Spatiotemporal

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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Period ending 2026-09-07

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342 papers

Latest in Spatiotemporal

Jul 28, 2026cs.CV

Schrödinger's Cat: Probabilistic Representation and Prediction of Potential Scene Kinematics

Predicting how a scene may evolve from partial observations requires reasoning about multiple possible futures rather than committing to a single trajectory. Existing approaches either generate appearance-dominated video predictions or sample a small number of trajectories without explicitly modeling the distribution of possible motion. We introduce Goal-Aware Representations of Future kInEmatic Latent Distributions (GARFIELD), a probabilistic model of scene kinematics that learns a structured spatio-temporal latent representation of the distribution over possible futures given an image and optional spatio-temporally sparse constraints. The same latent representation enables both joint sampling of all trajectories and direct access to the underlying motion distribution through an efficient deterministic density decoder. As a result, uncertainty about future motion can be localized to specific scene elements and timesteps and progressively refined through additional constraints. Experiments demonstrate strong motion planning performance competitive with large video generation models while sampling trajectories 97×97\times faster. Our method further estimates motion densities two orders of magnitude faster than Monte-Carlo sampling from motion generation models, enabling interactive exploration and uncertainty-aware planning.
Timy Phan, Jannik Wiese, Björn Ommer
Jul 28, 2026cs.LG

GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling

Regional surveillance data reflect local transmission, reporting, seeding, and external infection pressure, which are difficult to identify separately. We introduce GeoID-PINN, a physics-informed neural network (PINN) for susceptible-infectious-recovered-deceased (SIRD) dynamics. The model represents spatial dependence with a row-stochastic source-composition matrix whose rows assign nonnegative source weights that sum to one. We regularize this matrix toward a spatial prior constructed from distance, adjacency, commuting, or lead-lag information. In a four-region simulation with known truth, a compatible distance prior gives source-composition error 0.099. The error rises to 0.159 without regularization and 0.577 under a strongly misspecified prior, while trajectory fit and transmission-scale estimates remain similar. Accurate trajectories therefore do not guarantee recovery of the regional dependence structure. We also evaluate GeoID-PINN retrospectively using COVID-19 data from 64 Louisiana counties. Relative to an autoregressive negative-binomial baseline, Forecast-Trained Geo-PINN reduces mean squared error (MSE) from 32,957 to 11,468 and mean absolute error (MAE) from 70.60 to 57.73. The baseline has lower negative log likelihood (NLL), 5.158 versus 5.346, indicating better distributional fit but worse point accuracy. In a controlled 15-county comparison, county adjacency reduces MSE by 6.85 percent and MAE by 3.1 percent. Similar performance across plausible priors supports structured regularization but not unique edge recovery. These results require prior-sensitivity and observation-model checks before interpretation.
Weixiong Hua, Fan Bu
Jul 27, 2026cs.RO

Hybrid Artificial Potential Fields and Spatio-Temporal Transformers for Real-Time AUV Path Planning

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) operate in complex, unstructured environments where efficient and safe path planning is critical for mission success and energy conservation. This paper presents a comprehensive comparative evaluation of thirteen path planning algorithms, ranging from classical graph-search methods (A*, Dijkstra) and sampling-based approaches (RRT*) to metaheuristics (PSO, GA, ACO, BCO) and learning-based architectures. Special emphasis is placed on a proposed hybrid approach combining Artificial Potential Fields (APF) with a Spatio-Temporal (ST) Transformer. Evaluated across five navigation scenarios on high-resolution underwater terrain maps, all algorithms achieved 100% task completion; however, significant trade-offs emerged in path optimality, collision avoidance, and computational load. The Hybrid APF + ST-Transformer demonstrated superior balanced performance, achieving the shortest average path length (943.15 units), a low collision rate (0.031), and efficient computation time (0.96 s), outperforming standalone learning models, which required fallback mechanisms and classical methods that incurred higher latency. While classical algorithms guaranteed collision-free paths, their excessive path lengths and processing times render them less suitable for dynamic underwater operations. Conversely, metaheuristic approaches introduced trajectory complexity unsuitable for strict energy constraints. Based on these findings, the Hybrid APF + ST framework is recommended as a principal approach for real-time AUV navigation, offering a robust solution that harmonizes reactive obstacle avoidance with global path optimality in resource-constrained underwater systems.
Khadija Rais, Abdelmadjid Benmachiche, Imene Soualmia
Jul 27, 2026cs.CV

Spatio-Temporal Conditional Denoising Transformer for Modality-Missing RGBT Tracking

Missing modalities in RGBT tracking often lead to incomplete and unstable multimodal feature representations that greatly degrade the performance. Existing methods typically attempt to recover missing modalities from available ones, but the quality of data generated in challenging scenarios might be unsatisfactory. In addition, current approaches exhibit limited flexibility in processing both missing and complete data. To overcome these limitations, we propose a Spatio-temporal Conditional Denoising Transformer (SCDT), which integrates the spatial cues and the temporal context to adaptively perform information reconstruction of missing modalities and feature enhancement of weak modalities in a unified framework, for robust modality-missing RGBT tracking. In particular, SCDT leverages the short-term temporal cues from recent historical frames to capture the fine-grained temporal correlations and the long-term temporal cues encoding modality evolution to capture the global context. By jointly exploiting long short-term temporal contexts as the conditions, SCDT progressively guides noisy features of available modalities to learn reliable and temporally consistent multimodal representations. Furthermore, SCDT introduces a noisemodulated adaptation mechanism that dynamically adjusts its behavior according to the modal availability, enabling a single framework to unify feature learning under both modality-missing and complete scenarios without changing the architecture or parameters. Extensive experiments on three public benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The code is available here.
Andong Lu, Ziyi Zha, Jiandong Jin +4
Jul 27, 2026cs.CV

InterOCF: Spatio-Temporal 2D-3D Interaction for Camera-Only 4D Occupancy Forecasting

Camera-only 4D occupancy forecasting enables autonomous vehicles to predict future 3D semantic scenes solely from historical multi-view images, which is critical for driving safety. Even though current methods have achieved good performance, the strong spatial-temporal modeling between the input multi-view frames is still underexplored, which limits the performance of those methods in future 4D forecasting. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework, InterOCF, for 4D occupancy forecasting that jointly models temporal dynamics in both 3D voxel-based representations and multi-view segmentation sequences, while explicitly incorporating feature interaction between the 2D and 3D branches. Our framework incorporates three core components: 1) A 3D Spatio-Temporal (3DST) module that learns volumetric dynamics from historical voxel states to predict future voxel states; 2) A 2D Spatio-Temporal (2DST) module employing an auxiliary multi-view temporal segmentation forecasting task to enhance temporal semantic dynamics; 3) A Spatio-Temporal Interaction Modeling (STIM) module that enables feature interaction between 2D and 3D representations. Experiments on the nuScenes, Lyft-Level5, and nuScenes-Occupancy datasets show that InterOCF consistently outperforms existing baseline approaches.
Qi Zhang, Xinquan Yu, Kaiyi Zhang +1
Jul 27, 2026cs.LG

Every Client Is an Environment: Federated De-confounding for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Federated learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for spatio-temporal forecasting (STF), enabling collaborative model training without sharing raw observations. Existing federated STF methods primarily regard cross-client heterogeneity as an optimization challenge and mitigate it through personalized approaches. However, such heterogeneity fundamentally stems from diverse \emph{environmental conditions}, and these methods capture environment-specific forecasting patterns, hardly generalizing under environmental shifts. Our key insight is that the environmental diversity across federated clients should be exploited, as they provide \emph{complementary observations of the same underlying spatio-temporal system}. Based on this insight, we propose \method, a novel federated de-confounding framework that \textbf{treats clients as distinct causal environments}. \method leverages the client heterogeneity as distributed environmental evidence and learns a global prototype codebook to capture shared environmental regimes. We further derive a theoretical federated de-confounding bound that is linearly controlled by the averaged confounding strength. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \method consistently outperforms federated baselines, while providing transferable, interpretable, and communication-efficient environmental representations.
Qingxiang Liu, Anqi Liang, Heng Wang +1
Jul 26, 2026cs.RO

Anticipatory Risk-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Safe Flight Through Dynamic Clutter

Safe quadrotor navigation in cluttered and dynamic environments depends not only on instantaneous geometric perception, but more critically on anticipating collision risks induced by relative motion. Conventional modular pipelines frequently suffer from perception latency, while end-to-end learning methods relying on implicit scalar rewards often struggle to extract reliable spatio-temporal features without physics-grounded supervision. To address this, we propose an anticipatory risk-guided reinforcement learning framework. Leveraging privileged simulator states, we construct a directionally aligned future collision risk map based on the Closest Point of Approach (CPA). Through an asymmetric actor-critic architecture, the network is trained to self-predict this structured risk, which explicitly guides the visual policy during deployment. A lightweight spatio-temporal encoder extracts motion cues directly from onboard depth sequences, bypassing explicit object tracking or optical flow estimation. Extensive simulated and real-world experiments demonstrate that our method effectively improves safety margins and flight efficiency in dense dynamic clutters compared to existing baselines. Furthermore, the learned policy achieves robust zero-shot Sim-to-Real transfer on a physical quadrotor, relying purely on abstracted spatio-temporal depth sequences and its self-predicted risk priors, validating the effectiveness of our approach and its robust generalization from simulation to reality.
Yuchao Mei, Guohao Zhang, Luxia Ai +2
Jul 26, 2026cs.SI

