Covariance Estimation

Locating a vehicle and determining its orientation in an uncertain environment is a critical challenge in autonomous vehicle navigation and path planning. To address these challenges, a vehicle estimates its pose while depending on sensor data that offer noisy measurements. These uncertainties in pose quantities are expressed mathematically as a covariance matrix. The real-time computation of the covariance matrix is critical because of the non-linearity involved in the kinematic model. The challenge is thus to evaluate the evolution of the covariance matrix of a vehicle's discretized stochastic kinematics. The purpose of this study is to obtain a near-accurate evolution of the covariance matrix of the rear-wheel bicycle kinematic model under uncertainties in wheel displacement and steering angle. We used Taylor's series to linearize the nonlinear trigonometric functions and provided closed-form expectations of random variables with the required accuracy. Our analytical findings are in good agreement with those obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations. Our contribution is probably the first detailed closed-form presentation of the covariance matrix constituents of the vehicle under evaluation, which were previously reported either incorrectly or incompletely. These findings aid in identifying the potential and constraints of the discretized kinematic model as well as its stochastic analysis. The techniques presented here are useful for the simultaneous localization and odometry self-calibration of certain mobile robots and autonomous vehicles.

Causal representation learning for time series has developed strong identifiability results in discrete-time latent causal models, but identifiability in continuous-time latent stochastic differential equation (SDE) models remains largely open. We address this gap using environment-induced shifts in diffusion covariance. We study additive-noise latent SDEs observed through an unknown nonlinear diffeomorphism, with shared drift but environment-specific diffusion covariance. We show that two diagonal diffusion regimes with pairwise distinct coordinate-wise variance ratios identify the latent coordinates up to permutation and scaling, without any sparsity assumption on the drift. We first prove this result for linear Ornstein--Uhlenbeck systems and then extend it to general additive-noise latent SDEs. Under mild smoothness, the instantaneous drift-Jacobian causal graph is identifiable up to the same permutation. We propose a two-stage estimator for latent disentanglement and optional graph recovery; experiments on synthetic systems confirm the predicted identifiability boundary, and an application to Hardanger Bridge monitoring data illustrates the approach on real sensor trajectories.

Statistical adversarial detection (SAD) treats detection as a two-sample test. Given a reference set of clean examples (CEs) and a batch of queries, potentially containing an unknown mixture of CEs and adversarial examples (AEs), SAD decides whether the query distribution drifts away from the CE distribution while controlling the false-alarm rate. Existing SAD-based methods mainly use maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to measure the distributional discrepancy. However, MMD's distributional properties limit its ability to capture characteristic uncertainty patterns of AEs that are crucial for detection: AEs typically exhibit abnormal feature spread (i.e., global uncertainty) and instability under perturbations (i.e., local uncertainty). To close the gap, we propose Uncertainty-aware Statistical Adversarial Detection (USAD), which explicitly captures these uncertainty patterns with two new statistics: (1) Variance Discrepancy (VD), which measures the difference in feature spread between AEs and CEs to capture global uncertainty differences. (2) Perturbation-based Covariance Discrepancy (PCD), which compares feature covariance under Gaussian perturbations to capture local uncertainty differences. By aggregating VD and PCD, USAD achieves superior detection performances over baseline methods against various adversarial attacks, highlighting the importance of considering characteristic behaviors of AEs for effective SAD. Our code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/USAD.

The global minimum-variance portfolio (GMVP) is the canonical decision built from an estimated covariance matrix, yet covariance estimators are universally evaluated by matrix-norm loss, which is not the object the decision depends on. We characterise exactly how covariance-estimation error maps into GMVP suboptimality. We prove an exact regret identity and a non-asymptotic bound showing decision regret depends on the estimation error only through its action on the portfolio weights, scaled by portfolio concentration and the conditioning of the true covariance. From this we derive the decision geometry: GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the p^2-dimensional error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case. We then apply the framework to heavy-tailed returns (tail index kappa in (2,4)), establishing the regret convergence rate implied by the centred operator-norm rate, and confirm the theory on a skew-t/t-copula simulation design with pre-registered analysis. The decision-focused advantage is a sharper constant and a concentration discount rather than a faster rate; we report an honest high-conditioning boundary of the rate prediction. The results complement recent decision-focused learning approaches by supplying the exact estimation geometry and consistency theory they lack.

Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty is difficult for complex, high-dimensional, or misspecified models. Both fully Bayesian and bootstrap resampling methods provide principled uncertainty estimates but are often too expensive for modern machine-learning models because they require posterior sampling or repeated model refitting. We introduce Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty. Ribbon replaces repeated refitting with an influence-function linearization around a single fitted model, preserving the first-order data-reweighting structure of the Bayesian bootstrap while requiring only post-hoc linear algebra. Ribbon approximates the Bayesian-bootstrap or weighted-likelihood-bootstrap refitting target. With a general concentration parameter, Ribbon gives a calibrated Dirichlet-reweighting family whose uncertainty scale can be tuned on validation data. We show that Ribbon is asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification and recovers the robust sandwich covariance under misspecification. Across synthetic regression, MNIST classification, and California Housing benchmarks, Ribbon provides competitive predictive performance and improved calibration in several settings while avoiding repeated model retraining.

We study a solvable high-dimensional model of generative adversarial network (GAN) training in which a linear generator learns a low-dimensional subspace from data with structured latent covariance. Prior solvable GAN analyses assume unconditional signals with diagonal latent covariance; we extend the multi-feature discriminator setting to class-dependent, correlated, and non-zero-mean latent structure. For the quadratic energy discriminator, all such heterogeneity enters the dynamics through a probability-weighted effective second moment. We prove that the stochastic microscopic training process converges, in the high-dimensional limit, to deterministic ordinary differential equations governed by this effective covariance. In the matched-covariance specialization, the stability analysis yields a mode-wise solvable interval determined by the learning rates and noise level: learning begins when the leading effective eigenvalue crosses the lower threshold, while full recovery requires all relevant effective modes to remain within the interval. This reveals a signal-boosting mechanism: low-rank correlations can lift weak directions above the learnability threshold, whereas overly strong correlations destabilize recovery. Numerical simulations validate the ODE, phase boundary, and boosting mechanism. Experiments on MNIST, FashionMNIST, and CIFAR-10 further show that informed generator covariance improves alignment with the data-driven reference subspace.

The minimum variance distortionless response (MVDR) beamformer is widely used for multichannel speech enhancement due to strong noise suppression while preserving target signals. In practice, its performance is sensitive to microphone self-noise and array mismatches. Existing approaches typically rely on fixed, manually tuned WNG thresholds or diagonal loading, leading to suboptimal performance under unknown or time-varying acoustic conditions. This paper proposes a data-driven MVDR framework that adaptively estimates the WNG constraint using a deep neural network. The network jointly predicts a time-frequency noise mask for covariance estimation and a frequency-dependent WNG threshold, enabling dynamic robustness-directivity control. A differentiable robust MVDR layer is integrated into the framework, allowing end-to-end optimization. Experiments demonstrate consistent improvements in speech quality and intelligibility over conventional fixed-WNG MVDR methods.

We study high-dimensional differentially private (DP) covariance estimation in the operator norm, and principal component analysis (PCA), under $k$-row-column sparsity ($k$-RCS) of the covariance matrix. In the non-private setting, it is known that $\mathsf{poly}(k, \log d)$ samples suffice to solve both of these problems. However, the only comparable result known under DP (Wang et al. 2021) requires $Ω(d)$ samples under standard parameterizations of the problem. We investigate when this curse of dimensionality is inherent for sparse covariance estimation tasks under DP. On the upper bound front, we show that a $\mathsf{poly}(k, \log d)$ sample complexity for PCA is possible under DP, if we also posit sparsity of the leading eigenvector. We complement this result with $\mathsf{poly}(d)$ lower bounds under DP for both sparse covariance estimation and PCA, establishing an exponential gap between the private and non-private variants of these problems when $k = \mathsf{polylog}(d)$. To our knowledge, no such separation has previously been demonstrated for any sparse estimation problems in private high-dimensional statistics. Our techniques are flexible enough that they imply stronger lower bounds even for the well-studied problem of standard DP PCA, without sparsity assumptions.

