Traffic

Traffic flow forecasting is essential to intelligent transportation systems. Large-scale traffic forecasting requires jointly modeling local spatial dependencies and cross-region context.Spatial dependencies between geographically neighboring nodes are heterogeneous due to differences in road identity and travel direction, while acquiring global information through allpairs node interactions incurs substantial computational costs. Therefore, capturing local heterogeneity while efficiently acquiring long-range context remains an important challenge in largescale traffic forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose LoReST, a Local-Region Spatial Temporal network that models spatial dependencies at two complementary granularities: node neighborhoods and road network regions. Specifically, relation-aware local aggregation captures heterogeneous dependencies within geographic neighborhoods through road and direction specific feature transformations. Cross-region interaction constructs region representations through mean pooling, exchanges long range context via inter-region attention, and broadcasts it back to nodes. By integrating local information aggregation with crossregion interaction, LoReST is able to effectively achieve spatial dependency learning in large-scale road networks. Experiments on four datasets of the LargeST benchmark show average relative reductions of 4.78%, 3.60%, and 5.75% in MAE, RMSE, and MAPE, respectively.

Accurate multi-step traffic forecasting remains challenging because observed traffic signals contain heterogeneous temporal dynamics with different characteristics and levels of predictability. Existing approaches typically model these dynamics within a unified representation or rely on predefined decomposition rules, which may limit their ability to flexibly separate persistent patterns from rapidly varying fluctuations. To address this issue, we propose the Adaptive Decomposition Network (ADNet), a component-specific forecasting framework that adaptively disentangles traffic dynamics into dominant and residual components. ADNet introduces a learnable complementary spectral decomposition mechanism that determines the contribution of each frequency bin to the two components. Unlike hard frequency partitioning, every frequency bin can contribute to both components with different learned proportions, allowing the decomposition to be optimized jointly with the forecasting objective. The reconstructed components are then modeled by two dedicated spatiotemporal forecasting branches, and their predictions are integrated to generate the final multi-step forecast. Experiments on the Alameda and Orange regions of the TraffiDent dataset show that ADNet achieves the best performance in 20 of the 24 reported region-horizon-metric comparisons, with particularly clear gains at longer forecasting horizons. Capacity-controlled ablation experiments further show that the learnable decomposition substantially outperforms a fixed decomposition and provides additional improvements beyond the dual-branch architecture alone. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of adaptive decomposition and component-specific modeling for multi-step traffic forecasting.

Connected-vehicle safety evaluations rely on coupled traffic and network simulations, but standard channel models ignore radio resource competition in 5G NR sidelink Mode-2, reporting unrealistically high message delivery in dense traffic. This study introduces resource-competition losses without requiring full protocol reimplementation. We labeled 10.5 million reception outcomes from ns-3 5G-LENA traces (calibrated on 3GPP scenarios and driven by SUMO trajectories) to fit NS3Learn - a closed-form model capturing half-duplex loss, scheduling collisions, receiver capture, and decoding. Evaluation spanned two signalized urban networks, six penetration levels (1-100%), and five random seeds per condition. NS3Learn achieved a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 in per-instant delivery compared to ns-3 5G-LENA, outperforming alternative models (0.44 and 0.55 deviation). Fitted parameters transferred to a distinct intersection with only 20% additional error. Crucially, using realistic communication models reversed simulated traffic speed trends and more than doubled predicted hard-braking events. The framework transfers reception realism between simulators via model distillation instead of full reimplementation. Every stage maps directly to an explicit physical mechanism. Researchers and transportation agencies can maintain existing simulation pipelines while accurately accounting for dense-traffic packet loss and denial-of-service impacts. Adapting to new radio configurations requires only offline refitting rather than code modification.

Urban traffic forecasting often relies on information distributed across stakeholders who may be unable to share raw data due to privacy or commercial constraints, motivating federated spatial-temporal approaches. In such federated settings, each client observes traffic over a distinct sensor subgraph with its own spatial topology and temporal dynamics, leading to significant heterogeneity across clients. Existing federated spatial-temporal methods typically rely on model parameter aggregation and provide limited mechanisms for recovering spatial dependencies across client boundaries. This introduces two key limitations. Specifically, parameter aggregation across heterogeneous graph domains tends to dilute client-specific representations, while road network partitioning breaks the propagation of traffic dynamics across client boundaries. To address these challenges, we propose FedeRICo, a federated traffic forecasting framework that combines gradient-level collaboration with boundary-aware residual communication. FedeRICo employs a dual-branch forecasting architecture in which a globally guided branch captures transferable forecasting structure, while a private residual branch preserves client-specific corrections and incorporates boundary residual signals. The global branch is coordinated through gradient alignment across all clients, enabling collaborative optimisation without destructive parameter interference. To recover cross-client spatial dependencies, boundary messages are extracted through a trend-residual decomposition that suppresses periodic structure and communicates only transient spatial-temporal residual signals between physically adjacent clients. Experiments across four real-world traffic forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that FedeRICo consistently outperforms state-of-the-art federated spatial-temporal baselines while maintaining competitive training runtime.

Accurate simulation is crucial for autonomous driving development, yet capturing real-world traffic complexity remains challenging. Existing simulators that rely on predefined rules or static data playback struggle with dynamic traffic. CRITICAL uses real traffic data and a large language model (LLM) to adjust the initial simulation configuration, but the simulated distribution still diverges from real traffic as the rollout evolves. We propose REARL, a closed-loop simulation enhancement framework that integrates real traffic data with LLMs. Real traffic data are clustered, and each cluster center is used as a representative scenario that provides typical real-world traffic patterns for the LLM. A timed sliding-window detector then monitors discrepancies in vehicle speed distribution and mean spacing between pairs of vehicles. If a metric exceeds a threshold, the LLM adjusts vehicle decision-making; otherwise the existing controller is kept. The LLM also selects a matching real vehicle from a traffic snapshot and modulates the simulated vehicle with reference to that real action. In a controlled HighD highway setting, compared with the CRITICAL baseline and a PPO-based learning baseline, REARL reduces the Hellinger distance for speed distributions to 0.3067 and the MAPE for mean spacing to 0.8371, while achieving a time headway (THW) of 22.8575 and a lane change rate of 0.0708.

Modern networks must support changing topologies, configurations, and performance objectives, motivating fast and reliable performance estimation. Network digital twins (NDTs) enable what-if analysis for performance estimation in such network scenarios, however, existing machine learning-based NDT approaches often rely on entire topology representations, which are inherently monolithic and lack reusability under topological or traffic changes in the network. This paper introduces a composable NDT approach that decomposes networks into subgraphs represented by reusable unit twins that capture subgraph structure, configuration and traffic behaviours. A lightweight composer aggregates unit twin combinations to create NDTs that predict per-route end-to-end latency through an overall topology. Evaluation across controlled synthetic topologies and diverse traffic scenarios, real-world Topology Zoo topologies, and a public NDT challenge dataset demonstrates that the composable NDTs achieve high in-distribution accuracy while remaining stable under out-of-distribution scenarios. Comparison with monolithic full topology NDTs demonstrates that our composable approach achieves reusability, while achieving comparable or superior accuracy.

Machine learning (ML) has become the dominant approach for network traffic classification, achieving very high predictive performance. However, a model is only valuable if it learns semantically meaningful and trustworthy patterns rather than exploiting spurious correlations. Conventional evaluation practices predominantly assess predictive performance. Consequently, whether the model relies on semantically meaningful patterns remains unknown. To address these challenges, we adapt the knowledge generation framework for network traffic classification. The adapted framework combines data, ML models, explainability, visualization, and expert reasoning to support the iterative exploration, verification, and refinement of model behavior and data preprocessing. The framework is grounded in findings from the literature, benchmark dataset analyses, practical experience with XAI-based traffic classification, and expert feedback, providing practical guidance for semantic model validation. By complementing predictive performance with semantic validation and human expertise, the proposed framework supports the development of network traffic classification models that are not only accurate but also robust and trustworthy.

Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a fundamental big data analytics task for intelligent transportation systems, where massive urban sensor streams exhibit heterogeneous, non-stationary, and structurally dynamic patterns. Although recent deep learning and large language model (LLM)-based methods have advanced traffic forecasting, they often remain temporally centered and lack effective coordination of temporal, spectral, pairwise spatial, and higher-order structural cues under evolving traffic regimes. To address this heterogeneous dependency coordination problem, we propose STHMoE, a Spatio-Temporal Hypergraph-Enhanced Mixture of Experts framework for urban traffic data forecasting. STHMoE decouples traffic dynamics into frequency-domain, time-domain, spatio-domain, and higher-order spatial representations, which are modeled by prompt-guided heterogeneous experts built upon a partially frozen LLM backbone. The first three experts leverage domain-specific statistical prompts, while the higher-order spatio expert uses a structural placeholder prompt and obtains dependency information from an adaptive hypergraph module. To capture evolving spatial structures in traffic data,, STHMoE jointly learns first-order graph dependencies and higher-order group interactions without predefined topologies. An entropy-aware MoE router with coefficient-of-variation load balancing adaptively fuses expert outputs while improving expert utilization and routing confidence. Experiments on 10 real-world traffic benchmarks show that STHMoE achieves competitive performance against temporal, spatio-temporal graph, and LLM-based baselines.

Reliable railway operations depend increasingly on real-time environmental intelligence delivered through wireless sensor infrastructures, a capability that 6G networks will substantially enhance through integrated sensing and edge computing. Adverse weather, particularly in Arctic regions with extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, remains a leading cause of train delays, yet most prediction approaches rely on raw meteorological inputs without exploiting domain-informed feature engineering. This paper investigates machine learning for train delay prediction using the Finland Integrated Train-Weather (FI-TW) dataset, which fuses railway operational records with observations from the Finnish Meteorological Institute's nationwide sensor network of approximately 200 stations communicating over wireless links. We evaluate three feature configurations using XGBoost at Oulu central station (101,146 observations): full weather features, instant weather observations only, and derived weather category scenarios. The category-based approach, employing hierarchical classifications such as Blizzard, Heavy Snow, and Extreme Cold, achieved an R^2 of 0.78, root mean squared error of 8.5 minutes, and mean absolute error of 3.7 minutes, representing an 11% R^2 improvement and 10% error reduction over alternative configurations. These results demonstrate that compact, domain-informed features derived from sensor streams outperform raw meteorological observations, offering bandwidth-efficient representations suitable for edge deployment over current and emerging wireless infrastructures.

Differences in vehicle kinematic characteristics between production autonomous vehicles (PAVs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs) have been limitedly investigated by empirical studies. Most recent studies rely on simulation-based models, while some further investigate low-level adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems in controlled experiments. These methods commonly adapt some time-domain metrics to characterize PAV-HV differences across limited driving conditions. However, current PAVs equipped with high-level autonomous driving systems generate driving behaviors in a black box using data-driven models. These fundamentally different mechanisms for generating behaviors may produce distinct kinematic characteristics in traffic. More importantly, these time-domain metrics cannot reflect frequency-related traffic dynamics across different driving scenarios. Thus, this study adapted a real-world PAV dataset with four PAV platforms and developed a frequency-domain framework to quantify kinematic differences between PAVs and HVs across diverse driving scenarios, including varying driving states, lighting, weather, and vehicle densities. The framework transforms kinematic signals into the frequency domain and extracts spectral features, and then compares these features between PAVs and HVs based on kernel density estimation and Wasserstein distance. The results reveal clear scenario-dependent PAV-HV spectral differences. Specifically, speed-related differences were consistently smaller during car-following than cruising, while rainy conditions consistently enlarged acceleration-related differences compared with clear conditions. These findings highlight the necessity of multi-scenario evaluations and demonstrate the value of frequency-domain analysis for characterizing PAV-HV kinematic differences under real-world conditions.

The development of autonomous driving demands comprehensive testing in mixed-traffic scenarios involving vulnerable road users (VRUs), where purely artificial agents often fail to capture authentic human social negotiations. While human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulators enable safe investigation of these interactions, existing multi-agent platforms struggle with the network latency and synchronization constraints required for high-fidelity haptic feedback. To resolve this, we present CARLAverse, an open-source, multimodal simulation ecosystem. Extending modular hardware abstraction, CARLAverse integrates driving (DrivoCARLA), cycling (CycloCARLA), and pedestrian (WalkoCARLA) simulators into a shared virtual environment. Its core methodological contribution is a distributed physics architecture: latency-critical ego dynamics and high-frequency force feedback are computed locally on client nodes, while a central CARLA server orchestrates non-player character (NPC) physics and global traffic. By decoupling haptic control loops from network bottlenecks, CARLAverse enables scalable, cross-institutional HITL experiments without compromising physical immersion. Code and documentation: https://git.ieem-ka.de/simulator-environments/carlaverse

Traffic flow prediction is a core supporting technology for intelligent transportation systems. It uses historical data to infer future traffic dynamics in specific areas, thereby helping to alleviate congestion and improve resource allocation efficiency. Traditional neural networks struggle to break through accuracy limits due to their reliance on singular feature modeling, while large language models (LLMs) suffer from insufficient capture of spatial topological information and mining spatiotemporal correlation. This study proposes a Dynamic Fusion Large Language Model (DF-LLM) for traffic flow prediction. The model incorporates three core components: spatiotemporal embedding module, spatiotemporal fusion module, and LLM backbone. The spatiotemporal embedding module enables synergistic representation of multi-scale spatiotemporal features. The spatiotemporal fusion module integrates spatial topology and dynamic dependencies via graph convolution. The LLM backbone adopts a differentiated parameter adaptation strategy to balance training efficiency and traffic data adaptability. Additionally, it introduces a context aggregation attention module to strengthens global dependencies. More importantly, the LLM backbone takes the residual connections to mitigate the gradient vanishing in deep networks. Experiments show that DF-LLM has achieved better performance by comparing the metrics on all the four datasets.

Real-time urban governance depends not only on knowing where people are, but on how they move between places, directional flows that could be conventionally resolved by tracking individuals through space, i.e., expensive to sustain and built on traces that are highly unique and readily re-identifiable. Here we show that this directional structure need not be observed to be known: aggregated counts which cities already collect retain enough information to reconstruct the temporal evolution of origin-destination (OD) matrix. Using an uncertainty-aware physics-informed framework, we infer future OD flows from area-level counts alone across twelve mobility datasets from cities in the United States and China, reaching accuracy comparable to models that take historical OD matrices as input. Probabilistic modeling corrects the systematic underestimation of sparse, high-value corridors and yields calibrated predictions consistent with observed flows. Architectures that respect the generation-before-assignment logic of transport planning recover interactions more faithfully, indicating that location-level spatial heterogeneity should be preserved before pairwise interactions are reconstructed. Because inference requires only aggregated observations after training, recovering interactions this way reduces reliance on continuous individual-level tracking, pointing toward a more deployable and less exposure-heavy basis for real-time urban intelligence.

We present ResLearn-XR, a residual learning framework for predicting eXtended Reality (XR) network traffic and estimating Quality-of-Experience (QoE) risk. ResLearn-XR adopts a two-stage temporal learning structure comprising a base sequence prediction model augmented with task-specific residual learning components to improve adaptability to bursty, non-stationary XR traffic dynamics. The residual learning stages operate in the value space for continuous XR traffic forecasting and in the logit space for probabilistic QoE risk estimation. \rev{For the QoE-risk branch, we introduce a Data Descriptor Algorithm (DDA), a causal feature-construction module that converts packet-level application-layer observables into frame-timing-aware descriptors suitable for encrypted traffic analysis. We also construct an XR Traffic-QoE dataset that pairs continuous XR traffic traces with session-level user-reported QoE labels. ResLearn-XR reduces SMAPE by up to 17.84% across frame-count, frame-size, and inter-arrival-time prediction, while reducing QoE-risk estimation SMAPE by up to 87.8% over single-stage baselines.

Data-residency constraints force enterprises to self-host LLMs, but continuous adoption of newer models without decommissioning their predecessors expands the serving fleet, fragmenting a finite GPU pool. We consolidate traffic from over 200 internal applications onto a single model by closing quality gaps identified through production error analysis along three axes: instruction following, function-calling, and internal task distribution. Quality is tracked by offline benchmarks stratified to production traffic and scored by deterministic verifiers or calibrated LLM judges. Rather than optimising all objectives jointly, which introduces cross-domain reward interference, we train a separate GRPO expert per axis and merge them via two-stage SLERP. Each expert's reward exposes a distinct failure mode, namely semantic collapse, over-calling, and verbosity hacking, each requiring a domain-specific fix. In non-reasoning mode the recipe surpasses a ${\sim}7\times$ larger by total parameters baseline on the in-house Arena with 69.6 to 65.8, instruction following with 0.85 to 0.83, and function-calling with 0.79 to 0.77, while lifting general dialogue benchmarks. The model absorbs 50% of platform traffic, 116M requests per month, at a fraction of the serving cost.

