User Simulation

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs) has renewed interest in agent-based modeling (ABM). However, current LLM-based ABM research faces several key challenges: modeling evolving agent-environment interactions, enabling flexible counterfactual reasoning, and automating simulation workflows for scientific research. In this paper, we propose Eco3S, a socio-economic system simulation framework for economic research and policy analysis that addresses these challenges through three key mechanisms: (1) Co-evolving Environment Design, a bidirectional feedback loop where agents and the environment co-evolve, producing realistic emergent behaviors; (2) Structural Causal Simulation, a structural causal model (SCM)-inspired counterfactual mechanism that allows flexible interventions for diverse causal inference tasks; (3) Simulation-Analysis-Refinement Paradigm, a self-corrective mechanism that iteratively refines experimental designs based on prior simulation results. Experiments on diverse economic scenarios confirm \textit{Eco3S}'s effectiveness in replicating multiple established economic studies (canal decay, origins of governance, and information propagation) and phenomena across domains. Additional results further demonstrate its scalability and generalizability, highlighting the framework's potential for rigorous economic research and policy-making.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as synthetic users, stand-ins for human respondents whose simulated answers feed product, policy, and market decisions. We ask when this substitution is valid and when it fails, and package the answer as an evaluation framework for intelligent synthetic-user systems. A single protocol, run across four models spanning two families and an 8B-to-frontier capability range, is applied to two independent domains of real human-response data: U.S. general social attitudes (General Social Survey) and cross-cultural values (World Values Survey). Every model is benchmarked against a suite of non-LLM baselines fit on held-out human data. Under demographic prompting and the survey-simulation protocols we test, two failures replicate across both domains, all four models, and both families. First, at the individual level no LLM beats even the strongest baseline; on cross-cultural values every model falls well below it, and the gap survives distance-aware and proper scoring. Second, models systematically over-determine demographics, treating identity as far more predictive of attitudes than it is among real people, a distortion present for nearly every question-group combination and robust to a coding-invariant measure. Neither failure is remedied by a larger, more capable model. A decision-impact analysis shows why this matters in practice: on a segment-targeting task the models inflate between-segment gaps two to fourfold, would direct a team to the wrong segment in half of U.S. and most cross-cultural cases, and manufacture segment splits that do not exist in real people. We make the cross-domain benchmark and the evaluation framework available on request, so that teams can determine in advance when synthetic-user evidence is safe for decision support and when it is not.

The difficulty of collective action remains a central challenge in the design of policies for multifamily residential redevelopment. Stakeholders continually adjust their decisions in response to evolving negotiation contexts and the reactions of others, meaning that when a policy intervenes and which stakeholders it targets can substantially reshape collective outcomes. Assessing these adaptive responses ex ante remains difficult because existing simulation models often rely on predefined behavioral rules. Here, we present CoRenew, an open-source platform that uses LLM-based agents to simulate negotiations among multiple stakeholders and evaluate the effects of alternative policy combinations. Integrating open source geographic and demographic data, the platform can generate synthetic residents, simulate negotiation dynamics under alternative policy settings and compares policy performance across competing objectives. It supports both numerical and semantic policy inputs and includes built-in tools for visualization and result export. We validate its behavioral realism against survey responses from 324 residents and a nine-month observed negotiation process from a real redevelopment case. With its modular and adaptable architecture, CoRenew can be used to assess policies across different institutional and cultural contexts.

Large language models are increasingly used as social simulators, including as synthetic survey respondents. Most evaluations ask whether simulated outcomes resemble human outcomes. We argue that this is necessary but too weak: a simulator can match the final answer while using the wrong rationale-derived reason pattern. We study this problem through a 94-person sunscreen concept test in which each respondent evaluated three product concepts and wrote open-ended rationales. We map those rationales into signed reason states $Z$, where positive signs support adoption and negative signs block it. This gives a practical audit: holding respondent descriptors $D$, category context $K$, and concept treatment $X$ fixed, do human rationale-derived reasons help predict behavior $Y$, and can an LLM simulate the same reason state without seeing the human rationale or outcome? Human rationale-derived reasons substantially improve held-out prediction of purchase intent. LLM-simulated reasons are more brittle: they often sound plausible, but frequently echo the concept board rather than recover the respondent's acceptance or rejection path. The paper contributes an evaluation framework for social simulators. Reason states do not identify natural causal effects by themselves, but they provide an interpretable test of whether a simulator's stated reasons align with human evidence.

Recent studies use Large language models (LLMs) to simulate human opinions and decisions by prompting models with demographic, attitudinal, or persona-based descriptions. Yet such simulations rarely model the practical, cognitive, or social frictions that shape how people respond to policy interventions. Perceived transaction cost (PTC) provides a useful lens for modeling the practical frictions that shape policy responses, such as information burden, administrative effort, coordination demands, and perceived uncertainty. We use this lens to develop a friction-aware persona modeling approach for LLM-based simulation. In the context of energy-efficient renovation (EER), tenants are represented not only by who they are demographically, but by how they perceive the costs, benefits, barriers, and uncertainties associated with proposed renovation plans. Using survey data collected from 1,068 citizens in the Netherlands, comprising approximately 40,548 survey question and answer pairs, we compare prompt-only and fine-tuned settings across GPT-3.5-turbo, Ministral-8B-Instruct, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, and evaluate supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for local open-weight models. Results show that incorporating PTC-based personas and reasoning consistently improves model performance across both prompt-only and fine-tuned settings, suggesting that PTC-based persona design provides a useful bridge between institutional policy theory and interpretable LLM-based policy simulation. Code is available at https://github.com/xiaweijie1996/socialagent.

Communication allows large language model agents to pool evidence, but it also creates paths along which an erroneous claim can spread. We formulate a correction-aware network model that tracks susceptible, exposed, infectious, and corrected agents and derive its early-invasion condition for heterogeneous communication networks. We then couple this propagation model to an analytic majority-vote benchmark in which a clean-task reliability target imposes a minimum connectivity requirement. Under fixed exposure per communication edge, reliability and error control impose opposing graph constraints. We characterize when their intersection is empty and when it contains an intermediate connectivity range, and identify regular graphs that attain the smallest invasion factor within the reliable graph class when such graphs exist. Under a fixed sender budget, the homogeneous first-order threshold is independent of network density, showing that the communication-budget convention determines whether added edges increase early propagation risk. Finite-network simulations on 21,000 trajectories illustrate these directional predictions. A controlled grok-4.3 experiment then evaluates three six-node topologies on 36 new closed-world tasks, with a balanced 12-task subset continued to full cascades. Mean first-generation offspring increased from 0.667 to 1.333 and 1.667 as degree increased from 2 to 4 and 5, while the adoption fraction among exposed neighbours remained 0.333. Mean non-seed erroneous adoption in the full-cascade subset was 0.200, 0.333, and 0.333. Together, these results provide a tractable basis for selecting connectivity under explicit reliability and propagation constraints.

Smartphone personal assistants reason over longitudinal personal data, yet evaluating them requires context-rich evaluation data whose correct answers are known, and real device traces are too privacy-sensitive to share. To address this challenge, we present SenWorld, a physically grounded, deterministic, event-sourced digital-twin simulation that generates such data with ground truth fixed by construction. In SenWorld, personas live through a full day in a world built from real map, weather, holiday, and network data; every observable signal is archived in full-system snapshots; and each evaluation case is labeled by a pointer to an existing record rather than by post-hoc annotation or a large language model (LLM) judge. We evaluate this method with 16 personas in Beijing. The generated data closely matches the held-out real-user benchmark in category distribution (Jensen--Shannon divergence (JSD) 0.070) and in the daily rhythm of communication records (JSD below 0.1), though generated records remain shorter than real ones. Without scripted interaction, personas form a fully reciprocated dialogue subgraph and differentiated behavioral repertoires. Projected into 717 evaluation cases, the generated data exposes 78 failures in a production smartphone assistant, concentrating on call and Short Message Service (SMS) records while contacts, schedules, and alarms never fail. The snapshot pointer confirms each failure as an assistant-side retrieval error, with no LLM judge involved. Overall, SenWorld offers a privacy-safe, reproducible, and distribution-checked path to evaluation data whose labels are fixed by construction.

