Quantifying

We show that a quantized model that keeps its classification accuracy still changes $14$ to $46\%$ of its top-1 retrieval results, and that aggregate ranking metrics reveal only part of this damage. We tie this failure to the gap between the two highest scores and use that gap to decide when a quantized answer can be trusted and where additional precision should be spent. We show that the top-1 result is guaranteed to survive quantization only when this gap exceeds twice the largest rounding error. In classification, scores are the logits, and the loss function pushes the correct class away from other classes, encouraging this gap. In retrieval, scores are query-document scores, and nothing separates the top-1 item from the second. This gap can be measured without labels. Before deployment, it predicts which models will break under quantization, and at deployment time it tells, per input, whether the quantized answer still matches the full-precision answer. Most classification inputs have a gap wide enough to trust the quantized answer, but few retrieval queries do. That gap motivates a different fix in each task. In retrieval, spending extra bit-width on the layers whose quantization moves the gap most recovers up to three-quarters of an extra bit's benefit for half its cost. In classification, routing the few low-gap inputs to full precision recovers most of the lost accuracy at a fraction of the cost.

Frontier coding agents are increasingly trusted to work autonomously for long periods, yet an agent's final response is often the only account of that work a user sees. We quantify the propensity of frontier agents to overclaim task completion, a misrepresentation that can mislead the user. An agent overclaims when its final response contradicts information in its context. This definition requires no inference about intent and is independent of task success. We introduce OverclaimBench, an evaluation suite composed of five file-review scenarios, transcript-based coverage measurements, and registered planted defects. We evaluate eight proprietary frontier models in their own production command-line interfaces, and four open-weight models under a single fixed harness on OverclaimBench and find that 1) agents do not read all the files they were asked to review in 67.9% of runs; 2) among runs where not all files are read, agents are misleading 80.4% of the time (59--96% per model), either falsely claiming to have read all files or omitting that coverage is incomplete; 3) requiring delegation to subagents increased reading coverage, but among reviews that remained incomplete, a large majority were still misleading; and 4) agents that falsely claimed a complete review missed planted defects at about 1.8 times the rate of agents that read every file, showing that claims of completion can conceal substantive failures. Together, these results show that agents' final responses are not reliable accounts of their actions.

Large language model optimization is an active research area, spanning quantization of model weights, early-exit methods for skipping layers, and speculative decoding. Each track uses its own quality measures, typically an idiosyncratic benchmark score. Few approach the measurement precision required by other scientific disciplines. We propose a rigorous methodology for measuring output quality, suitable for cross-system and cross-technique comparison. We score outputs with an LLM as a judge, but calibrate the judge formally: we compare its scores on two ordinary runs of a model given the same prompts, verifying that it shows no systematic preference between statistically equivalent outputs and measuring its per-sample noise. Each design also includes a 'null' condition, provably identical in distribution to the unmodified model, whose measured difference must be zero. With this one instrument we measure several acceleration techniques on the same prompts, so their quality costs can be compared. Perceived quality proves highly dependent on the domain of discourse. A 4-bit model was indistinguishable from its 16-bit original down to our design's +/-0.3-point resolution, in English prose and Chinese alike. At 3-bit precision the same prompts lost 0.5 points in English prose, 0.9 in Chinese, and 1.1 on multi-step math; early exit that cost 0.7 points on prose cost 2.5 on math, cutting correctly solved problems from 19 of 27 to 6. The pattern held for models from Alibaba and from Meta, but not its magnitude: the same quantizer cost Meta's model 1.8 points where it cost Alibaba's 0.7. A model's certainty about a token predicts how likely it is to differ from the full model's choice, but not how much that difference affects judged quality, so acceptance rules relying on certainty cannot distinguish errors that matter from errors that don't.

We report on the continued development of CatchMonitor, resulting in a prototype computer vision system designed to automatically quantify discarded fish from video footage collected from Remote Electronic Monitoring (REM) systems on fishing trawlers. The analysis of trawler surveillance footage is a challenging problem due to the real-world conditions on board fishing vessels. Building on our prior work we improve the accuracy of species identification through the application of semi-supervised learning. We utilise a simple and robust object tracking approach, upon which we build our prototype discard quantification system. Finally we analyse the variability of manual discard quantification performed by multiple expert human analysts, using it as a benchmark against which we compare the performance of our system.

The prevailing assumption in applied machine learning is that progress on consequential quantitative decisions such as pricing risk, allocating capital, triaging patients, or containing a network intrusion will follow from progress in large language models (LLMs). A language model is trained on a representation of the world that was produced by human description; description is a lossy encoding of the quantitative record, and the loss is irreversible: no downstream model, at any scale, can recover from a description what the description did not encode. We formalize this as a property of the representation on which a model is trained rather than of the model capacity, and we identify three further properties that consequential settings demand of a model and that a language substrate cannot supply by construction: reproducibility, lineage from every output back to the source records that produced. it, and calibrated uncertainty. We argue that these properties define a distinct model class, which we call the Large Quantitative Model (LQM).

Long documents often distribute important information across extensive narrative passages and multiple tables, making faithful summarization particularly challenging. Existing methods may generate individually supported quantitative facts and analytical statements yet associate them incorrectly, producing quantitatively plausible yet analytically unfaithful summaries. In this work, we propose LOOMSUM, a training-free framework that extracts source-grounded atomic evidence, explicitly links table-derived facts with supporting narrative analyses, and plans the discourse structure before generation. We also introduce Table-Grounded Faithfulness (TGF), a claim-level metric that separately evaluates Numeric Grounding, Analysis Support, and Relation Consistency. Experiments on the text--table summarization benchmarks FINDSum and USTT show that LOOMSUM improves analytical faithfulness while maintaining strong summarization quality. Human evaluation finds positive component-level associations with the corresponding human judgments. Our Relation Consistency metric further shows stronger agreement with human relation judgments than generic factuality metrics, indicating that explicit cross-modal linking helps reduce errors in which supported quantities are paired with incorrect narrative interpretations. Together, these findings show that faithful long text--table summarization requires not only grounding individual facts, but also preserving the relations between them.

Korean introduces an additional typographical perturbation level not captured by ordinary character-level edit models: because syllable blocks are internally composed of sub-character units called jamo, keyboard-level errors can occur within a syllable, either producing a valid but semantically altered character or exposing raw jamo on the surface. Both outcomes disrupt sub-word tokenization and are not reliably corrected by existing grammatical error correction pipelines, leaving LLMs directly exposed to corrupted inputs. To quantify this vulnerability, we apply five jamo-level perturbation types to the KMMLU benchmark and evaluate four language models, finding that accuracy declines monotonically with perturbation intensity and that parameter scaling does not confer robustness against intra-syllabic noise. We further show that typo-corrupted inputs induce a distinct shift in internal representations that is not reducible to ordinary answer incorrectness, and that a simple linear probe trained on these representations detects unseen perturbation types with high AUROC. Motivated by this signal, we propose Typo-Aware Chain-of-Thought (TACoT), which routes inputs to chain-of-thought inference only when the probe detects a likely typo, recovering a substantial portion of the CoT accuracy gain at a fraction of the inference cost.

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in mental health contexts raises questions about the relationship between clinical safety and environmental cost. In this paper, we examine this relationship by combining K-Bench clinical safety scores with EcoLogits life-cycle assessment estimates across 47 supported model configurations. We evaluate model performance and environmental impact across four dimensions: energy use, carbon emissions, water consumption, and abiotic depletion. The results indicate a non-linear trade-off at the upper end of the safety distribution: a 2.61 percentage-point increase in clinical safety score corresponded to an approximately 60-fold increase in estimated energy use per million output tokens. Row-level analyses further suggest that additional test-time compute did not consistently improve clinical safety and, in some configurations, was associated with lower clinical safety scores. These findings suggest that relying solely on larger models or additional inference-time computation may be an inefficient strategy for improving safety in therapeutic AI systems. We discuss the implications for sustainable deployment and highlight dynamic model selection, including model cascading, as a potential approach for reducing environmental impact while preserving clinical performance in higher-risk cases.

