Counterfactuals

Chart question-answering (QA) benchmarks aim to pose questions that require visual reasoning to correctly answer, but models can often reach solutions through shortcuts or prior familiarity with a chart based on their own background knowledge. To strictly evaluate visual reasoning, we propose counterfactual charts where the chart-question task remains fixed, but underlying chart and the corresponding answer are varied. We introduce Chartographer, a framework to reverse engineer charts into executable code, validate reconstruction fidelity, generate seed-controlled counterfactual variants, and derive new answers from executable QA logic. We apply this framework to existing chart QA datasets and evaluate proprietary and open-source vision-language models (VLMs), measuring variation sensitivity and generalizability. Counterfactual charts reveal failures hidden by single-chart performance: VLMs often fail to generalize after answering the original chart correctly. We find failures are most prevalent when updated charts require novel visual reasoning pathways.

An effective method of teaching across disciplines is to provide examples of high-quality work. However, an example may be significantly different from a student's current work, making it challenging for them to emulate. An ideal learning demonstration is a counterfactual version of the student work, an improved version that is still similar to their own. Existing automated approaches for counterfactual text generation using Large Language Models (LLMs) result in domain-specific systems that are difficult to translate into practical applications. We present the Gumbel Machine, a flexible, modular approach to generating counterfactuals that leverages LLM instruction-following capabilities while encouraging similarity to a reference factual text. Central to our approach is a novel, controlled decoding algorithm, $β$-Hindsight control, which uses latent randomness as a tunable similarity control mechanism during counterfactual generation. Experiments on datasets of student writing, scored on various criteria, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach at generating counterfactuals both rubric-consistent and similar to a reference.

Counterfactual tuning (CFT) has emerged as a promising paradigm for Large Language Model (LLM) unlearning by training models to generate alternative fictitious knowledge in place of undesired content. However, in this work, we find that this paradigm still underperforms other paradigms in some aspects, and identify two previously overlooked pitfalls underlying this gap: (1) knowledge conflict, where mutual inconsistencies within counterfactual corpora induce conflicting gradients that disrupt parameter optimization, and (2) hallucination spillover, where fitting false targets instills a persistent fabrication bias, inflating hallucination rates on unrelated domains. To systematically diagnose these issues, we introduce RWKU+, an extended benchmark equipped with novel trade-off metrics and gradient-level diagnostic tools. Our work further discusses the limitations and overhead of the paradigm, aiming to provide insights and actionable guidance for more rigorous LLM unlearning research.

We introduce a multi-turn interactive framework for reasoning evaluation that treats reasoning as active evidence acquisition and belief updating. Wherein, LLMs receive only the task rules, must issue targeted queries to a hidden environment, integrate partial observations over time, and decide when to submit a final answer. Beyond standard success rate and interaction efficiency, we evaluate contextual robustness under controlled contextual perturbations, and metacognitive adaptation through counterfactual revision and necessity judgment. We instantiate the framework as a benchmark of 474 executable games, each evaluated under five fixed configuration search spaces corresponding to five difficulty levels, and evaluate a broad set of frontier LLMs. Results show that the benchmark is highly discriminative, exposing large differences not only in success rate but also in interaction efficiency. Moreover, we empirically show that contextual perturbations cause moderate but consistent declines, whereas counterfactual revision and necessity judgment lead to much larger drops.

Epidemic forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: human behavior dynamically responds to disease spread, creating feedback loops that induce distribution shifts at policy intervention points. This renders data-driven models unreliable under distribution shift. We propose \textbf{SL-BiLEM} (Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Model), leveraging physical constraints as regularization for robust extrapolation. The framework decomposes effective transmission as $β_{\text{eff}}(t,g) = β_0(g) \times m_{\text{policy}}(t) \times m_{\text{media}}(t) \times m_{\text{comp}}(t,g)$, where monotonicity, smoothness, and bounded-jump constraints on the learned compliance function maintain predictive validity under novel policy regimes. Beyond forecasting, SL-BiLEM enables counterfactual analysis for intervention decision support. We validate forecasting on three real-world datasets (cruise ship, school influenza, and school-district COVID-19 surveillance) and evaluate counterfactual recovery on synthetic benchmarks with known ground truth. SL-BiLEM demonstrates: (1) 76% improvement over neural-mechanistic baselines, with only 53% OOD degradation versus 1142% for neural baselines under policy-induced shift; (2) 100% bootstrap CI coverage across 27 synthetic counterfactual experiments; and (3) Treatment Effect Accuracy exceeding 0.85. These results establish SL-BiLEM as an interpretable tool for public health decision-makers seeking accurate prediction and principled intervention planning.

We propose a foundational runtime actuarial layer for autonomous AI agents in which every side-effect-bearing action carries a time-consistent, counterfactual risk toll computed against a contractually fixed safe default, inside an explicit underwriting boundary. The framework treats per-action insurance as the primary unit of analysis and replaces post-hoc annual liability cover with a pre-action transaction layer. The paper establishes four structural results: (i) a well-defined counterfactual toll under a chosen safe-default mapping and continuation policy, with explicit non-uniqueness; (ii) a no-splitting property within an underwriting boundary that telescopes path-decomposed actions into a boundary potential, with a corollary tying gaming-resistance to boundary design; (iii) an irreversible-authority premium, split into a strictly positive action-level component and an if-and-only-if characterisation of the set-level robust capital increase; and (iv) a conservative runtime gating theorem that translates high-probability toll envelopes into an executed-action budget guarantee. The result is the mathematical base layer for a broader program: an empirical companion instantiates the runtime through an Actuarial Action Interface and authority-frontier experiments; a mechanism-design companion studies strategic operator incentives and cross-boundary aggregation; and a dynamic-underwriting companion studies experience rating and audit-replay calibration. The present paper states the primitive contract, the toll identity, the within-boundary no-arbitrage result, and the budget guarantee on which those later layers depend.

Medical video diagnosis involves inferring clinical decisions from dynamic tissue responses throughout examination processes. Existing methods rely on an end-to-end learning paradigm that i) focuses on appearance rather than pathology, ii) lacks clinical priors, and iii) reasons solely from observations without counterfactual comparison. This work introduces MedVCR, a counterfactual reasoning framework that mimics clinical diagnostic thinking. MedVCR comprises three components: a Counterfactual Generator that synthesizes tissue evolution under specified pathological states via a diffusion-based manner; a Counterfactual Representation Learning module that encodes diagnostic knowledge through clinical rules (i.e., temporal consistency, pathological separability, and counterfactual alignment); and a Dual Diagnostic Prediction strategy that integrates video-level assessment with frame-level counterfactual analysis. MedVCR is evaluated under both fully supervised (e.g., colposcopy) and weakly supervised (e.g., colonoscopy) video diagnosis settings, yielding 2.6%-10.2% performance gains compared with leading baselines. Comprehensive ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of each component. The code will be released.

TypedCSIP is a typed counterfactual pretraining method for the conflict-classification task of the LCR-CN benchmark (Zhao et al., 2026): given a (superior, subordinate) provision pair, predict whether the pair conflicts and which of four legal-doctrine types (Responsibility, Condition, Sanction, Definition) describes the inconsistency. We exploit LCR-CN's expert-written minimal revisions as training-time counterfactual supervision; at test time the classifier reads only the original pair. Stage 1 pretrains a shared encoder with a typed Counterfactual Selective Intervention Pretraining objective on (superior, subordinate, expert-revised) triplets, treating the expert revision as a counterfactual that the typed factor head must classify as carrying no conflict evidence. Stage 2 transfers the encoder to a five-way classification head. The confirmatory test was registered on the Open Science Framework before observing v6 measurements: 18 seeds, locked rule requiring mean per-seed difference at least 0.8 pp with both seed-bootstrap and Student-t 95% lower bounds above zero. On the 696-record test split, the v2 variant improves macro-F1 over the strongest single-model baseline by +0.916 pp on chinese-roberta-wwm-ext and +1.288 pp on the SAILER cross-backbone replication; both cells pass the rule. A cold-start stratified result on the 244 Unseen-gB records keeps the gain positive on both backbones. A cross-task diagnostic shows the Stage-2 encoder is classification-specialized and does not transfer to LCR-CN's superior-law retrieval task, so we scope the contribution to conflict classification. We release code, 72 pre-registered prediction files, matched-seed and MLM-control auxiliaries, and the OSF pre-registration record.

