response amplitude, compared with 20.6% for the ungrounded baseline. These findings show that empirical grounding can make LLM agents more statistically credible simulators of population behavior while revealing remaining gaps in modeling human adaptation during disruptions.

Monitoring poverty and food security indicators is imperative for addressing socioeconomic challenges in developing nations. A limitation is mismatches in scale between data sources: census data provide geographic coverage, while socioeconomic indicators are derived from infrequently conducted surveys at coarse resolutions, posing a methodological challenge. This study introduces a deep learning framework, JuGAAD, using Indian census and survey data from 2001 and 2011 as a case study. We employ a three-step process: census and geospatial data are averaged into intermediate village-cluster-scale tessellations to reduce noise and regularize administrative boundary changes; an autoencoder compresses high-dimensional National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data into a low-dimensional latent representation; and a regression model maps upscaled census and geospatial data to this representation. This function is applied to fine-grained census data to generate high-resolution predictions, validated against ground-truth district-level NSSO indicators. Results confirm the methodology predicts socioeconomic indicators at fine scales with strong accuracy.

Synthetic-population tools increasingly run every individual as an independent large language model (LLM) agent. Using real survey microdata, we show that this paradigm has a basic failure mode, and we set a distribution-first corrective against it, all measured with a deterministic, construct-validated verifier on non-WEIRD (Turkey-first) data. First, N independent LLM agents grounded on 2,414 real World Values Survey respondents fail to reproduce the population's response distribution: they pile onto a modal default (four scenarios x five seeds: concentration 0.36->0.69, entropy 1.46->0.77, 85% collapse, TVD=0.44), and the collapse is a predictable function of scenario structure (r=0.55 with a single-answer structure). Second, Verbalized Sampling (VS) fixes the field's chronic under-dispersion without training in three model families (fidelity +7 to +10; significant on Qwen, p=0.002, d=6.2), yet the same move universally overshoots into over-dispersion (SD-ratio 0.4-0.56 -> 1.26-1.37), a structural property of VS. Third, survey fidelity transfers only weakly to agentic behavior: in a single-model, single-domain booking task, a persona is dominated by a cheapest-default (~80%) that income modulates but does not override (comfort choice 0%->7%->32% across income bands). Fourth, a placebo-controlled memorization attack and an election backtest show VS keeps aggregate strength while subgroup and individual claims are contaminated by recall and underdetermination. We close with the corrective: model the distribution once (VS) and assign it to grounded characters at O(1) cost, with a budget-aware router whose honest AUC is 0.805, not the tautological 1.0 of a code-derived oracle. The central contribution needs no realism claim: it measures the internal inconsistency of the independent-agent route and the conditions under which the distribution-first route calibrates.

When a language model must pick one answer from a large space of equally valid options, which does it pick -- and how often is it the same answer every other model picks? Asked to "pick a word -- any word," 44 models chose "serendipity" 41% of the time. We characterize this convergence with a deliberately minimal instrument: 31 single-turn prompts, each naming a category with many valid one-word answers ("Name a tree."), asked four times per model with no system prompt. Analysis is exact-match on normalized tokens -- no embeddings, no judge -- at about a dollar per model. That models converge is well documented; our contribution is the instrument itself -- the One-Word Census -- and what it reveals about the structure of the convergence. We score each model by answer-choice surprisal: the average $-\log2$ probability of its answers under the pooled answers of all other models, leave-one-out. Convergence is extreme -- in 7 of 31 categories one answer takes over 80% of all answers -- yet conformity varies more than fourfold across models, and the variation is structured. Persona- and community-tuned models are the most divergent; the newest mainline flagships are the most conformist, producing almost no answer no other model gave. Within four lineages (Claude, GPT, Qwen, Grok) conformity rises with each generation -- but reverses for the latest flagship Claude and GPT models, a possible early signal of repositioning at the top tier. Rankings are robust to roster composition (leave-one-family-out rho = 0.985). Against human category-production norms, the field is more concentrated than people in 18 of 20 shared categories. All prompts, transcripts, and code are public.

A common intuition holds that a region's music mirrors the temperament of its people, so that melancholic melodies mark melancholic populations. We test the measurable half of that intuition and reject the inferential half. Using the Essen Folksong Collection, a corpus of thousands of notated folk melodies, we extract real melodic and affect-related features from 2393 deduplicated melodies spanning 16 countries and 7 geographic regions, with the analysis performed on symbolic scores rather than audio. The mode of each melody is computed with a key-finding algorithm rather than read from the file, because the collection's own documentation warns its major and minor labels are unreliable. Cross-country differences in melodic structure are large and highly significant. All 8 tested features differ across countries at p<0.001, with the leap-related features reaching p<10^-90, and China carries a distinctive wide-leap, high-activity signature (arousal composite +1.24 standard deviations, mean absolute interval 2.77 semitones against Germany's 2.17). We then test the inferential half. We correlate the regional musical-affect measures with two published, validated national indices, the World Happiness Report ladder score and the Hofstede individualism index. None of the 6 correlations is significant (0 of 6). The geography of musical affect is real and measurable, but it does not predict how happy or how individualist a population is, and any claim that it does is an ecological fallacy. We release the full extraction and analysis pipeline, and a fail-closed checker re-derives every number in this paper from the data.

Embodied accounts of semantic memory highlight the role of sensorimotor systems in acquiring and storing knowledge. Congenitally blind populations offer a critical test bed for these assumptions, providing an opportunity to assess whether conceptual grounding requires visual experience. In this study, we assessed semantic memory navigation differences between blind and sighted individuals using a property listing task with concrete and abstract concepts. We computed semantic entropy, an embedding-based natural language processing metric that captures the predictability of retrieval. Generalized linear mixed models revealed distinct navigation patterns across groups: while sighted individuals showed higher entropy for abstract than concrete concepts, blind participants did not. Instead, blind individuals exhibited higher entropy for visually salient concrete concepts (e.g., penguin). These results underscore the role of visual experience in the organization and dynamic navigation of semantic memory.