Agent-based models (ABMs) rely on simple, explicit and reproducible rules for individual decision making, while complex collective behavior emerges from interactions among agents. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) make it tempting to replace, enrich, or perturb these rules with LLM-based agentic capabilities. However, this raises a methodological question: how does introducing LLM-driven decisions affect the reliability, computational cost, and behavior of ABM simulations? We investigate this for Mesa ABM models, a popular Python library for ABMs, analyzed by statistical model checking. Building on Mesa's integration with the statistical model checker MultiVeStA, we extend the classical Schelling segregation model with a hybrid population: ordinary agents classify neighbors using the standard symbolic rule, while one agent delegates this task to an LLM through tool calls. The LLM-enabled agent receives natural-language descriptions of neighboring agents and invokes tools that increment counters of similar/different neighbors; these counters determine its happiness according to the original Schelling dynamics. This provides a minimal but controlled setting where the semantic, operational, and computational behavior of LLM-based decisions can be studied inside an otherwise standard ABM. We report preliminary experiments with locally served LLMs of different sizes, showing that smaller models may fail simple semantic classification experiments or become operationally unusable during repeated tool-call generation, while larger tested models pass these preliminary checks. We discuss how statistical model checking can estimate classical ABM observables and quantify the impact of introducing agentic LLM components into simulation models.

This work addresses the need for engineering-grounded evaluation of implement-ed tariff mechanisms in distribution-level energy systems. A digital twin-based method is proposed for assessing local collective tariffs under realistic behavioral and infrastructural conditions. The approach integrates agent-based modeling of household consumption and generation, virtual aggregation through a shared metering abstraction, and explicit representation of tariff logic within a unified simulation environment. The method is demonstrated through its application to the Danish Local Collective Tariff across representative residential energy community configurations, including scenarios with photovoltaic generation, battery storage, and electric vehicle charging. Results indicate that aggregation of heterogeneous demand profiles reduces peak coincidence and enables more efficient allocation of tariff components, leading to measurable cost reductions at the community level. At the same time, the outcomes reveal sensitivity to the temporal alignment of consumption and generation, influencing the degree of cost neutrality across participants. The findings illustrate how digital twin-based evaluation can support systematic assessment of tariff mechanisms by capturing the interaction between infrastructure, user behavior, and regulatory design. The proposed approach provides a basis for analyzing and comparing tariff structures in distribution-level energy systems beyond the specific case considered.

Large language model (LLM) agents offer a generative approach to simulating human behavior under conditions that may have few or no direct historical analogues, a common challenge in disaster and infrastructure-disruption planning. However, this generative capacity creates a validity problem: individually plausible agent reasoning may fail to reproduce empirical population behavior. We evaluate whether empirical grounding improves the statistical realism of LLM-agent simulations during disruptions. Specifically, we develop an empirically grounded LLM-agent framework that embeds demographic profiles from the American Community Survey, baseline routines from the American Time Use Survey, and urban spatial context into agent initialization, memory, decision prompts, and activity execution. An independent household survey conducted during the July 2024 Philadelphia heatwave is reserved as an external validation benchmark. Compared with an ungrounded LLM-agent baseline, the grounded model improved reconstruction of normal daily routines, increasing mean correlation with empirical activity profiles from 0.528 to 0.912 and reducing mean squared error from 0.066 to 0.008. Under heatwave conditions, the grounded model better reproduced survey-derived activity profiles, increasing mean correlation from 0.349 to 0.836 and reducing mean squared error from 0.098 to 0.012. The grounded model captured 46.4% of observed heatwave response amplitude, compared with 20.6% for the ungrounded baseline. These findings show that empirical grounding can make LLM agents more statistically credible simulators of population behavior while revealing remaining gaps in modeling human adaptation during disruptions.

This paper introduces EvolvingWorld, a framework and benchmark for character and world co-evolution in interactive literary worlds. Existing systems either treat interactive literary simulation as static persona imitation or isolated scene generation, failing to capture how characters and worlds evolve together over time. To address this, EvolvingWorld models literary simulation as a long-horizon process where characters interact, scenes progress, and character and world states are persistently updated. Unlike prior systems relying on fixed schemas, EvolvingWorld adopts an open-schema framework to support simulation across diverse literary worlds. The framework consists of two coupled modules: a Character Agent for multi-character role-play and persistent profile evolution, and an LLM-based World Model for global and location/entity-level state maintenance and scene progression. Based on this architecture, we formulate 7 trainable tasks for scene initialization, interaction generation, and state update. We construct a dataset from 57 books, producing 138,596 supervised training samples and 222 snapshots for testing. Furthermore, we introduce a trajectory-level LLM-as-Judge evaluation protocol spanning 10 dimensions and 20 metrics. Experiments show that EvolvingWorld can improve long-horizon simulation by effectively maintaining persistent, coherent character and world development.

Simulating societies of many large language model (LLM) agents is expensive, yet the questions asked of such simulations are usually macroscopic: phase behaviour, stylised facts, and scaling with the number of agents $N$, not the cognition of any single agent. We turn a statistical-physics observation into a method: replace each LLM agent by a low-parameter model fitted from a few hundred to a few thousand cheap queries, then run the society at any $N$ on a laptop. Whether this works is decided before the simulation runs, chiefly by what each agent perceives. We introduce an [interaction order x memory] taxonomy that maps perception and memory to an effective theory and a predicted $N$-trend of the surrogate error. We validate it on a faithful reimplementation of the LLM macroeconomy EconAgent and seven further named LLM simulations, with agent decisions cloned from genuine LLM elicitations (primarily DeepSeek) for a few dollars; the predicted error trends hold cell by cell, and the two refuted predictions, both on a strongly saturating response and traced to its curvature, are themselves matched quantitatively by the theory with no free parameters.

Training agents that generalize to unseen, stateful environments requires a massive dataset of state-changing trajectories covering a vast and diverse set of APIs. However, scaling this broad supervision is severely bottlenecked by the immense effort required to implement and populate fully-executable environments across a broad spectrum of domains. To bypass this barrier, we introduce a data generation pipeline that decouples data synthesis from environment construction by leveraging LLMs as digital world models. Starting from only a list of broad domain names, our automated pipeline synthesizes diverse APIs and tasks. To produce trajectories, a teacher agent iteratively solves these tasks while an LLM simulator dynamically tracks state and provides coherent API responses on-the-fly. Finally, an automated judge filters the trajectories for quality. Fine-tuning on our broad synthetic dataset yields significant performance gains on AppWorld and OfficeBench, two challenging stateful benchmarks featuring environments completely unseen during training. These results establish our LLM world model-based synthesis approach as a highly scalable path for training generalizable, stateful API-calling agents.

The formation of political coalitions is a complex negotiation driven by both concrete policy objectives and deep-seated ideological convictions. While Large Language Models (LLMs) open new avenues for computational political science, the neutrality and helpfulness biases instilled by Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) prevent them from sustaining steadfast partisan behaviour. We present a multi-agent framework that reconciles factual grounding with ideological alignment by combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG): DPO instils aggressive party-specific personas, while a per-party RAG pipeline keeps each agent bounded to its official manifesto. We operationalize the framework on the 2019 Flemish election, deploying the partisan agents in a hub-and-spoke negotiation arbitrated by a formateur. To make the emergent negotiation interpretable, we introduce a Multi-Layered Information Lineage Topology (MILT) that traces every clause in the final agreement back to its manifesto origin and classifies it into five provenance states, a Coalition Influence Score (CIS) that aggregates these traceable contributions to identify which party shaped the agreement, and a real-world grounding pass that benchmarks each simulated provision against the historically adopted coalition agreement. Across three independent simulations the framework yields a stable winner and ranking (N-VA ahead of CD&V and Open Vld), and manifesto-anchored lineage reliably predicts real-world materialization whereas hallucinated content does not. The result is a transparent, scalable testbed for the ex-ante exploration of party compatibility and formateur-mediated compromise.