Advances in crop breeding have introduced an increasing number of grain varieties, creating a growing demand for efficient variety recognition and quantitative analysis. However, existing methods are typically trained on a fixed variety set, and incorporating newly introduced varieties requires additional data collection and model retraining. To address this limitation, we propose GROW, a framework for Grain Recognition and quantitative analysis in Open sets Without retraining. GROW first performs class-agnostic grain localization, converting mixed-grain images into individual instances for variety-wise counting and phenotypic measurement. It then combines visual embeddings and morphological descriptors into fused grain descriptors stored in an extensible GrainBank. Query grains are recognized through rank-similarity weighted top-k retrieval, and newly introduced varieties are incorporated by appending their descriptors without updating the deployed models. Extensive experiments under progressive variety expansion, varying grain densities, and background domain shifts demonstrate the scalability, robustness, and adaptability of GROW. Compared with joint retraining, GROW reduced the average category-registration time from 4153 s to only 39 s while maintaining competitive recognition performance. These results demonstrate that GROW provides an efficient and maintainable solution for extensible grain recognition, counting, and phenotypic analysis without repeated model retraining.

Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series. In this work, we investigate the representa- tional power of GNNs for forecasting under both static and dynamic settings (i.e., when pairwise correlations evolve drastically over time) and identify critical limitations in current architectures. To formalize this, we first propose Temporal Correlation Volatility (TCV), a model- agnostic metric designed to quantify the distributional evolution of these latent structures. We establish a clear connection between TCV and performance degradation, demonstrating that many popular models, including Transformers, generalize poorly in high-TCV settings and are often outperformed by simple structure-agnostic baselines. To address these limitations, we propose Graph Layer for Inference in Dynamic En- vironments (GLIDE), a novel GNN layer enhanced by two theoretically grounded design mechanisms: (D1) Path-based Message Passing, which captures path-based neighborhoods and (D2) Static and Dynamic Propagation Separation, which identifies optimal dynamics via local static approximation. These components significantly improve learning under dynamic topology while preserving robustness in static scenarios. Ex- tensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that GLIDE improves average performance by up to 45.6% across static and dynamic settings, with the largest gain reaching 85.7%. The source code is available at https://github.com/ChenS676/GLIDE.

AI-generated music is increasingly used at the stem level, with producers integrating synthetic drums, basslines, or vocals alongside human-performed instruments. However, current AI music detection systems are binary, treating tracks as either fully AI or fully human. In this paper, we reformulate AI music detection as a regression problem on a continuous AI energy ratio, alpha in [0, 1]. We propose a methodology that leverages a multi-track music dataset to assemble mixtures of human-performed and AI-reconstructed stems (obtained using a neural audio codec) with known proportions of each content type. Using this approach, we first show that a CNN-based model trained on fully AI-generated or human-performed tracks, which achieves >99% accuracy as a binary detector, when faced with mixed content, yields an output that rises with the AI stems' energy contribution, acting as a noisy and miscalibrated estimator. Our analysis of the influence of different stems shows that detection sensitivity depends on the instrument and reflects its frequency content: drums and guitar carry strong codec-artifact signatures, while vocals and bass are less detectable. Based on these insights, we train a similar CNN-based model for regression of alpha, achieving MAE = 0.076 and R^2 = 0.85 on held-out mixtures from the same pipeline. These results suggest that the regression formulation is an initial promising step towards AI-music detection in realistic music production workflows.

Quantization is known to hurt below four bits, but nobody can say which of a model's decisions will change at a given bit-width. This matters most where a model acts rather than answers: a compressed agent stops calling its tools and, one bit lower, loses roughly half its safety refusals, while benchmark scores barely move. Prior work assumes the added noise has a roughly fixed size, which would make confident decisions safe. We measure the decision instead: the margin, the picked option's score minus its best alternative's, tracked before and after quantization across 16 models from 8 families under round-to-nearest, seven under AWQ, two under GPTQ and one under GGUF, at 8 down to 2 bits. The damage is proportional, not fixed in size: the margin is multiplied by a factor that collapses with bit-width (median 0.86 at 4 bits, 0.33 at 3, 0.00 at 2), which we call margin shrinkage. Contraction removes the protection a large margin affords; the model's own biases pick the direction: at 3 bits the decision to call a tool collapses toward inaction while the choice of which tool is untouched. No additive account, including one whose noise grows with the margin, wins a single damaged whether-to-call or safety cell (378 of 378). Given a condition's own constants the relation predicts held-out flip rates to a median 1.7 points, calibrated per decision (error 0.004 over 161,744 predictions), no flip used in the fit. Borrowed constants are wrong by 18-33 points at 3 bits, so the paired margin set has to be measured per model and bit-width: it locates breaking decisions without replacing measurement. At 4 bits the measurement is anchored to behaviour (the most likely token over the whole vocabulary is one of the item's two options in 85% of tool items); we treat the 2-bit floor as where the instrument stops measuring. No label-free repair we tested recovers more than one more bit does.

Recent advances in Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have enabled remarkable progress in visual synthesis, benefiting from their superior scalability. To facilitate DiTs' capability of capturing meaningful internal representations, recent works such as REPA incorporate external pretrained encoders for representation alignment. However, the underlying mechanisms governing representation learning within DiTs remain poorly understood in the community. To this end, this paper first presents a systematic analysis of the representation dynamics of DiTs via quantifying the diversity of block-wise representations. Specifically, we introduce a novel metric, termed the Weighted Diversity Score (WDS), to measure the representational discrepancies across different blocks. Through extensive investigations on the evolution and influence of internal representations under various settings, we reveal that representation diversity across blocks is a critical factor for effective representation learning in DiTs. More importantly, WDS exhibits a strong correlation with synthesis quality across diverse settings, model scales, and training stages (Pearson's $r=-0.869$ with $\log(\text{FID})$), suggesting its potential as an indicator to reflect model performance and a principled guide for model optimization. Based on this key finding, we propose DiverseDiT++, a novel framework that explicitly promotes diverse representation learning. Concretely, our method incorporates long residual connections to diversify input representations across blocks and a representation diversity loss to encourage blocks to learn distinct features. Extensive experiments on ImageNet $256\times256$ and $512\times512$ demonstrate that our DiverseDiT++ yields consistent performance gains and convergence acceleration when applied to different backbones with various sizes,...

Derived measurements increasingly enter large language model (LLM) pipelines as direct facts despite their instance-dependent validity. We define derived-feature over-trust (DFOT) as the failure in which a downstream LLM assigns such a measurement the epistemic status of a direct fact or uses it outside its valid scope. Using physiological sensing as a case study, D1 tests acceptance of a PPG-derived rhythm contradicted by offline ECG, whereas D2 tests rejection of an offline-confirmed reliable PPG rhythm under misleading severe history. ECG supplies training supervision and offline reference construction but is never shown to the LLM. Five estimands quantify this chain: conflict over-trust rate (COTR) and context-induced error rate (CIR) characterize D1/D2; correct repair rate (CRR) measures frozen-error repair; evidence-specific repair margin (ESRM) contrasts matched and patient-disjoint shuffled evidence; and utility harm rate (UHR) measures unnecessary verification among HIGH-reliability cases used without verification at baseline. The framework does not depend on a particular reliability generator. We demonstrate it on 50,000 paired PPG-ECG records using ECG-to-PPG privileged distillation as an illustrative baseline and PPG-only inference. On a protocol-locked 187-patient test, the baseline improves four repair and specificity endpoints by 1.82-6.69 percentage points, with all paired confidence intervals excluding zero; UHR increases by 0.67 percentage points (95% CI: -0.4 to +1.7). DFOT provides a common evaluation target for stronger mitigation methods. The code is available at https://github.com/Zongheng-Guo/When-Derived-Measurements-Mislead.

Large language models (LLMs) process text through subword tokenizers rather than directly reading characters or words. Because these tokenizers are trained predominantly on English-centric corpora, they introduce a systematic and often overlooked disadvantage for many non-English languages. In this work, we quantify this tokenizer tax for Indian languages using the FLORES-200 parallel corpus, measuring tokenization fertility across six widely used tokenizers and fourteen languages. Under cl100k_base (used by GPT-3.5 and GPT-4), Indian languages experience an average 8.0x tokenization tax relative to English, reaching 13.0x for Malayalam, reducing the effective context window to as little as 12% of that available to English users for equivalent semantic content. We identify the primary mechanism behind this disparity: failed byte-pair merges that leave text fragmented into single-byte tokens, with merge failure strongly correlating with tokenizer tax (Pearson r = 0.89). We further show that this phenomenon is not an inherent property of Indic scripts but a consequence of tokenizer design. Multilingual tokenizers such as XLM-R and OpenAI's o200k_base reduce the average Indic tokenizer tax by 73%, demonstrating that the disparity is largely remediable. Beyond token statistics, we quantify a practical consequence by showing that, under fixed context budgets, Indian-language documents preserve substantially less original content than equivalent English documents. Finally, we examine the relationship between tokenizer fertility and reading comprehension performance on the Belebele benchmark, finding that the apparent correlation is largely explained by language resource availability rather than tokenizer behavior alone.