We present Anamnesis, an interactive system for demographically controllable survey simulation using large language models. Open-source and designed for non-technical users/researchers, Anamnesis enables the prototyping and stress-testing of survey instruments on virtual populations rather than real human subjects. The platform operationalizes the recently introduced Anthology and Alterity frameworks, which use structured narrative backstories to condition model responses, within a unified web interface. It supports open-ended generation, probabilistic demographic resampling, and multimodal (image and audio) surveys. We evaluate the system through two case studies: (1) replicating segments of Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel (ATP) on political typology and biomedical issues and (2) emulating human preference in the New Yorker Caption Contest. In both cases, Anamnesis produces opinion distributions that more closely match real-world survey data than standard persona-prompting baselines, offering a transparent, reproducible, and open-source alternative to proprietary simulation services.

Cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are MRI markers of small vessel disease and the microbleed component of amyloid related imaging abnormalities (ARIA-H), but their small size, sparsity, and similarity to vessels, calcification-like foci, and artefacts make automated detection difficult. We propose CenSynCMB, a centre-guided and mimic-aware framework combining a 3D Attention U-Net, auxiliary centre-map supervision, false-negative-driven reweighting, and fold-wise physics-guided synthesis of positive CMBs and labelled hard negatives. Synthetic data expose the detector to compact lesions and common mimics without validation or test leakage. On VALDO Task 2, CenSynCMB achieved the best local-comparison lesion-level F1 (74.3%, p = 0.020); on external AIBL SWI, it achieved the highest local-comparison recall (88.5%, p = 0.0058) and F1 (65.0%, p = 0.0016). Together, these results support scalable CMB candidate extraction in large, unlabelled MRI cohorts, while highlighting cohort-specific calibration as the next step toward reliable burden estimation.

Generative Synthetic Populations (GSP) -- the convergence of population synthesis, agent-based modelling, and LLM agents -- are attracting growing interest for urban simulation and institutional communication research. Before any GSP instrument is used on a real population, a more basic question must be answered: does it respond to stimuli of known valence in an ordered, replicable, group-structured way? We call this controllability. We ask not whether a synthetic population tracks humans, but whether it tracks itself: whether the latent structure we impose on it is recovered in its own responses. This internal-validity question is logically prior to any claim about external validity, just as characterising an instrument's response function must precede using it to test a theory. We report SIVE (Synthetic Instrument Validation Experiment): a fictional municipality (Montelago) with 120 synthetic personas of known latent structure, exposed to seven conditions spanning strongly positive to strongly negative institutional communications about a water network. Seven pre-registered criteria, evaluated across a temperature sweep, jointly assess fidelity, stability, noise floor, specificity, sensitivity, and ordering. All seven pass at every temperature. A central finding turns a calibration failure into a diagnostic success: a message designed as "weakly positive" was identified by the instrument as functionally negative, traced to unresolved problems, uncertainty, and institutional passivity in its text; a redesigned version restored the expected ordering and interacts with agents' latent trust in unanticipated ways. A noise sub-experiment shows the instrument's intrinsic noise is roughly half the cross-agent estimate and stable across temperatures. Individual trajectories reveal coherent micro-dynamics that summary statistics obscure. Full data are available via an interactive explorer.

AI nudification uses generative models to create synthetic non-consensual sexually explicit imagery (SNEACI) of real individuals. Prior work has examined dedicated nudification platforms and model repositories, finding that most targets are female celebrities. However, the anonymous content community, where SNEACI is actively requested, generated, and exchanged, remains unexplored. In this work, we present a large-scale study of AI nudification in the wild, identifying 24,105 SNEACI items. We find a significant shift in target demographics: non-celebrity individuals now account for 55.8% of targets, compared to only 4.7% in prior studies, indicating that AI nudification has expanded from targeting public figures to increasingly harming individuals within users' own social circles. Meanwhile, open-source models dominate production, with Stable Diffusion family generating 42.7% of images and Wan generating 66.5% of videos, all driven by thousands of shared fine-tuned models and accessible tutorials. Yet the ecosystem runs on a small cohort of active producers, with the most prolific producing 780 items, drives community engagement, shapes target demographics, and disseminates technical knowledge that lowers barriers for new producers. Our work provides an empirical understanding of how AI nudification operates in the wild, revealing the mechanisms that sustain this ecosystem and highlighting the urgent need for interventions in platform governance, technical safeguards, and affected individual protection.

This study introduces a particle-based computational framework to investigate the scalability of morality and the systemic decoupling of formal law from decentralized social ethics in expanding populations. While micro-societies reinforce ethical conduct through local reciprocity, macroscale systems introduce anonymity that strains cognitive memory limitations. We model individual agents as discrete particles with finite memory capacities ($L$) and dynamically evolving, stochastic choice profiles ($μ$) regulated by non-linear social pressure switches. Monte Carlo ensemble simulations demonstrate a distinct, non-linear phase transition as the population scales ($N \to \infty$). When the population metric outpaces memory capacity ($N \gg L$), the local re-encounter probability drops as $\mathcal{O}(L/N)$. This structural dilution neutralizes decentralized peer-to-peer accountability, causing global behavioral norms to decouple from moral baselines and drift toward a minimalist legal floor. Furthermore, cyclic scale experiments expose a prominent, path-dependent hysteresis loop, mathematically formalizing the non-Markovian inertia and irreversible nature of moral decay in self-organizing social systems.

Generative AI coding agents are entering the open-source supply chain, yet their diverse and often invisible traces leave their prevalence poorly understood. We introduce a multi-layered detection framework that integrates configuration-file scanning, commit-message analysis, author-identity matching, and bot-signature lookup across World of Code (180M+ Git repositories), classifying agent traces into four behavioral types. No single method captures more than a fraction of activity: multi-method detection identifies 850,157 Claude Code commits in one snapshot, of which bot-account lookup_the signal most adoption studies rely on_recovers only 28,154 (3.3%), a 30x relative-recall gap, so single-signal prevalence estimates are biased low by at least this factor. Every detection pattern is hand-validated (495 labels) with per-cell precision and Wilson confidence intervals. Across snapshots from December 2024 to April 2026, commit-attributed agents generate over 320,000 commits per month; Claude Code leads (886,122 commits across 17,295 projects) and dominates silent, configuration-file-only adoption (21,078 projects). Compared against an independent pull-request census (AIDev), the two channels capture nearly disjoint agent populations_a PR census misses 79% of commit-detected Claude Code adopters and essentially all Codex adopters_and different kinds of work: PR-deployed cloud agents (Codex, Cursor) surface as feature work, while commit-deployed in-editor agents (Claude Code, OpenHands, Aider) surface as maintenance. The observed work profile follows deployment and detection mode rather than the tool itself, so no single channel is representative.