LLM-based agents are increasingly deployed in multi-agent environments whose incentives can shape their behavior. We introduce The Energy Society, a minimal survival economy for studying how competitive and cooperative incentives affect emergent behavior when inference cost is directly tied to survival: Agents spend energy based on model size when generating tokens, regain energy by completing jobs or receiving donations, and deactivate if their energy reaches zero. We compare competitive and cooperative objectives against a baseline setting and several control variants. Across experiments, larger models consistently consume the most energy and spend more energy than they gain, even in those settings where token cost is not size-dependent. Cooperative incentives substantially alter behavior: agents donate to reactivate others, sometimes at the cost of their own survival, and job allocation changes. Ablations reveal that allowing agents to recommend actions to each other supports coordination and ambitious job selection, while memory helps agents calibrate risk from past outcomes. Agents rarely choose direct sabotage, but show more subtle signs of self-serving behavior in the competitive setting. The Energy Society is a compact testbed for studying the interaction between token costs and group incentives under a survival pressure. Source code is available at https://github.com/LucasBergholdt/EnergySociety

This book chapter covers the evolution of social simulation from classical agent-based models, in which agents interact according to explicitly defined behavioral rules, to AI-enhanced simulations based on Large Language Models and, ultimately, Social Digital Twins: high-fidelity, data-driven representations of real-world socio-technical systems. Along this trajectory, we discuss the main methodological foundations, applications, advantages, and limitations of each paradigm, highlighting the progressive shift from abstract models designed to investigate general social mechanisms toward increasingly realistic computational representations of specific social systems.

Decision support systems (DSS) increasingly run retention what-if analysis on synthetic customer populations, because privacy constraints preclude unrestricted use of real data. Such a system is trustworthy only if the synthetic data lead managers to the same decisions as the real data would; yet prevailing criteria certify distributional similarity, not decision alignment, so a synthetic population can match every marginal distribution while still steering a marketing team toward the wrong campaigns. We close this decision-alignment gap with three contributions: strategy simulation fidelity (SSF), a criterion measuring how often the synthetic population yields the same go/no-go campaign decision as the real population; PolicySynth, a DSS framework whose generator is conditioned on the production churn scorer to align decision-relevant structure; and a three-axis reporting standard of decision alignment, membership-inference resistance, and novel-record rate as the minimum deployment quality gate. On a telecommunications churn corpus and a banking acquisition corpus, PolicySynth attains a mean SSF of 0.923 and 0.960, with seed-to-seed variance roughly ten times tighter than CTGAN on telecommunications and 2.5 times on banking. This stability is the deployable property: go/no-go recommendations shift by at most 1.2 percentage points between monthly retraining cycles, against 11.5 for CTGAN, a reversed recommendation on one campaign in nine. A bootstrap baseline matches PolicySynth on SSF yet copies real records verbatim and fails membership inference, evidence that no single axis suffices. PolicySynth reliably supports directional go/no-go screening; its ROI estimates diverge from real outcomes by 70 to 78% and require the volume correction we document.

We present Anamnesis, an interactive system for demographically controllable survey simulation using large language models. Open-source and designed for non-technical users/researchers, Anamnesis enables the prototyping and stress-testing of survey instruments on virtual populations rather than real human subjects. The platform operationalizes the recently introduced Anthology and Alterity frameworks, which use structured narrative backstories to condition model responses, within a unified web interface. It supports open-ended generation, probabilistic demographic resampling, and multimodal (image and audio) surveys. We evaluate the system through two case studies: (1) replicating segments of Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel (ATP) on political typology and biomedical issues and (2) emulating human preference in the New Yorker Caption Contest. In both cases, Anamnesis produces opinion distributions that more closely match real-world survey data than standard persona-prompting baselines, offering a transparent, reproducible, and open-source alternative to proprietary simulation services.

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) as multi-turn conversational partners requires probing capabilities that single-turn benchmarks miss: persona consistency, evolving intent tracking, emotional dynamics, and goal completion. We introduce EYT-Bench, a human-centered benchmark built around a three-party decoupled design: a persona-grounded user simulator, a target model that separates intent perception from response generation, and an independent third-party LLM judge with optional multi-judge ensembling. Personas are sampled from public human-curated corpora, Nemotron-Personas-USA and PersonaMem-v2, rather than synthesized, reducing LLM-induced persona bias. EYT-Bench also introduces two trajectory-level metrics: embedding-based intent drift and final-intent completion rate (FICR), inspired by tau-bench. In a 17-target x 200-dialogue evaluation, EYT-Bench reveals four findings: (i) state-of-the-art closed- and open-source models are statistically close on subjective dimensions (empathy / persona / anthropomorphism vary within <= 0.3), but differ by up to 9x on objective intent tracking; (ii) reasoning ("thinking on") sharply improves objective tracking on long-context personas (+0.47-0.50 latent-intent accuracy on Gemma-4) while leaving subjective scores nearly unchanged; (iii) persona format dominates trajectory spread, with FICR saturating above 0.95 on Nemotron-USA but spreading from 0.53 to 0.88 on PersonaMem-v2; and (iv) the warm-up effect is robust on 16/17 models (one outlier, GPT-5.5, reverses the effect), with stable rankings across alpha in [0.05, 0.15]. A cross-judge ablation using deepseek-v4-pro confirms that target rankings and final-intent satisfaction are preserved across judges.

Preparing for job interviews is important for securing desired positions, yet realistic practice remains difficult to access: real interviews are infrequent, expert mock coaching is costly, and self-practice offers neither adaptive dialogue nor structured assessment. Existing systems typically address only parts of this need through fixed question sequences, limited communication channels, or feedback with little supporting evidence. We present PolyInterview, an LLM-based platform for immersive mock interview practice with comprehensive multimodal assessment. PolyInterview uses the target job description and CV to generate questions tailored to the role and candidate, conducts multi-turn spoken interviews with a lip-synced digital human interviewer that asks answer-aware follow-up questions, and evaluates response content, vocal delivery, and non-verbal behavior. Four parallel evaluators produce 13 behavior-level features that are aggregated into 10 assessment aspects and two competency tracks. Guided by the KSA and STAR frameworks, the report links each score to behavioral evidence and actionable recommendations. PolyInterview is publicly accessible. Its current all-account snapshot contains 101 accounts, 1,564 interview sessions, 7,665 generated questions, and 1,422 five-stage question sets. Generated questions are more closely aligned with their matched job description than with cross-role job descriptions in 93.7% of sessions. An evaluation by ten experts found strong question plans and actionable feedback.

Self-interested agents, left unconstrained, tend toward defection in repeated social dilemmas, causing cooperative gains from trade to collapse. This paper investigates what formal mechanisms, layered on top of unrestricted communication, are sufficient for a society of such agents to maintain market stability, and how resilient those mechanisms are to adversarial attack. We instantiate the research question as a multi-agent marketplace simulation where 18 LLM agents (DeepSeek-V3) with complementary production specialties must trade within a constrained social network to obtain utility. We conduct two experimental phases: (1) a mechanism comparison across eight conditions under progressive troll injection over 200 rounds, identifying Mediation as the top-performing mechanism; and (2) adversarial red-teaming of Mediation using iteratively prompt-optimised LLM-driven trolls, finding that the best attack (v6) reduces honest-agent utility by 13.3% but cannot collapse the market. Mediation enables recovery even under sustained adversarial pressure. We define adversarial robustness as a mechanism's ability to sustain positive honest-agent utility under optimised attack, and find that Mediation is robust: it can be bent but not broken.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have been utilized in various applications of computational social science and provide the possibility to integrate such models into agent-based modeling to explore the cognitive processes. However, how specific cognitive modules drive individual decisions and macro-level opinion dynamics remains unclear. Therefore, this study introduces a framework that integrates an LLM (Qwen3-8B) into agent-based modeling to investigate this problem, using vaccination opinion dynamics as a case study. We utilize this framework to simulate opinion dynamics among agents with heterogeneous profiles and social networks, evaluating scenarios by enabling different cognitive modules: a memory module and a prompt diversity module. The simulation results reveal that different cognitive modules have opposite impacts on our emergent opinion. Furthermore, the framework reproduces the non-linear behavior patterns of social influence observed in existing research, demonstrating our framework's validity and potential to reach the level 3 validation of agent-based models.

Realistic and diverse traffic simulation is essential to autonomous driving development. Yet prevailing benchmarks predominantly reward realism, and recent methods have optimized accordingly, leaving diversity underexplored. We introduce \textbf{Flow-ERD}, a multi-agent simulator that pursues realism and diversity jointly. Its backbone, \textbf{Agent-Type Aware Flow Matching} (AFM), couples flow matching's multi-modal expressiveness with type-specific kinematic execution. It preserves fine-grained diversity while keeping motions consistent with each agent type. A second stage, \textbf{Entropy-Regularized Distillation} (ERD), fine-tunes the closed-loop rollout distribution with an entropy-regularized reverse-KL objective. This mitigates covariate shift while explicitly preventing collapse onto high-density modes. We evaluate Flow-ERD with a log-free diversity metric alongside standard realism scores. Flow-ERD ranks first on the WOSAC test benchmark and dominates the realism--diversity Pareto front among reproducible baselines. Our project page is available \href{https://seulbinhwang.github.io/flow-erd-project-page/}{here}.

