Posterior

Diffusion models excel at capturing multi-modal action distributions in robot imitation learning. However, in multi-task and long-horizon scenarios, monolithic architectures lack structural generalization capabilities, suffering from gradient conflicts between distinct semantic sub-stages. While pure data-driven Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) methods introduce labor division, they frequently trigger routing collapse, and instantiating full-scale experts causes parameter explosion and high expansion costs. To address these issues, we propose Concept-prior Routed Diffusion Experts (CoRDE), a structure-guided variational distillation framework. CoRDE extracts semantic distributions from a frozen concept encoder to guide the variational posterior responsibility via a learnable soft mapping matrix. This mechanism introduces an entropy-controlled responsibility inference process that encourages confident routing under reliable semantic predictions while preserving the stochastic diffusion term for behavioral diversity. To overcome parameter inflation, CoRDE employs a parameter-efficient expert pool using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) on a shared frozen backbone. Theoretical analysis shows that the mixture score discrepancy is bounded by responsibility-weighted local expert errors, supporting high-fidelity generation under low-rank expert adaptation. Empirical evaluations confirm that, compared to existing baselines, CoRDE systematically reduces routing collapse, forming robust, semantically aligned expert allocations while achieving superior action quality and incremental learning efficiency.

A Prior-data fitted Network learns the posterior predictive induced by its training prior; bringing this paradigm to multivariate time-series classification therefore calls for a synthetic generator that produces complete labelled datasets with temporal structure. We introduce a causal prior that synthesizes each dataset from a randomly sampled DAG over typed nodes across two modalities (tabular attributes and time series), natively producing multivariate, multi-class TSC datasets with cross-modal causal structure across channels, timesteps and labels, a regime not addressed by existing synthetic priors. To validate the prior, we finetune TabPFN v2.5 with minimal adaptations and evaluate on 75 UCR/UEA datasets within TabPFN's operating regime. Finetuning on our generator significantly outperforms both the unmodified upstream model and a tabular-only ablation of the same prior (Wilcoxon signed-rank $p=3.0\times 10^{-8}$ on ROC-AUC), isolating the contribution of the cross-modal temporal structure.

Variational inference (VI) is a powerful method for principled posterior inference for scientific inverse imaging. VI learns the posterior distribution, often with a flow-based network, which can cheaply generate posterior samples upon optimization, and can flexibly incorporate score-based or classic priors. However, its application to large-scale image reconstruction is severely hindered by the poor scalability of the flow-based networks. In this work, we introduce ShuffleFlow, a scalable VI framework to address this challenge. Our method breaks down the problem into three parts: a pixel-unshuffling-based image coordinate sampler, a neural field as feature encoder, and a conditional normalizing flow (CNF) as posterior estimator. Specifically, our framework partitions an image into a stack of sub-images with pixel-unshuffling and uses a shared CNF to model the joint distribution of the sub-image stack. We condition the CNF on the output of a neural field, which embeds feature vectors corresponding to pixel-unshuffling sample locations to capture spatial structures, and share the flow's latent variable across the channels to model their correlations. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness and efficiency on both linear and nonlinear imaging inverse problems, and show its ability to more rapidly generate a high-sample-count posterior than diffusion samplers.

Bayesian model averaging in support-indexed regression induces a posterior distribution over active predictor supports. Under predictor redundancy, posterior mass can spread across many nearly interchangeable supports, making exact-support summaries unstable or hard to interpret even when prediction is stable. We study how to report an already fitted Bayesian model averaging posterior without changing the Bayesian target. A report uses hard or soft regions of support space, and its compressed reporting law is compared with the reference posterior through an explicit density ratio. This ratio gives computable total-variation and Kullback--Leibler distortion, bounds for bounded predictive summaries, retained-mass diagnostics, and fallback-weight diagnostics. The framework covers fixed hard regions, metric-ball regions, posterior-cluster regions, and pooled-pruned region dictionaries. We prove exact error formulas and validation bounds for these region reports, and give conditions under which a few regions can replace a long list of individual supports. In simulations, our region reports often give shorter and clearer summaries while preserving the main posterior information, and the density-ratio diagnostics show when too much information has been lost.

Robots must generate trajectories that remain faithful to learned expert behavior while satisfying safety constraints and task-specific objectives specified only at inference time. We formulate constrained trajectory generation for pretrained diffusion and flow-matching policies as Bayesian posterior sampling, with the learned demonstration distribution as a prior and an inference-time, cost-derived likelihood tilting it toward feasible, optimal trajectories. To sample from this posterior without any retraining of the base policy, we leverage the Feynman--Kac corrector framework, originally formulated for diffusion models, and extend it to deterministic flow-matching policies. The result is a unified, inference-time, retraining-free sampler for diffusion and flow policies. We validate the approach on pretrained Diffusion Policy, GR00T-N1.6, and $π_{0.5}$ checkpoints across simulated and real-world manipulation tasks, including planning around non-convex obstacles introduced at inference time, and show improvements over the base $π_{0.5}$ on zero-shot tasks.

Online learning in non-stationary streams is often formulated as tracking a point estimate, but many applications require predicting the full data-generating distribution. We study online distributional prediction under drift and adversarial corruption. Our approach represents each candidate law through a latent cluster geometry: a variable-size configuration of centers that organizes probability mass and induces a predictive distribution. A Gibbs quasi-posterior over these configurations yields an online predictor by posterior averaging, and the resulting variable-dimensional posterior can be sampled with reversible-jump MCMC. The method therefore avoids specifying a parametric streaming law while retaining a structured latent space for uncertainty, regularization, and comparison. We evaluate performance by cumulative Wasserstein-1 regret against the time-varying true law. The analysis separates two effects: corruption perturbs the loss-based posterior update, whereas drift makes long-horizon posterior memory stale. We address the latter with a restarted variant that temporally localizes the same quasi-Bayesian update. The resulting high-probability bounds decompose into a PAC-Bayesian complexity term, a corruption-sensitive posterior perturbation term, and a dynamic optimal-transport term driven by $A_T^{\mathrm{OT}}=\sum_{t=2}^T W_2^2(p_{t-1}^*,p_t^*)$. Under bounded support, stable latent geometry, predictive-map regularity, oracle realizability, localized restart windows, sublinear transport action, and sublinear corruption budget, the restarted predictor achieves sublinear cumulative Wasserstein regret. These guarantees require no parametric model for the stream, drift mechanism, or corruption process.

We study the privacy of releasing functional posterior sample paths from a Gaussian process (GP) when the entire training set including covariates and responses is private. Unlike standard differential-privacy (DP) mechanisms that inject external noise, posterior sampling is intrinsically random and we show that this randomness provides useful privacy guarantees. We derive Rényi-DP guarantees separating privacy leakage through the posterior mean from a distinct channel induced by the data-dependent posterior covariance. The analysis identifies effective ridge regularisation and covariance scale as the principal privacy-controlling quantities and yields sharper guarantees in several regimes of practical interest as well as extensions to repeated and adaptive releases. Membership inference attacks confirm the predicted dependence on regularisation, covariance scale and the number of released paths. Utility experiments on downstream posterior sampling tasks identify noisy observation regimes where privacy-compatible regularisation preserves useful samples. Finally we identify large-data asymptotic regime in which the privacy parameter and posterior mean-square risk vanish simultaneously, yielding privacy for free. Together, these results provide a comprehensive characterisation of privacy and utility of GP posterior sampling.

