Observation

Recent theoretical progress has established conditions under which machine learning models can efficiently predict ground-state properties of gapped local Hamiltonians when trained on quantum-generated data. Previous experimental demonstrations in this paradigm, however, have largely been limited to small systems or highly structured states, due to the difficulty of preparing many-body ground states on quantum processors. In this work, we demonstrate learning from experimental quantum data generated from approximate ground states of the two-dimensional Heisenberg XXZ model with system sizes up to 115 qubits. We construct a dataset of single-site expectation values, two-point correlations, and 12-body loop correlations across the antiferromagnetic phase. We then train neural networks on this data and show that they can accurately predict spatially resolved observables for previously unseen Hamiltonian parameters, both within the training distribution and in an out-of-distribution regime approaching the phase boundary. Our results demonstrate the practical realization of learning from quantum data for an interacting two-dimensional many-body system at scale, motivating a path toward regimes where quantum processors could provide training data beyond the reach of classical approximation methods.

Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models predict chunks of future actions from the current observation, an assumption that fails under partial observability, where decisions depend on information no longer visible. Existing memory-augmented VLAs simultaneously introduce recurrence, retrieval, compression modules, auxiliary objectives, hierarchical memory, or task-specific architectural changes, so the contribution of recurrence itself remains entangled with surrounding machinery. We present a controlled isolation study of recurrence in a strong pretrained VLA backbone. Our formulation augments the transformer with a small set of learnable memory tokens carried across timesteps and updated through self-attention, trained end to end with truncated backpropagation through time, with no auxiliary losses and no architectural changes. We instantiate this as $μ$VLA, a family of OpenVLA-OFT variants parameterized by memory width m, TBPTT length K, and the memory update rule (cross-step gradients or a detached EMA), so that recurrence is the only varying factor. On MIKASA-Robo, $μ$VLA improves average success rate on five training tasks from 0.42 to 0.84 at the strongest setting and reaches 0.23 on held-out tasks with the same memory structure versus 0.07 for the memoryless baseline. On tasks requiring different memory structure, performance remains near baseline. On LIBERO, the strongest recurrent variant achieves 96.2% average success, indicating no regression under full observability. We interpret these results as a calibration of the capability envelope of minimal in-backbone recurrence, identifying the regime in which it is sufficient and the regime where additional memory structure is required. Demos and videos can be found in https://avanturist322.github.io/mu-vla/.

Current-status data arise when an event time is observed only through an indicator of whether it occurred before an examination time. This paper studies a nonparametric neural-network sieve maximum likelihood estimator of the conditional cumulative distribution function of the event time. Under Hölder smoothness assumptions, we establish an explicit convergence rate by combining approximation theory for rectified linear unit neural networks with empirical-process arguments. This result provides theoretical support for neural-network estimation and subsequent inference under current-status observation.

With the growing demand for realistic virtual humans, parametric body models have become a cornerstone of modern medicine, sports, and entertainment applications. However, most of these models are inherently limited: they only capture the 3D surface of the skin, offering no insight into the complex bio-mechanical structures that generate motion. As more applications expand towards biomechanics, the need for virtual human models that go beyond the skin has become increasingly evident. Traditional soft-tissue simulations, such as FEM, are accurate but non-scalable and too computationally expensive for most common applications. Alternatively, existing biomechanical tools can simulate muscular forces and activations, but do not model changes in external shape, restricting how activations correlate with actual observable anatomy. This motivates a novel inverse research problem: recovering muscle deformations directly from visible surface observations - i.e., from the skin, and thus the pose. In this work, we present SOMA (from Surface Observations to Muscle Anatomy), a person-specific model that infers spatio-temporal muscle behavior from surface signals obtained using RGB cameras, and SKIM, a subject-specific soft-tissue deformation dataset. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method that attempts to recover muscle deformations from multi-view RGB data. We show how our method provides anatomically grounded animations without the complexity of traditional simulations, leading to a scalable and cost-effective solution. Data and code are available.

Routine full-disk EUV imaging has been available only since the modern era, such as SOHO and SDO. To extend EUV coronal context into earlier periods, we leverage the multi-decade availability of full-disk \HeI{} observations, whose absorption is modulated by coronal irradiance and magnetic topology and is widely used as a proxy for open-field regions. We present a diffusion-based conditional image translation framework, Coronal Hole-aware Diffusion Model Translator (CH-aware DMT), to reconstruct synthetic SDO/AIA 193 Å EUV images from \HeI{} inputs. The model is trained on temporally co-aligned SOLIS \HeI{} and AIA 193 Å pairs spanning 2011--2015 using a month-based split, where January--October are used for training, November is used for validation, and December for testing. On the held-out test set, the reconstructions preserve dominant full-disk EUV morphology (CC=0.92) and recover CH-related low-intensity structure (CC=0.84). We further assess historical applicability by (1) comparing reconstructed AIA 193 Å morphology with SOHO/EIT 195 Å over 2005--2015; (2) comparing reconstructed AIA 193 Å images generated from KPVT \HeI{} inputs against Yohkoh/SXT soft X-ray observations; and (3) evaluating long-term reconstructed disk-integrated emission statistics against observational EUV series and independent solar activity proxies (sunspot number and F10.7 radio flux over 1974--2015). These results indicate that CH-aware DMT conditioned on \HeI{} can provide a physically plausible synthetic AIA 193 Å coronal proxy for historical studies, supporting multi-decade analyses of large-scale coronal evolution before the direct EUV imaging was available.

MOLOT (Malicious Operational Logic Observation Transformer) is a static malicious-code detection system designed for SAST setup where package metadata, maintainer history, and dynamic execution traces may be unavailable or unreliable. The system represents source code as behavior sequences derived from static call graphs, includes an explanation stage that ranks suspicious behavior activities and maps them back to source-code locations. The approach is evaluated on Python and JavaScript packages from PyPI and npm, compared with opensource detection tools, and validated under product constraints including runtime, memory use, and false-positive rates observed in a real moderation workflow. We also release Open Malicious-Code Bench, a public benchmark for reproducible evaluation of malicious-package detection methods. The results show that static behavior-sequence modeling can provide accurate, explainable, and deployable malicious-code detection for modern DevSecOps workflows.

Web agents operating over long horizons ingest raw DOM and accessibility trees -- routinely tens of thousands of tokens -- at every action step, causing progressive context degradation that erodes reasoning well before tasks complete. We argue that this coupling of observation frequency to action frequency is an architectural mistake. Drawing on the insight from Recursive Language Models that querying a document outperforms reading it wholesale, we propose Signal-Driven Observation (SDO): a dedicated sub-call reads the full DOM but returns only task-relevant elements and their selectors, and is re-invoked only when a lightweight signal detector fires -- triggered by URL transitions, newly visible interactive elements, action failures, or exogenous browser events. We outline the open problems SDO introduces and call on the community to treat observation compression as a core architectural decision in web agent design.