Existing quantum-inspired simulated bifurcation algorithms rely on dynamic scheduling methods but lack the ability to adapt effectively to different problem instances. Additionally, during the evolutionary stage, balancing exploration and exploitation remains challenging. The fundamental issue stems from the widespread use of static preset parameters and globally uniform strategies, which can diminish algorithm effectiveness and lead to result homogenization. This article proposes an Adaptive Enhanced Quantum-inspired Simulated Bifurcation (AE-QSB) framework driven by population states. By leveraging perception indicators of four distinct population states, the QSB algorithm establishes a closed-loop strategy encompassing perception, decision-making, and execution. Within this framework, we introduce three complementary algorithms spanning a spectrum from efficient extremum seeking (ME-BSB), through population-level uniform refinement (SE-DSB), to density-aware adaptive scheduling (SG-DSB). On the medium-sized graph G22, both SE-DSB and SG-DSB achieve a mean gap below 0.05%, while ME-BSB attains the optimal trade-off between runtime and solution quality with a gap of 0.26% and the shortest single-run time. We compared AE-QSB variants with other algorithms across all benchmark graphs from G1 to G81. The results demonstrate that AE-QSB achieved the lowest mean gap on 74.6% of the graphs and the highest average approximation rate on 84.5% of the graphs. Ablation experiments further revealed that subgroup exploration and rescue mechanisms play crucial roles in both multifactor and single-factor components. This study demonstrates that population statistical information during dynamic evolution provides a computable and effective foundation for adaptive control, enabling quantum-inspired optimization methods to transition from fixed scheduling to data-driven closed-loop control.

We develop an LLM-powered virtual population model that simulates demand for pricing decisions, in settings where products are described by rich unstructured information, such as text descriptions and images, and where decision makers need not only mean-demand predictions but also uncertainty estimates for counterfactual prices. Our model represents exposed customers as draws from a finite mixture of customer personas. For each persona, product, and candidate price, an LLM elicits a persona-level purchase probability using both structured persona information and unstructured product information. These probabilities are aggregated through calibrated mixture weights to form a predictive distribution of aggregate demand. The resulting simulator can evaluate counterfactual prices under various pricing objectives, including expected revenue and risk-aware criteria such as conditional value at risk. We test the framework on an online H&M fashion dataset with product descriptions and images. The calibrated LLM-based simulator achieves the best overall predictive performance among the models considered, and supports sample-efficient pricing decisions. Our framework provides a practical way to use LLMs as demand simulators for products with limited historical demand data but rich product information. By producing a full predictive demand distribution rather than only a point forecast, it enables managers to compare candidate prices, quantify demand uncertainty, and choose prices that target either average-case revenue or risk-aware objectives.

Why is the past of English "go" the apparently unrelated "went"? Such alternations are frequent in languages. They neither aid communication nor learnability, yet they can be persistent, surviving over centuries or millennia. We present a multi-agent simulation of the emergence of morphological stem and inflection alternations. Alternate forms arise by phonological changes or, as with "go/went", from lexical alternatives associated with a subset of the population. When an agent 'hears' another agent use a novel form for a slot in the paradigm of a word (say, the past tense of go), they will with some probability adopt that form, possibly spreading its use to other slots in the paradigm that shared the same original form. Thus alternative forms can spread through the population and become entrenched as stem or inflectional marker alternants. Unlike many previous computational studies, our system allows for naturalistic lexical forms, realistic phonological rules, lexicons with hundreds or thousands of entries, and agent populations in the tens or hundreds. It supports several network topologies, diffusion patterns and agent adoption policies. One issue with such simulations is evaluation: how realistic is the resulting morphology compared to those of real languages? We introduce the AI Historical Linguist, a novel Large Language Model-driven system that models a debate between two historical linguists. We use this to compare a set of real language morphologies, disguised morphologies, and experimentally evolved morphologies. The results suggest that among the factors that favor more plausible morphologies are scale-free social networks and random Bernoulli adoption of forms. We also present three case studies modeling attested historical changes, allowing us to test what might have happened if history had been different. All code and data are released.

Close-in exoplanets exhibit a wide range of orbital architectures and physical properties shaped by both formation conditions and migration processes. Although population-synthesis models predict distinct planetary populations, establishing a quantitative connection between observed exoplanets and synthetic populations remains challenging. We investigate the intrinsic organisation of close-in exoplanets using physically motivated dynamical parameters and connect the resulting populations to pebble-accretion formation pathways. A two-stage Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to an observed sample of close-in exoplanets, performing unsupervised probabilistic clustering in a feature space dominated by dynamical descriptors of planet-star interactions. The resulting clusters are mapped onto a pebble-accretion synthetic population within a statistically motivated three-dimensional parameter space. Formation-related quantities, including gas availability, gas fraction, and ice-rock mass ratio, are then used to interpret the mapped populations. We identify statistically supported sub-populations without imposing predefined classification boundaries, including very-massive gas giants, hot giants, warm-Jupiter-dominated systems, and lower-mass giants. The mapped synthetic populations reveal systematic differences in formation timing, gas accretion, and solid growth histories. In particular, very-massive gas giants are preferentially associated with earlier formation epochs than hot-giant and warm-Jupiter-dominated populations. These results demonstrate that physically motivated machine-learning approaches can provide a statistically robust framework for linking observed exoplanet populations to theoretical planet formation pathways.