Road traffic noise remains a major environmental challenge, yet most speed management strategies are static and do not respond to short-term variations in traffic noise emissions. Although variable speed limit (VSL) systems are widely deployed for safety and congestion mitigation, traffic noise is rarely treated as an explicit operational control objective. This paper proposes a noise-aware VSL framework that integrates aggregated traffic-state estimation with a simplified CNOSSOS-EU-based emission indicator. A stage-based controller with time-varying reference thresholds dynamically adjusts discrete speed-limit levels in response to estimated emission conditions. The framework is evaluated using microscopic traffic simulation calibrated with empirical motorway data and replicated across multiple stochastic realisations. Over a 24-hour evaluation period, the adaptive strategy reduces the receiver-based equivalent sound level by 2.9 dB(A) relative to unrestricted traffic conditions, while maintaining an average vehicle speed approximately 11.3 km/h higher than a permanently imposed low-speed regime. Period-wise analysis shows that speed reductions are activated selectively when emission levels approach calibrated targets, rather than enforcing a constant intermediate limit. Traffic stability indicators reveal moderate increases in speed variability compared with unrestricted operation, but substantially lower braking intensity than under uniform low-speed enforcement. These results demonstrate the feasibility of integrating environmental performance indicators into operational speed control, providing a practical complement to conventional infrastructure-based noise mitigation measures.

Reinforcement learning achieves strong traffic signal control performance in simulation, yet policies trained in simulators often fail once deployed in the real world, a failure known as the Sim-to-Real gap. When RL is applied to traffic signal control, this gap arises from several sources: sensing, action execution, traffic dynamics, and the control objective. Their relative impact and the reliability of existing Sim-to-Real mitigation methods remain insufficiently understood, and the field lacks a standard benchmark for systematically measuring the gap and evaluating mitigation methods. We present Sim2Signal, a benchmark that decomposes the Sim-to-Real gap into observation, action, transition, and reward gaps, corresponding to mismatches in the four components of the underlying MDP, and induces each gap in isolation under a shared protocol. We evaluate 18 mitigation methods on 2 base controllers, across 33 gap settings and 10 calibrated networks built from 5 real-world locations. We find that direct transfer consistently degrades performance across all four gap sources, but the severity of the degradation does not predict the effectiveness of mitigation. Instead, mitigation effectiveness depends strongly on the network and gap setting: outside the action gap, a method that helps in one case may fail in another. The most effective methods generally estimate what the gap changes, rather than make the policy insensitive through domain randomization or invariant representations. Our code is available at https://github.com/DaRL-LibSignal/Sim2Signal

Accurate traffic flow prediction is fundamental to intelligent transportation systems, playing a pivotal role in urban mobility optimization and smart city development. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) integrated with time series forecasting have emerged as promising solutions, two critical limitations persist: (1) the quadratic complexity of attention-based architectures hinders real-time deployment in large-scale networks, and (2) high-frequency noise in sensor data significantly degrades prediction reliability. These challenges are particularly acute in metropolitan scenarios where both computational efficiency and noise robustness are paramount. To address these limitations, we introduce \textbf{ButterMamba}, a novel and efficient framework based on State Space Models (SSMs). ButterMamba consists of two key components: (1) a Butterworth Spectral Filtering module that preprocesses the data by removing high-frequency noise, allowing the model to focus on significant underlying trends, and (2) a Spatial-Temporal State Mixer that uses a parallel Mamba architecture to efficiently capture both long-range temporal dependencies and complex spatial correlations across the road network. By decoupling noise filtering from spatial-temporal modeling, ButterMamba achieves superior predictive accuracy with linear computational complexity. Extensive experiments on three public datasets demonstrate that ButterMamba not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy but also considerably reduces training time and memory usage.

As air traffic volumes in the National Airspace System continue to expand, in particular at low altitude, the need for scalable decision support tools used by air traffic controllers will also require more development. This article introduces Voice-to-Trajectory for Air Traffic Control, a joint voice communication-flight trajectory data embedding framework, that can be a component of situational awareness in congested airspaces, and assist the development of tools for ATC as they reason in real-time over Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast trajectories, or the intent expressed by pilots in natural language. We show that these data modalities are not independent and represent a common physical referent: an aircraft flying through the airspace. V2TATC maps a voice instruction and the trajectory of the addressed aircraft to nearby points in a single latent space that can be queried in both directions. It combines a self-supervised trajectory encoder, a frozen speech encoder, a contrastive joint embedding, and a bijective lifting via normalizing flows. We demonstrate V2TATC's effectiveness on the San Francisco Bay Area, for its concentration of major airports, and its mix of commercial and general aviation traffic. Lastly, we release a novel paired voice-trajectory dataset, and report experiments on cross-modal retrieval, ablations, and latent-space analysis.

Although Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have made significant advances in spatio-temporal traffic forecasting, their performance is limited when they rely solely on sensor proximity or road-network topology. This paper presents a spatio-temporal prediction framework, developed to incorporate knowledge in various forms. This framework aims to improve sensor-level, contextual understanding of the environment. A general-purpose knowledge graph (e.g., Wikidata) is used to create semantic subgraphs around traffic sensors and generate knowledge graph embeddings that capture meaningful relationships, such as nearby points of interest, administrative hierarchies, and the functional roles of locations. These embeddings are then fused with conventional traffic sensor graphs to provide additional adjacency matrices informed by semantics. This allows GNNs to learn the semantic context beyond physical connectivity. This study differs from previous research in two key ways. Firstly, rather than proposing a novel GNN architecture, it demonstrates the general impact of external knowledge on prediction accuracy. Secondly, experiments with well-established traffic forecasting approaches show that external knowledge provides additional information that street network data alone cannot convey. The results show that integrating data from general-purpose knowledge graphs and sensor networks through data fusion can enhance the prediction accuracy of traffic forecasting models, and offers a potential pathway toward improved interpretability.

Robust traffic simulators are crucial for developing and testing autonomous vehicles to reduce the costly, labor-intensive real-world data collection process and the need for physical presence on the road. However, existing simulators require agents' initial states to generate trajectories, which limits scalability and diversity due to restrictions on the given initial states. While data-driven agent initialization has been widely studied, the generated initial states are not interpretable in terms of why the agents are initialized at those specific locations. Given known initial states, trajectory generation is also a challenging problem, as the model must learn the variability of the destination and how agents should reach it over time. In this paper, we propose TrafficDiffuser, a top-down traffic scenario generation framework that generates high-level traffic scenarios, defined by initial and goal state pairs, by jointly modeling them. The high-level scenario generation makes initial states better interpretable and reduces trajectory generation into as simple as an infilling problem. We demonstrate how the generated high-level traffic scenarios can be used, including constraining based on different trajectory modes and integrating them with existing trajectory generation models. We conduct extensive experiments on the Argoverse 2 motion prediction dataset to evaluate how well the generated outputs capture real-world distributions. In addition to generating goal states, TrafficDiffuser outperforms the next-best approach for agent initialization, reducing speed distribution distance by 55.3% and the off-road rate by 2.8%.

Airport landside traffic centers connect terminal arrivals with taxis, ride-hailing vehicles, private cars, buses, metro services, parking facilities, and terminal-area roadways. Peak arrivals can create coupled congestion across passenger queues, vehicle queues, pickup berths, storage areas, and access roads. This study proposes a QUBO-inspired computational framework for bottleneck diagnosis and dynamic dispatch in this setting. Shanghai Pudong International Airport and Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport serve as case airports. A five-minute state model links passenger arrivals, vehicle supply, pickup berth service, vehicle storage, and road capacity. Bottleneck diagnosis uses service intensity, road demand saturation, bottleneck frequency, queue severity, shadow-price leverage, and a composite congestion severity index. Two dispatch schemes are tested under consistent demand inputs: finite-action model predictive control and quadratic-unconstrained-binary-optimization-inspired simulated annealing. In the strong-peak baseline scenario, the QUBO-inspired method reduces the final passenger queue from 3445 to 2477 passengers at Shanghai Pudong and from 2053 to 1482 passengers at Hangzhou Xiaoshan. Case results indicate different dominant bottlenecks. Shanghai Pudong is more affected by road saturation, whereas Hangzhou Xiaoshan is more affected by pickup berth service. Robustness tests under demand, supply, service, road-capacity, modal-share, and random-noise perturbations show retained queue-reduction benefits under the tested uncertainty levels.

