Delay

Temporal reports are increasingly emitted alongside numerical forecasts and are often interpreted as statements about the computation producing those forecasts. We formalize the resulting certification problem as three distinct stages: \emph{recoverability}, \emph{report correctness}, and \emph{functional use}. For point delays, an exact finite-sample recovery--substitutability identity ties structural discrimination and proxy prediction to the same realized shift geometry while placing them on different scales: structural evidence grows with $nη_n$, whereas the normalized predictive penalty is governed by $η_n$. A delay can therefore be statistically decisive while an alternative lag remains near-oracle. Guided by this regime, we evaluate TCN- and N-HiTS-based systems on the strict intersection of recoverable trajectories, correct reports, and near-oracle one-step predictions. Their dominant forecast dependence remains far from the reported delay under masking, finite perturbations, local Jacobians, and in-distribution conditional replacement, and the separation persists across a 100-fold forecast-loss sweep. A no-bypass factorization then provides an explicit access certificate for the final stage, while architecture-matched multi-seed, post-hoc, and gate-destruction controls identify report-coordinate access as the mechanism governing alignment. The resulting framework separates statistical evidence for \emph{what can be identified} from computational evidence for \emph{what the forecast uses}.

Multi robot teams performing cooperative transportation face a fundamental challenge: maintaining stable control while keeping communications efficient. This paper investigates how adaptive sampling time adjustment informed by measured network delay and strategic leader rotation can distribute wireless load fairly across the team. We use physics based simulation in MuJoCo with realistic wireless modeling, including time division multiple access, medium access control, jitter, queueing, and packet loss, to evaluate three control approaches: fixed sampling with static leadership, dynamic sampling with static leadership, and dynamic sampling with rotating leadership. Our results reveal an important trade off: dynamic sampling effectively reduces communications overhead without compromising control performance, while rotating the leader role meaningfully improves how fairly airtime is distributed all with negligible impact on the team carrying ability. to the best of our knowledge, being among the first to jointly examine dynamic sampling, rotating leadership, and wireless protocol interactions in physicsrealistic multi robot cooperation, this work provides practical guidance for deploying coordinated robotic teams in real world settings where communications resources are limited.

Communication delay remains a central challenge in telerobotics, where it disrupts visuomotor coordination and reduces task precision. Motion scaling is an effective countermeasure to delay-induced overshoot, yet typical deployments rely on uniform gains that neglect individual and contextual variability. We propose a human-centered method that fits personalized delay-, direction-, and distance-specific scaling parameters for each participant. We conducted experiments with twenty participants who performed delayed reaching tasks in a virtual simulator. Scaling gains were computed to minimize mean overshoot in simulation in each combination of experimental conditions. Evaluation was done in simulation and on a telesurgical robot to evaluate assistance benefits. Performance was assessed across multiple delays, distances, and movement directions using overshoot, endpoint error, trajectory smoothness, economy of motion, and a composite error-time metric. Motion scaling consistently improved performance relative to unassisted trials, yielding up to 20-25% performance gains in key metrics. Effects were most pronounced at longer delays. Personalization demonstrated additional accuracy benefits for inward reaching at a short distance under moderate delay. The results highlight the potential of personalized scaling as a foundation for more adaptive frameworks that integrate contextual information to improve the safety and precision of teleoperated procedures.

One of the most challenging problems entertainment live-streaming services face in recommendation systems is that user behaviors are sparse and delayed, and interaction data exhibits bias for different user segments. Unlike e-commerce applications where user actions follow linear sequences, live-streaming viewers engage in multiple concurrent behaviors of watching, chatting, following, and spending, each occurring with varying delays. We address these challenges through three key contributions: 1) a delayed window approach that extends feedback collection beyond immediate responses, 2) a multi-model architecture that combines fresh and delayed signals, and a segment-aware targeting module that optimizes ranking scores differently across user lifecycle stages, and 3) Multi-gate Mixture-of-Experts (MMoE) integration that jointly models correlated targets while reducing model parameters by 41.9% compared to independent models. Online A/B testing demonstrates significant improvements, including a +0.09% increase in Daily Active Viewers (DAV), generating millions more annual active viewer days, and +0.56% increase in highly engaged viewers' capped Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Viewer-segment targeting achieved an additional +0.15% DAV improvement for newer and less engaged viewers, while MMoE enhancement added +0.08% overall DAV and +0.27% new follows. The proposed system processes ranking requests with low latency, providing a scalable approach for balancing multiple business objectives across diverse user populations. In addition, we tested the multi-model architecture on the Twitch mobile live feed and achieved a +1.12% increase in positive user-channel interactions (clicks, follows, and likes), demonstrating applicability beyond the primary use case.

This paper studies learning-augmented and randomized online aggregation with delays on a line metric. We consider advice given as online suggested service lengths, and evaluate the algorithms in terms of robustness and consistency. For each $λ\in (0,1]$, we first propose a deterministic learning-augmented \textsc{Balance} algorithm that is $(4/λ+1/λ^2)$-robust and $(4+λ)$-consistent. We also propose a randomized algorithm for the problem in the classical adversarial model, which is $(e+1)$-competitive against an oblivious adversary, improving over the deterministic $5$-competitive \textsc{Balance} benchmark~\cite{bienkowski2013chain}. Notably, this competitive ratio is even lower than the lower bound of $4$ for deterministic online algorithms. Moreover, we establish a lower bound of $e$ on the competitive ratio of randomized online algorithms, improving the previous lower bound of $e/(e-1)$. Besides, we combine the two ideas and obtain a randomized learning-augmented algorithm that is $(e/λ+1/λ^2)$-robust and $(e+λ)$-consistent. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to complement our theoretical analysis and evaluate the empirical performance of our algorithms.

Large language model (LLM) agents automate penetration testing through an observation-action loop, selecting actions based on observations returned by tools. This dependence allows defenders to inject deceptive observations that can mislead the agent's decision-making process. However, existing defenses rely heavily on static, isolated artifacts planted in the environment prior to an attack. Advanced agents can progressively recognize and bypass these artifacts, ultimately refocusing their exploitation attempts on the real target. To address this issue, we introduce AgentSnare, a trajectory-adaptive deception system that dynamically unfolds a decoy environment to continually steer the penetration agent away from the real target. Specifically, AgentSnare employs an artifact-construction policy model that constructs candidate artifacts conditioned on the agent's interaction history and decoy state. AgentSnare then validates these candidates and incrementally incorporates valid artifacts into a factually consistent decoy environment, thereby delaying the attack by absorbing its tool calls, diverting its post-entry trajectory within the decoy, and defusing it by inducing completion reports grounded in decoy evidence. Across 15 CVE-Bench web applications and three attacker models, AgentSnare absorbs 46.8% of the agent's tool calls in the decoy and retains 55.9% of post-entry actions there, while 90.0% of completion attempts are grounded in decoy evidence; across all 45 attacker-CVE pairs, no real target is successfully exploited at pass@3.

Deploying learned control policies on low-cost robotic platforms introduces transport latencies and noisy motor feedback that systematically widens the sim-to-real gap. The chasm of simulation to deployment in hardware lies in the delay of the actuator reaching the commanded position. On platforms such as the Mini Pupper 2, a measured >50 ms transport delay transforms the locomotion task from a standard Markov decision process into a partially observable one. In this paper, we take a biologically inspired approach of handling noisy and delayed feedback to close the sim-to-real gap, thereby expanding the capability of reinforcement learning on cost-constrained hardware. Using a low-cost quadrupedal hardware platform, we find that using a forward model of the average actuator delay, paired with a time-aware neural network results in robust locomotion. Additionally, our time-aware neural network learned a central pattern generator (CPG): a self-sustaining rhythmic gait that is robust to +320 ms latency perturbations, mirroring the CPGs found in the spinal cords of vertebrates. We posit that temporal self-organization may be a general strategy for cost-constrained locomotion.