This Good Practice Guide presents work done in the QUMPHY project (Uncertainty quantification for machine learning models applied to photoplethysmography signals) that considered both machine learning and uncertainty quantification for problems which used photoplethysmography (PPG) signals from wearable devices as input. It provides high-level guidance on what types of machine learning model might be used and how different models compare when applied to both regression and classification tasks. It provides guidance on the implementation of different methods for uncertainty quantification, covering both model-dependent and model-independent techniques, and on the validation of the results provided by those methods. It also describes six benchmark problems together with pointers to different benchmark datasets for each problem. Software is described that can assist practitioners in implementing the methods described herein and there is a brief consideration of ethical issues. It concludes with a summary and recommendations.

Cross-dataset generalisation remains a major barrier to clinical deployment of echocardiographic left ventricular segmentation, yet the sources of this shift are rarely disentangled. We examined whether transfer degradation could be estimated before deployment using handcrafted ultrasound descriptors, VAE latent features, and segmentation-derived latent features across six echocardiographic datasets. Geometry-aware preprocessing substantially improved several poor transfer cases, suggesting that much of the apparent domain shift reflects field-of-view and framing inconsistencies rather than intrinsic acoustic differences alone. Intensity z-normalisation changed dataset separability by less than 0.005, indicating that brightness and contrast are not the dominant shift axis. Absolute Dice drop on held-out source-target pairs was predicted with an R-squared value of 0.612, an MAE of 0.082, and a Spearman rho of 0.681. The variant without LV and fan-shaped features retained approximately 70% of this explanatory power, supporting mask-free transfer-risk monitoring. The most informative discrepancy measure depended on the representation, with CMD strongest in z-normalised handcrafted features, with an absolute r of approximately 0.86 and an R-squared value of approximately 0.70; log-Wasserstein strongest in VAE space, with an r of approximately -0.90 and an R-squared value of approximately 0.81; and log-MMD strongest in LV-segmentation latent features, with an r of approximately -0.92 and an R-squared value of approximately 0.84. Apparent vendor effects were largely dataset-confounded. Echocardiographic domain shift is therefore structured and measurable, and its impact on segmentation can be partly reduced through geometry-aware preprocessing and anticipated using representation-specific transfer-risk estimation.

Energy system models guide societally important decisions, but their credibility rests on quantitative assumptions that are difficult to source and audit. Meta-analyses can improve transparency and modeling practices, but the rapid growth of publications makes manual information extraction increasingly impractical. Consequently, databases are updated infrequently and efforts are often duplicated across research groups. Here, we demonstrate the highly accurate automated extraction of quantitative information from 76,000 energy system studies published since 2010. We compile 3.2 million structured quantitative data points together with 20 million associated metadata entries, spanning a broad spectrum of technologies, methodological approaches and system characteristics. Beyond providing input data for models, the resulting FAIR database make the energy systems literature itself analysable. We show where academic assumptions diverge from empirical observed data, and how research priorities vary at scale across technologies, regions and time. To facilitate broad use within the community, the database is provided through an interactive dashboard, enabling users to filter, analyse and download data according to their specific research needs.

SWITi is a test-time method for reducing artifacts in tiled predictions, particularly for neural networks that learn posterior distributions from which solutions are sampled at inference time. Tiled predictions are unavoidable for large image data, and artifacts arise whenever tiles are smaller than a network's receptive field and when tiles are independent posterior samples. SWITi averages overlapping sliding-window predictions, so discrepancies between neighboring samples are spread across shifted tile positions rather than accumulating at fixed seam coordinates. For posterior models, SWITi uses no more tile samples than an MMSE estimate requires and therefore incurs no additional forward passes. Additionally, we introduce two reference-free metrics, the Fraction of Rejected Tests (FRT) and Artifact Severity (ASV), for detecting and quantifying tiling artifacts from a per-tile permutation test that compares the distribution of pixel gradients across tile seams against the surrounding image content. On pre-trained and published image splitting models across three fluorescence microscopy datasets in 2D and 3D, we show that SWITi substantially attenuates stitching seams while also improving reconstruction fidelity and resolution. Since tiling artifacts in posterior predictions can easily be mistaken for biological structures or for boundaries between biological structures, removing or reducing them using SWITi will improve the downstream processing of large image predictions, which is particularly relevant for biomedical data.

Computational social science increasingly relies on automated preprocessing pipelines -- speaker diarization, ASR transcript cleaning, sentence segmentation -- to convert raw media into analyzable text. When these pipelines produce different outputs from the same input, two distinct sources of instability can arise: the preprocessing pipeline itself (diarization method, segmentation rules) and the downstream measurement instrument (LLM annotation vs.\ keyword lexicon). Using 256 YouTube interviews across 41 public figures from five domains, we compare two speaker-diarization pipelines and two measurement methods, all targeting the coupling between affective valence and epistemic modality. We find that (1) preprocessing pipeline sensitivity is concentrated in speakers with limited video samples (N $\leq 5$); for the four best-sampled speakers (N $\geq 16$), the mean absolute pipeline-induced change in $r(\text{neg}, \text{emph})$ is only $0.13$; (2) cross-method disagreement is larger and more systematic -- the LLM and keyword-lexicon methods assign opposite coupling directions to several well-sampled speakers, even within the same preprocessing pipeline; and (3) aggregate valence proportions are highly stable ($|Δp(\text{neg})| < 6$pp) regardless of pipeline or method, masking both sources of instability. The contribution is a diagnostic framework that separates pipeline effects from measurement effects: researchers studying cross-dimensional relationships in interview data should verify that their conclusions are robust to both sources of variation, with particular attention to measurement method choice.

For urban managers and designers, improving the functional attributes of urban communities to enhance territorial resilience in the face of complexity and uncertainty is crucial. Currently, community planning often follows a top-down approach and lacks effective metrics to quantify informal behaviors of residents, leading to frequent conflicts with original plans. This study introduces CommuniWave, a machine learning model designed to efficiently detect and quantify the Degree of Informal Behavior (DIB) in urban communities. The model integrates a Behavior Capture Net (BCN) based on mmaction2, a self-developed YOLOv10 model (YLX), and a Behavior Eval Model (BEM) using random forest. Ultimately, by generating DIB fluctuation charts from street videos, the model facilitates dynamic monitoring, supporting urban managers in making refined decisions to enhance the overall resilience of communities.

We study the infinite-width Gaussian-process limit of random neural networks through the lens of tensor programs, and we provide a quantitative convergence theory in Wasserstein distance. Our main result gives explicit finite-width error bounds, of order inverse square-root of the widths between finite-network executions and their Gaussian-process limits. The framework is architecture-agnostic and covers feed-forward models together with weight-sharing schemes relevant for recurrent and transformer-type architectures.

Accurately estimating the unknown target label distribution is the critical first step for adapting to label shift. This task, widely known as quantification or class prevalence estimation, has recently seen significant advances through continuous KDE-based methods which model the density of multiclass classifier posteriors. Posterior vectors might be regarded as compositional data, since they lie on the probability simplex. However, existing KDE-based quantifiers typically rely on Euclidean Gaussian kernels, which ignore simplex geometry and incorrectly assign probability mass outside its boundaries. We introduce a geometry-aware KDE model for multiclass quantification based on log-ratio representations and Aitchison geometry, together with a shrinkage regularization that improves robustness near the simplex boundary. Combined with a maximum-likelihood interpretation of KDE-based quantification, we derive both point-estimation and Bayesian inference procedures for class prevalences. Experiments on 42 datasets across tabular, text, and image domains show that the proposed method is competitive with state-of-the-art quantifiers, often improving over standard KDE-based baselines, while also yielding strong results among Bayesian quantification methods.