GTIN: A Unified Framework for Joint Event and Time Prediction in Temporal Graphs

Temporal graphs are increasingly used to model dynamic systems in diverse domains such as social networks, financial networks, and traffic networks. Predicting both what the next event will be and when it will occur in these systems is crucial for understanding and anticipating complex behaviors, but has not been studied much. To address this gap, we propose a unified mathematical framework capable of capturing varying degrees of complexity across temporal graphs. Our framework is flexible and expressive enough to accommodate a wide range of network structures and temporal dynamics. Building upon this analysis, we introduce our novel approach for jointly predicting the next event and its occurrence time. Empirical evaluations across multiple datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing techniques, particularly in scenarios involving irregular event patterns and complex temporal dependencies. These findings highlight the potential of our framework as a robust foundation for future research in temporal event prediction.
Mohammad Ostadmohammadi, Sepehr Kazemi, Hamid R. Rabiee
Jul 25, 2026cs.AI

Structure over Depth: A Single-Block Spatio-Temporal Transformer for Multi-Entity Reasoning

Modeling multi-entity temporal data requires capturing dependencies across entities, time, and their interactions. Transformer-based approaches perform well but often rely on deep stacks of layers to learn these heterogeneous dependencies implicitly, increasing computational cost. We revisit this problem from a structural perspective and decompose multi-entity temporal dynamics into three interaction types: spatial interactions among entities, temporal interactions across time, and cross interactions coupling the two domains. We propose a structured spatio-temporal transformer block that explicitly models all three within a single stage. It uses parallel spatial and temporal self-attention, followed by bidirectional cross-attention, and combines the outputs through learnable gated fusion. By directly encoding these complementary views, the model reduces the need for deep stacking. We evaluate the approach on video-based group activity recognition, skeleton-based human interaction analysis, and wearable sensor-based activity recognition. Despite its simplicity, the single structured Transformer block matches or outperforms deeper architectures with only 1.76M parameters. The results suggest that depth in prior models partly compensates for implicit and entangled interaction modeling, whereas explicit factorization offers a more efficient and transparent alternative. More broadly, this work supports a structure-first design principle: expressive multi-entity temporal reasoning can emerge by exposing interaction structure rather than relying on depth.
Narthana Sivalingam, Santhirarajah Sivasthigan, Buddhi Wijenayake +3
Jul 24, 2026cs.LG

Spatial Prediction of Soil Microplastics and Organic Matter Using Graph Attention Networks

Accurate estimation of soil microplastics and organic matter is essential to assess ecosystem health and support sustainable land use. This study presents a graph-based deep learning approach using Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to model spatial dependencies among 91 georeferenced soil samples. By incorporating spatial coordinates, soil properties, and land use data, a two-layer GAT architecture was developed to capture local interactions. The final model showed strong performance, achieving RMSEs of 625.06 (R2=0.87R^2 = 0.87) for microplastics and 0.43 (R2=0.91R^2 = 0.91) for organic matter. However, cross-validation results revealed limited generalization, probably due to the small sample size and sparse graph structure. These findings demonstrate the potential of GATs for spatial soil prediction and underscore the need for dense datasets and improved graph connectivity.
Anik Dev Nath, Md Al Amin, Bikash Kumar Paul
Jul 24, 2026stat.ML

Variational Low-rank Tensor Decomposition for Multisubject Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

Modeling shared and subject-specific structure in multisubject spatiotemporal data remains challenging, particularly in neuroimaging, where both spatial and temporal patterns exhibit rich variability across subjects. Existing matrix and tensor decompositions provide interpretable factorizations, but rely on fixed multilinear structures or coupling schemes that may limit their flexibility in capturing complex variability. In this work, we introduce a spatiotemporal variational tensor decomposition (ST-VTD) framework that combines a tensor factorization generative model with structured priors to jointly represent spatial maps and temporal dynamics. Spatial factors are regularized to promote a low-rank structure inspired by the LL1 decomposition, while temporal factors are modeled using a learned Long short-term memory (LSTM)-based prior, enabling flexible and adaptive dynamics. Posterior inference is performed using an amortized variational formulation by unrolling iterations of an optimization algorithm, leading to an interpretable and parameter-efficient architecture. The proposed inference framework employs a warm-start strategy based on group independent component analysis, which we found to improve optimization performance. Experiments on a realistic synthetic functional MRI (fMRI) dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves latent factor recovery compared with representative classical and probabilistic decomposition benchmarks.
Laura M. Montaldo, Ricardo A. Borsoi, Sebastian Miron +1
Jul 23, 2026cs.CV

T-STAR: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Spatio-Temporal Panoptic Scene Graph Generation in Satellite Video

Structured understanding of satellite video is essential for advancing dynamic geospatial scene analysis from low-level perception to high-level cognition. To move beyond object-centric perception, this paper introduces spatio-temporal panoptic scene graph generation (TPSG) in satellite video as a new benchmark task. TPSG aims to generate a structured graph composed of a set of triplets <subject, relationship, object> with explicit temporal spans, thereby describing dynamic geospatial scenes by jointly modeling identity-consistent instance masks and spatio-temporal relationships among panoptic scene elements. However, there is still no dedicated dataset for TPSG in satellite video. Moreover, TPSG in satellite video is intrinsically challenging, as objects are often small and weakly textured, cross-frame association is easily disrupted by occlusion and background clutter, and relationship semantics are highly coupled with spatial structure and temporal evolution. Consequently, TPSG models developed for natural videos are not directly applicable to satellite video. This paper presents T-STAR, a large-scale benchmark dataset for TPSG in satellite video, comprising over 1.1 million instance masks and over 3.8 million spatio-temporal triplets across 39 fine-grained object categories and 70 fine-grained relationship categories. To enable TPSG in satellite video, we propose a unified framework to enhance cross-frame instance consistency and spatio-temporal relationship prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of T-STAR and the effectiveness of the proposed framework, establishing a strong benchmark for future research on structured satellite video understanding. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/linlin-dev/T-STAR.
Linlin Wang, Xue Yang, Zhihuang Zhou +3
Jul 23, 2026cs.AI

Commitment To Cooperation With Self-Negotiated Contracts

As AI agents operate with increasing autonomy in a multi-agent world, they will need to learn to cooperate with other agents and with humans to generate mutual benefits. However, cooperation is a challenge because the costs of cooperation are often incurred early on, but the benefits are only realized later, creating an incentive to defect. How can AI agents cooperate with commitment? Here, we draw on inspiration from legal institutions and contracting that human societies have used to solve principal-agent problems of this kind. Contracts provide observable representations of agreements that enable credible commitments through the enforcement of terms. We study the role of contract-based cooperation using LLM-based agents in \CT, a spatial-temporal game that combines bargaining with navigation towards a goal. We study a suite of contract representations that range from formal contracts that compile to code to natural contracts that require reinterpretation. We evaluate agents with a range of LLM backbones using different sizes and providers. We find that self-negotiated contracts can improve cooperative outcomes beyond what is possible with regular trading.
Tim Wyse, Kaitlin Bustos, Yulia Volkova +1
Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

CASC: Causal Adversarial Subspace Clustering for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Data

Deep subspace clustering plays a critical role in applications involving multivariate spatiotemporal data, such as sea ice monitoring, disease spread analysis, and tracking neuro-degeneration over time. Despite recent advances, existing methods primarily rely on geometric self-expressiveness, assume static subspace structures, and often fail to capture causal dependencies, local spatial interactions, and long-range temporal dynamics inherent in complex spatiotemporal systems. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Causal Adversarial Subspace Clustering (CASC) framework for discovering evolving latent regimes in high-dimensional spatiotemporal data. CASC integrates a U-Net-inspired deep adversarial clustering architecture with stacked FAConvLSTM layers to preserve spatial and temporal structure while learning robust latent representations. A graph attention transformer-based self-expressive network is introduced to jointly model local spatial relationships, global dependencies, and long-range temporal interactions. Furthermore, we propose two new learning objectives: (1) a Causal Subspace Preservation Loss that aligns self-expression coefficients with latent causal relationships, encouraging clusters to reflect underlying causal processes rather than simple feature similarity, and (2) a Dynamic Temporal Subspace Evolution Loss that captures evolving subspace structures and temporal regime transitions in nonstationary environments. Together, these components transform deep subspace clustering from a correlation-driven paradigm into a causal-temporal regime discovery framework.
Francis Ndikum Nji, Vandana Janeja, Jianwu Wang
Jul 23, 2026cs.AI

From Scalars to Time Series: Rethinking Implicit Neural Representations for Time-Varying Volumetric Data