Neural population activity models can recover rich temporal structure from binned spikes, but their read-in and readout layers often remain tied to a fixed set of recorded neurons. This coupling limits reuse in long-term brain-computer interfaces, where recorded neuron identities, counts, and response statistics can change across days. We introduce GRAFT, a Transformer-based neural population activity model that separates reusable temporal dynamics from a recalibratable neuron interface. The neuron interface controls how recorded neurons enter and leave the shared backbone, and auxiliary gain and positional mechanisms support neural activity modeling inside the Transformer. On MC Maze under the standard NLB'21 protocol, GRAFT reaches 0.3866 co-bps as an ensemble, setting a new state of the art on the primary co-bps metric among public and reported NLB'21 results. In a cross-day protocol constructed from the NLB'21 MC Maze dataset series, GRAFT recalibrates from MC Maze to the scaled MC Maze datasets (Large/Medium/Small) by updating only 9.21% of parameters, reaching 0.3749, 0.3112, and 0.3152 co-bps with restricted target-day support sets. These results show that the same interface-backbone separation supports both strong Transformer-based neural population activity modeling and data-efficient cross-day recalibration.

Generalization in emergent communication has largely focused on novel inputs or linguistic structures, yet the capacity for agents to communicate with strangers from strictly disjoint communities remains relatively unexplored. In this work, we formalize this capability as \textit{zero-shot mutual intelligibility (ZMI)}: successful communication between independently trained populations without prior exposure. Leveraging emergent sketching -- in which agents communicate through sets of drawn strokes -- as a visually grounded modality, we find that scaling the training population substantially improves ZMI across independent groups. Crucially, as we scale the population size, in-group communicative variation increases, preventing co-adaptation into homogeneity. Simultaneously, cross-group variation decreases, indicating a structural convergence toward a certain type of universality. Further analysis reveals that this universality is achieved through perceptual grounding: scaled populations increasingly anchor their emergent sketches on the objective visual resemblance of the target images. Together, these results position ZMI as a distinct axis of generalization in emergent communication and suggest a route toward socially interoperable artificial agents.

Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.

This paper proposes a method of creating synthetic data (SD) that will have two important advantages for the user compared to other methods currently available. The first is transparency; unlike other methods, the person in receipt of the SD will know which of the relationships between variables in the original data will be approximately maintained in the SD. The second is a guarantee that the SD is derived from information that has already been judged to be free of disclosure risk. This is achieved by first defining and calculating the margins where relationships between variables will be maintained in the SD. Each margin will then be subject to statistical disclosure control (SDC) to the standards defined by the data custodian, e.g. top-coding and bottom-coding, combination of small categories and/or modifying small counts. Further adjustment of the curated margins is advised by coarsening all counts in the table to multiples of the disclosure limit. These adjusted margins are used to create SD by the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) algorithm. The practical steps involved in creating such SD are illustrated using data from the 1901 Census of Scotland.

Earlier detection of pancreatic cancer is key to enabling wider access to curative treatment and reducing cancer deaths; however, screening is presently not viable. Latent indicators of pathology are evident in an individual's disease and blood test trajectories and may predict the development of pancreatic cancer. Longitudinal sequences of coded diagnoses and blood test values accrued by patients throughout their clinical interactions were used to train a custom Transformer-based neural network with a multi-head attention mechanism to predict risk of pancreatic cancer with a multi-year lead time and risk-stratify populations for targeted screening. The cohort comprised 6,017 adults with pancreatic cancer and 177,081 controls (overall median age 75, 45% female) with median 12 years (interquartile range 6.9-16.2) of medical history prior to pancreatic cancer diagnosis. External validation via leave-one-site-out, out-of-sample testing predicting pancreatic cancer 1-, 2-, and 3-years prior to diagnosis demonstrated mean area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.837 (95% confidence interval 0.827-0.848), 0.797 (95% confidence interval 0.782-0.813), and 0.760 (95% confidence interval 0.745-0.776), respectively. Estimated pancreatic cancer risks were well-calibrated (calibration plot slope 1.08, intercept of -0.077; Brier score 0.025), and a Bayesian population pancreatic cancer prevalence update allows estimated cancer risk outputs to be transportable across settings. At testing, a screening threshold of >3.3% risk of pancreatic cancer in 1-year offered a diagnostic odds ratio of 18.2. Our work therefore lays the foundation for a first population-level digital enrichment tool to widen access to curative-intent management of pancreatic cancer.

The Policy-Space Response Oracles (PSRO) framework scales equilibrium computation to large zero-sum games by iteratively expanding a restricted strategy set using deep reinforcement learning (DRL). A central challenge is to construct, under limited computational budgets, a small strategy population whose induced game well approximates the full game. Existing PSRO variants typically expand the population using best responses to meta-strategies computed from restricted-game payoffs, which can lead to inefficient expansions that provide limited global improvement. We propose to guide population expansion by directly evaluating the post-expansion population quality. Specifically, we adopt Population Exploitability (PE) to measure how well a restricted strategy set represents the full game, and introduce a two-phase exploration--selection framework that explicitly minimizes PE during expansion. We instantiate this framework as Global PSRO, a practical DRL-based algorithm that efficiently generates candidate responses and estimates PE via parameter-sharing conditional neural networks. Experiments across multiple two-player zero-sum games show that Global PSRO achieves lower exploitability and approximates Nash equilibria with significantly fewer policy iterations than prior PSRO methods.

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are emerging regulatory molecules implicated in chronic disease pathogenesis, including Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2D). We investigated ten literature reported lncRNAs associated with T2D: MALAT1, MEG3, MIAT, ANRIL, GAS5, KCNQ1OT1, H19, BCYRN1, XIST, and HOTAIR across two independent population-based RNA-seq cohorts. Single-omics approaches provide an incomplete view of disease biology, therefore, an integrative multi-feature framework was developed, extracting expression, secondary-structure, and sequence features for each lncRNA. Eight machine learning (ML) classifiers were evaluated under stratified k-fold, leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV), and repeated hold-out schemes to ensure robust performance estimation. SHAP analysis was applied for subject-level association interpretation. In one cohort, GAS5 and XIST expression features, along with GAS5, MEG3, and ANRIL sequence features, were found to be associated with T2D, while MALAT1 expression and KCNQ1OT1, ANRIL, and MEG3 sequence features were found to be associated in the second cohort. MEG3 was identified by SHAP as the dominant lncRNA in both cohorts. ML results were consistent with established statistical methods while additionally providing population- and subject-level disease association profiles linked to specific molecular feature types. The proposed framework advances mechanistic understanding of T2D and supports lncRNA-based precision medicine.