Agent-based modeling (ABM) has the capability to model millions of individuals and their interactions, which is useful for policy making. However, ABMs have traditionally relied on static prior, which prevents the models from adapting to real-time changes. Our research provides a novel approach to addressing this information gap. Large language models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to predict human decision-making. Here, we introduce a scalable Hybrid Agent-based and Language-driven Epidemic (HALE) modeling framework that leverages LLMs to predict human decision-making in an ABM simulation. As a proof-of-concept, we use HALE to simulate COVID-19 and its effects in Salt Lake County, UT.

Putnam's Social Capital Theory is a foundational framework for collective action and community prosperity. However, traditional empirical methods face practical limits on control and replication. Meanwhile, LLM-based social simulations are typically behavior-driven and lack theory-aligned environments for modeling Putnam's core propositions. To address these gaps, we introduce SocaSim, an LLM-based multi-agent simulation framework to study Putnam's Social Capital Theory from theoretical blueprint to simulated reality. Specifically, we build an environment integrating social network evolution, trust dynamics, and norm propagation, where agents engage in repeated collective-action experiments, and then apply the three dimensions to analyze adaptation challenges in smart elderly care. Our simulations reproduce Putnam's macro-level patterns and exhibit strong human-agent alignment at the group level. Unlike traditional methods, SocaSim traces micro-level causal pathways of social network, trust, and norms via round-by-round simulations and counterfactual interventions, enabling process-level interpretability. Taken together, these capabilities establish a research paradigm that leverages LLM agents to bridge social science and computer science.

LLM-agent simulations make natural-language social scenarios easy to instantiate, but their outputs can be overread as predictions and are often difficult to compare with explicit social dynamics. We present AgoraSim, a hybrid agent-based modeling framework for scenario-oriented social reaction analysis. AgoraSim resolves textual or multimodal artifacts into editable ABM configurations, runs ratio-controlled populations that mix LLM, vision-language, custom-endpoint, random, and classical agents, and compares the same scenario against matched classical reference dynamics. All agents emit a shared structured decision object, enabling common action spaces, interaction protocols, metrics, and audit records. Exposed through a local UI, Python SDK/CLI, and REST API, AgoraSim helps users inspect scenario trajectories, compare modeling assumptions, and identify cases that warrant empirical validation.

Dilution refrigerators are the enabling infrastructure of superconducting quantum computers, yet their fault diagnosis is still dominated by threshold alarms that report that something is wrong, not what. We present Onnes, a physics-grounded digital-twin simulator of a dilution refrigerator (a forward physics model with a learned real-fridge noise fingerprint) that drives a live multi-agent LLM operations layer, and use it for a controlled head-to-head between a zero-shot LLM agent panel and a supervised ML classifier on cryogenic fault diagnosis. The twin couples a real dilution-cooling floor, a noise-and-correlation fingerprint learned from real BlueFors logs, and six physics-grounded fault classes, three engineered to overlap on temperature but separate on flow and pressure. Across a 1000-turn evaluation the zero-shot panel shows no significant difference from the classifier on detection but trails on classification, its errors concentrating on the confusable faults. Curated contrastive few-shot demonstrations and self-consistency voting then raise classification accuracy from 0.685 to 0.990, matching the supervised classifier (0.985) with no parameter updates and six labeled demonstrations; an ablation attributes the gain almost entirely to the demonstrations. Run as a continuous monitor across a nine-run fault-by-seed sweep, the agent catches every developing fault within one poll interval, and a confidence gate suppresses pre-onset false alarms whose rate is backend-dependent. As a first sim-to-real check, a detector trained purely on real BlueFors telemetry posts a real-hardware false-alarm rate of 6.4% and 100% recall on physics faults injected onto real held-out windows. All numbers are drawn verbatim from released run logs.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) evolve into autonomous agents, traditional static evaluation fails to capture multi-step decision-making. We introduce AgenticAI-Supervisor, an API and UI-driven RL Gym environment that decouples environment creation from scalable execution. By moving to verifiable execution outcomes, the platform generates high-fidelity traces and applies multi-dimensional reward shaping. Critically, our framework mitigates reward hacking through rigorous internal state validation and testing. This work provides a first look at our platform's core capabilities through a Customer Support Agent case study demonstrating a consistent closed-loop feedback for model optimization. Future work will focus on advanced features such as Computer Use, Tool Use, automated "stumping", and edge-case generation.

Modern data-driven marketing relies on large amounts of consumer data, yet collecting such data can be costly, time-consuming, and difficult to scale. This research examines whether large language models (LLMs) can be used to generate synthetic consumer data for projective techniques, a set of methods designed to elicit consumer associations, emotions, wants, and needs. We test LLM-generated responses across multiple projective tasks, LLMs, prompting strategies, and temperature settings, and compare them with human responses from a primary research study on perceptions of city tourism destinations. Human and LLM responses were analyzed using linguistic measures, diversity and concentration metrics, topic models, and top-term analyses. The results show substantial overlap between human and LLM responses in broad topics and associations, but also important differences in style, linguistic structure, and the way diversity is generated. Recommendations are given on how to best utilize LLMs for generating synthetic consumer data, how model and prompt choices shape response quality, and on recognizing the limitations of LLM synthetic consumer data generation.

The rapid integration of large language model-based agents into recommender systems has driven a shift from static, ranking-based pipelines toward autonomous and interactive systems that can reason, plan, and act. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of this emerging landscape by introducing a unified taxonomy grounded in the level of autonomy and three core paradigms of agentic recommender systems: agent-assisted recommendation, agent-as-recommender, and agent-as-user-simulator. The autonomy framework organizes existing methods along increasing capabilities in proactivity, context awareness, interaction flexibility, and adaptivity. Building on this framework, the survey analyzes how each paradigm adopts different agentic architectures and how agents enhance key components such as profiles, memory, tool use, workflows, and optimization mechanisms. We further examine evaluation methodologies for agentic recommendation, covering automated metrics, LLM-based judging, and simulation-based assessment, and discuss their limitations in capturing reasoning quality, user experience, and system behavior. Beyond existing evaluation protocols, we further discuss unresolved issues in evaluating agentic recommender systems, including trajectory-level assessment, agent contribution analysis, and calibration of user simulation. Lastly, the survey outlines open challenges in lifelong user modeling, contextual abstraction, multimodal alignment, controllability, trustworthiness, privacy, scalability, and efficiency. Together, these analyses establish a unified foundation for understanding the current progress of agentic recommender systems and highlight promising opportunities for developing more autonomous, reliable, and human-aligned recommendation agents.

Evaluating autonomous driving systems in closed-loop settings requires realistic and interactive simulation, yet existing simulators largely rely on log replay or rule-based agents, limiting behavioral diversity and long-tail coverage. We propose an agent-driven simulation framework in which surrounding road participants are controlled by instruction-following large language models through a structured action interface, enabling intentional and reactive behaviors while preserving physical plausibility. Furthermore, we introduce SemanticPlan, a benchmark of closed-loop planning in long-tail and semantically rich scenarios that augment real nuPlan scenes with multiple interactive agents following diverse language instructions. Evaluation results show that state-of-the-art planners still struggle to consistently achieve safe and effective task completion, suggesting that these long-tail scenarios remain challenging.

Urban mobility modeling faces challenges in representing decision-making in dynamic environments. Although Multi-Agent Systems are widely used, rule-based approaches rely on fixed heuristics that limit adaptive behavior. This work investigates the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) as decision-making components in multi-agent simulations. We propose a hybrid architecture that connects the GAMA platform to an external LLM-based module through an API, enabling agents to determine whether route replanning is necessary. Rather than replacing routing algorithms, the LLM serves as a decision layer that guides replanning behavior. The approach incorporates persistent memory, allowing past interactions to influence future decisions and promote behavioral consistency. We compare rule-based and LLM-assisted approaches across multiple road-blockage scenarios and population scales. Results indicate that LLM-enabled agents exhibit greater adaptability and contextual awareness, particularly in scenarios with higher route flexibility. Memory influences performance and behavioral consistency, with effects varying across configurations. Overall, LLMs serve as complementary cognitive layers that enrich behavioral representations in urban mobility simulations and hold potential for modeling complex decision-making in spatial multi-agent systems.