Implicit neural representations (INRs) for time-varying volumetric data are typically trained using dense sampling over spatiotemporal coordinates, where each observation corresponds to a single point in space and time. This coordinate-wise formulation requires extensive sampling during optimization, leading to high computational cost and inefficient use of temporal structure. In this work, we revisit this design choice and show that dense spatiotemporal sampling is not necessary for learning time-varying fields. Instead, we represent the data as a collection of spatially indexed time series and train INRs using sequence-level supervision over each spatial location, rather than coordinate-wise scalar samples. This reformulation eliminates the need for dense spatiotemporal sampling and instead learns each spatial location from its full temporal evolution in a structured manner. We demonstrate that this representation is compatible with a range of existing INR architectures and consistently improves reconstruction quality, while significantly reducing training cost. Furthermore, we show that this formulation can be combined with mixture-of-experts architectures, and that our MoE instantiation further improves reconstruction quality compared to both the base reformulation and existing MoE-based INR methods, providing a stronger capacity allocation under heterogeneous temporal dynamics.
Weihan Zhang, Xuan Zhao, Yenwen Peng +2
Jul 22, 2026cs.LG

STeMP: Spatio-Temporal Modelling Protocol

Spatio-temporal machine-learning modelling is an important tool in environmental research. However, machine-learning models are highly sensitive to both the characteristics of the training data, such as its distribution, and methodological choices, including the cross-validation strategy. Each decision has impact and implications on the model itself as well as the estimation of the model quality and applicability for certain purposes. Taking into account the large role of machine-learning based maps of the environment in science and their transfer into practice, transparent reporting of spatio-temporal models, ideally using standardized model protocols, is essential to enable trust, transparency and comparability. However, such protocols are currently lacking for spatio-temporal modelling. We propose STeMP (Spatio-Temporal Modelling Protocol) to fill this gap by serving two purposes: standardized reporting to understand the model functioning as well as providing guidance during the modelling process by pointing at critical decisions and parameters. The protocol is structured in three sections: Overview, Model and Prediction. The Overview section contains metadata, while the Model and Prediction sections go into detail, describing predictors, evaluation and software, and further relevant elements of the modelling workflow. The protocol definition is hosted on GitHub and accompanied by an R-package (https://github.com/LOEK-RS/STeMP). The R-package contains a web application that can be used to fill the protocol either manually or in a semi-automated way from provided modelling objects. Warnings are returned from the protocol when common pitfalls are encountered, which may help authors as a guide through the modelling process but also support reviewers in the assessment of modelling studies. Via GitHub, incorporation of contributions and feedback from the community is encouraged.
Jan Linnenbrink, Jakub Nowosad, Marvin Ludwig +4
Jul 22, 2026cs.LG

AI-Driven Surrogate Models for Predicting Electrode-Scale Discharge Behavior in Lithium-Ion Batteries

Physics-based simulations are essential for understanding the electrode-scale discharge behavior of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) but suffer from prohibitive computational costs. To address this, we introduce a novel deep learning surrogate pipeline based on the Swin3D Transformer to predict spatiotemporal discharge dynamics directly from volumetric data. Our approach integrates two key innovations: Gaussian Positional Encoding (GPE), which enhances spatial feature representation by adapting to the complex geometry of electrode microstructures, and a specialized Temporal Encoding module to capture non-linear timeseries evolution. Experimental validation on an Electrochemical Simulation (ES) dataset demonstrates that our pipeline significantly outperforms state-of-the-art point cloud baselines in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the proposed method reduces the computational overhead by orders of magnitude, providing a scalable and efficient framework for high-throughput battery design and optimization.
Mengda Xing, Jean-Marie Lagniez, Alejandro Franco
Jul 22, 2026cs.CV

Efficient Tracking and Understanding Object Transformations

Tracking objects through state transformations is essential for understanding real-world dynamics. However, existing methods are computationally expensive. TubeletGraph recently showed impressive capabilities, but its inference cost (~4.44.4 seconds per object-frame on VOST) precludes any real-time deployment possibilities. We observe that TubeletGraph's overhead arises from building a spatiotemporal partition of the input video: (1) entity segmentation is computed densely for every frame regardless of whether a transformation occurs, and (2) every entity in the scene is tracked, scaling cost with scene complexity rather than the number of transformations of interest. To address both, we propose FluxGraph, a reactive variant that uses SAM2's internal multi-mask disagreement as a lightweight trigger for transformation detection, and removes the need for tracking all entities in the given video. FluxGraph is ~3.3×3.3\times faster than TubeletGraph on VOST while improving tracking performance and preserving state graph quality. Furthermore, we also observe consistent speedups of 3.710.7×3.7-10.7\times across VSCOS, M3^3-VOS, and DAVIS17 while maintaining performance. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/YihongSun/FluxGraph.
Yihong Sun, Bharath Hariharan
Jul 21, 2026cs.CV

IGGT4D: Streaming 4D Instance-Grounded Geometry Transformer

Real-world spatial intelligence requires agents to understand scenes from continuous video streams, where objects move, persist, disappear, and reappear over time. While recent spatial foundation models have enabled generalizable feed-forward 3D reconstruction, most streaming methods remain geometry-centric and lack temporally consistent object-level understanding. Meanwhile, existing semantic reconstruction and 3D-aware vision-language methods largely rely on externally extracted 2D semantic cues or loosely coupled geometry inputs, limiting unified geometry-instance learning in long dynamic scenes. In this paper, we propose IGGT4D, a streaming instance-grounded geometry Transformer for online 4D scene understanding. IGGT4D processes video frames sequentially, reuses historical context through causal spatial-temporal modeling, and incrementally updates a unified representation of camera motion, geometry, and object identity. This enables long-sequence feed-forward reconstruction with geometry-instance consistency in dynamic environments. To address the lack of high-quality 4D supervision, we further construct InsScene4D-147K, a large-scale dataset spanning real/synthetic and static/dynamic scenes, with RGB images, depth, poses, and temporally consistent instance masks generated by an automated geometry-guided annotation pipeline. Experiments on 3D reconstruction, pose estimation, instance spatial tracking, and open-vocabulary segmentation demonstrate that IGGT4D outperforms existing streaming baselines while maintaining scalable online inference for long dynamic sequences.
Zhengyu Zou, Hao Li, Kuixuan Jiao +7
Jul 21, 2026eess.SY

STL-GCS: A Planner-Controller Framework for Signal Temporal Logic via Graphs of Time-varying Convex Sets

We present a unified trajectory planning and control framework for the satisfaction of Signal Temporal Logic (STL) specifications defined over convex predicates. At the planning layer, STL tasks are encoded as time-varying convex sets in configuration space, specifically designed so that forward invariance of the system with respect to these sets implies satisfaction of the specification with a prescribed robustness margin. This representation is then lifted to the joint time--configuration space and combined with the Graphs of Convex Sets (GCS) framework, yielding a shortest-path formulation of the planning problem over convex spatio-temporal sets. Trajectories are parameterized by B-splines, which enable continuous-time enforcement of STL satisfaction, collision avoidance, and smoothness constraints. At the control layer, the same time-varying sets used for planning are exploited to design a feedback controller that tracks the planned trajectory while prioritizing satisfaction of the STL specification during execution in the presence of tracking errors and model mismatch. We validate the proposed approach in simulation and in real-world experiments on space robotic platforms.
Nicola De Carli, Gregorio Marchesini, Dimos V. Dimarogonas
Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

MambaLSTM: A Spatio-Temporal Framework for Enhanced Traffic Accident Risk Prediction

In traffic accident risk prediction, most studies overlook the extra noise that could be incorporated when fusing temporal features into spatial features, and some models struggle to capture global correlations among spatial regions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel traffic accident risk prediction framework named MambaLSTM. First, we develop a squeeze-and-excitation temporal feature fusion module to integrate temporal information without compromising spatio-temporal integrity. Second, we introduce a new patch embedding module for effectively capturing semantic relationships among spatially adjacent regions. Additionally, we introduce a Mamba block based on state-space models to model global spatial semantics in urban regions. Finally, we propose a MambaLSTM unit to efficiently capture long- and short-term temporal dependencies for identifying dynamic risk patterns. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the proposed model's superiority over state-of-the-art methods. The code is released at https://github.com/Zhenzovo/MambaLSTM.
Zhen Yu, Yachao Yuan, Zixiang Peng +2
Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

EA-RMENet -- Path Loss Prediction in Urban Environments using Deep Learning

Accurate path loss prediction is a critical component of wireless network planning. Current path loss prediction methods typically struggle to balance the trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. This paper proposes the Efficient Attention Radio Map Estimation Network (EA-RMENet) which is an image data-driven, deep learning (DL) model designed for radio map estimation (RME). EA-RMENet uses a U-Net framework with an EfficientNetB5 encoder, Attention Gated (AG) skip connections, and Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling (ASPP). The EfficientNet encoder uses compound scaling to balance accuracy and efficiency. AG skip connections suppress irrelevant features, and the ASPP captures a multi-scale context. The model has a test prediction RMSE of 0.0334 on the RadioMapSeer3D dataset with an inference time of 0.022 seconds/sample. In the ICASSP 2023 Radio Map Prediction Challenge, the model ranks third with a competitive RMSE of 0.0406 this highlights the models potential for real-world RME.
Jonathan O'Shea, Conor Brennan
Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Unsteady Airfoil Aerodynamics Using Augmented Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equations with Exogenous Controls

