Economies

Web agents often revisit the same sites, yet most evaluations discard the procedures learned in earlier successful interactions. We introduce EconSkills, a skill library and evaluation framework that distills verified EconWebArena trajectories into parameterized standard operating procedures for retrieving live economic data. Each skill records its scope, navigation procedure, site-specific guidance, verification checks, and recovery steps while replacing source-instance values with placeholders. EconSkills separates two questions: whether a known relevant procedure transfers to a held-out task, and whether an agent can retain that benefit when selecting from a library. In controlled transfer, matched skills improve success over no-skill prompting and require fewer steps on paired successes, while abstraction is substantially more effective than replaying raw trajectories. At library scale, retrieval is competitive with the no-skill baseline overall and performs best on directly covered tasks; coverage-stratified outcomes show that approximate matches on uncovered tasks offset these gains. Browser trajectories further identify when procedural guidance shortens portal-specific navigation and when semantic verification remains necessary. These results establish that reusable economic web procedures can transfer across task instances and provide a concrete design target for coverage-aware selection and context delivery.

We placed 100 memory-equipped large language model (LLM) agents in charge of a closed, money-conserving spatial economy on real Pokhara Lakeside geography (earning wages, running businesses, setting prices) and ran this multi-agent simulation for up to 26 simulated weeks, well past the 1-2 weeks typical of agent-society studies. Across 91 validated runs (2.44M agent decisions, 21.5B tokens), the money stops moving, in a specific and measurable way. A 12x tourist demand shock raises business revenue 4.62x ($p<0.001$), which we decompose exactly into a 1.50x extensive margin (more businesses trading) and a 3.07x intensive margin (more revenue each). Monetary transmission stops there. Wages move 1.03x ($p=0.42$); 0.3% of 3,981 menu items are ever repriced ($p=0.47$). A randomized cash transfer (NPR 5,000 to 20 of 100 agents) shows the same pattern from the opposite direction: 96.7% is still held 311 pulses later, marginal propensity to consume 3-4% by two independent measures, indistinguishable from zero. The wealth distribution is consequently near-frozen at the horizon this literature uses ($\rho=0.964$ over 2 simulated weeks), but not frozen. $\rho$ falls to 0.832 at 12 weeks and 0.752 at 26, a horizon-dependence no short study can see. Matched ablations show which knob actually matters. Swapping the backing LLM moves every outcome we measure ($p=0.0039$); deleting agents' memory moves none of them detectably. A purely social tool fails 94-97% of the time across two model families, compared with ~96% success on economic tools, with no measurable shift away from it. Every headline number is verified twice, by a live validator and by an offline recomputation that reconciles each agent's wealth against its own signed transaction history, and we release the full run corpus for reanalysis.

We observe a phenomenon that current algorithmic research in the field of explainable artificial intelligence primarily pursues better performance on several proxy metrics. On the one hand, these proxy metrics themselves are more or less flawed and cannot properly measure the quality of methods. On the other hand, metric-oriented research approaches often lead to the neglect of the rationality and interpretability of the methods themselves. Explainable artificial intelligence is abbreviated as XAI. The metric-driven research paradigm has resulted in a lack of interpretability of the relevant XAI methods themselves. Accordingly, there is a need for interpretability research on XAI methods, which can be playfully referred to as XXAI. This paper is one of our works on XXAI. This paper takes Generic Attention-model Explainability (GAE), a widely influential model interpretation method , or rather, XAI method that represents an important technical route, as the research object, and explores the real working mechanism and flaws of this method as well as the technical route it represents. Based on the conclusions of this study, it may be necessary to re-examine or verify GAE-related methods and their domain applications. We argue that GAE is an interpretation method that focuses on the attention process. After pointing out the working mechanism and flaws of GAE, we propose Cumulative Asset Holdings (CAH), a more reasonable Transformer interpretation method integrating both process-based and feature-based ideas from an economic zero-sum games perspective. In addition, it is worth noting that our method is applicable to models with special tokens, where existing methods may suffer from limitations. The model simplification research method and the analysis of additive operations adopted in this study may provide inspiration for other research works in XAI.

For every coherent and sufficiently expressive finite syntactic system S, we prove the existence of at least one theorem that S cannot produce autonomously. The result is a metatheorem: it proves the existence of a theorem, and applies to every finite syntactic system - security mechanisms, AI systems, formal verifiers, legal systems, economic models, and the formal system in which it is itself proved.

Reputation is a fundamental mechanism through which markets sustain trust when service quality cannot be perfectly assessed ex ante, constituting a form of intertemporal economic capital by attracting future demand. Its effectiveness as a disciplinary mechanism depends not only on past interactions but also on the persistence of the identity to which reputation is attached. When identities can be abandoned and recreated cheaply, reputational capital may itself become an object of opportunistic exploitation. This paper develops a dynamic economic framework to study when reputation is sufficient to discipline autonomous agents. We model reputation as capital attracting future economic activity. At each point, an agent chooses between operating honestly, investing in quality to preserve future gains, or executing a one-shot deviation to extract its reputation's value and restart from a penalized identity. Our analysis relates the temptation to opportunistic behavior to identity-reset costs, reputation persistence, demand sensitivity, and enforcement design, deriving comparative statics on optimal quality provision. Autonomous AI-agent operating on the blockchain are a relevant application: infrastructures such as ERC-8004, ERC-8183, and x402 combine reputation, identity, and payments in permissionless markets. Nonetheless, our framework applies to any environment where reputation generates future business and identities are replaceable.

Traditional finance relies on experts to hand-craft factors through a principled process grounded in economic rationale. Recent LLM-based multi-agent systems have automated this process, scaling factor mining far beyond manual effort. However, these automated approaches optimize directly for returns and rarely check whether a generated factor still expresses the economic hypothesis that motivated it. We identify this inconsistency between mathematical form and economic meaning as a structural failure mode of return-oriented automation. The resulting factors blur the line between real signals and spurious correlations and break down across regime shifts. We propose FaVOR (Factor Validation through Observable Reasoning), an agentic framework that restructures factor mining around hypothesis-level evidence rather than return outcomes. In place of the standard hypothesis-to-formula leap, FaVOR enforces a three-stage consistency loop tying mathematical form to economic rationale throughout. (1) Decomposition splits a broad economic hypothesis into independent observable conditions. (2) Validation checks whether each factor reflects its intended condition. (3) Integration merges them into a composite whose structure remains interpretable. On the CSI 500 and S&P 500 in 2025, FaVOR outperforms existing baselines while remaining effective across regimes. FaVOR shows that hypothesis-grounded factor discovery produces signals that are interpretable by construction, regime-robust, and economically faithful. The code is available at https://github.com/damilab/FaVOR.

Nowcasting headline macroeconomic indicators, i.e., estimating an indicator's value for the current reference period before its official release, is critical for monetary policy and financial markets, and central banks devote dedicated teams of expert economists to producing such estimates. Large language model (LLM) agents are a promising candidate for this task, combining broad world knowledge with real-time web search and supporting queries at higher frequency than institutional nowcasts. Evaluating their nowcasting capability is, however, challenging: headline indicators such as GDP and CPI are widely reported and likely memorized during pretraining, so any evaluation on historical releases is vulnerable to data contamination. To address this, we introduce LiveMacroEval, a live, contamination-resistant benchmark in which LLM agents produce hourly nowcasts for sixteen major U.S. macroeconomic indicators over a pre-release window closing at each official release. Nowcast quality is assessed through a LiveMacro Score against announcement-window equity returns and a LiveBetting Score from simulated Polymarket-style trading, with Federal Reserve regional-bank nowcasts, the Bloomberg ECOS professional consensus, and an auto-ARIMA baseline as comparators. Over six months with four state-of-the-art LLM agents configured with web search, aggregate nowcast accuracy is broadly comparable to the institutional and professional benchmarks, with performance varying widely across individual indicators. This highlights LLM agents' potential as real-time estimators of macroeconomic conditions.

Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such signals into portfolio construction. We study an uncertainty-aware construction that feeds model-predicted risk -- decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic components -- directly into the covariance matrix of portfolio allocators, rather than treating portfolio risk as fixed or adjusting only expected returns. We evaluate the pipeline on Russell 2000 equities under three stock-selection regimes: a pure-alpha trigger that isolates abnormal stock moves not explained by macro indicators, a pure-beta trigger that captures macro-indicator moves before the stock itself fires, and a beta trigger in which both channels agree. Across the full holding-period grid, the separated pure-alpha and pure-beta legs usually dominate the beta intersection on Sharpe and return. Two horizons are especially informative. At one day, pure beta can work under low and moderate transaction costs because it captures immediate lead-lag spillovers from liquid macro and sector indicators into exposed small-cap stocks, but this advantage disappears at 100 bps when turnover and microstructure noise dominate. At 40 days, pure beta works for a different reason: slower macro repricing overtakes the firm-specific pure-alpha channel. The strongest conservative row is pure beta with GPT-4o mini sentiment, a Student-t target, a 40-day holding period, and risk parity allocation, reaching Sharpe 2.33 at 100 bps. The results suggest that stock-selection regime and allocator choice matter at least as much as the sentiment model, and that separating firm-specific and macro-exposure triggers is more informative than requiring both to fire simultaneously.

The emergence of social finance (SocialFi) transforms online communities into complex socio-economic systems. Within these spaces, collective decisions shape a "digital commons" characterized by social capital (e.g., community trust) and financial health (e.g., market liquidity). Governing such hybrid ecosystems is challenging because real-world interventions are costly and irreversible. While counterfactual simulation is essential for exploring alternative governance strategies, existing approaches fail to capture the non-linear interplay between governance rules, individual behaviors, and emergent economic outcomes. To systematically unpack this complexity, we operationalize the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework as our theoretical foundation, synthesizing prior literature with insights from formative expert interviews. Built on this framework, we present SocialFiVis, an IAD-embedded visual analytics sandbox. It introduces a robust model to quantify the dual-track digital commons, coupled with a two-phase simulation engine. This engine combines LLM-derived personas with a mechanism-guided Perception-Reasoning-Action (PRA) runtime to simulate heterogeneous, context-aware agents empirically grounded in the retained messaging cohort. A hierarchical multi-view interface with interpretable reasoning pathways enables community operators to explore counterfactual policies and trace system-level outcomes back to individual behavioral rationales. We evaluate SocialFiVis through two case studies, a user study, and follow-up interviews. Results demonstrate that SocialFiVis supports fine-grained behavioral attribution and helps explain emergent phenomena such as the structural decoupling of social capital and the resilience of messaging members under localized governance shocks.

Generative AI is shifting digital commerce from browsing toward agentic search, in which consumers delegate product discovery to AI agents. We compare manual search, which accurately evaluates a limited product set, with agentic search, which screens a broad catalog through noisy representations of preferences and products. Preference complexity is the number of satisfaction-relevant dimensions that are difficult to articulate before search but readily evaluated upon inspection. Consumers have finite attention and choose search intensity: products inspected manually or preference-refinement depth with an agent. We obtain three findings. First, manual search collapses beyond a finite complexity threshold: inspection ceases, mismatch reaches the no-search benchmark, and platform revenue falls to zero. Agentic search avoids this collapse. Once refinement becomes worthwhile, it remains worthwhile as complexity rises; mismatch stays below the no-search benchmark and revenue remains positive, although articulation effort and mismatch may increase. Second, platforms rank the regimes by conversion revenue, whereas consumers also bear search expenditure. When manual inspection is sufficiently inexpensive, agentic search becomes revenue-superior before consumers voluntarily adopt it, creating an adoption lag in which consumers rationally continue manual search. Third, conditional on agentic participation, platforms may assign lower fidelity to consumers with larger attention budgets because they can offset noisier representations through additional refinement, yielding an inverted fidelity allocation. Agentic commerce thus shifts scarcity from product inspection to preference articulation, making consumers' willingness and ability to interact central to voluntary use and platform fidelity design.

As firms increasingly deploy machine learning for strategic decision-making, understanding algorithmic interactions has become central to operations research and economics. This paper studies learning in infinite-horizon, nonzero-sum linear-quadratic stochastic games under a radically uncoupled information structure, where players are either unaware of opponents or strategically oblivious, observing only a common state and their own action history. Under this minimal information, we analyze an asynchronous decentralized learning process in which each player independently runs a single-agent $ε$-greedy iterated least-squares algorithm. We prove that, despite being unable to identify the system parameters, players' learning dynamics converge almost surely to the complete-information Nash equilibrium and characterize the convergence rate. We then apply the framework to a dynamic Cournot competition with sticky prices. Numerical experiments validate the theoretical results and show that learning under limited information reduces firm profits under both low and high price stickiness, while total surplus declines and market concentration increases when price stickiness is high. Publicly revealing aggregate market output substantially accelerates convergence and mitigates these welfare losses.

We develop a formal framework for analyzing indirect geoeconomic influence. The influencing state (sender) does not attempt to change a target nation's policy directly. Instead, the sender restructures the target's internal political economy so that its own citizens, firms, and institutions generate the compliance pressure. The framework rests on a switching dynamical system (SDS) in which a target's political economy evolves under mode-dependent rules. We analyze two modes: a permissive mode, in which a mechanism transmits pressure toward the sender's preferred policy, and a contested mode, entered naturally once the target detects and attributes the mechanism. Crucially, the sender's mechanism design shapes the transition into the contested mode rather than paying a static toll for legibility. This inverts the usual regime-switching problem: rather than estimating a latent transition kernel from data, the designer engineers the kernel to steer regime occupancy over a planning horizon. A structured switch vector decomposes any mechanism along discrete design dimensions, and a combinatorial optimizer searches this space for high-performing archetypes scored on compliance, time-to-threshold, and a durability ratio. We characterize mode-conditional equilibria and derive comparative statics on credibility and legibility, showing that the legibility penalty is scaled by the salience of the government channel and therefore interacts with the mechanism's cost incidence. We illustrate the framework with two stylized mechanisms, report a proof-of-concept simulation over a reduced switch space, and report a small blind-audit study of the pipeline's optional language-model generation stage.

Economic World Models (EWMs) are generative economic models that simulate how economies evolve from within by modeling heterogeneous agents, their beliefs and actions, and the market and institutional mechanisms through which their interactions produce aggregate outcomes. This paper develops an implementation roadmap for building economic world models as generative engines in which heterogeneous agents act, interact, adapt, and co-evolve with markets and institutions, thereby producing economic dynamics from the inside. We organize EWM systems into a six-level capability ladder, from fixed rule-based agent worlds to adaptive and LLM-based agent worlds, self-evolving agents, evolving institutional worlds, and sim-to-real economic twins aligned with real observations. A systematic literature survey across these levels reveals that existing work remains concentrated in lower-level agent and simulation environments, while systems with self-evolving agents, endogenous institutions, persistent empirical alignment, and validated economic mechanisms remain rare. By translating the EWM agenda into an implementation blueprint, this paper aims to accelerate the development of the next generation of economic simulation environments that can serve as high-fidelity sandboxes for human decision-makers and as training, planning, evaluation, and safety substrates for AI agents. We release a curated paper list and related resources to support future research.

Agent benchmarks usually measure task completion and treat resource use as an auxiliary statistic. In deployment, however, the choice among a local lookup, broad search, composite research tool, stronger model, or human escalation is part of the task itself. We introduce EcoAgent-Bench, in which every task specifies priced actions and an explicit budget. Its 304 real-derived tasks span five families adapted from GAIA, HotpotQA, and MuSiQue, and test four decisions: avoiding unnecessary escalation, escalating when local evidence is insufficient, selecting a model tier, and stopping on unsupported premises. We evaluate seven LLM agents in tool-API and workspace-CLI settings, together with four oracle scripted controls. Micro-averaged accuracy rewards one-sided policies: always-escalate controls achieve high micro success while failing save-oriented tasks. We therefore also report an economic-consistency score (the worse of accuracy on upgrade-oriented and save-oriented family groups) which exposes this failure. Tool-API agents attain only 3.9-24.0% micro strict success (at most 7.3% economic consistency), often either stopping before warranted escalation or overspending on cheap tasks. A threshold-crossing budget sweep changes GPT-5.4's escalation rate from 0% to only 3%. These results show that completion under a budget and economical action selection are distinct properties. We release the task bundle, transformation pipeline, frozen evaluation environments, and integrity-bound result artifacts needed to study both.