Cable-driven manipulators exhibit strong nonlinearities and low structural stiffness, which make precise control challenging under time-varying uncertainties and external disturbances. This paper presents a time-delay-estimation (TDE)-based adaptive fractional-order nonsingular terminal sliding mode (AFONTSM) control strategy for cable-driven robots. A robust controller is constructed within a TDE-based model-free framework by combining fractional-order nonsingular terminal sliding mode error dynamics with a fast terminal sliding mode reaching law. The main contribution is a new adaptive law that introduces an adaptive exponential term into the update gain to form a nonlinear adaptive mechanism. This design improves adaptive regulation under different operating conditions by suppressing noise-induced chattering during smooth tracking while preserving or enhancing the adaptive gain during trajectory reversal. Lyapunov analysis proves the ultimate uniform boundedness of the tracking error. Experimental results show that, compared with the baseline method, the proposed controller reduces RMSE by 34.52% and 31.11%, ITAE by 33.79% and 32.97%, and ISCT by 6.69% and 17.77% for the two joints, respectively. Further comparisons with recently reported adaptive laws demonstrate that the proposed law provides faster adaptive response, more stable gain evolution, and improved chattering suppression. Additional payload tests further verify the robustness and repeatability of the proposed method.

Long-horizon conversion prediction under delayed feedback creates a two-clock, two-window learning problem in online advertising. A short base observation window releases recent clicks on the click clock before their outcomes mature, whereas conversions continue to arrive on the conversion clock throughout a longer target conversion window. The click clock provides timely but partially observed status supervision. The conversion clock reveals long-tail delays, but the delay composition within an arrival-time slice is weighted by historical click cohorts with different traffic volumes and target-window conversion rates. We present TWICE, a framework that factorizes long-horizon post-click conversion rate (CVR) into a target-window conversion probability and a grouped elapsed-delay cumulative distribution function (CDF). The two clocks provide complementary supervision. Click-clock records train the target-window CVR head through a current-status likelihood over the base observation window. Newly arrived conversions train the delay model on the conversion clock. To account for the cohort mixture, TWICE uses fixed click-time predicted CVR (pCVR) mass as cohort exposure in an arrival-conditioned likelihood. This accounts for differences in cohort traffic and conversion propensity. The resulting aggregate records are self-contained. A single learned CDF produces monotone predictions for all requested horizons up to the target conversion window. Serving requires neither historical lookup nor convolution. Experiments on a public benchmark and an industrial advertising dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of TWICE. In an online A/B test in Kwai's advertising system, TWICE increased expected revenue, revenue, and conversions by 2.486%, 1.858%, and 2.061%, respectively. It was subsequently deployed to full traffic.

City-scale autonomous vehicle fleet coordinators are typically optimized for aggregate travel time, yet fleet averages conceal how delay is distributed across trips and regions. We conduct a distributional audit on three real-city road-network and taxi-demand datasets from Manhattan, Chicago, and San Francisco. The audit reveals pervasive trip-length inequity whose direction depends on the city and coordinator. After accounting for trip length, spatial inequity becomes more pronounced as demand grows and is consistently stronger when trips are grouped by origin rather than destination. These findings motivate SPatially Aware RErouting (SPARE), a budgeted online coordination framework that assigns limited replanning capacity to delayed vehicles and redirects them using recently observed waiting pressure. SPARE provides a per-review decision guarantee and explicitly bounds online route updates. Experiments on all three datasets against six representative baselines show that SPARE delivers the strongest joint efficiency-fairness performance while retaining city-scale scalability. The results demonstrate that bounded congestion-responsive rerouting improves performance and equity without full-fleet replanning.

Delay-risk models are usually judged by predictive accuracy. What matters in practice is narrower: with capacity to review only a few shipments, which ones should a manager check first? We evaluate whether machine learning clears a demanding no-model baseline: inspect the highest-value shipments first. Across three real supply-chain contexts: SCMS procurement, DataCo logistics, and Olist e-commerce, we use leakage-controlled rolling-origin evaluation and 1000-sample paired bootstrap confidence intervals. Ranking by predicted delay severity times known value (M1) beats severity-only ranking in all three datasets, yet it does not generally beat value sorting. At a 10% review budget, M1 minus VALUE_ONLY is -5.5 percentage points (pp) for SCMS, +10.1 pp for DataCo, and -4.9 pp for Olist. The divide is consistent with severity learnability: DataCo has R^2 = 0.27 and calibration bias of +0.01 days, whereas SCMS and Olist have R^2 of approximately -0.02 and negative calibration bias. Nested-CV cost-sensitive retraining does not deliver a stable improvement over M1. Rather than proposing a new learning algorithm, this paper presents a deployment diagnostic and evaluation protocol. Value sorting should remain a permanent benchmark, and ML should be deployed only after severity learnability and calibration have been audited and the model clears that gate under leakage-controlled rolling-origin evaluation.

Companion work showed the grokking delay is causally the time to form task-structured representations, injectable via a contrastive prior. Here we characterize what makes such a prior work, across four axes, in 188 new runs. Content: a coherent, learnable prior built from the wrong feature family (magnitude bands) blocks generalization like a random partition (1/15 vs 0/20 grok; $p=0.43$ between them), confirming the companion's prediction that priors act at the level of the circuit's features. Supervision: a fully label-free invariance prior -- positives are commuted pairs $(a,b)\sim(b,a)$ only -- generalizes in 15/15 runs at a median $2.7\times$ speedup, more reliably than the label-supervised prior itself ($p=0.038$), and combined with a weight-norm clamp yields the strongest method we test (median $17\times$, 5/5) -- strongest meaning reliably fast: plain cross-entropy with a clamp matches this speed only at the exact critical norm, while the prior keeps it fast across the entire clamp range. Timing: the prior is only needed early -- applied solely during the first 2000 epochs (4% of budget) it generalizes 10/10 at $2.7\times$, beating continuous application (8/10, $1.25\times$) and a duration-matched later window ($2.1\times$). Setting: the dissociation replicates on modular multiplication and across depths and normalization variants, and a clamp sweep quantifies the companion's central claim: structure injection flattens the weight-norm delay-law exponent about 17-fold (plain cross-entropy slows $31\times$ per +10 norm units, a lower bound as higher cells are censored, versus $1.22\times$ with the prior). Honest boundary: tasks that generalize before memorizing have no delay to control. Feature-family alignment decides whether a prior permits generalization; invariance content suffices for acceleration without labels; a brief early window captures nearly all of the benefit.

Which properties of a partially trained network are causally portable to a different, independently trained network? Single-trajectory interventions show necessity within one run, not portability across runs. We introduce cross-trajectory chimera interventions: given two runs from different seeds, we split each weight vector into a norm and a unit direction, recombine one run's norm with the other's direction, and continue training. On two modular-arithmetic tasks that grok, the components dissociate. Direction carries a transferable, donor-specific circuit identity: implanting a donor's direction at the recipient's norm drives the run to the donor's circuit in 40/40 cases, while an angle-matched random control yields no shift. The transfer is threshold-like, and its location is predicted by the recipient's norm, separating perfectly by norm class over all 20 pairs (joint permutation probability 1.9e-4). Norm carries only a modest, distributed delay effect and no identity signal. An adaptive bisection procedure localizes the threshold to +/-1/64. Direction indexes which solution a trajectory approaches; norm governs how susceptible that identity is to being overwritten.

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), best known for positioning, also serve weather science, as atmospheric water vapour delays their signals. This delay, the Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD), is a direct, all-weather measure of column moisture. Although assimilated into numerical weather prediction for decades, ZWD is not yet used by leading machine learning weather models (MLWM), despite addressing a known deficiency: the underestimation of severe precipitation. Here we present the first integration of GNSS-derived ZWD into Aurora, a state-of-the-art weather foundation model. Our extended Aurora learns ZWD with skill comparable to its pretrained variables. More importantly, including ZWD systematically improves forecasts when fine-tuning for six-hour accumulated precipitation. Gains grow with severity, reaching an 8.8% increase in Equitable Threat Score at the 99th percentile, while the precipitation power spectrum becomes more realistic at synoptic and planetary scales. Direct GNSS observations therefore encode information that MLWM can exploit for high-impact precipitation.