Emotion recognition in natural language is a foundational challenge in affective computing, with critical implications for human-computer interaction, mental health support, and conversational AI. This paper presents a rigorous, unified zero-shot evaluation of three leading commercial large language models: Claude (claude-sonnet-4-6), ChatGPT (GPT-5.4), and Gemini (gemini-2.5-flash). The models were queried through their respective production APIs as of April 2026 on a fine-grained 13-class emotion classification task. Using a stratified 1,000-sentence sample from the boltuix/emotions dataset, which comprises 131,306 sentences across 13 categories, a single uniform prompt with no exemplars was applied identically across all models. Gemini achieves the highest accuracy (39.9%) and macro-F1 score (0.363), followed by GPT-5.4 (38.8%, macro-F1 = 0.291) and Claude (38.0%, macro-F1 = 0.159). All models excel on sarcasm and desire while consistently failing on love, confusion, and shame. McNemar tests reveal no statistically significant pairwise differences (p > 0.10), suggesting convergence at a shared zero-shot ceiling. Claude's markedly lower macro-F1 score exposes a class-imbalance prediction bias. These findings highlight the current limitations of frontier AI systems in zero-shot fine-grained emotion classification.

Earnings announcements release two types of information sequentially: quantitative surprise (numeric earnings-per-share (EPS)/revenue versus analyst estimate) arrives first in press releases and financial news, processed by algorithmic traders within minutes; qualitative language (management tone, guidance, question-and-answer (Q&A) credibility) arrives 30-90 min later in the earnings conference call transcript (ECT), requiring human interpretation overnight. Financial economists have studied quantitative surprise for 50 years; natural language processing (NLP) researchers have studied qualitative ECT signals for a decade. Despite studying the same event, the two communities used incompatible frameworks: different targets (return vs. volatility), trading setups (long top-decile and short bottom-decile vs. trade-all), and metrics (return spread between top and bottom 20% (Q5-Q1) vs. mean squared error (MSE)), making direct comparison and connection challenging. We bridge these communities with EarningsInOne, the first corpus aligning earnings news, ECTs, and intraday and next-day prices across SP 1500 (broad U.S. equity universe, 2022-2025). Applying unified trading and evaluation tools to both signal types, we confirm a clean speed separation, fast numbers, slow language: quantitative surprise peaks at announcement and is largely eliminated by the next market open; qualitative ECT sentiment peaks on the next trading day, real and tradeable, but hidden under prior transcript-based evaluation that optimised sign-agnostic volatility with pointwise MSE.

Formal semantics has shown that sentence meanings arise by recursively composing lexical meanings, yet much of the literature on semantic universals models either lexicons with fixed signal structures or holistic composition without interpretable lexical parts. We introduce a framework that integrates this fundamental insight of formal semantics in evolutionary modeling, by allowing lexical meanings and a composition function to co-evolve under pressures for conceptual simplicity and communicative accuracy. We apply this framework to the evolution of quantificational meaning. Analyzing the Pareto frontier, we find that the most well-known semantic universal, conservativity, emerges as an efficient system-wide abstraction. The account is sensitive to syntactic structure and helps reconcile tensions between empirical evidence on quantifier learnability and prior evolutionary models. More broadly, the results demonstrate that the picture of sentential meaning developed in formal semantics can be productively combined with evolutionary modeling. The framework offers a template for studying universals that involve global compression within a grammatical category, semantic specialization of syntactic arguments, and the co-evolution of lexical and compositional meaning.

Ray Kurzweil described a thesis of accelerating returns, which is the most influential narratives in discussions of technological progress. Its central claim is that advances in multiple technological fields, especially compute, artificial intelligence, brain science, and biotechnology, interact in such a way that progress becomes self-amplifying and approximately exponential. This paper gives a simple mathematical interpretation of that claim and then argues that, even if such acceleration is real, it does not by itself resolve the central problem of scientific discovery. The reason is that accelerating returns apply most naturally to executional and infrastructural capability, whereas genuine discovery often depends on a different capacity: qualitative reasoning about when a current framework is structurally inadequate and what conceptual move is needed next. Recent ARC-AGI-3 results sharpen this distinction: humans solve the benchmark at ceiling, whereas frontier AI systems remain below 1%, indicating that the gap between current AI and human flexible reasoning is still very large. At the same time, Demis Hassabis has emphasized that humans must retain their sense of meaning and what they choose to focus their lives on, a reminder that the future of AI is not only a technical forecast but also a question of what forms of human understanding are worth preserving and transmitting. This paper positions the Qualitative Engine for Science (QES) [3] as a response to that missing capacity. In this view, the Kurzweil theory helps explain why quantitative capability may accelerate, while QES addresses the central problem in scientific discovery that acceleration alone does not solve. Its value does not depend on when AGI arrives, but on the fact that the processes of scientific discovery themselves constitute a form of human wisdom worth preserving, organizing, and making accessible.

One way to understand LLM behavior is to trace its output back to the training data. Two types of measures are commonly used for output tracing: data-similarity and data-influence. The former is cheaper while the latter is believed to be more accurate. Even though many works have compared them for ground-truth tasks, no such comparisons exist for output tracing. Here, we fill this gap and precisely quantify the commonalities and differences between the two measures. We do this by first ranking the training documents according to each measure and then computing the overlap between the two rankings. Our main finding is that the two rankings agree significantly, but there is an asymmetry between them: The top documents of data-similarity are assigned more consistent ranks by data-influence than the other way around. This result is valid across a range of experiments involving OLMo2-1B, Qwen3-1.7B, LlaMa3.2-1B, Gemma3-1B, and GPT2. We exploit the asymmetry to obtain a favorable cost-accuracy trade-off by using the costly data-influence to refine the results of data-similarity.

AI pipelines that reason quantitatively over technical text depend on input where physical quantities, numbers, units, and symbolic expressions arrive intact; when these entities fragment at tokenization, errors propagate downstream. Byte-Pair Encoding, optimized for vocabulary compression, is blind to such entities and fragments them into arbitrary subwords -- a problem aggravated in technical Brazilian Portuguese. We present TOTEN, a knowledge-based system whose input representation preserves each technical entity as a whole, typed unit: vocabulary is not derived statistically but classified declaratively under a formal ontology of engineering entities (OEE). The core is the triple <O, classify, {inst_tau}>: types, principles, and invariants; a classifier mapping raw text into typed regions; and instantiators yielding a self-descriptive representation. Integrity rests on deterministic coupling to three external authorities: Pint (dimensional), Unicode Character Database (typographic), and RSLP (Portuguese morphology). We evaluate four properties verifiable by construction -- atomicity, dimensional equivalence, typographic robustness, numerical reconstruction -- on an internal benchmark (EngQuant, N=800) and four Brazilian Portuguese external corpora (N=1771 eligible cases), and report detection recall. Against eight state-of-the-art baselines, TOTEN reaches unit atomicity in all contrasts and reconstruction of 0.775-0.904 externally vs. 0.627-0.703 for the best (Quantulum3); on EngQuant, 0.780 vs. 0.340. Differences are significant (McNemar, Holm-corrected). Spearman correlation between internal and external rankings confirms concurrent validity of the control benchmark. TOTEN shows statistical parity with Pint in dimensional equivalence. The result is a structurally faithful, auditable, low-cost input layer for intelligent systems on technical knowledge, without generative models.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning. For regression problems, dominant scalar UQ approaches - notably, those based on proper scoring rules - measure uncertainty via pointwise predictive risk. This can lead to counterintuitive results when the target statistic is not the conditional expectation. We propose an alternative framework, in which uncertainty is characterised by the volume of the most probable subset of a distribution's support. QUEST (Quantifying Uncertainty via highest dEnSiTy regions) is a novel approach to UQ based on the concentration of Lebesgue measure at a distribution's peak(s), evaluated at one or more values of a robustness parameter $α$. We establish connections between our measures and classical statistics from information theory and economics. We show that, unlike popular alternatives based on proper scoring rules, QUEST measures of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty satisfy a set of axioms adapted from the UQ literature, including monotonicity under distributional spread and invariance to location shifts. Selective prediction benchmarks confirm that QUEST performs favourably against standard measures such as variance and differential entropy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judges for scalable evaluation, yet such LLM--as--a--Judge systems exhibit systematic biases that are decoupled from semantic quality, most notably verbosity bias. Meanwhile, human supervision is costly and typically selective, yielding reliable positive judgments but leaving most outputs unlabelled and potentially mixed in quality. We formulate LLM evaluation under selective human supervision as a positive--unlabelled learning problem and propose a geometric auditing framework based on Partial Optimal Transport. By aligning a small set of human--verified positives with a reliable subset of unlabelled outputs in a fixed embedding space, our method identifies human--consistent preferences and corrects biased judges without retraining. Experiments demonstrate improved alignment with human preferences, increased robustness to presentation biases, and interpretable confidence estimates, offering a scalable and statistically grounded alternative to existing LLM--as--a--judge pipelines.