Unsteady aerodynamic phenomena, such as gusts, turbulence, and fluid-structure interactions affect an aircraft during flight. For design, optimisation and certification, it is indispensable to quantify such unsteady aerodynamic effects. Industry-standard computational fluid dynamics methods, such as solving the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations or the linearized frequency domain method, are either computationally expensive or restricted by assumptions like linearity. Once trained, machine learning methods are capable of computing non-linear relationships very fast, making them suitable as surrogate models. By autoregressively applying graph neural networks (GNNs), operating on a discretised spatial domain, spatio-temporal predictions can be made. However, autoregressive GNNs suffer from error accumulation leading to unstable rollouts over time. Here we show that combining GNNs with augmented Neural Ordinary Differential Equations yields temporally stable predictions of the surface forces on a pitching airfoil. We found that our approach, called GNODE, based on Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, provides temporally more stable, spatially smoother, and overall more accurate results than an autoregressive GNN baseline. Tests are conducted on a dataset consisting of a simulations of a pitching airfoil, including transonic shocks, transient behaviour and dynamic non-linearities. Augmenting GNODEs with additional latent dimensions improves the expressivity and accuracy by capturing underlying history effects. The developed method demonstrates an approach that is suitable to model non-linear spatio-temporal systems with exogenous inputs.
Henrik Lange, Reik Thormann, Philipp Bekemeyer
Jul 17, 2026cs.CV

Examining the Associations between Visual and Non-Visual Elements and Cyclists' Route Choices for Various Trip Purposes

Understanding cyclist preferences for the characteristics of the built environment is important in promoting sustainable urban transportation and active mobility. Despite previous studies on cyclists' route choices, the influence of visual and non-visual factors on these choices for different trip purposes remains unclear; thus, this paper fills this gap through a data-driven case study in Montreal, Canada. Non-visual factors include socioeconomic factors and two-dimensional environments, while visual factors involve visual perception during cycling and are computed using street view images. The study consists of two parts: one part analyzes spatiotemporal information to explore the non-visual factors between the start and end points of cycling trips, and the other part investigates the discrepancies in distributions of these factors between the shortest path and the actual one. The findings reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics that influence active riding choices, such as increased greenery and lower levels of motorization. These insights can inform the planning of street networks and the development of infrastructure to improve the use of active transportation.
Heyang Hua, Koichi Ito, Filip Biljecki
Jul 16, 2026cs.CV

VideoChat3: Fully Open Video MLLM for Efficient and Generalist Video Understanding

Recent advances in video understanding have spanned motion, long video, and streaming interaction, driving this field toward real-world applications. Despite this progress, current open-source models remain limited in several ways. They often struggle to generalize across diverse video types, making them effective only in specific domains. High computational demands further restrict their efficiency and scalability. Moreover, most models are only partially open, with key components such as training code, strategy, or datasets unavailable, which hinders reproducibility and slows community-driven development. To address these issues, we introduce VideoChat3, a fully open, efficient, and generalist video-centric MLLM. VideoChat3 advances video understanding through two complementary designs. For efficiency, we introduce Inflated 3D Vision Transformer (I3D-ViT) and Adaptive Frame Resolution for Streaming Video Perception, which enables efficient spatiotemporal representation and reduces the cost of processing video inputs during training and inference. For effectiveness, we develop a scalable video data synthesis pipeline that curates three diverse, high-quality training datasets: VideoChat3-Academic2M, VideoChat3-LV116K, and VideoChat3-OL617K, covering general, long-form, and streaming video scenarios, improving the model's generalization across domains. By integrating these designs, VideoChat3 achieves a rare balance of broad generalization and computational efficiency. Experiments across general, long-form, and streaming benchmarks demonstrate that VideoChat3 surpasses prior open-source models with equal or larger parameter counts with only 4B parameters and higher efficiency.
Xinhao Li, Yuhan Zhu, Xiangyu Zeng +24
Jul 16, 2026cs.CV

Still image and spatial-temporal tomato data enabling detection, segmentation, tracking, and video-instance segmentation using strong and weak labels

In this manuscript we release two datasets for visual sensing of tomato plants grown in commercial-like settings and acquired using a robot. The first is BUTom21 which consists of still images and manual annotations. The second is BUTom-ST21 which consists of video-based data and semi-automated annotations through AI-based methods, referred to as pseudo-labels. In both cases, we provide pixel-level labels for the ripeness of the fruit. The aim is to provide the research community a challenging set of real-world imagery to explore methods to sense and estimate the state of tomato plants and their fruit, which is an important horticultural crop. Importantly, the spatial-temporal dataset provides individual fruit count and ripeness information enabling researchers to push the boundaries of field-based phenotyping.
Michael Halstead, Esra Guclu, Mohamed Farag +7
Jul 15, 2026cs.CV

VGIF-Score: Interpretable and Diagnostic Evaluation of Spatio-Temporal Instruction Following in Video Generation

Recent video generation models (VGMs) have made substantial progress in visual fidelity, yet their ability to follow long, compositional instructions remains insufficiently evaluated. Existing evaluation protocols often rely on prompts that are short and semantically shallow, with limited atomic constraints and weak spatio-temporal dependencies. They also frequently depend on costly human evaluation or handcrafted vision pipelines, while providing little diagnostic insight into which instruction constraints succeed or fail. To address this gap, we propose VGIF-Score, a highly automated and interpretable framework for evaluating instruction following in video generation. VGIF-Score consists of two complementary components: an objective completion branch that parses prompts into a Spatio-Temporal Directed Acyclic Graph (ST-DAG) and performs dependency-aware QA with short-circuit diagnostics, and a subjective satisfaction branch that uses instruction-conditioned AutoRubric to assess cinematography, visual purity, motion smoothness, and physics adherence. Together, these components produce a unified score that captures both objective completion and perceptual satisfaction. We instantiate this framework on VGIF-Bench, a benchmark of 223 long, structurally entangled prompts paired with approximately 4.3K fine-grained evaluation items. Experiments on 14 proprietary and open-source VGMs across more than 3K generated videos show that VGIF-Score provides reliable, interpretable, and diagnostically useful evaluation of video generation instruction following. The code will be available at https://github.com/PRIS-CV/VGIF-SCORE.
Songyu Xu, Xin Wang, Qiang Chen +6
Jul 14, 2026physics.ao-ph

Robustness of Deep Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting under NWP Forecast Errors: A Spatiotemporal and Physically Interpretable Analysis

Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables. Existing evaluations, however, often rely on perfect forecast assumptions or simplistic perturbations that do not reflect these characteristics. This study presents a physically constrained robustness evaluation framework based on simulation, using virtual PV power as a controlled response variable to isolate the propagation of input uncertainty from confounders at the plant level. Six representative machine learning and deep sequence models, including PatchTST, GRU, N-HITS, and LightGBM, are evaluated under dynamic NWP perturbations with heteroscedasticity modulated by clear-sky conditions and Erbs reconstruction that preserves radiation consistency. The results show that sequence models provide stronger noise filtering and temporal resilience than a strong tabular baseline under medium to high disturbance regimes. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Integrated Gradients (IG) further support a feature reallocation tendency at the case level, in which predictive reliance shifts from corrupted future forecasts toward more stable historical observations and deterministic physical priors. A Pareto analysis of accuracy under clean conditions, robustness, and computational latency then translates these findings into engineering implications for robustness assessment and model selection under forecast uncertainty.
Dandan Chen, Yan Zhao, Xuepeng Chen
Jul 14, 2026cs.LG

STKAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Real-world traffic data exhibit heterogeneous spatial correlations and nonlinear temporal dynamics, posing substantial challenges for accurate spatio-temporal forecasting. Existing approaches have developed increasingly sophisticated graph, attention, and decomposition architectures, while the influence of the underlying nonlinear function approximator has received comparatively less attention. In this work, we propose STKAN, a spatio-temporal forecasting architecture that introduces Taylor-polynomial Kolmogorov--Arnold Network modules into spatial and temporal token mixing. STKAN first constructs high-level spatial representations through a learnable soft node-group assignment mechanism, applies group-wise spatial mixing, and subsequently models temporal dependencies over the compressed sequence. Spatial and temporal self-attention layers are further employed to capture long-range interactions. Experiments on five traffic forecasting benchmarks show that STKAN achieves competitive performance and performs better than the evaluated MLP-based variant in the tested settings. These results suggest that the design of nonlinear function approximators can serve as a useful complement to architectural design in spatio-temporal forecasting.
Sicong Lai, Yuehong Hu, Siru Zhong +3
Jul 14, 2026cs.LG

TSSM: Triaxial State Space Model for Global Station Weather Forecasting with Temporal-Variable-Historical Modeling

Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF) is pivotal for localized and extreme weather prediction over key regions. Despite efforts to exploit look-back windows, existing methods show limited accuracy gains and struggle with extreme events and error accumulation. These limitations stem from overreliance on short-term patterns, which are insufficient to capture chaotic weather dynamics, especially under partial observations. To address this problem, we propose a novel Triaxial State Space Model (TSSM) with a history-enhanced Temporal-VariableHistorical paradigm, which incorporates period-aligned historical weather data to compensate for long-term, large-scale periodic, and full-window weather patterns beyond the temporal lookback window. Specifically, TSSM stacks historical samples into period-aligned batches, where forecasting is causally supported by historical and current observations. Temporal, variable, and historical scanning are designed to capture axial temporal dependencies, variable correlations, and historical evolution. This structure is hierarchically shared to model seasonal to extreme events while alleviating misalignment across historical patterns. TSSM achieves SOTA performance on Weather-5K, the largest station weather dataset to date, with 10% and 61% gains in accuracy and extreme event metrics, and obtains 95% best or second-best results on human-involved datasets. Its advantages are more pronounced in long-horizon and iterative forecasting, reaching a 37.5% gain at 240h and up to 103.5% under a 48h times 5 iterative setting. Moreover, TSSM retains > 90% performance under up to 80% missing observations, compared with < 43% for baselines, demonstrating robustness and practical potential for reliable GSWF in global in-situ observation networks.
Songru Yang, Zili Liu, Tao Han +7
Jul 14, 2026cs.CV