World models for partially observed environments must imagine multiple compatible hidden futures and steer between them under counterfactual actions. Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) do this in latent space, but a vector-valued latent has no internal structure for carrying the belief over hidden continuations through blind rollout. We introduce the Unitary World Model JEPA (UWM-JEPA), a JEPA world model with a density-matrix latent on a joint system-environment space and a learned unitary predictor. The construction preserves the joint-state spectrum exactly during rollout, so the predictor itself cannot dissipate the represented uncertainty. On a hidden-velocity indicator task requiring five-step forward simulation under a given action sequence with the target observation masked, UWM-JEPA reaches 0.77 accuracy and degrades monotonically as actions are perturbed; a parameter-matched LSTM-JEPA trained under the same counterfactual-target objective and action head collapses to majority-class accuracy (0.53) under every action condition. Under blind rollout, UWM-JEPA loses fewer than ten points of probe R^2 at short horizons while vector-latent baselines lose forty-one and sixty-eight; both nevertheless tie on a held-out context probe, locating the separation in the predictor rather than the encoder. Action sensitivity itself requires training against counterfactual rather than teacher-forced targets, a finding that applies beyond the unitary parameterisation. For JEPA world models to imagine under partial observability, latent geometry and predictor dynamics matter, not frozen context-encoding capacity alone.

We give an attribution method for neural combinatorial-optimisation (CO) policies that (i) decomposes a decision by constraint families via LP-relaxation duals, (ii) certifies counterfactuals through a combinatorial feasibility model (implemented as a CSP feasibility-decision model), and (iii) bounds the size of a PAC-sufficient explanation with a Bonferroni-corrected Hoeffding sufficient-subset test along a greedy ordering. Across three CO problems and three seeds, our LP-anchored $Λ$-attribution matches the CF-derived signal at 96.5% on CVRPTW (n_cert=344) and 77.2% on the Orienteering Problem (n_cert=281) vs 75.0% and 35.2% for proxy gradient (paired diffs +0.215 and +0.420; McNemar exact $p \le 10^{-14}$). In the rank-aligned regime of the Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling Problem, both backends agree on every CSP-certified flip (n_cert=59), confirming the no-gain prediction. Bonferroni-PAC subsets average 5.0 nodes per step ($M=70$, $\varepsilon=δ=0.2$, $k_{\max}=25$). Reference implementation: https://github.com/sohaibafifi/neuro-co-cax

Reinforcement learning algorithms are generally designed to maximize the expected return across a population. However, a policy that is optimal on average may be suboptimal for certain individuals, leading to potential safety concerns. To address this, we first formalize the notion of individual harm from a counterfactual perspective and define harm as the event in which a chosen action results in a strictly worse outcome than a baseline alternative. We then propose a general two-stage procedure for learning policies that maximize the expected return while accounting for individual harm. We further establish the finite-sample properties of the learned policy, derive an upper bound on its sub-optimality gap, and show that the harm rate remains well-controlled. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Counterfactual story rewriting is a natural language processing task that requires updating an existing story to reflect a chosen alternative event, yet preserving all the unaffected storyline elements and overall coherence. While large language models have recently made remarkable progress on this task, it still remains challenging since the required modifications are typically very small in size and highly localized. As a consequence, models trained in a conventional manner with the maximum-likelihood training objective tend to overlook these nuances. At the same time, more sophisticated training approaches based on reinforcement learning are notoriously slow and difficult to set up. For these reasons, our paper proposes a novel, differentiable training objective (DTO) that directly optimizes for the requisite counterfactual improvements. In our approach, a transformer model is fine-tuned via end-to-end backpropagation against a fully differentiable loss function that jointly rewards (i) fidelity to the reference rewrite and (ii) semantic consistency with the source narrative. The empirical evaluation on the TimeTravel and ART datasets shows that the proposed DTO approach has been able to surpass a maximum-likelihood baseline and a preference-based approach, and perform competitively against two contemporary large language models in all evaluation metrics. These findings substantiate the effectiveness of task-specific differentiable objectives for nuanced, controlled text-generation tasks.

Mean cross-entropy is the standard validation metric for language models, but it can fail to track model quality during training. We examine this in two common scenarios. First, in Qwen2.5-1.5B SFT on synthetic fact-learning, we find that mean CE rises substantially after the initial learning phase while held-out fact-recall accuracy remains near its peak. Second, we find that in top-K distillation on TinyStories, decreasing K improves median CE while worsening mean CE; the Top-5 student attains the highest LLM-judge score and crosses below its teacher on median CE, despite having the worst mean CE. In both cases, median CE correlates much more closely with task performance than does mean CE. Analyzing how bulk and tail percentile CE move during training reveals that training reshapes the empirical per-token CE distribution. In top-K distillation, smaller K yields a distribution with more mass at both extremes, decreasing the median and increasing the mean. In Qwen SFT, the bulk saturates quickly while the tail extends in the latter half of training. In both, the task-evaluation metric appears more sensitive to the bulk than to the tail. Practically, we recommend reporting a small set of percentile CE summaries alongside the mean, and using concordance among them as a tool to keep track of distribution reshaping, as well as a low-cost diagnostic for when mean and median CE disagree on model selection.

Reasoning language models do not distinguish tokens used for computation from tokens that constitute persistent state: once generated, all hidden thoughts remain in context and influence future predictions. As a result, downstream reasoning may depend on failed attempts, dead ends, and private scratch work that should not be safely relied on later. We recast this phenomenon as a new training objective, state commitment learning: training models to explicitly distinguish information that should be committed as persistent state from temporary computation that can be discarded. We define a counterfactual criterion, persistent-state sufficiency, which makes it trainable and measurable whether an answer remains usable after hidden thoughts are erased. We then propose Counterfactual Erasure RL (CERL), which evaluates, under the same prefix, both a path that keeps hidden thoughts and a path that erases them, and gives reward only when the erasure path remains correct. We also introduce the Erasure Dependence Protocol and show across mathematics, long-chain logic, scientific QA, and multi-turn tool-use evaluation that CERL substantially reduces answer dependence on hidden thoughts without sacrificing accuracy, consistently outperforming correctness-only RL and long-answer SFT baselines.