This letter proposes a novel distributed bearing-based pose estimator for time-varying multi-robot systems. The method uses angles computed from body-frame bearings to estimate the robots' positions in $\mathbb{R}^3$ without knowledge of their orientations. The orientations in $\mathrm{SO}(3)$ are recovered from the estimated positions, the bearings, and the bearing derivatives. The proposed observer only requires the (directed) sensing topology to be \textit{angle-rigid}, a weaker condition than the commonly used ones like bearing rigidity. Local uniform exponential stability of the proposed observer is established under the assumption of persistently exciting motions for a subset of robots. Simulations are presented and discussed to evaluate the scheme's effectiveness and practicality.

LLM-based agents resolve a user task through many turns of dependent inference and tool calls, producing a workload whose total cost is unknown when the task arrives. Existing multi-turn systems keep the turn as the scheduling unit and decide, turn by turn, whether to disaggregate prefill from decode. That decision rests on the turn's decode length, tool behavior, and KV growth, quantities that are not observable when the scheduler must act, forcing the system to predict them. We show this dependence on prediction is imposed by the scheduling unit, not the workload. Raising the scheduling unit from the turn to the conversation converts turn-level irregularity into a stable, two-phase structure: 1) a compute-bound turn-1 prefill followed by 2) a long, memory-bound tail. Thus, with the conversation as the scheduling unit, placement reduces to reading the first-turn input length and per-decoder KV occupancy, both directly observable. We instantiate this principle in ConServe, which routes the first-turn prefill to a high-throughput prefiller, transfers the KV cache exactly once, and pins the conversation to a single decoder for its entire tail, with no learned model of decode-side cost. Against a per-turn prediction baseline, ConServe reduces p95 time-to-first-effective-token (the latency of a conversation's first user-visible output) by 51.08% and improves energy efficiency by 7.51% while preserving last-turn TBT and SLOs; mapping the two phases onto heterogeneous GPU tiers adds a further 22.75% in energy efficiency.

The rapid growth of the satellite industry has driven a significant increase in geospatial data acquisition, highlighting a critical bottleneck: the severe disparity between the volume of collected sensor data and the limited downlink bandwidth available to ground stations. While On-Board Computing (OBC) has helped address this by pre-processing data in orbit, this article further advances the paradigm by introducing an in-sensor computing framework. We present an optimized end-to-end Earth Observation (EO) pipeline tailored for strict computational constraints by integrating TinyML techniques with the Sony IMX500 Intelligent Vision Sensor. Specifically, our approach shifts processing directly to the sensor level, offloading the computation from the primary embedded device, and effectively mitigating the downlink transmission of noisy or irrelevant data. We evaluated several efficient Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets), i.e., SqueezeNet, ShuffleNetV2, and MCUNetV1, on the EuroSAT dataset. Experimental results show that, despite the optimizations required for deployment on the IMX500 platform, our models maintain a competitive 96.68% accuracy while operating within its 8 MB constraints. Specifically, the models reach an average processing throughput of 17.40 FPS with a latency of 27.43 ms. Furthermore, our system profile exhibits high energy efficiency, with a low energy footprint of 14.19 mJ per inference and an efficiency rating of 42.26 GMAC/J, demonstrating its viability for in-sensor deployment.

Dense volumetric reconstruction of cloud microphysical fields from sparse ground-based instruments remains an open problem, largely because the available measurements are heterogeneous in both modality and spatial coverage. We present AtmoFuseNet, a framework that fuses multi-view sky camera imagery with millimeter-wave cloud radar and ceilometer observations to produce 4D (three spatial dimensions plus time) estimates of cloud state and wind. The method operates in three stages: a cross-modal hierarchical aggregation module that combines image feature pyramids with instrument-derived vertical profiles through layer-wise cross-attention; a conditional variational refinement module that maps the resulting volume to physically consistent microphysical fields under differentiable radar and image forward models; and a correlation-based motion estimator that recovers per-voxel 3D wind vectors from consecutive volumetric reconstructions. On collocated observations from a semi-arid site, AtmoFuseNet reaches 0.026 g m^-3 liquid water content MAE and 1.18 m s^-1 wind speed MAE, improving over existing retrieval baselines. Ablation experiments isolate the contribution of each module.

VRR-QA evaluates whether video-language systems can infer spatial, temporal, viewpoint, depth, and visibility relations that are not always resolved by a single frame. We present an inference-only system built around adaptive test-time computation. The system first answers each question with a direct video-language model pass, then uses multiple lightweight views to find unstable questions. Only these difficult questions are routed to a high-budget dense evidence module that constructs timestamped frame observations, relation-specific probes, candidate verification, and conservative temporal aggregation. This design separates two problems that are often confused in video question answering: finding plausible alternative answers and deciding when a current answer should actually be changed. On the test split, the final system obtains 90.07 average accuracy and 87.81 macro average accuracy. The report focuses on the final test system and the implementation settings required to reproduce the adaptive dense verifier.

Multi-agent debate (MAD) is a promising strategy for improving LLM reasoning, but when agents converge on a shared answer, it is unclear whether that convergence reflects genuine deliberation or social compliance. We show that the conventional answer flip rate conflates three distinct mechanisms: spontaneous instability, stance-induced conformity, and reasoning-induced persuasion. Our three-source decomposition framework isolates each through controlled counterfactual conditions. In the primary MMLU-Pro setting, 37% of agent-question observations change under self-reflection alone, while robustness tests show substantial model-dependent instability across GPQA-Diamond and three model families; strict conformity is 29% in the primary setting and remains predominantly harmful across model replications (57-77% correct-to-wrong). A controlled information-gradient experiment reveals that even vacuous reasoning is associated with 20-39% error adoption among resistant agents, with reasoning-like presentation carrying substantial persuasive weight. Harmful conformity can be predicted from Round 0 features (AUC = 0.79), and risk-targeted intervention reduces it by 13.6 percentage points (p < 0.001). However, without correctness labels or self-reflection controls, reducing peer adoption does not improve accuracy, because harmful and beneficial influence cannot be distinguished.

This work addresses the problem of autonomous resource management in heterogeneous satellite cluster conducting Earth Observation (EO) missions including optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites. In autonomous operation mode, satellites are equipped with intelligent capabilities enabling real-time decision-making based on the latest conditions, while requiring minimal interaction with ground operators. Traditional scheduling approaches typically rely on mathematical models to represent satellite mission and resource management. Then, this problem is solved by using optimization algorithms. However, such solutions become less effective when the underlying models are not available, over complex, and inaccurate due to dynamic changes and uncertainties inherent in the space mission environment. A promising alternative is to reformulate the problem as a sequential decision-making process and apply model-free reinforcement learning techniques to enable adaptive and real-time resource management. To this end, we propose a novel transformer-based architecture tailored for heterogeneous satellite cluster autonomous EO Mission with relational observations-actions tokenization and differential attention mechanism. Our experimental results demonstrate significant performance improvements compared to the available baselines. Moreover, the proposed architecture exhibits strong adaptability and transferability with respect to varying numbers of satellite clusters.