Reliable pixel-level uncertainty quantification holds the potential to transform clinical workflows by enabling high-fidelity longitudinal monitoring and distinguishing true pathological changes from artifacts. Ideally, these models provide the stability required for critical treatment planning and surgical intervention. However, standard deep learning models often suffer from miscalibration, yielding overconfident predictions that mask underlying vulnerabilities at subtle pathological boundaries. To address this, we propose QUAM-SM, a post-hoc framework using targeted adversarial search to identify "adversarially fragile" pixels. By actively seeking perturbations that expose predictive instability, our method highlights regions where decisions are most vulnerable to being flipped. Importantly, the framework disentangles epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on two public datasets with multiple expert annotations demonstrate that QUAM-SM outperforms both standard and recent uncertainty estimation approaches in terms of reliability and boundary sensitivity. Code is available at https://github.com/HanaJebril/quam_sm

Warning: This paper studies stereotypes and biases, and contains potentially disturbing examples, used for illustration purposes only. Our findings should not be interpreted as an argument against alignment. Instead, this paper highlights the need for principled approaches to more advanced alignment. Alignment aims to ensure that large language models (LLMs) behave safely and reliably, including by avoiding unsafe inferences. However, we show that such safety-oriented behaviors can misfire: models may reject warranted conclusions even when they are explicitly supported by context. We call this failure mode misfired alignment, where alignment-induced changes cause LLMs to override explicit evidence. To quantify this phenomenon, specifically on stereotype-related alignment, we introduce VETO, a benchmark consisting of 2,032 BBQ-derived contrastive pairs, and define a new metric, Misfired Alignment Rate (MAR), which measures on a 0 to 100 scale how often a model fails on a stereotype-related question but succeeds on its contrastive counterpart. We benchmark 25 LLMs on VETO, and show that all LLMs, including the most recent ones, exhibit non-trivial (4.7 to 18.9%) MARs while all human participants achieve 0.0% MAR. Controlled priming experiments further show that alignment-induced cues can substantially amplify MAR across LLMs, indicating that these failures are not merely artifacts of individual examples but can be induced by safety-related framing. Mechanistic analyses on open-weight LLMs reveal late-layer suppression of evidence-supported answers, and comparisons between instruct and base LLMs suggest that this suppression emerges after instruction training. These findings show that current alignment methods can overgeneralize surface-level safety cues, to the point of overriding objective evidence, motivating more work on alignment objectives that better preserve contextual grounding.

Grayscale images are commonly found in historical photography restoration, medical imaging, and artistic media. However, automatically applying color to these images remains a significant challenge in computer vision because many plausible colorizations can correspond to the same grayscale input. In this work, we quantify the effect of text conditioning on pixel-level and perceptual metrics for grayscale-to-color image models. Specifically, we compare two architectures, a U-Net and Stable Diffusion 1.5, each tested with and without CLIP text conditioning while holding all other variables constant. Our results show that text conditioning improves PSNR by 5.6%, SSIM by 1.2%, and colorfulness by 36.6%, while reducing LPIPS by 7.6% in the U-Net tier. In the Stable Diffusion tier, text conditioning improves PSNR by 5.8%, SSIM by 1.5%, and colorfulness by 0.6%, while reducing LPIPS by 11.3%. These results indicate that text conditioning provides consistent, measurable improvements to colorization quality across both architecture scales.

Despite increasing adoption of multimodal approaches in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) research -- aimed at integrating molecular, structural, clinical, and genetic biomarkers to enhance disease characterization -- the relationships among these modalities remain poorly understood. A systematic analysis of their dynamic interaction is essential for improving disease modeling, identifying redundant assessments, and reducing patient burden and acquisition costs. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of multimodal AD biomarkers by integrating tau-PET, structural MRI, cognitive scores (MMSE and CDR), and APOE4 data from 789 subjects drawn from the ADNI dataset. In our analyses, we (A) quantify cross-modal mutual information and explained variance to assess redundancy and predictive dependencies; (B) examine associations between tau topologies and structural atrophy across brain regions to select informative ROIs; (C) perform a statistical decomposition of the tau-cognition association into atrophy-related and atrophy-independent components; (D) and identify a dominant neurodegenerative trajectory that aligns with cognitive decline. This study provides a systematic characterization of cross-modal relationships, improving the interpretability and selection of biomarkers in AD. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/antonioscardace/Multimodal-AD.

AI agents can now take irreversible actions in operational systems, but agent-caused losses are still not clearly assigned, priced, or transferred. Providers often disclaim consequential damages, users are left with uncompensated losses, and default human review limits the efficiency gains of automation. We ask when autonomous AI deployment can become economically acceptable despite failure risk. Our answer is to quantify risk at the customer-task-trace episode level and transfer it through insurance. Automation is acceptable when its expected benefit exceeds the premium, control cost, and remaining risk. This requires a defined role with bounded permissions and comparable traces. We introduce trace-economic underwriting, which maps tool-use traces to customer exposure and claimable loss, then uses this representation for pricing, control, and risk transfer. It uses deterministic economic labels rather than an LLM judge. In our trace-to-loss testbed, trace-economic pricing reduces pricing MAE from $17.7K to$569 and removes regressive cross-subsidy. A 300-trace expert audit accepts 295 labels unchanged. On 1,000 real SWE-smith traces, trace-conditioned controls reduce CVaR95 by 72%. Theorem~1 gives a finite-sample scope condition. We release code, labels, and audit sheets.

Neural networks are used as generative surrogate models for scientific discovery, which are trainable approximations of scientific simulations. These models enable users to replace time-consuming numerical simulations with learned alternatives, providing quick solutions. However, high-fidelity generative surrogate models require massive training datasets, which can create storage and I/O challenges. Lossy compression is a promising way to reduce this burden, but compression errors may affect the model quality in subtle ways, making it challenging to quantify their impact. In this work, we examine how lossy compression of training data impacts the quality of generative surrogate models. We begin by characterizing the uncertainty inherent in training neural networks, showing that identical training configurations can produce different models. By exploiting this variability, we propose a method to estimate how much compression-induced error a surrogate model can tolerate without affecting its accuracy. Evaluation of two application simulations demonstrates that our approach significantly reduces memory/storage requirements and speeds up training while producing high-quality surrogate models. These results show that lossy compression saves data storage up to 23.7x and 39x with negligible impact on the quality of the surrogate model. Meanwhile, reducing the size of the training data set also enhances the data loading speed and reduces the training time by up to 3x.

Co-creative AI research increasingly seeks methods capable of representing how interaction dynamics evolve through time. While many existing approaches focus on observable interaction characteristics, interaction metrics, behavioral coding schemes, or activity traces, these methods often struggle to capture higher-order interaction dynamics, including how collaborative processes reorganize, stabilize, regulate, and evolve through time. This paper introduces Cognitive Trajectory Modeling (CTM) as a cognitive theory of interaction dynamics that conceptualizes cognition, interaction, and creative processes as temporally organized trajectories unfolding across cognitively meaningful attractor landscapes. CTM builds upon the theoretical foundations of the Enactive Model of Creativity and Creative Sense-Making (CSM), revisiting the role of sense-making curves and cognitive trajectories in representing co-creative interaction dynamics. We formalize this perspective through the Cognitive Trajectory Principle, which states that temporal representations are only theoretically interpretable as cognitive trajectories when their underlying states possess directional cognitive meaning. Building on this principle, CTM generalizes the notion of cognitive trajectories beyond any particular coding scheme and provides a broader framework for modeling interaction dynamics through trajectories unfolding across meaningful attractor landscapes. We further distinguish cognitive trajectories from interaction traces and situate CTM within a broader hierarchy of cognitive, interaction, and domain dynamics. More broadly, we argue that understanding co-creative systems requires methods capable of modeling how cognition and interaction dynamics unfold through time. CTM provides a foundation for studying interaction dynamics across co-creative AI and human-AI interaction.