Large language model agents increasingly rely on persistent memory to store past interactions, retrieve relevant demonstrations, and improve long-horizon task execution. However, this memory mechanism also creates a practical security vulnerability: an adversarial user may inject malicious records into the agent's memory through ordinary interaction, and these records can later be retrieved to steer the agent's reasoning and actions. Existing defenses primarily focus on online intervention, such as prompt filtering or output blocking, but they do not address the post-hoc question of which stored memories are responsible after harmful behavior has already been observed. We propose \textbf{MemAudit}, a post-hoc causal memory auditing framework for memory-augmented LLM agents. The framework combines two complementary signals: (1) a counterfactual memory influence score that measures each memory's causal contribution to harmful outputs, and (2) a memory consistency graph that identifies structurally anomalous memories within the broader memory store. We evaluate MemAudit against MINJA, a query-only memory injection attack in which malicious records are generated and stored through normal agent interactions rather than direct memory-bank modification. Across both QA and reasoning-agent settings, MemAudit substantially reduces attack success rates under realistic post-hoc auditing scenarios. The results show that QA attack success is reduced from $70\%$ to $0\%$, while RAP attack success drops from $83.3\%$ to $0\%$.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Cloud-hosted LLM driver agents provide useful semantic judgments, but their inference latency exceeds stepwise vehicle-control windows. Learned world models predict futures, but they usually keep future generation and action selection inside large coupled loops. We present SteinsGateDrive, a latency-decoupled planner-runtime architecture in which the worldline metaphor from the eponymous story names one plausible consequence of an intervention: the LLM selects counterfactual driving futures before the final control instant, and a runtime reuses the selected forecast only while safety contracts remain valid. The generator builds three world-line roles: alpha nominal ego-conditioned futures, beta interaction counterfactuals around nearby vehicles, and gamma hazard-stress futures such as braking, cut-ins, or blocked corridors. The selected branch becomes a typed StrategicForecast with horizon, validity/abort conditions, fallback, and authority. On a within-subject, matched-seed normal-highway protocol with 10 seeds and 20 steps, GPT-5.4 mini reduces effective lag from +3.07 s at 1-second horizon to -0.01 s at 4-second horizon while preserving the measured no-collision safety boundary. The architecture's safety contribution comes from the atom-predicate runtime check, not from the drift score, which functions as a refresh-frequency knob.

Video large language models (Video LLMs) achieve strong benchmark accuracy, yet often answer video questions through shortcuts such as single-frame cues and language priors rather than by tracking spatiotemporal dynamics. This issue is exacerbated in RL post-training, where correctness-only rewards can further reinforce shortcut policies that obtain high reward without tracking video dynamics. We address this by asking a controlled counterfactual question: if the visual world changed while the question remained fixed, should the answer change or stay the same? Based on this view, we propose \textbf{Counterfactual Relational Policy Optimization (CRPO)}, a dual-branch RL framework for improving \emph{spatiotemporal sensitivity}. CRPO constructs counterfactual videos through horizontal flips and temporal reversals, trains on both original and counterfactual branches, and introduces a \textbf{Counterfactual Relation Reward (CRR)} between their answers. CRR encourages answers to change for dynamic questions and remain unchanged for static questions. This cross-branch constraint makes it difficult for shortcut policies to be consistently rewarded across both branches. To evaluate this property, we introduce \textbf{DyBench}, a paired counterfactual video benchmark with 3,014 videos covering reversible dynamics, moving direction, and event sequence, together with a strict pair-accuracy metric that prevents fixed-answer shortcuts from inflating scores. Experiments show that CRPO outperforms prior RL methods on spatiotemporal-sensitive evaluations while maintaining competitive general video performance. On Qwen3-VL-8B, CRPO improves DyBench P-Acc by +7.7 and TimeBlind I-Acc by +8.2 over the base model, indicating improved spatiotemporal sensitivity rather than stronger reliance on static shortcuts. The project website can be found at https://ddz16.github.io/crpo.github.io/ .

We address the problem of making a pre-trained reinforcement learning (RL) policy safety-aware by incorporating cost constraints without retraining it from scratch. While costs could be numerically encoded, we assume a more general setting is when costs are provided as preferences. Given a reward-optimized policy and a small dataset of preferred (low-cost) and dispreferred (high-cost) trajectories, our goal is to fine-tune the policy to generate low-cost behaviors while retaining high rewards. Unlike standard RLHF in language models, where preferences are defined over responses to the same prompt, our setting involves trajectory-level preferences in continuous control environments. We introduce PREFINE: Preference-based Implicit Reward and Cost Fine-Tuning for Safety Alignment which is a preference-based fine-tuning method that adapts Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), which is now widely used for LLM fine-tuning, to the sequential decision making setting. PREFINE constructs policy-sampled counterfactual trajectories to establish meaningful preference contrasts and jointly optimizes for reward retention and safety alignment. Empirically, PREFINE reduces constraint violations and catastrophic failures by over 60% while maintaining original reward behavior. PREFINE produces policies that achieve low-cost, high-reward performance with significantly improved data and computational efficiency compared to full offline RL or imitation learning, bridging preference alignment and safe policy adaptation in continuous domains.

Federated learning systems must support data deletion requests to comply with privacy regulations, yet retraining from scratch after each deletion is computationally prohibitive. We present HF-KCU, a method that removes a client's contribution by approximating the influence function through conjugate gradient iterations in Krylov subspaces, reducing complexity from O(d^3) to O(kd) where k<<d.A causal weighting mechanism ensures that only clients holding the deleted data receive parameter updates, preventing spurious changes to unaffected clients. Our method is designed to handle bounded adversarial perturbations to the Hessian and gradient, providing graceful degradation under realistic threat models. We validate HF-KCU across convolutional (ResNet-18, SimpleCNN) and transformer (ViT-Lite) architectures on CIFAR-10, MNIST, and Fashion-MNIST. On CIFAR-10 under Dirichlet (alpha=0.5) partitioning, HF-KCU achieves 47.75 times speedup over retraining while maintaining test accuracy within 0.60% of the rational baseline(71.16 vs 71.76 %). Membership inference attacks on the forget set yield success rates of 0.499 matching the retrained model and confirming effective privacy restoration. We provide convergence guarantees showing that the Krylov approximation error decreases as O((k ^1/2-1)/(k^1/2+1)) where k is the Hessian condition number. The causal weighting mechanism ensures surgical updates, where only clients holding deleted data are modified, preserving model quality for unaffected participants and avoiding the instability of gradient-based approaches in asynchronous federated settings. This design provides interpretability as each update is directly traceable to the influence of the deleted data. The method's efficiency and precision make it suitable for production federated systems where deletion requests arrive asynchronously and computational budgets are constrained.

End-to-end autonomous driving systems excel in common scenarios but struggle with safety-critical long-tail cases. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are promising due to their strong reasoning capabilities. However, most VLA-based approaches rely on positive expert demonstrations, rarely exploiting negative samples, leading to insufficient understanding of risky behaviors and safety boundaries. To address this limitation, we propose SafeAlign-VLA, a unified negative-enhanced safe alignment framework that incorporates negative data into supervised learning and reinforcement learning. First, we develop a counterfactual safety pairing paradigm to generate structured safety labels and counterfactual positive trajectories from risky scenarios via counterfactual reasoning. Then, a two-stage training strategy is adopted: negative-enhanced supervised fine-tuning for failure feedback and trajectory correction, followed by anchor-based group relative policy optimization that uses positive and negative trajectories as contrastive anchors to steer sampling and penalize high-risk behaviors via group-relative advantages. Experiments on NAVSIM and DeepAccident validate the proposed framework. SafeAlign-VLA achieves 89.1 PDMS on the NAVSIM v1 testset, improving over the baseline without negative data by 1.3%. On DeepAccident, it reduces the collision rate to 3.36%, while achieving 84.2% language accuracy and 85.8% risk prediction accuracy. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed negative-enhanced safe alignment framework for safe and robust autonomous driving.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies increasingly rely on asynchronous inference to hide large-model latency behind ongoing robot motion. While this avoids the stop-and-go behavior of synchronous action-chunk execution, it creates a prediction-execution mismatch: the next chunk is computed from a stale observation at inference start but executed only after the robot and scene have evolved. As a result, actions that fit the prediction-time state can become misaligned with the execution-time state. Existing runtime repair, behavior-cloning, and preference-alignment approaches do not directly teach the policy to resolve this stale-input mismatch. We propose DEFLECT, an offline post-training framework for delay-robust asynchronous VLAs. DEFLECT converts latency-induced mismatch into counterfactual preference supervision: a frozen reference VLA generates a preferred chunk from the future execution-time observation and a rejected chunk from the stale prediction-time observation. The trainable policy scores both chunks under the same deployment-time input, learning to favor execution-time-aligned actions while a supervised fine-tuning anchor preserves the expert action manifold. DEFLECT requires no human preference labels, reward models, online robot rollouts, architectural changes, or additional inference-time computation. Across Kinetix, LIBERO, and three real-robot tasks, DEFLECT improves delay robustness over strong asynchronous VLA baselines, raising high-latency success by up to 6.4 percentage points and achieving a 4.6 percentage-point gain at the longest delay on a real-scale VLA.