Floating-material transport is influenced by unresolved processes that are often absent from available circulation products. We develop a data-driven transport-learning framework for learning effective transport corrections from limited Lagrangian observations using physically motivated ocean--atmosphere diagnostics and finite-memory representations motivated in part by inertial-particle memory effects. The diagnostic representation is analyzed through predictive and sparse symbolic-discovery approaches under leave-one-trajectory-out validation. Applications to Sargassum-following drifters in the Puerto Rico region and the Gulf Stream show that the diagnostics contain transport-relevant information beyond the baseline circulation products. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) ensembles provide flexible predictive trajectory corrections, while Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) tests whether instantaneous or delayed sparse symbolic transport structure can be extracted from the diagnostics. The results differ across flow regimes: (i) in Puerto Rico, delayed sparse symbolic corrections provide modest but systematic improvement; (ii) in the Gulf Stream application, dynamically useful sparse symbolic corrections remain primarily instantaneous even though delayed predictive information persists. These results support finite-memory transport effects in coarse-grained floating-material transport while also illustrating the difficulty of obtaining stable delayed sparse symbolic closures.

HTML observations in LLM-based web agents are extremely long, and while many reduction methods have been proposed, it remains unclear which methods reduce overall agent latency while maintaining performance. The main obstacle is the high cost of end-to-end evaluation: in our experiments, evaluating 11 methods across 32 configurations on 33 tasks of WorkArena L1 required 232.4 cumulative hours. To address this, we propose a lightweight evaluation framework based on the Minimal Failure Set (MFS), the minimal set of HTML elements whose removal causes task failure. We define coverage as the fraction of instances in which a reduction method fully retains the MFS, which serves as a proxy metric that requires neither web access nor LLM inference. We validate that coverage strongly correlates with end-to-end success rate, with over 100$\times$ speedup in cumulative evaluation time on both benchmarks. Using this framework, we find that extractive HTML reduction methods require either high computation cost or domain-specific optimization to reduce agent latency while maintaining performance. Building on this, we optimize a pruning program on MFS training data, achieving 2.2$\times$ faster per-step latency on WorkArena L1 while retaining 84% of the original success rate, and 3.1$\times$ faster on WebLinx while retaining 89%.

We construct a binary mixed-regime process with one deterministic textual regime and one random regime governed by an unobserved latent state. Even an ideal infinite-capacity sequence predictor that exactly recovers the text-only marginal law can become overconfident when the observed prefix is compatible with the wrong latent regime. The resulting entropy difference is not an ordinary optimization error; it is a sufficiency gap caused by marginalization over an unobserved state. We then formalize retrieval, tool use, and external grounding through an auxiliary binary signal with fidelity $γ\in [1/2,1]$. The resulting Bayesian update yields a contextual dominance threshold: a corrective signal reverses the posterior odds induced by the textual history exactly when its fidelity exceeds the text-only posterior weight assigned to the misleading regime. This threshold reduces, but does not generally eliminate, the sufficiency gap; complete closure requires perfect revelation of the relevant latent state or an equivalent verification mechanism. The analysis clarifies why temperature scaling cannot restore missing context, why grounding mechanisms must be both informative and learnably usable by the model, and why autonomous sequence models require structurally decoupled observers or verifiers in high-stakes domains.

Large Language Models are increasingly proposed as cognitive components for robotic systems, yet their opaque decision processes make it difficult to explain success or failure in closed-loop embodied tasks. Following an empirical AI methodology, we study embodied LLM agents behaviorally by varying the information available to the agent and measuring the resulting changes in behavior. Using the Lockbox, a sequential mechanical puzzle with hidden interdependencies, we evaluate LLMs across RGB, RGB-D, and ground-truth symbolic observations in a physical robotic setup and use controlled simulation to probe the resulting behavior. Counterintuitively, agents perform best under raw RGB input and worst under perfect ground-truth observations. In simulation, we probe this effect by randomly flipping perceived action outcomes and find that moderate noise improves performance, peaking at a 40% flip probability with a 2.85-fold success rate increase over the noise-free baseline. Further analysis links this gain to a reduction in repetitive action loops. These findings suggest that success rates alone are insufficient for evaluating LLMs, as measured performance may reflect the interaction between perceptual errors and reasoning failures rather than robust problem solving.

A/B testing remains the gold standard for evaluating modifications to e-commerce storefronts, yet it diverts traffic, requires weeks to reach statistical significance, and risks degrading user experience. We present SimGym, a framework for simulating A/B tests on e-commerce storefronts using vision-language model (VLM) agents operating in a live browser. The framework comprises three key components: (a) a traffic-grounded persona generation pipeline that derives per-shop buyer archetypes and intents from production clickstream data; (b) a live-browser agent architecture that combines multimodal perception over visual and browser-structured observations with episodic memory and guardrails to conduct coherent shopping sessions across control and treatment storefronts; and (c) an evaluation protocol that compares simulated outcome shifts with observed shifts in real buyer behavior. We validate SimGym on A/B tests of visually driven UI theme changes from a major e-commerce platform across diverse storefronts and product categories. Empirical results show that SimGym agents achieve strong agreement with observed outcome shifts, attaining 77% directional alignment with add-to-cart shifts observed across interface variants in real-buyer traffic. It reduces experimental cycles from weeks to under an hour, enabling rapid experimentation without exposing real buyers to candidate variants.

Inferring unknown initial states in shock-dominated compressible flows from sparse and noisy measurements is a challenging ill-posed inverse problem due to nonlinear wave interactions and limited sensing. In this work, we develop a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for efficient Bayesian initial-state inversion with uncertainty quantification. The framework combines a convolutional autoencoder with a learned latent-space forward operator. The autoencoder compresses high-dimensional flow fields into a compact nonlinear latent representation, while the forward operator predicts final-time latent states from encoded initial conditions. This AE-ROM surrogate enables rapid forward evaluations and is embedded within a No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) for posterior exploration. The framework is demonstrated using 500 high-fidelity Sod shock tube simulations generated through Latin hypercube sampling and solved using a fifth-order WENO scheme. The inverse problem seeks to recover unknown left and right density and pressure states from sparse noisy observations of final-time density and pressure fields. Results show that the AE-ROM accurately reconstructs key shock-tube structures, including the rarefaction wave, contact discontinuity, and shock front. A latent dimension of 32 provides an effective balance between reconstruction accuracy and reduced-space compactness, while 250 training simulations are sufficient for accurate reconstruction. Increasing observation density significantly contracts posterior uncertainty, reducing the mean posterior standard deviation by approximately 78% for density and 76% for pressure. Overall, the proposed framework provides a computationally efficient and uncertainty-aware approach for inverse analysis of shock-dominated flows, with potential extensions to multidimensional compressible-flow and digital-twin applications.

Tool-augmented LLM agents call APIs whose intermediate outputs, such as presigned URLs, session tokens, and OAuth state parameters, are observation contracts: artifacts whose later use is constrained by the external system that produced them. We show that observation contract compliance (preserving the temporal validity and byte-level integrity) is an emergent, regression-prone capability: it is neither guaranteed by general tool-use ability nor consistently improved by larger or newer models. To measure this, we introduce ContractBench, a benchmark of 33 dual-axis tasks that probe two orthogonal failure modes no existing benchmark evaluates: validity failures (using an artifact after expiry) and integrity failures (corrupting an artifact's bytes through the observation-to-action pipeline). Our evaluation is deterministic and programmatic, with a virtual clock controlling time and SHA-256 hashes verifying byte integrity. We assign each outcome a failure label drawn from real-world API specifications. We evaluate 38 models and report four findings: (i) no evaluated model clears 80%, with Claude-Opus-4.6 leading at 77.8%, revealing that current frontier models still fail to comply with observation contracts; (ii) a sharp within-family capability cliff in Qwen 3.5 between 4B (0%) and 9B (56.6%), smoothing to 70.7% at 397B-A17B: what emerges across the cliff is mid-trajectory restraint, not tool-call competence; (iii) non-monotonic scaling across the GPT-5 family: agentic post-training can erode compliance through sycophancy-driven regression; (iv) our failure taxonomy works as an actionable in-context reward signal, yielding +7.1 pp on 42 paired GPT-5.1 failures.