Traditional anomaly detection marks events when measured signals cross predefined thresholds. This captures the moment of transition but not the structural pressure that precedes it. We propose treating large behavioral populations as geometric energy landscapes whose deformation can be measured before and during major transitions. The central thesis is that structure precedes geometry: the structural organization of the population is the signal, and geometric metrics are instruments for measuring it. Applied to the Tor anonymity network across 67 consecutive daily observation windows, the dual-observer pipeline identifies a stable nine-dimensional load-bearing subspace invariant across the observation period and validates this structure by Monte Carlo simulation at 16.8 sigma above the noise floor. Primary detection gates achieve 0.0% false positive rate on 24 confirmed stable windows. Forensic analysis of the February 20, 2026 confirmed infrastructure event formally falsifies the relay-departure hypothesis, identifying connectivity degradation without topology change as a detectable network failure mode. The result is a candidate structural-monitoring framework for behavioral populations with sufficient telemetry.

Blood-based biomarkers underpin clinical diagnosis and management, yet their interpretation relies largely on fixed population reference intervals that ignore stable, intra-patient variability. As such, population-based interpretation can mask meaningful deviation from an individual's baseline, risking delayed disease detection. To remedy this, there have been increasing efforts to personalize blood biomarker interpretation using individual testing histories. However, these methods may overfit to sparse data, inflating false-positive rates and unnecessary follow-up, and can also unwittingly include unrecognized or subclinical disease. Here, we leverage nearly 2 billion longitudinal laboratory measurements from over 1.6 million individuals across North America, the Middle East, and East Asia, to show that while laboratory values are highly individual, purely personalized intervals routinely overfit, classifying up to 68% of measurements as abnormal, without corresponding associations with adverse clinical outcomes. We then introduce NORMA, a conditional transformer-based framework that generates reference intervals by conditioning on both a patient's history and population-level data about "normal" variation. NORMA-derived intervals achieve higher precision for predicting outcomes, including mortality, acute kidney injury, and chronic disease. These findings caution against over-personalization in laboratory medicine and demonstrate that anchoring individual trajectories to population-level priors outperforms either approach alone. To promote transparency, we publicly release the model, code, and an interactive user interface for accessible, individualized laboratory interpretation.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human opinions and survey responses, but their ability to reproduce population responses across cultures remains limited. Existing persona-based prompting methods typically rely on sociodemographic or personality traits, which are only indirect proxies for the values that shape human responses. We propose a value-based persona construction method that derives textual descriptors from survey responses capturing core cultural dimensions. By sampling value profiles from target populations and aggregating LLM responses across personas, we obtain population-level predictions grounded in observed value distributions. We further introduce a calibration procedure that improves response diversity while preserving estimated opinions. We show that our approach reduces prediction error across countries, with the largest improvements observed in underrepresented populations. This substantially narrows the performance gap between countries aligned with dominant LLM priors and those that are less represented in training data, while also yielding response distributions that closely match human diversity.

Point cloud learning often rests on the premise that observed samples are noisy traces of an underlying geometric object, such as a manifold embedded in a high-dimensional feature space. Yet much of this geometry is not captured directly by coordinates, pairwise distances, or learned graph neighborhoods alone. In the smooth setting, differential forms are devices to encode higher order tangency information. In this work, we introduce a new family of principled learnable geometric features for point clouds called neural point-forms (NPFs). In the absence of a natural tangency structure, we instead use Laplacian-based techniques from Diffusion Geometry to build a discrete model for comparing differential forms on point clouds via inner products. In the continuum, submanifolds of a shared ambient feature space are represented as comparison matrices, whose entries describe how pairs of feature forms interact with extrinsic tangency information. We make this intuition precise by proving the long-run consistency of comparison matrices under standard sampling, bandwidth, density, and manifold-hypothesis assumptions. This yields a compact, efficient and permutation-invariant neural layer whose output is a learned form-comparison matrix. Across synthetic and biologically relevant experiments, we show that NPFs provide a competitive, and interpretable representation, with the strongest benefits appearing when labels depend on sampling density, manifold-like structure, or response-relevant population geometry.

Closed-loop brain-computer interfaces often require both a forecast of upcoming neural population activity and a readout of the animal's behavioral state. A single Mamba forecaster, trained only on next-step spike counts at Neuropixels scale, can deliver both in one forward pass. A lightweight per-session linear head reading the model's predicted rates decodes behavior better than the same linear classifier reading the raw spike counts, under matched temporal context. We test on the Steinmetz visual-discrimination benchmark, which spans 39 sessions, roughly 27,000 neurons, and 1,994 held-out trials. Across three training seeds, Mamba's predicted rates decode mouse choice at 75.7$\pm$0.2% trial vote, roughly 2.3 times chance level, and stimulus side at 66.1$\pm$0.6%, about twice chance. Compared to a matched 500 ms-context linear decoder on the raw spike counts, Mamba wins at trial vote by 4-6 pp on response and 4-6 pp on stimulus side. A session-start calibration block of about 100-150 trials brings the readout within 1-2 pp of asymptote, and the full pipeline fits inside the 50 ms bin budget on workstation-class GPUs typical of tethered chronic Neuropixels recordings.