Reasoning systems increasingly separate intermediate computation into private and public channels, creating evaluation cases that look similar in transcripts: independent co-derivation, direct access to private content, and indirect influence through public communication. This paper presents a counterfactual likelihood test for measuring influence between private reasoning channels. The method replaces an upstream private block with a length-matched donor block, holds the public token sequence and downstream target fixed, and measures the downstream target's negative-log-likelihood shift. On a 7B role-channel reasoning model used for validation, textual probes are unreliable: raw n-gram overlap overstates leakage, corrected overlap remains noisy, and canary reproduction reports no discrimination. Counterfactual likelihood separates unmasked and masked conditions, while length matching controls a RoPE positional confound. In the hardened masked validation, reverse B-to-A influence is near zero, while A-to-B influence persists through public-speech hidden states. A multi-checkpoint validation across three checkpoints, five seeds, and 13,734 valid directional contrasts replicates this asymmetry. A graph-separation control that blocks private-to-public carrier edges produces bit-identical natural and counterfactual scores across all 13,734 control evaluations, identifying the tested public-channel pathway as the complete carrier of the measured counterfactual signal under the implemented role-visibility mask. The results show that private-channel evaluation should report direct and indirect influence separately, and that counterfactual likelihood probes provide a practical default for measuring these boundaries.

Prior work on fine-grained image recognition (FGIR) has established the importance of the backbone selection, but has neglected the accuracy-vs-cost trade-offs under different training and evaluation settings. In this work we conduct a large-scale study with over 2000 experiments across 6 training and evaluation settings, 9 pretrained backbones, and 17 datasets. Preliminary observations on the effectiveness of data augmentation for fine-grained training motivate us to extend Counterfactual Attention Learning (CAL), a state-of-the-art method based on data-aware cropping and masking augmentations, with cross-image discriminative region mixing augmentation. We also propose an efficient evaluation-only variant that maintains competitive accuracy while reducing inference costs by forfeiting the forward pass on discriminative crops that is normally used by CAL and similar FGIR methods. Our results show that data-aware augmentations during training only can enable a model to achieve excellent accuracy even without crops, significantly reducing inference costs. To support future research we share our code and checkpoints at: \url{https://github.com/arkel23/FGIR-Backbones}

We investigate Counterfactual Video Foley Generation, which aims to adopt a sound-source identity that contradicts the visual evidence while remaining temporally synchronized to a silent video. Existing Video&Text-to-Audio (VT2A) models struggle with this, often remaining anchored to the visually implied sound source when video and text contents disagree. We present ConterFlow, an inference-time dual-phase sampling scheme for pretrained flow-matching VT2A models. Phase 1 builds a video-derived temporal structure while suppressing the visually implied source; Phase 2 drops video conditioning to focus entirely on shaping audio timbre toward the target prompt. ConterFlow substantially improves counterfactual Video Foley generation compared to naive negative prompting and state-of-the-art baselines. To evaluate replacement quality, we propose a metric leveraging a text-audio co-embedding space to measure both target-prompt evidence and residual visually implied source leakage. Video demonstrations and code are available at https://gyubin-lee.github.io/counterflow-demo/

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at multimodal reasoning, yet it remains unclear whether their answers are grounded in visual evidence or driven by learned language and world priors. Counting provides a precise testbed: when visual evidence conflicts with canonical object knowledge, a model must rely on the image rather than a prototypical count. We introduce CounterCount, a diagnostic framework for counterfactual counting in VLMs, consisting of paired factual and counterfactual images with edited count-relevant attributes, verified answers, and localized evidence annotations. Evaluating recent VLMs, we find strong performance on factual images but consistent degradation under counterfactual attribute changes, indicating reliance on object-level priors even when contradictory visual evidence is present. Using localized annotations, we show that these failures are not solely due to missing or ambiguous visual evidence, but to models underweighting attention to count-relevant visual tokens. We introduce a unified inference-time attention modulation strategy that reweights selected visual tokens, improving counterfactual counting accuracy by up to 8% across multiple VLMs. Overall, CounterCount exposes prior-driven counting failures and provides diagnostic insights for designing future VLMs.

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide actionable recourse, but most methods assume a static framework with fixed data and a trained classifier. This assumption breaks in evolving data environments, such as data streams, where online models are repeatedly updated under concept drift. We identify CFE maintenance in this setting as a previously overlooked problem: explanations that are valid when generated may silently become invalid as the model evolves, including robust CFEs, which are not designed for continuous drift. We propose a lightweight, model-agnostic update scheme that repairs existing CFEs using local sampling to estimate validity and plausibility directions while preserving proximity to the original instance. Experiments on synthetic drifting streams show that initially created CFEs rapidly lose validity, whereas maintained CFEs preserve validity and local plausibility at a lower cost than repeated regeneration.

We formulate machine unlearning for online L-BFGS as a counterfactual state-alignment problem. Given an actual event stream and a deletion-edited counterfactual stream, the target of unlearning is the optimizer state that would have arisen had the deleted samples never been processed. We introduce state-aware metrics that separately measure parameter error, memory-operator error, combined state error, and update-direction error. The memory metric compares the inverse-Hessian actions induced by the o-L-BFGS memory, rather than treating curvature pairs as of finite influence. Under convexity assumptions, we derive a recursive bound on counterfactual state deviation. We then evaluate a state-aware benchmark of deletion interventions, including memory-only and parameter-only corrections, against an counterfactual oracle model. These results show that unlearning for online L-BFGS is not merely a parameter-correction problem: it requires alignment with a realizable counterfactual optimizer state.

Node representation learning, such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), has emerged as a pivotal method in machine learning. The demand for reliable explanation generation surges, yet unsupervised models remain underexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce a method for generating counterfactual (CF) explanations in unsupervised node representation learning. We identify the most important subgraphs that cause a significant change in the k-nearest neighbors of a node of interest in the learned embedding space upon perturbation. The k-nearest neighbor-based CF explanation method provides simple, yet pivotal, information for understanding unsupervised downstream tasks, such as top-k link prediction and clustering. Consequently, we introduce UNR-Explainer for generating expressive CF explanations for Unsupervised Node Representation learning methods based on a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). The proposed method demonstrates superior performance on diverse datasets for unsupervised GraphSAGE and DGI.

Quantization can preserve predictive accuracy under low-bit deployment while silently breaking algorithmic recourse: an actionable change that flips a decision before quantization may fail after quantization, or become substantially more costly. We formalize counterfactual sensitivity under quantization through validity, cost, and direction stability, and introduce two metrics: Validity Drop (VD) and Counterfactual Recourse Gap (CRG) that reveal recourse failures invisible to accuracy. We propose Counterfactual-Faithful Quantization (CFQ), which trains quantizer parameters and mixed-precision bit allocation to preserve counterfactual behavior by enforcing the target outcome at teacher recourse points under a global bit budget. A margin-based analysis gives a sufficient condition for recourse transfer under bounded quantization perturbations. Experiments on Adult, German Credit, and COMPAS show that accuracy-matched baselines can significantly degrade recourse stability, while CFQ maintains accuracy and substantially improves VD and CRG across bit budgets.

