Commitment
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8 papers in the last four weeks, up 33% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.
Latest papers 60
A chatbot that says "I will remind you tomorrow" will not run again until the user writes. We call such a promise an empty commitment: a promise of an action after the current turn that nothing in the agent's tools or runtime can carry out. Unlike a broken promise, its emptiness follows from the agent's configuration alone; no later trajectory is needed. We define empty commitments on top of commitment semantics, with three failure types, an anchoring condition for promises that a tool could make real, and a response-level outcome taxonomy. We then describe a measurement protocol: follow-up requests run in five setups that add one persistence affordance at a time, with the environment either left implicit or stated.
Context without Commitment: Robust Dense Correspondence under Non-Rigid Deformation
Non-rigid point-cloud registration aims to find the corresponding target point for each point on a deforming source surface. Point-level matching keeps the full target cloud available, but correspondence becomes ambiguous when different regions have similar local geometry. Regional or coarse-to-fine methods provide broader spatial context, but an incorrect regional match can exclude the correct correspondence before dense matching. We propose CoCo-Reg, which uses regional patches to enrich dense point features without allowing patch predictions to restrict the final point-level search. CoCo-Reg constructs farthest-point-sampled patches, exchanges geometric information within and between source and target, supervises patch similarity using identity-corrected point overlap, and projects the resulting regional information back to dense point features. The final registration stage still scores the full target cloud before global point-level candidate selection. On 726 held-out ModelNet10 objects across nine deformation levels, two established learning-based baselines obtain mean correspondence errors of 0.1993 and 0.1921, whereas CoCo-Reg obtains 0.0547. Relative to its point-level baseline, this is a 72.6% reduction. CoCo-Reg achieves lower correspondence error on 92.3% of paired test objects and reduces the mean fraction of points with error above 0.1 from 47.3% to 17.3%. Chamfer distance and HD95 decrease in the same direction, and CoCo-Reg remains lower across all tested deformation levels. These results support using regional context for dense non-rigid correspondence without imposing a hard patch-level restriction on the final search. Because evaluation uses one checkpoint per method, the reported gains characterize the complete systems rather than the isolated causal contribution of an individual component. Code will be made publicly available.
Reliable Parallel Decoding in Masked Diffusion Language Models
Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) can generate text efficiently by predicting multiple masked tokens in parallel, but predictions from the same forward pass are not necessarily reliable when committed together. We study when parallel commitment is reliable. Our diagnostics show that confidence alone does not determine a reliable commitment order: confident predictions near the end of the sequence can fix an answer before its supporting computations are established, and downstream predictions become less reliable as the uncertainty of their upstream context grows. At the same time, a single forward pass can already resolve several masked tokens, and predictions that remain stable across the final layers are more likely to be correct. Based on these findings, we propose Reliable Parallel Decoding (RPD), a training-free method that selects candidates by layerwise prediction stability and final confidence, and commits them under a cumulative entropy budget over their preceding masked positions. RPD defers predictions with uncertain upstream context while committing the remaining candidates in parallel, without relying on a fixed block schedule. Across mathematical reasoning and code generation benchmarks on LLaDA and Dream, RPD achieves the highest decoding throughput among the evaluated methods while maintaining or improving accuracy.
When Confidence Rises Too Early: Detecting Shortcut Reasoning via Premature Answer Commitment
The reasoning trajectory of a Large Language Model (LLM) is often treated as a verbalized description of its internal reasoning. However, such trajectories can be unfaithful: a model may rely on shortcuts to reach an answer and then post-rationalize the decision with a seemingly coherent chain of thought. Detecting this shortcut reasoning is challenging because existing monitors and verifiers mainly inspect textual traces or final outcomes, rather than how the model's belief in its answer develops during generation. We introduce ConfLens, a framework that tracks the evolution of confidence in the final answer throughout reasoning. Across three shortcut reasoning settings, we observe a common pattern of premature confidence, where shortcut samples become highly confident in the final answer at early reasoning stages. Existing confidence estimation methods, however, show limited generalizability, reliability, or efficiency for detecting this behavior. We therefore propose the Distributional Answer Commitment Score (DACS), a distributional confidence estimator that measures the entropy of the model's probability distribution over answer commitment at each reasoning step. DACS captures how concentrated the model's answer belief is without requiring ground-truth answers or task-specific verifiers. We further convert ConfLens detection results into interpretable signals for reward models to reduce their preference for shortcut reasoning. Experiments on mathematical and code reasoning tasks show that ConfLens with DACS improves shortcut reasoning detection by over 4.3% F1 compared with strong baselines and reduces the mismatch between faithfulness and correctness in reward model preferences.
Commitment Hierarchies under Intent Revision: A Belief-Revision Account of Salvage in Tool-Use Agents
When a user changes their mind partway through a task, an agent that has already split the task into sub-goals and paid for tool calls must decide, per cached sub-result, whether to keep, patch, or discard it (salvage), restarting wastes valid work and continuing unchanged answers the old question. Our main finding is that salvage quality is a matter of role design rather than model capability: a language model asked the keep/patch/discard question one node at a time is unreliable, but asked to classify the revision once, with a deterministic layer propagating the decision, it reaches the cost-optimal oracle on all three models tested, from two vendors. Modeling the plan as a commitment hierarchy and the intent change as a belief-revision operator with AGM style postulates, we prove that no policy observing only a node's local view can be both safe and cost optimal, while the single classification design is both. Across three environments the policy recovers the full achievable savings, 43% cheaper than restart, at 100% correctness.
Script Choice in LLMs: Evidence for Late-Layer Commitment
In this paper, we investigate how script knowledge is distributed across the layers of LLMs using two complementary interpretability methods: logistic regression probing and logit-lens analysis. Our probing experiments reveal a clear asymmetry: both the input script and the instructed output script are encoded in the earliest layers of the network, while, in contrast, commitment to the actual output script emerges only in the final layers, with the model's intermediate representations defaulting to Latin throughout most of the layers. This two-stage process is confirmed by logit-lens analyses, which show that script commitment consistently occurs at the very last layers of the LLMs. Together with the weaker script-following performance observed in smaller models, these results form a converging body of evidence linking script commitment to model depth, with broader implications for the design of sufficiently deep, inclusive multilingual architectures.
When Should LLMs Abstain? Chain-of-Self-Questioning for Selective Risk Control
Large language models can produce fluent answers when their factual support is weak. This paper introduces Chain-of-Self-Questioning (CoSQ), a prompt-only framework that makes answer commitment conditional on an explicit assessment of the information required to answer a question. We evaluate three CoSQ variants under seventeen conditions on the 817-item TruthfulQA multiple-choice validation set using eleven open-weight and hosted model families. In the final balanced-option protocol, Grounded-CoSQ at τ=0.90 reduces the mean unconditional wrong-commitment rate from 13.1% under chain-of-thought prompting to 8.9%, a 32.1% relative reduction, while increasing answered accuracy from 86.9% to 89.7% and answering 87.6% of questions. Both improvements hold for all eleven models and at every evaluated threshold. Critical-CoSQ and Adaptive-CoSQ provide neighboring operating points with 88.6% and 86.5% coverage, respectively, while remaining more reliable than the baseline. A secondary Natural Questions Short-Answer evaluation provides convergent open-form evidence. These findings show that self-assessment can support explicit, tunable answer-or-abstain decisions when an unsupported commitment is more costly than referral or review.
Exact Fusion and Coordinated Exploration in Multi-Robot Active Inference
Robot teams that learn a common environment model exchange belief summaries and plan by the expected information gain of their actions. Under conjugate exponential-family beliefs the shared belief is counted once per robot at two points: at fusion, the product of local posteriors counts the common prior times, and at planning, every robot scores its plan under the same belief and the team converges on the same unknown. Both errors are removed by adding evidence increments to the shared natural parameter, realized increments at fusion and expected increments at planning. The expected increment of a committed teammate gives the next robot its conditional gain; corrected gains sum to the joint gain, the redundancy removed equals the total correlation of the planned observation streams, and sequential commitment keeps the greedy guarantee. The expected increment is exact for Gaussian beliefs with fixed sampling paths and for Dirichlet beliefs under the novelty approximation of discrete active inference, whose team objective has a closed concave form within an explicit bound of the exact mutual information, and fails for finite hypothesis classes, where a short exact enumeration replaces it. Experiments on cooperative RockSample, foraging, and field monitoring show that fusion correction leaves exploration redundancy unchanged, anticipated evidence removes it, and sequential commitment recovers most of the value of centralized joint planning at cost linear in the team size.
Pilot Early, Commit Late: A Real-Options Model of Enterprise AI Adoption under Rapid Technological Progress
Artificial intelligence presents firms with an unusual timing problem. The technology frontier is improving rapidly, implementation is partly irreversible, and organization-specific capabilities are accumulated through action. This paper develops a two-period decision model of AI deployment under uncertainty in which a firm chooses among immediate deployment, a limited pilot, and waiting. Deployment earns current operating value but exposes the firm to architectural obsolescence; waiting preserves the option to adopt after the frontier is observed; a pilot sacrifices current operating value to build organization-specific learning without full commitment. The model yields five central timing results and a sixth comparative result on where learning occurs. First, a mean-preserving increase in frontier uncertainty raises the value of waiting and piloting but leaves immediate deployment unchanged when its payoff is affine in the frontier. Second, faster expected frontier progress can reduce the relative attractiveness of immediate deployment when deployed architecture captures only a limited share of future improvement. Third, a pilot dominates waiting exactly when the expected value of the capability it builds exceeds its cost. Fourth, sufficiently valuable organization-specific learning creates a nonempty region in which "pilot early, commit late" is optimal. Fifth, there is a closed-form modularity threshold above which immediate deployment dominates the best outside option. Sixth, production learning and pilot-specific learning affect the timing margin differently. A continuous-time extension recovers the standard result that uncertainty raises the adoption threshold while capability and modularity lower it. The paper separates deploying, experimenting, and waiting, and shows why rapid progress can rationally increase experimentation without justifying irreversible commitment.