Implicit 4D Gaussian Splatting for Fast Motion with Large Inter-Frame Displacements

Recent 4D Gaussian Splatting (4DGS) methods often fail under fast motion with large inter-frame displacements, where Gaussian attributes are poorly learned during training, and fast-moving objects are often lost from the reconstruction. In this work, we introduce Spatiotemporal Position Implicit Network for 4DGS, coined SPIN-4DGS, which learns Gaussian attributes from explicitly collected spatiotemporal positions rather than modeling temporal displacements, thereby enabling more faithful splatting under fast motions with large inter-frame displacements. To avoid the heavy memory overhead of explicitly optimizing attributes across all spatiotemporal positions, we instead predict them with a lightweight feed-forward network trained under a rasterization-based reconstruction loss. Consequently, SPIN-4DGS learns shared representations across Gaussians, effectively capturing spatiotemporal consistency and enabling stable high-quality Gaussian splatting even under challenging motions. Across extensive experiments, SPIN-4DGS consistently achieves higher fidelity under large displacements, with clear improvements in PSNR and SSIM on challenging sports scenes from the CMU Panoptic dataset. For example, SPIN-4DGS notably outperforms the strongest baseline, D3DGS, by achieving +1.83 higher PSNR on the Basketball scene.
Seung-gyeom Kim, Areum Kim, Yongjae Yoo +1
Jul 13, 2026eess.IV

HPC-Enabled Video-based Coastal Wave Parameter Estimation Using V-JEPA and Deep Spatiotemporal Learning

High deployment cost, poor spatial coverage and susceptibility to storm conditions are all challenges faced by traditional in-situ methods. This paper presents a video-based and high performance computing (HPC) enabled deep learning framework for joint sensor free estimation of five coastal wave parameters, namely significant wave height (Hs), maximum wave height (Hmax), peak period (Tp), zero upcrossing period (Tz) and wave direction (theta) from monocular coastal video. The proposed architecture comprises of a V-JEPA (self supervised) ViT Small backbone for robust spatiotemporal feature extraction in visually challenging scenarios, a dual-stream SlowFast temporal encoder for broad bandwidth representation of wave motion in both hydrodynamic breaking and swell regimes, an optical flow stream based on Farneback optical flow algorithm for adding saliency information to the structure with emphasis on hydrodynamically active wavelength bands of waves, and a multi-task regression layer with dispersion constraints (Airy wave dispersion lambda_p = 0.1). The model was trained on an NVIDIA DGX A100 cluster and was early stopped at epoch 31 and achieved Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.451, 0.578, 0.643, 0.680 and 0.832 for Hs, Hmax, Tp, Tz and wave direction respectively, with generalization ability to geographically diverse held out test data sites. While operating in a data-limited regime (6 annotated training scenes), the framework demonstrates statistically significant temporal correlations (PCC of 0.451 to 0.832), confirming proof of concept feasibility; R2 values (max 0.246) indicate that variance capture will improve with larger annotated datasets.
Abubakar Hamisu Kamagata, Dharm Singh Jat, Attlee Munyaradzi Gamundani +3
Jul 13, 2026cs.CV

Reference-Based Face Super-Resolution Using the Spatial Transformer

Face super-resolution is the task of increasing the resolution of an image containing a face thereby adding finer detail. It is a ubiquitous task in many computer vision applications and quite often the user isn't even aware that it is being performed. However, doing it with high fidelity is challenging as it is an ill-posed problem. In this paper we present a reference-based solution for face super-resolution that uses higher resolution reference images to aid in the task. We show an alignment module based on the spatial transformer that is considerably more stable than the popular deformable convolutions. We also show an aggregation function that can take good quality information from the reference images when available or suppress the function when such information is unavailable. Finally, we show that our relatively smaller model can achieve state of the art results on multiple datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/varun-jois/FSRST.
Varun Ramesh Jois, Antonella DiLillo, James Storer
Jul 12, 2026cs.CV

Align and Segment: Unsupervised Learning for Building Segmentation From Misaligned Labels

Supervised learning for image segmentation typically requires spatially aligned image and label sets. When images and labels originate from different sources, the pairing may be misaligned, which can significantly deteriorate the performance of the learned models. This is especially common in remote sensing, when aerial or satellite images are co-registered with labels from another source (e.g., OpenStreetMap). In this work, we propose a novel approach for training on misaligned labels, where we simultaneously learn the label alignment. Our align and segment (AnS) approach builds on the spatial transformer module to transform the misaligned labels using an affine transformation to provide a better learning target for a canonical semantic segmentation network. We prevent shortcut learning of misaligned labels in these semantic segmentation networks through a self-supervised regularization loss and show that it is complementary to data augmentation, especially for systematically misaligned training data. A decisive characteristic of our AnS approach is that it learns without requiring any golden labels. We experimentally show on both synthetic and real-world data from different cities that our approach enables high-quality building segmentation and precise label-image alignment at the same time. Code and derived datasets are available at https://github.com/venkanna37/align-and-segment
Venkanna Babu Guthula, Oswin Krause, Dimitri Gominski +5
Jul 11, 2026stat.ML

TSCoNet: A Two-Stage Copula CNN-LSTM for Uncertainty-Aware Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Reliable forecasting of several interrelated environmental variables - such as regional precipitation and temperature, or other correlated geophysical fields - across many locations calls for accurate predictions accompanied by trustworthy statements of their uncertainty. Modern deep-learning models forecast such variables accurately but usually report no uncertainty, and forcing them to output uncertainty through maximum likelihood tends to degrade their accuracy, especially when the variables are strongly correlated. Motivated by this tension, we develop TSCoNet, a two-stage convolutional-recurrent model coupled with a Gaussian copula that jointly forecasts multiple variables over space and time while quantifying predictive uncertainty. The method first learns accurate mean forecasts and then, holding the mean fixed, refines a shared representation to estimate the predictive variance, yielding calibrated prediction intervals after a standard recalibration, so that uncertainty is added without sacrificing point accuracy. We study the approach on simulated non-stationary spatial fields on the sphere and on a real dataset of monthly precipitation and temperature for fifty cities over 2000-2020. The model matches the accuracy of a strong deterministic forecaster while supplying calibrated prediction intervals that the deterministic model cannot, giving a single tool that provides both accurate point forecasts and reliable uncertainty for multivariate spatio-temporal data.
Jongwook Kim, Jong-Min Kim
Jul 9, 2026eess.IV

A Unified Model for Highly Accurate ECG-Free Dynamic Coronary Roadmapping Using Spatio-Temporal Transformers

Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) is a minimally invasive procedure used to restore coronary blood flow obstructed by atherosclerotic plaque. During PCI, repeated injections of iodine-based contrast agents are required to visualize the coronary arteries and guide interventional devices. However, frequent contrast injections increase radiation exposure and the risk of contrast-induced nephropathy, with acute kidney injury reported in up to 30% of patients with renal impairment. Dynamic Coronary Roadmapping (DRM) reduces these risks by overlaying a precomputed angiographic vessel map onto live fluoroscopy and continuously updating it throughout the procedure. Accurate DRM relies on precise cardiac phase matching between angiography and fluoroscopy, together with reliable catheter tip tracking for motion compensation. These tasks remain challenging in ECG-free settings and when only limited manual annotations are available. We present a unified DRM framework that simultaneously performs cardiac phase matching and catheter tip tracking for accurate real-time guidance. Our method employs a large-scale spatio-temporal encoder pretrained on 16 million X-ray frames to learn cardiac motion dynamics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of large-scale spatio-temporal pretraining for motion compensation in DRM. We further introduce auxiliary tasks based on ECG R-peak detection and catheter tip tracking, improving optimization while eliminating the need for extensive catheter mask annotations. Finally, a majority-voting postprocessing strategy aggregates temporal predictions, improving robustness and providing a confidence score that correlates with phase-matching error. Comprehensive evaluation on clinical X-ray datasets demonstrates state-of-the-art performance, achieving low temporal misalignment and robust phase-matching accuracy suitable for real-time DRM.
Saahil Islam, Sebastian Piat, Venkatesh N. Murthy +4
Jul 9, 2026cs.CV

WaspMOT: A Benchmark for Long-Term Multi-Object Tracking of Trichogramma Wasps

Multi-object tracking (MOT) has achieved strong performance on benchmarks dominated by short video sequences. However, such datasets do not adequately evaluate long-term identity preservation, where objects must be tracked consistently over extended durations. We introduce WaspMOT, a benchmark designed to address this gap through long-duration tracking of Trichogramma wasps in controlled ecological experiments. The dataset contains 10 sequences of approximately 12,000 frames each (over 8 minutes at 25 FPS), with dense MOTChallenge annotations and oracle detections to isolate association performance. Unlike existing benchmarks, WaspMOT forms a closed-set tracking scenario where all individuals remain present throughout the sequence, requiring consistent identity assignment across thousands of frames despite abrupt jumps, occlusions, and highly similar appearance. We establish a benchmark by evaluating five tracking-by-detection methods, including ByteTrack, BoT-SORT, C-BIoU, OC-SORT, and McByte, under a unified protocol. Results show that all methods suffer from significant trajectory fragmentation, highlighting the difficulty of long-term identity preservation even with perfect detections. A simple spatial tracklet stitching baseline consistently improves performance, indicating that substantial gains remain possible. WaspMOT provides a new benchmark for studying long-term association and reveals limitations of current tracking approaches that are not observable on conventional datasets. The benchmark will be made publicly available at the project repository: https://github.com/tstanczyk95/WaspMOT/ .
Tomasz Stanczyk, Yuan Gao, Hardik Agarwal +4
Jul 9, 2026cs.LG