In the era of big data, subsampling became a common practice in statistical learning. By selecting a subgroup of individuals based on which the learner is trained, subsampling aims at reducing the computational cost and time of the estimation step, and ideally leads to a decrease of its energy consumption and carbon footprint. This work focuses on a nonparametric setting, in which the hypotheses set lies in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and the estimator is a minimizer of an empirical risk reweighted à la Horvitz-Thompson. By studying the asymptotic properties of this estimator, we reveal an optimal subsampling scheme (regarding the trace of the covariance operator) and show that it can be used via plug-in. A numerical study on synthetic and real-world datasets shows the practicability and the benefit of the proposed approach.

We study the problem of system identification in heterogeneous settings, where different systems may follow distinct underlying dynamics. Existing clustered system identification approaches often rely on iterative training-based cluster assignment, which can be sensitive to learning uncertainty and model initialization. In contrast, we propose a one-shot, training-free clustering method that identifies similar systems using the structure of their locally observed data. Specifically, each system estimates a local state covariance matrix, and cluster identities are inferred by measuring the alignment between the leading covariance eigenspaces of different systems. We provide a mathematical interpretation of the proposed similarity score and develop a finite-sample analysis that characterizes how covariance estimation error induces eigenspace perturbations in terms of the underlying system dynamics. We then derive a probability bound for pairwise false merges and a global clustering success guarantee. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed eigenspace-based clustering method effectively identifies systems with shared dynamics, leading to lower personalized model-estimation error compared with training-based clustering and non-clustered baselines.

Sensor measurements are frequently corrupted by outliers and non-Gaussian noise. These imperfections in the sensor data can cause classical state estimators to generate biased and unreliable state and uncertainty estimates. Robust estimators reject or downweight outliers but do not perform measurement covariance estimation, whereas joint state and covariance estimators assume Gaussian residuals and fixed loss shape parameters. Integrating these two capabilities into a single framework is an opportunity to simultaneously estimate both state and covariance in the presence of outliers. This paper proposes a unified Block-Coordinate Descent framework that combines a norm-aware adaptive robust loss, an Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares state update, and a Minimum Weighted Covariance Determinant covariance estimator, yielding a self-tuning joint state and covariance estimator. The framework is evaluated in a Monte-Carlo simulation and on real-world ultra-wideband localization experiments in cluttered non-line-of-sight environments. Results show that the proposed estimator consistently recovers the true inlier measurement covariance and matches or exceeds the state estimation accuracy of all baselines, without requiring any manual parameter tuning.

Linear probes are widely used in interpretability research and often compared by cosine similarity. The Mahalanobis cosine similarity (MCS) between two directions, which reweights the inner product by test data covariance, is a natural task-aware refinement. Ying et al. (2026) report that a probe's MCS to a reference probe trained on the out-of-distribution (OOD) data near-perfectly linearly predicts the probe's OOD AUROC (R^2 = 0.98). Here, we extend this empirical finding across models, layers, and concept domains, and prove this general phenomenon in closed form: For balanced classes whose projections are Gaussian, OOD AUROC and MCS to the reference probe are linear because both are sigmoid-shaped functions of the probe's signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) on the test data. The theory also predicts when this linearity fails, which we verify empirically. MCS offers a theoretically grounded and empirically effective alternative to Euclidean cosine similarity for comparing linear probes.

Pretrained transformers sit near singular minima of the loss, where the Fisher information metric degenerates along dead directions: directions in parameter space along which the directional Fisher vanishes. Locating such a direction normally needs a forward pass and an eigendecomposition of activations, or a sampling-based complexity estimate; none returns a direction computable from the network's parameters alone. We give one, for LayerNorm transformers. The inverse-scale direction $γ^{-1}/\|γ^{-1}\|$ of the LayerNorm affine is an exact algebraic kernel of the post-final-norm centred activation covariance, for any input distribution, and induces a corresponding dead direction in parameter space. It is read from the LN scale parameter alone, with no forward or backward pass and no eigensolve: the cheapest dead-direction read, specific to LayerNorm. We test it on $14$ pretrained transformers ($9$ LayerNorm, $5$ RMSNorm; $160$M-$35$B; language and vision objectives). At random initialisation the predicted direction matches the measured bottom singular direction (one forward pass, direct SVD) to four decimal places on $9/9$ LayerNorm models, and is correctly absent on $5/5$ RMSNorm models, which lack the mean-subtraction projector that creates it. On the trained checkpoint the covariance eigenvalue along this direction deepens by ${\sim}10^3\times$ and further dead directions open; the random-init-to-trained gap is a one-forward-pass, per-checkpoint readout of singular structure along the predicted coordinate. Two consequences follow in closed form: the residual stream's smallest singular value is preserved block-to-block on $13/14$ transformers measured on their own input distribution, the one exception (Gemma$4$-$31$B) a genuine dead direction the same read pinpoints; and the kernel direction's presence classifies a transformer's normalisation from the parameters alone.

We develop finite-sample certificates for local population-risk increments $Pδ_v=R(θ_0+v)-R(θ_0)$, $v\in\mathcal D$. The primitive object is an expected-valid upper endpoint $\widehat{\mathsf U}_{\mathcal D}$ satisfying $\mathbb E\sup_{v\in\mathcal D} \{Pδ_v-\widehat{\mathsf U}_{\mathcal D}(v)\}\le0$. This uniform criterion certifies any measurable update selected from the same sample and allows penalties to depend on empirical geometry. The main construction is a cross-fitted ridge calibration for linear feature classes. A pilot fold learns the ridge metric, the complementary fold calibrates the squared mean error in that metric, and complete split averaging recovers the full empirical covariance in the directional quadratic form $\widehat q_{X,λ}$. The optimized diagnostic scale is $\{\widehat q_{X,λ}(h) \widehat r_{X,n_{\rm p},λ}^{\rm cf}/n\}^{1/2}$, and the calibrated trace factor $\widehat r_{X,n_{\rm p},λ}^{\rm cf}$ is compared with the ordinary ridge effective dimension $\widehat r_{X,λ}$. For nonsmooth losses, an exact fixed-mask decomposition $δ_v=J_v^0+R_v^\circ+C_v$ separates frozen Taylor fluctuations, good-path remainders, and interface crossings. Applying the linear and composite certificates componentwise yields endpoints for same-sample expected local search and concentrated release rules.

Training-free neural architecture search promises efficient discovery of high-performance networks without costly training. However, existing zero-cost proxies rely on fragmented heuristics that fail to capture the fundamental question: what makes an architecture trainable? This paper introduces Intrinsic Trainability (InTrain), a unified theoretical proxy that formalizes trainability as an architectural invariant emerging from two synergistic components: geometric capacity and optimization resilience. We operationalize intrinsic trainability through analysis of neural information processing. Geometric capacity is quantified via the participation ratio of activation covariance eigenspectrum, capturing the effective dimensionality of representation manifolds. Optimization resilience is measured through cumulative gradient health, assessing the robustness of backpropagation across network depth. InTrain synthesizes these dimensions through a scale-invariant multiplicative coupling, which we hypothesize is essential for capturing their synergistic, non-additive relationship. Extensive experiments on standard NAS benchmarks and search spaces demonstrate that InTrain achieves ranking correlations on par with state-of-the-art ensemble-based proxies and outperforms other single-metric methods.