Research and Education Networks (RENs) serve as critical infrastructure for scientific discovery, yet they face a unique security paradox: their normal traffic patterns which are characterized by massive, bursty "elephant flows" are statistically indistinguishable from volumetric attacks such as DDoS to conventional monitoring systems. This similarity leads to high false-positive rates in anomaly detection, blinding security operators to genuine threats. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a high-fidelity traffic forecasting framework designed to establish dynamic security baselines for RENs. Leveraging an exclusive 57-day Internet2 dataset spanning ten backbone routers (13.7 billion packets), we perform the first large-scale benchmark of anomaly-aware forecasting models in this domain. We systematically evaluate six model families, from SARIMA to state-of-the-art long-sequence architectures (TiDE, PatchTST), across 960 experimental configurations. Our results demonstrate that these advanced architectures, particularly TiDE, reduce baseline prediction error by 30-42% compared to traditional methods ($p < 0.001$), significantly improving the distinction between legitimate scientific bursts and potential anomalies. Furthermore, we introduce a novel anomaly-integration strategy that improves model robustness by 3.3% in the presence of noise. This work provides the first statistically validated framework for distinguishing scientific workflows from network attacks, enabling more autonomous and resilient network security operations.

We study the problem of learning compact rule-based compressors for structured network traffic. Each packet is a record of header fields that are highly redundant within a flow, and a compressor is a small set of rules matching such records and replacing predictable fields with short codes. We cast rule learning as a two-stage problem: (i) an unsupervised structure-discovery stage that recursively partitions training packets using a normalized entropy-ratio criterion robust to small samples, and (ii) a constrained selection stage that uses dynamic programming to pick the rule subset maximizing expected compression gain under a hard budget on the number of installable rules. We instantiate the framework on Static Context Header Compression (SCHC), the IETF standard for rule-based header compression in constrained networks, and evaluate it on four real-world Internet-of-Things and 5G core-network datasets. Our method, Robust Entropy Clustering for Adaptive comPression (RECAP), surpasses expert-engineered rule sets with a small number of learned rules and removes the need for manual rule design.

Accurate traffic forecasting is essential for proactive resource management in edge computing, where service demand evolves dynamically across both space and time. In practical cellular edge systems, traffic exhibits strong spatial correlations among neighboring service regions and long-range temporal dependencies driven by user mobility and application behavior. Existing recurrent forecasting approaches can capture short-term dynamics but often struggle to model long-horizon traffic evolution under non-stationary conditions. To address this challenge, we propose a spatiotemporal graph Transformer framework that jointly models spatial interactions and temporal dependencies for traffic forecasting in edge computing. The framework employs graph neural networks to capture spatial correlations among service regions and leverages Transformer-based self-attention to learn long-range temporal patterns from historical traffic observations. By decoupling spatial representation learning from temporal reasoning, the proposed approach provides an effective mechanism for large-scale spatiotemporal traffic modeling. Extensive experiments on a real-world cellular network dataset demonstrate that the proposed graph Transformer consistently outperforms recurrent graph-based baselines, including GCN-RNN, GCN-LSTM, and GCN-GRU models, across multiple forecasting horizons. The resulting forecasts enable more effective proactive resource provisioning and reduce overload risk compared with reactive management strategies. These results highlight the potential of graph-enhanced attention mechanisms for building intelligent and adaptive edge computing systems.

Real-time bidding (RTB) ad exchanges typically forward nearly all incoming requests to demand-side platforms (DSPs), even though only a small fraction receive bids. This over-distribution weakens auction outcomes: DSPs throttle participation under compute and budget constraints, reducing the effective use of limited bidding capacity. We present a competition-aware request dispatch framework that uses distributional bid prediction and probabilistic forwarding to decide whether each request should be sent to each DSP. The system adapts per-DSP thresholds over time through lightweight policy optimization to track non-stationary market conditions. We evaluate the framework through four sequential online experiments on a production platform serving over 20 billion daily requests. A full multi-DSP deployment reduces DSP request volume under the policy by 34.2% while increasing net revenue by 4.6% (p<0.001) in a recent 14-day window after an initial DSP adaptation period. Further analysis highlights strong heterogeneity across traffic segments and reveals that aggregate metrics can be misleading. Segment-level and per-DSP analyses suggest that the policy surfaces comparative advantages among DSPs, improving monetized outcomes without increasing overall request volume.

This thesis addresses fundamental challenges in traffic scene prediction for autonomous driving by introducing robust and computationally efficient models based on polynomial representations. While conventional sequence-based representations often struggle with noise and generalization, this work demonstrates that polynomial representations offer significant advantages in computational efficiency, generalization, and prediction plausibility. Through theoretical analysis and empirical validation, this thesis demonstrates that moderate-degree polynomials capture real-world motion dynamics with high fidelity without constraining predictive performance. Building on this foundation, a prediction model representing both trajectories and map geometry with polynomial representations achieves near state-of-the-art accuracy on standard benchmarks while substantially improving generalization under distribution shift. Extending this concept, a diffusion- based generative framework enables multi-agent scene generation, producing traffic continuations that are more plausible and kinematically consistent than those generated by conventional baselines. Evaluations on the Argoverse 2 and Waymo Open datasets confirm that polynomial representations reduce computational cost, enhance cross-dataset generalization, and yield smoother trajectories and higher behavioral plausibility. The findings reveal that standard in-distribution evaluation and regression-based metrics may fail to reflect true model generalization and prediction plausibility. By providing theoretical justification and empirical validation, this dissertation estab- lishes polynomial trajectory representations as an efficient, expressive, and generalizable foundation for traffic scene prediction in safety critical autonomous driving.

In Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based surveillance offers an innovative solution to traffic surveillance with wide coverage and real-time data collection capabilities. In comparison to fixed ground-based infrastructure, UAVs are able to respond to dynamic traffic but present challenges such as vehicle detection at varying altitudes, compensation for motion-induced image variations and efficient processing of high-resolution images. Deep learning has been largely beneficial on improving the detection accuracy; however, for practical deployment, a critical assessment of the accuracy, latency, and harmonization with current transportation systems needs to be carefully considered. This survey reviews recent advancements in the UAV-based traffic monitoring, with a primary focus being deep neural network models for traffic analytics in various urban settings. Three main challenges identified in the literature are ensuring compatibility with traffic control systems, achieving real-time processing to optimize traffic flow, and maintaining robust detection in different environmental conditions. Existing solutions often lack comprehensive frameworks for utilizing UAV captured data to respond to incidents and manage traffic effectively. Future research should focus on optimal detection models, edge processing, and adaptive control integration to improve the responsiveness of urban traffic management.

Realistic and diverse trajectory generation is central to enabling higher levels of vehicle automation. While rule-based and classical learning-based methods may struggle to capture the complexity of traffic behavior, generative models have already demonstrated in other fields that they can handle a comparable level of complexity. In this paper, we build upon previous work on generative adversarial network (GAN)-based semantic bird's-eye-view traffic generation and extend the proposed framework in several key aspects. We improve the semantic representation, replace the trajectory extraction procedure with a graph-based association method, and systematically investigate increasingly larger fields of view. In addition, we introduce a quantitative evaluation framework to assess hallucinations and object permanence in generated videos. Our experiments demonstrate that the framework generalizes to larger and more complex traffic scenes while maintaining statistically realistic trajectories and coherent spatial relationships between traffic participants. Within 150GPU hours of training and with inference times below 20ms for scenes of up to 20s, our results demonstrate that video-based GANs remain an efficient and scalable approach for realistic trajectory generation, even in substantially larger traffic scenes, making them well suited for downstream tasks such as prediction, planning, and simulation in automated driving.