Large Language Model (LLM) social simulations are a promising research method, but they are not yet faithful enough to be adopted widely. In this work, we investigate whether the current scaling paradigm in language modeling is likely to close these gaps, or whether simulation fidelity is orthogonal to general capabilities and therefore deserving of more research attention. We use scaling laws to study the relationship between LLMs' compute scale, general capability benchmarks, and the fidelity of social simulation in three representative sub-domains: opinion modeling, behavioral simulation, and longitudinal forecasting. Surprisingly, we discover strong compute scaling in all three settings, using a suite of 85 transformer LLMs with the Qwen3 architecture pre-trained on the DCLM web text corpus under fixed-compute budgets from $10^{18}$ to $10^{20}$ FLOPs. Then we evaluate 35 larger and more capable open-weight models up to 70B parameters, allowing us to predict downstream accuracy from loss. This reveals that the majority of behavioral and opinion simulation tasks will rapidly improve with scale, particularly when they involve populations that are well-represented in English web corpora. Longitudinal forecasting and underrepresented opinions scale more slowly, especially when they are less correlated with general knowledge and reasoning benchmarks like MMLU. In behavior simulation, scaling fails to improve model calibration with human cognitive biases like risk aversion, as well as human heuristics like learning correlated rewards from related tasks. On these tasks, even fine-tuned models fail to noticeably scale up performance from 0.5B to 8B parameters. Taken together, we conclude that scale will improve social simulations in most settings, but outliers exist, and improvements will be less reliable in low-resource domains.

Motion planning algorithms should be evaluated in human-in-the-loop environments to ensure they produce safe and efficient behaviors during interactions. However, existing simulation platforms often rely on recorded datasets, lack dedicated interfaces for real-time human interaction, or remain weakly integrated with an autonomous driving ecosystem. Moreover, many human-in-the-loop simulators are computationally intensive by design, making them less suitable for rapid prototyping and flexible experimentation in early-stage autonomous driving research. To address these limitations, we present CommonRoad-Game, a lightweight human-in-the-loop simulation framework tightly integrated with the CommonRoad platform, focusing on the systematic testing of motion planners with human participation and the analysis of human driving behaviors in interactive scenarios. We introduce a multi-threaded architecture with a robust synchronization mechanism that aligns simulation time with wall-clock time, enabling deterministic and temporally consistent interaction between autonomous and human-driven vehicles. In addition, the framework provides a scenario generation module that records driving logs, allowing diverse and reproducible test cases to be constructed from human-in-the-loop experiments. Experimental results demonstrate that CommonRoad-Game achieves stable temporal synchronization, supports scalable multi-agent simulation, and seamlessly integrates CommonRoad-compatible motion planners to generate interactive driving scenarios. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/Yunfei-Bi8/CommonRoad-Game.

Generative Synthetic Populations (GSP) -- the convergence of population synthesis, agent-based modelling, and LLM agents -- are attracting growing interest for urban simulation and institutional communication research. Before any GSP instrument is used on a real population, a more basic question must be answered: does it respond to stimuli of known valence in an ordered, replicable, group-structured way? We call this controllability. We ask not whether a synthetic population tracks humans, but whether it tracks itself: whether the latent structure we impose on it is recovered in its own responses. This internal-validity question is logically prior to any claim about external validity, just as characterising an instrument's response function must precede using it to test a theory. We report SIVE (Synthetic Instrument Validation Experiment): a fictional municipality (Montelago) with 120 synthetic personas of known latent structure, exposed to seven conditions spanning strongly positive to strongly negative institutional communications about a water network. Seven pre-registered criteria, evaluated across a temperature sweep, jointly assess fidelity, stability, noise floor, specificity, sensitivity, and ordering. All seven pass at every temperature. A central finding turns a calibration failure into a diagnostic success: a message designed as "weakly positive" was identified by the instrument as functionally negative, traced to unresolved problems, uncertainty, and institutional passivity in its text; a redesigned version restored the expected ordering and interacts with agents' latent trust in unanticipated ways. A noise sub-experiment shows the instrument's intrinsic noise is roughly half the cross-agent estimate and stable across temperatures. Individual trajectories reveal coherent micro-dynamics that summary statistics obscure. Full data are available via an interactive explorer.

Mechanistic modeling via ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provides interpretable descriptions of complex dynamics and enables inference of underlying mechanisms, which is particularly valuable in clinical settings. However, in rare diseases, both the structure and parameters of the model are typically unknown, while individual-level data is scarce, noisy, heterogeneous, and subject to privacy constraints. In such settings, population-level summary statistics provide a practical privacy-preserving data representation, while capturing heterogeneity further requires modeling parameters as distributions rather than fixed values. Yet no existing method jointly discovers ODE structure and refines parameter distributions solely from summary statistics. We present AgentODE, an end-to-end framework that addresses this gap. An LLM proposes candidate ODE structures, while a tool-augmented inference agent iteratively refines parameter distributions through a diagnosis--update loop, operating on population-level summary statistics alone. We evaluate AgentODE on three benchmark problems across different fields and two clinical datasets, including the rare disease recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB), with only 231 observations across 46 patients. AgentODE recovers functionally consistent ODE structures across all settings, and experiments on RDEB demonstrates that in sparse and noisy data settings reasoning from summary statistics promotes mechanistically principled structure discovery, whereas baselines with individual-level data access recover implausible structures despite better predictive performance. AgentODE opens new possibilities for mechanistic modeling of rare diseases directly from population-level summary statistics, where data scarcity and privacy constraints have traditionally limited such analyses.

Interactive traffic simulation is a vital world model for autonomous driving. A central challenge in long-horizon simulation is modeling sustained multi-agent interactions, which is further exacerbated by dynamic token cardinality as agents continuously enter and exit the scene. In this work, we propose that the solution lies in the synergy between the architectural inductive biases and statistical priors of large-scale sequence models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs). Our probing experiments reveal that the transferability of attention mechanisms and the distributional consistency between motion tokens and natural language enable small-scale, heavily frozen LLMs to rapidly adapt to traffic modeling. Building on this insight, we introduce RosettaSim, a unified framework that projects scene topology, agent states, and spawning intents into a structured autoregressive stream with variable length, achieving both strong short-term accuracy and stable long-horizon simulation fidelity. Furthermore, evaluating extended rollouts presents yet another hurdle, as one-to-one agent correspondence inevitably fades over time. To address this, we introduce Retrieval-based Traffic Evaluation (RTE), which retrieves semantically similar real-world scenarios as context-aware reference anchors. Experiments on the Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge (WOSAC) demonstrate that RosettaSim achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-term simulation. Furthermore, RTE exhibits a stronger correlation with standard metrics ($r=0.83$) than existing approaches ($r=0.74$), indicating improved alignment with long-horizon simulation fidelity.

Climate governance processes involve complex interactions between heterogeneous citizens, advocacy groups, media actors, and political decision-makers. While agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study environmental policy and socio-ecological systems, many existing approaches focus either on institutional dynamics or individual behavioural mechanisms in isolation. This paper presents a modular multi-level agent-based architecture that integrates empirically grounded cognitive decision models with strategic institutional behaviour within a unified simulation framework. The architecture combines (i) motive-based individual decision-making operationalised through the HUMAT and MOA frameworks, (ii) socially embedded influence processes via demographic homophily networks, and (iii) institutional strategy modules for environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs), media agents, and politicians. Political decisions emerge from the aggregation of multiple signals, including expert input, public mobilisation, party alignment, and media framing. The model is designed to be empirically calibrated through synthetic populations derived from survey data and and institutional parameters informed through Living Lab stakeholder engagement, and to support scenario-based exploration of climate-relevant land-use governance processes. Rather than presenting empirical results, this paper focuses on the architectural design principles, modular structure, and integration logic of the model. We discuss how this multi-layered approach contributes to the modelling of democratic climate governance and outline pathways for generalization and future validation.