Clinical decision-making is a feedback system where risk estimates influence treatment, which in turn changes disease trajectories, and both shape clinicians' measurement practices. Static prediction often fails clinically: models trained on observational care logs conflate disease biology with clinician behavior, particularly under treatment confounder feedback and irregular or informative observation. This Review focuses on intervention-aware disease trajectory modeling in clinical AI--methods estimating patient-specific longitudinal disease evolution and assessing trajectory changes under alternative treatments. We organize the field around six linked components: three decision tasks (factual forecasting, counterfactual estimation, policy evaluation) and three data-generating mechanisms (disease evolution, treatment assignment, observation process) that determine identifiability. We present the first unified framework bridging forecasting, counterfactual trajectories, and policy evaluation across discrete/continuous time, explicitly addressing treatment assignment, time-varying confounding, and observation bias. We synthesize key method families (multistate/joint models, temporal point-process, deep sequence architectures, longitudinal causal inference), map them to relevant components, and align evaluation with claim strength via overlap diagnostics, uncertainty quantification, off-policy robustness, and target-trial validation. This synthesis advances benchmark prediction to decision-grade clinical evidence, enabling treatment-sensitive individualized futures, pre-deployment policy stress-testing, and safer closed-loop learning health systems that adapt/abstain when evidence is insufficient.

We study event-graph substrates: a class of world models that represent agent state as an append-only log of typed RDF triples and answer counterfactual queries by forking the log under a structured intervention vocabulary. Substrates are inspectable at the triple level, support exact counterfactuals, and transfer across domains without learned components. We formalize the class, prove a duality between explanatory and counterfactual queries that reduces both to the same causal-ancestor traversal, and evaluate a 1,400-line CLEVRER-DSL interpreter atop a domain-agnostic substrate runtime at full CLEVRER validation scale (n=75,618). The substrate exceeds the NS-DR symbolic oracle on all four per-question categories (by 9.89, 20.26, 17.65, and 0.80 percentage points), and exceeds the parametric ALOE baseline on descriptive and explanatory while lagging on predictive and counterfactual. We also introduce twin-EventLog, a 500-specification Park-canonical Smallville counterfactual benchmark on which the substrate exceeds Llama-3.1-8B with full context by 18.80 points joint accuracy.

Referring Multi-Object Tracking (RMOT) faces a fundamental structural contradiction between the high-discriminability demand and the sparse semantic supervision. This mismatch is particularly acute in highly homogeneous scenarios that require fine-grained discrimination over complex compositional semantics. However, under sparse supervision, models overfit to salient yet insufficient cues, thereby encouraging shortcut learning and semantic collapse. To resolve this, we propose COAL (Counterfactual and Observation-enhanced Alignment Learning), a framework that advances RMOT beyond isolated structural optimization through knowledge regularization. First, we introduce Explicit Semantic Injection (ESI) via a VLM to densify the observation space and enhance instance discriminability. Second, leveraging LLM reasoning, we propose Counterfactual Learning (CFL) to augment supervision, enforcing strict attribute verification for robust compositional recognition. These strategies are unified within a Hierarchical Multi-Stream Integration (HMSI) architecture, which distills external knowledge into domain-specific discriminative representations. Experiments on Refer-KITTI and Refer-KITTI-V2 benchmarks validate COAL's efficacy. Notably, it surpasses the state-of-the-art by 7.28% HOTA on the highly challenging Refer-KITTI-V2. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of knowledge regularization for resolving the sparsity-discriminability paradox in RMOT.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) often hallucinate when language priors dominate weak or ambiguous visual evidence. Existing contrastive decoding methods mitigate this problem by comparing predictions from the original image with those from externally perturbed visual inputs, but such references can introduce off-manifold artifacts and require costly extra forward passes. We propose SIRA, a training-free internal contrastive decoding framework that constructs a counterfactual reference inside the same LVLM by exploiting the staged information flow of multimodal transformers. Instead of removing visual information from the input, SIRA first lets image and text tokens interact through a shared prefix, forming an aligned multimodal state that preserves prompt interpretation, decoding history, positional structure, and early visual grounding. It then forks a counterfactual branch in later transformer layers, where attention to image-token positions is masked. This branch retains the shared multimodal context but lacks continued access to fine-grained visual evidence, yielding a language-prior-dominated internal reference for token-level contrast. During decoding, SIRA suppresses tokens that remain strong without late visual access and favors predictions whose advantage depends on the full visual pathway. Experiments on POPE, CHAIR, and AMBER with Qwen2.5-VL and LLaVA-v1.5 show that SIRA consistently reduces hallucinations while preserving descriptive coverage and incurring lower overhead than two-pass contrastive decoding. SIRA requires no training, external verifier, or perturbed input, and applies to open-weight LVLMs with white-box inference access.

Large language models (LLMs) have become a strong foundation for multi-agent systems, but their effectiveness depends heavily on orchestration design. Across different tasks, role design, capacity assignment, and dependency construction jointly affect both solution quality and execution efficiency. Existing approaches automate parts of this design process, yet they often optimize these decisions partially or sequentially, and rely on execution-level feedback that provides limited credit assignment for local orchestration decisions. We propose LEMON (\textbf{L}earning \textbf{E}xecutable \textbf{M}ulti-agent \textbf{O}rchestratio\textbf{N} via Counterfactual Reinforcement Learning), an LLM-based orchestrator that generates an executable orchestration specification. The specification integrates task-specific roles, customized duties, capacity levels, and dependency structure into a single deployable system. To train the orchestrator, we augment the orchestration-level GRPO objective with a localized counterfactual signal that edits role, capacity, or dependency fields and applies the resulting reward contrast only to the edited spans. Experiments on six reasoning and coding benchmarks, including MMLU, GSM8K, AQuA, MultiArith, SVAMP, and HumanEval, show that LEMON achieves state-of-the-art performance among the evaluated multi-agent orchestration methods. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LEMON-B23C.

Parallelization has played an instrumental role in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), drastically reducing the time taken to train and evaluate large AI models. In contrast to its impact in the broader field of AI, applying parallelization to computational game solving is relatively unexplored, despite its great potential. In this paper, we parallelize the family of counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) algorithms, which were central to important breakthroughs for solving large imperfect-information games. We present a generalized parallelization framework, reframing CFR as a series of linear algebra operations. Then, existing techniques for parallelizing linear algebra operations can be applied to accelerate CFR. We also describe how our technique can be applied to other tabular members of the CFR family of algorithms, including the state-of-the-art, such as CFR+, discounted CFR, and predictive variants of CFR. Experimentally, we show that our CFR implementation on a GPU is up to four orders of magnitude faster than Google DeepMind OpenSpiel's CFR implementations on a CPU.

How should an agent's performance in a multiagent environment be evaluated when there is a limited sample size or a high cost of running a trial? The AIVAT family of variance reduction techniques was proposed to address this challenge by introducing unbiased low-variance estimators of agents' expected payoffs. An important component of AIVAT is a heuristic value function that discriminates between potentially low- and high-value counterfactual histories. A notable gap in the literature is that there is little to no constraint or guideline on how the heuristic value function should be chosen or how uncertainty in its output should be handled. In our first contribution, we parameterize the heuristic value function to highlight AIVAT's potential vulnerabilities: a) the sample variance can be set pathologically low by directly applying gradient descent on the sample variance, and b) one can p-hack to draw a desired statistical conclusion via gradient descent/ascent on the test statistic. The main takeaway is that the heuristic value function should be fixed prior to observing the evaluation data! In our second contribution, we show how the heuristic uncertainty can be propagated to quantify the uncertainty of AIVAT estimates. It is then possible to further reduce the variance using inverse-variance weighted averaging, but AIVAT's unbiasedness guarantee may have to be sacrificed. In our experiments, we use a dataset of 10,000 poker hands to demonstrate our heuristic pathology and uncertainty results, with the latter yielding a 43.0% reduction in the number of samples (poker hands) needed to draw statistical conclusions.