This article introduces a unified framework for the parametric analysis and reproduction of spatial sound scenes captured either as Ambisonic signals or as raw microphone array signals. The proposed method estimates time-frequency-dependent spatial metadata that characterises a variable number of primary source components and an ambience component with its own angular power distribution, whose parameters fit the observed spatial covariances of the captured signals. This metadata is used to construct spatial covariances of the target playback formats, which are then used to derive optimal mixing matrices for transcoding the scene for playback over the target reproduction system. The method additionally handles independent rotations of both capture and playback setups. Real-time implementations of the method and other existing state-of-the-art parametric renderers are compared in a listening test using simulated scenes from Ambisonic, spherical, and head-worn arrays. The results highlight perceptual benefits of the proposed framework across a diverse range of content and receiver configurations, particularly for lower-order and geometrically constrained microphone arrays.

Temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation is a core method for policy evaluation. Its classical continuous-time description is an ordinary differential equation (ODE), which captures the asymptotic mean dynamics but neglects stochastic fluctuations determining the error floor. We introduce a stochastic differential equation (SDE) approximation for linear TD(0) under Markovian noise. The resulting model distinguishes the contraction dynamics governed by the projected Bellman operator from the influence of Markovian sampling. As a consequence, the model explains the constant-stepsize error floor through the interaction between Markovian long-run covariance and the contraction geometry of the projected Bellman operator.

Causal discovery seeks to uncover the causal dependencies among variables. For this purpose, we propose an algorithm called Tensor-based Second-order Causal Discovery (TSCD). Its input is a tensor obtained from the covariance matrices of observational and interventional data. Assuming the causal dependencies follow a linear structural equation model on a directed acyclic graph (DAG), TSCD outputs the DAG and the functions on its edges, requiring only that the noise variables are uncorrelated. We also implement a version of the approach for nonlinear models. Our focus on second-order statistics (via the covariance matrices) is motivated by their statistical and computational efficiency relative to higher-order moments, their identifiability relative to first-order statistics, and that they work regardless of whether the variables are Gaussian. We show that TSCD has identifiable causal order and parameters from a number of interventions that is logarithmic in the number of variables. Experiments show that TSCD is robust to noise, competitive with existing methods, and scales to hundreds of variables.

Constraint-based causal discovery relies on repeated conditional independence tests, but fast nonparametric tests often sacrifice calibration, especially when variables depend on the conditioning set through nonlinear relationships. We introduce BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation), a nonparametric conditional independence test designed to run well under a second while maintaining the accuracy needed for the thousands of queries performed by constraint-based causal discovery algorithms. BLITZ first removes broad smooth dependence on the conditioning set using low-order polynomial regression, then applies a small nonlinear feature map and residualizes those features with shallow tree regressions. The resulting statistic tests residual cross-covariance, with a moment-matched chi-square approximation to the null distribution. We show theoretically that the two-stage design reduces the effective complexity faced by the tree residualizers, allowing shallow trees to control residual conditional-mean bias while avoiding excessive overfitting. In simulations, BLITZ provides better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors while remaining among the fastest methods tested. In causal discovery experiments on synthetic graphs and flow-cytometry data, BLITZ yields more reliable endpoint orientations among retained adjacencies and competitive structural recovery. These results suggest that broad-to-local residualization is a practical route to calibrated, scalable nonparametric conditional independence testing for causal discovery.

In Self-Supervised Learning (SSL), preventing representation collapse by explicitly enforcing a uniform distribution on the unit hypersphere has proven to be effective. However, current frameworks typically rely on sliced statistical regularizers such as SIGReg (used in LeJEPA) and SUSReg (used in SPHERE-JEPA), which approximate this continuous objective via Monte Carlo sampling along random 1D directions. This stochasticity injects projection variance into the training gradients, destabilizing optimization, and hindering convergence. In this work, we first show that analytically integrating out these random projections natively yields a deterministic Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), bypassing the variance of sliced methods. Motivated by this equivalence, we formulate full-dimensional objectives for MMD, Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD), and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence directly on the sphere to enforce a uniform distribution. To prevent spatial bias, we equip these tests with rotationally invariant kernels constructed via spectral theory, systematically evaluating two canonical families: smooth exponential decay (Heat) and strict frequency cutoff (Bandlimited) filters. Empirically, removing projection-induced noise results in more stable optimization, faster convergence, and consistent improvements over stochastic sliced regularizers on ImageNet and Galaxy10. Furthermore, we reveal that the choice of the statistical test shapes the geometry of the learned latent space: MMD and KSD favor locally clustered organization suitable for object-centric domains, whereas the continuous KDE-based KL divergence promotes fine-grained instance separation, yielding the strongest results on unclustered procedural texture retrieval.

While sequential residual fitting is the bedrock of standard boosting frameworks, it inherently breeds learner redundancy by repeatedly revisiting correlated error components. To address this bottleneck, we propose a shift from residual fitting to \textit{residual orthogonalization} and introduce SCBoost. Our framework tackles redundancy through two complementary mechanisms: Spectral Residual Projection (SRP) and Covariance-Regularized Weighting (CRW). During training, SRP projects each residual target onto the orthogonal complement of the historical prediction subspace, forcing successive learners to capture only novel empirical innovations. During aggregation, CRW optimizes ensemble weights on a validation set with an explicit covariance penalty to mitigate remaining correlations. Theoretically, we provide a finite-sample geometric characterization proving that SRP yields an exact additive residual-energy decomposition. Furthermore, under an isotropic-noise assumption, we rigorously establish the conditions under which this projection improves the effective Signal-to-Noise Ratio. Extensive experiments across ten benchmark datasets demonstrate that SCBoost delivers strong out-of-the-box performance, particularly in accuracy and F1 score. This work reinterprets boosting through a geometric lens, suggesting that explicit redundancy control is a principled and necessary step toward more efficient ensemble architectures.

Information-Geometric Optimization (IGO) provides a unified framework for black-box optimization by interpreting the adaptation of a search distribution as a natural gradient update. Despite its conceptual importance, the convergence theory of IGO remains limited: most existing results concern continuous-time idealizations such as the IGO flow, rather than discrete-time updates with non-infinitesimal learning rates. In this paper, we study discrete-time IGO in continuous spaces, formulated as natural gradient updates in the expectation-parameter coordinates of an exponential family. In particular, we analyze IGO over the multivariate Gaussian family on strongly convex quadratic objective functions. Our analysis covers a setting that simultaneously incorporates full covariance adaptation, a fixed positive learning rate, and quantile-based weights. In this setting, we prove that the covariance matrix converges to the zero matrix. We further show that the mean vector converges to the global optimum, provided that the condition number of the appropriately scaled covariance matrix is bounded at sufficiently frequent iterations. These results advance the convergence theory of IGO and help bridge the gap between the mathematical theory of IGO and practical covariance-adaptive search methods such as CMA-ES.

Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series should control a single event while adapting to cross-coordinate dependence. We study filtered conformal ellipsoids: a frozen state-space filter emits a one-step predictive mean and covariance, and split-conformal calibration is applied to the resulting Mahalanobis scores. The filter is used to choose the ellipsoid shape; conformal calibration chooses the scalar radius, so the construction benefits from a learned predictive covariance without relying on Gaussian tail probabilities for coverage. The main difficulty is that filtered scores are dependent and learned recurrent filters need not contract in their raw hidden state; we therefore analyse contraction in an observable predictive-law quotient that identifies hidden states producing the same future sequence of emitted Gaussian laws. Under a stable Bayes Gaussian-projection filter, covariance bounds, and a finite-horizon observability Fisher condition, small excess Gaussian negative log-likelihood implies contraction of the learned emitted laws. Combined with a threshold-autocovariance envelope this yields a Chebyshev-type approximate coverage bound for filtered split-conformal prediction under dependence; a sharper Bernstein-type bound requires an additional geometric-mixing concentration assumption. Under Gaussian oracle realisability we also obtain a near-oracle log-volume comparison within the class of conditionally valid Gaussian ellipsoid rules. We instantiate the framework with a GCN-GRU filter with diagonal-plus-low-rank covariance. On moderate-size graph-native traffic benchmarks (METRLA-$20$ and PEMSBAY-$50$), the learned filter gives sharper at-target ellipsoids than static-covariance and non-filter baselines; at full-graph scale and on non-graph-native datasets, factor and copula baselines can be stronger.