Consumer confidence is typically modeled as a persistent macroeconomic index, yet its movements arise from households that interpret economic information through heterogeneous constraints, exposures, prior beliefs, and attention. We introduce ConsumerSim, a generative Human--Environment response framework that reconstructs Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dynamics from a microdata-calibrated synthetic population, time-stamped macroeconomic, financial, policy, and news signals, survey-like response generation, post-stratified belief expansion, and behavioral inertia alignment. Across U.S., EU27, and Japanese official CCI target series, ConsumerSim ranks first among persistence, time-series, regression, and information-augmented baselines on the reported reconstruction metrics, with clear gains around high-salience shocks. Its reconstructed signal also improves short-horizon prediction of real activity, most consistently for housing outcomes. Mechanism analyses show that CCI movements concentrate around salient events; subgroup trajectories often align in direction while differing in magnitude; and signal sensitivity varies across income, homeownership, education, and political-alignment groups. Population-expansion and ablation results indicate that representative aggregation, situational signals, persona heterogeneity, and inertia are necessary for both accuracy and diagnosis. The findings support a behavioral view of consumer confidence as an interpretable Human--Environment response process rather than a purely aggregate time series.

Characterizing the scenario underlying an epidemic from its disease cascade is an important task in simulation analytics. We propose boundary degree, the count of an infected node's contacts in the underlying contact network that were not infected, as a per-node cascade feature for this task. Through systematic ablation on realistic social contact networks of Tennessee and Virginia, we show that boundary degree alone improves scenario identification accuracy by 19%. Edge features, whose importance was observed empirically by prior work, consistently improve accuracy across all settings; we provide theoretical grounding for this observation. These effects are complementary. We prove that certain epidemic scenarios are indistinguishable without boundary or edge information. Prior feature engineering approaches included aggregate boundary statistics, but these were not among the top-ranked feature groups; the per-node representation we propose reveals their importance clearly. Our results suggest that contact tracing applications should track contacts with non-infected individuals, not only transmissions.

Metric aggregation divergence (MAD) is the silent inconsistency that arises when distinct pipeline stages in an agent-based model coupled with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (ABM+MOEA) independently re-implement how an outcome metric is extracted from simulation trajectories. Unlike deliberate analytical choices, MAD operates at the level of pipeline architecture: each stage is internally coherent, and the inconsistency becomes visible only when cross-stage outputs are compared. Code inspection of EpidemiOptim, a JAIR-published epidemic policy toolbox, reveals three structurally independent aggregation paths in peer-reviewed code. A faithful replication of this structure produces champion disagreement in 64.2% of independent runs (n=500, 95% CI: [59.9%, 68.3%]). In a 300-seed policy-flip experiment, divergent aggregation causes the optimizer to recommend the wrong champion in 83% of replications, with a mean welfare gap of 2.19 units and a Gini inequality gap of 0.050 units. In a follow-up inference audit, 3 of 249 flipped seeds cross the significance boundary itself. A complementary enterprise follow-up produces the predicted null under near-commensurable rankings (rho = 0.991), while a public upstream rerun of the Lake Problem DPS workflow shows that the archived published-path recommendation reaches joint-threshold success 0.401 whereas a shared contract-path rule reaches 0.552. We introduce the metric contract - a single shared callable enforced at dispatch time across all pipeline stages - as the remedy. Framed as standard engineering discipline applied to the cross-stage metric interface, the contract eliminates divergence by construction with approximately 3% runtime overhead.

Generative world models hold immense promise as scalable simulators for autonomous systems, particularly for synthesizing rare but safety-critical multi-agent interactions, such as vehicle collisions. However, current evaluation paradigms index heavily on visual fidelity and semantic alignment, leaving a critical blind spot: they cannot reliably quantify whether generated dynamics actually obey the fundamental physical laws required for reliable simulation. Assessing this physical plausibility is inherently difficult due to a lack of physical metrics and the challenge of extracting metric-scale kinematics from uncalibrated video rollouts. To bridge this gap, we introduce CrashTwin, a physics-grounded evaluation framework designed to stress-test the physical trustworthiness of world models. CrashTwin couples a diverse dataset of multi-agent collision scenarios, comprising 25K controllable synthetic and 12K in-the-wild real-world collision sequences with a novel calibration-free reconstruction pipeline, enabling the recovery of 3D physical attributes directly from world model rollouts. We propose a diagnostic suite that systematically evaluates three dimensions: spatio-temporal consistency, momentum and kinetic energy conservation, and world-dynamics integrity. Extensive benchmarking of state-of-the-art models reveals a crucial insight: high perceptual quality frequently masks severe physical violations during complex interactions. By quantitatively exposing these failure modes, CrashTwin provides a vital diagnostic tool for developing physically grounded world models capable of reliable real-world simulation.

AI companions powered by large language models increasingly interact with cognition-developing users, including children and adolescents, creating risks that may accumulate over time. Existing safety evaluations largely rely on single-turn or short-session tests, which cannot capture risks that emerge only through prolonged interaction. To address this gap, we propose TSJ (Theater-Stage-Judge), a longitudinal framework combining persona-driven user simulation, dynamic psychological-state updating and retrospective evaluation. We evaluate six mainstream models across four developmental stages, twenty-four risk dimensions and three psychological-vulnerability personas, covering 12,960 simulated person-day interactions. TSJ shows that short-horizon testing systematically underestimates developmental risks, for which TSJ yields a stable risk estimate only after 140 turns within prolonged simulated relationships. Applying TSJ further identifies early childhood and emerging adulthood as the most vulnerable stages, with cognitive trust and emotional dependency as the weakest domains. TSJ provides a scalable methodology for longitudinal cognitive developmental risk evaluation in AI companion systems.

A world model predicts environment dynamics based on current observations and actions, serving as a core cognitive mechanism for reasoning and planning. In this work, we investigate how world modeling based on language models can further push the boundaries of general agents. (i) We first focus on building foundation models for agentic environment simulation. We introduce Qwen-AgentWorld-35B-A3B and Qwen-AgentWorld-397B-A17B, the first language world models capable of simulating agentic environments covering 7 domains via long chain-of-thought reasoning. Leveraging more than 10M environment interaction trajectories of 7 domains in real-world environments, we develop Qwen-AgentWorld through a three-stage training pipeline: CPT injects general-purpose world modeling capabilities from the state transition dynamics and augmented professional corpora, SFT activates next-state-prediction reasoning, and RL sharpens simulation fidelity through a tailored framework with hybrid rubric-and-rule rewards. To evaluate language world models, we present AgentWorldBench, a comprehensive benchmark constructed from real-world interactions of 5 frontier models on 9 established benchmarks. Empirical results demonstrate that Qwen-AgentWorld significantly outperforms existing frontier models. (ii) Beyond foundation models, we further investigate two complementary paradigms through which world modeling enhances general agents. First, as a decoupled environment simulator, Qwen-AgentWorld supports scalable and controllable simulation of thousands of real-world environments for agentic RL, yielding gains that surpass real-environment training alone. Second, as a unified agent foundation model, world-model training acts as a highly effective warm-up that improves downstream performance across 7 agentic benchmarks. Code: https://github.com/QwenLM/Qwen-AgentWorld

Fei Xiaotong's Differential Order Pattern characterizes rural society as egocentric and relationally graded, with cooperation attenuating over social distance. Although often treated as culturally specific, its mechanistic basis remains under-operationalized, and prior LLM-based simulations have mainly addressed short-term coordination rather than long-horizon social structure. We propose CAREB-MAS, a multi-agent framework grounded in Affect Control Theory, Social Identity Theory, and Durkheimian collective affect. Agents reason through an emotion-ethics-belief chain and maintain dynamically evolving egocentric identities, while the macro environment specifies only individual production, preference-based allocation, and minimal interaction protocols. Across long-horizon simulations, agents spontaneously reproduce five core Differential Order phenomena: stable labor specialization, guanxi-based economic ethics, relational decay of cooperation, emergent relational authority, and clan-based center-periphery stratification. These patterns shift with production structure from kin-centered integration toward greater functional interdependence. Extensive experiment results support interpreting Differential Order as a structure-sensitive emergent outcome of general social mechanisms, with LLM-based multi-agent simulation providing an interdisciplinary framework for studying social structure and change.