Quantized checkpoints are often screened first with quality metrics and only later, if at all, with direct safety tests. This paper audits that shortcut on a matched 51-row matrix spanning 6 models, 4 families, a 7-level GGUF ladder, and AWQ/GPTQ INT4 checkpoints. In this matrix the shortcut fails: all 36 quality-safety pairings split direction across models, and 9 hidden-danger rows plus 1 near-hidden-danger row show quality stable or improved while refusal falls by 12-68 percentage points. Seven of the 11 AWQ/GPTQ rows are hidden-danger. A four-probe mechanistic follow-up over the 17 Hugging Face-backed FP16/AWQ/GPTQ cells does not rescue it: entropy, refusal-direction, and calibration probes are weak or null separators of dangerous rows, and although probe-identified safety-associated neurons absorb 1.39$\times$ more quantization error overall ($p < 5 \times 10^{-7}$), the effect is not regime-specific. Claude Sonnet 4 relabels 11,470 items in a predefined stratified set, agrees with the primary gemma3:12b judge on 89.9% of rows ($κ= 0.873$, 95% CI [0.866, 0.881]), and changes 0/10 hidden-danger cells. A calibrated study-internal behavioral screen -- the Refusal Template Stability Index (RTSI), built from four refusal-template drift features and calibrated on this matrix -- routes 10/10 hidden- or near-hidden-danger rows to direct safety testing (Wilson 95% CI lower bound 0.72) while leaving 23 of 45 non-baseline rows in a low-risk bucket under both in-sample scoring and row-level leave-one-out validation; on the same matrix, the best single-feature baselines (unique-prefix-rate-delta, raw refusal-rate delta) recover 9/10 and 8/10 respectively at matched bucket size, and cross-stack transfer requires recalibration. For the quantized checkpoints, model families, and safety outcomes studied here, retained quality cannot waive direct safety evaluation.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly released and deployed through opaque development and deployment pipelines, enabling model providers to inject intentional, provider-specific policies without officially announcing them. As a result, various models have been reported to generate responses reflecting proprietary rules and organizational interests, leading to censorship or misinformation on controversial topics. However, systematic identification of such alignment remains a fundamental challenge, complicated by the ambiguity of what ``proprietary'' entails in different contexts. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework for detecting proprietary alignment in black-box language models via comparative behavioral analysis. Our approach quantifies systematic deviations between the responses of a target model and those of a reference set of baseline models in a shared semantic space. By evaluating relative behavioral divergence rather than absolute correctness, our framework enables principled auditing under black-box access. Applied to several widely discussed but previously unquantified cases, it provides a systematic and scalable basis for external assessment of provider-specific alignment behavior in large language models.

Quantities with measurement units, such as 110 cm and 1.2 m, require language models (LMs) to combine a numeral with a symbolic unit scale. Here, we study how LMs compare such quantities in controlled settings spanning several unit systems. We find that accuracy degrades near the comparison boundary, where small changes in value determine the correct answer. The resulting errors are systematic: linear surrogate models predict LM preferences from numerical-difference and unit-scale-difference cues, and causal interventions on subspaces aligned with these variables shift model's output. The results suggest that LMs compare quantities through a bag of heuristics over numerals and units, rather than first converting both expressions to an exact shared-scale representation.

Reliable uncertainty communication is critical to the trustworthiness of LLMs, yet faithful calibration (FC)--the alignment between models' intrinsic and (linguistically) expressed confidence--is a persistent failure mode. This challenge is key for large reasoning models (LRMs), whose extended reasoning traces are often interpreted by users as evidence of deliberation, competence, and confidence. Despite the importance of FC and wide usage of LRMs, the extent to which LRMs can faithfully express their confidence remains poorly understood. Moreover, the prevailing paradigm to measure FC does not generalize well to the long chain-of-thought outputs generated by LRMs, which tend to lack clear step boundaries, involve inconsistent step structure, and encode complex conditional dependencies throughout the trace--complicating estimation of intrinsic confidence. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework to systematically quantify FC of LRMs. Our framework analyzes linguistic decisiveness relative to three sources of internal uncertainty, based on token probabilities, hidden states, and sampled response consistency. We also devise a prefix-conditioned sampling approach to control for conditional and structural variation across traces. Applying our framework to a diverse suite of leading models, datasets, and prompts, we find that faithful confidence expression is a significant challenge for LRMs. Reasoning behaviors do not automatically translate to improved FC, and prompt interventions for non-reasoning models do not improve faithfulness in the reasoning setting. Different confidence estimators further produce divergent assessments of the same traces, revealing fragility in prior evaluation methodologies. Taken together, our work establishes FC as a distinct reliability and alignment target for LRMs, particularly as such systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes contexts.

Assessing the quality of time series (TS) data is fundamental yet inherently challenging due to the multifaceted nature of quality dimensions. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for TS quality assessment via pairwise comparison and per-dimension evaluation. However, existing approaches rely on manually predefined quality dimensions and purely text-based reasoning, leaving it unknown whether LLMs can identify truly relevant quality dimensions or perform grounded and quantitative quality comparisons. To investigate this, we construct TSQBench, a dedicated benchmark for evaluating LLMs on two progressive capabilities: (i) understanding and identifying relevant quality dimensions, and (ii) performing quality comparison under specific dimensions. Our analysis reveals that current LLMs consistently struggle with both dimension identification and evidence-grounded quality comparison. To address these limitations, we propose TSQAgent, a novel agentic reasoning framework for TS quality rating consisting of three collaborative roles: Perceiver for focused dimension selection, Inspector for dimension-wise quantitative analysis, and Adjudicator that aggregates and refines the final judgment. In particular, we introduce an agentic reasoning strategy that instills the ability to identify and prioritize the most relevant quality dimensions, and further propose an agent workflow equipped with external analytical tools to enable precise quantitative comparisons over selected dimensions. Experiments on both the proposed benchmark and eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework not only substantially improves LLMs' capabilities in quality understanding and quantitative comparison but also effectively translates these improvements into better quality-aware data selection, leading to enhanced downstream performance and data efficiency.

Safe global deployment of AI models requires alignment with human values that vary across cultures. Yet rater pools in safety evaluation datasets remain largely geographically homogeneous, failing to capture geo-cultural differences. Further, it remains unclear whether such differences persist after controlling for demographics such as age, gender, and ethnicity. Through a meta-analysis of safety datasets, we find that most do not report geo-cultural information, and those that do lack a unified methodology to jointly analyze geo-cultural and demographic correlates. Using the Inglehart-Welzel dimensions of cross-cultural variation, we demonstrate via multilevel modeling that cultural zone membership explains variance in safety ratings beyond standard demographics (p<0.05 across 6 datasets). Moreover, our analysis indicates that roughly 10% of items in the datasets we examined are culturally sensitive: likely to be misclassified as safe without adequate cultural representation. We evaluate LLMs as both rater surrogates and triage tools, finding that current LLMs do not reliably stand in for raters, though they can help prioritize culturally sensitive items for human annotation. Our findings motivate more culturally pluralistic safety evaluation and offer practical takeaways to support it.