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple environments (e.g., the way minimum wage affects employment rate is stable across different geographical regions), \textit{only} two auxiliary environments are sufficient to infer the causal graph for arbitrary nonlinear mechanisms. Moreover, we demonstrate that this implies identifiability of the SCM functional mechanisms: as a corollary, we show that \textit{two} auxiliary environments are sufficient to guarantee correct counterfactual inference. We empirically support our theoretical results on synthetic data.

Kamon (family crests) are an important part of Japanese culture and a natural test case for compositional visual recognition: each crest combines a small number of symbolic choices, but the space of possible descriptions is sparse. We introduce KamonBench, a grammar-based image-to-structure benchmark with 20,000 synthetic composite crests and auxiliary component examples. Each composite crest is paired with a formal kamon description language - "kamon yōgo" - description, a segmented Japanese analysis, an English translation, and a non-linguistic program code. Because each synthetic crest is generated from known factors, namely container, modifier, and motif, KamonBench supports evaluation beyond caption-level accuracy: direct program-code factor metrics, controlled factor-pair recombination splits, counterfactual motif-sensitivity groups under fixed container-modifier contexts, and linear probes of factor accessibility. We include baseline results for a ViT encoder/Transformer decoder and two VGG n-gram decoders, with and without learned positional masks. KamonBench therefore provides a controlled testbed for sparse compositional visual recognition and factor recovery in vision-language models.

Responsibility allocation -- determining the extent to which agents are accountable for outcomes -- is a fundamental challenge in the design and analysis of multi-agent systems. In this work, we model such systems as concurrent stochastic multi-player games and introduce a notion of retrospective (backward) counterfactual responsibility, which quantifies an agent's accountability for outcomes resulting from a given strategy profile. To allocate responsibility among agents, we utilise the Shapley value and formally show that this method satisfies key desirable properties, including fairness and consistency. Building on this foundation, we propose a formal framework that supports both verification and strategic reasoning in responsibility-aware multi-agent systems. Furthermore, by adopting Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we demonstrate how to compute stable strategy profiles in which agents trade off responsibility against expected reward.

The geometry of the retinal vessel is a key biomarker of vascular diseases, yet clinical evidence remains primarily observational. Existing generative counterfactuals intervene only at the image-level disease label, failing to isolate explicit anatomical structure. To address this limitation, we propose the Bézier Tree Encoding Counterfactual Framework (BTECF). By abstracting vascular networks into interconnected cubic-Bézier segments, BTECF establishes a disease-agnostic representation in which structural topology is explicitly preserved and atomically perturbable. Coupling this encoding with a diffusion-based generator enables parameter-level do-interventions on explicit geometric axes (e.g., tortuosity, caliber) while preserving background fundus textures. We validate BTECF on diabetic retinopathy, together with independent cohorts for ischemic stroke and Alzheimer's disease. Isolated counterfactual interventions produce dose-responsive shifts in classifier predictions; a matched pixel-drop control attenuates this response by an order of magnitude or more, ruling out out-of-distribution generation artifacts. By enforcing causal isolation between vessel topology and pixel-level confounders, BTECF provides a unified generative paradigm for hypothesis verification across systemic diseases. To support reproducibility, the code will be publicly released upon acceptance.

Machine learning algorithms in socially sensitive domains (e.g., credit decisions) often focus on equalizing predictive outcomes. However, satisfying these metrics does not guarantee that models use the same reasoning for different groups. We show that existing outcome-fair models can still apply fundamentally different reasoning to individuals, a hidden procedural bias'' missed by standard fairness metrics and algorithms. We propose Counterfactual Explanation Consistency (CEC), a framework that detects and mitigates this bias by aligning feature attributions between individuals and their counterfactual counterparts. Key contributions include a nearest-neighbor counterfactual generation method, a modified baseline for integrated gradient comparisons, an individual-level procedural fairness metric, and a corresponding training loss. We introduce a taxonomy identifying Regime B'' (same outcome, different reasoning) as a critical blind spot. Experiments on synthetic data, German Credit, Adult Income, and HMDA mortgage data demonstrate that outcome-fair baselines exhibit substantial hidden bias, while CEC substantially reduces it with modest utility cost.

Self-generated counterfactual explanations (SCEs) are minimally modified inputs (minimality) generated by large language models (LLMs) that flip their own predictions (validity), offering a causally grounded approach to unraveling black-box LLM behavior. Yet extending them beyond English remains challenging: existing methods struggle to produce valid SCEs in non-dominant languages, and a persistent trade-off between validity and minimality undermines explanation quality. We introduce Macro, a preference alignment framework that applies Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to multilingual SCE generation, using a composite scoring function to construct preference pairs that effectively translate the trade-off into measurable preference signals. Experiments across four LLMs and seven typologically diverse languages show that Macro improves validity by 12.55% on average over the chain-of-thought baseline without degrading minimality, while avoiding the severe minimality violations of the translation-based baseline. Compared to supervised fine-tuning, Macro achieves superior performance on both metrics, confirming that explicit preference optimization is essential for balancing this trade-off. Further analyses reveal that Macro increases cross-lingual perturbation alignment and mitigates common generation errors. Our results highlight preference optimization as a promising direction for enhancing multilingual model explanations.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have heterogeneous strengths across OCR, chart understanding, spatial reasoning, visual question answering, cost, and latency. Effective MLLM routing therefore requires more than estimating query difficulty: a router must match the multimodal requirements of the current image-question input with the capabilities of each candidate model. We propose LatentRouter, a router that formulates MLLM routing as counterfactual multimodal utility prediction. Given an image-question query, LatentRouter extracts learned multimodal routing capsules, represents each candidate MLLM with a model capability token, and performs latent communication between these states to estimate how each model would perform if selected. A distributional outcome head predicts model-specific counterfactual quality, while a bounded capsule correction refines close decisions without allowing residual signals to dominate the prediction. The resulting utility-based policy supports performance-oriented and performance-cost routing, and handles changing candidate pools through shared per-model scoring with availability masking. Experiments on MMR-Bench and VL-RouterBench show that LatentRouter outperforms fixed-model, feature-level, and learned-router baselines. Additional analyses show that the gains are strongest on multimodal task groups where model choice depends on visual, layout-sensitive, or reasoning-oriented requirements, and that latent communication is the main contributor to the improvement. The code is available at: https://github.com/LabRAI/LatentRouter.

This paper presents a proof-of-concept digital twin framework for simulation-driven diabetes modeling using benchmark clinical data, synthetic temporal augmentation, and illustrative continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) analysis. Unlike traditional predictive models, the framework focuses on generating interpretable simulated trajectories rather than clinically validated outcomes. Evaluation is conducted using a public dataset combined with controlled synthetic scenarios to illustrate temporal behavior and intervention effects. Results illustrate the feasibility of integrating prediction with counterfactual simulation for decision-aware analysis. This work does not claim clinical readiness but provides a foundation for future research on simulation-driven digital twin systems in healthcare.