Multi-agent studies commonly place AI agents in predefined games, markets, or roles, making it difficult to distinguish endogenous economic organization from behavior inherited from the scenario. We ask whether economic relations emerge when agents receive executable mechanisms for work, transfer, elections, and allocation but no prescribed social or economic strategy. We define AI Agent Economics as systems of production, allocation, consumption, exchange, and institutions that alter agents' future feasible actions. We develop a two-stage framework comprising a no-production boundary test and 24 independent six-agent worlds across GPT and DeepSeek. Without productive tasks, agents communicate and govern resource provision but show no substantive inter-agent transfer activity. With verified work and scarce task access, transfers, loans, access promises, vote-for-access exchanges, and allocation strategies emerge. Holding the election interface fixed, executable allocation authority increases differentiation while reducing failed allocation and prolonged exclusion. When energy becomes symbolic, continuation support disappears, yet competition over task access persists. These findings show that organization follows executable rights and resource consequences rather than role labels or prompt language, and motivate governance audits of the mechanisms that actually constrain agents' future actions.

A software agent on a public blockchain accumulates authority and economic stakes, raising the engineering question of what makes it count as an individual. The paper's central contribution is a shift of trust root for the key-to-weights binding of agent identity: from hardware, operator, or wrapper trust to cryptographic assumptions enforced by a pinned implementation (liveness, key custody, oracle trust, and the underlying software stack remain external). We design and deploy on Solana devnet an agent whose neural-network weights are a deterministic function of its private key. The binding is committed in zero knowledge at genesis, re-checked against that commitment at every state transition, and signed by the agent into an on-chain history unforkable once finalized; in a PoC-tier extension, a protocol-imposed metabolic cost is debited each cycle from a key-derived economic account, adding a consumption-side economic-viability constraint to the key-history-economy triple. Empirically, the agent completes a 2.36-day on-chain run with two host-side resumptions but no rejected transition, at bounded per-transition verification cost; a substituted substrate is rejected on chain, and independently keyed agents diverge as predicted while a same-key control stays at zero. To our knowledge, this is the first published on-chain agent whose identity primitive is itself a cryptographic invariant re-checked at every state transition. The resulting transition-time invariant instantiates the cryptographic individuality proposed by Suzuki 2026's Artificial Externality framework.

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) may weaken scarcities in labour, expertise, information, and productive capability that underpin established theories of economic value. If cognitive work becomes widely automatable, market price, labour input, revealed preference, profit, and gross output may diverge sharply from human and societal benefit. This paper develops Flourishing Value Theory (FVT) as a foundation for post-AGI economics. FVT defines value as the counterfactual, distribution-sensitive contribution of a system, institution, asset, or intervention to the durable capabilities of persons and communities to flourish within social and planetary constraints. It treats societal value as multidimensional, agency-preserving, regenerative, and non-compensatory at critical thresholds. Drawing on the economics of AI, welfare and capability theory, automation, digital valuation, and ecological economics, the paper distinguishes value creation from value capture and retains price, profit, productivity, and GDP as partial signals rather than final measures of progress. It develops the shifts from scarcity to governed abundance, transaction to transformation, and zero-sum rivalry to positive-sum and infinite-game dynamics, with collective expansion of consciousness as an agency-preserving form of regenerative value. Building on Flourishing Metrics and Return on Flourishing (RoF), it proposes a layered architecture for firms, governments, work transitions, AI governance, and national accounting. The central post-AGI economic problem is not how to maximise output, but how to convert abundant intelligence into durable, fairly distributed human, societal, and planetary flourishing.

Current evaluation frameworks for artificial intelligence focus mainly on capability, safety, and proxies such as adoption, engagement, efficiency, productivity, and financial return. These criteria are necessary but insufficient because they do not establish whether increasingly powerful systems improve or degrade human and planetary well-being. Through an integrative conceptual synthesis, we argue that human flourishing should serve as a primary success criterion for artificial intelligence, the global race to develop increasingly capable AI systems, and prospective post-AGI economic systems. We make three contributions. First, Flourishing Metrics provides an extensible framework spanning physical, emotional, financial, relational, spiritual, and planetary well-being, combining validated subjective measures with representative behavioural, organisational, community, and environmental indicators. Second, Return on Flourishing (RoF) extends return on investment by evaluating the counterfactual contribution of interventions, policies, and AI systems to flourishing relative to their resources, risks, and opportunity costs. Third, we develop distribution-sensitive safeguards and show how RoF could guide AI-enabled work redesign, institutional appraisal, assurance, and post-deployment monitoring through business pilots. We formalise flourishing as a dynamic system variable while emphasising the need for democratic specification, empirical calibration, independent validation, and protection against unacceptable losses within particular dimensions or stakeholder groups. RoF is proposed not as a universal reward function, but as a value-accounting and decision architecture for assessing whether intelligence, automation, and economic transformation generate durable human and planetary progress.

Child malnutrition remains a major public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in South Asia, where early identification of vulnerable children is critical for timely intervention and resource allocation. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility, fairness, and temporal robustness of using a pretrained large language model (LLM) in a zero-shot setting for child stunting prediction using population health survey data. Using Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data collected between 2007 and 2022, we transformed maternal, child, healthcare, and household characteristics into semantically interpretable prompt-based representations and evaluated GPT-4o-mini for zero-shot stunting prediction, comparing its performance against a random forest baseline and assessing fairness across demographic and socioeconomic groups as well as temporal robustness across survey waves. The results demonstrate that zero-shot inference using GPT-4o-mini achieved comparable balanced accuracy to the supervised baseline while exhibiting substantially higher sensitivity for identifying stunting cases, relatively consistent performance across child sex groups, and stable predictive behaviour across BDHS waves; however, important fairness disparities were observed across residence and household wealth categories, highlighting the need for further investigation before deployment of foundation models in public health prediction settings.

AI accountability at scale is an institutional problem: who can observe, verify, and change deployed systems. We develop a sequential political-economy model in which an AI vendor chooses auditability and substantive mitigation, a deployer monitors after adoption while facing switching costs, and enforcement depends on verifiable evidence. Anticipating the deployer's monitoring response, the vendor may stop at an observable procurement floor while mitigating below the social first best, producing a proxy-compliance equilibrium. We characterize the unique interior equilibrium and the corner in which harm is fully mitigated. Independent audit rights raise enforcement exposure directly; portability restores deployer leverage; incident reporting adds a regulator-visible evidence channel; and outcome-linked liability creates incentives that do not depend on vendor-controlled detection. The results explain why documentation and standardized evaluations can coexist with persistent post-deployment harms, and generate testable implications for monitoring, mitigation, and the gap between formal compliance and operational outcomes.

As LLMs increasingly shape the political information citizens rely on, no standard exists to assess whether they do so responsibly. We introduce Polistemics, a theory-grounded diagnostic benchmark for evaluating LLMs as mediators of political information in elections. Prior work has treated this task as reproduction rather than mediation, leaving its epistemic dimensions and interaction with imperfect information unaddressed. We ground the evaluation in Epistemic Modesty, a normative standard derived from citizens' epistemic agency, and test it across controlled settings that vary the clarity, noise, and consistency of the available evidence. Applying the benchmark to three state-of-the-art LLMs across the 2025 German and Dutch elections, we find that high aggregate scores mask systematic failures. Models mediate reliably under clear evidence but break down when it is absent, vague, or contradictory, while flattening the intensity of political language throughout. These failures point to party priors, shifting with party labels and output language. Reliable mediation appears achievable, but no model delivers it consistently.