Diffusion and flow-based models learn powerful data priors by training a denoiser to reverse Gaussian corruption. To use this prior to solve a linear inverse problem, one needs to sample from the posterior, but the score that the prior provides is the unconditional score, not the posterior score. Existing methods either steer a fixed pretrained denoiser with approximate measurement-matching corrections, or train a conditional restoration model that abandons the denoising structure of the prior. We derive the exact posterior score in closed form for linear Gaussian inverse problems under general Gaussian interpolants, and show that posterior sampling reduces to a denoising problem at an operator-dependent shifted pivot under an anisotropic noise covariance. We turn this identity into Exact Posterior Score (EPS), a denoising training objective that preserves the input/output structure of standard pretraining and can therefore be trained from scratch or fine-tuned from a pretrained denoiser. At inference, EPS uses the same sampler as the underlying backbone, with no likelihood gradients or projections. We evaluate EPS on five linear inverse problems across FFHQ and ImageNet, where it outperforms training-free and training-based baselines on fidelity, perceptual, and distributional metrics, while using roughly an order of magnitude fewer denoiser evaluations than gradient-based posterior samplers.

Enterprise behavioral simulation requires more than producing a plausible response. Many decisions depend on the shape of a population under a proposed action: which segments accept, defect, hesitate, or move into risk-sensitive states. This paper introduces Posterior Twins, a memory-grounded digital-twin approach that represents likely behavior as an updated distribution under a specific decision context. We evaluate a family of Twinning Labs behavioral-model operating points on a 226-example held-out behavioral-response benchmark and report both modal accuracy and Wasserstein-1 distance. The results show that modal accuracy and distributional fidelity identify different operating regimes. TL-Twin Alpha achieves the lowest observed Wasserstein-1 distance in the reported result set ($W_1 = 1.16$), while TL-Twin Delta and TL-Twin Gamma provide balanced operating points near the modal-accuracy frontier. The paper frames these results as a systems result: governed memory, behavioral model routing, scenario orchestration, distributional aggregation, and auditability are necessary for turning simulated behavior into reusable enterprise decision evidence.

Bayesian inference for inverse problems is run to evaluate integrals -- posterior expectations, tail probabilities, and risks -- across a stream of observations. The standard estimate averages the integrand over posterior samples, a Monte-Carlo average whose error decays only as the square root of the sample size, so accuracy demands many samples -- prohibitive when each one calls a partial-differential-equation forward model. Mean-shift interacting particles need far fewer: they return a small set of signed-weight nodes -- a deterministic quadrature whose weighted averages estimate those integrals. Finding the nodes, however, is a per-observation optimization that, in its most accurate form, reads the posterior score at every step -- returning the cost it meant to save. We introduce amortized mean-shift interacting particles, a learned map that emits the weighted nodes from an observation and a few posterior samples in a single forward pass. Training asks only for joint parameter-observation samples and a posterior to draw from -- a conditional normalizing flow, an empirical conditional, or any reference the user can sample -- and the map learns to integrate that posterior from samples alone, evaluating neither its density nor its score. Once trained, it generalizes to unseen observations and integrands at any node budget and improves on independent samples in two ways: by reweighting them, provably no worse than the equal weights of Monte-Carlo; and by moving them, which empirically lowers it further. Across closed-form, sampled, learned, and physics-based posteriors -- up to a thousand-coefficient groundwater field -- it integrates more accurately than the same number of samples at every budget, and a posterior-whitened, dimension-aware kernel removes the high-dimensional wall. The result is a Pareto improvement on Monte-Carlo integration, not a competitor to drawing more samples.

Variational inference (VI) is a core engine of modern AI, enabling scalable approximate Bayesian learning and uncertainty-aware training of large probabilistic and generative models. In this paper, we propose Structured Nonparametric Variational Inference (SN-VI), a novel framework for modeling complex dependencies among latent variables in posterior approximation, leveraging multivariate spline techniques. Unlike traditional methods that rely on the mean-field assumption, SN-VI preserves intricate latent variable dependencies, providing a flexible and accurate approximation of posteriors with arbitrary shapes. We establish rigorous theoretical guarantees, including the derivation of the lower bound for the variational objective and proof of asymptotic consistency in posterior estimation. To facilitate practical implementation, we develop an algorithm that automatically identifies dependent latent variables and their underlying dependence structure, without requiring manual specification. Simulation studies validate the effectiveness of SN-VI in approximating posterior distributions with bounded support and complex dependencies. The proposed method has been successfully applied to high-dimensional structured data, including computer vision datasets and spatial transcriptomics. In these applications, SN-VI demonstrates improved generative model performance and effectively uncovers coupled biological signals through the learned dependency structure.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have demonstrated strong scaling capacity as alternatives to autoregressive language models. However, their performance is highly sensitive to the choice of transition kernels, and poorly designed kernels can lead to issues like training instability, slow convergence, and biased sampling. In this paper, we study this sensitivity through a principled analysis of generalization error and identify three critical factors: asymptotic bias (difficulty in approximating the posterior distribution), exposure bias (error propagation during sampling), and optimization variance induced by kernel dispersion. We further compare different transition kernels: masking diffusion yields sparse and easier posterior-approximation targets, while uniform diffusion provides stronger sampling-side repair but induces harder approximation. Motivated by this trade-off, we revisit a previously overlooked variant, semantic DLM (SemDLM), where the transition kernel corrupts tokens to neighborhoods that are semantically similar. Our theory suggests that SemDLM can serve as a plausible middle ground by reducing the posterior approximation difficulty of uniform diffusion while retaining repair ability. However, we find that SemDLM suffers from a semantic basin problem, where sampling repeatedly stays within a semantic region and produces low-diversity text. To address this, we propose SemDLM+, which adds a global transition and a semantic-frequency penalty during sampling. Experiments on LM1B and OpenWebText show that SemDLM+ improves training dynamics and achieves competitive language modeling and generation quality with satisfactory diversity.

We present Simplex-Constrained Sparse Bagging (SCSB), a mathematically rigorous framework for post-training compression and probability calibration of bootstrap-based bagging ensembles. Standard bagging ensembles (such as Random Forests, Bagged SVMs, and Bagged Neural Networks) assign uniform voting power to all constituent estimators. However, this naive uniform prior ignores the varying local competence of base estimators and contributes to model overconfidence. We formulate ensemble pruning and calibration as a joint optimization problem over the probability simplex by minimizing the Out-Of-Bag (OOB) loss. To induce sparsity, we address the theoretical "L1-simplex paradox" - the mathematical reality that the L1 norm is constant on the simplex and fails to prune - by introducing a concave quadratic penalty. SCSB is model-agnostic and achieves up to 96% ensemble compression, yielding linear inference speedups and superior probability calibration (lowered Expected Calibration Error) while preserving or enhancing generalization accuracy.

While real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) are becoming increasingly popular, the security of RL systems deserve more attention and exploration. In particular, recent work has revealed that RL agents are vulnerable to backdoor attacks, where a victim agent behaves normally under standard conditions but executes malicious actions when a specific trigger is activated. Existing backdoor defenses for RL either require access to the agent's internal parameters, operate only at the model or trajectory level, or are limited to specific attack types. To ensure the security of RL agents, we propose \texttt{PolicyGuard}, a \textit{test-time step-level} backdoor defense which leverages Gaussian Process (GP) posterior variance and adapts pseudo trajectories to enable uncertainty computation for individual time step. Besides, we also provide theoretical foundations to explain the efficacy of GP posterior variance. Extensive experiments across seven RL games demonstrate that PolicyGuard achieves state-of-the-art detection performance in most cases, with average AUROC of 0.856 for perturbation-based attacks and 0.859 for adversary-agent attacks.

Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient. We study conformal Bayes under label shift from a unified perspective, identifying two complementary approaches that restore nominal target-domain coverage through importance-weighted conformal calibration but operate through independent mechanisms. \emph{Post-hoc calibration} tilts the posterior predictive toward the target domain and corrects the conformal threshold via an importance-weighted quantile, leaving the parameter posterior unchanged. \emph{In-training adaptation} tilts the parameter posterior itself to the target domain, producing a corrected predictive whose highest predictive density region serves as the highest predictive density (HPD)-based prediction set under the fitted target predictive; efficiency is model-dependent and does not imply finite-sample conditional optimality. Two controlled experiments isolate the regime-dependence of each strategy: in the low-dimensional, well-estimated regime StrategyA produces the narrowest valid intervals, while in the high-dimensional, underdetermined regime StrategyB achieves up to $43\%$ width reduction at unchanged coverage, under the stated source-sampling and label-shift assumptions.