Routing by Reasoning Need: Trajectory-Aware Decoding Control for Diffusion Vision-Language Models
Diffusion vision-language models generate answers through iterative refinement, exposing intermediate answer trajectories that can be inspected and controlled at inference time. However, this controllability creates a reasoning-need mismatch, where a universal generation length is applied to questions with different reasoning demands. Visually closed questions may be harmed by continued refinement after a stable answer has formed, whereas reasoning-sensitive questions may be harmed by premature commitment. We formulate this problem as reasoning-budget mismatch and study it in LLaDA-V. Rather than choosing a universal generation length, our training-free controller routes each example to early commitment, baseline preservation, or reasoning-supportive decoding using trajectory signals from answer closure, commitment evidence, and representation revision pressure, without using ground-truth answers. Across answer-focused, mixed-reasoning, and CoT-sensitive benchmarks, routed control improves robustness over fixed long decoding, pure short decoding, and single-rule interventions. The gains are not explained by shorter outputs alone. Answer-closed examples often benefit from commitment, whereas CoT-sensitive examples require preserving or supporting intermediate reasoning. Taken together, these results suggest diffusion VLM decoding should route inference-time control by the state suggested by the observed trajectory instead of relying on a universal decoding length.
Silent Revision: Measuring Undisclosed Change in the Safety Frameworks of Frontier AI Developers
Frontier AI developers publish safety frameworks that commit them to evidencing whether their models are dangerous. The European Union and California now treat these documents as instruments of accountability, and both already impose duties on their revision. Neither requires the revision to be legible, in the sense that a reader could learn from the developer's own account what changed. We introduce the silent revision rate, the share of material changes to a framework's commitments that the developer's published account does not identify, and we release the versioned, hash-pinned corpus needed to compute it. The corpus contains every public version of the safety frameworks of the twelve developers that have published one, together with each provider's changelog, redline or announcement. We trace 710 commitment instances across twelve consecutive version pairs, code them against a frozen codebook, and adjudicate 244 individually. Three findings follow. First, 67% of material changes (95% CI 62 to 72) are silent under a strict standard and 53% under a lenient one, falling to 49% at section granularity. Second, silence appears to track the form of the account, since narrative announcements run at 74% against 63% for itemised changelogs, whereas account length in words barely matters; on the test that respects nesting the difference is suggestive. Third, 77% of traced changes weaken or remove a commitment, and in seven of eight pairs weakenings are more often silent than strengthenings. The statutory remedy therefore exists and specifies the wrong artefact. A justification explains why a framework changed, an enumeration states what changed, and only the latter makes revision auditable. We argue that publication duties should carry an enumeration duty, which one provider already meets, voluntarily and incompletely.
Dalek: A Constructive Agent Machine
We present Dalek, a closed machine designed for agents that realizes self-maintenance, self-evolution, self-reproduction, and self-organization on any substrate satisfying a general host contract. The machine is built from three primitives---actors, messages, and channels. Four obligations---a host boundary, a construction language, admissible transitions, and rule heredity---give its boundary, identity, and closure a structural basis. Von Neumann's 1948 self-reproducing automaton supplies a hereditary constructional core: a self-description together with a constructor, a copier, and a controller. Dalek combines this core with the four obligations and rederives its medium for a text-and-message agent substrate, adding explicit structures for boundary, identity, history, and growth. A large language model and a compiler occupy the payload position and form a general capability producer. New capabilities are authored, compiled, installed into the description, and inherited by descendants. The same path produces the machine's own organs and even its runtime, closing heredity and evolution within the machine.
From Truncation to Commitment: Persistent Context in Uniform Discrete Diffusion
Uniform-state discrete diffusion models update all tokens in parallel while keeping every position revisable. Even when the commonly used top- rule leaves only one candidate at a position, that choice affects only the current reverse step and can be revised at the next sampling step. We ask what changes when selected hypotheses instead become persistent context for later predictions. We therefore propose committed reveal sampling (CRS), a training-free sampler that stores selected argmax tokens and inserts them into subsequent model inputs. Our analysis gives a rationale for selecting later and for keeping selected tokens visible. Under the exact forward process, the Bayes error of selecting a clean token cannot increase as noise decreases, while in a simple latent-mode model, keeping the selected token visible helps later parallel predictions agree on the same sequence-level choice. Empirically, paired experiments on Duo-distilled then separate this persistent effect from single-step top- restriction and scalar temperature scaling. Under the same finalization rule, CRS without top- truncation reaches lower generative perplexity (GenPPL) than fixed and baselines across budgets of 8--64 function evaluations (NFE). At 64 NFE, the comparison at matched unigram entropy also gives lower GenPPL for CRS, yielding a more favorable GenPPL--entropy tradeoff. Base Duo shows the same direction in a descriptive comparison, while other diversity and continuation metrics can rank these operating points differently. These results identify support restriction and persistent context as distinct controls of that tradeoff.
Credal Large Language Models for Semantic Commitment under Uncertainty
Large language models (LLMs) often produce fluent but incorrect answers with unwarranted confidence. A central limitation is that standard LLMs represent uncertainty through a single predictive distribution, conflating epistemic ignorance with genuine ambiguity. We introduce Credal Large Language Models (CLLMs): an ensemble of LoRA adapters induces a credal set whose lower and upper probabilities expose the spread of plausible predictive distributions rather than collapsing to a single softmax output. From this representation, we derive a single commitment rule: the model commits to an answer only when its lower probability exceeds the upper probability of every alternative, and otherwise returns the set of answers that no plausible predictor rules out. We apply this commitment rule at two depths: Credal Token Commitment (CTC) applies it to answer tokens from one ensemble forward pass, which decides constrained answers without any generation; for open-ended answers, credal decoding extends a partial answer only when no completed answer dominates it, so that the completions produced are those the plausible predictors license, and Credal Semantic Commitment (CSC) applies the rule to their meaning clusters. We evaluate CLLMs with Gemma-2-9B, Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen2.5-7B on OpenBookQA, CoQA, TriviaQA and ARC-Challenge. On multiple choice, CTC commits on 73-91% of questions at 89-98% accuracy, returns sets of 1.1-1.5 options containing the gold one on 89-98%, and its intervals contain the observed accuracy in 24 of 30 confidence bins without calibration; corrupted context lowers commitment from 87-92% to 65-71%, and on Gemma the credal bound detects corruption better than every baseline. On open-ended QA, CLLM outperforms semantic entropy and Laplace-LoRA at a fixed coverage by up to 19% and 9.5% absolute accuracy on CoQA and TriviaQA with context, for every backbone.
Commitment Before Realization: When Classifier-Free Guidance Becomes Unnecessary in Masked Diffusion Language Models
Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is usually kept on throughout masked diffusion language model decoding, although its benefit varies across prompts and over time. We study when CFG is actually needed by comparing, from any partial output, the probability of eventual constraint satisfaction under continued CFG and under base-only continuation. Their difference defines the remaining value of guidance. Guidance dependence is highly prompt-specific. Many prompts already succeed without CFG, while for others it provides no measurable benefit or can be harmful. For prompts that do benefit, the gain is often concentrated early. We define the commitment horizon as the earliest point from which switching all remaining decoding to the base model reduces final success by no more than a chosen tolerance. Under the base model, the corresponding success probability, or committor, is a martingale. To first order, CFG's per-step effect is governed by the covariance between the guidance logit direction and the successor committor. This gives a local account of when guidance can help, but it does not by itself locate the horizon. Among prompts with an observed preterminal horizon, is usually early and varies more within constraint families than between them. Freezing each prompt at its own cross-fitted horizon is noninferior to full CFG on all 13 subtasks at the prespecified margin, even while many tokens remain masked. This separates commitment from realization. The boundary also identifies a later region in which higher parallelism adds only a small cost in constraint success, although fluency still degrades with parallel width. For failed trajectories, reopening committed positions improves recovery in both failure modes.
Answer First, Reason Later: Commitment Order in Diffusion LLMs
Masked diffusion language models (dLLMs) can commit tokens in any order -- a freedom marketed as their core advantage over autoregressive decoding. We show that on reasoning tasks this freedom is instead the axis of failure. Logging every commitment during decoding of LLaDA-8B on GSM8K, we find that unconstrained (pure) decoding commits the final answer at 15-24% of the trajectory while half the reasoning region is still masked, and collapses to answer-only outputs on up to 90% of problems as the canvas grows. The cause is not the model's termination beliefs -- EOS "pressure" is nearly identical across decoders -- but reachability: whether the sampler may act on those beliefs at distant positions. A 2x2 prompt-decoder design shows that chain-of-thought helps only under ordered commitment (interaction +34.8 percentage points, 95% CI [26.8, 42.8]; without reasoning text the decoders are indistinguishable), an interaction we decompose into a collapse channel and an order channel and replicate on Dream-7B and MATH-500. A single-knob intervention -- frontier-gated commitment -- causally recovers the full gap (0.528 to 0.852) while preserving up to 4x parallel decoding, along a measured frontier whose optimal window flips from w=1 at full refinement to unconstrained at 8 tokens/step. Our results reframe existing window-style samplers, previously motivated by efficiency, as the minimal fix for a reasoning pathology they were never designed to address.