We consider amortized Bayesian inference for nonlinear inverse problems in settings where only samples from the joint distribution of parameters and observations are available. Classical methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo require solving a new inference problem for each observation, which can be computationally prohibitive when inference must be repeated many times. We propose a transport-based approach that learns an observation-dependent map pushing forward a reference measure to approximate the posterior distribution. The map is trained by minimizing an averaged energy-distance objective between the true posterior and the learned pushforward. This formulation is likelihood-free, requiring only joint samples, and avoids density evaluation, invertibility constraints, and Jacobian determinant computations. For function-space inverse problems with Gaussian priors, we parameterize the transport map as the identity plus a perturbation in the Cameron-Martin space of the prior, preserving absolute continuity with respect to the prior. In infinite-dimensional settings, the map is represented using neural operators. We illustrate the method on a finite-dimensional nonlinear inverse problem and two PDE-constrained inverse problems arising in porous medium flow and seismic inversion. The results show that the learned transport captures posterior structure, including multimodality and dominant modes, while enabling fast posterior sampling for new observations.

Large language models (LLMs) have been extensively studied from computational and cognitive perspectives, yet their behavior as communicative actors in socially structured contexts remains underexplored. This study examines whether LLM-based multi-agent systems exhibit systematic linguistic adaptation in response to perceived social observation contexts -- a question with direct implications for AI governance and auditing. Drawing on Habermas's (1981) Theory of Communicative Action, Goffman's (1959) dramaturgical model, Bell's (1984) Audience Design framework, and the Hawthorne Effect, we report a controlled experiment involving 100 multi-agent debate sessions across five conditions (n = 20 each). Conditions varied the framing of social observation -- from explicit monitoring by university researchers, to negation of monitoring, to an observer-substitution condition replacing human researchers with an automated AI auditing system. Monitored conditions (Delta+24.9%, Delta+24.2%) and the automated AI monitoring condition (Delta+22.2%) produce higher TTR change than audience-framing conditions (Delta+17.7%), F(4, 94) = 2.79, p = .031. Message length shows a fully dissociated effect, F(4, 95) = 19.55, p < .001. A fifth condition -- replacing human with AI observers -- yields intermediate TTR adaptation, suggesting LLM behavior is sensitive to observer identity: human evaluation elicits stronger register formalization than automated AI surveillance. We discuss implications for AI governance, algorithmic auditing, and the repositioning of LLMs as contextually sensitive communicative actors.

Interpreting ultra-high-resolution (UHR) remote sensing images requires models to search for sparse and tiny visual evidence across large-scale scenes. Existing remote sensing vision-language models can inspect local regions with zooming and cropping tools, but most exploration strategies follow either a one-shot focus or a single sequential trajectory. Such single-path exploration can lose global context, leave scattered regions unvisited, and revisit or count the same evidence multiple times. To this end, we propose GeoVista, a planning-driven active perception framework for UHR remote sensing interpretation. Instead of committing to one zooming path, GeoVista first builds a global exploration plan, then verifies multiple candidate regions through branch-wise local inspection, while maintaining an explicit evidence state for cross-region aggregation and de-duplication. To enable this behavior, we introduce APE-GRO, a cold-start supervised trajectory corpus that reformulates diverse UHR tasks as Global-Region-Object interactive reasoning processes with a unified, scale-invariant spatial representation. We further design an Observe-Plan-Track mechanism for global observation, adaptive region inspection, and evidence tracking, and align the model with a GRPO-based strategy using step-wise rewards for planning, localization, and final answer correctness. Experiments on RSHR-Bench, XLRS-Bench, and LRS-VQA show that GeoVista achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/ryan6073/GeoVista.

Whether navigating a building, operating a robot, or playing a game, an agent that acts effectively in an environment must first learn an internal model of how that environment works. Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible modeling class for such internal world models, but learning them from observation-action trajectories alone is challenging and typically requires extensive environment interaction. We ask whether language-model priors can reduce costly interaction by leveraging prior knowledge, and introduce \emph{Pinductor} (POMDP-inductor): an LLM proposes candidate POMDP models from a few observation-action trajectories and iteratively refines them to optimize a belief-based likelihood score. Despite using strictly less information, \emph{Pinductor} matches the performance and sample efficiency of LLM-based POMDP learning methods that assume privileged access to the hidden state, while significantly surpassing the sample efficiency of tabular POMDP baselines. Further results show that performance scales with LLM capability and degrades gracefully as semantic information about the environment is withheld. Together, these results position language-model priors as a practical tool for sample-efficient world-model learning under partial observability, and a step toward generalist agents in real-world environments. Code is available at https://github.com/atomresearch/pinductor.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), which infers reward functions from demonstrations, is a valuable tool for modeling and understanding decision-making behavior. Many variants of IRL have been developed to capture complexities of human decision-making, such as subjective beliefs, imperfect planning, and dynamic goals. However, an often-overlooked issue in real-world behavioral datasets is that the recorded data may be missing observations that were available to the original decision-maker. In use-inspired settings such as healthcare, this can make expert actions appear suboptimal, even when they were near-optimal given the information available at the time. As a result, the rewards learned by standard IRL may be misleading. In this paper, we identify the minimal perturbations to the recorded observations needed for the expert's actions to appear optimal. We develop a practical algorithm for this problem and demonstrate its utility for quantifying the possible extent of missing observations in behavioral datasets through extensive experiments on synthetic navigation tasks, a cancer treatment simulator, and ICU treatment data.

