Area Under The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

A small transformer encoder is trained to map Terminal-Wrench trajectories onto a unit sphere where embedding distance approximates the $L_1$ distance between reward and metadata signals. A linear probe on top of that embedding detects reward hacking on the cleaned test split with AUC $0.9467$ and TPR@5%FPR $0.8296$, matching the TW sanitized LLM-as-judge AUC ($0.9510$ on the cleaned split) and exceeding its TPR@5%FPR ($0.7130$ vs $0.8296$) on the same information condition, at roughly four orders of magnitude lower per-trajectory cost. The encoder is not a pure behavior reader: stripping natural-language reasoning from its input at probe time drops AUC to $0.6213$.

Abnormality detection is a crucial yet challenging task in medical image analysis. Distinguishing abnormalities from normal data by learning to reconstruct normal-only data alleviates the reliance on labeled datasets. However, many studies, even if unsupervised, rely on a labeled validation set to select the best model for inference from multiple training iterations. For many diseases labeled data are unavailable and substantially time consuming to obtain. To address this, AUCp - a novel metric that supports abnormality detection for unsupervised and self-supervised methods is proposed. Instead of evaluating the realism of reconstructed images to select the best of model for inference, it focuses on actual detection performance and without requiring an annotated test set. Assuming the pseudo ground truth of all unannotated samples in the test set as abnormal/positive and using traditional AUC calculation, AUCp scores are derived. Given a large and representative training set of normal samples, we show mathematical and empirical evidence that model selection using AUCp scores improves disease detection in terms of unsupervised and self-supervised methods over conventional metrics. Using two unsupervised methods for neurologic disease detection and self-supervised methods on diverse datasets, our results demonstrate that the AUCp score effectively identifies the optimal model for inference, significantly enhancing abnormality and disease detection. The corresponding implementations are available in https://github.com/mahfuzmohammad/AUCp.

Customer churn prediction is a central task in customer analytics, particularly in non-contractual, pay-per-use service environments where disengagement is not explicitly observed and must be inferred from behavioral inactivity. Existing churn prediction approaches often rely on simplified temporal assumptions or single-point representations of customer behavior, which limit their ability to support continuous risk assessment, interpretability, and realistic deployment over time. This study proposes a temporally explicit churn prediction framework that models customer behavior using rolling behavioral windows, enabling repeated and instance-level churn risk estimation as customer activity evolves. Customer behavior is summarized within a fixed 30-day observation window, followed by a 30-day future churn evaluation window, ensuring a clear temporal separation between behavioral evidence and churn outcomes. The framework integrates feature-based and sequence-based learning approaches within a unified temporal design. The proposed approach is evaluated on a large-scale, real-world dataset from a non-contractual service platform. Empirical results demonstrate strong and stable predictive performance, with accuracy reaching 87.6% and ROC-AUC of 0.94 for the feature-based model, while the sequence-based model achieves recall as high as 96.1% by capturing temporal disengagement patterns. Evaluation on future unseen data confirms meaningful robustness under temporal shift, with accuracy remaining above 83% and ROC-AUC exceeding 0.91 without model retraining. Overall, the findings highlight that carefully designed temporal framing, rather than model complexity alone, is critical for achieving robust, interpretable, and deployment-ready churn prediction. The study provides a practical foundation for churn-oriented decision support in dynamic service environments.

Identifying most influential sets (MIS) - size-$k$ subsets whose removal maximally changes a target estimand - is typically infeasible because it requires searching over $\binom{n}{k}$ subsets. For estimands with linear-fractional leave-set-out effects, we show that MIS selection reduces to a one-parameter sequence of top-$k$ problems. Dinkelbach's method yields an algorithm with $\mathcal{O}(n)$ cost per iteration and finite termination. For fixed residualized inputs, the algorithm returns a globally optimal set for the univariate ratio objective, including the oracle-residualized partial linear model. With estimated nuisance functions, uniform denominator and generated-score stability imply approximation to the first-order oracle orthogonal-score objective; exact set recovery follows under a separation condition. Simulations and applications show that the method recovers exact MIS that were previously computationally inaccessible.

Hate moderation is often evaluated as classification on clean English inputs, but deployed systems must route content to actions such as ALLOW, FLAG, or REVIEW. We study how this workflow changes under code-mixed inputs using a paired evaluation setting where the same underlying content is expressed as clean English and Tamil-English code-mix. Under thresholds tuned on clean English development data, code-mixed inputs produce substantial action instability, with a paired clean- to-code-mix decision flip rate of 0.265. The main workflow effects are increased review burden and increased false-flagging of non-hateful content: review rate rises from 0.138 to 0.297 and non-hate false-flag rate rises from 0.069 to 0.104. Tamil-only inputs show stronger degradation overall, suggesting a broader language-coverage limitation rather than the same code-mixed instability pattern. A simple disagreement-based deferral rule reduces automatic errors on stressed inputs, but only by increasing review load. These results show that workflow-level evaluation reveals moderation failures that standard classification summaries can miss.

Breast cancer remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality among women worldwide, making early detection essential for effective treatment. Mammography is the primary screening modality; however, accurate delineation of suspicious lesions remains challenging and subject to inter-observer variability. Automated segmentation methods can assist radiologists by providing consistent and efficient lesion localization. This study presents DSU-Net, an attention-enhanced Dense Skip U-Net architecture for automated breast lesion segmentation in mammographic images. The proposed framework integrates dense skip connections and attention mechanisms to improve feature propagation, preserve spatial information, and enhance lesion boundary delineation. Experiments were conducted using the Curated Breast Imaging Subset of the Digital Database for Screening Mammography (CBIS-DDSM). To address severe foreground-background imbalance, a composite loss function combining Dice loss, focal loss, and binary cross-entropy loss was employed during training. The proposed model achieved a Dice Similarity Coefficient of 0.9421, an Intersection over Union of 0.8905, an accuracy of 0.9711, and an AUC-ROC of 0.9878 on the validation dataset. Qualitative evaluation demonstrated accurate delineation of lesions with varying sizes and morphologies, while quantitative results confirmed robust discrimination between lesion and background regions. These findings demonstrate that DSU-Net provides accurate and reliable breast lesion segmentation in mammographic images and highlights the potential of attention-guided deep learning for computer-aided breast cancer screening and diagnosis.

To develop and evaluate deep learning models for automated grading of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) severity using optical coherence tomography (OCT) and OCT angiography (OCTA) data. Two hundred seventy-one participants aged >= 50 years with varying AMD severities. Central macular 6 x 6 mm OCT/OCTA volumes were acquired using a swept-source OCTA system (SOLIX; Visionix/Optovue Inc., CA). AMD severity was graded into four stages (No AMD, Early AMD, Intermediate AMD, and Advanced AMD) according to the AREDS simplified severity scale. Three deep learning models were developed using different input modalities: (1) biomarker maps derived from segmented pathological features, including retinal fluid, drusen, geographic atrophy (GA), and macular neovascularization (MNV); (2) two-dimensional (2D) en face OCT and OCTA projections; and (3) three-dimensional (3D) OCT/OCTA volumes. EfficientNet-based architectures were trained using normalized inputs, data augmentation, and five-fold cross-validation. A total of 2,030 OCT/OCTA volumes from 351 eyes of 271 participants were analyzed. All models demonstrated strong AMD staging performance with substantial agreement with the reference standard (QWK >= 0.83). The biomarker-based model achieved the highest overall performance (QWK = 0.85 +/- 0.03, mean +/- standard deviation) and the best detection of early AMD (F1-score = 0.59 +/- 0.14). The 3D model achieved performance comparable to the 2D OCT/OCTA model (QWK = 0.83 +/- 0.04 vs. 0.83 +/- 0.09), while the 2D OCT/OCTA model showed the highest precision (0.79 +/- 0.06) and most accurately identified eyes without AMD. Deep learning models using OCT/OCTA data can accurately and automatically grade AMD severity. Among the evaluated approaches, the biomarker-based model provided the most balanced performance and showed particular value for early AMD detection.

Radiology reports describe kidney lesions by type, size, enhancement, and attenuation, yet existing 3D methods predict only at the patient or organ level. We reformulate kidney CT characterization as a per-lesion set-prediction task: one model emits a variable number of lesions per kidney, each with four clinical attributes. We curated 2,619 CT volumes from 788 patients at one academic medical center, with multi-granularity side- and per-lesion labels, and used KiTS23 (489 cases) for zero-shot external validation. We propose \textbf{LesionDETR}, a DETR-style architecture with size-distance Hungarian matching and a hierarchical loss that aggregates per-slot outputs to side-level objectives. Across four input representations and six encoder initializations, two design choices dominate: a segmentation mask as an input channel, and same-domain abdominal pretraining (SuPreM); generic large-corpus pretraining is no better than random initialization. LesionDETR reaches bilateral side-level abnormality AUC $0.799 \pm 0.009$ on UF-Health and $0.817 \pm 0.072$ on KiTS23. A count-conditioned variant reaches per-lesion mAP $0.190 \pm 0.083$ on cystic lesions; rare solid-lesion AP stays at the noise floor, pointing to targeted data collection, not architecture, as the next bottleneck. The framework yields verified per-lesion predictions for downstream structured report generation.