This study systematically compares Turbo-Quant and SpectralQuant KV-cache compression, evaluating non-dominated schemes, including WHT rotation with Beta Lloyd-Max and QJL, through a statistical validation methodology that separates systematic codec differences from implementation variance. Key findings reveal that while eigenbasis-based methods fail on heavy-tailed data due to covariance instability, they excel in structured regimes, with the effective semantic dimension ($d_{eff}$) adapting to calibration budgets rather than true data rank. (this is an abstract of the abstract thank you )

CMA-ES is, per run, a local optimizer; multimodal search relies on restart strategies such as IPOP and BIPOP, which draw every restart uniformly and reuse no information from previous evaluations. Multi-Start Clustering CMA-ES (MSC-CMA-ES) makes restarts structure-aware: in alternating cycles, a Sobol pre-sample is partitioned into approximate basins of attraction by nearest-better clustering, restarts are seeded basin by basin with locally scaled step sizes and population sizes, redundant basin visits are detected and excluded, and the remaining budget is spent on an unbounded local refinement of the best-so-far solution. We evaluate the method on four CEC suites (CEC2014, CEC2017, CEC2020, CEC2022) at their official budgets, across ten (suite, dimension) cells with dimensions 5-30, 51 runs per function, against BIPOP-CMA-ES and five differential-evolution algorithms (ARRDE, jSO, j2020, NL-SHADE-RSP, LSRTDE). Read per function class, MSC-CMA-ES leads on one class, is mixed on a second, and trails on the third. On composition functions, MSC-CMA-ES attains the best value on all four aggregate measures, with 2.7x the fixed-budget target coverage of BIPOP-CMA-ES - the highest composition coverage of any algorithm evaluated. On basic functions, it achieves the best (lowest) median error but exhibits a lower deep-target coverage - the measured price of spending budget on landscape discovery. On hybrid functions both CMA variants trail the leading DE algorithms; the deficit belongs to the CMA family, not to the restart mechanism. All results and scripts are publicly available.

Offline models for autonomous robots often fail under time-varying dynamics outside their training distribution. Koopman operator theory offers a linear representation of nonlinear dynamics via lifting, but its transition to real-time recursive estimation may suffer numerical vulnerabilities: covariance windup under low excitation when using exponential forgetting, and vanishing gain without forgetting. This paper introduces a Covariance-Regulated Recursive Koopman Learning (CR-RKL) framework with two complementary strategies--error dead-zone gating and constant-trace normalization--each independently capable of preventing covariance explosion and parameter freezing, with the latter additionally preserving the geometric structure of uncertainty. Validated on a non-holonomic differential-drive robot with wheel slip and Stribeck friction and on a 26-gram butterfly-inspired flapping-wing micro aerial vehicle, CR-RKL achieves numerically stable and accurate online modeling, and when embedded in model predictive control, it maintains reliable tracking performance under uncertain, time-varying dynamics.

Few-shot label acquisition lacks a label-free signal for when additional labels cease to improve accuracy: existing stopping criteria either require a held-out validation set (violating the few-shot premise) or rely on theoretically ungrounded heuristics, so we introduce the spectral saturation index $S(K)=\mathrm{erank}(\hatΣ_W^{(K)})/K$, the exponential spectral entropy of the pooled within-class covariance normalized by per-class support size $K$, which measures the exploration rate per label and falls below a fixed threshold $τ=0.02$ once the explored spectral subspace saturates and marginal accuracy gains vanish; across 49 real tasks (binary, 5-way, 10-way) and three frozen backbones (PCA-50, CLIP ViT-B/32, DINOv2 ViT-S/14), $S(K)$ correlates strongly with the marginal gain on doubling the support set ($ρ_{\text{pool}}=0.6366$, $p=2.9\times10^{-57}$, cluster-bootstrap 95% CI $[0.551,0.720]$), a fixed $τ=0.02$ classifies stop/continue decisions with cluster-bootstrap $\mathrm{AUC}=0.787$ (95% CI $[0.713,0.860]$) with high recall on meaningful gains ($ΔA>1\%$), and a partial correlation controlling for $\log K$ yields $ρ_{\text{partial}}=0.324$ ($p=1.65\times10^{-13}$), confirming $S(K)$ carries spectral information beyond shared $K$-dependence; theory predicts this from first principles, since the population effective rank sets the saturation scale $K_{\text{sat}}\approx\mathrm{erank}(Σ_W)/τ$, $τ=0.02$ sits at the boundary between the first and second descent (Nakkiran et al., 2021), and $O(1/K)$ bias in the sample effective rank explains the small-$K$ hump in $S(K)$; for unregularized linear probes ($C=\infty$), practitioners should halt when $S(K)<0.02$ (PCA-50, hard stop) or monitor $S(K)$ dropping from $\sim0.3\to0.05$ (foundation models, diminishing-returns signal), with computation costing $\sim1$ ms at $d=50$.

Covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) is a state-of-the-art black-box optimization algorithm. In general, CMA-ES uses a portfolio of multiple stopping criteria to automatically determine when to stop the search. This mechanism aims to avoid unnecessary consumption of the function evaluation budget during stagnation. Stopping criteria play an important role in CMA-ES, particularly when restart strategies are employed. However, the effectiveness of stopping criteria in CMA-ES remains poorly understood. To address this issue, this paper investigates how the 11 stopping criteria in CMA-ES behave on the noiseless BBOB function set. The performance of the stopping criteria is quantitatively evaluated based on the optimal stopping point in terms of the number of function evaluations in a single run of CMA-ES. Our results show that, although which stopping criterion is triggered first depends significantly on the sample size $λ$ and the dimension $n$, \texttt{tolflatfitness} and \texttt{tolfun} are frequently the first criteria to be triggered among the portfolio of 11 stopping criteria. We also demonstrate that \texttt{tolfunhist} and the portfolio achieve the highest stopping accuracy in most cases. In addition, our results show that the \texttt{tolfun} and \texttt{tolfunhist} criteria are frequently triggered before CMA-ES reaches complete stagnation.

When a neural time-series model reports that one variable modulates another's effect on a target, is the discovered interaction a property of the data or an artifact of model flexibility? We argue that this is fundamentally a question of identifiability, governed by the geometry of the observed input support rather than by the specific neural architecture. We study the problem in a multiplicative-gating extension of neural additive vector autoregression (GNAVAR), in which source contributions are modulated by other lagged variables. We show that representational capacity is not identifiability: dependent inputs induce leakage between edge-specific interaction terms, and low-dimensional support permits distinct interaction decompositions that agree on the observed data while differing elsewhere. We then prove a population identifiability theorem for normalized minimal GNAVAR decompositions under explicit support conditions, including settings with shared modulators. The theory yields a simple practitioner-facing diagnostic: the effective rank of the joint lag-block covariance predicts, before fitting, whether interaction recovery is feasible for a given candidate set. When the candidate set is unknown, a two-seed stability check provides a practical operational test. The same support condition organizes empirical outcomes into the three states predicted by the theory. Our results show that interaction recoverability depends on support geometry, that effective rank provides a practical pre-fit diagnostic, and that instability across independent fits is a characteristic signature of non-identifiable interaction discovery. The identifiability phenomenon, the support condition, and the instability signature are model-agnostic; GNAVAR is the vehicle that makes them provable.

Adaptive beamforming is a cornerstone of array signal processing, yet its performance often collapses in the face of complex, rapidly changing interference. When interferers appear or move unpredictably, conventional estimators encounter a fundamental memory trade-off: short windows enable rapid tracking but suffer from high estimation variance, while long windows provide stable rejection but fail to adapt to shifts. This challenge is resolved by introducing the Universal Switching Beamformer (USB), which integrates competitive sequential prediction into the beamforming architecture. By employing a linear transition diagram, the USB implicitly maintains an exponentially large family of candidate covariance histories and dynamically re-weights them based on their cumulative output power. This mechanism allows the beamformer to automatically vary its effective memory length without explicit change detection or heuristic parameter tuning. A theoretical upper bound is proven on the regret relative to an omniscient oracle that selects the best piecewise-stationary covariance model in hindsight. Extensive simulations and experiments on the SwellEx-96 dataset demonstrate that the USB achieves the agility of short-window estimators and the precision of long-term integration, providing a principled solution for tracking highly non-stationary scenes.