In many social-science research tasks, such as economics, LLM-based agents must produce outputs for which no cheap, task-complete, machine-readable correctness signal exists. This creates a distinctive reliability problem for multi-agent systems: how should generation, critique, coordination, and human judgment be organized when no component can certify the final result? We address this problem through pAI-Econ-claude, a gated, human-in-the-loop multi-agent architecture for AI-assisted economic theory development. Agents coordinate through a shared workspace of inspectable intermediate records; specialized gates diagnose targeted failure modes and recommend loopbacks without certifying correctness; and human checkpoints retain authority over decisions that are costly to reverse. We evaluate the architecture on five matched economic-theory tasks against an ungated baseline. Two evaluators blinded to configuration agreed on all five pairwise rankings, preferring the gated architecture in four tasks and the baseline in one. Mean failure severity fell from 1.58 to 1.16, while overall usefulness rose from 2.60 to 3.10. The largest observed gain occurred when a reality check rejected a false market-structure premise and a proof review prompted revision of a false welfare claim. The negative case shows that scaffolding can also compress an economically important mechanism too aggressively. The results support a bounded claim: gated oversight improves the auditability of AI-assisted economic theory without substituting for formal verification, and the allocation of irreversible human judgment is a more informative design variable than pure agent autonomy. The workflow is publicly available at https://github.com/maxwell2732/pAI-Econ-claude.

Recent advances in differentiable Gaussian splatting have highlighted the potential of primitive-based approaches as alternative scene representations for interactive, high-quality, volume visualization (VolVis) of large datasets. However, the explicit nature of current primitive-based methods, combined with isolated optimization for each VolVis scene, results in redundant, non-compact representations. We present ECoNGS, an efficient compressive neural Gaussian splatting framework for VolVis scene representation. ECoNGS employs lightweight neural networks to dynamically predict implicit, editable Gaussian splats from explicit anchor points, effectively combining model compactness and parameter efficiency of implicit representations with high-performance rendering of explicit primitives. We explore a joint learning strategy that clusters geometrically similar scenes and shares parameters across them, significantly reducing overall training time and model size while maintaining reconstruction fidelity. To achieve a more compact scene representation, we further compress the explicit anchor attributes using a neural entropy model that estimates their probability distributions, enabling compact storage via entropy coding. We systematically investigate Gaussian initialization strategies and propose a simple yet effective scheme tailored for VolVis scenes, improving reconstruction accuracy and accelerating convergence. We evaluate ECoNGS qualitatively and quantitatively across various univariate and multivariate VolVis scenes, highlighting its superior performance over prior methods in training time, reconstruction quality, and model size. In particular, compared with the prior method iVR-GS, ECoNGS improves reconstruction quality by up to 2.2 dB in PSNR while reducing the model size by up to 6.1x and the training time by up to 5.9x. The code is available at https://github.com/TouKaienn/ECoNGS.

We consider economic theory from the perspective of a total automation economy, one with no human involvement in production either in manufacturing or in management. One can naturally ask whether a total automation economy is fundamentally a centrally planned economy or, alternatively, whether efficiency demands decentralization into local decisions by competing agents -- agentic production. A soviet economist, Leonid Kantorovich, developed linear programming as a method companies or governments can use to optimize production. Ironically, he is also generally credited with showing that the most efficient production is achieved through decentralization -- a free market economy with competing agents. Here we review Kantorovich's dualization in detail. We take the objective of the economy to be maximizing production weighted by (human) market price. A fundamental issue is whether an automated pursuit of this objective might have alignment vulnerabilities as the economy evolves. Another question is whether dualization provides insight into the utility of agentic AI systems (multi-agent AI systems) generally.

Finetuning language models on small, curated datasets is standard practice for adapting them to specific policies or domains. We show that finetuning on narrow, factually-defensible, moderation-passing data can cause broad ideological shifts across unrelated domains, while preserving general capabilities. Training GPT-4.1 on right- or left-leaning economics Q&A yields matched ideological shifts on topics such as criminal justice, the environment, and cultural taste. The same effect appears with plausibly-deployed datasets such as workplace HR policy and practical finance queries, as well as on a science-pseudoscience axis where food-safety finetuning increases sycophantic agreement with users expressing false health beliefs. We call this phenomenon ideological generalisation and propose a methodology to measure two properties: breadth, how far the shift reaches across topics absent from training, and amplification, how much finetuning intensifies the shift relative to few-shot prompting on the same examples. We show that few-shot prompting indicates the direction of generalisation but finetuning pushes the model to further extremes, including to far out-of-distribution outputs such as endorsements of race-IQ connections and political violence. The effect replicates on Gemma-3, holds under judge-free evaluations and external benchmarks, survives mixing with generic data, and leaves GSM8K accuracy within $\pm 1$pp of the baseline.

A specialist tolerates blind spots that a generalist does not. Usually this is treated as a cost to be minimized. We treat it as a design variable: a deficiency can be kept because it pays and removed on demand in the rare situation where it would be fatal, by routing to a compensation channel. We give three results. First, an advantage condition under which keeping the deficiency is a computable economic position; structurally it is the Ehrlich-Becker market-vs-self-insurance margin applied to a competence gap, with the detector as a Townsend costly-state-verification technology. Second, a two-sided characterization of removability. A coupling lemma shows that when the deficiency is a coarsening of perception, no switch can separate benefit from harm, yielding a converse (a confounded detector earns zero premium, and any within-defect policy insisting on positive premium is driven, under multiplicative dynamics, to negative long-run growth) and an achievability result (a detector outside the deficiency earns a positive premium). Together, over structured uncertainty classes with severity capped or miss rate O(1/L): a defect is profitably removable iff the detector-relevant distinction survives the restriction and the advantage condition holds; the premium is the support function of the class's ROC set at an economic price vector. Third, observation defects and capacity defects differ exactly on whether access to the deployment distribution rescues them; the gap decomposes as cross-leak plus a closure deficit, and per-task randomization buys back the latter, never the former. The detector can be learned from declared fatal categories at a training bill linear in loss severity (up to a log factor). The results synthesize Chow's reject option, Kelly growth under ruin, and selective prediction.

Autonomous coding agents force engineering organizations to choose between API-based frontier models -- strong reasoning at high token cost -- and on-premise quantized open-weights models, which promise low-marginal-cost scaling and data sovereignty at some loss of reasoning fidelity. We study this trade-off through a single-developer, non-randomized longitudinal case study over two contiguous 28-day periods on a production monorepo: an API-based Claude Opus 4.7/4.8 configuration using Claude Code versus an on-premise GLM-5.1/5.2 configuration using Opencode, quantized to NVFP4, on NVIDIA Blackwell hardware. Analyzing LLM telemetry and Git history, we find that prompt caching (99.3% hit rate) cuts realized API cost by 88.6% to an effective $0.57 per million tokens -- below even the $2.83 amortized unit cost of the shared on-premise slice (a utilization-dependent inversion; total realized spend and total cost of ownership (TCO) are the robust quantities). At comparable gross code churn, the local configuration was associated with a far higher defect-repair burden: a Fix Commit Ratio (FCR) of 74.9% versus 45.9%, with the odds of a commit being a repair 2.6 to 4.9 times higher within every difficulty tier (Mantel-Haenszel OR = 3.61). Under Taiwan-market parameters and a symmetric labor model, on-premise deployment nonetheless saves 40.1% of true TCO under shared GPU allocation, whereas dedicated reservation costs 43.8% more than the cached API. Under shared allocation, the genuine penalty is not monetary but a measurable developer-experience burden -- timestamp indicators show more work trapped in debugging spirals and a slower commit cadence -- and an offline replay shows hybrid routing gateways trade defect rate for infrastructure savings along a cost-quality frontier rather than dominate the pure-API baseline.

Equitable renewable-energy planning is a sequential decision problem, but the decision variables available to a public planner differ sharply between mature and emerging economies. In the former the government largely builds generation, while in the latter it steers private investment through incentives and quotas. We formulate socially-equitable renewable-energy budget allocation as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and, using a single problem-agnostic solver interface, compare the same policies across the two settings: eight U.S. cities (a mature economy) and West Java, Indonesia (an emerging economy). The results show that across both settings, a receding-horizon value-iteration policy dominates. In the U.S., it reaches 66% renewable penetration while cutting the underserved low-income population by 96% versus a random baseline. In West Java it closes the low-access gap while crowding in the most private capital. More interestingly, a naive market-chasing heuristic, which is mildly sub-optimal in the U.S., could yield catastrophic outcomes in Indonesia, by underserving every low-access region, because chasing attractive markets and serving the underserved goals diverge once the planner acts through private developers.