Evidence Lock Before Commitment: A Frozen Interface Degrades LLM-as-Judge Evaluation
LLM judges are often asked to extract criteria and evidence before choosing between candidate answers. This workflow assumes that the intermediate record preserves the information needed for a later verdict. For reasoning-capable models, visible field order does not reveal internal decision order, so we test an observable alternative: persist the evidence in one call and make it the exclusive input to the next. Across 24,000 judgments over HelpSteer3, FeedbackQA, and CoVal, we compare standard pairwise judging, structured one-call judging, two-call evidence locking, and three-call pointwise locking with Claude Sonnet 4.5 and GPT-5. Evidence locking reduces agreement with released human preferences by 4 to 6 percentage points and increases answer-order inconsistency by 8 to 10 points relative to structured one-call judging. Pointwise locking is also harmful, while structured evidence elicitation remains close to standard judging. The result holds for both judges and all three datasets. Persisted evidence can support auditability, but it should not replace the source answers at decision time.
Binding Biometrics with AI Agent Identifiers for Delegation of Authority
The proliferation of agentic artificial intelligence (AI) systems has raised serious questions about the accountability for tasks performed by AI agents. Ideally, an AI agent must not be allowed to perform critical tasks without explicit authorization by a human operator. Since biometric recognition is one of the most reliable approaches for authenticating individuals, it has the potential to enable authenticated delegation of authority to AI agents. In this work, we present a framework called BIND, which leverages ideas from the field of biometric cryptosystems, to securely bind biometric data of the human user to the AI agent identity (ID) and authority scope (task-specific constraints) at the time of agent authorization. This token/identifier can be presented by the AI agent to an Identity Auditor, who simultaneously performs biometric authentication and recovers the agent ID and scope, thereby enabling real-time user authentication and establishing a non-repudiable proof of human control and delegation of authority. We also provide a practical implementation of the proposed BIND framework based on face features extracted using standard deep neural network models. To facilitate this implementation, we propose a feature adaptation module that transforms real-valued feature embeddings into fixed-length binary representations suitable for a fuzzy commitment construct based on turbo error correcting codes. Experiments demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed face cryptosystem, achieving a True Match Rate of at zero False Match Rate and supporting -bit agent tokens.
The LLM Proposes, the Executive Disposes: A Self-Verifying Agent Instrument that Dissociates Commitment Drift from Binding Drift in Long-Horizon Agents
How do you verify a long-horizon agent when its own state and self-reports are exactly what you cannot trust? We present an agent instrument built so that verification is structural rather than post-hoc. A deterministic Executive owns all belief; a language model may only file typed proposals, and a claim is admitted only when a prediction pre-registered before acting is matched against observation by code. Two properties make the instrument a verifier of its own science, not just of the agent: every run invalidates itself when per-organ write-error, render-size, or salted-canary-echo floors are breached (four of the first eight architecture runs were invalidated, each localizing a real defect); and a render-invisible shadow reference compiles the plan the full system would have committed in every ablation cell, so drift metrics are defined even where the mechanism under test has been removed. Using this instrument we report a clean, single-variable result on a failure every long-horizon agent suffers: ablating the commitment mechanism flips goal-abandonment from 0.00 to 1.00 while binding error stays flat at 0.00 (three seeds per cell, up to 394 reference beats per run, every run gated valid). The binding channel, by contrast, does not reappear as per-beat drift when its repair is ablated -- because binding is code-owned, the failure class is structurally absorbed, its only residue appearing one layer upstream as a collapse in hypothesis formation. We report these under full disclosure that task efficacy is null (zero level completions across 52 gated runs on ARC-AGI-3), pre-registered as a structural defeater. The contribution is a verification methodology for agent development and the drift decomposition it makes measurable.
Rolling With Resistance: Preference-Optimized LLM Counselors Can Trade Goal Persistence for Relational Attunement in Motivational Interviewing
In Motivational Interviewing (MI), a client's sustain talk (arguments for the status quo) calls for the counselor to roll with resistance, a move that can fail in two opposite ways: capitulation (abandoning the change agenda to preserve rapport) or confrontation (arguing or directing, overriding the client's autonomy). We introduce a two-axis evaluation of counselor responses, anchored in the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity (MITI) code, Goal Persistence (GP) and Relational Attunement (RA), yielding a four-quadrant framing in which rolling with resistance is high on both, and we ask whether penalizing one failure through preference optimization teaches rolling with resistance or provokes its opposite. From the expert-annotated AnnoMI corpus we build topic-disjoint Direct Preference Optimization data whose preference sets differ only in which failure is rejected, using on-policy negatives. An automatic judge, validated against AnnoMI's expert labels and rechecked by trained human coders, scores blind pairwise win-rates against each base under a firewall in which disjoint model families generate, label, and judge. Across three aligned instruction models spanning the Qwen and Llama families, penalizing confrontation reliably lowers goal persistence below parity, on every base and in every seed run, a robust cost, whereas the attunement gain is base-dependent, present on two of the three bases but absent on the third. Penalizing capitulation is inert, because these models rarely capitulate on-policy, so the trade is gated by each base's failure profile. A prompt-only control raises attunement without the goal-persistence cost, locating the cost in the optimization rather than in attunement itself.
COVENANT: Natural-Language Workflow Compilation for Aligned Agent Execution
Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly entrusted with natural-language workflow instructions (e.g., retail-payment policies) that specify not only what outcome to achieve, but also which steps, branches, and tool interactions are permitted. When these instructions are supplied as prompt context, however, the model retains control over both procedure selection and step execution. As interactions accumulate, an agent can skip required steps, take unsupported branches, or execute a valid step with unsupported arguments or effects--a failure mode we call workflow misalignment. In this work, we propose COVENANT, a compiler-and-interpreter architecture for workflow-aligned agent execution. Our key insight is to treat workflow instructions as source programs rather than prompts. COVENANT converts the instructions into a workflow abstract syntax tree (WAST) and lowers it to a workflow control-flow graph (WCFG). At runtime, a controller interprets the WCFG one node at a time, checks each proposal against requirements extracted from the instructions before committing controller state or advancing the graph, and returns diagnostic feedback for repair. To evaluate COVENANT, we use 120 cases from three existing benchmarks, spanning seven workflow scenarios. Compared with state-of-the-art LLM agents, COVENANT improves benchmark success from 50.00% to 83.33% and reduces the workflow-misalignment failure rate from 42.50% to 15.83% (62.75% relative). These results show that COVENANT substantially mitigates workflow misalignment, moving LLM-agent alignment beyond isolated prompt following toward reliable execution of complex and multi-step workflows.
Falsifiable Commitment Planning for Self-Correcting Web Agents
Long-horizon web agents often go off track before final failure: a trajectory can remain locally plausible even after the current state, reused skill, or plan assumption no longer supports the user instruction. Existing agents can plan, reflect, or reuse experience, but their plans rarely specify the evidence under which an active step should still be trusted. We propose FCPAgent, a falsifiable commitment planning framework for robust long-horizon web agents. FCPAgent represents each plan step as a Falsifiable Commitment Unit (FCU): a subgoal grounded in a reusable skill, together with confirming evidence, falsifying evidence, and a confidence score. Execution is organized as a plan-test-repair loop. The hybrid commitment testing module checks candidate actions before they modify the browser and checks observations after execution; for efficiency, it combines lightweight evidence matching with LLM-based diagnostic verification. When evidence falsifies a commitment, scope-aware repair localizes the contradiction to the execution, skill, or planning level and revises the smallest adequate part. On WebArena, FCPAgent achieves a 13.8% relative improvement in average success over the strongest baseline, with especially large gains on long-horizon tasks.
Commitment To Cooperation With Self-Negotiated Contracts
As AI agents operate with increasing autonomy in a multi-agent world, they will need to learn to cooperate with other agents and with humans to generate mutual benefits. However, cooperation is a challenge because the costs of cooperation are often incurred early on, but the benefits are only realized later, creating an incentive to defect. How can AI agents cooperate with commitment? Here, we draw on inspiration from legal institutions and contracting that human societies have used to solve principal-agent problems of this kind. Contracts provide observable representations of agreements that enable credible commitments through the enforcement of terms. We study the role of contract-based cooperation using LLM-based agents in \CT, a spatial-temporal game that combines bargaining with navigation towards a goal. We study a suite of contract representations that range from formal contracts that compile to code to natural contracts that require reinterpretation. We evaluate agents with a range of LLM backbones using different sizes and providers. We find that self-negotiated contracts can improve cooperative outcomes beyond what is possible with regular trading.