Lower extremity computed tomography (CT) contains clinically relevant information for body composition analysis, sarcopenia assessment, and musculoskeletal disease monitoring, but extracting these measurements at scale requires accurate tissue segmentation and an automated quantification workflow. Existing public segmentation tools are not designed for comprehensive lower extremity CT analysis, particularly for clinically important inter/intramuscular adipose tissue, and most public methods only provide mask prediction rather than an end-to-end quantification system. To address this problem, we present LegSegNet, a deep learning system for lower extremity CT tissue segmentation and body composition quantification. Given an input CT scan, LegSegNet segments bone, skeletal muscle, subcutaneous adipose tissue, and inter/intramuscular adipose tissue. It then computes quantitative tissue measurements for downstream analysis. We developed the segmentation model using 1,302 manually annotated CT slices and evaluated it on 900 held-out test slices, with all annotations reviewed by radiologists. We benchmark LegSegNet against a broad set of 2D segmentation methods, including CNN-based models, transformer-based models, and finetuned foundation models, and further evaluate its generalization on an external public CT dataset. LegSegNet achieves the best overall segmentation performance, with an average Dice score of 89.31 on the held-out test set. To our knowledge, LegSegNet is the first publicly available end-to-end system for lower extremity CT tissue segmentation and quantification, providing a practical evaluation tool for future computer vision research in medical image analysis. The code and model weights are available at: https://github.com/mazurowski-lab/LegSegNet

Effective prognostics and health management of modern engines relies on accurate turbine gas temperature predictions and robust uncertainty quantification to ensure reliability and safety. This paper investigates five major approaches for constructing prediction intervals -- namely the Delta method, Bayesian Monte Carlo Dropout, Bootstrap method, Lower-Upper Bound Estimation, and Mean-Variance Estimation -- as a means of capturing the uncertainty in neural network predictions of turbine gas temperature. Each approach is implemented within a unified experimental framework that employs cross-validation for hyperparameter selection, repeated train-test splits for performance robustness, and multiple metrics to evaluate both the accuracy and tightness of the intervals. In particular, Coverage Probability, Normalized Mean Prediction Interval Width, and the Coverage Width-based Criterion are measured to comprehensively assess each method's reliability and sharpness. Experiments conducted on a representative turbine gas temperature dataset reveal distinct trade-offs among the five methods in terms of interval coverage, width, and stability. These findings provide a practical guide for selecting and tuning prediction interval methods in engine health management and prognostics, ensuring both interpretability and precision in real-world applications.

Deep networks often exhibit a preference for "simple" solutions, and such a simplicity bias is widely believed to play a key role in generalization. Yet a broadly applicable, quantitative measure of simplicity remains elusive. We introduce polynomial representations as a distribution-aware, low-dimensional surrogate for neural functions: we approximate a network's predictive behavior along data-dependent interpolation paths using orthogonal polynomial bases, yielding a compact functional representation. We show that the effective degree of this representation serves as a practical simplicity metric that is predictive of generalization across tasks and architectures, and consistently outperforms existing generalization proxies such as sharpness. Finally, polynomial representations naturally yield a differentiable simplicity regularizer, which consistently improves generalization in image and text classification, fine-tuning contrastive vision-language models, and reinforcement learning.

Machine-translated benchmarks are widely used to assess the multilingual capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet translation errors in these benchmarks remain underexplored, raising concerns about the reliability and comparability of multilingual evaluation. We address two practical gaps: (i) how well automatic MQM-style error spans from LLM judges and a span-aware QE baseline (xCOMET-XXL) match expert human span annotations on benchmark translations, and (ii) how strongly translation errors (as opposed to source-side issues in the English original) explain accuracy drops on translated benchmarks. We find that span agreement is non-trivial on naturally occurring benchmark translations, and that target-side translation errors are consistently associated with measurable, percentage-point drops in translated accuracy even after controlling for English correctness and source-side anomalies.

The increasing use of automated translation quality estimation (QE) systems calls for practical, decision-oriented methods for evaluating their performance. We propose that Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis is a useful approach for this purpose. Our study shows that ROC analysis not only produces results consistent with currently prevalent methods, but also offers several important advantages, including actionable performance insights that support business decision-making.

Non-contrast computed tomography calcium scoring (CTCS) is widely recognized as an effective tool for cardiovascular risk stratification. This study aimed to develop a novel machine learning framework for predicting myocardial ischemia from routine non-contrast CTCS scans using quantitative coronary calcium assessment. This study analyzed 1,375 patients who underwent both non-contrast CTCS and regadenoson stress cardiac positron emission tomography myocardial perfusion imaging within one year at University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center. A total of 74 variables, including clinical variables, Agatston score, and calcium-omics features, were evaluated. Relevant features were identified using XGBoost with Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Predictive models were trained and evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation. Among 987 patients, 89 (9%) were positive for myocardial ischemia. The final model incorporated the Agatston score, eight calcium-omics features, and age. The proposed model achieved a precision of 98.9+/-3.0%, sensitivity of 79.2+/-8.4, and F1 score of 87.7+/-5.3%. The addition of calcium-omics features significantly improved predictive performance compared with models using clinical variables alone or clinical variables with the Agatston score (p<0.05). Interestingly, the number of calcified arteries, despite being the lowest-ranked feature based on SHAP analysis, showed the strongest association with myocardial ischemia in logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 3.63, 95% confidence interval: 2.80-4.77, p<0.00001). We developed a machine learning approach for predicting myocardial ischemia using routinely acquired non-contrast CTCS scans. Calcium-omics features provided incremental predictive value beyond conventional risk factors and Agatston scoring and may support more accessible cardiovascular risk stratification.

Aims: Coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMVD) affects approximately 40%-60% of patients with ischemia and non-obstructive coronary arteries, yet diagnosis remains challenging due to reliance on invasive functional testing or subjective Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) flow grade. The TIMI Myocardial Perfusion Frame Count (TMPFC) offers an objective, angiography-based quantitative measure of CMVD, but its clinical translation is hindered by cumbersome manual calculation and insufficient validation. This study aims to develop and validate a deep learning-powered TMPFC calculation (DL-TMPFC), enabling integration into clinical workflows. Methods and results: DL-TMPFC framework comprised two components. A stenosis detection network first excluded obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). A territory-aware segmentation network then identified perfusion territories and TMPFC calculation module automatically determined the first and last frames from angiographic sequences. The framework was validated in a cohort of 655 patients (445 of obstructive CAD, 100 of confirmed CMVD, 110 of control group) from three independent institutions. DL-TMPFC showed excellent agreement with expert manual measurements (bias: -0.93 frames; 95% LoA: -5.33 to +3.47; r =0.98). DL-TMPFC markedly enhanced clinical feasibility by fully automating TMPFC and removing observer dependence. Clinically, DL-TMPFC accurately identified CMVD across a full spectrum of coronary pathologies and captured the continuous severity of CMVD beyond binary classification, enabling quantitative risk stratification. Conclusion: DL-TMPFC enabled automatic, standardized, and accurate quantification of CMVD directly from routine angiography. By providing an automatic and objective measure, this tool provided immediate diagnostic information for timely recognition and management of CMVD in clinical practice.

There is a growing urgency to track greenhouse gasses with the resolution, precision and accuracy needed to support independent verification of $CO_2$ fluxes at local to global scales. The current generation of space-based sensors, however, only provides sparse observations in space and time. This challenge has fueled interest in the potential use of data from existing missions originally developed for other applications to infer global greenhouse gas variability. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-East), operational since 2017, provides full coverage of much of the western hemisphere at 10-minute intervals from geostationary orbit across 16 spectral channels at an approximately 2 km$^2$ spatial resolution. Here, we leverage this high spatial coverage and temporal revisit to develop Deep$XCO_2$, a single-pixel, physics-guided neural network to estimate dry-air column $CO_2$ mole fraction ($XCO_2$). Deep$XCO_2$ employs a time series of GOES-East's 16 spectral bands, ECMWF ERA5 lower tropospheric meteorology, MODIS surface reflectance, solar and satellite viewing geometry, and day of year. The network was trained on collocated GOES-East and OCO-2/OCO-3 observations. Deep$XCO_2$ is able to capture realistic $XCO_2$ variability when compared against a held-out year of OCO-2 and OCO-3 observations, and against observations from the TCCON network. We also present case studies illustrating the use of Deep$XCO_2$ to observe $XCO_2$ enhancements over urban areas and drawdown over agricultural regions. Overall, while the precision of GOES-East derived $XCO_2$ can never rival that of dedicated instruments, the unprecedented combination of contiguous geographic coverage, 10-minute temporal frequency, and multi-year record offers the potential to observe aspects of atmospheric $CO_2$ variability currently unseen from space.

We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification of solution operators associated with stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Although SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, their practical use typically requires specifying the magnitude and structure of model uncertainties that are often unknown and difficult to infer from noisy measurements. To address this challenge, we develop a stochastic operator-learning framework that learns directly from noisy data and outputs both a mean solution field and a quantification of uncertainty. The proposed method, namely the Stochastic Operator Network (SON), is constructed by combining the structure of the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) with Stochastic Neural Networks (SNNs) to model stochasticity and enable probabilistic prediction. The training procedure is carried out by minimizing a Hamiltonian-type loss and optimizing the resulting objective using the Stochastic Maximum Principle. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs under multiple uncertainty sources demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method in capturing solution structure and quantifying predictive uncertainty.