Reinforcement learning in real world environments often suffers from severe performance degradation due to delayed feedback. Existing approaches typically mitigate performance degradation caused by observation delays by constructing augmented states or predicting the true states. However, these methods often overlook the inherent discrepancy between delayed state and true states induced by stochastic MDP. We theoretically prove the existence of such a discrepancy and show that it leads to the degradation of the optimal policy. To address this challenge, we propose Diffusion Guided Uncertainty Aware Delayed Policy Optimization (DUPO). Our method explicitly models the relationship between delayed state message and the current state using a diffusion model, and leverages the resulting discrepancy estimates to weight delayed policies. Extensive experiments on continuous robotic control tasks with multiple stochastic delays demonstrate that DUPO consistently outperforms existing methods and remains effective even under long and random delay scenarios.

Grokking -- generalization long after training-set interpolation -- has been accelerated by structure-agnostic interventions (gradient filtering, weight-norm clamping, geometric penalties). Whether the delay specifically measures the time to form task-structured representations has remained observational. We test it causally by injecting representational priors of varying content into a one-layer transformer learning modular addition, via a supervised-contrastive loss whose positives encode (i) the task's true structure ($(a+b) \bmod p$), (ii) a coherent-but-wrong sibling ($(a-b) \bmod p$), or (iii) a random partition -- all with identical loss form, strength, class sizes, and geometry. Whether generalization occurs follows a clean gradation: true 22/30 runs, sibling (same periodic features, wrong combination) 14/15, random (only memorizable) 0/20 (Fisher $p=1.3\times10^{-7}$). A weight-norm-matched control replaying the norm trajectory onto plain cross-entropy generalizes 0/15, ruling out the norm as mediator. Probes show structure formation precedes and predicts generalization in all runs. Only the true structure also accelerates grokking (up to $2.75\times$), but this is dose-dependent and bimodal. We then confirm the mechanism by prediction: because the acceleration is gated by a weight-norm side-effect, clamping the norm during training yields a reliable, standalone accelerator with a median $8.6\times$ speedup (up to $22\times$ on the fastest seeds, under 1000 epochs), growing monotonically as the norm is held lower; the residual stalls also vanish, though significant only pooled over the two mitigations run at both strengths ($0/40$ vs $6/20$, $p=7.7\times10^{-4}$), not per method. The grokking delay is, causally, the time to form the right representational structure -- decided at the level of features, not labels.

In many multisensor systems, measurements from different sensors are subject to unknown relative time delays. Accurate state estimation requires that delays be accounted for and, when possible, calibrated online. We consider the case of aided navigation, where measurements from a single aiding sensor are subject to an unknown but constant delay relative to the inertial measurement stream, and study the identifiability of the resulting system. Critically, identifiability depends not only on the temporal structure of the measurements, but also on the shape of the vehicle trajectory: some trajectories are sufficiently informative to support unique recovery of the delay and the navigation state, while others are not. Using the special Galilean group, we characterize these uninformative (or degenerate) trajectories and relate them to a continuous symmetry of the delayed measurement model, providing geometric insight into identifiability failures. We show that the class of trajectories for which identifiability fails is larger than previously reported, and connect our characterization to the familiar linearized, Jacobian-based analysis. Although our development is motivated by aided navigation, the underlying ideas apply more broadly to estimation problems on Lie groups with delayed measurements.

Radio frequency (RF) maps provide a compact representation of multipath propagation characteristics and are fundamental to channel modeling, coverage analysis, and environment-aware wireless optimization. This paper proposes a unified RF map construction framework based on a physics-informed neural network (PINN) and a graph neural network (GNN), supporting both cross-scene generation and in-scene completion with 2D and 2.5D environmental representations. The PINN embeds electromagnetic propagation constraints to establish a physically consistent mapping from receiver locations to multipath parameters, including path gain, time of arrival, and angles, while the GNN enforces spatial consistency by modeling correlations among neighboring receivers. To comprehensively evaluate multipath reconstruction quality, we propose a peak-weighted dynamic time warping metric that jointly accounts for amplitude errors and peak delay misalignment in channel impulse responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms image-based, diffusion-based, and interpolation baselines across both map-level and multipath-level metrics, achieving robust generalization and high-fidelity RF map construction under sparse observations.

Modern large-scale LLM pretraining benefits from utilizing Pipeline Parallelism; however, synchronous implementations leave GPUs idle during pipeline bubbles, wasting computational resources. Asynchronous Pipeline Parallelism eliminates these bubbles, maximizing throughput at the cost of gradient staleness. Among asynchronous schedules, PipeDream-2BW is particularly appealing: unlike the original PipeDream schedule, it ensures a constant one-step gradient delay regardless of pipeline depth. However, its adoption remains limited due to the common belief that optimizing under staleness is fundamentally unstable. In this work, we challenge this assumption, demonstrating that degradation under one-step delay depends strongly on optimizer choice rather than being an intrinsic limitation. We provide the first comprehensive empirical analysis showing that while AdamW, the predominant optimizer at the time when PipeDream-2BW was introduced, indeed suffers from severe degradation, recent methods like Muon exhibit strong robustness under a one-step delay. We introduce an optimizer-agnostic Error Feedback-inspired correction to further mitigate delay effects. We provide supporting theoretical analysis demonstrating convergence for Muon with and without this correction. Extensive evaluation on models up to 10B parameters confirms that our strategies bridge the performance gap with synchronous training, highlighting the practical potential of asynchronous pipeline parallelism at scale.

In aided inertial navigation, measurements from different sensors are often subject to unknown relative time delays. Consider a single aiding sensor whose measurements have an unknown but constant delay relative to the inertial-measurement data stream. We study the identifiability of the delay and the initial navigation state that parameterizes the trajectory. Identifiability depends on both the temporal structure of the aiding measurements and the form of the trajectory itself. Our geometric analysis shows that, for a larger class of uninformative (i.e., degenerate) trajectories than has previously been reported, the delayed measurement model admits a continuous symmetry that prevents unique delay-and-state recovery.

Autonomously controlling and handling a vehicle at and beyond its stability limit is a mathematically and computationally demanding task. Prior demonstrations of automated drifting have been limited to research platforms with instantaneous torque delivery and independently actuated wheels, leaving their applicability to production vehicles with actuator latencies and mechanically coupled axles uncertain. To overcome these issues, we design a predictor to compensate for powertrain delays, develop a revised control formulation to accommodate higher actuation latencies as well as a differential coupling on the driven axle, and introduce brake-based velocity stabilization. This paper presents the controller framework, the model extensions, and real-world experimental results. We observe that our controller enables a production sports car with a combustion engine to robustly sustain circular and figure-eight drifts, limiting lateral error to 1.1 m and sideslip overshoot to 0.06 rad despite actuator delays exceeding 250 ms, while mitigating oscillations and maintaining stable path and sideslip tracking. In conclusion, our results establish that autonomous drifting is feasible on production-ready vehicles, opening pathways to advanced safety systems capable of stabilizing cars in scenarios where traditional control fails.

Streaming video understanding (SVU) must answer queries that arrive asynchronously while visual tokens stream continuously under strict GPU-memory and query-time latency budgets. A key challenge is delayed query: decisive cues may appear briefly, yet many subsequent updates occur before the query arrives, increasing the risk that those cues are evicted or diluted under bounded memory. We propose ProtoKV, a constant-footprint SVU memory that represents far history as a fixed-capacity summary state rather than retaining token instances. ProtoKV keeps an exact near-window KV cache and aggregates older content into a semantic-spatial prototype bank with residual statistics. At query time, each prototype is exposed through a bounded pseudo-token interface that is drop-in compatible with standard attention. Under matched budgets and comparable query-time cost, ProtoKV improves accuracy by up to 12.5 points over token-retention baselines on SVU benchmarks in the long-delay regime, with gains that grow as query delay increases.

Deliberating takes time. In real-time settings, that time is not free. Standard reinforcement learning (RL) sidesteps this as the environment waits indefinitely for the agent's decision. Instead, we study real-time RL environments where the environment progresses while waiting for the agent's action. Building on prior real-time formalizations, we introduce variable-delay real-time RL, where the agent chooses how long to deliberate at each decision point since the environment progresses. For the planning agents we use, the right delay is state-dependent, and naively planning how long to plan can paralyze the agent. We instead approach this setting by training a lightweight gating policy on top of a planner to select state-dependent planning budgets. Across real-time Pac-Man, Tetris, Snake, Speed Hex, and Speed Go, our gating policy outperforms fixed-budget and heuristic baselines, and transfers to a real-time setup where the environment and agent run on two different GPUs.