RhyMix: A Lightweight Adaptive Multi-Rhythm Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time series exhibit complex dynamics characterized by multiple simultaneous temporal patterns: short-term fluctuations, periodic seasonal cycles, long-term trends, and irregular abrupt changes. However, many existing forecasting architectures rely on single-path temporal modeling--transformers capture long-range dependencies but smooth local variations, convolutions capture local patterns but have limited receptive fields, and linear models are efficient but cannot capture nonlinear dynamics. To address this, we introduce RhyMix (RHYthm MIXture), a hybrid neural architecture designed around a parallel dual-path modeling paradigm with adaptive gating mechanisms. RhyMix integrates two complementary encoding branches: (i) a Cyclic Path that incorporates explicit seasonal inductive bias through learnable cyclic embeddings, capturing predictable rhythmic patterns; and (ii) a lightweight Multi-Scale Temporal Convolutional Network with Channel Attention Path that employs multi-scale depthwise dilated convolutions to capture temporal dependencies across different receptive fields. A key innovation is the use of adaptive gating at multiple levels: a path gate dynamically combines four specialized forecasting heads (Direct, Trend-Seasonal Decomposition, Local Convolution, and Periodic Fusion) per sample and channel, while a hybrid gate adaptively balances the Cyclic and MSTCN-CA Paths based on input characteristics. This design ensures the model adapts to specific temporal patterns while maintaining linear complexity in sequence length, channels, and prediction horizon. Across extensive benchmarks on 12 real-world datasets for long-term forecasting, RhyMix achieves state-of-the-art performance on 10 of 12 datasets. The model remains lightweight (~40K params) with linear complexity and low-latency inference (<5ms),suitable for resource-constrained edge devices and real-time deployment.
Sumit Satishrao Shevtekar, Chandresh Kumar Maurya
Jul 8, 2026cs.NE

Social-spatial dependencies for learning visual navigation

Navigation for social organisms rarely is a fully independent activity. Group structure and dynamics, as well as embodied interactions, critically influence useful behavior. Individual neural network controlled agents are trained to navigate in different social contexts, where social dependence and behavioral strategy learned is determined by relative task performance and spatial effect. Increasing high quality social information drives phase transitions from individual to following navigational strategy, and to collision avoidance in response to a crowded foraging patch. Predictable, nonstationary environmental dynamics drive behavioral hybridization between individual and social navigation, far and near the patch. Our findings challenge the approach of only inspecting individual behavior for social organisms and highlight the importance of taking a bottom-up approach in understanding how organisms behave.
Patrick Govoni, Pawel Romanczuk
Jul 7, 2026cs.RO

EvoPlan: Evolutionary Neuro-Symbolic Robot Planning with Spatio-Temporal Guarantees

LLM-based robot planners are fluent but cannot guarantee that their plans are executable or safe. Classical PDDL planners can guarantee these properties, but only after the problem is fully specified, and they make poor use of an LLM's ability to read context and repair plans. This paper presents a neuro-symbolic framework with three parts. All LLM calls use a locally-hosted open-weight model, so the pipeline can be deployed on-robot with no cloud dependency. First, an offline procedure that mines a single global Signal Temporal Logic (STL) constraint on mobility from demonstration data. The procedure recovers codified rules (e.g., stopping at red lights, mined from nuPlan driving logs) or population preferences (e.g., social-navigation comfort, mined from SCAND teleoperation), depending on what the demonstrations encode. Because the demonstrations are a one-class signal, we generate the missing negatives with counterfactual perturbations and an LLM violation generator and then fit the constraint by evolutionary search. We use the mined constraint to shield a vision-language driving policy on Bench2Drive and two discrete-action navigation policies on HA-VLN-CE. Second, an evolutionary PDDL planner: an LLM proposes and repairs plans, programmatic validators decide which ones survive, and the validated portion of the plan grows over iterations. We test the planner on the open-world ALFWorld Text benchmark, where it beats strong baselines and stays robust when the goal vocabulary does not match the action-model vocabulary. Third, a constrained execution loop: the planner's plan is compiled into waypoints, the waypoints are checked against the mined constraint, and the planner re-plans on a violation. We illustrate the full pipeline via demonstrations using the Gazebo simulator.
Bhavya Sai Nukapotula, Samin Moosavi, Haoze Wang +4
Jul 7, 2026math.DS

A study of holes: Topological analysis reveals crowd dynamics regimes in a bidirectional corridor scenario

This study harnesses topological analysis in an attempt to reveal structure in the dynamics of a crowd. Topology and in particular persistent homology characterizes relational structures in data through the number of connected components and holes, that is, a loop of pairwise connection with no connections across it. We apply this universal data analysis method to a simulated time series of individual pedestrian positions of a crowd moving through a wide corridor -- either uni- or bidirectional. We consider two pedestrians to be connected, when they are sufficiently close. This approach leads to two matrices containing the persistence signatures for the whole time series, so-called CROCKERs. Despite the high level of data abstraction, the CROCKERs' first two principal components on time-delayed positional data show a clear separation of the different parameter configurations. This holds up to symmetry. Our results support our claim that persistent homology is a useful tool to characterize crowd dynamics without introducing any prior assumptions about the detectable spatio-temporal patterns.
Sabrina Desiree Kern, Gerta Köster
Jul 7, 2026cs.DB

Discovering Frequent Closed Embedded Sub-DAGs in Spatio-Temporal Event Data

We propose a novel approach to mine patterns in spatio-temporal event data based on discovering frequent closed embedded sub-Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). In our method, event instances are represented as nodes labelled by event types, while edges capture spatio-temporal following relationships. We formally define the considered class of patterns and provide the rationale for focusing on closed sub-DAGs as compact and non-redundant representations of recurring interaction patterns. We implement the DigDag algorithm for mining such patterns and experimentally compare its efficiency with two related approaches: propagation pattern mining using the SLEUTH algorithm and Cascading Spatio-Temporal Pattern mining using the CSTPM algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach is substantially more efficient while operating under comparable parameter settings. Finally, we present a qualitative analysis of selected discovered patterns.
Piotr S. Maciąg
Jul 6, 2026cs.CV

MV-Forcing: Long Multi-View Video Generation via 4D-Grounded Spatio-Temporal Self-Forcing

Recent advances in video diffusion models have enabled either long single-view generation through temporal autoregression, or short multi-view synthesis through bidirectional attention. However, generating long, multi-view consistent videos of dynamic scenes remains unsolved. In this work, we present MV-Forcing, a framework that composes temporal and view-wise autoregression within a single diffusion model by introducing a 4D geometric bridge between sequentially generated views. Our key insight is that an autoregressive 3D reconstruction model naturally interfaces between autoregressively generated views. Given a completed source view, we reconstruct its 3D structure and render a geometric prior of the next target viewpoint, which the diffusion model refines into a high-quality video. To extend generation beyond the teacher's fixed temporal window, we introduce a joint denoising regime where both view slots are initialized from noise during training, enabling temporally unbounded generation. We distill the model via Distribution Matching Distillation with Spatio-Temporal Self-Forcing, closing the train-inference exposure bias gap for both temporal and view-sequential autoregression. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that MV-Forcing produces geometrically consistent multi-view videos of dynamic scenes at arbitrary lengths and viewpoint counts using a single few-step student model.
Gal Fiebelman, Hadar Averbuch-Elor, Sagie Benaim
Jul 6, 2026cs.LG

MeGA-MP: Metric Graph Advection Message Passing -- A Physics-Informed Message Passing Operator for Advection-Dominated Metric Graphs

Many real-world systems are organized as networks where spatio-temporal dynamics unfold along connections and not discretely between nodes. Examples include utility networks such as water distribution systems or gas networks, electrical grids, and traffic flow networks. Such systems are naturally modeled as metric graphs, where edges correspond to one-dimensional Euclidean subspaces connected at vertices. Metric graphs are independent of an underlying global Euclidean space, limiting direct application of typical PINNs and operator-learning methods. Especially transport dynamics like advection require a methodology able to capture antisymmetric and long-range dependencies on graphs, which is itself a challenge. We propose a novel physics-informed message passing operator that encodes linear advection on metric graphs as an inductive bias. In the purely advective setting, the operator provably recovers the exact dynamics up to a theoretically derived discretization error without any training. Combined with trainable components like MLPs, our message passing operator extends to realistic advection-reaction dynamics in water distribution systems, where we achieve superior performance compared to baselines and zero-shot generalization across different graph topologies.
Janine Strotherm, Luca Hermes, André Artelt +1
Jul 5, 2026cs.CV