Traffic congestion prediction is essential for congestion mitigation, but the COVID-19 pandemic and related control measures altered travel behavior and increased prediction complexity. This study predicts congestion in Alameda County, California, during pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown periods. Weather, seasonality, and COVID-19 variables are incorporated, and Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation is used to select important features and reduce overfitting. Support vector regression, multiple linear regression, recurrent neural networks, and long short-term memory networks are trained and optimized. Because LSTM is more sensitive to hyperparameter settings, an adaptive parameter selection approach is used, while SVR and RNN are manually tuned. Performance is evaluated using Normalized Root Mean Square Error. Bidirectional LSTM consistently performs best across all periods because it captures temporal dependence in both directions. Integrated Gradients is used to interpret Bi-LSTM predictions, and SHapley Additive exPlanations is applied to SVR. New COVID-19 cases have a mainly negative effect on congestion during lockdown and post-lockdown, likely due to greater risk awareness, voluntary travel reduction, and compliance with mobility restrictions. In the post-pandemic period, higher hospitalization reduces travel and congestion, while higher fuel prices do not prevent a shift toward private vehicles and therefore increase congestion.

Disordered traffic flow is characterized by weak or non-existent lane discipline in the presence of strong vehicle heterogeneity and continuous lateral interactions, challenging traditional lane-based modeling assumptions. This study presents an empirical study of macroscopic and microscopic aspects of disordered traffic using high-resolution UAV trajectory data collected on an urban arterial. A two-dimensional extension of Edie's framework is applied to quantify aggregate traffic variables and produce a two-dimensional fundamental diagram, revealing that traffic states cannot be adequately represented using one-dimensional formulations and highlighting the persistent role of lateral redistribution. The propagation of congestion is estimated directly from the spatiotemporal speed fields, demonstrating the emergence of coherent stop-and-go waves and showing a similar dynamics as conventional lane-based flow, in spite of the heterogeneous vehicle interactions. At the microscopic level, steady-state follower-leader identification is used to examine desired time gaps and minimum lateral spacing, vehicle dimension distributions, and kinematic characteristics, revealing pronounced inter-class heterogeneity that explains disordered traffic behavior. The study provides an empirical framework linking vehicle-level interactions and aggregate traffic dynamics and establishes a data-driven basis for the calibration and validation of traffic models for disordered mixed traffic systems.

Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction is a core component of intelligent transportation systems. As traffic congestion patterns become increasingly dynamic in large cities, maintaining high prediction accuracy poses a major challenge for ride-hailing platforms. Existing methods either fail to adapt to irregular traffic patterns and sudden congestion, or suffer from new distributions without disentangling long-term trends from short-term fluctuations, thereby degrading model performance in real-world scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose DSETA, an incrementally updated Dual-Stage ETA prediction framework. Specifically, the continual learning process is divided into \textit{inter-day} and \textit{intra-day} stages. We first design the \textit{intra-day} learning stage, which relies entirely on real-time data to enable dynamic adaptation to short-term traffic patterns caused by events like holidays or accidents. Next, we develop the \textit{inter-day} learning stage, which leverages aggregated historical data from a short time window to capture knowledge of long-term distribution shifts, such as seasonal trends and traffic network evolution. Subsequently, to prevent catastrophic forgetting and preserve knowledge of regular patterns, we explore a \textit{Historical Traffic Knowledge Consolidation} module. Finally, we validate DSETA's effectiveness and robustness through extensive offline and online experiments conducted on real-world datasets from DiDi's platform. Online A/B tests across three major cities including Beijing, Wuhan, and Xi'an consistently demonstrated performance gains, achieving MAE reductions of 6.62%, 0.73%, and 2.40% respectively. This framework has been successfully deployed in DiDi's production environment, processing hundreds of millions of daily requests and validating its strong performance in industrial applications.

Traffic forecasting by graph-based AI is a critical component of intelligent transportation systems, motivating security research on robustness to malicious sensor readings. We argue that prior robustness evaluations are largely shaped by unrealistic threat models and untargeted objectives, so both attacks and defenses must be revisited. We study a practical adversary with limited model knowledge and the ability to monitor and manipulate only a few road sensors. More importantly, practical attacks can be localized to specific links or routes, causing incorrect estimated arrival times or unnecessary rerouting while leaving the broader network largely unaffected. This targeted setting remains underexplored, and defenses such as adversarial training do not transfer well from the norm-bounded attacks they train on to structurally different, physics-aware attacks that mimic genuine congestion. We therefore reframe robustness as a detection problem, introducing a learned physics-informed detector whose output is fed to a hardened forecaster as an input feature and trained against adaptive attacks with the forecaster fixed. We evaluate across a variety of model architectures and benchmarks. The physics-aware attack multiplies target-link error several-fold while the network-wide error barely moves, and adversarial training, tuned to norm-bounded perturbations, barely dents it. Our detection--mitigation defense improves even on adversarial training hardened against the physics-aware attack itself, on $13$ of $15$ model--dataset settings and by the widest margin on a held-out attack, at near-zero clean cost. The results emphasize the need to examine abstracted AI adversarial attacks under application-specific constraints to assess their true security impacts.

Centrally-managed Wi-Fi solutions are increasingly leveraging Distributed Artificial Intelligence (AI) to predict key operational statistics of Access Points (APs) and proactively optimize network performance. In this context, Clustered Federated Learning (CFL) represents a fitting methodology, enabling the generation of multiple AI models that account for diverse statistical properties of the APs data distribution. However, identifying informative clusters for grouping APs models remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing a novel CFL tool integrating a two step clustering procedure. Initially, multiple clustering solutions are generated and filtered based on a minimum set of desired clustering criteria. Subsequently, if no solutions meet sufficient quality metrics, a global model is produced by aggregating all AP models. Otherwise, the final clustering solution is selected as the one that maximizes the informativeness (quantified via differential entropy) for the smallest cluster. Our results, focusing on a Wi-Fi traffic prediction problem, demonstrate that the developed CFL tool achieves the best predictive performance among all evaluated distributed strategies and the lowest communication and energy footprint among the clustered ones, exceeding the cost of single-model FL only in the regimes where it markedly improves accuracy.

Traffic prediction is a core task in intelligent transportation systems, supporting applications such as adaptive signal control, route guidance, and ride-hailing dispatch. Deep learning models, including graph convolutional networks, recurrent networks, and Transformers, achieve strong results on standard benchmarks, but their architectures are designed by hand, requiring significant expert effort and producing models that often generalize poorly across cities and datasets. Neural Architecture Search (NAS) offers a systematic alternative to manual design. It automates the search over candidate architectures of deep learning models, finding designs that match the spatial-temporal structure of traffic data without manual trial and error. This survey reviews NAS methods applied to traffic prediction, organized by search strategy: gradient-based methods, evolutionary methods, and one-shot weight-sharing methods. For each category, we analyze how the search space is designed to cover spatial and temporal traffic operators, and how the search strategy balances cost against architecture quality. We also discuss open challenges, computational scalability to large road networks, manual search space design, cross-city generalization, dynamic graph structure, and the open question of NAS for spatial-temporal foundation models, and identify directions for future research.

Traffic forecasting is important for efficient traffic management and route planning in smart cities. Existing traffic forecasting studies typically assume fixed sensor graphs, overlooking the continuous evolution of real-world traffic networks, e.g., ongoing road network construction and evolving human mobility patterns. These dynamic changes can substantially degrade conventional forecasting models, motivating test-time adaptation (TTA) to efficiently adapt pretrained models during deployment. However, applying TTA to evolving traffic sensor networks remains challenging in two aspects. First, topology expansion introduces new sensors and connections, continuously reshaping the sensor graph. Second, tem- poral shifts vary in time scale and stability, requiring differentiated adaptation to long-term and short-term shifts. In this study, we address these challenges by proposing A2TTA, an Anchored-and-Agile Test-Time Adaptation framework for evolving traffic sensor networks, which transforms topology-induced forecasting errors into an expandable output calibration problem and separates tem- poral adaptation into persistent global correction and agile context-specific specialization. By jointly addressing topology evolution and multi-scale temporal shifts, A2TTA enables efficient and robust adaptation to continuously evolving traffic environments. Extensive experiments on ten real-world traffic networks demonstrate that A2TTA consistently improves forecasting performance across different backbones, datasets, and prediction horizons. Our code is available in https://github.com/lixus7/A2TTA.