Evolutionary agent-based markets (ABMs) couple several mechanisms -- who reproduces, how price forms, how biased the agents are, how consensus propagates -- yet these are usually fixed by convention, so it is unclear which mechanism controls which emergent property. In a coevolving, endogenous-price simulator with 120 heterogeneous behavioral agents, we make four mechanisms pluggable and run matched 3x20-seed interventions. We find the levers are largely separable. (1) Selection -> diversity: a Quality-Diversity (QD/MAP-Elites) operator robustly raises strategy-mix entropy over truncation top-k (paired Delta entropy +0.27 to +1.12 bits; sign-test p<0.001; CIs exclude 0) and sustains more strategy cycling (strongest in crisis: Delta=+0.070, p=0.0004). (2) Selection does not improve realism: even a per-agent realism reward that provably steers selection does not raise 5-fact realism (Delta_5=-0.11,-0.08,+0.03; not significant). (3) Microstructure -> realism: enabling reflexive price feedback does raise realism (Delta_5=+0.13,+0.20,+0.20; crisis/bull p<0.05, all CIs positive). (4) Behavior -> fragility: amplifying behavioral bias raises a genomic fragility proxy (Delta=+10.5,+11.1,+14.4; bull p<0.001, all CIs positive) while leaving realism flat. The remaining mechanism -- consensus network topology -- shows no robust effect (honest null). The contribution is a decomposition: in these single-mechanism sweeps the mechanisms behave as approximately distinct control knobs over diversity, realism, and fragility.

Epidemiological models often rely on survey data to represent how individuals make health-related decisions, such as whether to vaccinate or adopt protective behaviors. However, repeated large-scale surveys are costly, time-consuming, and limited in the range of scenarios they can capture. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can generate synthetic survey responses that reproduce patterns observed in real populations. Using longitudinal data from the FluPaths surveys, we first identify groups associated with broadly positive or negative attitudes toward vaccination through clustering analysis. We then evaluate several LLMs using a cluster-informed prompting approach to generate synthetic survey responses across multiple epidemic waves. Across models, the synthetic data generally reproduce the distributions of demographic characteristics, vaccination-related beliefs, risk perceptions, and health behaviors observed in the survey data. However, they are less successful at capturing how these factors vary together within respondents. Some models reproduce group-level vaccination trends more reliably than others, although performance varies across waves. We also trained a classifier to distinguish real from synthetic records and found that the generated responses remained identifiable as synthetic. Overall, our findings suggest that LLM-generated survey data may provide a useful tool for exploratory data augmentation and we hope that it could support agent-based epidemic modeling approaches. However, the generated data should not be treated as a substitute for human survey data without further methodological improvements and validation.

Learning to simulate human users in interactive settings could advance the training of agent assistants, evaluation of personalization systems, research in the social sciences, and more. Existing approaches generally do so by training a large language model (LLM) to match a single ground truth response, either by maximizing the log probability or by using a similarity reward. We instead propose Turing-RL: a Turing-Test-based reinforcement learning approach for training user simulator models. Turing-RL uses a discriminative Turing reward with an LLM judge to score how indistinguishable a generated response is from the real user's given the user's history, and the user simulator LLM learns to produce responses indistinguishable from what the user could have said with such rewards. Across two different domains--conversational chat and Reddit forum discussion--we find that Turing-RL consistently outperforms baseline methods on both LLM and human evaluation metrics. Our study suggests that optimizing for indistinguishability, rather than response matching, is effective for learning user simulators.

Civil litigation is inherently a life-cycle process: what a lawyer drafts on day one constrains what unfolds at trial months later. Yet existing legal benchmarks evaluate isolated subtasks, and prior legal-agent simulators reinitialize each scenario from shared ground truth, leaving cross-stage causal dependencies unmodeled. We present LegalWorld, a life-cycle interactive environment that models Chinese civil litigation as a causally connected state chain of five stages (seven sub-scenarios), grounded in 75,309 paired Chinese civil judgments. We pair it with reusable infrastructure (local memory, global case memory, a Skill/Tool library) that keeps each dispute consistent across its full life cycle. Building on this environment, we construct LongJud-Bench to evaluate agent capability across all five connected stages. 18,992 ratings from 217 legal-background evaluators confirm that LegalWorld trajectories are procedurally faithful and role-consistent; and a capability-level cross-model evaluation reveals sharp divergences that aggregate scores cannot expose, with no single backbone leading across consultation, drafting, and courtroom advocacy. Detailed resources will be released publicly.

Traditional economic modeling typically follows a TOP-DOWN paradigm, neglecting individual diversity and the complexity of social interactions. To better capture the complexity of societal structure, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) employs a BOTTOM-UP solution by incorporating micro-level dynamics to generate macroeconomic phenomena. Reinforcement Learning further improves its decision-making ability through tailored reward signals. However, existing ABM systems struggle to generalize beyond predefined scenarios. Recognizing the potential of LLM-driven role-playing in perception and human-like decision-making, we propose SAMAS, which models individual agents with rich macroeconomic understanding embedded in LLMs and economic trajectories experienced in the passing simulation steps. By jointly modeling both macro-level structural patterns and micro-level dynamic behaviors, SAMAS achieves superior performance in volatility realism and turning point prediction.

People make decisions differently in strategic interactions. Some update beliefs like a Bayesian; others exhibit biases like motivated reasoning. Although creators of large language models use simulated humans for safety evaluations and training, they often fail to cover this breadth of human behavior. We argue that cognitive science and economics provide a convenient tool for doing so, making use of mathematical models of human decision-making. We propose an approach that we call Equation-to-Behavior Prompting for guiding large language models to match cognitive models, and evaluate this approach on persuasion games based on legal decision-making. We find that large models can approximate equation-based specifications -- Bayesian updating, affine distortion, motivated updating, and Grether's $α$-$β$ model -- using prompting, but small models fail to do so. However, training small models with reinforcement learning to adhere to mathematical rules, Equation-to-Behavior RL, reduces belief error by 26.5% in out-of-distribution parameterizations. We show that these simulations can help create diverse training environments; training small models to consider different kinds of decision-makers improves average belief change by 2.5%--12% over Bayesian-only training, even when persuading GPT-5-mini. Our work could improve human simulations for training and evaluation in increasingly realistic settings, and could also enable novel research into more complicated mathematical models of human decision-making.

LLM-as-user-simulation has become core infrastructure for conversational AI: agent benchmarks (tau-bench), training pipelines, and a growing body of fidelity studies all rely on LLMs role-playing the human side of dialogue. Existing frameworks measure communicative fidelity -- whether simulators talk like humans -- against ground truth from paid participants role-playing assigned goals. We argue this has a structural blind spot: when the goal is assigned, the user's willingness is exogenous, so no framework can test whether simulators make decisions like real users whose motivation is endogenous, latent, and decaying. We introduce decision fidelity -- whether a simulated population reproduces the decision-state dynamics of real users facing real, consequential choices -- and measure it on a unique testbed: 2,790 production conversations between an LLM sales agent and real customers, including 793 with verified payment outcomes. Using a teacher-forced probe protocol that holds context and instrument fixed, we find a systematic, outcome-correlated failure we call the disengagement deficit: simulators reproduce eventual buyers almost exactly (depth bias +0.09) but inflate eventual non-buyers toward the purchase frame (depth bias +0.40; d=0.38, p<0.001), halving expressed resistance (25.1% to 13.5%) and nearly doubling deliberation (21.9% to 40.1%) while fabricating no purchases. The deficit replicates across model families (DeepSeek: d=0.41, p=0.002) and resists the obvious fix: instructing the simulator that it may disengage cuts marginal bias five-fold but barely moves the outcome-conditioned contrast (d=0.34, p=0.008). Real non-buyers say "not now" and stop; simulated non-buyers ask about price. Evaluating or training sales and persuasion agents against such simulators overstates funnel progress exactly where it matters most -- the customers who walk away.

Evaluating the decision-making capabilities of large language models (LLMs) is a growing research priority, yet existing benchmarks focus on isolated cognitive tasks such as reasoning, knowledge retrieval, and economic rationality in stylized settings. These evaluations overlook the defining challenge of real executive decision-making: integrating conflicting recommendations from specialized stakeholders under information asymmetry, organizational constraints, and temporal dependencies. We introduce \textsc{CEO-Bench}, a multi-agent benchmark that evaluates LLMs on CEO-level strategic resource reallocation -- the process of redirecting capital across business units in a multi-round, constraint-rich organizational environment. In \textsc{CEO-Bench}, LLM agents receive conflicting advice from four role-conditioned C-suite advisors (CFO, CTO, COO, CMO), each with private signals and distinct priorities, and must synthesize these into a concrete allocation plan evaluated along four dimensions: role integration, conditional boldness, history-sensitive judgment, and plan validity. Experiments across five frontier models on 13 scenarios reveal that all models achieve high structural validity but diverge sharply on strategic calibration -- the hardest capability layer. We identify systematic failure modes including single-advisor capture, conservative default under ambiguity, and historical amnesia, and uncover a structural integration-boldness tradeoff: models that engage more deeply with conflicting perspectives tend to produce less decisive action. These findings delineate the current capability boundary of LLMs as organizational decision-makers and inform the design of future AI-assisted executive systems.