When people share the same documents and observations yet reach different conclusions, the disagreement often shifts into a judgment that the other party is cognitively defective, irrational, or acting in bad faith. This paper argues that such divergence is better described as a form of non-identifiability inherent in inference and learning, rather than as a defect of the other party. We organize the phenomenon into two levels: (i) $θ$-level non-identifiability, where conclusions diverge under the same world model $W$ because inference settings differ; and (ii) $W$-level non-identifiability, where repeated use of an inference setting $θ$ biases data exposure and update rules, causing the learned world model $W$ itself to diverge. We introduce an inference profile $θ= (R, E, S, D)$, consisting of Reference, Exploration, Stabilization, and Horizon, and show how outputs can split even for the same observation $o$ and the same $W$. We further explain why disagreements tend to project onto a small number of bases -- abstract versus concrete, externalizability, and order versus freedom -- as a consequence of general constraints on learning systems: computational, observational, and coordination constraints. Finally, we relate the framework to deep representation learning, including representation hierarchy, latent-state estimation, and regularization-exploration trade-offs, and illustrate the framework through a case study on AI regulation debates.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) increasingly operate on ultra-high-resolution (UHR) Earth observation imagery, yet they remain vulnerable to a severe scale mismatch between large-scale scene context and micro-scale targets. We refer to this empirical gap as a "resolution illusion": higher input resolution provides the appearance of richer visual detail, but does not necessarily yield reliable perception of spatially small, task-relevant evidence. To benchmark this challenge, we introduce UHR-Micro, a benchmark comprising 11,253 instructions grounded in 1,212 UHR images, designed to evaluate VLMs at the spatial limits of native Earth observation imagery. UHR-Micro spans diverse micro-target scales, context requirements, task families, and visual conditions, and provides diagnostic annotations that support controlled evaluation and fine-grained error attribution. Experiments with representative high-resolution VLMs show substantial failures in spatial grounding and evidence parsing, despite access to high-resolution inputs. Further analysis suggests that these failures are not fully resolved by increasing model capacity, but are closely tied to insufficient guidance in locating and using task-relevant micro-evidence. Motivated by this finding, we propose Micro-evidence Active Perception (MAP), a reference agent that decomposes queries into evidence-seeking steps, actively inspects candidate regions, and grounds its answers in localized observations. MAP-Agent improves micro-level perception by making high-resolution reasoning evidence-centered rather than image-centered. Together, UHR-Micro and MAP-Agent provide a diagnostic platform for evaluating, understanding, and advancing high-resolution reasoning in Earth observation VLMs. Datasets and source code were released at https://github.com/MiliLab/UHR-Micro.

Task completion in digital and physical environments increasingly involves complex temporal interaction, where actions and observations unfold over different time scales rather than align with fixed observation--action steps. To model such interactions, we propose \emph{Engagement Process} (EP), an interaction formalism that inherits the decision-theoretic structure of POMDPs while making time explicit in the action--observation interface. EP represents actions and observations as decoupled event streams along time, rather than updates paired at fixed decision steps. This interface captures single-agent timing issues such as deliberation latency, delayed feedback, and persistent actions, while supporting richer agent-side organization, multi-rate coordination, and compositional interaction among subsystems. Across toy, LLM-agent, and learning experiments, EP exposes temporal behaviors hidden by step-based interfaces and enables policies to adapt under explicit time costs.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) and imitation-learning policies trained via community toolchains on low-cost hardware frequently fail when deployed outside the training environment. Existing evaluations, including the original ACT and SmolVLA benchmarks, demonstrate high success rates under controlled, fixed backgrounds, yet community practitioners report near-zero transfer to new environments. We present SEVO (Semantic-Enhanced Virtual Observation), a data-centric approach that improves cross-environment manipulation robustness without modifying the policy architecture. SEVO transforms the raw RGB camera stream through three mechanisms: (1) body-fixed cameras whose combined fields of view cover the full manipulation workspace, (2) active red-spectrum illumination that physically normalizes object appearance, and (3) real-time YOLO segmentation overlay that provides a background-invariant semantic cue. Critically, we show that a diversified data collection protocol (systematically varying lighting, backgrounds, and distractors during teleoperation) is the single most important factor for generalization. We target transparent water bottles, objects that visually blend with their surroundings, and select a simple pick-and-place task to enable hundreds of controlled real-robot trials across two mobile platforms. The full pipeline achieves 95% grasp success with ACT and 83% with SmolVLA in the training environment, transferring to novel environments at 85% and 75%. Without SEVO, the same policies achieve only 75%/70% in training and collapse to 30-35% in novel environments. Our results demonstrate that principled observation design and environmental diversity during data collection, not model scaling, enable low-cost robots to operate reliably in everyday household environments.

Clinical time-series data are difficult to model with methods designed for regular sequences because they exhibit irregular sampling, frequent missing values, and heterogeneous observation patterns across variables. Existing approaches commonly use observation masks and time-gap information, but they do not continuously capture the decaying reliability of past observations or consistently organize multi-resolution information within a coherent temporal context during aggregation. To address these limitations, we propose Reliability-aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba (ReTAMamba), which reconstructs clinical time series as time-variable token sequences, estimates observation reliability from missingness and elapsed time, and augments interval summaries with statistical descriptors. Chronological Weaving is used to integrate short- and long-term temporal information within a coherent temporal context, and a budgeted token router is applied to constrain sequence length while preserving informative summaries. Experiments on MIMIC-IV, eICU, and PhysioNet 2012 show that ReTAMamba consistently improves AUPRC over strong baselines, with average relative gains of 7.51%, 7.80%, and 10.15%, respectively. Cohort-level and patient-level analyses on eICU further showed that the learned mean decay for more dynamic signals, such as heart rate and blood pressure, was 24.3% larger than that for relatively static signals, such as laboratory test variables. These findings suggest that effective prediction in irregular clinical time series requires modeling not only what was measured, but also when and how it was observed, including information freshness and observation timeliness.

Dynamics of interacting systems in engineering, society, and nature often evolve over latent networks that govern which entities can interact. We study the problem of inferring these networks from event-based observations, which arise naturally in finance, seismology, and neuroscience. While there is substantial algorithmic work addressing this important problem, theoretical results are scarce. In this paper we ask the following fundamental question: what is the minimum time that one must observe the dynamics in order to exactly recover the underlying network, as a function of the number $d$ of interacting entities? For a class of stationary Hawkes processes with sparse, weak interactions, we prove that an observation time of order $\log d$ is sufficient and necessary. For the upper bound we construct a two-stage estimator that uses clipped and binned event data for screening, followed by a least-squares refinement, and apply concentration bounds derived from the Poisson cluster representation. For the lower bound we combine Fano's inequality with Jacod's Girsanov formula for point processes on a suitable subclass of networks.

We define susceptibilities as a measure of the response of an observable quantity of a parameterized statistical model to a perturbation of the data for a general class of observables. We define estimators for these susceptibilities as statistics in a sequence of n data-points and prove that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically unbiased in the large n regime.

Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions is central to treatment risk assessment and counterfactual generation tasks. Existing approaches model the counterfactual distribution as a standalone generative target, without exploiting its relationship to the observational data. In this work, we show that under standard assumptions, observational and counterfactual outcome distributions are tightly linked: they have identical support and tail behavior, remain statistically close under weak confounding, and share any features of high-dimensional outcomes which are invariant to confounders. These properties motivate learning counterfactual distributions not from scratch, but via a deconfounding flow from the observational distribution. We formulate this problem via flow-matching and derive a semiparametrically efficient estimator based on a novel efficient influence function correction. We subsequently extend our estimator to target minimal-energy flows in high-dimensions, which we show can be especially simple targets between observational and counterfactual distributions. In experiments, deconfounding flows outperform existing debiased counterfactual distribution estimators, while also mitigating known failure modes of flow-based methods.