Autonomous fleets enable mobility platforms to coordinate idle vehicles directly, making fleet-wide rebalancing possible. However, two obstacles limit reliable deployment: overlapping regional and local traffic patterns can hide roads that remain useful for dispatch, and mobility drift can make a trained policy unreliable. Existing spatial aggregation mixes these patterns, while updating all parameters from limited recent data is costly and can damage stable knowledge. We propose \name, a framework that connects a dispatch-oriented multi-scale graph wavelet module with Drift-Guided Layer-Selective Optimization (DGLS). The first module addresses the representation challenge by separating graph-frequency patterns and weighting each scale according to its value for demand prediction and feasible rebalancing. DGLS addresses the adaptation challenge by measuring Dispatch-weighted Spectral Drift, selecting affected layers within a resource budget, and separating short shocks from persistent changes through a drift-aware fast--slow update. Candidate validation further rejects updates that fail to improve held-out dispatch reward without worsening monitored service or safety constraints. Experiments on both real-world datasets and simluated environments demonstrate the effectiveness of \name\ in comparing with state-of-the-art methods. The source code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MobiWave-40F8/.

Predicting traffic flow is crucial to optimizing transportation systems and improving urban mobility. Many graph convolution-based models have been proposed to extract spatial-temporal features and predict traffic flow. However, most focus on spatial-temporal and semantic correlation in topological relationships. There are two primary problems to address. Firstly, the convolutional structure in the model focuses on utilizing static spatial dependencies and spatial-temporal relationships in topological structures, while neglecting the different information propagation delays between adjacent nodes in the convolution. Secondly, these methods often stack a large number of complex structures, resulting in a substantial increase in computational time during the model training phase, thereby disregarding the model's requirements for timeliness. In this paper, we propose a novel network called the Attention-Based Spatial-Temporal Fusion Graph Convolution Network (A-STFGCN). We design a spatial-temporal fusion block to extract the spatial-temporal feature correlations with propagation delay errors removed and to capture both long-term and short-term temporal characteristics of the data within a multi-head self-attention mechanism based on a mask matrix. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves the best overall performance while having good computation and data utilization efficiency compared with the eight baseline methods.

Road crashes remain among the gravest threats to public safety, and preventing them is a defining task of transportation systems worldwide. Much of that harm concentrates at hotspots, yet a hotspot is less a place than an episode; it emerges quietly at an intersection or along an arterial, intensifies for weeks, then subsides, only to reappear elsewhere. Enforcement guided by maps of past crashes inevitably trails this cycle, patrolling yesterday's hotspots while tomorrow's form unwatched. Breaking that lag requires three capabilities at once: detecting hotspots as they are born, forecasting where they will sit next week, and following each one through its life. We introduce HERALD (Hotspot Emergence, Risk Anticipation, and Life-cycle Dynamics), a unified deep learning framework that provides all three from a single statewide model. HERALD distills each county's recent crash history into weekly risk maps and forecasts the next with a CNN--Transformer, whose mixture-of-experts lets one model serve dense urban cores and sparse rural corridors alike. Each forecast is anchored in the county's long-run crash geography, sharpened by the self-exciting effect of recent crashes, and paired with explicit warnings of where new hotspots are about to appear. Followed over time, every hotspot acquires a legible life story, from birth through growth and stability to decline and death. Across six heterogeneous Wisconsin counties, HERALD forecasts more accurately than five identically trained baselines, locates hotspots most precisely, and flags emerging risks before they take hold. A single adjustable setting trades accuracy for extra sensitivity where deployment demands it. The result shifts hotspot management from mapping the past to anticipating the future.

Network-wide traffic volume estimation typically relies on propagating measurements from fixed sensors, making performance highly dependent on sensor density and limiting deployment in sparsely instrumented networks. We propose a link-level learning framework that estimates hourly traffic volumes from widely available territorial data only, including probe speed profiles, road and topological descriptors, along with weather observations. A supervised local mapping is learned from sparse sensor measurements and evaluated under two generalization settings: intra-network (unseen links within the training network) and inter-network (unseen city). This formulation frames traffic volume estimation as a spatial out-of-distribution generalization problem under sparse supervision. To enhance spatial robustness, we introduce a capacity-aware formulation that models volume as the product of a link-specific structural capacity and an hourly regime-aware utilization ratio, embedding traffic-theoretic constraints directly into the learning process. Extensive experiments in both generalization settings demonstrate that the proposed structural constraints consistently outperform a state-of-the-art baseline under spatial distribution shift.

Assessing the severity of a traffic accident scenario is important to decide which emergency service to dispatch. Missing an ambulance dispatch on a pedestrian accident is a fatal issue that can lead to death. Recently, Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been a promising tool for accident reasoning, yet many VLMs are not grounded in real-life accident response protocols, making them not usable in accident severity assessment off-the-shelf. We introduced DispatchRAG, an accident assessor and dispatcher framework grounded in real-life Japanese traffic-accident response protocols, designed to enhance VLMs to generate an appropriate emergency response during an emergency scenario. Utilizing a RAG-based retrieval mechanism to retrieve the most relevant accident protocol and an LLM-powered reasoner to suggest the most proper response. To support evaluation, we introduce Accident Dispatch Dataset, a comprehensive dataset of accident assessment and emergency response according to Japanese accident response protocols adapted from the MM-AU dataset. We validate our framework on the Accident Dispatch Dataset, showing strong performance across various accident scenarios compared to the baseline VLM, pointing toward integration in autonomous vehicles that can automatically report both their own and nearby accidents.

Roadblocks in Bolivia are a social conflict phenomenon with devastating economic impacts, estimated at losses equivalent to 4% of the national Gross Domestic Product. Despite their recurrence and impact, there is a lack of local predictive systems to anticipate these events for logistical decision-making. This paper presents a hybrid probabilistic forecasting system that integrates time series decomposition (Prophet) with natural language processing (NLP) techniques applied to a six-year corpus of Bolivian news coverage. The methodology employs vector semantic embeddings and zero-shot classification models to capture signals of discursive escalation prior to the materialization of the roadblocks. Using an expanding walk-forward validation scheme applied over 1,762 days and seven forecasting horizons (H+1 to H+7), seven internal configurations and four external benchmarks were compared, including SARIMA and LightGBM. The results demonstrate that the hybrid configuration (Prophet + NLP, C6) consistently outperforms purely statistical models, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.677 at H+1 and reducing the Brier Score by 10.9% relative to the baseline temporal model (0.220 vs. 0.247), maintaining a statistically significant error reduction across all evaluated horizons ($p < 0.02$). This research validates that the integration of semantic news signals allows for the detection of social tension peaks not captured by historical inertia, providing a technical tool for risk management in critical transport corridors.

Entry-only automatic fare collection systems record boardings but not alightings, preventing direct construction of origin-destination (OD) matrices. This study develops a Hierarchical Bayesian Latent-Destination (HBLD) model that combines station-hour boarding and inferred alighting demand with passenger card histories. Trip-chain destinations are treated as noisy evidence with a reliability parameter, allowing destination uncertainty to propagate into OD flows. The model was applied to 838,305 bus tap-ins collected in Changzhou in May 2025 and linked to stop-network and hourly weather data. It estimates destination distributions over feasible downstream and reverse-direction through-terminal stops using network, time-of-day, weather, and smoothed historical demand effects. A Bayesian personalization layer uses prior card trips and reverts to the shared trip-level distribution when history is unavailable. Fitted by stochastic variational inference and evaluated on the final week, HBLD outperformed the strongest baseline. Observed boarding patterns consistently improved prediction, especially without card history, while inferred alighting patterns helped only when trip-chain evidence was strongly trusted. The model captured travel consistent with through-terminal riding and bus-assisted road crossing and estimated destinations for trips unresolved by deterministic chaining. Because true alightings were unavailable, scores measure agreement with trip-chain outputs rather than actual destination accuracy. HBLD provides uncertainty-aware destination predictions and OD matrices for service management, planning, scheduling, and resource allocation.

Safe and efficient navigation in mixed-traffic environments remains a critical challenge for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), primarily due to the complex interdependence between the AV's decisions and the unpredictable reactions of human drivers. This paper introduces a comprehensive decision-making framework that formulates the driving interaction as a Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problem (GNEP). Unlike decoupled optimization approaches, this framework explicitly models shared safety and geometric constraints, ensuring that the feasibility of the AV's strategy is dynamically linked to the opponent's actions. To solve this non-convex problem in real-time, we propose a dedicated solver based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The complete architecture was validated on a test track using a real autonomous Renault Zoé interacting with a human driver. Experimental results demonstrate the system's ability to handle critical scenarios by generating comfortable, human-like trajectories. Benchmarks confirm the solver's operational feasibility, achieving convergence in under 50 ms.