Online learning is crucial for handling complex data streams in big data applications. Recent research has begun to focus on dynamic scenarios, i.e., non-stationary environments. However, a crucial yet often overlooked aspect is label latency, where new data may not receive labels in time due to the slow and expensive labeling process, thus hindering rapid adaptation to dynamic environments. To resolve this impasse, we propose Dual-Track Geometry Online Learning (DT-GOL), a novel framework that shifts from temporal compensation to spatial reasoning to bridge the supervised latency gap. By modeling the delay challenge as a semi-supervised task, we leverage real-time topological evolution of features as a reliable geometric surrogate for unobservable conceptual changes to achieve proactive supervised adaptation within the delay window. Unlike rigid self-training, we introduce a dynamic evidence calibration mechanism that distills geometric information into soft labels that perceive uncertainty, effectively mitigating the confirmation bias inherent in hard pseudo-labels. Furthermore, to resolve the stability-plasticity dilemma, we design a decoupled dual-track architecture in which a master learner serves as a stable anchor, updated strictly from delayed ground truth, while a transient branch leverages soft geometric knowledge for low-risk forward adaptation. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DT-GOL significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art baseline methods, especially in scenarios with concept drift.

This paper studies a class of distributed optimization problems in networked nonlinear systems (NNSs) subject to input delays and consensus constraints. It introduces input-delay tolerant semiglobal convergence (IDTSC), meaning that for any prescribed compact initial set there exists an admissible delay bound under which the optimal solution is computed within consensus constraints and all node states converge to the solution. Building on a hierarchical design and input-to-state stability analysis, a new semiglobal input-delay tolerant (SIDT) algorithm is developed that practically achieves IDTSC for distributed optimization under the coupling between input delays and nonlinear dynamics. Further, by relaxing strict convexity requirements through the Polyak-Łojasiewicz condition, the SIDT algorithm broadens its applicability to nonconvex optimization. Finally, numerical experiments corroborate the theory on NNSs with input delays.

Grokking, the delayed jump from memorization to generalization, is usually tied to the weight norm: a smaller norm generalizes sooner. We ask what the norm actually controls. Holding the weight norm fixed by clamping and varying only an output temperature, we slide the grokking delay across its entire norm-induced range under cross-entropy; matching the effective logit scale back to baseline recovers about 85% of the delay at two moduli. Across a grid of norms and temperatures the delay collapses onto the logit scale alone (R2 = 0.97), with the norm adding 1-2% beyond it. The effect is loss-dependent: under mean-squared error the logit scale is pinned and the norm acts through a different route. A memorization control, a float64 softmax-collapse audit, and a no-LayerNorm transformer point to the same channel. Forking arms from one identical state, the delay follows the held norm value and not the clamp operation, which closes a rescaling-artifact concern. The proximal variable is the logit scale and the softmax saturation it drives; the weight norm is only an upstream handle. All numbers, tables, and figures reproduce from released code and data.

In this paper, we study a sequential workforce management problem in a contingent labor setting with uncertainty in both worker production and labor supply. A firm seeks to maximize cumulative profit by maintaining an active team of fixed size while learning worker productivity over time. We emphasize two critical operational frictions in this problem: replacing workers is costly, and workers may not be available immediately for hiring because of, for example, prior job commitments, scheduling constraints, or onboarding procedures. Thus, hiring decisions take effect only after a random delay. We formulate this problem as a stochastic multi-play bandit with costly switching and delayed actions, and develop a learning-based hiring policy, DR-UCB (DelayedReplacement-UCB), that makes replacement and hiring decisions sequentially through learning cycles. In each cycle, the policy uses real-time production data to determine when to initiate workforce changes and which workers to replace and hire. We show that the leading-order regret of the proposed policy matches its lower bound in its dependence on the time horizon. Our numerical experiments show that DR-UCB outperforms benchmark policies.

We study stochastic linear bandits with delayed feedback under several delay models and establish near-optimal regret guarantees. Our results identify when delayed linear bandits exhibit the same qualitative behavior as multi-armed bandits (MAB), and when the linear structure creates fundamentally new challenges. Specifically, (1) for \emph{loss-independent delays}, where the delay does not depend on the realized loss (but potentially depends on the arm), we show that delays incur only an additive regret penalty. Under stochastic delays, this penalty scales with the expected delay, while under adversarial delays, it scales with the maximum number of outstanding observations. Notably, both delay penalties are dimension-free, improving upon the state-of-the-art results; (2) for \emph{loss-dependent delays}, we show that linear bandits are substantially harder than MAB: unlike in MAB, we prove matching (up to log factors) upper and lower bounds in linear bandits, whose delay penalty depends on the square root of the dimension. (3) for the \emph{delay-as-payoff model}, a special case of loss-dependent delay, we show that the optimal MAB guarantee, which depends only on the delay of the optimal arm, is also unattainable in linear bandits. Together, these results provide a sharp characterization of how delayed feedback interacts with linear generalization.

Grokking is the delayed onset of generalization in neural networks, arising long after they fit the training data. Whether the weight norm causes this delay is disputed: some studies report a critical norm at the transition, others observe grokking with no fixed norm at all. We settle this by intervening on the norm during training rather than only observing it. Under free training with weight decay, networks grok when the weight norm reaches a value Wc that varies little across seeds and learning rates (CV 1 to 2 percent) and grows with the modular base as a power law. When we instead clamp the norm to a fixed multiple rho of Wc and hold it there, the network still groks, but the delay follows T_grok proportional to exp(alpha rho). One exponent, alpha near 7.5, fits this delay across four moduli (R^2 = 0.996). Over the swept ranges the held norm moves the delay by about 19x and the learning rate by only about 2x, and holding the norm above Wc slows grokking rather than preventing it. A final LayerNorm removes the dependence by decoupling weight scale from the network function; without it the exponential law returns. This pinned-norm delay is the exponential counterpart to the logarithmic delay predicted for a freely contracting norm.

Token-level hallucination detectors are evaluated as classifiers, by AUC over all tokens, yet a streaming monitor is judged by its reaction time: the number of tokens that pass between the onset of a hallucination and the alarm. We formulate hallucination onset detection as a quickest change detection problem. A first-order Markov model of the latent faithful/hallucinated state, validated on RAGTruth, places the task inside classical change-point theory and yields Lorden's lower bound on detection delay: about 1.3 tokens at a false-alarm rate of 0.01. We then show that a causal recurrent labeler acts as a CUSUM with a learned increment. Among the onsets it catches it detects in 11-13 tokens, against 31 for a linear per-token baseline, though at this false-alarm budget every detector catches under a third of onsets and the recall-honest delay is 56-66 tokens: low-false-alarm onset detection is hard. A controlled decomposition attributes the speed advantage mostly to a better per-token score rather than to temporal accumulation. An information-rate optimality theorem of Donsker-Varadhan type explains the remaining order-of-magnitude gap: the learned score realizes only 1/4.5 of the divergence the features carry, a deficit that recalibration cannot remove, with the remainder a finite-horizon effect. Classification metrics conceal this delay structure; sequential analysis makes it measurable.

We introduce SPADE (SPlit And Delay Embeddings), an autoregressive transformer for sequences whose tokens carry multiple features. Rather than embedding these features jointly, SPADE embeds them independently. Delaying each feature stream relative to the previous one allows intra-token correlations to be learned by the standard self-attention mechanism. Applied to point-cloud calorimeter shower generation in the highly granular ILD detector, SPADE is competitive with the state of the art AllShowers model on photon showers, and substantially outperforms its VQ-VAE-based predecessor OmniJet-$α_C$. The mechanism is applicable to any generative task with multi-feature tokens, enabling LLM-style pretraining workflows for higher-dimensional data.

Classification of sleep stages is one of the most important diagnostic approaches for a variety of sleep-related disorders. Electroencephalography (EEG) is regarded as a powerful tool for examining the association between neurological effects and sleep phases since it correctly identifies sleep-related neurological alterations. During Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) and Rapid Eye Movement (REM) sleep phases, a number of nerve and bodily functions are affected and therefore hold an important role both in their functionalities. This work aims to classify NREM and REM sleep stages from sleep EEG data and present a noble SleepExplain model, an explainable NREM and REM sleep stage classification to explain its predictions. In this work, sleep stages were classified using Random Forest, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting ensemble classification models. Overall, we obtained an accuracy of 92.54% (Random Forest), 94.25% (Gradient Boosting), and 94.30% (XGBoost). For explainable classification model, we utilized a game theoretic approach, SHAP (SHapley Addictive exPlanations) to offer a convincing explanation for the prediction.