Deep learning models in medical imaging often fail when deployed in new clinical environments due to distribution shifts in demographics, scanner hardware, or acquisition protocols. A central challenge is underspecification, where models with similar validation performance exhibit divergent real-world failure modes. Although stress testing has emerged as a tool to assess this, current methods typically rely on simple, uninformed perturbations (e.g., brightness or contrast changes), which fail to capture clinically realistic variation and can overestimate robustness. In this work, we introduce a counterfactual stress testing framework based on causal generative models that create realistic "what if" images by intervening on attributes such as scanner type and patient sex while preserving anatomical identity, enabling controlled and semantically meaningful evaluation under targeted distribution shifts. Across two imaging modalities (chest X-ray and mammography), three model architectures, and multiple shift scenarios, we show that counterfactual stress tests provide a substantially more accurate proxy for real out-of-distribution performance than classical perturbations, capturing the direction and relative magnitude of performance changes as well as model ranking. These results suggest that causal generative models can serve as practical simulators for robustness assessment, offering a more reliable basis for evaluating medical AI systems prior to deployment.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in chart understanding, largely driven by supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on increasingly large synthetic datasets. However, scaling SFT data alone is inefficient and overlooks a key property of charts: charts are programmatically generated visual artifacts, where small, code-controlled visual changes can induce drastic shifts in semantics and correct answers. Learning this counterfactual sensitivity requires VLMs to discriminate fine-grained visual differences, yet standard SFT treats training instances independently and provides limited supervision to enforce this behavior. To address this, we introduce ChartCF, a data-efficient training framework designed to enhance counterfactual sensitivity. ChartCF consists of: (1) a counterfactual data synthesis pipeline via code modification, (2) a chart similarity-based data selection strategy that filters overly difficult samples for improved training efficiency, and (3) multimodal preference optimization across both textual and visual modalities. Experiments on five benchmarks show that ChartCF achieves superior or comparable performance to strong chart-specific VLMs while using significantly less training data.

Safety-critical planning in complex environments, particularly at urban intersections, remains a fundamental challenge for autonomous driving. Existing methods, whether rule-based or data-driven, frequently struggle to capture complex scene semantics, infer potential risks, and make reliable decisions in rare, high-risk situations. While vision-language models (VLMs) offer promising approaches for safe decision-making in these environments, most current approaches lack reflective and causal reasoning, thereby limiting their overall robustness. To address this, we propose a counterfactual chain-of-thought (C-CoT) framework that leverages VLMs to decompose driving decisions into five sequential stages: scene description, critical object identification, risk prediction, counterfactual risk reasoning, and final action planning. Within the counterfactual reasoning stage, we introduce a structured meta-action evaluation tree to explicitly assess the potential consequences of alternative action combinations. This self-reflective reasoning establishes causal links between action choices and safety outcomes, improving robustness in long-tail and out-of-distribution scenarios. To validate our approach, we construct the DeepAccident-CCoT dataset based on the DeepAccident benchmark and fine-tune a Qwen2.5-VL (7B) model using low-rank adaptation. Our model achieves a risk prediction recall of 81.9%, reduces the collision rate to 3.52%, and lowers L2 error to 1.98 m. Ablation studies further confirm the critical role of counterfactual reasoning and the meta-action evaluation tree in enhancing safety and interpretability.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions. Methodological work typically relies on semi-simulated benchmarks and metrics that require counterfactual outcomes, whereas real-world applications rely on observable metrics based on ranking or test outcomes. Despite the well-known gap between methodological progress and practical deployment, the relationship between these evaluation regimes has not been examined systematically. We conduct a large-scale empirical study of treatment effect evaluation across standard semi-simulated benchmark families and real-world datasets. Our benchmark covers meta-learners paired with multiple base learners, as well as specialized causal machine learning models. We evaluate these methods using observable metrics common in application-oriented literature, alongside counterfactual metrics commonly used in methods papers. Our results reveal two complementary gaps. First, counterfactual metrics do not reliably recover the estimators preferred by observable metrics, even on the same semi-simulated benchmarks. Second, rankings obtained on semi-simulated benchmarks do not transfer to real datasets. We further find that simple meta-learners with strong base models are consistently competitive, in contrast to specialized causal models. Overall, our findings suggest that progress in treatment effect estimation research should not be assessed solely through counterfactual metrics and semi-simulated benchmarks, but it would benefit from incorporating observable metrics and real-data validation.

Distributional causal inference requires estimating not only average treatment effects but also interventional outcome distributions, including quantiles, tail risks, and policy-dependent uncertainty. As a method for distributional causal inference, generative adversarial network (GAN)-based counterfactual methods are flexible tools for this task. However, these methods have several limitations. First, the objectives of certain techniques do not coincide with the statistical risk of the identifiable causal target, and therefore provide limited theoretical guarantees regarding estimable counterfactual distributions or optimality. Second, they tend to rely on unstable density-based methods, such as density ratio estimation. In this paper, we propose GANICE (GAN for Interventional Conditional Estimation) with several advantages: it (i) clarifies the conditional interventional distribution for each treatment--covariate state as the causal estimation target; (ii) estimates the conditional distribution such that its averaged Wasserstein risk is minimized; (iii) establishes minimax optimality. GANICE achieves these advantages through the introduction of the extended Wasserstein distance, the incorporation of a cellwise critic in its dual, and an optimality proof based on Besov space theory. Our experiments demonstrate that GANICE consistently outperforms existing methods.

Recent studies suggest that Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) is inherently more resilient to catastrophic forgetting than Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). However, whether RFT (e.g., GRPO) can effectively overcome forgetting in challenging visual continual learning settings, such as class-incremental learning (CIL) and domain-incremental learning (DIL), remains an open problem. Through a pilot study, we confirm that while RFT consistently outperforms SFT, it still suffers from non-negligible forgetting. We empirically trace this bottleneck to Trajectory-level Drift Agnosticism: among candidate rollouts achieving identical task rewards, the KL divergence from the preceding-task policy varies substantially, which strongly correlates with catastrophic forgetting across sequential tasks. Motivated by this insight, we propose Retention-aware Policy Optimization (RaPO), a simple yet effective RFT method that explicitly mitigates forgetting through trajectory-level reward shaping. Specifically, RaPO comprises two core components: (1) Retention Reward that converts trajectory-level distribution drift into a continuous reward signal, preferentially reinforcing knowledge-preserving rollouts within each group; (2) Cross-Task Advantage Normalization (CTAN), which maintains a persistent exponential moving average of reward statistics across task boundaries to stabilize the optimization progress during continual learning. Leveraging the free-form textual generalization of MLLMs, we comprehensively evaluate RaPO across five visual continual learning settings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RaPO achieves leading performance, substantially reducing catastrophic forgetting while preserving strong plasticity. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first systematic exploration of RFT in visual continual learning, offering insights that we hope will inspire future research.

Visual Grounding benchmarks assume that the object described by a referring expression is always present in the image, and grounding models are therefore rarely evaluated under semantically mismatched captions. In such cases, models frequently exhibit approximation behavior, producing a plausible bounding box that satisfies only part of the expression (\eg, preserving the original object while ignoring modified contextual cues). Because mismatched captions represent realistic edge cases, this behavior compromises reliability and raises concerns from an explainability perspective. Identifying its underlying causes is thus essential for improving model faithfulness and interpretability. Adopting a mechanistic interpretability viewpoint, this work examines whether embedding anisotropy contributes to counterfactual failures. A similarity-controlled counterfactual caption generation protocol is introduced to systematically perturb object or contextual components within predefined embedding similarity intervals, enabling a fine-grained analysis of grounding behavior as a function of alignment. Experiments on two Transformer-based models with markedly different embedding geometries (BERT-based TransVG and CLIP-based SwimVG) reveal no meaningful correlation between cosine similarity and approximation. These findings suggest that anisotropy alone does not account for counterfactual errors, and that robustness requires investigating finer-grained geometric properties of the embedding space.