Web agents perceive web pages through an observation space, yet its granularity has remained an underexamined design choice. Existing work treats observation at the same element-level granularity as the action space, leaving the page's functional organization implicit and forcing the agent to infer it from element-level signals at every step. We argue observation should instead operate at the granularity of functional regions, parts of the page that each serve a distinct purpose. We propose Region4Web, a framework that reorganizes the AXTree into functional regions through hierarchical decomposition and semantic abstraction, exposing the page's functional organization as the basis for page state understanding. Moreover, we propose PageDigest, a web-specific inference pipeline that delivers this region-level observation to the actor agent as a compact per-page digest that persists across steps. On the WebArena benchmark, PageDigest substantially reduces observation length while improving overall task success rate across diverse backbone large language models (LLMs) and established agent methods, regardless of backbone capacity. These results show that operating at the granularity of functional regions delivers a more compact and informative basis for the actor agent than element-level processing alone.

Computer-use agents(CUAs)are moving frombounded benchmarks toward real software environments, wherethey operate browsers, desktops, mobile applications, flesystems,terminals, and tool backends. In such settings, reliability isno longer captured by task success alone: perception errors,planning drift, memory use, tool mediation, permission scope,and runtime oversight jointly determine whether agent actionsremain aligned with user intent, Existing surveys organize theCUA landscape by methods, platforms, benchmarks, or securitythreats, but less explicitly connect capability formation, author-ity exposure, failure manifestation, and control placement. Toaddress this gap, the article develops an architecture-lifecycleframework for deployment-grounded reliability in CUAs. Thearchitectural view analyzes Perception, Decision, and Executionas coupled layers that transform software observations intoauthority-bearing actions, The lifecycle view examines Creation.Deployment, Operation, and Maintenance as stages in which priorsare learned, tools and permissions are bound, runtime trajecto.ries are stressed, and assurance must be preserved under drift.Using this lens, the analysis synthesizes representative systems,benchmarks, and security/privacy studies; distinguishes wherefailures become visible from where their enabling conditions areintroduced, and maps recurring intervention surfaces for controloversight, and assurance. OpenClaw is used only as a public moti.vating example of an open deployment pattern, not as a verifedinternal case study. The conclusion highlights open challengesin controllable grounding, long-horizon constraint preservation,safe authority binding, mixed-trust runtime defense, privacy-preserving memory,and continual assurance.

What does it mean to understand the world? Contemporary world models often operationalize understanding as accurate future prediction in latent or observation space. Developmental cognitive science, however, suggests a different view: human understanding emerges through the construction of internal theories of how the world works, even before mature language is acquired. Inspired by this theory-building view of cognition, we introduce Learning-to-Theorize, a learning paradigm for inferring explicit explanatory theories of the world from raw, non-textual observations. We instantiate this paradigm with the Neural Theorizer (NEO), a World Theory Model, that induces latent programs as a learned Language of Thought and executes them through a shared transition model. In NEO, a theory is represented as an executable, compositional program whose learned primitives can be systematically recombined to explain novel phenomena. Experiments show that this formulation enables explanation-driven generalization, allowing observations to be understood in terms of the programs that generate them.

Earth Observation (EO) analysis is inherently interactive: resolving uncertainty often requires expanding the region of interest, retrieving historical observations, and switching across sensors such as optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar. However, most EO benchmarks collapse this process into fixed-input, single-turn tasks. To address this gap, we present EO-Gym, a controlled executable framework for multimodal, tool-using EO agents that formulates EO analysis as a Gymnasium-style local geospatial workspace backed by more than 660k multimodal files indexed by location, time, and sensor type, with 35 EO-specialized tools spanning six task families. Built on this environment, we construct EO-Gym-Data, a benchmark of 9,078 trajectories and 34,604 reasoning steps, and grounded in eight public EO datasets together with Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery. Evaluating $10$ open and closed VLMs shows that strong general-purpose models still struggle with interactive EO reasoning, especially on temporal and cross-modal workflows. As a reference baseline, EO-Gym-4B, obtained by fine-tuning Qwen3-VL-4B-Instruct on EO-Gym-Data, improves overall Pass@3 from $0.49$ to $0.74$ under the main evaluation setting. O-Gym provides a reproducible environment for interactive EO agents, operationalizing EO as an evidence-gathering problem that requires planning across geospatial, temporal, and sensing modality.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly tasked with strategic decision-making under incomplete information, such as in negotiation and policymaking. While LLMs can excel at many such tasks, they also fail in ways that are poorly understood. We shed light on these failures by uncovering two fundamental gaps in the internal mechanisms underlying the decision-making of LLMs in incomplete-information games, supported by experiments with open-weight models Llama 3.1, Qwen3, and gpt-oss. First, an observation-belief gap: LLMs encode internal beliefs about latent game states that are substantially more accurate than their own verbal reports, yet these beliefs are brittle. In particular, the belief accuracy degrades with multi-hop reasoning, exhibits primacy and recency biases, and drifts away from Bayesian coherence over extended interactions. Second, a belief-action gap: The implicit conversion of internal beliefs into actions is weaker than that of the beliefs externalized in the prompt, yet neither belief-conditioning consistently achieves higher game payoffs. These results show how analyzing LLMs' internal processes can expose systematic vulnerabilities that warrant caution before deploying LLMs in strategic domains without robust guardrails.

Accurately reconstructing complex full multi-object scenes from sparse observations remains a core challenge in computer vision and a key step toward scalable and reliable simulation for robotics. In this work, we introduce RecGen, a generative framework for probabilistic joint estimation of object and part shapes, as well as their pose under occlusion and partial visibility from one or multiple RGB-D images. By leveraging compositional synthetic scene generation and strong 3D shape priors, RecGen generalizes across diverse object types and real-world environments. RecGen achieves state-of-the-art performance on complex, heavily occluded datasets, robustly handling severe occlusions, symmetric objects, object parts, and intricate geometry and texture. Despite using nearly 80% fewer training meshes than the previous state of the art SAM3D, RecGen outperforms it by 30.1% in geometric shape quality, 9.1% in texture reconstruction, and 33.9% in pose estimation.

Deploying production-ready multi-agent systems (MAS) in complex industrial environments remains challenging due to limitations in scalability, observability, and autonomous evolution. We present OxyGent, an open-source framework driven by two core novelties: a unified Oxy abstraction and the OxyBank evolution engine. The unified abstraction encapsulates agents, tools, LLMs, and reasoning flows as pluggable atomic components, enabling Lego-like scalable system composition and non-intrusive monitoring. To enhance observability, OxyGent introduces permission-driven dynamic planning that replaces rigid workflows with execution graphs generated at runtime, providing adaptive visualizations. Furthermore, to support continuous evolution, OxyBank serves as an AI asset management platform that drives automated data backflow, annotation, and joint evolution. Empirical evaluations and real-world case studies show that OxyGent provides a robust and scalable foundation for MAS. OxyGent is fully open-sourced under the Apache License 2.0 at https://github.com/jd-opensource/OxyGent.