As LLM agents become capable of increasingly long-horizon tasks, evaluating their performance in economic systems is becoming increasingly important. Unlike existing benchmarks that primarily evaluate a single agent interacting with a passive environment, economic systems are inherently multi-agent, requiring autonomous agents to communicate, negotiate, and transact while pursuing their own objectives over extended periods. We introduce CoffeeBench, a benchmark for evaluating LLM agents in a long-horizon multi-agent economy composed of heterogeneous firms. In CoffeeBench, two farmers, two roasters, and two retailers autonomously operate their businesses over a 90-day simulation, each seeking to maximize cumulative net income through communication and transactions while managing cash, inventory, and pricing. The evaluated model controls one coffee roaster, while the remaining firms are controlled by fixed reference agents. Across several recent open-weight and proprietary LLMs, all models outperform a passive baseline that takes no actions, with most achieving positive net income. Analysis of agent behavior reveals substantial differences in long-horizon economic interaction: higher-performing models communicate more actively with other firms, whereas ClaudeHaiku4.5 exhibits an idle-drift failure mode, repeatedly choosing inaction despite producing coherent assessments and plans. We release our code and agent trajectories to support future research.

Policy-oriented agent-based models are increasingly used to study regulatory interventions in complex adaptive socio-technical systems. Recent adaptive ABM frameworks distinguish between static and adaptive agents, fixed and adaptive policies, and alternative controller designs. However, most diagnostic workflows remain ex post: trajectories are analysed after simulation, but the resulting evidence is not systematically fed back into the policy controller. This paper proposes a lightweight machine-coached policy-revision layer for adaptive agent-based regulation. The layer represents policy decisions as defeasible rules with explicit conflicts and priorities, generates explanations for controller actions, and allows diagnostic failures to be translated into rule additions, removals, or priority changes. The contribution is not a new optimal controller and does not claim formal guarantees for unrestricted machine coaching. Instead, it provides a simulation-compatible operationalization of controller-level contestability: policy decisions can be explained, challenged, revised, and re-evaluated in held-out simulation runs. A stylized emissions-regulation ABM is used as the experimental component. A controlled simulation experiment focuses on an over-conservatism failure in the VPVA regime. The predefined coaching template adds a relaxation rule to the symbolic controller, reducing over-conservatism recurrence under held-out seeds while preserving violation, overshoot, and volatility guardrails. The paper argues that machine coaching is best understood as a controller-level extension of explainable adaptive ABM, complementary to causal, information-theoretic, and trajectory-based diagnostics.

Agent-based models are widely used to evaluate policy interventions in complex socio-technical systems, yet many policy-oriented ABMs represent regulation as a fixed scenario parameter. This limits their ability to distinguish whether regulatory conclusions depend on agent adaptation, policy adaptation, or the interaction between both. Building on a previously proposed four-regime architecture, this paper contributes a controlled simulation benchmark rather than a new general framework. Using a single configurable emissions-regulation ABM, we compare constant policy/constant agents, constant policy/adaptive agents, adaptive policy/constant agents, and adaptive policy/adaptive agents under matched simulation conditions. We evaluate naive fixed policies, tracking-aware calibrated fixed policies, and three adaptive controllers: setpoint, safety-margin, and one-sided control. The benchmark recovers expected controller archetypes: setpoint control tracks the cap but produces frequent boundary crossings, safety-margin control reduces violations through conservatism, and one-sided control can limit violations but may ratchet toward over-conservatism when combined with adaptive agents. The contribution is methodological: scalar indicators, cap-relative symbolic diagnostics, trajectory motifs, and visual inspection jointly reveal how regulatory conclusions can differ even when average outcomes appear similar. Adaptive policy-oriented ABMs should therefore be evaluated through regime distinguishability, not only through average performance.

We study uncertainty quantification for aggregated forecasting tasks such as annual totals and year-over-year growth rates. We propose SA-MSCP, a simulation-augmented multi-step split conformal method that generates future paths from cross-validated residuals using a block bootstrap and constructs prediction intervals from empirical quantiles. Experiments show that SA-MSCP improves empirical coverage over a simulated-path baseline for aggregated and growth-rate targets. Our results demonstrate that simulation-enhanced conformal calibration is an effective and general framework for uncertainty quantification in aggregated time-series forecasting.

We develop an LLM-powered virtual population model that simulates demand for pricing decisions, in settings where products are described by rich unstructured information, such as text descriptions and images, and where decision makers need not only mean-demand predictions but also uncertainty estimates for counterfactual prices. Our model represents exposed customers as draws from a finite mixture of customer personas. For each persona, product, and candidate price, an LLM elicits a persona-level purchase probability using both structured persona information and unstructured product information. These probabilities are aggregated through calibrated mixture weights to form a predictive distribution of aggregate demand. The resulting simulator can evaluate counterfactual prices under various pricing objectives, including expected revenue and risk-aware criteria such as conditional value at risk. We test the framework on an online H&M fashion dataset with product descriptions and images. The calibrated LLM-based simulator achieves the best overall predictive performance among the models considered, and supports sample-efficient pricing decisions. Our framework provides a practical way to use LLMs as demand simulators for products with limited historical demand data but rich product information. By producing a full predictive demand distribution rather than only a point forecast, it enables managers to compare candidate prices, quantify demand uncertainty, and choose prices that target either average-case revenue or risk-aware objectives.

Emotional intelligence (EI) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is often evaluated through static understanding tasks or single-response dialogue generation. However, emotion management is interactive: a good model should not only recognize a user's emotion, but also improve the user's emotional and relational state over several turns. We introduce EIBench, a simulator-based benchmark for interactive emotion management. EIBench contains 2,222 scenarios, with 2,009 for training and 213 for held-out testing. The scenarios are organized by a 2x2 taxonomy covering Support, Defense, Repair, and Charm, which together capture different forms of support, boundary maintenance, trust repair, and rapport building. In each scenario, an LLM simulator plays the user, updates an emotion-relation state after each turn, and maps the final state to an anchor-based score. This design makes EIBench both an evaluation benchmark and a training environment: the final state gives the outcome reward, while the per-turn state updates provide dense feedback for RL. We evaluate 15 open- and closed-source LLMs. Current models perform well on support and rapport-building scenes, but struggle with boundary maintenance under user pressure. To improve the EI ability of LLMs, we propose Centered Turn-Credit GRPO (CTC-GRPO), a GRPO extension that reuses the simulator's per-turn state updates as dense turn-level feedback while preserving the final outcome reward. CTC-GRPO improves Qwen3-8B from -22.4 to +22.4 on EIBench and also improves on out-of-distribution evaluations including SAGE (+12.4) and EQBench3 (+20.9%). Our results show that simulator-tracked user states can support both evaluation and training for multi-turn emotion management.

Large-scale learner-task interaction data are crucial for intelligent educational systems but are costly to collect and constrained by privacy and learner engagement. Learner simulators play a critical role in simulating scalable learner behavior without the need for continuous involvement of real learners. However, existing methods are predominantly \textbf{individual-centric}, pairing a simulator with each learner to iteratively infer latent knowledge states from dense interaction histories, which is both data- and computation-intensive, and fragile in cold-start scenarios. We propose a \textbf{cohort-aware roll-call simulation paradigm} that first constructs cohort-level proficiency priors and refines individual learner states through a small number of targeted diagnostic queries. Based on this paradigm, we introduce \textbf{Edu-Theater}, an LLM-powered agent system that performs cohort-aware learner simulation via a teacher agent and retrospective roll-call probing over learner logs. Edu-Theater enables scalable future behavior simulation without the need for dense per-learner histories. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that Edu-Theater achieves higher simulation accuracy with significantly fewer LLM calls, producing synthetic data that enhances downstream applications such as adaptive testing.