Neural population models, which predict the joint firing of many simultaneously recorded neurons forward in time, are typically evaluated by a single aggregate Pearson correlation $r$ between predicted and actual spike counts, a number that masks critical structure. We argue that how we evaluate spike forecasting matters as much as what we build, and introduce SpikeProphecy, the first large-scale benchmark for causal, autoregressive spike-count forecasting on real electrophysiology recordings. Our core contribution is a population metric decomposition that separates aggregate performance into temporal fidelity, spatial pattern accuracy, and magnitude-invariant alignment. The decomposition surfaces aspects of the underlying data that an aggregate scalar collapses together. We apply the protocol to 105 Neuropixels sessions (Steinmetz 2019 + IBL Repeated Site; ~89,800 neurons) with seven architecture baselines spanning four structural families: four SSMs (three diagonal and one non-diagonal), a Transformer, an LSTM, and a spiking network. The decomposition surfaces a brain-region predictability ranking that reproduces across all seven baselines and survives ANCOVA correction for firing-statistics constraints (region $ΔR^2 = 0.018$ above the firing-statistics covariates). It also exposes a sub-Poisson evaluation floor where rigorous metrics combine with genuine biophysical constraints on regular spike trains, and yields a negative result on KL-on-output-rates distillation for ANN-to-SNN transfer in this Poisson count domain.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate fluent political text at scale, raising concerns about synthetic discourse during crises and social conflict. Existing AI-text detection often focuses on sentence-level cues such as perplexity, burstiness, or token irregularities, but these signals may weaken as generative systems improve. We instead adopt a Computational Social Science perspective and ask whether synthetic political discourse behaves like an observed online population. We construct a paired corpus of 1,789,406 posts across nine crisis events: COVID-19, the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, the 2020 and 2024 U.S. elections, Dobbs/Roe v. Wade, the 2020 BLM protests, U.S. midterms, the Utah shooting, and the U.S.-Iran war. For each event, we compare observed discourse from social platforms with synthetic discourse generated for the same context. We evaluate four dimensions: emotional intensity, structural regularity, lexical-ideological framing, and cross-event dependency, using mean gaps and dispersion evidence. Across events, synthetic discourse is fluent but population-level unrealistic. It is generally more negative and less dispersed in sentiment, structurally more regular, and lexically more abstract than observed discourse. Observed discourse instead shows broader emotional variation, longer-tailed structural distributions, and more context-specific, colloquial lexical markers. These differences are event-dependent: larger for fast-moving, decentralized crises and smaller for formal or institutionally mediated events. We summarize them with a simple event-level measure, the Caricature Gap. Our findings suggest that the main limitation of synthetic political discourse is not grammar or fluency, but reduced population realism. Population-level auditing complements traditional text-detection and provides a CSS framework for evaluating the social realism of generated discourse.

Background: External validation is essential for assessing the transportability of predictive models. However, its interpretation is often confounded by differences between external and development populations. This study introduces a framework to distinguish model deficiencies from case-mix effects. Method: We propose a framework that quantifies each external patient's similarity to the development data and measures performance in subgroups with varying levels of alignment to the development distribution. We use generative models, specifically autoencoders, to estimate similarity, offering a more flexible alternative to traditional linear approaches and enabling validation without sharing the original development data. The utility of autoencoder-based similarity measure is demonstrated using synthetic data, and the framework's application is illustrated using data from the Netherlands Heart Registration (NHR) to predict mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Results: Our framework revealed substantial variation in model performance across similarity-defined subgroups, differences that remain hidden under conventional external validation yet can meaningfully alter conclusions. In several settings, conventional external validation suggested poor overall performance. However, after accounting for differences in patient characteristics, for some sub-groups, the model performance was consistent with internal validation results. Conversely, apparently acceptable overall performance could mask clinically relevant performance deficits in specific subgroups. Conclusion: The proposed framework enhances the interpretability of external validation by linking model performance to population alignment with the development data. This provides a more principled basis for deciding whether a model is transportable and to which patients it can be safely applied.

We argue that multi-agent test-time evolution is not single-agent evolution replicated N times. A single-agent learner can only evolve its own context and memory. A multi-agent system additionally evolves who collaborates, how they collaborate, and how knowledge flows across the population. These components have no single-agent counterpart and can produce phenomena such as emergent specialization. Yet prior test-time methods either confine experiences to individual agents, forfeiting cross-agent learning, or broadcast symmetrically to all agents, erasing the specialization that makes collaboration valuable. We present EVOCHAMBER, a training-free framework that instantiates test-time evolution at three levels over a coevolving agent pool. At its core is CODREAM (Collaborative Dreaming), a post-task protocol triggered on team failure or disagreement, in which agents collaboratively reflect, distill insights, and route them asymmetrically from strong to weak agents on the failed niche, preserving specialization while filling knowledge gaps. Team-level operators assemble niche-conditioned teams and select collaboration structures online. Population-level lifecycle operators fork, merge, prune, and seed agents under performance pressure. On three heterogeneous task streams with Qwen3-8B, EVOCHAMBER reaches 63.9% on competition math, 75.7% on code, and 87.1% on multi-domain reasoning, outperforming the best baseline by 32% relative on math and confirming asymmetric cross-agent transfer as the primary driver in ablation. Starting from several identically initialized agents, four to five stable niche specialists spontaneously emerge, a structural signature of multi-agent evolution that no single-agent learner can express. See our code at: https://github.com/Mercury7353/EvoChamber

Dynamic Population Games (DPGs) provide a tractable framework for modeling strategic interactions in large populations of self-interested agents, and have been successfully applied to the design of Karma economies, a class of fair non-monetary resource allocation mechanisms. Despite their appealing theoretical properties, existing computational tools for DPGs assume full knowledge of the game model and operate in a centralized fashion, limiting their applicability in realistic settings where agents have access only to their own private experience. This paper takes a step towards addressing this gap by studying model-free equilibrium learning in Karma DPGs. First, we analyze the setting in which a novel agent joins a Karma DPG already at its Stationary Nash Equilibrium (SNE) and learns a policy via Deep Q-Networks (DQN) without knowledge of the game model. Leveraging recent convergence results for DQN, we establish a suboptimality bound consisting of a DQN approximation error of order $O(1/\sqrt{N_s})$ and a mean field perturbation error of order $O(1/N)$, where $N_s$ is the replay buffer size and $N$ is the population size. Second, we consider the challenging problem of learning the SNE from scratch. We show empirically that combining deep RL with fictitious play and smoothed policy iteration allows agents to converge, in a model-free fashion, to a configuration close to the centrally computed SNE. Together, these contributions support the vision of Karma economies as practical tools for fair resource allocation.