As agentic applications increasingly route user tasks through official and third-party LLM APIs, provenance becomes an operational question: which model generated a given black-box response? We study Dynamic Black-Box LLM Provenance: identifying the source LLM from generations elicited by query-varying, non-predefined prompts rather than a fixed input set or benchmark suite. This setting is difficult because prompt semantics dominate the text, while model-specific authorship traces are weak and inconsistent at the surface level. We introduce READER (Robust Evidence-based Authorship Decoding via Extracted Representations), a lightweight provenance framework that treats a frozen proxy LLM as a reader of hidden authorship evidence. READER maps black-box outputs into proxy activation space, temporally filters token states within each response, and performs Bayesian Evidence Accumulation by summing single-response log-posterior evidence across independently sampled prompts. This avoids fragile mean-pooling of prompt-specific representations while preserving the query-wise evidence needed for calibrated confidence. On Agent500, a 50-target dataset built from agent-style prompts, READER reaches $31.0$-$42.4\%$ top-1 accuracy from a single response and $70.0$-$84.0\%$ from 50 responses, substantially outperforming sentence-encoder fingerprints. Scaling across nine proxy readers further shows that stronger LLMs expose more linearly decodable authorship structure, suggesting that authorship perception is already present in frozen LLM representations and can be converted into reliable multi-query attribution.

Accurate posterior estimation is central to scientific inference, as uncertainties determine what can be reliably learned from observational data. While Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide asymptotic convergence guarantees, they are computationally demanding in high-dimensional settings. Neural network-based generative models for entire discretized 3D fields enable fast amortized inference but often lack convergence guarantees and principled accuracy assessment. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to obtain reference posterior samples, we conduct a controlled field-level evaluation of an implicit generative model (Stochastic Interpolants) and an explicit likelihood-based model (GLOW normalizing flows). This comparison, unavailable in typical applications, enables the detection of posterior geometry failures that standard metrics cannot capture. As a case study, we consider the cosmological inverse problem of inferring cosmic initial conditions from present-day large-scale structure. To match the precision of modern cosmological data, this problem increasingly relies on complex, non-linear, and non-differentiable simulators, which are incompatible with gradient-based inference frameworks. Generative models offer a route to address these challenges, provided their inferred posteriors are reliable. In this work, we show that matching posterior means, marginal distributions, or achieving high cross-correlation does not imply correct uncertainty structure, as revealed by posterior variance fields and sample-based evaluations. Through this work, we aim to raise awareness of the challenges of uncertainty estimation in high-dimensional field-level settings, highlighting the importance of careful design and validation of neural generative approaches for scientific applications.

Standard diffusion models typically use a single time-homogeneous Gaussian terminal distribution as the reference law for generation. While this choice is analytically convenient and empirically powerful, it provides little explicit structure for data concentrated near low-dimensional manifolds, where different regions of the data distribution may correspond to distinct local geometric or semantic factors. As a result, the reverse model must recover manifold-level structure almost entirely from an unstructured terminal reference distribution. We propose PTL-Diffusion, a proof-of-concept diffusion framework whose forward noising process converges to a nonconstant periodic family of Gaussian terminal laws rather than to a single invariant law. Unlike a phase-conditioned DDPM, where phase information only enters the denoising network while the forward process remains unchanged, PTL-Diffusion embeds phase structure directly into the forward noising dynamics. The proposed construction remains close to standard denoising diffusion models: for a periodically forced Ornstein--Uhlenbeck-type forward process, we derive closed-form forward marginals, the limiting periodic Gaussian terminal family, and explicit Gaussian reverse posteriors, enabling standard noise-prediction training. We also introduce an invariant-average regularization term coupling the phase-conditioned reverse dynamics through the averaged periodic reference law. Experiments on torus and cylinder point-cloud benchmarks and the Olivetti face dataset show that PTL-Diffusion improves manifold-level distributional matching over matched DDPM baselines, reducing phase-conditioned errors, feature-space covariance errors, and nearest-neighbour manifold distances. These results suggest structured terminal reference laws as a promising direction, while motivating more expressive phase constructions and larger-scale evaluations.

Can a general-purpose large language model design molecules with the precision of a seasoned chemist? Current LLM-based frameworks answer this question with scalar feedback loops - generate, score, reject - that amount to informed trial-and-error. Here we show that replacing a single number with the full physicochemical rationale from first-principles calculations transforms the LLM from a stochastic sampler into a causal reasoner. Our system couples retrieval-augmented generation with a self-reflection module that feeds orbital energies, atomic charges, and electron densities - rather than compressed scores - back into the design loop. On HOMO-LUMO gap targets from 2.0 to 5.0 eV, this structure-property-relationship (SPR) reflection achieves a deviation as low as 0.0014 eV with a 100% success rate under the SPR+RAG configuration, consistently outperforming scalar-feedback and non-reflective baselines in median and mean deviation. The framework generalizes seamlessly to dipole-moment design, synthetic accessibility optimization, and molecular docking, and proves robust across 7 distinct LLM backbones. These results establish a new paradigm: when the model understands not only that a molecule fails, but why, iterative molecular design becomes genuinely mechanistic.

Accurate calibration of particle-based simulators is crucial for robotic earthwork simulation, but analytical calibration is challenging due to this task's highly nonlinear particle dynamics and the black-box nature of conventional simulators. Although simulation-based inference (SBI) can estimate posterior distributions over simulation parameters solely from forward simulations, applying SBI directly to high-fidelity (HF) particle simulators is often computationally prohibitive. Low-fidelity (LF) simulators with coarser particles can reduce this cost, but changes in particle size and particle count shift the parameter values needed to reproduce the same observation, producing biased LF posteriors. We propose Bridged SBI, which leverages a biased but informative LF posterior to guide HF inference. This method first uses inexpensive LF simulations to identify a coarse high-density parameter region, and then it learns a local residual bridge to transport LF posterior samples toward HF-consistent regions by correcting the LF--HF discrepancy. We analyze how sequential multi-fidelity SBI (Naive-MF) can suffer from LF-induced posterior miscoverage when it directly relies on the LF posterior without discrepancy correction. We then show that Bridged SBI is designed to alleviate this issue by explicitly modeling the LF--HF discrepancy through residual correction. Experiments on both sim-to-sim particle-parameter calibration and real-to-sim calibration with real soil observation show that Bridged SBI produces more accurate and reliable HF posteriors than HF-only SBI or the Naive-MF baseline, especially under limited HF simulation costs.

Statistical post-processing has proven to be an effective tool in improving ensemble forecast of different weather variables. Case studies show that post-processing can remedy the typically underdispersive and potentially biased behaviour of the ensemble while optimizing a proper scoring rule expressing the forecast skill. The price of these positive effects is generally a deterioration in sharpness; the width of the central prediction intervals and the uncertainty of the predictions are increasing, especially for shorter lead times. This work aims to reduce the extent of the latter phenomenon for neural network-based parametric post-processing methods by extending the network's loss function with a penalty term. We demonstrate the effect of the proposed technique for 2m temperature ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts downloaded from the EUPPBench benchmark dataset and verified against synoptic observations. Here, the predictive distribution is Gaussian, and we use the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as loss function. The case studies confirm a substantial relative decrease ($8.2\%-12.5\%$) in the width of the nominal central prediction interval compared to the width of the predictive distribution computed without the penalty term, while there is no deterioration in the mean CRPS of probabilistic forecasts and in the RMSE of the predictive mean.