The prefrontal cortex (PFC) maintains goal information for action planning, but how recurrent circuits preserve it in an action-usable form over behavioral timescales remains unclear. Here we ask whether short-term synaptic plasticity (STP) can stabilize goal information as action-usable, goal-conditioned dynamics. We incorporated STP into a PFC-inspired reservoir computing model with basal-ganglia-inspired temporal-difference readout learning, and evaluated paired models with and without STP across 100 independently generated networks in a multistep goal-directed action-selection task with delayed execution. Goal identity was highly decodable during the delay even without STP, so STP was not required to form a linearly readable goal representation. Under state noise, however, success without STP fell from 75.8% to 49.5%, whereas the model with STP remained essentially unchanged (91.8% without noise versus 89.2% under noise; paired Cohen's dz=1.31). Time-resolved decoding, state-space separability, and action-value-difference analyses showed that STP preserved goal information as action-relevant goal-conditioned dynamics available at later action opportunities. Gain-matched and STP-state perturbation controls argued against a simple fixed recurrent-scaling explanation and supported online, history-dependent synaptic modulation. Effective-connectivity analyses showed delay-period goal-specific patterning that increased toward the later part of the trial with STP, where it should be read as goal- and task-state-conditioned patterning; effective connectivity without STP was time-invariant. A grid search identified a facilitation-dominant range of STP time constants associated with high success rates. These results suggest that STP supports robust goal-conditioned dynamics through dynamic modulation of goal-dependent effective recurrent connectivity.

LLM-agent budget overruns are a documented production failure class: a single retry loop can spend thousands of dollars before an operator notices, and the in-process integrity properties that would prevent it (no aliasing, no double-spend, no use-after-delegation of a cost-bearing value) are enforced, if at all, by ad-hoc wrappers rather than by the type system. Our central contribution is empirical: a catalog of 63 confirmed production incidents from 21 orchestration frameworks (2023-2026), each backed by a quoted GitHub issue and, where reported, a dollar loss, organized into an eight-cluster failure taxonomy (inter-rater Cohen's kappa = 0.837, N = 113), plus 47 supplementary structural entries. As one mitigation evaluated against this taxonomy, we build token-budgets, an 1,180-line Rust crate (no unsafe) that operationalizes affine ownership so that cloning, double-spending, or using a budget after delegating it are compile errors rather than runtime hazards an operator must remember to avoid. The dollar cap is runtime arithmetic under an estimator assumption; the affine layer makes that arithmetic non-bypassable. On single-agent workloads a 4-line Python counter matches the crate at 0/30 overshoot, so the distinguishing value is non-bypassability under operator error in multi-agent delegation: the delegation-fanout race documented in 11 incidents is rejected by the borrow checker at compile time, while the same pattern under asyncio overshoots 30/30 and three disciplined alternatives overshoot 0/30. Across five runtimes, three providers, and a temperature-stratified live-API test (N = 160), the approach reports zero cap violations and zero false refusals, at operational parity with concurrent work. Static over-reservation is 4-6x (2.11x adaptive). Binary-level cap-soundness on the running binary is left open.

Regulatory institutions (from content moderation platforms to financial supervisors) observe, deliberate, and intervene only after a characteristic delay. We ask whether this processing lag alone can destabilize a multi-agent system that would otherwise remain stable, without exogenous shocks, coordination among agents, or malicious actors. We study this in two stages. First, we analyze a delayed replicator equation in which autonomous agents benefit from radical behavior but face punishment based on a lagged institutional alarm signal. We derive a closed-form critical delay beyond which the unique interior equilibrium loses stability through a Hopf bifurcation, and prove via center manifold reduction that the bifurcation is supercritical (bounded oscillations, not explosive growth) for the entire sigmoid response family. Second, we embed N=240 agents on a network with reinforcement learning (tabular Q-learning) and cross institutional delay with three decision architectures: fixed-policy, reactive (a memoryless threshold heuristic), and Q-learning. The hierarchy is opposite to the naive expectation that learning amplifies instability. Reactive agents are perfectly stable without delay yet collapse once delay is introduced (96% runaway by delay >= 8); fixed-policy agents are immune (0% at all delays); Q-learning agents are only partially resilient (66% at delay 20). The destabilizing ingredient is reactivity to delayed signals, not learning: agents that immediately exploit low-alarm windows trigger oscillatory feedback loops, while learning buffers this through punishment memory encoded in value functions. Throughout, "runaway" denotes bounded large-amplitude oscillation crossing a radical-fraction threshold, consistent with the supercritical bifurcation, not unbounded growth.

Real-world multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) systems must often operate under stale observations, stochastic communication delays, and intermittent packet loss. Policies trained under idealized synchronous conditions frequently exhibit significant performance degradation in these regimes because they act on outdated feedback. We propose a modular execution-stage state-estimation layer that replaces delayed communicated observations with current belief-state estimates. The framework integrates a learned Gated transition model with a recursive Kalman filtering layer to estimate instantaneous states from asynchronous measurements. A primary advantage of this approach is its modularity, The estimator serves as a plug-in for pre-trained policies, requiring no modifications to the original MARL training algorithm, architecture, or reward structure. Evaluation across diverse multi-agent and continuous-control benchmarks demonstrates that the proposed layer consistently enhances robustness to communication latency and message loss. The most significant performance gains are observed in coordination-intensive and dynamically unstable tasks where temporal consistency is critical for control.

This research addresses the problem of adaptive modeling in time-series data streams with clear input-output relationships. This problem is challenging because rapid system changes (regime shifts) caused by environmental factors or input delay changes degrade model performance, and the trade-off among accuracy, robustness, and memory usage arises when using multiple small models for each time-series pattern. To address these issues, this paper presents an online framework/method that treats streaming time series as dynamic mixtures of time-delay systems. This framework maintains robustness of model tracking and reduces memory usage by summarizing past regimes using a fixed-length representation that captures both the system dynamics and input-output delays. Concretely, this approach constructs a summary system tensor using the system's Markov parameter series, capturing both dynamic behavior and delay characteristics. If necessary, a tensor decomposition algorithm extracts relevant past models from the tensor and helps select the system that best fits the current regime. This method enables rapid adaptation to environmental changes and is computationally efficient. Tests on real datasets show that DelayMix consistently outperforms other methods, achieving superior forecast accuracy and faster adaptation to delays, especially for highly non-stationary data.

Real-time chunking (RTC) lets chunked action policies operate under inference delay by conditioning a newly generated action chunk on actions already committed by the previous chunk. Training-time RTC simulates this delay during learning and avoids expensive guidance at deployment, but its binary prefix mask treats all non-prefix tokens as fully unconstrained. This under-models asynchronous execution: early overlap actions are fixed, while later overlap actions remain editable but should still stay close to the previous plan. We propose Soft RTC, a training-time RTC generalization based on action-prior denoising. Soft RTC constructs corrupted overlap tokens from partially denoised states instead of pure noise and injects the aligned previous chunk as the same prior during inference through a lightweight token-wise blending rule. On the 12 released large Kinetix levels, a short soft window nearly matches hard training-time RTC in overall solve rate (0.809 vs. 0.815), while a medium window reduces high-delay action delta and jerk by 9.1% and 9.6% relative to hard RTC. Both variants keep near-naive runtime, unlike inference-time RTC baselines. A small preliminary real-robot sorting study provides additional evidence that training-time RTC can improve completion and that Soft RTC gives the lowest commanded-action finite-difference metrics among the tested policies.