CRISP: A Spatiotemporal Camera-Radar Backbone for Driving via Forecasting-Based World-Model Pretraining

Camera-radar (CR) fusion is a practical sensing configuration for autonomous driving, but existing models are typically trained with task-specific supervision, limiting reusable representation learning. We present CRISP, a spatiotemporal CR backbone pretrained through forecasting-based representation learning. Given historical multi-view images and radar sweeps, CRISP learns a unified bird's-eye-view (BEV) representation by predicting future LiDAR point clouds. LiDAR is used only as privileged supervision during pretraining; the deployed model requires only camera and radar. To make forecasting-based pretraining effective for CR fusion, CRISP introduces an enhanced radar encoder, radar-enhanced temporal self-attention, and multimodal feature rendering with modality innovation gating. These components inject radar range and Doppler cues into BEV temporal propagation and allow BEV tokens to selectively incorporate camera and radar evidence. Experiments on nuScenes show that CRISP improves long-horizon point cloud forecasting and transfers effectively to downstream tasks, including 3D detection, tracking, online mapping, motion forecasting, future occupancy prediction, and planning, suggesting that predictive CR pretraining is a promising path toward scalable driving representations under practical sensor configurations. The project website is https://umfieldrobotics.github.io/CRISP.
Jingyu Song, Yi Liu, Katherine A. Skinner
Jul 5, 2026cs.CV

A non-invasive video-based method for individual identification of wildlife using gait dynamics

Gait is a distinctive behavioral characteristic that enables non-invasive individual identification without requiring physical interaction with an animal. While gait-based analysis has been extensively studied in humans, its application to wildlife remains limited due to environmental variability and the lack of scalable identification methods. This paper presents a fully automated, video-based pipeline for wildlife gait analysis and individual identification using deep spatiotemporal representation learning. The proposed pipeline uses the Segment Anything Model 3 (SAM3) to generate high-quality RGB and binary silhouette masks, robustly isolating animals from complex natural backgrounds. Segmented video sequences are processed using a convolutional neural network (ResNet18) for spatial feature extraction and a transformer-based video model (VideoPrism) for temporal motion modeling. Both models are fine-tuned using a classification objective and subsequently used as feature extractors to generate discriminative gait representations. Cosine similarity is then used to compare gait signatures, enabling similarity-based clustering of individuals without reliance on physical markings or invasive tagging. Experiments conducted on multi-source wildlife video data across multiple species demonstrate strong intra-individual consistency and clear inter-individual separation. Quantitative results using cosine similarity distributions and silhouette scores confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method. These findings demonstrate that gait dynamics provide a viable, non-invasive approach for individual identification in wildlife and highlight the potential of video-based deep learning pipelines for scalable ecological monitoring.
Muhammad Aamir, Matthew Wijers, Sangyun Shin +2
Jul 3, 2026cs.CV

From General Actions to Domain-Specific Monitoring: Prior-Adaptive Transfer for Skeleton-Based Action Recognition

Skeleton-based action recognition models have recently shown strong performance on large-scale benchmarks with general actions. However, directly transferring them to domain-specific tasks e.g., healthcare monitoring, is often suboptimal, as such tasks are narrow in scope and may be relevant to only a subset of general motion priors. Moreover, not all pretrained motion patterns are equally useful for a specific task, and retaining less relevant components may hinder adaptation and increase computational cost. To address these challenges, we propose Prior-Adaptive Transfer of Skeletons (PATS), a framework that adapts general skeleton-based models by selectively retaining task-relevant motion priors while filtering redundant ones during transfer. PATS follows a standard pipeline that extracts skeleton signals from videos and employs a spatio-temporal backbone pre-trained on general actions. The key contribution lies in a novel Adaptive Prior Transfer module, which performs model compression as a prior selection mechanism through iterative pruning and refinement. Experiments on two specific action recognition tasks, Alzheimer's detection and fall detection, show consistent improvements in both performance and efficiency over competitive baselines. The code will be released upon acceptance.
Hao Wang, Di Yang, Jiangtao Wang
Jul 2, 2026cs.CV

Dual-Selective Network for Domain-Incremental Change Detection

Domain-incremental change detection (DICD) continuously adapts models to new geographic domains while preserving prior knowledge. However, a structural mismatch exists: the label space remains fixed while domain characteristics vary drastically. Consequently, incremental models struggle to maintain stable spatial change representations across domains. Existing strategies, such as replay-based or regularization-based methods, often fail to scale to long domain sequences, leading to knowledge degradation or increased computational cost. We propose Dual-Selective Incremental Network (DSINet), a unified framework built on visual state space models. DSINet leverages Mamba's input-dependent selective mechanism through a selective spatial state unit (S3U). This unit preserves stable spatial change structures while filtering domain-specific variations during feature propagation. As a result, spatial representations remain stable across domains, preventing the accumulation of feature confusion over incremental steps. Additionally, we employ a concentration-balanced distillation (CBD) strategy to stabilize knowledge transfer across domains. It balances hardness and confidence concentration effects during incremental updates. This ensures reliable probability mass allocation and prevents over-smoothing or mode collapse during distillation. Together, these mechanisms maintain stable learning dynamics throughout incremental stages. Experimental results demonstrate that DSINet mitigates knowledge degradation across long domain sequences while maintaining the linear computational efficiency of state space models.
Yuzhi He, Junxi Huang, Haorui Wu +1
Jul 1, 2026cs.CV

Spatial-Temporal Expert Learning for Video-based Person Re-identification

Video-based person re-identification (Re-ID) aims to retrieve the same identity in the query video clips from the gallery video clips. To solve this problem, exploiting fine-grained features is of great importance, especially when discriminating identities that are similar in appearance. In this paper, we propose to enhance the ability to explore fine-grained information with a novel input-aware extendable expert module. Instead of updating the network parameters with every sample in the dataset, we aim to train the experts within specific subsets that only contain similar samples and promote their ability to exploit fine-grained information within these similar samples. To achieve this goal, we incorporate two mechanisms in this module: input-aware expert selection mechanism and spatial-temporal selection mechanism. The first mechanism dynamically activates a set of experts on subsets of similar samples, pushing the experts to exploit subtle differences between these similar samples, while the second one further increases their sensitivity to the fine-grained differences in spatial and temporal aspects and allows the experts to dynamically utilize them for different input samples. In addition, to facilitate the expert module, we design an extendable scheme that allows the module to flexibly add new experts when necessary. As a result, our method achieves outstanding performance on two large-scale datasets.
Xiaofei Hui, Pengfei Wang, Evan Ling +4
Jul 1, 2026cs.LG

Seahorse: A Unified Benchmarking Framework for Spatiotemporal Event Modeling

Spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs) model event data in continuous time and space, with applications in mobility, epidemiology, and public safety. Recent neural STPPs span expressive intensity models, conditional density models, continuous-time latent dynamics, normalizing-flow spatial decoders, and score-based generative mechanisms. Yet comparison remains fragile because implementations differ in preprocessing, coordinate normalization, splits, likelihood conventions, and evaluation protocols. We present SEAHORSE, a unified framework for reproducible STPP experimentation. SEAHORSE formalizes neural STPPs through a common encode-evolve-decode interface and trains, tunes, and evaluates every model family under a single executable benchmark protocol with raw-coordinate likelihood reporting. This enables fair comparisons but, more importantly, controlled diagnostic studies. We pair SEAHORSE with HawkesNest, a synthetic stress-test suite, and show that increasing event-pattern complexity exposes each family's inductive bias, degrading some models sharply and leaving others stable. Code: https://github.com/YahyaAalaila/seahorse.
Yahya Aalaila, Gerrit Großmann, Sebastian Vollmer
Jul 1, 2026cs.CE

A Multi-Resolution Finite-Volume Inspired Deep Learning Framework for Spatiotemporal Dynamics Prediction

Predicting complex spatiotemporal dynamics in physical processes often demands computationally expensive numerical methods or data-driven neural networks that suffer from high training costs, error accumulation, and limited generalizability to unseen parameters. An effective approach to address these challenges is leveraging physics priors in training neural networks, known as physics-informed deep learning (PiDL). In this work, we introduce the Multi-Resolution Finite-Volume-inspired network, MuRFiV, designed to capitalize on the conservative property of finite volume on the global scale and the expressive power of deep learning on the local scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MuRFiV on several spatio-temporal systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), including Burgers' equation, shallow water equations, and incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. By embedding PDE information into the deep learning architecture, MuRFiV achieves strong long-term prediction accuracy and remains stable over very long autoregressive rollouts, significantly outperforming data-driven neural network baselines. This result highlights the promise of combining multiresolution learning with finite-volume-inspired inductive bias for accurate and robust long-term prediction of complex dynamics.
Xin-Yang Liu, Xiantao Fan, Jian-Xun Wang
Jun 30, 2026cs.LG

Device Passport: Enabling Spatio-Temporal Pretrained Models to Generalize Across Input Layouts