LLM-based financial agents increasingly produce investment rationales before the outcomes needed to evaluate them are observable. This creates a delayed-ground-truth evaluation problem: realized returns remain the eventual arbiter of investment quality, but they arrive too late and are too noisy to guide many model-development and governance decisions. LLM judges offer a tempting shortcut for pre-deployment evaluation of AI-finance systems, but unvalidated judges may reward verbosity, confidence, or rubric mimicry rather than financial judgment. This paper introduces ValueBlindBench, a preregistered agreement-gated stress-test protocol for deciding when LLM-judged investment-rationale claims are publishable, qualified, or invalid. In a controlled market-state capital-allocation prototype with 1,000 honest decision cycles and 100 preregistered adversarial controls (1,100 trajectories, 5,500 judge calls), ValueBlindBench clears the aggregate agreement gate at $\barκ_w = 0.7168$ but prevents several overclaims. Lower-rank systems collapse into a tie-class, one rubric dimension fails the per-dimension gate (\texttt{constraint_awareness}, $\barκ_w = 0.2022$), single-judge rankings are family-dependent, and terse-correct rationales receive a $Δ= -2.81$ rubric-point penalty relative to honest rationales. A targeted anchor-specificity probe further shows that financial constructs such as constraint awareness are operationally load-bearing. The scientific object is therefore not a leaderboard and not a claim to measure true investment skill. ValueBlindBench is a pre-calibration metrology layer for AI-finance evaluation: it governs whether a proposed LLM-judge-based investment-rationale claim is stable enough, agreed enough, and uncontaminated enough to be reported at all.

We consider online learning problems under a partial observability model capturing situations where the information conveyed to the learner is between full information and bandit feedback. In the simplest variant, we assume that in addition to its own loss, the learner also gets to observe losses of some other actions. The revealed losses depend on the learner's action and a directed observation system chosen by the environment. For this setting, we propose the first algorithm that enjoys near-optimal regret guarantees without having to know the observation system before selecting its actions. Along similar lines, we also define a new partial information setting that models online combinatorial optimization problems where the feedback received by the learner is between semi-bandit and full feedback. As the predictions of our first algorithm cannot be always computed efficiently in this setting, we propose another algorithm with similar properties and with the benefit of always being computationally efficient, at the price of a slightly more complicated tuning mechanism. Both algorithms rely on a novel exploration strategy called implicit exploration, which is shown to be more efficient both computationally and information-theoretically than previously studied exploration strategies for the problem.

Urban flooding affects lives and infrastructure worldwide. Mapping inundation in complex urban environments from satellite imagery remains challenging due to limited spatial resolution, infrequent acquisitions, and cloud cover. We present Urban Flood Observations (UFO), a global, hand-labeled dataset of post-flood inundation in diverse urban settings. UFO comprises 215 image chips (1024 by 1024 pixels) from 14 flood events between 2017 and 2021, derived from 3 m PlanetScope imagery. Each chip is annotated with two classes: 'inundated' (all visible surface water, including floodwater and pre-existing water bodies (permanent or seasonal)) and 'non-inundated'. To demonstrate the dataset's utility, we trained a segmentation model using leave-one-event-out cross-validation, achieving a mean Intersection over Union (IoU) of 77.3. We also used UFO to evaluate two widely used surface water products, the Sentinel-1-based NASA IMPACT model and Google's 10 m Dynamic World water class, which yielded IoUs of 44.1 and 48.1, respectively. UFO is publicly available to support the development and validation of urban inundation mapping methods.

We establish that temporal averaging over multiple observations is the degenerate case of algebraic group action with the trivial group $G=\{e\}$. A General Replacement Theorem proves that a group-averaged estimator from one snapshot achieves equivalent subspace decomposition to multi-snapshot covariance estimation. The Trivial Group Embedding Theorem proves that the sample covariance is the accumulation of trivial-group estimates, with variance governed by a $(G,L)$ continuum as $1/(|G|\cdot L)$. The processing gain $10\log_{10}(M)$ dB equals the classical beamforming gain, establishing that this gain is a property of group order, not sensor count. The DFT, DCT, and KLT are unified as group-matched special cases. We conjecture a General Algebraic Averaging Theorem extending these results to arbitrary statistics, with variance governed by the effective group order $d_{\mathrm{eff}}$. Monte Carlo experiments on the first four sample moments across five group types confirm the conjecture to four-digit precision. The framework exploits the $structure$ of information (representation-theoretic symmetry of the data object) rather than the content, complementing Shannon's theory. Five applications are demonstrated: single-snapshot MUSIC, massive MIMO, single-pulse waveform classification, graph signal processing, and analysis of transformer LLMs. Techniques for blind group matching are described.

This article addresses the issue of estimating observation parameters (response and error parameters) in inverse problems. The focus is on cases where regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework and the prior is modeled by a diffusion process. In this context, the issue of posterior sampling is known to be thorny, and a recent paper proposes a notably simple and effective solution. Additionally, it opens an remarkable flexibility when it comes to estimating observation parameters. The proposed strategy enables to define an optimal estimator for both observation parameters and image of interest. Furthermore, the strategy provides a means for uncertainty quantification. In addition, MCMC algorithms allow for the computation of estimates and properties of posteriors, while offering some guarantees. The paper presents several numerical experiments that clearly confirm the computational efficiency and the quality of both estimates and uncertainty quantification.

This paper addresses the issue of inversion in cases where (1) the observation system is modeled by a linear transformation and additive error, (2) the problem is ill-posed and regularization relies on a Bayesian strategy, (3)~the prior is modeled by a diffusion process adjusted on an available large set of examples. In this context, it is known that the issue of posterior sampling is a thorny one and the paper introduces a Gibbs algorithm. It appears that this avenue has not been explored, and we show that it is particularly effective and remarkably simple. In addition, it provides clear elements regarding convergence guarantees in a specific case and arguments supporting such guarantees in practical cases. The results are clearly confirmed by numerical simulations based on a toy example.

In cooperative environments, such as in factories or assistive scenarios, it is important for a robot to communicate its intentions to observers, who could be either other humans or robots. A legible trajectory allows an observer to quickly and accurately predict an agent's intention. In adversarial environments, such as in military operations or games, it is important for a robot to not communicate its intentions to observers. An illegible trajectory leads an observer to incorrectly predict the agent's intention or delays when an observer is able to make a correct prediction about the agent's intention. However, in some environments there are multiple observers, each of whom may be able to see only part of the environment, and each of whom may have different motives. In this work, we introduce the Mixed-Motive Limited-Observability Legible Motion Planning (MMLO-LMP) problem, which requires a motion planner to generate a trajectory that is legible to observers with positive motives and illegible to observers with negative motives while also considering the visibility limitations of each observer. We highlight multiple strategies an agent can take while still achieving the problem objective. We also present DUBIOUS, a trajectory optimizer that solves MMLO-LMP. Our results show that DUBIOUS can generate trajectories that balance legibility with the motives and limited visibility regions of the observers. Future work includes many variations of MMLO-LMP, including moving observers and observer teaming.

In many experimental settings, active learning can improve sample efficiency by sequentially selecting where to measure, which is particularly valuable when experiments are expensive. Gaussian processes with variance-based acquisition criteria are widely used for this purpose, but have two limitations. First, they are observation-independent: their posterior variance depends only on where samples are acquired, not on what is measured, impairing their sensitivity to the structure of the acquired data. Second, they inflate the variance near boundaries, leading to excessive sampling at the edges of the space compared to the interior. These limitations undermine the gains in sampling efficiency expected from sequential acquisition. We address both limitations. We derive a reconstruction-driven design density and use the posterior mean to build a training-free warp that places more measurements where the target function varies rapidly. A geometric equalizer separately corrects boundary bias. Across sixteen synthetic and two real-data benchmarks, the geometric equalizer consistently improves function reconstruction by correcting boundary bias, while the reconstruction warp provides further gains by concentrating measurements where the posterior mean varies rapidly.