Selecting a clustering algorithm and its hyperparameters without labels is a common difficulty in engineering machine learning pipelines that work with unsupervised analysis of sensor, image, or process data. Clustering validation indices (CVIs) provide internal scores for ranking candidate clusterings, but most popular CVIs are built from Euclidean compactness and separation terms and so tend to favour compact, convex partitions. Their performance is known to degrade on non convex, irregular, or variable density data, where kernel transformations or alternative distance measures are typically used at the cost of additional tuning and computation. This paper introduces the Central Description Length (CDL) clustering validation index. CDL uses the observed within cluster compactness, the estimated cluster centers, and the estimated cluster covariances to compute a probabilistic upper bound on the description length associated with the unobservable true cluster centers. The bound condenses intra cluster compactness and centroid displacement into a single computable quantity and is evaluated on the partition produced by any clustering algorithm. The implementation uses only observable quantities (the data, the partition, the estimated centers, and the estimated covariances) and does not use ground truth labels. On synthetic benchmarks with non convex and arbitrary shape clusters, CDL-CVI selected the reference number of clusters more often and reached higher Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) values than the conventional CVIs we tested, without an additional kernel preprocessing stage. On image benchmarks (MNIST, CIFAR-10, STL-10) clustered from frozen unsupervised embeddings, CDL-CVI returned cluster numbers close to the reference class counts across K-means, DBSCAN, and spectral clustering in the reported trials.

Understanding how structural connections are associated with tau propagation in Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains a central open question, yet existing computational models either rely heavily on biophysical assumptions or lack neurobiologically interpretable pathway maps. We present SC-TauPath, a structural connectivity (SC) attribution framework that maps tau propagation pathways from in vivo neuroimaging data. SC-TauPath combines a Network Diffusion Model (NDM)-augmented multilayer perceptron with gradient $\times$ input attribution to score each SC edge's contribution to tau prediction, then translates these attribution scores into multi-scale pathway maps (backbone edges, high-traffic routes, and hub ROIs), which validates established Braak staging anatomy. Applied to 234 ADNI participants with paired DTI SC and 18F-Flortaucipir PET, SC-TauPath achieves strong cross-validated tau prediction and yields attribution-based pathway maps consistent with established Braak staging anatomy, demonstrating that SC encode spatially specific information about regional tau distribution in AD.

The number of malware (either variant or novel) is rapidly increasing, making malware detection and mitigation a complex problem. One approach to improving malware mitigation is automatic detection and malware family classification. However, traditional malware detection methods cannot classify detected malware into their respective families, hindering effective malware mitigation. Consequently, this paper proposes a method to automate malware detection and classification of the detected malware into respective malware families. The proposed method uses feature fusion after extracting relevant malware features such as API calls and fixed and variable length n-grams with a customized feature selection method. Moreover, for the predictive model, a voting based approach is proposed for algorithm fusion. For the experimental evaluation of the proposed method, both binary and multi-class classification approaches are applied to the data set provided by Microsoft. Finally, the experimental results are compared with the state of the art. The experimental results indicate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach with an AUC of 0.989, accuracy of 99.72%, and a log loss of 0.01.

Self-harm is a major public health concern, but current surveillance relying on hospital presentations is inadequate due to the low sensitivity of diagnostic codes. Emergency Department (ED) triage notes, recorded at the initial point of contact, provide a succinct summary of presentations and an opportunity to identify self-harm. We developed a three-stage approach, augmenting traditional machine learning with large language model-based screening and evidence extraction to detect self-harm in ED triage notes. We assessed model transferability across three Australian hospitals. Our approach showed AUPRCs of 0.887 +/- 0.016 and 0.884 +/- 0.012 during internal and external validation. Prospectively, it achieved AUPRC of 0.881 +/- 0.008 at the development site, and 0.879 +/- 0.012 and 0.816 +/- 0.015 at two external sites without site-specific retraining. A key advantage of the approach is that it enables identification of the primary self-harm method with an accuracy of 95%, supporting more granular surveillance beyond binary classification.

Small-to-medium scientific datasets place machine learning pipelines under two compounding pressures. Single-run feature selection produces feature sets that change substantially under small perturbations of the training data, and any procedure that uses the same data for selection, tuning, and evaluation produces optimistically biased performance estimates. The two failure modes are routinely treated as separable, but in the regimes where scientific data live, they interact: an unstable selection inflates the variance of an already-optimistic score, and standard remedies for one rarely address the other. RobustModelMaker is a Python framework that couples bootstrap stability selection with strict nested cross-validation, performs all preprocessing and selection inside each fold, and produces a stability-tested feature subset together with a leakage-safe performance estimate. The framework supports nine algorithms across binary classification, multiclass classification, and regression. Behaviour is verified by a deterministic test suite spanning unit, performance, and reproducibility checks on three real scientific datasets comparing to three alternative selectors (ANOVA F-test, recursive feature elimination with cross-validation, and Boruta) on both predictive score and a Jaccard measure of selection stability. RobustModelMaker is competitive in score with the best alternative selector on each dataset, and occupies a position on the joint score-stability frontier that none of the alternatives match across all three task types. Two example applications, ovarian cancer biomarker discovery from the PLCO Trial and critical-temperature regression on the UCI Superconductivity Data, illustrate how the framework is used in practice and what trade-offs become visible when stability is treated as a first-class deliverable rather than an emergent property.

Emergent misalignment (EM) occurs when narrow finetuning causes a model to behave dangerously outside the finetuning task. Standard training signals can miss this shift, making reliable detection costly if it depends on repeated behavioral evaluation. We ask whether emergent misalignment can instead be detected from internal representations during finetuning. Using seven alignment-relevant traits encoded as linear directions in activation space, we track representational drift across training checkpoints in four open-source 7-9B LLMs. EM-relevant drift concentrates on a low-dimensional axis that explains 65.5% of the variance, revealing a geometric signature in the studied regime. A low-overhead monitor built on this drift profile detects dangerous checkpoints with 2.2% false negative rate, 2.9% false positive rate, and 0.990 AUROC on held-out perturbation types, outperforming unsupervised PCA and SAE baselines. Stress tests on two 14B models, longer finetuning runs, and misaligned starting points identify key deployment boundaries. These results position trait-space monitoring as a practical complement to behavioral evaluation for EM detection during LoRA-based finetuning, while showing that deployment across substantially different regimes may require recalibration.

Recursive systems can enter collapse-like regimes -- self-reinforcing amplification, persistent recursion, and narrowing diversity that mask accelerating internal degradation -- before overt failure becomes visible. We introduce Loopzero, a claim-bounded benchmark framework for testing whether recursive failures follow a directional telemetry pattern: rising gain (G), recursive persistence (p), and declining diversity ($δ$). The claim boundary is specified in Lean; the Lean artifact does not verify real telemetry, benchmark validity, or detector performance. We evaluate the bridge on two frozen public-artifact benchmarks: a segmented public-markets benchmark (Volmageddon 2018, COVID MWCB 2020) and a MovieLens-25M offline deterministic recommender replay. Detectors are evaluated under a locked equal-false-positive contract (FP $\in$ [0.03, 0.07], pre-registered) so all configurations face the same alert budget. Neither tested standard comparators nor Loopzero's pre-registered quantile detector achieved an accepted operating point. Directional witness alignment held on both canonical benchmarks, with adjacent-horizon and row-level limitations disclosed. Digitized Shumailov et al. (2024) LLM training-loop trajectories are directionally consistent with the pattern; matched-FP evaluation in that domain is deferred. The contribution is a reproducible, falsifiable benchmark framework for evaluating recursive-collapse warning claims under an explicit alert-budget contract -- non-acceptance reported as a first-class scientific outcome.

Clustering is widely used across the sciences as the foundation for downstream data-driven scientific discoveries. However, clustering results are highly sensitive to the choice of algorithm, preprocessing, and the number of clusters $k$, producing scientific claims that are often not reproducible. The current state of the art for validating clustering solutions consists of clustering validation indices (CVIs) such as Silhouette, Davies-Bouldin, and Calinski-Harabasz, which rely on geometric assumptions that break down on the heavy-tailed, high-dimensional, and nonlinearly structured data encountered in biomedical research. Resampling-based alternatives - grounded in the ideas of clustering stability and generalizability - have been proposed but remain scattered across specialized tools with no unified, accessible software. We fill this gap with CARVE (Cluster Analysis with Resampling for Validation and Exploration), an open-source Python and R package that jointly evaluates multiple clustering algorithms and hyperparameters, returning stability and generalizability diagnostics at the global, cluster, and sample level together with principled selection rules and consensus-based cluster labels. Across six synthetic benchmarks CARVE consistently recovers near-optimal clusterings where classical indices degrade substantially. On experimental genomics and proteomics data sets, CARVE recovers finer biological structure when classical CVIs collapse entirely. CARVE is available with a scikit-learn-compatible Python API and an analogous R interface compatible with Seurat workflows.