When Can Safe Controllers Adapt? Information before Commitment
Safe adaptive control is online adaptation under a safety guarantee on the learning trajectory itself. The controller may use any causal, history-dependent rule and act differently across environments as data arrive. Only its safety guarantee is uniform: the same rule must satisfy it under every initially plausible model. Performance is measured against a safe oracle that knows the realized model. Many finite-time analyses assume persistent excitation of the uniformly safe closed loop, so the data distinguish every pair of models requiring different control decisions. Under that assumption, feasibility is already settled; only the rate remains. We ask instead: Do the safety constraints permit such an informative experiment at all? While an alternative remains plausible, the controller must preserve a safe continuation under it. We call the first action that forecloses such a continuation commitment. Chance safety allows commitment only on an event rare under the alternative, and the evidence must arrive beforehand: the observation generated by the committing action is too late. We define precommitment information as the KL divergence between learner-visible laws stopped before commitment. Our main result is a causal reduction. The commitment rule determines (1) the probability that safety permits commitment under the alternative, (2) the target-side cost of remaining noncommittal, (3) and the information available when the decision is made. Bounded precommitment information therefore leaves a fixed fraction of the oracle gap unavoidable. If the gap is Ω(T), every uniformly safe policy has linear regret. We establish the obstruction in a constrained linear system with quadratic regulation cost. We also prove recovery in special cases and derive semidefinite upper certificates for deterministic linear-Gaussian systems.
Committed Before Reasoning: Behavioral Reproduction and Preliminary Activation-Level Evidence of Answer Pre-Commitment in an Open-Weight LLM
Chat models sometimes commit to an answer and then produce reasoning that justifies it rather than deriving it -- even when the answer contradicts a task premise. We study a minimal probe: "I want to wash my car. The car wash is 100 meters away. Should I walk or drive?" Only drive works (the car must be at the car wash), yet models overwhelmingly recommend walking. (1) Behavioral reproduction: on Qwen3-8B across five system-prompt conditions (210 rollouts), the wrong commitment occurs in 85-100% of sampled rollouts per condition and 100% of greedy rollouts, in both thinking and non-thinking modes; a 4,096-token thinking budget does not repair it. (2) Preliminary activation-level evidence: probing hidden states with a pretrained, training-free activation oracle (no task-specific probe training) at positions before the answer text is emitted, "walk" read-outs exceed a neutral-context baseline (68% vs. 17%; walk-committing rollouts p=.005, drive-committing rollouts p=.005, Fisher exact) -- notably, rollouts that eventually answer drive also read as walk-leaning before commitment (5/6). The oracle's default on unrelated content is "drive" (83%), so the read-outs are not lexical bias; stratifying by literal walk/drive occurrence shows they are not text recovery either (spans containing "drive" still read out walk; in balanced lexical fields, per-rollout walk-majorities beat a per-prompt neutral baseline 15/22 vs. 1/8, p=.01; drive-committing rollouts 6/6, p=.002). Samples are small and the within-rollout positional gradient is not significant (p=.34); we frame these results as preliminary. (3) Methodological: with fixed oracle, activations, and positions, question wording alone moves a positive control from 2/16 (open question) to 11/16 (closed); negative oracle results are uninterpretable without per-wording positive controls.
Analytic Abduction: Causal Decomposition and Governed Commitment for Human--AI Coordination
Abductive reasoning operates in two directions. The synthetic mode builds explanations from available hypotheses; the analytic mode, conversely, identifies the latent factors whose interaction accounts for a complex observed state. This paper develops the analytic mode as a non-greedy, risk-sensitive discipline of commitment, in which candidate factors coexist and interact, resolving into committed conclusions only when explicit governance conditions are met. The formal core is the - apparatus: encodes the epistemic interaction among hypotheses, and sets a commitment threshold calibrated to the decision's stakes. The central contribution is the causal cluster, a structured object recording which latent factors participate in a decomposition, with what weights and interaction structure, together with a two-level architecture (intra-cluster , inter-cluster ) that guards against causal misattribution. Demonstrated in epidemiological crisis decomposition and adversarial cyber threat analysis, the framework's contribution to human-AI reasoning is the legibility of suspended decomposition as a shared coordination object, providing structural resistance to premature convergence. In practice, the decision-maker is handed not a single imposed answer but the competing explanatory scenarios, weighted by plausibility and paired with the evidence that would resolve between them, so that sound action is possible even before the ambiguity is resolved.
TRACE: An Operational Reasoning Schema for Auditable Agentic Commitments
This paper defines TRACE (Typed Reasoning And Commitment Evidence): a typed, versioned schema for recording reasoning traces, a reference procedure for writing records against it, and one operating discipline, no durable state change without a record. The paper argues in three layers that reasoning is not in the language model: the autoregressive mechanism natively computes association; chain-of-thought and reinforcement learning inherit its limits; and the formal constructs of reasoning theory, from Socratic procedure to Pearl's ladder, are absent as machinery. The schema answers the absence with fields and tests: the TraceRecord and its causal specialization, an eight-stage reference writer, a gate-first measurement regime, the TRACE-Bench protocol, and the consumers, memory admission, plan gating, temporal regret, and verdict reuse, whose more auditable decisions are the measure of the record. A record-consumer contract states what a record guarantees and what a consumer must honor in return, making the schema an operational interface rather than a passive document. Two worked examples run in the main text: a music-lessons argument traced from sentence to typed verdict, separating association, intervention, and prescription; and a flood search-and-rescue vignette in which a predictive world model reports confident plan success that its own support and out-of-distribution scores contradict, so the record defers the commitment, requests a bounded observation, revises append-only, and clears a different branch. The vignette is illustrative, not empirical; closed-loop evaluation is left to future work, so the contribution is the schema and its contract, not a performance claim. Appendices carry the full schema, writer algorithms and cost model, clinical and policy illustrations, the benchmark protocol, convergence metrics, and usage scenarios.
When Agents Lie: Premeditation, Persistence, and Exploitation in Repeated Games
As large language models are deployed as autonomous agents that communicate intentions before acting, a critical safety question is whether agents that publicly commit to actions will honor those commitments. We place LLM agents in repeated -player games with a three-stage protocol that separates private intent, public announcement, and final action, allowing us to identify whether each deviation from a stated announcement was already planned during private deliberation. Evaluating three frontier models across six games in homogeneous and heterogeneous groups over 10 rounds, we report two findings. First, when agents deviate from their announcements, the deviation is predominantly already stated in their private plan (exceeding 90% in the highest-deception conditions), yet this is not a fixed model property: the same model ranges from perfect honesty to near-total deviation across games. Second, different models interpret announcements incompatibly, some as binding commitments and others as cheap talk, producing payoff gaps that emerge in Round~0 and persist across all 10 rounds. Systems that combine models from different providers therefore cannot assume shared announcement semantics and require empirical testing of model interactions before deployment.
TACG: Trajectory-Aware Commit Gating for Diffusion Language Model Decoding
Diffusion language models (DLLMs) generate text by iteratively denoising masked positions, exposing a trajectory of predictive distributions rather than a single instantaneous belief. Most existing decoders ignore this trajectory and commit tokens from the current snapshot alone, conflating confidence with commitment readiness: a transient top-1 peak under incomplete context can be locked in, while candidates with consistent cross-step support are delayed. We propose Trajectory-Aware Commit Gating (TACG), a training-free gate-level decoder that anchors token identities to the base posterior and uses trajectory-aware signals only to decide whether the current proposal is ready to commit. TACG combines Temporal Implicit Logits Guidance (TILG), which keeps an exponential moving average of past logits as a self-reference and contrasts the current logits against this reference in natural-parameter space, with a History Gate (HG) that enforces short-term proposal persistence before commitment. Together with a capped extra-promotion budget, these components yield a stability-constrained commit rule without auxiliary networks or extra forward passes. We evaluate TACG on LLaDA, Dream, and LLaDA2-Mini across code (HumanEval, MBPP) and math (GSM8K, MATH500) benchmarks; it typically improves or preserves accuracy while reducing denoising steps and increasing tokens per forward (TPF). The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Clarence-CV/TACG-DLLM.
EFlow: Learning Evidence Flow for Long-Video Reasoning with Adaptive Reflection
Long-video reasoning is fundamentally constrained by how models acquire and utilize visual evidence. Existing tool-augmented video frameworks often interleave temporal grounding and answer reasoning within a single trajectory, causing early semantic hypotheses to bias evidence localization. We term this failure mode premature semantic commitment, where biased grounding retrieves incomplete evidence and incomplete evidence further reinforces incorrect reasoning. To address this issue, we propose EFlow, an evidence-first video reasoning framework built upon Qwen3-VL. EFlow explicitly separates temporal grounding and logical reasoning through CoT for Temporal Grounding and CoT for Reasoning, enabling the model to retrieve relevant evidence before answer inference. In addition, EFlow introduces a confidence-aware reflection mechanism that re-evaluates the full video when retrieved evidence is potentially insufficient. We further construct dedicated trajectory datasets and train EFlow through supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and reinforcement fine-tuning. Extensive experiments across five video understanding benchmarks demonstrate that EFlow consistently improves long-video reasoning performance.