New device layouts pose a challenging modeling problem due to the lack of large datasets for each specific layout. Biosignal foundation models offer a plausible solution if they are able to generalize to new layouts effectively. To improve cross-layout transfer, we study how different channel embedding techniques behave when pretraining layouts differ substantially from the downstream decoding layout. We propose Device Passport, a new channel embedding technique that learns experts and mixture models that take each channel's functional activity and metadata as input. This contrasts with prior embedding methods, which typically use only functional information or only metadata to look up learned or fixed positional embeddings. Across controlled subset-transfer experiments and realistic transfer to ear-EEG, Device Passport is competitive overall and improves over the strongest learned baseline in the layout-transfer regimes that motivate this work. These results suggest that channel embedding design is a key consideration when reusing large-scale pretrained biosignal models on new devices.
Geeling Chau, Ran Liu, Juri Minxha +5
Jun 30, 2026cs.LG

Relational and Sequential Conformal Inference for Energy Time Series over Graphs via Foundation Models

Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and relational dependencies across interconnected energy nodes. However, in real-world energy systems, accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient, as operators also require reliable uncertainty estimates to support risk-aware decision-making, grid stability, and operational planning under uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides a principled and model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with statistical coverage guarantees, making it particularly attractive for safety-critical energy applications. However, existing conformal prediction approaches often fail to fully capture the complex spatial-temporal structure of energy systems. To address these limitations, we propose STOIC (Spatial-Temporal Graph Conformal Prediction with In-Context Learning), a novel framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with the zero-shot calibration capabilities of tabular foundation models. STOIC first generates point forecasts using an STGNN and subsequently reformulates spatial-temporal residuals into a tabular representation suitable for in-context learning. Leveraging a tabular foundation model, STOIC calibrates prediction intervals without task-specific retraining, effectively capturing both sequential and relational dependencies. We evaluate STOIC on five diverse benchmarks, including synthetic simulations as well as real-world electricity and district heating networks. Across all datasets, STOIC consistently outperforms existing conformal prediction baselines, delivering more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.
Keivan Faghih Niresi, Alice Cicirello, Olga Fink
Jun 30, 2026cs.CV

Temporal Preservation over Processing: Diagnosing and Designing Spatiotemporal Single-Stage Video Detectors

Single-stage video object detectors are increasingly deployed in time-critical applications, yet it remains unclear whether these models genuinely reason over temporal context or merely exploit a single informative frame-a gap hidden by standard metrics, which reward correct predictions regardless of how they are reached. We address this from two complementary directions: first, we propose TemporalLens, a model-agnostic diagnostic framework probing temporal dependence through controlled perturbations, structured occlusions, temporal shuffling, redundancy injection, and resolution degradation, revealing whether a detector actually uses information across time. Applied to stacked-frame 2D detectors and our YOLO-3D architecture, it exposes behavioural differences invisible to mAP: stacked 2D models collapse when the target frame is removed, while spatiotemporal models recover predictions from earlier frames, a signature of real temporal reliance. Second, we detail YOLO-3D, a modular real-time spatiotemporal detector built on YOLOv8, and show that simply preserving temporal depth through the backbone is the dominant performance driver (+3.7 pp mAP@50 at 32 frames averaged across scales). Together, the diagnostics and architecture turn "does this detector reason over time?" into a measurable, actionable question.
Karam Tomotaki-Dawoud, Anna Hilsmann, Peter Eisert +1
Jun 30, 2026cs.LG

Learning Gaussian Graphical Models from a Glauber Trajectory Without Mixing

We study the task of learning the structure of a dd-sparse Gaussian graphical model on nn variables from a single trajectory of Glauber dynamics. Beyond algorithmic considerations, many applications present temporally correlated observations rather than i.i.d.\ samples. In the classical i.i.d.\ setting, under comparably general sparsity and minimum edge-strength assumptions, sublinear-in-nn sample guarantees are known, but achieving them in polynomial-time remains open. Motivated in part by this gap, we give a polynomial-time algorithm that recovers the conditional-independence graph from a single Glauber trajectory, with a trajectory-length guarantee that does not depend on the mixing time. Technically, our algorithm has three components. First, we estimate the conditional variances and rescale the trajectory to reduce to the unit-diagonal case, without changing the underlying graph. Second, we design a local edge test that extracts adjacency information from short update windows by isolating pairwise influence. Third, we aggregate these local statistics using a robust median-based estimator, and prove accuracy despite temporal dependence arising from a single trajectory.
Eric Shen, Tony Wu, Mahbod Majid +1
Jun 29, 2026cs.CV

OWMDrive: Causality-Aware End-to-End Autonomous Driving via 4D Occupancy World Model

Autonomous driving systems are steadily moving toward end-to-end paradigms to mitigate the limited adaptability of rule-based pipelines in complex traffic environments. However, most existing learning-based methods still make decisions from static representations of the current scene, without explicit future rollouts or modeling of the temporal causal dynamics in traffic interactions. This limitation often results in unstable or overly conservative planning under high-uncertainty conditions, such as occlusions and unexpected events. To overcome these challenges, we introduce OWMDrive, a generative end-to-end driving framework built upon an Occupancy World Model for multi-step 3D occupancy forecasting, which serves as a conditional prior to guide diffusion-based planning. Conditioned on both current observations and predicted future states, the planner iteratively refines trajectory candidates to generate a reinforced driving trajectory. By explicitly modeling scene evolution over future horizons, OWMDrive captures key spatiotemporal causal dependencies, which leads to more foresighted and robust trajectory generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OWMDrive significantly improves planning reliability and safety, especially in challenging and partially observable driving scenarios.
Junjie Cheng, Ruiqi Song, Ye Wu +3
Jun 29, 2026cs.CV

CylindTrack: Depth-Aware Cylindrical Motion Modeling for Panoramic Multi-Object Tracking

Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) is a core capability for embodied perception, and panoramic cameras are attractive for embodied systems because their 360° field of view reduces blind spots and keeps surrounding targets observable for longer durations. However, panoramic MOT is not a straightforward extension of perspective MOT. In equirectangular panoramic videos, the horizontal image domain is periodic rather than Euclidean, which breaks planar motion assumptions and makes IoU-based association unreliable near the 0°/360° seam. Meanwhile, large-FoV scenes often contain more objects, stronger scale variation, and more frequent interactions, making online association particularly sensitive to unstable frame-wise depth cues. To address these issues, we propose CylindTrack, a depth-aware cylindrical tracking-by-detection framework for panoramic MOT. CylindTrack first introduces Depth-Temporal Trajectory Modeling (DTM), which promotes instance depth from an isolated frame-wise cue to a temporally filtered trajectory-level state. To improve the reliability of depth observations, we further develop Spherical Spatio-Temporal Consistency Learning (SSTC), which combines a Temporal Mixer and Spherical Geometry-aware Attention to enhance temporal coherence and panoramic geometric alignment in depth-aware representations. Finally, we design a Topology-Aware Cylindrical Motion Model (TCMM) that lifts horizontal motion into a continuous angular state space and performs seam-consistent motion prediction and association in the periodic panoramic domain. By jointly modeling trajectory-level depth consistency and panoramic topology, CylindTrack improves identity preservation and trajectory continuity in challenging panoramic scenes. The source code will be released at https://github.com/warriordby/CylindTrack.
Buyin Deng, Kai Luo, Lingxin Huang +5
Jun 29, 2026cs.CV

Building artificial intelligence virtual tissue (AIVT) for tissue state representation, feature prediction, and dynamic simulation

Modeling tissue states and their transitions is essential for understanding tissue homeostasis in health and pathological remodeling in disease. However, conventional computational modeling approaches are inadequate to capture the complexity of tissues as spatially organized, multiscale biological systems. Artificial intelligence (AI) has shown a remarkable ability for representing intricate systems, creating new opportunities to characterize tissue states and their transitions. Here, we propose the concept of AI virtual tissue (AIVT), an AI framework grounded in spatial multimodal data for modeling tissues in health and disease. AIVT is designed to learn unified, spatially resolved, and dynamically manipulatable representations of tissue state, enabling tissue state representation and analysis, molecular and morphological feature prediction, and simulation of spatiotemporal tissue dynamics. We outline the fundamental assumptions, core capabilities, architectural components, as well as data and algorithm foundations of AIVT as a framework for AI-driven tissue modeling.
Qiqi Lu, Qianjin Feng, Shaoqun Zeng +1
Jun 29, 2026cs.CV

RainODE: Continuous-Time Precipitation Forecasting with Latent Neural ODEs

In precipitation forecasting, not only accuracy but also temporal resolution is critical. However, increasing temporal resolution is constrained by observational limitations and the computational cost of dense discrete modeling. To overcome this limitation, we reformulate precipitation forecasting as a continuous-time dynamical system and propose RainODE, a framework that models precipitation evolution in latent space using a Neural ODE. This formulation enables derivative-consistent temporal dynamics and captures the dominant large-scale advective motion of precipitation systems. Nevertheless, a purely deterministic ODE struggles to represent non-advective intensity changes such as localized growth, decay, and sub-grid variability, often leading to over-smoothed predictions. To address this issue, we introduce a stochastic source modeling module based on a Brownian Bridge formulation, which refines residual intensity variations and restores fine-grained structures while preserving advective consistency. By combining deterministic continuous dynamics with stochastic refinement, RainODE enables arbitrary-time inference while maintaining sharp predictions. Experiments on SEVIR and the newly introduced Radar-based Precipitation Integrated Dataset (RAPID) demonstrate consistent improvements across multiple temporal intervals and precipitation regimes. The code is available at https://github.com/SeongYE/RainODE.
Yeeun Seong, Doyi Kim, Minseok Seo +1