Multilingual orthopedic decision support remains challenging in low-resource healthcare settings, where clinical narratives contain specialized terminology, mixed scripts, incomplete evidence, label imbalance and language-dependent documentation patterns. This article presents a reliability-oriented framework for classifying free-text orthopedic notes in English, Hindi and Punjabi. We compare task-aligned multilingual transformer encoders, a task-fine-tuned DistilBERT baseline, zero-shot instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) and a domain-adaptive encoder, IndicBERT-HPA. IndicBERT-HPA augments IndicBERT with language-aware orthopedic adapter heads to support clinically relevant multilingual representation learning. Evaluation extends beyond aggregate accuracy to per-class performance, ROC-AUC, AUPRC, expected calibration error, cross-language stability and robustness under controlled balanced and natural-prevalence distributions. The evaluated zero-shot LLMs remain substantially less effective than task-adapted encoders for closed-set classification, with language-dependent instability. Under natural clinical prevalence, IndicBERT-HPA achieves the strongest overall performance, reaching an averaged Macro-F1 of 0.8792, Macro-AUROC of 0.894 and AUPRC of 0.902. We further implement a deterministic selective-verification layer combining confidence gating, evidence-consistency checking and language-risk screening. On a randomly selected held-out 5,000-record subset, it achieves 84.4% selective accuracy and 0.76 selective Macro-F1 at 72.3% coverage, compared with 71.5% accuracy and 0.65 Macro-F1 for accept-all prediction. These results support reliability-oriented multilingual clinical decision support with explicit deferral.

Modern network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) are caught in a structural contradiction: the protocols carrying the highest threat intelligence are precisely those encrypted under TLS 1.3 and QUIC, where payload inspection yields nothing. We ask a simpler question -- what if the attack signature is not in the bytes, but in the rhythm? -- and answer it by treating network flows as a language whose grammar is written entirely in L3/L4 packet metadata: length, inter-arrival time, TTL, TCP flags, and hashed port numbers. We present PLM-NIDS, which proves three claims in sequence. (1) The grammar exists and is learnable: a RWKV-4 state-space model trained on 344,232 unlabelled Monday flows achieves a causal LM validation loss of 0.204, demonstrating that benign traffic has predictable, statistically consistent structure. (2) Attacks violate this grammar: the per-flow perplexity score cleanly separates benign from attack flows with PR-AUC = 0.93 using zero attack labels at training time. (3) This separation is architecturally nontrivial: an LSTM trained on identical token sequences degenerates to a majority-class predictor (ROC-AUC approximately 0.50, F1 = 0.91 by always predicting "attack"), proving that RWKV's causal pre-training provides an inductive bias unavailable to direct classifiers. Supervised fine-tuning further raises PR-AUC to 0.94 and ROC-AUC to 0.75, with a precision of 97.7% at the calibrated operating threshold. The RWKV backbone's O(T) recurrent inference enables per-packet streaming without flow buffering, making PLM-NIDS operationally viable at line rate. Because it reads only IP/TCP/UDP headers, it is inherently encryption-agnostic: TLS 1.3, QUIC, and future encrypted protocols are handled transparently.

Adaptive sensing strategies that selectively sample data are increasingly used in wearable health systems to improve prediction performance under limited data budgets, yet their benefits across individuals remain poorly understood. Here, we evaluate adaptive selection of time windows for model training under fixed measurement budgets across multiple sensing modalities, including heart rate, activity, and ecological momentary assessment (EMA), in a longitudinal wearable dataset. We quantify performance gains relative to random sampling using both area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and F1 score. Adaptive strategies yield substantial improvements in AUROC for participants with low baseline performance (with gains up to 0.7), while offering limited or negative gains for participants with strong baselines. Across modalities, adaptive gain is strongly inversely correlated with baseline performance (Pearson r = -0.67; Spearman p = -0.62). At the participant level, most individuals benefit in AUROC (60-80% across modalities), although improvements in F1 are smaller and less consistent. These findings show that adaptive sensing is not uniformly beneficial, but instead provides the greatest value in underperforming settings. Our results support selective deployment strategies that tailor adaptive sensing based on baseline performance to improve efficiency in wearable health monitoring.

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable and is treated symmetrically during training. However, these assumptions are impractical in many settings, such as time series, where temporal dependence violates exchangeability and it is preferable to use predictors that leverage dependence by treating data asymmetrically. Recent work shows that split conformal prediction is robust to these issues, but sample splitting can reduce accuracy, motivating the study of methods that do not rely on data splitting in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a modification tailored to such settings, which we term the leave-a-window-out (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from cyclic exchangeability, which we introduce new coefficients to measure. Experiments on time series demonstrate that our method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

Detecting subtle visual anomalies in images remains challenging, particularly when only normal samples are available a priori. Such unsupervised anomaly detection is typically solved by measuring feature similarity of a query patch to a memory of normal patches. However, similarity alone does not reveal how strongly a query patch violates the structure of the normal feature manifold. We propose a training-free Laplacian graph energy optimization formulation, named ANoCo that scores Anomaly by the cost of Non-Conformity of a query patch to align with a fixed normal manifold. For each query patch, we construct a bipartite query to normal graph weighted by cosine affinity, explicitly removing query-query and normal-normal edges to prevent evidence dilution. We formulate anomaly scoring as a convex Laplacian energy with anchored normal nodes, and solve in closed form. In particular, we do not use the optimized features themselves-the anomaly score is the magnitude of the update required to satisfy normality constraints, reframing the graph Laplacian as a non-conformity operator rather than a smoothing prior. The proposed method introduces no learnable parameters, message passing, or sampling, and has complexity comparable to a single linear solve. Across standard benchmarks, it delivers strong image-level AUROC, stable localization maps, and improved robustness over prior methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of using optimization-induced feature drift as anomaly measure.

We present a unified experiment, analysis, and benchmark study of multivariate time-series (MTS) anomaly detection. Ten family-representative detectors -- spanning statistical, reconstruction, association, frequency, and generic-transformer families -- are evaluated on five datasets (SMD, MSL, SMAP, PSM, and MSDS) under effectiveness, efficiency, robustness, and cross-dataset generalisation. All methods share the same windowing, scoring, hardware, and metric protocols. Effectiveness, ablation, and robustness use three random seeds; cross-dataset transfer uses seed~0 because each extra seed requires $250$ source-target evaluations. The benchmark yields three method-independent findings: no single-bias baseline dominates; absolute perturbation VUS-ROC is more informative than retention ratios; and MSDS behaves as an event-dense deployment workload rather than a sparse point-anomaly benchmark. Under this protocol we also introduce \ours{}, an adaptive detector family combining a NOTEARS-constrained directed channel-graph view with optional patch-attention and temporal-association views. \ours{} achieves the best macro-average VUS-ROC ($0.675$, $+5.1$~pt over the second-best LSTM-AE), ranks first overall, and reaches the top-3 on all five datasets. Its wins on MSL and MSDS are narrow, while its average and robustness gains are larger: under the same three-seed robustness protocol for every method, it obtains the strongest absolute VUS-ROC across noise, channel dropout, and time-shift perturbations. We release the MSDS preprocessing protocol, configurations, scripts, and seed-level metric dumps.

Long-context language models now advertise context windows up to millions of tokens, yet evaluations typically report a single length or a narrow task family, masking two failure modes: performance can collapse as length grows, and strong retrieval need not transfer to downstream use. We present ATLAS, a benchmarking framework that redefines long-context evaluation as length-dependent capability profiling. ATLAS contributes three methodological principles:(i) a layered taxonomy separating foundational operations from application workloads so failures can be attributed, (ii) length-aware AUC scoring that integrates score-length curves over a fixed 8K-1M grid, replacing single-point metrics with full degradation profiles, and (iii) ATLAScore, a harmonic-mean aggregate over taxonomy categories that penalizes imbalanced profiles, with end-to-end uncertainty propagation from subset scores through the nonlinear final aggregate. We instantiate the framework across eight capability dimensions with nine auditable components and 6,438 instances, and evaluate 26 models. Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview leads at 128K, Claude-Opus-4.6 leads at 1M. Rankings reshuffle substantially between ATLASscore@8K-128K and ATLASscore@8K-1M: 7 models move by at least two ranks, and the two taxonomy layers share only 61% of cross-model variance, with individual rank gaps up to 12 positions. These results support reporting long-context quality by capability and length, not by a single headline score.