Black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a methodology for posterior approximation that relies on stochastic optimization. In practice, the stochastic optimizers underpinning BBVI generally require extensive problem-specific tuning, which undermines its promise as a truly "black box" inference algorithm. However, over the past decade, many new adaptive stochastic optimization algorithms have been developed that reduce or remove entirely the need for tuning. In this work, we investigate this new collection of adaptive methods in the context of BBVI, with the goal of establishing the current state of the art in tuning-free optimization-based inference. In particular, we present a large-scale empirical evaluation of 56 stochastic gradient-based optimization algorithms applied to 1092 Bayesian inference optimization problems, involving over 550,000 individual optimization runs and 15 core-years of compute. The optimization algorithms we evaluate are chosen to represent a wide spectrum of recent approaches and the benchmark problems are chosen to span a range of difficulty, with posterior target dimension 1-10^4, condition number 1-10^8, and a range of variational families. Our results show that no single method dominates, but running a selection of 5 algorithms suffices to reliably get close to the best-possible observed performance. We thus provide a strong baseline for applications where expert tuning is not possible and for comparison when developing new stochastic optimization algorithms.

This work presents a compliance-based sensor placement method for force sensing on a sensorized prostate phantom designed for Digital Rectal Examination training. The phantom combines three internal pneumatic chambers, used as intrinsic pressure sensors, with ten surface displacement markers. A finite-element simulation dataset is generated by applying external forces at sampled surface locations, from which a compliance matrix relating force inputs to pressure and displacement responses is constructed. Based on this matrix, we propose a weighted greedy selection strategy that maximizes local force reconstructability while prioritizing the clinically relevant posterior contact region and avoiding marker placement directly within the Region of Interest. Compared with a global QR-based placement strategy, the proposed method increases the mean reconstructability score in the target region by 22.5%. These results suggest that region-aware sparse sensor placement can improve force observability in soft robotic medical phantoms while maintaining a limited and practical sensing configuration.

Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. However, in the presence of right censoring, the event time is only partially observed, rendering conventional scoring rules inapplicable in their standard form. We propose a framework for proper scoring of right-censored survival outcomes based on a simple idea: first, map the predictive distribution through the censoring mechanism, then apply the underlying proper score on the induced observed-data law. This yields localized scores for fixed censoring times and marginalized scores when the censoring time is random or only partially observed. The resulting construction recovers familiar right-censored likelihood and IPCW-type criteria within a coherent framework, while also yielding right-censored versions of the CRPS, pinball loss, Brier score, and energy score. We show that the marginalized score is proper under conditional independent censoring and strictly proper on the identifiable region. The same principle also leads to censored engression, a sample-based learning objective for multivariate right-censored survival modeling. In experiments, our scores correctly rank the oracle forecast across several censoring regimes, whereas forecast-dependent plug-in weighted scores can exhibit ranking reversals. Censored engression likewise substantially improves over naive training on censored outcomes.

Sequential decision-making problems are often modelled as a Markov decision process (MDP). We focus on the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, which is an infinite-horizon undiscounted MDP with absorbing terminal states. We develop a Bayesian framework to learn the optimal decision strategy through interactions with the decision-making task. Specifically, we learn the optimal action-value function $Q^*$, but unlike many existing Bayesian approaches, we do not rely on unrealistic modelling assumptions and ad-hoc approximations. Our approach is to directly construct the posterior beliefs for $Q^*$ through Bellman's optimality equations. For deterministic rewards, we characterise the posterior as a distribution with a manifold density. To facilitate simpler inference, we relax the likelihood so that a Lebesgue density exists. The flip side is to create unidentifiability issues. Specifically, the relaxed posterior can have significant mass on improper decision rules, while the exact posterior will not. We also calculate the exact posterior probabilities for optimal action selections for the tabular parametrisation of $Q^*$, a Gaussian likelihood relaxation and a Gaussian prior, which is useful in benchmarking studies. Numerical studies on variants of the Deep Sea benchmark verify our findings. We demonstrate that our framework faithfully quantifies uncertainty and, compared to other temporal-difference-based Bayesian methodologies, is more data efficient. We conclude with recommendations for future work.

Generative models -- diffusion and flow matching -- are increasingly used to solve partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems, enforcing the governing physics as a \emph{hard constraint} (via projection or guidance) and reporting the resulting samples as a Bayesian posterior with calibrated uncertainty. We show that this widely adopted recipe samples the wrong distribution. Conditioning a generative prior on a hard PDE constraint is conditioning on a measure-zero manifold -- an operation that is intrinsically ambiguous (the Borel--Kolmogorov paradox) and whose physically correct resolution, the small-residual-noise limit, carries a co-area (Fixman) Jacobian factor $[det(JJ^{\top})]^{-1/2}$ that projection- and guidance-based methods silently omit. We make the bias precise, show that it grows with the heterogeneity of the constraint sensitivity, and validate it on controlled problems against an \emph{i.i.d.} ground-truth arbiter. The omitted factor is not a second-order detail: removing it inflates the posterior error to $20\times$ the sampling-noise floor; minimal-displacement projection (as in PCFM) is biased at $9\times$ the floor; and a naive scalar reweighting does not fix it. We introduce \textbf{CoCoS}, a measure-aware constrained sampler that targets the correct co-area posterior, and show that it matches the gold-standard posterior to within sampling noise. Our results imply that satisfying the physics'' is not the same as sampling the posterior,'' and give a principled correction for uncertainty-aware scientific inference.

Concepts of calibration formalize the compatibility between probabilistic predictions and the respective outcomes. In a nutshell, the outcomes ought to be indistinguishable from random draws from the predictive distributions. In this paper, we review, extend, and bridge notions of calibration that have been proposed for classification and regression tasks. Particular emphasis is given to hierarchical relations between the various notions, as they apply to general real-valued data, continuous outcomes, count data, nominal classes, and binary outcomes. To highlight a number of contributions, we introduce the notion of modal calibration for nominal outcomes, we distinguish full, partial, and average calibration in this setting, and we show that double probability integral transform (PIT) calibration is logically independent of previously proposed concepts of calibration for discrete outcomes. Furthermore, we generalize extant results on concepts of calibration that are expressed in terms of properties or functionals of the predictive distributions, such as means, quantiles, or event probabilities. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the concepts and their hierarchical relations in worked examples, and we provide algorithmic tools that support the construction of instructive examples and counterexamples.

Low-rank tensor decomposition (TD) is usually effective on clean, fully observed data, but it often degrades under severe missingness or noise. Low-rankness is itself a useful but limited structural prior, and additional handcrafted priors (e.g., sparsity or smoothness) still fall short of capturing the rich statistics of real-world data. To compensate for this weak inductive bias under heavy corruption, one would like to inject a learned, data-driven prior; however, the state-of-the-art diffusion models are not readily compatible with current TD and tractable posterior inference. To address these challenges, we introduce DiffBCP, a hybrid-prior Bayesian CP decomposition framework that couples a cumulative shrinkage process prior over the CP factors for automatic rank selection with an off-the-shelf pre-trained diffusion model as an implicit data prior on the reconstructed tensor. To make posterior inference tractable despite the coupling among the likelihood, low-rank constraint, and diffusion prior, we develop a split Gibbs sampler: CP factors admit conjugate updates, while the diffusion block is sampled via low-rank-guided denoising. A noise-adaptive coupling schedule further reduces sensitivity to hand-tuned annealing. Experiments on image inpainting and denoising, including high-resolution out-of-distribution images, show consistent gains over Bayesian, nonlinear, and plug-and-play TD baselines.