The population dynamics of molecules, cells, and organisms are governed by a number of unknown forces. In the last decade, population dynamics have predominantly been modeled with Wasserstein gradient flows. However, since gradient flows minimize free energy, they fail to capture important dynamical properties, such as periodicity. In this work, we propose a change in perspective by considering dynamics that minimize a population-level action under a damped Wasserstein Lagrangian. By deriving the corresponding Hamiltonian equations of motion, we formalize Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics, a structured class of second-order dynamics that encompasses classical mechanics, quantum mechanics, and gradient flows. We then propose WLM as the first algorithm that learns these second-order dynamics from observed marginals, without specifying the Lagrangian. By directly learning the population mechanics, WLM can both forecast and interpolate unseen marginals, and outperforms existing gradient flow and flow matching methods across a wide range of dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to provide instructions to many agents who interact with one another. Such shared reliance couples agents who appear to act independently: they may in fact be guided by a common model. This coupling can change the prospects for cooperation among agents with misaligned incentives. We study settings in which multiple LLMs each advise a population of clients who participate in instances of an underlying game, creating strategic interaction at the level of the LLMs themselves. This induces a meta-game among the LLMs, mediated through clients. We first analyze the one-shot setting, where shared instructions can change equilibrium behavior only when an LLM may influence more than one role in the same interaction; in such cases, cooperation may emerge, and the effect of client share can be beneficial, harmful, or non-monotone, depending on the base game. Our main result concerns the repeated setting. We prove a folk theorem for LLMs: despite indirect observation and the clients' inability to identify which LLM advised their opponents, all feasible and individually rational outcomes can be sustained as $\varepsilon$-equilibria. The result does not follow from the standard folk theorem and requires new proof techniques. Together, these results show that shared LLM guidance can sustain cooperation among populations of agents even when the underlying incentives are misaligned.

The training data of large language models (LLMs) comprises a wide range of biomedical literature, reflecting data from many different patient populations. We investigate how it might be possible to recover information on correlation and causal links between patient characteristics, as a key building block for medical decision making. To avoid the pitfalls of direct elicitation, we propose an approach based on structured comparison questions, specifically patient comparison triplet questions. This is combined with a statistical model for the LLM representation that provides estimates of correlations without access to activations or model internals. Intuitively, we consider how similarity decisions of LLMs based on a first variable are affected by providing information on a second variable for one of the patients being assessed. We then induce prompt-level environment shifts to obtain correlation estimates for different subpopulations, which enables an invariant causal prediction (ICP) approach to obtain conservative candidate parent links. We demonstrate the method in two clinical domains, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and multiple sclerosis (MS). Across prompted environments, the elicited correlations are smooth, stable, and clinically interpretable, yet vary in a statistically significant way that supports downstream invariance testing, such that ICP provides a small set of candidate invariant parent links. These results show that indirect elicitation via triplet comparisons can recover meaningful association structure from LLMs and offer a cautious route from implicit correlations to causal statements that are congruent with LLM answering patterns.

Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying visual computation has long been a central challenge in neuroscience. Recent alignment based approaches have improved the accuracy of decoding visual stimuli from brain activity, yet they provide limited insight into the neural computations that give rise to these improvements. To address this gap, we propose Dual-Tower Image-Neural Alignment (DINA), an interpretable contrastive framework for analyzing population level visual computations in primary visual cortex (V1). DINA jointly trains a biologically motivated dual-tower architecture that aligns visual stimuli and corresponding V1 population responses in a shared latent space at the level of intermediate feature maps, enabling both accurate decoding and direct access to interpretable feature maps. Evaluated on large-scale two-photon calcium imaging data from mouse V1, DINA achieves accurate neural-based decoding while revealing that decoding performance is primarily supported by coarse, low-level visual structure, rather than semantic category information or fine-grained details. Further analysis reveals that alignable feature maps emerge from multiple spatially distributed image regions, capturing both shape and texture cues, and are predominantly reconstructed by sparse subsets of strongly responsive neurons and their functional interactions. Together, these results confirm that, beyond enabling accurate decoding, DINA provides a principled framework for probing the computational mechanisms underlying visual processing in V1.

Reliable subnational population estimates are essential for applications, yet remain difficult where censuses are sparse, outdated or spatially coarse. Existing population-mapping workflows rely on hand-built geospatial covariates, such as settlement extent, night-time lights, and environmental conditions, which must be assembled and harmonised across scales and geographies. Geospatial foundation models offer an alternative by learning reusable representations of place from more multifaceted and heterogeneous data sources. Here, we benchmark Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM) embeddings against the harmonised geospatial covariates for subnational population estimation in Brazil, Nigeria and the United States. Under geographically structured validation, PDFM increased predictive fit by a median of 20.1% (IQR: 10.0-33.2%, across country-model comparisons) reduction in unexplained variance, and reduced Kullback-Leibler divergence by 23.2% (9.2-26.2%). However, these gains were uneven. PDFM was most advantageous where the geospatial covariates weakly characterised settlement context, such as larger and less-developed subnational areas. Moreover, PDFM performance was scale-coupled with embeddings providing less flexible transfer across spatial aggregations than geospatial covariates. These findings showed that geospatial foundation-model representations of place can improve population estimation in data poor settings, but their benefits break down predictably under spatial scale mismatch, revealing a fundamental limitation of current geospatial AI.

We study the problem of understanding where two populations differ within a feature space, which we formalize in the concept of a differential subgroup: a subset of individuals from both populations who, despite sharing similar characteristics, exhibit exceptional differences in a target outcome. Differential subgroups reveal the regions of the feature space where population-level gaps are most pronounced and can help practitioners identify the covariate combinations that are structurally responsible for these differences, e.g.~in clinical analysis, model diagnostics, or treatment-effect studies. We introduce a general optimization objective for discovering differential subgroups and establish conditions under which the resulting subgroups admit a causal interpretation of population differences. We propose DiffSub, a gradient-based approach that discovers interpretable differential subgroups in tabular data. Across synthetic benchmarks, medical case studies, model-error analyses, and treatment-effect settings, DiffSub identifies informative subgroups that reveal where population differences arise and why.