Linear probes trained on LLM activations are increasingly proposed as deception-detection metrics, yet report AUROC exceeding 0.96 on clean benchmarks while collapsing under distributional shift. This paper systematically pressure-tests probe-based metrics across the Gemma 3 model family (1B-27B parameters), diagnosing why they fail rather than merely documenting that they fail. We test four hypotheses about deception encoding: (1) single linear direction, (2) multi-dimensional subspace, (3) convex conic hull, (4) entropy proxy. Our design includes cross-domain transfer matrices, multi-dimensional probe analysis with permutation null baselines, entropy-residualization tests, and distractor evaluations across 8 stylistic shifts. We find that: (a) probes achieve near-perfect AUROC (>=0.998) on clean data but collapse under stylistic shifts; style-augmented probes recover near-perfect detection (mean AUROC 0.979-0.983) on unseen styles; (b) the single-direction hypothesis is rejected (k=1 captures only 0.61-0.80 AUROC), with cross-domain transfer failure confirmed as geometric rather than layer-mismatch-driven; (c) the entropy-proxy hypothesis is rejected (max |rho|=0.454, max Delta-AUROC after residualization=0.004); and (d) deception does not form a significant linear subspace (per-domain k*=0), yet multi-dimensional probes (k>=5) recover the signal through distributed sub-threshold features. Probe fragility reflects distributional narrowness rather than an architectural limitation: style-augmented probes recover near-perfect detection at both 4B and 27B, establishing that the inverse scaling pattern is a training-distribution artifact rather than a genuine scale-dependent phenomenon.

Ultrasound is widely used in obstetric care due to its safety, accessibility, and real-time imaging. However, interpretation remains operator-dependent and susceptible to noise and artifacts. Deep learning models have shown strong performance to solve these problem, but they typically require large annotated datasets that are difficult to obtain in clinical ultrasound. Foundation models (FMs) offer an alternative, using a large number of ultrasound images to learn transferable representations that can generalize with limited labeled data. This work presents a comprehensive benchmark of ultrasound-specific FMs for fetal plane classification. We evaluated four ultrasound FMs (USFM, MOFO, UltraSAM, FetalCLIP) against two CNN baselines (ResNet50, EfficientNet-V2) and a ViT (DINOv3) pretrained on natural images. We trained all models under two complementary settings: full fine-tuning and linear probing with a frozen encoder. All models were trained using 5-fold patient-level cross-validation on a Spanish fetal ultrasound dataset and tested on both in-domain data and an external African cohort to assess cross-population generalization. We found that FetalCLIP achieved the best results in the linear probing setting (F1 = 0.9261 for in-domain, F1 = 0.9731 for out-of-domain), while USFM performed best in the full fine-tuning setting (F1 = 0.9476 for in-domain, F1 = 0.9515 for out-of-domain). MOFO and UltraSAM degraded most in both settings, underperforming natural image pretrained models in some cases. These findings highlight how the choice of pretrained model strongly affects fetal plane classification performance, since different pretraining objectives lead to different levels of transferability.

Customer churn prediction is essential across data-driven industries such as insurance, digital banking, eCommerce, and subscription platforms, where retaining existing customers is typically more cost-effective than acquiring new ones. Predicting churn on structured datasets remains challenging due to class imbalance, nonlinear feature interactions, and heterogeneous feature types. Tree-based ensemble methods consistently demonstrate strong performance in these contexts, often outperforming conventional neural networks. This study introduces a validated hybrid architecture that integrates feature-tokenized transformers (FT-Transformer) with gradient-boosted trees through calibration-aware stacking. The proposed framework addresses persistent gaps in statistical validation, probability calibration, and reproducibility found in prior research. The FT-Transformer captures higher-order feature interactions using self-attention, while XGBoost captures gradient-boosted decision boundaries with complementary inductive biases. Class imbalance is handled using class-weighted loss functions, thereby avoiding synthetic oversampling and preserving minority-class distributions. The models are ensembled using out-of-fold (OOF) stacking with a logistic regression meta-learner, which recalibrates overconfident base model outputs and learns optimal combination weights. On a public bank churn dataset, the hybrid model achieves 62.10% F1, 0.861 AUC-ROC, and 0.647 PR-AUC, outperforming the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) baseline by 3.37 F1 points and 0.027 AUC under 5x5 cross-validation with 95% confidence intervals reported. Ablation studies demonstrate that both the transformer component and stacking strategy contribute materially to performance. The proposed methodology offers a reproducible and extensible reference architecture for contemporary churn prediction on structured tabular data.

Anomaly detection (AD) under data contamination is critical for deploying unsupervised defect detection in industrial environments, where curating perfectly clean training sets is impractical. However, existing methods are sensitive to contamination, suffering significant performance degradation as the noise ratio increases. In this paper, we propose Memory-Distilled Selection (MeDS), a training algorithm based on data selection. MeDS constructs an ensemble of partial memories via random subsampling, where the resulting sparsity acts as a low-pass filter that captures nominal patterns across a wide range of noise ratios, enabling coarse-level identification of contaminated samples. The aggregated distances to the bootstrapped memories are then distilled into a reconstruction score network, which is subsequently fine-tuned on clean data filtered using scores from the distilled model, enabling fine-grained localization of anomalies. MeDS is robust across a wide range of noise ratios without requiring noise-ratio-specific hyperparameter tuning, achieving 99.16% image-level AUROC on MVTecAD at a 40% noise ratio, and attaining state-of-the-art performance on both VisA and Real-IAD under noisy settings. We thoroughly verify the efficacy of MeDS on industrial AD benchmarks under noisy data scenarios, accompanied by in-depth empirical analyses.

We study the mean-squared error of $k$-fold cross-validation as a risk estimator, with particular emphasis on how its accuracy depends on the number of folds $k$. Despite the widespread use of cross-validation, principled guidance for choosing $k$ is largely absent, mainly due to the complex dependence between fold-wise error estimates. To obtain sharp and interpretable results, we focus on the majority algorithm in binary classification, a minimal yet nontrivial empirical risk minimization procedure. We provide a fine-grained analysis of its cross-validation behavior, showing that even this simple algorithm exhibits subtle and delicate phenomena for which existing theory provides loose and even vacuous bounds. Leveraging this analysis, we introduce a minimax framework for cross-validation risk estimation and prove that no empirical risk minimization algorithm can achieve an $O(1/n)$ minimax mean-squared error when the number of folds grows with the number of samples $n$; instead, a lower bound of order $Ω(\sqrt{k}/n)$ is unavoidable. Our results reveal fundamental limitations of cross-validation as a data-reuse strategy, clarify gaps and inaccuracies in prior theoretical work, and position the majority algorithm as a natural benchmark that any tight analysis of cross-validation should be able to explain.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) are popular methods for empirically assessing the leakage of sensitive information in the training data through models or statistics learned from the data. The MIA vulnerability is often evaluated through false positive rate (FPR) and true positive rate (TPR) of a binary classifier that tries to predict whether a particular sample was in the training data. However, in order to reliably estimate the TPR especially for low FPR values, a lot of observations are needed, which in case of MIA translates to many target models, leading to large computational cost. To avoid excessive compute requirements, the MIA scores are often averaged over multiple individuals and multiple targeted models. We demonstrate two key weaknesses in this efficient MIA evaluation pipeline. First, we show that evaluating the TPR based on MIA scores concatenated across multiple individuals, commonly used to study vulnerabilities in the very low FPR regime, is not calibrated across the per-sample FPRs. This makes it unreliable as a tool for auditing differential privacy. To solve this, we propose a post-processing method to effectively calibrate the FPR across different samples. Second, we identify a finite population bias in the commonly used efficient likelihood-ratio attack (LiRA) implementation proposed by Carlini et al. 2022, leading to a positive bias in the per-sample vulnerability.

Purpose: Digitization projects in the humanities produce vast, heterogeneous archives of historical documents, making manual sorting impractical at scale. This work addresses the need for an automated system to classify scanned page images based on visual content type - text, tables, and graphics - enabling content-specific downstream processing such as Optical Character Recognition (OCR) or structured data extraction. Methods: An image classification system was developed and evaluated on a dataset of over 48,000 annotated historical page images from century-old Czech archaeological archives, refined through four successive annotation stages with domain-expert review. A Random Forest Classifier baseline was established using hand-crafted image features. Subsequently, deep learning architectures were fine-tuned and compared: Convolutional Neural Networks (EfficientNetV2, RegNetY), Vision and Document Image Transformers (ViT, DiT), and multimodal CLIP models. An 11-category label scheme was designed collaboratively with domain experts and evaluated via five-fold cross-validation. Results: The feature-based baseline achieved approximately 75% accuracy. Fine-tuned CNNs and Transformers substantially outperformed it, with RegNetY-16GF achieving 99.16% and ViT-large 99.12% Top-1 accuracy on the held-out test set. CLIP ViT-B/16 reached 99.14% with optimized text descriptions. Conclusion: Image-only models, particularly RegNetY-16GF, deliver near-perfect classification accuracy and produce consistent labels across 649,508 unlabeled archival pages with over 90% inter-model agreement. Fine-tuned CLIP, despite competitive test-set accuracy, showed under 65% agreement with image-only models on unlabeled data, making it less suitable for deployment. The final models, annotated dataset, and software are publicly available under open-source licenses.