Know When to Stop: Segment-Level Credit Assignment for Reducing Overthinking
Reasoning language models frequently overthink: generating extended chains of behaviors such as hedging, approach abandonment, and self contradiction that consume tokens without improving answers. We show that these behaviors are not merely a consequence of length; even when controlling for response length, incorrect traces exhibit higher rates of unproductive self-reflection than correct ones. Addressing this requires identifying where self-reflection helps vs hurts, but obtaining these step-level annotations is costly. We observe that intermediate answer commitments within reasoning traces can provide a cheap proxy: by comparing each final answer candidate in the trace to the ground truth, we can determine whether subsequent reflection is productive without any additional supervision. Building on this insight, we propose DASH (Drift Aware advantage SHaping), which assigns segment-level credit based on whether each reasoning segment leads toward or away from correctness. On competition-level math benchmarks, DASH achieves the highest accuracy where overthinking is prevalent (AIME25: 50.8% vs. 45.4% GRPO) while reducing overthinking behaviors and achieving more productive self-correction than baselines.
Why Do Few-Step Text Latents Fail When Image Latents Work? Non-Commitment at Sharp Categorical Readouts
Deterministic few-step generation succeeds on continuous image latents but collapses to incoherent text on continuous text latents, and we show the cause is geometric rather than a training or scaling deficiency: a smooth, regularity-limited deterministic map cannot resolve a discrete branch choice before a sharp categorical readout, so few-step failure is governed by decoder sharpness, not transport accuracy. In the overlapping regime of real text autoencoders, we prove (Theorem 3) that the posterior-mean terminal step flips tokens at the rate of the latent mass in an tube around decision boundaries. Two diagnostics, DABI (readout sharpness) and CCI (categorical commitment), measured on published checkpoints show that four independently built continuous-text decoders amplify a boundary-aligned perturbation far beyond a norm-matched isotropic one (DABI from to ), while image decoders have DABI . Two mechanisms escape the continuous bound: categorical commitment (autoregressive decoders succeed despite sharper readouts) and stochastic re-injection (deterministic ODE at gives PPL 294 versus SDE 50 on the same model). In the idealized separated regime we prove matching sharp transport laws, including a dimension phase diagram: the deterministic stiffness needed to separate modes grows as once the latent dimension is (and as in fixed dimension), with a depth- hierarchy giving a -smaller per-step peak (Theorems 5-7); a coarea identity links these to the overlapping tube (Theorem 17). The result is an accuracy-depth-stiffness tradeoff: within the deterministic-continuous class the cost is irreducible, and both escapes step outside it.
Reported Confidence in LLMs Tracks Commitment More Than Correctness
Confidence is an estimate of the probability that a chosen answer is correct. Verbal confidence reports are widely used as uncertainty measures in large language models, but whether they are best understood as estimates of correctness is unclear. We test this with a two-stage abstention paradigm from the neuroscience of perceptual decision making: a model first answers and reports its confidence, then decides whether to commit it to a user or abstain. Across four non-reasoning models, prompt framings, and confidence formats, verbal confidence predicted the commit/abstain decision substantially better than whether the answer was correct. Calibrated token log-probabilities showed the opposite profile, with abstention-prediction coupled to correctness discrimination, the signature of an answer-evidence signal. After removing the variance verbal confidence shared with log-probabilities, the residual stayed aligned with commitment while its link to correctness fell to near chance. The dissociation generalised to four reasoning models across four benchmarks of varying difficulty, from hard multiple-choice to frontier-level freeform questions. Mechanistic analyses in Gemma 3 and 4 were convergent: a post-answer state known to causally support verbal-confidence generation already encoded the future abstention decision before the abstention prompt, organised mainly by that decision rather than by correctness, the two lying in approximately orthogonal directions in activation space. Steering along a verbal-confidence-specific direction causally shifted abstention. Verbal and log-probability confidence are thus not interchangeable: log-probabilities track answer evidence and correctness, whereas verbal confidence is better understood as a behaviour-facing readout of an internal commit-readiness state, challenging the practice of treating verbal reports as proxies for reliability.
Refusal Lives Downstream of Persona in Chat Models
Linear directions in activation space have been identified for both refusal and persona traits in instruction-tuned chat models, but the two have been studied as separate mechanisms. We show they interact: a compliant persona gates refusal. In Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, we extract a compliant model-persona direction and a refusal direction and intervene on both. Compliant persona steering suppresses refusal -- in Llama, the refusal rate falls from 97% to 2%. Reintroducing the refusal direction partially restores refusal at late layers but not at early ones. Projecting out the persona direction in a late-layer window restores it to baseline; projecting out a random direction does not. Refusal is therefore gated at the late-layer expression stage, downstream of where it is computed. Treating refusal as a single isolated direction misses its dependence on persona.
Governed Shared Memory for Multi-Agent LLM Systems
Multi-agent LLM environments require robust mechanisms for shared knowledge management. This paper formalizes the fleet-memory problem and identifies four foundational failure modes: unauthorized leakage, stale propagation, contradiction persistence, and provenance collapse. To address these, we define explicit systems-level primitives: scoped retrieval, temporal supersession, provenance tracking, and policy-governed memory propagation. These primitives are implemented in MemClaw, a production multi-tenant memory service, and evaluated via ArgusFleet, a reproducible harness testing four governance dimensions. Rather than a baseline comparison, this study measures a live production service, emphasizing real-world architectural insights and negative results. Key Evaluation Results Provenance: Successfully reconstructed 100% of depth-four derivation chains with correct writer identity at sub-second per-hop latency. Propagation: Demonstrated high intra-fleet visibility with zero cross-fleet leakage. Under strong write mode, write-to-visible latency was optimized to a single search round-trip. Production Architectural Issues Discovered Asymmetric Scope Enforcement: Tenant isolation held, but sub-tenant scope was initially bypassed on direct GET-by-id requests for agent-scoped credentials (disclosed and remediated during the study). Pipeline Ordering Conflict: While contradiction supersession works for admitted writes, a synchronous near-duplicate gate can prematurely reject contradictory writes before the asynchronous contradiction detector can evaluate them. Conclusion: Long-context retrieval alone is insufficient for production multi-agent memory. Governed shared memory demands explicit systems-level abstractions, and live evaluation is vital to expose enforcement and pipeline-ordering failures missed by design-only treatments.
When Agents Commit Too Soon: Diagnosing Premature Commitment in LLM Agents
Long-horizon LLM agents can fail quietly: they settle on one reading of the evidence early, then spend the rest of the run defending it. We call this premature commitment. Final-answer scoring misses the failure mode because it sees only the answer, not whether the process has already collapsed to a stable path. We define representational commitment as cross-run hidden-state convergence at a fixed reasoning step, and use it as an early diagnostic of trajectory consistency. On Llama-3.1-70B running ReAct on HotpotQA, step-4 hidden-state similarity predicts downstream behavioral consistency (r = -0.35, partial r = -0.45), with a localized temporal and layer-wise signature. The signal replicates across Qwen-2.5-72B and Phi-3-14B, and on StrategyQA (r = -0.83). It does not track correctness: committed-wrong and committed-correct questions are not separable in activation similarity. That boundary is central to the claim. Commitment tells us whether an agent has settled, not whether it is right. A runtime monitor detects inconsistent trajectories from hidden states at AUROC up to 0.97 (0.85--0.88 under a stricter split), and a prompting intervention cuts behavioral variance by 28% against a token-matched control while leaving accuracy statistically unchanged. We also test whether the signal can route self-consistency compute; on a harder benchmark it helps only modestly and is matched by a simpler output-based baseline. The result is a diagnostic for a hidden process failure, with clear limits rather than a general accuracy lever.
Coherence Under Commitment: Probing Generalization and Vacuous Memorization in LLM Logical Reasoning
Large language models (LLMs) deployed for logical reasoning in knowledge-intensive domains exhibit a subtle but critical failure: coherence can be vacuously achieved through systematic abstention. A model that withholds commitment to either entailment or refutation satisfies negation consistency while providing no utility. We introduce Coherence Under Commitment (CUC), a dual-query evaluation paradigm that jointly measures consistency and decisiveness. CUC contributes three innovations: (1) a commitment score quantifying probability mass allocated to decisive outcomes; (2) a \textbf{deterministic elicitation protocol} via normalized YES/NO log probabilities, eliminating sampling variance; and (3) a 3-way decision framework (True/False/Uncertain) operationalizing the coherence-commitment trade-off into metrics. Experiments on four open-weight LLMs (1B-3B) across 204 FOLIO examples expose a sharp frontier. Qwen2.5-3B achieves near-zero contradiction () but only coverage, while TinyLlama-1.1B reaches coverage with violations on every example. Coherence-only evaluation would rank the abstaining model first; CUC exposes this as vacuous, and the frontier generalizes to LogiQA~v2 (). We argue that evaluation must report both coherence and non-vacuous commitment and release a toolkit for standardized assessment.
Beyond the Commitment Boundary: Probing Epiphenomenal Chain-of-Thought in Large Reasoning Models
Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is the dominant paradigm for inference-time scaling in language models, yet the causal influence of individual steps on the final answer remains poorly understood. In this work, we use answer logits at the end of each reasoning step to estimate each step's causal importance to the final answer and intermediate guesses, shedding light on the answer formation process of several reasoning model families. Across diverse tasks, we find that reasoning typically crosses a commitment boundary, a sharp transition from transient intermediate guesses to a stable, high-confidence answer. This transition often happens in a single step, well before the model's reasoning block ends, and is followed by epiphenomenal CoT steps that leave the final answer probability unaltered. Using attention probes, we show that answer-formation stages can be linearly decoded from the activations of intermediate reasoning steps with high accuracy, showing robust generalization to unseen reasoning tasks. We leverage this property for early-exiting reasoning blocks at the commitment boundary location, reducing the length of CoTs up to 55% with negligible impact on model performance.