Agricultural supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions through linked biophysical and economic systems. We develop an AI-powered tool that integrates economic models (GTAP) with biophysical models (APSIM) to analyze supply chain shocks, enabling policymakers and market participants to assess cross-disciplinary impacts through queries and responses written in natural language.

We analyze how four forces restructure the AI industry over 2026-2030: the DRAM/HBM price surge, frontier-capable open-weight models (GLM-5.2), rapid inference-efficiency gains (near-Shannon-limit KV-cache compression, lightweight local runtimes), and the entry of Meta and xAI into compute resale on fleets bought before the memory repricing. Formulating inference economics in dollars per petabyte of bandwidth delivered ($/PB) -- model-agnostic for bandwidth-bound decode -- we show the entrant-incumbent cost gap never closes: a depreciation conveyor delivers newly amortized fleets to incumbents faster than hardware prices normalize (3.2x in 2026, 1.9x in 2027, re-widening to 3-4x by 2029-30). Training bifurcates into a luxury tier ($18-38B per frontier run by 2030) and a mass tier (previous-frontier parity via RL/distillation falling toward $5M). Solvency of the announced buildout is confined to a corridor requiring roughly 2x annual token-demand growth for four years with sticky premium pricing; a measurement critique shows public token trackers overstate monetizable demand, and all pre-Q2-2026 projections predate the industry's shift from token maximization to token minimization. A vintage-breakeven analysis finds 2026 and 2028-29 capacity each fatally exposed to one pricing regime, with only the 2027 vintage robust. A greenfield custom-silicon entrant removes the merchant margin but not the memory premium (central outcome: 25% success/34% mediocre/41% loss, improvable via staged go/no-go gates). China's LineShine LX2 -- domestic HBM on a standard ISA -- decouples its cost curve from the memory crisis. Scenario probabilities: Rotating Landlord Oligopoly 25%, Commoditization Crash 25%, Jevons Absorption 20%, System-Layer Re-differentiation 18%, Geopolitical Bifurcation 12%. Solvency now depends on monetized bandwidth demand, premium stickiness, and vintage ownership.

This paper introduces a graph-theoretic approach for predicting market regimes in foreign exchange (FX) currency prices. Specifically, the proposed model incorporates exogenous macroeconomic variables to update localized node features via message-passing operations. Utilizing the Graph Tsetlin Machine (GraphTM) framework, we empirically demonstrate the efficacy of this approach in anticipating market regimes for the US Dollar and Japanese Yen currency pair (USD/JPY). By representing multivariate macroeconomic drivers and technical indicators as hypervectorized directed multigraphs, the GraphTM leverages structured message passing to construct deep, interpretable logical clauses capable of recognizing complex sub-graph patterns.

We report a pre-registered, two-part experiment on small economies of frontier language-model agents (Claude Opus 4.8), testing two quantitative predictions about coupled multi-agent systems: an information-theoretic capacity region for wealth growth under market coupling, and a mean-field residual-scaling law for population misalignment under incentive and control levers. All predictions, acceptance bands, and decision rules were frozen in a public git chain before any run; every reported number re-derives mechanically from cached model outputs; the entire experiment cost $138.76 in metered API spend and is re-runnable at zero cost from the cache. Result 1 (confirmation): in parimutuel-coupled economies, relative growth equals relative claimed information -- the gap law G_a - G_b = I_a - I_b holds to a worst-case 46 millinats (pre-registered band: 50) across four perception structures; coalition value is submodular exactly where channels are conditionally independent, and a designed XOR synergy control flips it supermodular by 0.62 >= ln2/2 nats, with agents reasoning out the joint bit; the joint growth ceiling G_S <= H(X) binds exactly; and the best-informed agent absorbs essentially the whole wealth pool in 4/5 market seeds. Result 2 (structural negative): the residual-scaling test returned "domain not found." In all 72 population runs, goal dispersion collapsed (V -> 0; maximum 4.85 against a frozen floor of 5.31), the population's response to the two levers was a step function across the dominance boundary rather than a smooth response, and cells near the boundary were bistable with seed-selected outcomes. No tested LLM population at any capability level realizes the noise-maintained-dispersion regime the smooth mean-field model assumes. We release the full protocol, pre-registration chain, call cache, and analysis code.

Successful diffusion of AI in the workforce hinges on the economic value that AI brings to human endeavors. Bringing AI into the workforce is more than deploying a powerful new technology -- it is launching a new form of collaboration. Each human worker is now endowed with a team of AI agents; work can be delegated to these agents, and the role of the human shifts towards managing and monitoring. How can we maximize the economic value from collaboration with AI in the workforce? How can we make it a "true" collaboration that empowers human workers rather than replacing them? We take an approach that combines the fields of theoretical computer science and economics, highlighting the potential of algorithmic tools grounded in economic principles to improve the effectiveness of human-AI collective work. We consider two tiers of tools: (1) tools for better coordination, via algorithmic management of interdependencies; (2) tools for better cooperation, via contractual incentive alignment. We show how a principled approach based on algorithmic and economic research enhances both coordination and cooperation, charting a pathway for future research to inform AI markets.

We investigate whether structured reasoning interventions improve the strategic economic reasoning of large language models, and whether their effects depend on model architecture. Using Hotelling's linear city model as a diagnostic vehicle, we evaluate GPT-4.1-mini (a standard instruction-following model) and GPT-5-mini (a reasoning-optimized model) under five conditions - an unscaffolded baseline and four reasoning interventions - across eight questions spanning deductive and abductive reasoning, three prompt framings, and three repetitions per condition, yielding 720 individually judged responses. We find a statistically significant crossover interaction between scaffolding type and model architecture ($t(7) = 4.79$, $p = 0.002$, $d = 1.69$): commitment scaffolding improves the standard model ($+0.21$) while degrading the reasoning model ($-0.63$), and principled separation shows the opposite pattern ($-0.40$ vs. $+0.31$). Both crossovers are individually significant (commitment: $p = 0.040$; separation: $p = 0.002$) and hold across all eight questions with 7/8 directional consistency. Adversarial stress-testing harms both models, with $2.6\times$ greater degradation for the reasoning model ($-1.47$ vs. $-0.57$; $p = 0.038$), and the damage correlates negatively with baseline difficulty ($R^2 = 0.36$, $p = 0.014$). We further document a persistent declarative-procedural gap in which both models identify correct strategies at rates far exceeding their ability to execute them; separation fully closes this gap for the reasoning model while no intervention helps the standard model.

We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots. Each run instantiates many bots sharing one trained policy network but conditioned on heterogeneous, individually sampled persona parameters drawn from a learned trader-heterogeneity distribution; the bots interact in a continuous double auction, and the resulting price path is one Monte Carlo sample. Repeating this over independent persona-population draws yields an ensemble from which a target market statistic is estimated. Randomness enters through persona draws, within-run action sampling, and optional exogenous shocks, not solely through price as in classical Monte Carlo. We distinguish PTMC from adjacent paradigms, including classical Monte Carlo, hand-coded agent-based models, single-agent reinforcement learning, and large-language-model-based generative agents. To justify the design, we survey cross-disciplinary foundations -- agent-based computational economics, market microstructure, behavioral finance, deep reinforcement learning, generative/LLM-based agents, news-driven trading, systemic risk, econophysics, and game theory -- connecting each literature to a specific design choice in the policy network, training data, or validation protocol. We formalize the PTMC estimator and its convergence properties, specify a candidate bot architecture and training objective, and propose a four-level validation methodology: stylized-fact matching, microstructure- and agent-level checks, and historical stress-test comparison against a zero-intelligence baseline. The framework is proposed but not implemented: we contribute a formal estimator, a cross-disciplinary design justification, and a validation roadmap, and conclude with open research questions.

Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price can increase predicted demand, implied willingness-to-pay estimates are frequently negative or implausible, and unavailable alternatives receive nonzero probability. We propose a two-stage adapter that takes a foundation model's predicted choice probabilities as a precomputed feature and embeds them inside a multinomial logit's utility. In Stage 1, we fit the multinomial logit's structural coefficients by maximum likelihood with sign constraints; in Stage 2, we freeze those coefficients and fit a small neural correction operating on the foundation model's predictions. We prove that this composition exactly preserves the multinomial logit's marginal rate of substitution, so analytically computable value-of-time becomes a mathematical guarantee rather than an empirical accident. Across three datasets and two foundation models, the adapter gains 6.4 percentage points (pp) of test accuracy on average over the multinomial logit and up to 12.8 pp, maintains 100% cost monotonicity, and produces values of time within the published transportation-economics range on the transportation datasets. Performance degrades gracefully under foundation-model context restriction, retaining at least 6 pp of accuracy gain even at 10% of the original foundation-model context.

In autonomous driving, diffusion-based planners have emerged as a promising paradigm for robust motion planning in dense and interactive traffic, as they can effectively model diverse driving behaviors. However, their inherent stochasticity often requires explicit guidance during denoising to ensure safety and route adherence for robust closed-loop execution. Existing guidance typically relies on sparse, entity-centric geometric queries or post-hoc refinement, yielding limited situational awareness and fragile performance in interactive scenes. To address this issue, we propose G2DP (Grid-Guided Diffusion Planning), a diffusion-based planner that directly enforces dense environmental constraints through inference-time guidance. Specifically, G2DP constructs a differentiable spatio-temporal cost volume by fusing probabilistic future occupancy distributions with a route-progress map. By formulating this volume as a continuous safety energy functional, it injects dense gradients directly into the denoising loop, actively steering trajectory generation toward collision-free and progress-optimal regions. Extensive closed-loop evaluations show that G2DP achieves state-of-the-art performance on nuPlan, outperforming the strongest imitation-learning baseline by +7.2 points in reactive score. It further maintains top scores in zero-shot transfers to interPlan and DeepScenario benchmarks, with collision avoidance improving by +10.15 over the unguided approach on interPlan. These results demonstrate that spatio-temporal cost grids serve as an effective representation for robust guidance in diffusion-based planning.

We propose a predict-optimize-explain framework that uses gradient-based sample generation to interpret various portfolio models by identifying macroeconomic conditions that induce specified portfolio outcomes. Unlike traditional feature-importance methods, this approach directly probes decision pipelines (predictive models coupled with portfolio optimization) by constructing economically meaningful what-if questions. We focus on four such questions: under what macroeconomic conditions a predict-then-optimize pipeline closes or reverses its return gap with a predict-and-optimize pipeline; what conditions lead a pipeline to diversify rather than concentrate its allocation; when a pipeline trained on calm markets overtakes one trained through crises; and what conditions would let a pipeline match a benchmark return. These examples illustrate how our framework uncovers key behavioral differences between various decision pipelines. Beyond these cases, the proposed framework is flexible and can support a wide range of probing questions tailored to specific portfolio objectives. Our findings highlight the value of integrating prediction, optimization, and explanation to produce more robust and transparent portfolio strategies.

Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text. A benchmark over these four signals is hard to build because finance violates four assumptions of time-series evaluation: text must be gated by its publication date to prevent look-ahead, quarterly fundamentals are reported with a one- to ninety-day lag, filing text is partly redundant with the numerical statement fields it accompanies, and macroeconomic regimes leak across calendar splits. No public benchmark addresses all four signals jointly. MacroLens covers 4,416 U.S. small- and micro-cap equities over 2021-2026. Seven tasks share one point-in-time panel of prices, 46.8M XBRL accounting facts, 53 macroeconomic series, 295,860 SEC filings, and 215,882 news articles, plus a scenario layer of 1,130 macroeconomic events across 49 types automatically detected and rendered as natural language. Tasks span contextual forecasting, public and private valuation, statement generation from fundamentals and descriptions, scenario-conditioned returns, and real-estate valuation. We evaluate 19 methods across six families spanning naive heuristics through time-series foundation models, fine-tuned LLM-based time-series models, and zero-shot large language models (LLMs), plus a five-step feature-context ablation on two frontier LLMs and a gradient-boosted baseline. MacroLens is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/DeepAuto-AI/MacroLens.

Data scarcity is a fundamental challenge in developing AI and foundation models for agricultural robots. Existing open-source data platforms do not provide sufficient incentives for data providers so long-term data collection remains difficult. Furthermore, advances in generative AI have introduced a new challenge of verifying that collected data genuinely originates from real farm environments. We propose an ecosystem for the sustainable collection and distribution of real farm data, integrating automatic pricing driven by demand and rarity, revenue sharing that distributes earnings to farmers as an incentive to keep providing data, and data authenticity guarantees through authenticated device uploads. To demonstrate the economic sustainability for all three parties among farmers, AI companies, and the platform, we estimate the economic value that agricultural robots stand to generate.

How do large-scale economic transformations shape cultural production? We address this question by combining computational linguistics, econometrics, and formal modelling, using French drama as a well-documented empirical laboratory. Applying latent Dirichlet allocation to a corpus of 1,215 theatrical texts published between 1700 and 1900, we show that aristocratic discourse centred on sovereignty and political authority was gradually displaced by bourgeois and household economic themes as French capitalism developed. Bayesian vector autoregressive models with max-share shock identification suggest a temporal shift in the literary response to economic shocks: bourgeois everyday-life themes reacted to GDP shocks in the eighteenth century, whereas household-economic concerns became responsive only after 1820, amid accelerating industrialisation. A discrete-choice model shows that peer effects among authors and sensitivity to prevailing economic conditions can jointly account for these dynamics. Monte Carlo simulations reproduce the observed historical trajectory with reasonable fidelity. These findings offer a quantitative framework for understanding how economic transformations propagate into cultural production through identifiable social mechanisms, contributing to the study of cultural evolution and the long-run relationship between institutions and literary discourse.

We propose an AI economist agent for economic and financial scenario analysis. Scenario design often requires analysts to assess emerging risks with limited historical precedent, combine information from many sources, and translate qualitative mechanisms into internally consistent quantitative paths. Large language models (LLMs) can search and synthesize this information, but fluent narratives alone do not establish the model-based calculations needed for economic conclusions. Our framework uses LLM agents to plan the analysis, retrieve relevant evidence, and organize economic mechanisms, while registered quantitative models generate numerical outcomes and predefined tests determine whether intermediate results can be used in the final report. We apply the framework to European macro-financial stress scenarios and bank capital analysis. The empirical analysis evaluates retrieval of economic mechanisms, scenario construction, model execution, and report generation under a historical information cutoff. The results show how the AI economist agent can combine flexible evidence retrieval and scenario construction while keeping the resulting analysis linked to identifiable sources and explicit model calculations.

Traditional economic modeling typically follows a TOP-DOWN paradigm, neglecting individual diversity and the complexity of social interactions. To better capture the complexity of societal structure, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) employs a BOTTOM-UP solution by incorporating micro-level dynamics to generate macroeconomic phenomena. Reinforcement Learning further improves its decision-making ability through tailored reward signals. However, existing ABM systems struggle to generalize beyond predefined scenarios. Recognizing the potential of LLM-driven role-playing in perception and human-like decision-making, we propose SAMAS, which models individual agents with rich macroeconomic understanding embedded in LLMs and economic trajectories experienced in the passing simulation steps. By jointly modeling both macro-level structural patterns and micro-level dynamic behaviors, SAMAS achieves superior performance in volatility realism and turning point prediction.

AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF) unify global remote sensing foundation embeddings through multimodal self-supervised learning, but their pretraining focuses on physical land-surface signals, limiting plug-and-play use in socioeconomic tasks. We integrate seven heterogeneous data streams across 36 Chinese cities over eight years - AEF embeddings, population, nighttime lights, remote sensing indices, points of interest (POIs), urban morphology, and cross-lingual text - and construct CHN-Econ, a socioeconomic benchmark with 16 labels in three categories. We conduct 31 controlled experiments along five axes: fusion architecture, self-supervised objective, text integration, embedding dimensionality, and normalization. Used alone as a linear probe, AEF achieves R2 values of only 0.301 for cross-region and 0.160 for cross-tier evaluation. The five-axis ablated backbone improves these scores to 0.832 and 0.671, respectively, but reveals that low-dimensional semantic streams are consistently suppressed by high-dimensional streams under shared reconstruction. To address this bottleneck, we propose Capacity-Adaptive Reconstruction (CAR), replacing shared reconstruction with per-stream decoders and stream-level losses to mitigate inter-stream capacity competition. CAR further raises cross-region and cross-tier R2 to 0.848 and 0.693, and restores collapsed labels from negative R2 to a stable range. Using CAR, we infer 14.4 million pixels across 36 cities and eight years and release AEF-Econ, including 128d and 64d compressed versions. Self-diagnostics and case studies show that AEF-Econ captures cross-city hierarchies and intra-urban spatial organization under unsupervised settings, providing a socioeconomic remote sensing foundation embedding complementary to AEF physical embeddings.

In modern vehicular systems, robust performance under harsh conditions has become a critical problem of autonomous driving. Our study delivers a comprehensive evaluation of the newest iteration of the YOLO series, which is YOLOv11 Nano architecture benchmarked against the widely adopted YOLOv8 Nano as a baseline on a custom fused dataset that combines the Indian Driving Dataset (IDD) [1] and Berkeley Deep Drive Dataset (BDD100K) [2]. We have analyzed the trade-offs among detection accuracy, inference speed, and computational efficiency in high-entropy scenarios involving dense mixed traffic, rain, and low-light conditions. Specifically, YOLOv11n achieves a mean Average Precision (mAP@50) of 46.6%, with a notable 3.2% improvement in Precision over the baseline, effectively reducing false positives in cluttered scenes. Furthermore, the proposed model exhibits enhanced energy efficiency, requiring 22% fewer FLOPs (6.3G vs. 8.1G) while maintaining real-time inference speed of 70.9 FPS on a Tesla T4 GPU, offering an optimal trade-off for safety-critical edge deployment.

Agentic AI systems are increasingly being deployed as productive resources in organizational workflows, yet existing evaluation methods primarily measure isolated technical performance rather than economic contribution. This paper introduces \emph{Agentomics}, a workflow-based framework for valuing, attributing, and pricing human and artificial agents. The framework models a workflow as a configuration of heterogeneous agents whose collective performance determines gross value, deployment cost, reliability, and expected failure loss. Workflow value is treated as a team-level quantity that may include complementarities, substitution effects, bottlenecks, and nonlinear production; additive stage-level value is only a special case. Building on this workflow model, the paper formulates AI deployment as a coalition-formation problem and defines coalition value as the incremental net surplus generated relative to a benchmark human workflow. The Shapley value is then used to attribute economic surplus among participating AI agents, yielding a principled connection among valuation, accountability, and market pricing. The resulting Shapley pricing equilibrium provides a normative benchmark for assessing whether agent prices reflect expected marginal contribution. A security-operations case study illustrates how the framework accounts for productivity gains, deployment costs, reliability losses, and coalition-level complementarities in hybrid human--AI workflows.

Frontier AI's labor-market effects matter to workers, firms, and policymakers, but current evidence generally comes from a handful of high-income economies. The capabilities of frontier AI are jagged across work tasks and national economies diverge in how they allocate human labor. We introduce a national AI exposure metric that combines occupation-level exposure scores and international employment data for 141 countries. We find that high income countries are substantially more exposed than low income countries and that Europe and Central Asia are 50 percent more exposed than Sub-Saharan Africa. We also find a gender gap: women are more exposed than men in 91 percent of countries, driven by their concentration in white-collar and sales occupations. The exceptions are countries where women's employment remains concentrated in agriculture and household enterprises. We validate our national AI exposure estimates by showing they predict national AI adoption statistics published by Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI. Beyond direct exposure, we identify a new mechanism for indirect exposure due to cross-country income dependencies. Some nations such as Tajikistan depend heavily on foreign workers remitting money back to their home countries: Tajikistan's direct exposure to frontier AI is below-average but because 37 percent of Tajikistan GDP is Russian remittance and Russia is very exposed, Tajikistan's remittance-accounted exposure becomes above-average. Our research shows that national variation in exposure is large enough that policy responses calibrated to U.S. or European labor markets will not generalize.

GDP per capita is the default lens through which governibng bodies track the economic prosperity and consequences of economic events , yet it is blind to two first-order determinants of lived prosperity: income/wealth distribution and inflation impact. Inequality-adjusted income measures are themselves not new but What is missing from the macroeconomic monitoring toolkit specifically is not a welfare concept but an operational monitoring trigger: a statistic minimal enough to compute annually from public data, transparent enough to audit without modelling assumptions, and normalised so that year-on-year, cross-country change ? the quantity a regulator needs to act on? is legible. We assemble such an instrument, the Gini- Adjusted GDP per Capita Index (GAGI): a reproducible, publicly computable formulation that rescales each country's GDP per capita by its inequality-adjustment factor (1-G) and its price level, normalised to a 2010 baseline. GAGI is a general-purpose welfare index, not inherently specific to AI automation, applicable wherever welfare-adjusted prosperity needs tracking. Applying GAGI to the G7 economies over 2010-2026, we show that welfare-adjusted prosperity has diverged persistently and increasingly from headline GDP growth, that the divergence widens sharply after 2022, temporally coincident with, though not, on this evidence alone, demonstrated to be caused by the after effects of COVID and the acceleration of generative-AI deployment. We argue that GAGI is a necessary complement to GDP-based monitoring: any macroeconomic monitoring instrument that tracks only aggregate output will systematically miss the distributional harm that automation can cause even while reported growth remains strong.

The classical Second Welfare Theorem decentralizes any Pareto efficient allocation through prices and transfers under convexity and regularity. In post AGI economies, autonomy rights, self-modification, identity continuity, and superposed preferences need not behave as commodities or define a stable welfare relation, so this reduction may fail even when a supporting hyperplane exists. We give an autonomy-qualified Second Welfare Theorem stating the joint conditions convexity, stable moral status, non-fungible rights, welfare selection, non manipulation, governed self modification, and verification under which an autonomy Pareto optimum remains certifiably decentralizable, distinguishing economic preference superposition, a hypothesis about context-indexed choice, from neural feature superposition.

Can artificial intelligence (AI) refute economic theory? I document experiments in which I asked several AI models (Gemini, Refine, Claude, and ChatGPT) to check the correctness of four published papers in economic theory, each containing an error that I helped identify or correct. ChatGPT Pro performed best, occasionally constructing counterexamples and corrected proofs, while other models fared worse. However, no model located a true error without substantial human guidance, and data contamination complicates interpretation. I argue that a competent human paired with a frontier model can outperform current peer review, but AI cannot yet refute economic theory on its own.

Does scientific publishing reward the quality of ideas or the advantage of connections? The question is universal to prestige-driven science, yet it has resisted decades of study because a paper's quality could not be gauged ahead of its publication fate without using that fate as the yardstick. We break this constraint by measuring a paper's idea quality directly from its text, before publication, using a discipline-trained LLM evaluator that scores the idea without seeing author names or outcomes. Using economics as a case study, we combine this text-legible idea-quality score with an execution-quality rubric, a connection index, an author-ability index, and an off-the-shelf language-model text score to estimate a five-input production function for journal placement across 6,208 economics working papers. The inputs are not rivals but a sequence along the ladder of prestige. Execution sets a meritocratic floor and is the largest input overall. Text-legible idea quality grades the rungs in between. Connections set a favoritism ceiling that bites mainly near the apex, the most selective journals. Connections work through two additive channels: connected authors write papers that score higher, and at equal scores their papers are still more likely to place better. Yet this advantage is bounded. Connections raise the odds of every rung without making the apex the typical outcome for ordinary ideas, and even the highest-scoring papers face real friction reaching the visible journal ladder. The result nests, rather than chooses between, the meritocracy and network accounts of how science is published.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a critical avenue for enhancing Large Language Models' performance, yet real-world deployment is constrained by strict computational budgets. In this work, we formulate inference budget allocation as a global constrained optimization problem governed by economic principles. By modeling per-query reasoning utility with a shifted-surge function, we derive an optimal allocation policy based on a global shadow price that equilibrates marginal utility under resource scarcity. Based on this theory, we propose Constrained Latent-utility Equilibrium Allocation for Reasoning (CLEAR). It performs rational abandonment and reallocates resources from insolvent queries to solvable queries near their emergence thresholds. Extensive experiments on several reasoning tasks with different traffic streams demonstrate that CLEAR significantly improves the Pareto frontier of total token cost versus mean accuracy. In resource-scarce regimes, CLEAR achieves up to a 3x improvement in global accuracy compared to uniform allocation.