Many practical anomalies are not merely rare inputs, but violations of semantic constraints: objects co-occur in structured ways, actions imply preconditions, and events satisfy temporal or relational regularities. We study anomaly detection in this setting, where constraints are given as logical rules over learned visual concepts, but real rule violations are rare or absent during training. We propose a neural rule evaluator that compiles each constraint into a directed acyclic graph and learns feature-aware subtree MLP gates for its internal logical operators. Each gate maps child features and edge-level negations to a parent representation and a rule-satisfaction probability, with intermediate supervision obtained from exact Boolean propagation over ground-truth concept labels. The key difficulty is that same-image training data often provide insufficient coverage of informative truth configurations and also allow shortcut solutions. To address this, we introduce chimera training: an operand-level counterfactual construction at the feature level. Instead of mixing input images, we concatenate subtree features from different samples; each operand keeps the hard truth label of the sample it came from, and the chimera target is obtained by applying the node's logical operator to those inherited labels. This supplies supervised logical counterexamples without requiring real anomalous images. Across CLEVRER, OpenImages, and VidOR, the resulting evaluator improves rule-level anomaly AUROC over independent-events and same-image semantic-training baselines, especially for compositional and relational rules. The method yields both scalar anomaly scores and rule-level attributions.

Classical noisy-label theory predicts that downstream performance under weak supervision is bounded above by the labeler's accuracy, implying a sharp crossover: once a gold-trained classifier matches the labeler, weak labels stop helping and start hurting. The prediction is theoretical; what is missing is a benchmark calibration that turns it into an instance-level statement for modern foundation-model labelers. We provide such a calibration for BiomedCLIP-generated weak labels on three medical-imaging benchmarks (PCAM, ISIC, NIH-CXR) and six downstream architectures spanning an 11x parameter range. The crossover predicted by theory appears at ng~100 on PCAM, 20-50 on ISIC, and 250-500 on NIH-CXR; weak labels above the crossover degrade AUC by up to -0.10. The location is architecture-invariant for four of five pretrained architectures, and a within-family DenseNet sweep (2.5x parameters, identical pretraining) supports the view that the labeler, not the student, is the dominant constraint. The calibration in turn produces a decision rule operable from 10-20 gold labels: compare gold-only AUC to VLM accuracy on the user's gold set. A structured-vs-random noise sign flip on NIH-CXR shows that the rate-only formulation of the bound is incomplete and identifies a concrete refinement (label-space projection) that future benchmarks can be designed to test.

The increasing use of automated translation quality estimation (QE) systems calls for practical, decision-oriented methods for evaluating their performance. We propose that Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis is a useful approach for this purpose. Our study shows that ROC analysis not only produces results consistent with currently prevalent methods, but also offers several important advantages, including actionable performance insights that support business decision-making.

Streaming intrusion-detection studies assemble evaluation streams from network captures by interleaving capture days, pooling captures, or replaying records round robin. We show on two benchmarks that this assembly is an uncontrolled experimental treatment changing what the evaluation measures. On CICIDS2017, reordering an identical record multiset under a fixed positional 70/15/15 split yields held-out samples sharing only 32.5% of their records, at prevalences of 68.235% and 25.2396% (42.9954 points apart), and reverses the measured ordering of the two deterministic scorers. Restricting both arms to the 78000 records both held out removes the reversal, so it is attributable to which records the assembly hands to the test set, not to the order in which the detector saw its history. That attribution assumes that history contributes no more on the records the arms do not share than on those they do. On LITNET-2020, pooling three temporally disjoint captures reports one 6.4982% operating point, the equal-weight mean of per-capture held-out prevalences from 0.176% to 15.7747%, an identity presented as an audit check. The evaluated detector's reset posterior P(r_t=0) equals the hazard rate exactly below the run-length cap, though evaluations spend nearly all their length at or beyond it, and its evaluated score is a function of P(r<=5), not of P(r=0). Its deployed max composition ranks worse than its tail term alone (0.103477 AP, 0.302658 AUC-ROC) because the auxiliary branch is inverted (AUC-ROC 0.281890) and the maximum lets it set the score wherever the tail is small. With evaluated records and fitted model fixed, changing only the accompanying batch moves the ECOD reference implementation's AUC-PR by 0.003063, so published ECOD numbers are not comparable across studies scoring different batches. Every measured value traces to an archived, hash-verified run manifest.

Discrete diffusion models are often trained through clean-data prediction, but the prediction can be used in different ways to define the reverse dynamics. In Masked Diffusion Models (MDM) these choices largely coincide, whereas in Uniform Diffusion Models (UDM) they do not. We show that the standard plug-in bridge parameterization for UDM is not optimized by the denoising posterior, but by a leave-one-out posterior that predicts each clean token without using its own noisy observation. This identifies a mismatch between the plug-in ELBO and the usual cross-entropy denoising objective. We characterize the leave-one-out target and derive exact conversions between the denoiser, the leave-one-out posterior, and the score. These conversions allow us to disentangle parameterization and training objective. Our results also lead to inference improvements without any additional training through an informed predictor-corrector sampler and improved temperature sampling based on the leave-one-out predictor. We further introduce an absorbing-state reformulation of uniform diffusion that preserves the UDM joint law while decomposing it into masked-diffusion-like sampling operations, with simpler denoising posteriors, carry-over unmasking, and a natural remasking mechanism. On language modeling, leave-one-out parameterizations consistently improve UDM generation, while the absorbing construction matches or surpasses masked diffusion. These results suggest that the empirical gap between masked and uniform diffusion is driven less by the choice of marginals themselves than by parameterization and sampling design. The code and models can be found at https://github.com/samsongourevitch/rev_udm.

Accurate classification of breast ultrasound images into benign, malignant, and normal categories is a critical clinical task complicated by speckle noise, acoustic shadowing, and inter-class visual ambiguity. Existing deep learning methods rely on single-stream architectures with generic augmentation that ignores ultrasound acquisition physics, and no prior method dedicates a stream to the lesion boundary features identified as the most diagnostically significant visual cue. We propose HADS-Net, a Hybrid Attention-Augmented Dual-Stream Network exploiting global texture and local boundary cues through two parallel pathways. Stream 1 applies physics-informed augmentation simulating speckle noise, acoustic shadowing, and gain variation before extracting features via pretrained EfficientNet-B3 projected to 512 dimensions. Stream 2 extracts Sobel edge maps processed by a lightweight CNN projected to the same 512-dimensional space. A cross-attention fusion module allows the texture stream to selectively query boundary features, producing a jointly optimised representation classified by an MLP trained with adaptive class-weighted focal loss. Five-fold stratified cross-validation with cosine annealing over 50 epochs is used, with the globally best checkpoint selected by lowest validation loss evaluated on a held-out test set. On the BUSI dataset, HADS-Net achieves 96.58% accuracy, macro ROC-AUC of 0.9978, macro F1 of 0.9654, and per-class F1-scores of 0.970, 0.951, and 0.976 for benign, malignant, and normal. No malignant lesion is misclassified as normal. These results confirm that modality-specific augmentation with cross-modal attention fusion is an effective strategy for ultrasound-based breast cancer diagnosis.

Diagnostic performance in medical AI varies systematically across demographic groups, yet subgroup AUC can mask clinically important disparities. At a fixed inference-time operating point, some groups may exhibit over-diagnostic behaviour, characterized by elevated true and false positive rates, while others show under-diagnostic patterns with reduced true and false positive rates. These opposing tendencies can cancel in aggregate AUCs while producing meaningful inequities in clinical decision-making. Motivated by the need to assess and mitigate such disparities at the operating point and across multiple demographic attributes simultaneously, we propose a worst-group equalized-odds margin regularizer. The proposed regularizer explicitly targets subgroup-level deviations on both the true positive and false positive sides at inference. At each update, the method identifies subgroups defined by explicit demographic attributes (e.g., age, sex, and race) that exhibit the most extreme margin deviations and applies a unified penalty, enabling fairness optimization across multiple demographic axes without requiring explicit intersectional constraints. Across two medical imaging datasets in realistic multi-label settings, our method consistently reduces disparities in Equalized Odds and Equalized Opportunity with minimal impact on AUC, preserving diagnostic performance while improving fairness.

Tensor-valued data arise naturally in neuroimaging, genomics, climate science, and spatiotemporal networks, where multilinear dependencies across modes carry information that is destroyed under vectorization. Existing approaches either impose a single low-rank structure, which can miss localized signal, or treat the tensor as a long vector, which discards its multiway geometry. We propose a Dual-Channel Tensor Neural Network (DC-TNN) that decomposes each tensor input into a low-rank core and a sparse refinement, and processes the two components through coupled neural channels. The framework is structure-agnostic and accommodates CP, Tucker, and tensor-train cores within a single architecture. For estimation, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds for the DC-TNN estimator that decompose into network approximation, core estimation, and refinement-selection terms, and show that the effective dimension is determined jointly by the core rank and refinement sparsity rather than by the ambient tensor size. For inference, we develop a structure-aware conformal ROC procedure that calibrates within the core-refinement latent space and produces ROC and AUC confidence bands with finite-sample, distribution-free coverage. Building on this, we propose a conformal structure selector that, to our knowledge, is the first distribution-free procedure for choosing among candidate tensor decompositions with finite-sample validity. Simulations and an analysis of a protein dataset demonstrate competitive predictive accuracy, reliable uncertainty quantification, and consistent recovery of the tensor structure.