We recast classical shrinkage of high-dimensional covariance estimators as empirical risk minimization over a parametric stochastic interpolant between a source and a target distribution. This formalism recovers known shrinkage estimators as special cases and reveals three distinct mechanisms for reducing statistical risk: (i) Scheduling: the interpolant schedule determines the class of admissible covariances, and hence the achievable risk. (ii) Flow maps and couplings: whereas naive constructions amount to assuming independence between the distributions, specific coupling structures (e.g., solutions of optimal transport problems) can lower the empirical risk. Moreover, non-linear flow maps realizing such couplings free the interpolant covariance from the eigenbasis of the empirical estimate, enabling eigenvector regularization. (iii) Early stopping: estimators defined by integrating a regressed vector field afford an additional bias-variance trade-off through approximation of the true interpolant distribution. We then propose a neural estimator of the interpolant, together with an upper bound on its quadratic risk in terms of the interpolant approximation error, and validate both on synthetic experiments. Finally, we apply the estimator to real neuroimaging data, demonstrating the additional regularization power this approach offers in practice.

Estimating local mean curvature at each point of a high-dimensional dataset is a key ingredient of geometry-aware machine learning algorithms, such as the Mean Curvature Boundary Points (MCBP) method. The naive implementation of this computation, based on a local shape operator approximated from k-nearest neighbor patches, involves an explicit construction of a matrix $H$ whose trace form yields an $O(m^4)$ cost per point, rendering the approach intractable for datasets with more than a few dozen features. This paper introduces two complementary contributions that together reduce this cost by several orders of magnitude. The first contribution is an exact algebraic identity. This identity, derived from the orthogonality of the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix and the cyclicity of the trace operator, eliminates $H$ entirely and reduces the per-point cost to $O(m^2)$ after the eigendecomposition. The second contribution addresses the remaining $O(m^3)$ bottleneck of the full eigendecomposition. Since the local covariance matrix has rank at most $k-1 \ll m$, we replace it with a truncated SVD of the $k \times m$ centered data matrix, an $O(k^2 m)$ operation, and derive an analytical approximation for the contribution of the null-space eigenvectors based on the expected value of their outer product under the Haar measure. The resulting estimator has total cost $O(k^2 m + k m p^2)$, where $p = k-1$. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm speedups of 50 to 300 times relative to the original implementation, with negligible loss when the fast estimator is used to replace the original version. By providing a scalable and data-driven estimate of local curvature, the proposed method establishes curvature as a practical geometric feature for a broad range of machine learning tasks, from classical to modern deep learning pipelines.

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most widely used unsupervised dimension reduction techniques. We study PCA for data from multiple related domains. Since principal components generally differ across domains, one way to obtain a shared low-rank embedding is to perform PCA on the pooled data. However, this approach can focus on spurious directions that exhibit high variation in only a few domains. To find a robust embedding that still explains most variance in unseen but similar domains, we propose instead to focus on shared directions of variation. To this end, we introduce Anchor PCA which trades off overall explained variance with agreement between the shared and domain-specific low-rank embeddings. Anchor PCA amounts to PCA on a modified target matrix and thus can be solved efficiently. Moreover, we show that Anchor PCA recovers a maximal invariant subspace and admits a minimax reconstruction interpretation under bounded domain-specific covariance inflations. On simulated and real-world gas sensor data with temporal drift, we demonstrate, respectively, that Anchor PCA recovers the maximally invariant subspace and yields embeddings that explain more variance on unseen domains than the pooling baseline and a worst-case alternative. Taken together, these findings establish Anchor PCA as a promising approach to robust unsupervised dimension reduction from multi-domain data.

Uncertainty quantification in neural networks prediction is a main issue for usual applications. Our approach seeks at reducing computation costs by directly evaluating uncertainty using PDE's information on the asymptotic variance, rather than the deep ensemble method which may be seen as a Monte Carlo estimation of the prediction, requiring the training of multiple networks. We thus study the law of the limiting process describing the random fluctuations around the mean-field limit of wide two-layer neural networks trained by stochastic gradient descent in a weak-noise regime. Building on a recent trajectorial central limit theorem, in which this limit is characterized as the weak solution of a linear stochastic evolution equation, we identify its law explicitly. More precisely, we show that it is a centered Gaussian process in the dual of a weighted Sobolev space, and we derive a closed covariance representation for the finite-dimensional distributions obtained by testing it against smooth functions. This covariance is expressed through the solution of a backward transport equation with a nonlocal source term, whose coefficients are driven by the mean-field trajectory. As a consequence, by testing against the activation function at a fixed input, we obtain an expression for the limiting variance of the corresponding network-output fluctuations. We illustrate this result numerically on a one-dimensional regression example.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) yields powerful, context-rich representations for speech emotion recognition (SER), yet aggregating these representations into holistic descriptors remains a bottleneck. Conventional first-order aggregation implicitly assumes feature independence, which overlooks the latent Riemannian geometry and discards higher-order relationships essential to the representational power of the backbone. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel Second-Order Correlation (SOC) layer. Instead of treating features in isolation, SOC models feature correlations as covariance descriptors to capture synergistic co-occurrence patterns, which serve as discriminative signatures for robust emotion recognition. By mapping these descriptors from the Riemannian manifold to a Euclidean tangent space through Log-Euclidean mapping (LEM), the proposed method preserves geometric integrity while enabling direct linear discriminative learning. Extensive experiments on the ESD and RAVDESS datasets demonstrate that SOC recovers discriminative information lost in first-order pooling and effectively aggregates high-dimensional SSL features.

Safe robot control requires maximizing return while satisfying safety constraints. In off-policy safe reinforcement learning, reward and safety Q-values are commonly learned by separate critic ensembles, with uncertainty handled independently for each objective. This objective-wise treatment neglects inter-objective correlation and can lead to overly conservative value estimates, thereby reducing sample efficiency. To address this issue, we propose Cholesky-Ordered Projection Q-learning (COP-Q), a safety-first method that incorporates inter-objective covariance into vector-valued Q-value estimation. COP-Q constructs a generalized confidence bound in the joint Q-value space and uses Cholesky factorization to encode objective priority in a sequential form. This preserves conservatism on safety while adaptively reducing excessive conservatism on the reward objective. The resulting estimate is used in both temporal-difference target computation and actor optimization. COP-Q incurs minimal computational overhead and is readily compatible with most existing deep Q-learning frameworks. Experiments on robot locomotion in Brax and safe navigation in Safety-Gymnasium, covering both hard- and soft-safety settings, demonstrate that COP-Q achieves strong safety performance together with competitive or improved sample efficiency relative to representative baselines.

Selecting a clustering algorithm and its hyperparameters without labels is a common difficulty in engineering machine learning pipelines that work with unsupervised analysis of sensor, image, or process data. Clustering validation indices (CVIs) provide internal scores for ranking candidate clusterings, but most popular CVIs are built from Euclidean compactness and separation terms and so tend to favour compact, convex partitions. Their performance is known to degrade on non convex, irregular, or variable density data, where kernel transformations or alternative distance measures are typically used at the cost of additional tuning and computation. This paper introduces the Central Description Length (CDL) clustering validation index. CDL uses the observed within cluster compactness, the estimated cluster centers, and the estimated cluster covariances to compute a probabilistic upper bound on the description length associated with the unobservable true cluster centers. The bound condenses intra cluster compactness and centroid displacement into a single computable quantity and is evaluated on the partition produced by any clustering algorithm. The implementation uses only observable quantities (the data, the partition, the estimated centers, and the estimated covariances) and does not use ground truth labels. On synthetic benchmarks with non convex and arbitrary shape clusters, CDL-CVI selected the reference number of clusters more often and reached higher Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) values than the conventional CVIs we tested, without an additional kernel preprocessing stage. On image benchmarks (MNIST, CIFAR-10, STL-10) clustered from frozen unsupervised embeddings, CDL-CVI returned cluster numbers close to the reference class counts across K-means, DBSCAN, and spectral clustering in the reported trials.

Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) achieves low heart-rate error on uncompressed benchmarks yet is deployed over compressed video channels in telehealth, neonatal ICU, and driver fatigue applications. No prior work identifies the physical quantity determining when spatial decomposition outperforms global-projection methods under codec compression. We propose Spatial Artifact Coherence (SAC), defined as the ratio of off-diagonal to diagonal energy in the 4x4 inter-patch Green-channel covariance matrix (bandpass 0.75-2.5 Hz), and the PatchPCA algorithm family (four codec-aware rPPG algorithms). We evaluate 280 subjects across three public datasets, 11 codec degradation variants (MPEG-4, H.265, H.264, JPEG, chroma subsampling), and 13 algorithms via Wilcoxon tests (BH-FDR, q < 0.05, 904 tests). SAC explains 93.8% of between-variant variance in PCA advantage (r = +0.969), with zero overlap between codec families: non-MPEG-4 variants cluster at SAC 0.10-0.18 with 84-90% PCA win rates, while MPEG-4 variants cluster at SAC 0.48-0.59 with 61% win rate and a 5.8x reduction in mean improvement. Within subjects, 78% confirm the expected pattern (p < 10^-22, dz = 0.73). Within-variant subject-level SAC correlation is r = +0.099, confirming SAC classifies codec families rather than predicting individual outcomes. MPEG-4's effect is structural (macroblock DCT geometry, not noise amplitude), governed by source codec state, not resolution. P-Hybrid is identified as the most deployment-robust algorithm. Two necessary operating conditions for PatchPCA advantage are established: SAC < 0.30 and low-to-moderate motion, directly ruling out raw-to-MPEG-4 transcoding pipelines. SAC provides a physically grounded metric for codec-aware rPPG algorithm selection in clinical remote monitoring systems.

Kalman filter (KF)-based multi-object tracking (MOT) remains a strong baseline for autonomous driving due to its strong performance, computational efficiency and interpretability. In most practical systems, the process noise and measurement noise covariances are defined globally and shared across object classes, presuming identical uncertainty characteristics across heterogeneous traffic participants. This work revisits this assumption and proposes CANMOT, a class-aware and object-aligned noise modeling framework for KF-based 3D MOT. Class-specific diagonal process and measurement covariance matrices are introduced and optionally expressed in the object coordinate frame to preserve longitudinal-lateral anisotropy. Systematic experiments on the nuScenes benchmark show that class-aware and object-aligned noise modeling improves tracking performance and substantially reduces identity switches compared to state-of-the-art (SotA). In addition, the consistency of the estimated uncertainty is analyzed using the Average Normalized Estimation Error Squared (ANEES) and $χ^2$-based violation tests. The results reveal severe overconfidence in standard KF-based MOT baselines. While the proposed formulation improves calibration without modifying the underlying filtering framework, it still exhibits substantial inconsistency, highlighting the need for further research in this area. Code is available at https://github.com/rst-tu-dortmund/learned-3d-nms.

Kalman filtering performance is highly sensitive to model mismatch and noise covariance tuning. Learning-based approaches address these limitations but typically rely on supervised training with large datasets and do not produce consistent uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised Hybrid Adaptive Kalman Filter that learns structured corrections to system dynamics and process noise covariance from measurements alone while preserving the probabilistic structure of the filter. This allows the innovation likelihood to be computed and subsequently used for model classification via generalized Bayesian inference. Experimental results on real-world and simulated datasets demonstrate improved estimation accuracy and statistical consistency as well as robust classification performance across both low-data and large-data scenarios.

Self-supervised learning methods prevent embedding collapse via modeling heuristics or explicit regularization of the embedding space. Among the latter, VICReg decomposes regularization into variance and covariance objectives, offering flexibility and interpretability. However, covariance captures only second-order statistics -- encouraging decorrelation but failing to enforce the full distributional shape needed for stable training. Sketching-based methods such as SIGReg address this by aligning embeddings to an isotropic Gaussian, but lack flexibility and suffer from vanishing gradients under collapse. We propose Variance-Invariance-Sketching Regularization (VISReg), which replaces covariance with a Sliced-Wasserstein-based sketching objective that enforces full distributional shape, while retaining a variance term for scale control. By decoupling scale and shape, VISReg combines VICReg's flexibility with the distributional rigor of sketching methods, providing robust gradients even under collapse. We show that VISReg scales linearly, outperforms existing regularization on low-quality datasets, and is resilient to long-tailed and low-rank regimes. Pre-trained on ImageNet-1K, VISReg achieves state-of-the-art performance on out-of-distribution datasets. Pre-trained on ImageNet-22K, it matches DINOv2's OOD performance despite the latter using 10x more data (LVD-142M). Project and code: https://haiyuwu.github.io/visreg.

Latent state-space models are widely used to study partially observed dynamical systems, yet most formulations assume that process variability is independent of latent-state position. In many biological, behavioral, and physiological systems, however, variability may depend systematically on the underlying dynamical state, producing structured stochasticity that is not captured by constant-variance models. We introduce a state-coupled stochastic volatility framework in which latent process variance depends on displacement from a latent equilibrium. To estimate this relationship under partial observation, we develop a particle expectation-maximization procedure combining bootstrap particle filtering and backward trajectory smoothing. The model includes a coupling parameter, $γ$, that quantifies the strength of association between latent-state position and process variability. A large-scale simulation benchmark evaluated recovery and detection performance across varying coupling strengths, observation noise levels, trajectory lengths, and persistence regimes. The proposed framework consistently reduced recovery bias relative to an observed-state heteroskedastic proxy, with the largest improvements occurring under strong coupling. Recovery performance improved with increasing latent persistence, while detection performance remained competitive across a broad range of conditions and became increasingly advantageous as observation noise increased. Taken together, the results demonstrate that state-coupled volatility can be identified and estimated under partial observation when latent-state structure is explicitly modeled. The framework provides a practical methodological foundation for studying state-dependent variability and evaluating whether structured stochasticity contributes information about system dynamics beyond that contained in mean-state trajectories alone.

Autoregressive decoding in Transformer-based language models relies on the KV cache, whose memory footprint grows linearly with sequence length and becomes the primary bottleneck for long-context inference. KV cache eviction addresses this by retaining a fixed-size subset of key-value pairs and discarding the rest. We identify that a primary source of output degradation is not the residual attention mass on evicted tokens, which existing methods already minimize, but a directional mismatch between the retained and evicted token sets. Specifically, the evicted tokens in practice are often near-orthogonal to the retained ones. Thus, even a small evicted mass could have an oversized impact on the resulting direction distribution and amplify into substantial output error. This reveals a fundamental limit in existing strategies. To address this, we propose MomentKV, which maintains compact, small-size moment statistics over the evicted token set, including a count, key mean, value mean, and value-key covariance. During eviction, the moment statistics is leveraged to identify tokens already well aligned with and captured by the accumulated summary, keeping the evicted set geometrically regular. During inference, they yield a closed-form first-order approximation of the evicted attention output, forming a mutually reinforcing loop between selective eviction and accurate correction. On LongBench and RULER with LLaMA-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen3-4B-Instruct, MomentKV outperforms all baselines at every cache budget, with the largest gains under aggressive compression.