A diffusion model trained on Hamiltonian trajectories can achieve rollout MSE near $10^{-3}$, but the standard deviation of its energy over time is between 7500 and 36000 times larger than the ground-truth energy standard deviation, indicating a failure to preserve conservation laws. This gap motivates our central question of whether neural networks can learn or select globally conserved quantities from physical trajectories. We investigate this across three Hamiltonian systems: projectile motion, pendulum, and spring-mass. We use a structured $T(v)+V(q)$ energy model, a black-box Conservation Discovery Network (CDN), a polynomial CDN, and a conditional diffusion baseline. The structured network reaches $R^2 \geq 0.9999$ against analytical energy on clean data, while the black-box CDN reaches $R^2 \geq 0.996$ when trained with temporal consistency plus a small alignment loss to analytical energy at $t=0$ ($λ_{\mathrm{align}}=0.2$). With $λ_{\mathrm{align}}=0$, CDN Pearson $R^2$ collapses on pendulum and spring-mass ($< 10^{-3}$), showing that temporal consistency alone is not enough to reliably identify the true energy. Under $1\%$ additive Gaussian noise, the CDN outperforms the structured model on the projectile and spring-mass systems, suggesting that the CDN may be more robust to noisy inputs in this setting. However, the polynomial CDN is sensitive to training configuration: it achieves $R^2=0.78$ under a short training schedule on the pendulum system, but reaches $R^2=0.9998$ with more training time and data, regardless of whether noise is added.

Premature closure, or committing to a conclusion before sufficient information is available, is a recognized contributor to diagnostic error but remains underexamined in large language models (LLMs). We define LLM premature closure as inappropriate commitment under uncertainty: providing an answer, recommendation, or clinical guidance when the safer response would be clarification, abstention, escalation, or refusal. We evaluated five frontier LLMs across structured and open-ended medical tasks. In MedQA (n = 500) and AfriMed-QA (n = 490) questions where the correct choice had been removed, models still selected an answer at high rates, with baseline false-action rates of 55-81% and 53-82%, respectively. In open-ended evaluation, models gave inappropriate answers on an average of 30% of 861 HealthBench questions and 78% of 191 physician-authored adversarial queries. Safety-oriented prompting reduced premature closure across models, but residual failure persisted, highlighting the need to evaluate whether medical LLMs know when not to answer.

Cerebral Palsy (CP) is a neurological disorder of movement and the most common cause of lifelong physical disability in childhood. Approximately 75% of children with CP are ambulatory, and accurate gait assessment is central to preserving walking function, which deteriorates by mid-adulthood in a quarter to half of adults with CP. The Rodda and Graham classification system quantifies sagittal-plane gait deviations using ankle and knee z-scores derived from 3D Instrumented Gait Analysis (3D-IGA), but 3D-IGA is expensive and limited to specialized centers, while observational assessment shows only moderate inter-rater agreement. We developed a markerless gait analysis pipeline that quantifies Rodda and Graham knee and ankle z-scores directly from single-view clinical gait videos. Across 1,058 bilateral limb samples from 529 trials of 152 children (88 male, 63 female; age 12.1 $\pm$ 4.0 years; 60 distinct primary diagnoses, cerebral palsy the most common at $n=54$), the sagittal-view model achieved $R^2 = 0.80 \pm 0.02$ and CCC $= 0.89 \pm 0.02$ for knee z-scores and $R^2 = 0.57 \pm 0.02$ and CCC $= 0.72 \pm 0.02$ for ankle z-scores against 3D-IGA. Binary screening for excess knee flexion achieves AUROC $= 0.88$, correctly identifying 83% of affected children, and applying Rodda and Graham rules yields $43 \pm 1$% 7-class accuracy with macro-AUROC $= 0.78 \pm 0.01$, ankle prediction error remaining the primary bottleneck. Beyond cross-sectional screening, continuous z-scores support longitudinal trajectory tracking across visits, providing a quantitative substrate for monitoring disease progression and treatment response unavailable from observational scales. These results demonstrate the feasibility of video-based z-score estimation, excess-flexion screening, and longitudinal trajectory tracking as a path toward scalable, objective gait assessment in low-resource clinical settings.

In causal inference, confounders are variables that influence both treatment decisions and outcomes. However, unlike as in randomized clinical trials, the treatment assignment mechanism in observational studies is not known, and it is thus unclear which covariates act as confounders. Here, we aim to generate insight for causal inference and answer: which of the observed covariates act as confounders? We introduce ConfoundingSHAP, a Shapley-based method for attributing confounding strength to individual covariates. Our contributions are twofold. First, we propose a Shapley game targeted to infer the confounding strength of the covariates. Our resulting Shapley values differ from the standard applications of SHAP explanations on causal targets, such as understanding treatment effect heterogeneity, which are ill-suited for our task. Second, as our task requires evaluating the value function over many adjustment sets, we provide a scalable TabPFN-based estimation that avoids exhaustive refitting. We demonstrate the practical value across various datasets, where ConfoundingSHAP provides informative explanations of which observed covariates drive confounding and thereby helps to provide more insight for causal inference in practice.

User simulators are increasingly leveraged to build interactive AI assistants, yet how to measure the quality of these simulators remains an open question. In this work, we show how simulator quality can be quantified in terms of its downstream utility: how an LLM assistant trained with this user simulator performs in the wild when interacting with real humans. In a controlled experiment where only the user simulator varies, we train LLM assistants via reinforcement learning against a spectrum of simulators, from an LLM prompted to role-play a user to one fine-tuned on human utterances from WildChat. As evaluation, we measure pairwise win rates in a user study with 283 participants and on WildBench, a benchmark derived from real human--AI conversations. Training against the role-playing LLM yields an assistant statistically indistinguishable from the initial assistant in our user study (51% win rate), whereas training against the fine-tuned simulator yields significant gains (58% over the initial and 57% over the one trained against role-playing). Closer inspection reveals three further patterns: methods for making role-playing LLMs more realistic (e.g., persona conditioning) improve trained assistants but do not close the gap to the fine-tuned simulator; scaling the simulator's model size benefits the fine-tuned simulator but yields no gain for role-playing ones; and assistants trained against role-playing simulators fail to generalize when paired with other simulators at test time, while the one trained against fine-tuned simulator does. Together, these results argue for grounding user simulators in real human behavior and measuring their quality by their downstream effect on real users.

The ability to derive precise spatial and physical insights is a cornerstone of vision-language models (VLMs), yet their poor performances in related spatial intelligence tasks such as physical reasoning remain a fundamental barrier. The community critically lacks a scientific analysis revealing whether VLMs faithfully reach answers or plausibly make guesses. This work aims to provide a fundamental understanding of how VLMs perceive the physical world, and utilize physical laws, while assessing the reliability of model confidence. We propose NICE and FACT, a dual-diagnostic paradigm that explicitly decomposes quantitative reasoning for kinematic physics: FACT diagnoses visual fidelity, physical law comprehension, and temporal grounding. NICE studies our novel neighborhood-informed calibration method and novel metrics to evaluate and calibrate confidence reliability. Evaluated across 6 latest state-of-the-art VLMs, we uncover that models fail to identify visual preconditions or utilize necessary physical laws to reach answers. This work highlights and establishes a standardized diagnostic paradigm to guide the development of faithful, physically-grounded VLMs.

Modern AI systems are being deployed in complex domains such as medicine, science, and law, where it is important that they not only produce correct answers, but also represent and update uncertain beliefs about the world as new evidence arrives. We introduce the novel technique of studying LLMs as information processing rules and utilize the information processing gap to study the internal (in)consistencies of how LLMs update their probabilistic beliefs from evidence. Our extensive experiments evaluate multiple approaches in which LLMs can incorporate evidence into their beliefs. Some of these approaches produce (nearly) Bayesian updates; others seem to use a learned heuristic. Surprisingly, the non-Bayesian heuristic updates often outperform exact Bayesian computation in terms of downstream task performance -- indicating the LLMs' probabilistic models of the world are misspecified. Lastly, we show how our measure can provide diagnostics to identify issues with LLM-powered inferential systems.