Ensemble disagreement is widely used as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty in medical image segmentation. In practice, many studies form ensembles via K-fold cross-validation (CV), yet refer to them as ``deep ensembles'' (DE). Because CV members are trained on different data subsets, their disagreement mixes seed-driven variability with data-exposure effects, which can change how uncertainty should be interpreted. We audit recent segmentation uncertainty studies and find that terminology--implementation mismatches are common. We then compare a standard 5-fold CV ensemble to a 5-member DE (fixed training set, different random seeds) under otherwise identical configurations on three multi-rater segmentation datasets spanning three modalities. We evaluate uncertainty for calibration, failure detection, ambiguity modeling, and robustness under distribution shift. DE match segmentation accuracy while improving calibration and failure detection, whereas CV ensembles sometimes correlate more strongly with inter-rater variability on the studied datasets. Thus, ensemble construction should be chosen to match the research question: DE for reliability-oriented use (e.g., selective referral/failure detection) and CV ensembles as a proxy for ambiguity. We provide a lightweight nnU-Net modification enabling DE training within the default pipeline.

Anomaly detection in batch processes is hindered by transient dynamics, scarce fault labels, and reliance on single-modality sensor data. This work introduces UTOPYA (Unified Temporal Observation for Physics-Informed Anomaly Detection and Time-Series Prediction), a 15.2M-parameter multimodal framework that jointly addresses anomaly detection, time-series prediction, and phase classification in batch distillation by fusing eight data modalities through Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM) conditioned cross-modal attention and gated fusion. A physics-informed regularisation scheme introduced in this work enforces temporal smoothness and thermodynamic monotonicity, while curriculum learning introduces training samples in order of physical difficulty. On the 119-experiment multimodal batch distillation dataset of Arweiler et al. (2026), UTOPYA achieves a window-level test AUROC of 0.832 and 0.874 under multi-signal experiment-level scoring, substantially outperforming four external baselines (PCA, autoencoder, Isolation Forest, and LSTM autoencoder) evaluated under identical conditions (+0.147 window-level AUROC over the best baseline). A multimodal ablation over 15~architectural configurations shows that static context via FiLM conditioning is the key enabler, lifting experiment-level multi-signal AUROC by +0.145 over the unimodal baseline (0.729 to 0.874). Separately, a training ablation across 14 design choices reveals that several widely-adopted techniques, including instance normalisation, Mixup, ensembling, test-time augmentation, and stochastic weight averaging, fail to improve or actively degrade generalisation in this data-scarce setting. These negative results expose a fundamental tension between smoothing-based regularisation and anomaly detection, providing practical guidance for multimodal process monitoring deployment.

Large language models (LLMs) generate not only reasoning text, but also token-level confidence trajectories that record how uncertainty evolves during inference. Whether these trajectories are relevant to reasoning correctness remains unclear. Here we show that confidence trajectories encode a content-agnostic confidence geometry associated with trace-level final-answer correctness. Using only token-level confidence values, without access to the input question, reasoning text, hidden states, or external verifiers, we find that low-dimensional representations of confidence trajectories separate correct from incorrect reasoning traces. Across GSM8K, MATH, and MMLU, this geometric separation is quantitatively linked to downstream predictability: stronger clustering of correct and incorrect traces, measured by the Davies--Bouldin index, consistently corresponds to higher correctness-discrimination AUC. We further show that correctness-related information is enriched in the tail of reasoning, suggesting that late-stage confidence dynamics carry key correctness signals. We propose NeuralConf, a lightweight estimator that learns from confidence trajectories for correctness evaluation. Under a fixed trace budget, NeuralConf-derived scores improve confidence-weighted answer aggregation over majority voting, tail confidence, and other static baselines. These results reveal that LLMs expose trace-intrinsic statistical signals of correctness through their own confidence dynamics, offering a route to improve inference using information already present within generation.

Context. Behaviour-Driven Development (BDD) test suites accumulate duplicated step subsequences. Three published refactoring patterns are available (within-file Background, within-repo reusable-scenario invocation, cross-organisational shared higher-level step), but no prior work automates which recurring subsequences are worth extracting or which mechanism applies. Objective. Rank recurring step subsequences ("slices") by refactoring suitability (extraction-worthy), pre-map each to one of the three patterns, and quantify prevalence across the public BDD ecosystem. Method. Every contiguous L-step window (L in [2, 18]) in a 339-repository / 276-upstream-owner Gherkin corpus is keyed by paraphrase-robust cluster identifiers and counted under three scopes. SBERT / UMAP / HDBSCAN clustering recovers paraphrase-equivalent slices. Three authors label a stratified 200-slice pool against a written rubric. An XGBoost extraction-worthy classifier trained under 5-fold cross-validation is compared with a tuned rule baseline and two open-weight Large Language Model (LLM) judges. Results. The miner produces 5,382,249 slices collapsing to 692,020 recurring patterns. Three-author Fleiss' kappa = 0.56 (extraction-worthy) and 0.79 (mechanism). The classifier reaches out-of-fold F1 = 0.891 (95% CI [0.852, 0.927]), outperforming both the rule baseline (F1 = 0.836, p = 0.017) and the better LLM judge (F1 = 0.728, p = 1.5e-4). 75.0%, 59.5%, and 11.7% of scenarios carry a within-file Background, within-repo reusable-scenario, and cross-organisational shared-step candidate, respectively; the figures are stable under a sweep of the classifier decision threshold. Conclusion. Paraphrase-robust subscenario discovery yields a corpus-wide census of BDD refactoring candidates; pipeline, classifier predictions, labelled pool, and rubric are released under Apache-2.0.

Scientific machine learning reports predictive performance. It does not report whether the same prediction would survive a different draw of training data. Across $9$ chemistry benchmarks, two classifiers trained on independent bootstraps of the same training set agree on aggregate accuracy to within $1.3\text{--}4.2$ percentage points but disagree on the class label of $8.0\text{--}21.8\%$ of test molecules. We call this gap \emph{cross-sample prediction churn}. The standard parameter-side techniques (deep ensembles, MC dropout, stochastic weight averaging) do not reduce this gap; two data-side methods do. The first is $K$-bootstrap bagging, which cuts the rate $40\text{--}54\%$ on every dataset at no accuracy cost ($K{\times}$-ERM compute). The second is \emph{twin-bootstrap}, our proposal: two networks trained jointly on independent bootstraps with a sym-KL consistency loss between their predictions, which at matched $2{\times}$-ERM compute reduces churn a further median $45\%$ beyond bagging-$K{=}2$. Cross-sample prediction churn deserves a column alongside predictive performance in scientific-ML benchmark reports, because without it the parameter-side and data-side methods are indistinguishable on the metric they actually differ on.

This paper audits benchmark evaluation in clinical-interview depression detection through four complementary probes across DAIC/E-DAIC, CMDC, ANDROIDS, MODMA, and PDCH. First, we re-evaluate E-DAIC under strict subject-disjoint leave-one-subject-out cross-validation. A lightweight hybrid text-plus-LLM-score model reaches macro-F1 = 0.723 - the highest reported under this protocol, to our knowledge - providing a conservative out-of-fold reference point that does not depend on the privileged official holdout. Second, we test whether the E-DAIC official split supports fine-grained leaderboard rankings by sweeping 96 model configurations across modality bundles, pooling strategies, and learners. Development-side cross-validation and official-test rankings align only moderately: the best cross-validation configuration ranks twentieth on the official test, the official-test winner ranks forty-first by cross-validation, top-3 overlap is zero, and the apparent winner is rank-1 in only 32.3% of subject bootstraps. Third, we externally validate strong public CMDC and ANDROIDS baselines that achieve near-ceiling in-domain performance. Zero-shot transfer to external corpora is substantially weaker. Finally, we stress-test E-DAIC text and audio models using paired symptom-dense versus symptom-light interview slices defined by an SRDS-based annotator. Text scores rise sharply on symptom-dense slices, whereas audio scores remain nearly flat; the text-minus-audio gap is positive across all five seeds.

Background: Pregnancy-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (P-TMA) is rare but life-threatening. Early risk prediction before overt clinical presentation remains challenging, as the associated laboratory abnormalities are subtle, multidimensional, and frequently masked by common physiological changes such as gestational thrombocytopenia and pregnancy-related proteinuria, thus overlapping heavily with benign obstetric and renal conditions. This complexity is poorly captured by univariate or rule-based approaches; however, it is addressable by machine learning, which can extract latent, time-dependent risk signatures from longitudinal clinical tests. Methods: This retrospective study included 300 pregnancies comprising 142 P-TMA cases and 158 controls. After exclusion of identifiers and non-informative variables, 146 longitudinal laboratory predictors were retained. Participants were divided into a training cohort (80%) and a held-out test cohort (20%) using stratified sampling. Five algorithms were evaluated: logistic regression, support vector machine with radial basis function kernel, random forest, extra trees, and gradient boosting. The final model was selected by mean cross-validated AUROC, refitted on the full training cohort, and evaluated once in the held-out test cohort. Interpretability analyses examined global feature importance and distributional patterns of leading predictors. Results: Gradient boosting was prespecified by cross-validation in the training cohort. The model achieved an AUROC of 0.872 (95% CI: 0.769-0.952) and an AUPRC of 0.883 (95% CI: 0.780-0.959) in a held-out test cohort, with sensitivity of 0.750 and specificity of 0.812. Conclusions: Longitudinal clinical laboratory tests obtained during routine care contained informative and clinically plausible signals for P-TMA risk. Notably, cystatin C at week 6 showed promise as an early monitoring indicator.

Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is the first-line imaging modality for diagnosing bicuspid aortic valve (BAV), yet diagnostic performance varies with operator expertise and image quality. We developed an explainable AI model that distinguishes BAV from tricuspid aortic valves (TAV) using routinely acquired parasternal long-axis (PLAX) cine loops. A multi-backbone video ensemble was trained and evaluated using a leakage-aware, stratified outer cross-validation protocol on $N{=}90$ patient studies (48 BAV, 42 TAV). Across fixed outer splits and 10 random seeds, the calibrated stacked ensemble achieved an outer-CV F1-score of $0.907$ and recall of $0.877$. Frame-level Grad-CAM localized salient evidence to the aortic root and leaflet plane, while globally aggregated SHAP values quantified each video backbone's contribution to the stacked prediction, enabling transparent, case-level auditability. These findings indicate that PLAX-based video ensembles can support reliable BAV/TAV classification from routine echocardiographic cine loops and may facilitate earlier detection in non-specialist or resource-limited clinical settings.

Diabetes mellitus affects over 537 million adults worldwide and remains a major challenge in preventive healthcare. Existing machine-learning studies primarily formulate diabetes prediction as a binary classification problem, while subtype-oriented analysis and glycaemic-cognitive associations remain comparatively underexplored. We present a reproducible three-stage machine learning framework for diabetes detection, subtype-oriented clustering, and metabolic-cognitive association analysis. In Stage 1, five supervised classifiers together with a stacking ensemble are benchmarked on the NCSU Diabetes Dataset using stratified five-fold cross-validation and evaluation metrics including ROC-AUC, balanced accuracy, recall, and F1-score. SVM-RBF and Logistic Regression achieve the highest ROC-AUC ($0.825 \pm 0.026$), while Random Forest achieves the highest accuracy ($0.762 \pm 0.030$). SHAP explainability identifies Glucose, BMI, and Age as the dominant predictive biomarkers. In Stage 2, silhouette-validated K-Means clustering ($k=2$, silhouette $\approx 0.116$) is applied to confirmed diabetic cases using Glucose, Insulin, and Age, recovering clinically plausible subtype-oriented partitions without requiring ground-truth subtype labels. In Stage 3, statistical analysis of the Ohio Longitudinal Cognitive Dataset ($n=373$) reveals a significant positive association between glycaemic control and cognitive function ($ρ_s = 0.208$, $p = 5.29 \times 10^{-5}$), which survives Holm correction. The findings support the utility of statistically grounded and interpretable ML pipelines for reproducible diabetes analytics and subtype-aware exploratory analysis.

The analysis of physiological time series, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), is persistently hindered by modality and frequency gaps stemming from heterogeneous recording devices. Existing foundation models typically rely on continuous latent spaces, which frequently suffer from severe modality entanglement, lack high-fidelity cross-frequency generative capacity, and impose high computational costs that prohibit edge-device deployment. In this paper, we propose Compact Latent Manifold Translation (CLMT), a highly parameter-efficient (0.09B) unified framework that bridges these gaps through a novel two-stage discrete translation paradigm. First, we introduce a Universal Tokenizer utilizing Hierarchical Residual Vector Quantization (RVQ) to decouple heterogeneous signals into isolated, well-structured discrete latent manifolds, effectively preventing inter-modality interference. Second, a Context-Prompted Latent Translator maps these discrete tokens across modalities by integrating static physiological priors, reframing complex signal synthesis as a pure latent sequence translation task. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our 0.09B model significantly outperforms massive baselines. In cross-modal PPG-to-ECG synthesis, it resolves temporal phase drift and dramatically improves the clinical R-peak detection F1-score from 0.37 (baseline) to 0.83. Furthermore, in extreme cross-frequency super-resolution (25Hz to 100Hz), it successfully recovers high-frequency diagnostic landmarks, achieving an unprecedented Pearson correlation of 0.9956. By learning a universal discrete language for biological signals with a fraction of the computational footprint, our approach sets a new trajectory for edge-deployable, multi-modal medical foundation models.

Final-token safety probes monitor a single hidden state after prompt prefill, but jailbreak prompts can contain probe-visible unsafe evidence distributed across earlier user-token representations that is missed by this readout. We study this prefill-time failure mode using SafeSwitch-style probes trained only on clean harmful and benign prompts across three instruction-tuned LLMs. The probes achieve high recall on clean harmful prompts, but miss many jailbreaks and can produce false positives on safety-adjacent benign prompts. Subspace analyses suggest that missed jailbreaks differ from clean benign prompts along directions that are poorly captured by the probe's representational subspace, and increasing probe bottleneck width does not reliably resolve this mismatch. Token-level prefill analyses reveal that probe-visible unsafe evidence often appears earlier in the sequence but is not exposed at the final-token readout, while naive max-pooling over token positions overfires on safe prompts. A simple PCA-HMM trajectory model, trained only on the same clean split, recovers many final-token misses from user-content prefill trajectories without the catastrophic false-positive behavior of naive token pooling, motivating trajectory-aware hidden-state analyses as diagnostic complements to final-token probes

We introduce KV-Fold, a simple, training-free long-context inference protocol that treats the key-value (KV) cache as the accumulator in a left fold over sequence chunks. At each step, the model processes the next chunk conditioned on the accumulated cache, appends the newly produced keys and values, and passes the enlarged cache forward; the same one-step update is applied repeatedly, analogous to foldl in functional programming. Building on the KV cache concatenation primitive introduced for latent multi-agent communication, we repurpose it as a chunk-to-chunk recurrence for long-context inference. When processing chunk t, the model attends to the KV cache carried from earlier chunks as a prefix, reusing its internal state across segments without modifying or retraining the model. Despite its simplicity, the induced recurrence is stable: per-step drift rises briefly and then saturates into a flat plateau that persists across deep chains. This plateau is insensitive to a 10,000x change in numerical precision, robust across chunk sizes, and consistent across model families. At the task level, KV-Fold preserves exact information over long distances. On a needle-in-a-haystack benchmark, it achieves 100% exact-match retrieval across 152 trials spanning contexts from 16K to 128K tokens and chain depths up to 511 on Llama-3.1-8B, while remaining within the memory limits of a single 40GB GPU. Compared to streaming methods, which trade fidelity for bounded memory, KV-Fold maintains long-range retrieval while operating as a sequence of tractable forward passes. Overall, our results show that frozen pretrained transformers already support a stable form of KV-cache recurrence, providing a practical route to long-context inference without architectural changes or training.

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to be fixed before calibration, typically through data splitting. We introduce multi-variable conformal prediction (MCP), a framework that extends conformal prediction to vector-valued score functions with multiple simultaneous calibration variables. Building on scenario theory as a principled framework for certifying data-driven decisions, MCP unifies prediction set design and calibration into a single optimization problem, eliminating data splitting without sacrificing coverage guarantees. We propose two computationally efficient variants: RemMCP, grounded in constrained optimization with constraint removal, which admits a clean generalization of split conformal prediction; and RelMCP, based on iterative optimization with constraint relaxation, which supports non-convex score functions at the cost of possibly greater conservatism. Through numerical experiments on ellipsoidal and multi-modal prediction sets, we demonstrate that RemMCP and RelMCP consistently meet the target coverage with prediction set sizes smaller than or comparable to those of baselines with data split, while considerably reducing variance across calibration runs - a direct consequence of using all available data for shape optimization and calibration simultaneously.