We study adversarial multi-armed bandits with and without delayed feedback under a safety-aware goal: achieving minimax-optimal worst-case regret while keeping nearly constant regret relative to a designated "safe" baseline policy. Existing approaches can balance this trade-off with immediate feedback for smooth comparators, but arbitrary delays can mistime transitions between conservatism and exploration, endangering the safety guarantee. To bridge this gap, we propose Prudent-Banker, a novel algorithm that combines a delay-adapted variant of Online Mirror Descent with a modified phased-aggression mechanism. Its key technical contribution is a delay-calibrated restart threshold that rigorously accounts for the worst-case distortion induced by unobserved feedback and reliably detects comparator suboptimality. We also establish new lower bounds for safety-constrained adversarial delayed bandits, showing that the regret guarantees of Prudent-Banker are unimprovable, up to logarithmic factors, under the baseline-safety requirement. To the best of our knowledge, Prudent-Banker is the first algorithm to achieve the optimal safety--robustness trade-off: pseudo-regret $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T}+\sqrt{D})$ together with $\widetilde{O}(1)$ regret against the safe comparator, both with and without delays. Experiments across diverse delay distributions show that, unlike standard delay-robust baselines, Prudent-Banker effectively balances safety and learning.

Construction projects frequently experience schedule delays and forecasting uncertainty due to variability in labor productivity, material availability, weather conditions, and project coordination. Conventional deterministic scheduling methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) assume fixed activity durations and therefore cannot adequately represent dynamic project uncertainty. This study presents a Bayesian-Monte Carlo probabilistic schedule updating framework for construction digital twin environments. The proposed methodology integrates stochastic activity-duration modeling, Bayesian recursive updating, Monte Carlo simulation, and uncertainty propagation within a unified computational framework for adaptive schedule forecasting. Activity durations are modeled using lognormal probability distributions and continuously updated through Bayesian inference as new project observations become available. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to propagate updated uncertainty throughout project networks and generate probabilistic completion-time forecasts, delay-risk estimates, and activity criticality measures. Simulation experiments using PSPLIB benchmark project networks demonstrate that the proposed framework improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty representation compared with deterministic CPM and static probabilistic scheduling approaches. The framework further supports adaptive project forecasting through integration of BIM reports, drone observations, IoT telemetry, productivity logs, and site monitoring data.

Multi-class event streams arise in numerous real-world applications, where uncovering structured, interpretable inter-event relationships, together with accurate prediction, remains a central challenge. Existing neural point process models are highly expressive but encode event interactions in a black-box manner, preventing explicit discovery of structured dependencies. In this paper, we propose a structured neural marked point process (SNMPP) that achieves high modeling flexibility while enabling explicit event-wise and class-wise relationship discovery from data. Our model constructs a product-form neural influence kernel composed of a signed interaction network over event types and a delay-aware monotonic temporal network. This design enables explicit characterization of inter-class influence topology -- including excitation, inhibition, and neutrality -- while flexibly capturing diverse temporal decay patterns and potential influence delays. For efficient learning, we develop a stratified Monte Carlo estimator for stochastic training. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets validate the ability of our approach to uncover structured relationships and deliver strong predictive performance.

Estimating the largest Lyapunov exponent from a scalar time series is difficult when the governing equations, tangent dynamics, and full state vector are unavailable. We propose FEG-Pro, a forecast-error growth profiling framework for nonlinear scalar time series. The method constructs autocorrelation-guided sparse histories, performs distance-weighted k-nearest-neighbor multi-horizon forecasting, and analyzes the logarithmic growth of geometrically averaged forecast errors. Its primary output is the finite-horizon forecast-error growth slope, lambda_FEG. When the error-growth curve supports a quasi-linear regime, this slope can be compared with reference largest Lyapunov exponents as an estimate of the dominant instability rate. The same pipeline also extracts the formal fit-selection regime, curvature, residual roughness after quadratic detrending, monotonicity, and forecast-error distribution entropy (FEDE) from signed multi-horizon errors. These secondary descriptors are intended not only as diagnostic controls for the slope, but also as candidate machine-learning features for nonlinear signal analysis, because they encode profile geometry and distributional uncertainty not captured by lambda_FEG alone. We evaluate the method on chaotic maps, Mackey-Glass delay dynamics, and scalar Lorenz-63 observables with known or reference exponents. Full-record experiments show good agreement in quasi-linear cases and meaningful curve-shape information in curved or weak profiles. A dyadic length-halving experiment on representative logistic, Mackey-Glass, and Lorenz records shows that residual roughness and mean FEDE often change monotonically and remain interpretable as record length decreases, even when the slope becomes biased or highly variable. The results support treating forecast-error growth as a structured profile and feature-generation framework rather than a single-number estimator.

Why does a Transformer that has memorized its training set wait thousands of steps before it generalizes? Existing accounts locate this delay in norm minimization, feature emergence, or the late discovery of sparse subnetworks. These explanations capture important parts of the transition, but ignore a constraint unique to attention-based models: if attention discards an informative token, no bounded downstream computation can recover it. We formalize attention as an implicit Bayesian posterior over the task dependency graph and prove that generalization requires two separable conditions: a familiar Goldilocks bound on MLP capacity, coinciding with norm-based theories of grokking, and a novel Bayesian structural condition requiring attention to place sufficient mass on every informative token. This decoupling explains delayed generalization as delayed structural inference. Early in training, the MLP memorizes through unaligned features, drives the cross-entropy loss near zero, and thereby starves attention of structural gradient. Weight decay must then erode memorization before the missing graph becomes learnable, yielding the known inverse-weight-decay delay, which we derive as a structural waiting time. We then prove that this explaining-away delay can be bypassed by a KL-based structural intervention, yielding an inverse-intervention-strength scaling law for the grokking time. Experiments on algorithmic sequence tasks isolate structure from capacity and show that this Bayesian ticket matches or outperforms lottery-ticket transfer.

Many Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position as the primary measurement to drive filter performance and bound error growth. However, commercial-grade GNSS receivers introduce unknown measurement delays ranging from 50 ms to 300 ms depending on sensor quality and operating mode. Such time delays can significantly degrade INS performance unless they are explicitly compensated for. Existing algorithms commonly estimate this delay offline, run the filter concurrently with GNSS measurements using buffered Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data, and predict the current state by forward-integrating buffered inertial measurements via IMU preintegration. The state-of-the-art online method is an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) that explicitly models the time delay as a state parameter, which defines the preintegration duration. This paper introduces a novel geometric framework for modeling time-delayed INS, in which Galilean symmetry is leveraged to provide a joint representation of space and time for consistent state estimation. An Equivariant Filter (EqF) is derived for the coupled estimation of navigation states and time delay. Validation is performed on two fixed-wing Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAV) with GNSS time lags of 90 ms and 120 ms. The test flights last two to three minutes. Simulations further investigate delays up to 500 ms and provide a statistical comparison against the state-of-the-art EKF. Results show that the EqF preserves accuracy and consistency, while the EKF lacks consistency and its performance degrades significantly with increasing measurement delays.

We give the first quantitative prediction of grokking delay under AdamW. Treating the delay as a first-passage time, we derive a closed-form law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star), where V_t = ||theta_t||^2 is the squared parameter norm, V_star is an architecture-dependent threshold, and kappa_LL absorbs the AdamW correction to the clean-SGD contraction rate 2 eta lambda. Calibrating (kappa_LL, V_star) on a single hyperparameter cell predicts grokking delays on 26 held-out runs with MAPE 17.7% over a 41x delay range; the law generalises to MLPs (MAPE 18.0%, N=34) and degrades to 23.3% on cross-task extension (N=46, 43.5x range), with a structured residual in which V_star / V_mem stays comparatively stable within architecture (CV about 14% on the 1L transformer). First-passage of V_t is necessary but not sufficient. A quantile-margin theorem establishes that positive delay requires both norm separation V_mem > V_post and angular reachability of a threshold alpha_star = arcsin(C / V_T_mem^(1/2)), where C is computable from the empirical NTK feature map and the validation-margin quantile. Calibrating C on modulus p=89 predicts alpha_star = 47.2 degrees at p=97 (observed 47.8 degrees, error 1.3%) as a prior cross-cell prediction. Causal interventions that freeze the norm or remove weight decay at memorisation eliminate grokking (0/6 vs. 3/3 baseline), trapping the angular displacement near 12 degrees. kappa_LL is empirically measured per architecture rather than derived from (beta_1, beta_2, epsilon); within-architecture CV stays at most 15% across four architectures, but values differ by about 2x between architectural variants beyond depth alone. Empirical scope is algorithmic tasks (modular arithmetic, sparse parity) under AdamW; whether the law transfers to natural-language scale models is open.