Causal language models factorize sequence probabilities using only preceding context, leaving future information unexploited during training despite its availability in the training data. This paper introduces Regret Pre-training, a self-supervised framework grounded in the Learning Using Privileged Information (LUPI) paradigm. The framework employs a dual-view architecture in which a single model generates both a causal Student distribution and a future-conditioned Teacher distribution. The training objective augments standard language modeling with a regret loss that minimizes the KL divergence from teacher to student, transferring future-aware signals to the causal representations. We investigate two teacher configurations on the OLMoE-1B-7B architecture:LocalRegret, which extends attention by one future token, andGlobalRegret, which conditions on bidirectional context with the target position masked. Experiments on nine downstream tasks following 4 billion tokens of training demonstrate that both configurations consistently outperform the baseline. On average,GlobalRegret andLocalRegret achieve 33.9% and 32.2% accuracy respectively, surpassing the baseline's 30.2%. Most notably,GlobalRegret improves BoolQ performance by 18.1 percentage points (61.0% vs 42.9%). The framework introduces no additional parameters and requires only one extra inference-mode forward pass per training step.

Despite the remarkable fidelity of generative models, they frequently suffer from mode collapse. Existing strategies for enhancing diversity predominantly focus on intervening during the generation trajectory. We identify a critical oversight that the standard Gaussian initialization often causes trajectories to collapse into dominant modes because it is agnostic to the guidance potential landscape. In this work, we formulate selecting the initial noise from a guidance potential posterior, which effectively re-weights the prior towards diversity-rich regions. To sample from this distribution efficiently, we introduce Diversity-inducing Initialization (DivIn), which leverages Langevin dynamics to actively navigate the initialization landscape, steering initial noise away from collapsing regions while anchoring them to the valid data manifold. Our method serves as an inference-time diversity enhancement compatible with both diffusion and flow matching models. Extensive experiments show that DivIn exhibits a superior performance in both class-to-image and text-to-image scenarios. Furthermore, we highlight that as DivIn is orthogonal to trajectory-based methods, combining them significantly expands the diversity-quality Pareto frontier beyond what either achieves in isolation.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies from pre-collected datasets. A bottleneck of this paradigm is managing epistemic uncertainty, which arises from limited data coverage (sample-level) and the ambiguity in identifying transition dynamics from finite data (model-level). To provide a unified quantification of these uncertainties, Bayesian RL has been proposed by treating the dynamics model as a random variable and maintaining a corresponding belief. Despite its theoretical appeal, policy optimization in Bayesian RL remains computationally challenging as it requires solving composite objectives with expectations. Prior methods either employ search-based techniques with poor computational scalability or impose restrictive posterior assumptions that sacrifice the adaptability of Bayesian RL. To address these limitations, we propose Posterior Hybrid Bayesian Belief (PhyB), which reformulates the expectation as a convex combination over a subset of dynamics models. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the objective discrepancy induced by this approximation remains bounded. Based on PhyB, we develop an iterative regularized policy optimization algorithm that provides metric-agnostic guarantees for monotonic improvement until convergence. Empirical results demonstrate that PhyB achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmarks.

Diffusion models have excellent capacity to model complex distributions of natural data, which has made them a popular and effective choice for posterior sampling in imaging inverse problems. Existing methods can incorporate any measurement model at inference time but must use an inexact approximation for the likelihood at intermediate timesteps for computational tractability. Although these approximations can often work well empirically, their downstream effect on the sampled posterior is poorly understood and can result in unexplained failures. To understand when, why, and how these likelihood approximations propagate to erroneous posterior distributions, we introduce a finite-sample perspective on posterior sampling that approximates the posterior to arbitrary precision as training set size tends towards infinity, for any forward model and prior distribution. Using this finite-sample lens, we observe that popular posterior sampling approximations tend to under- or over-estimate the spread of the posterior at intermediate timesteps, causing downstream consequences including sensitivity to early stopping time, inaccurate relative weighting of posterior modes, and hallucination, both of prior modes that are not in the posterior and likelihood modes that are not supported by the prior. Moreover, we find that the cause of these posterior errors requires neither a nonlinear measurement model nor a multimodal posterior, but can arise solely due to a multimodal prior and inaccurate posterior spread at intermediate sampling times. Our finite-sample posterior sampling approach is agnostic to the type of likelihood approximation and the type of (linear or nonlinear) forward model, and can thus serve as a drop-in diagnostic to evaluate the accuracy and failure modes of existing and future posterior samplers.

Over the past decades, numerous Image Quality Assessment (IQA) models have emerged, aiming to predict the perceptual quality of images. However, individual models are often biased toward certain types of image content or distortions, depending on the design principle and process. An intuitive idea is to harness the strengths and mitigate the weaknesses of each IQA model, by fusing the scores of multiple models into a stronger one. Here we make one of the first attempts to seek an optimal solution for the idea and propose a general framework for unsupervised IQA score fusion using deep Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimation. The proposed model conducts fine-grained uncertainty estimation at the score level to increase the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty in fused predictions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model over individual IQA models and other fusion methods. It also exhibits an interesting capability of rejecting ``bad" models in the fusion process.

Always-on edge systems must keep learning as conditions change under tight compute budgets and must detect unreliable predictions. Bayesian binary neural networks are attractive in this setting, but mean-field Bernoulli posteriors can saturate on long non-stationary streams, wiping out epistemic uncertainty and freezing plasticity. We propose BiMU, derived from a bounded-memory variational objective that balances stability, plasticity, and forgetting. BiMU combines a data term with controlled relaxation toward the prior and an uncertainty-dependent step size that prevents saturation and sustains informative uncertainty. This non-degenerate posterior enables fully online, buffer-free active querying via Monte Carlo disagreement, reducing label queries and backpropagation updates under imbalance. BiMU sustains learning and strong OOD detection on 1000-tasks Permuted-MNIST, and on OpenLORIS-Object achieves up to 32$\times$ label/update savings at matched accuracy under class imbalance and feature compression.

We study minimal attention-only transformers under all-token corruption and show they admit a two-stage empirical Bayes interpretation. A single attention step computes a kernel-weighted posterior mean with respect to the empirical distribution defined by the context. Depth refines this distribution through particle dynamics (Stage 1), while a long-range skip-connection carries the noisy input as a query for posterior inference (Stage 2), revealing distinct statistical roles for depth and attention residuals. The framework isolates a minimal setting in which the context itself induces a depth-dependent energy landscape governing in-context inference. We show that effective denoising can emerge without an explicit noise schedule: a fixed kernel bandwidth and finite integration horizon suffice, yielding a principled depth-noise relationship. We further establish a posterior-mean recovery guarantee for a class of well-behaved priors, where the empirical estimator converges to the Bayes-optimal predictor under asymptotic conditions. Connecting these dynamics to reverse-diffusion limits, our results provide a statistical interpretation of attention as in-context inference via sample-based posterior estimation, without explicit density modeling.

Low-channel wearable electroencephalography (EEG) is attractive for long-term monitoring, but four frontal electrodes provide only a sparse and spatially biased sampling of the scalp potential field. Virtual-channel methods should therefore be framed not as recovery of independent unmeasured brain activity, but as prior-guided conditional inference of posterior predictive scalp-potential representations at target electrode locations. We present FAVC-Net, a compact frequency-calibrated virtual-channel inference network that estimates 13 target channels from Fp1, Fp2, F7, and F8. The model combines shared multi-scale source encoding, source-state embeddings, target-conditioned signed source-block mixing, GATv2-based attention refinement, attention-consistent skip fusion, and weak Welch power spectral density calibration. The generator is trained as a task-agnostic reconstruction module, without class-label, classification, or CSP-like discriminative constraints, so that the virtual montage remains tied to conditional scalp-potential estimation rather than to a specific downstream decision. On the PRED+CT dataset, FAVC-Net achieved the best joint waveform-spectral operating point among neural and interpolation baselines. Its time-domain gains were modest, whereas log-spectral distance and PSD KL divergence were reduced by 30.50% and 38.94% relative to the strongest non-FAVC comparator. Under wearable-like source perturbations, the model preserved spectral fidelity and channel-frequency texture, with anti-collapse benefits most evident under EMG-like bursts and mixed stress. These results support virtual EEG channels as montage-compatible, frequency-calibrated posterior predictive representations derived from sparse frontal measurements, not as independent substitutes for physically recorded electrodes.