Machine-learning predictors of biochemical activity often exhibit large random-split-to-leave-one-target-out generalisation gaps that have been documented but not decomposed. We frame this as an evaluation-science question and use targeted protein degradation as the empirical test bed. PROTACs (proteolysis-targeting chimeras) are heterobifunctional small molecules that induce targeted protein degradation, with more than forty candidates currently in clinical trials; published predictors report AUROC of 0.85 to 0.91 under random-split cross-validation, while the leave-one-target-out (LOTO) protocol of Ribes et al. reduces performance to approximately 0.67. Random splits reward within-target interpolation, whereas LOTO measures the novel-target prediction that de-novo design depends on. We decompose this gap and identify inter-laboratory measurement variance as the dominant component, anchored by a within-target cross-laboratory cascade bounding the inter-laboratory contribution at 0.124 AUROC, well above the 0.05 contribution from binarisation-threshold choice. Across eight published architectures and ESM-2 protein language models up to 3B parameters, LOTO AUROC plateaus near 0.67, with a comparable plateau under SMILES-level deduplication; a 21-dimensional 2000-trial hyperparameter optimisation cannot break this ceiling, and the rank-1 single-seed configuration regresses by 0.161 AUROC under multi-seed validation, matching a closed-form selection-bias prediction (Bailey and Lopez de Prado, 2014). Few-shot k=5 stratified per-target retraining combined with ADMET features lifts 65-target LOTO AUROC from 0.668 to 0.7050, and post-hoc Platt scaling recovers raw output to within the 0.05 well-calibrated threshold. We release PROTAC-Bench (10,748 measurements, 173 targets, 65 LOTO folds), the variance-decomposition framework, the per-target calibration protocol, and the evaluation code.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is critical for safe deployment of neural networks in safety-critical applications. While maximum softmax probability (MSP) provides a simple baseline, it lacks theoretical grounding and suffers from miscalibration. We propose VNDUQE (VIB-based Novelty Detection and Uncertainty Quantification for Nondestructive Evaluation), which investigates novelty detection through the Deep Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB), which explicitly constrains information flow through learned representations. We train VIB models on MNIST with held-out digit classes and evaluate OOD detection using information-theoretic metrics: KL divergence and prediction entropy. Our results reveal complementary detection signals: KL divergence achieves perfect detection (100% AUROC on noise) on far-OOD samples (noise, domain shift), while prediction entropy excels at near-OOD detection (94.7% AUROC on novel digit classes). A parallel detection strategy combining both metrics achieves 95.3% average AUROC and 92% true positive rate at 5% false positive rate, which is a 32 percentage point improvement over baseline MSP (85.0% AUROC, 60.1% TPR). Compression via the information bottleneck principle ($β=10^{-3}$) reduces Expected Calibration Error by 38%, demonstrating that information-theoretic constraints produce fundamentally more reliable uncertainty estimates. These findings directly support active learning with expensive computational oracles, where well-calibrated novelty detection enables principled threshold selection for oracle queries.

Background: External validation is essential for assessing the transportability of predictive models. However, its interpretation is often confounded by differences between external and development populations. This study introduces a framework to distinguish model deficiencies from case-mix effects. Method: We propose a framework that quantifies each external patient's similarity to the development data and measures performance in subgroups with varying levels of alignment to the development distribution. We use generative models, specifically autoencoders, to estimate similarity, offering a more flexible alternative to traditional linear approaches and enabling validation without sharing the original development data. The utility of autoencoder-based similarity measure is demonstrated using synthetic data, and the framework's application is illustrated using data from the Netherlands Heart Registration (NHR) to predict mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Results: Our framework revealed substantial variation in model performance across similarity-defined subgroups, differences that remain hidden under conventional external validation yet can meaningfully alter conclusions. In several settings, conventional external validation suggested poor overall performance. However, after accounting for differences in patient characteristics, for some sub-groups, the model performance was consistent with internal validation results. Conversely, apparently acceptable overall performance could mask clinically relevant performance deficits in specific subgroups. Conclusion: The proposed framework enhances the interpretability of external validation by linking model performance to population alignment with the development data. This provides a more principled basis for deciding whether a model is transportable and to which patients it can be safely applied.

Existing medical-agent benchmarks deliver imaging as pre-selected samples, never as an environment the agent must navigate. We introduce ABRA, a radiology-agent benchmark in which the agent operates an OHIF viewer and an Orthanc DICOM server through twenty-one function-calling tools that span slice navigation, windowing, series selection, pixel-coordinate annotation, and structured reporting. ABRA contains 655 programmatically generated tasks across three difficulty tiers and eight types (viewer control, metadata QA, vision probe, annotation, longitudinal comparison, BI-RADS reporting, and oracle variants of annotation and BI-RADS reporting), drawn from LIDC-IDRI, Duke Breast Cancer MRI, and NLST New-Lesion LongCT. Each episode is scored along Planning, Execution, and Outcome (Bluethgen et al., 2025) by task-type-specific automatic scorers. Ten current models, five closed-weight and five open-weight, reach at least 89% Execution on real annotation but only 0-25% Outcome; on the paired oracle variant where a simulated detector supplies the finding, Outcome on the same task reaches 69-100% across the models evaluated, localising the bottleneck to perception rather than tool orchestration. Code, task generators, and scorers are released at https://github.com/Luab/ABRA

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) has become a widely adopted interface for LLM agents to invoke external tools, yet learned monitoring of MCP tool-call traffic remains underexplored. In this article, the proposed detector is presented as an attack detection framework for MCP tool-call traffic that encodes each agent session as a graph (tool calls as nodes, sequential and data-flow links as edges), enriches nodes with sentence-embedding features over arguments and responses, and classifies sessions as benign or attacked. Three GNN architectures (GAT, GCN, GraphSAGE), a no-graph MLP, and classical baselines (XGBoost, random forest, logistic regression, linear SVM) are evaluated, with the full architecture comparison conducted on RAS-Eval (task-stratified splits) and GraphSAGE retained as the GNN baseline on ATBench and a combined-source variant (both label-stratified). Three findings emerge. First, content-level features are essential: metadata-only detection plateaus around an AUROC of 0.64 regardless of architecture, while content embeddings push the AUROC above 0.89. Second, naive random-split evaluation inflates AUROC by up to 26 percentage points relative to task-disjoint splits, a memorization confound that prior agent-detection work has not addressed. Third, the detection signal resides primarily in the SBERT content embeddings: an AUROC of 0.975 was reached by tree ensembles on pooled embeddings, performing, for the most part, better than the neural architectures in the primary RAS-Eval setting including GNNs (0.917) and the MLP (0.896), and self-supervised pre-training does not deliver a label-efficiency advantage on this task.

Clinical time-series data are difficult to model with methods designed for regular sequences because they exhibit irregular sampling, frequent missing values, and heterogeneous observation patterns across variables. Existing approaches commonly use observation masks and time-gap information, but they do not continuously capture the decaying reliability of past observations or consistently organize multi-resolution information within a coherent temporal context during aggregation. To address these limitations, we propose Reliability-aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba (ReTAMamba), which reconstructs clinical time series as time-variable token sequences, estimates observation reliability from missingness and elapsed time, and augments interval summaries with statistical descriptors. Chronological Weaving is used to integrate short- and long-term temporal information within a coherent temporal context, and a budgeted token router is applied to constrain sequence length while preserving informative summaries. Experiments on MIMIC-IV, eICU, and PhysioNet 2012 show that ReTAMamba consistently improves AUPRC over strong baselines, with average relative gains of 7.51%, 7.80%, and 10.15%, respectively. Cohort-level and patient-level analyses on eICU further showed that the learned mean decay for more dynamic signals, such as heart rate and blood pressure, was 24.3% larger than that for relatively static signals, such as laboratory test variables. These findings suggest that effective prediction in irregular clinical time series requires modeling not only what was measured, but also when and how it was observed, including information freshness and observation timeliness.

Aggregating conformal predictors is a standard way of balancing their predictive and computational efficiency while retaining their validity, at least approximately. An important advantage of conformal e-predictors is that they are easier to aggregate without sacrificing their validity. This paper studies experimentally cross-conformal e-prediction, which is an existing method of aggregating conformal e-predictors, and its modifications that are conceptually simpler and more flexible.

With the rise in scale for deep learning models to billions of parameters, the computational cost of fine-tuning remains a significant barrier to deployment. While Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become the standard for parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the need to set a predefined, static rank $r$ requires exhaustive grid searches to balance efficiency and performance. Existing rank-adaptive solutions such as DyLoRA mitigate this by sampling ranks during the training from a predefined distribution. However, they often yield sub-optimal results at higher ranks due to lack of consistent gradient signals across the full hierarchy of ranks, thus making these methods data-inefficient. In this paper, we propose MatryoshkaLoRA, a general, Matryoshka-inspired training framework for LoRA that learns accurate hierarchical low-rank representations by inserting a fixed, carefully crafted diagonal matrix $P$ between the existing LoRA adapters to scale their sub-ranks accordingly. By introducing this simple modification, our general framework recovers LoRA and DyLoRA only by changing $P$ and ensures all sub-ranks embed the available gradient information efficiently. Our MatryoshkaLoRA supports dynamic rank selection with minimal degradation in accuracy. We further propose Area Under the Rank Accuracy Curve (AURAC), a metric that consistently evaluates the performance of hierarchical low-rank adapters. Our results demonstrate that MatryoshkaLoRA learns more accurate hierarchical low-rank representations than prior rank-adaptive approaches and achieves superior accuracy-performance trade-offs across ranks on the evaluated datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/MatryoshkaLoRA.

Conventional visual object trackers localize targets using handcrafted spatial priors, often in the form of heatmaps. Such priors provide only surrogate supervision and are poorly aligned with tracking optimization and evaluation metrics, such as intersection over union (IoU) and area under the success curve (AUC). Here, we introduce RELO, a REinforcement-learning-to-LOcalize method for visual object tracking that formulates target localization as a Markov decision process. Specifically, RELO replaces handcrafted spatial priors with a localization policy learned over spatial positions via reinforcement learning, with rewards combining frame-level IoU and sequence-level AUC. We additionally introduce layer-aligned temporal token propagation to improve semantic consistency across frames, with negligible computational overhead. Across multiple benchmarks, RELO achieves superior results, attaining 57.5% AUC on LaSOText without template updates. This confirms that reward-driven localization provides an effective alternative to prior-driven localization for visual object tracking.