Decision-focused learning trains predictive models end-to-end against downstream decision loss, but online settings suffer delayed feedback: outcomes may not arrive for many environment interactions. We identify \emph{staleness amplification}, a failure mode unique to bilevel optimization under delay, in which gradient staleness couples with inner-solver sensitivity to inflate regret beyond single-level delay theory. We prove that any black-box delayed optimizer incurs an irreducible regret cost from inner-solver approximation error, and that gradient staleness contributes a quadratically growing transport error without bilevel-aware correction. Our algorithm, \textbf{IGT-OMD}, applies Implicit Gradient Transport to hypergradients within Online Mirror Descent, re-evaluating stale gradients at the current parameters using stored inner solutions. This method reduces transport error from a quadratic to a linear dependence on delay and achieves the first sublinear regret bound for delayed bilevel optimization with queue-length-adaptive step sizes. Controlled experiments provide a \emph{mechanistic fingerprint}: transport benefit is exactly $0.0\%$ ($p=1.00$) at unit delay and grows monotonically to $9.5\%$ at fifty rounds ($p<0.001$), isolating the correction's effect. On Linear Quadratic Regulator, Warcraft shortest-path, and Sinkhorn optimal transport, IGT-OMD reduces decision loss by $17$--$55\%$ relative to single-level baselines, with phase transitions matching the theory.

We propose non-parametric estimators for the average run length (ARL) and average detection delay (ADD) in quickest changepoint detection (QCD) under finite and irregular sequence lengths. Although ARL and ADD are widely used as optimality criteria in theoretical and simulation studies, their application to real-world datasets is hindered by limited and irregular sequence lengths. To address this issue, we propose non-parametric estimators for the ARL and ADD, termed KM-ARL and KM-ADD, by drawing an analogy between QCD and survival analysis to model detection probabilities under sequence truncation. We derive estimation bias bounds and prove that they are asymptotically unbiased unless extrapolation is required. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate their practical utility, enhancing robustness against limited and irregular sequence lengths, improving interpretability, and facilitating empirical, intuitive model selection. Our Python code is provided at https://github.com/TaikiMiyagawa/Kaplan-Meier-Average-Run-Length, offering ready-to-use implementations for practitioners.

Flight delays impose cascading operational and financial burdens across the aviation network, costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually by disrupting interconnected aircraft rotation systems. While prior machine learning approaches have demonstrated strong predictive performance, most treat upstream delays as static input variables rather than explicitly modeling how delays propagate dynamically through aircraft rotation chains, and none have deployed such systems alongside a live weather-aware conversational AI interface for end-user interaction. This paper presents FlightSense, an end-to-end MLOps platform for real-time flight delay prediction built through a progressive three-version feature engineering framework. Version 1 trains an XGBoost classifier on 11 schedule-based features establishing a baseline ROC AUC of 0.732 on 7.07 million BTS 2018 On-Time Performance records. Version 2 introduces 11 delay propagation features derived from aircraft rotation chains via tail-number tracking, yielding the dominant performance gain (AUC 0.732 to 0.875) and surpassing the single-stage XGBoost baseline reported by Zhou (2025). Version 3 integrates five NOAA meteorological features across 10 major U.S. airports, achieving a final test set AUC of 0.879. FlightSense is deployed as a production AWS MLOps pipeline incorporating live weather ingestion via Lambda, real-time SageMaker inference, an interactive Streamlit dashboard, and an Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro conversational assistant answering natural-language delay queries via a tool-use architecture.

We formally establish the equivalence between Observation Delay (OD) and Action Delay (AD) in cooperative partially observable multi-agent systems using observation-action histories. We show that both systems generate identical admissible joint-policy sets, and their induced state-action-observation trajectories are identical in distribution, leading to identical optimal solutions in Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs). This formally generalizes existing infinite-horizon single-agent results to any-horizon partially observable cooperative multi-agent problems with decentralized policy execution, and allows any mixed-delay configuration to be reduced to a pure OD system. We further prove that in Transition-Independent MDPs (TI-MDPs), the observation-action history reduces to a tractable minimal local augmented state. However, we show through numerical experiments that although the optimal solution spaces are structurally isomorphic, the practical learning dynamics are fundamentally different. First, using the minimal local augmented state, the equivalence no longer holds when transitions are not independent. Second, operational constraints and causal credit-assignment errors in Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms induce different learning behaviors across regimes. Finally, leveraging this structural equivalence to bypass these learning challenges, we demonstrate successful multi-agent zero-shot policy transfer from OD to AD, paving the way for unified, efficient solution methods in complex delayed systems.

Asynchronous stochastic gradient descent (SGD) enables scalable distributed training but suffers from gradient staleness. Existing mitigation strategies, such as delay-adaptive learning rates and staleness-aware filtering, typically attenuate or discard delayed gradients, introducing systematic bias: updates from simpler or faster-to-process samples are overrepresented, while gradients from more complex samples are delayed or suppressed. In contrast, prior approaches to data-dependent delays rely on a Lipschitz assumption that yields suboptimal rates or leave the smooth, convex case unaddressed. We propose a momentum-based asynchronous framework designed to preserve information from delayed gradients while mitigating the effects of staleness. We establish the first optimal convergence rates for data-dependent delays in both convex and non-convex smooth setups, providing a new result for asynchronous optimization under standard assumptions. Additionally, we derive robust learning-rate schedules that simplify hyperparameter tuning in practice.

We study linear dueling bandits in volatile environments characterized by the simultaneous presence of post-serving contexts, delayed feedback, and adversarial corruption. Feedback is subject to unknown stochastic or adversarial delays and a cumulative corruption budget $\mathcal{C}$. To address these challenges, we propose e RCDP-UCB, which integrates a learned approximator that predicts post-serving contexts from pre-serving information. It further employs an adaptive weighting strategy that clips feature vectors to mitigate the impact of corrupted and delayed observations simultaneously. Under standard regularity conditions and a parametric post-serving mapping, we rigorously establish that our algorithm is delay-regime-agnostic, achieving a regret upper bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d(\sqrt{T} + \mathcal{C} + \mathcal{D}))$, where $d$ is the total feature dimension and $\mathcal{D}$ encapsulates the delay complexity. Crucially, our analysis reveals an additive cost structure between corruption and delay, avoiding the multiplicative degradation typical of prior works. We further establish lower bounds that nearly match our upper bounds up to a $\sqrt{d}$ factor for adversarial delays in the absence of post-serving contexts. Code is available at https://github.com/youngmin0oh/rcdp-public.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are widely regarded as an energy-efficient paradigm for modeling and processing temporal and event-driven information. Incorporating delays in SNNs has been proven to be an effective mechanism for improving spike alignment in event-driven tasks. However, existing delay learning approaches predominantly assign static delays to individual synapses, resulting in a large number of delay parameters and limited adaptability to input-dependent activity dynamics. To this end, we propose a Congestion-Aware Dynamic Axonal Delay (CADAD) mechanism, which decomposes the delay into a channel-wise static base delay for temporal structuring and a global, activity-conditioned shift that dynamically regulates the state update rate under varying spike intensities. The delay parameters are learned using differentiable linear interpolation and discretized at inference time, preserving the benefits of dynamic delay modulation while incurring only minimal additional cost. Experiments on speech benchmarks, including the Spiking Heidelberg Dataset, Spiking Speech Commands, and Google Speech Commands, demonstrate that introducing congestion-aware delays into synaptic signal transmission effectively improves accuracy on temporal tasks, notably achieving 93.75% accuracy on SHD, 80.69% accuracy on SSC, and 95.58% on GSC-35, while reducing the parameter count by approximately 50% compared to state-of-the-art delay-based methods with the same architecture.