In recent years, graph signal processing has emerged as a powerful framework at the intersection of signal processing and graph theory, providing tools for the analysis of signals defined on nodes while accounting for their relationships represented by edges. These tools have been successfully applied to various settings, including statistical hypothesis testing. In particular, non-parametric approaches based on surrogate generation have been proposed for signals on undirected graphs. However, they are yet to be extended to directed graphs. In this work, we first revisit the notion of stationary graph signals on directed graphs. Specifically, and through the eigendecomposition of the graph shift operator, we define directed graph wide-sense stationary signals. Then, we propose a new framework to generate surrogate graph signals that preserve covariance structure under stationarity assumptions. Null distributions of the test metric can then be constructed from these surrogates and serve as a reference for the empirical data. Finally, we provide guiding examples and an application on real data, in which we compare the performance of our framework with existing techniques for undirected graphs or based on naive permutation, demonstrating feasibility and superiority of the proposed approach.

Shampoo-style optimizers approximate gradient covariance matrices using Kronecker-factored structures. Recent work~\cite{lin2026understanding} showed that such approximations can be viewed as projections under Bregman matrix divergences, leading to different Kronecker-factored preconditioners. However, it remains unclear what role the choice of divergence plays when the covariance is not exactly Kronecker-factored. We study this question through the spectrum of the covariance matrix. We show that Frobenius, von Neumann, and LogDet divergences distribute the unavoidable Kronecker approximation error differently across the covariance spectrum. We further show that their Kronecker factors are governed by divergence-weighted residuals rather than the raw approximation error, explaining how these spectral preferences are realized in the resulting preconditioners. Empirically, we observe that the top covariance eigenspace is substantially better aligned with the Hessian matrix, while the tail spectrum is much noisier and unreliable. Motivated by these findings, we propose a subspace-aware Kronecker optimizer that applies eigenvalue-based preconditioning in the top subspace and uses an adaptive isotropic acceleration constant in the bottom subspace.

Predicting a complete spatially correlated field from sparse observations is a fundamental challenge in spatial statistics and environmental modelling. Classical interpolation methods such as Kriging rely on Gaussian process assumptions and variography, which can limit their effectiveness in non-stationary settings and require substantial domain expertise. In this work, we leverage an architecture based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for spatial interpolation that is trained and applied on a single partially observed field, without access to external data or prior fields. The model is supervised directly on the observed locations and learns to predict values at unobserved points on the user defined grid. Unlike Kriging, our method does not require explicit covariance modelling or variogram estimation, and it can flexibly capture local spatial patterns in a data-driven manner. This work demonstrates the potential of CNNs for single-instance spatial interpolation under sparse supervision, offering a practical alternative to classical geostatistical methods, and extending the use of CNNs to a new problem domain.

We connect stochastic resetting from non-equilibrium statistical physics with ridge regularization in statistical learning. For linear gradient flow, resetting to the origin at rate $r$ produces stationary mean $(X^\top X+rI)^{-1}X^\top y$, exactly the ridge estimator with penalty $λ=r$. This uses the known Laplace-transform relationship between ridge regression and exponential-time averaging of gradient flow, with the exponential time now interpreted as the stationary age associated with Poisson resetting. We then extend this identity to general renewal reset laws: the exponential reset time distribution is the unique renewal law whose stationary mean reproduces scalar ridge in every eigendirection as an exact filter identity for every positive curvature, while non-exponential renewal laws generate alternative spectral filters. At the fluctuation level, we study a separate additive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck extension with constant diffusion, interpreted as a stylized SGD approximation. In this setting, the equality holds only at the level of the mean, since the reset process has a nonzero stationary covariance from accumulated OU noise and reset-timing variance, whereas deterministic ridge is a fixed estimator with the same center. Stylized experiments compare the deterministic renewal-induced filters directly and illustrate when filters induced by non-exponential reset-time laws can differ predictively from ridge. The results for the stationary mean and the induced spectral filters are established for continuous-time gradient flow with isotropic resetting on quadratic objectives; the covariance and risk formulas additionally assume additive noise with state-independent covariance.

We consider $L^2$-regularized linear (ridge) regression over a finite data sample $X$ with bounded covariance and linear prediction targets $y$ with additive isotropic noise of finite variance. We present an iterative procedure to compute the optimal regularization strength numerically from the generative parameters in the fixed-$X$ setting and prove its convergence at limited noise levels. Our experimental evaluation over synthetic data shows that the proposed procedure combined with sample-based parameter estimates attains near-optimal random-$X$ generalization across a wide range of sample sizes, aspect ratios, and noise levels, at an added computational cost equivalent to one preliminary ridge regression in the underparameterized regime and two in the overparameterized case.

IMU preintegration is widely used in factor-graph-based visual--inertial, lidar--inertial, and radar--inertial state estimation, yet it is often treated as a specialized implementation separate from conventional IMU propagation. This note shows that IMU preintegration and propagation are equivalent realizations of the same underlying computation. We present a convention-agnostic view in which the preintegrated measurement, bias Jacobians, and covariance can be obtained by wrapping an existing IMU propagation routine, while a preintegration module can conversely recover state-transition matrices and propagated covariances. This perspective simplifies the reuse of existing propagation code, supports translation across different error-state definitions, and provides practical consistency checks for preintegration implementations. Experiments with random IMU sequences demonstrate close agreement between an RK4-based propagation implementation and GTSAM's tangent and manifold preintegration modules in the recovered Jacobians, covariances, and transition matrices.

Industrial visual anomaly detection is usually one-class: normal images are abundant, while defects are rare, heterogeneous, and often unavailable during system design. PatchCore-style retrieval suits this setting because it scores test images from a memory bank of normal patch features, but the standard Euclidean geometry ignores feature correlations and its offline construction materialises the full patch pool before subsampling. We introduce Mahalanobis PatchCore, a covariance-aware, streaming-compatible extension of PatchCore. Its artificial intelligence contribution is a retrieval detector that estimates a regularised covariance model in reduced feature space and whitens embeddings, so Euclidean nearest-neighbour search after transformation implements Mahalanobis retrieval. A bounded-memory, re-iterable training pipeline builds the memory bank without storing all normal patches at once, using incremental dimensionality reduction, online covariance estimation, and streaming aggregation. The engineering application is automated industrial inspection, where visual anomaly detection must remain accurate under practical memory limits. We evaluate the method on a public 15-category industrial anomaly-detection benchmark and three industrial datasets covering blow-fill-seal strip-ampoule meniscus inspection, amber-glass-ampoule bottom inspection, and lyophilised-cake vial inspection. Mahalanobis PatchCore preserves most offline PatchCore image-level performance on the public benchmark while reducing peak memory from 5.41 to 2.78 GB, and improves the selected industrial mean image area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.981 to 0.986.

Deep neural network training often exhibits highly anisotropic loss geometry, where a few sharp dominant Hessian directions coexist with a large flatter bulk. Gradients tend to align disproportionately with these dominant directions, although stable progress often requires movement through flatter bulk directions. Estimating the dominant subspace is therefore useful but costly with direct Hessian-based methods. We show that standard Local SGD exposes this geometry through worker disagreement. We theoretically show that the worker-average gap covariance is shaped by stochastic-gradient noise and Hessian curvature, causing workers to disagree along sharp, curvature-sensitive directions. Thus, worker-average gaps provide a cheap Hessian-free estimator of the dominant subspace. Experiments on MLPs, CNNs, and Transformers show that subspaces formed by worker-average gaps capture a substantial fraction of the gradient component lying in the dominant Hessian eigenspace.

This short note presents a dimension-independent subgaussian concentration bound for Gaussian vectors under coordinate-wise nonlinear mappings. Discovered by Gemini 3.5 Flash, this result applies to any bounded function under a well-conditioned covariance. We apply this tool to answer a question of Simone Bombari on sign-quantized linear maps $Y = \text{sgn}(Wx)$.