Cherry-pick Override: Unsafe Directional Commitment in LLM Judges under Mixed Evidence
LLM judges increasingly turn verdicts into system commitments. Under mixed evidence (claims with both supporting and refuting sources) this is unsafe: when the schema exposes CONFLICTING as the authorized non-directional verdict, returning SUPPORTS/REFUTES is an unauthorized directional commitment, a failure we name Cherry-pick Override (CCO). We define CCO under an explicit task contract and report it with a same-denominator diagnostic protocol paired with matched-coverage bootstrap and an apples-to-apples random-veto null. On AVeriTeC's Conflicting subset (N_C = 150), three-option judges return a directional verdict on more than 84% of mixed-evidence claims; under the typed schema, three-judge majority voting amplifies direction-on-conflict on AVeriTeC (0.887 vs. 0.840; 95% CI [+0.013, +0.080]) but does not replicate on VitaminC-Mixed. Walking an intervention ladder of common single-channel fixes (typed vocabulary, panel aggregation, confidence thresholding, validator-only filtering), each leaves a distinct residual failure: panel aggregation suppresses single-judge CONFLICTING dissent in 48% of CCO cases; the panel is well-calibrated for direction (ECE = 0.07 on pure-S/R) so confidence cannot operationally separate CCO from correct directional commits; validator-as-classifier nearly halves pure-evidence accuracy. A minimal two-channel reference probe reaches operating points neither single channel reaches; under the random-veto null its promotion to CONFLICTING is structurally targeted on AVeriTeC (empirical p < 1/2001) and weaker but in the same direction on VitaminC-Mixed, a selectivity result rather than a magnitude one. We argue for an external commitment-control layer that separates verdict generation from commitment authorization, using structural evidence and confidence as orthogonal channels and NO-COMMIT as a routed controller state.
Self-Commitment Latency: A Reward-Free Probe for Prompted Implicit Hacking
Implicit reward hacking is hard to audit when a language model's chain of thought appears benign: a final answer may be anchored by a prompt shortcut while the written reasoning still resembles ordinary problem solving. Verifier-based probes expose such behavior by measuring how early truncated reasoning contexts obtain high reward, but require a task-specific reward signal. This paper proposes a weaker-input alternative, self-commitment latency, which measures how early a prompted reasoning context commits to the model's own final answer. We evaluate the probe in a controlled paired GSM8K setting using Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct-4bit, comparing ordinary prompts with prompts that include an answer hint. Hinted contexts commit substantially earlier and with lower uncertainty than honest contexts. The primary latency metric, first-commitment latency at threshold 0.8, reaches AUROC 0.878; supporting whole-curve summaries reach AUROC 0.926 for commitment range and 0.904 for mean uncommitted mass. The signal is stronger when both prompt conditions answer correctly and remains stable across thresholds. These results show that shortcut-available reasoning contexts can leave an early behavioral commitment signature detectable without a reward model, external judge, or trained classifier.
StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment
Existing financial NLP benchmarks often rely on labels supplied by outside observers, measuring how language is perceived rather than what speakers have committed to in the market. We introduce StakeBench, an evaluation framework for language understanding grounded in market commitment. StakeBench links 560,876 comments from 2,261 resolved markets to verified position, action, and market-odds records across Polymarket and Manifold. Supervision is derived from observable market behavior. Position sides, post-comment trading actions, and market-odds trajectories replace human annotation. Four diagnostic tasks test whether models detect market commitment, identify the revealed side, anticipate future action, and perform collective odds projection. Three commitment-aware metrics measure alignment with revealed preferences rather than perceived sentiment. Validity audits and explicit interpretation boundaries help distinguish observable commitment signals from latent belief and causal market-odds impact. Across 15 LLMs and 18 topics and platform settings, models partially recover position-side signals, with Directed Accuracy from 0.506 to 0.599, but show structural failures on later tasks. Ten of the fifteen models collapse to one or two action labels in future action anticipation, and no model consistently improves on the naive odds-direction baseline in collective odds projection. Model scale is not correlated with performance, finance-domain tuning does not improve revealed-side identification, and platform incentives strongly shape higher-order results. StakeBench is packaged with evaluation code and dataset under CC-BY 4.0.
Opportunistic Target Selection: Early Directional Commitment for Query-Efficient Black-Box Adversarial Attacks
Black-box adversarial attacks that minimize only the ground-truth confidence suffer from class drift: perturbations wander through the feature space without committing to a specific adversarial class, wasting queries on diffuse, undirected progress. We introduce Opportunistic Target Selection (OTS), a lightweight wrapper that switches an untargeted attack to a targeted objective early in its trajectory, locking onto whichever non-true class currently leads. OTS requires no architectural modification to the underlying attack, no gradient access, and no a priori target-class knowledge. We validate OTS on three score-based attacks (SimBA, Square Attack with cross-entropy loss, and Bandits) across five standard ImageNet classifiers (4,500 runs). On random-search attacks, OTS closely tracks oracle performance, with gains up to +27 pp in success rate and 43% relative reduction in censored-mean iterations on ResNet-50. On gradient-estimation attacks (Bandits) and attacks with margin loss, OTS is redundant, a negative result that reinforces our interpretation of OTS as a margin-loss surrogate. On adversarially-trained models, a bimodal difficulty distribution eliminates the regime where targeting helps.
DART: Semantic Recoverability for Structured Tool Agents
When a structured tool agent fails mid-execution, the runtime faces a dilemma: replaying the entire task is safe but wasteful, while restoring from a local checkpoint is efficient but can leave committed downstream work tied to an upstream history that no longer exists. This tension is acute in commitment-sensitive settings, where rollback targets a single failed instance yet downstream consumers have already acted on its output. Existing recovery approaches provide mechanical rollback but no criterion for whether a local restore remains semantically valid after downstream commitment. We formalize this gap as semantic recoverability and address it in DART, a modular runtime that localizes the failed instance, certifies semantically recoverable boundaries of that instance, aligns checkpoints to those boundaries, and selects an admissible restore point that preserves committed downstream work under dependency and effect constraints-or blocks otherwise. Across three LLM-driven domains and external validation on a LangGraph-based substrate, DART correctly recovers all evaluated commitment-sensitive cases where baseline local recovery fails, and a five-domain safety audit finds no unsafe admitted rollbacks. These results show that controller legality does not imply semantic validity, and that sound local recovery requires an explicit admissibility check.
Hallucination as Commitment Failure: Larger LLMs Misfire Despite Knowing the Answer
Hallucination is often viewed as a direct consequence of missing knowledge: a model answers incorrectly when the correct answer is absent from its generation-time distribution, and correctly when it is present. We test this assumption by introducing a semantic notion of answer availability that aggregates token-level variants expressing the same answer concept, and asks whether the correct concept is already available at the moment the model commits to an answer. Across Qwen and Llama models from 0.8B to 72B in both Instruct and Base variants, 16-47% of Instruct hallucinations occur with substantial probability mass already on the correct concept, and the rate rises monotonically with scale. Comparing such failures against correct generations with matched semantic support, the distinguishing factor is not whether the correct concept is represented, but how its probability is distributed: correct generations concentrate mass on a single surface form, hallucinations disperse it across alternatives. The same sharpening asymmetry extends across multi-token generation and is detectable in pre-generation hidden states. Together, these results identify a single mechanism: instruction tuning sharpens answer commitment with scale, making helpfulness and confident hallucination two consequences of the same underlying disposition.
Compress the Context, Keep the Commitments: A Formal Framework for Verifiable LLM Context Compression
LLM context is not just tokens; it is a set of commitments. Long-running conversations accumulate goals, constraints, decisions, preferences, tool results, retrieved evidence, artifacts, and safety boundaries that future responses must preserve. Existing context-management methods reduce length through truncation, retrieval, summarization, memory systems, or token-level prompt compression, but they rarely specify which semantic commitments must survive compression or how their preservation should be measured. We propose Context Codec, a commitment-level framework for compressing prompts and chat histories. Context Codec represents dialogue state as typed, source-grounded semantic atoms with canonical identity, equivalence, conflict, confidence, risk, and evidence spans. It separates five concerns - extraction, normalization, representation, rendering, and verification - and introduces metrics for Critical Atom Recall, Weighted Atom Recall, Commitment Density, and round-trip recoverability. It also defines a taxonomy of semantic compression errors, a concrete normalization procedure, conservative fallback rules for low-confidence and safety-critical atoms, and Context Compression Language (CCL), an ASCII-first compact rendering of canonical JSON atoms. In a small diagnostic study, CCL-Core occupies a useful middle ground between structured prose and JSON: more explicit and auditable than prose, usually more compact than JSON, and less risky than heavily minified notation. The result is not a claim that shorthand solves compression, but a framework for making context compression verifiable: compress the conversation, keep the commitments.