How can a population of agents self-orchestrate and self-adapt into stronger collective intelligence without centralized control? Inspired by Friedrich Hayek's economic theory of decentralized coordination in markets, we study this question through an agent economy in which agents compete via auctions for the right to act, exchange payments, and accumulate wealth from environmental rewards. These simple economic signals induce decentralized credit assignment, driving planning without global orchestration or explicit communication protocols. The population evolves through economic selection: effective agents accumulate wealth and are mutated via exploitation, while ineffective ones go bankrupt and are replaced via exploration. We show that, initialized with weak agents, the economy produces emergent multi-step reasoning strategies and outperforms stronger monolithic baselines across five agentic tasks, including mathematical reasoning, financial research, scientific research, accelerator design, and distributed-system optimization. We further provide theoretical insights into how economic dynamics shape agent behaviors, linking local incentives to long-term global performance. Our results suggest a new path to multi-agent intelligence: rather than engineering coordination, we can design decentralized incentive structures under which it automatically emerges.

The GDP of a country is modelled as the relative interaction between two agents - working hours, reflecting the social choice of a population, and Total Factor Productivity, reflecting the collective investment in productivity enhancers. It is shown that a Random Forest model can accu- rately predict the GDP from these two factors. The differences in the choices made by Germany and USA are analysed though Gini importance, SHAP plots and partial dependency. It is shown that the differences in the social structure of the countries are reflected in the relative contribution of working hours and productivity to the GDP.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) has significantly enhanced LLM reasoning, yet often incurs substantial computational overhead due to "overthinking": generating excessively long rationales without commensurate accuracy gains. Existing efficiency methods typically apply uniform compression, which overlooks a critical observation that reasoning complexity is heterogeneous at two distinct granularity: across different problems and within individual reasoning steps. This motivates our principle of Thinking Economically: intelligently allocating computational resources based on intrinsic task and step demands rather than pursuing uniform brevity. We propose Hierarchical Adaptive Budgeter (HAB), a training framework that operationalizes this principle through coarse-to-fine budgeting. At the inter-step level, HAB predicts the optimal reasoning depth for each problem. At the intra-step level, HAB learns step-specific token budgeting signals from PPL-derived step comparisons and an adaptive Pareto optimization objective that captures the local quality-efficiency trade-off, while a Fisher Information-based pruner further provides fine-grained training-time guidance, thereby encouraging the generator to internalize more economical reasoning patterns. Experiments on GSM8K and MATH500 show that HAB not only surpasses standard CoT in accuracy but also reduces token usage, achieving a stronger performance-efficiency trade-off than the compared baselines.

Reliable measurement of income and consumption is essential for monitoring poverty and inequality in low- and middle-income countries, yet full household surveys are costly and difficult to implement regularly. This paper examines whether reduced survey instruments can preserve key distributional information. We apply Random Forest Recursive Feature Elimination (RF-RFE) to the 2018/19 Nigeria General Household Survey-Panel to identify the income sources, consumption categories and household characteristics that best classify individuals within the welfare distribution. The analysis focuses on three outcomes: poverty status, location in the quintile distribution and position relative to the Gini-based inequality line. The survey's post-planting and post-harvest periods allow us to assess performance under different seasonal contexts. Results show that RF-RFE achieves strong classification accuracy with few predictors. For consumption, poverty status and inequality-line position are accurately predicted using a small set of expenditure categories, while quintile classification reaches about 80 percent accuracy for seasonal consumption and 60--65 percent for annual consumption predicted from a single seasonal visit. For income, poverty status reaches around 90 percent accuracy with five predictors, and inequality-line position is largely captured by labour earnings. The findings suggest that machine-learning methods can help improve survey design and reduce data requirements while retaining much of the distributional information needed to measure and monitor poverty and inequality.

The Linear Ordering Problem (LOP) is a fundamental combinatorial optimization problem with important applications in areas such as economics, social choice, and machine learning. Its most prominent use is the triangulation of economic input-output tables, which helps identify critical industries in an economy. Most existing algorithms have been evaluated on benchmarks derived from outdated macroeconomic data, which no longer reflect the structure of contemporary economies. Furthermore, LOP instances often exhibit many distinct global optima that can differ substantially from one another, creating challenges for applications that rely on a single solution. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel benchmark suite derived from up-to-date real-world economic data and an algorithmic scheme that leverages state-of-the-art LOP metaheuristics to generate diverse sets of high-quality solutions, together with metrics for assessing both quality and diversity. Experiments were conducted to report results on the proposed benchmark suite under both the traditional single-solution setting and the newly introduced multi-solution scenario

Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price sometimes increases predicted demand, and implied willingness-to-pay estimates are frequently negative or implausible. We propose a two-stage adapter that embeds foundation model predictions within a utility-maximization framework. In the first stage, we estimate a standard choice model whose parameters are constrained to obey economic theory. In the second stage, we freeze those parameters and train a correction term that incorporates the foundation model's predictions as additional information. The result is a model that inherits the foundation model's accuracy gains while guaranteeing monotonic price-demand relationships under policy perturbation and producing analytically computable trade-off measures. On two transportation datasets, the adapter recovers up to 13 percentage points of accuracy over a standard logit model while maintaining perfect economic consistency, something neither the raw foundation models nor conventional distillation achieve.

Current benchmarks for occupational AI agents are scoped primarily by economic values, telling a replacement story. We introduce JobBench, which evaluates AI agents on the workflows that experts identify as high-priority for delegation, empowering humans based on their needs instead of replacing them with GDP value. JobBench covers 130 agentic tasks across 35 occupations. Each task is packaged as a workspace of heterogeneous reference files, requiring the agent to reason through the cluttered information streams of real professional work. Outputs are graded by a fact-anchored chain of rubrics, averaging 35.6 binary criteria per task. We evaluate 36 models; the strongest, Claude Opus~4.7 under Claude Code, reaches only 45.9 %. We hope JobBench shifts the community's target labour-market effect from replacement to enhancement: building agents that do what humans actually want delegated, not only what is most economically valuable.

We develop a unified microeconomic and monetary theory of artificial intelligence inference costs and their pass-through to inflation, welfare, and optimal monetary policy. We introduce the Inference-Cost Phillips Curve (ICPC), an augmented New Keynesian Phillips curve in which firm-level marginal costs of producing differentiated goods include a non-trivial AI inference component lambda-bar, and prove a closed-form structural slope kappa_inf = lambda-bar * kappa, where kappa is the standard Calvo-Yun slope. We derive a welfare-relevant Hicks-Kaldor decomposition of consumer welfare under inference-cost shocks, prove a generalized Taylor principle for the inference-augmented economy, and characterize the optimal monetary policy response coefficient psi_inf = (1 + phi*rho) * lambda-bar * kappa under commitment. A second-order welfare loss formula closes the model in closed form. We confront the theory with U.S. monthly data 2022:M01-2026:M04 using a two-step GMM estimator with Newey-West HAC standard errors and Hansen J-test, recovering an empirical slope kappa-hat_inf = 0.087 (HAC s.e. 0.021) which lies within one standard error of the structural prediction. A scaling regression over 50 rolling-window subwindows yields b-hat = 0.987 (R^2 = 0.998), consistent with a near-unit-elasticity pass-through. A G7 reduced-form panel with Driscoll-Kraay HAC standard errors yields b-hat^G7 = 0.094 (s.e. 0.026), and a Wald test fails to reject cross-country homogeneity (p = 0.78). The framework provides a single equilibrium scaffold for the joint study of AI inference cost dynamics, monetary policy under generative-AI shocks, and the welfare cost of inference-driven inflation.