Pakistan experienced an unusually severe flood season between June and December 2025, with cascading impacts on population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Existing operational flood products (e.g., UNOSAT) provide valuable episode-level snapshots but rarely deliver spatially and temporally continuous inundation maps at near-real-time latency within the country. We present a multi-sensor, ensemble-based remote-sensing framework for continuous flood nowcasting in Pakistan that integrates Sentinel-1 SAR, Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel (HLS L30 and S30), MODIS, and VIIRS observations on a harmonized grid in Google Earth Engine. The framework employs a tiered nowcasting ensemble that prioritizes higher-resolution sensors (Sentinel-1 and HLS) and falls back to MODIS and VIIRS when necessary, preserving daily continuity of flood extent at each sensor's native resolution. Applied to the 2025 monsoon period, the system generates near-real-time, spatially consistent inundation maps across Pakistan. As a nowcasting case study, we track the super-flood of 26 August-7 September 2025 day by day, demonstrating the framework's ability to capture the evolving flood footprint in near real time and extend beyond the temporal limits of episodic mapping products. Validation against GloFAS discharge anomalies and precipitation datasets (CHIRPS v3.0, MSWEP) shows strong agreement with observed hydrometeorological conditions. By integrating nowcast outputs with exposure layers (WorldPop, ESA WorldCover, Giga-HOTOSM), the framework enables rapid estimation of affected populations, cropland, and critical infrastructure, supporting timely disaster response and resilience planning in South Asia.

Federated learning (FL) trains a shared model from updates contributed by distributed clients, often implicitly assuming that contributing clients are representative of the target population. In practice, this representativeness assumption can fail at two distinct stages, inducing selection bias. First, eligibility rules such as device constraints, software requirements, or user consent determine which clients are ever enrolled and reachable for training, inducing \emph{enrollment bias}. Second, among enrolled clients, user and system factors such as battery state, network status, and local time determine which clients participate in each communication round, inducing \emph{participation bias}. Although existing work has largely addressed round-level participation bias, it has paid far less attention to population-level enrollment bias, which can induce a persistent mismatch between the training objective and the target-population objective. We formalize FL under a two-stage selection model and derive \textsc{FedIPW}, an inverse-probability-weighted aggregation scheme that recovers the target-population mean update under standard ignorability and positivity assumptions. Because client-level covariates are often unavailable for non-enrolled clients, we also introduce a limited-information aggregate-calibration extension that uses known target-population summaries to reweight the enrolled sample, partially correcting enrollment bias. We further provide an algorithm-agnostic optimization analysis under residual weighting error and show that incomplete selection correction can induce a non-vanishing bias floor. Finally, experiments on synthetic federated logistic regression validate the predicted objective mismatch and show that enrollment correction reduces target-population error under two-stage selection.

The Beagle framework, through GPU-based Genetic Programming, enables population dynamics previously unattainable (within practical time frames) by CPU-constrained Genetic Programming systems. This work explores how GPU-enabled population sizes impact the success of training for symbolic regression problems. Specifically, when using constant population sizes, we see benefits of using very narrow and deep searches (as narrow as 1000 individuals) for some problems, while other problems benefit from very broad and shallow searches (as broad as 10 million individuals). We also explore stepped population sizes that start with large populations and drop to small populations to balance the breadth and depth of search.

There is a growing interest in utilizing synthetic populations for a diverse range of applications. At the same time, we are witnessing a tremendous growth in artificial intelligence in all walks of life. This paper evaluates whether zero-shot large language model (LLM)-generated health survey data can serve as inputs to a conventional iterative proportional fitting (IPF) workflow for geographically explicit population synthesis. Using the 2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), we generate synthetic survey records for the U.S. states of Colorado and Mississippi with GPT-4.1 and Gemini-2.5-Pro. We use the generated data in an IPF-based synthesis pipeline and evaluate the resulting census tract-level synthetic populations against external benchmarks. Results show both LLMs capture several major state-level contrasts, indicating zero-shot generation produces geographically differentiated survey data. However, performance is strongly variable-dependent. Downstream effects in population synthesis are mixed, as IPF sometimes amplifies or reduces errors in the generated data. Spatial validation shows that LLM-based populations reproduce census tract-level patterns reasonably well, especially for variables that were more aligned with the ground truth data. Overall, the LLM-generated survey data shows promise as supplementary input, but not yet as a replacement for real survey data.

An artificial world of barriers and plains scattered with food is used to test the feasibility of using genetic algorithms to optimize hebbian neural networks to perform on problems without apriori knowledge of the problem domain. A formal L-System based genetic alphabet for neural networks, titled Lsys, and a neural network genetic modeling tool titled Wp1hgn are introduced. Lsys and Matrix neural network topology genetic encoding methods are compared across 24 experimental runs. Lsys encoding achieved a mean maximum food count of 3802 +- 197 at generation 1000 across 8 runs with varied parameters, compared to 1388 +- 610 for Matrix encoding, a 2.74x performance advantage with an 8.5-fold improvement in consistency as measured by coefficient of variation (5.2% vs 44.0%). All 8 Lsys populations successfully learned to navigate the environment, while 4 of 8 Matrix populations failed to achieve competitive performance at any point during 1000 generations. When transferred to a novel maze environment, Lsys populations demonstrated immediate robust generalization, achieving a mean maximum food count of 2455 +- 176 compared to 422 +- 212 for Matrix populations, a 5.82x advantage that exceeded the training world performance gap. A MatrixLSG control condition, in which initial populations were generated using Lsys genotypes and then evolved using Matrix operators, demonstrated that the performance advantage of Lsys encoding derives primarily from the genetic algorithm operating on the compressed symbolic Lsys alphabet throughout evolution rather than from initial population structure. Lsys encoding is shown to provide faster convergence, higher peak performance, dramatically greater reliability, and superior generalization to novel environments compared to Matrix encoding across all experimental conditions tested.