Simulation-based inference with neural posterior estimation (NPE) often yields overconfident and unreliable posteriors under limited simulation budgets. To address this, we propose DRO-NPE, a distributionally robust approach that replaces the standard NPE objective with a worst-case loss over a Wasserstein ambiguity set. We introduce KL-based metrics for miscoverage and miscalibration, and use these to show that the DRO-NPE objective controls overfitting and reduces posterior overconfidence. Our method is tractable, parallelisable, and readily integrates with standard normalising flows. Across benchmark SBI tasks, DRO-NPE consistently improves coverage and calibration, while narrowing the gap between empirical and population NPE loss, leading to more reliable inference in low-simulation regimes.

Standard transformer architectures apply a single attention mechanism uniformly across all tokens and sequence positions, irrespective of local context or computational budget. We propose Meta-Attention, a framework that dynamically routes each token to the most appropriate attention strategy -- full softmax attention, linear (kernel) attention, or sliding-window local attention -- via a Bayesian Meta-Controller. Unlike prior routing approaches that use deterministic or prior-free learned routing, the Meta-Controller treats per-token mechanism selection as posterior inference under a compute-aware Dirichlet prior: routing weights are the output of an amortised variational posterior q(alpha | x_t; phi) trained with an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) objective that jointly encodes task performance and attention-mechanism cost. This design produces principled routing uncertainty estimates that govern the soft-to-hard routing transition, mitigates routing collapse without ad hoc load-balancing losses, and yields better compute-performance trade-offs than deterministic or prior-free learned routing at negligible overhead. Phase 1 empirical results on a Tiny LM benchmark confirm core predictions: the Bayesian controller's learned routing distribution implies a projected normalised FLOP cost of 25.1% under hard routing, vs. 59.3% for the prior-free baseline (-34.2 pp), and reduces routing entropy from 55.8% to 43.3% (-12.5 pp), demonstrating that the Dirichlet prior prevents routing collapse while the non-Bayesian model defaults to full attention. We present the Bayesian architecture, ELBO training objective, and a Phase 1 PyTorch prototype validating forward-pass correctness, posterior diversity, and a controlled ablation against a prior-free baseline. Code available at: https://github.com/KFEAL/meta-attention

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently emerged as a powerful approach for Bayesian prediction tasks, approximating the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) through in-context learning. Despite their strong empirical performance and ability to go beyond point predictions, theoretical understandings of the algorithmic capability of transformers to learn distributions in context are still lacking. Focusing on Gaussian process regression problems, we show by construction that transformers can implement a gradient descent algorithm targeting the posterior predictive mean and variance, followed by nonlinear mappings that yield binned probabilities of PPD. We study the error bounds of the approximated PPD in terms of attention depth and bin resolution. Based on these results, we further demonstrate the key role of normalization and the choice of attention depth in enabling the extrapolation abilities of transformers beyond the pretraining sample size range. We conduct simulations that corroborate our findings, providing insight into the expressivity of PFNs targeting PPDs and how architectural choices may influence generalization capabilities.

Amortized inference promises fast test-time Bayesian inference, but existing methods are inherently tied to fixed models. Extending amortization to unseen models typically requires retraining or costly test-time finetuning. In this paper, we ask: is it possible to build a single inference network capable of generalizing across varying priors, likelihoods, and dimensionality? We introduce Amortized Factor Inference Networks (AFINs), a family of encode-merge-decode inference networks built on dimension-independent modules that map a model specification and its observations to the parameters of a variational posterior. Experimentally, a single trained AFIN achieves posterior accuracy comparable to NUTS and several variational inference methods, while requiring 2 to 4 orders of magnitude less test-time compute. Code is available at https://github.com/joohwanko/AFINs.

Gaussian processes with stationary kernels on bounded domains exhibit inflated posterior variance near the boundary. Despite being a long-recognized artifact in geostatistics and a source of over-exploration in Bayesian optimization, the causes and effects of boundary-induced acquisition bias are underexplored. We trace the root cause to a simple geometric mechanism: the truncation of the kernel correlation neighborhood at the domain boundary creates an observation-independent distortion that worsens with dimensionality. We show how this distortion manifests across three acquisition classes: variance maximization concentrates selections at the corners, whereas negative integrated posterior variance and expected predictive information gain move selections inward to axis-aligned interior shells. These patterns arise without reference to any objective function, meaning that acquisition behavior can be dominated by kernel geometry rather than the desired task-specific uncertainty. To quantify this, we introduce a function-free selection-profile diagnostic for arbitrary acquisitions, kernels, and bounded-domain geometries.

As large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems scale to handle increasingly complex tasks, balancing structural stability and dynamic adaptability becomes increasingly challenging. Existing systems typically adopt either structure-centric methods, committing to structures determined upfront that limit fine-grained control, or orchestration-centric methods, adapting decisions dynamically while leaving coordination structure implicit and unstable. To address this challenge, we revisit multi-agent coordination from a probabilistic perspective, casting it as posterior inference over the joint distribution of structure and orchestration. We introduce MACA, an automated coordination framework that learns a task- and budget-conditioned structural prior over agent participation and interactions. This prior guides a policy-based orchestration as an approximation to posterior inference, enabling efficient solutions with fine-grained control. Across benchmarks, MACA outperforms adaptive multi-agent baselines by an average of 8.42% while using 43.19% fewer tokens. Further investigation reveals that joint adaptation of structure and orchestration suppresses redundant interactions, converging coordination toward task-effective execution.

The neural-network denoising functions which form the backbone of image diffusion models are remarkably consistent in their generalization behaviour across a wide variety of network architectures and training procedure hyperparameters. A recent line of research has sought to model the outputs of these networks by aggregating posterior weighted averages of training dataset patches. In this work, we consolidate these approaches into a unified model class which we call Filtered Posterior Mean Collections (FPMCs). We define this model class using query precision vectors, response weights, and source distributions, and illustrate that existing methods are recoverable with specific choices of these design axes. Investigating each axis in turn, we find that FPMC performance can be improved with soft relaxations of prior patch-based methods, and through augmentations of source distributions. Applying these findings to an existing FPMC, we demonstrate consistent sample improvement across three natural image datasets.

Approximate inference over inducing variables is the central computational bottleneck of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Existing methods either fit an explicit density $q_φ(\bU)$ by an ELBO (DSVI, IPVI, DDVI, DBVI) or sample by MCMC (SGHMC). We instead frame DGP inference as \emph{posterior transport}: learn a deterministic sampler that maps a tractable reference measure to posterior-relevant inducing variables, regularised by a path prior derived from the Doob-bridged reference diffusion. Our realisation, \textbf{OM-Path} (formally FBVI-bridge-Path), uses Song's probability-flow ODE applied to DBVI's Doob-bridged forward SDE; the reference drift is closed-form from the bridge marginal coefficients (no score matching) and the path regulariser is the \textbf{Onsager--Machlup action}. At the finite-$ε$ value used at training, the objective is the negative log unnormalised density of a tempered Doob-bridge path posterior, and Theorem 1 identifies it with the same posterior's small-noise MAP path via the Freidlin--Wentzell LDP. Two strict path-space ELBO variants on the same bridge backbone (FFJORD log-det; OM-regularised CNF) are derived as ablations. Under a matched-seed paired Wilcoxon test against DBVI on seven UCI regression benchmarks, OM-Path delivers statistically significant wins on the two largest datasets (\textit{power}: $p\!=\!0.014$, NLL $\mathbf{0.012}$ matching the DSVI baseline of $0.017$; \textit{protein}: $p\!=\!0.002$, RMSE $\mathbf{0.716}$ vs.\ $0.764$, NLL $\mathbf{1.086}$ vs.\ $1.149$), statistical ties on \textit{yacht} / \textit{qsar}, and concedes \textit{boston} / \textit{energy} / \textit{concrete} to DBVI on small-$N$ noisy data. The strict-ELBO variants do not clear DBVI on any UCI metric: in this regime, reducing the variance of the path objective dominates exact-density tracking.