Recall Isn't Enough: Bounding Commitments in Personalized Language Systems
Long-context and memory systems usually treat personalization as a recall problem. In practice, many failures occur later, when a system commits: it turns noisy hints into hard constraints, drops rare witnesses, forgets downstream obligations, or answers despite infeasibility. We introduce Contract-Bounded Evidence Activation (CBEA) with Lexicographic Commitment Validation (LCV). CBEA activates a bounded evidence set using typed coverage, tail witnesses, and consequence debt; LCV validates structured commitments before prose and routes infeasible states to repair, abstention, or recontract. Across 360 fixtures and three generation backends, CBEA+LCV reaches zero failures within validator scope at 0.49-0.60 availability over attempted runs. Raw and long-context baselines with the same LCV gate reach zero only at 0.003-0.092. A shadow oracle diagnostic marks the limit: CBEA+LCV recalls 0.012 of uncompiled visible facts, while raw recalls 0.53. The result is a bounded operating point: explicit commitment control and 74-75% lower median input payload, not universal memory dominance.
The Evaluation Trap: Benchmark Design as Theoretical Commitment
Every AI benchmark operationalizes theoretical assumptions about the capability it claims to assess. When assumptions function as unexamined commitments, benchmarks stabilize the dominant paradigm by narrowing what counts as progress. Over time, narrow evaluation reorganizes capability concepts: architectures and definitions are selected for benchmark legibility until evaluation ceases to track an independent object and instead produces a version of the target defined by its own operational assumptions. The result is a trap: evaluation frameworks treat self-reinforcing assessments as valid, both creating and obscuring structural limits on what the current paradigm can accomplish. We introduce Epistematics, a methodology for deriving evaluation criteria directly from technical capability claims and auditing whether proposed benchmarks can discriminate the claimed capability from proxy behaviors. The contribution is meta-evaluative: an audit procedure, a failure mode taxonomy, and benchmark-design criteria for evaluating capability-evaluation coherence. We demonstrate the procedure through a worked audit of Dupoux et al. (2026), a proposal that revises the dominant paradigm's theoretical assumptions at the architectural level while reproducing them in its evaluation criteria, thereby entrenching the constraint it seeks to overcome in a form the evaluation cannot detect.
When Reasoning Traces Become Performative: Step-Level Evidence that Chain-of-Thought Is an Imperfect Oversight Channel
Chain-of-thought (CoT) traces are increasingly used both to improve language model capability and to audit model behavior, implicitly assuming that the visible trace remains synchronized with the computation that determines the answer. We test this assumption with a step-level Detect-Classify-Compare framework built around an answer-commitment proxy that is cross-validated with Patchscopes, tuned-lens probes, and causal direction ablation. Across nine models and seven reasoning benchmarks, latent commitment and explicit answer arrival align on only 61.9% of steps on average. The dominant mismatch pattern is confabulated continuation: 58.0% of detected mismatch events occur after the answer-commitment proxy has already stabilized while the trace continues producing deliberative-looking text, and a vacuousness analysis shows that the committed answer does not change during these steps. In architecture-matched Qwen2.5/DeepSeek-R1-Distill comparisons, the reasoning pipeline changes failure composition more than aggregate alignment, most clearly at 32B where confabulated steps decrease as contradictory states increase. Lower step-level alignment is also associated with larger CoT utility, suggesting that the settings that benefit most from CoT are often the least temporally faithful. Paired truncation and a complementary donor-corruption test further indicate that much post-commitment text is not load-bearing for the final answer. These findings suggest that CoT can remain useful while still being an unreliable report of when the answer was formed.
PACE: Policy-Native Adaptive Decision Timing for Long-Horizon Reasoning
Long-horizon reasoning requires deciding not only what actions to take, but how many to execute open-loop before replanning. This number, the execution depth, balances replanning cost against compounding execution errors. Most current systems either fix the execution depth as a hand-tuned scalar or adjust it at inference time with heuristic rules decoupled from the policy; we argue both can be suboptimal. In this work, we treat the execution depth as a learnable, history-conditioned variable of the policy itself, and propose PACE, a model-native VLM policy that jointly predicts what to execute and for how long under a hard decision budget. We evaluate PACE on four long-horizon environments spanning fully and partially observable settings and visual and textual modalities: Sliding Puzzle, Sokoban, ALFWorld, and ScienceWorld. Across all settings, PACE improves success rate by 3.1 to 15.6 percentage points, while using fewer decisions on average, achieving empirical success-decision Pareto dominance.
Strategic commitments shape collective cybersecurity under AI inequality
The growing integration of AI into cybersecurity is reshaping the balance between attackers and defenders. When access to advanced AI-enabled defence tools is uneven, resource-limited defenders may be unable to adopt effective protection, creating persistent system vulnerabilities. We study the impact of differential AI access using an evolutionary game-theoretic model in a finite population. We first show that when high-capability defence is costly, the population is driven toward low-cost, weak-defence behaviour, sustaining attacks and weakening long-run security. To address this problem, we introduce differential access to AI defence tools by allowing defenders to choose between low- and high-capability protection based on their resources. We then examine the role of a small group of committed defenders who always adopt strong defence and influence others through social learning. Although commitment increases the prevalence of strong defence, it alone cannot stabilise secure outcomes due to high defence costs. We therefore incorporate a targeted subsidy to remove the cost disadvantage from committed defenders. Our analysis shows that subsidised commitment significantly increases strong defence adoption, suppresses successful attacks, and improves overall system resilience. Simulations across a broad parameter space confirm that subsidies consistently outperform commitment alone. In addition, social-welfare analysis shows improved defender outcomes while keeping attacker gains low. These findings suggest that targeted support for key defenders can be an effective mechanism for stabilising cybersecurity in AI-driven environments and provide a theoretical bridge between cybersecurity policy, AI governance, and strategic allocation of defensive AI capabilities.
When Does a Language Model Commit? A Finite-Answer Theory of Pre-Verbalization Commitment
Language models often generate reasoning before giving a final answer, but the visible answer does not reveal when the model's answer preference became stable. We study this question through a narrow computable object: \emph{finite-answer preference stabilization}. For a model state and specified answer verbalizers, we project the model's own continuation probabilities onto a finite answer set; in binary tasks this yields an exact log-odds code, . This target defines parser-based answer onset, retrospective stabilization time, and lead without relying on greedy rollouts or learned probes. In controlled delayed-verdict tasks with Qwen3-4B-Instruct, the contextual finite-answer projection stabilizes before the answer is parseable, with 17--31 token mean lead in the main templates and positive, shorter lead in a parser-clean replication. The signal tracks the model's eventual output rather than truth, is linearly recoverable from compact hidden summaries, is partly separable from cursor progress, and transfers as shared information without a single invariant coordinate. Diagnostics separate the measurement from online stopping, verbalizer-free belief, and causal answer control; exact steering shows local sensitivity of but not reliable generation control.
Towards Systematic Generalization for Power Grid Optimization Problems
AC Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) and Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) are fundamental optimization problems in power system operations. ACOPF serves as the physical backbone of grid simulation and real-time operation, enforcing nonlinear power flow feasibility and network limits, while SCUC represents a core market-level decision process that schedules generation under operational and security constraints. Although these problems share the same underlying transmission network and physical laws, they differ in decision variables and temporal coupling, and prior learning-based approaches address them in isolation, resulting in disjoint models and representations.We propose a learning framework that jointly models ACOPF and SCUC through a shared graph-based backbone that captures grid topology and physical interactions, coupled with task-specific decoders for static and temporal decision-making. Training includes solver supervision with physics-informed objectives to enforce AC feasibility and inter-temporal operational constraints. To evaluate generalization, we assess cross-case transfer on unseen grid topologies for ACOPF and SCUC without retraining, and systematic generalization on the UC-ACOPF problem using unsupervised, physics-based objectives and a power-dispatch consensus mechanism. Experiments across multiple grid scales demonstrate improved performance and transferability relative to existing learning-based baselines, indicating that the model can support learning across heterogeneous power system optimization problems.
NeuroState-Bench: A Human-Calibrated Benchmark for Commitment Integrity in LLM Agent Profiles
Outcome-only evaluation under-specifies whether an evaluated agent profile preserves the commitments required to solve a multi-turn task coherently. NeuroState-Bench is a human-calibrated benchmark that operationalizes commitment integrity through benchmark-defined side-query probes rather than inferred hidden activations. The released inventory contains 144 deterministic tasks and 306 benchmark-defined side-query probes spanning eight cognitively motivated failure families, paired clean and distractor variants, and three difficulty bands. The main 32-profile evaluation contains a fixed 16-profile local subset and a matched 16-profile hosted large-model subset evaluated through the same benchmark pipeline. Human calibration uses the final merged reporting scope: 104 sampled task units, 216 raw annotations, and 108 adjudicated task rows, with weighted kappa = 0.977 and ICC(2,1) = 0.977. Empirically, task success and commitment integrity diverge across this expanded grid: the success leader is not the integrity leader, 31 of 32 profiles change rank when integrity replaces task success, and integrity rankings are more stable under distractor perturbation. The primary confidence-free score HCCIS-CORE reaches 0.8469 AUC and 0.6992 PR-AUC for post-probe diagnostic discrimination of terminal task failure; the legacy full heuristic variant HCCIS-FULL reaches 0.7997 AUC and 0.6410 PR-AUC. Probe accuracy and state drift achieve slightly higher ROC-AUC, 0.8587, and better Brier/ECE, while HCCIS-CORE has substantially higher point-estimate PR-AUC and remains more closely tied to the benchmark's intended construct. The exploratory neural-augmented variant HCCIS+N is weaker overall, and a randomized subspace control approaches chance. NeuroState-Bench therefore contributes a calibrated evaluation axis for exposing commitment failures over a broader model grid than the original local-only subset.