Time series generation (TSG) is widely used across domains, yet most existing methods assume regular sampling and fixed output resolutions. These assumptions are often violated in practice, where observations are irregular and sparse, while downstream applications require continuous and high-resolution TS. Although Neural Controlled Differential Equation (NCDE) is promising for modeling irregular TS, it is constrained by a single dynamics function, tightly coupled optimization, and limited ability to adapt learned dynamics to newly generated samples from the generative model. We propose Diff-MN, a continuous TSG framework that enhances NCDE with a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) dynamics function and a decoupled architectural design for dynamics-focused training. To further enable NCDE to generalize to newly generated samples, Diff-MN employs a diffusion model to parameterize the NCDE temporal dynamics parameters (MoE weights), i.e., jointly learn the distribution of TS data and MoE weights. This design allows sample-specific NCDE parameters to be generated for continuous TS generation. Experiments on ten public and synthetic datasets demonstrate that Diff-MN consistently outperforms strong baselines on both irregular-to-regular and irregular-to-continuous TSG tasks. The code is available at the link https://github.com/microsoft/TimeCraft/tree/main/Diff-MN.

The visible parts of a scene are determined by occlusion among overlapping surfaces. Here we consider "dead leaves" models, which replicate this by independently sampling objects ("leaves") with position, shape, color, and texture and layering them until the image is covered. Building on prior theory, we present a self-contained framework that rigorously defines the dead leaves model and derives an analytical Bayesian ideal observer for partitioning finite pixel sets. The longest part of the paper spans the derivation of the prior probability, which elevates the observer beyond pixel-similarity methods by incorporating geometric information. These computations are practical only for small pixel sets (up to 9-10 pixels). We emphasize accessibility through step-by-step derivations, extensive visualizations, and examples. We empirically evaluate three tractable observers (prior-only, likelihood-only, and the full ideal observer), plus a random baseline on 108 dead leaves image datasets varying in texture intensity, leaf size, and image size. Likelihood-only performance falls with increasing texture intensity and image size. Prior-only performance falls with decreasing leaf size and increasing maximal image dimension. All model-based observers strongly outperform the random baseline, and the ideal observer consistently outperforms the others by combining both information sources. The model provides a principled upper bound on segmentation performance for limited pixel sets, enabling comparisons with human observers and algorithms.

We consider the problem of learning the parameters of a $N$-dimensional stochastic linear dynamics under both full and partial observations from a single trajectory of time $T$. We introduce and analyze a new estimator that achieves a small maximum element-wise error on the recovery of symmetric dynamic matrices using only $T=\mathcal{O}(\log N)$ observations, irrespective of whether the matrix is sparse or dense. This estimator is based on the method of moments and does not rely on problem-specific regularization. This is especially important for applications such as structure discovery.

We study linear contextual bandits with paid observations, where at each round the learner observes a context, selects an action, and may pay a fixed cost to observe feedback from a subset of arms. We propose two Follow-the-Regularized-Leader algorithms with Best-of-Both-Worlds guarantees. The first, Agg-SPB, extends the SPB-matching framework of Tsuchiya and Ito (2024) by aggregating context-dependent stability terms, achieving the characteristic $T^{2/3}$ adversarial regret rate and logarithmic dependence on $T$ in stochastic environments. The second, CE-SPB, combines arm-dependent observation probabilities with an entropy-adaptive learning rate inspired by Kuroki et al. (2024). It achieves an entropy-adaptive $\widetilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ adversarial guarantee and polylogarithmic stochastic regret, while avoiding the minimum-context-mass dependence arising in the stochastic analysis of Agg-SPB. Both algorithms further extend to corrupted stochastic environments with explicit corruption-dependent guarantees. These results establish that logarithmic stochastic regret is compatible with the $T^{2/3}$ adversarial regime for linear contextual bandits with paid observations, while highlighting a tradeoff between sharper horizon dependence in stochastic settings and path-dependent matching without explicit minimum-context-mass dependence.

Penetration testing, the simulation of cyberattacks to identify security vulnerabilities, presents a sequential decision-making problem well-suited for reinforcement learning (RL) automation. Like many applications of RL to real-world problems, partial observability presents a major challenge, as it invalidates the Markov property present in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Partially Observable MDPs require history aggregation or belief state estimation to learn successful policies. We investigate stochastic, partially observable penetration testing scenarios over host networks of varying size, aiming to better reflect real-world complexity through more challenging and representative benchmarks. This approach leads to the development of more robust and transferable policies, which are crucial for ensuring reliable performance across diverse and unpredictable real-world environments. Using vanilla Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as a baseline, we compare a selection of PPO-based variants designed to mitigate partial observability, including frame-stacking, augmenting observations with historical information, and employing LSTM or TrXL architectures. We conduct a systematic empirical analysis of these algorithms across different host network sizes. We find that this task greatly benefits from history aggregation. Converging up to four times faster than other approaches. Manual inspection of the learned policies by the algorithms reveals clear distinctions and provides insights that go beyond quantitative results.

Many prediction tasks can admit multiple models that can perform almost equally well. This phenomenon can undermine interpretability and safety when competing models assign conflicting predictions to individuals. In this work, we study how arbitrariness can arise in probabilistic classification tasks as a result of an effect that we call \emph{observational multiplicity}. We discuss how this effect arises in a broad class of practical applications where we learn a classifier to predict probabilities $p_i \in [0,1]$ but are given a dataset of observations $y_i \in \{0,1\}$. We propose to evaluate the arbitrariness of individual probability predictions through the lens of \emph{regret}. We introduce a measure of regret for probabilistic classification tasks, which measures how the predictions of a model could change as a result of different training labels. We present a general-purpose method to estimate the regret in a probabilistic classification task. We use our measure to show that regret is often higher for certain groups in the dataset and discuss potential applications of regret. We demonstrate how estimating regret can be used to promote safety in real-world applications by abstention and data collection.

For two causal structures with the same set of visible variables, one is said to observationally dominate the other if the set of distributions over the visible variables realizable by the first contains the set of distributions over the visible variables realizable by the second. Knowing such dominance relations is useful for adjudicating between these structures given observational data. Here, we consider the problem of determining the partial order of equivalence classes of causal structures with latent variables relative to observational dominance. We provide a complete characterization of the dominance order in the case of three visible variables, and a partial characterization in the case of four visible variables. Our techniques also help to identify which observational equivalence classes have a set of realizable distributions that is characterized by nontrivial inequality constraints, analogous to Bell inequalities and instrumental inequalities. We find evidence that as one increases the number of visible variables, the equivalence classes satisfying nontrivial inequality constraints become ubiquitous. (Because such classes are the ones for which there can be a difference in the distributions that are quantumly and classically realizable, this implies that the potential for quantum-classical gaps is also ubiquitous.) Furthermore, we find evidence that constraint-based causal discovery algorithms that rely solely on conditional independence constraints have a significantly weaker distinguishing power among observational equivalence classes than algorithms that go beyond these (i.e., algorithms that also leverage nested Markov constraints and inequality constraints).