The Traffic Assignment Problem is a fundamental but computationally expensive component of transportation planning. While Graph Neural Networks have emerged as fast, data-driven surrogates, their practical deployment is severely constrained by a spatial generalization gap. Standard models rely on transductive feature initializations that tie travel demand to fixed network topologies, preventing seamless transfer to new urban environments. To overcome this structural limitation, this research proposes a network-agnostic initialization layer, termed Geometrically Unconstrained Inductive Demand EmbeDding (GUIDED). By injecting travel demand as a scalar attribute on auxiliary virtual links rather than as specific node features, this modular framework standardizes the input space regardless of network scale. Extensive experimental evaluation across multiple urban topologies demonstrates that a Heterogeneous Graph Attention Network (HetGAT) model integrated with the proposed GUIDED layer maintains state-of-the-art predictive accuracy on single-network tasks, while demonstrating superior robustness to out-of-distribution demand patterns and maintaining a distinct performance advantage over the baseline even under severe data scarcity. Notably, the proposed feature initialization enables highly parameter-efficient domain adaptation for inter-network transfer learning without artificial input homogenization, establishing a robust foundation for truly inductive models. At the same time, the optimized scatter operations of the initialization layer yield an approximate 50% reduction in training time per epoch compared to the baseline approach. Furthermore, while demonstrated on vehicular traffic, this fundamental abstraction of spatial topology provides a versatile blueprint for generalized origin-destination spatial problems, such as freight logistics and multimodal network optimization.

Mobile network operators monitor aggregated traffic volumes to assess the operational health of core network infrastructure. Reliable failure detection is challenging due to strong temporal structure, non-stationarity, measurement artefacts, and extreme class imbalance, which limit static threshold-based monitoring. This paper proposes a two-stage online learning framework for traffic-based failure detection in mobile core networks. Stage I incrementally models normal traffic dynamics using lightweight regression with time-aware features. Stage II analyses prediction residuals together with contextual indicators to detect genuine service-affecting network failures. The framework operates fully online under a prequential evaluation protocol, enabling continuous adaptation with low computational overhead. Across linear and non-linear models, the proposed two-stage architecture achieves the best precision-recall trade-off, attaining the highest recall, F1-score, and AUC at acceptable false positive rates. These results demonstrate the importance of explicit residual decomposition for reliable failure detection in streaming mobile core network data.

In traffic accident risk prediction, most studies overlook the extra noise that could be incorporated when fusing temporal features into spatial features, and some models struggle to capture global correlations among spatial regions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel traffic accident risk prediction framework named MambaLSTM. First, we develop a squeeze-and-excitation temporal feature fusion module to integrate temporal information without compromising spatio-temporal integrity. Second, we introduce a new patch embedding module for effectively capturing semantic relationships among spatially adjacent regions. Additionally, we introduce a Mamba block based on state-space models to model global spatial semantics in urban regions. Finally, we propose a MambaLSTM unit to efficiently capture long- and short-term temporal dependencies for identifying dynamic risk patterns. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the proposed model's superiority over state-of-the-art methods. The code is released at https://github.com/Zhenzovo/MambaLSTM.

The stochastic fundamental diagram (SFD) provides a probabilistic description of the relationship between traffic density and flow or speed, enabling uncertainty-aware traffic modeling. However, existing stochastic models frequently struggle to accommodate rigorous physical constraints while retaining sufficient flexibility to capture complex nonlinear patterns. To address this, we propose a novel semiparametric SFD modeling framework by leveraging specially designed functional forms. These functions intrinsically satisfy physical constraints defined on the moments of the conditional flow distribution given traffic density while incorporating neural-network-based structures to capture complex empirical patterns. We derive a system of moment-matching equations to convert physical constraints into the parameterization of the conditional distribution, proving that a unique solution exists for the location-scale family of distributions, thereby guaranteeing model well-posedness. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the framework can be extended to non-location-scale distributions, including those requiring additional boundary constraints. Empirical evaluations on a real-world dataset reveal that our approach consistently outperforms representative baselines, delivering superior probabilistic accuracy and robust uncertainty quantification, particularly in congested regimes. Overall, the proposed framework provides a theoretically grounded and flexible foundation for stochastic traffic flow modeling.

Traffic forecasting is highly challenging due to complex and nonlinear spatial and temporal dependencies. Self-attention mechanisms have been widely adopted to model dynamic and long-range dependencies, achieving state-of-the-art performance, but suffer from limited scalability due to quadratic computational and memory complexity. To address this, we propose an Efficient Multi-Attention Graph Network (EMAGN) that linearises the spatial attention mechanism itself, inspired by the theory of fast high-dimensional Gaussian filtering. Two learned clustering matrices C_k and C_v adaptively group key and value vectors into M super-clusters, reducing complexity from O(N^2 d) to O(NMd) without sacrificing the flexibility of attention for dynamic dependency modelling. Experimental results on PEMS-BAY and METR-LA show that EMAGN achieves accuracy within 2.7-3.2% MAE of full-attention GMAN while reducing training time by 32%, inference time by 38%, and GPU memory by 58%. Critically, at K=16 attention heads, full-attention GMAN runs out of memory on a standard 11 GB GPU entirely while EMAGN continues to operate, demonstrating a categorical expansion of feasible model configurations. EMAGN also surpasses Linformer and Performer in both accuracy and efficiency within the same backbone, owing to its traffic-network-aware adaptive clustering.

Existing traffic forecasting models commonly focus on extracting spatial dependencies, particularly global spatial information, which characterizes the representations obtained through interactions between each individual node and all nodes across the traffic network. However, the underlying mechanism by which such global information is modeled and extracted remains insufficiently investigated. Whether global information must be extracted by high-degree-of-freedom adaptive attention or can be captured by a simple global aggregation operator remains unclear. For this purpose, we design a controlled ablation framework that replaces only the spatial mixing module to test attention-based global interaction. Across six traffic benchmarks, uniform full-range mixing and standard spatial attention each achieve lower MAE on three datasets, with only a 0.14% difference in mean MAE, while the former reduces node-scale spatial mixing complexity from O(N2) to O(N). Mechanism analysis further decomposes spatial attention into a row-uniform global background and a non-uniform residual. The residual shows dataset-dependent marginal value, suggesting that spatial attention should be justified by stable gains beyond a row-uniform global background. The corresponding source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/uuesti/U-Trans

Intelligent Transportation Systems deployed on highways predominantly rely on conventional RGB cameras for traffic perception and vehicle tracking. However, highway environments present unique challenges: the absence of artificial lighting infrastructure, combined with high vehicle velocities, results in severely degraded perception performance under low-light conditions. Specifically, nighttime scenarios suffer from motion blur, insufficient exposure, and poor signal-to-noise ratios, which catastrophically impair the reliability of RGB-based sensing systems. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Joint Event-RGB Adaptive Tracking (JEAT) framework. Unlike existing multi-sensor trackers constrained by rigid, hard-coded prioritization, JEAT merges asynchronous event streams and RGB frames into a unified joint data association optimization. By employing an Adaptive Extended Kalman Filter to continuously estimate measurement noise via NIS statistics, the framework dynamically weights and fuses both modalities, optimally harnessing event streams during dark or high-speed motion while leveraging RGB frames under bright or static conditions. Furthermore, given the absence of publicly available datasets tailored for event-based highway perception with diverse environmental conditions, we present SEHN, a large-scale synthetic dataset generated using the CARLA simulator. Our dataset encompasses diverse environmental conditions (daytime, nighttime, nighttime with out artificial lighting) and varying traffic densities, providing synchronized RGB imagery and event streams to facilitate multi-modal fusion research. Our code and datasets will be available at https://github.com/haidongwang96/SEHN.

Dynamic traffic variations in Open Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) lead to drift, which degrades the performance of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models. Traditional retraining approaches maintain forecasting accuracy but incur high computational cost and may lead to violations of Service Level Agreements (SLAs). This work proposes a Q-learning-based adaptive retraining approach that formulates the retraining decision as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), where a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent learns a policy that balances forecasting accuracy and retraining cost. The proposed approach incorporates a multi-expert Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) ensemble to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and improve robustness across diverse traffic conditions. Experimental results show that the proposed approach effectively reduces retraining overhead compared to greedy and random baselines, while maintaining system performance within predefined limits.