Delayed Commitment for Representation Readiness in Stage-wise Audio-Visual Learning
Stage-wise audio-visual encoders propagate fused intermediate states across layers, making the formation of later representations depend on the readiness of earlier fusion states. Strong local audio-visual agreement provides useful correspondence evidence, yet a fused state also needs sufficient cross-layer and cross-modal support before it can reliably guide later fusion. This paper studies this issue through propagation-aware representation readiness and formulates premature perceptual commitment as a readiness-deficiency problem, where local plausibility, propagation influence, and support insufficiency jointly appear at an intermediate stage. We propose the Delayed Perceptual Commitment Network (DPC-Net), an encoder-level framework that estimates an observable readiness-deficiency surrogate, localizes the intervention-sensitive bottleneck, and applies support-aware correction with cross-layer and cross-modal evidence. DPC-Net preserves task-specific heads, losses, decoding modules, and evaluation protocols, making it applicable to different audio-visual tasks through encoder-side intervention. Experiments on audio-visual speech separation, audio-visual event localization, and audio-visual speech recognition show consistent improvements across reconstruction, localization, and recognition regimes. Further analyses on component contribution, selection criteria, counterfactual intervention, and readiness trajectories support the effectiveness of readiness-guided bottleneck correction.
A Multi-Stage Warm-Start Deep Learning Framework for Unit Commitment
Maintaining instantaneous balance between electricity supply and demand is critical for reliability and grid instability. System operators achieve this through solving the task of Unit Commitment (UC),ca high dimensional large-scale Mixed-integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem that is strictly and heavily governed by the grid physical constraints. As grid integrate variable renewable sources, and new technologies such as long duration storage in the grid, UC must be optimally solved for multi-day horizons and potentially with greater frequency. Therefore, traditional MILP solvers increasingly struggle to compute solutions within these tightening operational time limits. To bypass these computational bottlenecks, this paper proposes a novel framework utilizing a transformer-based architecture to predict generator commitment schedules over a 72-hour horizon. Also, because raw predictions in highly dimensional spaces often yield physically infeasible results, the pipeline integrates the self-attention network with deterministic post-processing heuristics that systematically enforce minimum up/down times and minimize excess capacity. Finally, these refined predictions are utilized as a warm start for a downstream MILP solver, while employing a confidence-based variable fixation strategy to drastically reduce the combinatorial search space. Validated on a single-bus test system, the complete multi-stage pipeline achieves 100% feasibility and significantly accelerates computation times. Notably, in approximately 20% of test instances, the proposed model reached a feasible operational schedule with a lower overall system cost than relying solely on the solver.
What Is the Minimum Architecture for Prolepsis? Early Irrevocable Commitment Across Tasks in Small Transformers
When do transformers commit to a decision, and what prevents them from correcting it? We introduce \textbf{prolepsis}: a transformer commits early, task-specific attention heads sustain the commitment, and no layer corrects it. Replicating \citeauthor{lindsey2025biology}'s (\citeyear{lindsey2025biology}) planning-site finding on open models (Gemma2 2B, Llama3.2 1B), we ask five questions. (Q1)~Planning is invisible to six residual-stream methods; CLTs are necessary. (Q2)~The planning-site spike replicates with identical geometry. (Q3)~Specific attention heads route the decision to the output, filling a gap flagged as invisible to attribution graphs. (Q4)~Search requires layers; commitment requires more. (Q5)~Factual recall shows the same motif at a different network depth, with zero overlap between recurring planning heads and the factual top-10. Prolepsis is architectural: the template is shared, the routing substrates differ. All experiments run on a single consumer GPU (16,GB VRAM).
Hallucination as Trajectory Commitment: Causal Evidence for Asymmetric Attractor Dynamics in Transformer Generation
We present causal evidence that hallucination in autoregressive language models is an early trajectory commitment governed by asymmetric attractor dynamics. Using same-prompt bifurcation, in which we repeatedly sample identical inputs to observe spontaneous divergence, we isolate trajectory dynamics from prompt-level confounds. On Qwen2.5-1.5B across 61 prompts spanning six categories, 27 prompts (44.3%) bifurcate with factual and hallucinated trajectories diverging at the first generated token (KL = 0 at step 0, KL > 1.0 at step 1). Activation patching across 28 layers reveals a pronounced causal asymmetry: injecting a hallucinated activation into a correct trajectory corrupts output in 87.5% of trials (layer 20), while the reverse recovers only 33.3% (layer 24); both exceed the 10.4% baseline (p = 0.025) and 12.5% random-patch control. Window patching shows correction requires sustained multi-step intervention, whereas corruption needs only a single perturbation. Probing the prompt encoding itself, step-0 residual states predict per-prompt hallucination rate at Pearson r = 0.776 at layer 15 (p < 0.001 against a 1000-permutation null); unsupervised clustering identifies five regime-like groups (eta^2 = 0.55) whose saddle-adjacent cluster concentrates 12 of the 13 bifurcating false-premise prompts, indicating that the basin structure is organized around regime commitments fixed at prompt encoding. These findings characterize hallucination as a locally stable attractor basin: entry is probabilistic and rapid, exit demands coordinated intervention across layers and steps, and the relevant basins are selected by clusterable regimes already discernible at step 0.
Neutral Substrates: A Design Constraint for Shared Records Under Persistent Interpretive Disagreement
Shared accountability records are often used by parties who may never agree about causation, responsibility, or normative interpretation. For such records, neutrality cannot be achieved by omitting contested information, because accountability requires preserving the claims parties made, with their sources and provenance. Nor can neutrality be achieved by asserting one contested interpretation as the shared base. This paper defines a neutral substrate as a shared representational layer that provides stable reference while making no object-level substrate-layer commitments to causal or normative propositions. The central design constraint is that, when causal and normative propositions are contestable across admissible frameworks and the substrate's referential commitments are common ground, the substrate's neutrality is guaranteed at design time if and only if its foundational layer is restricted to those referential commitments and attribution propositions whose attributional basis is fixed by them. Causal and normative content may still be represented, but not as object-level foundational-layer commitments: it may appear there only as the content of attributed assertions with provenance, made by some identified framework, source, agent, institution, record, or document. The representational machinery used here is standard: reification, attribution, and provenance. The contribution is the constraint: a checkable condition on the foundational layer of a shared record, stated together with the assumptions it depends on and the boundary condition under which the constraint does not apply. A neutral substrate says enough to preserve accountability, but it does not turn one party's interpretation into an object-level substrate-layer commitment. The constraint does not apply at that layer when the referential regime or attributional basis is contested among the frameworks in play.
Make an Offer They Can't Refuse: Grounding Bayesian Persuasion in Real-World Dialogues without Pre-Commitment
Large language models (LLMs) still struggle with strategic persuasion, largely because existing approaches either neglect information asymmetry or rely on unrealistic pre-commitment assumptions. We introduce a type-induced commitment-communication mechanism that grounds Bayesian Persuasion (BP) in natural language dialogue without pre-commitment: the persuader narrates their potential types (e.g., honest vs. dishonest) to dynamically construct an information schema, enabling the persuadee to perform Bayesian belief updates within the conversation itself. We implement two variants: Semi-Formal-Natural-Language (SFNL) and Fully-Natural-Language (FNL), evaluating them against strong baselines across multiple LLMs and human judges. BP strategies consistently outperform baselines: SFNL excels in logical credibility, while FNL shows superior robustness and emotional resonance. We verify that gains stem from genuine Bayesian reasoning rather than superficial formatting, and we further show that supervised fine-tuning enables small models to match the persuasive performance of much larger ones.
Calibrated Stackelberg Games: Learning Optimal Commitments Against Calibrated Agents
We introduce \emph{Calibrated Stackelberg Games (CSGs)}, a generalization of the standard Stackelberg Games (SGs) framework. In CSGs, a principal repeatedly interacts with an agent who (contrary to standard SGs) does not have direct access to the principal's action but instead best-responds to calibrated forecasts about it. This framework provides a powerful and realistic modeling tool that goes beyond assuming that agents use ad hoc and highly specified algorithms for interacting in strategic settings and instead builds on statistical foundations of forecasts and calibration. We show that in CSGs, despite both the principal and the agent having less information than in standard SGs, the principal's optimal utility remains upper and lower bounded by the Stackelberg value of the one-shot game, in both finite and continuous settings. Alongside CSGs, we develop stronger notions of calibration and corresponding algorithms that address two central challenges for calibration in game-theoretic environments. First, achieving point-wise calibration typically incurs an error that scales exponentially with the dimension of the strategy space. Second, the principal's convergence rate in CSGs depends critically on the adaptivity of the agent's calibration algorithm. To address these challenges, we establish a meaningful, efficiently achievable relaxation of calibration based on conditioning on best-response regions. This yields the first notion of calibration in games with a statistical rate that only depends on the number of agents' actions rather than the dimension of the principal's strategy space and that leads to no-swap regret for the agent. We further develop adaptive calibration algorithms for the agents that provide fine-grained, any-time calibration guarantees against adversarial sequences, enabling the principal to achieve faster convergence in CSGs.