We develop semiparametrically efficient inference for kernel measures of noise heterogeneity in additive noise models. In many applications, the regression function is estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Downstream procedures based on the resulting residuals can then inherit first-stage bias: regression error may induce spurious dependence between covariates and residuals, invalidating the assumptions needed for standard analysis. We construct a novel Hilbert-valued one-step estimator of the kernel covariance operator between covariates and residuals. Our estimator yields bootstrap-calibrated tests for residual independence and goodness of fit in additive noise models, while also providing asymptotically efficient confidence intervals for the kernel dependence measure under noise heterogeneity. The framework extends to settings with additional covariates, enabling inference on distributional heterogeneity of residual noise across treatment groups. Simulations show improved calibration and power relative to naive plug-in residual methods.

In probabilstic supervised learning of an input-output relationship - as a sample function of a Gaussian Process (GP) - priors are typically specified for the hyperparameters of the kernel that parametrises the covariance function of the GP, where the induced covariance matrix of the (resulting multivariate Normal) likelihood, governs the learning and prediction. When the sought function is highly multivariate, multiple lengthscale parameters must be learnt simultaneously, making inference difficult. We develop a ``self-assembled'' Wishart prior for the covariance matrix, while undertaking Bayesian inference on the kernel hyperparameters using MCMC. The construction uses a look-back window over recent MCMC iterations to define a time-step dependent scale matrix, thereby introducing adaptiveness to the chain. Results suggest that direct prior specification on the covariance matrix can be useful for diagnosing weakly informative inputs within the GP-based learning paradigm. We support our prior development with two distinct empirical illustrations - one on synthetic data, and another on a real-world dataset.

Schrödinger bridges for time series (SBTS) generate synthetic paths by projecting, in relative entropy, a Brownian reference onto the path laws that match the joint distribution of the data on the observation grid. The Brownian reference, however, fixes the quadratic variation of the generated paths, which is restrictive when stochastic volatility, correlated noise, or rank-deficient covariance structures must be reproduced. We introduce "Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series" (TR-SBTS), which keeps the entropy-projection backbone of SBTS but replaces the Brownian reference by a triangular, volatility-informed, intervalwise frozen reference on a state augmented with latent covariance descriptors. The construction remains a single entropy projection on the augmented state: the minimiser is the $h$-transform of the reference, and on each frozen interval the optimal drift has the logarithmic-gradient form $b^\star(t,x)=A\,\nabla\log H(t,x)$, intrinsic to the active covariance directions when the frozen covariance $A$ is degenerate. We prove stability of the frozen approximation and consistency of the associated regularised kernel estimators, describe a reference-aware Nadaraya--Watson implementation of the conditional next-increment law, and evaluate the construction on numerical experiments.

State estimation is a fundamental problem in control and signal processing, for which the Kalman Filter provides an optimal solution under linear dynamics, Gaussian noise, and known noise covariances. However, these assumptions often fail in realistic sensing settings such as Doppler radar and LiDAR. In these cases, the optimal estimator is inherently nonlinear, which leads to systematic performance degradation. This creates a performance gap that cannot be eliminated by tuning the noise covariance parameters (i.e., the process and measurement noise in the Kalman Filter) alone. To address this limitation, we propose Kalman Evolve, a framework for discovering improved filtering algorithms by jointly optimizing both noise parameters and the update structure. Our approach leverages large language models (LLMs) as a structured prior over program space, enabling the generation of interpretable, non-affine modifications to the classical Kalman filter while preserving its recursive form. We provide analytical results establishing the suboptimality of affine estimators under common nonlinear sensing models, motivating the need for structure-aware updates. Across a range of synthetic and real-world tracking benchmarks, including Doppler radar, LiDAR-based localization, and pedestrian tracking, the discovered algorithms consistently improve over strong baselines such as the Optimized Kalman Filter, achieving up to 12% reduction in RMSE. These results suggest that optimizing the structure of the Kalman filter, rather than only its parameters, provides a practical and interpretable way to improve state estimation.

4D radar is increasingly attractive for robotic mapping because it provides range, azimuth, elevation, and Doppler measurements while remaining robust in adverse visibility conditions. Although recent radar and radar--inertial odometry methods have achieved promising online state estimation performance, offline global map refinement for 4D radar remains underexplored. This paper presents RAMBA, a radar bundle-adjustment framework for globally consistent 4D radar mapping. Given initial poses and radar frames from a radar--inertial odometry front-end, RAMBA jointly refines radar frame states using covariance-weighted geometric residuals, IMU preintegration factors, and radar ego-velocity constraints. The geometric residuals extend pairwise GICP to a multi-frame optimization by forming voxel-based correspondences across selected frames and weighting each residual with point covariances. To improve robustness against drift and revisits, RAMBA enforces temporal consistency during correspondence formation while explicitly supporting loop-closure constraints. Experiments on the ColoRadar and SNAIL Radar datasets show that RAMBA improves map consistency and usually enhances trajectory accuracy over radar--inertial odometry and pose-graph optimization baselines.

In dynamic acoustic environments with time-varying interferers, effective beamforming requires identifying stationary regions over time. The Capon beamformer, a whitened matched filter constrained to maintain unity gain in the desired direction, theoretically relies on the instantaneous ensemble covariance matrix. Practical implementations rely on the batch Capon (or Sample Matrix Inversion), which estimates the sample covariance matrix (SCM) by averaging over a block of snapshots. This practical approach implicitly assumes that the data within the batch window is stationary and can be coherently combined. In non-stationary settings, a batch approach that averages over fixed or excessively long windows fails, as moving interferers smear the SCM and degrade the beamformer's nulling capabilities. To address this, this paper introduces a temporally segmented distortionless response beamformer. Inspired by the segmented least squares method, which fits piecewise polynomials to data while penalizing excessive segmentation to prevent overfitting, the framework extends practical Capon beamforming by incorporating data-driven temporal segmentation. This formulation minimizes output power while dynamically adapting the SCM estimation windows to local stationarity, offering a principled approach to tracking time-varying interferers.

Scaling laws provide compact descriptions of how prediction error varies with compute, model size, and data, but existing theory mainly treats single-sample SGD or full data reuse, leaving the role of mini-batching unclear. We study batch scaling laws for sketched linear regression under a power-law covariance spectrum and a source condition on the target parameter. We analyze one-pass batch SGD, multi-pass batch SGD with replacement, and multi-pass batch SGD without replacement. Our first result is a risk decomposition: all three procedures share the same irreducible and approximation terms, while their stochastic terms depend on the sampling protocol. One-pass batch SGD splits into bias and variance, whereas the two multi-pass methods split into GD bias, GD variance, and a fluctuation term around a common GD reference trajectory. We then prove source-condition scaling laws for one-pass and multi-pass mini-batch methods. For one-pass batch SGD, mini-batching preserves the approximation and optimization-bias exponents, while the variance scales as $O(\min(M,(T_{\mathrm{eff}}γ)^{1/a})/(B T_{\mathrm{eff}}))$. Thus the usual $1/B$ covariance reduction holds at fixed update count $T$, but in the one-pass regime $T=N/B$ it is partly offset by the shorter optimization horizon. For multi-pass batch SGD, with- and without-replacement sampling have identical approximation and GD bias/variance terms; they differ only in the fluctuation covariance prefactor, which is $1/B$ with replacement and $ρ_{N,B}=(N-B)/(B(N-1))$ without replacement. Hence without-replacement sampling is less noisy for $B>1$, and when $B=N$ the fluctuation vanishes, recovering deterministic gradient descent. These results place batch size on the same theoretical footing as compute, data, and model dimension in sketched linear regression.

We propose PACE-GGM, a data-adaptive differentially private method for covariance estimation that concentrates its privacy budget on the most informative entries of the empirical covariance matrix, rather than perturbing all entries. This applies in the natural setting where the modeler supplies separate bounds for each variable, so that individual entries can be measured with less noise than the full matrix. In each round, our method selects a poorly approximated entry, measures it using the Gaussian mechanism, and then reconstructs a full covariance matrix using a maximum-entropy reconstruction objective, leading to a Gaussian graphical model structure. Experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate consistent improvements in estimation error with respect to the Gaussian mechanism and other baselines, particularly in high-dimensional and low-to-moderate privacy regimes.