During the execution of Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) plans in real-life applications, the MAPF assumption that the fleet's movement is perfectly synchronized does not apply. Since one or more of the agents may become delayed due to internal or external factors, it is often necessary to use a robust execution method to avoid collisions caused by desynchronization. Robust execution methods - such as the Action Dependency Graph (ADG) - synchronize the execution of risky actions, but often at the expense of increased plan execution cost, because it may require some agents to wait for the delayed agents. In such cases, the execution's cost can be reduced while still preserving safety by finding a new plan either by rescheduling (reordering the agents at crossroads) or the more general replanning capable of finding new paths. However, these operations may be costly, and the new plan may not even lead to lower execution cost than the original plan: for example, the two plans may be the exact same. Therefore, we estimate the benefit that can be achieved by single replanning in scenarios with delayed agents given an immediate state of the execution with a fully connected feed-forward neural network. The input to the neural network is a set of newly designed ADG-based features describing the robust execution's state and the impact of potential delays, and the output is an estimated benefit achievable by replanning. We train and test the network on a new labeled dataset containing 12,000 experiments, and we show that our proposed method is capable of reducing the impact of delays by up to 94.6% of the achievable reduction.

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are rapidly gaining momentum as an alternative to conventional artificial neural networks in resource constrained edge systems. In this work, we continue a recent research line on recurrent SNNs where axonal delays are learned at runtime along with the other network parameters. The first proposed approach, dubbed DelRec, demonstrated the benefit of recurrent delay learning in SNNs. Here, we extend it by advocating the use of convolutional recurrent connections in conjunction with the DelRec delay learning mechanism. According to our tests on an audio classification task, this leads to a streamlined architecture with smaller memory footprint (around 99% savings in terms of number of recurrent parameters) and a much faster (52x) inference time, while retaining DelRec's accuracy. Our code is available at: https://github.com/luciozebendo/delrec_snn/tree/conv_delays

In Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-denied underwater environments, individual unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) suffer from unbounded dead-reckoning drift, making collaborative navigation (CN) crucial for accurate state estimation. However, the severe communication delay inherent in underwater acoustic channels poses serious challenges to real-time state estimation. Traditional filters, such as Extended Kalman Filters (EKFs) or Unscented Kalman Filters (UKFs), usually block the main control loop while waiting for delayed data, or effectively discard Out-of-Sequence Measurements (OOSMs), resulting in serious drift. To address this, we propose an Asynchronous Two-Speed Kalman Filter (TSKF) enhanced by a novel projection mechanism, which we term Variational History Distillation (VHD). The proposed architecture decouples the estimation process into two parallel threads: a fast-rate thread that utilizes Gaussian Process (GP) compensated dead reckoning to guarantee high-frequency real-time control, and a slow-rate thread dedicated to processing asynchronously delayed collaborative information. By introducing a Finite-Length Circular State Buffer (FLCSB), the algorithm applies delayed measurements to their corresponding historical states, and utilizes a VHD-based projection to fast-forward the correction to the current time without computationally heavy recalculations. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed TSKF maintains a trajectory error comparable to computationally intensive batch-optimization methods under severe delays (up to 30,s). Executing in sub-millisecond time, it significantly outperforms standard EKF/UKF. The results demonstrate an effective control, communication, and computing (3C) co-design that significantly enhances the resilience of autonomous marine automation systems.

We study grokking, the onset of generalization long after overfitting, in a classical ridge regression setting. We prove end-to-end grokking results for learning over-parameterized linear regression models using gradient descent with weight decay. Specifically, we prove that the following stages occur: (i) the model overfits the training data early during training; (ii) poor generalization persists long after overfitting has manifested; and (iii) the generalization error eventually becomes arbitrarily small. Moreover, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that grokking can be amplified or eliminated in a principled manner through proper hyperparameter tuning. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous quantitative bounds on the generalization delay (which we refer to as the "grokking time") in terms of training hyperparameters. Lastly, going beyond the linear setting, we empirically demonstrate that our quantitative bounds also capture the behavior of grokking on non-linear neural networks. Our results suggest that grokking is not an inherent failure mode of deep learning, but rather a consequence of specific training conditions, and thus does not require fundamental changes to the model architecture or learning algorithm to avoid.

Real-time audio-visual speech enhancement (AVSE) is a key enabler for immersive and interactive multimedia services, yet its performance is tightly constrained by network latency, uplink capacity, and computational delay. This paper presents the design, deployment, and evaluation of a complete cloud-edge-assisted AVSE system operating over a public 5G edge network. The system integrates CNN-based acoustic enhancement and OpenCV-based facial feature extraction with an LSTM fusion network to preserve temporal coherence, and is deployed on a Vodafone-compatible AWS Wavelength edge cloud. Through extensive stress testing, we analyze end-to-end performance under varying network load and adaptive multimedia profiles. Results show that compute placement at the network edge is critical for meeting real-time coherence constraints, and that uplink capacity is often the dominant bottleneck for interactive AVSE services. Only 5G and wired Ethernet consistently satisfied the required communication delay bound for uncompressed audio-video chunks, while aggressive compression reduced payload sizes by up to 80% with negligible perceptual degradation, enabling robust operation under constrained conditions. We further demonstrate a fundamental trade-off between processing latency and enhancement quality, where reduced model complexity lowers delay but degrades reconstruction performance in low-SNR scenarios. Our findings indicate that public 5G edge environments can sustain real-time, interactive AVSE workloads when network and compute resources are carefully orchestrated, although performance margins remain tighter than in dedicated infrastructures. The architectural insights derived from this study provide practical guidelines for the design of delay-sensitive multimedia and perceptual enhancement services on emerging 5G edge-cloud platforms.

In standard reinforcement learning (RL) settings, the interaction between the agent and the environment is typically modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP), which assumes that the agent observes the system state instantaneously, selects an action without delay, and executes it immediately. In real-world dynamic environments, such as cyber-physical systems, this assumption often breaks down due to delays in the interaction between the agent and the system. These delays can vary stochastically over time and are typically unobservable when deciding on an action. Existing methods deal with this uncertainty conservatively by assuming a known fixed upper bound on the delay, even if the delay is often much lower. In this work, we introduce the interaction layer, a general framework that enables agents to adaptively handle unobservable and time-varying delays. Specifically, the agent generates a matrix of possible future actions, anticipating a horizon of potential delays, to handle both unpredictable delays and lost action packets sent over networks. Building on this framework, we develop a model-based algorithm, Actor-Critic with Delay Adaptation (ACDA), which dynamically adjusts to delay patterns. Our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches across a wide range of locomotion benchmark environments, including real-world measured delays.

Neuromorphic computing aims to improve the efficiency of artificial neural networks by taking inspiration from biological neurons and leveraging temporal sparsity, spatial sparsity, and compute near/in memory. Although these approaches have shown efficiency gains, training these spiking neural networks (SNN) remains difficult. The original attempts at converting trained conventional analog neural networks (ANN) to SNNs used the rate of binary spikes to represent neuron activations. This required many simulation time steps per inference, which degraded efficiency. Intel's Loihi 2 is a neuromorphic platform that supports graded spikes which can be used to represent changes in neuron activation. In this work, we use Loihi 2's graded spikes to develop a method for converting ANN networks to spiking networks, which exploits temporal and spatial sparsity. We evaluated the performance of this network on Loihi 2 and compared it to NVIDIA's Jetson Xavier edge AI platform. The results show that neuromorphic approaches achieve significant improvements in efficiency and latency (energy-delay product) over existing solutions.

Increasingly, recommender systems are tasked with improving users' long-term satisfaction. In this context, we study a content exploration task, which we formalize as a bandit problem with delayed rewards. There is an apparent trade-off in choosing the learning signal: waiting for the full reward to become available might take several weeks, slowing the rate of learning, whereas using short-term proxy rewards reflects the actual long-term goal only imperfectly. First, we develop a predictive model of delayed rewards that incorporates all information obtained to date. Rewards as well as shorter-term surrogate outcomes are combined through a Bayesian filter to obtain a probabilistic belief. Second, we devise a bandit algorithm that quickly learns to identify content aligned with long-term success using this new predictive model. We prove a regret bound for our algorithm that depends on the Value of Progressive Feedback, an information-theoretic metric that captures the quality of short-term leading indicators that are observed prior to the long-term reward. We apply our approach to a podcast recommendation problem, where we seek to recommend shows that users engage with repeatedly over two months. We empirically validate that our approach significantly outperforms methods that optimize for short-term proxies or rely solely on delayed rewards, as demonstrated by an A/B test in a recommendation system that serves hundreds of millions of users.