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack flexibility, whereas deep generative models struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies without extensive data and computation. We introduce Parametric Prior Mapping (PPM), a framework that injects parametric structural priors into a generative modeling process. Specifically, PPM utilizes a parametric estimator to derive a dynamic, adaptive prior that guides the learning of a complex predictive distribution via a learnable mapping. This design allows the model to retain the efficiency of parametric methods while exploiting the expressive power of generative models. Trained with a hybrid objective, PPM yields precise forecasts with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Empirical results show that PPM outperforms existing baselines in handling non-stationary data, offering a superior trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/ljl8336/PPM.

Evaluation in scientific reconstruction is dominated by pointwise metrics - RMSE, MAE, per-event resolution - under the implicit assumption that lower error means better reconstruction. We show that this assumption fails structurally for inverse problems with multimodal posteriors. By the law of total variance, point estimators trained to minimize MSE or MAE produce a marginal spectrum strictly narrower than the truth whenever the posterior has nonzero width. The resulting bias is independent of architecture, training, and dataset size, and it compresses precisely the spectral features - tails, modes, shapes - that downstream scientific measurements rely on. We propose a three-part evaluation protocol where each step targets a failure mode the others miss: per-event distributional accuracy via CRPS, population-level marginal accuracy via a spectrum-fidelity diagnostic, and uncertainty trustworthiness via coverage-based calibration. On a synthetic benchmark with an analytic posterior and on a realistic many-to-one inverse problem from particle physics, model rankings reverse between pointwise and distributional metrics, and calibration further separates architectures indistinguishable under CRPS. The evaluation protocol, not the model, determines the scientific conclusion.

Accurate wind power forecasting requires reliable uncertainty quantification, yet most existing methods report a single predictive uncertainty that conflates epistemic and aleatoric sources. This paper applies the law of total variance to the joint setting of heteroscedastic neural network regression and Bayesian posterior approximation, deriving an explicit decomposition of total uncertainty (TU) into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The resulting estimators are compatible with standard posterior-approximation methods and with $β$-NLL training to regulate the mean--variance learning trade-off. A wind power--specific evaluation framework is proposed to validate disentanglement without access to ground-truth uncertainty labels, comprising three modules: controlled synthetic experiments to verify responses to heteroscedastic noise and distribution shift; data-property--driven validation on a real-world wind turbine SCADA dataset; and dataset-size scaling experiments to examine the predicted asymptotic behavior of EU. Across synthetic and real-world experiments, the decomposed AU and EU components respond in theoretically consistent directions to noise structure, distributional shift, and training-scale variation, supporting the theoretical consistency and operational utility of the proposed decomposition and evaluation protocol.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is highly susceptible to patient motion due to its relatively long acquisition times and the fact that data are acquired sequentially in k-space. Even small patient movements introduce phase inconsistencies across measurements, leading to severe artifacts such as blurring, ghosting, and geometric distortions that can compromise diagnostic quality. Retrospective motion compensation remains challenging, particularly in accelerated acquisitions, due to the ill-posed nature of the joint reconstruction and motion estimation problem. In this work, we propose a unified Bayesian framework for motion-compensated 3D MRI that jointly estimates the anatomical image, rigid-body motion parameters, and coil sensitivity maps directly from motion-corrupted k-space data. Our approach integrates pretrained 3D complex-valued score-based diffusion models as expressive anatomical image priors within a physics-based forward model. Inference is performed by alternating diffusion posterior image updates with efficient proximal optimization steps for motion and coil sensitivity estimation, enabling fully unsupervised reconstruction without the need for paired motion-free training data. Experiments on simulated and real-motion brain MRI datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves improved image quality and motion robustness compared to state-of-the-art classical and learning-based motion correction techniques, particularly in the presence of severe motion and high acceleration.

The practical adoption of sampling-based inference (SAI) in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) remains limited, partly due to persistent misconceptions about the feasibility and efficiency of sampling. This position paper argues that SAI has achieved computational parity with optimization-based methods and is at the verge of superseding such methods for effective and efficient inference in BNNs. This development should be in the interest of the whole community, promoting BNNs as a principled paradigm with its long-standing yet unfulfilled promise of providing principled uncertainty quantification for neural networks. SAI can even do more -- yielding superior prediction performance through model averaging, serving as the foundation for a plethora of possible downstream tasks, and providing crucial insights into the landscape of BNNs. In order to make such a change happen and unfold the potential of sampling, overcoming current misconceptions is a necessary first step. The next step is to realign research efforts toward addressing remaining challenges in SAI. In particular, the community must focus on two core problems: sufficient exploration of the posterior landscape and high-fidelity distillation of posterior samples for efficient downstream inference. By addressing conceptual and practical obstacles, we can unlock the full potential of SAI and establish it as a central tool in Bayesian deep learning.

Suppose a planner has a pre-trained simulator of a sequential decision problem and the option to run real experiments in the field. The simulator is cheap to query but inherits confounding and drift from its calibration data. Experimentation is unbiased but consumes one real unit per trial. We study when, and how, the planner should supplement the simulator with experiments. We give three results. First, an extended simulation lemma decomposes the simulator's value error into a calibration--deployment shift that randomization can identify and a parametric residual that no further interaction can reduce. Second, the value gap between the simulator-optimal policy and the optimum splits into a local component, on states the deployed policy already visits, and a reachability component, on states it does not. The reachability component stays bounded away from zero at any horizon under purely passive learning. Third, we propose Fisher-SEP, a simulation-aided experimental policy (SEP) that minimizes the posterior predictive variance of a target policy's value, with reward-only and transition-only specializations. Two case studies illustrate the regimes. In a vending-machine supply chain, front-loaded experimentation overtakes posterior updating once the horizon is long enough to amortize the pilot. In an HIV mobile-testing example with a corridor that separates a well-surveilled region from a poorly-surveilled one, only designed exploration reaches the poorly-surveilled region.

Compositional score-based approaches to simulation-based inference (SBI) approximate the posterior over a shared parameter given $n$ independent observations by aggregating individually learned posterior scores: currently, there are two main propositions of such methods (Geffner et al. (2023), Linhart et al. (2026)). As the resulting composite score does not correspond to the score of any distribution along the forward diffusion path of the true multi-observation posterior, sampling from it via a reverse SDE leads to an irreducible bias. Annealed Langevin dynamics provides a principled alternative: it treats the composite score as the genuine score of a sequence of tractable bridging densities and samples from them in succession. When properly tuned, it could lead to a controllable bias. However, its hyperparameters, namely step sizes, the number of steps per level, and the number of annealing levels, have so far been chosen empirically. We derive Wasserstein bounds for annealed Langevin with approximate scores and translate them into explicit decision rules for these hyperparameters that guarantee a prescribed sampling accuracy, while highlighting different theoretical aspects of each composite score formulation. In the Gaussian setting, we obtain closed-form expressions for all relevant quantities and prove that the bridging densities of Linhart et al. (2026) consistently admit larger step sizes and require fewer total Langevin steps than those of Geffner et al. (2023). Furthermore, we show empirically that the tuning obtained in the Gaussian setting generalizes to more complex problems, thus providing a well-understood and theoretically grounded starting point for practitioners using compositional score-based approaches.