Large Reasoning Models possess remarkable capabilities for self-correction in general domain; however, they frequently struggle to recover from unsafe reasoning trajectories under adversarial attacks. Existing alignment methods attempt to mitigate this vulnerability by fine-tuning the model on expert data including reflection traces or adversarial prefixes. Crucially, these approaches are often hindered by static training data which inevitably deviate from model's dynamic, on-policy reasoning traces, resulting in model hardly covering its vast generation space and learning to recover from its own failures. To bridge this gap, we propose Self-ReSET, a pure reinforcement learning framework designed to equip LRMs with the intrinsic capacity to recover from their own safety error trajectories, which are subsequently reused as an initial state for reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments across various LRMs and benchmarks demonstrate that Self-ReSET significantly enhances robustness against adversarial attacks especially out-of-distribution (OOD) jailbreak prompts while maintaining general utility, along with efficient data utilization. Further analysis reveals that our method effectively fosters self-recovery patterns, enabling models to better identify and recover from unsafe intermediate error states back to benign paths. Our codes and data are available at https://github.com/Ing1024/Self-ReSET.

Log anomaly detection is a critical task for system operations and security assurance. However, in networked systems at scale, log data are generated at massive scale while instance-level annotations are prohibitively expensive, posing great difficulties to fine-grained anomaly localization. To address this challenge, we propose LogMILP (Log anomaly localization based on Multi-Instance Learning enhanced by prototypes and Perturbation), a weakly supervised framework that enables both bag-level anomaly detection and instance-level anomaly localization using only bag-level labels. Our method guides the model to pinpoint the critical log entries using prototype-guided structural modeling with counterfactual perturbation consistency regularization, thereby improving localization reliability and interpretability under coarse-grained supervision. Experimental results on three public datasets demonstrate that LogMILP achieves competitive detection performance while yielding significantly more reliable instance-level localization. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/YUK1207/LogMILP.

Natural Language Processing is rapidly evolving into a primary instrument for Computational Social Science, with researchers increasingly using embeddings to measure latent constructs such as novelty, creativity, and bias. However, this transition faces a fundamental validity challenge: the ''Proxy Presumption,'' or the reliance on geometric properties (e.g., cosine distance) as direct measures of social concepts. We argue that without explicit validation, unsupervised representations remain entangled mixtures of the target construct ($C$) and confounding attributes ($Z$) like topic, style, and authorship. To bridge the gap between semantic embeddings and valid social measures, we introduce the Construct Validity Protocol (CVP). Drawing on causal representation learning and psychometrics, the CVP offers a rigorous pipeline from conceptualization to quantitative verification. We further propose Counterfactual Neutralization, a novel method using LLMs to reduce confounding in embedding space. By providing a standardized Validity Suite -- including tests for discriminant, incremental, and predictive validity -- this work offers the community a toolkit to transform heuristic proxies into robust, scientifically defensible instruments.

Marketing decisions reflect the interaction of latent consumer heterogeneity, time-varying internal states, and explicit interventions, a structure that current prediction- and language-oriented models do not capture in a unified manner. We propose a Three-in-One world-model architecture in which a Deep Boltzmann Machine (DBM) learns a frozen belief representation from demographics, time, and lagged actions and outcomes, with lightweight task-specific adapters attached on top. The same belief supports three tasks within a single framework: (i) energy-based consistency evaluation through the DBM's free energy, (ii) outcome prediction through adapters, and (iii) counterfactual inference by holding the belief fixed and varying only the action input given to the adapter. Using a controlled simulation in which the latent price sensitivity, promotion responsiveness, and base preference of each consumer are known, we show that the adapters match a strong MLP baseline on visit- and purchase-AUC while recovering heterogeneous treatment effects substantially better than S-, T-, X-, and DR-learner meta-learners and a Causal Forest baseline built on the same raw features, with the largest gap on a confounded price-promotion intervention. Complementing this, free-energy clamps systematically penalize counterfactual purchase trajectories that lack prior promotional exposure, and the penalty itself depends on the latent base preference in the expected direction. These results indicate that DBM beliefs disentangle latent traits in a form that survives counterfactual queries, providing an integrated world-model substrate for marketing intervention.

Adaptive test-time compute for LLM agents aims to invoke extra computation only when it improves performance. Existing methods typically use confidence-, uncertainty-, or difficulty-based gates, assuming a fixed direction from the gating signal through compute need to the value of computation. This makes gating a utility-calibration problem: gating signals should align with whether extra computation improves the final outcome over the base policy. We show that this alignment is unstable: the same signal predicts rollout benefit in one setting and rollout harm in another, with reversals across environments and backbones even when the task is fixed. Wrong-direction gates can therefore worsen performance by precisely selecting harmful states. This reversal reflects a deeper distinction between compute need and compute suitability: a high uncertainty signal may indicate decision-difficult states where rollouts help compare alternatives, or intervention-unsuitable states where the current context does not support useful rollout-based improvement. Under this two-source model, fixed-direction gates are unreliable across heterogeneous settings. To address this, we propose DIAL (Direction-Informed Adaptive Learning), a sparse gate trained from signal-agnostic counterfactual exploration to learn the utility direction of state features per (environment, backbone). Across six environments and three backbones, DIAL yields a stronger overall success-cost trade-off than fixed-direction baselines.

Trust in counterfactual explanations depends critically on whether their recommended changes are truly minimal: suboptimal explanations may vastly overshoot the actual changes needed to alter a decision, and heuristic errors can affect individuals unevenly, giving some users relevant recourse while assigning others unnecessarily costly recommendations. Consequently, we study the problem of computing optimal counterfactual explanations for tree ensembles under plausibility and actionability constraints. This is a combinatorial problem: for a fixed model, counterfactual search boils down to selecting consistent branching decisions and threshold-defined regions under a distance objective. We exploit this structure through CPCF, a constraint programming (CP) formulation in which numerical features are encoded as interval domains induced by split thresholds, while discrete features retain native finite-domain representations. This yields a compact finite-domain formulation that supports multiple distance objectives without continuous split-boundary search. We then place CPCF in a broader comparison across mathematical programming paradigms: we extend a maximum Boolean satisfiability (MaxSAT) formulation, originally designed for hard-voting random forests, to soft-voting ensembles, and compare against the current state-of-the-art mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimal approach. Across ten datasets and three types of tree ensembles, we analyze scalability, anytime performance, and sensitivity to distance metrics. We observe that CP achieves the best overall performance. More importantly, our results identify regimes in which the specific strengths of each paradigm make it best suited: CP is most versatile overall, MaxSAT handles hard-voting ensembles particularly well, and MILP remains competitive in amortized inference settings with a moderate number of split levels.

We propose a causal reasoning framework for creative robot tool use where a suitable tool for a task is correctly identified for use beyond its primary objectives. The proposed framework first discovers the causal relationships between the tool and the task by conducting simulated experiments in a dynamics model. We decouple the causal discovery problem into two complementary components: VLM-based feature suggestion and counterfactual tool generation via targeted geometric and physical feature perturbations. Then, novel objects are classified based on identified causal features, and the tool use skill is transferred via keypoint matching conditioned on the identified causal features. By reconstructing the task in a dynamics model, our approach grounds tool use in the physics of the problem. We illustrate our approach in reaching a distant object with different sticks, scooping candies from a bowl using diverse items, and using different boxes or crates as stepping platforms to retrieve an object from a high shelf. Our baseline comparisons show that identifying causal features and grounding them in physical tool properties leads to more reliable tool selection and stronger skill keypoint transfer.