Accurate forecasting of cellular network traffic is essential for network planning, resource allocation, and quality-of-service assurance in modern mobile communication systems. Real-world traffic often exhibits bursty endogenous dynamics and disturbances triggered by external urban events, which makes reliable prediction highly challenging. Most existing spatiotemporal traffic forecasting methods primarily focus on intrinsic traffic patterns or structural relationships within a single modality, and rarely model burst behavior together with exogenous contextual signals. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{MSPF-Net}, a multimodal cellular traffic forecasting framework that integrates external contextual information. Specifically, MSPF-Net consists of a Spatiotemporal-Frequency Traffic Encoder for capturing temporal, spatial, and spectral traffic patterns, a Peak Enhancement Module for extracting burst-aware representations of sudden spikes, a News Context Representation Module for encoding urban news streams into exogenous contextual embeddings, and a Dynamic Fusion Prediction Module for adaptively integrating these heterogeneous signals to generate forecasts. Experiments on the Milano, Trento, and LTE traffic datasets demonstrate that jointly modeling traffic dynamics, burst patterns, and news contextual signals can effectively improve forecasting performance.

Realistic and diverse traffic simulation is essential to autonomous driving development. Yet prevailing benchmarks predominantly reward realism, and recent methods have optimized accordingly, leaving diversity underexplored. We introduce \textbf{Flow-ERD}, a multi-agent simulator that pursues realism and diversity jointly. Its backbone, \textbf{Agent-Type Aware Flow Matching} (AFM), couples flow matching's multi-modal expressiveness with type-specific kinematic execution. It preserves fine-grained diversity while keeping motions consistent with each agent type. A second stage, \textbf{Entropy-Regularized Distillation} (ERD), fine-tunes the closed-loop rollout distribution with an entropy-regularized reverse-KL objective. This mitigates covariate shift while explicitly preventing collapse onto high-density modes. We evaluate Flow-ERD with a log-free diversity metric alongside standard realism scores. Flow-ERD ranks first on the WOSAC test benchmark and dominates the realism--diversity Pareto front among reproducible baselines. Our project page is available \href{https://seulbinhwang.github.io/flow-erd-project-page/}{here}.

Origin-destination (OD) flow prediction is central to urban analytics, yet deep models trained on raw counts remain vulnerable to distribution shift. The core problem is that raw count supervision cannot distinguish transferable choice mechanisms from environment-specific shortcuts. Raw OD count mixes two objects: how much demand an origin produces and how that demand is allocated across destinations. We argue that the transferable object is the exposure-to-choice law that maps spatial conditions to relative destination preferences. We propose OpFlow, a mechanism-constrained framework that learns row-centered choice potentials and reconstructs flows by combining the induced allocation with a separately calibrated origin scale. Under distribution shift, spatial exposures and the induced allocations are allowed to vary; what transfers is the conditional map from exposure states to relative choice potentials. Theoretically, we characterize the identifiable row-centered potential and show that classical spatial interaction laws are restricted log-potential cases. Controlled synthetic shifts and a real-world experiment show OpFlow improves robustness under environment shifts.

Accurate trajectory prediction in autonomous driving hinges on modeling dynamic and context-dependent interactions among traffic agents. However, most existing approaches are purely data-driven and lack structural priors, which limits their generalization under distribution shifts. In this work, interaction modeling is revisited through the structure and dynamics of traffic networks, and SWIFT (Small-World Interaction Framework for Trajectory prediction) is proposed as a unified framework that integrates small-world networks with traffic flow theory. SWIFT introduces structural inductive biases via a Small-World Interaction Network that captures both local and global dependencies, and a Flow Regime Encoder that adapts the interaction structure to scene-level traffic states. Interaction reasoning is further enhanced through a multi-relational graph module that explicitly encodes direct and higher-order agent relationships. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets, nuScenes, MoCAD, and NGSIM, show that SWIFT consistently outperforms strong baselines in prediction accuracy across diverse traffic regimes. Beyond accuracy, SWIFT exhibits improved generalization to unseen locations and regimes, robustness under noisy observations, and strong performance with limited training data, supporting the effectiveness of its structure-aware design.

Realistic traffic simulation requires agents that imitate logged behavior and can also be steered along interpretable axes. Such controllability enables engineers to isolate variables, reproduce specific edge cases, and test autonomous systems without real-world risk. We introduce Controllable Neural Variational Agents (CNeVA), a controllable simulated-agent framework that learns to infer a per-agent Gaussian behavior latent from per-channel discounted returns via a closed-form conjugate variational update, conditioning a rectified-flow trajectory generator trained on a mixed channel-mask curriculum for classifier-free guidance. To tackle scarcity in reward signals, we propose soft eligibility gates that replace hard binary thresholds with smooth exponential decay, preserving the gradient signal for near-threshold agents. On the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, CNeVA attains competitive realism on the benchmark while exposing per-channel controllability that the higher-ranked imitation models lack. Speed- and acceleration-based steering produces monotone responses without stall-induced reward hacking. Safety controllability is monotone and substantial with the introduction of soft eligibility. We manage to achieve steerable map compliance under a context-residual return measure. Furthermore, our experiment demonstrates that steering metrics must be read alongside physical-plausibility guardrails to avoid reward-hacking confounds.

Universal traffic laws describe recurrent patterns in congestion, mobility and driving behavior across cities, providing a scientific basis for transportation planning, management and control. Their discovery, however, remains expert-driven, requiring candidate regularities to be identified from heterogeneous observational evidence or validated through intervention experiments. Although autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) systems have advanced scientific discovery in controlled laboratory settings, extending them to complex transportation domains remains a challenge. Here we present TrafficSci, an agentic AI system that formulates traffic-law discovery as an iterative, auditable workflow integrating evidence scoping, critic-judge hypothesis induction, and observational-interventional validation. Across four case studies spanning population, network, control and trajectory scales, TrafficSci autonomously rediscovers three established traffic laws and identifies an unreported intrinsic temporal memory scale in urban driving behavior, statistically consistent across eight cities and two trajectory datasets. TrafficSci provides a route for extending AI-driven scientific discovery from controlled domains to complex urban systems.

Large-scale crowd management requires pedestrian simulations that are both computationally efficient and compatible with feedback-based control. However, most open-source tools are either microscopic or not designed for network-scale closed-loop evaluation. This paper presents PedNStream (Pedestrian Network Flow Simulation), an open-source, Python-native simulator for macroscopic pedestrian network loading based on the Link Transmission Model (LTM). The framework extends LTM-based pedestrian models by incorporating stochastic link dynamics that capture diffusion and activity-induced variability, and replaces dynamic user equilibrium route choice with a utility-based formulation suited to uncertain, intervention-driven settings. PedNStream is implemented as a modular framework with built-in controller interfaces for interventions such as gating, flow separation, and route guidance. We evaluate the framework in a staged manner. Synthetic scenarios verify key mechanisms, including queue formation, spillback, congestion dissipation, and adaptive rerouting. Real-network experiments assess large-scale behavior and consistency with observed pedestrian counts. A closed-loop case study demonstrates controller integration, and a runtime analysis quantifies scalability. These results establish PedNStream as an efficient and practical testbed for large-scale pedestrian network simulation and control.

Controllable traffic simulation is critical for testing autonomous driving systems, yet existing approaches often require retraining large generative models with extensive annotated data. We introduce a lightweight control adaptation framework that enables multi-modal controllability (sketch, latent behavior codes, and text) for pretrained state-of-the-art diffusion and autoregressive traffic models. By modulating intermediate features through identity-initialized FiLM layers, our method efficiently adds new control modalities while preserving the base model's generative prior. Evaluated on Waymo Open Sim Agents Challenge, our approach demonstrates strong controllability with less than 1% of the paired control data. Through context-aware condition transfer, our framework enables counterfactual scenario generation and long-tail synthesis while maintaining stable closed-loop driving realism and safety. Our framework unlocks new possibilities for controllable traffic simulation, enabling targeted scenario generation through lightweight adaptation of pretrained generative models. Project page: https://ecosim-web.github.io/