We study a stochastic bandit algorithm motivated by retry-aware objectives that value the best outcome among multiple attempts, such as pass@$k$ and max@$k$. Given a posterior over arm values, ReMax chooses a sampling distribution that maximizes the posterior expected maximum reward over $M$ virtual draws. Although this objective was introduced in reinforcement learning as an exploration mechanism under uncertainty, its regret properties in bandit problems have remained unclear. For Gaussian rewards and the first nontrivial case $M=2$, we characterize the optimal ReMax distribution through an expected-improvement balance condition and prove the first sublinear regret bound for ReMax. Our analysis separates the usual saturation behavior of suboptimal arms from a ReMax-specific underestimation effect, in which the optimal arm may be sampled too rarely after an unfavorable estimate. This explains why ReMax can be more exploitative than Thompson sampling (TS) and why its regret analysis is technically delicate. Experiments support this picture: ReMax often outperforms KL-UCB and Thompson sampling under mild underestimation, while posterior-variance scaling empirically mitigates severe underestimation.

Large language models can predict real-valued quantities from heterogeneous inputs such as text, code, and molecular strings, but most training objectives score each decoded floating-point number independently, improving point estimates without ensuring calibrated predictive distributions. This limits applications requiring candidate ranking or uncertainty estimation. We introduce Distribution-Aware Reward, an on-policy reinforcement learning objective whose main contribution is to train language models to produce better predictive distributions for regression tasks, rather than only optimizing individual decoded outputs against scalar targets. Our method treats multiple decoded samples as an empirical predictive distribution, evaluates it with the Continuous Ranked Probability Score, and assigns leave-one-out credit based on each rollout's marginal contribution to distribution quality, rewarding predictions that are both accurate and appropriately dispersed. We evaluate our method on a controlled Gaussian-mixture task, code performance prediction, and molecular property prediction from SMILES strings. Across tasks, our method improves over supervised fine-tuning and pointwise reinforcement learning baselines, with strong rank-correlation gains, including a 6-point Spearman improvement on KBSS. On MoleculeNet, it uses only SMILES strings yet remains competitive with strong graph-based and 3D molecular models. Further analyses show that our method mitigates rollout diversity collapse and improves uncertainty diagnostics, suggesting that directly optimizing predictive distributions makes language model regression more robust and better calibrated.

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing out the latent variables. For LGMs with a non-Gaussian likelihood, exact marginalization is not possible and a popular approach is to do approximate marginalization with an integrated Laplace approximation (ILA). Using ILA produces an approximate posterior which, in some settings, can differ significantly from the correct posterior, which impacts downstream applications. We propose an importance sampling scheme to correct the error introduced by ILA. By increasing the number of samples in importance sampling, the posterior with ILA converges to the correct posterior. This idea is realized with various techniques, including pseudo-marginalization, quasi-Monte Carlo and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo. We implement our methods in an automatic differentiation framework to support gradient-based algorithms when doing inference on the hyperparameters. For the latter, we specifically consider the use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the benefits of reduced error in various applied models.

Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions are commonly used in Bayesian optimization (BO) to guide the selection of evaluation points for expensive objective functions. The choice of kernel and hyperparameters has a strong influence on the exploration--exploitation trade-off. For minimization, sampling criteria such as expected improvement (EI) depend on both the probability mass below the current best value and the shape of the predictive distribution in this region. This article studies goal-oriented calibration of GP predictive distributions below a low threshold $t$ in the noiseless setting, for standard GP models with hyperparameters selected by maximum likelihood. We consider two complementary forms of calibration below $t$ for inputs distributed according to a reference measure $μ$: occurrence calibration over the design space and thresholded $μ$-calibration on sublevel sets of the form $\{x\in\mathbb{X}, f(x)\le t\}$. We propose tcGP, a post-hoc method that combines these two forms of calibration for GP predictive distributions below $t$. With fixed GP hyperparameters, the exact EI sampling criterion based on tcGP generates a sequence of evaluation points that is dense in the design space. Experiments on standard benchmarks show improved lower-tail calibration and BO performance relative to standard GP models and globally calibrated GP models.

Bayesian latent space models offer a principled approach to network representation, but rely on correct specification of both geometry and link function. Real-world networks often violate these assumptions, exhibiting geometric mismatch and structural anomalies that break standard metric properties. We show that such misspecification pushes the data-generating distribution outside the model class, causing Bayesian inference to become overconfident and poorly calibrated. To address this, we propose a generalized posterior framework for random geometric graphs. We introduce Link-Sequential R-SafeBayes, a method that exploits dyadic conditional independence to estimate prequential risk and adaptively tune posterior regularization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate improved calibration, better link prediction performance, and a reliable criterion for selecting latent geometries across Euclidean, spherical, and hyperbolic spaces.

We propose MATE, a simple yet effective memory architecture for solving Contextual Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs), a family of MDPs parameterized by an unobserved context. In CMDPs, an optimal agent can adapt online by maintaining the posterior belief over contexts. MATE replaces this intractable posterior with a sum-aggregated memory, leveraging the posterior's permutation invariance to retain provably sufficient expressiveness. Compared to prior memory architectures, MATE avoids the growing per-step rollout cost of Transformers and the gradient issues commonly associated with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Extensive evaluations across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that MATE provides clear computational advantages while achieving performance comparable to standard sequence-model baselines.

A central obstacle in nonlinear Bayesian filtering is representing the belief distribution. Moment-based filters address this by propagating polynomial moments and reconstructing a density from them. Recent work completes the predict-update loop via the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) principle, but each step requires the partition function and its gradient, both $n$-dimensional integrals whose cost scales exponentially, restricting the demonstrated MaxEnt moment filtering to $n \le 4$. We avoid the partition function entirely by combining score matching with Stein's identity. In our setting, score matching reduces the density fit to a single linear solve whose coefficients are assembled directly from the propagated moments. The same parameters then drive Stein's identity to close the moment hierarchy during prediction and to recover posterior moments after each Bayesian update, keeping the full predict-update loop free of partition function evaluation. The resulting Score Kalman Filter (SKF) reduces to the classical information-form Kalman filter as a special case and performs every step through linear algebra. On nonlinear coupled-oscillator networks, the SKF runs through $n=20$ and reports lower RMSE than the EKF, UKF, EnKF, and particle-filter baselines on the tested synthetic benchmarks.

Generative diffusion models can provide powerful prior probability models for inverse problems in imaging, but existing implementations suffer from two key limitations: $(i)$ the prior density is represented implicitly, and $(ii)$ they rely on likelihood approximations that introduce sampling biases. We address these challenges by introducing a new energy-based model trained for denoising with a covariance-based regularization term that enforces consistency across different measurement conditions. The trained model can compute normalized posterior densities for diverse linear inverse problems, without additional retraining or fine tuning. In addition to preserving the sampling capabilities of diffusion models, this enables previously unavailable capabilities: energy-guided adaptive sampling that adjusts schedules on-the-fly, unbiased Metropolis-Hastings correction steps, and blind estimation of the degradation operator via Bayes rule. We validate the method on multiple datasets (ImageNet, CelebA, AFHQ) and tasks (inpainting, deblurring), demonstrating competitive or superior performance to established baselines.

This work studies lung tumor growth prediction from sparse and irregular longitudinal computed tomography (CT) observations with measurement variability. A Bayesian physics-informed neural network is developed by combining Gompertz growth dynamics with low-dimensional Bayesian inference in the log-volume domain. The framework employs a two-stage inference strategy combining maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling to estimate posterior predictive distributions and uncertainty intervals. The method was evaluated on longitudinal data from the National Lung Screening Trial (30 patients). Results show that the model captures heterogeneous tumor growth patterns while maintaining reasonable prediction accuracy under limited observations. Compared with deterministic modeling approaches, the proposed approach additionally provides calibrated uncertainty estimates. The inferred posterior parameter correlations were consistent with expected biological growth behavior. The proposed framework achieved a cohort-level log-space RMSE of approximately 0.20 together with well-calibrated 95% credible interval coverage across 30 patients. These findings suggest that Bayesian physics-informed modeling may be useful for uncertainty-aware tumor growth assessment when only limited longitudinal follow-up scans are available.